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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 300530
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1230 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL TX THRU SRN MO AND
INTO SRN KY. THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER ERN CO. A FAIRLY
COMPLICATED FCST IS SHAPING UP BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THRU THE
WEEKEND. ANYHOW FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THE MCS THAT WENT ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY EARLIER THIS AFTN/EVENING HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED.
HOWEVER THE MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/SRN MS RIVER VALLEY IS STILL
PRODUCING LOTS OF CONVECTION FROM MO THRU TX. THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN TO A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
ALSO BASED ON NEW NAM DATA COMING IN WILL LOWER POPS ACROSS THE CWA
TO THE CHC CATEGORY. ADJUSTED MRNG LOWS DOWN A LITTLE...SINCE WE
ALREADY REACHED OUR FORECASTED LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS. FINALLY IF ANY
STORMS WOULD FORM OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT ACROSS THE TWO PRIMARY TAF SITES. HOWEVER BY SATURDAY AFTN
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TN VALLEY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA. MODELS SHOWS THAT THE PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ARND
03Z/SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN/NEAR
SHRA/TSRA...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMD
NOT SKED INCLUDED IN THE KMSL TAF DUE TO COMMS LINE ISSUES.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 300514 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1214 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...IFR LEVEL STRATUS HAVE MOVED OVER THE FA AND AM
EXPECTING TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WESTERN AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
LOCALIZED LOW END MVFR LEVEL CIGS.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...SO FAR...ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS BEEN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FA...WITH COLLIDING BOUNDARIES JUST NORTH OF CRENSHAW AND BUTLER
COUNTIES. EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 30.12Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 01.00Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT
8 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 7 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING...INCREASING TO 13 TO 16 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH 01.00Z. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...SHARP MID TO UPPER RIDGE JUST
WEST OF THE AL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SAT...THEN FURTHER EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SAT AFTERNOON. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE A CONTINUED
SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST WITH
THE MEAN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT OR FORCING TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... DYING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REFORMING AGAIN
MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SAT DUE TO THE DIURNAL CHARACTER
WITH THIS PATTERN. NEAR THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING INCREASING SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY ON SAT AS A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE BETTER RIDGING TO THE EAST. AS A
RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MOSTLY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DYING
OFF QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING THEN FILLING IN BETTER FROM THE WEST
LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SAT WILL BE OVER WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND 7.5 C/KM COMBINED
WITH THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SE MS STRETCHING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PARTS OF AL. THIS
PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON
REMAINING MOSTLY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST. /13

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RAIN ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE EAST
COAST TROUGH CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL TREND BACK INTO UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST. /13

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...
THEN WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BUILDING SOMEWHAT DURING DAY SAT
INTO SUN AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THIS BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING LATE
SUNDAY CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300514 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1214 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...IFR LEVEL STRATUS HAVE MOVED OVER THE FA AND AM
EXPECTING TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WESTERN AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
LOCALIZED LOW END MVFR LEVEL CIGS.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...SO FAR...ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS BEEN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FA...WITH COLLIDING BOUNDARIES JUST NORTH OF CRENSHAW AND BUTLER
COUNTIES. EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 30.12Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 01.00Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT
8 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 7 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING...INCREASING TO 13 TO 16 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH 01.00Z. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...SHARP MID TO UPPER RIDGE JUST
WEST OF THE AL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SAT...THEN FURTHER EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SAT AFTERNOON. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE A CONTINUED
SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST WITH
THE MEAN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT OR FORCING TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... DYING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REFORMING AGAIN
MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SAT DUE TO THE DIURNAL CHARACTER
WITH THIS PATTERN. NEAR THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING INCREASING SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY ON SAT AS A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE BETTER RIDGING TO THE EAST. AS A
RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MOSTLY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DYING
OFF QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING THEN FILLING IN BETTER FROM THE WEST
LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SAT WILL BE OVER WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND 7.5 C/KM COMBINED
WITH THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SE MS STRETCHING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PARTS OF AL. THIS
PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON
REMAINING MOSTLY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST. /13

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RAIN ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE EAST
COAST TROUGH CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL TREND BACK INTO UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST. /13

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...
THEN WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BUILDING SOMEWHAT DURING DAY SAT
INTO SUN AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THIS BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING LATE
SUNDAY CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 300512 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE CLEANED UP PRECIP GRIDS AND TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE
EVENING`S THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH
HELPED COOL OFF THE NORTHWEST SOONER. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED
FOR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE RAIN BUT SHOULD NOT BE TOO DENSE WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD BEHIND COMPLEX AND AHEAD OF NEXT ROUND OF
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER MISSISSIPPI THAT WILL BE MOVING IN ON
SATURDAY.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PRECIPITATION HAS FINALLY MOVED PAST ALL OF THE TERMINAL SITES. SO
WINDING DOWN THERE. CLOUD SHIELD IS EXTENSIVE. THIS COULD END UP
BEING HELPFUL KEEPING THE FOG FROM GETTING DENSE DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS BUT SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED WITH A VERY WET GROUND
FROM THE RAIN COMPLEX THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER. SOME MVFR CIGS
ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20...WHERE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WENESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE LARGE MCS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REACHING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BULK SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCV BUT IS STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TRENDS AND STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THE STORMS ARE ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH. TOMORROW A
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIOD BESIDES A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN SW FLOW AND ANY
POSSIBLE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IS LOW...BUT EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. THE WRF-ARW
INDICATES ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS AND MOVING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY CORFIDI VECTORS AND INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS A JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
THEREFORE WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEST WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WARM CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE. BULK SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SO A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

32/DAVIS

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES THAT ROTATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...AND TIMING
OF THE IMPULSES ARE DIFFICULT IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. THE ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT TOO MUCH OUT OF PHASE...WITH EACH MODEL
SHOWING A MCS APPROACHING WEST ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WERE ASSIGNED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONTEMPLATED LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEPT POPS BELOW 60
PERCENT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES WITH EACH IMPULSE. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM ANYTIME SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT DO NOT
SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR STAYS BELOW 30
KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT
SEVERE THREAT FOR ANY ONE PERIOD. THE SEVERE THREATS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES. THE
MODELS DO BRING IN SOME HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...BUT BEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA. THE MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE RAIN PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     83  64  81  61  78 /  30  60  70  30  50
ANNISTON    83  65  81  62  79 /  30  50  70  30  50
BIRMINGHAM  85  67  81  63  79 /  30  60  70  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  85  67  81  62  78 /  30  60  70  30  50
CALERA      84  66  80  63  79 /  30  50  70  30  50
AUBURN      85  66  82  64  82 /  20  30  50  30  30
MONTGOMERY  88  68  83  65  84 /  20  30  50  30  30
TROY        87  67  84  67  84 /  20  20  50  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/32/58




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300240
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
940 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...SO FAR...ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS BEEN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FA...WITH COLLIDING BOUNDARIES JUST NORTH OF CRENSHAW AND BUTLER
COUNTIES. EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 30.12Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 01.00Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT
8 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 7 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING...INCREASING TO 13 TO 16 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH 01.00Z. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...SHARP MID TO UPPER RIDGE JUST
WEST OF THE AL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SAT...THEN FURTHER EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SAT AFTERNOON. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE A CONTINUED
SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST WITH
THE MEAN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT OR FORCING TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... DYING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REFORMING AGAIN
MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SAT DUE TO THE DIURNAL CHARACTER
WITH THIS PATTERN. NEAR THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING INCREASING SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY ON SAT AS A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE BETTER RIDGING TO THE EAST. AS A
RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MOSTLY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DYING
OFF QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING THEN FILLING IN BETTER FROM THE WEST
LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SAT WILL BE OVER WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND 7.5 C/KM COMBINED
WITH THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SE MS STRETCHING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PARTS OF AL. THIS
PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON
REMAINING MOSTLY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST. /13

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RAIN ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE EAST
COAST TROUGH CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL TREND BACK INTO UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST. /13

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...
THEN WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BUILDING SOMEWHAT DURING DAY SAT
INTO SUN AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THIS BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING LATE
SUNDAY CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300240
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
940 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...SO FAR...ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS BEEN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FA...WITH COLLIDING BOUNDARIES JUST NORTH OF CRENSHAW AND BUTLER
COUNTIES. EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 30.12Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 01.00Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT
8 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 7 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING...INCREASING TO 13 TO 16 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH 01.00Z. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...SHARP MID TO UPPER RIDGE JUST
WEST OF THE AL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SAT...THEN FURTHER EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SAT AFTERNOON. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE A CONTINUED
SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST WITH
THE MEAN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT OR FORCING TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... DYING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REFORMING AGAIN
MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SAT DUE TO THE DIURNAL CHARACTER
WITH THIS PATTERN. NEAR THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING INCREASING SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY ON SAT AS A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE BETTER RIDGING TO THE EAST. AS A
RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MOSTLY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DYING
OFF QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING THEN FILLING IN BETTER FROM THE WEST
LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SAT WILL BE OVER WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND 7.5 C/KM COMBINED
WITH THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SE MS STRETCHING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PARTS OF AL. THIS
PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON
REMAINING MOSTLY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST. /13

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RAIN ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE EAST
COAST TROUGH CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL TREND BACK INTO UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST. /13

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...
THEN WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BUILDING SOMEWHAT DURING DAY SAT
INTO SUN AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THIS BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING LATE
SUNDAY CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300226
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
926 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL TX THRU SRN MO AND
INTO SRN KY. THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER ERN CO. A FAIRLY
COMPLICATED FCST IS SHAPING UP BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THRU THE
WEEKEND. ANYHOW FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THE MCS THAT WENT ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY EARLIER THIS AFTN/EVENING HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED.
HOWEVER THE MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/SRN MS RIVER VALLEY IS STILL
PRODUCING LOTS OF CONVECTION FROM MO THRU TX. THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN TO A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
ALSO BASED ON NEW NAM DATA COMING IN WILL LOWER POPS ACROSS THE CWA
TO THE CHC CATEGORY. ADJUSTED MRNG LOWS DOWN A LITTLE...SINCE WE
ALREADY REACHED OUR FORECASTED LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS. FINALLY IF ANY
STORMS WOULD FORM OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 634 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A CDFNT DRAPED ACROSS NRN AL IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. WILL KEEP VCTS IN TAFS UNTIL ARND 03Z.
AFTER 03Z SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF TAF
SITES UNTIL ARND 20Z SATURDAY AFTN. AFTER 20Z ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE TN VALLEY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA.
EXPECT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 224 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
THE LATEST 88-D AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AT 1920Z CONTINUED
TO SHOW THAT AN MCS AND ASSOCIATED LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
THIS LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM NEAR
MEMPHIS TENNESSEE...TO ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER. WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POPS FROM WEST TOWARD THE EAST THIS EVENING AS
LINE/AREA OF STRONG STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM HSV EASTWARD INTO THE MID 50S AT THIS TIME...IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. DEWPOINT TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL PRECIP FORECAST INDICATED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND BE JUST ABOUT
OUT OF THE AREA BY BETWEEN 03Z-04Z TONIGHT. HAVE TAPERED OFF
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THEREAFTER TONIGHT.

BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH MISSISSIPPI TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z
SATURDAY AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL AGAIN FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA AGAIN EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL FURTHER DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION INTO THE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS AND DRYING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURRING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...TO END RAIN CHANCES.

A NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 292354 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 30.12Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 01.00Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT
8 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 7 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING...INCREASING TO 13 TO 16 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH 01.00Z. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...SHARP MID TO UPPER RIDGE JUST
WEST OF THE AL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SAT...THEN FURTHER EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SAT AFTERNOON. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE A CONTINUED
SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST WITH
THE MEAN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT OR FORCING TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... DYING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REFORMING AGAIN
MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SAT DUE TO THE DIURNAL CHARACTER
WITH THIS PATTERN. NEAR THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING INCREASING SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY ON SAT AS A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE BETTER RIDGING TO THE EAST. AS A
RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MOSTLY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DYING
OFF QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING THEN FILLING IN BETTER FROM THE WEST
LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SAT WILL BE OVER WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND 7.5 C/KM COMBINED
WITH THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SE MS STRETCHING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PARTS OF AL. THIS
PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON
REMAINING MOSTLY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST. /13

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RAIN ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE EAST
COAST TROUGH CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL TREND BACK INTO UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST. /13

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...
THEN WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BUILDING SOMEWHAT DURING DAY SAT
INTO SUN AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THIS BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING LATE
SUNDAY CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 292334
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 224 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
THE LATEST 88-D AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AT 1920Z CONTINUED
TO SHOW THAT AN MCS AND ASSOCIATED LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
THIS LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM NEAR
MEMPHIS TENNESSEE...TO ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER. WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POPS FROM WEST TOWARD THE EAST THIS EVENING AS
LINE/AREA OF STRONG STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM HSV EASTWARD INTO THE MID 50S AT THIS TIME...IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. DEWPOINT TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL PRECIP FORECAST INDICATED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND BE JUST ABOUT
OUT OF THE AREA BY BETWEEN 03Z-04Z TONIGHT. HAVE TAPERED OFF
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THEREAFTER TONIGHT.

BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH MISSISSIPPI TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z
SATURDAY AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL AGAIN FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA AGAIN EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL FURTHER DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION INTO THE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS AND DRYING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURRING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...TO END RAIN CHANCES.

A NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A CDFNT DRAPED ACROSS NRN AL IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. WILL KEEP VCTS IN TAFS UNTIL ARND 03Z.
AFTER 03Z SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF TAF
SITES UNTIL ARND 20Z SATURDAY AFTN. AFTER 20Z ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE TN VALLEY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA.
EXPECT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE FCST PERIOD.


007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 292047
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...SHARP MID TO UPPER RIDGE JUST
WEST OF THE AL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SAT...THEN FURTHER EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SAT AFTERNOON. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE A CONTINUED
SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST WITH
THE MEAN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT OR FORCING TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... DYING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REFORMING AGAIN
MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SAT DUE TO THE DIURNAL CHARACTER
WITH THIS PATTERN. NEAR THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING INCREASING SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY ON SAT AS A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE BETTER RIDGING TO THE EAST. AS A
RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MOSTLY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DYING
OFF QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING THEN FILLING IN BETTER FROM THE WEST
LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SAT WILL BE OVER WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND 7.5 C/KM COMBINED
WITH THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SE MS STRETCHING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PARTS OF AL. THIS
PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON
REMAINING MOSTLY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST. 32/EE


.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST. /13


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RAIN ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE EAST
COAST TROUGH CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL TREND BACK INTO UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...
THEN WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BUILDING SOMEWHAT DURING DAY SAT
INTO SUN AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THIS BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING LATE
SUNDAY CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  87  70  82 /   0  20  30  50
PENSACOLA   71  85  71  81 /   0  10  10  30
DESTIN      72  84  72  79 /   0  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   65  89  67  83 /   0  20  30  50
WAYNESBORO  66  88  68  81 /  10  30  40  70
CAMDEN      65  87  68  82 /  10  20  30  70
CRESTVIEW   64  90  69  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KBMX 292014
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE LARGE MCS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REACHING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BULK SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCV BUT IS STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TRENDS AND STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THE STORMS ARE ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH. TOMORROW A
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIOD BESIDES A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN SW FLOW AND ANY
POSSIBLE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IS LOW...BUT EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. THE WRF-ARW
INDICATES ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS AND MOVING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY CORFIDI VECTORS AND INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS A JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
THEREFORE WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEST WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WARM CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE. BULK SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SO A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

32/DAVIS

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES THAT ROTATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...AND TIMING
OF THE IMPULSES ARE DIFFICULT IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. THE ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT TOO MUCH OUT OF PHASE...WITH EACH MODEL
SHOWING A MCS APPROACHING WEST ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WERE ASSIGNED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONTEMPLATED LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEPT POPS BELOW 60
PERCENT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES WITH EACH IMPULSE. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM ANYTIME SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT DO NOT
SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR STAYS BELOW 30
KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT
SEVERE THREAT FOR ANY ONE PERIOD. THE SEVERE THREATS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES. THE
MODELS DO BRING IN SOME HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...BUT BEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA. THE MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE RAIN PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST MS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MENTION OF
TSRA FOR TCL/BHM/EET AND VCTS AT ANB/ASN WITH SOME QUESTION
REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT. VIS REDUCTION
WILL BE LIKELY BUT CIG HEIGHTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE UNCERTAIN.
ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR MGM/TOI WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AND HAVE ADDED AN MVFR
MENTION ONLY AT MGM/TOI THOUGH FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20...WHERE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WENESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  83  64  81  61 /  50  30  60  70  30
ANNISTON    65  84  65  81  62 /  30  30  50  70  30
BIRMINGHAM  67  85  67  81  63 /  60  30  60  70  30
TUSCALOOSA  66  85  67  81  62 /  60  40  60  70  30
CALERA      66  84  66  80  63 /  60  30  50  70  30
AUBURN      66  85  66  82  64 /  10  20  30  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  68  83  65 /  10  20  30  50  30
TROY        66  87  67  84  67 /  10  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291924
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
224 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 88-D AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AT 1920Z CONTINUED
TO SHOW THAT AN MCS AND ASSOCIATED LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
THIS LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM NEAR
MEMPHIS TENNESSEE...TO ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER. WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POPS FROM WEST TOWARD THE EAST THIS EVENING AS
LINE/AREA OF STRONG STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM HSV EASTWARD INTO THE MID 50S AT THIS TIME...IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. DEWPOINT TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL PRECIP FORECAST INDICATED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND BE JUST ABOUT
OUT OF THE AREA BY BETWEEN 03Z-04Z TONIGHT. HAVE TAPERED OFF
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THEREAFTER TONIGHT.

BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH MISSISSIPPI TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z
SATURDAY AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL AGAIN FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA AGAIN EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL FURTHER DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION INTO THE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS AND DRYING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURRING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...TO END RAIN CHANCES.

A NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...CURRENT VFR VIS/CIG AT KHSV/KMSL TAF SITES WILL GIVE
WAY TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES INTO
NRN AL. LATEST TIMING PLACES THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INVOF KMSL
BY 2130-2200Z. TSRA COVERAGE IS GENERALLY CONTINUOUS ALONG THE LINE
AND THUS FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT TSRA CHANCES AT KMSL. IMPACTS THERE MAY
BE GREATER THAN AT KHSV AS THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN AL. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FCST
FOR KMSL DUE TO THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF EXPECTED ACTIVITY...BUT
LOWER CIG/VIS MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY IF A HEAVIER CELL PASSES ACROSS THE
TAF SITE. RAPIDLY IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY AFTER 00-02Z
WITH VFR LARGELY PREVAILING THROUGH 30/1800Z.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    64  82  65  81 /  50  40  60  70
SHOALS        63  83  66  80 /  70  40  60  60
VINEMONT      62  81  65  79 /  50  30  60  70
FAYETTEVILLE  61  79  63  79 /  30  50  60  60
ALBERTVILLE   62  81  65  79 /  40  30  60  70
FORT PAYNE    59  80  63  78 /  20  40  60  70

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 291833 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
133 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 30.12Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 30.18Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT
10 TO 13 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 7 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING...INCREASING TO 13 TO 16 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH 30.18Z. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...HAVE DEPARTED FROM GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO COGS FOR
THE FORECAST. CURRENT CLOUD BASES ARE WELL ABOVE VFR MINIMUMS AND AM
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA WILL CREATE LOCALIZED DROPS TO MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VISBYS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT AM EXPECTING THIS COVERAGE TO BE
GENERALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. TONIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE LOW END MVFR/UPPER IFR LEVEL CIGS...BUT WITHT HE CURRENT
TRACK RECORD...AM TENDING TO DISCOUNT FOR THE LAST 12HRS OF THE
FORECAST.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ORGANIZING
THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. IN THIS CASE...A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF PROVIDING THE DOWNWARD MOTION TO
CREATE THE DRIER AIRMASS. PRECIP H20 VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5-
1.6" TO 1.1-1.2"...WITH THE LOWEST 5K` OF THE ATMOSPHERE SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL FEEL THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THIS AREA HANGING ON TO THE
HIGHER PRECIP H20 VALUES TODAY. FOR TODAY`S TEMPS...ALL GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS...WITH THE GFS BEING SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...TAKING A
AVERAGE OF THE NUMBERS AS A START...AS FEEL THE GFS IS OVERDONE.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO DRY OUT...SOME
GIVE AND TAKE WILL OCCUR. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECK...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA TONIGHT
(DUE TO DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND THIS
AFTERNOON`S ACTIVITY). COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. /16

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH MILD AND MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. A
DEEP SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER
ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND
EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING ON SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR CLOUD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 84 TO 89 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 6OS INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER
70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS...AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA MIDWEEK AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. /22

MARINE...GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY...WHEN A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND STALLS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW UNTIL
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MID
WEEK...BRINGING A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. /16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291802
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
102 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION AND SHORT TERM UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE LARGE MCS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REACHING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP AHEAD OF THE MCS
WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. BULK SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV BUT
THERE IS SOME QUESTION REGARDING THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
STRONGER SHEAR AND HOW ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM WILL BE AS IT
APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES NEAR PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS
TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY. TRENDS IN ORGANIZATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. FURTHER SOUTH A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE MCS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST MS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MENTION OF
TSRA FOR TCL/BHM/EET AND VCTS AT ANB/ASN WITH SOME QUESTION
REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT. VIS REDUCTION
WILL BE LIKELY BUT CIG HEIGHTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE UNCERTAIN.
ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR MGM/TOI WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AND HAVE ADDED AN MVFR
MENTION ONLY AT MGM/TOI THOUGH FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY A FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/


LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL ROTATE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY TOWARD THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUSH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST
LEAVING CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN ENHANCED LLJ
LIFTS FROM OUR WEST TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL JET STRUCTURES ARE WELL TO OUR WEST. WITH A WARM FRONT TO
OUR NORTH...THE AREA WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISM TO SPUR
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW...SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVING
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA AND THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS TREND
CONTINUES SUNDAY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT. AT
SOME POINT...EXPECT THE BETTER FORCING TO OUT PACE THE FRONT AND
RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WHEN THAT WILL HAPPEN AT THIS POINT...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEYOND EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES...THE FRONT WILL STALL...WAITING FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRIER...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  83  64  81  61 /  50  40  60  70  30
ANNISTON    63  83  65  81  62 /  30  30  50  70  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  83  67  80  63 /  60  30  60  70  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  84  67  82  62 /  60  20  60  70  30
CALERA      66  83  66  81  63 /  60  20  50  70  30
AUBURN      64  84  66  83  64 /  10  20  30  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  86  68  85  65 /  10  20  30  50  30
TROY        65  87  67  85  67 /  10  20  20  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291758 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1258 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1109 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
A LARGE MCS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH THIS FEATURE.
MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN TN IS EXPERIENCING SOME VERY
THIN AND HIGH CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF THIS
MCS.

