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000
FXUS64 KHUN 020231 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
931 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THUNDER REMOVED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH
LOWERING MORNING LOWS SAT A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A SFC TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
EXTREME ERN TN SWD INTO FAR NE AL. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MOD SHOWERS...WITH THE ABSENCE OF BETTER UPPER
FORCING AND BUOYANT ENERGY HELPING TO OFFSET THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
TSTMS. THERE`S LITTLE TO INDICATE THIS TREND CHANGING HEADING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH ANY HELP GAINED FROM DAYTIME HEATING GONE.
TEMP TRENDS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S
RANGE...ALTHOUGH WITH SFC WINDS DECOUPLED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND
CLOUD COVER RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER ALTITUDES...TEMPS GOING PAST
MIDNIGHT SHOULD AGAIN LOWER INTO THE 60S. WITH THIS SAID...THUNDER
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH ANY LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES IN THE ISO CAT...AND EARLY MORNING TEMPS SAT LOWERED
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST WX TRENDS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 643 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...LINGERING WEAK CONVECTION ALONG A SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS ERN TN INTO NE AL...CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEAR THE
KHSV TERMINAL. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO VFR CONDS FOR THE TWO MAIN
AIRPORTS AT LEAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT SOME -BR OR BRIEF/TEMPO MVFR VIS DEVELOPING GOING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS SAT...AND THIS IS REFLECTED FOR A FEW HRS IN THE TAF
PRODUCTS. SCT CONVECTION OR SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN XPCTED TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO A CONTINUED PRESENCE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING
EWD ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
TIMING/PLACEMENT WILL PROVE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF
THESE PASSING WAVES.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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000
FXUS64 KBMX 020227
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST OVER CHEROKEE COUNTY. WEAK
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT SO A LIGHT SHOWER
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT BUMP UP ON
THE LOWS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TREND IN THE OBS...LOTS OF CLOUDS
STILL AROUND. LOWS 66 TO 72. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY AND MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHWRS OVER MISSISSIPPI HAVE
BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA AND DISSIPATING. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH PCPN OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO A TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER
LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS TROF WILL
PROVIDE FOR SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER
10Z. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO TROF AXIS. THERE IS A BIG RANGE OF
FORECAST CIG HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MODELS. THE
NAM MODEL SHOWS IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BY 12Z. CLIMATOLOGY
DOES NOT FAVOR IFR CIGS WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
WILL KEEP CIGS ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE DUE TO WIND FLOW AND CLOUDS. CIGS
WILL RISE SLOWLY AFTER 14Z WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING
MVFR CIGS BY 18Z. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PCPN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS.

58/ROSE


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 020227
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST OVER CHEROKEE COUNTY. WEAK
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT SO A LIGHT SHOWER
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT BUMP UP ON
THE LOWS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TREND IN THE OBS...LOTS OF CLOUDS
STILL AROUND. LOWS 66 TO 72. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY AND MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHWRS OVER MISSISSIPPI HAVE
BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA AND DISSIPATING. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH PCPN OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO A TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER
LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS TROF WILL
PROVIDE FOR SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER
10Z. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO TROF AXIS. THERE IS A BIG RANGE OF
FORECAST CIG HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MODELS. THE
NAM MODEL SHOWS IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BY 12Z. CLIMATOLOGY
DOES NOT FAVOR IFR CIGS WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
WILL KEEP CIGS ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE DUE TO WIND FLOW AND CLOUDS. CIGS
WILL RISE SLOWLY AFTER 14Z WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING
MVFR CIGS BY 18Z. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PCPN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS.

58/ROSE


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 020227
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST OVER CHEROKEE COUNTY. WEAK
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT SO A LIGHT SHOWER
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT BUMP UP ON
THE LOWS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TREND IN THE OBS...LOTS OF CLOUDS
STILL AROUND. LOWS 66 TO 72. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY AND MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHWRS OVER MISSISSIPPI HAVE
BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA AND DISSIPATING. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH PCPN OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO A TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER
LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS TROF WILL
PROVIDE FOR SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER
10Z. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO TROF AXIS. THERE IS A BIG RANGE OF
FORECAST CIG HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MODELS. THE
NAM MODEL SHOWS IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BY 12Z. CLIMATOLOGY
DOES NOT FAVOR IFR CIGS WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
WILL KEEP CIGS ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE DUE TO WIND FLOW AND CLOUDS. CIGS
WILL RISE SLOWLY AFTER 14Z WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING
MVFR CIGS BY 18Z. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PCPN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS.

58/ROSE


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 020227
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST OVER CHEROKEE COUNTY. WEAK
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT SO A LIGHT SHOWER
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT BUMP UP ON
THE LOWS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TREND IN THE OBS...LOTS OF CLOUDS
STILL AROUND. LOWS 66 TO 72. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY AND MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHWRS OVER MISSISSIPPI HAVE
BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA AND DISSIPATING. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH PCPN OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO A TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER
LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS TROF WILL
PROVIDE FOR SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER
10Z. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO TROF AXIS. THERE IS A BIG RANGE OF
FORECAST CIG HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MODELS. THE
NAM MODEL SHOWS IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BY 12Z. CLIMATOLOGY
DOES NOT FAVOR IFR CIGS WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
WILL KEEP CIGS ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE DUE TO WIND FLOW AND CLOUDS. CIGS
WILL RISE SLOWLY AFTER 14Z WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING
MVFR CIGS BY 18Z. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PCPN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS.

58/ROSE


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 012343 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
643 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND EMBEDDED UNDULATIONS WILL BE
PUSHING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER SIDE WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE
NE/MO SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. DID KEEP AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY ALREADY
OCCURRING, BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER NE AL. A GRADIENT IN TSRA COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS AND LIFT FOCUSED MAINLY OVER NE AL TO
W CENTRAL AL. THUS, INTRODUCED THE GRADIENT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FROM NW TO SE WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE SE SIDE OF THE CWA (DEKALB,
MARSHALL, CULLMAN COUNTIES) MAINLY FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH SBCAPES BTWN 500-700 J/KG
(UP TO 1000 J/KG ON NAM) BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS EVIDENCE OF AN ADDITIONAL CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS AN
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, BUT HAVE ONLY KEPT LOW END ISOLATED TO SCT
THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAINLY ON SAT NIGHT. THE VERTICAL PROFILE
APPEARS TO DRY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE S AND SE OF THE TN VALLEY. DRY AIR ADVECTION
DOES LOOK POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK SFC FRONT
MEANDERS OVER THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, AM NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED
THAT THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP QUITE AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, AND THIS LOOKS SHORT-LIVED. NEVERTHELESS, WITH
THE UPPER NW FLOW INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN, COULD SEE
SOME MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN TRANSITION WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LESS
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE GFS
SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. FOR
NOW, HAVE LEFT THIS TIME PERIOD DRY AND RETAINED CLIMO SCHC POPS ON
THU/FRI WITH A HINT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
IN ADDITION, MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED BUT MAINLY KEPT CLIMO LOW 90S AS HIGHS AND MID TO UPPER
60S AS LOWS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...LINGERING WEAK CONVECTION ALONG A SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS ERN TN INTO NE AL...CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEAR THE
KHSV TERMINAL. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO VFR CONDS FOR THE TWO MAIN
AIRPORTS AT LEAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT SOME -BR OR BRIEF/TEMPO MVFR VIS DEVELOPING GOING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS SAT...AND THIS IS REFLECTED FOR A FEW HRS IN THE TAF
PRODUCTS. SCT CONVECTION OR SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN XPCTED TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO A CONTINUED PRESENCE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING
EWD ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
TIMING/PLACEMENT WILL PROVE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF
THESE PASSING WAVES.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 012318
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
618 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
RAIN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW
HAVE MOVED SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT HAVE STRUGGLED TO ENTER ALABAMA. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO A
RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR CENTERED AT 750 MB PER THIS MORNING`S
KBMX SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY 20 POPS IN FOR TONIGHT WITH
THAT SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OVERALL NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERN CONUS SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A UPPER TROUGH. DAILY RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WEAK PERTURBATIONS
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AT THE SURFACE. CONTINUED THE RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. DID REMOVE THE
LIKELY POPS (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) BOTH DAYS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THOUGH...AS FORCING MECHANISMS TO FIRE
CONVECTION REMAIN HARD TO PICK OUT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...
WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
INCREASING AGAIN AROUND NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THEY SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER.

77/GLEASON


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY AND MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHWRS OVER MISSISSIPPI HAVE
BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA AND DISSIPATING. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH PCPN OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO A TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER
LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS TROF WILL
PROVIDE FOR SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER
10Z. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO TROF AXIS. THERE IS A BIG RANGE OF
FORECAST CIG HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MODELS. THE
NAM MODEL SHOWS IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BY 12Z. CLIMATOLOGY
DOES NOT FAVOR IFR CIGS WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
WILL KEEP CIGS ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE DUE TO WIND FLOW AND CLOUDS. CIGS
WILL RISE SLOWLY AFTER 14Z WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING
MVFR CIGS BY 18Z. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PCPN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  86  67  86  68 /  20  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    68  85  67  86  69 /  20  50  30  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  86  69  88  70 /  20  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  69  87  69  90  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
CALERA      69  86  70  87  71 /  20  50  30  40  30
AUBURN      69  86  70  85  70 /  20  50  30  50  30
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  89  72 /  20  50  30  50  30
TROY        69  88  71  87  70 /  20  50  30  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 012318
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
618 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
RAIN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW
HAVE MOVED SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT HAVE STRUGGLED TO ENTER ALABAMA. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO A
RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR CENTERED AT 750 MB PER THIS MORNING`S
KBMX SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY 20 POPS IN FOR TONIGHT WITH
THAT SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OVERALL NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERN CONUS SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A UPPER TROUGH. DAILY RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WEAK PERTURBATIONS
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AT THE SURFACE. CONTINUED THE RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. DID REMOVE THE
LIKELY POPS (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) BOTH DAYS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THOUGH...AS FORCING MECHANISMS TO FIRE
CONVECTION REMAIN HARD TO PICK OUT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...
WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
INCREASING AGAIN AROUND NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THEY SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER.

