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000
FXUS64 KBMX 211552
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
952 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO REALLY BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. DEWPOINTS WERE
RUNNING A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE THAT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY AT SEEING A SHOWER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO. AFTER 11 AM CLOUDS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AFTER LUNCH.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE TO REMOVE ANY RAIN
MENTION AFTER 11 AM.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF
GROUND FOG AT MGM...TCL...AND EET POSSIBLE. ENOUGH OF A CHANCE AT
MGM TO INCLUDE TEMPO IFR THROUGH 13Z...BUT NOT AT EET OR TCL. WITH
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...THAT
SHOULD HELP PREVENT ENOUGH COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE.
MEANWHILE...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR
CATEGORY. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY THIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  36  60  47  64 /   0   0  10  50  90
ANNISTON    62  38  61  49  67 /   0   0  10  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  63  42  63  52  68 /  10   0  10  60  80
TUSCALOOSA  66  43  65  55  71 /  10  10  10  60  80
CALERA      64  42  63  52  69 /   0   0  10  60  80
AUBURN      63  40  61  51  70 /   0   0  10  70  90
MONTGOMERY  68  40  66  54  73 /   0   0  10  80  80
TROY        67  42  64  55  73 /   0   0  10  80  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 211552
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
952 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO REALLY BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. DEWPOINTS WERE
RUNNING A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE THAT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY AT SEEING A SHOWER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO. AFTER 11 AM CLOUDS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AFTER LUNCH.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE TO REMOVE ANY RAIN
MENTION AFTER 11 AM.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF
GROUND FOG AT MGM...TCL...AND EET POSSIBLE. ENOUGH OF A CHANCE AT
MGM TO INCLUDE TEMPO IFR THROUGH 13Z...BUT NOT AT EET OR TCL. WITH
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...THAT
SHOULD HELP PREVENT ENOUGH COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE.
MEANWHILE...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR
CATEGORY. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY THIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  36  60  47  64 /   0   0  10  50  90
ANNISTON    62  38  61  49  67 /   0   0  10  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  63  42  63  52  68 /  10   0  10  60  80
TUSCALOOSA  66  43  65  55  71 /  10  10  10  60  80
CALERA      64  42  63  52  69 /   0   0  10  60  80
AUBURN      63  40  61  51  70 /   0   0  10  70  90
MONTGOMERY  68  40  66  54  73 /   0   0  10  80  80
TROY        67  42  64  55  73 /   0   0  10  80  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 211145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
545 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW YESTERDAY WILL DO A 180 AND BECOME EASTERLY TODAY.
THE SWITCH IN WIND FLOW IS A RESULT OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...PRODUCING MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALABAMA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE
STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY...RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP WEST OF ALABAMA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE GULF COAST CLOSE TO THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT.
COOLER EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
AIR MASS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS THE DRY-LINE APPROACHES
EAST MISSISSIPPI LATE SUNDAY MORNING..SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROF BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM FORCING IS
NOT COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY. AS THE SURFACE BASED
INDICES BECOME NEGATIVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROF
IS PULLING OFF INTO GEORGIA. A SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUSHES INTO WEST ALABAMA BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND RAPIDLY
SPREADS EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

THE STORM PREDICTION DAY3 SLIGHT RISK LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH OUR
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE
THREAT ENDING TIME TO 3 PM AS SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD LINGER
OVER EAST ALABAMA BEYOND 12 NOON. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF EAST
ALABAMA BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BRING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE SOME MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY SMALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROF COVERS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA...
BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE TO DRY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF RAIN. EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY
TROUGH THURSDAY...NO INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR THIS TIME.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF
GROUND FOG AT MGM...TCL...AND EET POSSIBLE. ENOUGH OF A CHANCE AT
MGM TO INCLUDE TEMPO IFR THROUGH 13Z...BUT NOT AT EET OR TCL. WITH
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...THAT
SHOULD HELP PREVENT ENOUGH COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE.
MEANWHILE...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR
CATEGORY. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY THIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  36  60  47  64 /   0   0  10  50  90
ANNISTON    62  38  61  49  67 /   0   0  10  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  63  42  63  52  68 /   0   0  10  60  80
TUSCALOOSA  66  43  65  55  71 /  10  10  10  60  80
CALERA      64  42  63  52  69 /   0   0  10  60  80
AUBURN      63  40  61  51  70 /   0   0  10  70  90
MONTGOMERY  68  40  66  54  73 /   0   0  10  80  80
TROY        67  42  64  55  73 /   0   0  10  80  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 211145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
545 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW YESTERDAY WILL DO A 180 AND BECOME EASTERLY TODAY.
THE SWITCH IN WIND FLOW IS A RESULT OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...PRODUCING MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALABAMA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE
STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY...RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP WEST OF ALABAMA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE GULF COAST CLOSE TO THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT.
COOLER EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
AIR MASS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS THE DRY-LINE APPROACHES
EAST MISSISSIPPI LATE SUNDAY MORNING..SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROF BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM FORCING IS
NOT COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY. AS THE SURFACE BASED
INDICES BECOME NEGATIVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROF
IS PULLING OFF INTO GEORGIA. A SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUSHES INTO WEST ALABAMA BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND RAPIDLY
SPREADS EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

THE STORM PREDICTION DAY3 SLIGHT RISK LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH OUR
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE
THREAT ENDING TIME TO 3 PM AS SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD LINGER
OVER EAST ALABAMA BEYOND 12 NOON. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF EAST
ALABAMA BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BRING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE SOME MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY SMALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROF COVERS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA...
BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE TO DRY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF RAIN. EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY
TROUGH THURSDAY...NO INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR THIS TIME.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF
GROUND FOG AT MGM...TCL...AND EET POSSIBLE. ENOUGH OF A CHANCE AT
MGM TO INCLUDE TEMPO IFR THROUGH 13Z...BUT NOT AT EET OR TCL. WITH
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...THAT
SHOULD HELP PREVENT ENOUGH COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE.
MEANWHILE...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR
CATEGORY. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY THIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  36  60  47  64 /   0   0  10  50  90
ANNISTON    62  38  61  49  67 /   0   0  10  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  63  42  63  52  68 /   0   0  10  60  80
TUSCALOOSA  66  43  65  55  71 /  10  10  10  60  80
CALERA      64  42  63  52  69 /   0   0  10  60  80
AUBURN      63  40  61  51  70 /   0   0  10  70  90
MONTGOMERY  68  40  66  54  73 /   0   0  10  80  80
TROY        67  42  64  55  73 /   0   0  10  80  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 211141 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
541 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 207 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
AT 07Z, SHALLOW COLD AIR WAS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT HAD SLIPPED
INTO CENTRAL AL AND NRN MS. MOISTURE WAS ALREADY OVERRUNNING THIS
AIRMASS IN THE 8H-7H LAYER WITH CLOUDS EXPANDING EWD INTO MOST OF OUR
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SHIFT NWD OUT OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE A BIT FURTHER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS NW INTO THE AREA. THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE FOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH MAY SEE CLOUDS THRU THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL RESPOND TO DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH M-U50S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS (U40S PLATEAU AREAS). DEPENDING ON THE EXACT CLOUD
TRENDS TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE M30S IN OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS IF CLEARING DOES INDEED TAKE PLACE. FURTHER WEST,
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION HOLD TEMPS IN THE L40S
FOR LOWS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE IS A BIT SLOWER THIS
MODEL RUN, AND THIS MEANS A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WIND FIELDS
REMAIN QUITE STRONG, BUT NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS BEFORE. THE SFC LOW
FORECAST IS ALSO QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS INDICATED A POSSIBLE "BOMB", BUT HAVE NOW BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTHENING A BIT AND THE NAM HAS A MUCH WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC WAVE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT LIFTS NE. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING WIND AND POSSIBLY WITH QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE GIVEN
CONTINUED RIDGE AXIS INFLUENCE AND DRY AIR. CLOUDS MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY ADVECTS A GOOD
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE NWD. THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY
NIGHT APPEARS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME
STRATIFORM -RA AND DZ DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY DEFINITE POPS FOR SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAXIMA SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
NEWD THRU SRN AL AND GA TIED TO GREATER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH THE LLJ. ANOTHER MAXIMA MAY BE TO OUR NW WITH THE
UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS RATHER SLIM.

THE DRY SLOT STILL LOOKS TO PUNCH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHANCES. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE
A DRY ONE ON EARLY MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP
SKIRTING MAINLY OUR NWRN AL AND TN COUNTIES.

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MODEL BLEND WERE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST (DAYS 4-7). WARM ADVECTION DOES BRING A BAND OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU ON WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT
AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR IP, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING TO THE FORECAST
JUST YET. THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE ON FRIDAY WITH
POSSIBLE POST- FRONTAL -RA FRIDAY NIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...EVEN WITH LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...OR CIGS AOA
3-4K FT...SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE W...VFR CONDS LOOK TO
PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. SFC FLOW IS XPCTED TO
TURN MORE TOWARD THE E LESS THAN 10KT LATER THIS MORNING...AND
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 211141 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
541 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 207 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
AT 07Z, SHALLOW COLD AIR WAS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT HAD SLIPPED
INTO CENTRAL AL AND NRN MS. MOISTURE WAS ALREADY OVERRUNNING THIS
AIRMASS IN THE 8H-7H LAYER WITH CLOUDS EXPANDING EWD INTO MOST OF OUR
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SHIFT NWD OUT OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE A BIT FURTHER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS NW INTO THE AREA. THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE FOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH MAY SEE CLOUDS THRU THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL RESPOND TO DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH M-U50S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS (U40S PLATEAU AREAS). DEPENDING ON THE EXACT CLOUD
TRENDS TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE M30S IN OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS IF CLEARING DOES INDEED TAKE PLACE. FURTHER WEST,
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION HOLD TEMPS IN THE L40S
FOR LOWS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE IS A BIT SLOWER THIS
MODEL RUN, AND THIS MEANS A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WIND FIELDS
REMAIN QUITE STRONG, BUT NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS BEFORE. THE SFC LOW
FORECAST IS ALSO QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS INDICATED A POSSIBLE "BOMB", BUT HAVE NOW BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTHENING A BIT AND THE NAM HAS A MUCH WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC WAVE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT LIFTS NE. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING WIND AND POSSIBLY WITH QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE GIVEN
CONTINUED RIDGE AXIS INFLUENCE AND DRY AIR. CLOUDS MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY ADVECTS A GOOD
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE NWD. THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY
NIGHT APPEARS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME
STRATIFORM -RA AND DZ DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY DEFINITE POPS FOR SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAXIMA SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
NEWD THRU SRN AL AND GA TIED TO GREATER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH THE LLJ. ANOTHER MAXIMA MAY BE TO OUR NW WITH THE
UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS RATHER SLIM.

THE DRY SLOT STILL LOOKS TO PUNCH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHANCES. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE
A DRY ONE ON EARLY MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP
SKIRTING MAINLY OUR NWRN AL AND TN COUNTIES.

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MODEL BLEND WERE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST (DAYS 4-7). WARM ADVECTION DOES BRING A BAND OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU ON WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT
AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR IP, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING TO THE FORECAST
JUST YET. THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE ON FRIDAY WITH
POSSIBLE POST- FRONTAL -RA FRIDAY NIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...EVEN WITH LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...OR CIGS AOA
3-4K FT...SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE W...VFR CONDS LOOK TO
PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. SFC FLOW IS XPCTED TO
TURN MORE TOWARD THE E LESS THAN 10KT LATER THIS MORNING...AND
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 211046
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
446 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING SHOW A
TROF AXIS IN THE HIGH LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SWINGING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN PROVINCES TO OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS MORE FLATTENED AND
NEARLY ZONAL (WEST TO EAST). AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE NORTHERN GULF...WHILE A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...DRAPED FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA...BISECTED THE HIGH. THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH LOOKS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. RAINFREE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL (UPPER 60S) UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR...TO LOWER 50S
BEACHES. /10

[WEEKEND]...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL PROCEED A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW ON SATURDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OVER OKLAHOMA LIFTS NORTHEAST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. 850 MB DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM
10C TO 12C AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM 63F TO 68F ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...AND SPREADS THE RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL
AL/NW FL. DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING AS MANY RIVER STREAM FLOWS ARE AT
OR BELOW NORMAL. THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN
URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS STILL FAIRLY POTENT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL HAVE A 100 KNOT JET
STREAK AT 300 MB. MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WITH
AN 850 MB JET INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE LOW WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND SHEAR WILL
BE VERY HIGH. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES TO REACH NEAR 500 M2/S2...WHILE THE NAM12 COMES IN
WITH A STAGGERING 850 M2/S2 BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINED WINDS. IF ANY TORNADOES DO FORM WE WOULD EXPECT FAST
MOVING EF-0 AND EF-1 TORNADOES. STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT
IN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 45 MPH...AND ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN VERY QUICKLY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS AND INFORMATION AS
THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 57 AND 63 DEGREES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 72 TO 77 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
21.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM 10
TO 15 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON
CU TO DEVELOP AND HAVE BASES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT. /10

&&

.MARINE...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
POSITIONED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
EAST AND THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE WEST CAUSES AN INCREASE IN
EASTERLY FLOW. LATEST GRIDDED WIND FIELDS ALONG WITH THE
CONSIDERATION OF FREQUENT GUSTS NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES AND
SATURDAY MORNING FOR BAYS AND SOUNDS. LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
MOVES INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...CAUSING STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE. SEAS TRENDING MUCH HIGHER...BUILDING TO A
RANGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET THE FARTHER OFFSHORE. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL
DEVELOP CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
SOME OF THE MARINE STORMS THIS WEEKEND COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  49  67  62  77 /  00  05  30  90  90
PENSACOLA   69  51  65  62  74 /  00  05  30  90  90
DESTIN      66  52  64  63  75 /  00  05  30  90  90
EVERGREEN   68  41  65  58  75 /  00  05  20  90  90
WAYNESBORO  68  44  67  58  76 /  05  05  20  90  90
CAMDEN      68  40  66  57  74 /  05  05  10  90  90
CRESTVIEW   69  42  65  59  74 /  00  05  30  90  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...
     NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...
     SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 211046
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
446 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING SHOW A
TROF AXIS IN THE HIGH LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SWINGING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN PROVINCES TO OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS MORE FLATTENED AND
NEARLY ZONAL (WEST TO EAST). AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE NORTHERN GULF...WHILE A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...DRAPED FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA...BISECTED THE HIGH. THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH LOOKS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. RAINFREE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL (UPPER 60S) UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR...TO LOWER 50S
BEACHES. /10

[WEEKEND]...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL PROCEED A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW ON SATURDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OVER OKLAHOMA LIFTS NORTHEAST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. 850 MB DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM
10C TO 12C AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM 63F TO 68F ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...AND SPREADS THE RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL
AL/NW FL. DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING AS MANY RIVER STREAM FLOWS ARE AT
OR BELOW NORMAL. THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN
URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS STILL FAIRLY POTENT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL HAVE A 100 KNOT JET
STREAK AT 300 MB. MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WITH
AN 850 MB JET INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE LOW WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND SHEAR WILL
BE VERY HIGH. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES TO REACH NEAR 500 M2/S2...WHILE THE NAM12 COMES IN
WITH A STAGGERING 850 M2/S2 BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINED WINDS. IF ANY TORNADOES DO FORM WE WOULD EXPECT FAST
MOVING EF-0 AND EF-1 TORNADOES. STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT
IN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 45 MPH...AND ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN VERY QUICKLY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS AND INFORMATION AS
THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 57 AND 63 DEGREES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 72 TO 77 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
21.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM 10
TO 15 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON
CU TO DEVELOP AND HAVE BASES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT. /10

&&

.MARINE...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
POSITIONED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
EAST AND THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE WEST CAUSES AN INCREASE IN
EASTERLY FLOW. LATEST GRIDDED WIND FIELDS ALONG WITH THE
CONSIDERATION OF FREQUENT GUSTS NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES AND
SATURDAY MORNING FOR BAYS AND SOUNDS. LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
MOVES INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...CAUSING STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE. SEAS TRENDING MUCH HIGHER...BUILDING TO A
RANGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET THE FARTHER OFFSHORE. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL
DEVELOP CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
SOME OF THE MARINE STORMS THIS WEEKEND COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  49  67  62  77 /  00  05  30  90  90
PENSACOLA   69  51  65  62  74 /  00  05  30  90  90
DESTIN      66  52  64  63  75 /  00  05  30  90  90
EVERGREEN   68  41  65  58  75 /  00  05  20  90  90
WAYNESBORO  68  44  67  58  76 /  05  05  20  90  90
CAMDEN      68  40  66  57  74 /  05  05  10  90  90
CRESTVIEW   69  42  65  59  74 /  00  05  30  90  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...
     NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...
     SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210953
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW YESTERDAY WILL DO A 180 AND BECOME EASTERLY TODAY.
THE SWITCH IN WIND FLOW IS A RESULT OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...PRODUCING MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALABAMA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE
STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY...RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP WEST OF ALABAMA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE GULF COAST CLOSE TO THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT.
COOLER EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
AIR MASS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS THE DRY-LINE APPROACHES
EAST MISSISSIPPI LATE SUNDAY MORNING..SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROF BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM FORCING IS
NOT COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY. AS THE SURFACE BASED
INDICES BECOME NEGATIVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROF
IS PULLING OFF INTO GEORGIA. A SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUSHES INTO WEST ALABAMA BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND RAPIDLY
SPREADS EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

THE STORM PREDICTION DAY3 SLIGHT RISK LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH OUR
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE
THREAT ENDING TIME TO 3 PM AS SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD LINGER
OVER EAST ALABAMA BEYOND 12 NOON. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF EAST
ALABAMA BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BRING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE SOME MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY SMALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROF COVERS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA...
BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE TO DRY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF RAIN. EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY
TROUGH THURSDAY...NO INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR THIS TIME.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN TERMS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...THAT
SHOULD HELP PREVENT ENOUGH COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THEREFORE...HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MVFR VIS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT FOR ANY POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS.
MEANWHILE...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR
CATEGORY. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY THIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  36  60  47  64 /   0   0  10  50  90
ANNISTON    62  38  61  49  67 /   0   0  10  50  90
BIRMINGHAM  63  42  63  52  68 /   0   0  10  60  80
TUSCALOOSA  66  43  65  55  71 /  10  10  10  60  80
CALERA      64  42  63  52  69 /   0   0  10  60  80
AUBURN      63  40  61  51  70 /   0   0  10  70  90
MONTGOMERY  68  40  66  54  73 /   0   0  10  80  80
TROY        67  42  64  55  73 /   0   0  10  80  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 210807
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
207 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z, SHALLOW COLD AIR WAS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT HAD SLIPPED
INTO CENTRAL AL AND NRN MS. MOISTURE WAS ALREADY OVERRUNNING THIS
AIRMASS IN THE 8H-7H LAYER WITH CLOUDS EXPANDING EWD INTO MOST OF OUR
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SHIFT NWD OUT OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE A BIT FURTHER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS NW INTO THE AREA. THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE FOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH MAY SEE CLOUDS THRU THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL RESPOND TO DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH M-U50S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS (U40S PLATEAU AREAS). DEPENDING ON THE EXACT CLOUD
TRENDS TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE M30S IN OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS IF CLEARING DOES INDEED TAKE PLACE. FURTHER WEST,
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION HOLD TEMPS IN THE L40S
FOR LOWS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE IS A BIT SLOWER THIS
MODEL RUN, AND THIS MEANS A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WIND FIELDS
REMAIN QUITE STRONG, BUT NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS BEFORE. THE SFC LOW
FORECAST IS ALSO QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS INDICATED A POSSIBLE "BOMB", BUT HAVE NOW BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTHENING A BIT AND THE NAM HAS A MUCH WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC WAVE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT LIFTS NE. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING WIND AND POSSIBLY WITH QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE GIVEN
CONTINUED RIDGE AXIS INFLUENCE AND DRY AIR. CLOUDS MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY ADVECTS A GOOD
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE NWD. THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY
NIGHT APPEARS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME
STRATIFORM -RA AND DZ DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY DEFINITE POPS FOR SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAXIMA SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
NEWD THRU SRN AL AND GA TIED TO GREATER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH THE LLJ. ANOTHER MAXIMA MAY BE TO OUR NW WITH THE
UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS RATHER SLIM.

THE DRY SLOT STILL LOOKS TO PUNCH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHANCES. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE
A DRY ONE ON EARLY MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP
SKIRTING MAINLY OUR NWRN AL AND TN COUNTIES.

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MODEL BLEND WERE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST (DAYS 4-7). WARM ADVECTION DOES BRING A BAND OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU ON WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT
AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR IP, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING TO THE FORECAST
JUST YET. THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE ON FRIDAY WITH
POSSIBLE POST- FRONTAL -RA FRIDAY NIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6 TO 7 KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BUT REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    58  39  63  50 /   0   0  10  40
SHOALS        57  42  64  51 /  10  10  10  50
VINEMONT      58  41  62  50 /   0   0  10  50
FAYETTEVILLE  53  38  60  49 /   0   0  10  40
ALBERTVILLE   58  35  60  48 /   0   0  10  40
FORT PAYNE    57  36  59  46 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 210807
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
207 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z, SHALLOW COLD AIR WAS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT HAD SLIPPED
INTO CENTRAL AL AND NRN MS. MOISTURE WAS ALREADY OVERRUNNING THIS
AIRMASS IN THE 8H-7H LAYER WITH CLOUDS EXPANDING EWD INTO MOST OF OUR
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SHIFT NWD OUT OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE A BIT FURTHER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS NW INTO THE AREA. THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE FOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH MAY SEE CLOUDS THRU THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL RESPOND TO DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH M-U50S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS (U40S PLATEAU AREAS). DEPENDING ON THE EXACT CLOUD
TRENDS TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE M30S IN OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS IF CLEARING DOES INDEED TAKE PLACE. FURTHER WEST,
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION HOLD TEMPS IN THE L40S
FOR LOWS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE IS A BIT SLOWER THIS
MODEL RUN, AND THIS MEANS A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WIND FIELDS
REMAIN QUITE STRONG, BUT NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS BEFORE. THE SFC LOW
FORECAST IS ALSO QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS INDICATED A POSSIBLE "BOMB", BUT HAVE NOW BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTHENING A BIT AND THE NAM HAS A MUCH WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC WAVE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT LIFTS NE. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING WIND AND POSSIBLY WITH QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE GIVEN
CONTINUED RIDGE AXIS INFLUENCE AND DRY AIR. CLOUDS MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY ADVECTS A GOOD
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE NWD. THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY
NIGHT APPEARS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME
STRATIFORM -RA AND DZ DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY DEFINITE POPS FOR SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAXIMA SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
NEWD THRU SRN AL AND GA TIED TO GREATER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH THE LLJ. ANOTHER MAXIMA MAY BE TO OUR NW WITH THE
UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS RATHER SLIM.