THIS MCS IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG
OVERRUNNING COURTESY OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN TN.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MOVEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH INTO NW AL
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR
THE AL/MS BORDER BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP POPS AT BAY UNTIL BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM...WHEN
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA PUSHES FURTHER NORTH INTO NW AL. LUCKILY VERY LITTLE HELICITY
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DECENT
VALUES OF CAPE AT LEAST AROUND 1500 J/KG(AND UP TO 2200 J/KG IN SOME
MODELS) ARE BEING PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...GIVEN THIN NATURE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. SOME
SMALL HAIL LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN PROGGED CAPE...DESPITE FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 13000 FEET. BELIEVE MOST THUNDERSTORMS EVEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG IN NATURE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

STRONG FORCING IS PROGGED TO PUSH IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES AND SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO NW
ALABAMA. DUE TO INSTABILITY FORECAST BY MODELS...RAISED POP TO 80
PERCENT IN NW AL AND WEST OF I-65 TO HIGH CHANCE. KEPT A SHARP
GRADIENT IN POPS EAST OF I-65..DROPPING IT TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS IN
THOSE AREAS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...CURRENT VFR VIS/CIG AT KHSV/KMSL TAF SITES WILL GIVE
WAY TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES INTO
NRN AL. LATEST TIMING PLACES THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INVOF KMSL
BY 2130-2200Z. TSRA COVERAGE IS GENERALLY CONTINUOUS ALONG THE LINE
AND THUS FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT TSRA CHANCES AT KMSL. IMPACTS THERE MAY
BE GREATER THAN AT KHSV AS THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN AL. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FCST
FOR KMSL DUE TO THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF EXPECTED ACTIVITY...BUT
LOWER CIG/VIS MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY IF A HEAVIER CELL PASSES ACROSS THE
TAF SITE. RAPIDLY IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY AFTER 00-02Z
WITH VFR LARGELY PREVAILING THROUGH 30/1800Z.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291758 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1258 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1109 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
A LARGE MCS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH THIS FEATURE.
MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN TN IS EXPERIENCING SOME VERY
THIN AND HIGH CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF THIS
MCS.

THIS MCS IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG
OVERRUNNING COURTESY OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN TN.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MOVEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH INTO NW AL
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR
THE AL/MS BORDER BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP POPS AT BAY UNTIL BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM...WHEN
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA PUSHES FURTHER NORTH INTO NW AL. LUCKILY VERY LITTLE HELICITY
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DECENT
VALUES OF CAPE AT LEAST AROUND 1500 J/KG(AND UP TO 2200 J/KG IN SOME
MODELS) ARE BEING PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...GIVEN THIN NATURE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. SOME
SMALL HAIL LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN PROGGED CAPE...DESPITE FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 13000 FEET. BELIEVE MOST THUNDERSTORMS EVEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG IN NATURE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

STRONG FORCING IS PROGGED TO PUSH IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES AND SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO NW
ALABAMA. DUE TO INSTABILITY FORECAST BY MODELS...RAISED POP TO 80
PERCENT IN NW AL AND WEST OF I-65 TO HIGH CHANCE. KEPT A SHARP
GRADIENT IN POPS EAST OF I-65..DROPPING IT TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS IN
THOSE AREAS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...CURRENT VFR VIS/CIG AT KHSV/KMSL TAF SITES WILL GIVE
WAY TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES INTO
NRN AL. LATEST TIMING PLACES THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INVOF KMSL
BY 2130-2200Z. TSRA COVERAGE IS GENERALLY CONTINUOUS ALONG THE LINE
AND THUS FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT TSRA CHANCES AT KMSL. IMPACTS THERE MAY
BE GREATER THAN AT KHSV AS THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN AL. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FCST
FOR KMSL DUE TO THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF EXPECTED ACTIVITY...BUT
LOWER CIG/VIS MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY IF A HEAVIER CELL PASSES ACROSS THE
TAF SITE. RAPIDLY IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY AFTER 00-02Z
WITH VFR LARGELY PREVAILING THROUGH 30/1800Z.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291609 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1109 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...AND RAISE
POP VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NW AL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE MCS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH THIS FEATURE.
MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN TN IS EXPERIENCING SOME VERY
THIN AND HIGH CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF THIS
MCS.

THIS MCS IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG
OVERUNNING COURTESY OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN TN.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MOVEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH INTO NW AL
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR
THE AL/MS BORDER BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP POPS AT BAY UNTIL BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM...WHEN
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA PUSHES FURTHER NORTH INTO NW AL. LUCKILY VERY LITTLE HELICITY
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DECENT
VALUES OF CAPE AT LEAST AROUND 1500 J/KG(AND UP TO 2200 J/KG IN SOME
MODELS) ARE BEING PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...GIVEN THIN NATURE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. SOME
SMALL HAIL LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN PROGGED CAPE...DESPITE FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 13000 FEET. BELIEVE MOST THUNDERSTORMS EVEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG IN NATURE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

STRONG FORCING IS PROGGED TO PUSH IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES AND SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO NW
ALABAMA. DUE TO INSTABILITY FORECAST BY MODELS...RAISED POP TO 80
PERCENT IN NW AL AND WEST OF I-65 TO HIGH CHANCE. KEPT A SHARP
GRADIENT IN POPS EAST OF I-65..DROPPING IT TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS IN
THOSE AREAS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 636 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THAT
BEING SAID...ISOLATED CONVECTION INVOF KMSL COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
VIS/CIG REDUCTION AT THE TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE
EVENING...AS SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTS NW ALABAMA. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
OTHERWISE CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME SE AROUND 5KT BY AROUND 16Z...THEN S-SW 5-15KT
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SE AFTER SUNSET.
BRIEF AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF SHOWERS THAT FORM.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION...FORECAST UPDATE...AND DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED VERY QUICKLY ALONG THE U.S. 80/I-85
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING, AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES ARE BEING
OBSERVED ON SKYCAMS AND TRAFFIC CAMS. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM FOR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES.

OTHER FORECAST UPDATE FOR TODAY INCLUDED UPDATING POPS TO LIKELY
FOR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. BETTER AGREEMENT HAS EMERGED BETWEEN HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IN AN MCS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE WRF-ARW AND HRRR NOW SHOW A PRONOUNCED LINE OF STRONG
STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES BETWEEN
4PM AND 7PM, AND QUICKLY PUSHING TO THE I-65 AND I-20/59 CORRIDORS
AFTER 7PM. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE DAY, AS WELL AS MONITOR THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE
LINE OF STORMS. AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION OF THE MCS
THROUGH THE DAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING AND
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT KMGM AND KTOI THIS MORNING. LIFR VIS
AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z BEFORE MIXING WILL
ALLOW THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE OTHER AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL
BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH A LINE OF STORMS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND AFFECTING
MANY NORTHERN TERMINALS. FOR NOW, HAVE ADDED IN VCTS AT KTCL,
KEET, AND KBHM FOR THE POSSIBILITY, AND WE MAY NEED TO ADD IN A
PREVAILING TSRA GROUP IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY A FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

A FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS UPON CENTRAL ALABAMA. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER A FEW LOCATIONS, BUT WIDESPREAD FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING, AS THE OLD SURFACE FRONT MOVED NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
YESTERDAY AND HAS SINCE WASHED OUT. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST TODAY,
IT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS ONE OF OUR FIRST "HOT" DAYS OF THE YEAR.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH WILL ALSO AMPLIFY. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF WE WILL SEE
ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A NORTHWARD
MOVING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT`S ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THAT AN MCS WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OF COURSE THE MCS WOULD BE GREATLY WEAKENED BY THE TIME IT
REACHED ALABAMA, BUT WOULD CERTAINLY THROW A WRENCH INTO THE POP
FORECAST. FOR NOW, SINCE THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GAIN
TRACTION ON THE MCS SOLUTION, HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF
CHANCE POPS THEN INCREASES SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS DUE TO THE CHANCE OF ANYTHING LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS PUSHING
TOWARD THE I-65 CORRIDOR. IT`S CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST, AND WILL INVOLVE WATCHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
DAY. OTHERWISE, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE HEATING OF THE
DAY, WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS WILL EXIST.

ANY LEFTOVER DRY AIR ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL BE ERODED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TAKES
BACK OVER. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE MOST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
PRESENT. ALSO, THE LOW LEVEL 925MB JET WILL BE STRONGEST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT MUGGY OUTSIDE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

56/GDG

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL ROTATE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY TOWARD THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUSH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST
LEAVING CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN ENHANCED LLJ
LIFTS FROM OUR WEST TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL JET STRUCTURES ARE WELL TO OUR WEST. WITH A WARM FRONT TO
OUR NORTH...THE AREA WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISM TO SPUR
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW...SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVING
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA AND THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS TREND
CONTINUES SUNDAY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT. AT
SOME POINT...EXPECT THE BETTER FORCING TO OUT PACE THE FRONT AND
RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WHEN THAT WILL HAPPEN AT THIS POINT...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEYOND EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES...THE FRONT WILL STALL...WAITING FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRIER...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  64  83  64  81 /  10  20  40  60  70
ANNISTON    86  63  83  65  81 /  10  20  30  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  83  67  80 /  40  60  30  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  87  68  84  67  82 /  60  60  20  50  70
CALERA      86  66  83  66  81 /  30  50  20  50  70
AUBURN      87  64  84  66  83 /  10  10  20  30  50
MONTGOMERY  89  66  86  68  85 /  20  20  20  30  50
TROY        89  65  87  67  85 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BULLOCK...CHAMBERS...DALLAS...
ELMORE...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MONTGOMERY...PIKE...RUSSELL...
TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION...FORECAST UPDATE...AND DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED VERY QUICKLY ALONG THE U.S. 80/I-85
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING, AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES ARE BEING
OBSERVED ON SKYCAMS AND TRAFFIC CAMS. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM FOR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES.

OTHER FORECAST UPDATE FOR TODAY INCLUDED UPDATING POPS TO LIKELY
FOR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. BETTER AGREEMENT HAS EMERGED BETWEEN HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IN AN MCS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE WRF-ARW AND HRRR NOW SHOW A PRONOUNCED LINE OF STRONG
STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES BETWEEN
4PM AND 7PM, AND QUICKLY PUSHING TO THE I-65 AND I-20/59 CORRIDORS
AFTER 7PM. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE DAY, AS WELL AS MONITOR THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE
LINE OF STORMS. AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION OF THE MCS
THROUGH THE DAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING AND
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT KMGM AND KTOI THIS MORNING. LIFR VIS
AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z BEFORE MIXING WILL
ALLOW THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE OTHER AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL
BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH A LINE OF STORMS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND AFFECTING
MANY NORTHERN TERMINALS. FOR NOW, HAVE ADDED IN VCTS AT KTCL,
KEET, AND KBHM FOR THE POSSIBILITY, AND WE MAY NEED TO ADD IN A
PREVAILING TSRA GROUP IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY A FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

A FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS UPON CENTRAL ALABAMA. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER A FEW LOCATIONS, BUT WIDESPREAD FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING, AS THE OLD SURFACE FRONT MOVED NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
YESTERDAY AND HAS SINCE WASHED OUT. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST TODAY,
IT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS ONE OF OUR FIRST "HOT" DAYS OF THE YEAR.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH WILL ALSO AMPLIFY. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF WE WILL SEE
ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A NORTHWARD
MOVING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT`S ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THAT AN MCS WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OF COURSE THE MCS WOULD BE GREATLY WEAKENED BY THE TIME IT
REACHED ALABAMA, BUT WOULD CERTAINLY THROW A WRENCH INTO THE POP
FORECAST. FOR NOW, SINCE THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GAIN
TRACTION ON THE MCS SOLUTION, HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF
CHANCE POPS THEN INCREASES SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS DUE TO THE CHANCE OF ANYTHING LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS PUSHING
TOWARD THE I-65 CORRIDOR. IT`S CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST, AND WILL INVOLVE WATCHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
DAY. OTHERWISE, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE HEATING OF THE
DAY, WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS WILL EXIST.

