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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 290544 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1144 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 846 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW LOW DO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GET. THEY WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER AGAIN SO HAVE
UPDATED THAT TREND AND BUMPED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE. HOWEVER...A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS STREAMING SE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. IF THIS DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF SHALLOW STRATUS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...CURRENT DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET/LAV VALUES AND WINDS ARE MORE
SE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SW. AS WELL...PREVIOUSLY FORMED STRATUS
OVER SE TEXAS/W LOUISIANA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THIS SUPPORTS A
LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS...LIKELY MORE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD TIME TO MOISTEN UP.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...WILL START THE TAFS WITH THE WIND SHEAR AS PREVIOUSLY
NOTED. OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 20-25KT ALREADY AT 12-1500FT SO WILL
CONTINUE THE FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 10KT AFTER SUNRISE. 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON SAT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN THE TAFS CURRENTLY HAVE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290544 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1144 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 846 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW LOW DO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GET. THEY WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER AGAIN SO HAVE
UPDATED THAT TREND AND BUMPED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE. HOWEVER...A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS STREAMING SE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. IF THIS DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF SHALLOW STRATUS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...CURRENT DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET/LAV VALUES AND WINDS ARE MORE
SE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SW. AS WELL...PREVIOUSLY FORMED STRATUS
OVER SE TEXAS/W LOUISIANA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THIS SUPPORTS A
LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS...LIKELY MORE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD TIME TO MOISTEN UP.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...WILL START THE TAFS WITH THE WIND SHEAR AS PREVIOUSLY
NOTED. OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 20-25KT ALREADY AT 12-1500FT SO WILL
CONTINUE THE FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 10KT AFTER SUNRISE. 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON SAT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN THE TAFS CURRENTLY HAVE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 290536 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1136 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
29.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES. CALM TO LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS OF 2 PM CST.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /21

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM OVER TX TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. ALSO BEING
ADVERTISED IS A LOBE OF ENERGY SWING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
PLAINS...AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND
HUDSON BAY. IT`S THIS VORT LOBE THAT PUSHES A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA REGION BY MONDAY MORN. THIS APPROACHING
FRONT AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEX WORK AGAINST
EACH OTHER...KEEPING THE ONSHORE FLOW ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE RESULT
FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VORT LOBE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS DETACHES FROM THE CLOSED LOW AND HEADS
EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT MOSTLY ACROSS THE FA BY TUESDAY
MORN....WHERE IT STALLS. WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN CLOSE
TO AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WEAKENING DYNAMICS MOVING OFF...NO APPRECIABLE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER
THE FA WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AM EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH THE FRONT FRONT WITH
DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PRETTY QUITE PERIOD ENSUES...WITH SOME
UPPER ENERGY MOVING FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE FA...WHILST THE LESS
ORGANIZED ECMWF IS ADVERTISING ANY RAIN STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE FA.
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX
FLATTENS WITH THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY MOVING EAST AND TEMPS COOL A
BIT...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE
EAST COAST TO THE GULF COAST REGION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  56  72  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   42  67  58  72  59 /  00  00  05  10  10
DESTIN      45  64  60  70  58 /  00  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   32  68  48  71  55 /  00  00  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  34  68  52  71  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
CAMDEN      32  68  51  71  55 /  00  00  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   32  68  48  72  52 /  00  00  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 290536 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1136 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
29.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES. CALM TO LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS OF 2 PM CST.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /21

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM OVER TX TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. ALSO BEING
ADVERTISED IS A LOBE OF ENERGY SWING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
PLAINS...AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND
HUDSON BAY. IT`S THIS VORT LOBE THAT PUSHES A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA REGION BY MONDAY MORN. THIS APPROACHING
FRONT AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEX WORK AGAINST
EACH OTHER...KEEPING THE ONSHORE FLOW ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE RESULT
FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VORT LOBE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS DETACHES FROM THE CLOSED LOW AND HEADS
EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT MOSTLY ACROSS THE FA BY TUESDAY
MORN....WHERE IT STALLS. WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN CLOSE
TO AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WEAKENING DYNAMICS MOVING OFF...NO APPRECIABLE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER
THE FA WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AM EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH THE FRONT FRONT WITH
DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PRETTY QUITE PERIOD ENSUES...WITH SOME
UPPER ENERGY MOVING FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE FA...WHILST THE LESS
ORGANIZED ECMWF IS ADVERTISING ANY RAIN STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE FA.
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX
FLATTENS WITH THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY MOVING EAST AND TEMPS COOL A
BIT...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE
EAST COAST TO THE GULF COAST REGION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  56  72  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   42  67  58  72  59 /  00  00  05  10  10
DESTIN      45  64  60  70  58 /  00  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   32  68  48  71  55 /  00  00  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  34  68  52  71  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
CAMDEN      32  68  51  71  55 /  00  00  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   32  68  48  72  52 /  00  00  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 290458
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1058 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE WIDELY VARYING THIS EVENING AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR
FREEZING ALREADY. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD A BIT IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST
OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE EAST MAY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES AND REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NW ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...BUT CIGS
WILL PROBABLY STAY NORTH OF KTCL AND KBHM. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

58/ROSE



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  60  47  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    29  61  47  67  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  62  51  67  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  32  64  52  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      33  63  50  68  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      34  61  46  67  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  33  66  48  71  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  65  47  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 290458
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1058 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE WIDELY VARYING THIS EVENING AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR
FREEZING ALREADY. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD A BIT IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST
OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE EAST MAY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES AND REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NW ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...BUT CIGS
WILL PROBABLY STAY NORTH OF KTCL AND KBHM. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

58/ROSE



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  60  47  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    29  61  47  67  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  62  51  67  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  32  64  52  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      33  63  50  68  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      34  61  46  67  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  33  66  48  71  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  65  47  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 290437
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1037 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE WIDELY VARYING THIS EVENING AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR
FREEZING ALREADY. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD A BIT IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST
OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE EAST MAY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES AND REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10
KNOTS BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE A
CORRIDOR OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH NW ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z...BUT THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGHER MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF KTCL
AND KBHM. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AT NORTHERN TAF
SITES AFTER 15Z...BUT WILL KEEP CLOUDS SCATTERED.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  60  47  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    29  61  47  67  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  62  51  67  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  32  64  52  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      33  63  50  68  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      34  61  46  67  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  33  66  48  71  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  65  47  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/58





000
FXUS64 KBMX 290437
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1037 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE WIDELY VARYING THIS EVENING AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR
FREEZING ALREADY. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD A BIT IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST
OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE EAST MAY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES AND REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10
KNOTS BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE A
CORRIDOR OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH NW ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z...BUT THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGHER MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF KTCL
AND KBHM. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AT NORTHERN TAF
SITES AFTER 15Z...BUT WILL KEEP CLOUDS SCATTERED.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  60  47  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    29  61  47  67  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  62  51  67  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  32  64  52  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      33  63  50  68  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      34  61  46  67  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  33  66  48  71  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  65  47  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/58





000
FXUS64 KBMX 290437
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1037 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE WIDELY VARYING THIS EVENING AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR
FREEZING ALREADY. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD A BIT IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST
OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE EAST MAY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES AND REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10
KNOTS BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE A
CORRIDOR OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH NW ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z...BUT THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGHER MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF KTCL
AND KBHM. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AT NORTHERN TAF
SITES AFTER 15Z...BUT WILL KEEP CLOUDS SCATTERED.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  60  47  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    29  61  47  67  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  62  51  67  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  32  64  52  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      33  63  50  68  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      34  61  46  67  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  33  66  48  71  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  65  47  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/58





000
FXUS64 KBMX 290437
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1037 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE WIDELY VARYING THIS EVENING AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR
FREEZING ALREADY. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD A BIT IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST
OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE EAST MAY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES AND REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10
KNOTS BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE A
CORRIDOR OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH NW ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z...BUT THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGHER MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF KTCL
AND KBHM. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AT NORTHERN TAF
SITES AFTER 15Z...BUT WILL KEEP CLOUDS SCATTERED.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  60  47  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    29  61  47  67  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  62  51  67  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  32  64  52  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      33  63  50  68  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      34  61  46  67  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  33  66  48  71  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  65  47  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/58





000
FXUS64 KHUN 290246 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
846 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW LOW DO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GET. THEY WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER AGAIN SO HAVE
UPDATED THAT TREND AND BUMPED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE. HOWEVER...A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS STREAMING SE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. IF THIS DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF SHALLOW STRATUS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...CURRENT DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET/LAV VALUES AND WINDS ARE MORE
SE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SW. AS WELL...PREVIOUSLY FORMED STRATUS
OVER SE TEXAS/W LOUISIANA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THIS SUPPORTS A
LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS...LIKELY MORE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD TIME TO MOISTEN UP.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP...AROUND 30-35KT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 00Z TAFS
TO MOVE IN AROUND 19/20Z SATURDAY.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290246 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
846 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW LOW DO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GET. THEY WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER AGAIN SO HAVE
UPDATED THAT TREND AND BUMPED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE. HOWEVER...A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS STREAMING SE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. IF THIS DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF SHALLOW STRATUS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...CURRENT DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET/LAV VALUES AND WINDS ARE MORE
SE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SW. AS WELL...PREVIOUSLY FORMED STRATUS
OVER SE TEXAS/W LOUISIANA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THIS SUPPORTS A
LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS...LIKELY MORE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD TIME TO MOISTEN UP.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP...AROUND 30-35KT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 00Z TAFS
TO MOVE IN AROUND 19/20Z SATURDAY.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290246 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
846 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW LOW DO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GET. THEY WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER AGAIN SO HAVE
UPDATED THAT TREND AND BUMPED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE. HOWEVER...A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS STREAMING SE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. IF THIS DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF SHALLOW STRATUS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...CURRENT DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET/LAV VALUES AND WINDS ARE MORE
SE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SW. AS WELL...PREVIOUSLY FORMED STRATUS
OVER SE TEXAS/W LOUISIANA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THIS SUPPORTS A
LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS...LIKELY MORE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD TIME TO MOISTEN UP.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP...AROUND 30-35KT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 00Z TAFS
TO MOVE IN AROUND 19/20Z SATURDAY.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290246 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
846 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW LOW DO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GET. THEY WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER AGAIN SO HAVE
UPDATED THAT TREND AND BUMPED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE. HOWEVER...A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS STREAMING SE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. IF THIS DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF SHALLOW STRATUS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...CURRENT DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET/LAV VALUES AND WINDS ARE MORE
SE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SW. AS WELL...PREVIOUSLY FORMED STRATUS
OVER SE TEXAS/W LOUISIANA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THIS SUPPORTS A
LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS...LIKELY MORE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD TIME TO MOISTEN UP.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP...AROUND 30-35KT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 00Z TAFS
TO MOVE IN AROUND 19/20Z SATURDAY.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290246 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
846 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW LOW DO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GET. THEY WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER AGAIN SO HAVE
UPDATED THAT TREND AND BUMPED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE. HOWEVER...A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS STREAMING SE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. IF THIS DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF SHALLOW STRATUS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...CURRENT DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET/LAV VALUES AND WINDS ARE MORE
SE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SW. AS WELL...PREVIOUSLY FORMED STRATUS
OVER SE TEXAS/W LOUISIANA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THIS SUPPORTS A
LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS...LIKELY MORE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD TIME TO MOISTEN UP.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP...AROUND 30-35KT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 00Z TAFS
TO MOVE IN AROUND 19/20Z SATURDAY.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290246 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
846 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW LOW DO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GET. THEY WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER AGAIN SO HAVE
UPDATED THAT TREND AND BUMPED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE. HOWEVER...A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS STREAMING SE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. IF THIS DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF SHALLOW STRATUS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...CURRENT DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET/LAV VALUES AND WINDS ARE MORE
SE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SW. AS WELL...PREVIOUSLY FORMED STRATUS
OVER SE TEXAS/W LOUISIANA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THIS SUPPORTS A
LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS...LIKELY MORE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD TIME TO MOISTEN UP.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP...AROUND 30-35KT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 00Z TAFS
TO MOVE IN AROUND 19/20Z SATURDAY.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290246 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
846 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW LOW DO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GET. THEY WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER AGAIN SO HAVE
UPDATED THAT TREND AND BUMPED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE. HOWEVER...A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS STREAMING SE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. IF THIS DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF SHALLOW STRATUS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...CURRENT DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET/LAV VALUES AND WINDS ARE MORE
SE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SW. AS WELL...PREVIOUSLY FORMED STRATUS
OVER SE TEXAS/W LOUISIANA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THIS SUPPORTS A
LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS...LIKELY MORE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD TIME TO MOISTEN UP.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP...AROUND 30-35KT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 00Z TAFS
TO MOVE IN AROUND 19/20Z SATURDAY.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290246 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
846 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW LOW DO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GET. THEY WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER AGAIN SO HAVE
UPDATED THAT TREND AND BUMPED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE. HOWEVER...A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS STREAMING SE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. IF THIS DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF SHALLOW STRATUS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...CURRENT DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET/LAV VALUES AND WINDS ARE MORE
SE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SW. AS WELL...PREVIOUSLY FORMED STRATUS
OVER SE TEXAS/W LOUISIANA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THIS SUPPORTS A
LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS...LIKELY MORE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD TIME TO MOISTEN UP.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP...AROUND 30-35KT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 00Z TAFS
TO MOVE IN AROUND 19/20Z SATURDAY.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290246 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
846 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW LOW DO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GET. THEY WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER AGAIN SO HAVE
UPDATED THAT TREND AND BUMPED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE. HOWEVER...A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS STREAMING SE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. IF THIS DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF SHALLOW STRATUS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...CURRENT DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET/LAV VALUES AND WINDS ARE MORE
SE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SW. AS WELL...PREVIOUSLY FORMED STRATUS
OVER SE TEXAS/W LOUISIANA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THIS SUPPORTS A
LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS...LIKELY MORE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD TIME TO MOISTEN UP.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP...AROUND 30-35KT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 00Z TAFS
TO MOVE IN AROUND 19/20Z SATURDAY.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290246 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
846 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW LOW DO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GET. THEY WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER AGAIN SO HAVE
UPDATED THAT TREND AND BUMPED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE. HOWEVER...A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS STREAMING SE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. IF THIS DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF SHALLOW STRATUS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...CURRENT DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET/LAV VALUES AND WINDS ARE MORE
SE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SW. AS WELL...PREVIOUSLY FORMED STRATUS
OVER SE TEXAS/W LOUISIANA HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THIS SUPPORTS A
LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS...LIKELY MORE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD TIME TO MOISTEN UP.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP...AROUND 30-35KT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 00Z TAFS
TO MOVE IN AROUND 19/20Z SATURDAY.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 282343
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
543 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES ARE UPON ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL. WE`LL SEE THAT SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL KICK IN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEGINNING THE STRONG
WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
PLACE. LOW CLOUDS COULD BE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE.

THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SUPPORTING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREAWIDE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING. A FAIRLY ZONAL 500MB FLOW
WILL HELP SLOW THE FRONT DOWN DRAMATICALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...STRETCHING FROM SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD TO
HUNTSVILLE BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT STALLS...SO WILL SUPPORT
AND LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS ADVERTISED TO EVENTUALLY
WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10
KNOTS BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE A
CORRIDOR OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH NW ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z...BUT THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGHER MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF KTCL
AND KBHM. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AT NORTHERN TAF
SITES AFTER 15Z...BUT WILL KEEP CLOUDS SCATTERED.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  60  47  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    31  61  47  67  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  62  51  67  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  34  64  52  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      35  63  50  68  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      34  61  46  67  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  33  66  48  71  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  65  47  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 282343
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
543 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES ARE UPON ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL. WE`LL SEE THAT SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL KICK IN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEGINNING THE STRONG
WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
PLACE. LOW CLOUDS COULD BE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE.

THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SUPPORTING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREAWIDE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING. A FAIRLY ZONAL 500MB FLOW
WILL HELP SLOW THE FRONT DOWN DRAMATICALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...STRETCHING FROM SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD TO
HUNTSVILLE BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT STALLS...SO WILL SUPPORT
AND LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS ADVERTISED TO EVENTUALLY
WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10
KNOTS BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE A
CORRIDOR OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH NW ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z...BUT THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGHER MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF KTCL
AND KBHM. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AT NORTHERN TAF
SITES AFTER 15Z...BUT WILL KEEP CLOUDS SCATTERED.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  60  47  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    31  61  47  67  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  62  51  67  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  34  64  52  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      35  63  50  68  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      34  61  46  67  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  33  66  48  71  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  65  47  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 282335 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP...AROUND 30-35KT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 00Z TAFS
TO MOVE IN AROUND 19/20Z SATURDAY.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 282335 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP...AROUND 30-35KT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 00Z TAFS
TO MOVE IN AROUND 19/20Z SATURDAY.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 282332 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
532 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
29.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES. CALM TO LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS OF 2 PM CST.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /21

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM OVER TX TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. ALSO BEING
ADVERTISED IS A LOBE OF ENERGY SWING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
PLAINS...AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND
HUDSON BAY. IT`S THIS VORT LOBE THAT PUSHES A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA REGION BY MONDAY MORN. THIS APPROACHING
FRONT AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEX WORK AGAINST
EACH OTHER...KEEPING THE ONSHORE FLOW ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE RESULT
FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VORT LOBE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS DETACHES FROM THE CLOSED LOW AND HEADS
EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT MOSTLY ACROSS THE FA BY TUESDAY
MORN....WHERE IT STALLS. WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN CLOSE
TO AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WEAKENING DYNAMICS MOVING OFF...NO APPRECIABLE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER
THE FA WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AM EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH THE FRONT FRONT WITH
DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PRETTY QUITE PERIOD ENSUES...WITH SOME
UPPER ENERGY MOVING FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE FA...WHILST THE LESS
ORGANIZED ECMWF IS ADVERTISING ANY RAIN STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE FA.
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX
FLATTENS WITH THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY MOVING EAST AND TEMPS COOL A
BIT...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE
EAST COAST TO THE GULF COAST REGION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  56  72  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   42  67  58  72  59 /  00  00  05  10  10
DESTIN      45  64  60  70  58 /  00  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   32  68  48  71  55 /  00  00  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  34  68  52  71  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
CAMDEN      32  68  51  71  55 /  00  00  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   32  68  48  72  52 /  00  00  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 282332 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
532 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
29.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES. CALM TO LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS OF 2 PM CST.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /21

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM OVER TX TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. ALSO BEING
ADVERTISED IS A LOBE OF ENERGY SWING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
PLAINS...AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND
HUDSON BAY. IT`S THIS VORT LOBE THAT PUSHES A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA REGION BY MONDAY MORN. THIS APPROACHING
FRONT AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEX WORK AGAINST
EACH OTHER...KEEPING THE ONSHORE FLOW ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE RESULT
FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VORT LOBE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS DETACHES FROM THE CLOSED LOW AND HEADS
EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT MOSTLY ACROSS THE FA BY TUESDAY
MORN....WHERE IT STALLS. WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN CLOSE
TO AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WEAKENING DYNAMICS MOVING OFF...NO APPRECIABLE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER
THE FA WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AM EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH THE FRONT FRONT WITH
DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PRETTY QUITE PERIOD ENSUES...WITH SOME
UPPER ENERGY MOVING FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE FA...WHILST THE LESS
ORGANIZED ECMWF IS ADVERTISING ANY RAIN STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE FA.
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX
FLATTENS WITH THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY MOVING EAST AND TEMPS COOL A
BIT...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE
EAST COAST TO THE GULF COAST REGION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  56  72  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   42  67  58  72  59 /  00  00  05  10  10
DESTIN      45  64  60  70  58 /  00  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   32  68  48  71  55 /  00  00  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  34  68  52  71  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
CAMDEN      32  68  51  71  55 /  00  00  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   32  68  48  72  52 /  00  00  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 282332 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
532 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
29.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES. CALM TO LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS OF 2 PM CST.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /21

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM OVER TX TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. ALSO BEING
ADVERTISED IS A LOBE OF ENERGY SWING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
PLAINS...AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND
HUDSON BAY. IT`S THIS VORT LOBE THAT PUSHES A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA REGION BY MONDAY MORN. THIS APPROACHING
FRONT AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEX WORK AGAINST
EACH OTHER...KEEPING THE ONSHORE FLOW ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE RESULT
FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VORT LOBE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS DETACHES FROM THE CLOSED LOW AND HEADS
EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT MOSTLY ACROSS THE FA BY TUESDAY
MORN....WHERE IT STALLS. WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN CLOSE
TO AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WEAKENING DYNAMICS MOVING OFF...NO APPRECIABLE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER
THE FA WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AM EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH THE FRONT FRONT WITH
DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PRETTY QUITE PERIOD ENSUES...WITH SOME
UPPER ENERGY MOVING FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE FA...WHILST THE LESS
ORGANIZED ECMWF IS ADVERTISING ANY RAIN STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE FA.
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX
FLATTENS WITH THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY MOVING EAST AND TEMPS COOL A
BIT...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE
EAST COAST TO THE GULF COAST REGION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  56  72  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   42  67  58  72  59 /  00  00  05  10  10
DESTIN      45  64  60  70  58 /  00  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   32  68  48  71  55 /  00  00  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  34  68  52  71  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
CAMDEN      32  68  51  71  55 /  00  00  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   32  68  48  72  52 /  00  00  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 282332 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
532 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
29.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES. CALM TO LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS OF 2 PM CST.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /21

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM OVER TX TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. ALSO BEING
ADVERTISED IS A LOBE OF ENERGY SWING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
PLAINS...AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND
HUDSON BAY. IT`S THIS VORT LOBE THAT PUSHES A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA REGION BY MONDAY MORN. THIS APPROACHING
FRONT AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEX WORK AGAINST
EACH OTHER...KEEPING THE ONSHORE FLOW ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE RESULT
FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VORT LOBE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS DETACHES FROM THE CLOSED LOW AND HEADS
EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT MOSTLY ACROSS THE FA BY TUESDAY
MORN....WHERE IT STALLS. WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN CLOSE
TO AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WEAKENING DYNAMICS MOVING OFF...NO APPRECIABLE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER
THE FA WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AM EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH THE FRONT FRONT WITH
DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PRETTY QUITE PERIOD ENSUES...WITH SOME
UPPER ENERGY MOVING FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE FA...WHILST THE LESS
ORGANIZED ECMWF IS ADVERTISING ANY RAIN STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE FA.
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX
FLATTENS WITH THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY MOVING EAST AND TEMPS COOL A
BIT...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE
EAST COAST TO THE GULF COAST REGION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  56  72  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   42  67  58  72  59 /  00  00  05  10  10
DESTIN      45  64  60  70  58 /  00  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   32  68  48  71  55 /  00  00  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  34  68  52  71  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
CAMDEN      32  68  51  71  55 /  00  00  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   32  68  48  72  52 /  00  00  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 282158
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS OF 2 PM CST.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /21

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM OVER TX TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. ALSO BEING
ADVERTISED IS A LOBE OF ENERGY SWING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
PLAINS...AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND
HUDSON BAY. IT`S THIS VORT LOBE THAT PUSHES A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA REGION BY MONDAY MORN. THIS APPROACHING
FRONT AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEX WORK AGAINST
EACH OTHER...KEEPING THE ONSHORE FLOW ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE RESULT
FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VORT LOBE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS DETACHES FROM THE CLOSED LOW AND HEADS
EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT MOSTLY ACROSS THE FA BY TUESDAY
MORN....WHERE IT STALLS. WITHT HE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN CLOSE
TO AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WEAKENING DYNAMICS MOVING OFF...NO APPRECIABLE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER
THE FA WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AM EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH THE FRONT FRONT WITH
DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PRETTY QUITE PERIOD ENSUES...WITH SOME
UPPER ENERGY MOVING FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE FA...WHILST THE LESS
ORGANIZED ECMWF IS ADVERTISING ANY RAIN STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE FA.
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX
FLATTENS WITH THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY MOVING EAST AND TEMPS COOL A
BIT...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH CLEAR SKIES. CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. /21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM
THE EAST COAST TO THE GULF COAST REGION. /21


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  56  72  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   42  67  58  72  59 /  00  00  05  10  10
DESTIN      45  64  60  70  58 /  00  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   32  68  48  71  55 /  00  00  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  34  68  52  71  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
CAMDEN      32  68  51  71  55 /  00  00  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   32  68  48  72  52 /  00  00  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/16







000
FXUS64 KMOB 282158
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS OF 2 PM CST.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /21

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM OVER TX TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. ALSO BEING
ADVERTISED IS A LOBE OF ENERGY SWING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
PLAINS...AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND
HUDSON BAY. IT`S THIS VORT LOBE THAT PUSHES A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA REGION BY MONDAY MORN. THIS APPROACHING
FRONT AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEX WORK AGAINST
EACH OTHER...KEEPING THE ONSHORE FLOW ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE RESULT
FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VORT LOBE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS DETACHES FROM THE CLOSED LOW AND HEADS
EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT MOSTLY ACROSS THE FA BY TUESDAY
MORN....WHERE IT STALLS. WITHT HE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN CLOSE
TO AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WEAKENING DYNAMICS MOVING OFF...NO APPRECIABLE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER
THE FA WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AM EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH THE FRONT FRONT WITH
DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PRETTY QUITE PERIOD ENSUES...WITH SOME
UPPER ENERGY MOVING FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE FA...WHILST THE LESS
ORGANIZED ECMWF IS ADVERTISING ANY RAIN STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE FA.
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX
FLATTENS WITH THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY MOVING EAST AND TEMPS COOL A
BIT...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH CLEAR SKIES. CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. /21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM
THE EAST COAST TO THE GULF COAST REGION. /21


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  56  72  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   42  67  58  72  59 /  00  00  05  10  10
DESTIN      45  64  60  70  58 /  00  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   32  68  48  71  55 /  00  00  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  34  68  52  71  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
CAMDEN      32  68  51  71  55 /  00  00  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   32  68  48  72  52 /  00  00  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/16






000
FXUS64 KBMX 282146
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
346 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES ARE UPON ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL. WE`LL SEE THAT SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL KICK IN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEGINNING THE STRONG
WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
PLACE. LOW CLOUDS COULD BE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE.

THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SUPPORTING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREAWIDE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING. A FAIRLY ZONAL 500MB FLOW
WILL HELP SLOW THE FRONT DOWN DRAMATICALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...STRETCHING FROM SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD TO
HUNTSVILLE BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT STALLS...SO WILL SUPPORT
AND LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS ADVERTISED TO EVENTUALLY
WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD. WE WILL SEE THE WINDS
SHIFT OVER TO MORE SOUTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN
WINDS WILL REMAIN VRB BETWEEN 3 TO 5 KTS. BY 15Z SATURDAY WINDS
WILL BE OUT THE SOUTH AROUND 7KTS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  60  47  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    31  61  47  67  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  62  51  67  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  34  64  52  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      35  63  50  68  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      34  61  46  67  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  33  66  48  71  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  65  47  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 282146
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
346 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES ARE UPON ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL. WE`LL SEE THAT SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL EASILY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL KICK IN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEGINNING THE STRONG
WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
PLACE. LOW CLOUDS COULD BE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE.

THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SUPPORTING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREAWIDE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING. A FAIRLY ZONAL 500MB FLOW
WILL HELP SLOW THE FRONT DOWN DRAMATICALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...STRETCHING FROM SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD TO
HUNTSVILLE BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT STALLS...SO WILL SUPPORT
AND LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS ADVERTISED TO EVENTUALLY
WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD. WE WILL SEE THE WINDS
SHIFT OVER TO MORE SOUTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN
WINDS WILL REMAIN VRB BETWEEN 3 TO 5 KTS. BY 15Z SATURDAY WINDS
WILL BE OUT THE SOUTH AROUND 7KTS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  60  47  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    31  61  47  67  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  62  51  67  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  34  64  52  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      35  63  50  68  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      34  61  46  67  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  33  66  48  71  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  65  47  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 281932
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 29/14-15Z AT
KHSV/KMSL TERMINALS. THEN, RAPID STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN MISS VALLEY SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO NO PRECIP
EXPECTED...BUT MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY MAINTAIN SPEEDS AROUND 5-6 KTS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCH STRONGER SWRLY WINDS
IN THE INVERSION LAYER ALOFT (GTE 30 KTS) ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z
WITH NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS ANTICIPATED. LLWS WILL DECREASE WITH THE
ONSET OF MIXING AFTER 14-15Z.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    31  60  48  65 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        33  62  51  67 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      33  60  50  66 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  32  58  48  65 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   29  59  44  63 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    28  59  43  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281932
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 29/14-15Z AT
KHSV/KMSL TERMINALS. THEN, RAPID STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN MISS VALLEY SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO NO PRECIP
EXPECTED...BUT MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY MAINTAIN SPEEDS AROUND 5-6 KTS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCH STRONGER SWRLY WINDS
IN THE INVERSION LAYER ALOFT (GTE 30 KTS) ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z
WITH NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS ANTICIPATED. LLWS WILL DECREASE WITH THE
ONSET OF MIXING AFTER 14-15Z.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    31  60  48  65 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        33  62  51  67 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      33  60  50  66 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  32  58  48  65 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   29  59  44  63 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    28  59  43  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281750 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1150 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1031 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY AS A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME THIN CIRRUS MAY INVADE THE AREA, BUT THAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST TODAY, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWING AROUND FROM THE E TO SE. A FEW GUSTS COULD OCCUR
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING, BUT GENERALLY BELOW 15 KTS.
MILD WAA WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S. A QUICK WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 29/14-15Z AT
KHSV/KMSL TERMINALS. THEN, RAPID STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN MISS VALLEY SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO NO PRECIP
EXPECTED...BUT MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY MAINTAIN SPEEDS AROUND 5-6 KTS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCH STRONGER SWRLY WINDS
IN THE INVERSION LAYER ALOFT (GTE 30 KTS) ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z
WITH NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS ANTICIPATED. LLWS WILL DECREASE WITH THE
ONSET OF MIXING AFTER 14-15Z.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281750 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1150 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1031 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY AS A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME THIN CIRRUS MAY INVADE THE AREA, BUT THAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST TODAY, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWING AROUND FROM THE E TO SE. A FEW GUSTS COULD OCCUR
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING, BUT GENERALLY BELOW 15 KTS.
MILD WAA WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S. A QUICK WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 29/14-15Z AT
KHSV/KMSL TERMINALS. THEN, RAPID STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN MISS VALLEY SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO NO PRECIP
EXPECTED...BUT MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY MAINTAIN SPEEDS AROUND 5-6 KTS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCH STRONGER SWRLY WINDS
IN THE INVERSION LAYER ALOFT (GTE 30 KTS) ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z
WITH NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS ANTICIPATED. LLWS WILL DECREASE WITH THE
ONSET OF MIXING AFTER 14-15Z.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281739 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1139 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A DEEP DRY LAYER PREVAILS IN AN
UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE UNITED
STATES. IT HAS BEEN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE SKY WILL BE FREE OF CLOUDS
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH COOL SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 OVER
OUR COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT TODAY AND STAY AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FURTHER EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
DEEP DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL INTO THE MID AND LOWER 30S IN
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND LOWER 40S ALONG BEACHES. 77/BD

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO SEMI-ZONAL MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH ALL THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WE WILL WARM TO THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT BEING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEND A POLAR FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MIDSOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
AT THE DOORSTEP OF OUR FAR NW FORECAST AREA (FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL)
MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BRIEFLY PUSH INTO AREAS LIKE
BUTLER AND WAYNESBORO...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY PREVENT
ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THERE IS NO FORCING ALOFT FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
28.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES OF LESS THAN VFR ARE VERY LOW EXCEPT
POSSIBLE SMALL AREAS OF MIST IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MARSHES
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. 77/BD

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. THE FLATTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD RESULT IN QUICKLY WEAKENING OFFSHORE WINDS
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVER BAYS...
SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING IN THE SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REGIME WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
INTO MID MORNING TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF TODAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST
THEN EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND OPENING A WINDOW FOR POSSIBLE MARINE
FOG NEAR SHORE SUNDAY. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  44  68  54  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   58  49  67  55  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
DESTIN      56  47  65  55  70 /  00  05  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   56  33  68  46  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  58  35  69  51  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
CAMDEN      55  34  67  47  71 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   58  32  68  45  73 /  00  05  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 281739 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1139 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A DEEP DRY LAYER PREVAILS IN AN
UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE UNITED
STATES. IT HAS BEEN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE SKY WILL BE FREE OF CLOUDS
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH COOL SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 OVER
OUR COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT TODAY AND STAY AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FURTHER EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
DEEP DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL INTO THE MID AND LOWER 30S IN
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND LOWER 40S ALONG BEACHES. 77/BD

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO SEMI-ZONAL MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH ALL THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WE WILL WARM TO THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT BEING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEND A POLAR FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MIDSOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
AT THE DOORSTEP OF OUR FAR NW FORECAST AREA (FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL)
MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BRIEFLY PUSH INTO AREAS LIKE
BUTLER AND WAYNESBORO...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY PREVENT
ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THERE IS NO FORCING ALOFT FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
28.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES OF LESS THAN VFR ARE VERY LOW EXCEPT
POSSIBLE SMALL AREAS OF MIST IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MARSHES
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. 77/BD

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. THE FLATTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD RESULT IN QUICKLY WEAKENING OFFSHORE WINDS
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVER BAYS...
SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING IN THE SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REGIME WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
INTO MID MORNING TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF TODAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST
THEN EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND OPENING A WINDOW FOR POSSIBLE MARINE
FOG NEAR SHORE SUNDAY. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  44  68  54  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   58  49  67  55  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
DESTIN      56  47  65  55  70 /  00  05  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   56  33  68  46  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  58  35  69  51  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
CAMDEN      55  34  67  47  71 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   58  32  68  45  73 /  00  05  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 281739 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1139 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A DEEP DRY LAYER PREVAILS IN AN
UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE UNITED
STATES. IT HAS BEEN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE SKY WILL BE FREE OF CLOUDS
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH COOL SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 OVER
OUR COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT TODAY AND STAY AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FURTHER EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
DEEP DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL INTO THE MID AND LOWER 30S IN
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND LOWER 40S ALONG BEACHES. 77/BD

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO SEMI-ZONAL MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH ALL THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WE WILL WARM TO THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT BEING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEND A POLAR FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MIDSOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
AT THE DOORSTEP OF OUR FAR NW FORECAST AREA (FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL)
MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BRIEFLY PUSH INTO AREAS LIKE
BUTLER AND WAYNESBORO...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY PREVENT
ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THERE IS NO FORCING ALOFT FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
28.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES OF LESS THAN VFR ARE VERY LOW EXCEPT
POSSIBLE SMALL AREAS OF MIST IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MARSHES
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. 77/BD

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. THE FLATTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD RESULT IN QUICKLY WEAKENING OFFSHORE WINDS
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVER BAYS...
SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING IN THE SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REGIME WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
INTO MID MORNING TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF TODAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST
THEN EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND OPENING A WINDOW FOR POSSIBLE MARINE
FOG NEAR SHORE SUNDAY. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  44  68  54  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   58  49  67  55  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
DESTIN      56  47  65  55  70 /  00  05  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   56  33  68  46  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  58  35  69  51  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
CAMDEN      55  34  67  47  71 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   58  32  68  45  73 /  00  05  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 281739 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1139 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A DEEP DRY LAYER PREVAILS IN AN
UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE UNITED
STATES. IT HAS BEEN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE SKY WILL BE FREE OF CLOUDS
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH COOL SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 OVER
OUR COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT TODAY AND STAY AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FURTHER EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
DEEP DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL INTO THE MID AND LOWER 30S IN
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND LOWER 40S ALONG BEACHES. 77/BD

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO SEMI-ZONAL MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH ALL THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WE WILL WARM TO THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT BEING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEND A POLAR FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MIDSOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
AT THE DOORSTEP OF OUR FAR NW FORECAST AREA (FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL)
MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BRIEFLY PUSH INTO AREAS LIKE
BUTLER AND WAYNESBORO...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY PREVENT
ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THERE IS NO FORCING ALOFT FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
28.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES OF LESS THAN VFR ARE VERY LOW EXCEPT
POSSIBLE SMALL AREAS OF MIST IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MARSHES
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. 77/BD

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. THE FLATTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD RESULT IN QUICKLY WEAKENING OFFSHORE WINDS
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVER BAYS...
SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING IN THE SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REGIME WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
INTO MID MORNING TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF TODAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST
THEN EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND OPENING A WINDOW FOR POSSIBLE MARINE
FOG NEAR SHORE SUNDAY. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  44  68  54  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   58  49  67  55  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
DESTIN      56  47  65  55  70 /  00  05  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   56  33  68  46  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  58  35  69  51  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
CAMDEN      55  34  67  47  71 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   58  32  68  45  73 /  00  05  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 281715
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1115 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE TN VALLEY.
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING
TONIGHT. UPDATES FOR THE HOURLY TRENDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

A WARMUP WITH ENSUE AS MOISTURE LEVELS AND THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING SAT AND
SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO LOW STRATUS SPREADING NNE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH
SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH NIGHTS. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH FOR FOG FORMATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY MONDAY. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THE FRONT SLOWS AND
APPEARS TO STALL OR MEANDER OVER NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA THRU
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

16/19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD. WE WILL SEE THE WINDS
SHIFT OVER TO MORE SOUTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UNITL THEN
WINDS WILL REMAIN VRB BETWEEN 3 TO 5 KTS. BY 15Z SATURDAY WINDS
WILL BE OUT THE SOUTH AROUND 7KTS.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. RH VALUES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HAVE DROPPED BELOW 30 PERCENT. WITH THAT SAID
WINDS ARE NO BEGINNING TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
DEWPOINTS AREA EXEPECTED TO RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES
IN THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY ENTERS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THRU MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  30  60  47  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    53  30  61  47  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  36  62  51  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  55  36  65  52  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      54  36  63  50  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      54  33  61  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  32  66  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        56  30  65  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 281715
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1115 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE TN VALLEY.
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING
TONIGHT. UPDATES FOR THE HOURLY TRENDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

A WARMUP WITH ENSUE AS MOISTURE LEVELS AND THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING SAT AND
SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO LOW STRATUS SPREADING NNE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH
SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH NIGHTS. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH FOR FOG FORMATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY MONDAY. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THE FRONT SLOWS AND
APPEARS TO STALL OR MEANDER OVER NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA THRU
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