THE DRY SLOT STILL LOOKS TO PUNCH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHANCES. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE
A DRY ONE ON EARLY MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP
SKIRTING MAINLY OUR NWRN AL AND TN COUNTIES.

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MODEL BLEND WERE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST (DAYS 4-7). WARM ADVECTION DOES BRING A BAND OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU ON WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT
AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR IP, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING TO THE FORECAST
JUST YET. THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE ON FRIDAY WITH
POSSIBLE POST- FRONTAL -RA FRIDAY NIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6 TO 7 KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BUT REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    58  39  63  50 /   0   0  10  40
SHOALS        57  42  64  51 /  10  10  10  50
VINEMONT      58  41  62  50 /   0   0  10  50
FAYETTEVILLE  53  38  60  49 /   0   0  10  40
ALBERTVILLE   58  35  60  48 /   0   0  10  40
FORT PAYNE    57  36  59  46 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 210807
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
207 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z, SHALLOW COLD AIR WAS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT HAD SLIPPED
INTO CENTRAL AL AND NRN MS. MOISTURE WAS ALREADY OVERRUNNING THIS
AIRMASS IN THE 8H-7H LAYER WITH CLOUDS EXPANDING EWD INTO MOST OF OUR
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SHIFT NWD OUT OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE A BIT FURTHER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS NW INTO THE AREA. THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE FOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH MAY SEE CLOUDS THRU THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL RESPOND TO DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH M-U50S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS (U40S PLATEAU AREAS). DEPENDING ON THE EXACT CLOUD
TRENDS TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE M30S IN OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS IF CLEARING DOES INDEED TAKE PLACE. FURTHER WEST,
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION HOLD TEMPS IN THE L40S
FOR LOWS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE IS A BIT SLOWER THIS
MODEL RUN, AND THIS MEANS A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WIND FIELDS
REMAIN QUITE STRONG, BUT NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS BEFORE. THE SFC LOW
FORECAST IS ALSO QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS INDICATED A POSSIBLE "BOMB", BUT HAVE NOW BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTHENING A BIT AND THE NAM HAS A MUCH WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC WAVE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT LIFTS NE. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING WIND AND POSSIBLY WITH QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE GIVEN
CONTINUED RIDGE AXIS INFLUENCE AND DRY AIR. CLOUDS MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY ADVECTS A GOOD
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE NWD. THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY
NIGHT APPEARS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME
STRATIFORM -RA AND DZ DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY DEFINITE POPS FOR SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAXIMA SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
NEWD THRU SRN AL AND GA TIED TO GREATER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH THE LLJ. ANOTHER MAXIMA MAY BE TO OUR NW WITH THE
UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS RATHER SLIM.

THE DRY SLOT STILL LOOKS TO PUNCH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHANCES. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE
A DRY ONE ON EARLY MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP
SKIRTING MAINLY OUR NWRN AL AND TN COUNTIES.

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MODEL BLEND WERE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST (DAYS 4-7). WARM ADVECTION DOES BRING A BAND OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU ON WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT
AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR IP, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING TO THE FORECAST
JUST YET. THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE ON FRIDAY WITH
POSSIBLE POST- FRONTAL -RA FRIDAY NIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6 TO 7 KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BUT REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    58  39  63  50 /   0   0  10  40
SHOALS        57  42  64  51 /  10  10  10  50
VINEMONT      58  41  62  50 /   0   0  10  50
FAYETTEVILLE  53  38  60  49 /   0   0  10  40
ALBERTVILLE   58  35  60  48 /   0   0  10  40
FORT PAYNE    57  36  59  46 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 210807
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
207 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z, SHALLOW COLD AIR WAS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT HAD SLIPPED
INTO CENTRAL AL AND NRN MS. MOISTURE WAS ALREADY OVERRUNNING THIS
AIRMASS IN THE 8H-7H LAYER WITH CLOUDS EXPANDING EWD INTO MOST OF OUR
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SHIFT NWD OUT OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE A BIT FURTHER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS NW INTO THE AREA. THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE FOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH MAY SEE CLOUDS THRU THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL RESPOND TO DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH M-U50S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS (U40S PLATEAU AREAS). DEPENDING ON THE EXACT CLOUD
TRENDS TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE M30S IN OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS IF CLEARING DOES INDEED TAKE PLACE. FURTHER WEST,
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION HOLD TEMPS IN THE L40S
FOR LOWS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE IS A BIT SLOWER THIS
MODEL RUN, AND THIS MEANS A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WIND FIELDS
REMAIN QUITE STRONG, BUT NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS BEFORE. THE SFC LOW
FORECAST IS ALSO QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS INDICATED A POSSIBLE "BOMB", BUT HAVE NOW BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTHENING A BIT AND THE NAM HAS A MUCH WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC WAVE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT LIFTS NE. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING WIND AND POSSIBLY WITH QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE GIVEN
CONTINUED RIDGE AXIS INFLUENCE AND DRY AIR. CLOUDS MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY ADVECTS A GOOD
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE NWD. THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY
NIGHT APPEARS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME
STRATIFORM -RA AND DZ DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY DEFINITE POPS FOR SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAXIMA SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
NEWD THRU SRN AL AND GA TIED TO GREATER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH THE LLJ. ANOTHER MAXIMA MAY BE TO OUR NW WITH THE
UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS RATHER SLIM.

THE DRY SLOT STILL LOOKS TO PUNCH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHANCES. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE
A DRY ONE ON EARLY MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP
SKIRTING MAINLY OUR NWRN AL AND TN COUNTIES.

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MODEL BLEND WERE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST (DAYS 4-7). WARM ADVECTION DOES BRING A BAND OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU ON WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT
AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR IP, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING TO THE FORECAST
JUST YET. THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE ON FRIDAY WITH
POSSIBLE POST- FRONTAL -RA FRIDAY NIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6 TO 7 KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BUT REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    58  39  63  50 /   0   0  10  40
SHOALS        57  42  64  51 /  10  10  10  50
VINEMONT      58  41  62  50 /   0   0  10  50
FAYETTEVILLE  53  38  60  49 /   0   0  10  40
ALBERTVILLE   58  35  60  48 /   0   0  10  40
FORT PAYNE    57  36  59  46 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 210556
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS NORTH BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER ON FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THIS FEATURE WAS ALLOWING MOISTURE INCREASES AND SOME
LIFT...PRODUCING CLOUDS IN THE 4-8K FT RANGE. ADDITIONALLY...SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WERE OVERHEAD. THE LOWEST CLOUDS WERE MORE NUMEROUS WEST
AND NORTH LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
A FEW SPOTS NEAR FREEZING. A FEW OF THE HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THINK THIS
WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE AND DID NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TRENDS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN TERMS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...THAT
SHOULD HELP PREVENT ENOUGH COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THEREFORE...HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MVFR VIS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT FOR ANY POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS.
MEANWHILE...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR
CATEGORY. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY THIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  57  37  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
ANNISTON    35  59  38  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
BIRMINGHAM  38  60  42  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
TUSCALOOSA  40  64  44  64  56 /  10  10  10  10 100
CALERA      39  62  41  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
AUBURN      40  62  42  61  52 /   0   0   0  10  90
MONTGOMERY  37  66  41  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  90
TROY        36  64  42  65  57 /   0   0   0  10  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 210556
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS NORTH BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER ON FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THIS FEATURE WAS ALLOWING MOISTURE INCREASES AND SOME
LIFT...PRODUCING CLOUDS IN THE 4-8K FT RANGE. ADDITIONALLY...SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WERE OVERHEAD. THE LOWEST CLOUDS WERE MORE NUMEROUS WEST
AND NORTH LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
A FEW SPOTS NEAR FREEZING. A FEW OF THE HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THINK THIS
WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE AND DID NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TRENDS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN TERMS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...THAT
SHOULD HELP PREVENT ENOUGH COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THEREFORE...HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MVFR VIS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT FOR ANY POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS.
MEANWHILE...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR
CATEGORY. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY THIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  57  37  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
ANNISTON    35  59  38  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
BIRMINGHAM  38  60  42  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
TUSCALOOSA  40  64  44  64  56 /  10  10  10  10 100
CALERA      39  62  41  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
AUBURN      40  62  42  61  52 /   0   0   0  10  90
MONTGOMERY  37  66  41  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  90
TROY        36  64  42  65  57 /   0   0   0  10  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 210556
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS NORTH BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER ON FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THIS FEATURE WAS ALLOWING MOISTURE INCREASES AND SOME
LIFT...PRODUCING CLOUDS IN THE 4-8K FT RANGE. ADDITIONALLY...SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WERE OVERHEAD. THE LOWEST CLOUDS WERE MORE NUMEROUS WEST
AND NORTH LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
A FEW SPOTS NEAR FREEZING. A FEW OF THE HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THINK THIS
WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE AND DID NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TRENDS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN TERMS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...THAT
SHOULD HELP PREVENT ENOUGH COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THEREFORE...HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MVFR VIS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT FOR ANY POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS.
MEANWHILE...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR
CATEGORY. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY THIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  57  37  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
ANNISTON    35  59  38  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
BIRMINGHAM  38  60  42  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
TUSCALOOSA  40  64  44  64  56 /  10  10  10  10 100
CALERA      39  62  41  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
AUBURN      40  62  42  61  52 /   0   0   0  10  90
MONTGOMERY  37  66  41  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  90
TROY        36  64  42  65  57 /   0   0   0  10  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 210556
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS NORTH BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER ON FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THIS FEATURE WAS ALLOWING MOISTURE INCREASES AND SOME
LIFT...PRODUCING CLOUDS IN THE 4-8K FT RANGE. ADDITIONALLY...SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WERE OVERHEAD. THE LOWEST CLOUDS WERE MORE NUMEROUS WEST
AND NORTH LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
A FEW SPOTS NEAR FREEZING. A FEW OF THE HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THINK THIS
WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE AND DID NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TRENDS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN TERMS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...THAT
SHOULD HELP PREVENT ENOUGH COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THEREFORE...HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MVFR VIS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT FOR ANY POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS.
MEANWHILE...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR
CATEGORY. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY THIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  57  37  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
ANNISTON    35  59  38  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
BIRMINGHAM  38  60  42  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
TUSCALOOSA  40  64  44  64  56 /  10  10  10  10 100
CALERA      39  62  41  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
AUBURN      40  62  42  61  52 /   0   0   0  10  90
MONTGOMERY  37  66  41  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  90
TROY        36  64  42  65  57 /   0   0   0  10  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 210546
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1146 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 931 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
WE ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS EVENING.
ONE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND ONE JUST SOUTH ALONG THE
GULF COAST. WEAK CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS AND ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
BAND OF INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO FORM. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
THIS EVENING WERE NUDGED UP A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6 TO 7 KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BUT REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 210512 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&


.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE FA...AM EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN FLOW OFF THE GULF THROUGH THE LATTER 6 HRS OF THE
FORECAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THERE-AFTER.

/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 210512 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&


.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE FA...AM EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN FLOW OFF THE GULF THROUGH THE LATTER 6 HRS OF THE
FORECAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THERE-AFTER.

/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 210403
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS NORTH BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER ON FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THIS FEATURE WAS ALLOWING MOISTURE INCREASES AND SOME
LIFT...PRODUCING CLOUDS IN THE 4-8K FT RANGE. ADDITIONALLY...SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WERE OVERHEAD. THE LOWEST CLOUDS WERE MORE NUMEROUS WEST
AND NORTH LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
A FEW SPOTS NEAR FREEZING. A FEW OF THE HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THINK THIS
WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE AND DID NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TRENDS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MANY OF THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST MVFR
VIS IS POSSIBLE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

56/GDG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS THE STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BRING AMPLE RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL IDEA OF RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE STILL SOME
IMPORTANT DETAILS THAT WE REALLY NEED TO START HASHING OUT. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO OUR WEST...IS ONE
THAT USUALLY CAUSES A RED FLAG TO GO UP TO AT LEAST INVESTIGATE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE. AND WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STILL LOW...IT IS SOMETHING THAT I STILL
THINK REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM (LARGELY EAST TO SOUTHEAST)...AND HOW THAT
WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET THE BEST MOISTURE (HIGHER DEWPOINTS) INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A BIG WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD WONT HELP MATTERS
IN THAT REGARD EITHER. BUT RIGHT BEFORE THE INITIAL DRY LINE MOVES
THROUGH (AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH)...THERE
IS A SHORT TIME WHEN WINDS COME MORE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
WILL THAT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO GET HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS? TOO HARD TO TELL
RIGHT NOW...BUT I WOULD SAY THE CHANCE IS NON-ZERO.

THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM LENDS SOME SUPPORT TO THIS IDEA.
ITS SLOWED DOWN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A TIME GAP BETWEEN
THE INITIAL SURGE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
CONVECTIVE WEATHER ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...IF THE TIMING ON THE NAM
SLOWS DOWN MUCH MORE...WE COULD BE GETTING INTO A PEAK HEATING
SCENARIO AS THE DRY LINE (OR WHATEVER) MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. I GUESS THIS IS ALL JUST A LONG WINDED WAY OF
SAYING THAT...WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH WOULD BE MINIMAL
(OR NON- EXISTENT)...THERE IS AT LEAST ONE (PLAUSIBLE) SCENARIO
THAT EQUALLY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE STORMS (INCLUDING A TORNADO
THREAT) COULD BECOME A POSSIBILITY.

A RETURN TO COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO RUSH IN BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE HERE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS HOLDING ON TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL EASTERN STATES TROUGH.
MY GUT SAYS THAT THE MODELS TYPICALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT TOO QUICKLY
BEHIND SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS...BUT ALSO TEND TO HOLD ONTO SMALL
POPS TOO LONG AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  57  37  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
ANNISTON    35  59  38  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
BIRMINGHAM  38  60  42  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
TUSCALOOSA  40  64  44  64  56 /  10  10  10  10 100
CALERA      39  62  41  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
AUBURN      40  62  42  61  52 /   0   0   0  10  90
MONTGOMERY  37  66  41  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  90
TROY        36  64  42  65  57 /   0   0   0  10  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 210403
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS NORTH BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER ON FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THIS FEATURE WAS ALLOWING MOISTURE INCREASES AND SOME
LIFT...PRODUCING CLOUDS IN THE 4-8K FT RANGE. ADDITIONALLY...SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WERE OVERHEAD. THE LOWEST CLOUDS WERE MORE NUMEROUS WEST
AND NORTH LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
A FEW SPOTS NEAR FREEZING. A FEW OF THE HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THINK THIS
WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE AND DID NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TRENDS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MANY OF THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST MVFR
VIS IS POSSIBLE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

56/GDG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS THE STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BRING AMPLE RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL IDEA OF RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE STILL SOME
IMPORTANT DETAILS THAT WE REALLY NEED TO START HASHING OUT. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO OUR WEST...IS ONE
THAT USUALLY CAUSES A RED FLAG TO GO UP TO AT LEAST INVESTIGATE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE. AND WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STILL LOW...IT IS SOMETHING THAT I STILL
THINK REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM (LARGELY EAST TO SOUTHEAST)...AND HOW THAT
WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET THE BEST MOISTURE (HIGHER DEWPOINTS) INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A BIG WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD WONT HELP MATTERS
IN THAT REGARD EITHER. BUT RIGHT BEFORE THE INITIAL DRY LINE MOVES
THROUGH (AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH)...THERE
IS A SHORT TIME WHEN WINDS COME MORE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
WILL THAT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO GET HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS? TOO HARD TO TELL
RIGHT NOW...BUT I WOULD SAY THE CHANCE IS NON-ZERO.

THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM LENDS SOME SUPPORT TO THIS IDEA.
ITS SLOWED DOWN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A TIME GAP BETWEEN
THE INITIAL SURGE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
CONVECTIVE WEATHER ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...IF THE TIMING ON THE NAM
SLOWS DOWN MUCH MORE...WE COULD BE GETTING INTO A PEAK HEATING
SCENARIO AS THE DRY LINE (OR WHATEVER) MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. I GUESS THIS IS ALL JUST A LONG WINDED WAY OF
SAYING THAT...WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH WOULD BE MINIMAL
(OR NON- EXISTENT)...THERE IS AT LEAST ONE (PLAUSIBLE) SCENARIO
THAT EQUALLY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE STORMS (INCLUDING A TORNADO
THREAT) COULD BECOME A POSSIBILITY.

A RETURN TO COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO RUSH IN BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE HERE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS HOLDING ON TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL EASTERN STATES TROUGH.
MY GUT SAYS THAT THE MODELS TYPICALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT TOO QUICKLY
BEHIND SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS...BUT ALSO TEND TO HOLD ONTO SMALL
POPS TOO LONG AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  57  37  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
ANNISTON    35  59  38  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
BIRMINGHAM  38  60  42  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
TUSCALOOSA  40  64  44  64  56 /  10  10  10  10 100
CALERA      39  62  41  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
AUBURN      40  62  42  61  52 /   0   0   0  10  90
MONTGOMERY  37  66  41  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  90
TROY        36  64  42  65  57 /   0   0   0  10  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 210347 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
945 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&


.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE FA...AM EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN FLOW OFF THE GULF THROUGH THE LATTER 6 HRS OF THE
FORECAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THERE-AFTER.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. LOW 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL AREAS WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. /13

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY)...DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS IS DUE TO A
STRONG SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA...THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME NEGATIVE TILT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMING STRONGER AND DEEPER AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A SECONDARY WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF WATERS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING AS BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPS.
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT (WELL
DEFINED IN THE SFC THETA-E)...WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SERVES TO KEEP THE BEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE...WHICH IN TURN WOULD REDUCE THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE A GREATER THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY
SERVING AS A DEFINED FOCUS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY INFLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 40-50 KT WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES.
AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT LIKELY WILL GET A STRONGER PUSH INLAND BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO MISSISSIPPI. MLCAPES OF
UP TO 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL AL/NW FL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1 KM SHEAR OF
35 KT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG LINEAR FORCING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY FORCE A SQUALL LINE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE BOTH THREATS WITH THIS SETUP WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL BEING SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE
COAST. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SEVERE CONVECTION TO AN END
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.

RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 5-6 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AL/NW FL. DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING AS MANY RIVER STREAM FLOWS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE MAIN
THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...
AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

THE OVERALL EXTENT/TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SECONDARY WARM
FRONT. THEREFORE...SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 6AM SUN AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FURTHER EAST FROM 6AM SUNDAY
THROUGH NOON.

ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT TEMPORARILY
STALLS ALONG OR NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY COOL TO
BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW COOL IT WILL BY
THANKSGIVING...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  48  68  61 /  00  00  10  40  90
PENSACOLA   42  69  50  68  63 /  00  00  10  40  90
DESTIN      46  66  51  68  64 /  00  00  10  30  90
EVERGREEN   33  67  38  67  57 /  00  00  05  20  90
WAYNESBORO  38  68  41  68  58 /  00  00  05  30  90
CAMDEN      32  66  39  66  56 /  00  00  05  20  90
CRESTVIEW   33  69  41  67  60 /  00  00  10  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 210347 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
945 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&


.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE FA...AM EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN FLOW OFF THE GULF THROUGH THE LATTER 6 HRS OF THE
FORECAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THERE-AFTER.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. LOW 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL AREAS WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. /13

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY)...DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS IS DUE TO A
STRONG SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA...THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME NEGATIVE TILT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMING STRONGER AND DEEPER AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A SECONDARY WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF WATERS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING AS BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPS.
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT (WELL
DEFINED IN THE SFC THETA-E)...WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SERVES TO KEEP THE BEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE...WHICH IN TURN WOULD REDUCE THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE A GREATER THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY
SERVING AS A DEFINED FOCUS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY INFLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 40-50 KT WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES.
AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT LIKELY WILL GET A STRONGER PUSH INLAND BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO MISSISSIPPI. MLCAPES OF
UP TO 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL AL/NW FL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1 KM SHEAR OF
35 KT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG LINEAR FORCING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY FORCE A SQUALL LINE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE BOTH THREATS WITH THIS SETUP WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL BEING SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE
COAST. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SEVERE CONVECTION TO AN END
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.

RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 5-6 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AL/NW FL. DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING AS MANY RIVER STREAM FLOWS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE MAIN
THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...
AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

THE OVERALL EXTENT/TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SECONDARY WARM
FRONT. THEREFORE...SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 6AM SUN AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FURTHER EAST FROM 6AM SUNDAY
THROUGH NOON.

ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT TEMPORARILY
STALLS ALONG OR NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY COOL TO
BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW COOL IT WILL BY
THANKSGIVING...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  48  68  61 /  00  00  10  40  90
PENSACOLA   42  69  50  68  63 /  00  00  10  40  90
DESTIN      46  66  51  68  64 /  00  00  10  30  90
EVERGREEN   33  67  38  67  57 /  00  00  05  20  90
WAYNESBORO  38  68  41  68  58 /  00  00  05  30  90
CAMDEN      32  66  39  66  56 /  00  00  05  20  90
CRESTVIEW   33  69  41  67  60 /  00  00  10  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 210347 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
945 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&


.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE FA...AM EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN FLOW OFF THE GULF THROUGH THE LATTER 6 HRS OF THE
FORECAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THERE-AFTER.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. LOW 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL AREAS WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. /13

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY)...DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS IS DUE TO A
STRONG SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA...THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME NEGATIVE TILT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMING STRONGER AND DEEPER AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A SECONDARY WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF WATERS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING AS BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPS.
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT (WELL
DEFINED IN THE SFC THETA-E)...WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SERVES TO KEEP THE BEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE...WHICH IN TURN WOULD REDUCE THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE A GREATER THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY
SERVING AS A DEFINED FOCUS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY INFLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 40-50 KT WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES.
AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT LIKELY WILL GET A STRONGER PUSH INLAND BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO MISSISSIPPI. MLCAPES OF
UP TO 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL AL/NW FL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1 KM SHEAR OF
35 KT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG LINEAR FORCING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY FORCE A SQUALL LINE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE BOTH THREATS WITH THIS SETUP WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL BEING SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE
COAST. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SEVERE CONVECTION TO AN END
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.

RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 5-6 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AL/NW FL. DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING AS MANY RIVER STREAM FLOWS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE MAIN
THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...
AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

THE OVERALL EXTENT/TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SECONDARY WARM
FRONT. THEREFORE...SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 6AM SUN AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FURTHER EAST FROM 6AM SUNDAY
THROUGH NOON.

ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT TEMPORARILY
STALLS ALONG OR NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY COOL TO
BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW COOL IT WILL BY
THANKSGIVING...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  48  68  61 /  00  00  10  40  90
PENSACOLA   42  69  50  68  63 /  00  00  10  40  90
DESTIN      46  66  51  68  64 /  00  00  10  30  90
EVERGREEN   33  67  38  67  57 /  00  00  05  20  90
WAYNESBORO  38  68  41  68  58 /  00  00  05  30  90
CAMDEN      32  66  39  66  56 /  00  00  05  20  90
CRESTVIEW   33  69  41  67  60 /  00  00  10  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 210331
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
931 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS EVENING.
ONE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND ONE JUST SOUTH ALONG THE
GULF COAST. WEAK CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS AND ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
BAND OF INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO FORM. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
THIS EVENING WERE NUDGED UP A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 542 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
LATEST IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A DECK OF SCT TO BKN
CLOUDS BETWEEN 5 AND 7KFT LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MS THIS
EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10KTS. A
ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STUMPF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT. AS THE HIGH
ROTATES TO THE EAST...A PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IF LESS CLOUD
COVER MATERIALIZES...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN. CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...IT MAY KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA WITH LESS CLOUDS. AS THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES
EAST...CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW AND HIGH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL VALUES WILL FINALLY BE REACHED.

THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN EASTERN TEXAS AND DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM THAT ARE WORTH NOTING.

DYNAMICS ARE STRONG WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS BETWEEN 6-18Z LEADING TO VERY HIGH SHEAR VALUES. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR IS 60-70KTS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT. EVEN ABOVE
THE LLJ...WINDS WILL BE 70-80KT THROUGH THE PROFILE. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HELICITY VALUES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 400-500
RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER AT TIMES.

IN TERMS OF MOISTURE...PLENTY OF IT WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS SYSTEM
WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

THE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH THIS EVENT...EVEN WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. BUT BECAUSE
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE 18Z...THESE WARMER
TEMPS WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A
STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND STRONG INVERSION AT THE LOW LEVELS.
SURFACE BASED AND MUCAPE IS ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG BRIEFLY
BETWEEN 12-18Z. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY LOW LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT THE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.

THE TIMING OF ALL OF THE FEATURES IS WHAT WILL DETERMINE THE
ULTIMATE OUTCOME. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH TIMING IS THAT THE PRECIP AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET COME BEFORE 18Z WHEN INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
THEN...MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY ROTATES IN BEHIND THE DEEPENING
LOW. THIS WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...IF THE TIMING CAN HOLD OFF A FEW HOURS
TO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE ALONG WITH
GETTING ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO COINCIDE WITH
PRECIP...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY.

AS FOR THE MAIN THREATS...A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 6-18Z SUNDAY. AS WELL...WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT THESE WINDS BEING DRAGGED DOWN IN ANY
CONVECTION...EVEN LOP TOPPED...CREATING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
THEN...IF PRECIP DOES HOLD ON WHEN THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES
IN...WE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND.
WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO REALIZE THE SHEAR AND HELCITY. EVEN SO...THE CHANCE OF ROTATION
WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BUT IF THE TIMING COMES TOGETHER IN A MORE
FAVORABLE MANNER THE CHANCE MAY INCREASE. IN TERMS OF WIND...WITH
THE DEEP INVERSION...THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY MIX DOWN IN
CONVECTION SO DO NOT EXPECT SYNOPTIC SCALE STRONG WINDS.

BEHIND THIS DEEP UPPER LOW...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH WITH COOLER AIR AND A NW WIND FILTERING IN. TEMPS TUE-
THUS WILL BE BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 210331
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
931 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS EVENING.
ONE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND ONE JUST SOUTH ALONG THE
GULF COAST. WEAK CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS AND ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
BAND OF INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO FORM. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
THIS EVENING WERE NUDGED UP A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 542 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
LATEST IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A DECK OF SCT TO BKN
CLOUDS BETWEEN 5 AND 7KFT LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MS THIS
EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10KTS. A
ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STUMPF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT. AS THE HIGH
ROTATES TO THE EAST...A PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IF LESS CLOUD
COVER MATERIALIZES...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN. CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...IT MAY KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA WITH LESS CLOUDS. AS THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES
EAST...CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW AND HIGH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL VALUES WILL FINALLY BE REACHED.

THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN EASTERN TEXAS AND DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM THAT ARE WORTH NOTING.

DYNAMICS ARE STRONG WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS BETWEEN 6-18Z LEADING TO VERY HIGH SHEAR VALUES. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR IS 60-70KTS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT. EVEN ABOVE
THE LLJ...WINDS WILL BE 70-80KT THROUGH THE PROFILE. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HELICITY VALUES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 400-500
RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER AT TIMES.

IN TERMS OF MOISTURE...PLENTY OF IT WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS SYSTEM
WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

THE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH THIS EVENT...EVEN WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. BUT BECAUSE
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE 18Z...THESE WARMER
TEMPS WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A
STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND STRONG INVERSION AT THE LOW LEVELS.
SURFACE BASED AND MUCAPE IS ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG BRIEFLY
BETWEEN 12-18Z. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY LOW LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT THE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.

THE TIMING OF ALL OF THE FEATURES IS WHAT WILL DETERMINE THE
ULTIMATE OUTCOME. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH TIMING IS THAT THE PRECIP AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET COME BEFORE 18Z WHEN INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
THEN...MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY ROTATES IN BEHIND THE DEEPENING
LOW. THIS WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...IF THE TIMING CAN HOLD OFF A FEW HOURS
TO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE ALONG WITH
GETTING ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO COINCIDE WITH
PRECIP...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY.

AS FOR THE MAIN THREATS...A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 6-18Z SUNDAY. AS WELL...WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT THESE WINDS BEING DRAGGED DOWN IN ANY
CONVECTION...EVEN LOP TOPPED...CREATING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
THEN...IF PRECIP DOES HOLD ON WHEN THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES
IN...WE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND.
WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO REALIZE THE SHEAR AND HELCITY. EVEN SO...THE CHANCE OF ROTATION
WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BUT IF THE TIMING COMES TOGETHER IN A MORE
FAVORABLE MANNER THE CHANCE MAY INCREASE. IN TERMS OF WIND...WITH
THE DEEP INVERSION...THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY MIX DOWN IN
CONVECTION SO DO NOT EXPECT SYNOPTIC SCALE STRONG WINDS.

BEHIND THIS DEEP UPPER LOW...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH WITH COOLER AIR AND A NW WIND FILTERING IN. TEMPS TUE-
THUS WILL BE BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 210021
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS THE STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BRING AMPLE RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL IDEA OF RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE STILL SOME
IMPORTANT DETAILS THAT WE REALLY NEED TO START HASHING OUT. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO OUR WEST...IS ONE
THAT USUALLY CAUSES A RED FLAG TO GO UP TO AT LEAST INVESTIGATE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE. AND WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STILL LOW...IT IS SOMETHING THAT I STILL
THINK REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM (LARGELY EAST TO SOUTHEAST)...AND HOW THAT
WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET THE BEST MOISTURE (HIGHER DEWPOINTS) INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A BIG WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD WONT HELP MATTERS
IN THAT REGARD EITHER. BUT RIGHT BEFORE THE INITIAL DRY LINE MOVES
THROUGH (AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH)...THERE
IS A SHORT TIME WHEN WINDS COME MORE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
WILL THAT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO GET HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS? TOO HARD TO TELL
RIGHT NOW...BUT I WOULD SAY THE CHANCE IS NON-ZERO.

THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM LENDS SOME SUPPORT TO THIS IDEA.
ITS SLOWED DOWN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A TIME GAP BETWEEN
THE INITIAL SURGE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
CONVECTIVE WEATHER ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...IF THE TIMING ON THE NAM
SLOWS DOWN MUCH MORE...WE COULD BE GETTING INTO A PEAK HEATING
SCENARIO AS THE DRY LINE (OR WHATEVER) MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. I GUESS THIS IS ALL JUST A LONG WINDED WAY OF
SAYING THAT...WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH WOULD BE MINIMAL
(OR NON- EXISTENT)...THERE IS AT LEAST ONE (PLAUSIBLE) SCENARIO
THAT EQUALLY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE STORMS (INCLUDING A TORNADO
THREAT) COULD BECOME A POSSIBILITY.

A RETURN TO COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO RUSH IN BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE HERE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS HOLDING ON TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL EASTERN STATES TROUGH.
MY GUT SAYS THAT THE MODELS TYPICALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT TOO QUICKLY
BEHIND SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS...BUT ALSO TEND TO HOLD ONTO SMALL
POPS TOO LONG AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MANY OF THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST MVFR
VIS IS POSSIBLE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  57  37  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
ANNISTON    35  59  38  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
BIRMINGHAM  38  60  42  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
TUSCALOOSA  40  64  44  64  56 /  10  10  10  10 100
CALERA      39  62  41  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
AUBURN      39  62  42  61  52 /   0   0   0  10  90
MONTGOMERY  37  66  41  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  90
TROY        37  64  42  65  57 /   0   0   0  10  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 202342
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
542 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT. AS THE HIGH
ROTATES TO THE EAST...A PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IF LESS CLOUD
COVER MATERIALIZES...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN. CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...IT MAY KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA WITH LESS CLOUDS. AS THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES
EAST...CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW AND HIGH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL VALUES WILL FINALLY BE REACHED.

THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN EASTERN TEXAS AND DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM THAT ARE WORTH NOTING.

DYNAMICS ARE STRONG WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS BETWEEN 6-18Z LEADING TO VERY HIGH SHEAR VALUES. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR IS 60-70KTS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT. EVEN ABOVE
THE LLJ...WINDS WILL BE 70-80KT THROUGH THE PROFILE. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HELICITY VALUES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 400-500
RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER AT TIMES.

IN TERMS OF MOISTURE...PLENTY OF IT WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS SYSTEM
WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

THE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH THIS EVENT...EVEN WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. BUT BECAUSE
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE 18Z...THESE WARMER
TEMPS WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A
STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND STRONG INVERSION AT THE LOW LEVELS.
SURFACE BASED AND MUCAPE IS ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG BRIEFLY
BETWEEN 12-18Z. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY LOW LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT THE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.

THE TIMING OF ALL OF THE FEATURES IS WHAT WILL DETERMINE THE
ULTIMATE OUTCOME. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH TIMING IS THAT THE PRECIP AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET COME BEFORE 18Z WHEN INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
THEN...MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY ROTATES IN BEHIND THE DEEPENING
LOW. THIS WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...IF THE TIMING CAN HOLD OFF A FEW HOURS
TO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE ALONG WITH
GETTING ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO COINCIDE WITH
PRECIP...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY.

AS FOR THE MAIN THREATS...A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 6-18Z SUNDAY. AS WELL...WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT THESE WINDS BEING DRAGGED DOWN IN ANY
CONVECTION...EVEN LOP TOPPED...CREATING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
THEN...IF PRECIP DOES HOLD ON WHEN THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES
IN...WE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND.
WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO REALIZE THE SHEAR AND HELCITY. EVEN SO...THE CHANCE OF ROTATION
WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BUT IF THE TIMING COMES TOGETHER IN A MORE
FAVORABLE MANNER THE CHANCE MAY INCREASE. IN TERMS OF WIND...WITH
THE DEEP INVERSION...THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY MIX DOWN IN
CONVECTION SO DO NOT EXPECT SYNOPTIC SCALE STRONG WINDS.

BEHIND THIS DEEP UPPER LOW...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH WITH COOLER AIR AND A NW WIND FILTERING IN. TEMPS TUE-
THUS WILL BE BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
LATEST IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A DECK OF SCT TO BKN
CLOUDS BETWEEN 5 AND 7KFT LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MS THIS
EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10KTS. A
ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 202342
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
542 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT. AS THE HIGH
ROTATES TO THE EAST...A PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IF LESS CLOUD
COVER MATERIALIZES...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN. CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...IT MAY KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA WITH LESS CLOUDS. AS THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES
EAST...CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW AND HIGH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL VALUES WILL FINALLY BE REACHED.

THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN EASTERN TEXAS AND DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM THAT ARE WORTH NOTING.

DYNAMICS ARE STRONG WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS BETWEEN 6-18Z LEADING TO VERY HIGH SHEAR VALUES. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR IS 60-70KTS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT. EVEN ABOVE
THE LLJ...WINDS WILL BE 70-80KT THROUGH THE PROFILE. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HELICITY VALUES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 400-500
RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER AT TIMES.

IN TERMS OF MOISTURE...PLENTY OF IT WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS SYSTEM
WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

THE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH THIS EVENT...EVEN WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. BUT BECAUSE
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE 18Z...THESE WARMER
TEMPS WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A
STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND STRONG INVERSION AT THE LOW LEVELS.
SURFACE BASED AND MUCAPE IS ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG BRIEFLY
BETWEEN 12-18Z. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY LOW LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT THE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.

THE TIMING OF ALL OF THE FEATURES IS WHAT WILL DETERMINE THE
ULTIMATE OUTCOME. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH TIMING IS THAT THE PRECIP AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET COME BEFORE 18Z WHEN INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
THEN...MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY ROTATES IN BEHIND THE DEEPENING
LOW. THIS WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...IF THE TIMING CAN HOLD OFF A FEW HOURS
TO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE ALONG WITH
GETTING ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO COINCIDE WITH
PRECIP...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY.

AS FOR THE MAIN THREATS...A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 6-18Z SUNDAY. AS WELL...WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT THESE WINDS BEING DRAGGED DOWN IN ANY
CONVECTION...EVEN LOP TOPPED...CREATING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
THEN...IF PRECIP DOES HOLD ON WHEN THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES
IN...WE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND.
WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO REALIZE THE SHEAR AND HELCITY. EVEN SO...THE CHANCE OF ROTATION
WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BUT IF THE TIMING COMES TOGETHER IN A MORE
FAVORABLE MANNER THE CHANCE MAY INCREASE. IN TERMS OF WIND...WITH
THE DEEP INVERSION...THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY MIX DOWN IN
CONVECTION SO DO NOT EXPECT SYNOPTIC SCALE STRONG WINDS.

BEHIND THIS DEEP UPPER LOW...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH WITH COOLER AIR AND A NW WIND FILTERING IN. TEMPS TUE-
THUS WILL BE BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
LATEST IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A DECK OF SCT TO BKN
CLOUDS BETWEEN 5 AND 7KFT LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MS THIS
EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10KTS. A
ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 202307 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
515 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE FA...AM EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN FLOW OFF THE GULF THROUGH THE LATTER 6 HRS OF THE
FORECAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THERE-AFTER.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. LOW 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL AREAS WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. /13

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY)...DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS IS DUE TO A
STRONG SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA...THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME NEGATIVE TILT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMING STRONGER AND DEEPER AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A SECONDARY WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF WATERS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING AS BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPS.
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT (WELL
DEFINED IN THE SFC THETA-E)...WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SERVES TO KEEP THE BEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE...WHICH IN TURN WOULD REDUCE THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE A GREATER THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY
SERVING AS A DEFINED FOCUS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY INFLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 40-50 KT WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES.
AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT LIKELY WILL GET A STRONGER PUSH INLAND BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO MISSISSIPPI. MLCAPES OF
UP TO 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL AL/NW FL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1 KM SHEAR OF
35 KT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG LINEAR FORCING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY FORCE A SQUALL LINE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE BOTH THREATS WITH THIS SETUP WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL BEING SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE
COAST. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SEVERE CONVECTION TO AN END
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.

RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 5-6 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AL/NW FL. DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING AS MANY RIVER STREAM FLOWS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE MAIN
THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...
AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

THE OVERALL EXTENT/TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SECONDARY WARM
FRONT. THEREFORE...SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 6AM SUN AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FURTHER EAST FROM 6AM SUNDAY
THROUGH NOON.

ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT TEMPORARILY
STALLS ALONG OR NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY COOL TO
BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW COOL IT WILL BY
THANKSGIVING...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  48  68  61 /  00  00  10  40  90
PENSACOLA   42  69  50  68  63 /  00  00  10  40  90
DESTIN      46  66  51  68  64 /  00  00  10  30  90
EVERGREEN   33  67  38  67  57 /  00  00  05  20  90
WAYNESBORO  38  68  41  68  58 /  00  00  05  30  90
CAMDEN      32  66  39  66  56 /  00  00  05  20  90
CRESTVIEW   33  69  41  67  60 /  00  00  10  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 202307 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
515 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE FA...AM EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN FLOW OFF THE GULF THROUGH THE LATTER 6 HRS OF THE
FORECAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THERE-AFTER.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. LOW 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL AREAS WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. /13

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY)...DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS IS DUE TO A
STRONG SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA...THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME NEGATIVE TILT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMING STRONGER AND DEEPER AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A SECONDARY WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF WATERS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING AS BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPS.
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT (WELL
DEFINED IN THE SFC THETA-E)...WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SERVES TO KEEP THE BEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE...WHICH IN TURN WOULD REDUCE THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE A GREATER THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY
SERVING AS A DEFINED FOCUS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY INFLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 40-50 KT WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES.
AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT LIKELY WILL GET A STRONGER PUSH INLAND BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO MISSISSIPPI. MLCAPES OF
UP TO 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL AL/NW FL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1 KM SHEAR OF
35 KT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG LINEAR FORCING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY FORCE A SQUALL LINE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE BOTH THREATS WITH THIS SETUP WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL BEING SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE
COAST. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SEVERE CONVECTION TO AN END
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.

RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 5-6 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AL/NW FL. DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING AS MANY RIVER STREAM FLOWS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE MAIN
THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...
AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

THE OVERALL EXTENT/TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SECONDARY WARM
FRONT. THEREFORE...SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 6AM SUN AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FURTHER EAST FROM 6AM SUNDAY
THROUGH NOON.

ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT TEMPORARILY
STALLS ALONG OR NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY COOL TO
BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW COOL IT WILL BY
THANKSGIVING...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  48  68  61 /  00  00  10  40  90
PENSACOLA   42  69  50  68  63 /  00  00  10  40  90
DESTIN      46  66  51  68  64 /  00  00  10  30  90
EVERGREEN   33  67  38  67  57 /  00  00  05  20  90
WAYNESBORO  38  68  41  68  58 /  00  00  05  30  90
CAMDEN      32  66  39  66  56 /  00  00  05  20  90
CRESTVIEW   33  69  41  67  60 /  00  00  10  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 202158
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WITH GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. LOW 40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL AREAS WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. /13

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY)...DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS IS DUE TO A
STRONG SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA...THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME NEGATIVE TILT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMING STRONGER AND DEEPER AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A SECONDARY WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF WATERS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING AS BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPS.
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT (WELL
DEFINED IN THE SFC THETA-E)...WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SERVES TO KEEP THE BEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE...WHICH IN TURN WOULD REDUCE THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE A GREATER THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY
SERVING AS A DEFINED FOCUS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY INFLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 40-50 KT WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES.
AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT LIKELY WILL GET A STRONGER PUSH INLAND BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO MISSISSIPPI. MLCAPES OF
UP TO 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL AL/NW FL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1 KM SHEAR OF
35 KT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG LINEAR FORCING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY FORCE A SQUALL LINE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE BOTH THREATS WITH THIS SETUP WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL BEING SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE
COAST. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SEVERE CONVECTION TO AN END
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.

RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 5-6 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AL/NW FL. DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING AS MANY RIVER STREAM FLOWS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE MAIN
THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...
AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

THE OVERALL EXTENT/TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SECONDARY WARM
FRONT. THEREFORE...SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 6AM SUN AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FURTHER EAST FROM 6AM SUNDAY
THROUGH NOON.

ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT TEMPORARILY
STALLS ALONG OR NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY COOL TO
BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW COOL IT WILL BY
THANKSGIVING...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  48  68  61 /  00  00  10  40  90
PENSACOLA   42  69  50  68  63 /  00  00  10  40  90
DESTIN      46  66  51  68  64 /  00  00  10  30  90
EVERGREEN   33  67  38  67  57 /  00  00  05  20  90
WAYNESBORO  38  68  41  68  58 /  00  00  05  30  90
CAMDEN      32  66  39  66  56 /  00  00  05  20  90
CRESTVIEW   33  69  41  67  60 /  00  00  10  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 202158
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WITH GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. LOW 40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL AREAS WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. /13

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY)...DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS IS DUE TO A
STRONG SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA...THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME NEGATIVE TILT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMING STRONGER AND DEEPER AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A SECONDARY WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF WATERS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING AS BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPS.
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT (WELL
DEFINED IN THE SFC THETA-E)...WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SERVES TO KEEP THE BEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE...WHICH IN TURN WOULD REDUCE THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE A GREATER THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY
SERVING AS A DEFINED FOCUS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY INFLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 40-50 KT WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES.
AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT LIKELY WILL GET A STRONGER PUSH INLAND BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO MISSISSIPPI. MLCAPES OF
UP TO 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL AL/NW FL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1 KM SHEAR OF
35 KT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG LINEAR FORCING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY FORCE A SQUALL LINE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE BOTH THREATS WITH THIS SETUP WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL BEING SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE
COAST. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SEVERE CONVECTION TO AN END
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.

RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 5-6 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AL/NW FL. DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING AS MANY RIVER STREAM FLOWS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE MAIN
THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...
AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

THE OVERALL EXTENT/TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SECONDARY WARM
FRONT. THEREFORE...SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 6AM SUN AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FURTHER EAST FROM 6AM SUNDAY
THROUGH NOON.

ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT TEMPORARILY
STALLS ALONG OR NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY COOL TO
BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW COOL IT WILL BY
THANKSGIVING...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  48  68  61 /  00  00  10  40  90
PENSACOLA   42  69  50  68  63 /  00  00  10  40  90
DESTIN      46  66  51  68  64 /  00  00  10  30  90
EVERGREEN   33  67  38  67  57 /  00  00  05  20  90
WAYNESBORO  38  68  41  68  58 /  00  00  05  30  90
CAMDEN      32  66  39  66  56 /  00  00  05  20  90
CRESTVIEW   33  69  41  67  60 /  00  00  10  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 202134
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS THE STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BRING AMPLE RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL IDEA OF RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE STILL SOME
IMPORTANT DETAILS THAT WE REALLY NEED TO START HASHING OUT. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO OUR WEST...IS ONE
THAT USUALLY CAUSES A RED FLAG TO GO UP TO AT LEAST INVESTIGATE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE. AND WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STILL LOW...IT IS SOMETHING THAT I STILL
THINK REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM (LARGELY EAST TO SOUTHEAST)...AND HOW THAT
WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET THE BEST MOISTURE (HIGHER DEWPOINTS) INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A BIG WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD WONT HELP MATTERS
IN THAT REGARD EITHER. BUT RIGHT BEFORE THE INITIAL DRY LINE MOVES
THROUGH (AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH)...THERE
IS A SHORT TIME WHEN WINDS COME MORE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
WILL THAT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO GET HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS? TOO HARD TO TELL
RIGHT NOW...BUT I WOULD SAY THE CHANCE IS NON-ZERO.

THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM LENDS SOME SUPPORT TO THIS IDEA.
ITS SLOWED DOWN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A TIME GAP BETWEEN
THE INITIAL SURGE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
CONVECTIVE WEATHER ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...IF THE TIMING ON THE NAM
SLOWS DOWN MUCH MORE...WE COULD BE GETTING INTO A PEAK HEATING
SCENARIO AS THE DRY LINE (OR WHATEVER) MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. I GUESS THIS IS ALL JUST A LONG WINDED WAY OF
SAYING THAT...WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH WOULD BE MINIMAL
(OR NON- EXISTENT)...THERE IS AT LEAST ONE (PLAUSIBLE) SCENARIO
THAT EQUALLY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE STORMS (INCLUDING A TORNADO
THREAT) COULD BECOME A POSSIBILITY.

