[top]
000
FXUS64 KMOB 202024
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
324 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...AS A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...IT PUSHES
A PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST OF THE FA OFF.
THIS PIECE OF ENERGY PUSHED A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...BUT NOTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIP HAS RESULTED
FOR THE FA. WHAT HAS DEVELOPED BY THE TIME OF THIS WRITING IS WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE FA. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SYSTEMS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FA FOR THE
EVENING.
FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FORECAST. FOR
SKIES...HAVE WENT WITH STRATUS MOVING INLAND OVER THE WESTERN
QUARTER OF THE FA...CLOSER TO THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW. THE
REST OF THE FA...AM EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
WITH GUIDANCE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BEING ALONG
THE MISS/AL STATE LINE. HAVE USED THAT AS A GENERAL
BOUNDARY...THOUGH HAVE NOT KEPT ALL THE STRATUS WEST OF THE STATE
LINE. AM NOT QUITE BUYING THE GFS/MAV TEMPS...WITH FOG/DEW
DEVELOPMENT LIMITING OVERNIGHT COOLING ABOVE WHAT THE MAV WAS
ADVERTISING. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER NAM/MET OVERNIGHT TEMPS
FOR THE FORECAST.
FOR TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...BUT AM STILL
EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL. /16
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE BASE OF A PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF. THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
EASTWARD AND MOVES MOSTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTION OF
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE
COAST MEANWHILE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING EFFECTS OF RIDGING PREVIOUSLY OVER
THE AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY...MORE SO WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. SURFACE BASED CAPES
INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG WEST OF I-65 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
1000-1500 EAST OF I-65. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY TO
CHANCE GENERALLY WEST OF I-65 WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST OF I-65
WHERE COMPARATIVELY LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE FOR BOTH LINGERING
CONVECTION AND AS ANOTHER...ALBEIT WEAKER...SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE LONGWAVE TROF CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE A LONGWAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SENDS A WEAK TRAILING FRONT DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHICH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MOISTURE IN THE 800-900
MB LAYER ALTHOUGH WITH SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE
700-800 MB LAYER. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2000
J/KG AND WITH BOTH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA...CHANCE POPS ARE
SUPPORTED. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING MID LEVEL DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...MAY SEE A FEW STRONG PULSE
STORMS DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES EXCEPT
FOR SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. /29
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF MOVES OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A FEW TO UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO BE CONFINED
TO NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAKING PROGRESSIVELY MORE
HEADWAY INLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
GENERALLY PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
LOW AS 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NEAR THE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST OTHERWISE THROUGH
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES...WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY...WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY. /29
&&
.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VCR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THE EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IFR LEVEL CIGS TO MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE FA.
AREAS EAST OF THE STRATUS INFLUX ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VISBYS DROP TO
IFR OR LOWER LEVELS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHERE THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IS FLEXIBLE ATTM...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY
ALONG THE MISS/AL STATE LINE. /16
&&
.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
EAST OVER THE PLAINS/MISS RIVER VALLEY MID TO LATE WEEK. UNTIL
THEN...LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE AREA
COASTAL WATERS.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...WITH PART SHIFTING WEST
TO OVER THE NW-ERN GULF OF MEX...OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CREATING THE TROUGH MOVES TO OVER...THEN EAST OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A WEAK TO MODERATE TRAILING FRONT MOVES OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY BY SUNDAY. /16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 67 87 67 86 67 / 00 05 05 30 20
PENSACOLA 69 87 70 85 69 / 00 05 05 20 20
DESTIN 70 84 72 83 71 / 00 10 05 20 20
EVERGREEN 66 91 65 90 65 / 00 10 05 30 30
WAYNESBORO 66 90 66 86 65 / 00 10 10 40 30
CAMDEN 66 90 65 88 65 / 00 10 10 30 30
CRESTVIEW 66 92 65 91 65 / 00 10 10 20 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KBMX 201954
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
254 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FROM THE OVERNIGHT
ISSUANCE AS MODELS ARE FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS OF 2 PM AND WILL CONTINUE
IN THIS AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-85/US 80 THROUGH
9 PM. OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING AS AFTERNOON MIXING IS MINIMAL AND LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AT OR BELOW AFTERNOON MIXED DEWPOINTS. ANOTHER
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE A DECK OF STRATUS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SLIDE NORTHWARD IN
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH PATCHY FOG AND
INCREASED CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 4 AM.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...BUT DID CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE THERE. ISSUE WILL BE THAT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GOOD NEWS IN REGARD TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS IT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT BAD NEWS IN REGARDS TO
INCREASED COMPLEXITY WITH THE FORECAST. TRIED TO STICK WITH A MORE
CONCEPTUAL ASPECT WITH THE FORECAST AND TRIED TO PICK THE OPPORTUNE
TIME FRAME FOR THE AREAS WITH THE FRONT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
THROUGH AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS THEN
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD BE VFR VERY SHORTLY. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL EXIST BEFORE SUNRISE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO LOWER AS SOME DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN BUT STILL HOLDING
IN THE UPPER 60S. INTRODUCED SOME MVFR/IFR VIS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 64 89 66 82 66 / 10 10 10 60 40
ANNISTON 66 88 67 84 65 / 10 10 10 60 50
BIRMINGHAM 68 90 68 83 66 / 10 10 10 60 40
TUSCALOOSA 65 91 67 83 65 / 10 10 20 60 30
CALERA 67 90 66 84 66 / 10 10 10 60 40
AUBURN 66 89 67 85 65 / 10 10 10 40 40
MONTGOMERY 66 92 67 88 67 / 10 10 10 40 50
TROY 64 91 67 89 67 / 30 10 10 30 40
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KHUN 201925
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WAS RATHER SLOW TO CLR/EXIT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG FETCH OF SLY INFLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINING
ACROSS THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN...ANY SUBSEQUENT CLEARING HEADING
INTO THE EVENING PERIOD MAY BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A SLY/SWLY GULF
INFLOW PREVAILING INTO TUE. WEAK UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION WILL ALSO RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND HUMID WX CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TUE...AS DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE W/SW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
TUE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
DEPTH EVOLVING ON TUE...IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING SFC WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE NRN/MID PLAINS. IN ANY CASE...THE BULK OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD AND DIVERGE TUE NIGHT...WITH THE SRN
STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS STILL INDICATE ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING FRONT...AND THEN GRADUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT/INTO WED. THE FRONT ITSELF
SHOULD THEN MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH PRECIP
THEN TAPERING OFF THU AS THE FRONT WEAKENS/EXITS TO THE E.
SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATEST MODEL SUITES REMAIN WITH THE
COVERAGE/EXTENT OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. GENERAL CONSENSUS THOUGH
WOULD KEEP POPS IN THE SCT CAT...MAINLY WED AND WED NIGHT. WHILE THE
DYNAMICS/FORCING ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT LOOK TO WEAKEN/SHEAR TO
THE NE...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE
TO WARRANT THE PROB FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY OF THE TSTMS INTO WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE REINFORCING SURGE
OF MOD POLAR AIR DIVING SWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS FRI.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD INTO THE REGION AROUND THE START
OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOKS TO RESULT IN QUIET AND MORE SEASONAL
LIKE CONDITIONS/TEMPS GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. STRONG UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL AID IN THE RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE NWLY FLOW PATTERN
POTENTIALLY FORMS ACROSS THE REGION MON.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THE AFTN AS LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE TERMINALS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21/00Z TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTN OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
21/00Z TONIGHT, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW.
12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 68 90 69 85 / 10 10 20 50
SHOALS 68 90 68 84 / 10 10 30 50
VINEMONT 66 88 66 82 / 10 10 20 50
FAYETTEVILLE 65 87 66 83 / 10 10 20 50
ALBERTVILLE 65 86 66 83 / 10 10 20 50
FORT PAYNE 64 88 63 84 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 201740
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO AROUND 80 AT 11 AM. CLOUD COVER HAS
SLOWED THE WARM UP FOR MANY AREAS AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE HOURLIES. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE
AN ISOLATED 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
NOTHING ON RADAR THUS FAR BUT SOME HIGHER CLOUD TOPS IN GEORGIA
ARE PART OF AN OLD BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP INITIATE SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. UPDATES
ARE OUT.
88
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD BE VFR VERY SHORTLY. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL EXIST BEFORE SUNRISE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO LOWER AS SOME DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN BUT STILL HOLDING
IN THE UPPER 60S. INTRODUCED SOME MVFR/IFR VIS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
88
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 201735 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)...VCR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THE EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IFR LEVEL CIGS TO MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE FA.
AREAS EAST OF THE STRATUS INFLUX ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VISBYS DROP TO
IFR OR LOWER LEVELS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHERE THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IS FLEXIBLE ATTM...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY
ALONG THE MISS/AL STATE LINE.