16/19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD. WE WILL SEE THE WINDS
SHIFT OVER TO MORE SOUTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UNITL THEN
WINDS WILL REMAIN VRB BETWEEN 3 TO 5 KTS. BY 15Z SATURDAY WINDS
WILL BE OUT THE SOUTH AROUND 7KTS.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. RH VALUES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HAVE DROPPED BELOW 30 PERCENT. WITH THAT SAID
WINDS ARE NO BEGINNING TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
DEWPOINTS AREA EXEPECTED TO RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES
IN THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY ENTERS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THRU MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  30  60  47  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    53  30  61  47  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  36  62  51  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  55  36  65  52  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      54  36  63  50  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      54  33  61  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  32  66  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        56  30  65  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 281631 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1031 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER IN GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY AS A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME THIN CIRRUS MAY INVADE THE AREA, BUT THAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST TODAY, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWING AROUND FROM THE E TO SE. A FEW GUSTS COULD OCCUR
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING, BUT GENERALLY BELOW 15 KTS.
MILD WAA WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S. A QUICK WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 521 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/29 AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281631 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1031 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER IN GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY AS A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME THIN CIRRUS MAY INVADE THE AREA, BUT THAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST TODAY, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWING AROUND FROM THE E TO SE. A FEW GUSTS COULD OCCUR
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING, BUT GENERALLY BELOW 15 KTS.
MILD WAA WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S. A QUICK WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 521 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/29 AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281127
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
527 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STARTING THE DAY OFF RATHER COLD WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S BY SUNRISE AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY
SITS OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TONIGHT. A WARMUP WITH ENSUE AS MOISTURE
LEVELS AND THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPING SAT AND SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS SPREADING NNE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BOTH SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND HIGHER
DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH NIGHTS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH FOR FOG FORMATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY MONDAY. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THE FRONT SLOWS AND
APPEARS TO STALL OR MEANDER OVER NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA THRU
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS...THAT GRADUALLY
TURN FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  30  60  47  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    52  30  61  47  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  36  62  51  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  55  36  65  52  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      54  36  63  50  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  33  61  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  32  66  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        55  30  65  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 281127
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
527 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STARTING THE DAY OFF RATHER COLD WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S BY SUNRISE AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY
SITS OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TONIGHT. A WARMUP WITH ENSUE AS MOISTURE
LEVELS AND THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPING SAT AND SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS SPREADING NNE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BOTH SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND HIGHER
DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH NIGHTS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH FOR FOG FORMATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY MONDAY. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THE FRONT SLOWS AND
APPEARS TO STALL OR MEANDER OVER NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA THRU
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS...THAT GRADUALLY
TURN FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  30  60  47  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    52  30  61  47  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  36  62  51  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  55  36  65  52  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      54  36  63  50  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  33  61  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  32  66  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        55  30  65  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 281127
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
527 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STARTING THE DAY OFF RATHER COLD WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S BY SUNRISE AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY
SITS OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TONIGHT. A WARMUP WITH ENSUE AS MOISTURE
LEVELS AND THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPING SAT AND SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS SPREADING NNE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BOTH SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND HIGHER
DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH NIGHTS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH FOR FOG FORMATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY MONDAY. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THE FRONT SLOWS AND
APPEARS TO STALL OR MEANDER OVER NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA THRU
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS...THAT GRADUALLY
TURN FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  30  60  47  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    52  30  61  47  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  36  62  51  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  55  36  65  52  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      54  36  63  50  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  33  61  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  32  66  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        55  30  65  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 281127
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
527 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STARTING THE DAY OFF RATHER COLD WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S BY SUNRISE AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY
SITS OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TONIGHT. A WARMUP WITH ENSUE AS MOISTURE
LEVELS AND THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPING SAT AND SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS SPREADING NNE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BOTH SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND HIGHER
DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH NIGHTS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH FOR FOG FORMATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY MONDAY. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THE FRONT SLOWS AND
APPEARS TO STALL OR MEANDER OVER NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA THRU
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS...THAT GRADUALLY
TURN FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  30  60  47  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    52  30  61  47  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  36  62  51  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  55  36  65  52  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      54  36  63  50  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  33  61  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  32  66  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        55  30  65  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KHUN 281121 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
521 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 429 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
COLD START THIS MORNING WITH A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WARM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COMPARED TO THURSDAYS HIGHS BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR WAA AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCOMING FRONT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL EXIST TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND STALLS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. DUE TO THE CONTINUED INCONSISTENCY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WENT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG EITHER WAY AND DOES NOT BRING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/29 AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281029
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
429 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD START THIS MORNING WITH A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WARM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COMPARED TO THURSDAYS HIGHS BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR WAA AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCOMING FRONT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL EXIST TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND STALLS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. DUE TO THE CONTINUED INCONSISTENCY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WENT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG EITHER WAY AND DOES NOT BRING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1131 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE TAFS FOR THE 06Z UPDATED.
CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT...TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO GO SKC IN THE
TAFS BECAUSE THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW OR SCT LOW-MID CLOUDS FLOATING
AROUND OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10KT FOR FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    48  34  60  50 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        51  37  60  52 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      49  35  59  50 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  47  33  58  49 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   47  32  58  46 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    46  30  58  45 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281002
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
402 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STARTING THE DAY OFF RATHER COLD WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S BY SUNRISE AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY SITS
OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TONIGHT. A WARMUP WITH ENSUE AS MOISTURE
LEVELS AND THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPING SAT AND SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS SPREADING NNE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH
NIGHTS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH FOR FOG
FORMATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY MONDAY. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THE FRONT SLOWS AND
APPEARS TO STALL OR MEANDER OVER NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA THRU
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  30  60  47  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    52  30  61  47  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  36  62  51  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  55  36  65  52  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      54  36  63  50  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  33  61  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  32  66  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        55  30  65  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 281002
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
402 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STARTING THE DAY OFF RATHER COLD WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S BY SUNRISE AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY SITS
OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TONIGHT. A WARMUP WITH ENSUE AS MOISTURE
LEVELS AND THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPING SAT AND SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS SPREADING NNE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH
NIGHTS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH FOR FOG
FORMATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY MONDAY. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THE FRONT SLOWS AND
APPEARS TO STALL OR MEANDER OVER NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA THRU
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  30  60  47  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    52  30  61  47  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  36  62  51  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  55  36  65  52  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      54  36  63  50  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  33  61  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  32  66  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        55  30  65  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 280939
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
339 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A DEEP DRY LAYER PREVAILS IN AN
UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE UNITED
STATES. IT HAS BEEN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE SKY WILL BE FREE OF CLOUDS
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH COOL SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 OVER
OUR COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT TODAY AND STAY AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FURTHER EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
DEEP DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL INTO THE MID AND LOWER 30S IN
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND LOWER 40S ALONG BEACHES. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO SEMI-ZONAL MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH ALL THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WE WILL WARM TO THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT BEING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEND A POLAR FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MIDSOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
AT THE DOORSTEP OF OUR FAR NW FORECAST AREA (FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL)
MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BRIEFLY PUSH INTO AREAS LIKE
BUTLER AND WAYNESBORO...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY PREVENT
ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THERE IS NO FORCING ALOFT FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
28.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES OF LESS THAN VFR ARE VERY LOW EXCEPT
POSSIBLE SMALL AREAS OF MIST IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MARSHES
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. THE FLATTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD RESULT IN QUICKLY WEAKENING OFFSHORE WINDS
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVER BAYS...
SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING IN THE SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REGIME WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
INTO MID MORNING TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF TODAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST
THEN EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND OPENING A WINDOW FOR POSSIBLE MARINE
FOG NEAR SHORE SUNDAY. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  44  68  54  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   58  49  67  55  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
DESTIN      56  47  65  55  70 /  00  05  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   56  33  68  46  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  58  35  69  51  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
CAMDEN      55  34  67  47  71 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   58  32  68  45  73 /  00  05  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 280939
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
339 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A DEEP DRY LAYER PREVAILS IN AN
UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE UNITED
STATES. IT HAS BEEN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE SKY WILL BE FREE OF CLOUDS
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH COOL SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 OVER
OUR COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT TODAY AND STAY AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FURTHER EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
DEEP DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL INTO THE MID AND LOWER 30S IN
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND LOWER 40S ALONG BEACHES. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO SEMI-ZONAL MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH ALL THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WE WILL WARM TO THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT BEING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEND A POLAR FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MIDSOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
AT THE DOORSTEP OF OUR FAR NW FORECAST AREA (FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL)
MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BRIEFLY PUSH INTO AREAS LIKE
BUTLER AND WAYNESBORO...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY PREVENT
ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THERE IS NO FORCING ALOFT FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
28.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES OF LESS THAN VFR ARE VERY LOW EXCEPT
POSSIBLE SMALL AREAS OF MIST IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MARSHES
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. THE FLATTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD RESULT IN QUICKLY WEAKENING OFFSHORE WINDS
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVER BAYS...
SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING IN THE SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REGIME WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
INTO MID MORNING TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF TODAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST
THEN EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND OPENING A WINDOW FOR POSSIBLE MARINE
FOG NEAR SHORE SUNDAY. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  44  68  54  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   58  49  67  55  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
DESTIN      56  47  65  55  70 /  00  05  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   56  33  68  46  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  58  35  69  51  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
CAMDEN      55  34  67  47  71 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   58  32  68  45  73 /  00  05  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 280939
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
339 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A DEEP DRY LAYER PREVAILS IN AN
UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE UNITED
STATES. IT HAS BEEN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE SKY WILL BE FREE OF CLOUDS
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH COOL SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 OVER
OUR COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT TODAY AND STAY AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FURTHER EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
DEEP DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL INTO THE MID AND LOWER 30S IN
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND LOWER 40S ALONG BEACHES. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO SEMI-ZONAL MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH ALL THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WE WILL WARM TO THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT BEING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEND A POLAR FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MIDSOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
AT THE DOORSTEP OF OUR FAR NW FORECAST AREA (FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL)
MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BRIEFLY PUSH INTO AREAS LIKE
BUTLER AND WAYNESBORO...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY PREVENT
ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THERE IS NO FORCING ALOFT FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
28.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES OF LESS THAN VFR ARE VERY LOW EXCEPT
POSSIBLE SMALL AREAS OF MIST IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MARSHES
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. THE FLATTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD RESULT IN QUICKLY WEAKENING OFFSHORE WINDS
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVER BAYS...
SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING IN THE SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REGIME WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
INTO MID MORNING TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF TODAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST
THEN EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND OPENING A WINDOW FOR POSSIBLE MARINE
FOG NEAR SHORE SUNDAY. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  44  68  54  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   58  49  67  55  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
DESTIN      56  47  65  55  70 /  00  05  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   56  33  68  46  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  58  35  69  51  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
CAMDEN      55  34  67  47  71 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   58  32  68  45  73 /  00  05  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 280939
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
339 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A DEEP DRY LAYER PREVAILS IN AN
UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE UNITED
STATES. IT HAS BEEN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE SKY WILL BE FREE OF CLOUDS
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH COOL SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 OVER
OUR COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT TODAY AND STAY AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FURTHER EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
DEEP DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL INTO THE MID AND LOWER 30S IN
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND LOWER 40S ALONG BEACHES. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO SEMI-ZONAL MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH ALL THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WE WILL WARM TO THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT BEING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEND A POLAR FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MIDSOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
AT THE DOORSTEP OF OUR FAR NW FORECAST AREA (FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL)
MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BRIEFLY PUSH INTO AREAS LIKE
BUTLER AND WAYNESBORO...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY PREVENT
ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THERE IS NO FORCING ALOFT FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
28.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES OF LESS THAN VFR ARE VERY LOW EXCEPT
POSSIBLE SMALL AREAS OF MIST IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MARSHES
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. THE FLATTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD RESULT IN QUICKLY WEAKENING OFFSHORE WINDS
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVER BAYS...
SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING IN THE SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REGIME WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
INTO MID MORNING TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF TODAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST
THEN EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND OPENING A WINDOW FOR POSSIBLE MARINE
FOG NEAR SHORE SUNDAY. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  44  68  54  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   58  49  67  55  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
DESTIN      56  47  65  55  70 /  00  05  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   56  33  68  46  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  58  35  69  51  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
CAMDEN      55  34  67  47  71 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   58  32  68  45  73 /  00  05  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 280546 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
28.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY NOON AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM NWS MOBILE. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SKIES
ARE SUNNY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH COOL
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE ONLY MANAGED TO
WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 OVER OUR AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT
SOUTHWARD...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
TIMES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT...AND WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY...SO WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BECOME
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO....AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. /21

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OVER THE FA...EVERYTHING IS
PRETTY STATIC....WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD...RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
ALSO...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FOG RETURNING TO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
A DENSE FOG EVENT...NO...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE
FORECAST PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING EAST OVER THE US/MEX BORDER...MOVES FROM OVER THE
LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX. WORKING IN
COMBINATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA...SHRA BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
FA...BUT AM EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN GENERALLY NW OF THE FA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING THE SURFACE
FRONT TOWARDS US MOVES OFF...THE FRONT STALLS NW OF THE FA...THEN
BEGINS TO WASH OUT. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHRA OVER NW-ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...BUT MOST OF THE FA REMAINS RAIN
FREE. TEMPS ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL CREATE A PLEASANT
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK FOR THE FA./

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A WEEK FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FA...STALLING IT JUST SOUTH OF
THE FA...ALONG WITH REMOVING ANY REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE GFS ADVERTISES THE BOUNDARY WASHING
OUT...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND STRETCHES SW. RESULT FOR
THE FORECAST...IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FOR MID WEEK...WITH A BIT
OF A DROP IN TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE
SURFACE FRONT WASHING OUT AND EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS
MAINTAINS AN EASTERLY FLOW...WITH A DRY...SEASONABLY WARM END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE IN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...
BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
FRIDAY...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST AND DIMINISH IN
SPEED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  59  42  69  53 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   36  58  43  68  55 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      38  57  43  65  55 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   31  56  32  68  46 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  29  58  34  68  48 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      30  57  35  68  48 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   31  58  29  68  44 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 280546 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
28.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY NOON AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM NWS MOBILE. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SKIES
ARE SUNNY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH COOL
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE ONLY MANAGED TO
WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 OVER OUR AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT
SOUTHWARD...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
TIMES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT...AND WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY...SO WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BECOME
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO....AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. /21

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OVER THE FA...EVERYTHING IS
PRETTY STATIC....WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD...RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
ALSO...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FOG RETURNING TO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
A DENSE FOG EVENT...NO...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE
FORECAST PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING EAST OVER THE US/MEX BORDER...MOVES FROM OVER THE
LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX. WORKING IN
COMBINATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA...SHRA BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
FA...BUT AM EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN GENERALLY NW OF THE FA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING THE SURFACE
FRONT TOWARDS US MOVES OFF...THE FRONT STALLS NW OF THE FA...THEN
BEGINS TO WASH OUT. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHRA OVER NW-ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...BUT MOST OF THE FA REMAINS RAIN
FREE. TEMPS ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL CREATE A PLEASANT
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK FOR THE FA./