A RETURN TO COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO RUSH IN BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE HERE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS HOLDING ON TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL EASTERN STATES TROUGH.
MY GUT SAYS THAT THE MODELS TYPICALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT TOO QUICKLY
BEHIND SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS...BUT ALSO TEND TO HOLD ONTO SMALL
POPS TOO LONG AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR CLOUDS. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT OF A CLOUD
DECK BETWEEN 3-KFT ALONG THE FRONT...AND HAVE FAVORED THAT SOLUTION
ACROSS THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD BE LOW
AS WINDS DECOUPLE...LEADING TO GOOD FOG CONDITIONS. NOT SEEING ANY
SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND HAVE FAVORED FOG
AT MGM AND TOI.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...GIVEN THE MOISTURE POOLING OCCURRING RIGHT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ALSO...GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES COULD
BE LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH THAN THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED MVFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT REFINEMENTS WITH NEXT FORECAST.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  57  37  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
ANNISTON    35  59  38  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
BIRMINGHAM  38  60  42  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
TUSCALOOSA  40  64  44  64  56 /  10  10  10  10 100
CALERA      39  62  41  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
AUBURN      39  62  42  61  52 /   0   0   0  10  90
MONTGOMERY  37  66  41  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  90
TROY        37  64  42  65  57 /   0   0   0  10  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 202134
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS THE STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BRING AMPLE RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL IDEA OF RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE STILL SOME
IMPORTANT DETAILS THAT WE REALLY NEED TO START HASHING OUT. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO OUR WEST...IS ONE
THAT USUALLY CAUSES A RED FLAG TO GO UP TO AT LEAST INVESTIGATE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE. AND WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STILL LOW...IT IS SOMETHING THAT I STILL
THINK REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM (LARGELY EAST TO SOUTHEAST)...AND HOW THAT
WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET THE BEST MOISTURE (HIGHER DEWPOINTS) INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A BIG WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD WONT HELP MATTERS
IN THAT REGARD EITHER. BUT RIGHT BEFORE THE INITIAL DRY LINE MOVES
THROUGH (AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH)...THERE
IS A SHORT TIME WHEN WINDS COME MORE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
WILL THAT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO GET HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS? TOO HARD TO TELL
RIGHT NOW...BUT I WOULD SAY THE CHANCE IS NON-ZERO.

THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM LENDS SOME SUPPORT TO THIS IDEA.
ITS SLOWED DOWN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A TIME GAP BETWEEN
THE INITIAL SURGE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
CONVECTIVE WEATHER ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...IF THE TIMING ON THE NAM
SLOWS DOWN MUCH MORE...WE COULD BE GETTING INTO A PEAK HEATING
SCENARIO AS THE DRY LINE (OR WHATEVER) MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. I GUESS THIS IS ALL JUST A LONG WINDED WAY OF
SAYING THAT...WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH WOULD BE MINIMAL
(OR NON- EXISTENT)...THERE IS AT LEAST ONE (PLAUSIBLE) SCENARIO
THAT EQUALLY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE STORMS (INCLUDING A TORNADO
THREAT) COULD BECOME A POSSIBILITY.

A RETURN TO COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO RUSH IN BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE HERE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS HOLDING ON TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL EASTERN STATES TROUGH.
MY GUT SAYS THAT THE MODELS TYPICALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT TOO QUICKLY
BEHIND SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS...BUT ALSO TEND TO HOLD ONTO SMALL
POPS TOO LONG AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR CLOUDS. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT OF A CLOUD
DECK BETWEEN 3-KFT ALONG THE FRONT...AND HAVE FAVORED THAT SOLUTION
ACROSS THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD BE LOW
AS WINDS DECOUPLE...LEADING TO GOOD FOG CONDITIONS. NOT SEEING ANY
SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND HAVE FAVORED FOG
AT MGM AND TOI.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...GIVEN THE MOISTURE POOLING OCCURRING RIGHT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ALSO...GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES COULD
BE LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH THAN THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED MVFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT REFINEMENTS WITH NEXT FORECAST.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  57  37  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
ANNISTON    35  59  38  59  50 /   0   0   0  10  90
BIRMINGHAM  38  60  42  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
TUSCALOOSA  40  64  44  64  56 /  10  10  10  10 100
CALERA      39  62  41  62  54 /   0   0   0  10  90
AUBURN      39  62  42  61  52 /   0   0   0  10  90
MONTGOMERY  37  66  41  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  90
TROY        37  64  42  65  57 /   0   0   0  10  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 202004
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
204 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT. AS THE HIGH
ROTATES TO THE EAST...A PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IF LESS CLOUD
COVER MATERIALIZES...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN. CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...IT MAY KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA WITH LESS CLOUDS. AS THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES
EAST...CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW AND HIGH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL VALUES WILL FINALLY BE REACHED.

THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN EASTERN TEXAS AND DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM THAT ARE WORTH NOTING.

DYNAMICS ARE STRONG WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS BETWEEN 6-18Z LEADING TO VERY HIGH SHEAR VALUES. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR IS 60-70KTS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT. EVEN ABOVE
THE LLJ...WINDS WILL BE 70-80KT THROUGH THE PROFILE. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HELICITY VALUES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 400-500
RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER AT TIMES.

IN TERMS OF MOISTURE...PLENTY OF IT WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS SYSTEM
WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

THE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH THIS EVENT...EVEN WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. BUT BECAUSE
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE 18Z...THESE WARMER
TEMPS WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A
STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND STRONG INVERSION AT THE LOW LEVELS.
SURFACE BASED AND MUCAPE IS ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG BRIEFLY
BETWEEN 12-18Z. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY LOW LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT THE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.

THE TIMING OF ALL OF THE FEATURES IS WHAT WILL DETERMINE THE
ULTIMATE OUTCOME. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH TIMING IS THAT THE PRECIP AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET COME BEFORE 18Z WHEN INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
THEN...MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY ROTATES IN BEHIND THE DEEPENING
LOW. THIS WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...IF THE TIMING CAN HOLD OFF A FEW HOURS
TO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE ALONG WITH
GETTING ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO COINCIDE WITH
PRECIP...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY.

AS FOR THE MAIN THREATS...A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 6-18Z SUNDAY. AS WELL...WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT THESE WINDS BEING DRAGGED DOWN IN ANY
CONVECTION...EVEN LOP TOPPED...CREATING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
THEN...IF PRECIP DOES HOLD ON WHEN THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES
IN...WE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND.
WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO REALIZE THE SHEAR AND HELCITY. EVEN SO...THE CHANCE OF ROTATION
WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BUT IF THE TIMING COMES TOGETHER IN A MORE
FAVORABLE MANNER THE CHANCE MAY INCREASE. IN TERMS OF WIND...WITH
THE DEEP INVERSION...THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY MIX DOWN IN
CONVECTION SO DO NOT EXPECT SYNOPTIC SCALE STRONG WINDS.

BEHIND THIS DEEP UPPER LOW...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH WITH COOLER AIR AND A NW WIND FILTERING IN. TEMPS TUE-
THUS WILL BE BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1123 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
AT MSL AROUND 23Z AND HSV BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    33  55  38  61 /   0   0  10  20
SHOALS        33  57  40  63 /   0  10  10  20
VINEMONT      32  57  38  60 /   0   0  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  30  54  37  59 /   0   0  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   31  55  34  59 /   0   0  10  20
FORT PAYNE    31  54  36  57 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 202004
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
204 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT. AS THE HIGH
ROTATES TO THE EAST...A PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IF LESS CLOUD
COVER MATERIALIZES...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN. CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...IT MAY KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA WITH LESS CLOUDS. AS THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES
EAST...CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW AND HIGH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL VALUES WILL FINALLY BE REACHED.

THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN EASTERN TEXAS AND DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM THAT ARE WORTH NOTING.

DYNAMICS ARE STRONG WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS BETWEEN 6-18Z LEADING TO VERY HIGH SHEAR VALUES. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR IS 60-70KTS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT. EVEN ABOVE
THE LLJ...WINDS WILL BE 70-80KT THROUGH THE PROFILE. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HELICITY VALUES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 400-500
RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER AT TIMES.

IN TERMS OF MOISTURE...PLENTY OF IT WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS SYSTEM
WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

THE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH THIS EVENT...EVEN WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. BUT BECAUSE
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE 18Z...THESE WARMER
TEMPS WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A
STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND STRONG INVERSION AT THE LOW LEVELS.
SURFACE BASED AND MUCAPE IS ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG BRIEFLY
BETWEEN 12-18Z. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY LOW LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT THE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.

THE TIMING OF ALL OF THE FEATURES IS WHAT WILL DETERMINE THE
ULTIMATE OUTCOME. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH TIMING IS THAT THE PRECIP AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET COME BEFORE 18Z WHEN INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
THEN...MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY ROTATES IN BEHIND THE DEEPENING
LOW. THIS WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...IF THE TIMING CAN HOLD OFF A FEW HOURS
TO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE ALONG WITH
GETTING ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO COINCIDE WITH
PRECIP...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY.

AS FOR THE MAIN THREATS...A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 6-18Z SUNDAY. AS WELL...WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT THESE WINDS BEING DRAGGED DOWN IN ANY
CONVECTION...EVEN LOP TOPPED...CREATING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
THEN...IF PRECIP DOES HOLD ON WHEN THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES
IN...WE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND.
WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO REALIZE THE SHEAR AND HELCITY. EVEN SO...THE CHANCE OF ROTATION
WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BUT IF THE TIMING COMES TOGETHER IN A MORE
FAVORABLE MANNER THE CHANCE MAY INCREASE. IN TERMS OF WIND...WITH
THE DEEP INVERSION...THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY MIX DOWN IN
CONVECTION SO DO NOT EXPECT SYNOPTIC SCALE STRONG WINDS.

BEHIND THIS DEEP UPPER LOW...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH WITH COOLER AIR AND A NW WIND FILTERING IN. TEMPS TUE-
THUS WILL BE BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1123 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
AT MSL AROUND 23Z AND HSV BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    33  55  38  61 /   0   0  10  20
SHOALS        33  57  40  63 /   0  10  10  20
VINEMONT      32  57  38  60 /   0   0  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  30  54  37  59 /   0   0  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   31  55  34  59 /   0   0  10  20
FORT PAYNE    31  54  36  57 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 201752 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TENNESSEE BACK TO NEAR OXFORD MS. THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT WASHES OUT.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DO NOT
EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WITHIN ZONAL FLOW.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALSO COMES AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TONIGHT...AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST COULD DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES AS
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND IN THAT AREA.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR CLOUDS. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT OF A CLOUD
DECK BETWEEN 3-KFT ALONG THE FRONT...AND HAVE FAVORED THAT SOLUTION
ACROSS THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD BE LOW
AS WINDS DECOUPLE...LEADING TO GOOD FOG CONDITIONS. NOT SEEING ANY
SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND HAVE FAVORED FOG
AT MGM AND TOI.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...GIVEN THE MOISTURE POOLING OCCURRING RIGHT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ALSO...GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES COULD
BE LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH THAN THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED MVFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT REFINEMENTS WITH NEXT FORECAST.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 547 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF HAS PRODUCED
SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AS THE CONVERGENCE DECREASES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTH ALABAMA TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS INTO WEST ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
..BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY DUE TO
AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
INTO TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 850MB AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
AND 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND
60 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO THE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR OR WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL
STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR...THERE WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 12 NOON. AS
A DRY LINE APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE BEST FORCING STAYS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND FOR THIS REASON CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    57  33  60  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  58  36  60  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  58  38  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
CALERA      57  38  62  40  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  38  62  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  36  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        62  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 201752 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TENNESSEE BACK TO NEAR OXFORD MS. THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT WASHES OUT.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DO NOT
EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WITHIN ZONAL FLOW.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALSO COMES AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TONIGHT...AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST COULD DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES AS
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND IN THAT AREA.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR CLOUDS. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT OF A CLOUD
DECK BETWEEN 3-KFT ALONG THE FRONT...AND HAVE FAVORED THAT SOLUTION
ACROSS THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD BE LOW
AS WINDS DECOUPLE...LEADING TO GOOD FOG CONDITIONS. NOT SEEING ANY
SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND HAVE FAVORED FOG
AT MGM AND TOI.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...GIVEN THE MOISTURE POOLING OCCURRING RIGHT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ALSO...GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES COULD
BE LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH THAN THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED MVFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT REFINEMENTS WITH NEXT FORECAST.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 547 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF HAS PRODUCED
SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AS THE CONVERGENCE DECREASES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTH ALABAMA TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS INTO WEST ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
..BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY DUE TO
AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
INTO TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 850MB AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
AND 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND
60 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO THE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR OR WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL
STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR...THERE WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 12 NOON. AS
A DRY LINE APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE BEST FORCING STAYS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND FOR THIS REASON CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    57  33  60  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  58  36  60  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  58  38  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
CALERA      57  38  62  40  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  38  62  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  36  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        62  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 201752 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TENNESSEE BACK TO NEAR OXFORD MS. THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT WASHES OUT.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DO NOT
EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WITHIN ZONAL FLOW.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALSO COMES AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TONIGHT...AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST COULD DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES AS
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND IN THAT AREA.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR CLOUDS. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT OF A CLOUD
DECK BETWEEN 3-KFT ALONG THE FRONT...AND HAVE FAVORED THAT SOLUTION
ACROSS THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD BE LOW
AS WINDS DECOUPLE...LEADING TO GOOD FOG CONDITIONS. NOT SEEING ANY
SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND HAVE FAVORED FOG
AT MGM AND TOI.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...GIVEN THE MOISTURE POOLING OCCURRING RIGHT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ALSO...GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES COULD
BE LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH THAN THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED MVFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT REFINEMENTS WITH NEXT FORECAST.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 547 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF HAS PRODUCED
SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AS THE CONVERGENCE DECREASES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTH ALABAMA TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS INTO WEST ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
..BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY DUE TO
AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
INTO TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 850MB AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
AND 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND
60 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO THE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR OR WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL
STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR...THERE WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 12 NOON. AS
A DRY LINE APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE BEST FORCING STAYS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND FOR THIS REASON CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    57  33  60  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  58  36  60  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  58  38  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
CALERA      57  38  62  40  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  38  62  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  36  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        62  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 201752 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TENNESSEE BACK TO NEAR OXFORD MS. THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT WASHES OUT.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DO NOT
EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WITHIN ZONAL FLOW.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALSO COMES AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TONIGHT...AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST COULD DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES AS
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND IN THAT AREA.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR CLOUDS. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT OF A CLOUD
DECK BETWEEN 3-KFT ALONG THE FRONT...AND HAVE FAVORED THAT SOLUTION
ACROSS THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD BE LOW
AS WINDS DECOUPLE...LEADING TO GOOD FOG CONDITIONS. NOT SEEING ANY
SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND HAVE FAVORED FOG
AT MGM AND TOI.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...GIVEN THE MOISTURE POOLING OCCURRING RIGHT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ALSO...GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES COULD
BE LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH THAN THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED MVFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT REFINEMENTS WITH NEXT FORECAST.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 547 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF HAS PRODUCED
SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AS THE CONVERGENCE DECREASES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTH ALABAMA TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS INTO WEST ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
..BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY DUE TO
AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
INTO TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 850MB AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
AND 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND
60 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO THE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR OR WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL
STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR...THERE WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 12 NOON. AS
A DRY LINE APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE BEST FORCING STAYS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND FOR THIS REASON CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    57  33  60  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  58  36  60  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  58  38  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
CALERA      57  38  62  40  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  38  62  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  36  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        62  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 201751 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1151 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20.12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO A BETTER PRES/TEMP GRADIENT
GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALOFT UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
BEGIN TO DIG LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER EASTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF IS ALSO NOTED IN THE
MID LEVELS...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING...
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST AND DAMPEN LEADING MOSTLY TO
BETTER HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TODAY WITH BETTER
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO THE ONSET OF HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY LATE IN THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE BETTER CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 60S
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE EAST AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S TO THE WEST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY AND SATURDAY]...AN UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING NORTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO REGION WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LARGE DOME OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ON FRIDAY AND A MODERATE FLOW ON
SATURDAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT INSTABILITY CONTINUES
TO BE LOW WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND WITH AN 850 MB JET INCREASING TO NEAR
50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH. IN
FACT...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES TO REACH BETWEEN 500 AND 700 M2/S2. IF INSTABILITY
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION...THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY FAST MOVING ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
HAVE A FAVORABLE CHANCE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINED WINDS. DUE TO
EXTREMELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS RESULTING IN STORMS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 45 MPH...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL
LIKELY HAPPEN VERY QUICKLY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS AND INFORMATION AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70
DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 42 AND 49 DEGREES
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 65 DEGREES...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 57 AND 64 DEGREES.

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM. BUT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING SO FAR
NORTHWARD...SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AFTER THE PASSING OF THE FASTER MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONGER DYNAMICS. /22

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRI
THROUGH SAT REACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY EARLY SAT. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING. SEAS UP TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW SAT INTO SUN. A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MON THROUGH TUE. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  68  49  67  61 /  00  00  10  50  90
PENSACOLA   46  67  51  67  63 /  00  00  20  40  90
DESTIN      47  67  51  67  64 /  00  00  20  40  90
EVERGREEN   36  66  42  67  58 /  00  00  20  30  90
WAYNESBORO  40  68  42  67  58 /  00  00  10  30  90
CAMDEN      35  66  42  66  57 /  00  00  20  20  90
CRESTVIEW   34  67  44  68  60 /  00  00  20  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 201751 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1151 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20.12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO A BETTER PRES/TEMP GRADIENT
GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALOFT UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
BEGIN TO DIG LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER EASTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF IS ALSO NOTED IN THE
MID LEVELS...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING...
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST AND DAMPEN LEADING MOSTLY TO
BETTER HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TODAY WITH BETTER
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO THE ONSET OF HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY LATE IN THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE BETTER CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 60S
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE EAST AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S TO THE WEST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY AND SATURDAY]...AN UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING NORTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO REGION WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LARGE DOME OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ON FRIDAY AND A MODERATE FLOW ON
SATURDAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT INSTABILITY CONTINUES
TO BE LOW WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND WITH AN 850 MB JET INCREASING TO NEAR
50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH. IN
FACT...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES TO REACH BETWEEN 500 AND 700 M2/S2. IF INSTABILITY
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION...THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY FAST MOVING ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
HAVE A FAVORABLE CHANCE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINED WINDS. DUE TO
EXTREMELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS RESULTING IN STORMS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 45 MPH...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL
LIKELY HAPPEN VERY QUICKLY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS AND INFORMATION AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70
DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 42 AND 49 DEGREES
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 65 DEGREES...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 57 AND 64 DEGREES.

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM. BUT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING SO FAR
NORTHWARD...SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AFTER THE PASSING OF THE FASTER MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONGER DYNAMICS. /22

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRI
THROUGH SAT REACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY EARLY SAT. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING. SEAS UP TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW SAT INTO SUN. A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MON THROUGH TUE. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  68  49  67  61 /  00  00  10  50  90
PENSACOLA   46  67  51  67  63 /  00  00  20  40  90
DESTIN      47  67  51  67  64 /  00  00  20  40  90
EVERGREEN   36  66  42  67  58 /  00  00  20  30  90
WAYNESBORO  40  68  42  67  58 /  00  00  10  30  90
CAMDEN      35  66  42  66  57 /  00  00  20  20  90
CRESTVIEW   34  67  44  68  60 /  00  00  20  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 201751 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1151 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20.12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO A BETTER PRES/TEMP GRADIENT
GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALOFT UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
BEGIN TO DIG LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER EASTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF IS ALSO NOTED IN THE
MID LEVELS...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING...
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST AND DAMPEN LEADING MOSTLY TO
BETTER HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TODAY WITH BETTER
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO THE ONSET OF HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY LATE IN THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE BETTER CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 60S
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE EAST AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S TO THE WEST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY AND SATURDAY]...AN UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING NORTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO REGION WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LARGE DOME OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ON FRIDAY AND A MODERATE FLOW ON
SATURDAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT INSTABILITY CONTINUES
TO BE LOW WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND WITH AN 850 MB JET INCREASING TO NEAR
50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH. IN
FACT...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES TO REACH BETWEEN 500 AND 700 M2/S2. IF INSTABILITY
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION...THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY FAST MOVING ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
HAVE A FAVORABLE CHANCE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINED WINDS. DUE TO
EXTREMELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS RESULTING IN STORMS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 45 MPH...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL
LIKELY HAPPEN VERY QUICKLY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS AND INFORMATION AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70
DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 42 AND 49 DEGREES
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 65 DEGREES...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 57 AND 64 DEGREES.

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM. BUT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING SO FAR
NORTHWARD...SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AFTER THE PASSING OF THE FASTER MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONGER DYNAMICS. /22

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRI
THROUGH SAT REACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY EARLY SAT. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING. SEAS UP TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW SAT INTO SUN. A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MON THROUGH TUE. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  68  49  67  61 /  00  00  10  50  90
PENSACOLA   46  67  51  67  63 /  00  00  20  40  90
DESTIN      47  67  51  67  64 /  00  00  20  40  90
EVERGREEN   36  66  42  67  58 /  00  00  20  30  90
WAYNESBORO  40  68  42  67  58 /  00  00  10  30  90
CAMDEN      35  66  42  66  57 /  00  00  20  20  90
CRESTVIEW   34  67  44  68  60 /  00  00  20  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 201751 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1151 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20.12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO A BETTER PRES/TEMP GRADIENT
GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALOFT UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
BEGIN TO DIG LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER EASTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF IS ALSO NOTED IN THE
MID LEVELS...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING...
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST AND DAMPEN LEADING MOSTLY TO
BETTER HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TODAY WITH BETTER
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO THE ONSET OF HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY LATE IN THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE BETTER CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 60S
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE EAST AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S TO THE WEST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY AND SATURDAY]...AN UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING NORTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO REGION WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LARGE DOME OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ON FRIDAY AND A MODERATE FLOW ON
SATURDAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT INSTABILITY CONTINUES
TO BE LOW WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND WITH AN 850 MB JET INCREASING TO NEAR
50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH. IN
FACT...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES TO REACH BETWEEN 500 AND 700 M2/S2. IF INSTABILITY
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION...THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY FAST MOVING ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
HAVE A FAVORABLE CHANCE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINED WINDS. DUE TO
EXTREMELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS RESULTING IN STORMS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 45 MPH...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL
LIKELY HAPPEN VERY QUICKLY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS AND INFORMATION AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70
DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 42 AND 49 DEGREES
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 65 DEGREES...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 57 AND 64 DEGREES.

