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000
FXUS64 KHUN 081141
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 306 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/
UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH TWO CDFNTS HEADING OUR
WAY. THE FIRST CDFNT EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN MS ATTM...WHILE THE SECOND
CDFNT (WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND IT) IS NOW OVER NRN MO.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO SPIN SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME WINTER WX BEGINNING TODAY THRU TUESDAY
AFTN.

FOR TODAY THE FIRST CDFNT WILL PASS THRU THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPS BY THE AFTN FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 40S THIS AFTN...STILL SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AS SHOWN BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THE
PROBLEM IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR SNOW AND THE AREAL COVERAGE.
MODELS SHOW SCT SNOW POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
THE BEST CHC OVER NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN. THE BEST TIMING OF
SNOW IS ALSO A LITTLE TRICKY BUT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z TONIGHT
THRU TUESDAY EVENING. ATTM NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ANYWHERE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ARND ONE INCH OF SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER SRN MID TN AND EXTREME NERN AL BY TUESDAY AFTN.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ONE HALF OF AN
INCH OR LESS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ATTM BUT WILL
ISSUE A SPS LATER THIS MRNG. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER WX STATEMENTS OR
UPGRADES.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE TN
VALLEY TAKING THE CHC OF PCPN WITH IT. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY...THE TN VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW THRU THIS
TIMEFRAME. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO PCPN WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. THERE COULD BE A FLY IN THE OINTMENT ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT PCPN AS A WEAK CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED ATTM AND IT IS ALSO SO FAR OUT IN THE
FCST THAT WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN ON FRIDAY FOR NOW.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OUT IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO LEAVING CLEAR SKIES UNTIL 15-16Z WHEN THE NEXT BAND
OF CLOUDS APPROACH. WINDS WILL GUST 15-20KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND FALL TO
AROUND 3KFT AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY...MIXING
WITH SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN TO ALL SNOW AFTER SUNSET.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS BUT THE TERMINALS
COULD SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW ANY TIME AFTER 00Z. CANNOT PINPOINT
THE TIME FRAME FOR THESE SHOWERS SO WILL KEEP -SHSN IN THE PREVAILING
GROUP FROM 00-12Z AT THIS TIME. LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 081141
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 306 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/
UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH TWO CDFNTS HEADING OUR
WAY. THE FIRST CDFNT EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN MS ATTM...WHILE THE SECOND
CDFNT (WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND IT) IS NOW OVER NRN MO.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO SPIN SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME WINTER WX BEGINNING TODAY THRU TUESDAY
AFTN.

FOR TODAY THE FIRST CDFNT WILL PASS THRU THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPS BY THE AFTN FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 40S THIS AFTN...STILL SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AS SHOWN BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THE
PROBLEM IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR SNOW AND THE AREAL COVERAGE.
MODELS SHOW SCT SNOW POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
THE BEST CHC OVER NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN. THE BEST TIMING OF
SNOW IS ALSO A LITTLE TRICKY BUT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z TONIGHT
THRU TUESDAY EVENING. ATTM NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ANYWHERE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ARND ONE INCH OF SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER SRN MID TN AND EXTREME NERN AL BY TUESDAY AFTN.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ONE HALF OF AN
INCH OR LESS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ATTM BUT WILL
ISSUE A SPS LATER THIS MRNG. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER WX STATEMENTS OR
UPGRADES.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE TN
VALLEY TAKING THE CHC OF PCPN WITH IT. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY...THE TN VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW THRU THIS
TIMEFRAME. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO PCPN WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. THERE COULD BE A FLY IN THE OINTMENT ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT PCPN AS A WEAK CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED ATTM AND IT IS ALSO SO FAR OUT IN THE
FCST THAT WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN ON FRIDAY FOR NOW.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OUT IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO LEAVING CLEAR SKIES UNTIL 15-16Z WHEN THE NEXT BAND
OF CLOUDS APPROACH. WINDS WILL GUST 15-20KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND FALL TO
AROUND 3KFT AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY...MIXING
WITH SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN TO ALL SNOW AFTER SUNSET.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS BUT THE TERMINALS
COULD SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW ANY TIME AFTER 00Z. CANNOT PINPOINT
THE TIME FRAME FOR THESE SHOWERS SO WILL KEEP -SHSN IN THE PREVAILING
GROUP FROM 00-12Z AT THIS TIME. LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 081141
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 306 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/
UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH TWO CDFNTS HEADING OUR
WAY. THE FIRST CDFNT EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN MS ATTM...WHILE THE SECOND
CDFNT (WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND IT) IS NOW OVER NRN MO.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO SPIN SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME WINTER WX BEGINNING TODAY THRU TUESDAY
AFTN.

FOR TODAY THE FIRST CDFNT WILL PASS THRU THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPS BY THE AFTN FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 40S THIS AFTN...STILL SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AS SHOWN BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THE
PROBLEM IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR SNOW AND THE AREAL COVERAGE.
MODELS SHOW SCT SNOW POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
THE BEST CHC OVER NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN. THE BEST TIMING OF
SNOW IS ALSO A LITTLE TRICKY BUT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z TONIGHT
THRU TUESDAY EVENING. ATTM NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ANYWHERE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ARND ONE INCH OF SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER SRN MID TN AND EXTREME NERN AL BY TUESDAY AFTN.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ONE HALF OF AN
INCH OR LESS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ATTM BUT WILL
ISSUE A SPS LATER THIS MRNG. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER WX STATEMENTS OR
UPGRADES.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE TN
VALLEY TAKING THE CHC OF PCPN WITH IT. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY...THE TN VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW THRU THIS
TIMEFRAME. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO PCPN WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. THERE COULD BE A FLY IN THE OINTMENT ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT PCPN AS A WEAK CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED ATTM AND IT IS ALSO SO FAR OUT IN THE
FCST THAT WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN ON FRIDAY FOR NOW.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OUT IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO LEAVING CLEAR SKIES UNTIL 15-16Z WHEN THE NEXT BAND
OF CLOUDS APPROACH. WINDS WILL GUST 15-20KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND FALL TO
AROUND 3KFT AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY...MIXING
WITH SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN TO ALL SNOW AFTER SUNSET.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS BUT THE TERMINALS
COULD SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW ANY TIME AFTER 00Z. CANNOT PINPOINT
THE TIME FRAME FOR THESE SHOWERS SO WILL KEEP -SHSN IN THE PREVAILING
GROUP FROM 00-12Z AT THIS TIME. LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 081135
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES...WITH THE NORTH
STAYING IN THE 40S AND THE SOUTH RISING INTO THE 50S. WE SHOULD
START TO SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP BY NOON AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THAT IS WHEN THE FUN BEGINS FOR THIS FORECAST. THE AIRMASS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL BE A VERY COLD AIRMASS ALOFT AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO AS PRECIPITATION MOVES
INTO OR GENERATES IN THE AREA...IT WILL BE FROZEN ALOFT AND THEN
MOVE DOWN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SHOWERY CONVECTION SETUP THAT APPEARS
TO BE IN PLACE ANY SHOWER SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING THE COLDER AIR
DOWN ALONG WITH IT SO THE SNOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE
ONCE IT GETS GOING. QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE CAN THE PRECIPITATION
START BY SUNSET OR WILL IT BEGIN AFTER SUNSET.

THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PRECIPITATION DOWN A TOUCH SO WILL BEGIN
THE SWITCH OVER BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM IN THE NORTH AND THEN SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES ON. THE GOOD THING WE
HAVE GOING IS THAT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL DROP
TO FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 9 TO 10 PM SO ANY SNOW BAND
THAT DEVELOPS AFTER THIS TIME WILL HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO
STICK TO GRASSY SURFACES...CAR TOPS...AND HIGHER ELEVATED
SURFACES. IT IS GOING TO REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT
EXACTLY WHICH AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANYTHING MORE
THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH SO WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION IN THE HWO
FOR NOW. WITH THAT SAID...AT THIS TIME THE HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE BEST TIME FRAME TO BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM ACROSS
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...WE
WILL SEE WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE MONITORED. THESE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD HELP BLOW ANY SNOW AROUND AND MAY MAKE ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EVEN MORE UNLIKELY.

16

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ON TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED FURTHER AS A SECOND COLD
PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LOW WILL CYCLE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN EASTERN CONUS AND CONTINUE TO
GIVE US THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERY ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DECREASES IN INTENSITY AND
BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION. SO ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW OF MUCH ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR ANY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

A TAD COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE SPREADS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM RETREATS. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER TO THE EAST BUT AT LEAST THE
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS ANY MOISTURE LEFT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY BE GONE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE COLDEST THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE NUDGES FURTHER INTO EASTERN
CONUS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS DUE TO WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT TO SEE MODERATING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA THAT WILL AIDE
IN WEAKENING THE RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN AROUND DUE TO THE RETREATING RIDGE
AND ALLOW FOR A WARM FRONT/STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO SET UP BY FRIDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. A COLDER AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE
STATE FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
AS A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS (1045MB) LATE FRIDAY
SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
BY LATE SUNDAY.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THEREFORE REMAIN PREDOMINANT. WINDS SLOWLY
SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN TERMINALS 13-15Z. AT THIS
POINT...WILL ADD CEILINGS 4-5K FT. THE CHANCED OF A SHOWER WITH
THE FRONT IS LOW AND IT WILL ALSO TRACK BY QUICKLY... THEREFORE NO
MENTION. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE 13 TO
23KT RANGE AND LAST UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET. AS THE VERY COLD AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT AFTER 21Z...EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
STATE. AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING AND TERMINALS AFFECTED HAVE TOO
LOW A PROBABILITY FOR MENTION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BUT LIMITED THROUGH TUESDAY.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS MORNING...WITH THE SYSTEM
FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  26  35  22  35 /  30  40  30  10   0
ANNISTON    51  28  36  23  37 /  30  40  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  48  27  36  23  40 /  20  30  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  26  40  25  43 /  20  20  10   0   0
CALERA      50  28  38  25  41 /  20  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      54  29  39  26  42 /  20  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  31  43  27  47 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        58  28  43  28  48 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 081135
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES...WITH THE NORTH
STAYING IN THE 40S AND THE SOUTH RISING INTO THE 50S. WE SHOULD
START TO SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP BY NOON AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THAT IS WHEN THE FUN BEGINS FOR THIS FORECAST. THE AIRMASS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL BE A VERY COLD AIRMASS ALOFT AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO AS PRECIPITATION MOVES
INTO OR GENERATES IN THE AREA...IT WILL BE FROZEN ALOFT AND THEN
MOVE DOWN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SHOWERY CONVECTION SETUP THAT APPEARS
TO BE IN PLACE ANY SHOWER SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING THE COLDER AIR
DOWN ALONG WITH IT SO THE SNOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE
ONCE IT GETS GOING. QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE CAN THE PRECIPITATION
START BY SUNSET OR WILL IT BEGIN AFTER SUNSET.

THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PRECIPITATION DOWN A TOUCH SO WILL BEGIN
THE SWITCH OVER BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM IN THE NORTH AND THEN SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES ON. THE GOOD THING WE
HAVE GOING IS THAT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL DROP
TO FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 9 TO 10 PM SO ANY SNOW BAND
THAT DEVELOPS AFTER THIS TIME WILL HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO
STICK TO GRASSY SURFACES...CAR TOPS...AND HIGHER ELEVATED
SURFACES. IT IS GOING TO REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT
EXACTLY WHICH AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANYTHING MORE
THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH SO WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION IN THE HWO
FOR NOW. WITH THAT SAID...AT THIS TIME THE HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE BEST TIME FRAME TO BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM ACROSS
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...WE
WILL SEE WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE MONITORED. THESE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD HELP BLOW ANY SNOW AROUND AND MAY MAKE ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EVEN MORE UNLIKELY.

16

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ON TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED FURTHER AS A SECOND COLD
PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LOW WILL CYCLE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN EASTERN CONUS AND CONTINUE TO
GIVE US THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERY ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DECREASES IN INTENSITY AND
BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION. SO ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW OF MUCH ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR ANY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

A TAD COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE SPREADS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM RETREATS. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER TO THE EAST BUT AT LEAST THE
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS ANY MOISTURE LEFT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY BE GONE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE COLDEST THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE NUDGES FURTHER INTO EASTERN
CONUS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS DUE TO WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT TO SEE MODERATING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA THAT WILL AIDE
IN WEAKENING THE RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN AROUND DUE TO THE RETREATING RIDGE
AND ALLOW FOR A WARM FRONT/STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO SET UP BY FRIDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. A COLDER AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE
STATE FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
AS A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS (1045MB) LATE FRIDAY
SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
BY LATE SUNDAY.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THEREFORE REMAIN PREDOMINANT. WINDS SLOWLY
SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN TERMINALS 13-15Z. AT THIS
POINT...WILL ADD CEILINGS 4-5K FT. THE CHANCED OF A SHOWER WITH
THE FRONT IS LOW AND IT WILL ALSO TRACK BY QUICKLY... THEREFORE NO
MENTION. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE 13 TO
23KT RANGE AND LAST UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET. AS THE VERY COLD AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT AFTER 21Z...EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
STATE. AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING AND TERMINALS AFFECTED HAVE TOO
LOW A PROBABILITY FOR MENTION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BUT LIMITED THROUGH TUESDAY.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS MORNING...WITH THE SYSTEM
FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  26  35  22  35 /  30  40  30  10   0
ANNISTON    51  28  36  23  37 /  30  40  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  48  27  36  23  40 /  20  30  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  26  40  25  43 /  20  20  10   0   0
CALERA      50  28  38  25  41 /  20  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      54  29  39  26  42 /  20  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  31  43  27  47 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        58  28  43  28  48 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 081135
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES...WITH THE NORTH
STAYING IN THE 40S AND THE SOUTH RISING INTO THE 50S. WE SHOULD
START TO SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP BY NOON AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THAT IS WHEN THE FUN BEGINS FOR THIS FORECAST. THE AIRMASS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL BE A VERY COLD AIRMASS ALOFT AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO AS PRECIPITATION MOVES
INTO OR GENERATES IN THE AREA...IT WILL BE FROZEN ALOFT AND THEN
MOVE DOWN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SHOWERY CONVECTION SETUP THAT APPEARS
TO BE IN PLACE ANY SHOWER SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING THE COLDER AIR
DOWN ALONG WITH IT SO THE SNOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE
ONCE IT GETS GOING. QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE CAN THE PRECIPITATION
START BY SUNSET OR WILL IT BEGIN AFTER SUNSET.

THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PRECIPITATION DOWN A TOUCH SO WILL BEGIN
THE SWITCH OVER BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM IN THE NORTH AND THEN SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES ON. THE GOOD THING WE
HAVE GOING IS THAT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL DROP
TO FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 9 TO 10 PM SO ANY SNOW BAND
THAT DEVELOPS AFTER THIS TIME WILL HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO
STICK TO GRASSY SURFACES...CAR TOPS...AND HIGHER ELEVATED
SURFACES. IT IS GOING TO REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT
EXACTLY WHICH AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANYTHING MORE
THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH SO WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION IN THE HWO
FOR NOW. WITH THAT SAID...AT THIS TIME THE HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE BEST TIME FRAME TO BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM ACROSS
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...WE
WILL SEE WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE MONITORED. THESE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD HELP BLOW ANY SNOW AROUND AND MAY MAKE ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EVEN MORE UNLIKELY.

16

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ON TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED FURTHER AS A SECOND COLD
PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LOW WILL CYCLE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN EASTERN CONUS AND CONTINUE TO
GIVE US THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERY ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DECREASES IN INTENSITY AND
BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION. SO ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW OF MUCH ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR ANY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

A TAD COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE SPREADS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM RETREATS. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER TO THE EAST BUT AT LEAST THE
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS ANY MOISTURE LEFT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY BE GONE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE COLDEST THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE NUDGES FURTHER INTO EASTERN
CONUS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS DUE TO WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT TO SEE MODERATING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA THAT WILL AIDE
IN WEAKENING THE RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN AROUND DUE TO THE RETREATING RIDGE
AND ALLOW FOR A WARM FRONT/STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO SET UP BY FRIDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. A COLDER AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE
STATE FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
AS A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS (1045MB) LATE FRIDAY
SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
BY LATE SUNDAY.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THEREFORE REMAIN PREDOMINANT. WINDS SLOWLY
SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN TERMINALS 13-15Z. AT THIS
POINT...WILL ADD CEILINGS 4-5K FT. THE CHANCED OF A SHOWER WITH
THE FRONT IS LOW AND IT WILL ALSO TRACK BY QUICKLY... THEREFORE NO
MENTION. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE 13 TO
23KT RANGE AND LAST UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET. AS THE VERY COLD AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT AFTER 21Z...EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
STATE. AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING AND TERMINALS AFFECTED HAVE TOO
LOW A PROBABILITY FOR MENTION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BUT LIMITED THROUGH TUESDAY.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS MORNING...WITH THE SYSTEM
FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  26  35  22  35 /  30  40  30  10   0
ANNISTON    51  28  36  23  37 /  30  40  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  48  27  36  23  40 /  20  30  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  26  40  25  43 /  20  20  10   0   0
CALERA      50  28  38  25  41 /  20  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      54  29  39  26  42 /  20  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  31  43  27  47 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        58  28  43  28  48 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 081131
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
531 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
BRINGING STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW SWIRLS
AROUND OVER THE UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH WRAP-AROUND STRATUS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FA TONIGHT. AM NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO FALL CLOSE TO FALL
BELOW IFR LEVELS...THOUGH.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF NUANCES. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM
OVER WISCONSIN TO OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUSHES A
FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AND AS A PIECE OF
ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW...A SECOND
SURFACE LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA. THE PIECE OF ENERGY CAUSING THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY THIS MORNING PUSHES A
STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AS IT SWEEPS AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE PUSH FROM THE UPPER
DYNAMICS BEING TODAY...WINDS WITH AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE STRONG...REACHING NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS (ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS). WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS...HAVE LEFT THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COASTAL
ZONES TONIGHT AS IS. TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 50S NORTHWEST AS COOLER AIR GETS PUSHED OVER THE REGION...TO
AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST WITH THIS AREA BEING THE LAST TO SEE THE COOLER
AIR MOVE IN. TONIGHT...THE PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW...PUSHING WRAP-AROUND STRATUS SOUTHEAST OVER THE FCST
AREA. NOT EXPECTING A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TONIGHT FOR ANY LIGHT SHRA
THOUGH...SO LEFT PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH
MIXING FROM THE WINDS TONIGHT HELPING TO OFFSET ANY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WHILE
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
LESS GUSTY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CLEARS SKIES AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT
THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 30S AT THE
COAST. 12/DS

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS MOVES THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BOTH SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER FCST AREA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE
08/06Z GFS IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT AND CLOSER IN TIMING TO
THE ECMWF THAN WAS THE 08/00Z...SO SOME QUESTIONS TO THE FCST AT THIS
TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL FRONTAL
PASSAGES...AND WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED
ABOVE...MAY SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH ITS PASSAGE. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY. A LITTLE COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...COOLING INTO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY.
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND SURFACE LOWS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...GALE LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE LIKELY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EASING...SO WE
ARE EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT LEVEL OR HIGHER WINDS TO LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY BRINGING
A TEMPORARY RISE IN THE WINDS TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS...EASING FRIDAY
NIGHT. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     ALZ051>060-261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 081052
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
452 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF NUANCES. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM
OVER WISCONSIN TO OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUSHES A
FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AND AS A PIECE OF
ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW...A SECOND
SURFACE LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA. THE PIECE OF ENERGY CAUSING THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY THIS MORNING PUSHES A
STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AS IT SWEEPS AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE PUSH FROM THE UPPER
DYNAMICS BEING TODAY...WINDS WITH AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE STRONG...REACHING NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS (ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS). WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS...HAVE LEFT THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COASTAL
ZONES TONIGHT AS IS. TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 50S NORTHWEST AS COOLER AIR GETS PUSHED OVER THE REGION...TO
AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST WITH THIS AREA BEING THE LAST TO SEE THE COOLER
AIR MOVE IN. TONIGHT...THE PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW...PUSHING WRAP-AROUND STRATUS SOUTHEAST OVER THE FCST
AREA. NOT EXPECTING A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TONIGHT FOR ANY LIGHT SHRA
THOUGH...SO LEFT PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH
MIXING FROM THE WINDS TONIGHT HELPING TO OFFSET ANY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. 16/SAM

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WHILE
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
LESS GUSTY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CLEARS SKIES AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT
THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 30S AT THE
COAST. 12/DS

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS MOVES THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BOTH SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER FCST AREA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE
08/06Z GFS IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT AND CLOSER IN TIMING TO
THE ECMWF THAN WAS THE 08/00Z...SO SOME QUESTIONS TO THE FCST AT THIS
TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL FRONTAL
PASSAGES...AND WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED
ABOVE...MAY SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH ITS PASSAGE. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY. A LITTLE COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...COOLING INTO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

.MARINE...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY.
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND SURFACE LOWS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...GALE LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE LIKELY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EASING...SO WE
ARE EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT LEVEL OR HIGHER WINDS TO LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY BRINGING
A TEMPORARY RISE IN THE WINDS TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS...EASING FRIDAY
NIGHT. 16/SAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  30  50  32 /  10   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   60  33  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
DESTIN      58  37  51  38 /  10   0   0  10
EVERGREEN   57  30  48  29 /  10   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  54  29  48  27 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN      55  30  46  29 /  10  10   0   0
CRESTVIEW   60  29  50  30 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     ALZ051>060-261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KBMX 080951
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
351 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES...WITH THE NORTH
STAYING IN THE 40S AND THE SOUTH RISING INTO THE 50S. WE SHOULD
START TO SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP BY NOON AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THAT IS WHEN THE FUN BEGINS FOR THIS FORECAST. THE AIRMASS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL BE A VERY COLD AIRMASS ALOFT AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO AS PRECIPITATION MOVES
INTO OR GENERATES IN THE AREA...IT WILL BE FROZEN ALOFT AND THEN
MOVE DOWN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SHOWERY CONVECTION SETUP THAT APPEARS
TO BE IN PLACE ANY SHOWER SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING THE COLDER AIR
DOWN ALONG WITH IT SO THE SNOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE
ONCE IT GETS GOING. QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE CAN THE PRECIPITATION
START BY SUNSET OR WILL IT BEGIN AFTER SUNSET.

THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PRECIPITATION DOWN A TOUCH SO WILL BEGIN
THE SWITCH OVER BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM IN THE NORTH AND THEN SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES ON. THE GOOD THING WE
HAVE GOING IS THAT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL DROP
TO FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 9 TO 10 PM SO ANY SNOW BAND
THAT DEVELOPS AFTER THIS TIME WILL HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO
STICK TO GRASSY SURFACES...CAR TOPS...AND HIGHER ELEVATED
SURFACES. IT IS GOING TO REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT
EXACTLY WHICH AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANYTHING MORE
THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH SO WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION IN THE HWO
FOR NOW. WITH THAT SAID...AT THIS TIME THE HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE BEST TIME FRAME TO BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM ACROSS
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...WE
WILL SEE WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE MONITORED. THESE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD HELP BLOW ANY SNOW AROUND AND MAY MAKE ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EVEN MORE UNLIKELY.

16

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ON TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED FURTHER AS A SECOND COLD
PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LOW WILL CYCLE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN EASTERN CONUS AND CONTINUE TO
GIVE US THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERY ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DECREASES IN INTENSITY AND
BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION. SO ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW OF MUCH ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR ANY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

A TAD COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE SPREADS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM RETREATS. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER TO THE EAST BUT AT LEAST THE
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS ANY MOISTURE LEFT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY BE GONE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE COLDEST THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE NUDGES FURTHER INTO EASTERN
CONUS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS DUE TO WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT TO SEE MODERATING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA THAT WILL AIDE
IN WEAKENING THE RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN AROUND DUE TO THE RETREATING RIDGE
AND ALLOW FOR A WARM FRONT/STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO SET UP BY FRIDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. A COLDER AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE
STATE FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
AS A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS (1045MB) LATE FRIDAY
SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
BY LATE SUNDAY.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TREND GOING AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS
THEREFORE REMAIN PREDOMINANT. WINDS SLOWLY SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. NOT A LOT OF TIME OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEREFORE NOT MANY
CLOUDS. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
12-14Z. AT THIS POINT...WILL ADD CEILINGS 4-5K FT. THE CHANCED OF
A SHOWER WITH THE FRONT IS LOW AND IT WILL ALSO TRACK BY QUICKLY...
THEREFORE NO MENTION. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
IN THE 13 TO 23KT RANGE AND LAST UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET. AS THE
VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AFTER 21Z...EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING AND TERMINALS AFFECTED
HAVE TOO LOW A PROBABILITY FOR MENTION.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS MORNING...WITH THE SYSTEM
FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  26  35  22  35 /  30  40  30  10   0
ANNISTON    51  28  36  23  37 /  30  40  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  48  27  36  23  40 /  20  30  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  26  40  25  43 /  20  20  10   0   0
CALERA      50  28  38  25  41 /  20  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      54  29  39  26  42 /  20  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  31  43  27  47 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        58  28  43  28  48 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

16/08/75




000
FXUS64 KHUN 080906
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
306 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH TWO CDFNTS HEADING OUR
WAY. THE FIRST CDFNT EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN MS ATTM...WHILE THE SECOND
CDFNT (WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND IT) IS NOW OVER NRN MO.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO SPIN SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME WINTER WX BEGINNING TODAY THRU TUESDAY
AFTN.

