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000
FXUS64 KBMX 210601
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 210601
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210601
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210601
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210601
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210601
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH DEALING WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS AT 06Z RANGED FROM CLEAR AT TCL...TO IFR AT TOI.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...THERE WAS A DECK OF 3500 FT CLOUDS
WITH PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL MIXED IN. THE FORECAST WENT WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD SPREAD BACK AND BECOME LOWER
NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE
THE BEST THEY ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ONCE THE CLOUDS
RETURN TO BHM AND TCL).

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 210534 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1134 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MVFR
MIST/FOG AROUND DAYBREAK IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE AL
IN THE MORE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. VFR WEATHER OTHERWISE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT NE WINDS BECOMING SE IN
THE AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE PIEDMONT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED LIGHT RAIN AT KHSV SUN EVENING
WITH VFR CIG/VIS VALUES EXPECTED.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210534 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1134 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MVFR
MIST/FOG AROUND DAYBREAK IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE AL
IN THE MORE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. VFR WEATHER OTHERWISE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT NE WINDS BECOMING SE IN
THE AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE PIEDMONT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED LIGHT RAIN AT KHSV SUN EVENING
WITH VFR CIG/VIS VALUES EXPECTED.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 210351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
951 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AS OF 00Z...CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS HAD DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS
BHM AND GAD...AND HAD ALREADY GONE SOUTH OF TCL. STRONGLY SUSPECT
THAT THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AT LEAST
TO EET...ANB AND ASN. BUT AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT...ACCORDING TO
THE MODELS...THAT CLEARING LINE WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY START TO
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ITS DOUBTFUL MGM GETS ANY
CLEARING TONIGHT...AND ALMOST A CERTAINTY CONDITIONS STAY IFR AT
TOI FOR THE DURATION. TRYING TO TIME THE RE-ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AS THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT
DUE TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-85 LATER TONIGHT AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 850MB WILL NOT
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
BY FAR ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THIS WINTER SEASON AND IT
WILL GENERATE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT
..AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TUESDAY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOL
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE NORMALLY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...AND
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  53  43  57  50 /  10  10  20  30  50
ANNISTON    38  55  46  58  51 /  10  20  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  37  56  46  60  54 /  10  10  20  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  34  59  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
CALERA      42  57  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
AUBURN      43  55  47  59  53 /  20  30  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  46  59  48  65  55 /  20  30  40  30  40
TROY        48  57  49  64  56 /  20  40  40  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 210351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
951 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AS OF 00Z...CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS HAD DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS
BHM AND GAD...AND HAD ALREADY GONE SOUTH OF TCL. STRONGLY SUSPECT
THAT THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AT LEAST
TO EET...ANB AND ASN. BUT AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT...ACCORDING TO
THE MODELS...THAT CLEARING LINE WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY START TO
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ITS DOUBTFUL MGM GETS ANY
CLEARING TONIGHT...AND ALMOST A CERTAINTY CONDITIONS STAY IFR AT
TOI FOR THE DURATION. TRYING TO TIME THE RE-ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AS THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT
DUE TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-85 LATER TONIGHT AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 850MB WILL NOT
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
BY FAR ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THIS WINTER SEASON AND IT
WILL GENERATE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT
..AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TUESDAY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOL
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE NORMALLY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...AND
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  53  43  57  50 /  10  10  20  30  50
ANNISTON    38  55  46  58  51 /  10  20  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  37  56  46  60  54 /  10  10  20  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  34  59  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
CALERA      42  57  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
AUBURN      43  55  47  59  53 /  20  30  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  46  59  48  65  55 /  20  30  40  30  40
TROY        48  57  49  64  56 /  20  40  40  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 210351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
951 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COASTAL INTERFACE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A FEW WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH HINTS AT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT
AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY HALTED AND
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSES AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS CLOUD
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LARGE TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEAR AREAS NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS
SOUTHEAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LOWS NEAR 50. THE
PROBLEMATIC AREA WILL BE RIGHT AT THE CLOUD NO CLOUD INTERFACE. IF
THE CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...TEMPS WILL FALL ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN STEADY OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE CLOUDS MOVE VERY LITTLE BEFORE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP/MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THESE TRENDS. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES BUT FOG NONETHELESS FOR DIFFERING REASONS. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED FALL A FEW DEGREES IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NON
MIXED CROSSOVER TEMP. NORTH...COOLER BUT NEAR SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME FOG. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AS OF 00Z...CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS HAD DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS
BHM AND GAD...AND HAD ALREADY GONE SOUTH OF TCL. STRONGLY SUSPECT
THAT THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AT LEAST
TO EET...ANB AND ASN. BUT AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT...ACCORDING TO
THE MODELS...THAT CLEARING LINE WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY START TO
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ITS DOUBTFUL MGM GETS ANY
CLEARING TONIGHT...AND ALMOST A CERTAINTY CONDITIONS STAY IFR AT
TOI FOR THE DURATION. TRYING TO TIME THE RE-ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AS THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT
DUE TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-85 LATER TONIGHT AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 850MB WILL NOT
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
BY FAR ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THIS WINTER SEASON AND IT
WILL GENERATE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT
..AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TUESDAY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOL
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE NORMALLY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...AND
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  53  43  57  50 /  10  10  20  30  50
ANNISTON    38  55  46  58  51 /  10  20  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  37  56  46  60  54 /  10  10  20  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  34  59  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
CALERA      42  57  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
AUBURN      43  55  47  59  53 /  20  30  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  46  59  48  65  55 /  20  30  40  30  40
TROY        48  57  49  64  56 /  20  40  40  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 210330 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN NE AL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG FOR THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210330 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN NE AL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG FOR THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210330 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN NE AL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG FOR THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210330 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN NE AL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG FOR THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210330 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN NE AL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG FOR THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210330 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN NE AL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG FOR THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG BOUT OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALMOST THE PAST WEEK...MOST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GOT A WELCOMED CHANGED AS THE SUN MADE AN
APPEARANCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUTUMN (WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE AT
503 PM SUN AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...PESKY STRATUS HELD FIRM OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE ALABAMA (EASTERN JACKSON/
MARSHALL...AND MOST OF DEKALB COUNTIES STAYING IN THE CLOUDS - DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). AS OF THIS WRITING...THE STRATUS HAS MOVED EAST
OF NE AL...WITH THE STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THE NE AL/NW GA
BORDER.

THE CLOUD DECK NOW EAST OF OUR NE GROUP HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOLING...NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FT PAYNE AND SCOTTSBORO.
THIS OF COURSE REQUIRED UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR
TEMP/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. CLEARED SKIES FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS TO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
HELPED THOSE AREAS RETAIN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WIND SHELTERED AND LARGE BODY OF
WATER AREAS OF NE AL. THOSE UPDATES IN THE AFM/PFM AND GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 210003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
603 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AS THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT
DUE TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-85 LATER TONIGHT AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 850MB WILL NOT
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
BY FAR ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THIS WINTER SEASON AND IT
WILL GENERATE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT
...AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TUESDAY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOL
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE NORMALLY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...AND
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AS OF 00Z...CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS HAD DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS
BHM AND GAD...AND HAD ALREADY GONE SOUTH OF TCL. STRONGLY SUSPECT
THAT THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AT LEAST
TO EET...ANB AND ASN. BUT AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT...ACCORDING TO
THE MODELS...THAT CLEARING LINE WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY START TO
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ITS DOUBTFUL MGM GETS ANY
CLEARING TONIGHT...AND ALMOST A CERTAINTY CONDITIONS STAY IFR AT
TOI FOR THE DURATION. TRYING TO TIME THE RE-ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
603 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AS THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT
DUE TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-85 LATER TONIGHT AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 850MB WILL NOT
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
BY FAR ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THIS WINTER SEASON AND IT
WILL GENERATE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT
...AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TUESDAY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOL
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE NORMALLY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...AND
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AS OF 00Z...CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS HAD DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS
BHM AND GAD...AND HAD ALREADY GONE SOUTH OF TCL. STRONGLY SUSPECT
THAT THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AT LEAST
TO EET...ANB AND ASN. BUT AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT...ACCORDING TO
THE MODELS...THAT CLEARING LINE WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY START TO
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ITS DOUBTFUL MGM GETS ANY
CLEARING TONIGHT...AND ALMOST A CERTAINTY CONDITIONS STAY IFR AT
TOI FOR THE DURATION. TRYING TO TIME THE RE-ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 202333 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 202333 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 202333 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 202333 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AN AREA OF VFR ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NE AL. CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED THIS EVENING. VFR WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD RESULT IN MVFR MIST AROUND DAYBREAK SUN.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GA APPALACHIANS DURING SUN...SPREADING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE. THE LOWER
ALTITUDE CLOUDS THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE PRESENT ACROSS NE AL
RATHER THAN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 202203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WEATHER FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GULF...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WITHIN REMNANT
WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS OF 3 PM CST. LOW
STRATUS HAS OTHERWISE HELD STRONG ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAINED SOCKED IN...WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 50S WHERE PEAKS OF SUN HAVE OCCURRED.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF I-65 THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHWARD
DRIFTING SURFACE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE TRENDED SUNDAY HIGHS TOWARD COOLER
GUIDANCE...WITH READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
LOWER 60S. /21

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. BENEATH THIS PATTERN...A STALLED FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
WHILE A COOL WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDE NORTHEAST ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS
TO ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LESSER CHANCES NORTHWEST OF THESE
AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER
40S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 50S COASTAL ZONES.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO SHARPEN
UP AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS CAUSE SURFACE PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER THE PLAINS ON AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF CAUSING
DEWPOINTS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM 58 TO 63...RESPECTIVELY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INTRODUCING THUNDER LATE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
/10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...VIGOROUS ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WIND PROFILES RESPOND BY INCREASING AND VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AS
BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL...THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND SHEAR AND RESULTANT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...BRINGS CONCERNS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD VERY WELL
ACCOMPANY ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN DISCRETE STORM
CLUSTERS. OTHER HAZARDS IN ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THIS
SCENARIO HAS EDGED CONFIDENCE UPWARD...SUCH THAT FORECASTERS WILL
HEIGHTEN WORDING IN AN AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. AN ORGANIZING...LINEAR CHARACTER TO STORMS IS FORECAST
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THEREAFTER. GIVEN THIS BEING 3 DAYS OUT...MORE DETAILS ON TIMING
WILL COME ON LATER FORECAST SHIFTS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. COULD STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND FAR EASTERN ZONES
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY AFTERNOON.
RAINFREE CONDITIONS FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SMALL POPS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

JUST IN TIME...COLDEST NIGHT IN THE OUTLOOK COMES CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH
LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOWER 40S COAST. CHRISTMAS
DAY HIGHS CLOSE TO 60. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...IFR CEILINGS HAVE HELD STRONG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RISES TO
MVFR TO VFR LEVELS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. A MOIST NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. WE WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM OUT THROUGH 6 PM
CST...WHILE KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER MOST OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 21/32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  63  53  69  62 /  20  10  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   47  61  55  69  62 /  30  20  50  40  50
DESTIN      50  59  57  68  62 /  30  30  60  40  50
EVERGREEN   43  60  48  67  59 /  20  20  50  30  40
WAYNESBORO  40  61  48  66  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN      41  61  47  65  58 /  10  10  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   46  61  49  69  60 /  30  30  50  40  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 202203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WEATHER FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GULF...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WITHIN REMNANT
WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS OF 3 PM CST. LOW
STRATUS HAS OTHERWISE HELD STRONG ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAINED SOCKED IN...WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 50S WHERE PEAKS OF SUN HAVE OCCURRED.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF I-65 THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHWARD
DRIFTING SURFACE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE TRENDED SUNDAY HIGHS TOWARD COOLER
GUIDANCE...WITH READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
LOWER 60S. /21

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. BENEATH THIS PATTERN...A STALLED FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
WHILE A COOL WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDE NORTHEAST ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS
TO ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LESSER CHANCES NORTHWEST OF THESE
AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER
40S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 50S COASTAL ZONES.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO SHARPEN
UP AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS CAUSE SURFACE PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER THE PLAINS ON AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF CAUSING
DEWPOINTS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM 58 TO 63...RESPECTIVELY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INTRODUCING THUNDER LATE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
/10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...VIGOROUS ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WIND PROFILES RESPOND BY INCREASING AND VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AS
BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL...THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND SHEAR AND RESULTANT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...BRINGS CONCERNS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD VERY WELL
ACCOMPANY ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN DISCRETE STORM
CLUSTERS. OTHER HAZARDS IN ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THIS
SCENARIO HAS EDGED CONFIDENCE UPWARD...SUCH THAT FORECASTERS WILL
HEIGHTEN WORDING IN AN AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. AN ORGANIZING...LINEAR CHARACTER TO STORMS IS FORECAST
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THEREAFTER. GIVEN THIS BEING 3 DAYS OUT...MORE DETAILS ON TIMING
WILL COME ON LATER FORECAST SHIFTS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. COULD STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND FAR EASTERN ZONES
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY AFTERNOON.
RAINFREE CONDITIONS FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SMALL POPS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

JUST IN TIME...COLDEST NIGHT IN THE OUTLOOK COMES CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH
LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOWER 40S COAST. CHRISTMAS
DAY HIGHS CLOSE TO 60. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...IFR CEILINGS HAVE HELD STRONG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RISES TO
MVFR TO VFR LEVELS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. A MOIST NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. WE WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM OUT THROUGH 6 PM
CST...WHILE KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER MOST OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 21/32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  63  53  69  62 /  20  10  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   47  61  55  69  62 /  30  20  50  40  50
DESTIN      50  59  57  68  62 /  30  30  60  40  50
EVERGREEN   43  60  48  67  59 /  20  20  50  30  40
WAYNESBORO  40  61  48  66  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN      41  61  47  65  58 /  10  10  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   46  61  49  69  60 /  30  30  50  40  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 202203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WEATHER FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GULF...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WITHIN REMNANT
WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS OF 3 PM CST. LOW
STRATUS HAS OTHERWISE HELD STRONG ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAINED SOCKED IN...WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 50S WHERE PEAKS OF SUN HAVE OCCURRED.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF I-65 THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHWARD
DRIFTING SURFACE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE TRENDED SUNDAY HIGHS TOWARD COOLER
GUIDANCE...WITH READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
LOWER 60S. /21

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. BENEATH THIS PATTERN...A STALLED FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
WHILE A COOL WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDE NORTHEAST ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS
TO ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LESSER CHANCES NORTHWEST OF THESE
AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER
40S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 50S COASTAL ZONES.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO SHARPEN
UP AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS CAUSE SURFACE PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER THE PLAINS ON AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF CAUSING
DEWPOINTS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM 58 TO 63...RESPECTIVELY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INTRODUCING THUNDER LATE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
/10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...VIGOROUS ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WIND PROFILES RESPOND BY INCREASING AND VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AS
BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL...THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND SHEAR AND RESULTANT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...BRINGS CONCERNS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD VERY WELL
ACCOMPANY ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN DISCRETE STORM
CLUSTERS. OTHER HAZARDS IN ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THIS
SCENARIO HAS EDGED CONFIDENCE UPWARD...SUCH THAT FORECASTERS WILL
HEIGHTEN WORDING IN AN AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. AN ORGANIZING...LINEAR CHARACTER TO STORMS IS FORECAST
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THEREAFTER. GIVEN THIS BEING 3 DAYS OUT...MORE DETAILS ON TIMING
WILL COME ON LATER FORECAST SHIFTS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. COULD STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND FAR EASTERN ZONES
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY AFTERNOON.
RAINFREE CONDITIONS FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SMALL POPS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