ANY LEFTOVER DRY AIR ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL BE ERODED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TAKES
BACK OVER. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE MOST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
PRESENT. ALSO, THE LOW LEVEL 925MB JET WILL BE STRONGEST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT MUGGY OUTSIDE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

56/GDG

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL ROTATE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY TOWARD THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUSH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST
LEAVING CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN ENHANCED LLJ
LIFTS FROM OUR WEST TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL JET STRUCTURES ARE WELL TO OUR WEST. WITH A WARM FRONT TO
OUR NORTH...THE AREA WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISM TO SPUR
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW...SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVING
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA AND THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS TREND
CONTINUES SUNDAY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT. AT
SOME POINT...EXPECT THE BETTER FORCING TO OUT PACE THE FRONT AND
RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WHEN THAT WILL HAPPEN AT THIS POINT...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEYOND EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES...THE FRONT WILL STALL...WAITING FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRIER...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  64  83  64  81 /  10  20  40  60  70
ANNISTON    86  63  83  65  81 /  10  20  30  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  83  67  80 /  40  60  30  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  87  68  84  67  82 /  60  60  20  50  70
CALERA      86  66  83  66  81 /  30  50  20  50  70
AUBURN      87  64  84  66  83 /  10  10  20  30  50
MONTGOMERY  89  66  86  68  85 /  20  20  20  30  50
TROY        89  65  87  67  85 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BULLOCK...CHAMBERS...DALLAS...
ELMORE...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MONTGOMERY...PIKE...RUSSELL...
TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291136 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
WEAK RIDGE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF REGION THIS EARLY FRI
MORNING...TRANSLATING TO QUIET WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE CHANGING THOUGH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A
FEW CLOUDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD BACK INTO NW AL FROM THE W.
THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY
EVENING HAS STALLED/WEAKENED INVOF CNTRL AL/MS...WITH A SECOND SFC
BOUNDARY POSITIONED N OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SWWD INTO SRN OK/NRN TX. THERE`S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE LATEST
MODEL SUITES WITH THE DEVELOPING WX PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.
IN THE SHORT TERM AT LEAST...CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE DAY...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM INTO
THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BEST GUESS THEN IS THAT THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES
BEGINS TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA...AS THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS MORE
TOWARD THE SW. ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD EWD INTO NW AL
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MORE SCT IN
NATURE THIS EVENING...AS THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S LIFTS
BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY/SHEAR MAY BE
MAXIMIZED JUST ENOUGH ALONG THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT THIS EVENING
TO RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TSTMS...CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS
A STRONG SFC LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO TRANSLATE ENEWD OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS. AS THIS DEVELOPS...THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL DRAG AN EVEN
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE E...WITH THE BOUNDARY SLATED TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENING. SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOK TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH
SOME OF THIS RAINFALL POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES ON SUN. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2-3K J/KG RANGE DURING THE DAY SUN
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/UPPER FORCING THOUGH SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD
THREAT OF SVR TSTMS. RAINFALL SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
THE W SUN NIGHT...AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE S/E.

HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN
STREAM FLOW MAY TRANSLATE INTO A FEW MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS MON INTO
TUE...BEFORE RAINFALL COMPLETELY EXITS BY WED. QUIET AND MORE
SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS/WX ARE THEN XPCTED FOR THE MID/LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD INTO MUCH
OF THE REGION THU INTO FRI.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THAT
BEING SAID...ISOLATED CONVECTION INVOF KMSL COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
VIS/CIG REDUCTION AT THE TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE
EVENING...AS SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTS NW ALABAMA. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
OTHERWISE CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME SE AROUND 5KT BY AROUND 16Z...THEN S-SW 5-15KT
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SE AFTER SUNSET.
BRIEF AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF SHOWERS THAT FORM.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291136 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
WEAK RIDGE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF REGION THIS EARLY FRI
MORNING...TRANSLATING TO QUIET WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE CHANGING THOUGH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A
FEW CLOUDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD BACK INTO NW AL FROM THE W.
THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY
EVENING HAS STALLED/WEAKENED INVOF CNTRL AL/MS...WITH A SECOND SFC
BOUNDARY POSITIONED N OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SWWD INTO SRN OK/NRN TX. THERE`S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE LATEST
MODEL SUITES WITH THE DEVELOPING WX PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.
IN THE SHORT TERM AT LEAST...CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE DAY...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM INTO
THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BEST GUESS THEN IS THAT THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES
BEGINS TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA...AS THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS MORE
TOWARD THE SW. ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD EWD INTO NW AL
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MORE SCT IN
NATURE THIS EVENING...AS THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S LIFTS
BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY/SHEAR MAY BE
MAXIMIZED JUST ENOUGH ALONG THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT THIS EVENING
TO RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TSTMS...CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS
A STRONG SFC LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO TRANSLATE ENEWD OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS. AS THIS DEVELOPS...THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL DRAG AN EVEN
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE E...WITH THE BOUNDARY SLATED TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENING. SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOK TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH
SOME OF THIS RAINFALL POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES ON SUN. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2-3K J/KG RANGE DURING THE DAY SUN
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/UPPER FORCING THOUGH SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD
THREAT OF SVR TSTMS. RAINFALL SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
THE W SUN NIGHT...AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE S/E.

HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN
STREAM FLOW MAY TRANSLATE INTO A FEW MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS MON INTO
TUE...BEFORE RAINFALL COMPLETELY EXITS BY WED. QUIET AND MORE
SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS/WX ARE THEN XPCTED FOR THE MID/LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD INTO MUCH
OF THE REGION THU INTO FRI.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THAT
BEING SAID...ISOLATED CONVECTION INVOF KMSL COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
VIS/CIG REDUCTION AT THE TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE
EVENING...AS SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTS NW ALABAMA. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
OTHERWISE CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME SE AROUND 5KT BY AROUND 16Z...THEN S-SW 5-15KT
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SE AFTER SUNSET.
BRIEF AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF SHOWERS THAT FORM.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 291130 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...HAVE DEPARTED FROM GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO COGS FOR
THE FORECAST. CURRENT CLOUD BASES ARE WELL ABOVE VFR MINIMUMS AND AM
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA WILL CREATE LOCALIZED DROPS TO MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VISBYS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT AM EXPECTING THIS COVERAGE TO BE
GENERALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. TONIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE LOW END MVFR/UPPER IFR LEVEL CIGS...BUT WITHT HE CURRENT
TRACK RECORD...AM TENDING TO DISCOUNT FOR THE LAST 12HRS OF THE
FORECAST.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ORGANIZING
THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. IN THIS CASE...A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF PROVIDING THE DOWNWARD MOTION TO
CREATE THE DRIER AIRMASS. PRECIP H20 VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5-
1.6" TO 1.1-1.2"...WITH THE LOWEST 5K` OF THE ATMOSPHERE SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL FEEL THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THIS AREA HANGING ON TO THE
HIGHER PRECIP H20 VALUES TODAY. FOR TODAY`S TEMPS...ALL GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS...WITH THE GFS BEING SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...TAKING A
AVERAGE OF THE NUMBERS AS A START...AS FEEL THE GFS IS OVERDONE.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO DRY OUT...SOME
GIVE AND TAKE WILL OCCUR. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECK...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA TONIGHT
(DUE TO DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND THIS
AFTERNOON`S ACTIVITY). COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. /16

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH MILD AND MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. A
DEEP SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER
ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND
EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING ON SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR CLOUD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 84 TO 89 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 6OS INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER
70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS...AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA MIDWEEK AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. /22

MARINE...GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY...WHEN A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND STALLS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW UNTIL
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MID
WEEK...BRINGING A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. /16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 290954
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ORGANIZING
THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. IN THIS CASE...A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF PROVIDING THE DOWNWARD MOTION TO
CREATE THE DRIER AIRMASS. PRECIP H20 VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5-
1.6" TO 1.1-1.2"...WITH THE LOWEST 5K` OF THE ATMOSPHERE SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL FEEL THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THIS AREA HANGING ON TO THE
HIGHER PRECIP H20 VALUES TODAY. FOR TODAY`S TEMPS...ALL GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS...WITH THE GFS BEING SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...TAKING A
AVERAGE OF THE NUMBERS AS A START...AS FEEL THE GFS IS OVERDONE.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO DRY OUT...SOME
GIVE AND TAKE WILL OCCUR. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECK...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA TONIGHT
(DUE TO DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND THIS
AFTERNOON`S ACTIVITY). COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. /16

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH MILD AND MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. A
DEEP SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER
ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND
EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING ON SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR CLOUD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 84 TO 89 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 6OS INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER
70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS...AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA MIDWEEK AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. /22

&&

.MARINE...GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY...WHEN A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND STALLS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW UNTIL
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MID
WEEK...BRINGING A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  69  85  69 /  20   0  20  20
PENSACOLA   84  70  84  71 /  20   0  10  10
DESTIN      82  72  81  72 /  20   0  10  10
EVERGREEN   88  66  88  67 /  20   0  10  20
WAYNESBORO  90  67  86  67 /  30  10  20  40
CAMDEN      87  66  88  67 /  30  10  20  30
CRESTVIEW   89  65  88  67 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 290954
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ORGANIZING
THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. IN THIS CASE...A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF PROVIDING THE DOWNWARD MOTION TO
CREATE THE DRIER AIRMASS. PRECIP H20 VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5-
1.6" TO 1.1-1.2"...WITH THE LOWEST 5K` OF THE ATMOSPHERE SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL FEEL THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THIS AREA HANGING ON TO THE
HIGHER PRECIP H20 VALUES TODAY. FOR TODAY`S TEMPS...ALL GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS...WITH THE GFS BEING SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...TAKING A
AVERAGE OF THE NUMBERS AS A START...AS FEEL THE GFS IS OVERDONE.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO DRY OUT...SOME
GIVE AND TAKE WILL OCCUR. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECK...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA TONIGHT
(DUE TO DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND THIS
AFTERNOON`S ACTIVITY). COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. /16

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH MILD AND MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. A
DEEP SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER
ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND
EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING ON SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR CLOUD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 84 TO 89 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 6OS INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER
70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS...AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA MIDWEEK AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. /22

&&

.MARINE...GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY...WHEN A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND STALLS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW UNTIL
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MID
WEEK...BRINGING A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  69  85  69 /  20   0  20  20
PENSACOLA   84  70  84  71 /  20   0  10  10
DESTIN      82  72  81  72 /  20   0  10  10
EVERGREEN   88  66  88  67 /  20   0  10  20
WAYNESBORO  90  67  86  67 /  30  10  20  40
CAMDEN      87  66  88  67 /  30  10  20  30
CRESTVIEW   89  65  88  67 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290917
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
417 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

A FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS UPON CENTRAL ALABAMA. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER A FEW LOCATIONS, BUT WIDESPREAD FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING, AS THE OLD SURFACE FRONT MOVED NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
YESTERDAY AND HAS SINCE WASHED OUT. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST TODAY,
IT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS ONE OF OUR FIRST "HOT" DAYS OF THE YEAR.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH WILL ALSO AMPLIFY. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF WE WILL SEE
ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A NORTHWARD
MOVING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT`S ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THAT AN MCS WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OF COURSE THE MCS WOULD BE GREATLY WEAKENED BY THE TIME IT
REACHED ALABAMA, BUT WOULD CERTAINLY THROW A WRENCH INTO THE POP
FORECAST. FOR NOW, SINCE THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GAIN
TRACTION ON THE MCS SOLUTION, HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF
CHANCE POPS THEN INCREASES SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS DUE TO THE CHANCE OF ANYTHING LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS PUSHING
TOWARD THE I-65 CORRIDOR. IT`S CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST, AND WILL INVOLVE WATCHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
DAY. OTHERWISE, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE HEATING OF THE
DAY, WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS WILL EXIST.