FOR TODAY THE FIRST CDFNT WILL PASS THRU THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPS BY THE AFTN FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 40S THIS AFTN...STILL SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AS SHOWN BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THE
PROBLEM IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR SNOW AND THE AREAL COVERAGE.
MODELS SHOW SCT SNOW POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
THE BEST CHC OVER NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN. THE BEST TIMING OF
SNOW IS ALSO A LITTLE TRICKY BUT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z TONIGHT
THRU TUESDAY EVENING. ATTM NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ANYWHERE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ARND ONE INCH OF SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER SRN MID TN AND EXTREME NERN AL BY TUESDAY AFTN.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ONE HALF OF AN
INCH OR LESS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ATTM BUT WILL
ISSUE A SPS LATER THIS MRNG. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER WX STATEMENTS OR
UPGRADES.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE TN
VALLEY TAKING THE CHC OF PCPN WITH IT. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY...THE TN VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW THRU THIS
TIMEFRAME. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO PCPN WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. THERE COULD BE A FLY IN THE ONITMENT ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT PCPN AS A WEAK CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED ATTM AND IT IS ALSO SO FAR OUT IN THE
FCST THAT WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN ON FRIDAY FOR NOW.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1203 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT HSV/MSL OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS AN UPPER
LOW SINKS SEWD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND AN INITIAL
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TWO TERMINALS ARND 15Z...WITH
WINDS VEERING TO NW AND INCREASING TO 10G18 KTS. STRATUS DECK WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ARND 5 KFT IN WAKE OF FRONT BENEATH OVERCAST
ALTOSTRATUS. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PCPN IN THE FORM OF -SHSN WILL BEGIN
LATE TOMORROW AFTN IN NW ALABAMA AND SPREAD EWD THRU THE EVENING AS
LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY. REGARDLESS OF -SHSN CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THIS PERIOD BUT WILL FALL TO ARND 3500 FT.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  27  34  21 /  30  40  30  10
SHOALS        44  26  35  22 /  30  40  30  10
VINEMONT      45  27  34  21 /  30  40  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  44  26  32  18 /  30  40  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   46  29  33  22 /  30  40  30  10
FORT PAYNE    46  27  33  19 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 080603
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1203 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 917 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
ONCOMING COLD FRONT IS JUST W OF THE MS RIVER INTO N CNTRL AR...WITH
THE NRN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO CROSS EWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY STATES. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE PRETTY MUCH DOES NOT
HAVE THE FRONT CROSSING INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HRS. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ARE PRESENT OVER NW TN
AND LOCATIONS NWD. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT THOUGH DO NOT LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SFC FLOW IS INCREASING OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH THE THICKER CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO CROSS
THE MS RIVER EWD. AS SUCH...RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED A TAD JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING PERIOD...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA. SOME OF
THE CURRENT/HOURLY GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS. OVERALL THOUGH...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT HSV/MSL OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS AN UPPER
LOW SINKS SEWD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND AN INITIAL
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TWO TERMINALS ARND 15Z...WITH
WINDS VEERING TO NW AND INCREASING TO 10G18 KTS. STRATUS DECK WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ARND 5 KFT IN WAKE OF FRONT BENEATH OVERCAST
ALTOSTRATUS. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PCPN IN THE FORM OF -SHSN WILL BEGIN
LATE TOMORROW AFTN IN NW ALABAMA AND SPREAD EWD THRU THE EVENING AS
LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY. REGARDLESS OF -SHSN CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THIS PERIOD BUT WILL FALL TO ARND 3500 FT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 080550
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
INTO FAR NW TENNESSEE. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT WITH A DROP IN
DEWPOINTS ALSO NOTED. COLDER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND IT OVER
MISSOURI AND IOWA. NOT CURRENTLY SEEING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT OVER ARKANSAS WITH CLOUD BASES REMAINING HIGH. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ALONG THE FRONT IS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS AND IS MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FURTHER NORTHWEST OVER MISSOURI AND IOWA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND LOWER CLOUD BASES. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT IN SEEING ANY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT BEFORE 12Z WITH ALL MODELS NOW KEEPING US DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES AFTER 9Z WITH SOME LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN VORT MAX AND THE FRONT AND AT LEAST SOME
MOISTURE PRESENT. HOWEVER THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LOWERED LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES
IN THESE LOCATIONS BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD OVERALL BEGIN TO LEVEL
OFF OR SLIGHTLY RISE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY DOES NOT
INDICATE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LOW-LEVEL RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE BY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THOUGH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER WITH DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TREND GOING AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS
THEREFORE REMAIN PREDOMINANT. WINDS SLOWLY SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. NOT ALOT OF TIME OR MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEREFORE NOT MANY CLOUDS. WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN TERMINALS 12-14Z. AT
THIS POINT...WILL ADD CEILINGS 4-5K FT. THE CHANCED OF A SHOWER
WITH THE FRONT IS LOW AND IT WILL ALSO TRACK BY
QUICKLY...THEREFORE NO MENTION. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY IN THE 13 TO 23KT RANGE AND LAST UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNSET. AS THE VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AFTER 21Z...EXPECT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING AND
TERMINALS AFFECTED HAVE TOO LOW A PROBABILITY FOR MENTION.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY
THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 404 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM IS ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ST LOUIS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND DROPS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BE GUSTY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS COLD AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD..THE AIRMASS
COLUMN JUST OFF THE SURFACE COOLS QUICKLY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S...IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS LOW AS 1500FT AGL.
FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST COLUMN UP TO AROUND
700MB/-19C...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST COLUMN ARE STEEP DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT...AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...STARTING OUT AS
RAIN AND TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
FALLS BELOW FREEZING ENTIRELY...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...MOISTURE IS LACKING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN BANDS...POSSIBLY TRAINING ACROSS
THE SAME AREA AT TIMES. IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH...SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. FORECASTING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE BANDS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE SINCE ONE LOCATION
COULD SEE PRECIPITATION WHILE A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD REMAINS
DRY ALL DAY. GENERALLY...LIGHT AND NONUNIFORM ACCUMULATIONS COULD
BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION FALL. LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE MID 30S ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE...ONLY DIMINISHING TO 8-10MPH
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING CLOUD
COVER WITH IT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH A SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. DEPENDING ON TIMING...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE THOUGH TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT RAIN AT THIS TIME.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  47  27  35  23 /  20  30  30  20  10
ANNISTON    31  48  27  36  24 /  10  30  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  37  47  29  36  25 /  10  20  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  36  48  30  39  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      37  48  28  38  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
AUBURN      35  51  29  38  27 /  10  20  20  10   0
MONTGOMERY  36  53  30  42  28 /  10  20  10  10   0
TROY        36  55  30  42  29 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 080550
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
INTO FAR NW TENNESSEE. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT WITH A DROP IN
DEWPOINTS ALSO NOTED. COLDER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND IT OVER
MISSOURI AND IOWA. NOT CURRENTLY SEEING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT OVER ARKANSAS WITH CLOUD BASES REMAINING HIGH. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ALONG THE FRONT IS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS AND IS MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FURTHER NORTHWEST OVER MISSOURI AND IOWA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND LOWER CLOUD BASES. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT IN SEEING ANY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT BEFORE 12Z WITH ALL MODELS NOW KEEPING US DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES AFTER 9Z WITH SOME LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN VORT MAX AND THE FRONT AND AT LEAST SOME
MOISTURE PRESENT. HOWEVER THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LOWERED LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES
IN THESE LOCATIONS BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD OVERALL BEGIN TO LEVEL
OFF OR SLIGHTLY RISE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY DOES NOT
INDICATE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LOW-LEVEL RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE BY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THOUGH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER WITH DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TREND GOING AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS
THEREFORE REMAIN PREDOMINANT. WINDS SLOWLY SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. NOT ALOT OF TIME OR MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEREFORE NOT MANY CLOUDS. WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN TERMINALS 12-14Z. AT
THIS POINT...WILL ADD CEILINGS 4-5K FT. THE CHANCED OF A SHOWER
WITH THE FRONT IS LOW AND IT WILL ALSO TRACK BY
QUICKLY...THEREFORE NO MENTION. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY IN THE 13 TO 23KT RANGE AND LAST UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNSET. AS THE VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AFTER 21Z...EXPECT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING AND
TERMINALS AFFECTED HAVE TOO LOW A PROBABILITY FOR MENTION.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY
THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 404 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM IS ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ST LOUIS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND DROPS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BE GUSTY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS COLD AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD..THE AIRMASS
COLUMN JUST OFF THE SURFACE COOLS QUICKLY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S...IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS LOW AS 1500FT AGL.
FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST COLUMN UP TO AROUND
700MB/-19C...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST COLUMN ARE STEEP DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT...AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...STARTING OUT AS
RAIN AND TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
FALLS BELOW FREEZING ENTIRELY...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...MOISTURE IS LACKING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN BANDS...POSSIBLY TRAINING ACROSS
THE SAME AREA AT TIMES. IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH...SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. FORECASTING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE BANDS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE SINCE ONE LOCATION
COULD SEE PRECIPITATION WHILE A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD REMAINS
DRY ALL DAY. GENERALLY...LIGHT AND NONUNIFORM ACCUMULATIONS COULD
BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION FALL. LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE MID 30S ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE...ONLY DIMINISHING TO 8-10MPH
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING CLOUD
COVER WITH IT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH A SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. DEPENDING ON TIMING...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE THOUGH TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT RAIN AT THIS TIME.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  47  27  35  23 /  20  30  30  20  10
ANNISTON    31  48  27  36  24 /  10  30  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  37  47  29  36  25 /  10  20  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  36  48  30  39  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      37  48  28  38  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
AUBURN      35  51  29  38  27 /  10  20  20  10   0
MONTGOMERY  36  53  30  42  28 /  10  20  10  10   0
TROY        36  55  30  42  29 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 080550
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
INTO FAR NW TENNESSEE. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT WITH A DROP IN
DEWPOINTS ALSO NOTED. COLDER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND IT OVER
MISSOURI AND IOWA. NOT CURRENTLY SEEING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT OVER ARKANSAS WITH CLOUD BASES REMAINING HIGH. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ALONG THE FRONT IS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS AND IS MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FURTHER NORTHWEST OVER MISSOURI AND IOWA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND LOWER CLOUD BASES. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT IN SEEING ANY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT BEFORE 12Z WITH ALL MODELS NOW KEEPING US DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES AFTER 9Z WITH SOME LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN VORT MAX AND THE FRONT AND AT LEAST SOME
MOISTURE PRESENT. HOWEVER THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LOWERED LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES
IN THESE LOCATIONS BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD OVERALL BEGIN TO LEVEL
OFF OR SLIGHTLY RISE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY DOES NOT
INDICATE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LOW-LEVEL RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE BY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THOUGH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER WITH DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TREND GOING AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS
THEREFORE REMAIN PREDOMINANT. WINDS SLOWLY SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. NOT ALOT OF TIME OR MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEREFORE NOT MANY CLOUDS. WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN TERMINALS 12-14Z. AT
THIS POINT...WILL ADD CEILINGS 4-5K FT. THE CHANCED OF A SHOWER
WITH THE FRONT IS LOW AND IT WILL ALSO TRACK BY
QUICKLY...THEREFORE NO MENTION. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY IN THE 13 TO 23KT RANGE AND LAST UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNSET. AS THE VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AFTER 21Z...EXPECT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING AND
TERMINALS AFFECTED HAVE TOO LOW A PROBABILITY FOR MENTION.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY
THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 404 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM IS ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ST LOUIS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND DROPS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BE GUSTY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS COLD AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD..THE AIRMASS
COLUMN JUST OFF THE SURFACE COOLS QUICKLY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S...IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS LOW AS 1500FT AGL.
FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST COLUMN UP TO AROUND
700MB/-19C...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST COLUMN ARE STEEP DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT...AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...STARTING OUT AS
RAIN AND TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
FALLS BELOW FREEZING ENTIRELY...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...MOISTURE IS LACKING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN BANDS...POSSIBLY TRAINING ACROSS
THE SAME AREA AT TIMES. IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH...SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. FORECASTING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE BANDS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE SINCE ONE LOCATION
COULD SEE PRECIPITATION WHILE A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD REMAINS
DRY ALL DAY. GENERALLY...LIGHT AND NONUNIFORM ACCUMULATIONS COULD
BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION FALL. LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE MID 30S ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE...ONLY DIMINISHING TO 8-10MPH
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING CLOUD
COVER WITH IT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH A SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. DEPENDING ON TIMING...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE THOUGH TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT RAIN AT THIS TIME.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  47  27  35  23 /  20  30  30  20  10
ANNISTON    31  48  27  36  24 /  10  30  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  37  47  29  36  25 /  10  20  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  36  48  30  39  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      37  48  28  38  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
AUBURN      35  51  29  38  27 /  10  20  20  10   0
MONTGOMERY  36  53  30  42  28 /  10  20  10  10   0
TROY        36  55  30  42  29 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 080546
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W/SW PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z MONDAY. SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD DECKS AROUND 4-6 KFT AGL ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS WILL OTHERWISE PERSIST TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING. A STRONG 90-110 KT 500 MB JET WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND APPROACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS INLAND AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR EXPECTED FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINA`S...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND
BEING A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS
FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS
NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE
STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE
TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA...FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS ADVISORY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT/COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE KEEPS WINDS HIGHER
THERE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MONDAY.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS FORECAST FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
ALOFT IS SHALLOW DENOTED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES. THUS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL STORM/DYNAMICS IS AN ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE SHALLOW RH STRATA ALOFT.
/10

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CONTINUED WINDY
ALONG THE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE
TROPOSPHERIC FOLD STILL OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA. WINDS THOUGH MAY TAPER BACK
TO BREEZY IN OUR MORE PROTECTED INLAND WITH A MIXTURE OF SPOTTY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS AND EVEN LIGHT WINDS MIXED IN WHERE
ENOUGH COOLING CAN OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS TO SET UP A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT IN GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED AND ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GFS HAS TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL BOTTOMING OUT AT BETWEEN -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THOUGH WON`T PLUMMET TOO FAR DUE TO THE EFFICIENT
MIXING...GENERALLY MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND NEAR 30 TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S AND
PERHAPS LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. DRY...COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER E.G., GFS FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE CAA DOESN`T APPEAR THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
EFFICIENT COOLING SO TRENDED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS. /08

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BY THURSDAY HEIGHTS START TO
RISE ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE THAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THEN...BUT MORE LIKE A SPRINKLE. TEMPERATURE
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FRIDAY...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
MAINLY 50S ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING TO 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. /08

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS IN
ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON THIS PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FETCH...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN 7 TO 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO
10 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.
/10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-
     266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KMOB 080546
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W/SW PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z MONDAY. SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD DECKS AROUND 4-6 KFT AGL ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS WILL OTHERWISE PERSIST TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING. A STRONG 90-110 KT 500 MB JET WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND APPROACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS INLAND AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR EXPECTED FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINA`S...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND
BEING A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS
FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS
NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE
STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE
TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA...FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS ADVISORY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT/COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE KEEPS WINDS HIGHER
THERE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MONDAY.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS FORECAST FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
ALOFT IS SHALLOW DENOTED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES. THUS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL STORM/DYNAMICS IS AN ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE SHALLOW RH STRATA ALOFT.
/10

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CONTINUED WINDY
ALONG THE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE
TROPOSPHERIC FOLD STILL OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA. WINDS THOUGH MAY TAPER BACK
TO BREEZY IN OUR MORE PROTECTED INLAND WITH A MIXTURE OF SPOTTY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS AND EVEN LIGHT WINDS MIXED IN WHERE
ENOUGH COOLING CAN OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS TO SET UP A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT IN GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED AND ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GFS HAS TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL BOTTOMING OUT AT BETWEEN -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THOUGH WON`T PLUMMET TOO FAR DUE TO THE EFFICIENT
MIXING...GENERALLY MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND NEAR 30 TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S AND
PERHAPS LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. DRY...COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER E.G., GFS FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE CAA DOESN`T APPEAR THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
EFFICIENT COOLING SO TRENDED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS. /08

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BY THURSDAY HEIGHTS START TO
RISE ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE THAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THEN...BUT MORE LIKE A SPRINKLE. TEMPERATURE
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FRIDAY...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
MAINLY 50S ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING TO 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. /08

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS IN
ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON THIS PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FETCH...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN 7 TO 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO
10 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.
/10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-
     266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KBMX 080436
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1036 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
INTO FAR NW TENNESSEE. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT WITH A DROP IN
DEWPOINTS ALSO NOTED. COLDER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND IT OVER
MISSOURI AND IOWA. NOT CURRENTLY SEEING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT OVER ARKANSAS WITH CLOUD BASES REMAINING HIGH. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ALONG THE FRONT IS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS AND IS MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FURTHER NORTHWEST OVER MISSOURI AND IOWA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND LOWER CLOUD BASES. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT IN SEEING ANY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT BEFORE 12Z WITH ALL MODELS NOW KEEPING US DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES AFTER 9Z WITH SOME LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN VORT MAX AND THE FRONT AND AT LEAST SOME
MOISTURE PRESENT. HOWEVER THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LOWERED LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES
IN THESE LOCATIONS BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD OVERALL BEGIN TO LEVEL
OFF OR SLIGHTLY RISE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY DOES NOT
INDICATE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LOW-LEVEL RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE BY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THOUGH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER WITH DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SWING FROM THE WEST TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE
AND ZIP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 12 KTS
AND GUSTY.