77/GLEASON


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY AND MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHWRS OVER MISSISSIPPI HAVE
BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA AND DISSIPATING. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH PCPN OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO A TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER
LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS TROF WILL
PROVIDE FOR SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER
10Z. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO TROF AXIS. THERE IS A BIG RANGE OF
FORECAST CIG HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MODELS. THE
NAM MODEL SHOWS IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BY 12Z. CLIMATOLOGY
DOES NOT FAVOR IFR CIGS WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
WILL KEEP CIGS ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE DUE TO WIND FLOW AND CLOUDS. CIGS
WILL RISE SLOWLY AFTER 14Z WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING
MVFR CIGS BY 18Z. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PCPN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  86  67  86  68 /  20  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    68  85  67  86  69 /  20  50  30  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  86  69  88  70 /  20  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  69  87  69  90  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
CALERA      69  86  70  87  71 /  20  50  30  40  30
AUBURN      69  86  70  85  70 /  20  50  30  50  30
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  89  72 /  20  50  30  50  30
TROY        69  88  71  87  70 /  20  50  30  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 012318
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
618 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
RAIN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW
HAVE MOVED SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT HAVE STRUGGLED TO ENTER ALABAMA. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO A
RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR CENTERED AT 750 MB PER THIS MORNING`S
KBMX SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY 20 POPS IN FOR TONIGHT WITH
THAT SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OVERALL NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERN CONUS SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A UPPER TROUGH. DAILY RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WEAK PERTURBATIONS
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AT THE SURFACE. CONTINUED THE RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. DID REMOVE THE
LIKELY POPS (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) BOTH DAYS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THOUGH...AS FORCING MECHANISMS TO FIRE
CONVECTION REMAIN HARD TO PICK OUT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...
WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
INCREASING AGAIN AROUND NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THEY SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER.

77/GLEASON


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY AND MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHWRS OVER MISSISSIPPI HAVE
BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA AND DISSIPATING. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH PCPN OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO A TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER
LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS TROF WILL
PROVIDE FOR SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER
10Z. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO TROF AXIS. THERE IS A BIG RANGE OF
FORECAST CIG HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MODELS. THE
NAM MODEL SHOWS IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BY 12Z. CLIMATOLOGY
DOES NOT FAVOR IFR CIGS WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
WILL KEEP CIGS ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE DUE TO WIND FLOW AND CLOUDS. CIGS
WILL RISE SLOWLY AFTER 14Z WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING
MVFR CIGS BY 18Z. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PCPN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  86  67  86  68 /  20  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    68  85  67  86  69 /  20  50  30  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  86  69  88  70 /  20  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  69  87  69  90  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
CALERA      69  86  70  87  71 /  20  50  30  40  30
AUBURN      69  86  70  85  70 /  20  50  30  50  30
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  89  72 /  20  50  30  50  30
TROY        69  88  71  87  70 /  20  50  30  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 012318
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
618 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
RAIN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW
HAVE MOVED SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT HAVE STRUGGLED TO ENTER ALABAMA. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO A
RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR CENTERED AT 750 MB PER THIS MORNING`S
KBMX SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY 20 POPS IN FOR TONIGHT WITH
THAT SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OVERALL NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERN CONUS SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A UPPER TROUGH. DAILY RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WEAK PERTURBATIONS
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AT THE SURFACE. CONTINUED THE RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. DID REMOVE THE
LIKELY POPS (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) BOTH DAYS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THOUGH...AS FORCING MECHANISMS TO FIRE
CONVECTION REMAIN HARD TO PICK OUT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...
WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
INCREASING AGAIN AROUND NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THEY SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER.

77/GLEASON


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY AND MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHWRS OVER MISSISSIPPI HAVE
BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA AND DISSIPATING. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH PCPN OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO A TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER
LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS TROF WILL
PROVIDE FOR SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER
10Z. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO TROF AXIS. THERE IS A BIG RANGE OF
FORECAST CIG HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MODELS. THE
NAM MODEL SHOWS IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BY 12Z. CLIMATOLOGY
DOES NOT FAVOR IFR CIGS WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
WILL KEEP CIGS ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE DUE TO WIND FLOW AND CLOUDS. CIGS
WILL RISE SLOWLY AFTER 14Z WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING
MVFR CIGS BY 18Z. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PCPN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  86  67  86  68 /  20  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    68  85  67  86  69 /  20  50  30  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  86  69  88  70 /  20  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  69  87  69  90  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
CALERA      69  86  70  87  71 /  20  50  30  40  30
AUBURN      69  86  70  85  70 /  20  50  30  50  30
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  89  72 /  20  50  30  50  30
TROY        69  88  71  87  70 /  20  50  30  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 012100
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
400 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
RAIN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW
HAVE MOVED SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT HAVE STRUGGLED TO ENTER ALABAMA. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO A
RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR CENTERED AT 750 MB PER THIS MORNING`S
KBMX SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY 20 POPS IN FOR TONIGHT WITH
THAT SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OVERALL NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERN CONUS SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A UPPER TROUGH. DAILY RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WEAK PERTURBATIONS
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AT THE SURFACE. CONTINUED THE RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. DID REMOVE THE
LIKELY POPS (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) BOTH DAYS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THOUGH...AS FORCING MECHANISMS TO FIRE
CONVECTION REMAIN HARD TO PICK OUT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...
WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
INCREASING AGAIN AROUND NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THEY SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER.

77/GLEASON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR STRATUS DECK HOLDING ON EAST...BUT EROSION AND LIFTING ARE
OCCURRING AND EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WITH THE
ABSENCE OF GREAT LIFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...DID NOT MENTION
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS AT TERMINALS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
POPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AROUND 35 PERCENT AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA THAT PUSHED IN FROM THE EAST LAST NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE NEAR THE CENTRAL
SITES OF BHM/EET/TCL. ADDED SOME VFR FOG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. ADDED
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES
AROUND SUNRISE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  86  67  86  68 /  20  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    68  85  67  86  69 /  20  50  30  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  86  69  88  70 /  20  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  69  87  69  90  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
CALERA      69  86  70  87  71 /  20  50  30  40  30
AUBURN      69  86  70  85  70 /  20  50  30  50  30
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  89  72 /  20  50  30  50  30
TROY        69  88  71  87  70 /  20  50  30  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 012100
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
400 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
RAIN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW
HAVE MOVED SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT HAVE STRUGGLED TO ENTER ALABAMA. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO A
RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR CENTERED AT 750 MB PER THIS MORNING`S
KBMX SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY 20 POPS IN FOR TONIGHT WITH
THAT SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OVERALL NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERN CONUS SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A UPPER TROUGH. DAILY RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WEAK PERTURBATIONS
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AT THE SURFACE. CONTINUED THE RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. DID REMOVE THE
LIKELY POPS (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) BOTH DAYS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THOUGH...AS FORCING MECHANISMS TO FIRE
CONVECTION REMAIN HARD TO PICK OUT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...
WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
INCREASING AGAIN AROUND NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THEY SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER.