/16
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...IN A PERSISTENT WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SATELLITE DATA SHOWS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. A MID
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...EXPECT MORE OF A SUNNY DAY WHICH ALLOWS FOR GOOD
INSOLATION AND WARMING. CONSIDERING MORE SUN...THE BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD
OCCURRING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT PROFILES
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS...THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIFTING INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S TO LOWER 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR. SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COOLER GULF WATERS KEEP
BEACH TEMPERATURES MODIFIED INTO THE LOWER 80S THERE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION. GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS WE SEE IN LOW TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY AND
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...WILL TREND HIGHER
THAN THE MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. /10
A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS
LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE WITH ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER TO RESULT IN DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT SOME. THIS WILL
LIMIT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SUBSIDENCE
OF THE RIDGE...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATEX EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE
CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-65...ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FAR HOW
EAST THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF DEWPOINTS
ONCE AGAIN MIXING OUT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE RESIDUAL
RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE
FOR NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. BY THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND COMBINED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH MLCAPES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 2000 J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS
ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE INLAND CWA DURING THE DAY
AND PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE QUICKLY GETS
SCOURED OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...SO WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE COASTAL ZONES...BUT IT VERY WELL COULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
ALL AREAS. A DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS BUT
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. 34/JFB
&&
.MARINE...WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH...TO
ACROSS THE GULF...MAINTAINS LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...POSSIBLY A LITTLE STRONGER NEAR THE COAST...OVER BAYS AND
SOUNDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAILY AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING
COASTAL SEA BREEZE. RAINFREE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH
A BIT MORE OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR SHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK...THE EXTENDED RANGE
WEATHER MODELS BRING A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. SEAS TO CHANGE LITTLE THIS
WEEK...RANGING 1 TO 2 FEET. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 87 68 87 67 86 / 05 05 05 05 30
PENSACOLA 87 70 87 70 85 / 05 05 05 05 20
DESTIN 82 71 83 72 81 / 05 05 10 05 20
EVERGREEN 91 65 92 66 90 / 05 05 10 10 30
WAYNESBORO 90 65 90 66 86 / 05 05 10 10 40
CAMDEN 91 65 91 66 88 / 05 05 10 05 30
CRESTVIEW 91 64 92 66 90 / 05 05 10 05 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 201729 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1229 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1005 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE SLOW TO RISE THIS
MORNING THANKS TO THE LOW CLOUD DECK ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS A RESULT, HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING 4-6 DEGREES BELOW WHAT
WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IN ADDITION, MORNING FOG IS FINALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (AND HAS BEEN FORMALLY REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST).
ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR BY MIDDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RESPOND TO
THE INSOLATION, TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, A
DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. OTHER THAN CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS
AND TWEAKS TO MORNING SKY GRIDS, THE REST OF THE FORECAST HANDLES
BOTH ONGOING/EXPECTED TRENDS FOR TODAY.
WILL RESEND THE ZONES SHORTLY.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THE AFTN AS LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE TERMINALS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 21/00Z TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTN OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21/00Z TONIGHT,
LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW.
12
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 201558
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1058 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO AROUND 80 AT 11 AM. CLOUD COVER HAS
SLOWED THE WARM UP FOR MANY AREAS AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE HOURLIES. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE
AN ISOLATED 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
NOTHING ON RADAR THUS FAR BUT SOME HIGHER CLOUD TOPS IN GEORGIA
ARE PART OF AN OLD BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP INITIATE SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. UPDATES
ARE OUT.
88
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH MOSTLY IFR TO MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS PREVAILING FROM THE
SOUTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ANTICIPATED. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE INTO THE PLANNING PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
56/GDG
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 201505 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1005 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE SLOW TO RISE THIS
MORNING THANKS TO THE LOW CLOUD DECK ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS A RESULT, HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING 4-6 DEGREES BELOW WHAT
WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IN ADDITION, MORNING FOG IS FINALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (AND HAS BEEN FORMALLY REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST).
ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR BY MIDDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RESPOND TO
THE INSOLATION, TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, A
DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. OTHER THAN CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS
AND TWEAKS TO MORNING SKY GRIDS, THE REST OF THE FORECAST HANDLES
BOTH ONGOING/EXPECTED TRENDS FOR TODAY.
WILL RESEND THE ZONES SHORTLY.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
LOW CLOUDS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/ADVECTING ACROSS NRN AL WITH CIGS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 008-015 AGL. BELIEVE MVFR CIGS /1000-2000FT/ WILL
PREVAIL...BUT COULD SEE PERIODIC DIPS TO IFR CAT (NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT EITHER TERMINAL). SHORT RANGE /RAP/ MODELS SHOWING
MOISTURE AND LOW CIGS COULD HANG AROUND THROUGH 15-17Z. BY 17Z...SRLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP AND HEATING WILL DISSIPATE MAJORITY OF SHALLOW LOW
CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/TUES...THOUGH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHALLOW FOG COULD REDEVELOP BRIEFLY ONCE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
DJN.83
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPED
TO PRODUCE AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A
REPEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY A BIT FURTHER EAST...AS THIS LOW SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST
WAS HELPING TO BRING WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE DEEP
SOUTH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THIS RIDGE...NOTED FROM GEORGIA TO
VIRGINIA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...
MAINLY JUST TO OUR EAST. YESTERDAY...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
SYSTEM LIKELY PRODUCED OVER 5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TN...NW
GA...AND FAR NE AL. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THAT RAIN HAS RESULTED IN
AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE AFFECTING PARTS OF NE ALABAMA.
LIGHTER FOG/MIST WAS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SO FAR HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE REGION SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER TO
THE EAST TODAY...HELPING TO END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...MORE WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUE...WITH HIGHS
NEARING 90 ACROSS PARTS OF NW ALABAMA. A SOUTHERLY 5-15 MPH FLOW WILL
CONTINUE A FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TODAY...AND MID 60S ON TUE...
WITH CORRESPONDING HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BRING MORE STRONG STORMS TO THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY AND ON TUE. AS A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM NEARS...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THIS REGION TUE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO THUR...AS THE FRONT GETS EVER
CLOSER. GIVEN THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN CHARACTER...WILL
HOLD OFF ON LIKELY POPS THIS GO AROUND FOR WED. SOME OF THE STORMS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE STRONGER SHEAR
AND OTHER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
THE FRONT EAST OF THE VALLEY THU/FRI WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEEKEND ARRIVES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER HI/LO
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH VALUES CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
RSB
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 201138
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BROAD
UPPER TROF ROTATE THRU THE REGION BRINGING A COUPLE OF WEAK
BOUNDARIES INTO/THRU THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A STRATUS DECK THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL AL. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE FAR NE AS DEW POINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. ELSEWHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
60S.
LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER ALL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION IN GA MOVING
WESTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE THEN WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED ISO WORDING IN AFTER 19Z FOR THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET.
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER AL AND MEAN MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE ANY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT TRAVERSE THE AREA AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME ISO DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL STILL BE RUNNING
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES PUSH SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL DRAG A FRONT/BOUNDARY THRU THE AREA
WED/WED NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT WITH
LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NO LOW LEVEL JET...AND LITTLE
SHEAR DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MORE OR
LESS JUST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS IN THE NW AS CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER. LOCATIONS IN THE
SE COULD STILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST AND WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
BOUNDARY THRU ON THU. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF
WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE...BUT DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE FIRST BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE
AREA. SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR NOW.
THE MAIN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THRU THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
NW FLOW ALOFT COULD PRESENT SOME TROUBLES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
MCS DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS BUT WILL WORRY ABOUT THAT LATER.
19
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH MOSTLY IFR TO MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS PREVAILING FROM THE
SOUTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ANTICIPATED. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE INTO THE PLANNING PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
56/GDG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 88 64 88 69 82 / 10 10 10 10 40
ANNISTON 88 66 89 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 40
BIRMINGHAM 89 68 90 68 83 / 10 10 10 10 40
TUSCALOOSA 92 65 92 68 83 / 10 10 10 20 40
CALERA 89 67 90 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 30
AUBURN 87 66 88 67 85 / 10 10 10 10 30
MONTGOMERY 92 66 92 69 88 / 10 10 10 10 30
TROY 89 64 91 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 201113 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPED
TO PRODUCE AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A
REPEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY A BIT FURTHER EAST...AS THIS LOW SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST
WAS HELPING TO BRING WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE DEEP
SOUTH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THIS RIDGE...NOTED FROM GEORGIA TO
VIRGINIA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...
MAINLY JUST TO OUR EAST. YESTERDAY...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
SYSTEM LIKELY PRODUCED OVER 5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TN...NW
GA...AND FAR NE AL. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THAT RAIN HAS RESULTED IN
AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE AFFECTING PARTS OF NE ALABAMA.
LIGHTER FOG/MIST WAS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SO FAR HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE REGION SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER TO
THE EAST TODAY...HELPING TO END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...MORE WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUE...WITH HIGHS
NEARING 90 ACROSS PARTS OF NW ALABAMA. A SOUTHERLY 5-15 MPH FLOW WILL
CONTINUE A FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TODAY...AND MID 60S ON TUE...
WITH CORRESPONDING HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BRING MORE STRONG STORMS TO THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY AND ON TUE. AS A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM NEARS...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THIS REGION TUE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO THUR...AS THE FRONT GETS EVER
CLOSER. GIVEN THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN CHARACTER...WILL
HOLD OFF ON LIKELY POPS THIS GO AROUND FOR WED. SOME OF THE STORMS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE STRONGER SHEAR
AND OTHER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
THE FRONT EAST OF THE VALLEY THU/FRI WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEEKEND ARRIVES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER HI/LO
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH VALUES CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
RSB
&&
.AVIATION... FOR 12Z TAFS...