ANY LEFTOVER DRY AIR ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL BE ERODED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TAKES
BACK OVER. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE MOST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
PRESENT. ALSO, THE LOW LEVEL 925MB JET WILL BE STRONGEST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT MUGGY OUTSIDE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

56/GDG

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL ROTATE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY TOWARD THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUSH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST
LEAVING CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN ENHANCED LLJ
LIFTS FROM OUR WEST TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL JET STRUCTURES ARE WELL TO OUR WEST. WITH A WARM FRONT TO
OUR NORTH...THE AREA WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISM TO SPUR
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW...SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVING
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA AND THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS TREND
CONTINUES SUNDAY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT. AT
SOME POINT...EXPECT THE BETTER FORCING TO OUT PACE THE FRONT AND
RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WHEN THAT WILL HAPPEN AT THIS POINT...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEYOND EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES...THE FRONT WILL STALL...WAITING FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRIER...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION DONE FOR TONIGHT FOR THIN LINE EARLIER ACROSS I-85
CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA AS SKIES CLEAR WITH MOISTURE LOW LEVELS. TOI WILL BE THE
LOWEST TONIGHT WHERE SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS AND LOW VSBYS ALREADY
THREATENING AND WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AS WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF TILL AFTER THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY A FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  61  82  64  78 /  10  20  40  60  70
ANNISTON    86  62  83  65  78 /  10  20  30  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  86  65  84  67  79 /  10  20  30  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  86  65  85  66  81 /  20  20  20  50  70
CALERA      85  65  84  66  79 /  10  10  20  50  70
AUBURN      86  65  84  66  79 /  10  10  20  30  50
MONTGOMERY  89  66  87  68  82 /  20  10  20  30  50
TROY        88  64  88  67  82 /  10  10  20  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290830
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
330 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF REGION THIS EARLY FRI
MORNING...TRANSLATING TO QUIET WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE CHANGING THOUGH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A
FEW CLOUDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD BACK INTO NW AL FROM THE W.
THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY
EVENING HAS STALLED/WEAKENED INVOF CNTRL AL/MS...WITH A SECOND SFC
BOUNDARY POSITIONED N OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SWWD INTO SRN OK/NRN TX. THERE`S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE LATEST
MODEL SUITES WITH THE DEVELOPING WX PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.
IN THE SHORT TERM AT LEAST...CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE DAY...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM INTO
THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BEST GUESS THEN IS THAT THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES
BEGINS TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA...AS THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS MORE
TOWARD THE SW. ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD EWD INTO NW AL
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MORE SCT IN
NATURE THIS EVENING...AS THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S LIFTS
BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY/SHEAR MAY BE
MAXIMIZED JUST ENOUGH ALONG THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT THIS EVENING
TO RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TSTMS...CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS
A STRONG SFC LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO TRANSLATE ENEWD OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS. AS THIS DEVELOPS...THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL DRAG AN EVEN
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE E...WITH THE BOUNDARY SLATED TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENING. SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOK TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH
SOME OF THIS RAINFALL POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES ON SUN. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2-3K J/KG RANGE DURING THE DAY SUN
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/UPPER FORCING THOUGH SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD
THREAT OF SVR TSTMS. RAINFALL SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
THE W SUN NIGHT...AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE S/E.

HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN
STREAM FLOW MAY TRANSLATE INTO A FEW MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS MON INTO
TUE...BEFORE RAINFALL COMPLETELY EXITS BY WED. QUIET AND MORE
SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS/WX ARE THEN XPCTED FOR THE MID/LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD INTO MUCH
OF THE REGION THU INTO FRI.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1203 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  64  82  64 /  10  40  40  60
SHOALS        84  63  83  65 /  20  40  40  60
VINEMONT      84  62  81  64 /  10  30  30  60
FAYETTEVILLE  83  61  79  62 /  10  30  50  60
ALBERTVILLE   84  62  81  64 /  10  20  30  60
FORT PAYNE    84  59  80  62 /  10  20  40  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290830
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
330 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF REGION THIS EARLY FRI
MORNING...TRANSLATING TO QUIET WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE CHANGING THOUGH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A
FEW CLOUDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD BACK INTO NW AL FROM THE W.
THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY
EVENING HAS STALLED/WEAKENED INVOF CNTRL AL/MS...WITH A SECOND SFC
BOUNDARY POSITIONED N OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SWWD INTO SRN OK/NRN TX. THERE`S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE LATEST
MODEL SUITES WITH THE DEVELOPING WX PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.
IN THE SHORT TERM AT LEAST...CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE DAY...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM INTO
THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BEST GUESS THEN IS THAT THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES
BEGINS TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA...AS THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS MORE
TOWARD THE SW. ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD EWD INTO NW AL
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MORE SCT IN
NATURE THIS EVENING...AS THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S LIFTS
BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY/SHEAR MAY BE
MAXIMIZED JUST ENOUGH ALONG THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT THIS EVENING
TO RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TSTMS...CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS
A STRONG SFC LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO TRANSLATE ENEWD OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS. AS THIS DEVELOPS...THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL DRAG AN EVEN
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE E...WITH THE BOUNDARY SLATED TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENING. SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOK TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH
SOME OF THIS RAINFALL POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES ON SUN. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2-3K J/KG RANGE DURING THE DAY SUN
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/UPPER FORCING THOUGH SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD
THREAT OF SVR TSTMS. RAINFALL SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
THE W SUN NIGHT...AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE S/E.

HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN
STREAM FLOW MAY TRANSLATE INTO A FEW MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS MON INTO
TUE...BEFORE RAINFALL COMPLETELY EXITS BY WED. QUIET AND MORE
SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS/WX ARE THEN XPCTED FOR THE MID/LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD INTO MUCH
OF THE REGION THU INTO FRI.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1203 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  64  82  64 /  10  40  40  60
SHOALS        84  63  83  65 /  20  40  40  60
VINEMONT      84  62  81  64 /  10  30  30  60
FAYETTEVILLE  83  61  79  62 /  10  30  50  60
ALBERTVILLE   84  62  81  64 /  10  20  30  60
FORT PAYNE    84  59  80  62 /  10  20  40  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290509 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1209 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING`S ACTIVITY AND NORTH OF THE MCS OVER THE GULF COAST. AN
AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTY
TOWARDS LEE/CHAMBERS COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE CONVECTION WOULD
PROBABLY DEVELOP IF IT WAS GOING TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE
HAS NOT BEEN ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP
THEY WOULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING 2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...OVER 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE...AND 35-
40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...BUT THE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL.

ANY STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT BUT LIFT IS LACKING SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN A DRIER AIR MASS.

32/DAVIS

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE
ISOLATED AND BRIEF. AS WE WORK INTO SATURDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THAT SAID THOUGH RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH MORE OF YOUR TYPICAL HIT OR MISS VARIETY.

THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WORK INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A COOL FRONT WORKS IN. QUESTIONS LIE WITH HOW MUCH AND HOW
OFTEN WILL IT RAIN ON SUNDAY FOR THOSE OUTDOOR EVENTS. THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO THE FRONT STALLS AND WE SEE RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO AND ONE SUPPORTED BY A COUPLE OF MODELS...SHOWS AN MCS MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND STABILIZE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AREAS
NORTH OF I-20 AND DRY THEM OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY BEFORE
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY BOTH SCENARIOS ARE PLAUSIBLE AND WOULD FIT THE CURRENT
PATTERN WE ARE IN SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...WHILE THE RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN HIGH. THE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
EURO WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS CLEARS
IT TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION DONE FOR TONIGHT FOR THIN LINE EARLIER ACROSS I-85
CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA AS SKIES CLEAR WITH MOISTURE LOW LEVELS. TOI WILL BE THE
LOWEST TONIGHT WHERE SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS AND LOW VSBYS ALREADY
THREATENING AND WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AS WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF TILL AFTER THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US 80/I-85 CORRIDOR.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  61  82  64  78 /  10  20  40  60  70
ANNISTON    86  62  83  65  78 /  10  20  30  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  86  65  84  67  79 /  10  20  30  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  86  65  85  66  81 /  20  20  20  50  70
CALERA      85  65  84  66  79 /  10  10  20  50  70
AUBURN      86  65  84  66  79 /  10  10  20  30  50
MONTGOMERY  89  66  87  68  82 /  20  10  20  30  50
TROY        88  64  88  67  82 /  10  10  20  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

32/16/08




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290509 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1209 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING`S ACTIVITY AND NORTH OF THE MCS OVER THE GULF COAST. AN
AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTY
TOWARDS LEE/CHAMBERS COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE CONVECTION WOULD
PROBABLY DEVELOP IF IT WAS GOING TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE
HAS NOT BEEN ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP
THEY WOULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING 2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...OVER 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE...AND 35-
40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...BUT THE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL.

ANY STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT BUT LIFT IS LACKING SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN A DRIER AIR MASS.

32/DAVIS

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE
ISOLATED AND BRIEF. AS WE WORK INTO SATURDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THAT SAID THOUGH RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH MORE OF YOUR TYPICAL HIT OR MISS VARIETY.

THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WORK INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A COOL FRONT WORKS IN. QUESTIONS LIE WITH HOW MUCH AND HOW
OFTEN WILL IT RAIN ON SUNDAY FOR THOSE OUTDOOR EVENTS. THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO THE FRONT STALLS AND WE SEE RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO AND ONE SUPPORTED BY A COUPLE OF MODELS...SHOWS AN MCS MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND STABILIZE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AREAS
NORTH OF I-20 AND DRY THEM OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY BEFORE
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY BOTH SCENARIOS ARE PLAUSIBLE AND WOULD FIT THE CURRENT
PATTERN WE ARE IN SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...WHILE THE RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN HIGH. THE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
EURO WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS CLEARS
IT TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION DONE FOR TONIGHT FOR THIN LINE EARLIER ACROSS I-85
CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA AS SKIES CLEAR WITH MOISTURE LOW LEVELS. TOI WILL BE THE
LOWEST TONIGHT WHERE SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS AND LOW VSBYS ALREADY
THREATENING AND WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AS WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF TILL AFTER THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US 80/I-85 CORRIDOR.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  61  82  64  78 /  10  20  40  60  70
ANNISTON    86  62  83  65  78 /  10  20  30  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  86  65  84  67  79 /  10  20  30  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  86  65  85  66  81 /  20  20  20  50  70
CALERA      85  65  84  66  79 /  10  10  20  50  70
AUBURN      86  65  84  66  79 /  10  10  20  30  50
MONTGOMERY  89  66  87  68  82 /  20  10  20  30  50
TROY        88  64  88  67  82 /  10  10  20  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

32/16/08




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290503
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1203 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 841 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
TEMPS AS OF 01Z HAVE FALLEN FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE MID 80S NOW DOWN
TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS NOT INCREASING AGAIN UNTIL
TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS VERY
WEAKLY DEFINED. AS OF 00Z IT WAS ANALYZED BY WPC TO BE SITTING
DIRECTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. HOWEVER THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS, ONLY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED WITH IT.

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT; JUST A FEW
TWEAKS TO MATCH THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO THE CURRENT TRENDS.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 290455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE CEILING IMPROVES TO MVFR BY MID FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FOG DISSIPATING...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS NEAR MIDDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY MIDDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

UPDATE...UPDATED EARLIER TO REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN IFR CEILING AND FOG DEVELOPING
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS TO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS
AND FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THEN IMPROVE TO A MVFR CEILING BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT...WITH
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...AFTER AN ACTIVE MORNING OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING IMPROVE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
SUSTAINED...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION AND SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE
TO DEEP UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUING FURTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. FOR
FRI MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SHIFTING NE ACROSS
LOWER LA AND INTO MS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING
SOME WEAK FORCING OR LIFT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRI SHIFTING INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NIL.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE MOSTLY DUE TO
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS FRI WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
32/EE

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING PEAK
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
AND TRAILING FRONT MOVING EASTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST. /13

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
COAST MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH END SCATTERED
COVERAGES EXPECTED. COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE PEAK
HEATING PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE MON MORNING NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290141
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
841 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS AS OF 01Z HAVE FALLEN FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE MID 80S NOW DOWN
TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS NOT INCREASING AGAIN UNTIL
TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS VERY
WEAKLY DEFINED. AS OF 00Z IT WAS ANALYZED BY WPC TO BE SITTING
DIRECTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. HOWEVER THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS, ONLY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED WITH IT.

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT; JUST A FEW
TWEAKS TO MATCH THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO THE CURRENT TRENDS.


LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK/DRY CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS KMSL AND SHOULD BE
THRU KHSV BY 01Z. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS CDFNT AS IT MOVES OUT
OF THE TN VALLEY ARND 06Z. HIGH/MID CLOUDS (VFR CEILINGS) WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CWA. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN TAFS ATTM SINCE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT BRINGING IN PCPN AFTER 00Z SATURDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD MOVED
TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND INTO THE UPPER 70S.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF PWAT AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WAS RESULTING IN NO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...AND WILL KEEP IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. THE GFS MODEL ALSO HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE
AN MCS THAT MIGHT SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 12Z SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SCENARIO. WILL HAVE IN A CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON SATURDAY WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION AND WILL HAVE IN HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

A THIRD IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE REGION ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL OUT JUST SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED MORE BY THE ECMWF
MODEL TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
TUESDAY AND EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF TEMPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290029 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
729 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING`S ACTIVITY AND NORTH OF THE MCS OVER THE GULF COAST. AN
AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTY
TOWARDS LEE/CHAMBERS COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE CONVECTION WOULD
PROBABLY DEVELOP IF IT WAS GOING TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE
HAS NOT BEEN ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP
THEY WOULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING 2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...OVER 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE...AND 35-
40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...BUT THE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL.

ANY STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT BUT LIFT IS LACKING SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN A DRIER AIR MASS.

32/DAVIS

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE
ISOLATED AND BRIEF. AS WE WORK INTO SATURDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THAT SAID THOUGH RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH MORE OF YOUR TYPICAL HIT OR MISS VARIETY.

THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WORK INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A COOL FRONT WORKS IN. QUESTIONS LIE WITH HOW MUCH AND HOW
OFTEN WILL IT RAIN ON SUNDAY FOR THOSE OUTDOOR EVENTS. THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO THE FRONT STALLS AND WE SEE RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO AND ONE SUPPORTED BY A COUPLE OF MODELS...SHOWS AN MCS MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND STABILIZE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AREAS
NORTH OF I-20 AND DRY THEM OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY BEFORE
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY BOTH SCENARIOS ARE PLAUSIBLE AND WOULD FIT THE CURRENT
PATTERN WE ARE IN SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...WHILE THE RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN HIGH. THE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
EURO WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS CLEARS
IT TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VERY THIN LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR I-85 CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. PROBABILITY IS LOW THAT ANYTHING WOULD HIT TAFS. WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW BUT MONITOR MGM FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL TAFS BUT MGM/TOI WHERE COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHERE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US 80/I-85 CORRIDOR.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  86  61  82  64 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    60  86  62  83  65 /  10  10  20  30  50
BIRMINGHAM  62  86  65  84  67 /  10  10  20  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  63  86  65  85  66 /  10  20  20  20  50
CALERA      63  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  20  50
AUBURN      64  86  65  84  66 /  20  10  10  20  30
MONTGOMERY  65  89  66  87  68 /  20  20  10  20  30
TROY        65  88  64  88  67 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

32/16/08




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290029 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
729 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING`S ACTIVITY AND NORTH OF THE MCS OVER THE GULF COAST. AN
AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTY
TOWARDS LEE/CHAMBERS COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE CONVECTION WOULD
PROBABLY DEVELOP IF IT WAS GOING TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE
HAS NOT BEEN ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP
THEY WOULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING 2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...OVER 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE...AND 35-
40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...BUT THE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL.

ANY STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT BUT LIFT IS LACKING SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN A DRIER AIR MASS.

32/DAVIS

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE
ISOLATED AND BRIEF. AS WE WORK INTO SATURDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THAT SAID THOUGH RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH MORE OF YOUR TYPICAL HIT OR MISS VARIETY.

THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WORK INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A COOL FRONT WORKS IN. QUESTIONS LIE WITH HOW MUCH AND HOW
OFTEN WILL IT RAIN ON SUNDAY FOR THOSE OUTDOOR EVENTS. THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO THE FRONT STALLS AND WE SEE RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO AND ONE SUPPORTED BY A COUPLE OF MODELS...SHOWS AN MCS MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND STABILIZE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AREAS
NORTH OF I-20 AND DRY THEM OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY BEFORE
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY BOTH SCENARIOS ARE PLAUSIBLE AND WOULD FIT THE CURRENT
PATTERN WE ARE IN SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...WHILE THE RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN HIGH. THE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
EURO WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS CLEARS
IT TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VERY THIN LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR I-85 CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. PROBABILITY IS LOW THAT ANYTHING WOULD HIT TAFS. WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW BUT MONITOR MGM FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL TAFS BUT MGM/TOI WHERE COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHERE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US 80/I-85 CORRIDOR.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  86  61  82  64 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    60  86  62  83  65 /  10  10  20  30  50
BIRMINGHAM  62  86  65  84  67 /  10  10  20  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  63  86  65  85  66 /  10  20  20  20  50
CALERA      63  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  20  50
AUBURN      64  86  65  84  66 /  20  10  10  20  30
MONTGOMERY  65  89  66  87  68 /  20  20  10  20  30
TROY        65  88  64  88  67 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

32/16/08




000
FXUS64 KHUN 282302
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD MOVED
TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND INTO THE UPPER 70S.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF PWAT AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WAS RESULTING IN NO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...AND WILL KEEP IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. THE GFS MODEL ALSO HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE
AN MCS THAT MIGHT SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 12Z SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SCENARIO. WILL HAVE IN A CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON SATURDAY WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION AND WILL HAVE IN HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

A THIRD IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE REGION ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL OUT JUST SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED MORE BY THE ECMWF
MODEL TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
TUESDAY AND EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF TEMPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK/DRY CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS KMSL AND SHOULD BE
THRU KHSV BY 01Z. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS CDFNT AS IT MOVES OUT
OF THE TN VALLEY ARND 06Z. HIGH/MID CLOUDS (VFR CEILINGS) WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CWA. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN TAFS ATTM SINCE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT BRINGING IN PCPN AFTER 00Z SATURDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282250 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
550 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED EARLIER TO REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN IFR CEILING AND FOG DEVELOPING
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS TO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS
AND FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THEN IMPROVE TO A MVFR CEILING BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT...WITH
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...AFTER AN ACTIVE MORNING OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING IMPROVE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
SUSTAINED...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION AND SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE
TO DEEP UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUING FURTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. FOR
FRI MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SHIFTING NE ACROSS
LOWER LA AND INTO MS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING
SOME WEAK FORCING OR LIFT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRI SHIFTING INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NIL.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE MOSTLY DUE TO
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS FRI WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
32/EE

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING PEAK
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
AND TRAILING FRONT MOVING EASTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST. /13

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
COAST MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH END SCATTERED
COVERAGES EXPECTED. COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE PEAK
HEATING PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE MON MORNING NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282109
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...AFTER AN ACTIVE MORNING OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING IMPROVE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
SUSTAINED...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION AND SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE
TO DEEP UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUING FURTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. FOR
FRI MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SHIFTING NE ACROSS
LOWER LA AND INTO MS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING
SOME WEAK FORCING OR LIFT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRI SHIFTING INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NIL.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE MOSTLY DUE TO
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS FRI WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
32/EE


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING PEAK
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
AND TRAILING FRONT MOVING EASTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST. /13


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
COAST MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH END SCATTERED
COVERAGES EXPECTED. COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE PEAK
HEATING PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE MON MORNING NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  85  69  84 /  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   72  83  71  82 /  20  10  10  10
DESTIN      73  81  72  80 /  20  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   66  88  67  86 /  30  30  10  20
WAYNESBORO  67  87  66  83 /  20  30  10  30
CAMDEN      67  87  67  84 /  20  30  10  20
CRESTVIEW   69  88  68  86 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KBMX 282015
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING`S ACTIVITY AND NORTH OF THE MCS OVER THE GULF COAST. AN
AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTY
TOWARDS LEE/CHAMBERS COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE CONVECTION WOULD
PROBABLY DEVELOP IF IT WAS GOING TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE
HAS NOT BEEN ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP
THEY WOULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING 2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...OVER 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE...AND 35-
40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...BUT THE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL.

ANY STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT BUT LIFT IS LACKING SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF
THE FRONT IN A DRIER AIR MASS.

32/DAVIS

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE
ISOLATED AND BRIEF. AS WE WORK INTO SATURDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THAT SAID THOUGH RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH MORE OF YOUR TYPICAL HIT OR MISS VARIETY.

THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WORK INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A COOL FRONT WORKS IN. QUESTIONS LIE WITH HOW MUCH AND HOW
OFTEN WILL IT RAIN ON SUNDAY FOR THOSE OUTDOOR EVENTS. THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO THE FRONT STALLS AND WE SEE RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO AND ONE SUPPORTED BY A COUPLE OF MODELS...SHOWS AN MCS MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND STABILIZE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AREAS
NORTH OF I-20 AND DRY THEM OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY BEFORE
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY BOTH SCENARIOS ARE PLAUSIBLE AND WOULD FIT THE CURRENT
PATTERN WE ARE IN SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...WHILE THE RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN HIGH. THE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
EURO WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS CLEARS
IT TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAS LOWERED BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCTS MENTION AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WITH CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION ELSEWHERE. LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT WILL BE AT MGM/TOI AND WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE IFR
THERE. UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PUSH RESULTS IN CONFIDENCE BEING
TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY FOG AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US 80/I-85 CORRIDOR.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  86  61  82  64 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    60  86  62  83  65 /  10  10  20  30  50
BIRMINGHAM  62  86  65  84  67 /  10  10  20  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  63  86  65  85  66 /  10  20  20  20  50
CALERA      63  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  20  50
AUBURN      64  86  65  84  66 /  20  10   0  20  30
MONTGOMERY  65  89  66  87  68 /  20  20   0  20  30
TROY        65  88  64  88  67 /  20  20   0  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 282015
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING`S ACTIVITY AND NORTH OF THE MCS OVER THE GULF COAST. AN
AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTY
TOWARDS LEE/CHAMBERS COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE CONVECTION WOULD
PROBABLY DEVELOP IF IT WAS GOING TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE
HAS NOT BEEN ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP
THEY WOULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING 2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...OVER 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE...AND 35-
40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...BUT THE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL.

ANY STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT BUT LIFT IS LACKING SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF
THE FRONT IN A DRIER AIR MASS.

32/DAVIS

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE
ISOLATED AND BRIEF. AS WE WORK INTO SATURDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THAT SAID THOUGH RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH MORE OF YOUR TYPICAL HIT OR MISS VARIETY.

THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WORK INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A COOL FRONT WORKS IN. QUESTIONS LIE WITH HOW MUCH AND HOW
OFTEN WILL IT RAIN ON SUNDAY FOR THOSE OUTDOOR EVENTS. THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO THE FRONT STALLS AND WE SEE RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO AND ONE SUPPORTED BY A COUPLE OF MODELS...SHOWS AN MCS MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND STABILIZE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AREAS
NORTH OF I-20 AND DRY THEM OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY BEFORE
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY BOTH SCENARIOS ARE PLAUSIBLE AND WOULD FIT THE CURRENT
PATTERN WE ARE IN SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...WHILE THE RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN HIGH. THE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
EURO WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS CLEARS
IT TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAS LOWERED BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCTS MENTION AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WITH CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION ELSEWHERE. LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT WILL BE AT MGM/TOI AND WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE IFR
THERE. UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PUSH RESULTS IN CONFIDENCE BEING
TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY FOG AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US 80/I-85 CORRIDOR.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  86  61  82  64 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    60  86  62  83  65 /  10  10  20  30  50
BIRMINGHAM  62  86  65  84  67 /  10  10  20  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  63  86  65  85  66 /  10  20  20  20  50
CALERA      63  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  20  50
AUBURN      64  86  65  84  66 /  20  10   0  20  30
MONTGOMERY  65  89  66  87  68 /  20  20   0  20  30
TROY        65  88  64  88  67 /  20  20   0  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281922
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
222 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD MOVED
TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND INTO THE UPPER 70S.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF PWAT AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WAS RESULTING IN NO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...AND WILL KEEP IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. THE GFS MODEL ALSO HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE
AN MCS THAT MIGHT SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 12Z SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SCENARIO. WILL HAVE IN A CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON SATURDAY WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION AND WILL HAVE IN HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