77/GLEASON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR STRATUS DECK HOLDING ON EAST...BUT EROSION AND LIFTING ARE
OCCURRING AND EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WITH THE
ABSENCE OF GREAT LIFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...DID NOT MENTION
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS AT TERMINALS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
POPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AROUND 35 PERCENT AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA THAT PUSHED IN FROM THE EAST LAST NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE NEAR THE CENTRAL
SITES OF BHM/EET/TCL. ADDED SOME VFR FOG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. ADDED
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES
AROUND SUNRISE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  86  67  86  68 /  20  50  20  30  20
ANNISTON    68  85  67  86  69 /  20  50  30  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  86  69  88  70 /  20  50  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  69  87  69  90  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
CALERA      69  86  70  87  71 /  20  50  30  40  30
AUBURN      69  86  70  85  70 /  20  50  30  50  30
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  89  72 /  20  50  30  50  30
TROY        69  88  71  87  70 /  20  50  30  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 011938
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
238 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AN AMPLIFIED AND CHAOTIC UPPER FLOW PATTERN (ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR) ACROSS NORTH AMERICA HAS YIELDED AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS/CANADA. FURTHER
WEST, WEAK RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. IN BETWEEN
EACH OF THESE TWO FEATURES, A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SHUNT SE ON THE W
FLANK OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER THE TN VALLEY.
ONE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS ROTATING OVER AR/LA WHILE ADDITIONAL WAVES
ARE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS E NE/W MO AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND EMBEDDED UNDULATIONS WILL BE
PUSHING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL REMAIN
ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY
AHEAD OF THE NE/MO SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. DID KEEP AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY ALREADY OCCURRING, BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MORNING LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER NE AL. A
GRADIENT IN TSRA COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS AND
LIFT FOCUSED MAINLY OVER NE AL TO W CENTRAL AL. THUS, INTRODUCED THE
GRADIENT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM NW TO SE WITH HIGHER POPS OVER
THE SE SIDE OF THE CWA (DEKALB, MARSHALL, CULLMAN COUNTIES) MAINLY
FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS WEAK
WITH SBCAPES BTWN 500-700 J/KG (UP TO 1000 J/KG ON NAM) BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THERE IS EVIDENCE OF AN ADDITIONAL CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS AN
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, BUT HAVE ONLY KEPT LOW END ISOLATED TO SCT
THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAINLY ON SAT NIGHT. THE VERTICAL PROFILE
APPEARS TO DRY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE S AND SE OF THE TN VALLEY. DRY AIR ADVECTION
DOES LOOK POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK SFC FRONT
MEANDERS OVER THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, AM NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED
THAT THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP QUITE AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, AND THIS LOOKS SHORT-LIVED. NEVERTHELESS, WITH
THE UPPER NW FLOW INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN, COULD SEE
SOME MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN TRANSITION WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LESS
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE GFS
SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. FOR
NOW, HAVE LEFT THIS TIME PERIOD DRY AND RETAINED CLIMO SCHC POPS ON
THU/FRI WITH A HINT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
IN ADDITION, MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED BUT MAINLY KEPT CLIMO LOW 90S AS HIGHS AND MID TO UPPER
60S AS LOWS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TS. HOWEVER,
THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER STRATUS (MVFR) WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN GA
WHICH COULD SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE HSV AREA.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  87  67  90 /  30  40  30  20
SHOALS        66  87  65  90 /  30  40  20  20
VINEMONT      67  84  65  88 /  30  50  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  64  85  67  88 /  30  40  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  84  65  87 /  30  50  30  20
FORT PAYNE    66  84  65  87 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011938
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
238 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AN AMPLIFIED AND CHAOTIC UPPER FLOW PATTERN (ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR) ACROSS NORTH AMERICA HAS YIELDED AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS/CANADA. FURTHER
WEST, WEAK RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. IN BETWEEN
EACH OF THESE TWO FEATURES, A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SHUNT SE ON THE W
FLANK OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER THE TN VALLEY.
ONE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS ROTATING OVER AR/LA WHILE ADDITIONAL WAVES
ARE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS E NE/W MO AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND EMBEDDED UNDULATIONS WILL BE
PUSHING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL REMAIN
ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY
AHEAD OF THE NE/MO SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. DID KEEP AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY ALREADY OCCURRING, BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MORNING LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER NE AL. A
GRADIENT IN TSRA COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS AND
LIFT FOCUSED MAINLY OVER NE AL TO W CENTRAL AL. THUS, INTRODUCED THE
GRADIENT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM NW TO SE WITH HIGHER POPS OVER
THE SE SIDE OF THE CWA (DEKALB, MARSHALL, CULLMAN COUNTIES) MAINLY
FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS WEAK
WITH SBCAPES BTWN 500-700 J/KG (UP TO 1000 J/KG ON NAM) BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THERE IS EVIDENCE OF AN ADDITIONAL CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS AN
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, BUT HAVE ONLY KEPT LOW END ISOLATED TO SCT
THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAINLY ON SAT NIGHT. THE VERTICAL PROFILE
APPEARS TO DRY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE S AND SE OF THE TN VALLEY. DRY AIR ADVECTION
DOES LOOK POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK SFC FRONT
MEANDERS OVER THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, AM NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED
THAT THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP QUITE AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, AND THIS LOOKS SHORT-LIVED. NEVERTHELESS, WITH
THE UPPER NW FLOW INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN, COULD SEE
SOME MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN TRANSITION WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LESS
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE GFS
SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. FOR
NOW, HAVE LEFT THIS TIME PERIOD DRY AND RETAINED CLIMO SCHC POPS ON
THU/FRI WITH A HINT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
IN ADDITION, MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED BUT MAINLY KEPT CLIMO LOW 90S AS HIGHS AND MID TO UPPER
60S AS LOWS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TS. HOWEVER,
THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER STRATUS (MVFR) WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN GA
WHICH COULD SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE HSV AREA.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  87  67  90 /  30  40  30  20
SHOALS        66  87  65  90 /  30  40  20  20
VINEMONT      67  84  65  88 /  30  50  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  64  85  67  88 /  30  40  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  84  65  87 /  30  50  30  20
FORT PAYNE    66  84  65  87 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011938
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
238 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AN AMPLIFIED AND CHAOTIC UPPER FLOW PATTERN (ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR) ACROSS NORTH AMERICA HAS YIELDED AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS/CANADA. FURTHER
WEST, WEAK RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. IN BETWEEN
EACH OF THESE TWO FEATURES, A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SHUNT SE ON THE W
FLANK OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER THE TN VALLEY.
ONE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS ROTATING OVER AR/LA WHILE ADDITIONAL WAVES
ARE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS E NE/W MO AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND EMBEDDED UNDULATIONS WILL BE
PUSHING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL REMAIN
ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY
AHEAD OF THE NE/MO SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. DID KEEP AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY ALREADY OCCURRING, BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MORNING LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER NE AL. A
GRADIENT IN TSRA COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS AND
LIFT FOCUSED MAINLY OVER NE AL TO W CENTRAL AL. THUS, INTRODUCED THE
GRADIENT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM NW TO SE WITH HIGHER POPS OVER
THE SE SIDE OF THE CWA (DEKALB, MARSHALL, CULLMAN COUNTIES) MAINLY
FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS WEAK
WITH SBCAPES BTWN 500-700 J/KG (UP TO 1000 J/KG ON NAM) BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THERE IS EVIDENCE OF AN ADDITIONAL CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS AN
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, BUT HAVE ONLY KEPT LOW END ISOLATED TO SCT
THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAINLY ON SAT NIGHT. THE VERTICAL PROFILE
APPEARS TO DRY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE S AND SE OF THE TN VALLEY. DRY AIR ADVECTION
DOES LOOK POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK SFC FRONT
MEANDERS OVER THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, AM NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED
THAT THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP QUITE AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, AND THIS LOOKS SHORT-LIVED. NEVERTHELESS, WITH
THE UPPER NW FLOW INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN, COULD SEE
SOME MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN TRANSITION WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LESS
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE GFS
SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. FOR
NOW, HAVE LEFT THIS TIME PERIOD DRY AND RETAINED CLIMO SCHC POPS ON
THU/FRI WITH A HINT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
IN ADDITION, MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED BUT MAINLY KEPT CLIMO LOW 90S AS HIGHS AND MID TO UPPER
60S AS LOWS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TS. HOWEVER,
THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER STRATUS (MVFR) WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN GA
WHICH COULD SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE HSV AREA.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  87  67  90 /  30  40  30  20
SHOALS        66  87  65  90 /  30  40  20  20
VINEMONT      67  84  65  88 /  30  50  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  64  85  67  88 /  30  40  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  84  65  87 /  30  50  30  20
FORT PAYNE    66  84  65  87 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011938
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
238 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AN AMPLIFIED AND CHAOTIC UPPER FLOW PATTERN (ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR) ACROSS NORTH AMERICA HAS YIELDED AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS/CANADA. FURTHER
WEST, WEAK RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. IN BETWEEN
EACH OF THESE TWO FEATURES, A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SHUNT SE ON THE W
FLANK OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER THE TN VALLEY.
ONE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS ROTATING OVER AR/LA WHILE ADDITIONAL WAVES
ARE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS E NE/W MO AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND EMBEDDED UNDULATIONS WILL BE
PUSHING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TN VALLEY WILL REMAIN
ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY
AHEAD OF THE NE/MO SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. DID KEEP AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY ALREADY OCCURRING, BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MORNING LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER NE AL. A
GRADIENT IN TSRA COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS AND
LIFT FOCUSED MAINLY OVER NE AL TO W CENTRAL AL. THUS, INTRODUCED THE
GRADIENT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM NW TO SE WITH HIGHER POPS OVER
THE SE SIDE OF THE CWA (DEKALB, MARSHALL, CULLMAN COUNTIES) MAINLY
FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS WEAK
WITH SBCAPES BTWN 500-700 J/KG (UP TO 1000 J/KG ON NAM) BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THERE IS EVIDENCE OF AN ADDITIONAL CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS AN
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, BUT HAVE ONLY KEPT LOW END ISOLATED TO SCT
THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAINLY ON SAT NIGHT. THE VERTICAL PROFILE
APPEARS TO DRY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE S AND SE OF THE TN VALLEY. DRY AIR ADVECTION
DOES LOOK POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK SFC FRONT
MEANDERS OVER THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, AM NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED
THAT THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP QUITE AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, AND THIS LOOKS SHORT-LIVED. NEVERTHELESS, WITH
THE UPPER NW FLOW INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN, COULD SEE
SOME MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN TRANSITION WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LESS
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE GFS
SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. FOR
NOW, HAVE LEFT THIS TIME PERIOD DRY AND RETAINED CLIMO SCHC POPS ON
THU/FRI WITH A HINT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
IN ADDITION, MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED BUT MAINLY KEPT CLIMO LOW 90S AS HIGHS AND MID TO UPPER
60S AS LOWS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TS. HOWEVER,
THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER STRATUS (MVFR) WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN GA
WHICH COULD SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE HSV AREA.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  87  67  90 /  30  40  30  20
SHOALS        66  87  65  90 /  30  40  20  20
VINEMONT      67  84  65  88 /  30  50  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  64  85  67  88 /  30  40  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  84  65  87 /  30  50  30  20
FORT PAYNE    66  84  65  87 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 011933
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
233 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BASE OF A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF RESIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...ALLOWING SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO PASS
THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE ~ 1014 MILLIBARS) WAS SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED SINCE
THURSDAY...NOW NEAR 2 INCHES...01.12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THIS
CONTRIBUTION COMES FROM ALOFT WITH THE LOWER LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY.
RADAR SHOWS A SCATTERING OF RETURNS OVER MISSISSIPPI...BUT
OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY INDICATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND AT BEST.

PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AT THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND A WEAKLY DEFINED STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES LOOKS TO PROVIDE WEAK LIFT IN THE NEAR TERM. GIVEN
LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WILL GO WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE AT/LESS THAN 10%. FOR
SATURDAY...THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO MOISTEN UP THROUGH A DEEPER
COLUMN SUPPORTING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER 70S
COASTAL ZONES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 90. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: LOW

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF WIGGLES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL WORK
WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE FA WILL
KEEP SKIES ON THE CLOUDY SIDE. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT INSTABILITY
OVER THE FA ...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO LIMITED INSOLATION
(HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM SOLUTION)...BUT LOOKING AT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL TEND TO HAVE ENOUGH
OOMPH FOR THUNDER. ALSO WENT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASES SOMEWHAT OVER THE INTERIOR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
RECOVERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE WEAK SURFACE TROF NEAR THE
COAST FINALLY DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY TREND TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES ON MONDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
01.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...EAST OF A
FRONTAL WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST WITH ANY SHRA MOSTLY IN
THE VCNTY AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS AT HIGHER LEVELS...SO VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WIND. /10

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKLY DEFINED SURFACE FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
RESULTS IN A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW WITH VARYING DIRECTION.
SMALL SEA STATES TO CONTINUE. A PREVAILING...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES
WEST INTO THE GULF. SEAS CHANGE LITTLE. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  72  88  71 /  20  40  30  60  40
PENSACOLA   73  90  73  89  73 /  10  40  30  60  40
DESTIN      77  88  76  88  75 /  10  40  20  60  30
EVERGREEN   69  91  70  89  71 /  20  60  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  66  90  69  88  69 /  30  60  40  60  30
CAMDEN      68  90  70  89  71 /  20  60  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   69  91  71  89  71 /  10  50  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/16/29






000
FXUS64 KMOB 011933
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
233 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BASE OF A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF RESIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...ALLOWING SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO PASS
THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE ~ 1014 MILLIBARS) WAS SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED SINCE
THURSDAY...NOW NEAR 2 INCHES...01.12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THIS
CONTRIBUTION COMES FROM ALOFT WITH THE LOWER LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY.
RADAR SHOWS A SCATTERING OF RETURNS OVER MISSISSIPPI...BUT
OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY INDICATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND AT BEST.

PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AT THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND A WEAKLY DEFINED STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES LOOKS TO PROVIDE WEAK LIFT IN THE NEAR TERM. GIVEN
LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WILL GO WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE AT/LESS THAN 10%. FOR
SATURDAY...THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO MOISTEN UP THROUGH A DEEPER
COLUMN SUPPORTING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER 70S
COASTAL ZONES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 90. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: LOW

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF WIGGLES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL WORK
WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE FA WILL
KEEP SKIES ON THE CLOUDY SIDE. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT INSTABILITY
OVER THE FA ...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO LIMITED INSOLATION
(HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM SOLUTION)...BUT LOOKING AT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL TEND TO HAVE ENOUGH
OOMPH FOR THUNDER. ALSO WENT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASES SOMEWHAT OVER THE INTERIOR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
RECOVERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE WEAK SURFACE TROF NEAR THE
COAST FINALLY DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY TREND TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES ON MONDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
01.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...EAST OF A
FRONTAL WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST WITH ANY SHRA MOSTLY IN
THE VCNTY AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS AT HIGHER LEVELS...SO VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WIND. /10

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKLY DEFINED SURFACE FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
RESULTS IN A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW WITH VARYING DIRECTION.
SMALL SEA STATES TO CONTINUE. A PREVAILING...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES
WEST INTO THE GULF. SEAS CHANGE LITTLE. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  72  88  71 /  20  40  30  60  40
PENSACOLA   73  90  73  89  73 /  10  40  30  60  40
DESTIN      77  88  76  88  75 /  10  40  20  60  30
EVERGREEN   69  91  70  89  71 /  20  60  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  66  90  69  88  69 /  30  60  40  60  30
CAMDEN      68  90  70  89  71 /  20  60  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   69  91  71  89  71 /  10  50  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/16/29






000
FXUS64 KMOB 011933
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
233 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BASE OF A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF RESIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...ALLOWING SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO PASS
THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE ~ 1014 MILLIBARS) WAS SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED SINCE
THURSDAY...NOW NEAR 2 INCHES...01.12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THIS
CONTRIBUTION COMES FROM ALOFT WITH THE LOWER LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY.
RADAR SHOWS A SCATTERING OF RETURNS OVER MISSISSIPPI...BUT
OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY INDICATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND AT BEST.

PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AT THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND A WEAKLY DEFINED STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES LOOKS TO PROVIDE WEAK LIFT IN THE NEAR TERM. GIVEN
LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WILL GO WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE AT/LESS THAN 10%. FOR
SATURDAY...THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO MOISTEN UP THROUGH A DEEPER
COLUMN SUPPORTING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER 70S
COASTAL ZONES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 90. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: LOW

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF WIGGLES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL WORK
WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE FA WILL
KEEP SKIES ON THE CLOUDY SIDE. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT INSTABILITY
OVER THE FA ...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO LIMITED INSOLATION
(HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM SOLUTION)...BUT LOOKING AT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL TEND TO HAVE ENOUGH
OOMPH FOR THUNDER. ALSO WENT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASES SOMEWHAT OVER THE INTERIOR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
RECOVERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE WEAK SURFACE TROF NEAR THE
COAST FINALLY DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY TREND TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES ON MONDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
01.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...EAST OF A
FRONTAL WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST WITH ANY SHRA MOSTLY IN
THE VCNTY AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS AT HIGHER LEVELS...SO VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WIND. /10

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKLY DEFINED SURFACE FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
RESULTS IN A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW WITH VARYING DIRECTION.
SMALL SEA STATES TO CONTINUE. A PREVAILING...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES
WEST INTO THE GULF. SEAS CHANGE LITTLE. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  72  88  71 /  20  40  30  60  40
PENSACOLA   73  90  73  89  73 /  10  40  30  60  40
DESTIN      77  88  76  88  75 /  10  40  20  60  30
EVERGREEN   69  91  70  89  71 /  20  60  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  66  90  69  88  69 /  30  60  40  60  30
CAMDEN      68  90  70  89  71 /  20  60  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   69  91  71  89  71 /  10  50  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/16/29






000
FXUS64 KMOB 011933
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
233 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BASE OF A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF RESIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...ALLOWING SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO PASS
THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE ~ 1014 MILLIBARS) WAS SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED SINCE
THURSDAY...NOW NEAR 2 INCHES...01.12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THIS
CONTRIBUTION COMES FROM ALOFT WITH THE LOWER LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY.
RADAR SHOWS A SCATTERING OF RETURNS OVER MISSISSIPPI...BUT
OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY INDICATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND AT BEST.

PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AT THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND A WEAKLY DEFINED STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES LOOKS TO PROVIDE WEAK LIFT IN THE NEAR TERM. GIVEN
LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WILL GO WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE AT/LESS THAN 10%. FOR
SATURDAY...THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO MOISTEN UP THROUGH A DEEPER
COLUMN SUPPORTING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER 70S
COASTAL ZONES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 90. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: LOW

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF WIGGLES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL WORK
WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE FA WILL
KEEP SKIES ON THE CLOUDY SIDE. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT INSTABILITY
OVER THE FA ...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO LIMITED INSOLATION
(HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM SOLUTION)...BUT LOOKING AT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL TEND TO HAVE ENOUGH
OOMPH FOR THUNDER. ALSO WENT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASES SOMEWHAT OVER THE INTERIOR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
RECOVERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE WEAK SURFACE TROF NEAR THE
COAST FINALLY DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY TREND TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES ON MONDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
01.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...EAST OF A
FRONTAL WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST WITH ANY SHRA MOSTLY IN
THE VCNTY AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS AT HIGHER LEVELS...SO VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WIND. /10

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKLY DEFINED SURFACE FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
RESULTS IN A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW WITH VARYING DIRECTION.
SMALL SEA STATES TO CONTINUE. A PREVAILING...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES
WEST INTO THE GULF. SEAS CHANGE LITTLE. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  72  88  71 /  20  40  30  60  40
PENSACOLA   73  90  73  89  73 /  10  40  30  60  40
DESTIN      77  88  76  88  75 /  10  40  20  60  30
EVERGREEN   69  91  70  89  71 /  20  60  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  66  90  69  88  69 /  30  60  40  60  30
CAMDEN      68  90  70  89  71 /  20  60  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   69  91  71  89  71 /  10  50  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/16/29






000
FXUS64 KBMX 011812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
112 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRATUS DECK AND INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED WESTWARD INTO
ALABAMA. THESE CLOUDS WERE ROUGHLY FROM BIRMINGHAM TO GADSDEN TO
MONTGOMERY AND EASTWARD. THE LOW CLOUD COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEST...WE ARE SEEING SOME SUN AND TEMPS HAVE
JUMPED INTO THE LOW 80S WITH A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING.

ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EXITING EASTWARD THROUGH GEORGIA
WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS BACK OVER LOUISIANA. AS FAR AS POPS ARE
CONCERNING...THE OVERALL FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WHILE INSTABILITY
IS ALSO ON THE WEAK SIDE. LEFT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUMMER AROUND 35 PERCENT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED HIGHS IN THE EAST.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR STRATUS DECK HOLDING ON EAST...BUT EROSION AND LIFTING ARE
OCCURRING AND EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WITH THE
ABSENCE OF GREAT LIFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...DID NOT MENTION
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS AT TERMINALS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
POPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AROUND 35 PERCENT AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA THAT PUSHED IN FROM THE EAST LAST NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE NEAR THE CENTRAL
SITES OF BHM/EET/TCL. ADDED SOME VFR FOG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. ADDED
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES
AROUND SUNRISE.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THIS MORNING WE HAVE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED WITH THE STRATUS
TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE/ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH/WEST AS SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COULD
BE A DEGREE OR SO MILDER DEPENDING ON ONSET OF CONVECTION WITH THE
EAST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST INTERACTS WITH WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS
WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING TO RETURN
TO A MORE SUMMERTIME LIKE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG IMPACTS FROM BERTHA AS
SHE SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  86  67  86  67 /  30  50  30  40  30
ANNISTON    68  85  67  85  68 /  30  50  40  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  86  69  87  69 /  20  50  30  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  69  87  69  89  69 /  20  50  30  40  30
CALERA      69  86  70  87  69 /  20  50  40  40  30
AUBURN      69  86  70  85  69 /  30  50  40  60  30
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  88  71 /  20  50  40  60  30
TROY        69  88  71  87  69 /  20  50  40  60  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 011812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
112 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRATUS DECK AND INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED WESTWARD INTO
ALABAMA. THESE CLOUDS WERE ROUGHLY FROM BIRMINGHAM TO GADSDEN TO
MONTGOMERY AND EASTWARD. THE LOW CLOUD COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEST...WE ARE SEEING SOME SUN AND TEMPS HAVE
JUMPED INTO THE LOW 80S WITH A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING.

ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EXITING EASTWARD THROUGH GEORGIA
WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS BACK OVER LOUISIANA. AS FAR AS POPS ARE
CONCERNING...THE OVERALL FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WHILE INSTABILITY
IS ALSO ON THE WEAK SIDE. LEFT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUMMER AROUND 35 PERCENT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED HIGHS IN THE EAST.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR STRATUS DECK HOLDING ON EAST...BUT EROSION AND LIFTING ARE
OCCURRING AND EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WITH THE
ABSENCE OF GREAT LIFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...DID NOT MENTION
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS AT TERMINALS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
POPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AROUND 35 PERCENT AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA THAT PUSHED IN FROM THE EAST LAST NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE NEAR THE CENTRAL
SITES OF BHM/EET/TCL. ADDED SOME VFR FOG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. ADDED
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES
AROUND SUNRISE.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THIS MORNING WE HAVE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED WITH THE STRATUS
TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE/ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH/WEST AS SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COULD
BE A DEGREE OR SO MILDER DEPENDING ON ONSET OF CONVECTION WITH THE
EAST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST INTERACTS WITH WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS
WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING TO RETURN
TO A MORE SUMMERTIME LIKE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG IMPACTS FROM BERTHA AS
SHE SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  86  67  86  67 /  30  50  30  40  30
ANNISTON    68  85  67  85  68 /  30  50  40  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  86  69  87  69 /  20  50  30  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  69  87  69  89  69 /  20  50  30  40  30
CALERA      69  86  70  87  69 /  20  50  40  40  30
AUBURN      69  86  70  85  69 /  30  50  40  60  30
MONTGOMERY  71  89  71  88  71 /  20  50  40  60  30
TROY        69  88  71  87  69 /  20  50  40  60  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 011804 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
104 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION [01.18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST...EAST OF A FRONTAL WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST WITH ANY SHRA
MOSTLY IN THE VCTY AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS AT HIGHER LEVELS...SO VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WIND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...LOOKING AT THE MASS FIELDS ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROF...WITH ITS AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...DOWN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ~
1014 MILLIBARS) HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. TAKING A LOOK AT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BETTER DEFINED CUMULUS FIELD EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW WAS ORIENTED FROM NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS IS WHERE FORECASTERS FIND SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SFC WAVE IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION OF A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF MAIN UPPER TROF LEADING TO THE BETTER
LIFT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND POINTS WEST THIS
MORNING.

FARTHER TO THE EAST...RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IS
LIGHT. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED SINCE THURSDAY MORNING...NOW
JUST SHY OF 2 INCHES...01.12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THIS
CONTRIBUTION COMES FROM ALOFT WITH THE LOWER LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY.

PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AT THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF LOOKS
TO PROVIDE LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN LATEST RADAR
TRENDS ALONG WITH OBSERVED/FORECAST SOUNDING DATA OF MOISTURE
PRESENTATION AND ALSO WEAK INSTABILITY...FEEL THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION MIXED IN AT TIMES. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE WEAK...ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS MAINLY BELOW 40 MPH
COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 32/10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: LOW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  91  72  90 /  30  20  40  40  60
PENSACOLA   89  73  90  74  90 /  20  10  40  30  50
DESTIN      88  77  88  76  88 /  10  10  40  30  40
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  90 /  30  20  60  30  60
WAYNESBORO  87  66  90  69  89 /  30  30  60  40  60
CAMDEN      91  68  90  70  89 /  30  20  60  40  60
CRESTVIEW   93  69  91  70  91 /  20  10  50  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 011804 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
104 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION [01.18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST...EAST OF A FRONTAL WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST WITH ANY SHRA
MOSTLY IN THE VCTY AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS AT HIGHER LEVELS...SO VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WIND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...LOOKING AT THE MASS FIELDS ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROF...WITH ITS AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...DOWN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ~
1014 MILLIBARS) HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. TAKING A LOOK AT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BETTER DEFINED CUMULUS FIELD EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW WAS ORIENTED FROM NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS IS WHERE FORECASTERS FIND SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SFC WAVE IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION OF A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF MAIN UPPER TROF LEADING TO THE BETTER
LIFT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND POINTS WEST THIS
MORNING.

FARTHER TO THE EAST...RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IS
LIGHT. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED SINCE THURSDAY MORNING...NOW
JUST SHY OF 2 INCHES...01.12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THIS
CONTRIBUTION COMES FROM ALOFT WITH THE LOWER LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY.

PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AT THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF LOOKS
TO PROVIDE LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN LATEST RADAR
TRENDS ALONG WITH OBSERVED/FORECAST SOUNDING DATA OF MOISTURE
PRESENTATION AND ALSO WEAK INSTABILITY...FEEL THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION MIXED IN AT TIMES. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE WEAK...ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS MAINLY BELOW 40 MPH
COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 32/10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: LOW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  91  72  90 /  30  20  40  40  60
PENSACOLA   89  73  90  74  90 /  20  10  40  30  50
DESTIN      88  77  88  76  88 /  10  10  40  30  40
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  90 /  30  20  60  30  60
WAYNESBORO  87  66  90  69  89 /  30  30  60  40  60
CAMDEN      91  68  90  70  89 /  30  20  60  40  60
CRESTVIEW   93  69  91  70  91 /  20  10  50  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 011716 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 947 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES REFLECTIVITY RETURNS IN NWRN AL/NERN MS/SRN
TN. THUS FAR, NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT
AUTOMATED WX STATIONS IN THE AREA. I SUSPECT AT LEAST SPRINKLES MAY
BE FALLING, MUCH LIKE ON THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE NOW TRACKING THRU CENTRAL/NRN AL WITH A GOOD DEAL OF DRY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND ON NWRLY FLOW. IN LOW LEVELS,
THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW. PW PROFILES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AT BMX, BUT REMAIN AROUND 1.0 INCH AT
OHX TO THE NORTH. SATELLITE AND OBS INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK TIED
TO THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OUR SERN
COUNTIES AND INTO EASTERN AL AND GA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW
POP OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE MAY
LESSEN THIS CHANCE AS WE GO THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TS. HOWEVER,
THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER STRATUS (MVFR) WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN GA
WHICH COULD SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE HSV AREA.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011716 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 947 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES REFLECTIVITY RETURNS IN NWRN AL/NERN MS/SRN
TN. THUS FAR, NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT
AUTOMATED WX STATIONS IN THE AREA. I SUSPECT AT LEAST SPRINKLES MAY
BE FALLING, MUCH LIKE ON THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE NOW TRACKING THRU CENTRAL/NRN AL WITH A GOOD DEAL OF DRY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND ON NWRLY FLOW. IN LOW LEVELS,
THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW. PW PROFILES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AT BMX, BUT REMAIN AROUND 1.0 INCH AT
OHX TO THE NORTH. SATELLITE AND OBS INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK TIED
TO THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OUR SERN
COUNTIES AND INTO EASTERN AL AND GA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW
POP OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE MAY
LESSEN THIS CHANCE AS WE GO THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TS. HOWEVER,
THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER STRATUS (MVFR) WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN GA
WHICH COULD SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE HSV AREA.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011639
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1139 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRATUS DECK AND INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED WESTWARD INTO
ALABAMA. THESE CLOUDS WERE ROUGHLY FROM BIRMINGHAM TO GADSDEN TO
MONTGOMERY AND EASTWARD. THE LOW CLOUD COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEST...WE ARE SEEING SOME SUN AND TEMPS HAVE
JUMPED INTO THE LOW 80S WITH A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING.

ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EXITING EASTWARD THROUGH GEORGIA
WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS BACK OVER LOUISIANA. AS FAR AS POPS ARE
CONCERNING...THE OVERALL FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WHILE INSTABILITY
IS ALSO ON THE WEAK SIDE. LEFT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUMMER AROUND 35 PERCENT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED HIGHS IN THE EAST.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
SPECIFIC IN THE TAFS. REGARDLESS...VIS/CIGS SHOULD NOT BE GREATLY
IMPACTED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL MONITOR THE IFR/MVFR STRATUS
DECK CREEPING WESTWARD ACROSS EAST ALABAMA FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS
AT KTOI AND KMGM...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY SHOW THIS AFFECTING
KANB THROUGH 17Z.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THIS MORNING WE HAVE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED WITH THE STRATUS
TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE/ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH/WEST AS SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COULD
BE A DEGREE OR SO MILDER DEPENDING ON ONSET OF CONVECTION WITH THE
EAST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST INTERACTS WITH WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS
WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING TO RETURN
TO A MORE SUMMERTIME LIKE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG IMPACTS FROM BERTHA AS
SHE SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  67  86  67  86 /  40  30  50  30  40
ANNISTON    84  68  85  67  85 /  40  30  50  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  69  86  69  87 /  40  20  50  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  89  69  87  69  89 /  40  20  50  30  40
CALERA      86  69  86  70  87 /  40  20  50  40  40
AUBURN      86  69  86  70  85 /  40  30  50  40  60
MONTGOMERY  88  71  89  71  88 /  40  20  50  40  60
TROY        88  69  88  71  87 /  40  20  50  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 011639
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1139 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRATUS DECK AND INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED WESTWARD INTO
ALABAMA. THESE CLOUDS WERE ROUGHLY FROM BIRMINGHAM TO GADSDEN TO
MONTGOMERY AND EASTWARD. THE LOW CLOUD COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEST...WE ARE SEEING SOME SUN AND TEMPS HAVE
JUMPED INTO THE LOW 80S WITH A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING.

ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EXITING EASTWARD THROUGH GEORGIA
WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS BACK OVER LOUISIANA. AS FAR AS POPS ARE
CONCERNING...THE OVERALL FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WHILE INSTABILITY
IS ALSO ON THE WEAK SIDE. LEFT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUMMER AROUND 35 PERCENT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED HIGHS IN THE EAST.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
SPECIFIC IN THE TAFS. REGARDLESS...VIS/CIGS SHOULD NOT BE GREATLY
IMPACTED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL MONITOR THE IFR/MVFR STRATUS
DECK CREEPING WESTWARD ACROSS EAST ALABAMA FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS
AT KTOI AND KMGM...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY SHOW THIS AFFECTING
KANB THROUGH 17Z.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THIS MORNING WE HAVE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED WITH THE STRATUS
TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE/ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH/WEST AS SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COULD
BE A DEGREE OR SO MILDER DEPENDING ON ONSET OF CONVECTION WITH THE
EAST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST INTERACTS WITH WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS
WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING TO RETURN
TO A MORE SUMMERTIME LIKE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG IMPACTS FROM BERTHA AS
SHE SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  67  86  67  86 /  40  30  50  30  40
ANNISTON    84  68  85  67  85 /  40  30  50  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  69  86  69  87 /  40  20  50  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  89  69  87  69  89 /  40  20  50  30  40
CALERA      86  69  86  70  87 /  40  20  50  40  40
AUBURN      86  69  86  70  85 /  40  30  50  40  60
MONTGOMERY  88  71  89  71  88 /  40  20  50  40  60
TROY        88  69  88  71  87 /  40  20  50  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 011541 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1041 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...LOOKING AT THE MASS FIELDS ALOFT...THE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROF...WITH ITS AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...DOWN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ~
1014 MILLIBARS) HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. TAKING A LOOK AT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BETTER DEFINED CUMULUS FIELD EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW WAS ORIENTED FROM NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS IS WHERE FORECASTERS FIND SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SFC WAVE IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION OF A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF MAIN UPPER TROF LEADING TO THE BETTER
LIFT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND POINTS WEST THIS
MORNING.

FARTHER TO THE EAST...RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IS
LIGHT. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED SINCE THURSDAY MORNING...NOW
JUST SHY OF 2 INCHES...01.12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THIS
CONTRIBUTION COMES FROM ALOFT WITH THE LOWER LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY.

PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AT THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF LOOKS
TO PROVIDE LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN LATEST RADAR
TRENDS ALONG WITH OBSERVED/FORECAST SOUNDING DATA OF MOISTURE
PRESENTATION AND ALSO WEAK INSTABILITY...FEEL THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION MIXED IN AT TIMES. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE WEAK...ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS MAINLY BELOW 40 MPH
COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 32/10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: LOW

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF.  A WEAK SURFACE
LOW NEAR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA DISSIPATES BY SUNDAY BUT A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROF WILL LINGER NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES.  WILL HAVE GOOD
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY TRENDING HIGHER TO LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LEAD TO IMPROVING
DEEP LAYER LIFT OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES. /29

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASES SOMEWHAT OVER THE INTERIOR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
RECOVERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE WEAK SURFACE TROF NEAR THE
COAST FINALLY DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY TREND TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES ON MONDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ADJACENT GULF
WATERS. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE MOSTLY TO WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS GENERATED FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  91  72  90 /  30  20  50  40  60
PENSACOLA   89  73  91  74  90 /  20  10  50  30  50
DESTIN      88  78  89  76  88 /  10  10  50  30  40
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  90 /  30  20  50  30  60
WAYNESBORO  87  67  90  69  89 /  30  30  50  40  60
CAMDEN      91  68  90  70  89 /  30  30  50  40  60
CRESTVIEW   93  69  92  70  91 /  20  10  50  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 011541 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1041 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...LOOKING AT THE MASS FIELDS ALOFT...THE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROF...WITH ITS AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...DOWN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ~
1014 MILLIBARS) HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. TAKING A LOOK AT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BETTER DEFINED CUMULUS FIELD EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW WAS ORIENTED FROM NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS IS WHERE FORECASTERS FIND SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SFC WAVE IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION OF A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF MAIN UPPER TROF LEADING TO THE BETTER
LIFT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND POINTS WEST THIS
MORNING.

FARTHER TO THE EAST...RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IS
LIGHT. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED SINCE THURSDAY MORNING...NOW
JUST SHY OF 2 INCHES...01.12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THIS
CONTRIBUTION COMES FROM ALOFT WITH THE LOWER LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY.

PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AT THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF LOOKS
TO PROVIDE LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN LATEST RADAR
TRENDS ALONG WITH OBSERVED/FORECAST SOUNDING DATA OF MOISTURE
PRESENTATION AND ALSO WEAK INSTABILITY...FEEL THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION MIXED IN AT TIMES. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE WEAK...ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS MAINLY BELOW 40 MPH
COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 32/10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: LOW

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF.  A WEAK SURFACE
LOW NEAR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA DISSIPATES BY SUNDAY BUT A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROF WILL LINGER NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES.  WILL HAVE GOOD
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY TRENDING HIGHER TO LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LEAD TO IMPROVING
DEEP LAYER LIFT OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES. /29

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASES SOMEWHAT OVER THE INTERIOR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
RECOVERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE WEAK SURFACE TROF NEAR THE
COAST FINALLY DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY TREND TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES ON MONDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ADJACENT GULF
WATERS. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE MOSTLY TO WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS GENERATED FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  91  72  90 /  30  20  50  40  60
PENSACOLA   89  73  91  74  90 /  20  10  50  30  50
DESTIN      88  78  89  76  88 /  10  10  50  30  40
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  90 /  30  20  50  30  60
WAYNESBORO  87  67  90  69  89 /  30  30  50  40  60
CAMDEN      91  68  90  70  89 /  30  30  50  40  60
CRESTVIEW   93  69  92  70  91 /  20  10  50  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 011447 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
947 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES REFLECTIVITY RETURNS IN NWRN AL/NERN MS/SRN
TN. THUS FAR, NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT
AUTOMATED WX STATIONS IN THE AREA. I SUSPECT AT LEAST SPRINKLES MAY
BE FALLING, MUCH LIKE ON THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE NOW TRACKING THRU CENTRAL/NRN AL WITH A GOOD DEAL OF DRY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND ON NWRLY FLOW. IN LOW LEVELS,
THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW. PW PROFILES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AT BMX, BUT REMAIN AROUND 1.0 INCH AT
OHX TO THE NORTH. SATELLITE AND OBS INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK TIED
TO THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OUR SERN
COUNTIES AND INTO EASTERN AL AND GA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW
POP OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE MAY
LESSEN THIS CHANCE AS WE GO THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW, WILL INTRODUCE VICINITY
THUNDER TOMORROW AFTER 11Z, BUT THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY, LINGERING THRU THE AFTN HRS.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011447 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
947 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES REFLECTIVITY RETURNS IN NWRN AL/NERN MS/SRN
TN. THUS FAR, NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT
AUTOMATED WX STATIONS IN THE AREA. I SUSPECT AT LEAST SPRINKLES MAY
BE FALLING, MUCH LIKE ON THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE NOW TRACKING THRU CENTRAL/NRN AL WITH A GOOD DEAL OF DRY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND ON NWRLY FLOW. IN LOW LEVELS,
THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW. PW PROFILES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AT BMX, BUT REMAIN AROUND 1.0 INCH AT
OHX TO THE NORTH. SATELLITE AND OBS INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK TIED
TO THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OUR SERN
COUNTIES AND INTO EASTERN AL AND GA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW
POP OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE MAY
LESSEN THIS CHANCE AS WE GO THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW, WILL INTRODUCE VICINITY
THUNDER TOMORROW AFTER 11Z, BUT THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY, LINGERING THRU THE AFTN HRS.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011138
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING WE HAVE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED WITH THE STRATUS
TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE/ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH/WEST AS SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COULD
BE A DEGREE OR SO MILDER DEPENDING ON ONSET OF CONVECTION WITH THE
EAST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST INTERACTS WITH WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS
WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING TO RETURN
TO A MORE SUMMERTIME LIKE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG IMPACTS FROM BERTHA AS
SHE SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
SPECIFIC IN THE TAFS. REGARDLESS...VIS/CIGS SHOULD NOT BE GREATLY
IMPACTED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL MONITOR THE IFR/MVFR STRATUS
DECK CREEPING WESTWARD ACROSS EAST ALABAMA FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS
AT KTOI AND KMGM...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY SHOW THIS AFFECTING
KANB THROUGH 17Z.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87






000
FXUS64 KBMX 011138
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING WE HAVE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED WITH THE STRATUS
TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE/ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH/WEST AS SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COULD
BE A DEGREE OR SO MILDER DEPENDING ON ONSET OF CONVECTION WITH THE
EAST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST INTERACTS WITH WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS
WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING TO RETURN
TO A MORE SUMMERTIME LIKE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG IMPACTS FROM BERTHA AS
SHE SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
SPECIFIC IN THE TAFS. REGARDLESS...VIS/CIGS SHOULD NOT BE GREATLY
IMPACTED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL MONITOR THE IFR/MVFR STRATUS
DECK CREEPING WESTWARD ACROSS EAST ALABAMA FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS
AT KTOI AND KMGM...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY SHOW THIS AFFECTING
KANB THROUGH 17Z.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87






000
FXUS64 KBMX 011138
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING WE HAVE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED WITH THE STRATUS
TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE/ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH/WEST AS SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COULD
BE A DEGREE OR SO MILDER DEPENDING ON ONSET OF CONVECTION WITH THE
EAST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST INTERACTS WITH WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS
WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING TO RETURN
TO A MORE SUMMERTIME LIKE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG IMPACTS FROM BERTHA AS
SHE SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
SPECIFIC IN THE TAFS. REGARDLESS...VIS/CIGS SHOULD NOT BE GREATLY
IMPACTED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL MONITOR THE IFR/MVFR STRATUS
DECK CREEPING WESTWARD ACROSS EAST ALABAMA FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS
AT KTOI AND KMGM...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY SHOW THIS AFFECTING
KANB THROUGH 17Z.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87






000
FXUS64 KBMX 011138
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING WE HAVE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED WITH THE STRATUS
TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE/ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH/WEST AS SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COULD
BE A DEGREE OR SO MILDER DEPENDING ON ONSET OF CONVECTION WITH THE
EAST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST INTERACTS WITH WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS
WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING TO RETURN
TO A MORE SUMMERTIME LIKE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG IMPACTS FROM BERTHA AS
SHE SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
SPECIFIC IN THE TAFS. REGARDLESS...VIS/CIGS SHOULD NOT BE GREATLY
IMPACTED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL MONITOR THE IFR/MVFR STRATUS
DECK CREEPING WESTWARD ACROSS EAST ALABAMA FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS
AT KTOI AND KMGM...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY SHOW THIS AFFECTING
KANB THROUGH 17Z.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87






000
FXUS64 KHUN 011127 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

LARGE UPPER TROF STILL DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE US. ACROSS THE CWA
TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WILL MONITOR IN CASE FOG WOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE. ATTM DONT THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE.