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A WEEK FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FA...STALLING IT JUST SOUTH OF
THE FA...ALONG WITH REMOVING ANY REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE GFS ADVERTISES THE BOUNDARY WASHING
OUT...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND STRETCHES SW. RESULT FOR
THE FORECAST...IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FOR MID WEEK...WITH A BIT
OF A DROP IN TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE
SURFACE FRONT WASHING OUT AND EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS
MAINTAINS AN EASTERLY FLOW...WITH A DRY...SEASONABLY WARM END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE IN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...
BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
FRIDAY...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST AND DIMINISH IN
SPEED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  59  42  69  53 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   36  58  43  68  55 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      38  57  43  65  55 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   31  56  32  68  46 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  29  58  34  68  48 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      30  57  35  68  48 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   31  58  29  68  44 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 280531 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1131 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 850 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A COLDER NIGHT IS
ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. HOURLY TEMPS
WERE RUNNING A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD
COVER. EXPECTED WITH THE SKIES NOW CLEARING...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP
AND SHOULD GET TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE TAFS FOR THE 06Z UPDATED.
CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT...TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO GO SKC IN THE
TAFS BECAUSE THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW OR SCT LOW-MID CLOUDS FLOATING
AROUND OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10KT FOR FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280531 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1131 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 850 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A COLDER NIGHT IS
ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. HOURLY TEMPS
WERE RUNNING A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD
COVER. EXPECTED WITH THE SKIES NOW CLEARING...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP
AND SHOULD GET TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE TAFS FOR THE 06Z UPDATED.
CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT...TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO GO SKC IN THE
TAFS BECAUSE THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW OR SCT LOW-MID CLOUDS FLOATING
AROUND OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10KT FOR FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280531 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1131 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 850 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A COLDER NIGHT IS
ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. HOURLY TEMPS
WERE RUNNING A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD
COVER. EXPECTED WITH THE SKIES NOW CLEARING...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP
AND SHOULD GET TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE TAFS FOR THE 06Z UPDATED.
CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT...TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO GO SKC IN THE
TAFS BECAUSE THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW OR SCT LOW-MID CLOUDS FLOATING
AROUND OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10KT FOR FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 280531 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1131 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 850 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A COLDER NIGHT IS
ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. HOURLY TEMPS
WERE RUNNING A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD
COVER. EXPECTED WITH THE SKIES NOW CLEARING...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP
AND SHOULD GET TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE TAFS FOR THE 06Z UPDATED.
CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT...TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO GO SKC IN THE
TAFS BECAUSE THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW OR SCT LOW-MID CLOUDS FLOATING
AROUND OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10KT FOR FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 280527
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1127 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD QUITE RAPIDLY IN AREAS WHERE
THE WIND HAS CALMED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH RIGHT ON
THE HEELS OF COLD ADVECTION...THIS IS A NEARLY IDEAL SETUP FOR
READINGS TO DROP BELOW GUIDANCE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE CWA BY DAYBREAK...AND HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW OF THE BOTTOM END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  52  30  61  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    26  53  30  62  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  26  54  36  63  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  26  56  36  66  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      28  55  36  64  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  54  33  62  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  28  57  32  67  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        27  56  30  66  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 280527
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1127 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD QUITE RAPIDLY IN AREAS WHERE
THE WIND HAS CALMED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH RIGHT ON
THE HEELS OF COLD ADVECTION...THIS IS A NEARLY IDEAL SETUP FOR
READINGS TO DROP BELOW GUIDANCE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE CWA BY DAYBREAK...AND HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW OF THE BOTTOM END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  52  30  61  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    26  53  30  62  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  26  54  36  63  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  26  56  36  66  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      28  55  36  64  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  54  33  62  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  28  57  32  67  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        27  56  30  66  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280422
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1022 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD QUITE RAPIDLY IN AREAS WHERE
THE WIND HAS CALMED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH RIGHT ON
THE HEELS OF COLD ADVECTION...THIS IS A NEARLY IDEAL SETUP FOR
READINGS TO DROP BELOW GUIDANCE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE CWA BY DAYBREAK...AND HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW OF THE BOTTOM END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES ARND 4000 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES TO
THE EAST OF ALABAMA AFTER 15Z...SFC WINDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  52  30  61  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    26  53  30  62  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  26  54  36  63  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  26  56  36  66  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      28  55  36  64  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  54  33  62  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  28  57  32  67  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        27  56  30  66  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/58






000
FXUS64 KHUN 280250 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
850 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A COLDER NIGHT IS
ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. HOURLY TEMPS
WERE RUNNING A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD
COVER. EXPECTED WITH THE SKIES NOW CLEARING...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP
AND SHOULD GET TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 536 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...BKN/OVC CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING SO STARTED THE
TAFS OUT WITH SCT CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR SCT-FEW CIGS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE STILL 5-10KT AS OF 00Z BUT EXPECT THEM TO
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 221 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IS STREAMING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...KEEPING TEMPERATURE JUST A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...THOUGH STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH STRONG WAA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM.

WITH RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. GUIDANCE IS A BIT OFF IN THEIR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE. THE GFS BRING THE FRONT IN DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE...WITH THE MOISTURE
EXITING THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND THEN STALLS...BEFORE DISSIPATING
ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. GIVEN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE 50S...THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP JUST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS BETTER WORKED OUT.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 280250 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
850 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A COLDER NIGHT IS
ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. HOURLY TEMPS
WERE RUNNING A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD
COVER. EXPECTED WITH THE SKIES NOW CLEARING...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP
AND SHOULD GET TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 536 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...BKN/OVC CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING SO STARTED THE
TAFS OUT WITH SCT CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR SCT-FEW CIGS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE STILL 5-10KT AS OF 00Z BUT EXPECT THEM TO
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 221 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IS STREAMING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...KEEPING TEMPERATURE JUST A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...THOUGH STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH STRONG WAA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM.

WITH RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. GUIDANCE IS A BIT OFF IN THEIR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE. THE GFS BRING THE FRONT IN DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE...WITH THE MOISTURE
EXITING THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND THEN STALLS...BEFORE DISSIPATING
ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. GIVEN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE 50S...THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP JUST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS BETTER WORKED OUT.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 272341
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
541 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SLIDE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL TRY TO
HELP PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH HERE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS FRONT MIGHT GET (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) HUNG UP TO
OUR NORTH. BUT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL SUPPORT FOR THE IDEA THAT
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
EITHER WAY...THERE STILL DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A WHOLE LOT OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WILL
MAINTAIN THE 10-30 PERCENT POPS WE ALREADY HAD IN THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES ARND 4000 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES TO
THE EAST OF ALABAMA AFTER 15Z...SFC WINDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  52  31  61  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    26  53  33  62  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  28  54  36  63  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  29  56  36  66  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      29  55  36  64  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  54  34  62  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  29  57  33  67  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  56  33  66  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 272341
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
541 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SLIDE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL TRY TO
HELP PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH HERE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS FRONT MIGHT GET (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) HUNG UP TO
OUR NORTH. BUT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL SUPPORT FOR THE IDEA THAT
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
EITHER WAY...THERE STILL DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A WHOLE LOT OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WILL
MAINTAIN THE 10-30 PERCENT POPS WE ALREADY HAD IN THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES ARND 4000 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES TO
THE EAST OF ALABAMA AFTER 15Z...SFC WINDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  52  31  61  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    26  53  33  62  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  28  54  36  63  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  29  56  36  66  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      29  55  36  64  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  54  34  62  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  29  57  33  67  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  56  33  66  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 272341
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
541 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SLIDE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL TRY TO
HELP PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH HERE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS FRONT MIGHT GET (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) HUNG UP TO
OUR NORTH. BUT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL SUPPORT FOR THE IDEA THAT
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
EITHER WAY...THERE STILL DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A WHOLE LOT OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WILL
MAINTAIN THE 10-30 PERCENT POPS WE ALREADY HAD IN THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES ARND 4000 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES TO
THE EAST OF ALABAMA AFTER 15Z...SFC WINDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  52  31  61  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    26  53  33  62  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  28  54  36  63  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  29  56  36  66  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      29  55  36  64  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  54  34  62  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  29  57  33  67  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  56  33  66  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 272341
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
541 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SLIDE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL TRY TO
HELP PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH HERE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS FRONT MIGHT GET (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) HUNG UP TO
OUR NORTH. BUT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL SUPPORT FOR THE IDEA THAT
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
EITHER WAY...THERE STILL DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A WHOLE LOT OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WILL
MAINTAIN THE 10-30 PERCENT POPS WE ALREADY HAD IN THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES ARND 4000 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES TO
THE EAST OF ALABAMA AFTER 15Z...SFC WINDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  52  31  61  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    26  53  33  62  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  28  54  36  63  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  29  56  36  66  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      29  55  36  64  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  54  34  62  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  29  57  33  67  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  56  33  66  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 272336 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
536 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 221 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IS STREAMING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...KEEPING TEMPERATURE JUST A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...THOUGH STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH STRONG WAA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM.

WITH RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. GUIDANCE IS A BIT OFF IN THEIR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE. THE GFS BRING THE FRONT IN DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE...WITH THE MOISTURE
EXITING THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND THEN STALLS...BEFORE DISSIPATING
ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. GIVEN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE 50S...THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP JUST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS BETTER WORKED OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...BKN/OVC CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING SO STARTED THE
TAFS OUT WITH SCT CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR SCT-FEW CIGS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE STILL 5-10KT AS OF 00Z BUT EXPECT THEM TO
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 272149
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
349 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM NWS MOBILE. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SKIES
ARE SUNNY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH COOL
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE ONLY MANAGED TO
WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 OVER OUR AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT
SOUTHWARD...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
TIMES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT...AND WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY...SO WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BECOME
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO....AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. /21

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OVER THE FA...EVERYTHING IS
PRETTY STATIC....WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD...RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
ALSO...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FOG RETURNING TO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
A DENSE FOG EVENT...NO...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE
FORECAST PROGRESSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING EAST OVER THE US/MEX BORDER...MOVES FROM OVER THE
LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX. WORKING IN
COMBINATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA...SHRA BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
FA...BUT AM EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN GENERALLY NW OF THE FA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING THE SURFACE
FRONT TOWARDS US MOVES OFF...THE FRONT STALLS NW OF THE FA...THEN
BEGINS TO WASH OUT. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHRA OVER NW-ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...BUT MOST OF THE FA REMAINS RAIN
FREE. TEMPS ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL CREATE A PLEASANT
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK FOR THE FA./

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A WEEK FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FA...STALLING IT JUST SOUTH OF
THE FA...ALONG WITH REMOVING ANY REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE GFS ADVERTISES THE BOUNDARY WASHING
OUT...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND STRETCHES SW. RESULT FOR
THE FORECAST...IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FOR MID WEEK...WITH A BIT
OF A DROP IN TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE
SURFACE FRONT WASHING OUT AND EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS
MAINTAINS AN EASTERLY FLOW...WITH A DRY...SEASONABLY WARM END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
27.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS BY SUNSET. /21

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE IN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...
BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
FRIDAY...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST AND DIMINISH IN
SPEED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. /21


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  59  42  69  53 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   36  58  43  68  55 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      38  57  43  65  55 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   31  56  32  68  46 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  29  58  34  68  48 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      30  57  35  68  48 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   31  58  29  68  44 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 272149
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
349 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM NWS MOBILE. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SKIES
ARE SUNNY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH COOL
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE ONLY MANAGED TO
WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 OVER OUR AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT
SOUTHWARD...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
TIMES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT...AND WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY...SO WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BECOME
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO....AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. /21

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OVER THE FA...EVERYTHING IS
PRETTY STATIC....WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD...RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
ALSO...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FOG RETURNING TO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
A DENSE FOG EVENT...NO...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE
FORECAST PROGRESSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING EAST OVER THE US/MEX BORDER...MOVES FROM OVER THE
LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX. WORKING IN
COMBINATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA...SHRA BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
FA...BUT AM EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN GENERALLY NW OF THE FA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING THE SURFACE
FRONT TOWARDS US MOVES OFF...THE FRONT STALLS NW OF THE FA...THEN
BEGINS TO WASH OUT. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHRA OVER NW-ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...BUT MOST OF THE FA REMAINS RAIN
FREE. TEMPS ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL CREATE A PLEASANT
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK FOR THE FA./

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A WEEK FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FA...STALLING IT JUST SOUTH OF
THE FA...ALONG WITH REMOVING ANY REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE GFS ADVERTISES THE BOUNDARY WASHING
OUT...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND STRETCHES SW. RESULT FOR
THE FORECAST...IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FOR MID WEEK...WITH A BIT
OF A DROP IN TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE
SURFACE FRONT WASHING OUT AND EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS
MAINTAINS AN EASTERLY FLOW...WITH A DRY...SEASONABLY WARM END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
27.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS BY SUNSET. /21

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE IN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...
BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
FRIDAY...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST AND DIMINISH IN
SPEED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. /21


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  59  42  69  53 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   36  58  43  68  55 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      38  57  43  65  55 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   31  56  32  68  46 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  29  58  34  68  48 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      30  57  35  68  48 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   31  58  29  68  44 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 272149
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
349 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM NWS MOBILE. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SKIES
ARE SUNNY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH COOL
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE ONLY MANAGED TO
WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 OVER OUR AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT
SOUTHWARD...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
TIMES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT...AND WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY...SO WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BECOME
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO....AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. /21