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM. BUT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING SO FAR
NORTHWARD...SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AFTER THE PASSING OF THE FASTER MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONGER DYNAMICS. /22

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRI
THROUGH SAT REACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY EARLY SAT. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING. SEAS UP TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW SAT INTO SUN. A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MON THROUGH TUE. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  68  49  67  61 /  00  00  10  50  90
PENSACOLA   46  67  51  67  63 /  00  00  20  40  90
DESTIN      47  67  51  67  64 /  00  00  20  40  90
EVERGREEN   36  66  42  67  58 /  00  00  20  30  90
WAYNESBORO  40  68  42  67  58 /  00  00  10  30  90
CAMDEN      35  66  42  66  57 /  00  00  20  20  90
CRESTVIEW   34  67  44  68  60 /  00  00  20  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 201723 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1123 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1035 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TEMPS WERE ALREADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN
NORTH ALABAMA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ALONG THE NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA.

HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE DECREASED THE CLOUD GRIDS TO BE CLOSER TO SUNNY
SKIES. HAVE ALSO UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TEMP TRENDS. WILL BE ISSUING THE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
AT MSL AROUND 23Z AND HSV BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201723 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1123 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1035 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TEMPS WERE ALREADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN
NORTH ALABAMA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ALONG THE NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA.

HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE DECREASED THE CLOUD GRIDS TO BE CLOSER TO SUNNY
SKIES. HAVE ALSO UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TEMP TRENDS. WILL BE ISSUING THE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
AT MSL AROUND 23Z AND HSV BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201723 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1123 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1035 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TEMPS WERE ALREADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN
NORTH ALABAMA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ALONG THE NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA.

HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE DECREASED THE CLOUD GRIDS TO BE CLOSER TO SUNNY
SKIES. HAVE ALSO UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TEMP TRENDS. WILL BE ISSUING THE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
AT MSL AROUND 23Z AND HSV BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201723 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1123 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1035 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TEMPS WERE ALREADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN
NORTH ALABAMA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ALONG THE NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA.

HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE DECREASED THE CLOUD GRIDS TO BE CLOSER TO SUNNY
SKIES. HAVE ALSO UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TEMP TRENDS. WILL BE ISSUING THE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
AT MSL AROUND 23Z AND HSV BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201635 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1035 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TEMPS WERE ALREADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN
NORTH ALABAMA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ALONG THE NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA.

HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE DECREASED THE CLOUD GRIDS TO BE CLOSER TO SUNNY
SKIES. HAVE ALSO UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TEMP TRENDS. WILL BE ISSUING THE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR NOW...AS
A REINFORCING COLD LOCATED ACROSS MID/ERN TN GRADUALLY MAKES IT`S WAY
WAY SWD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER...EMBEDDED WITHIN A WSWLY FLOW
REGIME...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY LATER
TODAY...AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS ERN TX.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    32  54  39  60 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        33  56  41  63 /   0  10  10  10
VINEMONT      32  55  39  62 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  29  52  38  59 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   30  53  37  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    31  53  35  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201635 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1035 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TEMPS WERE ALREADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN
NORTH ALABAMA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ALONG THE NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA.

HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE DECREASED THE CLOUD GRIDS TO BE CLOSER TO SUNNY
SKIES. HAVE ALSO UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TEMP TRENDS. WILL BE ISSUING THE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR NOW...AS
A REINFORCING COLD LOCATED ACROSS MID/ERN TN GRADUALLY MAKES IT`S WAY
WAY SWD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER...EMBEDDED WITHIN A WSWLY FLOW
REGIME...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY LATER
TODAY...AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS ERN TX.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    32  54  39  60 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        33  56  41  63 /   0  10  10  10
VINEMONT      32  55  39  62 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  29  52  38  59 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   30  53  37  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    31  53  35  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 201618 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1018 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TENNESSEE BACK TO NEAR OXFORD MS. THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT WASHES OUT.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DO NOT
EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WITHIN ZONAL FLOW.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALSO COMES AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TONIGHT...AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST COULD DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES AS
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND IN THAT AREA.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BKN MVFR TO VFR CIGS STRETCH WEST TO EAST FROM TCL TO ANB THIS
MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS CLOUD AXIS TODAY...WITH
SCT/3KFT AND BKN/5FKT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST
AT 6-7KTS AND DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO
ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 547 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF HAS PRODUCED
SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AS THE CONVERGENCE DECREASES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTH ALABAMA TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS INTO WEST ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
..BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY DUE TO
AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
INTO TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 850MB AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
AND 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND
60 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO THE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR OR WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL
STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR...THERE WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 12 NOON. AS
A DRY LINE APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE BEST FORCING STAYS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND FOR THIS REASON CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    57  33  60  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  58  36  60  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  58  38  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
CALERA      57  38  62  40  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  38  62  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  36  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        62  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201618 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1018 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TENNESSEE BACK TO NEAR OXFORD MS. THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT WASHES OUT.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DO NOT
EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WITHIN ZONAL FLOW.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALSO COMES AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TONIGHT...AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST COULD DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES AS
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND IN THAT AREA.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BKN MVFR TO VFR CIGS STRETCH WEST TO EAST FROM TCL TO ANB THIS
MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS CLOUD AXIS TODAY...WITH
SCT/3KFT AND BKN/5FKT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST
AT 6-7KTS AND DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO
ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 547 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF HAS PRODUCED
SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AS THE CONVERGENCE DECREASES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTH ALABAMA TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS INTO WEST ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
..BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY DUE TO
AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
INTO TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 850MB AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
AND 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND
60 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO THE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR OR WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL
STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR...THERE WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 12 NOON. AS
A DRY LINE APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE BEST FORCING STAYS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND FOR THIS REASON CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    57  33  60  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  58  36  60  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  58  38  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
CALERA      57  38  62  40  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  38  62  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  36  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        62  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201618 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1018 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TENNESSEE BACK TO NEAR OXFORD MS. THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT WASHES OUT.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DO NOT
EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WITHIN ZONAL FLOW.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALSO COMES AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TONIGHT...AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST COULD DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES AS
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND IN THAT AREA.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BKN MVFR TO VFR CIGS STRETCH WEST TO EAST FROM TCL TO ANB THIS
MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS CLOUD AXIS TODAY...WITH
SCT/3KFT AND BKN/5FKT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST
AT 6-7KTS AND DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO
ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 547 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF HAS PRODUCED
SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AS THE CONVERGENCE DECREASES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTH ALABAMA TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS INTO WEST ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
..BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY DUE TO
AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
INTO TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 850MB AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
AND 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND
60 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO THE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR OR WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL
STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR...THERE WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 12 NOON. AS
A DRY LINE APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE BEST FORCING STAYS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND FOR THIS REASON CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    57  33  60  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  58  36  60  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  58  38  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
CALERA      57  38  62  40  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  38  62  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  36  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        62  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201618 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1018 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TENNESSEE BACK TO NEAR OXFORD MS. THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT WASHES OUT.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DO NOT
EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WITHIN ZONAL FLOW.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALSO COMES AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TONIGHT...AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST COULD DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES AS
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND IN THAT AREA.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BKN MVFR TO VFR CIGS STRETCH WEST TO EAST FROM TCL TO ANB THIS
MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS CLOUD AXIS TODAY...WITH
SCT/3KFT AND BKN/5FKT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST
AT 6-7KTS AND DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO
ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 547 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF HAS PRODUCED
SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AS THE CONVERGENCE DECREASES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTH ALABAMA TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS INTO WEST ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
..BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY DUE TO
AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
INTO TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 850MB AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
AND 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND
60 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO THE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR OR WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL
STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR...THERE WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 12 NOON. AS
A DRY LINE APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE BEST FORCING STAYS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND FOR THIS REASON CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    57  33  60  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  58  36  60  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  58  38  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
CALERA      57  38  62  40  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  38  62  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  36  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        62  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 201158 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 215 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
BRISK WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WAS SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THE
TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO ERN KY
THRU MIDDLE TN AND AR. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND W-SWLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAS GENERATED A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS ERN TN INTO AL AND MS.
SWLY SFC FLOW HAS PICKED UP AS WELL AND HELPED TO PUSH TEMPS UPWARD
INTO THE L-M40S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS HAD
DIPPED INTO THE 20S WED EVENING BUT ARE CREEPING BACK INTO THE 30S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SWWD THRU OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A COLD AND DRY NELY FETCH DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH THE U40S-L50S THIS AFTN, BUT THEN DROP OFF INTO THE
U20-L30S TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW, WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING RAPIDLY IN THE 8-7H LAYERS THAT WILL
LIKELY GENERATE MID LEVEL CIGS TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS MAY COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION IN THESE LOCATIONS,
SO THERE MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTMENTS LATER TODAY ON FORECAST MINS
TONIGHT.

NO LARGE CHANGES IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE WERE NEEDED. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS THIS
WEEKEND IN TX TRACKING NE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS FORECASTS BOMBOGENESIS AND THE ECMWF IS ONLY A FEW MB BEHIND ON
THE 24H PRESSURE DROP. THIS WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE A STRONG SLY LLJ
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO DURING THIS PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE COOL
SECTOR (NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT) SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS PRONOUNCED, SO EVEN SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY INDUCE
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SFC. THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO BE 70-75KT JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF AT 2500-3000 FT AGL, SO WE`LL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY. FORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO FCST SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
MORNING (09-12Z IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND 12-15Z OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA). WITH 1KM SRH VALUES OVER 700 M2/S2, WE`LL STILL HAVE TO BE
COGNIZANT OF QUICK MESO-VORTEX DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IN OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NERN AL. A VERY STRONG DRY PUNCH SHOULD MAKE
FOR A QUICK EXIT OF PRECIP LATE SUNDAY MORNING, LEAVING A DRY
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LEFT A SCHC OF -SHRA SUNDAY NIGHT PER COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, BUT THIS MAY BE ABLE TO PULLED COMPLETELY
IN FUTURE UPDATES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DRY SLOT.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE AND UPPER DYNAMICS
RETREATING WELL TO THE N-NE ON MONDAY, THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD
END UP A DRY ONE. AGAIN, HAVE LEFT THE LOW CHCS IN TO BLEND WITH
ADJACENT AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MODEL BLEND FORECAST WAS
NEEDED FOR THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, A SIGNIFICANT
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FOR THANKSGIVING IT WOULD APPEAR.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR NOW...AS
A REINFORCING COLD LOCATED ACROSS MID/ERN TN GRADUALLY MAKES IT`S WAY
WAY SWD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER...EMBEDDED WITHIN A WSWLY FLOW
REGIME...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY LATER
TODAY...AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS ERN TX.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201158 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 215 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
BRISK WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WAS SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THE
TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO ERN KY
THRU MIDDLE TN AND AR. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND W-SWLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAS GENERATED A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS ERN TN INTO AL AND MS.
SWLY SFC FLOW HAS PICKED UP AS WELL AND HELPED TO PUSH TEMPS UPWARD
INTO THE L-M40S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS HAD
DIPPED INTO THE 20S WED EVENING BUT ARE CREEPING BACK INTO THE 30S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SWWD THRU OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A COLD AND DRY NELY FETCH DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH THE U40S-L50S THIS AFTN, BUT THEN DROP OFF INTO THE
U20-L30S TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW, WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING RAPIDLY IN THE 8-7H LAYERS THAT WILL
LIKELY GENERATE MID LEVEL CIGS TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS MAY COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION IN THESE LOCATIONS,
SO THERE MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTMENTS LATER TODAY ON FORECAST MINS
TONIGHT.

NO LARGE CHANGES IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE WERE NEEDED. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS THIS
WEEKEND IN TX TRACKING NE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS FORECASTS BOMBOGENESIS AND THE ECMWF IS ONLY A FEW MB BEHIND ON
THE 24H PRESSURE DROP. THIS WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE A STRONG SLY LLJ
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO DURING THIS PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE COOL
SECTOR (NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT) SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS PRONOUNCED, SO EVEN SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY INDUCE
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SFC. THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO BE 70-75KT JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF AT 2500-3000 FT AGL, SO WE`LL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY. FORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO FCST SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
MORNING (09-12Z IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND 12-15Z OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA). WITH 1KM SRH VALUES OVER 700 M2/S2, WE`LL STILL HAVE TO BE
COGNIZANT OF QUICK MESO-VORTEX DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IN OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NERN AL. A VERY STRONG DRY PUNCH SHOULD MAKE
FOR A QUICK EXIT OF PRECIP LATE SUNDAY MORNING, LEAVING A DRY
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LEFT A SCHC OF -SHRA SUNDAY NIGHT PER COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, BUT THIS MAY BE ABLE TO PULLED COMPLETELY
IN FUTURE UPDATES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DRY SLOT.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE AND UPPER DYNAMICS
RETREATING WELL TO THE N-NE ON MONDAY, THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD
END UP A DRY ONE. AGAIN, HAVE LEFT THE LOW CHCS IN TO BLEND WITH
ADJACENT AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MODEL BLEND FORECAST WAS
NEEDED FOR THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, A SIGNIFICANT
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FOR THANKSGIVING IT WOULD APPEAR.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR NOW...AS
A REINFORCING COLD LOCATED ACROSS MID/ERN TN GRADUALLY MAKES IT`S WAY
WAY SWD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER...EMBEDDED WITHIN A WSWLY FLOW
REGIME...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY LATER
TODAY...AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS ERN TX.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201158 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 215 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
BRISK WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WAS SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THE
TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO ERN KY
THRU MIDDLE TN AND AR. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND W-SWLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAS GENERATED A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS ERN TN INTO AL AND MS.
SWLY SFC FLOW HAS PICKED UP AS WELL AND HELPED TO PUSH TEMPS UPWARD
INTO THE L-M40S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS HAD
DIPPED INTO THE 20S WED EVENING BUT ARE CREEPING BACK INTO THE 30S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SWWD THRU OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A COLD AND DRY NELY FETCH DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH THE U40S-L50S THIS AFTN, BUT THEN DROP OFF INTO THE
U20-L30S TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW, WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING RAPIDLY IN THE 8-7H LAYERS THAT WILL
LIKELY GENERATE MID LEVEL CIGS TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS MAY COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION IN THESE LOCATIONS,
SO THERE MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTMENTS LATER TODAY ON FORECAST MINS
TONIGHT.

NO LARGE CHANGES IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE WERE NEEDED. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS THIS
WEEKEND IN TX TRACKING NE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS FORECASTS BOMBOGENESIS AND THE ECMWF IS ONLY A FEW MB BEHIND ON
THE 24H PRESSURE DROP. THIS WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE A STRONG SLY LLJ
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO DURING THIS PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE COOL
SECTOR (NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT) SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS PRONOUNCED, SO EVEN SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY INDUCE
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SFC. THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO BE 70-75KT JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF AT 2500-3000 FT AGL, SO WE`LL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY. FORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO FCST SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
MORNING (09-12Z IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND 12-15Z OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA). WITH 1KM SRH VALUES OVER 700 M2/S2, WE`LL STILL HAVE TO BE
COGNIZANT OF QUICK MESO-VORTEX DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IN OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NERN AL. A VERY STRONG DRY PUNCH SHOULD MAKE
FOR A QUICK EXIT OF PRECIP LATE SUNDAY MORNING, LEAVING A DRY
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LEFT A SCHC OF -SHRA SUNDAY NIGHT PER COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, BUT THIS MAY BE ABLE TO PULLED COMPLETELY
IN FUTURE UPDATES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DRY SLOT.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE AND UPPER DYNAMICS
RETREATING WELL TO THE N-NE ON MONDAY, THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD
END UP A DRY ONE. AGAIN, HAVE LEFT THE LOW CHCS IN TO BLEND WITH
ADJACENT AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MODEL BLEND FORECAST WAS
NEEDED FOR THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, A SIGNIFICANT
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FOR THANKSGIVING IT WOULD APPEAR.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR NOW...AS
A REINFORCING COLD LOCATED ACROSS MID/ERN TN GRADUALLY MAKES IT`S WAY
WAY SWD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER...EMBEDDED WITHIN A WSWLY FLOW
REGIME...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY LATER
TODAY...AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS ERN TX.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201158 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 215 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
BRISK WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WAS SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THE
TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO ERN KY
THRU MIDDLE TN AND AR. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND W-SWLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAS GENERATED A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS ERN TN INTO AL AND MS.
SWLY SFC FLOW HAS PICKED UP AS WELL AND HELPED TO PUSH TEMPS UPWARD
INTO THE L-M40S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS HAD
DIPPED INTO THE 20S WED EVENING BUT ARE CREEPING BACK INTO THE 30S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SWWD THRU OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A COLD AND DRY NELY FETCH DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH THE U40S-L50S THIS AFTN, BUT THEN DROP OFF INTO THE
U20-L30S TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW, WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING RAPIDLY IN THE 8-7H LAYERS THAT WILL
LIKELY GENERATE MID LEVEL CIGS TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS MAY COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION IN THESE LOCATIONS,
SO THERE MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTMENTS LATER TODAY ON FORECAST MINS
TONIGHT.

NO LARGE CHANGES IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE WERE NEEDED. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS THIS
WEEKEND IN TX TRACKING NE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS FORECASTS BOMBOGENESIS AND THE ECMWF IS ONLY A FEW MB BEHIND ON
THE 24H PRESSURE DROP. THIS WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE A STRONG SLY LLJ
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO DURING THIS PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE COOL
SECTOR (NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT) SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS PRONOUNCED, SO EVEN SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY INDUCE
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SFC. THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO BE 70-75KT JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF AT 2500-3000 FT AGL, SO WE`LL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY. FORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO FCST SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
MORNING (09-12Z IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND 12-15Z OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA). WITH 1KM SRH VALUES OVER 700 M2/S2, WE`LL STILL HAVE TO BE
COGNIZANT OF QUICK MESO-VORTEX DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IN OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NERN AL. A VERY STRONG DRY PUNCH SHOULD MAKE
FOR A QUICK EXIT OF PRECIP LATE SUNDAY MORNING, LEAVING A DRY
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LEFT A SCHC OF -SHRA SUNDAY NIGHT PER COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, BUT THIS MAY BE ABLE TO PULLED COMPLETELY
IN FUTURE UPDATES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DRY SLOT.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE AND UPPER DYNAMICS
RETREATING WELL TO THE N-NE ON MONDAY, THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD
END UP A DRY ONE. AGAIN, HAVE LEFT THE LOW CHCS IN TO BLEND WITH
ADJACENT AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MODEL BLEND FORECAST WAS
NEEDED FOR THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, A SIGNIFICANT
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FOR THANKSGIVING IT WOULD APPEAR.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR NOW...AS
A REINFORCING COLD LOCATED ACROSS MID/ERN TN GRADUALLY MAKES IT`S WAY
WAY SWD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER...EMBEDDED WITHIN A WSWLY FLOW
REGIME...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY LATER
TODAY...AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS ERN TX.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 201147
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
547 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF HAS PRODUCED
SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AS THE CONVERGENCE DECREASES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTH ALABAMA TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS INTO WEST ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
...BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY DUE TO
AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
INTO TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 850MB AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
AND 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND
60 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO THE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR OR WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL
STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR...THERE WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 12 NOON. AS
A DRY LINE APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE BEST FORCING STAYS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND FOR THIS REASON CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BKN MVFR TO VFR CIGS STRETCH WEST TO EAST FROM TCL TO ANB THIS
MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS CLOUD AXIS TODAY...WITH
SCT/3KFT AND BKN/5FKT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST
AT 6-7KTS AND DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO
ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    56  33  60  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  36  60  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  59  38  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
CALERA      57  38  62  40  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  38  62  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  36  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        61  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 201120
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO A BETTER PRES/TEMP GRADIENT
GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALOFT UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
BEGIN TO DIG LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER EASTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF IS ALSO NOTED IN THE
MID LEVELS...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING...
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST AND DAMPEN LEADING MOSTLY TO
BETTER HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TODAY WITH BETTER
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO THE ONSET OF HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY LATE IN THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE BETTER CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 60S
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE EAST AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S TO THE WEST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY AND SATURDAY]...AN UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING NORTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO REGION WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LARGE DOME OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ON FRIDAY AND A MODERATE FLOW ON
SATURDAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT INSTABILITY CONTINUES
TO BE LOW WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND WITH AN 850 MB JET INCREASING TO NEAR
50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH. IN
FACT...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES TO REACH BETWEEN 500 AND 700 M2/S2. IF INSTABILITY
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION...THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY FAST MOVING ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
HAVE A FAVORABLE CHANCE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINED WINDS. DUE TO
EXTREMELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS RESULTING IN STORMS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 45 MPH...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL
LIKELY HAPPEN VERY QUICKLY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS AND INFORMATION AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70
DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 42 AND 49 DEGREES
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 65 DEGREES...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 57 AND 64 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM. BUT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING SO FAR
NORTHWARD...SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AFTER THE PASSING OF THE FASTER MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONGER DYNAMICS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY TODAY THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRI
THROUGH SAT REACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY EARLY SAT. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING. SEAS UP TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW SAT INTO SUN. A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MON THROUGH TUE. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  45  68  49  67 /  00  00  00  10  50
PENSACOLA   65  46  67  51  67 /  00  00  00  20  40
DESTIN      63  47  67  51  67 /  00  00  00  20  40
EVERGREEN   64  36  66  42  67 /  00  00  00  20  30
WAYNESBORO  64  40  68  42  67 /  00  00  00  10  30
CAMDEN      64  35  66  42  66 /  00  00  00  20  20
CRESTVIEW   66  34  67  44  68 /  00  00  00  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 201120
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO A BETTER PRES/TEMP GRADIENT
GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALOFT UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
BEGIN TO DIG LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER EASTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF IS ALSO NOTED IN THE
MID LEVELS...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING...
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST AND DAMPEN LEADING MOSTLY TO
BETTER HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TODAY WITH BETTER
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO THE ONSET OF HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY LATE IN THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE BETTER CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 60S
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE EAST AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S TO THE WEST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY AND SATURDAY]...AN UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING NORTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO REGION WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LARGE DOME OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ON FRIDAY AND A MODERATE FLOW ON
SATURDAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT INSTABILITY CONTINUES
TO BE LOW WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND WITH AN 850 MB JET INCREASING TO NEAR
50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH. IN
FACT...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES TO REACH BETWEEN 500 AND 700 M2/S2. IF INSTABILITY
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION...THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY FAST MOVING ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
HAVE A FAVORABLE CHANCE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINED WINDS. DUE TO
EXTREMELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS RESULTING IN STORMS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 45 MPH...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL
LIKELY HAPPEN VERY QUICKLY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS AND INFORMATION AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70
DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 42 AND 49 DEGREES
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 65 DEGREES...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 57 AND 64 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM. BUT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING SO FAR
NORTHWARD...SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AFTER THE PASSING OF THE FASTER MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONGER DYNAMICS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY TODAY THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRI
THROUGH SAT REACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY EARLY SAT. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING. SEAS UP TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW SAT INTO SUN. A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MON THROUGH TUE. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  45  68  49  67 /  00  00  00  10  50
PENSACOLA   65  46  67  51  67 /  00  00  00  20  40
DESTIN      63  47  67  51  67 /  00  00  00  20  40
EVERGREEN   64  36  66  42  67 /  00  00  00  20  30
WAYNESBORO  64  40  68  42  67 /  00  00  00  10  30
CAMDEN      64  35  66  42  66 /  00  00  00  20  20
CRESTVIEW   66  34  67  44  68 /  00  00  00  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 200943
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
343 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF HAS PRODUCED
SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AS THE CONVERGENCE DECREASES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTH ALABAMA TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS INTO WEST ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
...BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY DUE TO
AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
INTO TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 850MB AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
AND 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND
60 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO THE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR OR WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL
STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR...THERE WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 12 NOON. AS
A DRY LINE APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE BEST FORCING STAYS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND FOR THIS REASON CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CHANGES THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE THE INCREASE TIMING OF 050 CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AND REMOVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ADDED THESE CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS RELAXED ON THE IDEA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER MVFR CEILINGS. DID KEEP SCT MENTION IN
FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY LOWER. ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z AND HAVE
KEPT THESE CEILINGS ALSO AROUND 050 AT THIS TIME.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    56  33  60  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  36  60  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  59  38  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
CALERA      57  38  62  40  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  38  62  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  36  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        61  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 200943
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
343 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF HAS PRODUCED
SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AS THE CONVERGENCE DECREASES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTH ALABAMA TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS INTO WEST ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
...BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY DUE TO
AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
INTO TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 850MB AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
AND 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND
60 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO THE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR OR WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL
STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR...THERE WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 12 NOON. AS
A DRY LINE APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE BEST FORCING STAYS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND FOR THIS REASON CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CHANGES THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE THE INCREASE TIMING OF 050 CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AND REMOVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ADDED THESE CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS RELAXED ON THE IDEA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER MVFR CEILINGS. DID KEEP SCT MENTION IN
FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY LOWER. ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z AND HAVE
KEPT THESE CEILINGS ALSO AROUND 050 AT THIS TIME.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    56  33  60  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  36  60  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  59  38  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
CALERA      57  38  62  40  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  38  62  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  36  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        61  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 200943
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
343 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF HAS PRODUCED
SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AS THE CONVERGENCE DECREASES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTH ALABAMA TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS INTO WEST ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
...BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY DUE TO
AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
INTO TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 850MB AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
AND 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND
60 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO THE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR OR WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL
STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR...THERE WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 12 NOON. AS
A DRY LINE APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE BEST FORCING STAYS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND FOR THIS REASON CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CHANGES THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE THE INCREASE TIMING OF 050 CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AND REMOVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ADDED THESE CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS RELAXED ON THE IDEA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER MVFR CEILINGS. DID KEEP SCT MENTION IN
FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY LOWER. ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z AND HAVE
KEPT THESE CEILINGS ALSO AROUND 050 AT THIS TIME.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    56  33  60  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  36  60  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  59  38  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
CALERA      57  38  62  40  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  38  62  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  36  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        61  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 200943
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
343 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF HAS PRODUCED
SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AS THE CONVERGENCE DECREASES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTH ALABAMA TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS INTO WEST ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
...BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY DUE TO
AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
INTO TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 850MB AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
AND 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND
60 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO THE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR OR WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL
STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR...THERE WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 12 NOON. AS
A DRY LINE APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE BEST FORCING STAYS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND FOR THIS REASON CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CHANGES THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE THE INCREASE TIMING OF 050 CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AND REMOVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ADDED THESE CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS RELAXED ON THE IDEA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER MVFR CEILINGS. DID KEEP SCT MENTION IN
FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY LOWER. ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z AND HAVE
KEPT THESE CEILINGS ALSO AROUND 050 AT THIS TIME.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    56  33  60  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  36  60  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  59  38  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
CALERA      57  38  62  40  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  38  62  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  36  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        61  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 200943
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
343 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF HAS PRODUCED
SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AS THE CONVERGENCE DECREASES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTH ALABAMA TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS INTO WEST ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
...BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY DUE TO
AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
INTO TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 850MB AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
AND 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND
60 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO THE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR OR WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL
STAY ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR...THERE WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 12 NOON. AS
A DRY LINE APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE BEST FORCING STAYS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND FOR THIS REASON CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CHANGES THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE THE INCREASE TIMING OF 050 CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AND REMOVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ADDED THESE CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS RELAXED ON THE IDEA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER MVFR CEILINGS. DID KEEP SCT MENTION IN
FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY LOWER. ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z AND HAVE
KEPT THESE CEILINGS ALSO AROUND 050 AT THIS TIME.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    56  33  60  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  36  60  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  59  38  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
CALERA      57  38  62  40  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  38  62  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  36  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        61  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 200815
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
215 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BRISK WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WAS SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THE
TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO ERN KY
THRU MIDDLE TN AND AR. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND W-SWLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAS GENERATED A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS ERN TN INTO AL AND MS.
SWLY SFC FLOW HAS PICKED UP AS WELL AND HELPED TO PUSH TEMPS UPWARD
INTO THE L-M40S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS HAD
DIPPED INTO THE 20S WED EVENING BUT ARE CREEPING BACK INTO THE 30S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SWWD THRU OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A COLD AND DRY NELY FETCH DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH THE U40S-L50S THIS AFTN, BUT THEN DROP OFF INTO THE
U20-L30S TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW, WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING RAPIDLY IN THE 8-7H LAYERS THAT WILL
LIKELY GENERATE MID LEVEL CIGS TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS MAY COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION IN THESE LOCATIONS,
SO THERE MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTMENTS LATER TODAY ON FORECAST MINS
TONIGHT.

