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000
FXUS64 KHUN 301512 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1012 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND REDUCE POP LATE.

&&

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE SOUTHWEST
INTO NW ALABAMA TOWARD TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. MUCH DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TOWARDS CULLMAN AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES
IN AL.

MODELS PUSH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN
FACT...THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY HELP TO
INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD TRY TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. IN ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN ALOFT WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING
HOURS VIA ADVECTION ALOFT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS
MORNING IN THE LOWER 70S...BEFORE DEWPOINTS QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO THE LOWER 60S DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH A VERY WEAK FRONT STILL MOVING THROUGH...CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 3 OR 4
PM...MAINLY IN CULLMAN...MORGAN...AND DEKALB COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD
MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT DAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 657 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING S/SE THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AS OF
1145Z THIS MORNING. A DECK OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-3000
FT HAS FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15-16Z AS THE
FRONT ENTERS THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING FORMING NEAR
EITHER TERMINAL AS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301512 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1012 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND REDUCE POP LATE.

&&

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE SOUTHWEST
INTO NW ALABAMA TOWARD TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. MUCH DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TOWARDS CULLMAN AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES
IN AL.

MODELS PUSH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN
FACT...THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY HELP TO
INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD TRY TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. IN ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN ALOFT WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING
HOURS VIA ADVECTION ALOFT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS
MORNING IN THE LOWER 70S...BEFORE DEWPOINTS QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO THE LOWER 60S DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH A VERY WEAK FRONT STILL MOVING THROUGH...CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 3 OR 4
PM...MAINLY IN CULLMAN...MORGAN...AND DEKALB COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD
MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT DAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 657 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING S/SE THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AS OF
1145Z THIS MORNING. A DECK OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-3000
FT HAS FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15-16Z AS THE
FRONT ENTERS THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING FORMING NEAR
EITHER TERMINAL AS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301157
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
657 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...
WITH 09Z SURFACE OBS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH
EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY AROUND MIDNIGHT...
ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF AN SPS. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A MID- LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX -- TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/S OK TODAY AS A PAIR OF
VORTICES DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH STRONG
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NORTHERLY PREFRONTAL FLOW
AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AS THE TRUE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING -- IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PLACE THE REGION BENEATH A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD REGION OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- WHICH COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON -- WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THAT SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
RAINFALL THREAT CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...ALTHOUGH A FEW REPORTS OF UPPER 50S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...BUT MAINLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGER BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AS SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONALLY
ORIENTED ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF STRONGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM A WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS -- COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION -- WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING S/SE THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AS OF
1145Z THIS MORNING. A DECK OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-3000
FT HAS FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15-16Z AS THE
FRONT ENTERS THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING FORMING NEAR
EITHER TERMINAL AS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301157
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
657 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...
WITH 09Z SURFACE OBS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH
EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY AROUND MIDNIGHT...
ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF AN SPS. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A MID- LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX -- TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/S OK TODAY AS A PAIR OF
VORTICES DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH STRONG
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NORTHERLY PREFRONTAL FLOW
AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AS THE TRUE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING -- IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PLACE THE REGION BENEATH A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD REGION OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- WHICH COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON -- WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THAT SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
RAINFALL THREAT CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...ALTHOUGH A FEW REPORTS OF UPPER 50S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...BUT MAINLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGER BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AS SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONALLY
ORIENTED ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF STRONGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM A WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS -- COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION -- WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING S/SE THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AS OF
1145Z THIS MORNING. A DECK OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-3000
FT HAS FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15-16Z AS THE
FRONT ENTERS THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING FORMING NEAR
EITHER TERMINAL AS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301157
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
657 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...
WITH 09Z SURFACE OBS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH
EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY AROUND MIDNIGHT...
ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF AN SPS. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A MID- LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX -- TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/S OK TODAY AS A PAIR OF
VORTICES DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH STRONG
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NORTHERLY PREFRONTAL FLOW
AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AS THE TRUE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING -- IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PLACE THE REGION BENEATH A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD REGION OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- WHICH COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON -- WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THAT SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
RAINFALL THREAT CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...ALTHOUGH A FEW REPORTS OF UPPER 50S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...BUT MAINLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGER BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AS SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONALLY
ORIENTED ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF STRONGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM A WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS -- COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION -- WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING S/SE THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AS OF
1145Z THIS MORNING. A DECK OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-3000
FT HAS FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15-16Z AS THE
FRONT ENTERS THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING FORMING NEAR
EITHER TERMINAL AS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301157
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
657 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...
WITH 09Z SURFACE OBS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH
EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY AROUND MIDNIGHT...
ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF AN SPS. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A MID- LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX -- TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/S OK TODAY AS A PAIR OF
VORTICES DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH STRONG
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NORTHERLY PREFRONTAL FLOW
AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AS THE TRUE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING -- IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PLACE THE REGION BENEATH A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD REGION OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- WHICH COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON -- WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THAT SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
RAINFALL THREAT CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...ALTHOUGH A FEW REPORTS OF UPPER 50S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...BUT MAINLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGER BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AS SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONALLY
ORIENTED ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF STRONGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM A WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS -- COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION -- WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING S/SE THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AS OF
1145Z THIS MORNING. A DECK OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-3000
FT HAS FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15-16Z AS THE
FRONT ENTERS THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING FORMING NEAR
EITHER TERMINAL AS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301157
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
657 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...
WITH 09Z SURFACE OBS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH
EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY AROUND MIDNIGHT...
ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF AN SPS. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A MID- LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX -- TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/S OK TODAY AS A PAIR OF
VORTICES DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH STRONG
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NORTHERLY PREFRONTAL FLOW
AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AS THE TRUE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING -- IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PLACE THE REGION BENEATH A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD REGION OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- WHICH COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON -- WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THAT SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
RAINFALL THREAT CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...ALTHOUGH A FEW REPORTS OF UPPER 50S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...BUT MAINLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGER BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AS SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONALLY
ORIENTED ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF STRONGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM A WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS -- COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION -- WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING S/SE THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AS OF
1145Z THIS MORNING. A DECK OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-3000
FT HAS FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15-16Z AS THE
FRONT ENTERS THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING FORMING NEAR
EITHER TERMINAL AS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 301140
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
640 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SO...ANOTHER SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S...WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY BEFORE
THE RAIN RELIEF CAN WORK INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTH MAY REACH OR
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GET
GOING THEY WILL LIKELY CLUSTER AT TIMES. IT IS WHEN THEY CLUSTER
THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY TO GIVE
ANY EXACT LOCATION OR EVEN TIME FRAME WOULD BE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME. ALL OF THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A FEATURE THAT IS MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

THAT FEATURE WOULD BE A COLD FRONT. NO REALLY ITS A COLD FRONT.
OF COURSE IT IS LATE JULY SO REALLY ALL A COLD FRONT WILL DO THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR IS PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF.
AT LEAST WITH THIS IT LOOKS LIKE OUR MID 70S SUMMER NIGHT DREAMS
MAY BE A THING OF THE PAST AS DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHAT IS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSING IS A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF
DRY AIR IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WITH THAT SAID THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT COULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. REALLY
DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE HAD ALMOST ZERO
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 4 NIGHTS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF...MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SO WILL JUST GO WITH MORE
OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TODAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AT KMGM AND KTOI. EXPECT AMENDMENTS WILL BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND 00Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.

05/MA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-DALLAS-GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
SUMTER.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301140
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
640 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SO...ANOTHER SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S...WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY BEFORE
THE RAIN RELIEF CAN WORK INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTH MAY REACH OR
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GET
GOING THEY WILL LIKELY CLUSTER AT TIMES. IT IS WHEN THEY CLUSTER
THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY TO GIVE
ANY EXACT LOCATION OR EVEN TIME FRAME WOULD BE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME. ALL OF THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A FEATURE THAT IS MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

THAT FEATURE WOULD BE A COLD FRONT. NO REALLY ITS A COLD FRONT.
OF COURSE IT IS LATE JULY SO REALLY ALL A COLD FRONT WILL DO THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR IS PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF.
AT LEAST WITH THIS IT LOOKS LIKE OUR MID 70S SUMMER NIGHT DREAMS
MAY BE A THING OF THE PAST AS DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHAT IS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSING IS A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF
DRY AIR IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WITH THAT SAID THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT COULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. REALLY
DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE HAD ALMOST ZERO
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 4 NIGHTS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF...MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SO WILL JUST GO WITH MORE
OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TODAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AT KMGM AND KTOI. EXPECT AMENDMENTS WILL BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND 00Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.

05/MA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-DALLAS-GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
SUMTER.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301033
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...
WITH 09Z SURFACE OBS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH
EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY AROUND MIDNIGHT...
ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF AN SPS. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A MID- LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX -- TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/S OK TODAY AS A PAIR OF
VORTICES DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH STRONG
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NORTHERLY PREFRONTAL FLOW
AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AS THE TRUE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING -- IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PLACE THE REGION BENEATH A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD REGION OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- WHICH COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON -- WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THAT SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
RAINFALL THREAT CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...ALTHOUGH A FEW REPORTS OF UPPER 50S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...BUT MAINLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGER BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AS SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONALLY
ORIENTED ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF STRONGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM A WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS -- COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION -- WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1217 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...ISOL -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 15Z-17Z AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROCEEDS SOUTHEAST, BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE. FOG FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE BTWN 10Z-13Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION BTWN 12-15Z WHICH SHOULD CHANGE WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED TO N/NE.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    92  66  92  65 /  20  10   0   0
SHOALS        92  66  92  65 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      89  65  89  64 /  30  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  87  64  90  62 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   92  66  91  67 /  30  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    91  63  90  63 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301033
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...
WITH 09Z SURFACE OBS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH
EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY AROUND MIDNIGHT...
ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF AN SPS. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A MID- LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX -- TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/S OK TODAY AS A PAIR OF
VORTICES DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH STRONG
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NORTHERLY PREFRONTAL FLOW
AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AS THE TRUE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING -- IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PLACE THE REGION BENEATH A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD REGION OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- WHICH COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON -- WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THAT SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
RAINFALL THREAT CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...ALTHOUGH A FEW REPORTS OF UPPER 50S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...BUT MAINLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGER BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AS SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONALLY
ORIENTED ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF STRONGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM A WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS -- COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION -- WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1217 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...ISOL -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 15Z-17Z AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROCEEDS SOUTHEAST, BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE. FOG FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE BTWN 10Z-13Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION BTWN 12-15Z WHICH SHOULD CHANGE WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED TO N/NE.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    92  66  92  65 /  20  10   0   0
SHOALS        92  66  92  65 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      89  65  89  64 /  30  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  87  64  90  62 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   92  66  91  67 /  30  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    91  63  90  63 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301033
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...
WITH 09Z SURFACE OBS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH
EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY AROUND MIDNIGHT...
ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF AN SPS. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A MID- LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX -- TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/S OK TODAY AS A PAIR OF
VORTICES DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH STRONG
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NORTHERLY PREFRONTAL FLOW
AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AS THE TRUE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING -- IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PLACE THE REGION BENEATH A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD REGION OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- WHICH COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON -- WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THAT SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
RAINFALL THREAT CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...ALTHOUGH A FEW REPORTS OF UPPER 50S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...BUT MAINLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGER BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AS SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONALLY
ORIENTED ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF STRONGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM A WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS -- COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION -- WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1217 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...ISOL -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 15Z-17Z AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROCEEDS SOUTHEAST, BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE. FOG FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE BTWN 10Z-13Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION BTWN 12-15Z WHICH SHOULD CHANGE WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED TO N/NE.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    92  66  92  65 /  20  10   0   0
SHOALS        92  66  92  65 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      89  65  89  64 /  30  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  87  64  90  62 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   92  66  91  67 /  30  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    91  63  90  63 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 300922
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
422 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...UPPER ENERGY SWEEPING AROUND
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL DEEPEN AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS. THIS ENERGY WILL ALSO HELP TO PUSH
A DRIER AIRMASS FROM OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MERGING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TODAY.

WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING TODAY...AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE FA ATTM...AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA TO DEVELOP
TODAY...WITH LIKELY POPS. WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
COVERAGE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THIS
CASE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF NUMBERS.

WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AT NOON-TIME...FEEL THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE 104-108 DEGREE
RANGE BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER CUTS OFF INCOMING INSOLATION.
ALSO...WITH THE HOT/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE FA (CAPES
GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 3000-4000J/KG RANGE)...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
CLEARING SKIES COMING WITH THE END OF THE THUNDERSTORMS (PLUS WHAT
DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO HEAD SOUTH OF THE FA)...TEMPS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE
FA.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. /16

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...EASTERN NOSE OF UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS TROF SETS UP FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THE EVOLVING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF/FRONT TO SETTLE TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. THIS PRESENTS A
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
THE DIVIDING LINE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 AND LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
INTERSTATE. THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO ADVERTISED IN THE LATEST
WEATHER MODELS...SO WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES...NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE. A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT AND LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO SEASONAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF JULY...NEAR 93 OVER THE INTERIOR. UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS...POSSIBLY UPPER
60S OVER THE INTERIOR...WHILE NUMBERS REMAIN MUGGY ALONG THE COAST IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE 70S. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW. TROF
OVER THE EASTERN TO SOUTHEAST US AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WEAK WAVES OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST NORTHEAST ALONG IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVE A CHALLENGE FOR THE
PLACEMENT OF RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AXIS STAYING IN A NEARLY FIXED POSITION...HAVE THE HIGHER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 WITH THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES RAINFREE. LIGHT WIND PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
WITH THE SURFACE TROF MEANDERING OVER THE AREA. MOVING INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MID LEVEL IMPULSES CAUGHT UP IN THE HIGH
LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TROF TO THE EAST AND THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH
THE COASTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE
DURING THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK...DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ENERGY ALOFT SUGGESTS MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MOSTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/TROF
SETTING UP FROM THE CAROLINAS TO ACROSS LOUISIANA WHILE THE ECMWF IS TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS BOUNDARY...MOVING EAST OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI TO RED RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE OUTLOOK
WITH SURFACE HIGH BEING MORE DOMINANT OVER THE GULF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR...UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S COAST. LOWS LIFTING INTO THE MID 70S INTERIOR WITH LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE BEACHES...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
30.12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A LESS HUMID
AIRMASS AND SMALL CHANCE OF LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT. /16

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TODAY...PUSHING A SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
STALLS...CREATING A VARIABLE FLOW OVER MAINLY OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE FA. THIS TROUGH/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE REGAINING CONTROL AND
BRINGING BACK A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  77  93  71  93 /  60  30  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   95  77  91  75  92 /  70  50  40  20  20
DESTIN      91  78  89  79  91 /  70  60  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   96  72  93  69  94 /  60  30  30  10  20
WAYNESBORO  96  70  94  70  94 /  50  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      96  71  93  69  94 /  60  30  20  10  10
CRESTVIEW   96  75  93  71  94 /  70  40  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300922
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
422 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...UPPER ENERGY SWEEPING AROUND
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL DEEPEN AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS. THIS ENERGY WILL ALSO HELP TO PUSH
A DRIER AIRMASS FROM OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MERGING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TODAY.

WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING TODAY...AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE FA ATTM...AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA TO DEVELOP
TODAY...WITH LIKELY POPS. WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
COVERAGE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THIS
CASE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF NUMBERS.

WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AT NOON-TIME...FEEL THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE 104-108 DEGREE
RANGE BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER CUTS OFF INCOMING INSOLATION.
ALSO...WITH THE HOT/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE FA (CAPES
GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 3000-4000J/KG RANGE)...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
CLEARING SKIES COMING WITH THE END OF THE THUNDERSTORMS (PLUS WHAT
DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO HEAD SOUTH OF THE FA)...TEMPS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE
FA.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. /16

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...EASTERN NOSE OF UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS TROF SETS UP FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THE EVOLVING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF/FRONT TO SETTLE TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. THIS PRESENTS A
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
THE DIVIDING LINE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 AND LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
INTERSTATE. THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO ADVERTISED IN THE LATEST
WEATHER MODELS...SO WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES...NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE. A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT AND LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO SEASONAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF JULY...NEAR 93 OVER THE INTERIOR. UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS...POSSIBLY UPPER
60S OVER THE INTERIOR...WHILE NUMBERS REMAIN MUGGY ALONG THE COAST IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE 70S. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW. TROF
OVER THE EASTERN TO SOUTHEAST US AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WEAK WAVES OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST NORTHEAST ALONG IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVE A CHALLENGE FOR THE
PLACEMENT OF RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AXIS STAYING IN A NEARLY FIXED POSITION...HAVE THE HIGHER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 WITH THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES RAINFREE. LIGHT WIND PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
WITH THE SURFACE TROF MEANDERING OVER THE AREA. MOVING INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MID LEVEL IMPULSES CAUGHT UP IN THE HIGH
LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TROF TO THE EAST AND THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH
THE COASTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE
DURING THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK...DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ENERGY ALOFT SUGGESTS MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MOSTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/TROF
SETTING UP FROM THE CAROLINAS TO ACROSS LOUISIANA WHILE THE ECMWF IS TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS BOUNDARY...MOVING EAST OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI TO RED RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE OUTLOOK
WITH SURFACE HIGH BEING MORE DOMINANT OVER THE GULF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR...UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S COAST. LOWS LIFTING INTO THE MID 70S INTERIOR WITH LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE BEACHES...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
30.12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A LESS HUMID
AIRMASS AND SMALL CHANCE OF LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT. /16

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TODAY...PUSHING A SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
STALLS...CREATING A VARIABLE FLOW OVER MAINLY OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE FA. THIS TROUGH/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE REGAINING CONTROL AND
BRINGING BACK A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  77  93  71  93 /  60  30  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   95  77  91  75  92 /  70  50  40  20  20
DESTIN      91  78  89  79  91 /  70  60  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   96  72  93  69  94 /  60  30  30  10  20
WAYNESBORO  96  70  94  70  94 /  50  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      96  71  93  69  94 /  60  30  20  10  10
CRESTVIEW   96  75  93  71  94 /  70  40  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300922
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
422 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...UPPER ENERGY SWEEPING AROUND
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL DEEPEN AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS. THIS ENERGY WILL ALSO HELP TO PUSH
A DRIER AIRMASS FROM OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MERGING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TODAY.

WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING TODAY...AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE FA ATTM...AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA TO DEVELOP
TODAY...WITH LIKELY POPS. WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
COVERAGE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THIS
CASE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF NUMBERS.

WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AT NOON-TIME...FEEL THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE 104-108 DEGREE
RANGE BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER CUTS OFF INCOMING INSOLATION.
ALSO...WITH THE HOT/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE FA (CAPES
GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 3000-4000J/KG RANGE)...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
CLEARING SKIES COMING WITH THE END OF THE THUNDERSTORMS (PLUS WHAT
DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO HEAD SOUTH OF THE FA)...TEMPS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE
FA.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. /16

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...EASTERN NOSE OF UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS TROF SETS UP FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THE EVOLVING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF/FRONT TO SETTLE TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. THIS PRESENTS A
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
THE DIVIDING LINE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 AND LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
INTERSTATE. THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO ADVERTISED IN THE LATEST
WEATHER MODELS...SO WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES...NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE. A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT AND LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO SEASONAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF JULY...NEAR 93 OVER THE INTERIOR. UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS...POSSIBLY UPPER
60S OVER THE INTERIOR...WHILE NUMBERS REMAIN MUGGY ALONG THE COAST IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE 70S. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW. TROF
OVER THE EASTERN TO SOUTHEAST US AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WEAK WAVES OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST NORTHEAST ALONG IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVE A CHALLENGE FOR THE
PLACEMENT OF RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AXIS STAYING IN A NEARLY FIXED POSITION...HAVE THE HIGHER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 WITH THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES RAINFREE. LIGHT WIND PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
WITH THE SURFACE TROF MEANDERING OVER THE AREA. MOVING INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MID LEVEL IMPULSES CAUGHT UP IN THE HIGH
LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TROF TO THE EAST AND THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH
THE COASTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE
DURING THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK...DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ENERGY ALOFT SUGGESTS MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MOSTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/TROF
SETTING UP FROM THE CAROLINAS TO ACROSS LOUISIANA WHILE THE ECMWF IS TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS BOUNDARY...MOVING EAST OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI TO RED RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE OUTLOOK
WITH SURFACE HIGH BEING MORE DOMINANT OVER THE GULF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR...UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S COAST. LOWS LIFTING INTO THE MID 70S INTERIOR WITH LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE BEACHES...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
30.12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A LESS HUMID
AIRMASS AND SMALL CHANCE OF LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT. /16

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TODAY...PUSHING A SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
STALLS...CREATING A VARIABLE FLOW OVER MAINLY OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE FA. THIS TROUGH/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE REGAINING CONTROL AND
BRINGING BACK A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  77  93  71  93 /  60  30  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   95  77  91  75  92 /  70  50  40  20  20
DESTIN      91  78  89  79  91 /  70  60  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   96  72  93  69  94 /  60  30  30  10  20
WAYNESBORO  96  70  94  70  94 /  50  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      96  71  93  69  94 /  60  30  20  10  10
CRESTVIEW   96  75  93  71  94 /  70  40  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300922
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
422 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...UPPER ENERGY SWEEPING AROUND
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL DEEPEN AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS. THIS ENERGY WILL ALSO HELP TO PUSH
A DRIER AIRMASS FROM OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MERGING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TODAY.

WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING TODAY...AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE FA ATTM...AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA TO DEVELOP
TODAY...WITH LIKELY POPS. WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
COVERAGE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THIS
CASE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF NUMBERS.

WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AT NOON-TIME...FEEL THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE 104-108 DEGREE
RANGE BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER CUTS OFF INCOMING INSOLATION.
ALSO...WITH THE HOT/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE FA (CAPES
GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 3000-4000J/KG RANGE)...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
CLEARING SKIES COMING WITH THE END OF THE THUNDERSTORMS (PLUS WHAT
DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO HEAD SOUTH OF THE FA)...TEMPS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE
FA.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. /16

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...EASTERN NOSE OF UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS TROF SETS UP FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THE EVOLVING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF/FRONT TO SETTLE TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. THIS PRESENTS A
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
THE DIVIDING LINE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 AND LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
INTERSTATE. THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO ADVERTISED IN THE LATEST
WEATHER MODELS...SO WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES...NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE. A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT AND LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO SEASONAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF JULY...NEAR 93 OVER THE INTERIOR. UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS...POSSIBLY UPPER
60S OVER THE INTERIOR...WHILE NUMBERS REMAIN MUGGY ALONG THE COAST IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE 70S. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW. TROF
OVER THE EASTERN TO SOUTHEAST US AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WEAK WAVES OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST NORTHEAST ALONG IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVE A CHALLENGE FOR THE
PLACEMENT OF RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AXIS STAYING IN A NEARLY FIXED POSITION...HAVE THE HIGHER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 WITH THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES RAINFREE. LIGHT WIND PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
WITH THE SURFACE TROF MEANDERING OVER THE AREA. MOVING INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MID LEVEL IMPULSES CAUGHT UP IN THE HIGH
LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TROF TO THE EAST AND THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH
THE COASTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE
DURING THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK...DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ENERGY ALOFT SUGGESTS MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MOSTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/TROF
SETTING UP FROM THE CAROLINAS TO ACROSS LOUISIANA WHILE THE ECMWF IS TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS BOUNDARY...MOVING EAST OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI TO RED RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE OUTLOOK
WITH SURFACE HIGH BEING MORE DOMINANT OVER THE GULF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR...UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S COAST. LOWS LIFTING INTO THE MID 70S INTERIOR WITH LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE BEACHES...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
30.12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A LESS HUMID
AIRMASS AND SMALL CHANCE OF LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT. /16

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TODAY...PUSHING A SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
STALLS...CREATING A VARIABLE FLOW OVER MAINLY OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE FA. THIS TROUGH/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE REGAINING CONTROL AND
BRINGING BACK A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  77  93  71  93 /  60  30  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   95  77  91  75  92 /  70  50  40  20  20
DESTIN      91  78  89  79  91 /  70  60  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   96  72  93  69  94 /  60  30  30  10  20
WAYNESBORO  96  70  94  70  94 /  50  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      96  71  93  69  94 /  60  30  20  10  10
CRESTVIEW   96  75  93  71  94 /  70  40  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300829
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SO...ANOTHER SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S...WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY BEFORE
THE RAIN RELIEF CAN WORK INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTH MAY REACH OR
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GET
GOING THEY WILL LIKELY CLUSTER AT TIMES. IT IS WHEN THEY CLUSTER
THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY TO GIVE
ANY EXACT LOCATION OR EVEN TIME FRAME WOULD BE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME. ALL OF THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A FEATURE THAT IS MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

THAT FEATURE WOULD BE A COLD FRONT. NO REALLY ITS A COLD FRONT.
OF COURSE IT IS LATE JULY SO REALLY ALL A COLD FRONT WILL DO THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR IS PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF.
AT LEAST WITH THIS IT LOOKS LIKE OUR MID 70S SUMMER NIGHT DREAMS
MAY BE A THING OF THE PAST AS DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHAT IS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSING IS A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF
DRY AIR IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WITH THAT SAID THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT COULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. REALLY
DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE HAD ALMOST ZERO
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 4 NIGHTS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF...MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SO WILL JUST GO WITH MORE
OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA COULD IMPACT
TOI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
IMPACT OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR FOG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES AT 8-12KTS.

14


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  68  90  66  91 /  40  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    94  70  91  67  91 /  50  20  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  69  92  70  92 /  40  20  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  93  69  93 /  50  20  10   0   0
CALERA      94  70  92  68  91 /  60  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      94  72  91  71  90 /  60  40  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  97  73  93  72  94 /  70  40  20  10  20
TROY        96  73  93  72  92 /  60  50  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-DALLAS-GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
SUMTER.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300829
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SO...ANOTHER SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S...WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY BEFORE
THE RAIN RELIEF CAN WORK INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTH MAY REACH OR
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GET
GOING THEY WILL LIKELY CLUSTER AT TIMES. IT IS WHEN THEY CLUSTER
THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY TO GIVE
ANY EXACT LOCATION OR EVEN TIME FRAME WOULD BE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME. ALL OF THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A FEATURE THAT IS MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

THAT FEATURE WOULD BE A COLD FRONT. NO REALLY ITS A COLD FRONT.
OF COURSE IT IS LATE JULY SO REALLY ALL A COLD FRONT WILL DO THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR IS PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF.
AT LEAST WITH THIS IT LOOKS LIKE OUR MID 70S SUMMER NIGHT DREAMS
MAY BE A THING OF THE PAST AS DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHAT IS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSING IS A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF
DRY AIR IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WITH THAT SAID THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT COULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. REALLY
DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE HAD ALMOST ZERO
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 4 NIGHTS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF...MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SO WILL JUST GO WITH MORE
OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA COULD IMPACT
TOI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
IMPACT OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR FOG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES AT 8-12KTS.

14


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  68  90  66  91 /  40  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    94  70  91  67  91 /  50  20  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  69  92  70  92 /  40  20  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  93  69  93 /  50  20  10   0   0
CALERA      94  70  92  68  91 /  60  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      94  72  91  71  90 /  60  40  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  97  73  93  72  94 /  70  40  20  10  20
TROY        96  73  93  72  92 /  60  50  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-DALLAS-GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
SUMTER.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300829
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SO...ANOTHER SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S...WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY BEFORE
THE RAIN RELIEF CAN WORK INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTH MAY REACH OR
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GET
GOING THEY WILL LIKELY CLUSTER AT TIMES. IT IS WHEN THEY CLUSTER
THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY TO GIVE
ANY EXACT LOCATION OR EVEN TIME FRAME WOULD BE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME. ALL OF THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A FEATURE THAT IS MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

THAT FEATURE WOULD BE A COLD FRONT. NO REALLY ITS A COLD FRONT.
OF COURSE IT IS LATE JULY SO REALLY ALL A COLD FRONT WILL DO THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR IS PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF.
AT LEAST WITH THIS IT LOOKS LIKE OUR MID 70S SUMMER NIGHT DREAMS
MAY BE A THING OF THE PAST AS DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHAT IS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSING IS A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF
DRY AIR IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WITH THAT SAID THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT COULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. REALLY
DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE HAD ALMOST ZERO
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 4 NIGHTS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF...MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SO WILL JUST GO WITH MORE
OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA COULD IMPACT
TOI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
IMPACT OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR FOG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES AT 8-12KTS.

14


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  68  90  66  91 /  40  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    94  70  91  67  91 /  50  20  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  69  92  70  92 /  40  20  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  93  69  93 /  50  20  10   0   0
CALERA      94  70  92  68  91 /  60  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      94  72  91  71  90 /  60  40  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  97  73  93  72  94 /  70  40  20  10  20
TROY        96  73  93  72  92 /  60  50  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-DALLAS-GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
SUMTER.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300829
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SO...ANOTHER SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S...WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY BEFORE
THE RAIN RELIEF CAN WORK INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTH MAY REACH OR
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GET
GOING THEY WILL LIKELY CLUSTER AT TIMES. IT IS WHEN THEY CLUSTER
THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY TO GIVE
ANY EXACT LOCATION OR EVEN TIME FRAME WOULD BE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME. ALL OF THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A FEATURE THAT IS MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

THAT FEATURE WOULD BE A COLD FRONT. NO REALLY ITS A COLD FRONT.
OF COURSE IT IS LATE JULY SO REALLY ALL A COLD FRONT WILL DO THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR IS PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF.
AT LEAST WITH THIS IT LOOKS LIKE OUR MID 70S SUMMER NIGHT DREAMS
MAY BE A THING OF THE PAST AS DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHAT IS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSING IS A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF
DRY AIR IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WITH THAT SAID THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT COULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. REALLY
DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE HAD ALMOST ZERO
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 4 NIGHTS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF...MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SO WILL JUST GO WITH MORE
OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA COULD IMPACT
TOI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
IMPACT OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR FOG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES AT 8-12KTS.

14


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  68  90  66  91 /  40  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    94  70  91  67  91 /  50  20  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  69  92  70  92 /  40  20  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  93  69  93 /  50  20  10   0   0
CALERA      94  70  92  68  91 /  60  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      94  72  91  71  90 /  60  40  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  97  73  93  72  94 /  70  40  20  10  20
TROY        96  73  93  72  92 /  60  50  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-DALLAS-GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
SUMTER.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300829
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SO...ANOTHER SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S...WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY BEFORE
THE RAIN RELIEF CAN WORK INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTH MAY REACH OR
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GET
GOING THEY WILL LIKELY CLUSTER AT TIMES. IT IS WHEN THEY CLUSTER
THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY TO GIVE
ANY EXACT LOCATION OR EVEN TIME FRAME WOULD BE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME. ALL OF THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A FEATURE THAT IS MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

THAT FEATURE WOULD BE A COLD FRONT. NO REALLY ITS A COLD FRONT.
OF COURSE IT IS LATE JULY SO REALLY ALL A COLD FRONT WILL DO THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR IS PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF.
AT LEAST WITH THIS IT LOOKS LIKE OUR MID 70S SUMMER NIGHT DREAMS
MAY BE A THING OF THE PAST AS DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHAT IS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSING IS A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF
DRY AIR IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WITH THAT SAID THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT COULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. REALLY
DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE HAD ALMOST ZERO
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 4 NIGHTS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF...MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SO WILL JUST GO WITH MORE
OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA COULD IMPACT
TOI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
IMPACT OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR FOG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES AT 8-12KTS.

14


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  68  90  66  91 /  40  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    94  70  91  67  91 /  50  20  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  69  92  70  92 /  40  20  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  93  69  93 /  50  20  10   0   0
CALERA      94  70  92  68  91 /  60  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      94  72  91  71  90 /  60  40  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  97  73  93  72  94 /  70  40  20  10  20
TROY        96  73  93  72  92 /  60  50  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-DALLAS-GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
SUMTER.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300517
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1217 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 904 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATING FROM A COOL FRONT LOCATED NEAR
THE OH/TN/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE HAVE PROPAGATED SOUTH TO CENTRAL TN AS
OF 0145Z. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, INSTABILITY HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD
LIKELY EXPLAIN THE STORMS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH AS THEY APPROACH
THE TN VALLEY. HI RES MODEL OUTPUT IS DEPICTING THE POSSIBILITY THAT
THESE SCT STORMS COULD STILL IMPACT AT LEAST THE NW PORTIONS OF AL.
HOWEVER, WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATION, WILL
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT.

DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS, HAVE RAISED THE DEWPOINT AND
OVERNIGHT LOW FORECAST. ONE OTHER LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE FOG FORMATION
WHEN THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES OR THINS. AS A RESULT,
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR VALLEYS, RIVERS,
AND LAKES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

ISOL -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 15Z-17Z AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PROCEEDS SOUTHEAST, BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE. FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE BTWN 10Z-13Z
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE REGION BTWN 12-15Z WHICH SHOULD CHANGE WIND DIRECTION/SPEED TO
N/NE.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300517
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1217 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 904 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATING FROM A COOL FRONT LOCATED NEAR
THE OH/TN/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE HAVE PROPAGATED SOUTH TO CENTRAL TN AS
OF 0145Z. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, INSTABILITY HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD
LIKELY EXPLAIN THE STORMS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH AS THEY APPROACH
THE TN VALLEY. HI RES MODEL OUTPUT IS DEPICTING THE POSSIBILITY THAT
THESE SCT STORMS COULD STILL IMPACT AT LEAST THE NW PORTIONS OF AL.
HOWEVER, WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATION, WILL
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT.

DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS, HAVE RAISED THE DEWPOINT AND
OVERNIGHT LOW FORECAST. ONE OTHER LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE FOG FORMATION
WHEN THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES OR THINS. AS A RESULT,
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR VALLEYS, RIVERS,
AND LAKES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

ISOL -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 15Z-17Z AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PROCEEDS SOUTHEAST, BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE. FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE BTWN 10Z-13Z
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE REGION BTWN 12-15Z WHICH SHOULD CHANGE WIND DIRECTION/SPEED TO
N/NE.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300517
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1217 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 904 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATING FROM A COOL FRONT LOCATED NEAR
THE OH/TN/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE HAVE PROPAGATED SOUTH TO CENTRAL TN AS
OF 0145Z. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, INSTABILITY HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD
LIKELY EXPLAIN THE STORMS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH AS THEY APPROACH
THE TN VALLEY. HI RES MODEL OUTPUT IS DEPICTING THE POSSIBILITY THAT
THESE SCT STORMS COULD STILL IMPACT AT LEAST THE NW PORTIONS OF AL.
HOWEVER, WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATION, WILL
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT.

DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS, HAVE RAISED THE DEWPOINT AND
OVERNIGHT LOW FORECAST. ONE OTHER LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE FOG FORMATION
WHEN THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES OR THINS. AS A RESULT,
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR VALLEYS, RIVERS,
AND LAKES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

ISOL -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 15Z-17Z AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PROCEEDS SOUTHEAST, BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE. FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE BTWN 10Z-13Z
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE REGION BTWN 12-15Z WHICH SHOULD CHANGE WIND DIRECTION/SPEED TO
N/NE.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300517
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1217 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 904 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATING FROM A COOL FRONT LOCATED NEAR
THE OH/TN/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE HAVE PROPAGATED SOUTH TO CENTRAL TN AS
OF 0145Z. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, INSTABILITY HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD
LIKELY EXPLAIN THE STORMS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH AS THEY APPROACH
THE TN VALLEY. HI RES MODEL OUTPUT IS DEPICTING THE POSSIBILITY THAT
THESE SCT STORMS COULD STILL IMPACT AT LEAST THE NW PORTIONS OF AL.
HOWEVER, WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATION, WILL
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT.

DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS, HAVE RAISED THE DEWPOINT AND
OVERNIGHT LOW FORECAST. ONE OTHER LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE FOG FORMATION
WHEN THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES OR THINS. AS A RESULT,
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR VALLEYS, RIVERS,
AND LAKES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

ISOL -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 15Z-17Z AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PROCEEDS SOUTHEAST, BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE. FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE BTWN 10Z-13Z
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE REGION BTWN 12-15Z WHICH SHOULD CHANGE WIND DIRECTION/SPEED TO
N/NE.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300451
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER
ACROSS BARBOUR COUNTY TRIGGERED FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE
PUSHED WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA THIS EVENING. THOSE SHOWERS SHOULDN`T
AMOUNT TO MUCH AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH ALABAMA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE NEAR MEMPHIS. THE FRONT STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. THERE`S A CHANCE THAT
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE POP FOR OUR EXTREME NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH WARM AND MUGGY
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATES ARE ALREADY
OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA COULD IMPACT
TOI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
IMPACT OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR FOG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES AT 8-12KTS.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  71  92  67 /  20  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    74  94  73  92  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  94  72  93  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  75  96  74  94  70 /  20  40  20  10   0
CALERA      75  94  72  92  70 /  20  50  20  10  10
AUBURN      74  94  74  91  72 /  20  60  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  77  97  76  93  73 /  20  60  30  30  20
TROY        74  96  75  93  73 /  20  60  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300451
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER
ACROSS BARBOUR COUNTY TRIGGERED FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE
PUSHED WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA THIS EVENING. THOSE SHOWERS SHOULDN`T
AMOUNT TO MUCH AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH ALABAMA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE NEAR MEMPHIS. THE FRONT STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. THERE`S A CHANCE THAT
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE POP FOR OUR EXTREME NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH WARM AND MUGGY
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATES ARE ALREADY
OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA COULD IMPACT
TOI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
IMPACT OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR FOG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES AT 8-12KTS.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  71  92  67 /  20  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    74  94  73  92  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  94  72  93  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  75  96  74  94  70 /  20  40  20  10   0
CALERA      75  94  72  92  70 /  20  50  20  10  10
AUBURN      74  94  74  91  72 /  20  60  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  77  97  76  93  73 /  20  60  30  30  20
TROY        74  96  75  93  73 /  20  60  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 300401
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1101 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER
ACROSS BARBOUR COUNTY TRIGGERED FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE
PUSHED WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA THIS EVENING. THOSE SHOWERS SHOULDN`T
AMOUNT TO MUCH AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH ALABAMA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE NEAR MEMPHIS. THE FRONT STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. THERE`S A CHANCE THAT
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE POP FOR OUR EXTREME NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH WARM AND MUGGY
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATES ARE ALREADY
OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...WITH
A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT MGM AND TOI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR VIS AT MOST TERMINALS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES...BUT REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  71  92  67 /  20  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    74  94  73  92  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  94  72  93  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  75  96  74  94  70 /  20  40  20  10   0
CALERA      75  94  72  92  70 /  20  50  20  10  10
AUBURN      74  94  74  91  72 /  20  60  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  77  97  76  93  73 /  20  60  30  30  20
TROY        74  96  75  93  73 /  20  60  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300401
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1101 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER
ACROSS BARBOUR COUNTY TRIGGERED FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE
PUSHED WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA THIS EVENING. THOSE SHOWERS SHOULDN`T
AMOUNT TO MUCH AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH ALABAMA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE NEAR MEMPHIS. THE FRONT STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. THERE`S A CHANCE THAT
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE POP FOR OUR EXTREME NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH WARM AND MUGGY
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATES ARE ALREADY
OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...WITH
A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT MGM AND TOI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR VIS AT MOST TERMINALS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES...BUT REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  71  92  67 /  20  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    74  94  73  92  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  94  72  93  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  75  96  74  94  70 /  20  40  20  10   0
CALERA      75  94  72  92  70 /  20  50  20  10  10
AUBURN      74  94  74  91  72 /  20  60  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  77  97  76  93  73 /  20  60  30  30  20
TROY        74  96  75  93  73 /  20  60  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300204 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
904 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T-STORM/FOG/TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATING FROM A COOL FRONT LOCATED NEAR
THE OH/TN/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE HAVE PROPAGATED SOUTH TO CENTRAL TN AS
OF 0145Z. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, INSTABILITY HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD
LIKELY EXPLAIN THE STORMS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH AS THEY APPROACH
THE TN VALLEY. HI RES MODEL OUTPUT IS DEPICTING THE POSSIBILITY THAT
THESE SCT STORMS COULD STILL IMPACT AT LEAST THE NW PORTIONS OF AL.
HOWEVER, WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATION, WILL
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT.

DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS, HAVE RAISED THE DEWPOINT AND
OVERNIGHT LOW FORECAST. ONE OTHER LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE FOG FORMATION
WHEN THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES OR THINS. AS A RESULT,
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR VALLEYS, RIVERS,
AND LAKES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 603 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU
TONIGHT. PATCHY BR MAY PRODUCE MVFR CATEGORY VSBYS (3-5SM) FROM
10-13Z. ALSO, A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
TSRA WHICH COULD IMPACT NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE PROB REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM. IF THIS PROB INCREASES,
EITHER AN AMD OR UPDATE AT 06Z WILL INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300204 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
904 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T-STORM/FOG/TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATING FROM A COOL FRONT LOCATED NEAR
THE OH/TN/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE HAVE PROPAGATED SOUTH TO CENTRAL TN AS
OF 0145Z. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, INSTABILITY HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD
LIKELY EXPLAIN THE STORMS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH AS THEY APPROACH
THE TN VALLEY. HI RES MODEL OUTPUT IS DEPICTING THE POSSIBILITY THAT
THESE SCT STORMS COULD STILL IMPACT AT LEAST THE NW PORTIONS OF AL.
HOWEVER, WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATION, WILL
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT.

DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS, HAVE RAISED THE DEWPOINT AND
OVERNIGHT LOW FORECAST. ONE OTHER LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE FOG FORMATION
WHEN THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES OR THINS. AS A RESULT,
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR VALLEYS, RIVERS,
AND LAKES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 603 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU
TONIGHT. PATCHY BR MAY PRODUCE MVFR CATEGORY VSBYS (3-5SM) FROM
10-13Z. ALSO, A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
TSRA WHICH COULD IMPACT NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE PROB REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM. IF THIS PROB INCREASES,
EITHER AN AMD OR UPDATE AT 06Z WILL INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300023 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
723 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW LATEST
ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH REGION AT THE MOMENT. IN THE
PAST HOUR THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING COVERAGE. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR A WHILE BUT THEN SOMETIME DURING THE LATE
EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER S/WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE TROUGH. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS...NAM AND
HRRR SUGGEST AN AREA OF PCPN WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SWWD INTO OUR
AREA. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...THOSE
OUTFLOWS WILL ENDURE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE COVERAGE EARLY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH OF I-65. WE
ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A 60% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TOMORROW. PUT
MINOR TWEAKS ON OVERNIGHT WINDS...POPS...QPF...CLOUDS AND WEATHER
GRIDS. HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 7 PM CDT. NEW PACKAGE OUT SHORTLY.
/23 JMM

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEAKENING AND BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING. BELIEVE SOME EAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS THOUGH...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL SFC TROF AXIS
(BOUNDARY) IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. CEILINGS AND SFC VISIBILITY
WILL BE AT VFR CRITERIA FOR NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME BKN MID/HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILTY. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)....THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY THE SRN DEEPLY-
REFLECTED RIDGE REMAINS INTACT AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT IN THE
MID- AND UPPER FLOW. MAIN THING IS DETERMINING EVOLUTION OF LEFT-
OVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME THAT WILL PRODUCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THROUGH MID EVENING).
LOOKS LIKE THE W-E LINE ENTERING OUR CWFA WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (AS THE FIRST PUSH MOVES
SWD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS). A NICE ZONE OF MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG
WILL BE PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE FURTHER SWD (AND THIS WILL AVERAGE BEING
THE HIGHEST ZONE OF INSTABILITY AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS). ALSO WILL BE WATCHING ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION UP OVER
NRN/CNTRL AL THAT IS POISED TO MOVE S IN THE FLOW. A WELL- DEFINED
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE VIA
CONSENSUS...BUT THE RECOVERY OF INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION. MAY JUST
END UP BEING A DECAYING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH DURING THE 9 PM-2 AM TIME FRAME. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES.
EXPECT ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGES ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW
AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SEWD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WE SHOULD BE JUST OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SO...THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT BE RE-ISSUED. /23 JMM

SHORT TERM...(TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)...THE
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVERALL FROM WHAT WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DOES SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BROUGHT THE VIA THE
BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A NW-SE ORIENTED MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND ON
AVERAGE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER SE OF I-65 EACH DAY. HIGHS
GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEG(F) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...ALOFT...THE FAMILIAR
NW FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME CHANGES IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC LOW LEVELS. BEGINNING MONDAY...THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WWD AND WE BENEFIT FROM THE
INCREASINGLY MORE SLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL BRING ABOUT A MODERATING
TREND OF THE NW-SE MOISTURE GRADIENT. THIS SETUP KEEPS US SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID- AND UPPER S/WAVES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE LOW BUT WILL KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT HIGH. SO...WE ARE LOOKING AT A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. HIGHS IN THE LOW-
MID 90S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

MARINE...THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE VARIABLE CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW
ON SATURDAY AS A PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE
WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
ONCE AGAIN IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD WILL
BE STORMS THAT FORM DAILY AND MOVE FROM LAND TO THE WATER DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. THE ASSOCIATED GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL BRING SUDDEN
SQUALLS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY
WATERSPOUTS. LOOKING AT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  76  93  77  91 /  60  60  60  60  50
PENSACOLA   96  78  91  78  89 /  60  60  60  60  40
DESTIN      93  79  89  80  88 /  50  60  60  60  50
EVERGREEN   96  75  95  75  92 /  60  60  60  40  40
WAYNESBORO  97  75  97  75  93 /  40  50  60  40  40
CAMDEN      95  75  96  76  92 /  50  50  60  40  30
CRESTVIEW   97  76  93  76  91 /  60  60  60  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300023 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
723 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW LATEST
ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH REGION AT THE MOMENT. IN THE
PAST HOUR THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING COVERAGE. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR A WHILE BUT THEN SOMETIME DURING THE LATE
EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER S/WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE TROUGH. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS...NAM AND
HRRR SUGGEST AN AREA OF PCPN WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SWWD INTO OUR
AREA. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...THOSE
OUTFLOWS WILL ENDURE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE COVERAGE EARLY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH OF I-65. WE
ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A 60% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TOMORROW. PUT
MINOR TWEAKS ON OVERNIGHT WINDS...POPS...QPF...CLOUDS AND WEATHER
GRIDS. HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 7 PM CDT. NEW PACKAGE OUT SHORTLY.
/23 JMM

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEAKENING AND BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING. BELIEVE SOME EAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS THOUGH...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL SFC TROF AXIS
(BOUNDARY) IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. CEILINGS AND SFC VISIBILITY
WILL BE AT VFR CRITERIA FOR NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME BKN MID/HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILTY. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)....THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY THE SRN DEEPLY-
REFLECTED RIDGE REMAINS INTACT AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT IN THE
MID- AND UPPER FLOW. MAIN THING IS DETERMINING EVOLUTION OF LEFT-
OVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME THAT WILL PRODUCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THROUGH MID EVENING).
LOOKS LIKE THE W-E LINE ENTERING OUR CWFA WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (AS THE FIRST PUSH MOVES
SWD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS). A NICE ZONE OF MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG
WILL BE PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE FURTHER SWD (AND THIS WILL AVERAGE BEING
THE HIGHEST ZONE OF INSTABILITY AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS). ALSO WILL BE WATCHING ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION UP OVER
NRN/CNTRL AL THAT IS POISED TO MOVE S IN THE FLOW. A WELL- DEFINED
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE VIA
CONSENSUS...BUT THE RECOVERY OF INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION. MAY JUST
END UP BEING A DECAYING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH DURING THE 9 PM-2 AM TIME FRAME. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES.
EXPECT ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGES ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW
AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SEWD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WE SHOULD BE JUST OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SO...THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT BE RE-ISSUED. /23 JMM

SHORT TERM...(TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)...THE
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVERALL FROM WHAT WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DOES SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BROUGHT THE VIA THE
BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A NW-SE ORIENTED MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND ON
AVERAGE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER SE OF I-65 EACH DAY. HIGHS
GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEG(F) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...ALOFT...THE FAMILIAR
NW FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME CHANGES IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC LOW LEVELS. BEGINNING MONDAY...THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WWD AND WE BENEFIT FROM THE
INCREASINGLY MORE SLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL BRING ABOUT A MODERATING
TREND OF THE NW-SE MOISTURE GRADIENT. THIS SETUP KEEPS US SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID- AND UPPER S/WAVES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE LOW BUT WILL KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT HIGH. SO...WE ARE LOOKING AT A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. HIGHS IN THE LOW-
MID 90S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

MARINE...THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE VARIABLE CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW
ON SATURDAY AS A PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE
WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
ONCE AGAIN IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD WILL
BE STORMS THAT FORM DAILY AND MOVE FROM LAND TO THE WATER DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. THE ASSOCIATED GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL BRING SUDDEN
SQUALLS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY
WATERSPOUTS. LOOKING AT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  76  93  77  91 /  60  60  60  60  50
PENSACOLA   96  78  91  78  89 /  60  60  60  60  40
DESTIN      93  79  89  80  88 /  50  60  60  60  50
EVERGREEN   96  75  95  75  92 /  60  60  60  40  40
WAYNESBORO  97  75  97  75  93 /  40  50  60  40  40
CAMDEN      95  75  96  76  92 /  50  50  60  40  30
CRESTVIEW   97  76  93  76  91 /  60  60  60  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 292346
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA IN THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY ROSE
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S BY LATE MORNING AND HEAT INDICES CLIMBED INTO
105-108 RANGE...BUT CONVECTION HAS COOLED DOWN MOST AREAS AND THE
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE ARE TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...ONE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND ANOTHER
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY SUNSET
THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-20...AND WILL GO WITH
JUST 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
OVERNIGHT...WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
AN ISSUE...AND HEAT INDICES MAY CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING. BY FRIDAY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD NOTICE THE DRIER AIR LOCATED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD HANG UP NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR...SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS LESS
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA...AND DID LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY IN
THESE AREAS. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES THE
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO
STAY LOWER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...WITH
A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT MGM AND TOI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR VIS AT MOST TERMINALS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES...BUT REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  71  92  67 /  20  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    75  94  73  92  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  77  94  72  93  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  76  96  74  94  70 /  30  40  20  10   0
CALERA      76  94  72  92  70 /  30  50  20  10  10
AUBURN      75  94  74  91  72 /  40  60  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  77  97  76  93  73 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        75  96  75  93  73 /  40  60  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 292346
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA IN THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY ROSE
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S BY LATE MORNING AND HEAT INDICES CLIMBED INTO
105-108 RANGE...BUT CONVECTION HAS COOLED DOWN MOST AREAS AND THE
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE ARE TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...ONE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND ANOTHER
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY SUNSET
THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-20...AND WILL GO WITH
JUST 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
OVERNIGHT...WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
AN ISSUE...AND HEAT INDICES MAY CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING. BY FRIDAY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD NOTICE THE DRIER AIR LOCATED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD HANG UP NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR...SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS LESS
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA...AND DID LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY IN
THESE AREAS. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES THE
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO
STAY LOWER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...WITH
A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT MGM AND TOI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR VIS AT MOST TERMINALS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES...BUT REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  71  92  67 /  20  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    75  94  73  92  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  77  94  72  93  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  76  96  74  94  70 /  30  40  20  10   0
CALERA      76  94  72  92  70 /  30  50  20  10  10
AUBURN      75  94  74  91  72 /  40  60  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  77  97  76  93  73 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        75  96  75  93  73 /  40  60  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 292303 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
603 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 233 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MISSOURI...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AT 500 MILLIBARS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE IT TO NEAR NASHVILLE
TENNESSEE BY AROUND 06Z AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE PRECIP ON
OR BEFORE THIS TIME FRAME ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
WELCOME LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THE MODELS KEEP THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A DRY
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP TEMPS AT NEAR GUIDANCE
VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU
TONIGHT. PATCHY BR MAY PRODUCE MVFR CATEGORY VSBYS (3-5SM) FROM
10-13Z. ALSO, A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
TSRA WHICH COULD IMPACT NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE PROB REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM. IF THIS PROB INCREASES,
EITHER AN AMD OR UPDATE AT 06Z WILL INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 292303 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
603 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 233 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MISSOURI...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AT 500 MILLIBARS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE IT TO NEAR NASHVILLE
TENNESSEE BY AROUND 06Z AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE PRECIP ON
OR BEFORE THIS TIME FRAME ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
WELCOME LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THE MODELS KEEP THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A DRY
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP TEMPS AT NEAR GUIDANCE
VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU
TONIGHT. PATCHY BR MAY PRODUCE MVFR CATEGORY VSBYS (3-5SM) FROM
10-13Z. ALSO, A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
TSRA WHICH COULD IMPACT NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE PROB REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM. IF THIS PROB INCREASES,
EITHER AN AMD OR UPDATE AT 06Z WILL INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 292034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)....THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY THE SRN DEEPLY-
REFLECTED RIDGE REMAINS INTACT AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT IN THE
MID- AND UPPER FLOW. MAIN THING IS DETERMINING EVOLUTION OF LEFT-
OVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME THAT WILL PRODUCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THROUGH MID EVENING).
LOOKS LIKE THE W-E LINE ENTERING OUR CWFA WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (AS THE FIRST PUSH MOVES
SWD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS). A NICE ZONE OF MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG
WILL BE PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE FURTHER SWD (AND THIS WILL AVERAGE BEING
THE HIGHEST ZONE OF INSTABILITY AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS). ALSO WILL BE WATCHING ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION UP OVER
NRN/CNTRL AL THAT IS POISED TO MOVE S IN THE FLOW. A WELL- DEFINED
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE VIA
CONSENSUS...BUT THE RECOVERY OF INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION. MAY JUST
END UP BEING A DECAYING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH DURING THE 9 PM-2 AM TIME FRAME. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES.
EXPECT ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGES ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW
AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SEWD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WE SHOULD BE JUST OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SO...THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT BE RE-ISSUED. /23 JMM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)...THE
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVERALL FROM WHAT WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DOES SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BROUGHT THE VIA THE
BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A NW-SE ORIENTED MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND ON
AVERAGE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER SE OF I-65 EACH DAY. HIGHS
GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEG(F) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...ALOFT...THE FAMILIAR
NW FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME CHANGES IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC LOW LEVELS. BEGINNING MONDAY...THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WWD AND WE BENEFIT FROM THE
INCREASINGLY MORE SLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL BRING ABOUT A MODERATING
TREND OF THE NW-SE MOISTURE GRADIENT. THIS SETUP KEEPS US SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID- AND UPPER S/WAVES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE LOW BUT WILL KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT HIGH. SO...WE ARE LOOKING AT A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. HIGHS IN THE LOW-
MID 90S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE VARIABLE CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW
ON SATURDAY AS A PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE
WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
ONCE AGAIN IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD WILL
BE STORMS THAT FORM DAILY AND MOVE FROM LAND TO THE WATER DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. THE ASSOCIATED GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL BRING SUDDEN
SQUALLS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY
WATERSPOUTS. LOOKING AT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  93  77  91  76 /  60  60  60  50  30
PENSACOLA   78  91  78  89  77 /  60  60  60  40  40
DESTIN      79  89  80  88  79 /  60  60  60  50  40
EVERGREEN   75  95  75  92  74 /  60  60  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  75  97  75  93  72 /  50  60  40  40  20
CAMDEN      75  96  76  92  74 /  50  60  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   76  93  76  91  75 /  60  60  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALDWIN CENTRAL-
     BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-MOBILE
     COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ESCAMBIA COASTAL-
     ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA
     COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 292034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)....THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY THE SRN DEEPLY-
REFLECTED RIDGE REMAINS INTACT AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT IN THE
MID- AND UPPER FLOW. MAIN THING IS DETERMINING EVOLUTION OF LEFT-
OVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME THAT WILL PRODUCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THROUGH MID EVENING).
LOOKS LIKE THE W-E LINE ENTERING OUR CWFA WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (AS THE FIRST PUSH MOVES
SWD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS). A NICE ZONE OF MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG
WILL BE PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE FURTHER SWD (AND THIS WILL AVERAGE BEING
THE HIGHEST ZONE OF INSTABILITY AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS). ALSO WILL BE WATCHING ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION UP OVER
NRN/CNTRL AL THAT IS POISED TO MOVE S IN THE FLOW. A WELL- DEFINED
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE VIA
CONSENSUS...BUT THE RECOVERY OF INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION. MAY JUST
END UP BEING A DECAYING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH DURING THE 9 PM-2 AM TIME FRAME. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES.
EXPECT ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGES ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW
AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SEWD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WE SHOULD BE JUST OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SO...THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT BE RE-ISSUED. /23 JMM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)...THE
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVERALL FROM WHAT WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DOES SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BROUGHT THE VIA THE
BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A NW-SE ORIENTED MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND ON
AVERAGE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER SE OF I-65 EACH DAY. HIGHS
GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEG(F) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...ALOFT...THE FAMILIAR
NW FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME CHANGES IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC LOW LEVELS. BEGINNING MONDAY...THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WWD AND WE BENEFIT FROM THE
INCREASINGLY MORE SLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL BRING ABOUT A MODERATING
TREND OF THE NW-SE MOISTURE GRADIENT. THIS SETUP KEEPS US SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID- AND UPPER S/WAVES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE LOW BUT WILL KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT HIGH. SO...WE ARE LOOKING AT A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. HIGHS IN THE LOW-
MID 90S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE VARIABLE CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW
ON SATURDAY AS A PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE
WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
ONCE AGAIN IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD WILL
BE STORMS THAT FORM DAILY AND MOVE FROM LAND TO THE WATER DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. THE ASSOCIATED GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL BRING SUDDEN
SQUALLS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY
WATERSPOUTS. LOOKING AT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  93  77  91  76 /  60  60  60  50  30
PENSACOLA   78  91  78  89  77 /  60  60  60  40  40
DESTIN      79  89  80  88  79 /  60  60  60  50  40
EVERGREEN   75  95  75  92  74 /  60  60  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  75  97  75  93  72 /  50  60  40  40  20
CAMDEN      75  96  76  92  74 /  50  60  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   76  93  76  91  75 /  60  60  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALDWIN CENTRAL-
     BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-MOBILE
     COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ESCAMBIA COASTAL-
     ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA
     COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 292023
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
323 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA IN THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY ROSE
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S BY LATE MORNING AND HEAT INDICES CLIMBED INTO
105-108 RANGE...BUT CONVECTION HAS COOLED DOWN MOST AREAS AND THE
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE ARE TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...ONE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND ANOTHER
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY SUNSET
THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-20...AND WILL GO WITH
JUST 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
OVERNIGHT...WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
AN ISSUE...AND HEAT INDICES MAY CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING. BY FRIDAY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD NOTICE THE DRIER AIR LOCATED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD HANG UP NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR...SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS LESS
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA...AND DID LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY IN
THESE AREAS. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES THE
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO
STAY LOWER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BASED ON HIRES MODELS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A BIT
LESS COVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST AS COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS SO HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ANB/ASN FOR NOW.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO AMEND IF COVERAGE INCREASES.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIRES MODELS ALSO SHOW MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
THRU THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. THEREFORE HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF TS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND TS
MENTION A BIT LONGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  71  92  67 /  20  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    75  94  73  92  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  77  94  72  93  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  76  96  74  94  70 /  30  40  20  10   0
CALERA      76  94  72  92  70 /  30  50  20  10  10
AUBURN      75  94  74  91  72 /  40  60  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  77  97  76  93  73 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        75  96  75  93  73 /  40  60  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 292023
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
323 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA IN THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY ROSE
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S BY LATE MORNING AND HEAT INDICES CLIMBED INTO
105-108 RANGE...BUT CONVECTION HAS COOLED DOWN MOST AREAS AND THE
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE ARE TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...ONE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND ANOTHER
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY SUNSET
THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-20...AND WILL GO WITH
JUST 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
OVERNIGHT...WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
AN ISSUE...AND HEAT INDICES MAY CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING. BY FRIDAY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD NOTICE THE DRIER AIR LOCATED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD HANG UP NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR...SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS LESS
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA...AND DID LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY IN
THESE AREAS. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES THE
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO
STAY LOWER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BASED ON HIRES MODELS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A BIT
LESS COVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST AS COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS SO HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ANB/ASN FOR NOW.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO AMEND IF COVERAGE INCREASES.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIRES MODELS ALSO SHOW MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
THRU THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. THEREFORE HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF TS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND TS
MENTION A BIT LONGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  71  92  67 /  20  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    75  94  73  92  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  77  94  72  93  69 /  20  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  76  96  74  94  70 /  30  40  20  10   0
CALERA      76  94  72  92  70 /  30  50  20  10  10
AUBURN      75  94  74  91  72 /  40  60  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  77  97  76  93  73 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        75  96  75  93  73 /  40  60  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291933
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
233 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MISSOURI...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AT 500 MILLIBARS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE IT TO NEAR NASHVILLE
TENNESSEE BY AROUND 06Z AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE PRECIP ON
OR BEFORE THIS TIME FRAME ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
WELCOME LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THE MODELS KEEP THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A DRY
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP TEMPS AT NEAR GUIDANCE
VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 21Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED...AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE...MVFR MIST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  94  68  92 /  30  30  10  10
SHOALS        76  93  68  91 /  30  30  10   0
VINEMONT      73  90  67  89 /  30  30  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  74  89  66  88 /  30  30  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   73  91  68  89 /  30  30  10  10
FORT PAYNE    72  90  66  89 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291933
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
233 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MISSOURI...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AT 500 MILLIBARS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE IT TO NEAR NASHVILLE
TENNESSEE BY AROUND 06Z AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE PRECIP ON
OR BEFORE THIS TIME FRAME ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
WELCOME LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THE MODELS KEEP THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A DRY
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP TEMPS AT NEAR GUIDANCE
VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 21Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED...AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE...MVFR MIST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  94  68  92 /  30  30  10  10
SHOALS        76  93  68  91 /  30  30  10   0
VINEMONT      73  90  67  89 /  30  30  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  74  89  66  88 /  30  30  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   73  91  68  89 /  30  30  10  10
FORT PAYNE    72  90  66  89 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291933
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
233 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MISSOURI...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AT 500 MILLIBARS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE IT TO NEAR NASHVILLE
TENNESSEE BY AROUND 06Z AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE PRECIP ON
OR BEFORE THIS TIME FRAME ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
WELCOME LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THE MODELS KEEP THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A DRY
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP TEMPS AT NEAR GUIDANCE
VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 21Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED...AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE...MVFR MIST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  94  68  92 /  30  30  10  10
SHOALS        76  93  68  91 /  30  30  10   0
VINEMONT      73  90  67  89 /  30  30  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  74  89  66  88 /  30  30  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   73  91  68  89 /  30  30  10  10
FORT PAYNE    72  90  66  89 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291933
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
233 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MISSOURI...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AT 500 MILLIBARS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE IT TO NEAR NASHVILLE
TENNESSEE BY AROUND 06Z AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE PRECIP ON
OR BEFORE THIS TIME FRAME ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
WELCOME LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THE MODELS KEEP THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A DRY
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP TEMPS AT NEAR GUIDANCE
VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 21Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED...AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE...MVFR MIST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  94  68  92 /  30  30  10  10
SHOALS        76  93  68  91 /  30  30  10   0
VINEMONT      73  90  67  89 /  30  30  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  74  89  66  88 /  30  30  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   73  91  68  89 /  30  30  10  10
FORT PAYNE    72  90  66  89 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 291800
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY.
SOME ORGANIZATION OR GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 105 DEGREES DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.

THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...AS HIGH
AS 2.3 INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURPRISINGLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE QPF
FROM SEVERAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY EXIT THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BASED ON HIRES MODELS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A BIT
LESS COVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST AS COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS SO HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ANB/ASN FOR NOW.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO AMEND IF COVERAGE INCREASES.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIRES MODELS ALSO SHOW MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
THRU THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. THEREFORE HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF TS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND TS
MENTION A BIT LONGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  92  71  91  67 /  30  40  20  10  10
ANNISTON    75  93  73  91  69 /  30  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  93  72  92  69 /  30  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  75  95  74  94  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
CALERA      75  93  72  92  70 /  30  50  20  10  10
AUBURN      75  92  74  90  72 /  30  60  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  93  73 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        75  94  75  91  73 /  30  60  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 291800
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY.
SOME ORGANIZATION OR GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 105 DEGREES DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.

THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...AS HIGH
AS 2.3 INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURPRISINGLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE QPF
FROM SEVERAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY EXIT THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BASED ON HIRES MODELS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A BIT
LESS COVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST AS COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS SO HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ANB/ASN FOR NOW.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO AMEND IF COVERAGE INCREASES.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIRES MODELS ALSO SHOW MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
THRU THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. THEREFORE HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF TS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND TS
MENTION A BIT LONGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  92  71  91  67 /  30  40  20  10  10
ANNISTON    75  93  73  91  69 /  30  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  93  72  92  69 /  30  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  75  95  74  94  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
CALERA      75  93  72  92  70 /  30  50  20  10  10
AUBURN      75  92  74  90  72 /  30  60  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  93  73 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        75  94  75  91  73 /  30  60  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291800
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY.
SOME ORGANIZATION OR GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 105 DEGREES DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.

THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...AS HIGH
AS 2.3 INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURPRISINGLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE QPF
FROM SEVERAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY EXIT THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BASED ON HIRES MODELS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A BIT
LESS COVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST AS COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS SO HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ANB/ASN FOR NOW.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO AMEND IF COVERAGE INCREASES.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIRES MODELS ALSO SHOW MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
THRU THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. THEREFORE HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF TS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND TS
MENTION A BIT LONGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  92  71  91  67 /  30  40  20  10  10
ANNISTON    75  93  73  91  69 /  30  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  93  72  92  69 /  30  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  75  95  74  94  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
CALERA      75  93  72  92  70 /  30  50  20  10  10
AUBURN      75  92  74  90  72 /  30  60  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  93  73 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        75  94  75  91  73 /  30  60  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291729 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1019 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS EVEN MORE SATURATED TODAY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL TN SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN AL. SCATTERED TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN FORMING THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN NW AL ESPECIALLY. MORE ACTIVITY CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM IN
SOUTHERN TN...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO NW AL LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON
THE EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC FLOW PROGGED BY MODELS...BELIEVE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO PRIMARILY NW AL AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE
I-65 CORRIDOR THROUGH AROUND NOON OR 1 PM. THEN EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FURTHER EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE
MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND BETTER INSOLATION HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE SLIGHTLY WEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...BUT NOT MUCH.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER AND ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL
HELP TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NW ALABAMA.
ALSO THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 99 AND 104 DEGREES. THUS THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OTHERWISE WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND A FAIRLY DECENT CONVERGENCE IN
PLACE...RAISED POPS TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT WEST OF I-65 IN THE MORNING
AND 30-40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 25 KT WINDS AT 850 MB...COULD
SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 21Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED...AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE...MVFR MIST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291729 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1019 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS EVEN MORE SATURATED TODAY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL TN SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN AL. SCATTERED TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN FORMING THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN NW AL ESPECIALLY. MORE ACTIVITY CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM IN
SOUTHERN TN...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO NW AL LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON
THE EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC FLOW PROGGED BY MODELS...BELIEVE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO PRIMARILY NW AL AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE
I-65 CORRIDOR THROUGH AROUND NOON OR 1 PM. THEN EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FURTHER EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE
MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND BETTER INSOLATION HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE SLIGHTLY WEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...BUT NOT MUCH.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER AND ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL
HELP TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NW ALABAMA.
ALSO THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 99 AND 104 DEGREES. THUS THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OTHERWISE WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND A FAIRLY DECENT CONVERGENCE IN
PLACE...RAISED POPS TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT WEST OF I-65 IN THE MORNING
AND 30-40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 25 KT WINDS AT 850 MB...COULD
SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 21Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED...AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE...MVFR MIST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291729 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1019 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS EVEN MORE SATURATED TODAY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL TN SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN AL. SCATTERED TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN FORMING THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN NW AL ESPECIALLY. MORE ACTIVITY CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM IN
SOUTHERN TN...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO NW AL LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON
THE EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC FLOW PROGGED BY MODELS...BELIEVE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO PRIMARILY NW AL AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE
I-65 CORRIDOR THROUGH AROUND NOON OR 1 PM. THEN EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FURTHER EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE
MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND BETTER INSOLATION HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE SLIGHTLY WEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...BUT NOT MUCH.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER AND ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL
HELP TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NW ALABAMA.
ALSO THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 99 AND 104 DEGREES. THUS THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OTHERWISE WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND A FAIRLY DECENT CONVERGENCE IN
PLACE...RAISED POPS TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT WEST OF I-65 IN THE MORNING
AND 30-40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 25 KT WINDS AT 850 MB...COULD
SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 21Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED...AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE...MVFR MIST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291729 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1019 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS EVEN MORE SATURATED TODAY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL TN SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN AL. SCATTERED TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN FORMING THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN NW AL ESPECIALLY. MORE ACTIVITY CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM IN
SOUTHERN TN...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO NW AL LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON
THE EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC FLOW PROGGED BY MODELS...BELIEVE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO PRIMARILY NW AL AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE
I-65 CORRIDOR THROUGH AROUND NOON OR 1 PM. THEN EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FURTHER EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE
MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND BETTER INSOLATION HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE SLIGHTLY WEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...BUT NOT MUCH.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER AND ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL
HELP TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NW ALABAMA.
ALSO THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 99 AND 104 DEGREES. THUS THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OTHERWISE WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND A FAIRLY DECENT CONVERGENCE IN
PLACE...RAISED POPS TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT WEST OF I-65 IN THE MORNING
AND 30-40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 25 KT WINDS AT 850 MB...COULD
SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 21Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED...AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE...MVFR MIST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 291722 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1222 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /02/

&&

.AVIATION...

A SOUTHWARD-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  AS SUCH...EXPECT
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES (DUE TO LOWER CIGS) TO LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ANY
CONVECTION. THE GREATEST ODDS OF LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS S AL AND NW FL.

GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER TSRA WILL LIKELY BE THE
MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS.  CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AFTER 30/0000 UTC WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...LOOK FOR VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
AND W-NW WINDS 5-10 KTS.  /02/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...INDICATES A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA/WESTERN
GEORGIA.  UPSTREAM SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATES A PRETTY HEALTHY SLUG
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK
(PLUS OR MINUS 0.10 INCH).

EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO INITIATE CONVECTION AS IT ENTERS THE
RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MLCAPE VALUES ALREADY EXCEED 2000
J/KG IN MANY LOCATIONS AT MID-MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES SHOULD STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A POCKET OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION.

THE SEA BREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES...
AND FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 15500 AND 16000 FT.  PUTTING ALL OF THIS
TOGETHER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE IH-65 CORRIDOR.

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY/WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN MADE THROUGH TONIGHT.  GREATER
ODDS HAVE INTRODUCED BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ALABAMA...THEN BLENDED INTO (MORE-OR-LESS) THE PRE-EXISTING
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GRIDS.  THE ENHANCED ODDS OF SEEING
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM...WITH NO CHANGE AT THIS
TIME THEREAFTER.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.  ISC GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT AND PUBLISHED TO THE INTERNET.  UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL
FOLLOW SHORTLY.

DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU`RE LOCATED...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
OF WET MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON.  /02/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...BIGGEST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE TENN RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE HIGH RES END OF THE GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW, ETC) ARE
ADVERTISING AN MCS SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN AL TODAY...THEN MOVING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEX INTO TONIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING THE USUAL SHRA/TSRA FIRING OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EITHER WAY ONE CUTS IT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA EXPECTED TODAY
OVER MOST OF THE FA...LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TEMPS...WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL CONTINUE. COMBINED WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS (PRECIP H20
VALUES > 2")...HEAT INDICES RISING TO AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY
IS EXPECTED...SO CONTINUING THE PREVIOUS ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY.

ON TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER...WITH A VERY HOT/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS (CAPES
TOPPING 3500J/KG) OVER THE AREA TODAY...ANTICIPATING SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
EXPECTED THREAT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE MCS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. /16

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS
FROM TEXAS...EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE BROAD HIGH LEVEL
TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BEING A
FOCUS FOR ASCENT...COUPLED WITH HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DAILY
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING.
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0...TO AS HIGH 2.3 INCHES BEING
WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE END OF JULY (1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE QUITE
EFFICIENT IN DROPPING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. OTHER HAZARDS IN AND
NEAR STORMS WILL BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ELSEWHERE...MID 90S IN THE FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT...MID TO UPPER 70S. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE EROSION OF THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADVANCE
BY SUNDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL TREND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE TROF OUT OVER THE GULF AND A
REDUCTION IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STAND
AT 20% OR LESS.

DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. SOME UPWARD
MODERATION BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES IN THESE NUMBERS IS FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /16

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX WILL
CREATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT...TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OPEN WATERS...BRINGING A MORE MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  75  92  77  91 /  60  60  40  30  50
PENSACOLA   96  77  91  78  89 /  60  60  40  30  40
DESTIN      93  79  89  79  87 /  50  50  50  30  40
EVERGREEN   96  74  94  75  93 /  60  60  30  30  40
WAYNESBORO  97  74  96  75  93 /  40  40  30  30  40
CAMDEN      95  74  96  76  92 /  50  50  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   97  75  92  75  91 /  60  60  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALDWIN CENTRAL-
     BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-MOBILE
     COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ESCAMBIA COASTAL-
     ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA
     COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

BUTTS




000
FXUS64 KMOB 291722 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1222 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /02/

&&

.AVIATION...

A SOUTHWARD-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  AS SUCH...EXPECT
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES (DUE TO LOWER CIGS) TO LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ANY
CONVECTION. THE GREATEST ODDS OF LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS S AL AND NW FL.

GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER TSRA WILL LIKELY BE THE
MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS.  CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AFTER 30/0000 UTC WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...LOOK FOR VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
AND W-NW WINDS 5-10 KTS.  /02/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...INDICATES A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA/WESTERN
GEORGIA.  UPSTREAM SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATES A PRETTY HEALTHY SLUG
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK
(PLUS OR MINUS 0.10 INCH).

EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO INITIATE CONVECTION AS IT ENTERS THE
RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MLCAPE VALUES ALREADY EXCEED 2000
J/KG IN MANY LOCATIONS AT MID-MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES SHOULD STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A POCKET OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION.

THE SEA BREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES...
AND FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 15500 AND 16000 FT.  PUTTING ALL OF THIS
TOGETHER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE IH-65 CORRIDOR.

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY/WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN MADE THROUGH TONIGHT.  GREATER
ODDS HAVE INTRODUCED BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ALABAMA...THEN BLENDED INTO (MORE-OR-LESS) THE PRE-EXISTING
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GRIDS.  THE ENHANCED ODDS OF SEEING
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM...WITH NO CHANGE AT THIS
TIME THEREAFTER.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.  ISC GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT AND PUBLISHED TO THE INTERNET.  UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL
FOLLOW SHORTLY.

DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU`RE LOCATED...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
OF WET MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON.  /02/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...BIGGEST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE TENN RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE HIGH RES END OF THE GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW, ETC) ARE
ADVERTISING AN MCS SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN AL TODAY...THEN MOVING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEX INTO TONIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING THE USUAL SHRA/TSRA FIRING OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EITHER WAY ONE CUTS IT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA EXPECTED TODAY
OVER MOST OF THE FA...LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TEMPS...WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL CONTINUE. COMBINED WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS (PRECIP H20
VALUES > 2")...HEAT INDICES RISING TO AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY
IS EXPECTED...SO CONTINUING THE PREVIOUS ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY.

ON TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER...WITH A VERY HOT/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS (CAPES
TOPPING 3500J/KG) OVER THE AREA TODAY...ANTICIPATING SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
EXPECTED THREAT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE MCS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. /16

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS
FROM TEXAS...EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE BROAD HIGH LEVEL
TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BEING A
FOCUS FOR ASCENT...COUPLED WITH HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DAILY
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING.
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0...TO AS HIGH 2.3 INCHES BEING
WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE END OF JULY (1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE QUITE
EFFICIENT IN DROPPING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. OTHER HAZARDS IN AND
NEAR STORMS WILL BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ELSEWHERE...MID 90S IN THE FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT...MID TO UPPER 70S. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE EROSION OF THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADVANCE
BY SUNDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL TREND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE TROF OUT OVER THE GULF AND A
REDUCTION IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STAND
AT 20% OR LESS.

DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. SOME UPWARD
MODERATION BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES IN THESE NUMBERS IS FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /16

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX WILL
CREATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT...TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OPEN WATERS...BRINGING A MORE MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  75  92  77  91 /  60  60  40  30  50
PENSACOLA   96  77  91  78  89 /  60  60  40  30  40
DESTIN      93  79  89  79  87 /  50  50  50  30  40
EVERGREEN   96  74  94  75  93 /  60  60  30  30  40
WAYNESBORO  97  74  96  75  93 /  40  40  30  30  40
CAMDEN      95  74  96  76  92 /  50  50  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   97  75  92  75  91 /  60  60  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALDWIN CENTRAL-
     BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-MOBILE
     COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ESCAMBIA COASTAL-
     ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA
     COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

BUTTS



000
FXUS64 KMOB 291722 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1222 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /02/

&&

.AVIATION...

A SOUTHWARD-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  AS SUCH...EXPECT
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES (DUE TO LOWER CIGS) TO LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ANY
CONVECTION. THE GREATEST ODDS OF LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS S AL AND NW FL.

GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER TSRA WILL LIKELY BE THE
MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS.  CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AFTER 30/0000 UTC WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...LOOK FOR VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
AND W-NW WINDS 5-10 KTS.  /02/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...INDICATES A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA/WESTERN
GEORGIA.  UPSTREAM SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATES A PRETTY HEALTHY SLUG
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK
(PLUS OR MINUS 0.10 INCH).

EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO INITIATE CONVECTION AS IT ENTERS THE
RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MLCAPE VALUES ALREADY EXCEED 2000
J/KG IN MANY LOCATIONS AT MID-MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES SHOULD STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A POCKET OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION.

THE SEA BREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES...
AND FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 15500 AND 16000 FT.  PUTTING ALL OF THIS
TOGETHER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE IH-65 CORRIDOR.

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY/WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN MADE THROUGH TONIGHT.  GREATER
ODDS HAVE INTRODUCED BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ALABAMA...THEN BLENDED INTO (MORE-OR-LESS) THE PRE-EXISTING
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GRIDS.  THE ENHANCED ODDS OF SEEING
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM...WITH NO CHANGE AT THIS
TIME THEREAFTER.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.  ISC GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT AND PUBLISHED TO THE INTERNET.  UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL
FOLLOW SHORTLY.

DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU`RE LOCATED...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
OF WET MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON.  /02/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...BIGGEST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE TENN RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE HIGH RES END OF THE GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW, ETC) ARE
ADVERTISING AN MCS SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN AL TODAY...THEN MOVING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEX INTO TONIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING THE USUAL SHRA/TSRA FIRING OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EITHER WAY ONE CUTS IT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA EXPECTED TODAY
OVER MOST OF THE FA...LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TEMPS...WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL CONTINUE. COMBINED WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS (PRECIP H20
VALUES > 2")...HEAT INDICES RISING TO AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY
IS EXPECTED...SO CONTINUING THE PREVIOUS ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY.

ON TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER...WITH A VERY HOT/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS (CAPES
TOPPING 3500J/KG) OVER THE AREA TODAY...ANTICIPATING SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
EXPECTED THREAT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE MCS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. /16

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS
FROM TEXAS...EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE BROAD HIGH LEVEL
TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BEING A
FOCUS FOR ASCENT...COUPLED WITH HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DAILY
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING.
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0...TO AS HIGH 2.3 INCHES BEING
WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE END OF JULY (1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE QUITE
EFFICIENT IN DROPPING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. OTHER HAZARDS IN AND
NEAR STORMS WILL BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ELSEWHERE...MID 90S IN THE FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT...MID TO UPPER 70S. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE EROSION OF THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADVANCE
BY SUNDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL TREND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE TROF OUT OVER THE GULF AND A
REDUCTION IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STAND
AT 20% OR LESS.

DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. SOME UPWARD
MODERATION BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES IN THESE NUMBERS IS FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /16

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX WILL
CREATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT...TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OPEN WATERS...BRINGING A MORE MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  75  92  77  91 /  60  60  40  30  50
PENSACOLA   96  77  91  78  89 /  60  60  40  30  40
DESTIN      93  79  89  79  87 /  50  50  50  30  40
EVERGREEN   96  74  94  75  93 /  60  60  30  30  40
WAYNESBORO  97  74  96  75  93 /  40  40  30  30  40
CAMDEN      95  74  96  76  92 /  50  50  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   97  75  92  75  91 /  60  60  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALDWIN CENTRAL-
     BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-MOBILE
     COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ESCAMBIA COASTAL-
     ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA
     COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

BUTTS




000
FXUS64 KMOB 291614 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1114 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...INDICATES A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA/WESTERN
GEORGIA.  UPSTREAM SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATES A PRETTY HEALTHY SLUG
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK
(PLUS OR MINUS 0.10 INCH).

EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO INITIATE CONVECTION AS IT ENTERS THE
RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MLCAPE VALUES ALREADY EXCEED 2000
J/KG IN MANY LOCATIONS AT MID-MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES SHOULD STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A POCKET OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION.

THE SEA BREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES...
AND FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 15500 AND 16000 FT.  PUTTING ALL OF THIS
TOGETHER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE IH-65 CORRIDOR.

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY/WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN MADE THROUGH TONIGHT.  GREATER
ODDS HAVE INTRODUCED BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ALABAMA...THEN BLENDED INTO (MORE-OR-LESS) THE PRE-EXISTING
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GRIDS.  THE ENHANCED ODDS OF SEEING
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM...WITH NO CHANGE AT THIS
TIME THEREAFTER.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.  ISC GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT AND PUBLISHED TO THE INTERNET.  UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL
FOLLOW SHORTLY.

DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU`RE LOCATED...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
OF WET MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON.  /02/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...BIGGEST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE TENN RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE HIGH RES END OF THE GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW, ETC) ARE
ADVERTISING AN MCS SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN AL TODAY...THEN MOVING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEX INTO TONIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING THE USUAL SHRA/TSRA FIRING OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EITHER WAY ONE CUTS IT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA EXPECTED TODAY
OVER MOST OF THE FA...LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TEMPS...WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL CONTINUE. COMBINED WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS (PRECIP H20
VALUES > 2")...HEAT INDICES RISING TO AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY
IS EXPECTED...SO CONTINUING THE PREVIOUS ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY.

ON TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER...WITH A VERY HOT/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS (CAPES
TOPPING 3500J/KG) OVER THE AREA TODAY...ANTICIPATING SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
EXPECTED THREAT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE MCS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. /16

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS
FROM TEXAS...EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE BROAD HIGH LEVEL
TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BEING A
FOCUS FOR ASCENT...COUPLED WITH HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DAILY
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING.
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0...TO AS HIGH 2.3 INCHES BEING
WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE END OF JULY (1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE QUITE
EFFICIENT IN DROPPING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. OTHER HAZARDS IN AND
NEAR STORMS WILL BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ELSEWHERE...MID 90S IN THE FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT...MID TO UPPER 70S. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE EROSION OF THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADVANCE
BY SUNDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL TREND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE TROF OUT OVER THE GULF AND A
REDUCTION IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STAND
AT 20% OR LESS.

DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. SOME UPWARD
MODERATION BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES IN THESE NUMBERS IS FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /16

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX WILL
CREATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT...TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OPEN WATERS...BRINGING A MORE MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  75  92  77  91 /  60  60  40  30  50
PENSACOLA   96  77  91  78  89 /  60  60  40  30  40
DESTIN      93  79  89  79  87 /  50  50  50  30  40
EVERGREEN   96  74  94  75  93 /  60  60  30  30  40
WAYNESBORO  97  74  96  75  93 /  40  40  30  30  40
CAMDEN      95  74  96  76  92 /  50  50  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   97  75  92  75  91 /  60  60  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALDWIN CENTRAL-
     BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-MOBILE
     COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ESCAMBIA COASTAL-
     ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA
     COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

BUTTS



000
FXUS64 KMOB 291614 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1114 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...INDICATES A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA/WESTERN
GEORGIA.  UPSTREAM SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATES A PRETTY HEALTHY SLUG
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK
(PLUS OR MINUS 0.10 INCH).

EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO INITIATE CONVECTION AS IT ENTERS THE
RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MLCAPE VALUES ALREADY EXCEED 2000
J/KG IN MANY LOCATIONS AT MID-MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES SHOULD STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A POCKET OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION.

THE SEA BREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES...
AND FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 15500 AND 16000 FT.  PUTTING ALL OF THIS
TOGETHER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE IH-65 CORRIDOR.

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY/WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN MADE THROUGH TONIGHT.  GREATER
ODDS HAVE INTRODUCED BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ALABAMA...THEN BLENDED INTO (MORE-OR-LESS) THE PRE-EXISTING
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GRIDS.  THE ENHANCED ODDS OF SEEING
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM...WITH NO CHANGE AT THIS
TIME THEREAFTER.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.  ISC GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT AND PUBLISHED TO THE INTERNET.  UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL
FOLLOW SHORTLY.

DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU`RE LOCATED...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
OF WET MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON.  /02/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...BIGGEST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE TENN RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE HIGH RES END OF THE GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW, ETC) ARE
ADVERTISING AN MCS SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN AL TODAY...THEN MOVING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEX INTO TONIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING THE USUAL SHRA/TSRA FIRING OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EITHER WAY ONE CUTS IT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA EXPECTED TODAY
OVER MOST OF THE FA...LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TEMPS...WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL CONTINUE. COMBINED WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS (PRECIP H20
VALUES > 2")...HEAT INDICES RISING TO AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY
IS EXPECTED...SO CONTINUING THE PREVIOUS ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY.

ON TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER...WITH A VERY HOT/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS (CAPES
TOPPING 3500J/KG) OVER THE AREA TODAY...ANTICIPATING SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
EXPECTED THREAT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE MCS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. /16

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS
FROM TEXAS...EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE BROAD HIGH LEVEL
TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BEING A
FOCUS FOR ASCENT...COUPLED WITH HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DAILY
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING.
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0...TO AS HIGH 2.3 INCHES BEING
WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE END OF JULY (1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE QUITE
EFFICIENT IN DROPPING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. OTHER HAZARDS IN AND
NEAR STORMS WILL BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ELSEWHERE...MID 90S IN THE FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT...MID TO UPPER 70S. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE EROSION OF THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADVANCE
BY SUNDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL TREND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE TROF OUT OVER THE GULF AND A
REDUCTION IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STAND
AT 20% OR LESS.

DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. SOME UPWARD
MODERATION BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES IN THESE NUMBERS IS FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /16

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX WILL
CREATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT...TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OPEN WATERS...BRINGING A MORE MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  75  92  77  91 /  60  60  40  30  50
PENSACOLA   96  77  91  78  89 /  60  60  40  30  40
DESTIN      93  79  89  79  87 /  50  50  50  30  40
EVERGREEN   96  74  94  75  93 /  60  60  30  30  40
WAYNESBORO  97  74  96  75  93 /  40  40  30  30  40
CAMDEN      95  74  96  76  92 /  50  50  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   97  75  92  75  91 /  60  60  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALDWIN CENTRAL-
     BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-MOBILE
     COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ESCAMBIA COASTAL-
     ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA
     COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

BUTTS




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291519 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1019 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...TO DROP HEAT ADVISORY AND RAISE POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS EVEN MORE SATURATED TODAY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL TN SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN AL. SCATTERED TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN FORMING THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN NW AL ESPECIALLY. MORE ACTIVITY CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM IN
SOUTHERN TN...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO NW AL LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON
THE EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC FLOW PROGGED BY MODELS...BELIEVE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO PRIMARILY NW AL AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE
I-65 CORRIDOR THROUGH AROUND NOON OR 1 PM. THEN EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FURTHER EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE
MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND BETTER INSOLATION HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE SLIGHTLY WEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...BUT NOT MUCH.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER AND ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL
HELP TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NW ALABAMA.
ALSO THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 99 AND 104 DEGREES. THUS THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OTHERWISE WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND A FAIRLY DECENT CONVERGENCE IN
PLACE...RAISED POPS TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT WEST OF I-65 IN THE MORNING
AND 30-40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 25 KT WINDS AT 850 MB...COULD
SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 715 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...INITIAL ROUND OF EARLY MORNING SHRA ACTIVITY HAS
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH BKN/OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS
IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL SHRA ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
IMMEDIATELY E OF HSV BUT WILL LIKELY MISS THE TERMINAL. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A FAIRLY RAPID EROSION OF AS/CS CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
FROM THE NE EARLY IN TAF PERIOD...ALLOWING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO SUPPORT HIGHER THREAT FOR TSRA BTWN 15-00Z. AFTER A BREAK
THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD THRU MID TN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY APPROACH THE TERMINALS BY END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY TOO
GREAT TO INCLUDE VCTS ATTM. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF SCT CU BENEATH BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NW AT 5-10 KTS TODAY...BUT WILL VEER TO NNE
OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291215
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
715 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 439 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
AS OF 09Z OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND HAS GENERATED A FEW
SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO AND WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MORE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS NW ALABAMA AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME REMNANT BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AL INTO SE
MO. IN ADDITION TO THIS A CU FIELD WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN TN ALONG AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS HAS
BEEN WELL REPRESENTED IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND OTHER
HIRES GUIDANCE WHICH ALL SHOW ACTIVITY BEGINNING BETWEEN 09-12Z THIS
MORNING.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPS PEAKING
IN THE MID 90S WITH A FEW UPPER 90S LIKELY IN SPOTS. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE GREATEST FROM ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR WESTWARD AND BE
BETWEEN 104-107. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS A 25 TO 30 KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THESE WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED SHEAR FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET...WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON EVENING WITH WIND THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TODAY/THURSDAY AND
SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD. AS THIS HAPPENS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT ALL HAVE IT SOUTH BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH ABOVE 90
DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

FINALLY SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 90 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD AND SEND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT BACK TO THE S/SW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN SENDING A FEW SYSTEMS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRINGING WEAK FRONTS TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND WE LIKELY WONT SEE MUCH OUT OF ANY OF
THESE WEAK FRONTS AND KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...INITIAL ROUND OF EARLY MORNING SHRA ACTIVITY HAS
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH BKN/OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS
IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL SHRA ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
IMMEDIATELY E OF HSV BUT WILL LIKELY MISS THE TERMINAL. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A FAIRLY RAPID EROSION OF AS/CS CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
FROM THE NE EARLY IN TAF PERIOD...ALLOWING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO SUPPORT HIGHER THREAT FOR TSRA BTWN 15-00Z. AFTER A BREAK
THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD THRU MID TN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY APPROACH THE TERMINALS BY END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY TOO
GREAT TO INCLUDE VCTS ATTM. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF SCT CU BENEATH BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NW AT 5-10 KTS TODAY...BUT WILL VEER TO NNE
OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291215
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
715 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 439 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
AS OF 09Z OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND HAS GENERATED A FEW
SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO AND WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MORE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS NW ALABAMA AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME REMNANT BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AL INTO SE
MO. IN ADDITION TO THIS A CU FIELD WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN TN ALONG AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS HAS
BEEN WELL REPRESENTED IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND OTHER
HIRES GUIDANCE WHICH ALL SHOW ACTIVITY BEGINNING BETWEEN 09-12Z THIS
MORNING.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPS PEAKING
IN THE MID 90S WITH A FEW UPPER 90S LIKELY IN SPOTS. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE GREATEST FROM ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR WESTWARD AND BE
BETWEEN 104-107. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS A 25 TO 30 KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THESE WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED SHEAR FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET...WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON EVENING WITH WIND THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TODAY/THURSDAY AND
SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD. AS THIS HAPPENS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT ALL HAVE IT SOUTH BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH ABOVE 90
DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

FINALLY SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 90 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD AND SEND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT BACK TO THE S/SW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN SENDING A FEW SYSTEMS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRINGING WEAK FRONTS TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND WE LIKELY WONT SEE MUCH OUT OF ANY OF
THESE WEAK FRONTS AND KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...INITIAL ROUND OF EARLY MORNING SHRA ACTIVITY HAS
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH BKN/OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS
IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL SHRA ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
IMMEDIATELY E OF HSV BUT WILL LIKELY MISS THE TERMINAL. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A FAIRLY RAPID EROSION OF AS/CS CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
FROM THE NE EARLY IN TAF PERIOD...ALLOWING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO SUPPORT HIGHER THREAT FOR TSRA BTWN 15-00Z. AFTER A BREAK
THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD THRU MID TN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY APPROACH THE TERMINALS BY END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY TOO
GREAT TO INCLUDE VCTS ATTM. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF SCT CU BENEATH BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NW AT 5-10 KTS TODAY...BUT WILL VEER TO NNE
OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291215
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
715 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 439 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
AS OF 09Z OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND HAS GENERATED A FEW
SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO AND WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MORE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS NW ALABAMA AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME REMNANT BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AL INTO SE
MO. IN ADDITION TO THIS A CU FIELD WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN TN ALONG AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS HAS
BEEN WELL REPRESENTED IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND OTHER
HIRES GUIDANCE WHICH ALL SHOW ACTIVITY BEGINNING BETWEEN 09-12Z THIS
MORNING.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPS PEAKING
IN THE MID 90S WITH A FEW UPPER 90S LIKELY IN SPOTS. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE GREATEST FROM ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR WESTWARD AND BE
BETWEEN 104-107. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS A 25 TO 30 KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THESE WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED SHEAR FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET...WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON EVENING WITH WIND THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TODAY/THURSDAY AND
SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD. AS THIS HAPPENS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT ALL HAVE IT SOUTH BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH ABOVE 90
DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

FINALLY SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 90 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD AND SEND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT BACK TO THE S/SW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN SENDING A FEW SYSTEMS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRINGING WEAK FRONTS TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND WE LIKELY WONT SEE MUCH OUT OF ANY OF
THESE WEAK FRONTS AND KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...INITIAL ROUND OF EARLY MORNING SHRA ACTIVITY HAS
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH BKN/OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS
IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL SHRA ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
IMMEDIATELY E OF HSV BUT WILL LIKELY MISS THE TERMINAL. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A FAIRLY RAPID EROSION OF AS/CS CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
FROM THE NE EARLY IN TAF PERIOD...ALLOWING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO SUPPORT HIGHER THREAT FOR TSRA BTWN 15-00Z. AFTER A BREAK
THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD THRU MID TN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY APPROACH THE TERMINALS BY END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY TOO
GREAT TO INCLUDE VCTS ATTM. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF SCT CU BENEATH BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NW AT 5-10 KTS TODAY...BUT WILL VEER TO NNE
OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291210
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
710 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY.
SOME ORGANIZATION OR GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 105 DEGREES DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.

THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...AS HIGH
AS 2.3 INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURPRISINGLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE QPF
FROM SEVERAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY EXIT THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR BR FOR AN HOUR THIS MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN
AROUND 11Z...CURRENTLY HAVE VFR FORECAST THE REMAINING PERIODS.
DID MENTION VCSH AND VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE REGARDING THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIMING AT EACH SPECIFIC
LOCATION. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IMPULSES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT INTO A MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 93
DEGREES...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND SHOULD NOT HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  75  92  71  91 /  50  30  50  20  10
ANNISTON    93  75  93  73  91 /  50  30  60  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  95  76  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  75  95  74  94 /  50  30  60  20  10
CALERA      94  75  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
AUBURN      94  75  92  74  90 /  50  30  60  30  40
MONTGOMERY  96  76  96  76  93 /  50  30  60  30  30
TROY        96  75  94  75  91 /  50  30  60  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-
GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 291210
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
710 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY.
SOME ORGANIZATION OR GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 105 DEGREES DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.

THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...AS HIGH
AS 2.3 INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURPRISINGLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE QPF
FROM SEVERAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY EXIT THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR BR FOR AN HOUR THIS MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN
AROUND 11Z...CURRENTLY HAVE VFR FORECAST THE REMAINING PERIODS.
DID MENTION VCSH AND VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE REGARDING THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIMING AT EACH SPECIFIC
LOCATION. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IMPULSES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT INTO A MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 93
DEGREES...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND SHOULD NOT HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  75  92  71  91 /  50  30  50  20  10
ANNISTON    93  75  93  73  91 /  50  30  60  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  95  76  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  75  95  74  94 /  50  30  60  20  10
CALERA      94  75  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
AUBURN      94  75  92  74  90 /  50  30  60  30  40
MONTGOMERY  96  76  96  76  93 /  50  30  60  30  30
TROY        96  75  94  75  91 /  50  30  60  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-
GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291210
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
710 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY.
SOME ORGANIZATION OR GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 105 DEGREES DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.

THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...AS HIGH
AS 2.3 INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURPRISINGLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE QPF
FROM SEVERAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY EXIT THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR BR FOR AN HOUR THIS MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN
AROUND 11Z...CURRENTLY HAVE VFR FORECAST THE REMAINING PERIODS.
DID MENTION VCSH AND VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE REGARDING THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIMING AT EACH SPECIFIC
LOCATION. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IMPULSES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT INTO A MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 93
DEGREES...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND SHOULD NOT HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  75  92  71  91 /  50  30  50  20  10
ANNISTON    93  75  93  73  91 /  50  30  60  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  95  76  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  75  95  74  94 /  50  30  60  20  10
CALERA      94  75  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
AUBURN      94  75  92  74  90 /  50  30  60  30  40
MONTGOMERY  96  76  96  76  93 /  50  30  60  30  30
TROY        96  75  94  75  91 /  50  30  60  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-
GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291210
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
710 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY.
SOME ORGANIZATION OR GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 105 DEGREES DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.

THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...AS HIGH
AS 2.3 INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURPRISINGLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE QPF
FROM SEVERAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY EXIT THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR BR FOR AN HOUR THIS MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN
AROUND 11Z...CURRENTLY HAVE VFR FORECAST THE REMAINING PERIODS.
DID MENTION VCSH AND VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE REGARDING THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIMING AT EACH SPECIFIC
LOCATION. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IMPULSES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT INTO A MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 93
DEGREES...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND SHOULD NOT HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  75  92  71  91 /  50  30  50  20  10
ANNISTON    93  75  93  73  91 /  50  30  60  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  95  76  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  75  95  74  94 /  50  30  60  20  10
CALERA      94  75  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
AUBURN      94  75  92  74  90 /  50  30  60  30  40
MONTGOMERY  96  76  96  76  93 /  50  30  60  30  30
TROY        96  75  94  75  91 /  50  30  60  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-
GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291210
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
710 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY.
SOME ORGANIZATION OR GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 105 DEGREES DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.

THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...AS HIGH
AS 2.3 INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURPRISINGLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE QPF
FROM SEVERAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY EXIT THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR BR FOR AN HOUR THIS MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN
AROUND 11Z...CURRENTLY HAVE VFR FORECAST THE REMAINING PERIODS.
DID MENTION VCSH AND VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE REGARDING THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIMING AT EACH SPECIFIC
LOCATION. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IMPULSES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT INTO A MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 93
DEGREES...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND SHOULD NOT HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  75  92  71  91 /  50  30  50  20  10
ANNISTON    93  75  93  73  91 /  50  30  60  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  95  76  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  75  95  74  94 /  50  30  60  20  10
CALERA      94  75  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
AUBURN      94  75  92  74  90 /  50  30  60  30  40
MONTGOMERY  96  76  96  76  93 /  50  30  60  30  30
TROY        96  75  94  75  91 /  50  30  60  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-
GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291210
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
710 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY.
SOME ORGANIZATION OR GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 105 DEGREES DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.

THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...AS HIGH
AS 2.3 INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURPRISINGLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE QPF
FROM SEVERAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY EXIT THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR BR FOR AN HOUR THIS MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN
AROUND 11Z...CURRENTLY HAVE VFR FORECAST THE REMAINING PERIODS.
DID MENTION VCSH AND VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE REGARDING THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIMING AT EACH SPECIFIC
LOCATION. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IMPULSES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT INTO A MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 93
DEGREES...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND SHOULD NOT HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  75  92  71  91 /  50  30  50  20  10
ANNISTON    93  75  93  73  91 /  50  30  60  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  95  76  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  75  95  74  94 /  50  30  60  20  10
CALERA      94  75  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
AUBURN      94  75  92  74  90 /  50  30  60  30  40
MONTGOMERY  96  76  96  76  93 /  50  30  60  30  30
TROY        96  75  94  75  91 /  50  30  60  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-
GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290939
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
439 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 09Z OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND HAS GENERATED A FEW
SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO AND WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MORE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS NW ALABAMA AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME REMNANT BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AL INTO SE
MO. IN ADDITION TO THIS A CU FIELD WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN TN ALONG AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS HAS
BEEN WELL REPRESENTED IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND OTHER
HIRES GUIDANCE WHICH ALL SHOW ACTIVITY BEGINNING BETWEEN 09-12Z THIS
MORNING.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPS PEAKING
IN THE MID 90S WITH A FEW UPPER 90S LIKELY IN SPOTS. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE GREATEST FROM ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR WESTWARD AND BE
BETWEEN 104-107. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS A 25 TO 30 KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THESE WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED SHEAR FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET...WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON EVENING WITH WIND THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TODAY/THURSDAY AND
SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD. AS THIS HAPPENS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT ALL HAVE IT SOUTH BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH ABOVE 90
DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

FINALLY SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 90 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD AND SEND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT BACK TO THE S/SW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN SENDING A FEW SYSTEMS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRINGING WEAK FRONTS TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND WE LIKELY WONT SEE MUCH OUT OF ANY OF
THESE WEAK FRONTS AND KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1255 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

TSRA HAVE DIMINISHED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TAF SITES.
FOG FORMATION IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH 29/13Z DUE TO RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR
BTWN 29/09Z-29/13Z BUT FOG IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED OVER NE AL (NEAR
K4A6/K4A9). THEN, TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 29/18Z AT TIMES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN TAFS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL OUTPUT.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    96  76  94  70 /  30  30  40  10
SHOALS        96  76  93  70 /  30  30  40  10
VINEMONT      92  73  90  69 /  30  30  40  20
FAYETTEVILLE  92  74  89  68 /  30  30  40  10
ALBERTVILLE   92  73  91  70 /  30  30  40  20
FORT PAYNE    92  72  90  68 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290915
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
415 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY.
SOME ORGANIZATION OR GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 105 DEGREES DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.

THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...AS HIGH
AS 2.3 INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURPRISINGLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE QPF
FROM SEVERAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY EXIT THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA
HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POSSIBILITY
AS NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT. WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MONITOR FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE. VIS AT EET AND ANB MIGHT NEED ADJUSTING DOWNWARD GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN RECEIVED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENT TRENDS ARE REASONABLE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO START DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER INCREASING BY MID DAY.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  75  92  71  91 /  40  30  50  20  10
ANNISTON    93  75  93  73  91 /  40  30  60  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  95  76  93  72  92 /  40  30  60  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  75  95  74  94 /  50  30  60  20  10
CALERA      94  75  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
AUBURN      94  75  92  74  90 /  50  30  60  30  40
MONTGOMERY  96  76  96  76  93 /  50  30  60  30  30
TROY        96  75  94  75  91 /  50  30  60  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-
GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290915
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
415 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY.
SOME ORGANIZATION OR GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 105 DEGREES DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.

THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...AS HIGH
AS 2.3 INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURPRISINGLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE QPF
FROM SEVERAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY EXIT THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA
HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POSSIBILITY
AS NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT. WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MONITOR FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE. VIS AT EET AND ANB MIGHT NEED ADJUSTING DOWNWARD GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN RECEIVED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENT TRENDS ARE REASONABLE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO START DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER INCREASING BY MID DAY.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  75  92  71  91 /  40  30  50  20  10
ANNISTON    93  75  93  73  91 /  40  30  60  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  95  76  93  72  92 /  40  30  60  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  75  95  74  94 /  50  30  60  20  10
CALERA      94  75  93  72  92 /  50  30  60  20  10
AUBURN      94  75  92  74  90 /  50  30  60  30  40
MONTGOMERY  96  76  96  76  93 /  50  30  60  30  30
TROY        96  75  94  75  91 /  50  30  60  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-
GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 290900
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...BIGGEST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE TENN RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE HIGH RES END OF THE GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW, ETC) ARE
ADVERTISING AN MCS SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN AL TODAY...THEN MOVING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEX INTO TONIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING THE USUAL SHRA/TSRA FIRING OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EITHER WAY ONE CUTS IT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA EXPECTED TODAY
OVER MOST OF THE FA...LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TEMPS...WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL CONTINUE. COMBINED WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS (PRECIP H20
VALUES > 2")...HEAT INDICES RISING TO AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY
IS EXPECTED...SO CONTINUING THE PREVIOUS ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY.

ON TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER...WITH A VERY HOT/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS (CAPES
TOPPING 3500J/KG) OVER THE AREA TODAY...ANTICIPATING SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
EXPECTED THREAT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE MCS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. /16

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS
FROM TEXAS...EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE BROAD HIGH LEVEL
TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BEING A
FOCUS FOR ASCENT...COUPLED WITH HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DAILY
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING.
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0...TO AS HIGH 2.3 INCHES BEING
WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE END OF JULY (1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE QUITE
EFFICIENT IN DROPPING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. OTHER HAZARDS IN AND
NEAR STORMS WILL BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ELSEWHERE...MID 90S IN THE FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT...MID TO UPPER 70S. /10

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE EROSION OF THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADVANCE
BY SUNDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL TREND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE TROF OUT OVER THE GULF AND A
REDUCTION IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STAND
AT 20% OR LESS.

DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. SOME UPWARD
MODERATION BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES IN THESE NUMBERS IS FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /16

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX WILL
CREATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT...TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OPEN WATERS...BRINGING A MORE MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  75  92  77  91 /  60  40  40  30  50
PENSACOLA   96  77  91  78  89 /  60  50  40  30  40
DESTIN      93  79  89  79  87 /  50  50  50  30  40
EVERGREEN   96  74  94  75  93 /  60  40  30  30  40
WAYNESBORO  97  74  96  75  93 /  40  40  30  30  40
CAMDEN      95  74  96  76  92 /  50  50  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   97  75  92  75  91 /  60  50  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     BALDWIN CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-
     CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE
     CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-
     WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA
     INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290555 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1255 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS S TN AND N AL EARLIER
THIS EVENING/LATE AFTERNOON HAVE FOR THE MOST PART DIMINISHED.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCED GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH PROVIDING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER LAWRENCE COUNTY AS STORMS DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TN AND MAY GRAZE NW AL BTWN 03-06Z. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POP/WX FORECAST TO REFLECT A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS
OVER NW AL. WITH MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AL/S TN STABILIZED FROM
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY THERE.
HOWEVER, HIGHER INSTABILITY DOES EXIST OVER NW AL. SO, IF THIS
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY AND CHARACTER, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LIKELY BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS.

OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT DUE TO
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER. THIS IS APPARENT
FROM THE SFC OBS AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THOUGH WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

TSRA HAVE DIMINISHED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TAF SITES.
FOG FORMATION IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH 29/13Z DUE TO RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR
BTWN 29/09Z-29/13Z BUT FOG IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED OVER NE AL (NEAR
K4A6/K4A9). THEN, TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 29/18Z AT TIMES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN TAFS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL OUTPUT.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290555 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1255 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS S TN AND N AL EARLIER
THIS EVENING/LATE AFTERNOON HAVE FOR THE MOST PART DIMINISHED.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCED GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH PROVIDING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER LAWRENCE COUNTY AS STORMS DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TN AND MAY GRAZE NW AL BTWN 03-06Z. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POP/WX FORECAST TO REFLECT A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS
OVER NW AL. WITH MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AL/S TN STABILIZED FROM
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY THERE.
HOWEVER, HIGHER INSTABILITY DOES EXIST OVER NW AL. SO, IF THIS
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY AND CHARACTER, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LIKELY BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS.

OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT DUE TO
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER. THIS IS APPARENT
FROM THE SFC OBS AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THOUGH WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

TSRA HAVE DIMINISHED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TAF SITES.
FOG FORMATION IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH 29/13Z DUE TO RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR
BTWN 29/09Z-29/13Z BUT FOG IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED OVER NE AL (NEAR
K4A6/K4A9). THEN, TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 29/18Z AT TIMES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN TAFS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL OUTPUT.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290555 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1255 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS S TN AND N AL EARLIER
THIS EVENING/LATE AFTERNOON HAVE FOR THE MOST PART DIMINISHED.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCED GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH PROVIDING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER LAWRENCE COUNTY AS STORMS DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TN AND MAY GRAZE NW AL BTWN 03-06Z. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POP/WX FORECAST TO REFLECT A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS
OVER NW AL. WITH MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AL/S TN STABILIZED FROM
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY THERE.
HOWEVER, HIGHER INSTABILITY DOES EXIST OVER NW AL. SO, IF THIS
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY AND CHARACTER, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LIKELY BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS.

OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT DUE TO
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER. THIS IS APPARENT
FROM THE SFC OBS AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THOUGH WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

TSRA HAVE DIMINISHED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TAF SITES.
FOG FORMATION IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH 29/13Z DUE TO RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR
BTWN 29/09Z-29/13Z BUT FOG IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED OVER NE AL (NEAR
K4A6/K4A9). THEN, TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 29/18Z AT TIMES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN TAFS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL OUTPUT.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290555 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1255 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS S TN AND N AL EARLIER
THIS EVENING/LATE AFTERNOON HAVE FOR THE MOST PART DIMINISHED.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCED GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH PROVIDING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER LAWRENCE COUNTY AS STORMS DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TN AND MAY GRAZE NW AL BTWN 03-06Z. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POP/WX FORECAST TO REFLECT A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS
OVER NW AL. WITH MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AL/S TN STABILIZED FROM
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY THERE.
HOWEVER, HIGHER INSTABILITY DOES EXIST OVER NW AL. SO, IF THIS
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY AND CHARACTER, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LIKELY BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS.

OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT DUE TO
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER. THIS IS APPARENT
FROM THE SFC OBS AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THOUGH WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

TSRA HAVE DIMINISHED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TAF SITES.
FOG FORMATION IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH 29/13Z DUE TO RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR
BTWN 29/09Z-29/13Z BUT FOG IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED OVER NE AL (NEAR
K4A6/K4A9). THEN, TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 29/18Z AT TIMES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN TAFS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL OUTPUT.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290555 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1255 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS S TN AND N AL EARLIER
THIS EVENING/LATE AFTERNOON HAVE FOR THE MOST PART DIMINISHED.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCED GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH PROVIDING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER LAWRENCE COUNTY AS STORMS DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TN AND MAY GRAZE NW AL BTWN 03-06Z. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POP/WX FORECAST TO REFLECT A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS
OVER NW AL. WITH MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AL/S TN STABILIZED FROM
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY THERE.
HOWEVER, HIGHER INSTABILITY DOES EXIST OVER NW AL. SO, IF THIS
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY AND CHARACTER, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LIKELY BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS.

OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT DUE TO
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER. THIS IS APPARENT
FROM THE SFC OBS AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THOUGH WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

TSRA HAVE DIMINISHED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TAF SITES.
FOG FORMATION IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH 29/13Z DUE TO RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR
BTWN 29/09Z-29/13Z BUT FOG IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED OVER NE AL (NEAR
K4A6/K4A9). THEN, TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 29/18Z AT TIMES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN TAFS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL OUTPUT.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290555 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1255 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS S TN AND N AL EARLIER
THIS EVENING/LATE AFTERNOON HAVE FOR THE MOST PART DIMINISHED.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCED GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH PROVIDING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER LAWRENCE COUNTY AS STORMS DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TN AND MAY GRAZE NW AL BTWN 03-06Z. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POP/WX FORECAST TO REFLECT A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS
OVER NW AL. WITH MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AL/S TN STABILIZED FROM
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY THERE.
HOWEVER, HIGHER INSTABILITY DOES EXIST OVER NW AL. SO, IF THIS
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY AND CHARACTER, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LIKELY BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS.

OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT DUE TO
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER. THIS IS APPARENT
FROM THE SFC OBS AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THOUGH WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

TSRA HAVE DIMINISHED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TAF SITES.
FOG FORMATION IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH 29/13Z DUE TO RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR
BTWN 29/09Z-29/13Z BUT FOG IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED OVER NE AL (NEAR
K4A6/K4A9). THEN, TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 29/18Z AT TIMES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN TAFS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL OUTPUT.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 290447 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 290447 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290443 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
STATE...LEAVING ONLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. THE STORMS FROM
EARLIER PRODUCED VERY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND WERE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ONE SMALL STORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT PRODUCED 1.07 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY 30 MINUTES
JUST AS AN EXAMPLE. ONE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT RESIDES
IN WHAT THE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN TENNESSEE DOES FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. IT HAS CERTAINLY WEAKENED FROM WHAT IT WAS IN CENTRAL
TENNESSEE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY STILL OUT THERE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON THE
ORDER OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE. SO...IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CAN CONTINUE TO LIFT PARCELS TO THE LFC WE COULD
DEFINITELY SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME OF THE LINE HOLDING
TOGETHER INTO MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES WITH THE OUTFLOW
TRIGGERING SCATTERED STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS TO 30-40% IN OUR FAR NW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...EVERYONE ELSE STAYS DRY AND MUGGY THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAD RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA
HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POSSIBILITY
AS NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT. WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MONITOR FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE. VIS AT EET AND ANB MIGHT NEED ADJUSTING DOWNWARD GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN RECEIVED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENT TRENDS ARE REASONABLE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO START DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER INCREASING BY MID DAY.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  75  92  71 /  10  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    75  93  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  10  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  10  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290443 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
STATE...LEAVING ONLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. THE STORMS FROM
EARLIER PRODUCED VERY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND WERE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ONE SMALL STORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT PRODUCED 1.07 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY 30 MINUTES
JUST AS AN EXAMPLE. ONE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT RESIDES
IN WHAT THE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN TENNESSEE DOES FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. IT HAS CERTAINLY WEAKENED FROM WHAT IT WAS IN CENTRAL
TENNESSEE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY STILL OUT THERE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON THE
ORDER OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE. SO...IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CAN CONTINUE TO LIFT PARCELS TO THE LFC WE COULD
DEFINITELY SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME OF THE LINE HOLDING
TOGETHER INTO MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES WITH THE OUTFLOW
TRIGGERING SCATTERED STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS TO 30-40% IN OUR FAR NW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...EVERYONE ELSE STAYS DRY AND MUGGY THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAD RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA
HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POSSIBILITY
AS NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT. WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MONITOR FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE. VIS AT EET AND ANB MIGHT NEED ADJUSTING DOWNWARD GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN RECEIVED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENT TRENDS ARE REASONABLE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO START DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER INCREASING BY MID DAY.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  75  92  71 /  10  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    75  93  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  10  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  10  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290443 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
STATE...LEAVING ONLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. THE STORMS FROM
EARLIER PRODUCED VERY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND WERE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ONE SMALL STORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT PRODUCED 1.07 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY 30 MINUTES
JUST AS AN EXAMPLE. ONE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT RESIDES
IN WHAT THE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN TENNESSEE DOES FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. IT HAS CERTAINLY WEAKENED FROM WHAT IT WAS IN CENTRAL
TENNESSEE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY STILL OUT THERE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON THE
ORDER OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE. SO...IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CAN CONTINUE TO LIFT PARCELS TO THE LFC WE COULD
DEFINITELY SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME OF THE LINE HOLDING
TOGETHER INTO MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES WITH THE OUTFLOW
TRIGGERING SCATTERED STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS TO 30-40% IN OUR FAR NW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...EVERYONE ELSE STAYS DRY AND MUGGY THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAD RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA
HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POSSIBILITY
AS NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT. WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MONITOR FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE. VIS AT EET AND ANB MIGHT NEED ADJUSTING DOWNWARD GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN RECEIVED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENT TRENDS ARE REASONABLE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO START DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER INCREASING BY MID DAY.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  75  92  71 /  10  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    75  93  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  10  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  10  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290333 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1027 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
STATE...LEAVING ONLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. THE STORMS FROM
EARLIER PRODUCED VERY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND WERE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ONE SMALL STORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT PRODUCED 1.07 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY 30 MINUTES
JUST AS AN EXAMPLE. ONE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT RESIDES
IN WHAT THE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN TENNESSEE DOES FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. IT HAS CERTAINLY WEAKENED FROM WHAT IT WAS IN CENTRAL
TENNESSEE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY STILL OUT THERE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON THE
ORDER OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE. SO...IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CAN CONTINUE TO LIFT PARCELS TO THE LFC WE COULD
DEFINITELY SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME OF THE LINE HOLDING
TOGETHER INTO MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES WITH THE OUTFLOW
TRIGGERING SCATTERED STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS TO 30-40% IN OUR FAR NW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...EVERYONE ELSE STAYS DRY AND MUGGY THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAD RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TERMINALS WHERE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OR
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...AND INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. GIVEN RAINFALL
AT EET AND ANB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MIGHT NEED TO LOWER VIS BUT
WILL WAIT ON TRENDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW.
EXPECT CU FIELD TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  75  92  71 /  10  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    75  93  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  10  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  10  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290333 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1027 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
STATE...LEAVING ONLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. THE STORMS FROM
EARLIER PRODUCED VERY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND WERE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ONE SMALL STORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT PRODUCED 1.07 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY 30 MINUTES
JUST AS AN EXAMPLE. ONE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT RESIDES
IN WHAT THE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN TENNESSEE DOES FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. IT HAS CERTAINLY WEAKENED FROM WHAT IT WAS IN CENTRAL
TENNESSEE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY STILL OUT THERE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON THE
ORDER OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE. SO...IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CAN CONTINUE TO LIFT PARCELS TO THE LFC WE COULD
DEFINITELY SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME OF THE LINE HOLDING
TOGETHER INTO MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES WITH THE OUTFLOW
TRIGGERING SCATTERED STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS TO 30-40% IN OUR FAR NW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...EVERYONE ELSE STAYS DRY AND MUGGY THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAD RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TERMINALS WHERE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OR
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...AND INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. GIVEN RAINFALL
AT EET AND ANB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MIGHT NEED TO LOWER VIS BUT
WILL WAIT ON TRENDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW.
EXPECT CU FIELD TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  75  92  71 /  10  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    75  93  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  10  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  10  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1027 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
STATE...LEAVING ONLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. THE STORMS FROM
EARLIER PRODUCED VERY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND WERE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ONE SMALL STORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT PRODUCED 1.07 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY 30 MINUTES
JUST AS AN EXAMPLE. ONE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT RESIDES
IN WHAT THE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN TENNESSEE DOES FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. IT HAS CERTAINLY WEAKENED FROM WHAT IT WAS IN CENTRAL
TENNESSEE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY STILL OUT THERE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON THE
ORDER OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE. SO...IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CAN CONTINUE TO LIFT PARCELS TO THE LFC WE COULD
DEFINITELY SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME OF THE LINE HOLDING
TOGETHER INTO MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES WITH THE OUTFLOW
TRIGGERING SCATTERED STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS TO 30-40% IN OUR FAR NW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...EVERYONE ELSE STAYS DRY AND MUGGY THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAD RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TERMINALS WHERE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OR
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...AND INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. GIVEN RAINFALL
AT EET AND ANB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MIGHT NEED TO LOWER VIS BUT
WILL WAIT ON TRENDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW.
EXPECT CU FIELD TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE AREA NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  75  92  71 /  10  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    75  93  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  10  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  10  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1027 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
STATE...LEAVING ONLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. THE STORMS FROM
EARLIER PRODUCED VERY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND WERE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ONE SMALL STORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT PRODUCED 1.07 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY 30 MINUTES
JUST AS AN EXAMPLE. ONE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT RESIDES
IN WHAT THE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN TENNESSEE DOES FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. IT HAS CERTAINLY WEAKENED FROM WHAT IT WAS IN CENTRAL
TENNESSEE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY STILL OUT THERE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON THE
ORDER OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE. SO...IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CAN CONTINUE TO LIFT PARCELS TO THE LFC WE COULD
DEFINITELY SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME OF THE LINE HOLDING
TOGETHER INTO MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES WITH THE OUTFLOW
TRIGGERING SCATTERED STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS TO 30-40% IN OUR FAR NW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...EVERYONE ELSE STAYS DRY AND MUGGY THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAD RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TERMINALS WHERE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OR
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...AND INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. GIVEN RAINFALL
AT EET AND ANB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MIGHT NEED TO LOWER VIS BUT
WILL WAIT ON TRENDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW.
EXPECT CU FIELD TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE AREA NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  75  92  71 /  10  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    75  93  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  10  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  10  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1027 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
STATE...LEAVING ONLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. THE STORMS FROM
EARLIER PRODUCED VERY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND WERE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ONE SMALL STORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT PRODUCED 1.07 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY 30 MINUTES
JUST AS AN EXAMPLE. ONE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT RESIDES
IN WHAT THE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN TENNESSEE DOES FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. IT HAS CERTAINLY WEAKENED FROM WHAT IT WAS IN CENTRAL
TENNESSEE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY STILL OUT THERE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON THE
ORDER OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE. SO...IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CAN CONTINUE TO LIFT PARCELS TO THE LFC WE COULD
DEFINITELY SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME OF THE LINE HOLDING
TOGETHER INTO MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES WITH THE OUTFLOW
TRIGGERING SCATTERED STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS TO 30-40% IN OUR FAR NW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...EVERYONE ELSE STAYS DRY AND MUGGY THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAD RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TERMINALS WHERE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OR
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...AND INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. GIVEN RAINFALL
AT EET AND ANB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MIGHT NEED TO LOWER VIS BUT
WILL WAIT ON TRENDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW.
EXPECT CU FIELD TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE AREA NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  75  92  71 /  10  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    75  93  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  10  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  10  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1027 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
STATE...LEAVING ONLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. THE STORMS FROM
EARLIER PRODUCED VERY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND WERE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ONE SMALL STORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT PRODUCED 1.07 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY 30 MINUTES
JUST AS AN EXAMPLE. ONE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT RESIDES
IN WHAT THE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN TENNESSEE DOES FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. IT HAS CERTAINLY WEAKENED FROM WHAT IT WAS IN CENTRAL
TENNESSEE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY STILL OUT THERE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON THE
ORDER OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE. SO...IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CAN CONTINUE TO LIFT PARCELS TO THE LFC WE COULD
DEFINITELY SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME OF THE LINE HOLDING
TOGETHER INTO MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES WITH THE OUTFLOW
TRIGGERING SCATTERED STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS TO 30-40% IN OUR FAR NW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...EVERYONE ELSE STAYS DRY AND MUGGY THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAD RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TERMINALS WHERE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OR
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...AND INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. GIVEN RAINFALL
AT EET AND ANB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MIGHT NEED TO LOWER VIS BUT
WILL WAIT ON TRENDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW.
EXPECT CU FIELD TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE AREA NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  94  75  92  71 /  10  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    75  93  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  10  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  10  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290230 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AND ADJUSTMENTS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS S TN AND N AL EARLIER
THIS EVENING/LATE AFTERNOON HAVE FOR THE MOST PART DIMINISHED.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCED GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH PROVIDING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER LAWRENCE COUNTY AS STORMS DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TN AND MAY GRAZE NW AL BTWN 03-06Z. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POP/WX FORECAST TO REFLECT A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS
OVER NW AL. WITH MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AL/S TN STABILIZED FROM
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY THERE.
HOWEVER, HIGHER INSTABILITY DOES EXIST OVER NW AL. SO, IF THIS
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY AND CHARACTER, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LIKELY BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS.

OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT DUE TO
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER. THIS IS APPARENT
FROM THE SFC OBS AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THOUGH WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

SCT TSRA MAY IMPACT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH 05Z DUE TO SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS N AL. WILL CONTINUE TEMPO FOR KHSV THROUGH 02Z AS A
FEW TSRA APPROACH THE TERMINAL. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY -TSRA. AFTER 05Z, STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNLESS FOG FORMATION OCCURS WHERE STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
29/16Z-30/00Z BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290230 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AND ADJUSTMENTS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS S TN AND N AL EARLIER
THIS EVENING/LATE AFTERNOON HAVE FOR THE MOST PART DIMINISHED.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCED GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH PROVIDING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER LAWRENCE COUNTY AS STORMS DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TN AND MAY GRAZE NW AL BTWN 03-06Z. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POP/WX FORECAST TO REFLECT A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS
OVER NW AL. WITH MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AL/S TN STABILIZED FROM
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY THERE.
HOWEVER, HIGHER INSTABILITY DOES EXIST OVER NW AL. SO, IF THIS
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY AND CHARACTER, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LIKELY BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS.

OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT DUE TO
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER. THIS IS APPARENT
FROM THE SFC OBS AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THOUGH WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

SCT TSRA MAY IMPACT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH 05Z DUE TO SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS N AL. WILL CONTINUE TEMPO FOR KHSV THROUGH 02Z AS A
FEW TSRA APPROACH THE TERMINAL. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY -TSRA. AFTER 05Z, STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNLESS FOG FORMATION OCCURS WHERE STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
29/16Z-30/00Z BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290230 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AND ADJUSTMENTS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS S TN AND N AL EARLIER
THIS EVENING/LATE AFTERNOON HAVE FOR THE MOST PART DIMINISHED.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCED GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH PROVIDING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER LAWRENCE COUNTY AS STORMS DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TN AND MAY GRAZE NW AL BTWN 03-06Z. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POP/WX FORECAST TO REFLECT A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS
OVER NW AL. WITH MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AL/S TN STABILIZED FROM
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY THERE.
HOWEVER, HIGHER INSTABILITY DOES EXIST OVER NW AL. SO, IF THIS
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY AND CHARACTER, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LIKELY BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS.

OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT DUE TO
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER. THIS IS APPARENT
FROM THE SFC OBS AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THOUGH WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

SCT TSRA MAY IMPACT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH 05Z DUE TO SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS N AL. WILL CONTINUE TEMPO FOR KHSV THROUGH 02Z AS A
FEW TSRA APPROACH THE TERMINAL. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY -TSRA. AFTER 05Z, STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNLESS FOG FORMATION OCCURS WHERE STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
29/16Z-30/00Z BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290230 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AND ADJUSTMENTS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS S TN AND N AL EARLIER
THIS EVENING/LATE AFTERNOON HAVE FOR THE MOST PART DIMINISHED.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCED GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH PROVIDING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER LAWRENCE COUNTY AS STORMS DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TN AND MAY GRAZE NW AL BTWN 03-06Z. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POP/WX FORECAST TO REFLECT A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS
OVER NW AL. WITH MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AL/S TN STABILIZED FROM
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY THERE.
HOWEVER, HIGHER INSTABILITY DOES EXIST OVER NW AL. SO, IF THIS
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY AND CHARACTER, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LIKELY BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS.

OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT DUE TO
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER. THIS IS APPARENT
FROM THE SFC OBS AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THOUGH WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

SCT TSRA MAY IMPACT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH 05Z DUE TO SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS N AL. WILL CONTINUE TEMPO FOR KHSV THROUGH 02Z AS A
FEW TSRA APPROACH THE TERMINAL. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY -TSRA. AFTER 05Z, STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNLESS FOG FORMATION OCCURS WHERE STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
29/16Z-30/00Z BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290004 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
704 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 254 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WERE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUICKLY DEVELOPING/DISSIPATING
AS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING
THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEST TENNESSEE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NAM MODEL IS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH AROUND 30 POPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY.

BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY-12Z THURSDAY...A TRAILING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE FROM ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY...INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MODELS SHIFT
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY-00Z
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO BRING IN LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS SOLUTION. HAVE HELD
BACK A TAD FROM INCREASING TEMPS ON SATURDAY UP TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO
SET UP. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO FORECAST GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

SCT TSRA MAY IMPACT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH 05Z DUE TO SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS N AL. WILL CONTINUE TEMPO FOR KHSV THROUGH 02Z AS A
FEW TSRA APPROACH THE TERMINAL. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY -TSRA. AFTER 05Z, STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNLESS FOG FORMATION OCCURS WHERE STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
29/16Z-30/00Z BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290004 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
704 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 254 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WERE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUICKLY DEVELOPING/DISSIPATING
AS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING
THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEST TENNESSEE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NAM MODEL IS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH AROUND 30 POPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY.

BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY-12Z THURSDAY...A TRAILING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE FROM ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY...INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MODELS SHIFT
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY-00Z
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO BRING IN LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS SOLUTION. HAVE HELD
BACK A TAD FROM INCREASING TEMPS ON SATURDAY UP TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO
SET UP. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO FORECAST GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

SCT TSRA MAY IMPACT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH 05Z DUE TO SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS N AL. WILL CONTINUE TEMPO FOR KHSV THROUGH 02Z AS A
FEW TSRA APPROACH THE TERMINAL. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY -TSRA. AFTER 05Z, STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNLESS FOG FORMATION OCCURS WHERE STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
29/16Z-30/00Z BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290004 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
704 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 254 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WERE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUICKLY DEVELOPING/DISSIPATING
AS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING
THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEST TENNESSEE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NAM MODEL IS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH AROUND 30 POPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY.

BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY-12Z THURSDAY...A TRAILING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE FROM ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY...INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MODELS SHIFT
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY-00Z
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO BRING IN LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS SOLUTION. HAVE HELD
BACK A TAD FROM INCREASING TEMPS ON SATURDAY UP TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO
SET UP. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO FORECAST GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

SCT TSRA MAY IMPACT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH 05Z DUE TO SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS N AL. WILL CONTINUE TEMPO FOR KHSV THROUGH 02Z AS A
FEW TSRA APPROACH THE TERMINAL. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY -TSRA. AFTER 05Z, STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNLESS FOG FORMATION OCCURS WHERE STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
29/16Z-30/00Z BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290004 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
704 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 254 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WERE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUICKLY DEVELOPING/DISSIPATING
AS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING
THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEST TENNESSEE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NAM MODEL IS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH AROUND 30 POPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY.

BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY-12Z THURSDAY...A TRAILING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE FROM ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY...INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MODELS SHIFT
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY-00Z
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO BRING IN LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS SOLUTION. HAVE HELD
BACK A TAD FROM INCREASING TEMPS ON SATURDAY UP TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO
SET UP. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO FORECAST GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

SCT TSRA MAY IMPACT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH 05Z DUE TO SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS N AL. WILL CONTINUE TEMPO FOR KHSV THROUGH 02Z AS A
FEW TSRA APPROACH THE TERMINAL. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY -TSRA. AFTER 05Z, STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNLESS FOG FORMATION OCCURS WHERE STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
29/16Z-30/00Z BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282355 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
655 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282355 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
655 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 282355 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
655 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282355 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
655 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 282347
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ONE AGAIN EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS CLIMBED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...WITH BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HIGH TOMORROW...AND WILL
GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY
METRO AREAS. AS WITH TODAY...NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE THUNDERSTORM
TRIGGERS AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES RULE THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE
BROADBRUSH POPS FOR TOMORROW...AND LET THE MORNING SHIFT TOMORROW
TRY TO IDENTIFY THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

AS WE DID EARLIER THIS SUMMER...I THINK WE`LL TAKE THE HEAT
ADVISORY ONE DAY AT A TIME WITH THIS GO `ROUND AS WELL. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES PLACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN A WEAKNESS
IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS SHOULD (SHOULD) KEEP CONDITIONS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. IF ANYTHING...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. SO EVEN IF AFTERNOON AIR TEMPS ARE
NOT ALL THAT LOWER...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP US BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO QUARTER OF THE CWA AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TERMINALS WHERE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OR
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...AND INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. GIVEN RAINFALL
AT EET AND ANB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MIGHT NEED TO LOWER VIS BUT
WILL WAIT ON TRENDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW.
EXPECT CU FIELD TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  94  75  92  71 /  30  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    74  93  75  93  73 /  30  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  20  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  30  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  30  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 282347
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ONE AGAIN EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS CLIMBED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...WITH BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HIGH TOMORROW...AND WILL
GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY
METRO AREAS. AS WITH TODAY...NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE THUNDERSTORM
TRIGGERS AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES RULE THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE
BROADBRUSH POPS FOR TOMORROW...AND LET THE MORNING SHIFT TOMORROW
TRY TO IDENTIFY THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

AS WE DID EARLIER THIS SUMMER...I THINK WE`LL TAKE THE HEAT
ADVISORY ONE DAY AT A TIME WITH THIS GO `ROUND AS WELL. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES PLACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN A WEAKNESS
IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS SHOULD (SHOULD) KEEP CONDITIONS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. IF ANYTHING...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. SO EVEN IF AFTERNOON AIR TEMPS ARE
NOT ALL THAT LOWER...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP US BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO QUARTER OF THE CWA AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TERMINALS WHERE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OR
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...AND INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. GIVEN RAINFALL
AT EET AND ANB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MIGHT NEED TO LOWER VIS BUT
WILL WAIT ON TRENDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW.
EXPECT CU FIELD TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  94  75  92  71 /  30  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    74  93  75  93  73 /  30  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  20  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  30  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  30  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 282347
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ONE AGAIN EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS CLIMBED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...WITH BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HIGH TOMORROW...AND WILL
GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY
METRO AREAS. AS WITH TODAY...NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE THUNDERSTORM
TRIGGERS AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES RULE THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE
BROADBRUSH POPS FOR TOMORROW...AND LET THE MORNING SHIFT TOMORROW
TRY TO IDENTIFY THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

AS WE DID EARLIER THIS SUMMER...I THINK WE`LL TAKE THE HEAT
ADVISORY ONE DAY AT A TIME WITH THIS GO `ROUND AS WELL. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES PLACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN A WEAKNESS
IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS SHOULD (SHOULD) KEEP CONDITIONS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. IF ANYTHING...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. SO EVEN IF AFTERNOON AIR TEMPS ARE
NOT ALL THAT LOWER...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP US BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO QUARTER OF THE CWA AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TERMINALS WHERE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OR
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...AND INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. GIVEN RAINFALL
AT EET AND ANB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MIGHT NEED TO LOWER VIS BUT
WILL WAIT ON TRENDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW.
EXPECT CU FIELD TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  94  75  92  71 /  30  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    74  93  75  93  73 /  30  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  20  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  30  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  30  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 282347
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ONE AGAIN EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS CLIMBED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...WITH BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HIGH TOMORROW...AND WILL
GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY
METRO AREAS. AS WITH TODAY...NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE THUNDERSTORM
TRIGGERS AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES RULE THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE
BROADBRUSH POPS FOR TOMORROW...AND LET THE MORNING SHIFT TOMORROW
TRY TO IDENTIFY THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

AS WE DID EARLIER THIS SUMMER...I THINK WE`LL TAKE THE HEAT
ADVISORY ONE DAY AT A TIME WITH THIS GO `ROUND AS WELL. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES PLACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN A WEAKNESS
IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS SHOULD (SHOULD) KEEP CONDITIONS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. IF ANYTHING...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. SO EVEN IF AFTERNOON AIR TEMPS ARE
NOT ALL THAT LOWER...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP US BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO QUARTER OF THE CWA AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TERMINALS WHERE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OR
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...AND INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. GIVEN RAINFALL
AT EET AND ANB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MIGHT NEED TO LOWER VIS BUT
WILL WAIT ON TRENDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW.
EXPECT CU FIELD TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  94  75  92  71 /  30  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    74  93  75  93  73 /  30  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  20  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  30  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  30  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 282347
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ONE AGAIN EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS CLIMBED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...WITH BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HIGH TOMORROW...AND WILL
GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY
METRO AREAS. AS WITH TODAY...NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE THUNDERSTORM
TRIGGERS AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES RULE THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE
BROADBRUSH POPS FOR TOMORROW...AND LET THE MORNING SHIFT TOMORROW
TRY TO IDENTIFY THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

AS WE DID EARLIER THIS SUMMER...I THINK WE`LL TAKE THE HEAT
ADVISORY ONE DAY AT A TIME WITH THIS GO `ROUND AS WELL. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES PLACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN A WEAKNESS
IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS SHOULD (SHOULD) KEEP CONDITIONS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. IF ANYTHING...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. SO EVEN IF AFTERNOON AIR TEMPS ARE
NOT ALL THAT LOWER...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP US BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO QUARTER OF THE CWA AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TERMINALS WHERE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OR
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...AND INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. GIVEN RAINFALL
AT EET AND ANB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MIGHT NEED TO LOWER VIS BUT
WILL WAIT ON TRENDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW.
EXPECT CU FIELD TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  94  75  92  71 /  30  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    74  93  75  93  73 /  30  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  20  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  30  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  30  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 282347
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ONE AGAIN EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS CLIMBED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...WITH BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HIGH TOMORROW...AND WILL
GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY
METRO AREAS. AS WITH TODAY...NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE THUNDERSTORM
TRIGGERS AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES RULE THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE
BROADBRUSH POPS FOR TOMORROW...AND LET THE MORNING SHIFT TOMORROW
TRY TO IDENTIFY THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

AS WE DID EARLIER THIS SUMMER...I THINK WE`LL TAKE THE HEAT
ADVISORY ONE DAY AT A TIME WITH THIS GO `ROUND AS WELL. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES PLACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN A WEAKNESS
IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS SHOULD (SHOULD) KEEP CONDITIONS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. IF ANYTHING...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. SO EVEN IF AFTERNOON AIR TEMPS ARE
NOT ALL THAT LOWER...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP US BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO QUARTER OF THE CWA AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TERMINALS WHERE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OR
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...AND INCLUDED MVFR VIS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. GIVEN RAINFALL
AT EET AND ANB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MIGHT NEED TO LOWER VIS BUT
WILL WAIT ON TRENDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW.
EXPECT CU FIELD TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  94  75  92  71 /  30  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    74  93  75  93  73 /  30  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  20  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  30  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  30  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 282031
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... EE
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU... EJ



000
FXUS64 KMOB 282031
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... EE
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU... EJ




000
FXUS64 KBMX 282015
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ONE AGAIN EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS CLIMBED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...WITH BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HIGH TOMORROW...AND WILL
GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY
METRO AREAS. AS WITH TODAY...NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE THUNDERSTORM
TRIGGERS AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES RULE THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE
BROADBRUSH POPS FOR TOMORROW...AND LET THE MORNING SHIFT TOMORROW
TRY TO IDENTIFY THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

AS WE DID EARLIER THIS SUMMER...I THINK WE`LL TAKE THE HEAT
ADVISORY ONE DAY AT A TIME WITH THIS GO `ROUND AS WELL. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES PLACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN A WEAKNESS
IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS SHOULD (SHOULD) KEEP CONDITIONS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. IF ANYTHING...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. SO EVEN IF AFTERNOON AIR TEMPS ARE
NOT ALL THAT LOWER...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP US BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO QUARTER OF THE CWA AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO AMEND
THRU THE DAY FOR ANY TS IMPACTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  94  75  92  71 /  30  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    74  93  75  93  73 /  30  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  20  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  30  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  30  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 282015
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ONE AGAIN EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS CLIMBED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...WITH BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HIGH TOMORROW...AND WILL
GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY
METRO AREAS. AS WITH TODAY...NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE THUNDERSTORM
TRIGGERS AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES RULE THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE
BROADBRUSH POPS FOR TOMORROW...AND LET THE MORNING SHIFT TOMORROW
TRY TO IDENTIFY THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

AS WE DID EARLIER THIS SUMMER...I THINK WE`LL TAKE THE HEAT
ADVISORY ONE DAY AT A TIME WITH THIS GO `ROUND AS WELL. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES PLACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN A WEAKNESS
IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS SHOULD (SHOULD) KEEP CONDITIONS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. IF ANYTHING...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. SO EVEN IF AFTERNOON AIR TEMPS ARE
NOT ALL THAT LOWER...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP US BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO QUARTER OF THE CWA AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO AMEND
THRU THE DAY FOR ANY TS IMPACTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  94  75  92  71 /  30  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    74  93  75  93  73 /  30  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  20  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  30  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  30  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 282015
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ONE AGAIN EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS CLIMBED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...WITH BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HIGH TOMORROW...AND WILL
GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY
METRO AREAS. AS WITH TODAY...NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE THUNDERSTORM
TRIGGERS AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES RULE THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE
BROADBRUSH POPS FOR TOMORROW...AND LET THE MORNING SHIFT TOMORROW
TRY TO IDENTIFY THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

AS WE DID EARLIER THIS SUMMER...I THINK WE`LL TAKE THE HEAT
ADVISORY ONE DAY AT A TIME WITH THIS GO `ROUND AS WELL. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES PLACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN A WEAKNESS
IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS SHOULD (SHOULD) KEEP CONDITIONS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. IF ANYTHING...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. SO EVEN IF AFTERNOON AIR TEMPS ARE
NOT ALL THAT LOWER...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP US BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO QUARTER OF THE CWA AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO AMEND
THRU THE DAY FOR ANY TS IMPACTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  94  75  92  71 /  30  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    74  93  75  93  73 /  30  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  20  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  30  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  30  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 282015
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ONE AGAIN EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS CLIMBED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...WITH BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HIGH TOMORROW...AND WILL
GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY
METRO AREAS. AS WITH TODAY...NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE THUNDERSTORM
TRIGGERS AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES RULE THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE
BROADBRUSH POPS FOR TOMORROW...AND LET THE MORNING SHIFT TOMORROW
TRY TO IDENTIFY THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

AS WE DID EARLIER THIS SUMMER...I THINK WE`LL TAKE THE HEAT
ADVISORY ONE DAY AT A TIME WITH THIS GO `ROUND AS WELL. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES PLACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN A WEAKNESS
IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS SHOULD (SHOULD) KEEP CONDITIONS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. IF ANYTHING...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. SO EVEN IF AFTERNOON AIR TEMPS ARE
NOT ALL THAT LOWER...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP US BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO QUARTER OF THE CWA AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO AMEND
THRU THE DAY FOR ANY TS IMPACTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  94  75  92  71 /  30  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    74  93  75  93  73 /  30  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  20  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  30  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  30  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281954
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
254 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WERE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUICKLY DEVELOPING/DISSIPATING
AS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING
THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEST TENNESSEE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NAM MODEL IS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH AROUND 30 POPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY.

BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY-12Z THURSDAY...A TRAILING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE FROM ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY...INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MODELS SHIFT
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY-00Z
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO BRING IN LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS SOLUTION. HAVE HELD
BACK A TAD FROM INCREASING TEMPS ON SATURDAY UP TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO
SET UP. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO FORECAST GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR AND MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL ONLY
CARRY VCTS IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MVFR MIST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  96  76  95 /  20  30  30  40
SHOALS        76  97  76  95 /  20  30  30  40
VINEMONT      75  94  74  92 /  20  30  20  40
FAYETTEVILLE  74  92  74  91 /  20  30  30  40
ALBERTVILLE   74  91  74  92 /  20  30  20  40
FORT PAYNE    74  92  72  91 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281954
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
254 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WERE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUICKLY DEVELOPING/DISSIPATING
AS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING
THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEST TENNESSEE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NAM MODEL IS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH AROUND 30 POPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY.

BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY-12Z THURSDAY...A TRAILING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE FROM ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY...INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MODELS SHIFT
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY-00Z
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO BRING IN LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS SOLUTION. HAVE HELD
BACK A TAD FROM INCREASING TEMPS ON SATURDAY UP TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO
SET UP. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO FORECAST GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR AND MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL ONLY
CARRY VCTS IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MVFR MIST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  96  76  95 /  20  30  30  40
SHOALS        76  97  76  95 /  20  30  30  40
VINEMONT      75  94  74  92 /  20  30  20  40
FAYETTEVILLE  74  92  74  91 /  20  30  30  40
ALBERTVILLE   74  91  74  92 /  20  30  20  40
FORT PAYNE    74  92  72  91 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281954
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
254 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WERE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUICKLY DEVELOPING/DISSIPATING
AS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING
THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEST TENNESSEE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NAM MODEL IS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH AROUND 30 POPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY.

BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY-12Z THURSDAY...A TRAILING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE FROM ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY...INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MODELS SHIFT
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY-00Z
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO BRING IN LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS SOLUTION. HAVE HELD
BACK A TAD FROM INCREASING TEMPS ON SATURDAY UP TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO
SET UP. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO FORECAST GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR AND MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL ONLY
CARRY VCTS IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MVFR MIST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  96  76  95 /  20  30  30  40
SHOALS        76  97  76  95 /  20  30  30  40
VINEMONT      75  94  74  92 /  20  30  20  40
FAYETTEVILLE  74  92  74  91 /  20  30  30  40
ALBERTVILLE   74  91  74  92 /  20  30  20  40
FORT PAYNE    74  92  72  91 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281738 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1035 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA NW
INTO KENTUCKY INTO ILLINOIS. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
EVIDENT TODAY IN NE AL/NW GA. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES EXTENDING SW FROM DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
SCATTERED COVERAGE (30 PERCENT) TO OCCUR WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MAINLY IN NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE FROM DISTURBANCES FURTHER
NORTH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TN.

HOWEVER...NEAR I-65 AND POINTS WEST...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND WILL LIKELY SEE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT BEST.
BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN THROUGH ~ 550 MB...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL MIX OUT TODAY.
THEREFORE RAISED DEWPOINTS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE GRIDS AND
KEPT THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MUSCLE
SHOALS TOPPED OUT AT 100 DEGREES...BUT DECIDED TO GO 99 AS A HIGH.
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-
65...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR AND MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL ONLY
CARRY VCTS IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MVFR MIST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281738 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1035 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA NW
INTO KENTUCKY INTO ILLINOIS. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
EVIDENT TODAY IN NE AL/NW GA. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES EXTENDING SW FROM DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
SCATTERED COVERAGE (30 PERCENT) TO OCCUR WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MAINLY IN NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE FROM DISTURBANCES FURTHER
NORTH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TN.

HOWEVER...NEAR I-65 AND POINTS WEST...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND WILL LIKELY SEE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT BEST.
BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN THROUGH ~ 550 MB...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL MIX OUT TODAY.
THEREFORE RAISED DEWPOINTS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE GRIDS AND
KEPT THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MUSCLE
SHOALS TOPPED OUT AT 100 DEGREES...BUT DECIDED TO GO 99 AS A HIGH.
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-
65...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR AND MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL ONLY
CARRY VCTS IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MVFR MIST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281738 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1035 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA NW
INTO KENTUCKY INTO ILLINOIS. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
EVIDENT TODAY IN NE AL/NW GA. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES EXTENDING SW FROM DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
SCATTERED COVERAGE (30 PERCENT) TO OCCUR WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MAINLY IN NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE FROM DISTURBANCES FURTHER
NORTH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TN.

HOWEVER...NEAR I-65 AND POINTS WEST...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND WILL LIKELY SEE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT BEST.
BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN THROUGH ~ 550 MB...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL MIX OUT TODAY.
THEREFORE RAISED DEWPOINTS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE GRIDS AND
KEPT THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MUSCLE
SHOALS TOPPED OUT AT 100 DEGREES...BUT DECIDED TO GO 99 AS A HIGH.
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-
65...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR AND MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL ONLY
CARRY VCTS IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MVFR MIST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281738 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1035 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA NW
INTO KENTUCKY INTO ILLINOIS. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
EVIDENT TODAY IN NE AL/NW GA. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES EXTENDING SW FROM DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
SCATTERED COVERAGE (30 PERCENT) TO OCCUR WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MAINLY IN NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE FROM DISTURBANCES FURTHER
NORTH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TN.

HOWEVER...NEAR I-65 AND POINTS WEST...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND WILL LIKELY SEE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT BEST.
BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN THROUGH ~ 550 MB...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL MIX OUT TODAY.
THEREFORE RAISED DEWPOINTS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE GRIDS AND
KEPT THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MUSCLE
SHOALS TOPPED OUT AT 100 DEGREES...BUT DECIDED TO GO 99 AS A HIGH.
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-
65...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR AND MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL ONLY
CARRY VCTS IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MVFR MIST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281738 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1035 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA NW
INTO KENTUCKY INTO ILLINOIS. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
EVIDENT TODAY IN NE AL/NW GA. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES EXTENDING SW FROM DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
SCATTERED COVERAGE (30 PERCENT) TO OCCUR WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MAINLY IN NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE FROM DISTURBANCES FURTHER
NORTH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TN.

HOWEVER...NEAR I-65 AND POINTS WEST...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND WILL LIKELY SEE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT BEST.
BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN THROUGH ~ 550 MB...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL MIX OUT TODAY.
THEREFORE RAISED DEWPOINTS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE GRIDS AND
KEPT THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MUSCLE
SHOALS TOPPED OUT AT 100 DEGREES...BUT DECIDED TO GO 99 AS A HIGH.
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-
65...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR AND MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL ONLY
CARRY VCTS IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MVFR MIST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281734 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
27.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.18Z. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...MOSTLY VARIABLE BETWEEN 20 TO 30
KNOTS...MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH CREATED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX/FL REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
STATIONARY...ALSO. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST IS HANDLING THE POOLS OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FA. THE POOLS TO THE EAST...FEEL WILL HEAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...
MAYBE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POPS TO EASTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE FA TODAY. THE POOLS TO THE NORTH OF THE FA...FEEL THEY WILL
MOVE OVER THE FA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE IN-LINE WITH THE
NAM SOLUTION...SO WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS...HAVE BUMPED TODAY`S POPS TOWARDS THE WETTER NAM AS
A RESULT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...HEAT INDICES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 103 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...ANY ACTIVITY FIRING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. WITH A MORE MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE FA...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A BIT FROM THE
LOWS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THIS MEANS OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S. /16

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE...HIGH LEVEL TROF IS POSITIONED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST GULF. AN ASSESSMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INDICATES A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.9-2.1 INCHES). EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE TROF TO
THE EAST...THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/NORTHERN GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS CARRIED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THIS...COULD VERY WELL SEE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. TO REFLECT THIS...WILL
CARRY A CHANCE OF STORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NIGHT. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS USE UP
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. AWAY FROM STORMS...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 93 TO 97. GRIDDED HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY
RANGE FROM 105 TO 107...BUT SHOW THE RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLY LIFTING
UP TO AROUND 108. SINCE THIS IS IN PERIOD 3...NO HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY ON THIS PACKAGE...BUT MAY CHANGE ON LATER
FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SINK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH ITS WESTWARD EXTENSION BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN STALL AND ONLY MEANDER SLIGHTLY NORTH/SOUTH AS
WEAK WAVES OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING UNSEASONABLY HIGH
(2-2.25") ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF...THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. RAINS COULD BECOME
LOCALLY HEAVY IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORM THREATS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH THE FRONT NEAR
BY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...DAYTIME HIGHS TREND
LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BISECTS THE
LOCAL AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND MODIFIED HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER THESE AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...FORECAST IN THE
MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO EVENING. /16

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEX/FL WILL MEANDER EASTWARD A BIT...ALLOWING THE LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AT TIMES WED THROUGH THU....WITH
MODERATE FLOW DURING THESE TIMES...MAINLY OVER OPEN WATERS. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  75  96  75  94 /  30  20  40  30  30
PENSACOLA   96  79  95  78  92 /  30  20  40  30  30
DESTIN      94  81  93  80  89 /  10  10  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   98  73  97  74  95 /  30  20  40  30  30
WAYNESBORO  97  74  97  75  96 /  30  20  40  30  30
CAMDEN      98  74  97  75  95 /  30  20  40  30  30
CRESTVIEW   99  75  97  76  94 /  30  20  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 281734 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
27.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.18Z. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...MOSTLY VARIABLE BETWEEN 20 TO 30
KNOTS...MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH CREATED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX/FL REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
STATIONARY...ALSO. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST IS HANDLING THE POOLS OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FA. THE POOLS TO THE EAST...FEEL WILL HEAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...
MAYBE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POPS TO EASTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE FA TODAY. THE POOLS TO THE NORTH OF THE FA...FEEL THEY WILL
MOVE OVER THE FA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE IN-LINE WITH THE
NAM SOLUTION...SO WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS...HAVE BUMPED TODAY`S POPS TOWARDS THE WETTER NAM AS
A RESULT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...HEAT INDICES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 103 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...ANY ACTIVITY FIRING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. WITH A MORE MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE FA...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A BIT FROM THE
LOWS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THIS MEANS OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S. /16

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE...HIGH LEVEL TROF IS POSITIONED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST GULF. AN ASSESSMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INDICATES A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.9-2.1 INCHES). EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE TROF TO
THE EAST...THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/NORTHERN GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS CARRIED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THIS...COULD VERY WELL SEE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. TO REFLECT THIS...WILL
CARRY A CHANCE OF STORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NIGHT. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS USE UP
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. AWAY FROM STORMS...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 93 TO 97. GRIDDED HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY
RANGE FROM 105 TO 107...BUT SHOW THE RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLY LIFTING
UP TO AROUND 108. SINCE THIS IS IN PERIOD 3...NO HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY ON THIS PACKAGE...BUT MAY CHANGE ON LATER
FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SINK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH ITS WESTWARD EXTENSION BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN STALL AND ONLY MEANDER SLIGHTLY NORTH/SOUTH AS
WEAK WAVES OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING UNSEASONABLY HIGH
(2-2.25") ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF...THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. RAINS COULD BECOME
LOCALLY HEAVY IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORM THREATS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH THE FRONT NEAR
BY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...DAYTIME HIGHS TREND
LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BISECTS THE
LOCAL AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND MODIFIED HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER THESE AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...FORECAST IN THE
MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO EVENING. /16

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEX/FL WILL MEANDER EASTWARD A BIT...ALLOWING THE LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AT TIMES WED THROUGH THU....WITH
MODERATE FLOW DURING THESE TIMES...MAINLY OVER OPEN WATERS. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  75  96  75  94 /  30  20  40  30  30
PENSACOLA   96  79  95  78  92 /  30  20  40  30  30
DESTIN      94  81  93  80  89 /  10  10  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   98  73  97  74  95 /  30  20  40  30  30
WAYNESBORO  97  74  97  75  96 /  30  20  40  30  30
CAMDEN      98  74  97  75  95 /  30  20  40  30  30
CRESTVIEW   99  75  97  76  94 /  30  20  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281734 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
27.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.18Z. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...MOSTLY VARIABLE BETWEEN 20 TO 30
KNOTS...MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH CREATED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX/FL REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
STATIONARY...ALSO. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST IS HANDLING THE POOLS OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FA. THE POOLS TO THE EAST...FEEL WILL HEAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...
MAYBE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POPS TO EASTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE FA TODAY. THE POOLS TO THE NORTH OF THE FA...FEEL THEY WILL
MOVE OVER THE FA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE IN-LINE WITH THE
NAM SOLUTION...SO WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS...HAVE BUMPED TODAY`S POPS TOWARDS THE WETTER NAM AS
A RESULT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...HEAT INDICES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 103 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...ANY ACTIVITY FIRING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. WITH A MORE MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE FA...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A BIT FROM THE
LOWS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THIS MEANS OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S. /16

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE...HIGH LEVEL TROF IS POSITIONED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST GULF. AN ASSESSMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INDICATES A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.9-2.1 INCHES). EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE TROF TO
THE EAST...THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/NORTHERN GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS CARRIED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THIS...COULD VERY WELL SEE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. TO REFLECT THIS...WILL
CARRY A CHANCE OF STORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NIGHT. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS USE UP
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. AWAY FROM STORMS...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 93 TO 97. GRIDDED HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY
RANGE FROM 105 TO 107...BUT SHOW THE RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLY LIFTING
UP TO AROUND 108. SINCE THIS IS IN PERIOD 3...NO HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY ON THIS PACKAGE...BUT MAY CHANGE ON LATER
FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SINK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH ITS WESTWARD EXTENSION BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN STALL AND ONLY MEANDER SLIGHTLY NORTH/SOUTH AS
WEAK WAVES OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING UNSEASONABLY HIGH
(2-2.25") ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF...THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. RAINS COULD BECOME
LOCALLY HEAVY IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORM THREATS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH THE FRONT NEAR
BY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...DAYTIME HIGHS TREND
LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BISECTS THE
LOCAL AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND MODIFIED HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER THESE AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...FORECAST IN THE
MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO EVENING. /16

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEX/FL WILL MEANDER EASTWARD A BIT...ALLOWING THE LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AT TIMES WED THROUGH THU....WITH
MODERATE FLOW DURING THESE TIMES...MAINLY OVER OPEN WATERS. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  75  96  75  94 /  30  20  40  30  30
PENSACOLA   96  79  95  78  92 /  30  20  40  30  30
DESTIN      94  81  93  80  89 /  10  10  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   98  73  97  74  95 /  30  20  40  30  30
WAYNESBORO  97  74  97  75  96 /  30  20  40  30  30
CAMDEN      98  74  97  75  95 /  30  20  40  30  30
CRESTVIEW   99  75  97  76  94 /  30  20  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281729
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RAISED HIGH TEMP FORECAST A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE
BOARD...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TEMP TRENDS. RECONFIGURED POPS
SLIGHTLY TO PUT HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN I-20 AND I-59
CORRIDORS...WHERE ENHANCED CU AND EARLIEST SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO
FORM.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO AMEND
THRU THE DAY FOR ANY TS IMPACTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE AREA NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  93  75  92  71 /  20  30  20  50  20
ANNISTON    73  93  74  93  73 /  20  40  20  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  94  76  93  73 /  20  50  30  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  96  76  95  74 /  20  50  30  50  20
CALERA      74  93  75  93  73 /  20  50  30  50  30
AUBURN      73  92  74  92  74 /  20  50  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  75  96  76  96  75 /  20  50  30  50  40
TROY        73  96  74  94  74 /  20  50  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281729
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RAISED HIGH TEMP FORECAST A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE
BOARD...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TEMP TRENDS. RECONFIGURED POPS
SLIGHTLY TO PUT HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN I-20 AND I-59
CORRIDORS...WHERE ENHANCED CU AND EARLIEST SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO
FORM.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO AMEND
THRU THE DAY FOR ANY TS IMPACTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE AREA NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  93  75  92  71 /  20  30  20  50  20
ANNISTON    73  93  74  93  73 /  20  40  20  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  94  76  93  73 /  20  50  30  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  96  76  95  74 /  20  50  30  50  20
CALERA      74  93  75  93  73 /  20  50  30  50  30
AUBURN      73  92  74  92  74 /  20  50  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  75  96  76  96  75 /  20  50  30  50  40
TROY        73  96  74  94  74 /  20  50  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281729
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RAISED HIGH TEMP FORECAST A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE
BOARD...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TEMP TRENDS. RECONFIGURED POPS
SLIGHTLY TO PUT HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN I-20 AND I-59
CORRIDORS...WHERE ENHANCED CU AND EARLIEST SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO
FORM.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO AMEND
THRU THE DAY FOR ANY TS IMPACTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE AREA NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  93  75  92  71 /  20  30  20  50  20
ANNISTON    73  93  74  93  73 /  20  40  20  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  94  76  93  73 /  20  50  30  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  96  76  95  74 /  20  50  30  50  20
CALERA      74  93  75  93  73 /  20  50  30  50  30
AUBURN      73  92  74  92  74 /  20  50  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  75  96  76  96  75 /  20  50  30  50  40
TROY        73  96  74  94  74 /  20  50  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281729
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RAISED HIGH TEMP FORECAST A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE
BOARD...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TEMP TRENDS. RECONFIGURED POPS
SLIGHTLY TO PUT HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN I-20 AND I-59
CORRIDORS...WHERE ENHANCED CU AND EARLIEST SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO
FORM.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO AMEND
THRU THE DAY FOR ANY TS IMPACTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE AREA NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  93  75  92  71 /  20  30  20  50  20
ANNISTON    73  93  74  93  73 /  20  40  20  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  94  76  93  73 /  20  50  30  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  96  76  95  74 /  20  50  30  50  20
CALERA      74  93  75  93  73 /  20  50  30  50  30
AUBURN      73  92  74  92  74 /  20  50  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  75  96  76  96  75 /  20  50  30  50  40
TROY        73  96  74  94  74 /  20  50  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281729
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RAISED HIGH TEMP FORECAST A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE
BOARD...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TEMP TRENDS. RECONFIGURED POPS
SLIGHTLY TO PUT HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN I-20 AND I-59
CORRIDORS...WHERE ENHANCED CU AND EARLIEST SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO
FORM.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO AMEND
THRU THE DAY FOR ANY TS IMPACTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE AREA NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  93  75  92  71 /  20  30  20  50  20
ANNISTON    73  93  74  93  73 /  20  40  20  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  94  76  93  73 /  20  50  30  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  96  76  95  74 /  20  50  30  50  20
CALERA      74  93  75  93  73 /  20  50  30  50  30
AUBURN      73  92  74  92  74 /  20  50  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  75  96  76  96  75 /  20  50  30  50  40
TROY        73  96  74  94  74 /  20  50  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281729
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RAISED HIGH TEMP FORECAST A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE
BOARD...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TEMP TRENDS. RECONFIGURED POPS
SLIGHTLY TO PUT HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN I-20 AND I-59
CORRIDORS...WHERE ENHANCED CU AND EARLIEST SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO
FORM.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO AMEND
THRU THE DAY FOR ANY TS IMPACTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE AREA NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  93  75  92  71 /  20  30  20  50  20
ANNISTON    73  93  74  93  73 /  20  40  20  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  94  76  93  73 /  20  50  30  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  96  76  95  74 /  20  50  30  50  20
CALERA      74  93  75  93  73 /  20  50  30  50  30
AUBURN      73  92  74  92  74 /  20  50  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  75  96  76  96  75 /  20  50  30  50  40
TROY        73  96  74  94  74 /  20  50  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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