CEILINGS AROUND 4-6K FT WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES EVEN LOWER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT ALMOST ANYTIME. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FOR THE NORTHERN SITES...BUT
ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME THAT ANY TERMINAL WOULD
EXPERIENCE THIS WEATHER IS TOO LOW.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY
THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 404 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM IS ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ST LOUIS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND DROPS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BE GUSTY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS COLD AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD..THE AIRMASS
COLUMN JUST OFF THE SURFACE COOLS QUICKLY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S...IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS LOW AS 1500FT AGL.
FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST COLUMN UP TO AROUND
700MB/-19C...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST COLUMN ARE STEEP DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT...AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...STARTING OUT AS
RAIN AND TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
FALLS BELOW FREEZING ENTIRELY...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...MOISTURE IS LACKING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN BANDS...POSSIBLY TRAINING ACROSS
THE SAME AREA AT TIMES. IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH...SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. FORECASTING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE BANDS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE SINCE ONE LOCATION
COULD SEE PRECIPITATION WHILE A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD REMAINS
DRY ALL DAY. GENERALLY...LIGHT AND NONUNIFORM ACCUMULATIONS COULD
BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION FALL. LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE MID 30S ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE...ONLY DIMINISHING TO 8-10MPH
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING CLOUD
COVER WITH IT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH A SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. DEPENDING ON TIMING...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE THOUGH TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT RAIN AT THIS TIME.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     33  47  27  35  23 /  20  30  30  20  10
ANNISTON    34  48  27  36  24 /  10  30  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  37  47  29  36  25 /  10  20  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  37  48  30  39  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      37  48  28  38  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
AUBURN      35  51  29  38  27 /  10  20  20  10   0
MONTGOMERY  36  53  30  42  28 /  10  20  10  10   0
TROY        36  55  30  42  29 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 080436
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1036 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
INTO FAR NW TENNESSEE. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT WITH A DROP IN
DEWPOINTS ALSO NOTED. COLDER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND IT OVER
MISSOURI AND IOWA. NOT CURRENTLY SEEING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT OVER ARKANSAS WITH CLOUD BASES REMAINING HIGH. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ALONG THE FRONT IS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS AND IS MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FURTHER NORTHWEST OVER MISSOURI AND IOWA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND LOWER CLOUD BASES. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT IN SEEING ANY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT BEFORE 12Z WITH ALL MODELS NOW KEEPING US DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES AFTER 9Z WITH SOME LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN VORT MAX AND THE FRONT AND AT LEAST SOME
MOISTURE PRESENT. HOWEVER THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LOWERED LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES
IN THESE LOCATIONS BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD OVERALL BEGIN TO LEVEL
OFF OR SLIGHTLY RISE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY DOES NOT
INDICATE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LOW-LEVEL RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE BY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THOUGH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER WITH DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SWING FROM THE WEST TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE
AND ZIP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 12 KTS
AND GUSTY.

CEILINGS AROUND 4-6K FT WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES EVEN LOWER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT ALMOST ANYTIME. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FOR THE NORTHERN SITES...BUT
ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME THAT ANY TERMINAL WOULD
EXPERIENCE THIS WEATHER IS TOO LOW.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY
THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 404 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM IS ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ST LOUIS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND DROPS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BE GUSTY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS COLD AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD..THE AIRMASS
COLUMN JUST OFF THE SURFACE COOLS QUICKLY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S...IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS LOW AS 1500FT AGL.
FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST COLUMN UP TO AROUND
700MB/-19C...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST COLUMN ARE STEEP DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT...AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...STARTING OUT AS
RAIN AND TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
FALLS BELOW FREEZING ENTIRELY...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...MOISTURE IS LACKING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN BANDS...POSSIBLY TRAINING ACROSS
THE SAME AREA AT TIMES. IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH...SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. FORECASTING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE BANDS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE SINCE ONE LOCATION
COULD SEE PRECIPITATION WHILE A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD REMAINS
DRY ALL DAY. GENERALLY...LIGHT AND NONUNIFORM ACCUMULATIONS COULD
BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION FALL. LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE MID 30S ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE...ONLY DIMINISHING TO 8-10MPH
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING CLOUD
COVER WITH IT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH A SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. DEPENDING ON TIMING...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE THOUGH TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT RAIN AT THIS TIME.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     33  47  27  35  23 /  20  30  30  20  10
ANNISTON    34  48  27  36  24 /  10  30  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  37  47  29  36  25 /  10  20  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  37  48  30  39  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      37  48  28  38  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
AUBURN      35  51  29  38  27 /  10  20  20  10   0
MONTGOMERY  36  53  30  42  28 /  10  20  10  10   0
TROY        36  55  30  42  29 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 080436
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1036 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
INTO FAR NW TENNESSEE. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT WITH A DROP IN
DEWPOINTS ALSO NOTED. COLDER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND IT OVER
MISSOURI AND IOWA. NOT CURRENTLY SEEING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT OVER ARKANSAS WITH CLOUD BASES REMAINING HIGH. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ALONG THE FRONT IS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS AND IS MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. MORE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FURTHER NORTHWEST OVER MISSOURI AND IOWA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND LOWER CLOUD BASES. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT IN SEEING ANY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT BEFORE 12Z WITH ALL MODELS NOW KEEPING US DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES AFTER 9Z WITH SOME LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN VORT MAX AND THE FRONT AND AT LEAST SOME
MOISTURE PRESENT. HOWEVER THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LOWERED LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES
IN THESE LOCATIONS BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD OVERALL BEGIN TO LEVEL
OFF OR SLIGHTLY RISE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY DOES NOT
INDICATE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LOW-LEVEL RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE BY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THOUGH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER WITH DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SWING FROM THE WEST TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE
AND ZIP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 12 KTS
AND GUSTY.

CEILINGS AROUND 4-6K FT WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES EVEN LOWER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT ALMOST ANYTIME. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FOR THE NORTHERN SITES...BUT
ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME THAT ANY TERMINAL WOULD
EXPERIENCE THIS WEATHER IS TOO LOW.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY
THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 404 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM IS ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ST LOUIS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND DROPS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BE GUSTY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS COLD AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD..THE AIRMASS
COLUMN JUST OFF THE SURFACE COOLS QUICKLY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S...IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS LOW AS 1500FT AGL.
FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST COLUMN UP TO AROUND
700MB/-19C...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST COLUMN ARE STEEP DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT...AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...STARTING OUT AS
RAIN AND TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
FALLS BELOW FREEZING ENTIRELY...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...MOISTURE IS LACKING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN BANDS...POSSIBLY TRAINING ACROSS
THE SAME AREA AT TIMES. IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH...SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. FORECASTING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE BANDS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE SINCE ONE LOCATION
COULD SEE PRECIPITATION WHILE A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD REMAINS
DRY ALL DAY. GENERALLY...LIGHT AND NONUNIFORM ACCUMULATIONS COULD
BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION FALL. LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE MID 30S ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE...ONLY DIMINISHING TO 8-10MPH
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING CLOUD
COVER WITH IT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH A SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. DEPENDING ON TIMING...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE THOUGH TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT RAIN AT THIS TIME.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     33  47  27  35  23 /  20  30  30  20  10
ANNISTON    34  48  27  36  24 /  10  30  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  37  47  29  36  25 /  10  20  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  37  48  30  39  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      37  48  28  38  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
AUBURN      35  51  29  38  27 /  10  20  20  10   0
MONTGOMERY  36  53  30  42  28 /  10  20  10  10   0
TROY        36  55  30  42  29 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 080351 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
943 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS WILL OTHERWISE PERSIST TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING. A STRONG 90-110 KT 500 MB JET WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND APPROACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS INLAND AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR EXPECTED FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...A VFR FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD DECKS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINA`S...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND
BEING A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS
FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS
NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE
STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE
TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA...FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS ADVISORY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT/COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE KEEPS WINDS HIGHER
THERE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MONDAY.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS FORECAST FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
ALOFT IS SHALLOW DENOTED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES. THUS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL STORM/DYNAMICS IS AN ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE SHALLOW RH STRATA ALOFT.
/10

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CONTINUED WINDY
ALONG THE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE
TROPOSPHERIC FOLD STILL OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA. WINDS THOUGH MAY TAPER BACK
TO BREEZY IN OUR MORE PROTECTED INLAND WITH A MIXTURE OF SPOTTY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS AND EVEN LIGHT WINDS MIXED IN WHERE
ENOUGH COOLING CAN OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS TO SET UP A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT IN GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED AND ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GFS HAS TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL BOTTOMING OUT AT BETWEEN -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THOUGH WON`T PLUMMET TOO FAR DUE TO THE EFFICIENT
MIXING...GENERALLY MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND NEAR 30 TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S AND
PERHAPS LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. DRY...COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER E.G., GFS FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE CAA DOESN`T APPEAR THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
EFFICIENT COOLING SO TRENDED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS. /08

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BY THURSDAY HEIGHTS START TO
RISE ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE THAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THEN...BUT MORE LIKE A SPRINKLE. TEMPERATURE
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FRIDAY...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
MAINLY 50S ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING TO 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. /08

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS IN
ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON THIS PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FETCH...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN 7 TO 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO
10 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.
/10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-
     266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 080343 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
943 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS WILL OTHERWISE PERSIST TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. A STRONG 90-110 KT 500 MB JET WAS DIVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE
COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
MONDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS INLAND AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR EXPECTED FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...A VFR FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD DECKS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINA`S...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND
BEING A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS
FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS
NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE
STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE
TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA...FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS ADVISORY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT/COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE KEEPS WINDS HIGHER
THERE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MONDAY.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS FORECAST FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
ALOFT IS SHALLOW DENOTED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES. THUS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL STORM/DYNAMICS IS AN ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE SHALLOW RH STRATA ALOFT.
/10

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CONTINUED WINDY
ALONG THE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE
TROPOSPHERIC FOLD STILL OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA. WINDS THOUGH MAY TAPER BACK
TO BREEZY IN OUR MORE PROTECTED INLAND WITH A MIXTURE OF SPOTTY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS AND EVEN LIGHT WINDS MIXED IN WHERE
ENOUGH COOLING CAN OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS TO SET UP A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT IN GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED AND ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GFS HAS TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL BOTTOMING OUT AT BETWEEN -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THOUGH WON`T PLUMMET TOO FAR DUE TO THE EFFICIENT
MIXING...GENERALLY MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND NEAR 30 TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S AND
PERHAPS LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. DRY...COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER E.G., GFS FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE CAA DOESN`T APPEAR THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
EFFICIENT COOLING SO TRENDED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS. /08

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BY THURSDAY HEIGHTS START TO
RISE ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE THAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THEN...BUT MORE LIKE A SPRINKLE. TEMPERATURE
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FRIDAY...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
MAINLY 50S ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING TO 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. /08

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS IN
ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON THIS PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FETCH...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN 7 TO 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO
10 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.
/10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-
     266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 080317 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
917 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
POPS ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONCOMING COLD FRONT IS JUST W OF THE MS RIVER INTO N CNTRL AR...WITH
THE NRN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO CROSS EWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY STATES. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE PRETTY MUCH DOES NOT
HAVE THE FRONT CROSSING INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HRS. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ARE PRESENT OVER NW TN
AND LOCATIONS NWD. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT THOUGH DO NOT LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SFC FLOW IS INCREASING OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH THE THICKER CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO CROSS
THE MS RIVER EWD. AS SUCH...RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED A TAD JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING PERIOD...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA. SOME OF
THE CURRENT/HOURLY GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS. OVERALL THOUGH...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES. CLOUD HEIGHTS MAY LOWER CLOSER TO
4-5KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS MON...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE AREA. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO XPCTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NW
AROUND 12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG/BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 080006
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM IS ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ST LOUIS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND DROPS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BE GUSTY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS COLD AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD..THE AIRMASS
COLUMN JUST OFF THE SURFACE COOLS QUICKLY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S...IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS LOW AS 1500FT AGL.
FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST COLUMN UP TO AROUND
700MB/-19C...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST COLUMN ARE STEEP DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT...AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...STARTING OUT AS
RAIN AND TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
FALLS BELOW FREEZING ENTIRELY...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...MOISTURE IS LACKING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN BANDS...POSSIBLY TRAINING ACROSS
THE SAME AREA AT TIMES. IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH...SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. FORECASTING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE BANDS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE SINCE ONE LOCATION
COULD SEE PRECIPITATION WHILE A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD REMAINS
DRY ALL DAY. GENERALLY...LIGHT AND NONUNIFORM ACCUMULATIONS COULD
BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION FALL. LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE MID 30S ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE...ONLY DIMINISHING TO 8-10MPH
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING CLOUD
COVER WITH IT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH A SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. DEPENDING ON TIMING...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE THOUGH TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT RAIN AT THIS TIME.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SWING FROM THE WEST TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE
AND ZIP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 12 KTS
AND GUSTY.