JUST IN TIME...COLDEST NIGHT IN THE OUTLOOK COMES CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH
LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOWER 40S COAST. CHRISTMAS
DAY HIGHS CLOSE TO 60. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...IFR CEILINGS HAVE HELD STRONG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RISES TO
MVFR TO VFR LEVELS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. A MOIST NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. WE WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM OUT THROUGH 6 PM
CST...WHILE KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER MOST OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 21/32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  63  53  69  62 /  20  10  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   47  61  55  69  62 /  30  20  50  40  50
DESTIN      50  59  57  68  62 /  30  30  60  40  50
EVERGREEN   43  60  48  67  59 /  20  20  50  30  40
WAYNESBORO  40  61  48  66  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN      41  61  47  65  58 /  10  10  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   46  61  49  69  60 /  30  30  50  40  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 202203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WEATHER FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GULF...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WITHIN REMNANT
WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS OF 3 PM CST. LOW
STRATUS HAS OTHERWISE HELD STRONG ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAINED SOCKED IN...WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 50S WHERE PEAKS OF SUN HAVE OCCURRED.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF I-65 THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHWARD
DRIFTING SURFACE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE TRENDED SUNDAY HIGHS TOWARD COOLER
GUIDANCE...WITH READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
LOWER 60S. /21

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. BENEATH THIS PATTERN...A STALLED FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
WHILE A COOL WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDE NORTHEAST ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS
TO ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LESSER CHANCES NORTHWEST OF THESE
AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER
40S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 50S COASTAL ZONES.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO SHARPEN
UP AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS CAUSE SURFACE PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER THE PLAINS ON AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF CAUSING
DEWPOINTS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM 58 TO 63...RESPECTIVELY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INTRODUCING THUNDER LATE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
/10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...VIGOROUS ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WIND PROFILES RESPOND BY INCREASING AND VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AS
BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL...THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND SHEAR AND RESULTANT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...BRINGS CONCERNS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD VERY WELL
ACCOMPANY ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN DISCRETE STORM
CLUSTERS. OTHER HAZARDS IN ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THIS
SCENARIO HAS EDGED CONFIDENCE UPWARD...SUCH THAT FORECASTERS WILL
HEIGHTEN WORDING IN AN AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. AN ORGANIZING...LINEAR CHARACTER TO STORMS IS FORECAST
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THEREAFTER. GIVEN THIS BEING 3 DAYS OUT...MORE DETAILS ON TIMING
WILL COME ON LATER FORECAST SHIFTS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. COULD STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND FAR EASTERN ZONES
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY AFTERNOON.
RAINFREE CONDITIONS FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SMALL POPS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

JUST IN TIME...COLDEST NIGHT IN THE OUTLOOK COMES CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH
LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOWER 40S COAST. CHRISTMAS
DAY HIGHS CLOSE TO 60. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...IFR CEILINGS HAVE HELD STRONG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RISES TO
MVFR TO VFR LEVELS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. A MOIST NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. WE WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM OUT THROUGH 6 PM
CST...WHILE KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER MOST OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 21/32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  63  53  69  62 /  20  10  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   47  61  55  69  62 /  30  20  50  40  50
DESTIN      50  59  57  68  62 /  30  30  60  40  50
EVERGREEN   43  60  48  67  59 /  20  20  50  30  40
WAYNESBORO  40  61  48  66  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN      41  61  47  65  58 /  10  10  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   46  61  49  69  60 /  30  30  50  40  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 202147
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AS THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT
DUE TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-85 LATER TONIGHT AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 850MB WILL NOT
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
BY FAR ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THIS WINTER SEASON AND IT
WILL GENERATE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT
...AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TUESDAY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOL
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE NORMALLY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...AND
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
PREVENTED A LOT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT. THE ONLY TERMINALS THAT
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX OUT WILL BE KTCL, KBHM, AND KEET AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS COULD RISE A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. THE
CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
WELL...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     34  53  43  57  50 /  10  10  20  30  50
ANNISTON    37  55  46  58  51 /  10  20  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  38  56  46  60  54 /  10  10  20  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  37  59  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
CALERA      39  57  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
AUBURN      44  55  47  59  53 /  20  30  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  45  59  48  65  55 /  20  30  40  30  40
TROY        46  57  49  64  56 /  20  40  40  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 202147
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AS THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT
DUE TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-85 LATER TONIGHT AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...AND DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 850MB WILL NOT
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
BY FAR ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THIS WINTER SEASON AND IT
WILL GENERATE A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT
...AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TUESDAY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOL
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE NORMALLY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...AND
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA STATE LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
PREVENTED A LOT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT. THE ONLY TERMINALS THAT
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX OUT WILL BE KTCL, KBHM, AND KEET AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS COULD RISE A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. THE
CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
WELL...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     34  53  43  57  50 /  10  10  20  30  50
ANNISTON    37  55  46  58  51 /  10  20  30  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  38  56  46  60  54 /  10  10  20  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  37  59  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
CALERA      39  57  46  61  53 /  10  10  20  30  40
AUBURN      44  55  47  59  53 /  20  30  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  45  59  48  65  55 /  20  30  40  30  40
TROY        46  57  49  64  56 /  20  40  40  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 201911
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    32  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
SHOALS        30  53  41  58 /   0  10  20  20
VINEMONT      33  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  30  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   33  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
FORT PAYNE    36  52  43  53 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201911
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    32  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
SHOALS        30  53  41  58 /   0  10  20  20
VINEMONT      33  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  30  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   33  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
FORT PAYNE    36  52  43  53 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201911
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    32  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
SHOALS        30  53  41  58 /   0  10  20  20
VINEMONT      33  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  30  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   33  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
FORT PAYNE    36  52  43  53 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201911
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIS IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY OF TWO FORECASTS. ONE IS CLOUDY SE OF
BRIDGEPORT-GRANT-CULLMAN, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL VARY A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS NW AND COLDER SE. TONIGHT, THAT WILL
REVERSE WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN NW AND RATHER STEADY TEMPS SE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LINE WILL HOLD VERY CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT POSITION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS
STREAMFLOW VEERS TO THE E AND SE. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN TX WITHIN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN SRN AL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PATCHY DZ OR -RA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES.

WHOLESALE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AT THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROF PIVOTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ANCHORED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NRN GA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A STEADY
CONVEYER BELT OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TS, WHILE A SECOND AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL BE MORE CO-LOCATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING AS APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIG NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR GENERATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER OMEGA
FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY OVERCOME THIS, BUT A CAD WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE A LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY MENTION A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. INITIAL SHERBE VALUES IN OUR AREA LOOK
MARGINAL ATTM, AND BETTER TO OUR SOUTH.

THE 00Z AND 12Z ECWMF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF FORECASTING
BOMBOGENESIS WITH THIS SFC LOW (00Z RUN WITH A 29MB/24H RATE AND
12Z WITH A 24-25MB/24H RATE). THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FURTHER W (AS IT WAS YESTERDAY), BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE THAT
WILL GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OH
VALLEY AND HERE IN THE TN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
FIELD ARE INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE RH AND DIVQ FIELDS. ANY POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP MAY BE OF SHORT DURATION, BUT HAVE HELD THE MIX OF
SHRA/SHSN ON WEDNESDAY. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP DUE TO
THE SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THIS FAST
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE
GRADIENT WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE MAY NEED
WIND HEADLINES IF THIS VERIFIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    32  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
SHOALS        30  53  41  58 /   0  10  20  20
VINEMONT      33  53  43  56 /   0  10  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  30  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   33  52  42  56 /   0  10  30  20
FORT PAYNE    36  52  43  53 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 201820
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN HAS PUSHED OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE CLOUDS
ARE GOING TO HANG AROUND FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-59. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
THIS MORNING...JUST NORTHWEST OF A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE.
FOR THOSE UNDER THE CLOUD DECK IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
MUCH HOPE FOR SUNSHINE AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS WEAK WITHIN THE
CLOUD LAYER.  LOWERED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
PREVENTED A LOT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT. THE ONLY TERMINALS THAT
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX OUT WILL BE KTCL, KBHM, AND KEET AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS COULD RISE A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. THE
CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
WELL...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  53  44  55  50 /  10  10  40  30  50
ANNISTON    39  55  47  56  51 /  10  20  50  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  47  60  54 /  10  10  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  39  57  47  60  53 /  10  10  30  30  40
CALERA      41  56  47  59  53 /  10  10  40  30  40
AUBURN      46  55  48  59  53 /  10  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  45  58  49  63  55 /  10  30  50  30  40
TROY        46  57  50  65  56 /  20  40  50  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201820
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN HAS PUSHED OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE CLOUDS
ARE GOING TO HANG AROUND FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-59. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
THIS MORNING...JUST NORTHWEST OF A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE.
FOR THOSE UNDER THE CLOUD DECK IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
MUCH HOPE FOR SUNSHINE AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS WEAK WITHIN THE
CLOUD LAYER.  LOWERED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
PREVENTED A LOT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT. THE ONLY TERMINALS THAT
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX OUT WILL BE KTCL, KBHM, AND KEET AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS COULD RISE A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. THE
CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
WELL...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  53  44  55  50 /  10  10  40  30  50
ANNISTON    39  55  47  56  51 /  10  20  50  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  47  60  54 /  10  10  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  39  57  47  60  53 /  10  10  30  30  40
CALERA      41  56  47  59  53 /  10  10  40  30  40
AUBURN      46  55  48  59  53 /  10  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  45  58  49  63  55 /  10  30  50  30  40
TROY        46  57  50  65  56 /  20  40  50  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201820
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN HAS PUSHED OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE CLOUDS
ARE GOING TO HANG AROUND FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-59. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
THIS MORNING...JUST NORTHWEST OF A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE.
FOR THOSE UNDER THE CLOUD DECK IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
MUCH HOPE FOR SUNSHINE AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS WEAK WITHIN THE
CLOUD LAYER.  LOWERED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
PREVENTED A LOT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT. THE ONLY TERMINALS THAT
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX OUT WILL BE KTCL, KBHM, AND KEET AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS COULD RISE A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. THE
CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
WELL...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  53  44  55  50 /  10  10  40  30  50
ANNISTON    39  55  47  56  51 /  10  20  50  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  47  60  54 /  10  10  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  39  57  47  60  53 /  10  10  30  30  40
CALERA      41  56  47  59  53 /  10  10  40  30  40
AUBURN      46  55  48  59  53 /  10  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  45  58  49  63  55 /  10  30  50  30  40
TROY        46  57  50  65  56 /  20  40  50  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201820
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN HAS PUSHED OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE CLOUDS
ARE GOING TO HANG AROUND FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-59. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
THIS MORNING...JUST NORTHWEST OF A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE.
FOR THOSE UNDER THE CLOUD DECK IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
MUCH HOPE FOR SUNSHINE AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS WEAK WITHIN THE
CLOUD LAYER.  LOWERED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
PREVENTED A LOT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT. THE ONLY TERMINALS THAT
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX OUT WILL BE KTCL, KBHM, AND KEET AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS COULD RISE A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. THE
CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
WELL...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  53  44  55  50 /  10  10  40  30  50
ANNISTON    39  55  47  56  51 /  10  20  50  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  47  60  54 /  10  10  40  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  39  57  47  60  53 /  10  10  30  30  40
CALERA      41  56  47  59  53 /  10  10  40  30  40
AUBURN      46  55  48  59  53 /  10  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  45  58  49  63  55 /  10  30  50  30  40
TROY        46  57  50  65  56 /  20  40  50  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 201756
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A THIN LAYER OF
STRATUS BLANKETING DE KALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES IN ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THESE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RUC/NAM RUNS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY AND WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT
THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY THIS EARLY IN THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP 4 TO 5 DEGREES FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES WERE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201756
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A THIN LAYER OF
STRATUS BLANKETING DE KALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES IN ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THESE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RUC/NAM RUNS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY AND WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT
THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY THIS EARLY IN THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP 4 TO 5 DEGREES FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES WERE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201756
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A THIN LAYER OF
STRATUS BLANKETING DE KALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES IN ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THESE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RUC/NAM RUNS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY AND WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT
THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY THIS EARLY IN THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP 4 TO 5 DEGREES FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES WERE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201756
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1156 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A THIN LAYER OF
STRATUS BLANKETING DE KALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES IN ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THESE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RUC/NAM RUNS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY AND WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT
THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY THIS EARLY IN THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP 4 TO 5 DEGREES FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES WERE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NE ALABAMA WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND A SHALLOW NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 5
MILES POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 201721 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1121 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
IS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND TOWARD THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LIGHT
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AS OF 11 AM CST. WE HAVE ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD ACROSS MOST AREAS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE HAVE KEPT POPS GOING GENERALLY ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A MOBILE...EVERGREEN...LUVERNE LINE WHERE WEAK LIFT
MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OTHERWISE STILL
INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA STILL REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH LOW
STRATUS LATE THIS MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S AT BEST
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. WE HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. /21

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE
STRONGEST FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WHILE CONTINUING TO
HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER MOST INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE...AND 4 TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 6
TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...IFR CEILINGS OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE TO MVFR
CATEGORIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MOIST NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A KMOB...K79J LINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

MARINE...HAD TO UPDATE THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY FOR EARLY
MORNING DRAINAGE ALONG THE COAST. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY
ENHANCED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SOUTH OF THE AL..MS AND NWFL COAST. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH  MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REACHING THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH BROAD
SURFACE LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL WEAKENS AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EAST. BOTH THE LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT DRIFTING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD FROM THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SUN. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF TX BY 12Z SUN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS A BIG DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE PROBABLY TO WARM DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES FROM
BOTH THE PHYSICAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THIS REASONING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST AREAS IN NWFL. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GOING A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER FOR MOST AREAS, AS A RESULT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOW ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE FOR TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT/TEXAS
SURFACE LOW.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION INTERACT WITH A PREEXISTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 290-300K LAYER SUNDAY WHICH
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS IN THE 290-300K LAYER...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS PORTION AND THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION...THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION AND CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN
GULF INVERTED SURFACE TROF...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD.  ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.  THE LAND
PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OR
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 850 MB JET INCREASES
TO 35-45 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXITING TO THE
EAST POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.  CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY
NIGHT.  IT LOOKS PROBABLE THAT 0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
0-1 KM HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2...SUFFICIENT TO ADD MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN SMALL POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. /29

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK.
32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20.15Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING
CIGS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  48  63  53  69 /  20  10  30  50  20
PENSACOLA   56  50  63  55  69 /  40  20  50  70  40
DESTIN      57  53  62  57  68 /  50  20  60  70  40
EVERGREEN   54  44  60  49  67 /  30  10  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  54  40  60  47  66 /  10  10  20  30  20
CAMDEN      54  41  60  47  65 /  20  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   56  48  63  52  69 /  40  20  50  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$

21/10





000
FXUS64 KHUN 201640
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A THIN LAYER OF
STRATUS BLANKETING DE KALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES IN ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THESE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RUC/NAM RUNS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY AND WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT
THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY THIS EARLY IN THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP 4 TO 5 DEGREES FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES WERE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 539 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH 00Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES
CLEARING FURTHER. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TERMINALS ON SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201640
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A THIN LAYER OF
STRATUS BLANKETING DE KALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES IN ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THESE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RUC/NAM RUNS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY AND WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT
THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY THIS EARLY IN THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP 4 TO 5 DEGREES FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES WERE NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 539 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH 00Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES
CLEARING FURTHER. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TERMINALS ON SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 201323 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
723 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.MARINE...HAD TO UPDATE THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY FOR EARLY
MORNING DRAINAGE ALONG THE COAST. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY
ENHANCED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SOUTH OF THE AL..MS AND NWFL COAST. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH  MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REACHING THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH BROAD
SURFACE LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL WEAKENS AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EAST. BOTH THE LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT DRIFTING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD FROM THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SUN. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF TX BY 12Z SUN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS A BIG DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE PROBABLY TO WARM DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES FROM
BOTH THE PHYSICAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THIS REASONING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST AREAS IN NWFL. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GOING A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER FOR MOST AREAS, AS A RESULT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOW ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE FOR TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT/TEXAS
SURFACE LOW.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION INTERACT WITH A PREEXISTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 290-300K LAYER SUNDAY WHICH
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS IN THE 290-300K LAYER...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS PORTION AND THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION...THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION AND CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN
GULF INVERTED SURFACE TROF...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD.  ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.  THE LAND
PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OR
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 850 MB JET INCREASES
TO 35-45 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXITING TO THE
EAST POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.  CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY
NIGHT.  IT LOOKS PROBABLE THAT 0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
0-1 KM HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2...SUFFICIENT TO ADD MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN SMALL POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. /29