IR STLT SHOWS A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER NRN MS THAT COULD PRODUCE
SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY. MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING A LOT OF PCPN TODAY THUS WILL KEEP POPS ARND 30 PERCENT. FOR
TONIGHT DONT SEE ANY REAL GOOD TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN BUT WITH
THE UPPER TROF IN PLACE CAN RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT 30 POP.

SATURDAY...STILL NOT SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER
UPPER DISTURBANCES NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS MAY AFFECT THE TN VALLEY
BY SATURDAY MRNG WITH A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. DONT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE WITH MODELS HANDLING THE PCPN CHC/TIMING ON SATURDAY. THUS
WILL LEAVE 50 POPS WHICH IS WHAT THE NAM IS HINTING AT.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN US BUT
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A WEAK CDFNT/BOUNDARY WITH NE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
SHOULD BRING A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
PCPN. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THE MRNG/AFTN AND DRY FOR THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...ECMWF PRETTY MUCH KEEPS IT DRY ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...PROBABLY DUE TO WHAT`S LEFT OF BERTHA AS IT HUGS THE EAST
COAST PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE TN VALLEY. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
BULLISH WITH A CHC OF PCPN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH ECMWF AND NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...MODELS HINT AT A POSSIBLE CDFNT APPROACHING THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY GFS. THUS WILL KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR NOW.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW, WILL INTRODUCE VICINITY
THUNDER TOMORROW AFTER 11Z, BUT THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY, LINGERING THRU THE AFTN HRS.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011127 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

LARGE UPPER TROF STILL DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE US. ACROSS THE CWA
TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WILL MONITOR IN CASE FOG WOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE. ATTM DONT THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE.

IR STLT SHOWS A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER NRN MS THAT COULD PRODUCE
SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY. MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING A LOT OF PCPN TODAY THUS WILL KEEP POPS ARND 30 PERCENT. FOR
TONIGHT DONT SEE ANY REAL GOOD TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN BUT WITH
THE UPPER TROF IN PLACE CAN RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT 30 POP.

SATURDAY...STILL NOT SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER
UPPER DISTURBANCES NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS MAY AFFECT THE TN VALLEY
BY SATURDAY MRNG WITH A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. DONT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE WITH MODELS HANDLING THE PCPN CHC/TIMING ON SATURDAY. THUS
WILL LEAVE 50 POPS WHICH IS WHAT THE NAM IS HINTING AT.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN US BUT
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A WEAK CDFNT/BOUNDARY WITH NE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
SHOULD BRING A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
PCPN. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THE MRNG/AFTN AND DRY FOR THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...ECMWF PRETTY MUCH KEEPS IT DRY ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...PROBABLY DUE TO WHAT`S LEFT OF BERTHA AS IT HUGS THE EAST
COAST PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE TN VALLEY. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
BULLISH WITH A CHC OF PCPN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH ECMWF AND NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...MODELS HINT AT A POSSIBLE CDFNT APPROACHING THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY GFS. THUS WILL KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR NOW.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW, WILL INTRODUCE VICINITY
THUNDER TOMORROW AFTER 11Z, BUT THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY, LINGERING THRU THE AFTN HRS.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011019
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
519 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING WE HAVE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED WITH THE STRATUS
TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE/ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH/WEST AS SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COULD
BE A DEGREE OR SO MILDER DEPENDING ON ONSET OF CONVECTION WITH THE
EAST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST INTERACTS WITH WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS
WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING TO RETURN
TO A MORE SUMMERTIME LIKE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG IMPACTS FROM BERTHA AS
SHE SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGHOUT.
CONTINUED A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME MVFR BR
MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5-7
KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH SUNRISE. DID
CONTINUE VCSH FOR ANB AFTER 14Z...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY OTHER
SITE AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  67  86  67  86 /  40  30  50  30  40
ANNISTON    84  68  85  67  85 /  40  30  50  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  69  86  69  87 /  30  20  50  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  87  69  87  69  89 /  30  20  50  30  40
CALERA      86  69  86  70  87 /  30  20  50  40  40
AUBURN      86  69  86  70  85 /  30  30  50  40  60
MONTGOMERY  89  71  89  71  88 /  30  20  50  40  60
TROY        89  69  88  71  87 /  30  20  50  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 011019
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
519 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING WE HAVE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED WITH THE STRATUS
TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE/ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH/WEST AS SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COULD
BE A DEGREE OR SO MILDER DEPENDING ON ONSET OF CONVECTION WITH THE
EAST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST INTERACTS WITH WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS
WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING TO RETURN
TO A MORE SUMMERTIME LIKE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG IMPACTS FROM BERTHA AS
SHE SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGHOUT.
CONTINUED A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME MVFR BR
MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5-7
KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH SUNRISE. DID
CONTINUE VCSH FOR ANB AFTER 14Z...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY OTHER
SITE AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  67  86  67  86 /  40  30  50  30  40
ANNISTON    84  68  85  67  85 /  40  30  50  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  69  86  69  87 /  30  20  50  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  87  69  87  69  89 /  30  20  50  30  40
CALERA      86  69  86  70  87 /  30  20  50  40  40
AUBURN      86  69  86  70  85 /  30  30  50  40  60
MONTGOMERY  89  71  89  71  88 /  30  20  50  40  60
TROY        89  69  88  71  87 /  30  20  50  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 010950
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MID TO UPPER TROF OF LOW PRES
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND MS RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY STATIONARY AND MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SFC
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE WEST
EASING SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE TX/LA
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE LA/TX COAST. THIS SFC WAVE IS MOSTLY
A REFLECTION OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF MAIN
UPPER TROF LEADING TO THE BETTER LIFT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MID
RIVER AND POINTS WEST THIS MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WE
WILL SEE AND INCREASE IN THE MID TO UPPER MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AFFECTING MAINLY
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASED IN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTRODUCE
BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS A
RESULT BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE WEAK
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS MAINLY BELOW 40 MPH COMBINED WITH
OCCASIONALLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE TWEAKING THESE
VALUES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF.  A WEAK SURFACE
LOW NEAR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA DISSIPATES BY SUNDAY BUT A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROF WILL LINGER NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES.  WILL HAVE GOOD
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY TRENDING HIGHER TO LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LEAD TO IMPROVING
DEEP LAYER LIFT OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASES SOMEWHAT OVER THE INTERIOR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
RECOVERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE WEAK SURFACE TROF NEAR THE
COAST FINALLY DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY TREND TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES ON MONDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ADJACENT GULF
WATERS. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE MOSTLY TO WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS GENERATED FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  91  72  90 /  30  20  50  40  60
PENSACOLA   89  73  91  74  90 /  20  10  50  30  50
DESTIN      88  78  89  76  88 /  10  10  50  30  40
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  90 /  30  20  50  30  60
WAYNESBORO  87  67  90  69  89 /  30  30  50  40  60
CAMDEN      91  68  90  70  89 /  30  30  50  40  60
CRESTVIEW   93  69  92  70  91 /  20  10  50  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 010950
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MID TO UPPER TROF OF LOW PRES
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND MS RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY STATIONARY AND MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SFC
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE WEST
EASING SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE TX/LA
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE LA/TX COAST. THIS SFC WAVE IS MOSTLY
A REFLECTION OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF MAIN
UPPER TROF LEADING TO THE BETTER LIFT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MID
RIVER AND POINTS WEST THIS MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WE
WILL SEE AND INCREASE IN THE MID TO UPPER MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AFFECTING MAINLY
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASED IN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTRODUCE
BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS A
RESULT BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE WEAK
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS MAINLY BELOW 40 MPH COMBINED WITH
OCCASIONALLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE TWEAKING THESE
VALUES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF.  A WEAK SURFACE
LOW NEAR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA DISSIPATES BY SUNDAY BUT A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROF WILL LINGER NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES.  WILL HAVE GOOD
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY TRENDING HIGHER TO LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LEAD TO IMPROVING
DEEP LAYER LIFT OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASES SOMEWHAT OVER THE INTERIOR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
RECOVERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE WEAK SURFACE TROF NEAR THE
COAST FINALLY DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY TREND TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES ON MONDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ADJACENT GULF
WATERS. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE MOSTLY TO WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS GENERATED FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  91  72  90 /  30  20  50  40  60
PENSACOLA   89  73  91  74  90 /  20  10  50  30  50
DESTIN      88  78  89  76  88 /  10  10  50  30  40
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  90 /  30  20  50  30  60
WAYNESBORO  87  67  90  69  89 /  30  30  50  40  60
CAMDEN      91  68  90  70  89 /  30  30  50  40  60
CRESTVIEW   93  69  92  70  91 /  20  10  50  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 010950
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MID TO UPPER TROF OF LOW PRES
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND MS RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY STATIONARY AND MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SFC
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE WEST
EASING SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE TX/LA
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE LA/TX COAST. THIS SFC WAVE IS MOSTLY
A REFLECTION OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF MAIN
UPPER TROF LEADING TO THE BETTER LIFT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MID
RIVER AND POINTS WEST THIS MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WE
WILL SEE AND INCREASE IN THE MID TO UPPER MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AFFECTING MAINLY
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASED IN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTRODUCE
BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS A
RESULT BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE WEAK
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS MAINLY BELOW 40 MPH COMBINED WITH
OCCASIONALLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE TWEAKING THESE
VALUES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF.  A WEAK SURFACE
LOW NEAR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA DISSIPATES BY SUNDAY BUT A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROF WILL LINGER NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES.  WILL HAVE GOOD
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY TRENDING HIGHER TO LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LEAD TO IMPROVING
DEEP LAYER LIFT OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASES SOMEWHAT OVER THE INTERIOR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
RECOVERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE WEAK SURFACE TROF NEAR THE
COAST FINALLY DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY TREND TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES ON MONDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ADJACENT GULF
WATERS. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE MOSTLY TO WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS GENERATED FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  91  72  90 /  30  20  50  40  60
PENSACOLA   89  73  91  74  90 /  20  10  50  30  50
DESTIN      88  78  89  76  88 /  10  10  50  30  40
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  90 /  30  20  50  30  60
WAYNESBORO  87  67  90  69  89 /  30  30  50  40  60
CAMDEN      91  68  90  70  89 /  30  30  50  40  60
CRESTVIEW   93  69  92  70  91 /  20  10  50  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 010950
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MID TO UPPER TROF OF LOW PRES
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND MS RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY STATIONARY AND MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SFC
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE WEST
EASING SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE TX/LA
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE LA/TX COAST. THIS SFC WAVE IS MOSTLY
A REFLECTION OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF MAIN
UPPER TROF LEADING TO THE BETTER LIFT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MID
RIVER AND POINTS WEST THIS MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WE
WILL SEE AND INCREASE IN THE MID TO UPPER MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AFFECTING MAINLY
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASED IN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTRODUCE
BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS A
RESULT BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE WEAK
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS MAINLY BELOW 40 MPH COMBINED WITH
OCCASIONALLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE TWEAKING THESE
VALUES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF.  A WEAK SURFACE
LOW NEAR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA DISSIPATES BY SUNDAY BUT A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROF WILL LINGER NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES.  WILL HAVE GOOD
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY TRENDING HIGHER TO LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LEAD TO IMPROVING
DEEP LAYER LIFT OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASES SOMEWHAT OVER THE INTERIOR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
RECOVERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE WEAK SURFACE TROF NEAR THE
COAST FINALLY DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY TREND TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES ON MONDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ADJACENT GULF
WATERS. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE MOSTLY TO WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS GENERATED FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  91  72  90 /  30  20  50  40  60
PENSACOLA   89  73  91  74  90 /  20  10  50  30  50
DESTIN      88  78  89  76  88 /  10  10  50  30  40
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  90 /  30  20  50  30  60
WAYNESBORO  87  67  90  69  89 /  30  30  50  40  60
CAMDEN      91  68  90  70  89 /  30  30  50  40  60
CRESTVIEW   93  69  92  70  91 /  20  10  50  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 010821
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