LOW CLOUDS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/ADVECTING ACROSS NRN AL WITH CIGS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 008-015 AGL. BELIEVE MVFR CIGS /1000-2000FT/ WILL
PREVAIL...BUT COULD SEE PERIODIC DIPS TO IFR CAT (NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT EITHER TERMINAL). SHORT RANGE /RAP/ MODELS SHOWING
MOISTURE AND LOW CIGS COULD HANG AROUND THROUGH 15-17Z. BY 17Z...SRLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP AND HEATING WILL DISSIPATE MAJORITY OF SHALLOW LOW
CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/TUES...THOUGH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHALLOW FOG COULD REDEVELOP BRIEFLY ONCE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
DJN.83
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200945
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
445 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BROAD
UPPER TROF ROTATE THRU THE REGION BRINGING A COUPLE OF WEAK
BOUNDARIES INTO/THRU THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A STRATUS DECK THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL AL. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE FAR NE AS DEW POINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. ELSEWHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
60S.
LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER ALL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION IN GA MOVING
WESTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE THEN WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED ISO WORDING IN AFTER 19Z FOR THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET.
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER AL AND MEAN MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE ANY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT TRAVERSE THE AREA AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME ISO DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL STILL BE RUNNING
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES PUSH SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL DRAG A FRONT/BOUNDARY THRU THE AREA
WED/WED NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT WITH
LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NO LOW LEVEL JET...AND LITTLE
SHEAR DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MORE OR
LESS JUST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS IN THE NW AS CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER. LOCATIONS IN THE
SE COULD STILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST AND WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
BOUNDARY THRU ON THU. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF
WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE...BUT DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE FIRST BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE
AREA. SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR NOW.
THE MAIN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THRU THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
NW FLOW ALOFT COULD PRESENT SOME TROUBLES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
MCS DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS BUT WILL WORRY ABOUT THAT LATER.
19
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z BEFORE LOW CIGS MAY
BEGIN TO FORM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT CIGS AND
VIS DIPPING TO IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAK AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN INDICATED.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 88 64 88 69 82 / 10 10 10 10 40
ANNISTON 88 66 89 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 40
BIRMINGHAM 89 68 90 68 83 / 10 10 10 10 40
TUSCALOOSA 92 65 92 68 83 / 10 10 10 20 40
CALERA 89 67 90 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 30
AUBURN 87 66 88 67 85 / 10 10 10 10 30
MONTGOMERY 92 66 92 69 88 / 10 10 10 10 30
TROY 89 64 91 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200902
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
402 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPED
TO PRODUCE AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A
REPEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY A BIT FURTHER EAST...AS THIS LOW SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST
WAS HELPING TO BRING WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE DEEP
SOUTH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THIS RIDGE...NOTED FROM GEORGIA TO
VIRGINIA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...
MAINLY JUST TO OUR EAST. YESTERDAY...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
SYSTEM LIKELY PRODUCED OVER 5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TN...NW
GA...AND FAR NE AL. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THAT RAIN HAS RESULTED IN
AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE AFFECTING PARTS OF NE ALABAMA.
LIGHTER FOG/MIST WAS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SO FAR HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE REGION SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER TO
THE EAST TODAY...HELPING TO END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...MORE WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUE...WITH HIGHS
NEARING 90 ACROSS PARTS OF NW ALABAMA. A SOUTHERLY 5-15 MPH FLOW WILL
CONTINUE A FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TODAY...AND MID 60S ON TUE...
WITH CORRESPONDING HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BRING MORE STRONG STORMS TO THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY AND ON TUE. AS A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM NEARS...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THIS REGION TUE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO THUR...AS THE FRONT GETS EVER
CLOSER. GIVEN THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN CHARACTER...WILL
HOLD OFF ON LIKELY POPS THIS GO AROUND FOR WED. SOME OF THE STORMS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE STRONGER SHEAR
AND OTHER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
THE FRONT EAST OF THE VALLEY THU/FRI WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEEKEND ARRIVES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER HI/LO
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH VALUES CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
RSB
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...OUTFLOW FROM RAIN-COOLED AIR HAS DROPPED TEMPS/DEWPTS
ABOUT 5-10F COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME
LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP AFT 09Z AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV. MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS /MVFR/ DEVELOP BTWN
11Z-13Z. THIS IS NOT COMPLETELY UNREASONABLE AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS
STILL RATHER MOIST AND SRLY LOW LVL FLOW EXISTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
TT/DJN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 89 68 89 69 / 10 10 10 20
SHOALS 89 68 90 68 / 10 10 20 30
VINEMONT 87 66 87 67 / 10 10 10 20
FAYETTEVILLE 87 66 87 67 / 10 10 10 20
ALBERTVILLE 86 67 84 67 / 10 10 10 20
FORT PAYNE 87 65 87 65 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KMOB 200859
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...IN A PERSISTENT WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SATELLITE DATA SHOWS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. A MID
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...EXPECT MORE OF A SUNNY DAY WHICH ALLOWS FOR GOOD
INSOLATION AND WARMING. CONSIDERING MORE SUN...THE BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD
OCCURRING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT PROFILES
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS...THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIFTING INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S TO LOWER 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR. SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COOLER GULF WATERS KEEP
BEACH TEMPERATURES MODIFIED INTO THE LOWER 80S THERE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS
WE SEE IN LOW TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THE
PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...WILL TREND HIGHER THAN
THE MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. /10
A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS
LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE WITH ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER TO RESULT IN DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT SOME. THIS WILL
LIMIT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SUBSIDENCE
OF THE RIDGE...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATEX EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE
CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-65...ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FAR HOW
EAST THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF DEWPOINTS
ONCE AGAIN MIXING OUT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE RESIDUAL
RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE
FOR NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. BY THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND COMBINED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH MLCAPES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 2000 J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS
ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE INLAND CWA DURING THE DAY
AND PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE QUICKLY GETS
SCOURED OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...SO WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE COASTAL ZONES...BUT IT VERY WELL COULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
ALL AREAS. A DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS BUT
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. 34/JFB
&&
.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...ANY IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AROUND 12Z
THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
DAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING...TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 13 KTS
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. /10
&&
.MARINE...WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH...TO
ACROSS THE GULF...MAINTAINS LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...POSSIBLY A LITTLE STRONGER NEAR THE COAST...OVER BAYS
AND SOUNDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAILY AND NORTHWARD
ADVANCING COASTAL SEA BREEZE. RAINFREE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR SHORE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF PIVOTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK...THE
EXTENDED RANGE WEATHER MODELS BRING A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AN
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. SEAS
TO CHANGE LITTLE THIS WEEK...RANGING 1 TO 2 FEET. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 87 68 87 67 86 / 05 05 05 05 30
PENSACOLA 87 70 87 70 85 / 05 05 05 05 20
DESTIN 82 71 83 72 81 / 05 05 10 05 20
EVERGREEN 91 65 92 66 90 / 05 05 10 10 30
WAYNESBORO 90 65 90 66 86 / 05 05 10 10 40
CAMDEN 91 65 91 66 88 / 05 05 10 05 30
CRESTVIEW 91 64 92 66 90 / 05 05 10 05 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200535 AAD
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1235 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 821 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DISSIPATED NEAR INTERSTATE 65...AND THE WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALSO DISSIPATED. WILL BE AMENDING THE ZONES
SHORTLY TO DROP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
CLOUD FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE TEMP FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE...AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES WITH THE
UPDATE.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...OUTFLOW FROM RAIN-COOLED AIR HAS DROPPED TEMPS/DEWPTS
ABOUT 5-10F COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME
LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP AFT 09Z AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV. MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS /MVFR/ DEVELOP BTWN
11Z-13Z. THIS IS NOT COMPLETELY UNREASONABLE AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS
STILL RATHER MOIST AND SRLY LOW LVL FLOW EXISTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
TT/DJN
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200456
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA HELPED CONTINUE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE ABOUT 6 PM...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THE STORMS HAVE BEEN DECREASING. NO MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
IN THE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED THE FLOODING EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.
THERE`S 3 OR 4 ACTIVE CELLS REMAINING...ALL NEAR THE US-280
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THAT THE DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND PERHAPS FOGGY HERE AND THERE...BUT THE RAIN SHOULD BE
DONE. WILL HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SOON.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z BEFORE LOW CIGS MAY
BEGIN TO FORM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT CIGS AND
VIS DIPPING TO IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAK AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN INDICATED.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 90 64 88 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 66 88 66 89 66 / 20 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 67 90 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 92 65 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 67 89 67 90 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 66 88 66 88 65 / 50 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 67 91 66 92 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
TROY 67 89 64 91 67 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
61/87
000
FXUS64 KMOB 200436 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION (20.06Z ISSUANCE)...LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AS WELL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 09Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. /13
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE AN ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY TONIGHT. A POSSIBLE WILDCARD FOR TONIGHT IN THE POPS IS A
SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OVER WESTERN GA. LOOKS LIKE ANY OUTFLOWS WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE FA...AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. BUT THINGS
WITH ACTIVE SYSTEMS...THINGS DON`T ALWAYS WORK OUT THE WAY ON
INTENDS...SO FEEL KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS IS WARRANTED.
MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CAUSING THE GA SYSTEM MOVES OVER NE-ERN FLA
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN MISS IN AN UPPER RIDGE THAT
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SOUNDINGS OVER THE AREA STILL SHOW A
GOOD CAP ABOVE THE SURFACE LIMITING CONVECTION...BUT LESS THAN THEY
WERE INDICATING FOR TODAY. FEEL THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVE A SMALL POP IN THERE JUST THE
SAME. /16
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY EVENING BREAKS DOWN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF A TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AND ADVANCES TO NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE
RIDGE MEANWHILE REMAINS NEAR THE COAST AND MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE EFFECTS OF RIDGING SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT
COVERAGE FROM ANY THAT DEVELOP IS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT MENTION OF
PRECIP. THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVELY FAVORABLE OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN BUT WITHOUT A FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE CONVECTION...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PLAINS UPPER TROF WEAKENING
WHILE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN STATES. THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY THEN A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN IMPROVED
PROFILE OVERALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION FURTHEST
FROM LINGERING EFFECTS OF RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LINGERING
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. /29
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...HPC PREFERS A BLEND OF THE
00Z ECMWF AND GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...AND IT WAS NOTED THAT THE 12Z GFS WAS CLOSE TO THIS BLENDED
SOLUTION AS WELL ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE PERIOD. THE WEAKENED
UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES AGAIN WHILE CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...MOVING OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION.
THE WEAK SURFACE TROF MEANDERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
AND MEANWHILE MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENSION OF A WEAK FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER A
BRIEF DELAY ON FRIDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A SEA BREEZE...THE
WEAK FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK TROF/FRONT AS WELL AS AN
EXPECTED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BECOMES EASTERLY BY
SUNDAY WITH A SEA BREEZE BECOMING MORE DEVELOPED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY FOR
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WITH COVERAGE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY
DRIER AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA. EVEN DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
FURTHER INTO THE REGION AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A SIMILAR TREND FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29
&&
.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEX WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THURSDAY ON...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE WEST...TO OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEX AND BRINGS A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE
AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING
A MODERATE ENHANCEMENT TO THE NOW OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
AM NOT ANTICIPATING SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ATTM. /16
&&
.FIRE...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS WILL BE
GENERALLY GOOD WITH DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT AND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO A
QUARTER MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 69 87 68 87 66 / 10 10 05 05 10
PENSACOLA 70 85 70 86 69 / 05 05 05 05 10
DESTIN 72 80 71 83 70 / 05 05 05 10 10
EVERGREEN 67 91 66 91 65 / 10 05 05 10 10
WAYNESBORO 70 90 67 90 65 / 10 10 05 10 10
CAMDEN 67 91 67 90 65 / 10 05 05 10 10
CRESTVIEW 66 89 64 91 65 / 05 05 05 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200121 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
821 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DISSIPATED NEAR INTERSTATE 65...AND THE WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALSO DISSIPATED. WILL BE AMENDING THE ZONES
SHORTLY TO DROP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
CLOUD FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE TEMP FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE...AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES WITH THE
UPDATE.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 609 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIODS FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE KEPT IN A TEMPO
MVFR VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3-5 MILES AT BOTH HSV AND MSL BETWEEN 10Z TO
14Z. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AFTER 14Z IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200107
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
807 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA HELPED CONTINUE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE ABOUT 6 PM...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN DECREASING. NO MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED THE FLOODING EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...AND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. THERE`S 3 OR 4
ACTIVE CELLS REMAINING...ALL NEAR THE US-280 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THAT
THE DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. AFTER
THAT TIME...CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND PERHAPS FOGGY HERE
AND THERE...BUT THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE. WILL HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS
OUT SOON.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z BEFORE LOW CIGS BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT CANNON RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KBHM. CIGS AND VIS DIPPING TO IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND AROUND DAYBREAK AS WEAK AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 192357
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LUCKILY THE BULK OF THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FASTER THAN MOST MODELS. WE WILL STILL NEED
TO WATCH THE COLD POOL AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD POOL WE ARE ALSO WATCHING A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND MCS IS
IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WILL SLIDE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
FFA THROUGH 7 PM. IN ADDITION WE HAVE INTRODUCED SEVERE INTO THE
HWO AS WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MUCAPES ARE IN
EXCESS OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG IN FAR NORTHEAST AL. THE MAIN WEAKNESS
THAT THE STORMS ARE GOING TO SLIDE DOWN WOULD BE THE OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY 1 AM. AFTER
THAT...THERE IS PLENTY OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AROUND SO LOW CLOUDS
AND OR PATCHY WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT THE FOG MAY DEVELOP FIRST AND THEN THE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO
THE AREA. DO NOT SEE ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF LESS THAN ONE MILE SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
FOR MONDAY...DRY EVERYWHERE AS THE HIGH IS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE BOARD. ON
TUESDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND WE WILL TRY TO GET SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...MORE OF YOUR SUMMERTIME POPCORN VARIETY.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DESCEND INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH...UNTIL A
SECOND FRONT CLEARS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE EURO
AND GFS AGREE ON THIS SO ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z BEFORE LOW CIGS BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT CANNON RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KBHM. CIGS AND VIS DIPPING TO IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND AROUND DAYBREAK AS WEAK AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 90 64 88 68 / 90 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 66 88 66 89 66 / 90 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 67 90 68 90 68 / 50 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 92 65 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 67 89 67 90 68 / 40 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 66 88 66 88 65 / 40 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 67 91 66 92 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
TROY 67 89 64 91 67 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...RANDOLPH.
&&
$$
16/87
000
FXUS64 KHUN 192321 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
621 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE AMENDING ZONES SHORTLY TO KEEP IN MENTION OF AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WESTWARD TO ALONG
INTERSTATE 65...WITH SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES WEST. IT APPEARS
THAT THE BOUNDARY HAS FINALLY MOVED FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT AREA SO THAT THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. WILL ADD IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL AROUND MID
EVENING...AS ALL OF THE PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. NO OTHER IMMEDIATE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 609 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIODS FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE KEPT IN A TEMPO
MVFR VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3-5 MILES AT BOTH HSV AND MSL BETWEEN 10Z TO
14Z. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AFTER 14Z IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 192309 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
609 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF ERN TN SWD
INTO NRN GA THIS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS BEING IMPACTED
MULTIPLE TIMES BY CELL TRAINING. THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART HAS
MANAGED TO REMAIN JUST E OF THE AL/GA STATE LINE...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED WELL E OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE
BUILDING RIDGE PATTERN TO THE W HAS MANAGED TO KEEP THE CNTRL/WRN
HALF OF THE AREA RAIN FREE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HRS. CERTAINLY THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD
GIVEN THE AMPLE HEATING FROM TODAY. ENHANCED UPPER FORCING COUPLED
WITH ML CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD THEN DIMINISH
WITH THE ONSET OF THE EVENING PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC STATES...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN WEAKENS/LIFTS TO THE NE.
OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WX CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED TO
PREVAIL INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS DRIER MID LEVEL MID AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE W LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE SE REGION SHIFTING TO THE
E ON MON...WITH THE SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN GULF REMAINING FAIRLY
STAGNANT. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BOTH MON AND TUE...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS HOVER
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S RANGE.
THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE GOING PAST MID
WEEK...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE NRN/MID PLAINS
SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. GLOBAL MODELS STILL
INDICATE A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING INVOF OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA WED/THU...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SWD INTO CNTRL TX. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL XPCTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WED INTO THU...WITH THE FRONT THEN
WEAKENING AS IS CROSSES INTO THE CNTRL TN VALLEY. WITH AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WELL IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP STARTING TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION...AND THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY WED. PRECIP COVERAGE IS XPCTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY SCT INTO THU WITH THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIP THEN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF FROM THE W LATE THU
AND INTO FRI AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE E.
THERE STILL REMAINS A LITTLE BIT OF TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE
LATEST MODELS WITH THE REINFORCING FRONT DIVING SWD THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRI. NEVERTHELESS...SLIGHTLY MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL WX
CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIODS FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE KEPT IN A TEMPO
MVFR VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3-5 MILES AT BOTH HSV AND MSL BETWEEN 10Z TO
14Z. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AFTER 14Z IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KMOB 192022
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
322 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE AN ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY TONIGHT. A POSSIBLE WILDCARD FOR TONIGHT IN THE POPS IS A
SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OVER WESTERN GA. LOOKS LIKE ANY OUTFLOWS WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE FA...AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. BUT THINGS
WITH ACTIVE SYSTEMS...THINGS DON`T ALWAYS WORK OUT THE WAY ON
INTENDS...SO FEEL KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS IS WARRANTED.
MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CAUSING THE GA SYSTEM MOVES OVER NE-ERN FLA
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN MISS IN AN UPPER RIDGE THAT
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SOUNDINGS OVER THE AREA STILL SHOW A
GOOD CAP ABOVE THE SURFACE LIMITING CONVECTION...BUT LESS THAN THEY
WERE INDICATING FOR TODAY. FEEL THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVE A SMALL POP IN THERE JUST THE
SAME. /16
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY EVENING BREAKS DOWN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF A TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AND ADVANCES TO NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE
RIDGE MEANWHILE REMAINS NEAR THE COAST AND MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE EFFECTS OF RIDGING SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT
COVERAGE FROM ANY THAT DEVELOP IS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT MENTION OF
PRECIP. THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVELY FAVORABLE OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN BUT WITHOUT A FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE CONVECTION...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PLAINS UPPER TROF WEAKENING
WHILE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN STATES. THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY THEN A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN IMPROVED
PROFILE OVERALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION FURTHEST
FROM LINGERING EFFECTS OF RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LINGERING
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. /29
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...HPC PREFERS A BLEND OF THE
00Z ECMWF AND GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...AND IT WAS NOTED THAT THE 12Z GFS WAS CLOSE TO THIS BLENDED
SOLUTION AS WELL ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE PERIOD. THE WEAKENED
UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES AGAIN WHILE CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...MOVING OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION.
THE WEAK SURFACE TROF MEANDERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
AND MEANWHILE MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENSION OF A WEAK FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER A
BRIEF DELAY ON FRIDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A SEA BREEZE...THE
WEAK FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK TROF/FRONT AS WELL AS AN
EXPECTED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BECOMES EASTERLY BY
SUNDAY WITH A SEA BREEZE BECOMING MORE DEVELOPED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY FOR
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WITH COVERAGE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY
DRIER AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA. EVEN DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
FURTHER INTO THE REGION AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A SIMILAR TREND FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29
&&
.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CIGS/VISBYS ACROSS THE FA EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A
STRATUS DECK MOVING INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z...WITH
CIGS/VISBYS DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS. SOME LOCAL DROPS TO LIFR
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY NEAR KMOB...ARE LIKELY. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TO RISE QUICKLY. /16
&&
.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEX WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THURSDAY ON...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE WEST...TO OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEX AND BRINGS A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE
AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING
A MODERATE ENHANCEMENT TO THE NOW OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
AM NOT ANTICIPATING SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ATTM. /16
&&
.FIRE...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS WILL BE
GENERALLY GOOD WITH DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT AND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO A
QUARTER MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 69 87 68 87 66 / 10 10 05 05 10
PENSACOLA 70 85 70 86 69 / 05 05 05 05 10
DESTIN 72 80 71 83 70 / 05 05 05 10 10
EVERGREEN 67 91 66 91 65 / 10 05 05 10 10
WAYNESBORO 70 90 67 90 65 / 10 10 05 10 10
CAMDEN 67 91 67 90 65 / 10 05 05 10 10
CRESTVIEW 66 89 64 91 65 / 05 05 05 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 192015
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LUCKILY THE BULK OF THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FASTER THAN MOST MODELS. WE WILL STILL NEED
TO WATCH THE COLD POOL AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD POOL WE ARE ALSO WATCHING A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND MCS IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WILL SLIDE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA THROUGH
7 PM. IN ADDITION WE HAVE INTRODUCED SEVERE INTO THE HWO AS WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MUCAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 2500 TO
3000 J/KG IN FAR NORTHEAST AL. THE MAIN WEAKNESS THAT THE STORMS
ARE GOING TO SLIDE DOWN WOULD BE THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY 1 AM. AFTER THAT...THERE
IS PLENTY OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AROUND SO LOW CLOUDS AND OR PATCHY
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT THE FOG MAY
DEVELOP FIRST AND THEN THE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. DO NOT SEE
ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF LESS THAN ONE MILE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
FOR MONDAY...DRY EVERYWHERE AS THE HIGH IS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE BOARD. ON
TUESDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND WE WILL TRY TO GET SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...MORE OF YOUR SUMMERTIME POPCORN VARIETY.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DESCEND INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH...UNTIL A SECOND
FRONT CLEARS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
AGREE ON THIS SO ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
DUE TO SATURATION AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 4KFT...COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS REGION FROM SOUTHWEST...MIXING
HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO AREA AND ANY EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN AL ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN GA. KANB HAS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WITH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS FORMATION...AND WITH HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL...ALL AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AGAIN UNTIL AFTER 15Z MONDAY.
STEFKOVICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 90 64 88 68 / 70 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 66 88 66 89 66 / 70 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 67 90 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 92 65 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 67 89 67 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 66 88 66 88 65 / 50 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 67 91 66 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TROY 67 89 64 91 67 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...RANDOLPH.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191940
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
240 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF ERN TN SWD
INTO NRN GA THIS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS BEING IMPACTED
MULTIPLE TIMES BY CELL TRAINING. THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART HAS
MANAGED TO REMAIN JUST E OF THE AL/GA STATE LINE...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED WELL E OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE
BUILDING RIDGE PATTERN TO THE W HAS MANAGED TO KEEP THE CNTRL/WRN
HALF OF THE AREA RAIN FREE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HRS. CERTAINLY THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD
GIVEN THE AMPLE HEATING FROM TODAY. ENHANCED UPPER FORCING COUPLED
WITH ML CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD THEN DIMINISH
WITH THE ONSET OF THE EVENING PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC STATES...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN WEAKENS/LIFTS TO THE NE.
OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WX CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED TO
PREVAIL INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS DRIER MID LEVEL MID AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE W LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE SE REGION SHIFTING TO THE
E ON MON...WITH THE SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN GULF REMAINING FAIRLY
STAGNANT. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BOTH MON AND TUE...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS HOVER
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S RANGE.
THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE GOING PAST MID
WEEK...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE NRN/MID PLAINS
SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. GLOBAL MODELS STILL
INDICATE A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING INVOF OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA WED/THU...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SWD INTO CNTRL TX. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL XPCTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WED INTO THU...WITH THE FRONT THEN
WEAKENING AS IS CROSSES INTO THE CNTRL TN VALLEY. WITH AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WELL IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP STARTING TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION...AND THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY WED. PRECIP COVERAGE IS XPCTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY SCT INTO THU WITH THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIP THEN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF FROM THE W LATE THU
AND INTO FRI AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE E.
THERE STILL REMAINS A LITTLE BIT OF TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE
LATEST MODELS WITH THE REINFORCING FRONT DIVING SWD THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRI. NEVERTHELESS...SLIGHTLY MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL WX
CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS A RESULT THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
TAPER OFF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS KHSV STILL HAS A CHC OF VCSH OR
VCTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE...DUE TO RIDGING...OVER NW
AL SHOULD KEEP KMSL PCPN FREE. AFTER 00Z THE CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE
OVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILINGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z AT BOTH TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
07
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 67 89 68 89 / 10 10 10 10
SHOALS 67 90 68 90 / 10 10 10 20
VINEMONT 66 87 66 87 / 10 10 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 65 87 65 87 / 10 10 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 65 87 66 86 / 10 10 10 10
FORT PAYNE 63 87 64 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191914
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
214 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LUCKILY THE BULK OF THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FASTER THAN MOST MODELS. WE WILL STILL NEED
TO WATCH THE COLD POOL AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD POOL WE ARE ALSO WATCHING A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL HELP INCREASE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY 10 PM. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE IS PLENTY OF
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AROUND SO LOW CLOUDS AND OR PATCHY WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT THE FOG MAY DEVELOP FIRST
AND THEN THE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. DO NOT SEE ANY
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LESS THAN ONE MILE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME.
FOR MONDAY...DRY EVERYWHERE AS THE HIGH IS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE BOARD. ON
TUESDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND WE WILL TRY TO GET SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...MORE OF YOUR SUMMERTIME POPCORN VARIETY.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DESCEND INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH...UNTIL A SECOND
FRONT CLEARS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
AGREE ON THIS SO ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
DUE TO SATURATION AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 4KFT...COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS REGION FROM SOUTHWEST...MIXING
HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO AREA AND ANY EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN AL ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN GA. KANB HAS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WITH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS FORMATION...AND WITH HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL...ALL AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AGAIN UNTIL AFTER 15Z MONDAY.
STEFKOVICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 90 64 88 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 66 88 66 89 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 67 90 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 92 65 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 67 89 67 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 66 88 66 88 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 67 91 66 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TROY 67 89 64 91 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CLAY...
CLEBURNE...LEE...RANDOLPH...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191820
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
110 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING ARE WELCOMED
AFTER FLOODING AFFECTED EASTERN LOCATIONS YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN
ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT CAUTION OR FLOOD STAGE.
SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFICS. MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXPECT THE EAST WHERE RAINFALL IS NOT
NEEDED. THE SLOW MOVING PATTERN WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MORNING...A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND PROVIDING LIFT FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH THIS TROUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA
STRETCHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CIRRUS FROM A MCS
ROTATING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN OK AND KS IS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WAS
ONGOING EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS DISSIPATED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE FORCING FROM THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL HELP SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WHOLE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWS REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS ANY RAINFALL COULD COMPLICATE FLOOD PROBLEMS.