CEILINGS AROUND 4-6K FT WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES EVEN LOWER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT ALMOST ANYTIME. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FOR THE NORTHERN SITES...BUT
ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME THAT ANY TERMINAL WOULD
EXPERIENCE THIS WEATHER IS TOO LOW.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY
THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     34  47  27  35  23 /  20  30  30  20  10
ANNISTON    36  48  27  36  24 /  10  30  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  38  47  29  36  25 /  20  20  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  37  48  30  39  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      37  48  28  38  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
AUBURN      36  51  29  38  27 /  10  20  20  10   0
MONTGOMERY  37  53  30  42  28 /  10  20  10  10   0
TROY        37  55  30  42  29 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 080006
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM IS ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ST LOUIS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND DROPS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BE GUSTY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS COLD AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD..THE AIRMASS
COLUMN JUST OFF THE SURFACE COOLS QUICKLY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S...IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS LOW AS 1500FT AGL.
FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST COLUMN UP TO AROUND
700MB/-19C...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST COLUMN ARE STEEP DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT...AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...STARTING OUT AS
RAIN AND TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
FALLS BELOW FREEZING ENTIRELY...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...MOISTURE IS LACKING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN BANDS...POSSIBLY TRAINING ACROSS
THE SAME AREA AT TIMES. IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH...SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. FORECASTING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE BANDS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE SINCE ONE LOCATION
COULD SEE PRECIPITATION WHILE A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD REMAINS
DRY ALL DAY. GENERALLY...LIGHT AND NONUNIFORM ACCUMULATIONS COULD
BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION FALL. LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE MID 30S ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE...ONLY DIMINISHING TO 8-10MPH
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING CLOUD
COVER WITH IT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH A SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. DEPENDING ON TIMING...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE THOUGH TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT RAIN AT THIS TIME.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SWING FROM THE WEST TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE
AND ZIP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 12 KTS
AND GUSTY.

CEILINGS AROUND 4-6K FT WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES EVEN LOWER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT ALMOST ANYTIME. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FOR THE NORTHERN SITES...BUT
ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME THAT ANY TERMINAL WOULD
EXPERIENCE THIS WEATHER IS TOO LOW.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY
THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     34  47  27  35  23 /  20  30  30  20  10
ANNISTON    36  48  27  36  24 /  10  30  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  38  47  29  36  25 /  20  20  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  37  48  30  39  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      37  48  28  38  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
AUBURN      36  51  29  38  27 /  10  20  20  10   0
MONTGOMERY  37  53  30  42  28 /  10  20  10  10   0
TROY        37  55  30  42  29 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 080000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...A VFR FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD DECKS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINA`S...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND
BEING A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS
FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS
NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE
STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE
TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA...FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS ADVISORY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT/COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE KEEPS WINDS HIGHER
THERE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MONDAY.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS FORECAST FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
ALOFT IS SHALLOW DENOTED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES. THUS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL STORM/DYNAMICS IS AN ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE SHALLOW RH STRATA ALOFT.
/10

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CONTINUED WINDY
ALONG THE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE
TROPOSPHERIC FOLD STILL OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA. WINDS THOUGH MAY TAPER BACK
TO BREEZY IN OUR MORE PROTECTED INLAND WITH A MIXTURE OF SPOTTY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS AND EVEN LIGHT WINDS MIXED IN WHERE
ENOUGH COOLING CAN OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS TO SET UP A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT IN GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED AND ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GFS HAS TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL BOTTOMING OUT AT BETWEEN -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THOUGH WON`T PLUMMET TOO FAR DUE TO THE EFFICIENT
MIXING...GENERALLY MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND NEAR 30 TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S AND
PERHAPS LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. DRY...COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER E.G., GFS FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE CAA DOESN`T APPEAR THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
EFFICIENT COOLING SO TRENDED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS. /08

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BY THURSDAY HEIGHTS START TO
RISE ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE THAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THEN...BUT MORE LIKE A SPRINKLE. TEMPERATURE
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FRIDAY...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
MAINLY 50S ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING TO 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. /08

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS IN
ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON THIS PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FETCH...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN 7 TO 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO
10 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.
/10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-
     266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KMOB 080000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...A VFR FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD DECKS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINA`S...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND
BEING A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS
FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS
NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE
STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE
TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA...FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS ADVISORY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT/COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE KEEPS WINDS HIGHER
THERE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MONDAY.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS FORECAST FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
ALOFT IS SHALLOW DENOTED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES. THUS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL STORM/DYNAMICS IS AN ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE SHALLOW RH STRATA ALOFT.
/10

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CONTINUED WINDY
ALONG THE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE
TROPOSPHERIC FOLD STILL OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA. WINDS THOUGH MAY TAPER BACK
TO BREEZY IN OUR MORE PROTECTED INLAND WITH A MIXTURE OF SPOTTY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS AND EVEN LIGHT WINDS MIXED IN WHERE
ENOUGH COOLING CAN OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS TO SET UP A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT IN GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED AND ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GFS HAS TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL BOTTOMING OUT AT BETWEEN -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THOUGH WON`T PLUMMET TOO FAR DUE TO THE EFFICIENT
MIXING...GENERALLY MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND NEAR 30 TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S AND
PERHAPS LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. DRY...COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER E.G., GFS FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE CAA DOESN`T APPEAR THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
EFFICIENT COOLING SO TRENDED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS. /08

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BY THURSDAY HEIGHTS START TO
RISE ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE THAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THEN...BUT MORE LIKE A SPRINKLE. TEMPERATURE
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FRIDAY...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
MAINLY 50S ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING TO 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. /08

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS IN
ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON THIS PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FETCH...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN 7 TO 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO
10 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.
/10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-
     266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 072334 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
HOPE EVERYONE WAS ABLE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THIS WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN AS COLDER TEMPS
AND SNOW ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS ONE OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH HI RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN
BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT. ON TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BITTER COLD IN THE 30S...WHICH ARE VALUES NORMALLY
AROUND OUR SEASONAL LOWS! THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW AS PRECIP EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE ON WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. AS FOR
NIGHTTIME...MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDCHILL VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS...SO BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!

WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS RECENTLY...WARM SOIL TEMPS MAY HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF RIGHT NOW WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE...TO SCOTTSBORO...AND NEAR FORT PAYNE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL STARTING MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES. CLOUD HEIGHTS MAY LOWER CLOSER TO
4-5KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS MON...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE AREA. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO XPCTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NW
AROUND 12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG/BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 072334 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
HOPE EVERYONE WAS ABLE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THIS WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN AS COLDER TEMPS
AND SNOW ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS ONE OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH HI RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN
BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT. ON TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BITTER COLD IN THE 30S...WHICH ARE VALUES NORMALLY
AROUND OUR SEASONAL LOWS! THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW AS PRECIP EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE ON WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. AS FOR
NIGHTTIME...MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDCHILL VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS...SO BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!

WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS RECENTLY...WARM SOIL TEMPS MAY HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF RIGHT NOW WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE...TO SCOTTSBORO...AND NEAR FORT PAYNE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL STARTING MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES. CLOUD HEIGHTS MAY LOWER CLOSER TO
4-5KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS MON...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE AREA. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO XPCTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NW
AROUND 12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG/BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 072334 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
HOPE EVERYONE WAS ABLE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THIS WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN AS COLDER TEMPS
AND SNOW ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS ONE OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH HI RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN
BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT. ON TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BITTER COLD IN THE 30S...WHICH ARE VALUES NORMALLY
AROUND OUR SEASONAL LOWS! THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW AS PRECIP EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE ON WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. AS FOR
NIGHTTIME...MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDCHILL VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS...SO BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!

WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS RECENTLY...WARM SOIL TEMPS MAY HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF RIGHT NOW WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE...TO SCOTTSBORO...AND NEAR FORT PAYNE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL STARTING MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES. CLOUD HEIGHTS MAY LOWER CLOSER TO
4-5KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS MON...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE AREA. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO XPCTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NW
AROUND 12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG/BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 072226
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HOPE EVERYONE WAS ABLE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THIS WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN AS COLDER TEMPS
AND SNOW ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS ONE OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH HI RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN
BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT. ON TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BITTER COLD IN THE 30S...WHICH ARE VALUES NORMALLY
AROUND OUR SEASONAL LOWS! THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW AS PRECIP EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE ON WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. AS FOR
NIGHTTIME...MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDCHILL VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS...SO BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!

WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS RECENTLY...WARM SOIL TEMPS MAY HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF RIGHT NOW WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE...TO SCOTTSBORO...AND NEAR FORT PAYNE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL STARTING MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS THAT
WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE FOR MSL AND HSV AFTER
09Z. WILL KEEP IN LOWER CEILINGS IN RANGE OF 4KFT-5KFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    39  43  28  33 /  20  40  30  20
SHOALS        38  42  28  34 /  20  30  30  20
VINEMONT      38  41  26  32 /  20  30  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  35  40  26  29 /  20  50  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   36  42  28  31 /  20  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    35  42  26  30 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 072226
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINA`S...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND
BEING A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS
FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS
NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE
STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE
TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA...FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS ADVISORY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT/COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE KEEPS WINDS HIGHER
THERE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MONDAY.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS FORECAST FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
ALOFT IS SHALLOW DENOTED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES. THUS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL STORM/DYNAMICS IS AN ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE SHALLOW RH STRATA ALOFT.
/10



.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CONTINUED WINDY
ALONG THE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE
TROPOSPHERIC FOLD STILL OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA. WINDS THOUGH MAY TAPER BACK
TO BREEZY IN OUR MORE PROTECTED INLAND WITH A MIXTURE OF SPOTTY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS AND EVEN LIGHT WINDS MIXED IN WHERE
ENOUGH COOLING CAN OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS TO SET UP A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT IN GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED AND ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GFS HAS TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL BOTTOMING OUT AT BETWEEN -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THOUGH WON`T PLUMMET TOO FAR DUE TO THE EFFICIENT
MIXING...GENERALLY MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND NEAR 30 TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S AND
PERHAPS LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. DRY...COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER E.G., GFS FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE CAA DOESN`T APPEAR THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
EFFICIENT COOLING SO TRENDED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS. /08

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BY THURSDAY HEIGHTS START TO
RISE ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE THAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THEN...BUT MORE LIKE A SPRINKLE. TEMPERATURE
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FRIDAY...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
MAINLY 50S ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING TO 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. /08

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS IN
ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON THIS PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FETCH...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN 7 TO 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO
10 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.
/10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  56  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   41  57  33  48 /   0  10   0   0
DESTIN      45  58  36  50 /   0  10   0  10
EVERGREEN   35  55  29  45 /   0  10  10   0
WAYNESBORO  35  53  25  47 /   0  10   0   0
CAMDEN      37  53  29  44 /   0  10  10   0
CRESTVIEW   36  58  29  48 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-
     266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 072226
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HOPE EVERYONE WAS ABLE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THIS WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN AS COLDER TEMPS
AND SNOW ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS ONE OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH HI RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN
BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT. ON TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BITTER COLD IN THE 30S...WHICH ARE VALUES NORMALLY
AROUND OUR SEASONAL LOWS! THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW AS PRECIP EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE ON WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. AS FOR
NIGHTTIME...MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDCHILL VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS...SO BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!

WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS RECENTLY...WARM SOIL TEMPS MAY HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF RIGHT NOW WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE...TO SCOTTSBORO...AND NEAR FORT PAYNE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL STARTING MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS THAT
WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE FOR MSL AND HSV AFTER
09Z. WILL KEEP IN LOWER CEILINGS IN RANGE OF 4KFT-5KFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    39  43  28  33 /  20  40  30  20
SHOALS        38  42  28  34 /  20  30  30  20
VINEMONT      38  41  26  32 /  20  30  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  35  40  26  29 /  20  50  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   36  42  28  31 /  20  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    35  42  26  30 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 072226
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HOPE EVERYONE WAS ABLE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THIS WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN AS COLDER TEMPS
AND SNOW ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS ONE OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH HI RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN
BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT. ON TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BITTER COLD IN THE 30S...WHICH ARE VALUES NORMALLY
AROUND OUR SEASONAL LOWS! THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW AS PRECIP EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE ON WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. AS FOR
NIGHTTIME...MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDCHILL VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS...SO BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!

WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS RECENTLY...WARM SOIL TEMPS MAY HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF RIGHT NOW WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE...TO SCOTTSBORO...AND NEAR FORT PAYNE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL STARTING MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS THAT
WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE FOR MSL AND HSV AFTER
09Z. WILL KEEP IN LOWER CEILINGS IN RANGE OF 4KFT-5KFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    39  43  28  33 /  20  40  30  20
SHOALS        38  42  28  34 /  20  30  30  20
VINEMONT      38  41  26  32 /  20  30  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  35  40  26  29 /  20  50  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   36  42  28  31 /  20  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    35  42  26  30 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 072204
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
404 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM IS ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ST LOUIS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND DROPS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BE GUSTY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS COLD AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD..THE AIRMASS
COLUMN JUST OFF THE SURFACE COOLS QUICKLY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S...IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS LOW AS 1500FT AGL.
FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST COLUMN UP TO AROUND
700MB/-19C...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST COLUMN ARE STEEP DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT...AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...STARTING OUT AS
RAIN AND TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
FALLS BELOW FREEZING ENTIRELY...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...MOISTURE IS LACKING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN BANDS...POSSIBLY TRAINING ACROSS
THE SAME AREA AT TIMES. IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH...SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. FORECASTING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE BANDS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE SINCE ONE LOCATION
COULD SEE PRECIPITATION WHILE A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD REMAINS
DRY ALL DAY. GENERALLY...LIGHT AND NONUNIFORM ACCUMULATIONS COULD
BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION FALL. LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE MID 30S ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE...ONLY DIMINISHING TO 8-10MPH
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING CLOUD
COVER WITH IT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH A SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. DEPENDING ON TIMING...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE THOUGH TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT RAIN AT THIS TIME.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW...AND GUSTS ARE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH CIGS REMAINING JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY
THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     34  47  27  35  23 /  20  30  30  20  10
ANNISTON    36  48  27  36  24 /  10  30  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  38  47  29  36  25 /  20  20  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  37  48  30  39  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      37  48  28  38  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
AUBURN      36  51  29  38  27 /  10  20  20  10   0
MONTGOMERY  37  53  30  42  28 /  10  20  10  10   0
TROY        37  55  30  42  29 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 071749 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND BEING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55
KNOTS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM
AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDING
DATA...FORECASTERS ARE STRONGLY CONSIDERING ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES ARE NOT YET
DEFINED.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO THE
LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULATO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS ALOFT
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE OF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS VALUES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A NON- DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 071749 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND BEING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55
KNOTS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM
AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDING
DATA...FORECASTERS ARE STRONGLY CONSIDERING ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES ARE NOT YET
DEFINED.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO THE
LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULATO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS ALOFT
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE OF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS VALUES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A NON- DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 071749 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND BEING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55
KNOTS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM
AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDING
DATA...FORECASTERS ARE STRONGLY CONSIDERING ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES ARE NOT YET
DEFINED.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO THE
LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULATO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS ALOFT
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE OF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS VALUES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A NON- DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 071749 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND BEING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55
KNOTS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM
AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDING
DATA...FORECASTERS ARE STRONGLY CONSIDERING ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES ARE NOT YET
DEFINED.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO THE
LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULATO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS ALOFT
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE OF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS VALUES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A NON- DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 071749 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND BEING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55
KNOTS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM
AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDING
DATA...FORECASTERS ARE STRONGLY CONSIDERING ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES ARE NOT YET
DEFINED.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO THE
LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULATO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS ALOFT
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE OF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS VALUES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A NON- DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KBMX 071740
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR A SUPER DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEGINS TO SLIDE
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME IN PLACEMENT OF
THE BEST LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID WILL GO GENERALLY WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL..WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT RAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST AFTER 3 AM. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY IF NOT RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. WE COULD SEE THE MOISTURE A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