NO LARGE CHANGES IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE WERE NEEDED. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS THIS
WEEKEND IN TX TRACKING NE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS FORECASTS BOMBOGENESIS AND THE ECMWF IS ONLY A FEW MB BEHIND ON
THE 24H PRESSURE DROP. THIS WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE A STRONG SLY LLJ
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO DURING THIS PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE COOL
SECTOR (NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT) SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS PRONOUNCED, SO EVEN SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY INDUCE
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SFC. THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO BE 70-75KT JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF AT 2500-3000 FT AGL, SO WE`LL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY. FORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO FCST SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
MORNING (09-12Z IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND 12-15Z OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA). WITH 1KM SRH VALUES OVER 700 M2/S2, WE`LL STILL HAVE TO BE
COGNIZANT OF QUICK MESO-VORTEX DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IN OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NERN AL. A VERY STRONG DRY PUNCH SHOULD MAKE
FOR A QUICK EXIT OF PRECIP LATE SUNDAY MORNING, LEAVING A DRY
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LEFT A SCHC OF -SHRA SUNDAY NIGHT PER COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, BUT THIS MAY BE ABLE TO PULLED COMPLETELY
IN FUTURE UPDATES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DRY SLOT.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE AND UPPER DYNAMICS
RETREATING WELL TO THE N-NE ON MONDAY, THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD
END UP A DRY ONE. AGAIN, HAVE LEFT THE LOW CHCS IN TO BLEND WITH
ADJACENT AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MODEL BLEND FORECAST WAS
NEEDED FOR THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, A SIGNIFICANT
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FOR THANKSGIVING IT WOULD APPEAR.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1132 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH BKN TO OVC SKIES AOA 6KFT ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE. BKN TO OVC SKIES AOA 6KFT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE BECOMING SCT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN TRANSITION FROM NW TO NE BY 03Z BUT REMAIN
UNDER 10 KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  32  54  39 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        51  33  56  41 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      52  32  55  39 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  48  29  52  38 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   51  30  53  37 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    53  31  53  35 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 200815
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
215 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BRISK WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WAS SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THE
TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO ERN KY
THRU MIDDLE TN AND AR. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND W-SWLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAS GENERATED A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS ERN TN INTO AL AND MS.
SWLY SFC FLOW HAS PICKED UP AS WELL AND HELPED TO PUSH TEMPS UPWARD
INTO THE L-M40S AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS HAD
DIPPED INTO THE 20S WED EVENING BUT ARE CREEPING BACK INTO THE 30S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SWWD THRU OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A COLD AND DRY NELY FETCH DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH THE U40S-L50S THIS AFTN, BUT THEN DROP OFF INTO THE
U20-L30S TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW, WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING RAPIDLY IN THE 8-7H LAYERS THAT WILL
LIKELY GENERATE MID LEVEL CIGS TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS MAY COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION IN THESE LOCATIONS,
SO THERE MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTMENTS LATER TODAY ON FORECAST MINS
TONIGHT.

NO LARGE CHANGES IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE WERE NEEDED. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS THIS
WEEKEND IN TX TRACKING NE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS FORECASTS BOMBOGENESIS AND THE ECMWF IS ONLY A FEW MB BEHIND ON
THE 24H PRESSURE DROP. THIS WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE A STRONG SLY LLJ
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO DURING THIS PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE COOL
SECTOR (NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT) SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS PRONOUNCED, SO EVEN SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY INDUCE
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SFC. THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO BE 70-75KT JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF AT 2500-3000 FT AGL, SO WE`LL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY. FORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO FCST SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
MORNING (09-12Z IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND 12-15Z OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA). WITH 1KM SRH VALUES OVER 700 M2/S2, WE`LL STILL HAVE TO BE
COGNIZANT OF QUICK MESO-VORTEX DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IN OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NERN AL. A VERY STRONG DRY PUNCH SHOULD MAKE
FOR A QUICK EXIT OF PRECIP LATE SUNDAY MORNING, LEAVING A DRY
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LEFT A SCHC OF -SHRA SUNDAY NIGHT PER COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, BUT THIS MAY BE ABLE TO PULLED COMPLETELY
IN FUTURE UPDATES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DRY SLOT.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE AND UPPER DYNAMICS
RETREATING WELL TO THE N-NE ON MONDAY, THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD
END UP A DRY ONE. AGAIN, HAVE LEFT THE LOW CHCS IN TO BLEND WITH
ADJACENT AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MODEL BLEND FORECAST WAS
NEEDED FOR THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, A SIGNIFICANT
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FOR THANKSGIVING IT WOULD APPEAR.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1132 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH BKN TO OVC SKIES AOA 6KFT ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE. BKN TO OVC SKIES AOA 6KFT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE BECOMING SCT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN TRANSITION FROM NW TO NE BY 03Z BUT REMAIN
UNDER 10 KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  32  54  39 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        51  33  56  41 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      52  32  55  39 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  48  29  52  38 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   51  30  53  37 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    53  31  53  35 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 200532
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1132 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE BOARD...ESPECIALLY EAST. THE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE TRICKY PART COMES LATER
TONIGHT WHEN SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK UP ESPECIALLY WEST.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN
THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...SOME VARIABILITY AND UPS AND DOWNS ARE
POSSIBLE. INSTALLED LOWS A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CHANGES THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE THE INCREASE TIMING OF 050 CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AND REMOVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ADDED THESE CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS RELAXED ON THE IDEA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER MVFR CEILINGS. DID KEEP SCT MENTION IN
FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY LOWER. ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z AND HAVE
KEPT THESE CEILINGS ALSO AROUND 050 AT THIS TIME.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  54  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    26  55  36  59  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  30  56  39  60  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  31  58  43  63  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      30  57  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  58  39  62  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  61  37  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        28  61  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 200532
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1132 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE BOARD...ESPECIALLY EAST. THE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE TRICKY PART COMES LATER
TONIGHT WHEN SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK UP ESPECIALLY WEST.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN
THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...SOME VARIABILITY AND UPS AND DOWNS ARE
POSSIBLE. INSTALLED LOWS A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CHANGES THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE THE INCREASE TIMING OF 050 CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AND REMOVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ADDED THESE CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS RELAXED ON THE IDEA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER MVFR CEILINGS. DID KEEP SCT MENTION IN
FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY LOWER. ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z AND HAVE
KEPT THESE CEILINGS ALSO AROUND 050 AT THIS TIME.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  54  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    26  55  36  59  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  30  56  39  60  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  31  58  43  63  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      30  57  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  58  39  62  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  61  37  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        28  61  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 200532
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1132 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE BOARD...ESPECIALLY EAST. THE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE TRICKY PART COMES LATER
TONIGHT WHEN SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK UP ESPECIALLY WEST.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN
THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...SOME VARIABILITY AND UPS AND DOWNS ARE
POSSIBLE. INSTALLED LOWS A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CHANGES THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE THE INCREASE TIMING OF 050 CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AND REMOVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ADDED THESE CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS RELAXED ON THE IDEA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER MVFR CEILINGS. DID KEEP SCT MENTION IN
FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY LOWER. ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z AND HAVE
KEPT THESE CEILINGS ALSO AROUND 050 AT THIS TIME.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  54  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    26  55  36  59  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  30  56  39  60  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  31  58  43  63  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      30  57  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  58  39  62  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  61  37  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        28  61  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 200532
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1132 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE BOARD...ESPECIALLY EAST. THE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE TRICKY PART COMES LATER
TONIGHT WHEN SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK UP ESPECIALLY WEST.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN
THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...SOME VARIABILITY AND UPS AND DOWNS ARE
POSSIBLE. INSTALLED LOWS A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CHANGES THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE THE INCREASE TIMING OF 050 CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AND REMOVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ADDED THESE CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS RELAXED ON THE IDEA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER MVFR CEILINGS. DID KEEP SCT MENTION IN
FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY LOWER. ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z AND HAVE
KEPT THESE CEILINGS ALSO AROUND 050 AT THIS TIME.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  54  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    26  55  36  59  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  30  56  39  60  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  31  58  43  63  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      30  57  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  58  39  62  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  61  37  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        28  61  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 200532
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1132 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 941 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
A LIGHT BREEZE THIS EVENING HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER MIXING OF THE AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE AND KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS RAPIDLY AS
THEY DID TUESDAY EVENING. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE
ONLY OUTLIER IS THE FORT PAYNE AREA AND MANY OF THE EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM ALL EVENING AND ALLOWED FOR
COOL AIR DRAINAGE INTO THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S THIS EVENING. A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
AROUND 6000 FEET IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THESE ARE FORMING OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH BKN TO OVC SKIES AOA 6KFT ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE. BKN TO OVC SKIES AOA 6KFT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE BECOMING SCT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN TRANSITION FROM NW TO NE BY 03Z BUT REMAIN
UNDER 10 KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 200532
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1132 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 941 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
A LIGHT BREEZE THIS EVENING HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER MIXING OF THE AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE AND KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS RAPIDLY AS
THEY DID TUESDAY EVENING. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE
ONLY OUTLIER IS THE FORT PAYNE AREA AND MANY OF THE EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM ALL EVENING AND ALLOWED FOR
COOL AIR DRAINAGE INTO THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S THIS EVENING. A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
AROUND 6000 FEET IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THESE ARE FORMING OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH BKN TO OVC SKIES AOA 6KFT ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE. BKN TO OVC SKIES AOA 6KFT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE BECOMING SCT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN TRANSITION FROM NW TO NE BY 03Z BUT REMAIN
UNDER 10 KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 200532
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1132 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 941 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
A LIGHT BREEZE THIS EVENING HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER MIXING OF THE AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE AND KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS RAPIDLY AS
THEY DID TUESDAY EVENING. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE
ONLY OUTLIER IS THE FORT PAYNE AREA AND MANY OF THE EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM ALL EVENING AND ALLOWED FOR
COOL AIR DRAINAGE INTO THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S THIS EVENING. A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
AROUND 6000 FEET IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THESE ARE FORMING OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH BKN TO OVC SKIES AOA 6KFT ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE. BKN TO OVC SKIES AOA 6KFT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE BECOMING SCT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN TRANSITION FROM NW TO NE BY 03Z BUT REMAIN
UNDER 10 KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 200532
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1132 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 941 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
A LIGHT BREEZE THIS EVENING HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER MIXING OF THE AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE AND KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS RAPIDLY AS
THEY DID TUESDAY EVENING. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE
ONLY OUTLIER IS THE FORT PAYNE AREA AND MANY OF THE EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM ALL EVENING AND ALLOWED FOR
COOL AIR DRAINAGE INTO THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S THIS EVENING. A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
AROUND 6000 FEET IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THESE ARE FORMING OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH BKN TO OVC SKIES AOA 6KFT ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE. BKN TO OVC SKIES AOA 6KFT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE BECOMING SCT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN TRANSITION FROM NW TO NE BY 03Z BUT REMAIN
UNDER 10 KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 200527 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATED PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 200527 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATED PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 200527 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATED PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 200527 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATED PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 200447
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1047 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE BOARD...ESPECIALLY EAST. THE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE TRICKY PART COMES LATER
TONIGHT WHEN SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK UP ESPECIALLY WEST.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN
THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...SOME VARIABILITY AND UPS AND DOWNS ARE
POSSIBLE. INSTALLED LOWS A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL BE A DRY
PASSAGE. SOME CLOUDS MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WHILE OTHERS
DEVELOP FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT LAST LONG BUT COULD
BE IN THE 025-050 RANGE. ADDED MFR CEILINGS TO TCL/BHM/EET/ANB IN
THE MORNING. WINDS SWINGS AROUND TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT 7KTS OR BELOW.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  54  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    26  55  36  59  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  30  56  39  60  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  31  58  43  63  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      30  57  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  58  39  62  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  61  37  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        28  61  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 200447
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1047 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE BOARD...ESPECIALLY EAST. THE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE TRICKY PART COMES LATER
TONIGHT WHEN SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK UP ESPECIALLY WEST.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN
THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...SOME VARIABILITY AND UPS AND DOWNS ARE
POSSIBLE. INSTALLED LOWS A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL BE A DRY
PASSAGE. SOME CLOUDS MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WHILE OTHERS
DEVELOP FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT LAST LONG BUT COULD
BE IN THE 025-050 RANGE. ADDED MFR CEILINGS TO TCL/BHM/EET/ANB IN
THE MORNING. WINDS SWINGS AROUND TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT 7KTS OR BELOW.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  54  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    26  55  36  59  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  30  56  39  60  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  31  58  43  63  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      30  57  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  58  39  62  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  61  37  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        28  61  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 200402 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATED PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE FROM THE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE
MODERATION TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
INCREASE AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. /13

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SEMI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

ALL EYES WILL TURN TO A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE NE PACIFIC...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIKELY SURGE INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 55-65 KT. IT IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME THAT THE
STRONGEST DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE OVERLAPS THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
SECTOR. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY...SHOWING
MLCAPES OF 500-650 J/KG MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AN IMPRESSIVE
40-45 KT. THEREFORE...ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE
INLAND...THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN HOW FAR THE WARM SECTOR DOES MOVE INLAND.
SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(AS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT)...WILL PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM
SURGING NORTH. HOWEVER SUCH A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AS
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MOVING WELL INLAND. THESE ARE SOME OF THE
DETAILS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES. ECMWF/GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE LATEST CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHES INTO THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR LIKELY PERSISTING OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS FAIRLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE JUST
EXPERIENCE. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
SETTLING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 5 PM FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AL AND INLAND SOUTHWEST AL FOR A LONG DURATION OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS STAYING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      35  66  42  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   37  66  44  66  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      40  63  45  66  51 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   27  64  34  67  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  29  63  38  67  42 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      27  63  35  66  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   25  65  32  67  40 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 200402 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATED PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE FROM THE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE
MODERATION TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
INCREASE AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. /13

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SEMI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

ALL EYES WILL TURN TO A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE NE PACIFIC...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIKELY SURGE INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 55-65 KT. IT IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME THAT THE
STRONGEST DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE OVERLAPS THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
SECTOR. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY...SHOWING
MLCAPES OF 500-650 J/KG MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AN IMPRESSIVE
40-45 KT. THEREFORE...ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE
INLAND...THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN HOW FAR THE WARM SECTOR DOES MOVE INLAND.
SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(AS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT)...WILL PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM
SURGING NORTH. HOWEVER SUCH A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AS
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MOVING WELL INLAND. THESE ARE SOME OF THE
DETAILS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES. ECMWF/GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE LATEST CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHES INTO THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR LIKELY PERSISTING OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS FAIRLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE JUST
EXPERIENCE. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
SETTLING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 5 PM FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AL AND INLAND SOUTHWEST AL FOR A LONG DURATION OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS STAYING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      35  66  42  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   37  66  44  66  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      40  63  45  66  51 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   27  64  34  67  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  29  63  38  67  42 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      27  63  35  66  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   25  65  32  67  40 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 200402 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATED PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE FROM THE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE
MODERATION TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
INCREASE AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. /13

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SEMI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

ALL EYES WILL TURN TO A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE NE PACIFIC...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIKELY SURGE INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 55-65 KT. IT IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME THAT THE
STRONGEST DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE OVERLAPS THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
SECTOR. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY...SHOWING
MLCAPES OF 500-650 J/KG MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AN IMPRESSIVE
40-45 KT. THEREFORE...ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE
INLAND...THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN HOW FAR THE WARM SECTOR DOES MOVE INLAND.
SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(AS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT)...WILL PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM
SURGING NORTH. HOWEVER SUCH A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AS
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MOVING WELL INLAND. THESE ARE SOME OF THE
DETAILS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES. ECMWF/GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE LATEST CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHES INTO THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR LIKELY PERSISTING OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS FAIRLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE JUST
EXPERIENCE. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
SETTLING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 5 PM FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AL AND INLAND SOUTHWEST AL FOR A LONG DURATION OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS STAYING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      35  66  42  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   37  66  44  66  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      40  63  45  66  51 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   27  64  34  67  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  29  63  38  67  42 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      27  63  35  66  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   25  65  32  67  40 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 200402 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATED PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE FROM THE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE
MODERATION TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
INCREASE AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. /13

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SEMI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

ALL EYES WILL TURN TO A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE NE PACIFIC...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIKELY SURGE INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 55-65 KT. IT IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME THAT THE
STRONGEST DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE OVERLAPS THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
SECTOR. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY...SHOWING
MLCAPES OF 500-650 J/KG MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AN IMPRESSIVE
40-45 KT. THEREFORE...ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE
INLAND...THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN HOW FAR THE WARM SECTOR DOES MOVE INLAND.
SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(AS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT)...WILL PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM
SURGING NORTH. HOWEVER SUCH A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AS
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MOVING WELL INLAND. THESE ARE SOME OF THE
DETAILS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES. ECMWF/GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE LATEST CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHES INTO THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR LIKELY PERSISTING OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS FAIRLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE JUST
EXPERIENCE. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
SETTLING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 5 PM FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AL AND INLAND SOUTHWEST AL FOR A LONG DURATION OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS STAYING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      35  66  42  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   37  66  44  66  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      40  63  45  66  51 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   27  64  34  67  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  29  63  38  67  42 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      27  63  35  66  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   25  65  32  67  40 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 200402 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATED PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE FROM THE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE
MODERATION TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
INCREASE AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. /13

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SEMI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

ALL EYES WILL TURN TO A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE NE PACIFIC...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIKELY SURGE INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 55-65 KT. IT IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME THAT THE
STRONGEST DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE OVERLAPS THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
SECTOR. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY...SHOWING
MLCAPES OF 500-650 J/KG MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AN IMPRESSIVE
40-45 KT. THEREFORE...ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE
INLAND...THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN HOW FAR THE WARM SECTOR DOES MOVE INLAND.
SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(AS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT)...WILL PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM
SURGING NORTH. HOWEVER SUCH A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AS
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MOVING WELL INLAND. THESE ARE SOME OF THE
DETAILS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES. ECMWF/GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE LATEST CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHES INTO THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR LIKELY PERSISTING OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS FAIRLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE JUST
EXPERIENCE. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
SETTLING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 5 PM FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AL AND INLAND SOUTHWEST AL FOR A LONG DURATION OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS STAYING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      35  66  42  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   37  66  44  66  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      40  63  45  66  51 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   27  64  34  67  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  29  63  38  67  42 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      27  63  35  66  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   25  65  32  67  40 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 200402 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATED PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE FROM THE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE
MODERATION TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
INCREASE AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. /13

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SEMI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

ALL EYES WILL TURN TO A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE NE PACIFIC...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIKELY SURGE INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 55-65 KT. IT IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME THAT THE
STRONGEST DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE OVERLAPS THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
SECTOR. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY...SHOWING
MLCAPES OF 500-650 J/KG MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AN IMPRESSIVE
40-45 KT. THEREFORE...ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE
INLAND...THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN HOW FAR THE WARM SECTOR DOES MOVE INLAND.
SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(AS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT)...WILL PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM
SURGING NORTH. HOWEVER SUCH A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AS
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MOVING WELL INLAND. THESE ARE SOME OF THE
DETAILS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES. ECMWF/GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE LATEST CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHES INTO THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR LIKELY PERSISTING OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS FAIRLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE JUST
EXPERIENCE. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
SETTLING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 5 PM FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AL AND INLAND SOUTHWEST AL FOR A LONG DURATION OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS STAYING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      35  66  42  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   37  66  44  66  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      40  63  45  66  51 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   27  64  34  67  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  29  63  38  67  42 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      27  63  35  66  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   25  65  32  67  40 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KHUN 200341
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
941 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXPECT FOR
EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LIGHT BREEZE THIS EVENING HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER MIXING OF THE AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE AND KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS RAPIDLY AS
THEY DID TUESDAY EVENING. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE
ONLY OUTLIER IS THE FORT PAYNE AREA AND MANY OF THE EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM ALL EVENING AND ALLOWED FOR
COOL AIR DRAINAGE INTO THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S THIS EVENING. A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
AROUND 6000 FEET IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THESE ARE FORMING OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 532 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS FORMING AROUND 6KFT BY THURSDAY
MORNING BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT REMAIN
BELOW 10KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUED SPINNING ACROSS SE CANADA...CONTINUING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN LOW
OVER THE EASTERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN QUEBEC WAS BEING FORTIFIED
BY ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...AKA CLIPPER MOVING TOWARD IT FROM JUST
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH CLOUDS IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CLIPPER HAVE MADE IT SOUTHWARD OVER THIS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUED TO PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE THE SOMETIMES PLENTIFUL
HIGH CLOUDS...A SW FLOW HAS HELPED TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH READINGS SO FAR UP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD...REACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING GREATER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE AND WEAK
LIFT WILL BE PRESENT TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NW ALABAMA
DURING FRI.