WILL NOT CARRY ANY POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY DENSE FOG PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL COME FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE
FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MIDWEST. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS AND NO MENTION OF
SEVERE IN THE HWO.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL
FAVOR THE DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
DUE TO SATURATION AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 4KFT...COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS REGION FROM SOUTHWEST...MIXING
HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO AREA AND ANY EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN AL ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN GA. KANB HAS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WITH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS FORMATION...AND WITH HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL...ALL AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AGAIN UNTIL AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STEFKOVICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 84 67 90 64 89 / 50 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 85 66 89 66 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 87 67 90 68 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 89 67 92 65 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 87 67 88 67 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 86 66 88 66 88 / 50 30 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 90 67 91 66 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
TROY 89 67 89 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191734
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1134 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NOW OVER THE MS/AL STATE LINE WHICH PUTS THE ERN
HALF OF OUR CWA IN NW FLOW. THERE WERE A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES
CAUGHT UP IN THIS NW FLOW WHICH WAS DUMPING VERY HVY RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF ERN TN AND THE NRN HALF OF GA. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS EAST
THIS AFTN...THE CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL TAPER OFF. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH A LOW POP (20/30 PERCENT) FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF I65...WEST OF I65 WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN. NO SVR WX IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTN...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HVY RAIN.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS A RESULT THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
TAPER OFF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS KHSV STILL HAS A CHC OF VCSH OR
VCTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE...DUE TO RIDGING...OVER NW
AL SHOULD KEEP KMSL PCPN FREE. AFTER 00Z THE CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE
OVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILINGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z AT BOTH TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
07
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191634
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1134 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
LOWERED/ADJUSTED POPS...TWEAKED SKY COVER AND TEMPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NOW OVER THE MS/AL STATE LINE WHICH PUTS THE ERN
HALF OF OUR CWA IN NW FLOW. THERE WERE A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES
CAUGHT UP IN THIS NW FLOW WHICH WAS DUMPING VERY HVY RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF ERN TN AND THE NRN HALF OF GA. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS EAST
THIS AFTN...THE CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL TAPER OFF. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH A LOW POP (20/30 PERCENT) FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF I65...WEST OF I65 WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN. NO SVR WX IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTN...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HVY RAIN.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 629 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
SHALLOW FOG HAS RESULTED IN MVFR TO MARGINAL IFR VSBY AT BOTH
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MRNG. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF LOWER
CIGS (~600 FT AGL) ADVECTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
LOWER /IFR/ CIGS TO IMPACT KHSV AT LEAST THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY PREVAIL AND INCREASING WIND/MIXING ERODE
HAZE/FOG LAYER WITHIN MOIST BNDRY LAYER. ANY SHRA/TSRA SHOULD STAY
EAST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
-SHRA/-TSRA. FORECASTERS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
DJN.83
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
A SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...WITH ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION ABOVE SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO EXPAND/INTENSIFY AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY/MIDDLE TENNESSEE -- IS FORECAST TO DIG SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. THUS...AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BE LESS INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH...AND INCREASINGLY
INFLUENCED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALIGNED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS A CLOSED LOW
EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- WITHIN A BROADER LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL WARMING AND
HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FROM WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 5-10 MPH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG BLOCKING
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL
FORCE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CLOSED LOW TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...LIKELY REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY
INFLUENCED BY A STRONG DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD BECOME
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL AND WILL ONLY
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ON TUESDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH A 15-25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA -- WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THIS...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S-70 DEGREE
RANGE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BUILDS NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE STRONGER CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE MOST
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A TRAILING MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FEATURES CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION -- MAINTAINING STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT IN THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. DURING THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY A
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CP AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION...WITH
THE GFS THE SLOWER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS -- BRINGING THE DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS MAINTAINING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS THE DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
70/DD
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191129 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
629 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
A SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...WITH ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION ABOVE SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO EXPAND/INTENSIFY AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY/MIDDLE TENNESSEE -- IS FORECAST TO DIG SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. THUS...AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BE LESS INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH...AND INCREASINGLY
INFLUENCED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALIGNED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS A CLOSED LOW
EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- WITHIN A BROADER LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL WARMING AND
HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FROM WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 5-10 MPH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG BLOCKING
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL
FORCE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CLOSED LOW TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...LIKELY REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY
INFLUENCED BY A STRONG DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD BECOME
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL AND WILL ONLY
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ON TUESDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH A 15-25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA -- WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THIS...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S-70 DEGREE
RANGE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BUILDS NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE STRONGER CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE MOST
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A TRAILING MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FEATURES CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION -- MAINTAINING STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT IN THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. DURING THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY A
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CP AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION...WITH
THE GFS THE SLOWER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS -- BRINGING THE DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS MAINTAINING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS THE DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
SHALLOW FOG HAS RESULTED IN MVFR TO MARGINAL IFR VSBY AT BOTH
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MRNG. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF LOWER
CIGS (~600 FT AGL) ADVECTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
LOWER /IFR/ CIGS TO IMPACT KHSV AT LEAST THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY PREVAIL AND INCREASING WIND/MIXING ERODE
HAZE/FOG LAYER WITHIN MOIST BNDRY LAYER. ANY SHRA/TSRA SHOULD STAY
EAST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
-SHRA/-TSRA. FORECASTERS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
DJN.83
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191126
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
626 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING ARE
WELCOMED AFTER FLOODING AFFECTED EASTERN LOCATIONS YESTERDAY...RESULTING
IN ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT CAUTION OR FLOOD
STAGE. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFICS. MOST
OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXPECT THE EAST WHERE
RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED. THE SLOW MOVING PATTERN WILL SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MORNING...A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND PROVIDING LIFT FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH THIS TROUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA
STRETCHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CIRRUS FROM A MCS
ROTATING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN OK AND KS IS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WAS
ONGOING EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS DISSIPATED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE FORCING FROM THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL HELP SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WHOLE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWS REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS ANY RAINFALL COULD COMPLICATE FLOOD PROBLEMS.
WILL NOT CARRY ANY POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY DENSE FOG PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL COME FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE FORCING
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW CROSSING
THE MIDWEST. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS AND NO MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE
HWO.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL
FAVOR THE DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ISO/SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY MAINLY IN THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SSW TODAY AT 5-10 KTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE
TO MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM SFC WINDS.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 84 67 90 64 89 / 50 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 85 66 89 66 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 87 67 90 68 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 89 67 92 65 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 87 67 88 67 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 86 66 88 66 88 / 50 30 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 90 67 91 66 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
TROY 89 67 89 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190957
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
457 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING ARE
WELCOMED AFTER FLOODING AFFECTED EASTERN LOCATIONS YESTERDAY...RESULTING
IN ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT CAUTION OR FLOOD
STAGE. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFICS. MOST
OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXPECT THE EAST WHERE
RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED. THE SLOW MOVING PATTERN WILL SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MORNING...A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND PROVIDING LIFT FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH THIS TROUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA
STRETCHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CIRRUS FROM A MCS
ROTATING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN OK AND KS IS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WAS
ONGOING EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS DISSIPATED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE FORCING FROM THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL HELP SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WHOLE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWS REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS ANY RAINFALL COULD COMPLICATE FLOOD PROBLEMS.
WILL NOT CARRY ANY POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY DENSE FOG PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL COME FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE FORCING
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW CROSSING
THE MIDWEST. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS AND NO MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE
HWO.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL
FAVOR THE DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT TAFS WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE CURRENT HOUR. EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
MOISTEN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS FORMING BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS IN THE NORTH AND EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KANB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR. IMPROVING CIGS
AND VIS SHOULD OCCUR BY 14Z AT ALL SITES.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 84 67 90 64 89 / 50 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 85 66 89 66 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 87 67 90 68 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 89 67 92 65 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 87 67 88 67 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 86 66 88 66 88 / 50 30 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 90 67 91 66 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
TROY 89 67 89 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 190952
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
452 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...WITH ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION ABOVE SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO EXPAND/INTENSIFY AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY/MIDDLE TENNESSEE -- IS FORECAST TO DIG SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. THUS...AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BE LESS INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH...AND INCREASINGLY
INFLUENCED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALIGNED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS A CLOSED LOW
EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- WITHIN A BROADER LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL WARMING AND
HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FROM WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 5-10 MPH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG BLOCKING
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL
FORCE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CLOSED LOW TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...LIKELY REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY
INFLUENCED BY A STRONG DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD BECOME
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL AND WILL ONLY
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ON TUESDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH A 15-25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA -- WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THIS...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S-70 DEGREE
RANGE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BUILDS NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE STRONGER CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE MOST
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A TRAILING MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FEATURES CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION -- MAINTAINING STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT IN THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. DURING THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY A
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CP AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION...WITH
THE GFS THE SLOWER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS -- BRINGING THE DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS MAINTAINING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS THE DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY IN FOG WILL PERSIST AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE AFT 09Z.
POCKETS OF SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NW AL IN MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. HAVE ADDED VCSH AT KMSL AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AS SHORT- RANGE HI RES MODELS DEPICT INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS N AL. MUCH OF SUNDAY /AFT 15Z/ IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH VSBY IMPROVING TO VFR AS S/SW WINDS INCREASE. ANY MVFR
CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AFT 15Z AS WELL.