A THIRD IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE REGION ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL OUT JUST SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED MORE BY THE ECMWF
MODEL TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
TUESDAY AND EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF TEMPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1219 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING NW AL AND WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT FEW/SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3000FT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO GENERATE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AND
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 02Z
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR A W/SW
DIRECTION THEN BECOME LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  85  63  82 /  10  10  30  40
SHOALS        58  86  63  83 /  10  10  40  40
VINEMONT      58  84  62  81 /  10  10  30  40
FAYETTEVILLE  58  83  61  78 /  10  10  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   59  84  62  81 /  10  10  20  40
FORT PAYNE    55  84  59  80 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281922
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
222 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD MOVED
TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND INTO THE UPPER 70S.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF PWAT AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WAS RESULTING IN NO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...AND WILL KEEP IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. THE GFS MODEL ALSO HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE
AN MCS THAT MIGHT SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 12Z SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SCENARIO. WILL HAVE IN A CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON SATURDAY WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION AND WILL HAVE IN HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

A THIRD IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE REGION ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL OUT JUST SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED MORE BY THE ECMWF
MODEL TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
TUESDAY AND EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF TEMPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1219 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING NW AL AND WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT FEW/SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3000FT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO GENERATE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AND
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 02Z
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR A W/SW
DIRECTION THEN BECOME LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  85  63  82 /  10  10  30  40
SHOALS        58  86  63  83 /  10  10  40  40
VINEMONT      58  84  62  81 /  10  10  30  40
FAYETTEVILLE  58  83  61  78 /  10  10  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   59  84  62  81 /  10  10  20  40
FORT PAYNE    55  84  59  80 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1249 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PIKE
AND BARBOUR COUNTIES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS THIS
MORNING BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG AT THE MOMENT. A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN MISSISSIPPI WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S BEHIND IT. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ARE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THEY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN MCS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA...WHILE A REMNANT STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GULF COAST MCS AND REMNANT STRATUS DECK DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT THAT FORECAST INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE
REALIZED...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AND A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO PLAY A ROLE.
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD ALSO AID DEVELOPMENT...BUT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS LIMITED. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO FOR ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-35 KTS...AND
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND NOT
ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE AIR MASS IS DRIER.
ALSO DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASED
THEM IN THE NORTHWEST BASED ON CLOUDCOVER TRENDS.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAS LOWERED BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCTS MENTION AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WITH CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION ELSEWHERE. LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT WILL BE AT MGM/TOI AND WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE IFR
THERE. UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PUSH RESULTS IN CONFIDENCE BEING
TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY FOG AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 415 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY HAS IN FACT MATERIALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT
SAW THE MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. LOW STRATUS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS MANY AREAS AS WELL.
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE, AND WE`LL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER ON
THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THAT ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE THIS MORNING IS PROJECTING SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST,
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS
EASTERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE WESTERLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST, WE AREN`T EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HAVE A LOT OF
NORTHWARD PUSH. THEREFORE, HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. 80/I-85 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

LOOKING AT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TODAY, THINKING REMAINS THE SAME
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE OLD SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON, THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.
AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY VALUES TO WELL OVER 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA, A LIMITED CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, AS WE`LL SEE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT. THOSE INGREDIENTS WILL HELP PRODUCE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO INDICATING LOTS
OF DRY AIR ALOFT, WHICH CAN LEAD TO MORE OF A DAMAGING-STRAIGHT
LINE WIND THREAT. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES ARE BEING ADVERTISED
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. WE AREN`T LOOKING AT ANY THREAT OF
TORNADOES, WITH 0-1KM SHEAR PROFILES REMAINING WEAK AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL. MOST ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AND THE OLD SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AROUND THE I-
20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS BACK TO
OUR WEST, WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY PUSHING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

56/GDG

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING AND A CLOSED LOW SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND THE BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END. IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW SYSTEM...THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE TO OUR WEST...AND WILL KEEP POPS ONLY IN THE WEST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW BETTER LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH A LLJ MAX AND PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT LOW...AND MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO 1000J/KG+ DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED...BUT THUNDER/LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH...AND QUICKLY
BRINGS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA ON THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH`S HEELS. THIS WOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WET ECMWF AND DRY GFS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  86  61  82  64 /  10  10  10  40  50
ANNISTON    61  86  62  83  65 /  10  10   0  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  63  86  65  84  67 /  10  10  20  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  64  86  65  85  66 /  10  20  20  20  50
CALERA      63  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      64  86  65  84  66 /  20  10   0  20  30
MONTGOMERY  66  89  66  87  68 /  30  20   0  20  30
TROY        65  88  64  88  67 /  30  20   0  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 281746 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1246 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
29.12Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 29.18Z. EXPECT
LOWER CIGS IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING IN MOSTLY FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING...INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY
MID MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MOBILE METRO AREA BETWEEN
13Z AND 15Z WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CLOUD RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES IN THE VLIFR CATEGORY IN THAT TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS
ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA...BUT SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
PRIOR TO THE STORMS AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PENSACOLA
METRO AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BUT NOT BE AS STRONG...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR TO BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD.

THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM SUNRISE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PROLIFIC RAIN RATE PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
TWO TO FIVE INCHES. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH...LOCALIZED AREAS AFFECTED BY SEVERAL
OF THESE PASSING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO
TO FOUR INCHES RESULTING MAINLY IN NUISANCE FLOODING...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED INCIDENCE OF FLASH FLOODING WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S...WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
65 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. /22

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE PIVOTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS CAUSES A NET AMPLIFICATION OF A
DOWNSTREAM HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...LOOK TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
BETWEEN A WEAK PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
THE PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA
TO CENTRAL GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...A NARROW
STRIP OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES) IS ALIGNED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH PROGRESSES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE EVOLVING HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH
THIS MOISTURE AND AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY WHILE FLOW OFF THE GULF ASCENDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REDEVELOPS FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY. SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FOG PROBABILITIES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL MAKE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.
FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN
US...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SEES MORE OF A HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE AREA. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
DYNAMICS EXPANDING EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS...AVAILABILITY OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND DECREASING STABILITY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON STORMS IS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS AT TIMES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WEAK WIND PROFILES AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS WILL KEEP THE THREAT VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH OF THE COAST WITH LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER 70S COAST.
/10

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AN ACTIVE HIGH LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COMPLICATES THE RAINFALL
FORECAST IN THE OUTLOOK IS A SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH BEGINS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE COAST BY TUESDAY. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE THE RAIN CHANCES. LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS TRENDING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /10

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN LARGELY INTACT AS A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
/22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281719
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
EVEN WITH THE LINGERING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE MID 70S. THE NICE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE DESPITE THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED
THROUGH MS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT PASSES...DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION AND DECREASES CLOUD
COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO
ACCOMMODATE CURRENT SATELLITE DATA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING NW AL AND WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT FEW/SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3000FT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO GENERATE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AND
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 02Z
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR A W/SW
DIRECTION THEN BECOME LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281719
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
EVEN WITH THE LINGERING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE MID 70S. THE NICE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE DESPITE THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED
THROUGH MS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT PASSES...DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION AND DECREASES CLOUD
COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO
ACCOMMODATE CURRENT SATELLITE DATA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING NW AL AND WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT FEW/SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3000FT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO GENERATE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AND
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 02Z
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR A W/SW
DIRECTION THEN BECOME LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281604
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1104 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PIKE
AND BARBOUR COUNTIES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS THIS
MORNING BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG AT THE MOMENT. A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN MISSISSIPPI WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S BEHIND IT. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ARE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THEY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AN MCS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA...WHILE A REMNANT STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GULF COAST MCS AND REMNANT STRATUS DECK DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT THAT FORECAST INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE
REALIZED...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AND A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO PLAY A ROLE.
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD ALSO AID DEVELOPMENT...BUT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS LIMITED. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO FOR ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-35 KTS...AND
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND NOT
ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE AIR MASS IS DRIER.
ALSO DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASED
THEM IN THE NORTHWEST BASED ON CLOUDCOVER TRENDS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING FOR MANY
TERMINAL SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WILL AFFECT KTOI THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
VCTS WAS ADDED AT KTOI, WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY AFFECTING KMGM AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE
MORNING FOR NORTHERN SITES WITH NO MENTION OF ANY RAINFALL.
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN AT KMGM AND KTOI AFTER 06Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 415 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY HAS IN FACT MATERIALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT
SAW THE MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. LOW STRATUS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS MANY AREAS AS WELL.
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE, AND WE`LL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER ON
THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THAT ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE THIS MORNING IS PROJECTING SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST,
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS
EASTERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE WESTERLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST, WE AREN`T EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HAVE A LOT OF
NORTHWARD PUSH. THEREFORE, HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. 80/I-85 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

LOOKING AT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TODAY, THINKING REMAINS THE SAME
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE OLD SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON, THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.
AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY VALUES TO WELL OVER 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA, A LIMITED CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, AS WE`LL SEE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT. THOSE INGREDIENTS WILL HELP PRODUCE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO INDICATING LOTS
OF DRY AIR ALOFT, WHICH CAN LEAD TO MORE OF A DAMAGING-STRAIGHT
LINE WIND THREAT. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES ARE BEING ADVERTISED
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. WE AREN`T LOOKING AT ANY THREAT OF
TORNADOES, WITH 0-1KM SHEAR PROFILES REMAINING WEAK AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL. MOST ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AND THE OLD SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AROUND THE I-
20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS BACK TO
OUR WEST, WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY PUSHING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

56/GDG

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING AND A CLOSED LOW SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND THE BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END. IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW SYSTEM...THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE TO OUR WEST...AND WILL KEEP POPS ONLY IN THE WEST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW BETTER LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH A LLJ MAX AND PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT LOW...AND MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO 1000J/KG+ DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED...BUT THUNDER/LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH...AND QUICKLY
BRINGS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA ON THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH`S HEELS. THIS WOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WET ECMWF AND DRY GFS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     83  59  86  61  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    82  61  86  62  83 /  20  10  10   0  30
BIRMINGHAM  85  63  86  65  84 /  20  10  10  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  85  64  86  65  85 /  20  10  20  20  20
CALERA      82  63  85  65  84 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      79  64  86  65  84 /  50  20  10   0  20
MONTGOMERY  82  66  89  66  87 /  70  20  20   0  20
TROY        81  65  88  64  88 /  70  30  20   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281532 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
TODAYS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EVEN WITH THE LINGERING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE MID 70S. THE NICE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE DESPITE THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED
THROUGH MS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT PASSES...DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION AND DECREASES CLOUD
COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO
ACCOMMODATE CURRENT SATELLITE DATA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
BROKEN/OVERCAST MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE START OF THIS
TAF...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE 15/16Z TIMEFRAME...AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING HELP DISSIPATE THE LOWER CLOUDS. VFR
WEATHER...WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...A
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG/MIST LATE IN THE TAF. DID NOT ADD FOG IN THIS
ISSUANCE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281532 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
TODAYS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EVEN WITH THE LINGERING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE MID 70S. THE NICE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE DESPITE THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED
THROUGH MS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT PASSES...DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION AND DECREASES CLOUD
COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO
ACCOMMODATE CURRENT SATELLITE DATA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
BROKEN/OVERCAST MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE START OF THIS
TAF...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE 15/16Z TIMEFRAME...AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING HELP DISSIPATE THE LOWER CLOUDS. VFR
WEATHER...WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...A
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG/MIST LATE IN THE TAF. DID NOT ADD FOG IN THIS
ISSUANCE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281242
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
742 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY HAS IN FACT MATERIALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT
SAW THE MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. LOW STRATUS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS MANY AREAS AS WELL.
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE, AND WE`LL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER ON
THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THAT ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE THIS MORNING IS PROJECTING SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST,
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS
EASTERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE WESTERLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST, WE AREN`T EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HAVE A LOT OF
NORTHWARD PUSH. THEREFORE, HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. 80/I-85 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