16

.LONG TERM....
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY. COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SPILL
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROF. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF
TROF AXIS ON MONDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEVER GET ABOVE ONE-THIRD ON
AN INCH...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FORECAST
POINT SOUNDINGS NORTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ALL IMPORTANT LAYER FROM -10 TO -18 CELSIUS...
WHICH SUPPORTS ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. FORECAST WILL SHOW A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THIS TIME SO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE AIR COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. AT MOST THERE MAY BE A DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE. THE
COLDEST MORNING TEMPS MAY BE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A 1035MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW...AND GUSTS ARE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH CIGS REMAINING JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED
WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 071740
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR A SUPER DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEGINS TO SLIDE
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME IN PLACEMENT OF
THE BEST LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID WILL GO GENERALLY WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL..WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT RAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST AFTER 3 AM. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY IF NOT RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. WE COULD SEE THE MOISTURE A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

16

.LONG TERM....
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY. COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SPILL
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROF. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF
TROF AXIS ON MONDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEVER GET ABOVE ONE-THIRD ON
AN INCH...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FORECAST
POINT SOUNDINGS NORTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ALL IMPORTANT LAYER FROM -10 TO -18 CELSIUS...
WHICH SUPPORTS ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. FORECAST WILL SHOW A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THIS TIME SO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE AIR COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. AT MOST THERE MAY BE A DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE. THE
COLDEST MORNING TEMPS MAY BE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A 1035MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW...AND GUSTS ARE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH CIGS REMAINING JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED
WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 071740
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR A SUPER DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEGINS TO SLIDE
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME IN PLACEMENT OF
THE BEST LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID WILL GO GENERALLY WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL..WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT RAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST AFTER 3 AM. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY IF NOT RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. WE COULD SEE THE MOISTURE A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

16

.LONG TERM....
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY. COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SPILL
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROF. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF
TROF AXIS ON MONDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEVER GET ABOVE ONE-THIRD ON
AN INCH...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FORECAST
POINT SOUNDINGS NORTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ALL IMPORTANT LAYER FROM -10 TO -18 CELSIUS...
WHICH SUPPORTS ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. FORECAST WILL SHOW A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THIS TIME SO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE AIR COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. AT MOST THERE MAY BE A DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE. THE
COLDEST MORNING TEMPS MAY BE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A 1035MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW...AND GUSTS ARE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH CIGS REMAINING JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED
WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 071740
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR A SUPER DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEGINS TO SLIDE
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME IN PLACEMENT OF
THE BEST LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID WILL GO GENERALLY WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL..WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT RAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST AFTER 3 AM. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY IF NOT RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. WE COULD SEE THE MOISTURE A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

16

.LONG TERM....
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY. COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SPILL
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROF. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF
TROF AXIS ON MONDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEVER GET ABOVE ONE-THIRD ON
AN INCH...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FORECAST
POINT SOUNDINGS NORTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ALL IMPORTANT LAYER FROM -10 TO -18 CELSIUS...
WHICH SUPPORTS ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. FORECAST WILL SHOW A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THIS TIME SO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE AIR COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. AT MOST THERE MAY BE A DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE. THE
COLDEST MORNING TEMPS MAY BE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A 1035MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW...AND GUSTS ARE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH CIGS REMAINING JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED
WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 071740
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR A SUPER DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEGINS TO SLIDE
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME IN PLACEMENT OF
THE BEST LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID WILL GO GENERALLY WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL..WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT RAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST AFTER 3 AM. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY IF NOT RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. WE COULD SEE THE MOISTURE A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

16

.LONG TERM....
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY. COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SPILL
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROF. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF
TROF AXIS ON MONDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEVER GET ABOVE ONE-THIRD ON
AN INCH...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FORECAST
POINT SOUNDINGS NORTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ALL IMPORTANT LAYER FROM -10 TO -18 CELSIUS...
WHICH SUPPORTS ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. FORECAST WILL SHOW A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THIS TIME SO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE AIR COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. AT MOST THERE MAY BE A DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE. THE
COLDEST MORNING TEMPS MAY BE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A 1035MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW...AND GUSTS ARE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH CIGS REMAINING JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED
WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 071727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1039 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH KEPT COLDER AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING EAST INTO MISSOURI. WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPING AS A RESULT NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. ALTHOUGH SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING EAST OVER
ACROSS NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...THIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO
GEORGIA THROUGH NOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALOFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPERATURES...RAISED HIGHS A BIT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SOME INCREASING WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS THAT
WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE FOR MSL AND HSV AFTER
09Z. WILL KEEP IN LOWER CEILINGS IN RANGE OF 4KFT-5KFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 071727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1039 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH KEPT COLDER AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING EAST INTO MISSOURI. WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPING AS A RESULT NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. ALTHOUGH SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING EAST OVER
ACROSS NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...THIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO
GEORGIA THROUGH NOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALOFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPERATURES...RAISED HIGHS A BIT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SOME INCREASING WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS THAT
WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE FOR MSL AND HSV AFTER
09Z. WILL KEEP IN LOWER CEILINGS IN RANGE OF 4KFT-5KFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 071727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1039 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH KEPT COLDER AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING EAST INTO MISSOURI. WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPING AS A RESULT NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. ALTHOUGH SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING EAST OVER
ACROSS NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...THIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO
GEORGIA THROUGH NOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALOFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPERATURES...RAISED HIGHS A BIT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SOME INCREASING WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS THAT
WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE FOR MSL AND HSV AFTER
09Z. WILL KEEP IN LOWER CEILINGS IN RANGE OF 4KFT-5KFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 071639 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1039 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...TO RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH KEPT COLDER AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING EAST INTO MISSOURI. WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPING AS A RESULT NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. ALTHOUGH SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING EAST OVER
ACROSS NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...THIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO
GEORGIA THROUGH NOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALOFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPERATURES...RAISED HIGHS A BIT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SOME INCREASING WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 504 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -RA MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHSV/KMSL BTWN 09Z-12Z AND THEN ESPECIALLY
AFTER 12Z AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 071639 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1039 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...TO RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH KEPT COLDER AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING EAST INTO MISSOURI. WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPING AS A RESULT NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. ALTHOUGH SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING EAST OVER
ACROSS NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...THIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO
GEORGIA THROUGH NOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALOFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPERATURES...RAISED HIGHS A BIT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SOME INCREASING WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 504 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -RA MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHSV/KMSL BTWN 09Z-12Z AND THEN ESPECIALLY
AFTER 12Z AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 071128
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR A SUPER DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEGINS TO SLIDE
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME IN PLACEMENT OF
THE BEST LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID WILL GO GENERALLY WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL..WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT RAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST AFTER 3 AM. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY IF NOT RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. WE COULD SEE THE MOISTURE A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

16

.LONG TERM....
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY. COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SPILL
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROF. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF
TROF AXIS ON MONDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEVER GET ABOVE ONE-THIRD ON
AN INCH...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FORECAST
POINT SOUNDINGS NORTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ALL IMPORTANT LAYER FROM -10 TO -18 CELSIUS...
WHICH SUPPORTS ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. FORECAST WILL SHOW A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THIS TIME SO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE AIR COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. AT MOST THERE MAY BE A DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE. THE
COLDEST MORNING TEMPS MAY BE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A 1035MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON AROUND 7 KTS. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH A
POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS...BUT REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THIS CYCLE.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED
WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  34  45  27  36 /   0  20  40  20  20
ANNISTON    55  36  47  28  37 /   0  10  40  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  56  38  46  29  38 /   0  10  30  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  36  48  29  41 /   0  10  20  10  10
CALERA      57  37  47  29  39 /   0  10  20  10  10
AUBURN      56  36  50  29  40 /   0  10  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  37  53  31  45 /   0   0  20  10  10
TROY        58  37  56  30  45 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 071128
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR A SUPER DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEGINS TO SLIDE
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME IN PLACEMENT OF
THE BEST LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID WILL GO GENERALLY WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL..WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT RAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST AFTER 3 AM. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY IF NOT RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. WE COULD SEE THE MOISTURE A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

16

.LONG TERM....
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY. COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SPILL
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROF. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF
TROF AXIS ON MONDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEVER GET ABOVE ONE-THIRD ON
AN INCH...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FORECAST
POINT SOUNDINGS NORTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ALL IMPORTANT LAYER FROM -10 TO -18 CELSIUS...
WHICH SUPPORTS ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. FORECAST WILL SHOW A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THIS TIME SO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE AIR COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. AT MOST THERE MAY BE A DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE. THE
COLDEST MORNING TEMPS MAY BE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A 1035MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON AROUND 7 KTS. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH A
POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS...BUT REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THIS CYCLE.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED
WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  34  45  27  36 /   0  20  40  20  20
ANNISTON    55  36  47  28  37 /   0  10  40  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  56  38  46  29  38 /   0  10  30  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  36  48  29  41 /   0  10  20  10  10
CALERA      57  37  47  29  39 /   0  10  20  10  10
AUBURN      56  36  50  29  40 /   0  10  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  37  53  31  45 /   0   0  20  10  10
TROY        58  37  56  30  45 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 071117
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KMOB 071117
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 071104 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
504 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 152 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
AT 07Z, A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST
TX THRU MIDDLE TN AND INTO PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A RATHER
STRONG TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST, JUST PASSING EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SEVERAL WAVES WITHIN NW FLOW
ENTERING THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

ANOTHER NICE WX DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE
L-M50S. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND LFQ OF POLAR JET AXIS ARRIVES. DIVERGENCE ALOFT
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE UVVS TO SUPPORT PRECIP.
THE QUESTION IS LOW LEVEL MOISTENING. THE NAM IS EXTREMELY DRY AND
FORECASTS NO PRECIP TONIGHT. EVEN THE GFS MOS IS QUITE LOW WITH POPS,
ALTHOUGH THE RAW FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. FIRST "WAVE" OF
PRECIP OR VIRGA WILL SLIDE SE OF THE AREA QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. THEN THE STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
GENERATING SOME LIMITED CAPE FOR SHOWERY PRECIP. OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF SHOWERY PRECIP
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN SRN TN AND FAR NERN AL. PRECIP
SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO -SHSN ATOP THE PLATEAU MONDAY AFTN. A
SECONDARY VORT LOBE DROPS SE RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING INTO KY/MIDDLE
TN. THIS ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PLATEAU MAY PRODUCE
PERSISTENT -SHSN IN SOME AREAS. BUT PINNING THE AREAL COVERAGE
REMAINS A QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
FOR NOW. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE PLATEAU IN
LATER UPDATES IF THE CONFIDENCE IN POP GOES UP, PARTICULARLY WITH
AREAL COVERAGE.

AFTER A COLD DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER TROF RETREATS ITS GRIP OVER
THE TN VALLEY BY THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE 40S TO
L50S AT LEAST ON THURSDAY (THE ECMWF SUGGESTS EVEN WARMER). LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP MAY DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AS A NWLY FLOW
SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH A W-SW SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR -SN/FZRA INITIALLY,
BUT SIDING WITH THE WARMER ECWMF AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY WITH A
BLENDED POP OF ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE NEW ECWMF SHOWS -SHSN
POTENTIAL WITH THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -RA MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHSV/KMSL BTWN 09Z-12Z AND THEN ESPECIALLY
AFTER 12Z AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 071057
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

.MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  39  55  32 /   0   0  10  10
PENSACOLA   59  41  57  34 /   0   0  10  10
DESTIN      58  45  58  38 /   0   0  10  10
EVERGREEN   58  36  54  31 /   0   0  10  10
WAYNESBORO  61  35  53  29 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN      58  37  52  31 /   0   0  10  10
CRESTVIEW   60  37  57  32 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KBMX 070920
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016


.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR A SUPER DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEGINS TO SLIDE
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME IN PLACEMENT OF
THE BEST LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID WILL GO GENERALLY WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL..WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT RAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST AFTER 3 AM. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY IF NOT RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. WE COULD SEE THE MOISTURE A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

16

&&

.LONG TERM....
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY. COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SPILL
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROF. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF
TROF AXIS ON MONDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEVER GET ABOVE ONE-THIRD ON
AN INCH...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FORECAST
POINT SOUNDINGS NORTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ALL IMPORTANT LAYER FROM -10 TO -18 CELSIUS...
WHICH SUPPORTS ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. FORECAST WILL SHOW A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THIS TIME SO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE AIR COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. AT MOST THERE MAY BE A DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE. THE
COLDEST MORNING TEMPS MAY BE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A 1035MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
CEILINGS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED
WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  34  45  27  36 /   0  20  40  20  20
ANNISTON    55  36  47  28  37 /   0  10  40  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  56  38  46  29  38 /   0  10  30  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  36  48  29  41 /   0  10  20  10  10
CALERA      57  37  47  29  39 /   0  10  20  10  10
AUBURN      56  36  50  29  40 /   0  10  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  37  53  31  45 /   0   0  20  10  10
TROY        58  37  56  30  45 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 070920
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016


.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR A SUPER DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEGINS TO SLIDE
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME IN PLACEMENT OF
THE BEST LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID WILL GO GENERALLY WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL..WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT RAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST AFTER 3 AM. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY IF NOT RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. WE COULD SEE THE MOISTURE A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