DRY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE SHOULD RETURN TO THE VALLEY FOR SAT. A
SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC NEAR 42N140W WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...AND INDUCE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEG TILT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING SUN. AN ENHANCED MOISTURE INFLOW EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING TO MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH HIGH HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES. BUT INSTABILITIES
WERE NIL. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND STILL STRONG
LIFT...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN WITH PREDOMINATE RAINS.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS. UNLIKE THE LAST RAIN EVENT HERE...THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND DURING SUN MORNING WILL BE A
RATHER BRIEF AFFAIR. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
ASSOCIATED HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING SUN/MON...WITH
RAIN CHANCES LOWERING. HAVE TRIMMED RAIN CHANCES TO A CHANCE FOR
SUN EVENING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG SYSTEM...STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUN. A
RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MON...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
COLDER...BUT NOT LIKE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE
LOOK AHEAD TO THE DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING IS DRY WITH SLIGHT
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 200341
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
941 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXPECT FOR
EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LIGHT BREEZE THIS EVENING HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER MIXING OF THE AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE AND KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS RAPIDLY AS
THEY DID TUESDAY EVENING. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE
ONLY OUTLIER IS THE FORT PAYNE AREA AND MANY OF THE EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM ALL EVENING AND ALLOWED FOR
COOL AIR DRAINAGE INTO THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S THIS EVENING. A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
AROUND 6000 FEET IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THESE ARE FORMING OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 532 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS FORMING AROUND 6KFT BY THURSDAY
MORNING BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT REMAIN
BELOW 10KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUED SPINNING ACROSS SE CANADA...CONTINUING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN LOW
OVER THE EASTERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN QUEBEC WAS BEING FORTIFIED
BY ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...AKA CLIPPER MOVING TOWARD IT FROM JUST
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH CLOUDS IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CLIPPER HAVE MADE IT SOUTHWARD OVER THIS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUED TO PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE THE SOMETIMES PLENTIFUL
HIGH CLOUDS...A SW FLOW HAS HELPED TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH READINGS SO FAR UP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD...REACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING GREATER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE AND WEAK
LIFT WILL BE PRESENT TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NW ALABAMA
DURING FRI.

DRY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE SHOULD RETURN TO THE VALLEY FOR SAT. A
SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC NEAR 42N140W WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...AND INDUCE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEG TILT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING SUN. AN ENHANCED MOISTURE INFLOW EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING TO MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH HIGH HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES. BUT INSTABILITIES
WERE NIL. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND STILL STRONG
LIFT...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN WITH PREDOMINATE RAINS.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS. UNLIKE THE LAST RAIN EVENT HERE...THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND DURING SUN MORNING WILL BE A
RATHER BRIEF AFFAIR. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
ASSOCIATED HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING SUN/MON...WITH
RAIN CHANCES LOWERING. HAVE TRIMMED RAIN CHANCES TO A CHANCE FOR
SUN EVENING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG SYSTEM...STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUN. A
RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MON...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
COLDER...BUT NOT LIKE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE
LOOK AHEAD TO THE DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING IS DRY WITH SLIGHT
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 200037
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE ZONAL...A MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES HAS COMMENCED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AMPLE SUNSHINE
HELPED THE MERCURY CLIMB INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE UPCOMING 7 DAYS REMAINS THE WEEKEND PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES BEFORE
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WILL KEEP VERY HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. NOTHING HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS ON MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR PARAMETERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW
CONFIDENCE MENTION OF SEVERE/TORNADOES IN THE WHO. WILL CONTINUE
TO POINT OUT THAT BOTH U OF WISCONSIN PICS ANALOGS AND CPS MARS
ANALOGS BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS IS A SYSTEM WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. THE KEY INGREDIENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS OBVIOUSLY
INSTABILITY -- WHICH ISN`T UNCOMMON AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE
MAY ONLY BE A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW WHERE DEW POINTS COME UP HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. BUT WITH OTHER
INGREDIENTS EXPECTED TO ESSENTIALLY ALREADY BE IN PLACE...THAT
LITTLE BIT OF ADDED INSTABILITY (HOWEVER BRIEF) COULD BE THE
TRIGGER THAT CAUSES STORMS TO ORGANIZE TO THE POINT OF BEING
SEVERE. ITS CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAR CUT SITUATION...BUT ONE THAT
NEEDS TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z FAT DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL BE A DRY
PASSAGE. SOME CLOUDS MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WHILE OTHERS
DEVELOP FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT LAST LONG BUT COULD
BE IN THE 025-050 RANGE. ADDED MFR CEILINGS TO TCL/BHM/EET/ANB IN
THE MORNING. WINDS SWINGS AROUND TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT 7KTS OR BELOW.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  54  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    30  55  36  59  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  33  56  39  60  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  32  58  43  63  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      33  57  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      32  58  39  62  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  61  37  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  61  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 200037
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE ZONAL...A MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES HAS COMMENCED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AMPLE SUNSHINE
HELPED THE MERCURY CLIMB INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE UPCOMING 7 DAYS REMAINS THE WEEKEND PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES BEFORE
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WILL KEEP VERY HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. NOTHING HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS ON MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR PARAMETERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW
CONFIDENCE MENTION OF SEVERE/TORNADOES IN THE WHO. WILL CONTINUE
TO POINT OUT THAT BOTH U OF WISCONSIN PICS ANALOGS AND CPS MARS
ANALOGS BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS IS A SYSTEM WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. THE KEY INGREDIENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS OBVIOUSLY
INSTABILITY -- WHICH ISN`T UNCOMMON AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE
MAY ONLY BE A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW WHERE DEW POINTS COME UP HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. BUT WITH OTHER
INGREDIENTS EXPECTED TO ESSENTIALLY ALREADY BE IN PLACE...THAT
LITTLE BIT OF ADDED INSTABILITY (HOWEVER BRIEF) COULD BE THE
TRIGGER THAT CAUSES STORMS TO ORGANIZE TO THE POINT OF BEING
SEVERE. ITS CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAR CUT SITUATION...BUT ONE THAT
NEEDS TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z FAT DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL BE A DRY
PASSAGE. SOME CLOUDS MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WHILE OTHERS
DEVELOP FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT LAST LONG BUT COULD
BE IN THE 025-050 RANGE. ADDED MFR CEILINGS TO TCL/BHM/EET/ANB IN
THE MORNING. WINDS SWINGS AROUND TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT 7KTS OR BELOW.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  54  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    30  55  36  59  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  33  56  39  60  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  32  58  43  63  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      33  57  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      32  58  39  62  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  61  37  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  61  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 192332
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
532 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUED SPINNING ACROSS SE CANADA...CONTINUING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN LOW
OVER THE EASTERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN QUEBEC WAS BEING FORTIFIED
BY ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...AKA CLIPPER MOVING TOWARD IT FROM JUST
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH CLOUDS IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CLIPPER HAVE MADE IT SOUTHWARD OVER THIS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUED TO PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE THE SOMETIMES PLENTIFUL
HIGH CLOUDS...A SW FLOW HAS HELPED TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH READINGS SO FAR UP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD...REACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING GREATER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE AND WEAK
LIFT WILL BE PRESENT TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NW ALABAMA
DURING FRI.

DRY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE SHOULD RETURN TO THE VALLEY FOR SAT. A
SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC NEAR 42N140W WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...AND INDUCE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEG TILT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING SUN. AN ENHANCED MOISTURE INFLOW EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING TO MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH HIGH HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES. BUT INSTABILITIES
WERE NIL. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND STILL STRONG
LIFT...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN WITH PREDOMINATE RAINS.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS. UNLIKE THE LAST RAIN EVENT HERE...THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND DURING SUN MORNING WILL BE A
RATHER BRIEF AFFAIR. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
ASSOCIATED HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING SUN/MON...WITH
RAIN CHANCES LOWERING. HAVE TRIMMED RAIN CHANCES TO A CHANCE FOR
SUN EVENING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG SYSTEM...STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUN. A
RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MON...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
COLDER...BUT NOT LIKE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE
LOOK AHEAD TO THE DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING IS DRY WITH SLIGHT
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS FORMING AROUND 6KFT BY THURSDAY
MORNING BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT REMAIN
BELOW 10KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 192332
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
532 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUED SPINNING ACROSS SE CANADA...CONTINUING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN LOW
OVER THE EASTERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN QUEBEC WAS BEING FORTIFIED
BY ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...AKA CLIPPER MOVING TOWARD IT FROM JUST
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH CLOUDS IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CLIPPER HAVE MADE IT SOUTHWARD OVER THIS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUED TO PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE THE SOMETIMES PLENTIFUL
HIGH CLOUDS...A SW FLOW HAS HELPED TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH READINGS SO FAR UP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD...REACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING GREATER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE AND WEAK
LIFT WILL BE PRESENT TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NW ALABAMA
DURING FRI.

DRY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE SHOULD RETURN TO THE VALLEY FOR SAT. A
SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC NEAR 42N140W WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...AND INDUCE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEG TILT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING SUN. AN ENHANCED MOISTURE INFLOW EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING TO MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH HIGH HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES. BUT INSTABILITIES
WERE NIL. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND STILL STRONG
LIFT...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN WITH PREDOMINATE RAINS.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS. UNLIKE THE LAST RAIN EVENT HERE...THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND DURING SUN MORNING WILL BE A
RATHER BRIEF AFFAIR. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
ASSOCIATED HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING SUN/MON...WITH
RAIN CHANCES LOWERING. HAVE TRIMMED RAIN CHANCES TO A CHANCE FOR
SUN EVENING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG SYSTEM...STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUN. A
RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MON...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
COLDER...BUT NOT LIKE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE
LOOK AHEAD TO THE DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING IS DRY WITH SLIGHT
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS FORMING AROUND 6KFT BY THURSDAY
MORNING BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT REMAIN
BELOW 10KTS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 192319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE FROM THE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE
MODERATION TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
INCREASE AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. /13

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SEMI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

ALL EYES WILL TURN TO A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE NE PACIFIC...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIKELY SURGE INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 55-65 KT. IT IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME THAT THE
STRONGEST DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE OVERLAPS THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
SECTOR. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY...SHOWING
MLCAPES OF 500-650 J/KG MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AN IMPRESSIVE
40-45 KT. THEREFORE...ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE
INLAND...THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN HOW FAR THE WARM SECTOR DOES MOVE INLAND.
SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(AS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT)...WILL PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM
SURGING NORTH. HOWEVER SUCH A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AS
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MOVING WELL INLAND. THESE ARE SOME OF THE
DETAILS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES. ECMWF/GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE LATEST CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHES INTO THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR LIKELY PERSISTING OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS FAIRLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE JUST
EXPERIENCE. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
SETTLING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 5 PM FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AL AND INLAND SOUTHWEST AL FOR A LONG DURATION OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS STAYING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      35  66  42  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   37  66  44  66  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      40  63  45  66  51 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   27  64  34  67  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  29  63  38  67  42 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      27  63  35  66  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   25  65  32  67  40 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 192319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE FROM THE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE
MODERATION TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
INCREASE AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. /13

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SEMI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

ALL EYES WILL TURN TO A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE NE PACIFIC...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIKELY SURGE INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 55-65 KT. IT IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME THAT THE
STRONGEST DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE OVERLAPS THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
SECTOR. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY...SHOWING
MLCAPES OF 500-650 J/KG MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AN IMPRESSIVE
40-45 KT. THEREFORE...ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE
INLAND...THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN HOW FAR THE WARM SECTOR DOES MOVE INLAND.
SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(AS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT)...WILL PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM
SURGING NORTH. HOWEVER SUCH A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AS
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MOVING WELL INLAND. THESE ARE SOME OF THE
DETAILS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES. ECMWF/GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE LATEST CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHES INTO THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR LIKELY PERSISTING OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS FAIRLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE JUST
EXPERIENCE. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
SETTLING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 5 PM FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AL AND INLAND SOUTHWEST AL FOR A LONG DURATION OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS STAYING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      35  66  42  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   37  66  44  66  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      40  63  45  66  51 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   27  64  34  67  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  29  63  38  67  42 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      27  63  35  66  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   25  65  32  67  40 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 192319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE FROM THE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE
MODERATION TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
INCREASE AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. /13

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SEMI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

ALL EYES WILL TURN TO A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE NE PACIFIC...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIKELY SURGE INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 55-65 KT. IT IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME THAT THE
STRONGEST DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE OVERLAPS THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
SECTOR. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY...SHOWING
MLCAPES OF 500-650 J/KG MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AN IMPRESSIVE
40-45 KT. THEREFORE...ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE
INLAND...THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN HOW FAR THE WARM SECTOR DOES MOVE INLAND.
SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(AS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT)...WILL PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM
SURGING NORTH. HOWEVER SUCH A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AS
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MOVING WELL INLAND. THESE ARE SOME OF THE
DETAILS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES. ECMWF/GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE LATEST CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHES INTO THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR LIKELY PERSISTING OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS FAIRLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE JUST
EXPERIENCE. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
SETTLING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 5 PM FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AL AND INLAND SOUTHWEST AL FOR A LONG DURATION OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS STAYING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      35  66  42  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   37  66  44  66  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      40  63  45  66  51 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   27  64  34  67  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  29  63  38  67  42 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      27  63  35  66  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   25  65  32  67  40 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 192319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE FROM THE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE
MODERATION TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
INCREASE AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. /13

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SEMI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

ALL EYES WILL TURN TO A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE NE PACIFIC...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIKELY SURGE INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 55-65 KT. IT IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME THAT THE
STRONGEST DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE OVERLAPS THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
SECTOR. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY...SHOWING
MLCAPES OF 500-650 J/KG MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AN IMPRESSIVE
40-45 KT. THEREFORE...ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE
INLAND...THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN HOW FAR THE WARM SECTOR DOES MOVE INLAND.
SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(AS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT)...WILL PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM
SURGING NORTH. HOWEVER SUCH A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AS
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MOVING WELL INLAND. THESE ARE SOME OF THE
DETAILS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES. ECMWF/GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE LATEST CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHES INTO THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR LIKELY PERSISTING OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS FAIRLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE JUST
EXPERIENCE. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
SETTLING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 5 PM FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AL AND INLAND SOUTHWEST AL FOR A LONG DURATION OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS STAYING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      35  66  42  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   37  66  44  66  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      40  63  45  66  51 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   27  64  34  67  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  29  63  38  67  42 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      27  63  35  66  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   25  65  32  67  40 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 192127
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
327 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE FROM THE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE
MODERATION TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
INCREASE AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. /13

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SEMI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

ALL EYES WILL TURN TO A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE NE PACIFIC...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND BECOME
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIKELY SURGE INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 55-65 KT. IT IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME THAT THE
STRONGEST DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE OVERLAPS THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
SECTOR. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY...SHOWING
MLCAPES OF 500-650 J/KG MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...0-1KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AN IMPRESSIVE
40-45 KT. THEREFORE...ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE
INLAND...THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN HOW FAR THE WARM SECTOR DOES MOVE INLAND.
SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(AS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT)...WILL PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM
SURGING NORTH. HOWEVER SUCH A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AS
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MOVING WELL INLAND. THESE ARE SOME OF THE
DETAILS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES. ECMWF/GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE LATEST CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHES INTO THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR LIKELY PERSISTING OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS FAIRLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE JUST
EXPERIENCE. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
SETTLING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 5 PM FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AL AND INLAND SOUTHWEST AL FOR A LONG DURATION OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS STAYING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      35  66  42  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   37  66  44  66  49 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      40  63  45  66  51 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   27  64  34  67  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  29  63  38  67  42 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      27  63  35  66  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   25  65  32  67  40 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 192108
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE ZONAL...A MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES HAS COMMENCED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AMPLE SUNSHINE
HELPED THE MERCURY CLIMB INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE UPCOMING 7 DAYS REMAINS THE WEEKEND PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES BEFORE
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WILL KEEP VERY HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. NOTHING HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS ON MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR PARAMETERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW
CONFIDENCE MENTION OF SEVERE/TORNADOES IN THE HWO. WILL CONTINUE
TO POINT OUT THAT BOTH U OF WISCONSIN CIPS ANALOGS AND SPC MARS
ANALOGS BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS IS A SYSTEM WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. THE KEY INGREDIENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS OBVIOUSLY
INSTABILITY -- WHICH ISN`T UNCOMMON AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE
MAY ONLY BE A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW WHERE DEWPOINTS COME UP HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. BUT WITH OTHER
INGREDIENTS EXPECTED TO ESSENTIALLY ALREADY BE IN PLACE...THAT
LITTLE BIT OF ADDED INSTABILITY (HOWEVER BRIEF) COULD BE THE
TRIGGER THAT CAUSES STORMS TO ORGANIZE TO THE POINT OF BEING
SEVERE. ITS CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAR CUT SITUATION...BUT ONE THAT
NEEDS TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO TURN TO MORE WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOME.

08/MK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  54  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    30  55  36  59  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  33  56  39  60  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  32  58  43  63  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      33  57  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      32  58  39  62  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  61  37  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  61  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BULLOCK...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...
MONTGOMERY...PIKE...RUSSELL.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...CHAMBERS...CHILTON...CLAY...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...GREENE...HALE...MARENGO...PERRY...
RANDOLPH...SUMTER...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 192108
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE ZONAL...A MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES HAS COMMENCED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AMPLE SUNSHINE
HELPED THE MERCURY CLIMB INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE UPCOMING 7 DAYS REMAINS THE WEEKEND PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES BEFORE
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WILL KEEP VERY HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. NOTHING HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS ON MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR PARAMETERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW
CONFIDENCE MENTION OF SEVERE/TORNADOES IN THE HWO. WILL CONTINUE
TO POINT OUT THAT BOTH U OF WISCONSIN CIPS ANALOGS AND SPC MARS
ANALOGS BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS IS A SYSTEM WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. THE KEY INGREDIENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS OBVIOUSLY
INSTABILITY -- WHICH ISN`T UNCOMMON AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE
MAY ONLY BE A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW WHERE DEWPOINTS COME UP HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. BUT WITH OTHER
INGREDIENTS EXPECTED TO ESSENTIALLY ALREADY BE IN PLACE...THAT
LITTLE BIT OF ADDED INSTABILITY (HOWEVER BRIEF) COULD BE THE
TRIGGER THAT CAUSES STORMS TO ORGANIZE TO THE POINT OF BEING
SEVERE. ITS CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAR CUT SITUATION...BUT ONE THAT
NEEDS TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO TURN TO MORE WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOME.

08/MK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     28  54  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    30  55  36  59  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  33  56  39  60  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  32  58  43  63  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      33  57  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      32  58  39  62  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  61  37  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        30  61  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BULLOCK...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...
MONTGOMERY...PIKE...RUSSELL.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...CHAMBERS...CHILTON...CLAY...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...GREENE...HALE...MARENGO...PERRY...
RANDOLPH...SUMTER...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 192050
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
250 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUED SPINNING ACROSS SE CANADA...CONTINUING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN LOW
OVER THE EASTERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN QUEBEC WAS BEING FORTIFIED
BY ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...AKA CLIPPER MOVING TOWARD IT FROM JUST
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH CLOUDS IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CLIPPER HAVE MADE IT SOUTHWARD OVER THIS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUED TO PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE THE SOMETIMES PLENTIFUL
HIGH CLOUDS...A SW FLOW HAS HELPED TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH READINGS SO FAR UP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD...REACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING GREATER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE AND WEAK
LIFT WILL BE PRESENT TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NW ALABAMA
DURING FRI.