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OVER THE FA...EVERYTHING IS
PRETTY STATIC....WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD...RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
ALSO...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FOG RETURNING TO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
A DENSE FOG EVENT...NO...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE
FORECAST PROGRESSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING EAST OVER THE US/MEX BORDER...MOVES FROM OVER THE
LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX. WORKING IN
COMBINATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA...SHRA BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
FA...BUT AM EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN GENERALLY NW OF THE FA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING THE SURFACE
FRONT TOWARDS US MOVES OFF...THE FRONT STALLS NW OF THE FA...THEN
BEGINS TO WASH OUT. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHRA OVER NW-ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...BUT MOST OF THE FA REMAINS RAIN
FREE. TEMPS ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL CREATE A PLEASANT
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK FOR THE FA./

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A WEEK FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FA...STALLING IT JUST SOUTH OF
THE FA...ALONG WITH REMOVING ANY REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE GFS ADVERTISES THE BOUNDARY WASHING
OUT...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND STRETCHES SW. RESULT FOR
THE FORECAST...IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FOR MID WEEK...WITH A BIT
OF A DROP IN TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE
SURFACE FRONT WASHING OUT AND EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS
MAINTAINS AN EASTERLY FLOW...WITH A DRY...SEASONABLY WARM END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
27.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS BY SUNSET. /21

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE IN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...
BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
FRIDAY...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST AND DIMINISH IN
SPEED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. /21


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  59  42  69  53 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   36  58  43  68  55 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      38  57  43  65  55 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   31  56  32  68  46 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  29  58  34  68  48 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      30  57  35  68  48 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   31  58  29  68  44 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 272149
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
349 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM NWS MOBILE. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SKIES
ARE SUNNY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH COOL
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE ONLY MANAGED TO
WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 OVER OUR AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT
SOUTHWARD...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
TIMES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT...AND WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY...SO WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BECOME
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO....AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. /21

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OVER THE FA...EVERYTHING IS
PRETTY STATIC....WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD...RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
ALSO...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FOG RETURNING TO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
A DENSE FOG EVENT...NO...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE
FORECAST PROGRESSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING EAST OVER THE US/MEX BORDER...MOVES FROM OVER THE
LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX. WORKING IN
COMBINATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA...SHRA BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
FA...BUT AM EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN GENERALLY NW OF THE FA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING THE SURFACE
FRONT TOWARDS US MOVES OFF...THE FRONT STALLS NW OF THE FA...THEN
BEGINS TO WASH OUT. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHRA OVER NW-ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...BUT MOST OF THE FA REMAINS RAIN
FREE. TEMPS ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL CREATE A PLEASANT
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK FOR THE FA./

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A WEEK FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FA...STALLING IT JUST SOUTH OF
THE FA...ALONG WITH REMOVING ANY REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE GFS ADVERTISES THE BOUNDARY WASHING
OUT...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND STRETCHES SW. RESULT FOR
THE FORECAST...IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FOR MID WEEK...WITH A BIT
OF A DROP IN TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE
SURFACE FRONT WASHING OUT AND EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS
MAINTAINS AN EASTERLY FLOW...WITH A DRY...SEASONABLY WARM END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
27.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS BY SUNSET. /21

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE IN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...
BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
FRIDAY...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST AND DIMINISH IN
SPEED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. /21


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  59  42  69  53 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   36  58  43  68  55 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      38  57  43  65  55 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   31  56  32  68  46 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  29  58  34  68  48 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      30  57  35  68  48 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   31  58  29  68  44 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 272108
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SLIDE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL TRY TO
HELP PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH HERE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS FRONT MIGHT GET (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) HUNG UP TO
OUR NORTH. BUT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL SUPPORT FOR THE IDEA THAT
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
EITHER WAY...THERE STILL DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A WHOLE LOT OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WILL
MAINTAIN THE 10-30 PERCENT POPS WE ALREADY HAD IN THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WILL GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY. AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THRU THE AREA...AN AREA OF LOWER
STRATO CUMULUS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WILL ADJUST THINKING A BIT AND KEEP THE CEILINGS VFR
AROUND 035...BECOMING CLEAR AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  52  31  61  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    26  53  33  62  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  28  54  36  63  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  29  56  36  66  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      29  55  36  64  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  54  34  62  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  29  57  33  67  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  56  33  66  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 272108
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SLIDE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL TRY TO
HELP PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH HERE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS FRONT MIGHT GET (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) HUNG UP TO
OUR NORTH. BUT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL SUPPORT FOR THE IDEA THAT
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
EITHER WAY...THERE STILL DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A WHOLE LOT OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WILL
MAINTAIN THE 10-30 PERCENT POPS WE ALREADY HAD IN THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WILL GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY. AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THRU THE AREA...AN AREA OF LOWER
STRATO CUMULUS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WILL ADJUST THINKING A BIT AND KEEP THE CEILINGS VFR
AROUND 035...BECOMING CLEAR AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  52  31  61  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    26  53  33  62  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  28  54  36  63  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  29  56  36  66  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      29  55  36  64  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  54  34  62  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  29  57  33  67  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  56  33  66  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 272021
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
221 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IS STREAMING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...KEEPING TEMPERATURE JUST A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...THOUGH STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH STRONG WAA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM.

WITH RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. GUIDANCE IS A BIT OFF IN THEIR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE. THE GFS BRING THE FRONT IN DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE...WITH THE MOISTURE
EXITING THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND THEN STALLS...BEFORE DISSIPATING
ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. GIVEN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE 50S...THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP JUST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS BETTER WORKED OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CATEGORY CIGS OF 030-040AGL ARE EXPECTED THRU
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THRU THE ENTIRE NIGHT UNTIL EXITING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NWLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT SELY ON FRIDAY MORNING. A BATCH
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    26  48  33  59 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        28  50  37  59 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      26  49  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  26  46  34  59 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   26  48  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    26  49  30  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 272021
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
221 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IS STREAMING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...KEEPING TEMPERATURE JUST A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...THOUGH STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH STRONG WAA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM.

WITH RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. GUIDANCE IS A BIT OFF IN THEIR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE. THE GFS BRING THE FRONT IN DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE...WITH THE MOISTURE
EXITING THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND THEN STALLS...BEFORE DISSIPATING
ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. GIVEN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE 50S...THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP JUST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS BETTER WORKED OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CATEGORY CIGS OF 030-040AGL ARE EXPECTED THRU
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THRU THE ENTIRE NIGHT UNTIL EXITING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NWLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT SELY ON FRIDAY MORNING. A BATCH
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    26  48  33  59 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        28  50  37  59 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      26  49  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  26  46  34  59 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   26  48  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    26  49  30  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271821
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1221 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

POST FRONTAL STRATO CUMULUS COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRIES CLEARING
THINGS OUT IN A HOUR OR TWO...WHICH I DO NOT NECESSARILY BUY INTO.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING SW TO NE AS THE MAIN TROUGH
PULLS OUT. SO SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS BUT HELD THINGS GENERALLY SCATTERED THERE.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER NORTH...DECREASED HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S
AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TRENDS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WILL GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY. AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THRU THE AREA...AN AREA OF LOWER
STRATO CUMULUS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WILL ADJUST THINKING A BIT AND KEEP THE CEILINGS VFR
AROUND 035...BECOMING CLEAR AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 409 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITED CENTRAL ALABAMA A COUPLE
HOURS AGO WITH THE MAIN TROUGH STILL POISED TO SWING THRU LATER
THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE EXITING CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE
OVER WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER COOL AND BREEZY
THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE STATE. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...IT WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST AREAS.

THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE FRIDAY WITH A NICE
WARMUP CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING UP BOTH SAT/SUN NIGHTS
EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE NE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA...KEEPING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MON INTO TUE AS A SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS STILL SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY 20-30 POPS FOR NOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
GREATLY BEYOND TUESDAY SO THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  25  51  30  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  26  51  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  26  52  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  46  28  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  28  53  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      50  28  52  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  28  55  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        54  28  54  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 271821
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1221 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

POST FRONTAL STRATO CUMULUS COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRIES CLEARING
THINGS OUT IN A HOUR OR TWO...WHICH I DO NOT NECESSARILY BUY INTO.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING SW TO NE AS THE MAIN TROUGH
PULLS OUT. SO SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS BUT HELD THINGS GENERALLY SCATTERED THERE.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER NORTH...DECREASED HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S
AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TRENDS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WILL GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY. AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THRU THE AREA...AN AREA OF LOWER
STRATO CUMULUS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WILL ADJUST THINKING A BIT AND KEEP THE CEILINGS VFR
AROUND 035...BECOMING CLEAR AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 409 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITED CENTRAL ALABAMA A COUPLE
HOURS AGO WITH THE MAIN TROUGH STILL POISED TO SWING THRU LATER
THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE EXITING CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE
OVER WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER COOL AND BREEZY
THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE STATE. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...IT WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST AREAS.

THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE FRIDAY WITH A NICE
WARMUP CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING UP BOTH SAT/SUN NIGHTS
EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE NE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA...KEEPING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MON INTO TUE AS A SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS STILL SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY 20-30 POPS FOR NOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
GREATLY BEYOND TUESDAY SO THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  25  51  30  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  26  51  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  26  52  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  46  28  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  28  53  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      50  28  52  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  28  55  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        54  28  54  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 271821
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1221 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

POST FRONTAL STRATO CUMULUS COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRIES CLEARING
THINGS OUT IN A HOUR OR TWO...WHICH I DO NOT NECESSARILY BUY INTO.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING SW TO NE AS THE MAIN TROUGH
PULLS OUT. SO SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS BUT HELD THINGS GENERALLY SCATTERED THERE.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER NORTH...DECREASED HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S
AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TRENDS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WILL GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY. AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THRU THE AREA...AN AREA OF LOWER
STRATO CUMULUS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WILL ADJUST THINKING A BIT AND KEEP THE CEILINGS VFR
AROUND 035...BECOMING CLEAR AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 409 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITED CENTRAL ALABAMA A COUPLE
HOURS AGO WITH THE MAIN TROUGH STILL POISED TO SWING THRU LATER
THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE EXITING CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE
OVER WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER COOL AND BREEZY
THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE STATE. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...IT WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST AREAS.

THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE FRIDAY WITH A NICE
WARMUP CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING UP BOTH SAT/SUN NIGHTS
EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE NE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA...KEEPING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MON INTO TUE AS A SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS STILL SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY 20-30 POPS FOR NOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
GREATLY BEYOND TUESDAY SO THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  25  51  30  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  26  51  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  26  52  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  46  28  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  28  53  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      50  28  52  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  28  55  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        54  28  54  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 271821
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1221 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

POST FRONTAL STRATO CUMULUS COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRIES CLEARING
THINGS OUT IN A HOUR OR TWO...WHICH I DO NOT NECESSARILY BUY INTO.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING SW TO NE AS THE MAIN TROUGH
PULLS OUT. SO SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS BUT HELD THINGS GENERALLY SCATTERED THERE.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER NORTH...DECREASED HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S
AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TRENDS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WILL GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY. AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THRU THE AREA...AN AREA OF LOWER
STRATO CUMULUS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WILL ADJUST THINKING A BIT AND KEEP THE CEILINGS VFR
AROUND 035...BECOMING CLEAR AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 409 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITED CENTRAL ALABAMA A COUPLE
HOURS AGO WITH THE MAIN TROUGH STILL POISED TO SWING THRU LATER
THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE EXITING CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE
OVER WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER COOL AND BREEZY
THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE STATE. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...IT WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST AREAS.

THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE FRIDAY WITH A NICE
WARMUP CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING UP BOTH SAT/SUN NIGHTS
EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE NE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA...KEEPING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MON INTO TUE AS A SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS STILL SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY 20-30 POPS FOR NOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
GREATLY BEYOND TUESDAY SO THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  25  51  30  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  26  51  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  26  52  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  46  28  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  28  53  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      50  28  52  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  28  55  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        54  28  54  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 271744 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1144 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
27.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS BY SUNSET. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...HAPPY THANKSGIVING! IT
WILL BE A CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
AS A DRY COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND BROUGHT A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND DRY AIR. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FAR INLAND WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT
TIMES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. THAT WILL DEFINITELY ADD AN
EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ALABAMA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND WITH LOW TO MID
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 34/JFB

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF WHICH
BECOMING POSITIONED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST. SUNNY
SKIES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...THE TRADITIONAL START OF THE CHRISTMAS
SHOPPING SEASON. HIGH TEMPERATURES...FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON
AVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND FRIDAY MORNING...BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY
BY MID AFTERNOON. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND BECOMING
MOSTLY CALM. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MODERATE BY SOME 10 DEGREES OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE COLDER AREAS REMAIN ALONG A LINE FROM
CAMDEN...EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO CRESTVIEW FLORIDA...AND POINTS
EAST...WHERE LOWS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S WILL BE FORECAST. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NORTHERN EXTENSION OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EASES MORE EASTWARD...SETTING UP FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...BUT HOLDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN...ALLOWS FOR SURFACE
BASED MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY RISE AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF DAYTIME...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THOUGH...NECESSARY FOR RAINFALL REMAINS AT A MINIMUM...SO A
RAINFREE WEEKEND IS MAINTAINED. CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE ON ITS WESTERN
EDGE...LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION IS QUITE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS AND COULD VERY WELL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH EACH NIGHT THEREAFTER
IN THE OUTLOOK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS SLIGHTLY...DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
POOL NORTHWARD...SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT THAT SINKS INTO THE MID
SOUTH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO NOT MAKE MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AREAWIDE...BEING
LOW (~10%).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...LIFT INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S
ON WEDNESDAY. KIND OF SPRING LIKE TO OPEN UP THE MONTH OF DECEMBER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...NORTH OF
THE COAST...AND UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS
BECOME BREEZY BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
18-20 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. 34/JFB