TT/DJN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 83 68 88 69 / 50 10 10 10
SHOALS 87 68 89 68 / 30 10 10 10
VINEMONT 82 66 86 66 / 40 10 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 81 66 86 66 / 60 10 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 76 65 86 65 / 50 10 10 10
FORT PAYNE 79 63 86 64 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KMOB 190911
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING SHOW AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROF BRINGING QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM/ENHANCED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY FROM THE DAKOTAS...SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
GULF...NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
FEATURE WILL EASE EASTWARD TODAY...BRINGING COMPRESSIONAL SINKING AND
WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. RESULT WILL BE PROBABILITIES
OF THUNDERSTORMS A MEAGER 5 TO 10% AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 90 OVER THE
INTERIOR. WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE GULF WATERS...BEACH
AREAS LOOK TO SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...A BIT STRONGER CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE
RESULT OF THE SEABREEZE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FLOW AND BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...A PERSISTENCE TYPE APPROACH WILL FOLLOW INTO THE
EVENING WITH PATCHY...POSSIBLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THICKENING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.
/10
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS
MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT GIVEN FORECAST MLCAPES
OF 1500-2500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE...BUT
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NORTH
OF I-10. A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL MAINTAIN MUGGY
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT AS LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHICH WILL FEEL LESSER EFFECTS OF THE RESIDUAL
RIDGING. WILL MAINTAIN 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF THE
COAST AND WEST OF I-65...WITH LOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT WNW-NW MID AND UPPER FLOW
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATED
WELL TO THE WEST OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON AMPLIFYING
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS
RIDGING INTO THE AREA. WILL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPS WED-SAT VERY SIMILAR TO VALUES
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
34/JFB
&&
.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...WILL START THE PACKAGE WITH POTENTIAL
OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THRU ABOUT 14Z BEFORE CIGS/VSBYS LIFT MID
TO LATE MORNING DUE TO ONSET OF MIXING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING RANGE FROM 8 TO 13 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
LOWER...BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 20.00Z. /10
&&
.MARINE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...POSSIBLY A LITTLE
STRONGER NEAR THE COAST...OVER BAYS AND SOUNDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DUE TO DAILY AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING COASTAL SEA BREEZE. SMALL SEA
STATES WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY
HALF OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 86 69 87 68 87 / 05 05 10 05 10
PENSACOLA 85 71 85 70 86 / 05 05 10 05 10
DESTIN 82 71 83 71 82 / 05 05 10 05 10
EVERGREEN 89 65 91 66 91 / 05 05 10 05 10
WAYNESBORO 88 67 90 66 90 / 05 05 10 05 10
CAMDEN 90 66 91 66 90 / 10 05 10 05 10
CRESTVIEW 90 65 91 66 91 / 05 05 10 05 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 190545 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 907 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
WILL BE AMENDING THE ZONES SHORTLY TO LOWER THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE THE CULPRITS FOR THE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE CONTINUING TO FORM. THE AREAS OF EMPHASIS FOR
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE
AND ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND HAVE SLIGHTLY TWEAKED
TEMPS UPWARD IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPS. HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO IR SATELLITE TRENDING THIS EVENING.
HAVE NOT MADE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND THE ZONES WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY IN FOG WILL PERSIST AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE AFT 09Z.
POCKETS OF SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NW AL IN MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. HAVE ADDED VCSH AT KMSL AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AS SHORT-RANGE HI RES MODELS DEPICT INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS N AL. MUCH OF SUNDAY /AFT 15Z/ IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH VSBY IMPROVING TO VFR AS S/SW WINDS INCREASE. ANY MVFR
CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AFT 15Z AS WELL.
TT/DJN
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KMOB 190505 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1205 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION [19.06Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS THE AREA. PREVAILING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS FROM 900 TO
1200 FEET...FOLLOWED BY A PREVAILING IFR CEILING BETWEEN 400 TO 600
FEET AFTER 19.09Z. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR CRITERIA A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY OR AROUND 19.15Z...AND SCATTER OUT AROUND
3000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. /22
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE FIRST
TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS POPS/WX. AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH ALONG THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...MORE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES NE INTO THE RIDGE. MODEL
TIMING IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THIS ENERGY MOVING OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. JUST LOOKING AT
THIS...AM TEMPTED TO PUT IN POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING. ON THE OTHER HAND...LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA...THERE IS A NOSE OF WARM AIR EVENT AT AROUND
5K`/850MB. CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS NOSE IS TOO MUCH FOR DAYTIME
HEATING TO OVERCOME (THOUGH NAM IS MORE BORDERLINE)...SO AM LIMITING
POPS FOR SUNDAY. FEEL THERE WILL BE A SHRA/TSRA OR TWO OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A POP. MORE
LIKE THE CURRENT LOTTERY ODDS...THE VERY GREAT MAJORITY OF THE ARE
WILL BE RAIN-FREE.
FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A HIGH CHANCE OF A STRATUS/DENSE FOG
EVENT TONIGHT. NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT PUT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. /16
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AT 00Z MONDAY MOVES SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
EVENING EVENTUALLY LEADING TO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA OTHERWISE REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE PLAINS...THEN THE
RIDGING WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROF BEGINS TO TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT.
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING NEAR THE COAST...AN ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER INLAND
WILL LEAD TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF THE SMALL COASTAL SHORTWAVE SUNDAY EVENING...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS DOMINANT RESULTING
IN A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONDITIONS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION DUE TO RIDGING DESPITE THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF
IDENTIFIED FORCING MECHANISMS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR THE UPPER SIXTIES CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
MID SIXTIES FURTHER INLAND...LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FORM ALTHOUGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS MAY
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT PER MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FOR NOW WILL ADD MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR
EXPECTED LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. /29
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
REGION BREAKS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF FURTHER
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AFTER THIS POINT...THERE IS FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. HPC HAS PREFERRED
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH APPEARS TO CONTINUE
THE PLAINS UPPER TROF SLOWLY EASTWARD EVENTUALLY REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE FEATURES ARE LESS UNCERTAIN...BUT
EXPECT A SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST UNTIL
A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHERE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF RIDGING ARE LEAST. FOLLOWING UPON THE BLENDED
APPROACH...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROF WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST MODEST DEEP LAYER LIFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A SEA BREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONSIDERING THE ABOVE
FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST OF THIS AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LINGERING CONVECTION.
POPS FOR THURSDAY ARE MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY
IN THE PATTERN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH
STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER INLAND...CONDUCIVE
FOR ANOTHER SEA BREEZE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE INCREASED
FURTHER AS WELL AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
CONVECTION COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. SO...CONSIDERING THIS WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.
POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ARE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
500 MB TROF WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...SUGGESTING LESS
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CONSIDERING THIS AND THAT OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW AND ENSEMBLE ECMWF POPS ARE LOW AS
WELL...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE ENSEMBLE BLEND HAS A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS THEN BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
STATES. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WITH
SUPPORT FROM OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...MAY
SEE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES. /29
AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CIGS/VISBYS ACROSS THE FA EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A STRATUS
DECK MOVING INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z...WITH CIGS/VISBYS
DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS. SOME LOCAL DROPS TO LIFR
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY NEAR KMOB...ARE LIKELY. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TO RISE QUICKLY. /16
MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEX WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST. /16
FIRE...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES IN THE
FOG WILL BE AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 68 86 68 87 67 / 05 05 05 10 10
PENSACOLA 70 85 70 85 70 / 05 05 05 10 10
DESTIN 71 83 70 80 71 / 05 05 05 10 10
EVERGREEN 66 91 65 91 66 / 05 05 05 10 10
WAYNESBORO 67 90 66 89 67 / 05 05 05 10 10
CAMDEN 66 91 65 90 66 / 05 05 05 10 10
CRESTVIEW 65 91 64 91 63 / 05 05 05 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190458
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL MAKE JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE USUAL TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TWEAKS...WILL ALSO BUMP UP POPS JUST A BIT IN A SMALL ZONE DOWN
AROUND MGM (MAINLY DUE TO THE ONGOING SHOWERS DOWN THERE). THE
CURRENT AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHEAST LOOKS FINE...AS THERE
ARE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO "PERCOLATE" UP THERE. GIVEN THE SCALE
OF THE PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT...I THINK IT IS CERTAINLY PRUDENT
TO MAINTAIN THE PRESENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS WELL. WILL HAVE
UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SOON.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT TAFS WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE CURRENT HOUR. EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
MOISTEN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS FORMING BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS IN THE NORTH AND EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KANB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR. IMPROVING CIGS
AND VIS SHOULD OCCUR BY 14Z AT ALL SITES.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 65 83 66 90 67 / 70 60 20 10 10
ANNISTON 65 83 65 89 67 / 70 70 30 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 66 85 66 89 67 / 50 30 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 87 66 89 66 / 20 10 10 10 10
CALERA 66 85 66 89 67 / 30 20 10 10 10
AUBURN 64 84 65 88 68 / 40 50 30 10 10
MONTGOMERY 66 87 66 91 67 / 20 20 10 10 10
TROY 65 87 66 91 66 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
61/87
000
FXUS64 KHUN 190207 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
907 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE AMENDING THE ZONES SHORTLY TO LOWER THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE THE CULPRITS FOR THE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE CONTINUING TO FORM. THE AREAS OF EMPHASIS FOR
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE
AND ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND HAVE SLIGHTLY TWEAKED
TEMPS UPWARD IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPS. HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO IR SATELLITE TRENDING THIS EVENING.