LOOKING AT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TODAY, THINKING REMAINS THE SAME
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE OLD SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON, THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.
AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY VALUES TO WELL OVER 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA, A LIMITED CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, AS WE`LL SEE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT. THOSE INGREDIENTS WILL HELP PRODUCE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO INDICATING LOTS
OF DRY AIR ALOFT, WHICH CAN LEAD TO MORE OF A DAMAGING-STRAIGHT
LINE WIND THREAT. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES ARE BEING ADVERTISED
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. WE AREN`T LOOKING AT ANY THREAT OF
TORNADOES, WITH 0-1KM SHEAR PROFILES REMAINING WEAK AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL. MOST ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AND THE OLD SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AROUND THE I-
20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS BACK TO
OUR WEST, WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY PUSHING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

56/GDG

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING AND A CLOSED LOW SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND THE BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END. IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW SYSTEM...THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE TO OUR WEST...AND WILL KEEP POPS ONLY IN THE WEST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW BETTER LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH A LLJ MAX AND PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT LOW...AND MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO 1000J/KG+ DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED...BUT THUNDER/LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH...AND QUICKLY
BRINGS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA ON THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH`S HEELS. THIS WOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WET ECMWF AND DRY GFS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING FOR MANY
TERMINAL SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WILL AFFECT KTOI THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
VCTS WAS ADDED AT KTOI, WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY AFFECTING KMGM AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE
MORNING FOR NORTHERN SITES WITH NO MENTION OF ANY RAINFALL.
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN AT KMGM AND KTOI AFTER 06Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  59  86  61  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    81  61  86  62  83 /  20  10  10   0  30
BIRMINGHAM  83  63  86  65  84 /  20  10  10  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  84  64  86  65  85 /  20  10  20  20  20
CALERA      82  63  85  65  84 /  30  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      80  64  86  65  84 /  50  20  10   0  20
MONTGOMERY  83  66  89  66  87 /  70  20  20   0  20
TROY        83  65  88  64  88 /  70  30  20   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 281214 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
714 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MOBILE METRO AREA BETWEEN
13Z AND 15Z WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CLOUD RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES IN THE VLIFR CATEGORY IN THAT TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS
ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA...BUT SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
PRIOR TO THE STORMS AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PENSACOLA
METRO AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BUT NOT BE AS STRONG...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR TO BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD.

THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM SUNRISE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PROLIFIC RAIN RATE PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
TWO TO FIVE INCHES. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH...LOCALIZED AREAS AFFECTED BY SEVERAL
OF THESE PASSING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO
TO FOUR INCHES RESULTING MAINLY IN NUISANCE FLOODING...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED INCIDENCE OF FLASH FLOODING WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S...WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
65 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. /22

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE PIVOTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS CAUSES A NET AMPLIFICATION OF A
DOWNSTREAM HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...LOOK TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
BETWEEN A WEAK PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
THE PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA
TO CENTRAL GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...A NARROW
STRIP OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES) IS ALIGNED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH PROGRESSES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE EVOLVING HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH
THIS MOISTURE AND AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY WHILE FLOW OFF THE GULF ASCENDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REDEVELOPS FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY. SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FOG PROBABILITIES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL MAKE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.
FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN
US...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SEES MORE OF A HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE AREA. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
DYNAMICS EXPANDING EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS...AVAILABILITY OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND DECREASING STABILITY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON STORMS IS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS AT TIMES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WEAK WIND PROFILES AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS WILL KEEP THE THREAT VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH OF THE COAST WITH LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER 70S COAST.
/10

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AN ACTIVE HIGH LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COMPLICATES THE RAINFALL
FORECAST IN THE OUTLOOK IS A SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH BEGINS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE COAST BY TUESDAY. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE THE RAIN CHANCES. LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS TRENDING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /10

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN LARGELY INTACT AS A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
/22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281144 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
644 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
QUIET WX CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
THU MORNING...WITH WHAT`S LEFT OF THE PRECIP NOW WELL TO THE N OF
THE AREA INTO KY/FAR ERN TN. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL W OF THE
MS RIVER...ALTHOUGH LITTLE/IF ANY SENSIBLE WX IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS
NEXT BOUNDARY. LATEST MODEL SUITES PRETTY MUCH BRING THE FRONT INTO
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW
CLOUDS. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL JUST TO THE S OF THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING...AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER THE SRN
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST TRANSLATE INTO QUIET WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF FRI.

UNFORTUNATELY THE QUIET WX IS NOT XPCTED TO LAST AS THE WEEKEND
PERIOD APPROACHES...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE MID PLAINS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO TRACK EWD AND THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS MORE TOWARD
THE SW. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EWD...WITH THE
BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUN. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
THOUGH WILL BE INCREASING WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS
EARLY AS SAT...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BECOMING NUM BY
SAT EVENING. RAINFALL COULD EASILY BE HEAVY WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE FRONT EXITING THE AREA TO THE
E/SE LATE SUN INTO MON...WITH RAINFALL TAPERING OFF SOME FROM THE W.
HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM MAY
TRANSLATE INTO A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AND TUE...BEFORE
RAINFALL EXITS COMPLETELY BY WED.

QUIET AND MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS ARE THEN XPCTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES ON WED...BEFORE TRANSLATING E ON THU.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
BROKEN/OVERCAST MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE START OF THIS
TAF...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE 15/16Z TIMEFRAME...AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING HELP DISSIPATE THE LOWER CLOUDS. VFR
WEATHER...WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...A
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG/MIST LATE IN THE TAF. DID NOT ADD FOG IN THIS
ISSUANCE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 280934
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
434 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD.

THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM SUNRISE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PROLIFIC RAIN RATE PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
TWO TO FIVE INCHES. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH...LOCALIZED AREAS AFFECTED BY SEVERAL
OF THESE PASSING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO
TO FOUR INCHES RESULTING MAINLY IN NUISANCE FLOODING...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED INCIDENCE OF FLASH FLOODING WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S...WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
65 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. /22

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE PIVOTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS CAUSES A NET AMPLIFICATION OF A
DOWNSTREAM HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...LOOK TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
BETWEEN A WEAK PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
THE PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA
TO CENTRAL GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...A NARROW
STRIP OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES) IS ALIGNED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH PROGRESSES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE EVOLVING HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH
THIS MOISTURE AND AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY WHILE FLOW OFF THE GULF ASCENDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REDEVELOPS FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY. SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FOG PROBABILITIES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL MAKE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.
FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN
US...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SEES MORE OF A HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE AREA. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
DYNAMICS EXPANDING EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS...AVAILABILITY OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND DECREASING STABILITY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON STORMS IS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS AT TIMES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WEAK WIND PROFILES AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS WILL KEEP THE THREAT VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH OF THE COAST WITH LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER 70S COAST.
/10

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AN ACTIVE HIGH LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COMPLICATES THE RAINFALL
FORECAST IN THE OUTLOOK IS A SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH BEGINS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE COAST BY TUESDAY. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE THE RAIN CHANCES. LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS TRENDING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /10

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN LARGELY INTACT AS A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
/22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  68  87  68 /  70  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   80  71  85  71 /  60  20  10  10
DESTIN      79  73  82  72 /  60  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   82  65  89  66 /  70  30  20  10
WAYNESBORO  83  65  88  65 /  60  20  30  10
CAMDEN      82  66  88  66 /  60  20  30  10
CRESTVIEW   83  67  89  66 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280915
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
415 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY HAS IN FACT MATERIALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT
SAW THE MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. LOW STRATUS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS MANY AREAS AS WELL.
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE, AND WE`LL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER ON
THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THAT ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE THIS MORNING IS PROJECTING SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST,
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS
EASTERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE WESTERLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST, WE AREN`T EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HAVE A LOT OF
NORTHWARD PUSH. THEREFORE, HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. 80/I-85 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

LOOKING AT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TODAY, THINKING REMAINS THE SAME
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE OLD SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON, THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.
AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY VALUES TO WELL OVER 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA, A LIMITED CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, AS WE`LL SEE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT. THOSE INGREDIENTS WILL HELP PRODUCE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO INDICATING LOTS
OF DRY AIR ALOFT, WHICH CAN LEAD TO MORE OF A DAMAGING-STRAIGHT
LINE WIND THREAT. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES ARE BEING ADVERTISED
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. WE AREN`T LOOKING AT ANY THREAT OF
TORNADOES, WITH 0-1KM SHEAR PROFILES REMAINING WEAK AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL. MOST ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AND THE OLD SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AROUND THE I-
20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS BACK TO
OUR WEST, WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY PUSHING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

56/GDG

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING AND A CLOSED LOW SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND THE BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END. IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW SYSTEM...THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE TO OUR WEST...AND WILL KEEP POPS ONLY IN THE WEST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW BETTER LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH A LLJ MAX AND PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT LOW...AND MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO 1000J/KG+ DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED...BUT THUNDER/LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH...AND QUICKLY
BRINGS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA ON THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH`S HEELS. THIS WOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WET ECMWF AND DRY GFS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...WE CAN START TO GET A
GLIMPSE OF WHAT EXTENT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN AND SPREAD
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERNIGHT IN THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL RAIN...BUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR LEVEL CLOUDS. TIMING AT EACH AIRPORT IS STILL A
BIT IFFY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD GENERALLY BE FROM SOUTH
AND WEST TO NORTH AND EAST.

I WENT WITH A RAIN FREE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS
WELL. THERE`S BOUND TO BE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MY CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUITE LOW. IF STORMS NEED
TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST...IT WOULD PROBABLY EVENTUALLY BE AT
MGM AND TOI.

/61/


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  59  86  61  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    81  61  86  62  83 /  20  10  10   0  30
BIRMINGHAM  83  63  86  65  84 /  20  10  10  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  84  64  86  65  85 /  20  10  20  20  20
CALERA      82  63  85  65  84 /  30  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      80  64  86  65  84 /  50  20  10   0  20
MONTGOMERY  83  66  89  66  87 /  50  20  20   0  20
TROY        83  65  88  64  88 /  50  30  20   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 280810
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WX CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
THU MORNING...WITH WHAT`S LEFT OF THE PRECIP NOW WELL TO THE N OF
THE AREA INTO KY/FAR ERN TN. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL W OF THE
MS RIVER...ALTHOUGH LITTLE/IF ANY SENSIBLE WX IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS
NEXT BOUNDARY. LATEST MODEL SUITES PRETTY MUCH BRING THE FRONT INTO
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW
CLOUDS. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL JUST TO THE S OF THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING...AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER THE SRN
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST TRANSLATE INTO QUIET WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF FRI.

UNFORTUNATELY THE QUIET WX IS NOT XPCTED TO LAST AS THE WEEKEND
PERIOD APPROACHES...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE MID PLAINS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO TRACK EWD AND THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS MORE TOWARD
THE SW. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EWD...WITH THE
BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUN. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
THOUGH WILL BE INCREASING WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS
EARLY AS SAT...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BECOMING NUM BY
SAT EVENING. RAINFALL COULD EASILY BE HEAVY WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE FRONT EXITING THE AREA TO THE
E/SE LATE SUN INTO MON...WITH RAINFALL TAPERING OFF SOME FROM THE W.
HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM MAY
TRANSLATE INTO A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AND TUE...BEFORE
RAINFALL EXITS COMPLETELY BY WED.

QUIET AND MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS ARE THEN XPCTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES ON WED...BEFORE TRANSLATING E ON THU.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1200 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING NOW BUT MANY FORECAST MODELS ARE
POINTING TOWARDS LOW CLOUD AND/OR FOG REDEVELOPMENT BY 09Z OVER BOTH
TAF SITES. AM NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME SO RIGHT NOW
WILL HANDLE WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER VIS WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS
AROUND 2KFT STAYING NEAR KMSL WHERE SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT TO
THE EAST AS OF 05Z. AMENDMENTS AND UPDATES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    83  60  85  63 /  10  10  10  30
SHOALS        84  58  86  63 /  10  10  10  40
VINEMONT      82  58  84  62 /  10  10  10  30
FAYETTEVILLE  81  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   81  59  84  62 /  10  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    82  55  84  59 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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