16

&&

.LONG TERM....
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY. COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SPILL
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROF. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF
TROF AXIS ON MONDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEVER GET ABOVE ONE-THIRD ON
AN INCH...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FORECAST
POINT SOUNDINGS NORTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ALL IMPORTANT LAYER FROM -10 TO -18 CELSIUS...
WHICH SUPPORTS ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. FORECAST WILL SHOW A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THIS TIME SO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE AIR COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. AT MOST THERE MAY BE A DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE. THE
COLDEST MORNING TEMPS MAY BE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A 1035MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
CEILINGS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED
WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  34  45  27  36 /   0  20  40  20  20
ANNISTON    55  36  47  28  37 /   0  10  40  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  56  38  46  29  38 /   0  10  30  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  36  48  29  41 /   0  10  20  10  10
CALERA      57  37  47  29  39 /   0  10  20  10  10
AUBURN      56  36  50  29  40 /   0  10  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  37  53  31  45 /   0   0  20  10  10
TROY        58  37  56  30  45 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 070920
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016


.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR A SUPER DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEGINS TO SLIDE
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME IN PLACEMENT OF
THE BEST LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID WILL GO GENERALLY WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL..WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT RAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST AFTER 3 AM. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY IF NOT RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. WE COULD SEE THE MOISTURE A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

16

&&

.LONG TERM....
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY. COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SPILL
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROF. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF
TROF AXIS ON MONDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEVER GET ABOVE ONE-THIRD ON
AN INCH...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FORECAST
POINT SOUNDINGS NORTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ALL IMPORTANT LAYER FROM -10 TO -18 CELSIUS...
WHICH SUPPORTS ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. FORECAST WILL SHOW A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THIS TIME SO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE AIR COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. AT MOST THERE MAY BE A DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE. THE
COLDEST MORNING TEMPS MAY BE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A 1035MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
CEILINGS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED
WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  34  45  27  36 /   0  20  40  20  20
ANNISTON    55  36  47  28  37 /   0  10  40  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  56  38  46  29  38 /   0  10  30  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  36  48  29  41 /   0  10  20  10  10
CALERA      57  37  47  29  39 /   0  10  20  10  10
AUBURN      56  36  50  29  40 /   0  10  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  37  53  31  45 /   0   0  20  10  10
TROY        58  37  56  30  45 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 070752
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
152 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z, A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST
TX THRU MIDDLE TN AND INTO PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A RATHER
STRONG TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST, JUST PASSING EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SEVERAL WAVES WITHIN NW FLOW
ENTERING THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

ANOTHER NICE WX DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE
L-M50S. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND LFQ OF POLAR JET AXIS ARRIVES. DIVERGENCE ALOFT
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE UVVS TO SUPPORT PRECIP.
THE QUESTION IS LOW LEVEL MOISTENING. THE NAM IS EXTREMELY DRY AND
FORECASTS NO PRECIP TONIGHT. EVEN THE GFS MOS IS QUITE LOW WITH POPS,
ALTHOUGH THE RAW FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. FIRST "WAVE" OF
PRECIP OR VIRGA WILL SLIDE SE OF THE AREA QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. THEN THE STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
GENERATING SOME LIMITED CAPE FOR SHOWERY PRECIP. OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF SHOWERY PRECIP
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN SRN TN AND FAR NERN AL. PRECIP
SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO -SHSN ATOP THE PLATEAU MONDAY AFTN. A
SECONDARY VORT LOBE DROPS SE RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING INTO KY/MIDDLE
TN. THIS ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PLATEAU MAY PRODUCE
PERSISTENT -SHSN IN SOME AREAS. BUT PINNING THE AREAL COVERAGE
REMAINS A QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
FOR NOW. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE PLATEAU IN
LATER UPDATES IF THE CONFIDENCE IN POP GOES UP, PARTICULARLY WITH
AREAL COVERAGE.

AFTER A COLD DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER TROF RETREATS ITS GRIP OVER
THE TN VALLEY BY THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE 40S TO
L50S AT LEAST ON THURSDAY (THE ECMWF SUGGESTS EVEN WARMER). LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP MAY DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AS A NWLY FLOW
SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH A W-SW SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR -SN/FZRA INITIALLY,
BUT SIDING WITH THE WARMER ECWMF AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY WITH A
BLENDED POP OF ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE NEW ECWMF SHOWS -SHSN
POTENTIAL WITH THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1049 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE AL WILL BE EAST OF THE STATE BY
SUNDAY MRNG. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. CI/AC CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ARND 00Z AS A UPPER TROF/CDFNT
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CWA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    55  39  43  28 /   0  20  30  30
SHOALS        55  38  42  28 /   0  10  30  20
VINEMONT      54  38  41  26 /   0  10  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  52  35  40  26 /   0  20  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   53  36  42  28 /   0  10  30  30
FORT PAYNE    52  35  42  26 /   0  20  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 070545
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. /21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 070545
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. /21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 070545
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. /21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KBMX 070540
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO TENNESSEE AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS JUST SE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THEREFORE NOT HAVE
MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES BY
A COUPLE DEGREES IN SOME AREAS BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS WITH UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SOME VARIATION
BETWEEN THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS THAT DECOUPLE AND OTHER AREAS
WHERE A FEW KNOTS OF WIND WILL PERSIST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
CEILINGS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 408 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD INTO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EASTERN TEXAS. TONIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS WILL DROP
TO MID 20S.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS ENERGY ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

A FEW THINGS STICK OUT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL VERY
QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MOIST LAYER IS
ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT TODAYS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE A QUICK DUSTING MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION IS SLOWER AT THE SURFACE...WHICH REMAINS
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWEST 1-2KFT DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE IN LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS. WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. ANOTHER COUPLE COLD NIGHTS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  54  35  45  27 /   0   0  20  40  20
ANNISTON    29  55  37  47  28 /   0   0  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  30  55  38  46  29 /   0   0  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  28  57  37  48  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
CALERA      31  56  37  47  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      32  55  37  50  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  31  58  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        31  57  38  56  30 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 070540
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO TENNESSEE AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS JUST SE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THEREFORE NOT HAVE
MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES BY
A COUPLE DEGREES IN SOME AREAS BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS WITH UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SOME VARIATION
BETWEEN THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS THAT DECOUPLE AND OTHER AREAS
WHERE A FEW KNOTS OF WIND WILL PERSIST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
CEILINGS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 408 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD INTO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EASTERN TEXAS. TONIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS WILL DROP
TO MID 20S.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS ENERGY ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

A FEW THINGS STICK OUT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL VERY
QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MOIST LAYER IS
ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT TODAYS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE A QUICK DUSTING MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION IS SLOWER AT THE SURFACE...WHICH REMAINS
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWEST 1-2KFT DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE IN LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS. WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. ANOTHER COUPLE COLD NIGHTS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  54  35  45  27 /   0   0  20  40  20
ANNISTON    29  55  37  47  28 /   0   0  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  30  55  38  46  29 /   0   0  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  28  57  37  48  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
CALERA      31  56  37  47  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      32  55  37  50  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  31  58  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        31  57  38  56  30 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 070540
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO TENNESSEE AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS JUST SE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THEREFORE NOT HAVE
MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES BY
A COUPLE DEGREES IN SOME AREAS BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS WITH UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SOME VARIATION
BETWEEN THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS THAT DECOUPLE AND OTHER AREAS
WHERE A FEW KNOTS OF WIND WILL PERSIST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
CEILINGS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 408 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD INTO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EASTERN TEXAS. TONIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS WILL DROP
TO MID 20S.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS ENERGY ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

A FEW THINGS STICK OUT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL VERY
QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MOIST LAYER IS
ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT TODAYS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE A QUICK DUSTING MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION IS SLOWER AT THE SURFACE...WHICH REMAINS
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWEST 1-2KFT DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE IN LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS. WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. ANOTHER COUPLE COLD NIGHTS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  54  35  45  27 /   0   0  20  40  20
ANNISTON    29  55  37  47  28 /   0   0  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  30  55  38  46  29 /   0   0  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  28  57  37  48  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
CALERA      31  56  37  47  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      32  55  37  50  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  31  58  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        31  57  38  56  30 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 070449
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1049 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 856 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
UPPER LOW OVER AL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLOUDS NOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY TO DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SCT CLOUDS ARND OVERNIGHT THAT MAY
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS VALUES. OVERALL EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO BE ARND 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. THUS WILL KEEP CURRENT
LOWS AS IS. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE AL WILL BE EAST OF THE STATE BY
SUNDAY MRNG. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. CI/AC CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ARND 00Z AS A UPPER TROF/CDFNT
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CWA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 070346
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
946 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO TENNESSEE AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS JUST SE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THEREFORE NOT HAVE
MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES BY
A COUPLE DEGREES IN SOME AREAS BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS WITH UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SOME VARIATION
BETWEEN THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS THAT DECOUPLE AND OTHER AREAS
WHERE A FEW KNOTS OF WIND WILL PERSIST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 408 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD INTO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EASTERN TEXAS. TONIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS WILL DROP
TO MID 20S.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS ENERGY ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

A FEW THINGS STICK OUT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL VERY
QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MOIST LAYER IS
ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT TODAYS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE A QUICK DUSTING MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION IS SLOWER AT THE SURFACE...WHICH REMAINS
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWEST 1-2KFT DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE IN LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS. WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. ANOTHER COUPLE COLD NIGHTS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  54  35  45  27 /   0   0  20  40  20
ANNISTON    29  55  37  47  28 /   0   0  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  30  55  38  46  29 /   0   0  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  28  57  37  48  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
CALERA      31  56  37  47  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      32  55  37  50  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  31  58  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        31  57  38  56  30 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 070346
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
946 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO TENNESSEE AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS JUST SE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THEREFORE NOT HAVE
MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES BY
A COUPLE DEGREES IN SOME AREAS BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS WITH UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SOME VARIATION
BETWEEN THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS THAT DECOUPLE AND OTHER AREAS
WHERE A FEW KNOTS OF WIND WILL PERSIST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 408 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD INTO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EASTERN TEXAS. TONIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS WILL DROP
TO MID 20S.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS ENERGY ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

A FEW THINGS STICK OUT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL VERY
QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MOIST LAYER IS
ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT TODAYS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE A QUICK DUSTING MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION IS SLOWER AT THE SURFACE...WHICH REMAINS
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWEST 1-2KFT DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE IN LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS. WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. ANOTHER COUPLE COLD NIGHTS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  54  35  45  27 /   0   0  20  40  20
ANNISTON    29  55  37  47  28 /   0   0  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  30  55  38  46  29 /   0   0  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  28  57  37  48  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
CALERA      31  56  37  47  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      32  55  37  50  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  31  58  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        31  57  38  56  30 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 070346
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
946 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO TENNESSEE AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS JUST SE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THEREFORE NOT HAVE
MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES BY
A COUPLE DEGREES IN SOME AREAS BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS WITH UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SOME VARIATION
BETWEEN THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS THAT DECOUPLE AND OTHER AREAS
WHERE A FEW KNOTS OF WIND WILL PERSIST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 408 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD INTO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EASTERN TEXAS. TONIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS WILL DROP
TO MID 20S.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS ENERGY ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

A FEW THINGS STICK OUT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL VERY
QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MOIST LAYER IS
ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT TODAYS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE A QUICK DUSTING MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION IS SLOWER AT THE SURFACE...WHICH REMAINS
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWEST 1-2KFT DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE IN LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS. WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. ANOTHER COUPLE COLD NIGHTS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  54  35  45  27 /   0   0  20  40  20
ANNISTON    29  55  37  47  28 /   0   0  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  30  55  38  46  29 /   0   0  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  28  57  37  48  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
CALERA      31  56  37  47  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      32  55  37  50  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  31  58  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        31  57  38  56  30 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 070256
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
856 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER AL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLOUDS NOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY TO DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SCT CLOUDS ARND OVERNIGHT THAT MAY
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS VALUES. OVERALL EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO BE ARND 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. THUS WILL KEEP CURRENT
LOWS AS IS. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 517 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN
TO DIMINISH FROM THE W HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS...WITH VFR
CONDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 437 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
THE TREND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY HAS BEEN PASSING SCT/BKN CLOUDS
WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S
AND START OUT DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
EVENING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL REMAIN AS RAIN UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BEGIN FIRST. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A MIX BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH
IS OUR SEASONABLE LOWS! AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 070006
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD INTO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EASTERN TEXAS. TONIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS WILL DROP
TO MID 20S.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS ENERGY ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

A FEW THINGS STICK OUT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL VERY
QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MOIST LAYER IS
ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT TODAYS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE A QUICK DUSTING MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION IS SLOWER AT THE SURFACE...WHICH REMAINS
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWEST 1-2KFT DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE IN LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS. WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. ANOTHER COUPLE COLD NIGHTS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  54  35  45  27 /   0   0  20  40  20
ANNISTON    29  55  37  47  28 /   0   0  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  33  55  38  46  29 /   0   0  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  28  57  37  48  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
CALERA      32  56  37  47  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      32  55  37  50  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  31  58  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        31  57  38  56  30 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 070006
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD INTO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EASTERN TEXAS. TONIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS WILL DROP
TO MID 20S.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS ENERGY ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

A FEW THINGS STICK OUT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL VERY
QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MOIST LAYER IS
ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT TODAYS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE A QUICK DUSTING MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION IS SLOWER AT THE SURFACE...WHICH REMAINS
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWEST 1-2KFT DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE IN LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS. WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. ANOTHER COUPLE COLD NIGHTS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  54  35  45  27 /   0   0  20  40  20
ANNISTON    29  55  37  47  28 /   0   0  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  33  55  38  46  29 /   0   0  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  28  57  37  48  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
CALERA      32  56  37  47  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      32  55  37  50  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  31  58  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        31  57  38  56  30 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 070006
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD INTO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EASTERN TEXAS. TONIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS WILL DROP
TO MID 20S.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS ENERGY ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