DRY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE SHOULD RETURN TO THE VALLEY FOR SAT. A
SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC NEAR 42N140W WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...AND INDUCE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEG TILT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING SUN. AN ENHANCED MOISTURE INFLOW EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING TO MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH HIGH HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES. BUT INSTABILITIES
WERE NIL. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND STILL STRONG
LIFT...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN WITH PREDOMINATE RAINS.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS. UNLIKE THE LAST RAIN EVENT HERE...THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND DURING SUN MORNING WILL BE A
RATHER BRIEF AFFAIR. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
ASSOCIATED HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING SUN/MON...WITH
RAIN CHANCES LOWERING. HAVE TRIMMED RAIN CHANCES TO A CHANCE FOR
SUN EVENING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG SYSTEM...STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUN. A
RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MON...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
COLDER...BUT NOT LIKE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE
LOOK AHEAD TO THE DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING IS DRY WITH SLIGHT
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1141 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FORECAST WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
GUSTS OF 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    29  50  36  57 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        30  50  37  54 /   0  10  10  20
VINEMONT      30  52  36  56 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  29  48  33  54 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   26  51  34  55 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    28  51  32  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 192050
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
250 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUED SPINNING ACROSS SE CANADA...CONTINUING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN LOW
OVER THE EASTERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN QUEBEC WAS BEING FORTIFIED
BY ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...AKA CLIPPER MOVING TOWARD IT FROM JUST
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH CLOUDS IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CLIPPER HAVE MADE IT SOUTHWARD OVER THIS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUED TO PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE THE SOMETIMES PLENTIFUL
HIGH CLOUDS...A SW FLOW HAS HELPED TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH READINGS SO FAR UP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD...REACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING GREATER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE AND WEAK
LIFT WILL BE PRESENT TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NW ALABAMA
DURING FRI.

DRY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE SHOULD RETURN TO THE VALLEY FOR SAT. A
SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC NEAR 42N140W WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...AND INDUCE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEG TILT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING SUN. AN ENHANCED MOISTURE INFLOW EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING TO MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH HIGH HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES. BUT INSTABILITIES
WERE NIL. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND STILL STRONG
LIFT...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN WITH PREDOMINATE RAINS.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS. UNLIKE THE LAST RAIN EVENT HERE...THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND DURING SUN MORNING WILL BE A
RATHER BRIEF AFFAIR. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
ASSOCIATED HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING SUN/MON...WITH
RAIN CHANCES LOWERING. HAVE TRIMMED RAIN CHANCES TO A CHANCE FOR
SUN EVENING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG SYSTEM...STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUN. A
RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MON...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
COLDER...BUT NOT LIKE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE
LOOK AHEAD TO THE DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING IS DRY WITH SLIGHT
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1141 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FORECAST WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
GUSTS OF 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    29  50  36  57 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        30  50  37  54 /   0  10  10  20
VINEMONT      30  52  36  56 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  29  48  33  54 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   26  51  34  55 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    28  51  32  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 191825 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014


.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13


AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...AFTER A MORNING OF RECORD SETTING LOWS...TEMPERATURES ARE
RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
8 AM CST. WE WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO REMOVE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MORNING TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TO RECORD LEVELS THIS MORNING AS WINDS DECOUPLE
AT THE SFC WITH THE AID OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING ACROSS
THE MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE
SE CONUS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ON THE WESTERN SIDE TODAY
AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE CUT OFF RESULTING IN A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION. WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AT THE SFC A
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING
RESULTING IN STILL ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH SFC TEMPS STILL AVERAGING
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. WITH BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED
FOR TODAY THOUGH WITH A 2 TO 3 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH RECORD LOW TEMPS STARTING OUT FOR THE DAY
HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPS TODAY RESULTING IN DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S
FOR ALL AREAS IN THE CWFA. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING AND MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE MID 30S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE COOLER INLAND
AREAS MAINLY IN THE CRESTVIEW FLORIDA AREA. 32/EE

A DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWESTERN STATES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER...
BEFORE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MODERATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY LOOK TO MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 INLAND
AND IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...DRY MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...BEFORE
FLOW TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY TO THE VICINITY OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A
ZONE OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH
OF LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...AND PERHAPS
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWFA. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT RAPIDLY LIFTS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWFA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SURGE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOOKING TO RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD...LIKELY
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW VERY STRONG
SHEAR SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...60-80 KTS IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT...INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA COULD BE HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND WE WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THAT COULD
IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO THIS DEVELOPING EVENT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AS MUCH DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. THE NEXT BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASED LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORTS KEEPING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BACK INTO THE REGION. /21

MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THU SETTLING
NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRI. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST THU THROUGH EARLY THU NIGHT.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT EARLY TUE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT. EXPECT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALSO SAT NIGHT AND
EARLY SUN WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRI THROUGH SUN. 32/EE

FIRE WEATHER...CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL IMPACT
MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. WHILE CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER
HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ERC VALUES DO NOT LOOK TO
MEET THE NECESSARY CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING THERE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  38  65  45  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   55  37  64  46  66 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  35  63  50  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   55  30  63  37  66 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  57  33  63  41  67 /  00  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      57  31  62  36  66 /  00  00  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   55  26  66  38  66 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 191825 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014


.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13


AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...AFTER A MORNING OF RECORD SETTING LOWS...TEMPERATURES ARE
RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
8 AM CST. WE WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO REMOVE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MORNING TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TO RECORD LEVELS THIS MORNING AS WINDS DECOUPLE
AT THE SFC WITH THE AID OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING ACROSS
THE MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE
SE CONUS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ON THE WESTERN SIDE TODAY
AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE CUT OFF RESULTING IN A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION. WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AT THE SFC A
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING
RESULTING IN STILL ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH SFC TEMPS STILL AVERAGING
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. WITH BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED
FOR TODAY THOUGH WITH A 2 TO 3 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH RECORD LOW TEMPS STARTING OUT FOR THE DAY
HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPS TODAY RESULTING IN DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S
FOR ALL AREAS IN THE CWFA. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING AND MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE MID 30S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE COOLER INLAND
AREAS MAINLY IN THE CRESTVIEW FLORIDA AREA. 32/EE

A DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWESTERN STATES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER...
BEFORE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MODERATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY LOOK TO MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 INLAND
AND IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...DRY MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...BEFORE
FLOW TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY TO THE VICINITY OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A
ZONE OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH
OF LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...AND PERHAPS
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWFA. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT RAPIDLY LIFTS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWFA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SURGE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOOKING TO RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD...LIKELY
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW VERY STRONG
SHEAR SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...60-80 KTS IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT...INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA COULD BE HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND WE WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THAT COULD
IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO THIS DEVELOPING EVENT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AS MUCH DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. THE NEXT BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASED LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORTS KEEPING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BACK INTO THE REGION. /21

MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THU SETTLING
NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRI. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST THU THROUGH EARLY THU NIGHT.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT EARLY TUE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT. EXPECT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALSO SAT NIGHT AND
EARLY SUN WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRI THROUGH SUN. 32/EE

FIRE WEATHER...CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL IMPACT
MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. WHILE CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER
HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ERC VALUES DO NOT LOOK TO
MEET THE NECESSARY CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING THERE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  38  65  45  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   55  37  64  46  66 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  35  63  50  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   55  30  63  37  66 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  57  33  63  41  67 /  00  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      57  31  62  36  66 /  00  00  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   55  26  66  38  66 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 191825 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014


.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13


AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...AFTER A MORNING OF RECORD SETTING LOWS...TEMPERATURES ARE
RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
8 AM CST. WE WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO REMOVE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MORNING TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TO RECORD LEVELS THIS MORNING AS WINDS DECOUPLE
AT THE SFC WITH THE AID OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING ACROSS
THE MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE
SE CONUS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ON THE WESTERN SIDE TODAY
AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE CUT OFF RESULTING IN A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION. WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AT THE SFC A
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING
RESULTING IN STILL ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH SFC TEMPS STILL AVERAGING
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. WITH BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED
FOR TODAY THOUGH WITH A 2 TO 3 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH RECORD LOW TEMPS STARTING OUT FOR THE DAY
HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPS TODAY RESULTING IN DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S
FOR ALL AREAS IN THE CWFA. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING AND MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE MID 30S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE COOLER INLAND
AREAS MAINLY IN THE CRESTVIEW FLORIDA AREA. 32/EE

A DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWESTERN STATES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER...
BEFORE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MODERATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY LOOK TO MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 INLAND
AND IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...DRY MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...BEFORE
FLOW TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY TO THE VICINITY OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A
ZONE OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH
OF LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...AND PERHAPS
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWFA. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT RAPIDLY LIFTS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWFA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SURGE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOOKING TO RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD...LIKELY
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW VERY STRONG
SHEAR SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...60-80 KTS IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT...INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA COULD BE HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND WE WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THAT COULD
IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO THIS DEVELOPING EVENT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AS MUCH DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. THE NEXT BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASED LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORTS KEEPING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BACK INTO THE REGION. /21

MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THU SETTLING
NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRI. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST THU THROUGH EARLY THU NIGHT.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT EARLY TUE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT. EXPECT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALSO SAT NIGHT AND
EARLY SUN WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRI THROUGH SUN. 32/EE

FIRE WEATHER...CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL IMPACT
MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. WHILE CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER
HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ERC VALUES DO NOT LOOK TO
MEET THE NECESSARY CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING THERE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  38  65  45  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   55  37  64  46  66 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  35  63  50  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   55  30  63  37  66 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  57  33  63  41  67 /  00  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      57  31  62  36  66 /  00  00  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   55  26  66  38  66 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 191825 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014


.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13


AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...AFTER A MORNING OF RECORD SETTING LOWS...TEMPERATURES ARE
RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
8 AM CST. WE WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO REMOVE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MORNING TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TO RECORD LEVELS THIS MORNING AS WINDS DECOUPLE
AT THE SFC WITH THE AID OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING ACROSS
THE MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE
SE CONUS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ON THE WESTERN SIDE TODAY
AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE CUT OFF RESULTING IN A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION. WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AT THE SFC A
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING
RESULTING IN STILL ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH SFC TEMPS STILL AVERAGING
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. WITH BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED
FOR TODAY THOUGH WITH A 2 TO 3 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH RECORD LOW TEMPS STARTING OUT FOR THE DAY
HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPS TODAY RESULTING IN DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S
FOR ALL AREAS IN THE CWFA. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING AND MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE MID 30S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE COOLER INLAND
AREAS MAINLY IN THE CRESTVIEW FLORIDA AREA. 32/EE

A DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWESTERN STATES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER...
BEFORE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MODERATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY LOOK TO MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 INLAND
AND IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...DRY MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...BEFORE
FLOW TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY TO THE VICINITY OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A
ZONE OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH
OF LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...AND PERHAPS
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWFA. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT RAPIDLY LIFTS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWFA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SURGE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOOKING TO RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD...LIKELY
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW VERY STRONG
SHEAR SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...60-80 KTS IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT...INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA COULD BE HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND WE WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THAT COULD
IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO THIS DEVELOPING EVENT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AS MUCH DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. THE NEXT BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASED LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORTS KEEPING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BACK INTO THE REGION. /21

MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THU SETTLING
NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRI. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST THU THROUGH EARLY THU NIGHT.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY BUILD FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT EARLY TUE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT. EXPECT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALSO SAT NIGHT AND
EARLY SUN WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE
FRI THROUGH SUN. 32/EE

FIRE WEATHER...CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL IMPACT
MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. WHILE CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER
HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ERC VALUES DO NOT LOOK TO
MEET THE NECESSARY CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING THERE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  38  65  45  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   55  37  64  46  66 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  35  63  50  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   55  30  63  37  66 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  57  33  63  41  67 /  00  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      57  31  62  36  66 /  00  00  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   55  26  66  38  66 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 191756 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS MORNING...BUT SITUATED/
ELONGATED HALF WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD JUST RIGHT FOR A SOUTH
TO WEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHICH IS HELPING TO WARM
THINGS UP NICELY. CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
NEED TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO TURN TO MORE WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOME.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 413 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

RECORDS HAVE BEEN SHATTERED IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING WITH
AN IDEAL SETUP IN PLACE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONE OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS ON THE MAP IS MONTGOMERY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY 17F.
THOUGH SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND CREATED A
VERY SHARP INVERSION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MIX DOWN MUCH WARMER AIR.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST COULD SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT...AND CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS BY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AXIS OF HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT THE
SITUATION WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TO OUR NORTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WIND SHEAR AND DYNAMICS LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WHICH MAY CAUSE THE WARM SECTOR TO BECOME
PINCHED OFF WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THE STRONG FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT A QLCS WILL FORM TO OUR WEST SATURDAY EVENING
AND RACE EASTWARD WITH A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED TORNADOES PROBABLY
CONFINED TO AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THIS THREAT COULD COME
FARTHER NORTH AND REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA IF
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MORE ROBUST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. FOR
CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE WITH A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE HWO
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A DRY SLOT WILL BLAST INTO THE CWA AS THE RAIN DEPARTS ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C INTO THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD MATCH UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS
A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED...BUT WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION IN THE 800-600MB LAYER WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  27  55  35  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    52  29  56  36  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  32  57  40  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  32  59  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      53  32  58  40  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      51  31  58  40  63 /   0   0   0  10   0
MONTGOMERY  55  29  61  37  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
TROY        54  28  61  36  65 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BULLOCK...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...
MONTGOMERY...PIKE...RUSSELL.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...CHAMBERS...CHILTON...CLAY...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...GREENE...HALE...MARENGO...PERRY...
RANDOLPH...SUMTER...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$

08/87






000
FXUS64 KBMX 191756 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS MORNING...BUT SITUATED/
ELONGATED HALF WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD JUST RIGHT FOR A SOUTH
TO WEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHICH IS HELPING TO WARM
THINGS UP NICELY. CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
NEED TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO TURN TO MORE WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOME.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 413 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

RECORDS HAVE BEEN SHATTERED IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING WITH
AN IDEAL SETUP IN PLACE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONE OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS ON THE MAP IS MONTGOMERY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY 17F.
THOUGH SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND CREATED A
VERY SHARP INVERSION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MIX DOWN MUCH WARMER AIR.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST COULD SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT...AND CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS BY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AXIS OF HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT THE
SITUATION WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TO OUR NORTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WIND SHEAR AND DYNAMICS LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WHICH MAY CAUSE THE WARM SECTOR TO BECOME
PINCHED OFF WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THE STRONG FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT A QLCS WILL FORM TO OUR WEST SATURDAY EVENING
AND RACE EASTWARD WITH A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED TORNADOES PROBABLY
CONFINED TO AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THIS THREAT COULD COME
FARTHER NORTH AND REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA IF
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MORE ROBUST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. FOR
CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE WITH A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE HWO
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A DRY SLOT WILL BLAST INTO THE CWA AS THE RAIN DEPARTS ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C INTO THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD MATCH UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS
A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED...BUT WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION IN THE 800-600MB LAYER WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  27  55  35  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    52  29  56  36  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  32  57  40  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  32  59  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      53  32  58  40  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      51  31  58  40  63 /   0   0   0  10   0
MONTGOMERY  55  29  61  37  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
TROY        54  28  61  36  65 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BULLOCK...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...
MONTGOMERY...PIKE...RUSSELL.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...CHAMBERS...CHILTON...CLAY...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...GREENE...HALE...MARENGO...PERRY...
RANDOLPH...SUMTER...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$

08/87







000
FXUS64 KHUN 191741 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1141 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1005 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE PRESENT TODAY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT ALL HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS LEADING TO WIND GUSTS 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ARE SLOW TO WARM THIS MORNING BUT AT THIS TIME WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AS MORE CONTINUOUS CLOUD COVER MAY LEND TO HIGHS A DEG OR TWO COOLER.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FORECAST WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
GUSTS OF 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191741 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1141 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1005 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE PRESENT TODAY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT ALL HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS LEADING TO WIND GUSTS 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ARE SLOW TO WARM THIS MORNING BUT AT THIS TIME WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AS MORE CONTINUOUS CLOUD COVER MAY LEND TO HIGHS A DEG OR TWO COOLER.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FORECAST WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
GUSTS OF 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 191658 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1058 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS MORNING...BUT SITUATED/
ELONGATED HALF WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD JUST RIGHT FOR A SOUTH
TO WEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHICH IS HELPING TO WARM
THINGS UP NICELY. CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
NEED TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 413 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

RECORDS HAVE BEEN SHATTERED IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING WITH
AN IDEAL SETUP IN PLACE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONE OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS ON THE MAP IS MONTGOMERY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY 17F.
THOUGH SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND CREATED A
VERY SHARP INVERSION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MIX DOWN MUCH WARMER AIR.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST COULD SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT...AND CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS BY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AXIS OF HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT THE
SITUATION WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TO OUR NORTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WIND SHEAR AND DYNAMICS LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WHICH MAY CAUSE THE WARM SECTOR TO BECOME
PINCHED OFF WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THE STRONG FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT A QLCS WILL FORM TO OUR WEST SATURDAY EVENING
AND RACE EASTWARD WITH A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED TORNADOES PROBABLY
CONFINED TO AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THIS THREAT COULD COME
FARTHER NORTH AND REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA IF
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MORE ROBUST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. FOR
CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE WITH A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE HWO
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A DRY SLOT WILL BLAST INTO THE CWA AS THE RAIN DEPARTS ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C INTO THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD MATCH UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS
A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED...BUT WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION IN THE 800-600MB LAYER WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  27  55  35  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    52  29  56  36  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  32  57  40  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  32  59  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      53  32  58  40  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      51  31  58  40  63 /   0   0   0  10   0
MONTGOMERY  55  29  61  37  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
TROY        54  28  61  36  65 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BULLOCK...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...
MONTGOMERY...PIKE...RUSSELL.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...CHAMBERS...CHILTON...CLAY...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...GREENE...HALE...MARENGO...PERRY...
RANDOLPH...SUMTER...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$

08/58/87








000
FXUS64 KBMX 191658 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1058 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS MORNING...BUT SITUATED/
ELONGATED HALF WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD JUST RIGHT FOR A SOUTH
TO WEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHICH IS HELPING TO WARM
THINGS UP NICELY. CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
NEED TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 413 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

RECORDS HAVE BEEN SHATTERED IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING WITH
AN IDEAL SETUP IN PLACE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONE OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS ON THE MAP IS MONTGOMERY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY 17F.
THOUGH SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND CREATED A
VERY SHARP INVERSION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MIX DOWN MUCH WARMER AIR.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST COULD SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT...AND CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS BY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AXIS OF HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT THE
SITUATION WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TO OUR NORTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WIND SHEAR AND DYNAMICS LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WHICH MAY CAUSE THE WARM SECTOR TO BECOME
PINCHED OFF WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THE STRONG FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT A QLCS WILL FORM TO OUR WEST SATURDAY EVENING
AND RACE EASTWARD WITH A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED TORNADOES PROBABLY
CONFINED TO AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THIS THREAT COULD COME
FARTHER NORTH AND REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA IF
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MORE ROBUST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. FOR
CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE WITH A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE HWO
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A DRY SLOT WILL BLAST INTO THE CWA AS THE RAIN DEPARTS ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C INTO THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD MATCH UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS
A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED...BUT WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION IN THE 800-600MB LAYER WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  27  55  35  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    52  29  56  36  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  32  57  40  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  32  59  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      53  32  58  40  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      51  31  58  40  63 /   0   0   0  10   0
MONTGOMERY  55  29  61  37  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
TROY        54  28  61  36  65 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BULLOCK...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...
MONTGOMERY...PIKE...RUSSELL.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...CHAMBERS...CHILTON...CLAY...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...GREENE...HALE...MARENGO...PERRY...
RANDOLPH...SUMTER...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$

08/58/87








000
FXUS64 KBMX 191658 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1058 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS MORNING...BUT SITUATED/
ELONGATED HALF WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD JUST RIGHT FOR A SOUTH
TO WEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHICH IS HELPING TO WARM
THINGS UP NICELY. CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
NEED TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 413 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

RECORDS HAVE BEEN SHATTERED IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING WITH
AN IDEAL SETUP IN PLACE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONE OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS ON THE MAP IS MONTGOMERY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY 17F.
THOUGH SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND CREATED A
VERY SHARP INVERSION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MIX DOWN MUCH WARMER AIR.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST COULD SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT...AND CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS BY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AXIS OF HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT THE
SITUATION WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TO OUR NORTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WIND SHEAR AND DYNAMICS LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WHICH MAY CAUSE THE WARM SECTOR TO BECOME
PINCHED OFF WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THE STRONG FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT A QLCS WILL FORM TO OUR WEST SATURDAY EVENING
AND RACE EASTWARD WITH A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED TORNADOES PROBABLY
CONFINED TO AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THIS THREAT COULD COME
FARTHER NORTH AND REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA IF
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MORE ROBUST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. FOR
CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE WITH A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE HWO
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A DRY SLOT WILL BLAST INTO THE CWA AS THE RAIN DEPARTS ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C INTO THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD MATCH UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS
A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED...BUT WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION IN THE 800-600MB LAYER WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  27  55  35  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    52  29  56  36  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  32  57  40  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  32  59  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      53  32  58  40  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      51  31  58  40  63 /   0   0   0  10   0
MONTGOMERY  55  29  61  37  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
TROY        54  28  61  36  65 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BULLOCK...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...
MONTGOMERY...PIKE...RUSSELL.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...CHAMBERS...CHILTON...CLAY...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...GREENE...HALE...MARENGO...PERRY...
RANDOLPH...SUMTER...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$

08/58/87








000
FXUS64 KBMX 191658 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1058 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS MORNING...BUT SITUATED/
ELONGATED HALF WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD JUST RIGHT FOR A SOUTH
TO WEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHICH IS HELPING TO WARM
THINGS UP NICELY. CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
NEED TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 413 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

RECORDS HAVE BEEN SHATTERED IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING WITH
AN IDEAL SETUP IN PLACE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONE OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS ON THE MAP IS MONTGOMERY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY 17F.
THOUGH SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND CREATED A
VERY SHARP INVERSION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MIX DOWN MUCH WARMER AIR.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST COULD SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT...AND CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS BY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AXIS OF HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT THE
SITUATION WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TO OUR NORTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WIND SHEAR AND DYNAMICS LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WHICH MAY CAUSE THE WARM SECTOR TO BECOME
PINCHED OFF WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THE STRONG FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT A QLCS WILL FORM TO OUR WEST SATURDAY EVENING
AND RACE EASTWARD WITH A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED TORNADOES PROBABLY
CONFINED TO AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THIS THREAT COULD COME
FARTHER NORTH AND REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA IF
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MORE ROBUST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. FOR
CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE WITH A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE HWO
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A DRY SLOT WILL BLAST INTO THE CWA AS THE RAIN DEPARTS ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C INTO THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD MATCH UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS
A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED...BUT WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION IN THE 800-600MB LAYER WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  27  55  35  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    52  29  56  36  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  32  57  40  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  32  59  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      53  32  58  40  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      51  31  58  40  63 /   0   0   0  10   0
MONTGOMERY  55  29  61  37  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
TROY        54  28  61  36  65 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BULLOCK...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...
MONTGOMERY...PIKE...RUSSELL.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...CHAMBERS...CHILTON...CLAY...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...GREENE...HALE...MARENGO...PERRY...
RANDOLPH...SUMTER...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$

08/58/87








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