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK.
32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20.15Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING
CIGS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  48  63  53  69 /  40  10  30  50  20
PENSACOLA   58  50  63  55  69 /  40  20  50  70  40
DESTIN      59  53  62  57  68 /  30  20  60  70  40
EVERGREEN   56  44  60  49  67 /  40  10  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  55  40  60  47  66 /  30  10  20  30  20
CAMDEN      56  41  60  47  65 /  30  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   58  48  63  52  69 /  50  20  50  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 201323 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
723 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.MARINE...HAD TO UPDATE THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY FOR EARLY
MORNING DRAINAGE ALONG THE COAST. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY
ENHANCED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SOUTH OF THE AL..MS AND NWFL COAST. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH  MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REACHING THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH BROAD
SURFACE LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL WEAKENS AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EAST. BOTH THE LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT DRIFTING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD FROM THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SUN. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF TX BY 12Z SUN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS A BIG DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE PROBABLY TO WARM DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES FROM
BOTH THE PHYSICAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THIS REASONING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST AREAS IN NWFL. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GOING A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER FOR MOST AREAS, AS A RESULT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOW ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE FOR TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT/TEXAS
SURFACE LOW.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION INTERACT WITH A PREEXISTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 290-300K LAYER SUNDAY WHICH
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS IN THE 290-300K LAYER...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS PORTION AND THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION...THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION AND CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN
GULF INVERTED SURFACE TROF...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD.  ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.  THE LAND
PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OR
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 850 MB JET INCREASES
TO 35-45 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXITING TO THE
EAST POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.  CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY
NIGHT.  IT LOOKS PROBABLE THAT 0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
0-1 KM HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2...SUFFICIENT TO ADD MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN SMALL POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. /29

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK.
32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20.15Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING
CIGS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  48  63  53  69 /  40  10  30  50  20
PENSACOLA   58  50  63  55  69 /  40  20  50  70  40
DESTIN      59  53  62  57  68 /  30  20  60  70  40
EVERGREEN   56  44  60  49  67 /  40  10  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  55  40  60  47  66 /  30  10  20  30  20
CAMDEN      56  41  60  47  65 /  30  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   58  48  63  52  69 /  50  20  50  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 201323 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
723 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.MARINE...HAD TO UPDATE THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY FOR EARLY
MORNING DRAINAGE ALONG THE COAST. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY
ENHANCED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SOUTH OF THE AL..MS AND NWFL COAST. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH  MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REACHING THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH BROAD
SURFACE LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL WEAKENS AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EAST. BOTH THE LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT DRIFTING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD FROM THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SUN. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF TX BY 12Z SUN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS A BIG DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE PROBABLY TO WARM DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES FROM
BOTH THE PHYSICAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THIS REASONING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST AREAS IN NWFL. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GOING A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER FOR MOST AREAS, AS A RESULT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOW ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE FOR TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT/TEXAS
SURFACE LOW.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION INTERACT WITH A PREEXISTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 290-300K LAYER SUNDAY WHICH
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS IN THE 290-300K LAYER...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS PORTION AND THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION...THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION AND CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN
GULF INVERTED SURFACE TROF...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD.  ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.  THE LAND
PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OR
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 850 MB JET INCREASES
TO 35-45 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXITING TO THE
EAST POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.  CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY
NIGHT.  IT LOOKS PROBABLE THAT 0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
0-1 KM HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2...SUFFICIENT TO ADD MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN SMALL POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. /29

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK.
32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20.15Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING
CIGS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  48  63  53  69 /  40  10  30  50  20
PENSACOLA   58  50  63  55  69 /  40  20  50  70  40
DESTIN      59  53  62  57  68 /  30  20  60  70  40
EVERGREEN   56  44  60  49  67 /  40  10  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  55  40  60  47  66 /  30  10  20  30  20
CAMDEN      56  41  60  47  65 /  30  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   58  48  63  52  69 /  50  20  50  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 201323 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
723 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.MARINE...HAD TO UPDATE THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY FOR EARLY
MORNING DRAINAGE ALONG THE COAST. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY
ENHANCED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SOUTH OF THE AL..MS AND NWFL COAST. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH  MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REACHING THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH BROAD
SURFACE LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL WEAKENS AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EAST. BOTH THE LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT DRIFTING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD FROM THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SUN. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF TX BY 12Z SUN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS A BIG DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE PROBABLY TO WARM DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES FROM
BOTH THE PHYSICAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THIS REASONING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST AREAS IN NWFL. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GOING A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER FOR MOST AREAS, AS A RESULT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOW ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE FOR TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT/TEXAS
SURFACE LOW.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION INTERACT WITH A PREEXISTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 290-300K LAYER SUNDAY WHICH
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS IN THE 290-300K LAYER...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS PORTION AND THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION...THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION AND CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN
GULF INVERTED SURFACE TROF...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD.  ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.  THE LAND
PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OR
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 850 MB JET INCREASES
TO 35-45 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXITING TO THE
EAST POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.  CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY
NIGHT.  IT LOOKS PROBABLE THAT 0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
0-1 KM HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2...SUFFICIENT TO ADD MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN SMALL POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. /29

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK.
32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20.15Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING
CIGS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  48  63  53  69 /  40  10  30  50  20
PENSACOLA   58  50  63  55  69 /  40  20  50  70  40
DESTIN      59  53  62  57  68 /  30  20  60  70  40
EVERGREEN   56  44  60  49  67 /  40  10  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  55  40  60  47  66 /  30  10  20  30  20
CAMDEN      56  41  60  47  65 /  30  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   58  48  63  52  69 /  50  20  50  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201207 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
607 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC
THE RAIN IS QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST IN GA WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SFC LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF JUST OFF THE LA COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF I-85 WITH RAIN COMING TO AN THIS
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW
THE CURRENT SFC LOW IN THE GULF TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA...PRIMARILY IN THE EAST...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS TO A WEDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD DOWN INTO EASTERN AL.

THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS STILL
SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TX LATE MONDAY BUT THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTH VS EAST AS THE
SYSTEM OCCLUDES. WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
THIS WOULD GENERALLY PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND LOW
60 DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING...AND THERE IS ALSO
INDICATIONS OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF RAIN/STORMS THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. TAKING THIS IN CONSIDERATION IT`S UNCERTAIN HAS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF AL WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
ISO/SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH/EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A BIT WINDY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
TEMPS COOL DOWN BRIEFLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT QUICKLY
REBOUND BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR TO OCCASSIONALLY IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED TO
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.  THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS BY MID MORNING AS
INDICATED BY SOME CLEARING OCCURRING TO THE WEST IN MISSISSIPPI...
BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO BECOME VFR BY AFTERNOON...AND
REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD BEGIN
LOWERING BACK TO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AT TOI AND MGM. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW LESS THAN 7 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  36  53  44  55 /  20  10  10  40  30
ANNISTON    52  39  55  47  56 /  20  10  10  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  53  40  57  47  60 /  20  10  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  55  39  57  47  60 /  10  10  10  30  30
CALERA      53  41  56  47  59 /  20  10  10  40  30
AUBURN      54  46  55  48  59 /  50  10  30  60  40
MONTGOMERY  56  45  58  49  63 /  40  10  20  50  30
TROY        56  46  57  50  65 /  60  20  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 201207 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
607 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC
THE RAIN IS QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST IN GA WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SFC LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF JUST OFF THE LA COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF I-85 WITH RAIN COMING TO AN THIS
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW
THE CURRENT SFC LOW IN THE GULF TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA...PRIMARILY IN THE EAST...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS TO A WEDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD DOWN INTO EASTERN AL.

THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS STILL
SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TX LATE MONDAY BUT THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTH VS EAST AS THE
SYSTEM OCCLUDES. WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
THIS WOULD GENERALLY PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND LOW
60 DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING...AND THERE IS ALSO
INDICATIONS OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF RAIN/STORMS THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. TAKING THIS IN CONSIDERATION IT`S UNCERTAIN HAS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF AL WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
ISO/SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH/EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A BIT WINDY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
TEMPS COOL DOWN BRIEFLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT QUICKLY
REBOUND BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR TO OCCASSIONALLY IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED TO
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.  THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS BY MID MORNING AS
INDICATED BY SOME CLEARING OCCURRING TO THE WEST IN MISSISSIPPI...
BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO BECOME VFR BY AFTERNOON...AND
REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD BEGIN
LOWERING BACK TO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AT TOI AND MGM. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW LESS THAN 7 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  36  53  44  55 /  20  10  10  40  30
ANNISTON    52  39  55  47  56 /  20  10  10  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  53  40  57  47  60 /  20  10  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  55  39  57  47  60 /  10  10  10  30  30
CALERA      53  41  56  47  59 /  20  10  10  40  30
AUBURN      54  46  55  48  59 /  50  10  30  60  40
MONTGOMERY  56  45  58  49  63 /  40  10  20  50  30
TROY        56  46  57  50  65 /  60  20  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KBMX 201149
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC
THE RAIN IS QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST IN GA WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SFC LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF JUST OFF THE LA COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF I-85 WITH RAIN COMING TO AN THIS
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW
THE CURRENT SFC LOW IN THE GULF TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA...PRIMARILY IN THE EAST...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THANKS TO A WEDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD DOWN
INTO EASTERN AL.

THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS STILL
SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TX LATE MONDAY BUT THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTH VS EAST AS THE
SYSTEM OCCLUDES. WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
THIS WOULD GENERALLY PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND LOW
60 DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING...AND THERE IS ALSO
INDICATIONS OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF RAIN/STORMS THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. TAKING THIS IN CONSIDERATION IT`S UNCERTAIN HAS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF AL WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
ISO/SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH/EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A BIT WINDY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
TEMPS COOL DOWN BRIEFLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT QUICKLY
REBOUND BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WHILE THERE IS A CERTAINTY THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS...THERE IS STILL A
GREAT BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN. MGM AND TOI ARE THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO SEE CONDITIONS GET DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...
POTENTIALLY LOWER. THE REST...ESPECIALLY BHM AND ANB...WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT FREQUENT UPDATES DUE
TO THE VARIABLE CLOUD CONDITIONS.

THINGS DON`T GET MUCH EASIER...EVEN AFTER THE RAIN PULLS OUT LATER
THIS MORNING. COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES...AND OTHER
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND
LONGER IN THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  36  53  44  55 /  20  10  10  40  30
ANNISTON    52  39  55  47  56 /  20  10  10  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  53  40  57  47  60 /  20  10  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  55  39  57  47  60 /  10  10  10  30  30
CALERA      53  41  56  47  59 /  20  10  10  40  30
AUBURN      54  46  55  48  59 /  50  10  30  60  40
MONTGOMERY  56  45  58  49  63 /  40  10  20  50  30
TROY        56  46  57  50  65 /  60  20  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201149
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC
THE RAIN IS QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST IN GA WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SFC LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF JUST OFF THE LA COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF I-85 WITH RAIN COMING TO AN THIS
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW
THE CURRENT SFC LOW IN THE GULF TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA...PRIMARILY IN THE EAST...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THANKS TO A WEDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD DOWN
INTO EASTERN AL.

THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS STILL
SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TX LATE MONDAY BUT THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTH VS EAST AS THE
SYSTEM OCCLUDES. WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
THIS WOULD GENERALLY PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND LOW
60 DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING...AND THERE IS ALSO
INDICATIONS OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF RAIN/STORMS THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. TAKING THIS IN CONSIDERATION IT`S UNCERTAIN HAS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF AL WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
ISO/SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH/EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A BIT WINDY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
TEMPS COOL DOWN BRIEFLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT QUICKLY
REBOUND BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WHILE THERE IS A CERTAINTY THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS...THERE IS STILL A
GREAT BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN. MGM AND TOI ARE THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO SEE CONDITIONS GET DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...
POTENTIALLY LOWER. THE REST...ESPECIALLY BHM AND ANB...WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT FREQUENT UPDATES DUE
TO THE VARIABLE CLOUD CONDITIONS.

THINGS DON`T GET MUCH EASIER...EVEN AFTER THE RAIN PULLS OUT LATER
THIS MORNING. COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES...AND OTHER
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND
LONGER IN THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  36  53  44  55 /  20  10  10  40  30
ANNISTON    52  39  55  47  56 /  20  10  10  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  53  40  57  47  60 /  20  10  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  55  39  57  47  60 /  10  10  10  30  30
CALERA      53  41  56  47  59 /  20  10  10  40  30
AUBURN      54  46  55  48  59 /  50  10  30  60  40
MONTGOMERY  56  45  58  49  63 /  40  10  20  50  30
TROY        56  46  57  50  65 /  60  20  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 201139 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
539 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 534 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING. A WEAK 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST REASONABLY WELL BY SHORT TERM MODELS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING AND
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW TO RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.

MEANWHILE...ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A
GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA -- BEGINNING LATER TODAY AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS AMPLIFICATION PROCESS WILL
BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE PHASING OF TWO PRONOUNCED VORTICES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT OF THIS PATTERN
TRANSITION FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S BEFORE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS -- ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO -- SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION.

GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS HEIGHTS RISE
WITHIN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND A STRONG VORT
MAX BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL WAVES WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE
RETREATING COLD AIRMASS TO GENERATE THICKENING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN WILL INCREASE -- ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA -- ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SSWLY LOW- LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO 25-35 KNOTS AND ENHANCES LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
WARM ADVECTION.

ATTENTION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE FOCUSED ON AN INTENSE VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED 140-160 KNOT UPPER JET WHICH IS PROGGED TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE EVEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A CYCLONE WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY
TUESDAY EVENING -- AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM SW-TO-
NE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS PWAT VALUES RISE INTO THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PERSISTENT NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LEAD TO SB CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND HAVE
INCREASED THE PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FINAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHES RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. OVERALL STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL JET CERTAINLY POINT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...IMPACTS OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/RAINFALL
MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION -- ESPECIALLY THIS FAR INLAND FROM THE GULF
COAST. REGARDLESS A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON 15-25 KNOT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE DEEPENING CYCLONE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
SURFACE LOW...AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THERMAL PROFILES DROP BELOW FREEZING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE -- MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA...WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW PERHAPS LEADING TO A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST
ALABAMA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BRIEF...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS FAR LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...THE TRADITIONALLY
MORE RELIABLE GEM/ECMWF AT THIS TIME RANGE SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WERE INCREASED DURING THIS PERIOD...AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE INCLUDED IF FORECASTED INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS INCREASE FURTHER.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH 00Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES
CLEARING FURTHER. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TERMINALS ON SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201134
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
534 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING. A WEAK 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST REASONABLY WELL BY SHORT TERM MODELS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING AND
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW TO RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.

MEANWHILE...ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A
GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA -- BEGINNING LATER TODAY AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS AMPLIFICATION PROCESS WILL
BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE PHASING OF TWO PRONOUNCED VORTICES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT OF THIS PATTERN
TRANSITION FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S BEFORE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS -- ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO -- SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION.

GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS HEIGHTS RISE
WITHIN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND A STRONG VORT
MAX BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL WAVES WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE
RETREATING COLD AIRMASS TO GENERATE THICKENING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN WILL INCREASE -- ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA -- ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SSWLY LOW- LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO 25-35 KNOTS AND ENHANCES LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
WARM ADVECTION.