A FEW THINGS STICK OUT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL VERY
QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MOIST LAYER IS
ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT TODAYS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE A QUICK DUSTING MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION IS SLOWER AT THE SURFACE...WHICH REMAINS
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWEST 1-2KFT DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE IN LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS. WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. ANOTHER COUPLE COLD NIGHTS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  54  35  45  27 /   0   0  20  40  20
ANNISTON    29  55  37  47  28 /   0   0  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  33  55  38  46  29 /   0   0  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  28  57  37  48  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
CALERA      32  56  37  47  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      32  55  37  50  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  31  58  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        31  57  38  56  30 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 070006
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD INTO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EASTERN TEXAS. TONIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS WILL DROP
TO MID 20S.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS ENERGY ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

A FEW THINGS STICK OUT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL VERY
QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MOIST LAYER IS
ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT TODAYS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE A QUICK DUSTING MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION IS SLOWER AT THE SURFACE...WHICH REMAINS
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWEST 1-2KFT DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE IN LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS. WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. ANOTHER COUPLE COLD NIGHTS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  54  35  45  27 /   0   0  20  40  20
ANNISTON    29  55  37  47  28 /   0   0  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  33  55  38  46  29 /   0   0  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  28  57  37  48  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
CALERA      32  56  37  47  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      32  55  37  50  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  31  58  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        31  57  38  56  30 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 070006
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD INTO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EASTERN TEXAS. TONIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS WILL DROP
TO MID 20S.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS ENERGY ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

A FEW THINGS STICK OUT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL VERY
QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MOIST LAYER IS
ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT TODAYS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE A QUICK DUSTING MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION IS SLOWER AT THE SURFACE...WHICH REMAINS
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWEST 1-2KFT DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE IN LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS. WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. ANOTHER COUPLE COLD NIGHTS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  54  35  45  27 /   0   0  20  40  20
ANNISTON    29  55  37  47  28 /   0   0  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  33  55  38  46  29 /   0   0  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  28  57  37  48  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
CALERA      32  56  37  47  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      32  55  37  50  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  31  58  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        31  57  38  56  30 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 062350
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
550 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BASE OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 062350
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
550 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BASE OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 062350
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
550 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BASE OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KHUN 062317 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
517 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 437 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
THE TREND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY HAS BEEN PASSING SCT/BKN CLOUDS
WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S
AND START OUT DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
EVENING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL REMAIN AS RAIN UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BEGIN FIRST. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A MIX BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH
IS OUR SEASONABLE LOWS! AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN
TO DIMINISH FROM THE W HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS...WITH VFR
CONDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 062317 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
517 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 437 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
THE TREND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY HAS BEEN PASSING SCT/BKN CLOUDS
WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S
AND START OUT DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
EVENING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL REMAIN AS RAIN UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BEGIN FIRST. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A MIX BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH
IS OUR SEASONABLE LOWS! AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN
TO DIMINISH FROM THE W HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS...WITH VFR
CONDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 062237
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
437 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE TREND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY HAS BEEN PASSING SCT/BKN CLOUDS
WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S
AND START OUT DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
EVENING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL REMAIN AS RAIN UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BEGIN FIRST. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A MIX BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH
IS OUR SEASONABLE LOWS! AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    31  55  37  42 /   0   0  20  30
SHOALS        31  56  36  41 /   0   0  20  30
VINEMONT      30  54  37  41 /   0   0  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  29  54  36  40 /   0   0  30  40
ALBERTVILLE   31  55  36  42 /   0   0  20  30
FORT PAYNE    28  56  35  42 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 062237
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
437 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE TREND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY HAS BEEN PASSING SCT/BKN CLOUDS
WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S
AND START OUT DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
EVENING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL REMAIN AS RAIN UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BEGIN FIRST. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A MIX BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH
IS OUR SEASONABLE LOWS! AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    31  55  37  42 /   0   0  20  30
SHOALS        31  56  36  41 /   0   0  20  30
VINEMONT      30  54  37  41 /   0   0  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  29  54  36  40 /   0   0  30  40
ALBERTVILLE   31  55  36  42 /   0   0  20  30
FORT PAYNE    28  56  35  42 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 062237
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
437 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE TREND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY HAS BEEN PASSING SCT/BKN CLOUDS
WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S
AND START OUT DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
EVENING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL REMAIN AS RAIN UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BEGIN FIRST. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A MIX BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH
IS OUR SEASONABLE LOWS! AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    31  55  37  42 /   0   0  20  30
SHOALS        31  56  36  41 /   0   0  20  30
VINEMONT      30  54  37  41 /   0   0  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  29  54  36  40 /   0   0  30  40
ALBERTVILLE   31  55  36  42 /   0   0  20  30
FORT PAYNE    28  56  35  42 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 062208
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
408 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD INTO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EASTERN TEXAS. TONIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS WILL DROP
TO MID 20S.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS ENERGY ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

A FEW THINGS STICK OUT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL VERY
QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MOIST LAYER IS
ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. LOOKING AT TODAYS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE A QUICK DUSTING MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION IS SLOWER AT THE SURFACE...WHICH REMAINS
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWEST 1-2KFT DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE IN LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS. WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. ANOTHER COUPLE COLD NIGHTS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS ROUGHLY AROUND 15K. VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  54  35  45  27 /   0   0  20  40  20
ANNISTON    29  55  37  47  28 /   0   0  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  33  55  38  46  29 /   0   0  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  28  57  37  48  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
CALERA      32  56  37  47  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      32  55  37  50  29 /   0   0  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  31  58  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        31  57  38  56  30 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 062159 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      31  57  39  54 /   0   0   0  10
PENSACOLA   34  56  41  55 /   0   0   0  10
DESTIN      39  56  45  56 /   0   0   0  10
EVERGREEN   30  57  36  52 /   0   0  10  10
WAYNESBORO  28  58  35  51 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN      29  57  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
CRESTVIEW   31  58  37  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 062159 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      31  57  39  54 /   0   0   0  10
PENSACOLA   34  56  41  55 /   0   0   0  10
DESTIN      39  56  45  56 /   0   0   0  10
EVERGREEN   30  57  36  52 /   0   0  10  10
WAYNESBORO  28  58  35  51 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN      29  57  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
CRESTVIEW   31  58  37  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KMOB 062159 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      31  57  39  54 /   0   0   0  10
PENSACOLA   34  56  41  55 /   0   0   0  10
DESTIN      39  56  45  56 /   0   0   0  10
EVERGREEN   30  57  36  52 /   0   0  10  10
WAYNESBORO  28  58  35  51 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN      29  57  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
CRESTVIEW   31  58  37  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KMOB 062159 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      31  57  39  54 /   0   0   0  10
PENSACOLA   34  56  41  55 /   0   0   0  10
DESTIN      39  56  45  56 /   0   0   0  10
EVERGREEN   30  57  36  52 /   0   0  10  10
WAYNESBORO  28  58  35  51 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN      29  57  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
CRESTVIEW   31  58  37  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KMOB 062159 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      31  57  39  54 /   0   0   0  10
PENSACOLA   34  56  41  55 /   0   0   0  10
DESTIN      39  56  45  56 /   0   0   0  10
EVERGREEN   30  57  36  52 /   0   0  10  10
WAYNESBORO  28  58  35  51 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN      29  57  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
CRESTVIEW   31  58  37  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KMOB 062141
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
341 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      31  57  39  54 /   0   0   0  10
PENSACOLA   34  56  41  55 /   0   0   0  10
DESTIN      39  56  45  56 /   0   0   0  10
EVERGREEN   30  57  36  52 /   0   0  10  10
WAYNESBORO  28  58  35  51 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN      29  57  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
CRESTVIEW   31  58  37  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



000
FXUS64 KMOB 062141
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
341 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      31  57  39  54 /   0   0   0  10
PENSACOLA   34  56  41  55 /   0   0   0  10
DESTIN      39  56  45  56 /   0   0   0  10
EVERGREEN   30  57  36  52 /   0   0  10  10
WAYNESBORO  28  58  35  51 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN      29  57  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
CRESTVIEW   31  58  37  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 062141
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
341 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      31  57  39  54 /   0   0   0  10
PENSACOLA   34  56  41  55 /   0   0   0  10
DESTIN      39  56  45  56 /   0   0   0  10
EVERGREEN   30  57  36  52 /   0   0  10  10
WAYNESBORO  28  58  35  51 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN      29  57  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
CRESTVIEW   31  58  37  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 061738
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1138 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /BUTTS/

&&

.AVIATION...

SCTD MAINLY MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
(WEAKENING COLD FRONT) MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANY CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. AS SUCH...VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 07/1800 UTC. WINDS WILL
REMAIN N-NE AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS MAY BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AT TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
/BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. CLOUD
DECK ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING RE-ENFORCING WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
VFR MINIMUMS.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS
OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS VERY LOW
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCHES)...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF CHOICE IN THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AGAIN BELOW SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TONIGHT...WITH THE
COOLER AIR BEING REINFORCED...EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...SHORTWAVE WILL BE
EXITING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER
THE UPPER PLAINS/MIDWEST STATES WILL BEGINNING CARVING OUT A DEEPER
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE DEEP LONG
WAVE TROF WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER OUR AREA. THIS ENERGY WILL
PUSH ANOTHER SFC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...BUT A VERY DRY
AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER NO MORE THAN 0.35 INCHES) IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NON EXISTENT WITH THE FROPA. MAY
SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THAT IS IT. SFC
WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME WEST OR EVEN SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON
SUNDAY...COOLING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE COAST. A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE
INTERIOR (UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S) AND IN THE MID 30S AT THE COAST.
12/DS

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE BROAD UPPER TROF WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL BE WEAKENING...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE
U.S. ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...BRINING YET ANOTHER SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE FCST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A LARGE
AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY. SFC WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
FRIDAY. COOLEST DAY DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MOST LOCATIONS
(ALTHOUGH MAYBE SOME LOWER 50S ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS). HIGH
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE PERIODS OF
RETURN FLOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY....AND THEN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FRIDAY AS GULF RETURN FLOW SETS UP MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. MORE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT
THE COAST. SAME MODERATING TREND WITH REGARD TO OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WARMING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S INTERIOR AND LOWER 50S COASTAL BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE....A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS AREA
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW
BECOMING STRONG. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
EASING THE OFFSHORE FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE GULF MARINE ZONES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER THE MARINE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL LAST INTO MID WEEK...MAINLY OVER UNPROTECTED WATERS.
16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KBMX 061725
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR FRIDAYS VALUES WITH 50S AREAWIDE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND BRING A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
INTO ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE A
DISTINCT COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MORE LIKE A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS FALL. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES
SHOW TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE
COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
NO ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP INTO A TROF AND SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS ROUGHLY AROUND 15K. VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 061725
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR FRIDAYS VALUES WITH 50S AREAWIDE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND BRING A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
INTO ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE A
DISTINCT COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MORE LIKE A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS FALL. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES
SHOW TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE
COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
NO ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP INTO A TROF AND SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS ROUGHLY AROUND 15K. VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 061725
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR FRIDAYS VALUES WITH 50S AREAWIDE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND BRING A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
INTO ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE A
DISTINCT COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MORE LIKE A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS FALL. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES
SHOW TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE
COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
NO ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP INTO A TROF AND SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS ROUGHLY AROUND 15K. VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 061724 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE AL/GA LINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AL AND SOME OF
NORTHERN GA. MODELS SLOWLY PUSH THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AS THE DAY
GOES ON. THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST OF I-65. FURTHER WEST SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY START AROUND NOON...AND BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS
FLOW FROM THE NORTH ADVECTS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN AL. ALTHOUGH SOME MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CULLMAN COUNTY...PORTIONS OF NW
AL...AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...EXPECT A THICK ENOUGH LAYER OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP EVERYWHERE BY NOON FOR PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE WEAK LIFT NEAR THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WEST OF
I-65 AND IN LINCOLN COUNTY (TN)...THINK PREVIOUS HIGHS WERE JUST A
TAD LOW AND RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHT
DELAY IN THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...SINCE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON TOUGHER MUCH OF THE DAY...TWEAKED HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 061724 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE AL/GA LINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AL AND SOME OF
NORTHERN GA. MODELS SLOWLY PUSH THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AS THE DAY
GOES ON. THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST OF I-65. FURTHER WEST SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY START AROUND NOON...AND BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS
FLOW FROM THE NORTH ADVECTS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN AL. ALTHOUGH SOME MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CULLMAN COUNTY...PORTIONS OF NW
AL...AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...EXPECT A THICK ENOUGH LAYER OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP EVERYWHERE BY NOON FOR PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE WEAK LIFT NEAR THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WEST OF
I-65 AND IN LINCOLN COUNTY (TN)...THINK PREVIOUS HIGHS WERE JUST A
TAD LOW AND RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHT
DELAY IN THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...SINCE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON TOUGHER MUCH OF THE DAY...TWEAKED HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 061724 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE AL/GA LINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AL AND SOME OF
NORTHERN GA. MODELS SLOWLY PUSH THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AS THE DAY
GOES ON. THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST OF I-65. FURTHER WEST SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY START AROUND NOON...AND BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS
FLOW FROM THE NORTH ADVECTS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN AL. ALTHOUGH SOME MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CULLMAN COUNTY...PORTIONS OF NW
AL...AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...EXPECT A THICK ENOUGH LAYER OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP EVERYWHERE BY NOON FOR PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE WEAK LIFT NEAR THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WEST OF
I-65 AND IN LINCOLN COUNTY (TN)...THINK PREVIOUS HIGHS WERE JUST A
TAD LOW AND RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHT
DELAY IN THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...SINCE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON TOUGHER MUCH OF THE DAY...TWEAKED HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 061649 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1049 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE AL/GA LINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AL AND SOME OF
NORTHERN GA. MODELS SLOWLY PUSH THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AS THE DAY
GOES ON. THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST OF I-65. FURTHER WEST SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY START AROUND NOON...AND BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS
FLOW FROM THE NORTH ADVECTS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN AL. ALTHOUGH SOME MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CULLMAN COUNTY...PORTIONS OF NW
AL...AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...EXPECT A THICK ENOUGH LAYER OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP EVERYWHERE BY NOON FOR PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE WEAK LIFT NEAR THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WEST OF
I-65 AND IN LINCOLN COUNTY (TN)...THINK PREVIOUS HIGHS WERE JUST A
TAD LOW AND RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHT
DELAY IN THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...SINCE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON TOUGHER MUCH OF THE DAY...TWEAKED HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 510 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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