HAVE NOT MADE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND THE ZONES WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 632 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS...THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AT MSL AT 23Z CONTINUED
TO INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP CEILINGS THERE IN
THE HIGHER END OF THE MVFR CATEGORY UNTIL AROUND 01Z. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 08Z...AS
THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT MVFR CEILINGS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. WILL IMPROVE
CEILINGS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AT HSV AT 15Z AND MSL AT 16Z AND KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190127
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
827 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL MAKE JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE USUAL TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TWEAKS...WILL ALSO BUMP UP POPS JUST A BIT IN A SMALL ZONE DOWN
AROUND MGM (MAINLY DUE TO THE ONGOING SHOWERS DOWN THERE). THE
CURRENT AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHEAST LOOKS FINE...AS THERE
ARE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO "PERCOLATE" UP THERE. GIVEN THE SCALE
OF THE PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT...I THINK IT IS CERTAINLY PRUDENT
TO MAINTAIN THE PRESENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS WELL. WILL HAVE
UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SOON.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EVEN WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO THE WEST OF MGM AND
TOI... HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT FROM ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT ANB... WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
REGARDING MVFR VERSUS IFR CIGS... AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MVFR FOR
MOST SITES... WITH IFR INCLUDED ONLY AT EET BECAUSE IT TENDS TO GO
LOWER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS... AND ANB DUE TO PLENTIFUL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY MORNING.
77/GLEASON
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 182333 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION [19.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CIGS/VISBYS
THROUGH 19.03Z. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE AREA. A
PREVAILING MVFR CEILING AROUND 1500 FEET IS EXPECTED AFTER 19.03Z FOR
ALL THREE TAF SITES...FOLL LOWED BY A PREVAILING IFR CEILING BETWEEN
700 TO 900 FEET AFTER 19.08Z. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR
CRITERIA A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY OR AROUND 19.15Z...AND
SCATTER OUT AROUND 3000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE FIRST
TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS POPS/WX. AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH ALONG THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...MORE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES NE INTO THE RIDGE. MODEL
TIMING IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THIS ENERGY MOVING OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. JUST LOOKING AT
THIS...AM TEMPTED TO PUT IN POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING. ON THE OTHER HAND...LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA...THERE IS A NOSE OF WARM AIR EVENT AT AROUND
5K`/850MB. CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS NOSE IS TOO MUCH FOR DAYTIME
HEATING TO OVERCOME (THOUGH NAM IS MORE BORDERLINE)...SO AM LIMITING
POPS FOR SUNDAY. FEEL THERE WILL BE A SHRA/TSRA OR TWO OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A POP. MORE
LIKE THE CURRENT LOTTERY ODDS...THE VERY GREAT MAJORITY OF THE ARE
WILL BE RAIN-FREE.
FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A HIGH CHANCE OF A STRATUS/DENSE FOG
EVENT TONIGHT. NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT PUT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. /16
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AT 00Z MONDAY MOVES SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
EVENING EVENTUALLY LEADING TO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA OTHERWISE REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE PLAINS...THEN THE
RIDGING WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROF BEGINS TO TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT.
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING NEAR THE COAST...AN ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER INLAND
WILL LEAD TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF THE SMALL COASTAL SHORTWAVE SUNDAY EVENING...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS DOMINANT RESULTING
IN A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONDITIONS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION DUE TO RIDGING DESPITE THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF
IDENTIFIED FORCING MECHANISMS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR THE UPPER SIXTIES CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
MID SIXTIES FURTHER INLAND...LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FORM ALTHOUGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS MAY
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT PER MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FOR NOW WILL ADD MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR
EXPECTED LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. /29
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
REGION BREAKS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF FURTHER
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AFTER THIS POINT...THERE IS FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. HPC HAS PREFERRED
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH APPEARS TO CONTINUE
THE PLAINS UPPER TROF SLOWLY EASTWARD EVENTUALLY REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE FEATURES ARE LESS UNCERTAIN...BUT
EXPECT A SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST UNTIL
A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHERE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF RIDGING ARE LEAST. FOLLOWING UPON THE BLENDED
APPROACH...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROF WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST MODEST DEEP LAYER LIFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A SEA BREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONSIDERING THE ABOVE
FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST OF THIS AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LINGERING CONVECTION.
POPS FOR THURSDAY ARE MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY
IN THE PATTERN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH
STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER INLAND...CONDUCIVE
FOR ANOTHER SEA BREEZE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE INCREASED
FURTHER AS WELL AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
CONVECTION COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. SO...CONSIDERING THIS WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.
POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ARE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
500 MB TROF WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...SUGGESTING LESS
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CONSIDERING THIS AND THAT OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW AND ENSEMBLE ECMWF POPS ARE LOW AS
WELL...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE ENSEMBLE BLEND HAS A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS THEN BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
STATES. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WITH
SUPPORT FROM OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...MAY
SEE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES. /29
AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CIGS/VISBYS ACROSS THE FA EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A STRATUS
DECK MOVING INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z...WITH CIGS/VISBYS
DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS. SOME LOCAL DROPS TO LIFR
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY NEAR KMOB...ARE LIKELY. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TO RISE QUICKLY. /16
MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEX WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST. /16
FIRE...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES IN THE
FOG WILL BE AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 67 84 68 86 68 / 05 10 05 05 05
PENSACOLA 70 83 70 85 70 / 05 10 05 05 05
DESTIN 70 81 71 83 70 / 05 10 05 05 05
EVERGREEN 64 88 66 91 65 / 20 10 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 63 87 67 90 66 / 10 10 05 05 05
CAMDEN 61 89 66 91 65 / 20 10 05 05 05
CRESTVIEW 63 89 65 91 64 / 10 10 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 182332 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
632 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 IN SOME AREAS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SEWD
INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC REGION...AND IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN TN/NE AL. THE COVERAGE THOUGH HAS BEEN
FAIRLY SCT THUS FAR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH
PATTERN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LIFTING TO THE NE. LATENT HEATING
EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ON A GENERAL DECLINE FROM W TO E AS A WEAK RIDGE PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD.
UNSEASONABLY WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE THE STORY GOING INTO
THE NEW WEEK...AS THE WEAK RIDGE PATTERN OUT W MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AT THE SFC STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
ERN GULF...AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
LOOK REASONABLE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. PRECIP
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM THE W ON SUN...AS DRIER AIR
IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/SW.
THE WX PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE OR UNSETTLED GOING PAST
MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE NRN/MID
PLAINS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
WAVE DEVELOPING INVOF OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO SHIFT EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AREA...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SWD INTO THE WRN GULF COAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
HAVE THIS SFC BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WED/THU AND WEAKENING.
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE XPCTED ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT STARTING LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH PRECIP THEN TAPERING OFF LATE
THU AND INTO FRI AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS TO THE E. ANY REAL COOL DOWN
THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE START OF THE WEEKEND
PERIOD...AS MOD POLAR AIR DIVES SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AT MSL AT 23Z CONTINUED
TO INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP CEILINGS THERE IN
THE HIGHER END OF THE MVFR CATEGORY UNTIL AROUND 01Z. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 08Z...AS
THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT MVFR CEILINGS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. WILL IMPROVE
CEILINGS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AT HSV AT 15Z AND MSL AT 16Z AND KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 182330
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR THIS MORNING HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS FROM
TOTALLY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. YOUR TYPICALLY CALM BEHIND THE
MCS.
THE TRICKY PART TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE BOUNDARY AND CAN WE
GET THE REDEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. RIGHT NOW THE
RIDGE AXIS IS SITTING IN LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
WATCHING THE MOISTURE VIA IR SLIDING AROUND THE APEX. EXPECTED THE
MOISTURE TO BEGIN ITS SOUTHEAST SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THIS DOES PAN OUT LIKE THE
SREF...NAM...GFS THEN WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER MCS LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING.
ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL WITH MCS AND DEVELOPMENT IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW...BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP THEN WE WOULD LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IN THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. WORST SCENARIO WOULD BE IF
WE WIND UP GETTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
THEN THE MCS MOVES THROUGH LIKE LAST NIGHT.
CONTINUED HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN...BUT INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. BY MONDAY THE RIDGE SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP IN THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S. BEYOND MONDAY DID
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EVEN WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO THE WEST OF MGM AND
TOI... HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT FROM ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT ANB... WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
REGARDING MVFR VERSUS IFR CIGS... AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MVFR FOR
MOST SITES... WITH IFR INCLUDED ONLY AT EET BECAUSE IT TENDS TO GO
LOWER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS... AND ANB DUE TO PLENTIFUL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY MORNING.
77/GLEASON
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
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