ATTENTION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE FOCUSED ON AN INTENSE VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED 140-160 KNOT UPPER JET WHICH IS PROGGED TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE EVEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A CYCLONE WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY
TUESDAY EVENING -- AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM SW-TO-
NE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS PWAT VALUES RISE INTO THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PERSISTENT NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LEAD TO SB CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND HAVE
INCREASED THE PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FINAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHES RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. OVERALL STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL JET CERTAINLY POINT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...IMPACTS OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/RAINFALL
MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION -- ESPECIALLY THIS FAR INLAND FROM THE GULF
COAST. REGARDLESS A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON 15-25 KNOT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE DEEPENING CYCLONE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
SURFACE LOW...AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THERMAL PROFILES DROP BELOW FREEZING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE -- MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA...WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW PERHAPS LEADING TO A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST
ALABAMA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BRIEF...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS FAR LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...THE TRADITIONALLY
MORE RELIABLE GEM/ECMWF AT THIS TIME RANGE SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WERE INCREASED DURING THIS PERIOD...AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE INCLUDED IF FORECASTED INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS INCREASE FURTHER.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1126 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...TAIL END OF -RA IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY EWD ACROSS
NW/N CNTRL AL...WITH VFR CIGS AROUND 7K FT IN PLACE. EVEN WITH THE
-RA EXITING TO THE E...NOT XPCTING MUCH CHANGE TO THE CIG HEIGHTS
UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HRS SAT...WHEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY
BEGINS TO SCT.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    50  32  52  43 /  10  10  10  20
SHOALS        50  29  52  42 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      50  32  52  43 /  10  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  47  30  50  42 /  10  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   49  33  49  45 /  10  10  10  30
FORT PAYNE    50  33  50  43 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201134
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
534 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING. A WEAK 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST REASONABLY WELL BY SHORT TERM MODELS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING AND
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW TO RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.

MEANWHILE...ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A
GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA -- BEGINNING LATER TODAY AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS AMPLIFICATION PROCESS WILL
BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE PHASING OF TWO PRONOUNCED VORTICES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT OF THIS PATTERN
TRANSITION FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S BEFORE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS -- ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO -- SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION.

GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS HEIGHTS RISE
WITHIN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND A STRONG VORT
MAX BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL WAVES WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE
RETREATING COLD AIRMASS TO GENERATE THICKENING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN WILL INCREASE -- ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA -- ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SSWLY LOW- LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO 25-35 KNOTS AND ENHANCES LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
WARM ADVECTION.

ATTENTION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE FOCUSED ON AN INTENSE VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED 140-160 KNOT UPPER JET WHICH IS PROGGED TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE EVEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A CYCLONE WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY
TUESDAY EVENING -- AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM SW-TO-
NE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS PWAT VALUES RISE INTO THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PERSISTENT NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LEAD TO SB CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND HAVE
INCREASED THE PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FINAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHES RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. OVERALL STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL JET CERTAINLY POINT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...IMPACTS OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/RAINFALL
MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION -- ESPECIALLY THIS FAR INLAND FROM THE GULF
COAST. REGARDLESS A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON 15-25 KNOT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE DEEPENING CYCLONE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
SURFACE LOW...AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THERMAL PROFILES DROP BELOW FREEZING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE -- MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA...WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW PERHAPS LEADING TO A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST
ALABAMA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BRIEF...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS FAR LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...THE TRADITIONALLY
MORE RELIABLE GEM/ECMWF AT THIS TIME RANGE SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WERE INCREASED DURING THIS PERIOD...AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE INCLUDED IF FORECASTED INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS INCREASE FURTHER.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1126 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...TAIL END OF -RA IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY EWD ACROSS
NW/N CNTRL AL...WITH VFR CIGS AROUND 7K FT IN PLACE. EVEN WITH THE
-RA EXITING TO THE E...NOT XPCTING MUCH CHANGE TO THE CIG HEIGHTS
UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HRS SAT...WHEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY
BEGINS TO SCT.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    50  32  52  43 /  10  10  10  20
SHOALS        50  29  52  42 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      50  32  52  43 /  10  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  47  30  50  42 /  10  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   49  33  49  45 /  10  10  10  30
FORT PAYNE    50  33  50  43 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 201010
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH  MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REACHING THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH BROAD
SURFACE LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL WEAKENS AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EAST. BOTH THE LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT DRIFTING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD FROM THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SUN. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF TX BY 12Z SUN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS A BIG DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE PROBABLY TO WARM DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES FROM
BOTH THE PHYSICAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THIS REASONING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST AREAS IN NWFL. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GOING A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER FOR MOST AREAS, AS A RESULT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOW ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE FOR TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT/TEXAS
SURFACE LOW.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION INTERACT WITH A PREEXISTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 290-300K LAYER SUNDAY WHICH
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS IN THE 290-300K LAYER...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS PORTION AND THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION...THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION AND CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN
GULF INVERTED SURFACE TROF...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD.  ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.  THE LAND
PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OR
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 850 MB JET INCREASES
TO 35-45 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXITING TO THE
EAST POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.  CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY
NIGHT.  IT LOOKS PROBABLE THAT 0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
0-1 KM HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2...SUFFICIENT TO ADD MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN SMALL POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20.15Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING
CIGS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  48  63  53  69 /  40  10  30  50  20
PENSACOLA   58  50  63  55  69 /  40  20  50  70  40
DESTIN      59  53  62  57  68 /  30  20  60  70  40
EVERGREEN   56  44  60  49  67 /  40  10  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  55  40  60  47  66 /  30  10  20  30  20
CAMDEN      56  41  60  47  65 /  30  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   58  48  63  52  69 /  50  20  50  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 201010
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH  MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REACHING THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH BROAD
SURFACE LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL WEAKENS AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EAST. BOTH THE LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT DRIFTING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD FROM THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SUN. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF TX BY 12Z SUN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS A BIG DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE PROBABLY TO WARM DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES FROM
BOTH THE PHYSICAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THIS REASONING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST AREAS IN NWFL. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GOING A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER FOR MOST AREAS, AS A RESULT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOW ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE FOR TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT/TEXAS
SURFACE LOW.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION INTERACT WITH A PREEXISTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 290-300K LAYER SUNDAY WHICH
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS IN THE 290-300K LAYER...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS PORTION AND THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION...THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION AND CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN
GULF INVERTED SURFACE TROF...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD.  ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.  THE LAND
PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OR
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 850 MB JET INCREASES
TO 35-45 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXITING TO THE
EAST POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.  CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY
NIGHT.  IT LOOKS PROBABLE THAT 0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
0-1 KM HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2...SUFFICIENT TO ADD MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN SMALL POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20.15Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING
CIGS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  48  63  53  69 /  40  10  30  50  20
PENSACOLA   58  50  63  55  69 /  40  20  50  70  40
DESTIN      59  53  62  57  68 /  30  20  60  70  40
EVERGREEN   56  44  60  49  67 /  40  10  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  55  40  60  47  66 /  30  10  20  30  20
CAMDEN      56  41  60  47  65 /  30  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   58  48  63  52  69 /  50  20  50  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 200553
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...WE FINALLY OVERCAME THE DRY AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. VIRGA...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...MOISTENED THE LAYER OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LIGHT RAIN HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD. MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE HAD MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. A FEW SPOTS SOUTH MAY END
UP WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH BEFORE IT ENDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE MAIN AREA OF UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSH SOUTH AND EAST RATHER
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT THE TREND OF DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ENDING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE ALREADY INTO THE 30S THIS
EVENING...WITH LOWS 33 TO 35 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT A COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW WITH DUAL POL RADAR DATA
INDICATING WET SNOW AS LOW AS 5-6K FT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR RESIDES
BELOW THIS LEVEL AND WET BULB VALUES NEVER GO BELOW 32 DEGREES.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF ALL RAIN UNTIL IT ENDS.
ADDITIONALLY...NO REAL COLD LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT ALL. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE AROUND THE
AREA...BELIEVE THE CLOUDS AND NEAR STEADY TEMPS WILL PREVENT
ANYTHING TOO RESTRICTIVE OR WIDESPREAD.

UPDATED THE HOURLY TRENDS...POPS...AND WEATHER TIMING BUT THE
TREND REMAINS IN INTACT. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WHILE THERE IS A CERTAINTY THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS...THERE IS STILL A
GREAT BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN. MGM AND TOI ARE THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO SEE CONDITIONS GET DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...
POTENTIALLY LOWER. THE REST...ESPECIALLY BHM AND ANB...WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT FREQUENT UPDATES DUE
TO THE VARIABLE CLOUD CONDITIONS.

THINGS DON`T GET MUCH EASIER...EVEN AFTER THE RAIN PULLS OUT LATER
THIS MORNING. COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES...AND OTHER
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND
LONGER IN THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 200553
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...WE FINALLY OVERCAME THE DRY AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. VIRGA...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...MOISTENED THE LAYER OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LIGHT RAIN HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD. MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE HAD MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. A FEW SPOTS SOUTH MAY END
UP WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH BEFORE IT ENDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE MAIN AREA OF UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSH SOUTH AND EAST RATHER
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT THE TREND OF DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ENDING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE ALREADY INTO THE 30S THIS
EVENING...WITH LOWS 33 TO 35 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT A COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW WITH DUAL POL RADAR DATA
INDICATING WET SNOW AS LOW AS 5-6K FT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR RESIDES
BELOW THIS LEVEL AND WET BULB VALUES NEVER GO BELOW 32 DEGREES.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF ALL RAIN UNTIL IT ENDS.
ADDITIONALLY...NO REAL COLD LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT ALL. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE AROUND THE
AREA...BELIEVE THE CLOUDS AND NEAR STEADY TEMPS WILL PREVENT
ANYTHING TOO RESTRICTIVE OR WIDESPREAD.

UPDATED THE HOURLY TRENDS...POPS...AND WEATHER TIMING BUT THE
TREND REMAINS IN INTACT. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WHILE THERE IS A CERTAINTY THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS...THERE IS STILL A
GREAT BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN. MGM AND TOI ARE THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO SEE CONDITIONS GET DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...
POTENTIALLY LOWER. THE REST...ESPECIALLY BHM AND ANB...WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT FREQUENT UPDATES DUE
TO THE VARIABLE CLOUD CONDITIONS.

THINGS DON`T GET MUCH EASIER...EVEN AFTER THE RAIN PULLS OUT LATER
THIS MORNING. COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES...AND OTHER
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND
LONGER IN THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 200553
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...WE FINALLY OVERCAME THE DRY AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. VIRGA...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...MOISTENED THE LAYER OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LIGHT RAIN HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD. MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE HAD MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. A FEW SPOTS SOUTH MAY END
UP WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH BEFORE IT ENDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE MAIN AREA OF UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSH SOUTH AND EAST RATHER
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT THE TREND OF DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ENDING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE ALREADY INTO THE 30S THIS
EVENING...WITH LOWS 33 TO 35 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT A COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW WITH DUAL POL RADAR DATA
INDICATING WET SNOW AS LOW AS 5-6K FT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR RESIDES
BELOW THIS LEVEL AND WET BULB VALUES NEVER GO BELOW 32 DEGREES.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF ALL RAIN UNTIL IT ENDS.
ADDITIONALLY...NO REAL COLD LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT ALL. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE AROUND THE
AREA...BELIEVE THE CLOUDS AND NEAR STEADY TEMPS WILL PREVENT
ANYTHING TOO RESTRICTIVE OR WIDESPREAD.

UPDATED THE HOURLY TRENDS...POPS...AND WEATHER TIMING BUT THE
TREND REMAINS IN INTACT. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WHILE THERE IS A CERTAINTY THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS...THERE IS STILL A
GREAT BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN. MGM AND TOI ARE THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO SEE CONDITIONS GET DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...
POTENTIALLY LOWER. THE REST...ESPECIALLY BHM AND ANB...WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT FREQUENT UPDATES DUE
TO THE VARIABLE CLOUD CONDITIONS.

THINGS DON`T GET MUCH EASIER...EVEN AFTER THE RAIN PULLS OUT LATER
THIS MORNING. COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES...AND OTHER
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND
LONGER IN THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 200553
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...WE FINALLY OVERCAME THE DRY AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. VIRGA...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...MOISTENED THE LAYER OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LIGHT RAIN HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD. MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE HAD MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. A FEW SPOTS SOUTH MAY END
UP WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH BEFORE IT ENDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE MAIN AREA OF UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSH SOUTH AND EAST RATHER
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT THE TREND OF DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ENDING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE ALREADY INTO THE 30S THIS
EVENING...WITH LOWS 33 TO 35 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT A COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW WITH DUAL POL RADAR DATA
INDICATING WET SNOW AS LOW AS 5-6K FT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR RESIDES
BELOW THIS LEVEL AND WET BULB VALUES NEVER GO BELOW 32 DEGREES.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF ALL RAIN UNTIL IT ENDS.
ADDITIONALLY...NO REAL COLD LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT ALL. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE AROUND THE
AREA...BELIEVE THE CLOUDS AND NEAR STEADY TEMPS WILL PREVENT
ANYTHING TOO RESTRICTIVE OR WIDESPREAD.

UPDATED THE HOURLY TRENDS...POPS...AND WEATHER TIMING BUT THE
TREND REMAINS IN INTACT. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WHILE THERE IS A CERTAINTY THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS...THERE IS STILL A
GREAT BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN. MGM AND TOI ARE THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO SEE CONDITIONS GET DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...
POTENTIALLY LOWER. THE REST...ESPECIALLY BHM AND ANB...WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT FREQUENT UPDATES DUE
TO THE VARIABLE CLOUD CONDITIONS.

THINGS DON`T GET MUCH EASIER...EVEN AFTER THE RAIN PULLS OUT LATER
THIS MORNING. COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES...AND OTHER
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND
LONGER IN THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 200541
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1141 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...RAINS HAVE CERTAINLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASED IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT INTERMITTENT LIGHT
RAINS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE LEFT THE RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THE SAME
AS EARLIER ADVERTISED...GENERALLY IN THE 70-80 PERCENT CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR EXPECTED LOWS AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH WIND AND
CLOUD COVER (AS WELL AS CONTINUED RAINFALL) SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY STEADY FROM HERE ON OUT TONIGHT...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS THERE EITHER. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...20.06Z TAF CYCLE...INTERMINTTENT LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VISBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS...RAIN AND LIGHT FOG. THIS OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND TRANSITIONING FROM MVFR AND FINALLY VFR LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST
GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON]...A SECOND GROUP OF
UPPER ENERGY IS APPROACHING THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE FA ATTM.
THIS ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAIN IS NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND...DO FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF DECREASED
COVERAGE...BUT AM HAVING A HARD TIME PINNING IT DOWN DUE TO THE
FLUID NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS IS ADVERTISING THE RAIN ENDING
SOONEST...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF HANGING ON TO THE RAIN LONGER. HAVE
WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN ENDING. FEEL LAST
REMNANTS OF RAIN WILL BE EAST OF I65 BY NOON SATURDAY.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...HAVE WENT WITH A
TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED TEMP RANGE. WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE RAIN
ENDING SOONEST...IT IS...AS EXPECTED THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. HAVE
BUMPED THE GFS NUMBERS DOWN...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS THE NAM AND
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST. /16

[SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAINLY PERSIST BUT SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN
WITH RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.9 TO 1.4 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF I-65 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65.

LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 64 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT
LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2
AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF
SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
19.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LULL IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR...THEN IFR CIGS/VISBYS
WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECOND ROUND OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES. AM EXPECTING THIS ROUND TO LAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EASE TO MVFR AND VFR LEVELS FROM THE WEST.
/16

MARINE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN BEFORE
GETTING GETTING DRAWN NORTH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT BACK OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. EACH
OF THE PRECEDING PIECES OF ENERGY WITH TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. THE FIRST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...THE NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SPEEDS RISING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES. SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  56  48  62  50 /  80  50  20  40  50
PENSACOLA   49  59  51  63  54 /  70  30  20  50  70
DESTIN      51  60  52  63  58 /  60  30  20  60  70
EVERGREEN   45  57  44  59  48 /  90  50  20  40  50
WAYNESBORO  43  56  41  60  43 /  80  40  10  30  30
CAMDEN      44  57  41  58  44 /  90  50  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   47  59  48  63  51 /  70  40  20  50  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 200541
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1141 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...RAINS HAVE CERTAINLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASED IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT INTERMITTENT LIGHT
RAINS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE LEFT THE RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THE SAME
AS EARLIER ADVERTISED...GENERALLY IN THE 70-80 PERCENT CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR EXPECTED LOWS AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH WIND AND
CLOUD COVER (AS WELL AS CONTINUED RAINFALL) SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY STEADY FROM HERE ON OUT TONIGHT...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS THERE EITHER. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...20.06Z TAF CYCLE...INTERMINTTENT LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VISBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS...RAIN AND LIGHT FOG. THIS OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND TRANSITIONING FROM MVFR AND FINALLY VFR LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST
GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON]...A SECOND GROUP OF
UPPER ENERGY IS APPROACHING THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE FA ATTM.
THIS ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAIN IS NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND...DO FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF DECREASED
COVERAGE...BUT AM HAVING A HARD TIME PINNING IT DOWN DUE TO THE
FLUID NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS IS ADVERTISING THE RAIN ENDING
SOONEST...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF HANGING ON TO THE RAIN LONGER. HAVE
WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN ENDING. FEEL LAST
REMNANTS OF RAIN WILL BE EAST OF I65 BY NOON SATURDAY.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...HAVE WENT WITH A
TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED TEMP RANGE. WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE RAIN
ENDING SOONEST...IT IS...AS EXPECTED THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. HAVE
BUMPED THE GFS NUMBERS DOWN...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS THE NAM AND
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST. /16

[SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAINLY PERSIST BUT SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN
WITH RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.9 TO 1.4 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF I-65 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65.

LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 64 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT
LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2
AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF
SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
19.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LULL IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR...THEN IFR CIGS/VISBYS
WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECOND ROUND OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES. AM EXPECTING THIS ROUND TO LAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EASE TO MVFR AND VFR LEVELS FROM THE WEST.
/16

MARINE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN BEFORE
GETTING GETTING DRAWN NORTH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT BACK OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. EACH
OF THE PRECEDING PIECES OF ENERGY WITH TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. THE FIRST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...THE NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SPEEDS RISING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES. SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  56  48  62  50 /  80  50  20  40  50
PENSACOLA   49  59  51  63  54 /  70  30  20  50  70
DESTIN      51  60  52  63  58 /  60  30  20  60  70
EVERGREEN   45  57  44  59  48 /  90  50  20  40  50
WAYNESBORO  43  56  41  60  43 /  80  40  10  30  30
CAMDEN      44  57  41  58  44 /  90  50  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   47  59  48  63  51 /  70  40  20  50  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 200526 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1126 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
LIGHT RAIN AIDED BY A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS LATE FRI EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW SPORADIC REPORTS OF SLEET/UNKNOWN PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN VERY BRIEF. THE
TAIL END OF THIS PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH WRN/MID TN INTO NE
MS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE LOCAL AREA GOING INTO THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE CHC CAT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN.
CURRENT TEMPS IN SOME AREAS HAVE ALSO LOWERED INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF COUPLED WITH DEW PTS AROUND
THE 30F MARK...EARLY MORNING LOWS SAT HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ONGOING PATTERN. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS POINT...WITH PREDOM CLOUDY SKIES XPCTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE
DAYBREAK PERIOD.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...TAIL END OF -RA IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY EWD ACROSS
NW/N CNTRL AL...WITH VFR CIGS AROUND 7K FT IN PLACE. EVEN WITH THE
-RA EXITING TO THE E...NOT XPCTING MUCH CHANGE TO THE CIG HEIGHTS
UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HRS SAT...WHEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY
BEGINS TO SCT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 200445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1045 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...WE FINALLY OVERCAME THE DRY AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. VIRGA...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...MOISTENED THE LAYER OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LIGHT RAIN HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD. MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE HAD MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. A FEW SPOTS SOUTH MAY END
UP WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH BEFORE IT ENDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE MAIN AREA OF UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSH SOUTH AND EAST RATHER
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT THE TREND OF DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ENDING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE ALREADY INTO THE 30S THIS
EVENING...WITH LOWS 33 TO 35 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT A COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW WITH DUAL POL RADAR DATA
INDICATING WET SNOW AS LOW AS 5-6K FT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR RESIDES
BELOW THIS LEVEL AND WET BULB VALUES NEVER GO BELOW 32 DEGREES.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF ALL RAIN UNTIL IT ENDS.
ADDITIONALLY...NO REAL COLD LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT ALL. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE AROUND THE
AREA...BELIEVE THE CLOUDS AND NEAR STEADY TEMPS WILL PREVENT
ANYTHING TOO RESTRICTIVE OR WIDESPREAD.

UPDATED THE HOURLY TRENDS...POPS...AND WEATHER TIMING BUT THE
TREND REMAINS IN INTACT. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...
ALTHOUGH I SUSPECT THAT THE RADAR PRESENTATION LOOKS A BIT WORSE
THAN THE CONDITIONS ON THE GROUND ACTUALLY ARE. BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE AT
MGM AND TOI. THE MORE NORTHERN SITES (NAMELY BHM...EET...ANB...
ASN) MAY NOT ACTUALLY STRAY FROM VFR CONDITIONS. TOUGH CALL THERE.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY
IMPROVE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 241 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. NOT TOO SURE THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF MISSISSIPPI WILL MEASURE WHEN IT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SO I HAVE LOWERED THE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY ONLY BE
AROUND 0.01 TO 0.03. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH BUT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH...MAYBE A QUARTER INCH IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL SET
UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MONDAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IT IS AN INTERESTING SYSTEM MID WEEK AS THE UPPER SYSTEM IS RATHER
DEEP AND COLD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DOWN INTO THE UPPER MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID
WEST AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS AT OUR LOCATIONS
REMAIN WESTERLY (OR VERY BRIEFLY NORTHWESTERLY) EVEN AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS REMAINING TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY WEATHER. SO ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP FROM THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN. THE NEAR SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS PRETTY LIMITED AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY CHRISTMAS...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT OTHER THAN JUST BEING CLOUDY AND
RAINY.

TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  53  35  53  43 /  90  20  10  10  40
ANNISTON    39  55  40  55  45 / 100  20  10  10  50
BIRMINGHAM  40  55  41  57  46 / 100  20  10  10  40
TUSCALOOSA  41  56  39  57  46 /  90  20  10  10  30
CALERA      41  55  41  56  46 / 100  20  10  10  40
AUBURN      41  55  43  55  48 / 100  50  10  30  60
MONTGOMERY  43  57  44  58  48 / 100  40  10  30  50
TROY        44  56  45  57  49 / 100  70  20  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 200445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1045 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...WE FINALLY OVERCAME THE DRY AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. VIRGA...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...MOISTENED THE LAYER OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LIGHT RAIN HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD. MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE HAD MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. A FEW SPOTS SOUTH MAY END
UP WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH BEFORE IT ENDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE MAIN AREA OF UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSH SOUTH AND EAST RATHER
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT THE TREND OF DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ENDING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE ALREADY INTO THE 30S THIS
EVENING...WITH LOWS 33 TO 35 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT A COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW WITH DUAL POL RADAR DATA
INDICATING WET SNOW AS LOW AS 5-6K FT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR RESIDES
BELOW THIS LEVEL AND WET BULB VALUES NEVER GO BELOW 32 DEGREES.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF ALL RAIN UNTIL IT ENDS.
ADDITIONALLY...NO REAL COLD LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT ALL. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE AROUND THE
AREA...BELIEVE THE CLOUDS AND NEAR STEADY TEMPS WILL PREVENT
ANYTHING TOO RESTRICTIVE OR WIDESPREAD.

UPDATED THE HOURLY TRENDS...POPS...AND WEATHER TIMING BUT THE
TREND REMAINS IN INTACT. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...
ALTHOUGH I SUSPECT THAT THE RADAR PRESENTATION LOOKS A BIT WORSE
THAN THE CONDITIONS ON THE GROUND ACTUALLY ARE. BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE AT
MGM AND TOI. THE MORE NORTHERN SITES (NAMELY BHM...EET...ANB...
ASN) MAY NOT ACTUALLY STRAY FROM VFR CONDITIONS. TOUGH CALL THERE.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY
IMPROVE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 241 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. NOT TOO SURE THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF MISSISSIPPI WILL MEASURE WHEN IT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SO I HAVE LOWERED THE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY ONLY BE
AROUND 0.01 TO 0.03. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH BUT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH...MAYBE A QUARTER INCH IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL SET
UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MONDAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IT IS AN INTERESTING SYSTEM MID WEEK AS THE UPPER SYSTEM IS RATHER
DEEP AND COLD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DOWN INTO THE UPPER MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID
WEST AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS AT OUR LOCATIONS
REMAIN WESTERLY (OR VERY BRIEFLY NORTHWESTERLY) EVEN AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS REMAINING TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY WEATHER. SO ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP FROM THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN. THE NEAR SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS PRETTY LIMITED AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY CHRISTMAS...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT OTHER THAN JUST BEING CLOUDY AND
RAINY.

TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  53  35  53  43 /  90  20  10  10  40
ANNISTON    39  55  40  55  45 / 100  20  10  10  50
BIRMINGHAM  40  55  41  57  46 / 100  20  10  10  40
TUSCALOOSA  41  56  39  57  46 /  90  20  10  10  30
CALERA      41  55  41  56  46 / 100  20  10  10  40
AUBURN      41  55  43  55  48 / 100  50  10  30  60
MONTGOMERY  43  57  44  58  48 / 100  40  10  30  50
TROY        44  56  45  57  49 / 100  70  20  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 200340 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN CHANCES LOWERED OVERNIGHT...MORNING LOWS SAT ALSO LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN AIDED BY A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS LATE FRI EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW SPORADIC REPORTS OF SLEET/UNKNOWN PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN VERY BRIEF. THE
TAIL END OF THIS PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH WRN/MID TN INTO NE
MS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE LOCAL AREA GOING INTO THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE CHC CAT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN.
CURRENT TEMPS IN SOME AREAS HAVE ALSO LOWERED INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF COUPLED WITH DEW PTS AROUND
THE 30F MARK...EARLY MORNING LOWS SAT HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ONGOING PATTERN. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS POINT...WITH PREDOM CLOUDY SKIES XPCTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE
DAYBREAK PERIOD.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS IN PLACE...AND -RA
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT BOTH MAIN
TERMINALS FOR NOW. CIG HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO LOWER CLOSER TO 4-5KT FT
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH -RA CONTINUING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CAT NEAR THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME...IN/AROUND SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RA. OVERALL CONDS/CIGS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE/LIFT HEADING INTO
THE MORNING HRS SAT...AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES E OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCOMING TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER JET OF 100-120KT. THIS JET WILL SLICE ACROSS MS/AL/NRN
GA THRU SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED BEST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
STEADY PCPN. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONSET OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED BY AN AREA
OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SINKING AIR THAT HAS ERODED MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS WHICH WERE IN PLACE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL AWAIT
FURTHER COORDINATION, BUT SHOULD BE GOING WITH A LIKELY POP-LOW QPF
SCENARIO (HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). ANY CLEARING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN SRN AL AND
MUCH OF GA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS TEMP
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE WITH RAPID AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUAL-CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GULF SOUTH ARE INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.
TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A "BOMB" WITH
27MB/24H FROM 06Z/24-06Z/25 FROM AL INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT WITH THE GFS WHICH DOES NOT
FOCUS ON A SOUTHERN CYCLONE INTO THE MIX. IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT LOW-END
CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE-TUE EVENING. SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHC OF T ALONG WITH A LIKELY POP OF SHRA. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WILL NOT
INCLUDE FLURRIES JUST YET ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THE DISPERSED MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 200340 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN CHANCES LOWERED OVERNIGHT...MORNING LOWS SAT ALSO LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN AIDED BY A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS LATE FRI EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW SPORADIC REPORTS OF SLEET/UNKNOWN PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN VERY BRIEF. THE
TAIL END OF THIS PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH WRN/MID TN INTO NE
MS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE LOCAL AREA GOING INTO THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE CHC CAT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN.
CURRENT TEMPS IN SOME AREAS HAVE ALSO LOWERED INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF COUPLED WITH DEW PTS AROUND
THE 30F MARK...EARLY MORNING LOWS SAT HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ONGOING PATTERN. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS POINT...WITH PREDOM CLOUDY SKIES XPCTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE
DAYBREAK PERIOD.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS IN PLACE...AND -RA
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT BOTH MAIN
TERMINALS FOR NOW. CIG HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO LOWER CLOSER TO 4-5KT FT
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH -RA CONTINUING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CAT NEAR THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME...IN/AROUND SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RA. OVERALL CONDS/CIGS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE/LIFT HEADING INTO
THE MORNING HRS SAT...AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES E OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCOMING TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER JET OF 100-120KT. THIS JET WILL SLICE ACROSS MS/AL/NRN
GA THRU SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED BEST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
STEADY PCPN. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONSET OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED BY AN AREA
OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SINKING AIR THAT HAS ERODED MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS WHICH WERE IN PLACE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL AWAIT
FURTHER COORDINATION, BUT SHOULD BE GOING WITH A LIKELY POP-LOW QPF
SCENARIO (HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). ANY CLEARING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN SRN AL AND
MUCH OF GA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS TEMP
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE WITH RAPID AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUAL-CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GULF SOUTH ARE INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.
TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A "BOMB" WITH
27MB/24H FROM 06Z/24-06Z/25 FROM AL INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT WITH THE GFS WHICH DOES NOT
FOCUS ON A SOUTHERN CYCLONE INTO THE MIX. IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT LOW-END
CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE-TUE EVENING. SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHC OF T ALONG WITH A LIKELY POP OF SHRA. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WILL NOT
INCLUDE FLURRIES JUST YET ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THE DISPERSED MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 200340 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN CHANCES LOWERED OVERNIGHT...MORNING LOWS SAT ALSO LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN AIDED BY A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS LATE FRI EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW SPORADIC REPORTS OF SLEET/UNKNOWN PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN VERY BRIEF. THE
TAIL END OF THIS PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH WRN/MID TN INTO NE
MS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE LOCAL AREA GOING INTO THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE CHC CAT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN.
CURRENT TEMPS IN SOME AREAS HAVE ALSO LOWERED INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF COUPLED WITH DEW PTS AROUND
THE 30F MARK...EARLY MORNING LOWS SAT HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ONGOING PATTERN. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS POINT...WITH PREDOM CLOUDY SKIES XPCTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE
DAYBREAK PERIOD.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS IN PLACE...AND -RA
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT BOTH MAIN
TERMINALS FOR NOW. CIG HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO LOWER CLOSER TO 4-5KT FT
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH -RA CONTINUING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CAT NEAR THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME...IN/AROUND SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RA. OVERALL CONDS/CIGS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE/LIFT HEADING INTO
THE MORNING HRS SAT...AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES E OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCOMING TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER JET OF 100-120KT. THIS JET WILL SLICE ACROSS MS/AL/NRN
GA THRU SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED BEST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
STEADY PCPN. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONSET OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED BY AN AREA
OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SINKING AIR THAT HAS ERODED MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS WHICH WERE IN PLACE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL AWAIT
FURTHER COORDINATION, BUT SHOULD BE GOING WITH A LIKELY POP-LOW QPF
SCENARIO (HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). ANY CLEARING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN SRN AL AND
MUCH OF GA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS TEMP
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE WITH RAPID AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUAL-CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GULF SOUTH ARE INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.
TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A "BOMB" WITH
27MB/24H FROM 06Z/24-06Z/25 FROM AL INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT WITH THE GFS WHICH DOES NOT
FOCUS ON A SOUTHERN CYCLONE INTO THE MIX. IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT LOW-END
CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE-TUE EVENING. SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHC OF T ALONG WITH A LIKELY POP OF SHRA. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WILL NOT
INCLUDE FLURRIES JUST YET ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THE DISPERSED MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 200026
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
626 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. NOT TOO SURE THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF MISSISSIPPI WILL MEASURE WHEN IT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SO I HAVE LOWERED THE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY ONLY BE
AROUND 0.01 TO 0.03. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH BUT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH...MAYBE A QUARTER INCH IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL SET
UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MONDAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IT IS AN INTERESTING SYSTEM MID WEEK AS THE UPPER SYSTEM IS RATHER
DEEP AND COLD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DOWN INTO THE UPPER MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID
WEST AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS AT OUR LOCATIONS
REMAIN WESTERLY (OR VERY BRIEFLY NORTHWESTERLY) EVEN AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS REMAINING TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY WEATHER. SO ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP FROM THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN. THE NEAR SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS PRETTY LIMITED AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY CHRISTMAS...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT OTHER THAN JUST BEING CLOUDY AND
RAINY.

TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...
ALTHOUGH I SUSPECT THAT THE RADAR PRESENTATION LOOKS A BIT WORSE
THAN THE CONDITIONS ON THE GROUND ACTUALLY ARE. BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE AT
MGM AND TOI. THE MORE NORTHERN SITES (NAMELY BHM...EET...ANB...
ASN) MAY NOT ACTUALLY STRAY FROM VFR CONDITIONS. TOUGH CALL THERE.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY
IMPROVE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 200026
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
626 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. NOT TOO SURE THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF MISSISSIPPI WILL MEASURE WHEN IT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SO I HAVE LOWERED THE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY ONLY BE
AROUND 0.01 TO 0.03. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH BUT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH...MAYBE A QUARTER INCH IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL SET
UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MONDAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IT IS AN INTERESTING SYSTEM MID WEEK AS THE UPPER SYSTEM IS RATHER
DEEP AND COLD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DOWN INTO THE UPPER MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID
WEST AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS AT OUR LOCATIONS
REMAIN WESTERLY (OR VERY BRIEFLY NORTHWESTERLY) EVEN AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS REMAINING TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY WEATHER. SO ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP FROM THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN. THE NEAR SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS PRETTY LIMITED AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY CHRISTMAS...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT OTHER THAN JUST BEING CLOUDY AND
RAINY.

TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...
ALTHOUGH I SUSPECT THAT THE RADAR PRESENTATION LOOKS A BIT WORSE
THAN THE CONDITIONS ON THE GROUND ACTUALLY ARE. BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE AT
MGM AND TOI. THE MORE NORTHERN SITES (NAMELY BHM...EET...ANB...
ASN) MAY NOT ACTUALLY STRAY FROM VFR CONDITIONS. TOUGH CALL THERE.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY
IMPROVE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 192340 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCOMING TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER JET OF 100-120KT. THIS JET WILL SLICE ACROSS MS/AL/NRN
GA THRU SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED BEST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
STEADY PCPN. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONSET OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED BY AN AREA
OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SINKING AIR THAT HAS ERODED MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS WHICH WERE IN PLACE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL AWAIT
FURTHER COORDINATION, BUT SHOULD BE GOING WITH A LIKELY POP-LOW QPF
SCENARIO (HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). ANY CLEARING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN SRN AL AND
MUCH OF GA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS TEMP
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE WITH RAPID AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUAL-CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GULF SOUTH ARE INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.
TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A "BOMB" WITH
27MB/24H FROM 06Z/24-06Z/25 FROM AL INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT WITH THE GFS WHICH DOES NOT
FOCUS ON A SOUTHERN CYCLONE INTO THE MIX. IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT LOW-END
CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE-TUE EVENING. SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHC OF T ALONG WITH A LIKELY POP OF SHRA. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WILL NOT
INCLUDE FLURRIES JUST YET ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THE DISPERSED MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS IN PLACE...AND -RA
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT BOTH MAIN
TERMINALS FOR NOW. CIG HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO LOWER CLOSER TO 4-5KT FT
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH -RA CONTINUING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CAT NEAR THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME...IN/AROUND SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RA. OVERALL CONDS/CIGS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE/LIFT HEADING INTO
THE MORNING HRS SAT...AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES E OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 192340 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCOMING TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER JET OF 100-120KT. THIS JET WILL SLICE ACROSS MS/AL/NRN
GA THRU SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED BEST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
STEADY PCPN. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONSET OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED BY AN AREA
OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SINKING AIR THAT HAS ERODED MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS WHICH WERE IN PLACE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL AWAIT
FURTHER COORDINATION, BUT SHOULD BE GOING WITH A LIKELY POP-LOW QPF
SCENARIO (HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). ANY CLEARING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN SRN AL AND
MUCH OF GA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS TEMP
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE WITH RAPID AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUAL-CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GULF SOUTH ARE INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.
TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A "BOMB" WITH
27MB/24H FROM 06Z/24-06Z/25 FROM AL INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT WITH THE GFS WHICH DOES NOT
FOCUS ON A SOUTHERN CYCLONE INTO THE MIX. IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT LOW-END
CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE-TUE EVENING. SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHC OF T ALONG WITH A LIKELY POP OF SHRA. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WILL NOT
INCLUDE FLURRIES JUST YET ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THE DISPERSED MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS IN PLACE...AND -RA
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT BOTH MAIN
TERMINALS FOR NOW. CIG HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO LOWER CLOSER TO 4-5KT FT
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH -RA CONTINUING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CAT NEAR THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME...IN/AROUND SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RA. OVERALL CONDS/CIGS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE/LIFT HEADING INTO
THE MORNING HRS SAT...AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES E OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 192207
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON]...A SECOND GROUP OF
UPPER ENERGY IS APPROACHING THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE FA ATTM.
THIS ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAIN IS NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND...DO FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF DECREASED
COVERAGE...BUT AM HAVING A HARD TIME PINNING IT DOWN DUE TO THE
FLUID NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS IS ADVERTISING THE RAIN ENDING
SOONEST...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF HANGING ON TO THE RAIN LONGER. HAVE
WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN ENDING. FEEL LAST
REMNANTS OF RAIN WILL BE EAST OF I65 BY NOON SATURDAY.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...HAVE WENT WITH A
TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED TEMP RANGE. WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE RAIN
ENDING SOONEST...IT IS...AS EXPECTED THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. HAVE
BUMPED THE GFS NUMBERS DOWN...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS THE NAM AND
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST. /16

[SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAINLY PERSIST BUT SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN
WITH RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.9 TO 1.4 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF I-65 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65.

LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 64 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT
LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2
AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF
SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
19.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LULL IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR...THEN IFR CIGS/VISBYS
WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECOND ROUND OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES. AM EXPECTING THIS ROUND TO LAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EASE TO MVFR AND VFR LEVELS FROM THE WEST.
/16

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN BEFORE
GETTING GETTING DRAWN NORTH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT BACK OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. EACH
OF THE PRECEDING PIECES OF ENERGY WITH TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. THE FIRST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...THE NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SPEEDS RISING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES. SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  56  48  62  50 /  80  50  20  40  50
PENSACOLA   49  59  51  63  54 /  70  30  20  50  70
DESTIN      51  60  52  63  58 /  60  30  20  60  70
EVERGREEN   45  57  44  59  48 /  90  50  20  40  50
WAYNESBORO  43  56  41  60  43 /  80  40  10  30  30
CAMDEN      44  57  41  58  44 /  90  50  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   47  59  48  63  51 /  70  40  20  50  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 192207
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON]...A SECOND GROUP OF
UPPER ENERGY IS APPROACHING THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE FA ATTM.
THIS ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAIN IS NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND...DO FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF DECREASED
COVERAGE...BUT AM HAVING A HARD TIME PINNING IT DOWN DUE TO THE
FLUID NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS IS ADVERTISING THE RAIN ENDING
SOONEST...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF HANGING ON TO THE RAIN LONGER. HAVE
WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN ENDING. FEEL LAST
REMNANTS OF RAIN WILL BE EAST OF I65 BY NOON SATURDAY.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...HAVE WENT WITH A
TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED TEMP RANGE. WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE RAIN
ENDING SOONEST...IT IS...AS EXPECTED THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. HAVE
BUMPED THE GFS NUMBERS DOWN...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS THE NAM AND
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST. /16

[SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAINLY PERSIST BUT SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN
WITH RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.9 TO 1.4 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF I-65 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65.

LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 64 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT
LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2
AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF
SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
19.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LULL IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR...THEN IFR CIGS/VISBYS
WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECOND ROUND OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES. AM EXPECTING THIS ROUND TO LAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EASE TO MVFR AND VFR LEVELS FROM THE WEST.
/16

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN BEFORE
GETTING GETTING DRAWN NORTH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT BACK OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. EACH
OF THE PRECEDING PIECES OF ENERGY WITH TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. THE FIRST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...THE NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SPEEDS RISING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES. SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  56  48  62  50 /  80  50  20  40  50
PENSACOLA   49  59  51  63  54 /  70  30  20  50  70
DESTIN      51  60  52  63  58 /  60  30  20  60  70
EVERGREEN   45  57  44  59  48 /  90  50  20  40  50
WAYNESBORO  43  56  41  60  43 /  80  40  10  30  30
CAMDEN      44  57  41  58  44 /  90  50  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   47  59  48  63  51 /  70  40  20  50  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 192041
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
241 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. NOT TOO SURE THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF MISSISSIPPI WILL MEASURE WHEN IT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SO I HAVE LOWERED THE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY ONLY BE
AROUND 0.01 TO 0.03. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH BUT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH...MAYBE A QUARTER INCH IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL SET
UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MONDAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IT IS AN INTERESTING SYSTEM MID WEEK AS THE UPPER SYSTEM IS RATHER
DEEP AND COLD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DOWN INTO THE UPPER MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID
WEST AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS AT OUR LOCATIONS
REMAIN WESTERLY (OR VERY BRIEFLY NORTHWESTERLY) EVEN AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS REMAINING TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY WEATHER. SO ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP FROM THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN. THE NEAR SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS PRETTY LIMITED AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY CHRISTMAS...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT OTHER THAN JUST BEING CLOUDY AND
RAINY.

TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS AND RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND INTO KMGM
AND KTOI BY 00Z. CIGS WILL LOWER AT KMGM AND KTOI OVERNIGHT AND
LIKELY REACH THE 1000-1500 FOOT RANGE. THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
CIGS COULD FALL BELOW 1000 FEET BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS
FORECAST. RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND KEPT VSBYS
AOA 3 MILES...WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS AT KMGM AND KTOI. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE EXITING CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  53  35  53  43 /  70  20  10  10  40
ANNISTON    38  55  40  55  45 /  90  20  10  10  50
BIRMINGHAM  38  55  41  57  46 /  80  20  10  10  40
TUSCALOOSA  38  56  39  57  46 /  80  20  10  10  30
CALERA      40  55  41  56  46 /  90  20  10  10  40
AUBURN      42  55  43  55  48 /  90  50  10  30  60
MONTGOMERY  42  57  44  58  48 /  90  40  10  30  50
TROY        43  56  45  57  49 /  90  70  20  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 192041
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
241 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. NOT TOO SURE THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF MISSISSIPPI WILL MEASURE WHEN IT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SO I HAVE LOWERED THE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY ONLY BE
AROUND 0.01 TO 0.03. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH BUT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH...MAYBE A QUARTER INCH IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL SET
UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MONDAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IT IS AN INTERESTING SYSTEM MID WEEK AS THE UPPER SYSTEM IS RATHER
DEEP AND COLD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DOWN INTO THE UPPER MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID
WEST AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS AT OUR LOCATIONS
REMAIN WESTERLY (OR VERY BRIEFLY NORTHWESTERLY) EVEN AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS REMAINING TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY WEATHER. SO ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP FROM THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN. THE NEAR SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS PRETTY LIMITED AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY CHRISTMAS...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT OTHER THAN JUST BEING CLOUDY AND
RAINY.

TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS AND RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND INTO KMGM
AND KTOI BY 00Z. CIGS WILL LOWER AT KMGM AND KTOI OVERNIGHT AND
LIKELY REACH THE 1000-1500 FOOT RANGE. THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
CIGS COULD FALL BELOW 1000 FEET BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS
FORECAST. RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND KEPT VSBYS
AOA 3 MILES...WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS AT KMGM AND KTOI. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE EXITING CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  53  35  53  43 /  70  20  10  10  40
ANNISTON    38  55  40  55  45 /  90  20  10  10  50
BIRMINGHAM  38  55  41  57  46 /  80  20  10  10  40
TUSCALOOSA  38  56  39  57  46 /  80  20  10  10  30
CALERA      40  55  41  56  46 /  90  20  10  10  40
AUBURN      42  55  43  55  48 /  90  50  10  30  60
MONTGOMERY  42  57  44  58  48 /  90  40  10  30  50
TROY        43  56  45  57  49 /  90  70  20  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 191927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCOMING TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER JET OF 100-120KT. THIS JET WILL SLICE ACROSS MS/AL/NRN
GA THRU SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED BEST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
STEADY PCPN. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONSET OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED BY AN AREA
OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SINKING AIR THAT HAS ERODED MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS WHICH WERE IN PLACE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL AWAIT
FURTHER COORDINATION, BUT SHOULD BE GOING WITH A LIKELY POP-LOW QPF
SCENARIO (HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). ANY CLEARING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN SRN AL AND
MUCH OF GA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS TEMP
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE WITH RAPID AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUAL-CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GULF SOUTH ARE INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.
TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A "BOMB" WITH
27MB/24H FROM 06Z/24-06Z/25 FROM AL INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT WITH THE GFS WHICH DOES NOT
FOCUS ON A SOUTHERN CYCLONE INTO THE MIX. IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT LOW-END
CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE-TUE EVENING. SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHC OF T ALONG WITH A LIKELY POP OF SHRA. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WILL NOT
INCLUDE FLURRIES JUST YET ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THE DISPERSED MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMSL TERMINAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE KHSV TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...CIGS
LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    36  51  33  52 /  70  10   0  20
SHOALS        36  50  31  55 /  70  10   0  10
VINEMONT      36  50  33  52 /  80  10   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  34  47  32  52 /  70  10   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   38  53  33  51 /  80  20   0  20
FORT PAYNE    38  54  34  51 /  80  20   0  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCOMING TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER JET OF 100-120KT. THIS JET WILL SLICE ACROSS MS/AL/NRN
GA THRU SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED BEST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
STEADY PCPN. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONSET OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED BY AN AREA
OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SINKING AIR THAT HAS ERODED MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS WHICH WERE IN PLACE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL AWAIT
FURTHER COORDINATION, BUT SHOULD BE GOING WITH A LIKELY POP-LOW QPF
SCENARIO (HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). ANY CLEARING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN SRN AL AND
MUCH OF GA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS TEMP
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE WITH RAPID AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUAL-CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GULF SOUTH ARE INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.
TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A "BOMB" WITH
27MB/24H FROM 06Z/24-06Z/25 FROM AL INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT WITH THE GFS WHICH DOES NOT
FOCUS ON A SOUTHERN CYCLONE INTO THE MIX. IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT LOW-END
CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE-TUE EVENING. SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHC OF T ALONG WITH A LIKELY POP OF SHRA. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WILL NOT
INCLUDE FLURRIES JUST YET ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THE DISPERSED MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMSL TERMINAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE KHSV TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...CIGS
LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    36  51  33  52 /  70  10   0  20
SHOALS        36  50  31  55 /  70  10   0  10
VINEMONT      36  50  33  52 /  80  10   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  34  47  32  52 /  70  10   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   38  53  33  51 /  80  20   0  20
FORT PAYNE    38  54  34  51 /  80  20   0  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCOMING TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER JET OF 100-120KT. THIS JET WILL SLICE ACROSS MS/AL/NRN
GA THRU SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED BEST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
STEADY PCPN. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONSET OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED BY AN AREA
OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SINKING AIR THAT HAS ERODED MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS WHICH WERE IN PLACE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL AWAIT
FURTHER COORDINATION, BUT SHOULD BE GOING WITH A LIKELY POP-LOW QPF
SCENARIO (HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). ANY CLEARING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN SRN AL AND
MUCH OF GA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS TEMP
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE WITH RAPID AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUAL-CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GULF SOUTH ARE INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.
TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A "BOMB" WITH
27MB/24H FROM 06Z/24-06Z/25 FROM AL INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT WITH THE GFS WHICH DOES NOT
FOCUS ON A SOUTHERN CYCLONE INTO THE MIX. IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT LOW-END
CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE-TUE EVENING. SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHC OF T ALONG WITH A LIKELY POP OF SHRA. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WILL NOT
INCLUDE FLURRIES JUST YET ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THE DISPERSED MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMSL TERMINAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE KHSV TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...CIGS
LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    36  51  33  52 /  70  10   0  20
SHOALS        36  50  31  55 /  70  10   0  10
VINEMONT      36  50  33  52 /  80  10   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  34  47  32  52 /  70  10   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   38  53  33  51 /  80  20   0  20
FORT PAYNE    38  54  34  51 /  80  20   0  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCOMING TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER JET OF 100-120KT. THIS JET WILL SLICE ACROSS MS/AL/NRN
GA THRU SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED BEST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
STEADY PCPN. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONSET OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED BY AN AREA
OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SINKING AIR THAT HAS ERODED MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS WHICH WERE IN PLACE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL AWAIT
FURTHER COORDINATION, BUT SHOULD BE GOING WITH A LIKELY POP-LOW QPF
SCENARIO (HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). ANY CLEARING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN SRN AL AND
MUCH OF GA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS TEMP
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE WITH RAPID AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUAL-CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GULF SOUTH ARE INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.
TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A "BOMB" WITH
27MB/24H FROM 06Z/24-06Z/25 FROM AL INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT WITH THE GFS WHICH DOES NOT
FOCUS ON A SOUTHERN CYCLONE INTO THE MIX. IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT LOW-END
CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE-TUE EVENING. SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHC OF T ALONG WITH A LIKELY POP OF SHRA. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WILL NOT
INCLUDE FLURRIES JUST YET ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THE DISPERSED MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMSL TERMINAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE KHSV TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...CIGS
LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    36  51  33  52 /  70  10   0  20
SHOALS        36  50  31  55 /  70  10   0  10
VINEMONT      36  50  33  52 /  80  10   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  34  47  32  52 /  70  10   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   38  53  33  51 /  80  20   0  20
FORT PAYNE    38  54  34  51 /  80  20   0  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 191758
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE AREA OF RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS BEEN ERODING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAIN IS COMING...BUT IT
MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH SURFACE FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA
COUNTIES. REDUCED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLOWLY TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS AND RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND INTO KMGM
AND KTOI BY 00Z. CIGS WILL LOWER AT KMGM AND KTOI OVERNIGHT AND
LIKELY REACH THE 1000-1500 FOOT RANGE. THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
CIGS COULD FALL BELOW 1000 FEET BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS
FORECAST. RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND KEPT VSBYS
AOA 3 MILES...WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS AT KMGM AND KTOI. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE EXITING CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  38  53  39  52 /  10  90  30  10  20
ANNISTON    50  40  54  41  52 /  20  90  50  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  49  40  55  41  54 /  20  90  30  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  51  40  56  41  55 /  50  90  40  10  20
CALERA      51  41  55  42  54 /  30 100  40  10  20
AUBURN      53  44  55  43  53 /  20  80  70  20  30
MONTGOMERY  56  45  58  45  56 /  60  90  60  20  30
TROY        56  45  57  45  55 /  60  80  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 191758
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE AREA OF RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS BEEN ERODING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAIN IS COMING...BUT IT
MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH SURFACE FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA
COUNTIES. REDUCED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLOWLY TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS AND RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND INTO KMGM
AND KTOI BY 00Z. CIGS WILL LOWER AT KMGM AND KTOI OVERNIGHT AND
LIKELY REACH THE 1000-1500 FOOT RANGE. THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
CIGS COULD FALL BELOW 1000 FEET BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS
FORECAST. RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND KEPT VSBYS
AOA 3 MILES...WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS AT KMGM AND KTOI. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE EXITING CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  38  53  39  52 /  10  90  30  10  20
ANNISTON    50  40  54  41  52 /  20  90  50  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  49  40  55  41  54 /  20  90  30  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  51  40  56  41  55 /  50  90  40  10  20
CALERA      51  41  55  42  54 /  30 100  40  10  20
AUBURN      53  44  55  43  53 /  20  80  70  20  30
MONTGOMERY  56  45  58  45  56 /  60  90  60  20  30
TROY        56  45  57  45  55 /  60  80  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 191728 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...A LULL IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR...THEN IFR
CIGS/VISBYS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECOND ROUND OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. AM EXPECTING THIS ROUND TO LAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EASE TO MVFR AND VFR LEVELS
FROM THE WEST.

/16
&&

.UPDATE...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF...ENHANCE PERIOD OF RAIN IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FA...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED
RAIN IS MOVING OVER WESTERN LA AS NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

/16


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KMOB 191728 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...A LULL IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR...THEN IFR
CIGS/VISBYS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECOND ROUND OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. AM EXPECTING THIS ROUND TO LAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EASE TO MVFR AND VFR LEVELS
FROM THE WEST.

/16
&&

.UPDATE...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF...ENHANCE PERIOD OF RAIN IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FA...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED
RAIN IS MOVING OVER WESTERN LA AS NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

/16


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KHUN 191720
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1014 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST AND ENDED UP
NUDGING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THESE LOCATIONS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL ENTER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH TOTALS NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMSL TERMINAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE KHSV TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...CIGS
LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191720
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1014 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST AND ENDED UP
NUDGING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THESE LOCATIONS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL ENTER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH TOTALS NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMSL TERMINAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE KHSV TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...CIGS
LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 191615
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE AREA OF RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS BEEN ERODING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAIN IS COMING...BUT IT
MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH SURFACE FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA
COUNTIES. REDUCED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLOWLY TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AFTER LOOKING AT OBS IN/NEAR THE
CURRENT RAIN SHIELD OVER LA/S MS...HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO MVFR WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD. FURTHER CIG LOWERING IS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
FAR OUT.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 557 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SET UP HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERALL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS MORNING THE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GENERALLY ACROSS TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS ALABAMA BUT NO PRECIPITATION JUST
YET.

A LEE SIDE SURFACE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING...INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THIS WILL BRING A
DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH VERY LOW
INSTABILITY...SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE WEAKENED SURFACE
FEATURE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT EXPECTING
THIS TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT COLD RAIN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS AND THE
DRIER AIR COMES IN WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF
COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUES AND
QUICKLY USHERS IN ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  38  53  39  52 /  10  90  30  10  20
ANNISTON    50  40  54  41  52 /  20  90  50  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  49  40  55  41  54 /  20  90  30  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  51  40  56  41  55 /  50  90  40  10  20
CALERA      51  41  55  42  54 /  30 100  40  10  20
AUBURN      53  44  55  43  53 /  20  80  70  20  30
MONTGOMERY  56  45  58  45  56 /  60  90  60  20  30
TROY        56  45  57  45  55 /  60  80  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 191615
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE AREA OF RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS BEEN ERODING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAIN IS COMING...BUT IT
MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH SURFACE FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA
COUNTIES. REDUCED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLOWLY TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AFTER LOOKING AT OBS IN/NEAR THE
CURRENT RAIN SHIELD OVER LA/S MS...HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO MVFR WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD. FURTHER CIG LOWERING IS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
FAR OUT.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 557 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SET UP HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERALL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS MORNING THE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GENERALLY ACROSS TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS ALABAMA BUT NO PRECIPITATION JUST
YET.

A LEE SIDE SURFACE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING...INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THIS WILL BRING A
DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH VERY LOW
INSTABILITY...SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE WEAKENED SURFACE
FEATURE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT EXPECTING
THIS TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT COLD RAIN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS AND THE
DRIER AIR COMES IN WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF
COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUES AND
QUICKLY USHERS IN ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  38  53  39  52 /  10  90  30  10  20
ANNISTON    50  40  54  41  52 /  20  90  50  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  49  40  55  41  54 /  20  90  30  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  51  40  56  41  55 /  50  90  40  10  20
CALERA      51  41  55  42  54 /  30 100  40  10  20
AUBURN      53  44  55  43  53 /  20  80  70  20  30
MONTGOMERY  56  45  58  45  56 /  60  90  60  20  30
TROY        56  45  57  45  55 /  60  80  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 191614
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1014 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST AND ENDED UP
NUDGING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THESE LOCATIONS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL ENTER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH TOTALS NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE KHSV TERMINAL WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN ENTERING THE TERMINALS
AFTER 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT RAIN...WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER EVEN FURTHER AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES RETURNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 191614
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1014 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST AND ENDED UP
NUDGING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THESE LOCATIONS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL ENTER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH TOTALS NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE KHSV TERMINAL WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN ENTERING THE TERMINALS
AFTER 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT RAIN...WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER EVEN FURTHER AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES RETURNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 191614
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1014 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST AND ENDED UP
NUDGING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THESE LOCATIONS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL ENTER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH TOTALS NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE KHSV TERMINAL WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN ENTERING THE TERMINALS
AFTER 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT RAIN...WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER EVEN FURTHER AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES RETURNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 191614
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1014 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST AND ENDED UP
NUDGING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THESE LOCATIONS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL ENTER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH TOTALS NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE KHSV TERMINAL WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN ENTERING THE TERMINALS
AFTER 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT RAIN...WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER EVEN FURTHER AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES RETURNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 191611 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF...ENHANCE PERIOD OF RAIN IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERNHALF
OF THE FA...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED
RAIN IS MOVING OVER WESTERN LA AS NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

/16


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 191611 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF...ENHANCE PERIOD OF RAIN IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERNHALF
OF THE FA...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED
RAIN IS MOVING OVER WESTERN LA AS NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

/16


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 191611 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF...ENHANCE PERIOD OF RAIN IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERNHALF
OF THE FA...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED
RAIN IS MOVING OVER WESTERN LA AS NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

/16


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 191611 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF...ENHANCE PERIOD OF RAIN IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERNHALF
OF THE FA...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED
RAIN IS MOVING OVER WESTERN LA AS NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

/16


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 191611 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF...ENHANCE PERIOD OF RAIN IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERNHALF
OF THE FA...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED
RAIN IS MOVING OVER WESTERN LA AS NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

/16


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 191611 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF...ENHANCE PERIOD OF RAIN IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERNHALF
OF THE FA...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED
RAIN IS MOVING OVER WESTERN LA AS NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

/16


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 191355 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
755 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014


.MARINE...UPDATED CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MOSTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. EXPECT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH
CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST BAYS AND SOUNDS AND SEAS BUILDING
TO 3 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR MOST MARINE ZONES FOR TODAY. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER COASTAL MS
THIS MORNING MOVING EAST. AS A RESULT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL NOT LIKELY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
REFLECTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY INCREASED
ISENTROPIC/LAYER LIFT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF MS ...LA AND
AL WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF OF PRECIP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE LOW
CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUING NEAR THE SFC ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED OCCURRING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STILL NOTED
OCCURRING MOSTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS. THE LOWEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE UPPER 50S ONLY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE PENSACOLA FL.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AMPLIFIES TO A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PROCESS.  A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROF BUT LEAVES AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  A
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF.  AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS...HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EJECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREA.  THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
WORDING OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

MARINE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SAT LEADING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SAT...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUE LEADING TO A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TUE THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON SAT THEN REDEVELOPING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH 20.12Z. BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  48  60  51  62 /  80  80  50  20  60
PENSACOLA   57  50  60  52  63 /  60  70  50  20  70
DESTIN      59  52  61  54  63 /  60  50  50  20  70
EVERGREEN   54  44  58  47  59 /  70  80  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  51  42  58  46  58 /  90  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      55  43  58  45  56 /  80  90  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   58  46  61  49  62 /  60  60  50  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 191355 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
755 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014


.MARINE...UPDATED CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MOSTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. EXPECT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH
CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST BAYS AND SOUNDS AND SEAS BUILDING
TO 3 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR MOST MARINE ZONES FOR TODAY. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER COASTAL MS
THIS MORNING MOVING EAST. AS A RESULT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL NOT LIKELY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
REFLECTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY INCREASED
ISENTROPIC/LAYER LIFT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF MS ...LA AND
AL WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF OF PRECIP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE LOW
CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUING NEAR THE SFC ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED OCCURRING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STILL NOTED
OCCURRING MOSTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS. THE LOWEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE UPPER 50S ONLY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE PENSACOLA FL.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AMPLIFIES TO A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PROCESS.  A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROF BUT LEAVES AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  A
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF.  AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS...HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EJECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREA.  THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
WORDING OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

MARINE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SAT LEADING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SAT...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUE LEADING TO A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TUE THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON SAT THEN REDEVELOPING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH 20.12Z. BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  48  60  51  62 /  80  80  50  20  60
PENSACOLA   57  50  60  52  63 /  60  70  50  20  70
DESTIN      59  52  61  54  63 /  60  50  50  20  70
EVERGREEN   54  44  58  47  59 /  70  80  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  51  42  58  46  58 /  90  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      55  43  58  45  56 /  80  90  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   58  46  61  49  62 /  60  60  50  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 191157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
557 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SET UP HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERALL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS MORNING THE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GENERALLY ACROSS TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS ALABAMA BUT NO PRECIPITATION JUST
YET.

A LEE SIDE SURFACE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING...INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THIS WILL BRING A
DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH VERY LOW
INSTABILITY...SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE WEAKENED SURFACE
FEATURE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT EXPECTING
THIS TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT COLD RAIN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS AND THE
DRIER AIR COMES IN WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF
COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUES AND
QUICKLY USHERS IN ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AFTER LOOKING AT OBS IN/NEAR THE
CURRENT RAIN SHIELD OVER LA/S MS...HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO MVFR WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD. FURTHER CIG LOWERING IS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
FAR OUT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  38  53  39  52 /  20  90  30  10  20
ANNISTON    51  40  54  41  52 /  30  90  50  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  50  40  55  41  54 /  30  90  30  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  51  40  56  41  55 /  60  90  40  10  20
CALERA      51  41  55  42  54 /  40 100  40  10  20
AUBURN      56  44  55  43  53 /  30  80  70  20  30
MONTGOMERY  57  45  58  45  56 /  60  90  60  20  30
TROY        58  45  57  45  55 /  60  80  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 191157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
557 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SET UP HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERALL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS MORNING THE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GENERALLY ACROSS TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS ALABAMA BUT NO PRECIPITATION JUST
YET.