MARINE...WINDS OVER THE AL/NW FL GULF WATERS HAVE BEEN VERY STRONG
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BUOYS 42012 AND 42040
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN WEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...WHICH HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST...BUT DROPPING IN INTENSITY. STILL EXPECT
WINDS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM FOR THE GULF WATERS.
THE ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR MOBILE BAY/MS SOUND AS WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED. SEAS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. A
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  33  58  43  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   60  35  58  44  68 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  38  56  44  65 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   55  30  56  33  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  28  60  37  67 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      53  29  57  34  68 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   59  30  58  31  69 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 271744 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1144 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
27.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS BY SUNSET. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...HAPPY THANKSGIVING! IT
WILL BE A CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
AS A DRY COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND BROUGHT A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND DRY AIR. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FAR INLAND WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT
TIMES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. THAT WILL DEFINITELY ADD AN
EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ALABAMA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND WITH LOW TO MID
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 34/JFB

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF WHICH
BECOMING POSITIONED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST. SUNNY
SKIES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...THE TRADITIONAL START OF THE CHRISTMAS
SHOPPING SEASON. HIGH TEMPERATURES...FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON
AVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND FRIDAY MORNING...BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY
BY MID AFTERNOON. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND BECOMING
MOSTLY CALM. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MODERATE BY SOME 10 DEGREES OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE COLDER AREAS REMAIN ALONG A LINE FROM
CAMDEN...EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO CRESTVIEW FLORIDA...AND POINTS
EAST...WHERE LOWS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S WILL BE FORECAST. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NORTHERN EXTENSION OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EASES MORE EASTWARD...SETTING UP FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...BUT HOLDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN...ALLOWS FOR SURFACE
BASED MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY RISE AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF DAYTIME...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THOUGH...NECESSARY FOR RAINFALL REMAINS AT A MINIMUM...SO A
RAINFREE WEEKEND IS MAINTAINED. CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE ON ITS WESTERN
EDGE...LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION IS QUITE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS AND COULD VERY WELL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH EACH NIGHT THEREAFTER
IN THE OUTLOOK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS SLIGHTLY...DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
POOL NORTHWARD...SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT THAT SINKS INTO THE MID
SOUTH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO NOT MAKE MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AREAWIDE...BEING
LOW (~10%).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...LIFT INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S
ON WEDNESDAY. KIND OF SPRING LIKE TO OPEN UP THE MONTH OF DECEMBER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...NORTH OF
THE COAST...AND UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS
BECOME BREEZY BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
18-20 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. 34/JFB

MARINE...WINDS OVER THE AL/NW FL GULF WATERS HAVE BEEN VERY STRONG
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BUOYS 42012 AND 42040
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN WEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...WHICH HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST...BUT DROPPING IN INTENSITY. STILL EXPECT
WINDS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM FOR THE GULF WATERS.
THE ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR MOBILE BAY/MS SOUND AS WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED. SEAS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. A
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  33  58  43  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   60  35  58  44  68 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  38  56  44  65 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   55  30  56  33  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  28  60  37  67 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      53  29  57  34  68 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   59  30  58  31  69 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 271744 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1144 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
27.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS BY SUNSET. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...HAPPY THANKSGIVING! IT
WILL BE A CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
AS A DRY COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND BROUGHT A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND DRY AIR. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FAR INLAND WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT
TIMES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. THAT WILL DEFINITELY ADD AN
EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ALABAMA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND WITH LOW TO MID
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 34/JFB

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF WHICH
BECOMING POSITIONED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST. SUNNY
SKIES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...THE TRADITIONAL START OF THE CHRISTMAS
SHOPPING SEASON. HIGH TEMPERATURES...FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON
AVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND FRIDAY MORNING...BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY
BY MID AFTERNOON. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND BECOMING
MOSTLY CALM. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MODERATE BY SOME 10 DEGREES OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE COLDER AREAS REMAIN ALONG A LINE FROM
CAMDEN...EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO CRESTVIEW FLORIDA...AND POINTS
EAST...WHERE LOWS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S WILL BE FORECAST. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NORTHERN EXTENSION OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EASES MORE EASTWARD...SETTING UP FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...BUT HOLDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN...ALLOWS FOR SURFACE
BASED MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY RISE AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF DAYTIME...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THOUGH...NECESSARY FOR RAINFALL REMAINS AT A MINIMUM...SO A
RAINFREE WEEKEND IS MAINTAINED. CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE ON ITS WESTERN
EDGE...LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION IS QUITE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS AND COULD VERY WELL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH EACH NIGHT THEREAFTER
IN THE OUTLOOK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS SLIGHTLY...DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
POOL NORTHWARD...SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT THAT SINKS INTO THE MID
SOUTH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO NOT MAKE MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AREAWIDE...BEING
LOW (~10%).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...LIFT INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S
ON WEDNESDAY. KIND OF SPRING LIKE TO OPEN UP THE MONTH OF DECEMBER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...NORTH OF
THE COAST...AND UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS
BECOME BREEZY BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
18-20 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. 34/JFB

MARINE...WINDS OVER THE AL/NW FL GULF WATERS HAVE BEEN VERY STRONG
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BUOYS 42012 AND 42040
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN WEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...WHICH HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST...BUT DROPPING IN INTENSITY. STILL EXPECT
WINDS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM FOR THE GULF WATERS.
THE ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR MOBILE BAY/MS SOUND AS WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED. SEAS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. A
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  33  58  43  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   60  35  58  44  68 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  38  56  44  65 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   55  30  56  33  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  28  60  37  67 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      53  29  57  34  68 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   59  30  58  31  69 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 271744 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1144 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
27.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS BY SUNSET. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...HAPPY THANKSGIVING! IT
WILL BE A CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
AS A DRY COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND BROUGHT A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND DRY AIR. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FAR INLAND WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT
TIMES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. THAT WILL DEFINITELY ADD AN
EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ALABAMA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND WITH LOW TO MID
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 34/JFB

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF WHICH
BECOMING POSITIONED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST. SUNNY
SKIES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...THE TRADITIONAL START OF THE CHRISTMAS
SHOPPING SEASON. HIGH TEMPERATURES...FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON
AVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND FRIDAY MORNING...BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY
BY MID AFTERNOON. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND BECOMING
MOSTLY CALM. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MODERATE BY SOME 10 DEGREES OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE COLDER AREAS REMAIN ALONG A LINE FROM
CAMDEN...EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO CRESTVIEW FLORIDA...AND POINTS
EAST...WHERE LOWS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S WILL BE FORECAST. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NORTHERN EXTENSION OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EASES MORE EASTWARD...SETTING UP FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...BUT HOLDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN...ALLOWS FOR SURFACE
BASED MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY RISE AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF DAYTIME...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THOUGH...NECESSARY FOR RAINFALL REMAINS AT A MINIMUM...SO A
RAINFREE WEEKEND IS MAINTAINED. CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE ON ITS WESTERN
EDGE...LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION IS QUITE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS AND COULD VERY WELL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH EACH NIGHT THEREAFTER
IN THE OUTLOOK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS SLIGHTLY...DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
POOL NORTHWARD...SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT THAT SINKS INTO THE MID
SOUTH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO NOT MAKE MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AREAWIDE...BEING
LOW (~10%).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...LIFT INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S
ON WEDNESDAY. KIND OF SPRING LIKE TO OPEN UP THE MONTH OF DECEMBER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...NORTH OF
THE COAST...AND UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS
BECOME BREEZY BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
18-20 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. 34/JFB

MARINE...WINDS OVER THE AL/NW FL GULF WATERS HAVE BEEN VERY STRONG
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BUOYS 42012 AND 42040
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN WEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...WHICH HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST...BUT DROPPING IN INTENSITY. STILL EXPECT
WINDS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM FOR THE GULF WATERS.
THE ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR MOBILE BAY/MS SOUND AS WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED. SEAS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. A
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  33  58  43  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   60  35  58  44  68 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  38  56  44  65 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   55  30  56  33  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  28  60  37  67 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      53  29  57  34  68 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   59  30  58  31  69 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 271720 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1120 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 755 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
A COUPLE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE TRACKING SSEWD THRU SRN
TN AND NERN AL AND A FEW TRAILING INTO MIDDLE TN. THE 12Z RAOB AT
OHX SUGGESTS A CONTINUED CHC OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN EARLY.
SFC AND GROUND TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY AS CURRENT VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD EXTENT N-NW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CATEGORY CIGS OF 030-040AGL ARE EXPECTED THRU
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THRU THE ENTIRE NIGHT UNTIL EXITING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NWLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT SELY ON FRIDAY MORNING. A BATCH
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271720 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1120 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 755 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
A COUPLE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE TRACKING SSEWD THRU SRN
TN AND NERN AL AND A FEW TRAILING INTO MIDDLE TN. THE 12Z RAOB AT
OHX SUGGESTS A CONTINUED CHC OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN EARLY.
SFC AND GROUND TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY AS CURRENT VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD EXTENT N-NW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CATEGORY CIGS OF 030-040AGL ARE EXPECTED THRU
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THRU THE ENTIRE NIGHT UNTIL EXITING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NWLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT SELY ON FRIDAY MORNING. A BATCH
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271720 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1120 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 755 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
A COUPLE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE TRACKING SSEWD THRU SRN
TN AND NERN AL AND A FEW TRAILING INTO MIDDLE TN. THE 12Z RAOB AT
OHX SUGGESTS A CONTINUED CHC OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN EARLY.
SFC AND GROUND TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY AS CURRENT VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD EXTENT N-NW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CATEGORY CIGS OF 030-040AGL ARE EXPECTED THRU
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THRU THE ENTIRE NIGHT UNTIL EXITING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NWLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT SELY ON FRIDAY MORNING. A BATCH
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271720 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1120 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 755 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
A COUPLE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE TRACKING SSEWD THRU SRN
TN AND NERN AL AND A FEW TRAILING INTO MIDDLE TN. THE 12Z RAOB AT
OHX SUGGESTS A CONTINUED CHC OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN EARLY.
SFC AND GROUND TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY AS CURRENT VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD EXTENT N-NW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CATEGORY CIGS OF 030-040AGL ARE EXPECTED THRU
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THRU THE ENTIRE NIGHT UNTIL EXITING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NWLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT SELY ON FRIDAY MORNING. A BATCH
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271355 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
755 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD RAIN WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND EXPAND A BIT
FURTHER WEST.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE TRACKING SSEWD THRU SRN
TN AND NERN AL AND A FEW TRAILING INTO MIDDLE TN. THE 12Z RAOB AT
OHX SUGGESTS A CONTINUED CHC OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN EARLY.
SFC AND GROUND TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY AS CURRENT VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD EXTENT N-NW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED WELL TO THE EAST OF
BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH WNW FLOW IN PLACE AND SCT
STRATOCU ARND 3500 FT. A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES BTWN
27/13-14Z. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 12G20 KTS IN WAKE OF THE
SECONDARY FRONT WITH THICKER STRATUS BUILDING INTO REGION. EXPECT
PREVAILING CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE THRU 17Z...BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2500 FT THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TREND SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 28/00Z...THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT STRATUS MAY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LGT/VRBL WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271355 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
755 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD RAIN WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND EXPAND A BIT
FURTHER WEST.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE TRACKING SSEWD THRU SRN
TN AND NERN AL AND A FEW TRAILING INTO MIDDLE TN. THE 12Z RAOB AT
OHX SUGGESTS A CONTINUED CHC OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN EARLY.
SFC AND GROUND TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY AS CURRENT VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD EXTENT N-NW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED WELL TO THE EAST OF
BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH WNW FLOW IN PLACE AND SCT
STRATOCU ARND 3500 FT. A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES BTWN
27/13-14Z. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 12G20 KTS IN WAKE OF THE
SECONDARY FRONT WITH THICKER STRATUS BUILDING INTO REGION. EXPECT
PREVAILING CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE THRU 17Z...BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2500 FT THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TREND SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 28/00Z...THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT STRATUS MAY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LGT/VRBL WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271158
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM (THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT)...
/ISSUED 411 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING A BAND OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TENNESSEE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED LIFT
FROM UPSLOPE. AS THE BAND OF PRECIP ENTERS OUR AREA TEMPERATURES AND
ESPECIALLY WET BULB VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
THE COMBINATION OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS JACKSON...DE KALB AND OUR
TENNESSEE ZONES THROUGH 18Z. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
INTENSITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE
FREEZING.

CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN A BIT FROM THE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
QUICKLY AND EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES WARM TO LOW TO MID
60S BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ALL
AREAS FOR MONDAY.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT
OUT LATE NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ENDED UP GOING WITH A BIT OF
A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED WELL TO THE EAST OF
BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH WNW FLOW IN PLACE AND SCT
STRATOCU ARND 3500 FT. A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES BTWN
27/13-14Z. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 12G20 KTS IN WAKE OF THE
SECONDARY FRONT WITH THICKER STRATUS BUILDING INTO REGION. EXPECT
PREVAILING CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE THRU 17Z...BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2500 FT THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TREND SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 28/00Z...THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT STRATUS MAY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LGT/VRBL WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271158
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM (THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT)...
/ISSUED 411 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING A BAND OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TENNESSEE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED LIFT
FROM UPSLOPE. AS THE BAND OF PRECIP ENTERS OUR AREA TEMPERATURES AND
ESPECIALLY WET BULB VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
THE COMBINATION OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS JACKSON...DE KALB AND OUR
TENNESSEE ZONES THROUGH 18Z. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
INTENSITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE
FREEZING.

CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN A BIT FROM THE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
QUICKLY AND EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES WARM TO LOW TO MID
60S BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ALL
AREAS FOR MONDAY.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT
OUT LATE NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ENDED UP GOING WITH A BIT OF
A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED WELL TO THE EAST OF
BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH WNW FLOW IN PLACE AND SCT
STRATOCU ARND 3500 FT. A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES BTWN
27/13-14Z. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 12G20 KTS IN WAKE OF THE
SECONDARY FRONT WITH THICKER STRATUS BUILDING INTO REGION. EXPECT
PREVAILING CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE THRU 17Z...BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2500 FT THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TREND SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 28/00Z...THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT STRATUS MAY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LGT/VRBL WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 271143
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
543 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITED CENTRAL ALABAMA A COUPLE
HOURS AGO WITH THE MAIN TROUGH STILL POISED TO SWING THRU LATER
THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE EXITING CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE
OVER WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER COOL AND BREEZY
THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE STATE. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...IT WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST AREAS.

THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE FRIDAY WITH A NICE
WARMUP CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING UP BOTH SAT/SUN NIGHTS
EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE NE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA...KEEPING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MON INTO TUE AS A SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS STILL SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY 20-30 POPS FOR NOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
GREATLY BEYOND TUESDAY SO THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THRU THE AREA...AN AREA OF LOWER STRATUS WILL PUSH
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. LOOKING UPSTREAM...CIGS VARY GREATLY. TO THE
IMMEDIATE NORTH...CIGS ARE 2500-4000FT AGL. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN CIG HEIGHT AFTER SUNRISE...AND WILL KEEP CIGS ABOVE MVFR FOR NOW.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     45  25  51  30  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    46  26  51  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  26  52  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  49  28  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  28  53  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      49  28  52  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  52  28  55  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        53  28  54  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 271011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
411 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT)...
AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING A BAND OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TENNESSEE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED LIFT
FROM UPSLOPE. AS THE BAND OF PRECIP ENTERS OUR AREA TEMPERATURES AND
ESPECIALLY WET BULB VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
THE COMBINATION OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS JACKSON...DE KALB AND OUR
TENNESSEE ZONES THROUGH 18Z. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
INTENSITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE
FREEZING.

CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN A BIT FROM THE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
QUICKLY AND EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES WARM TO LOW TO MID
60S BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ALL
AREAS FOR MONDAY.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT
OUT LATE NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ENDED UP GOING WITH A BIT OF
A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
PASSED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. AS WELL...THE 5-7KFT CIGS HAVE
MOVED EAST LEAVING CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. INITIALLY THOUGHT LOWER
CLOUDS...2-3KFT WOULD MOVE BACK IN BY NOW BUT HAVE MOVED BACK THAT
TIMING TO 11-12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT NW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    43  25  50  36 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        44  25  51  37 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      42  25  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  42  25  47  35 /  20   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  25  50  33 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    44  26  49  32 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
411 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT)...
AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING A BAND OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TENNESSEE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED LIFT
FROM UPSLOPE. AS THE BAND OF PRECIP ENTERS OUR AREA TEMPERATURES AND
ESPECIALLY WET BULB VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
THE COMBINATION OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS JACKSON...DE KALB AND OUR
TENNESSEE ZONES THROUGH 18Z. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
INTENSITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE
FREEZING.

CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN A BIT FROM THE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
QUICKLY AND EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES WARM TO LOW TO MID
60S BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ALL
AREAS FOR MONDAY.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT
OUT LATE NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ENDED UP GOING WITH A BIT OF
A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
PASSED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. AS WELL...THE 5-7KFT CIGS HAVE
MOVED EAST LEAVING CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. INITIALLY THOUGHT LOWER
CLOUDS...2-3KFT WOULD MOVE BACK IN BY NOW BUT HAVE MOVED BACK THAT
TIMING TO 11-12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT NW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    43  25  50  36 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        44  25  51  37 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      42  25  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  42  25  47  35 /  20   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  25  50  33 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    44  26  49  32 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
411 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT)...
AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING A BAND OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TENNESSEE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED LIFT
FROM UPSLOPE. AS THE BAND OF PRECIP ENTERS OUR AREA TEMPERATURES AND
ESPECIALLY WET BULB VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
THE COMBINATION OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS JACKSON...DE KALB AND OUR
TENNESSEE ZONES THROUGH 18Z. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
INTENSITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE
FREEZING.

CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN A BIT FROM THE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
QUICKLY AND EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES WARM TO LOW TO MID
60S BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ALL
AREAS FOR MONDAY.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT
OUT LATE NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ENDED UP GOING WITH A BIT OF
A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
PASSED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. AS WELL...THE 5-7KFT CIGS HAVE
MOVED EAST LEAVING CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. INITIALLY THOUGHT LOWER
CLOUDS...2-3KFT WOULD MOVE BACK IN BY NOW BUT HAVE MOVED BACK THAT
TIMING TO 11-12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT NW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    43  25  50  36 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        44  25  51  37 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      42  25  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  42  25  47  35 /  20   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  25  50  33 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    44  26  49  32 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
411 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT)...
AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING A BAND OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TENNESSEE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED LIFT
FROM UPSLOPE. AS THE BAND OF PRECIP ENTERS OUR AREA TEMPERATURES AND
ESPECIALLY WET BULB VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
THE COMBINATION OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS JACKSON...DE KALB AND OUR
TENNESSEE ZONES THROUGH 18Z. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
INTENSITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE
FREEZING.

CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN A BIT FROM THE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
QUICKLY AND EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES WARM TO LOW TO MID
60S BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ALL
AREAS FOR MONDAY.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT
OUT LATE NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ENDED UP GOING WITH A BIT OF
A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
PASSED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. AS WELL...THE 5-7KFT CIGS HAVE
MOVED EAST LEAVING CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. INITIALLY THOUGHT LOWER
CLOUDS...2-3KFT WOULD MOVE BACK IN BY NOW BUT HAVE MOVED BACK THAT
TIMING TO 11-12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT NW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    43  25  50  36 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        44  25  51  37 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      42  25  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  42  25  47  35 /  20   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  25  50  33 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    44  26  49  32 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
411 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT)...
AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING A BAND OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TENNESSEE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED LIFT
FROM UPSLOPE. AS THE BAND OF PRECIP ENTERS OUR AREA TEMPERATURES AND
ESPECIALLY WET BULB VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
THE COMBINATION OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS JACKSON...DE KALB AND OUR
TENNESSEE ZONES THROUGH 18Z. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
INTENSITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE
FREEZING.

CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN A BIT FROM THE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
QUICKLY AND EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES WARM TO LOW TO MID
60S BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ALL
AREAS FOR MONDAY.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT
OUT LATE NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ENDED UP GOING WITH A BIT OF
A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
PASSED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. AS WELL...THE 5-7KFT CIGS HAVE
MOVED EAST LEAVING CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. INITIALLY THOUGHT LOWER
CLOUDS...2-3KFT WOULD MOVE BACK IN BY NOW BUT HAVE MOVED BACK THAT
TIMING TO 11-12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT NW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    43  25  50  36 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        44  25  51  37 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      42  25  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  42  25  47  35 /  20   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  25  50  33 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    44  26  49  32 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
411 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT)...
AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING A BAND OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TENNESSEE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED LIFT
FROM UPSLOPE. AS THE BAND OF PRECIP ENTERS OUR AREA TEMPERATURES AND
ESPECIALLY WET BULB VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
THE COMBINATION OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS JACKSON...DE KALB AND OUR
TENNESSEE ZONES THROUGH 18Z. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
INTENSITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE
FREEZING.

CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN A BIT FROM THE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
QUICKLY AND EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES WARM TO LOW TO MID
60S BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ALL
AREAS FOR MONDAY.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT
OUT LATE NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ENDED UP GOING WITH A BIT OF
A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
PASSED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. AS WELL...THE 5-7KFT CIGS HAVE
MOVED EAST LEAVING CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. INITIALLY THOUGHT LOWER
CLOUDS...2-3KFT WOULD MOVE BACK IN BY NOW BUT HAVE MOVED BACK THAT
TIMING TO 11-12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT NW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    43  25  50  36 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        44  25  51  37 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      42  25  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  42  25  47  35 /  20   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  25  50  33 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    44  26  49  32 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271009
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
409 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITED CENTRAL ALABAMA A COUPLE
HOURS AGO WITH THE MAIN TROUGH STILL POISED TO SWING THRU LATER
THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE EXITING CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE
OVER WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER COOL AND BREEZY
THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE STATE. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...IT WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST AREAS.

THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE FRIDAY WITH A NICE
WARMUP CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING UP BOTH SAT/SUN NIGHTS
EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE NE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA...KEEPING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MON INTO TUE AS A SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS STILL SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY 20-30 POPS FOR NOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
GREATLY BEYOND TUESDAY SO THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE INITIAL FROPA HAS MOVED THRU MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EXCEPT
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE WEST THRU 15Z AND THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z. AS THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF ROTATES THRU THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...
AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...BUT CIGS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     45  25  51  30  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    46  26  51  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  26  52  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  49  28  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  28  53  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      49  28  52  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  52  28  55  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        53  28  54  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271009
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
409 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITED CENTRAL ALABAMA A COUPLE
HOURS AGO WITH THE MAIN TROUGH STILL POISED TO SWING THRU LATER
THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE EXITING CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE
OVER WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER COOL AND BREEZY
THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE STATE. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...IT WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST AREAS.

THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE FRIDAY WITH A NICE
WARMUP CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING UP BOTH SAT/SUN NIGHTS
EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE NE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA...KEEPING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MON INTO TUE AS A SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS STILL SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY 20-30 POPS FOR NOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
GREATLY BEYOND TUESDAY SO THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE INITIAL FROPA HAS MOVED THRU MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EXCEPT
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE WEST THRU 15Z AND THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z. AS THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF ROTATES THRU THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...
AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...BUT CIGS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     45  25  51  30  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    46  26  51  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  26  52  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  49  28  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  28  53  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      49  28  52  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  52  28  55  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        53  28  54  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271009
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
409 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITED CENTRAL ALABAMA A COUPLE
HOURS AGO WITH THE MAIN TROUGH STILL POISED TO SWING THRU LATER
THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE EXITING CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE
OVER WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER COOL AND BREEZY
THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE STATE. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...IT WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST AREAS.

THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE FRIDAY WITH A NICE
WARMUP CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING UP BOTH SAT/SUN NIGHTS
EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE NE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA...KEEPING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MON INTO TUE AS A SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS STILL SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY 20-30 POPS FOR NOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
GREATLY BEYOND TUESDAY SO THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE INITIAL FROPA HAS MOVED THRU MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EXCEPT
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE WEST THRU 15Z AND THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z. AS THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF ROTATES THRU THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...
AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...BUT CIGS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     45  25  51  30  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    46  26  51  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  46  26  52  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  49  28  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      47  28  53  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      49  28  52  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  52  28  55  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        53  28  54  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 270940
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
340 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...HAPPY THANKSGIVING! IT
WILL BE A CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
AS A DRY COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND BROUGHT A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND DRY AIR. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FAR INLAND WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT
TIMES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. THAT WILL DEFINITELY ADD AN
EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ALABAMA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND WITH LOW TO MID
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 34/JFB

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF WHICH
BECOMING POSITIONED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST. SUNNY
SKIES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...THE TRADITIONAL START OF THE CHRISTMAS
SHOPPING SEASON. HIGH TEMPERATURES...FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON
AVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND FRIDAY MORNING...BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY
BY MID AFTERNOON. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND BECOMING
MOSTLY CALM. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MODERATE BY SOME 10 DEGREES OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE COLDER AREAS REMAIN ALONG A LINE FROM
CAMDEN...EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO CRESTVIEW FLORIDA...AND POINTS
EAST...WHERE LOWS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S WILL BE FORECAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NORTHERN EXTENSION OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EASES MORE EASTWARD...SETTING UP FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...BUT HOLDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN...ALLOWS FOR SURFACE
BASED MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY RISE AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF DAYTIME...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THOUGH...NECESSARY FOR RAINFALL REMAINS AT A MINIMUM...SO A
RAINFREE WEEKEND IS MAINTAINED. CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE ON ITS WESTERN
EDGE...LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION IS QUITE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS AND COULD VERY WELL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH EACH NIGHT THEREAFTER
IN THE OUTLOOK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS SLIGHTLY...DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
POOL NORTHWARD...SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT THAT SINKS INTO THE MID
SOUTH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO NOT MAKE MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AREAWIDE...BEING
LOW (~10%).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...LIFT INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S
ON WEDNESDAY. KIND OF SPRING LIKE TO OPEN UP THE MONTH OF DECEMBER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...NORTH OF
THE COAST...AND UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS
BECOME BREEZY BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
18-20 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE AL/NW FL GULF WATERS HAVE BEEN VERY STRONG
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BUOYS 42012 AND 42040
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN WEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...WHICH HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST...BUT DROPPING IN INTENSITY. STILL EXPECT
WINDS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM FOR THE GULF WATERS.
THE ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR MOBILE BAY/MS SOUND AS WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED. SEAS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. A
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 34/JFB


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  33  58  43  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   60  35  58  44  68 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  38  56  44  65 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   55  30  56  33  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  28  60  37  67 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      53  29  57  34  68 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   59  30  58  31  69 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$









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