A LEE SIDE SURFACE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING...INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THIS WILL BRING A
DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH VERY LOW
INSTABILITY...SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE WEAKENED SURFACE
FEATURE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT EXPECTING
THIS TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT COLD RAIN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS AND THE
DRIER AIR COMES IN WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF
COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUES AND
QUICKLY USHERS IN ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AFTER LOOKING AT OBS IN/NEAR THE
CURRENT RAIN SHIELD OVER LA/S MS...HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO MVFR WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD. FURTHER CIG LOWERING IS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
FAR OUT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  38  53  39  52 /  20  90  30  10  20
ANNISTON    51  40  54  41  52 /  30  90  50  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  50  40  55  41  54 /  30  90  30  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  51  40  56  41  55 /  60  90  40  10  20
CALERA      51  41  55  42  54 /  40 100  40  10  20
AUBURN      56  44  55  43  53 /  30  80  70  20  30
MONTGOMERY  57  45  58  45  56 /  60  90  60  20  30
TROY        58  45  57  45  55 /  60  80  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 191157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
557 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SET UP HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERALL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS MORNING THE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GENERALLY ACROSS TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS ALABAMA BUT NO PRECIPITATION JUST
YET.

A LEE SIDE SURFACE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING...INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THIS WILL BRING A
DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH VERY LOW
INSTABILITY...SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE WEAKENED SURFACE
FEATURE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT EXPECTING
THIS TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT COLD RAIN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS AND THE
DRIER AIR COMES IN WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF
COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUES AND
QUICKLY USHERS IN ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AFTER LOOKING AT OBS IN/NEAR THE
CURRENT RAIN SHIELD OVER LA/S MS...HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO MVFR WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD. FURTHER CIG LOWERING IS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
FAR OUT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  38  53  39  52 /  20  90  30  10  20
ANNISTON    51  40  54  41  52 /  30  90  50  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  50  40  55  41  54 /  30  90  30  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  51  40  56  41  55 /  60  90  40  10  20
CALERA      51  41  55  42  54 /  40 100  40  10  20
AUBURN      56  44  55  43  53 /  30  80  70  20  30
MONTGOMERY  57  45  58  45  56 /  60  90  60  20  30
TROY        58  45  57  45  55 /  60  80  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 191157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
557 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SET UP HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERALL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS MORNING THE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GENERALLY ACROSS TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS ALABAMA BUT NO PRECIPITATION JUST
YET.

A LEE SIDE SURFACE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING...INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THIS WILL BRING A
DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH VERY LOW
INSTABILITY...SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE WEAKENED SURFACE
FEATURE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT EXPECTING
THIS TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT COLD RAIN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS AND THE
DRIER AIR COMES IN WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF
COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUES AND
QUICKLY USHERS IN ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AFTER LOOKING AT OBS IN/NEAR THE
CURRENT RAIN SHIELD OVER LA/S MS...HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO MVFR WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD. FURTHER CIG LOWERING IS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
FAR OUT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  38  53  39  52 /  20  90  30  10  20
ANNISTON    51  40  54  41  52 /  30  90  50  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  50  40  55  41  54 /  30  90  30  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  51  40  56  41  55 /  60  90  40  10  20
CALERA      51  41  55  42  54 /  40 100  40  10  20
AUBURN      56  44  55  43  53 /  30  80  70  20  30
MONTGOMERY  57  45  58  45  56 /  60  90  60  20  30
TROY        58  45  57  45  55 /  60  80  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 191154 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER COASTAL MS
THIS MORNING MOVING EAST. AS A RESULT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL NOT LIKELY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
REFLECTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY INCREASED
ISENTROPIC/LAYER LIFT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF MS ...LA AND
AL WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF OF PRECIP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE LOW
CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUING NEAR THE SFC ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED OCCURRING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STILL NOTED
OCCURRING MOSTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS. THE LOWEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE UPPER 50S ONLY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE PENSACOLA FL.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AMPLIFIES TO A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PROCESS.  A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROF BUT LEAVES AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  A
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF.  AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS...HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EJECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREA.  THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
WORDING OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

MARINE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SAT LEADING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SAT...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUE LEADING TO A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TUE THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON SAT THEN REDEVELOPING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH 20.12Z. BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  48  60  51  62 /  80  80  50  20  60
PENSACOLA   57  50  60  52  63 /  60  70  50  20  70
DESTIN      59  52  61  54  63 /  60  50  50  20  70
EVERGREEN   54  44  58  47  59 /  70  80  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  51  42  58  46  58 /  90  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      55  43  58  45  56 /  80  90  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   58  46  61  49  62 /  60  60  50  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 191154 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER COASTAL MS
THIS MORNING MOVING EAST. AS A RESULT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL NOT LIKELY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
REFLECTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY INCREASED
ISENTROPIC/LAYER LIFT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF MS ...LA AND
AL WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF OF PRECIP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE LOW
CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUING NEAR THE SFC ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED OCCURRING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STILL NOTED
OCCURRING MOSTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS. THE LOWEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE UPPER 50S ONLY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE PENSACOLA FL.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AMPLIFIES TO A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PROCESS.  A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROF BUT LEAVES AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  A
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF.  AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS...HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EJECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREA.  THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
WORDING OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

MARINE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SAT LEADING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SAT...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUE LEADING TO A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TUE THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON SAT THEN REDEVELOPING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH 20.12Z. BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  48  60  51  62 /  80  80  50  20  60
PENSACOLA   57  50  60  52  63 /  60  70  50  20  70
DESTIN      59  52  61  54  63 /  60  50  50  20  70
EVERGREEN   54  44  58  47  59 /  70  80  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  51  42  58  46  58 /  90  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      55  43  58  45  56 /  80  90  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   58  46  61  49  62 /  60  60  50  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 191154 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER COASTAL MS
THIS MORNING MOVING EAST. AS A RESULT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL NOT LIKELY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
REFLECTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY INCREASED
ISENTROPIC/LAYER LIFT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF MS ...LA AND
AL WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF OF PRECIP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE LOW
CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUING NEAR THE SFC ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED OCCURRING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STILL NOTED
OCCURRING MOSTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS. THE LOWEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE UPPER 50S ONLY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE PENSACOLA FL.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AMPLIFIES TO A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PROCESS.  A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROF BUT LEAVES AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  A
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF.  AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS...HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EJECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREA.  THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
WORDING OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

MARINE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SAT LEADING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SAT...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUE LEADING TO A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TUE THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON SAT THEN REDEVELOPING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH 20.12Z. BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  48  60  51  62 /  80  80  50  20  60
PENSACOLA   57  50  60  52  63 /  60  70  50  20  70
DESTIN      59  52  61  54  63 /  60  50  50  20  70
EVERGREEN   54  44  58  47  59 /  70  80  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  51  42  58  46  58 /  90  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      55  43  58  45  56 /  80  90  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   58  46  61  49  62 /  60  60  50  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 191154 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER COASTAL MS
THIS MORNING MOVING EAST. AS A RESULT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL NOT LIKELY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
REFLECTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY INCREASED
ISENTROPIC/LAYER LIFT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF MS ...LA AND
AL WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF OF PRECIP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE LOW
CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUING NEAR THE SFC ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED OCCURRING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STILL NOTED
OCCURRING MOSTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS. THE LOWEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE UPPER 50S ONLY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE PENSACOLA FL.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AMPLIFIES TO A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PROCESS.  A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROF BUT LEAVES AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  A
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF.  AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS...HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EJECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREA.  THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
WORDING OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

MARINE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SAT LEADING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SAT...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUE LEADING TO A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TUE THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON SAT THEN REDEVELOPING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH 20.12Z. BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  48  60  51  62 /  80  80  50  20  60
PENSACOLA   57  50  60  52  63 /  60  70  50  20  70
DESTIN      59  52  61  54  63 /  60  50  50  20  70
EVERGREEN   54  44  58  47  59 /  70  80  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  51  42  58  46  58 /  90  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      55  43  58  45  56 /  80  90  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   58  46  61  49  62 /  60  60  50  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 191129 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
OUR NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SWRN US. AHEAD OF
THIS TROF WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS THAT WERE PUSHING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. TEMPS ATTM WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...MSL WAS THE WARM SPOT AT 41. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS THICK...BUT STLT SHOWS
MORE LOW CLOUDS...NOW OVER NW AL...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG BUT WILL MONITOR.

AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE CWA LATER TODAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTN. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SLEET PELLETS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
NW AL AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING...AS NOTED BY NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION RAIN.

THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY.
LOOK FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES BY
SATURDAY MRNG.

BY SATURDAY MRNG THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I65...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN UNTIL
18Z. AFTER 18Z AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING
TROF AND SFC LOW OVER THE GULF WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP ACROSS THE CWA FOR NOW SINCE
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE SE OF THE TN VALLEY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROF/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES ARND 150 J/KG WITH
40KT 8H WINDS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH THE 8H
WINDS/CAPES. THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SHRA ONLY.

BEHIND THE CDFNT ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME
POSSIBLE FLURRIES. ATTM DO NOT WANT TO FLIP FLOP WITH THE FCST SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SCT RAIN...SINCE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER TEMPS NEAR 60 ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

CHRISTMAS...MAY BE THE BEST DAY TO SEE SOME SUN...AS DRY WX IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS (ARND 50).

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE KHSV TERMINAL WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN ENTERING THE TERMINALS
AFTER 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT RAIN...WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER EVEN FURTHER AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES RETURNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191129 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
OUR NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SWRN US. AHEAD OF
THIS TROF WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS THAT WERE PUSHING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. TEMPS ATTM WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...MSL WAS THE WARM SPOT AT 41. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS THICK...BUT STLT SHOWS
MORE LOW CLOUDS...NOW OVER NW AL...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG BUT WILL MONITOR.

AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE CWA LATER TODAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTN. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SLEET PELLETS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
NW AL AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING...AS NOTED BY NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION RAIN.

THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY.
LOOK FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES BY
SATURDAY MRNG.

BY SATURDAY MRNG THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I65...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN UNTIL
18Z. AFTER 18Z AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING
TROF AND SFC LOW OVER THE GULF WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP ACROSS THE CWA FOR NOW SINCE
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE SE OF THE TN VALLEY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROF/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES ARND 150 J/KG WITH
40KT 8H WINDS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH THE 8H
WINDS/CAPES. THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SHRA ONLY.

BEHIND THE CDFNT ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME
POSSIBLE FLURRIES. ATTM DO NOT WANT TO FLIP FLOP WITH THE FCST SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SCT RAIN...SINCE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER TEMPS NEAR 60 ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

CHRISTMAS...MAY BE THE BEST DAY TO SEE SOME SUN...AS DRY WX IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS (ARND 50).

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE KHSV TERMINAL WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN ENTERING THE TERMINALS
AFTER 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT RAIN...WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER EVEN FURTHER AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES RETURNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 191048
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
448 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SET UP HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERALL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS MORNING THE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GENERALLY ACROSS TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS ALABAMA BUT NO PRECIPITATION JUST
YET.

A LEE SIDE SURFACE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING...INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THIS WILL BRING A
DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH VERY LOW
INSTABILITY...SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE WEAKENED SURFACE
FEATURE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT EXPECTING
THIS TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT COLD RAIN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS AND THE
DRIER AIR COMES IN WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF
COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUES AND
QUICKLY USHERS IN ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN HAS DISSIPATED WITH WAVE NUMBER ONE AS WE WAIT FOR THE RISE OF
WAVE NUMBER 2. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 12
HOURS. COULD BE A BRIEF AREA OF MVFR FOG FOR ANB AND ASN AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE VALLEY. BY 15Z WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SPRINKLES FOR TCL...MGM AND
TOI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT TOI AND MGM AFTER 15Z AND THEN
LIKELY RAIN AFTER 20 AND 21Z. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT A STRAY
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTHEAST AND
SPREADS OUT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AFTER BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z SATURDAY. WILL DETAIL THIS A TOUCH MORE WITH THE NEXT SET OF
TAFS AS WELL AS ENDING TIMES FOR THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  38  53  39  52 /  20  90  30  10  20
ANNISTON    51  40  54  41  52 /  30  90  50  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  50  40  55  41  54 /  30  90  30  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  51  40  56  41  55 /  60  90  40  10  20
CALERA      51  41  55  42  54 /  40 100  40  10  20
AUBURN      56  44  55  43  53 /  30  80  70  20  30
MONTGOMERY  57  45  58  45  56 /  60  90  60  20  30
TROY        58  45  57  45  55 /  60  80  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16





000
FXUS64 KBMX 191048
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
448 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SET UP HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERALL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS MORNING THE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GENERALLY ACROSS TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS ALABAMA BUT NO PRECIPITATION JUST
YET.

A LEE SIDE SURFACE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING...INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THIS WILL BRING A
DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH VERY LOW
INSTABILITY...SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE WEAKENED SURFACE
FEATURE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT EXPECTING
THIS TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT COLD RAIN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS AND THE
DRIER AIR COMES IN WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF
COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUES AND
QUICKLY USHERS IN ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN HAS DISSIPATED WITH WAVE NUMBER ONE AS WE WAIT FOR THE RISE OF
WAVE NUMBER 2. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 12
HOURS. COULD BE A BRIEF AREA OF MVFR FOG FOR ANB AND ASN AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE VALLEY. BY 15Z WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SPRINKLES FOR TCL...MGM AND
TOI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT TOI AND MGM AFTER 15Z AND THEN
LIKELY RAIN AFTER 20 AND 21Z. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT A STRAY
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTHEAST AND
SPREADS OUT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AFTER BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z SATURDAY. WILL DETAIL THIS A TOUCH MORE WITH THE NEXT SET OF
TAFS AS WELL AS ENDING TIMES FOR THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  38  53  39  52 /  20  90  30  10  20
ANNISTON    51  40  54  41  52 /  30  90  50  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  50  40  55  41  54 /  30  90  30  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  51  40  56  41  55 /  60  90  40  10  20
CALERA      51  41  55  42  54 /  40 100  40  10  20
AUBURN      56  44  55  43  53 /  30  80  70  20  30
MONTGOMERY  57  45  58  45  56 /  60  90  60  20  30
TROY        58  45  57  45  55 /  60  80  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16






000
FXUS64 KMOB 191045
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
REFLECTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY INCREASED
ISENTROPIC/LAYER LIFT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF MS ...LA AND
AL WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF OF PRECIP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE LOW
CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUING NEAR THE SFC ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED OCCURRING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STILL NOTED
OCCURRING MOSTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS. THE LOWEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE UPPER 50S ONLY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE PENSACOLA FL.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AMPLIFIES TO A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PROCESS.  A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROF BUT LEAVES AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  A
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF.  AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS...HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EJECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREA.  THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
WORDING OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SAT LEADING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SAT...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUE LEADING TO A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TUE THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON SAT THEN REDEVELOPING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH 20.12Z. BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  48  60  51  62 /  80  80  50  20  60
PENSACOLA   57  50  60  52  63 /  60  70  50  20  70
DESTIN      59  52  61  54  63 /  60  50  50  20  70
EVERGREEN   54  44  58  47  59 /  70  80  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  51  42  58  46  58 /  90  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      55  43  58  45  56 /  80  90  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   58  46  61  49  62 /  60  60  50  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 191045
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
REFLECTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY INCREASED
ISENTROPIC/LAYER LIFT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF MS ...LA AND
AL WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF OF PRECIP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE LOW
CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUING NEAR THE SFC ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED OCCURRING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STILL NOTED
OCCURRING MOSTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS. THE LOWEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE UPPER 50S ONLY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE PENSACOLA FL.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AMPLIFIES TO A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PROCESS.  A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROF BUT LEAVES AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  A
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF.  AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS...HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EJECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREA.  THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
WORDING OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SAT LEADING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SAT...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUE LEADING TO A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TUE THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON SAT THEN REDEVELOPING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH 20.12Z. BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  48  60  51  62 /  80  80  50  20  60
PENSACOLA   57  50  60  52  63 /  60  70  50  20  70
DESTIN      59  52  61  54  63 /  60  50  50  20  70
EVERGREEN   54  44  58  47  59 /  70  80  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  51  42  58  46  58 /  90  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      55  43  58  45  56 /  80  90  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   58  46  61  49  62 /  60  60  50  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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