LARGE UPPER TROF STILL DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE US. ACROSS THE CWA
TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WILL MONITOR IN CASE FOG WOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE. ATTM DONT THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE.

IR STLT SHOWS A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER NRN MS THAT COULD PRODUCE
SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY. MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING A LOT OF PCPN TODAY THUS WILL KEEP POPS ARND 30 PERCENT. FOR
TONIGHT DONT SEE ANY REAL GOOD TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN BUT WITH
THE UPPER TROF IN PLACE CAN RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT 30 POP.

SATURDAY...STILL NOT SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER
UPPER DISTURBANCES NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS MAY AFFECT THE TN VALLEY
BY SATURDAY MRNG WITH A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. DONT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE WITH MODELS HANDLING THE PCPN CHC/TIMING ON SATURDAY. THUS
WILL LEAVE 50 POPS WHICH IS WHAT THE NAM IS HINTING AT.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN US BUT
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A WEAK CDFNT/BOUNDARY WITH NE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
SHOULD BRING A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
PCPN. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THE MRNG/AFTN AND DRY FOR THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...ECMWF PRETTY MUCH KEEPS IT DRY ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...PROBABLY DUE TO WHAT`S LEFT OF BERTHA AS IT HUGS THE EAST
COAST PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE TN VALLEY. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
BULLISH WITH A CHC OF PCPN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH ECMWF AND NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...MODELS HINT AT A POSSIBLE CDFNT APPROACHING THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY GFS. THUS WILL KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR NOW.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1253 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE TWO
MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS FRI. MOISTURE/ENERGY ALONG THE SE
COAST MAY ALSO SHIFT WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS FRI...RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FROM E TO W...ALTHOUGH
THE PROB REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  66  86  66 /  30  30  50  30
SHOALS        86  67  87  67 /  30  30  50  30
VINEMONT      84  66  87  66 /  30  30  50  30
FAYETTEVILLE  83  65  85  65 /  30  30  50  30
ALBERTVILLE   85  65  87  66 /  30  30  50  30
FORT PAYNE    83  65  85  65 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010821
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

LARGE UPPER TROF STILL DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE US. ACROSS THE CWA
TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WILL MONITOR IN CASE FOG WOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE. ATTM DONT THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE.

IR STLT SHOWS A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER NRN MS THAT COULD PRODUCE
SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY. MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING A LOT OF PCPN TODAY THUS WILL KEEP POPS ARND 30 PERCENT. FOR
TONIGHT DONT SEE ANY REAL GOOD TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN BUT WITH
THE UPPER TROF IN PLACE CAN RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT 30 POP.

SATURDAY...STILL NOT SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER
UPPER DISTURBANCES NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS MAY AFFECT THE TN VALLEY
BY SATURDAY MRNG WITH A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. DONT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE WITH MODELS HANDLING THE PCPN CHC/TIMING ON SATURDAY. THUS
WILL LEAVE 50 POPS WHICH IS WHAT THE NAM IS HINTING AT.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN US BUT
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A WEAK CDFNT/BOUNDARY WITH NE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
SHOULD BRING A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
PCPN. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THE MRNG/AFTN AND DRY FOR THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...ECMWF PRETTY MUCH KEEPS IT DRY ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...PROBABLY DUE TO WHAT`S LEFT OF BERTHA AS IT HUGS THE EAST
COAST PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE TN VALLEY. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
BULLISH WITH A CHC OF PCPN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH ECMWF AND NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...MODELS HINT AT A POSSIBLE CDFNT APPROACHING THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY GFS. THUS WILL KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR NOW.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1253 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE TWO
MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS FRI. MOISTURE/ENERGY ALONG THE SE
COAST MAY ALSO SHIFT WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS FRI...RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FROM E TO W...ALTHOUGH
THE PROB REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  66  86  66 /  30  30  50  30
SHOALS        86  67  87  67 /  30  30  50  30
VINEMONT      84  66  87  66 /  30  30  50  30
FAYETTEVILLE  83  65  85  65 /  30  30  50  30
ALBERTVILLE   85  65  87  66 /  30  30  50  30
FORT PAYNE    83  65  85  65 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 010553 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1253 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 928 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
QUIET WX CONDS FOR THE MOST PART PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
THIS LATE THU EVENING...ALTHOUGH AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHTER
RETURNS BOTH TO THE E AND W. WITH SUBTLE DISTURBANCES NOW EMBEDDED
WELL WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION...LIGHT PRECIP
CROSSING THE MS RIVER COULD EASILY WORK ITS WAY EWD WITHIN THE FLOW
REGIME OVERNIGHT...CONSISTENT WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. MORNING LOWS
FRI ALSO LOOK TO BE SIMILAR/IF NOT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FROM
THIS MORNING...GIVEN CURRENT TEMP TRENDS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S. OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN...AND OTHER THAN TO EDIT/REFRESH
SOME OF THE CURRENT/HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST WX TRENDS...NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE TWO
MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS FRI. MOISTURE/ENERGY ALONG THE SE
COAST MAY ALSO SHIFT WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS FRI...RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FROM E TO W...ALTHOUGH
THE PROB REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010553 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1253 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 928 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
QUIET WX CONDS FOR THE MOST PART PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
THIS LATE THU EVENING...ALTHOUGH AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHTER
RETURNS BOTH TO THE E AND W. WITH SUBTLE DISTURBANCES NOW EMBEDDED
WELL WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION...LIGHT PRECIP
CROSSING THE MS RIVER COULD EASILY WORK ITS WAY EWD WITHIN THE FLOW
REGIME OVERNIGHT...CONSISTENT WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. MORNING LOWS
FRI ALSO LOOK TO BE SIMILAR/IF NOT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FROM
THIS MORNING...GIVEN CURRENT TEMP TRENDS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S. OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN...AND OTHER THAN TO EDIT/REFRESH
SOME OF THE CURRENT/HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST WX TRENDS...NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE TWO
MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS FRI. MOISTURE/ENERGY ALONG THE SE
COAST MAY ALSO SHIFT WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS FRI...RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FROM E TO W...ALTHOUGH
THE PROB REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010441
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE (01/06Z ISSUANCE)...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OUT OF EASTERN TEXAS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION AND EXPECT THIS THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
IN THE NEAR TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO
THE FCST...MOSTLY INTERIOR AREAS SO MENTION ONLY VCTS IN TERMINALS.
12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE HIGH
LEVEL TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
WAS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ATOP A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT ENTIRELY LOW WITH THIS FEATURE
(WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES ~ 1014 MILLIBARS)...THE SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION SHOWS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER TYLER
TEXAS. TO THE EAST...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
RECOVER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH AS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BEING INFLUENCED BY THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF. ALTHOUGH
NOT MENTIONED IN THE ZONES FOR TONIGHT...PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LESS THAN 10% DOES ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT
SPRINKLES THAT MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IS FORECAST RESULTING IN LIGHT WIND FLOW. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF IS FORECAST TO BE ALIGNED
JUST INLAND...IN AN EAST TO WEST FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERING (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES) THROUGH THE DAY...ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AT THE BASE OF LONG WAVE UPPER TROF AND
SURFACE FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY NEARBY...SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE

FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY MOVED EAST OF THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ( JUST EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY). THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WORKS WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...CREATING AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20...AND OVER SOUTHERN MISS. FOR THE FA...THIS
LIMITS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER PIECE/PIECES OF ENERGY PASS NORTH OF THE FA. WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE FA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AROUND...A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH A LIKELY CHANCE
INLAND. WITH THIS BEING MOSTLY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TIME-
FRAME...TEMPS RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MORE UPPER ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AS THE FRIDAY ENERGY SWINGS OUT OF THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE EXITING ENERGY WILL HELP TO PROLONG THE
CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FA. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
[31.18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE. EASTERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS WAS
EXPANDING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CLOUD BASES ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN. /10

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTS IN A PREVAILING LIGHT WIND
FLOW WITH VARYING DIRECTION. SMALL SEA STATES. WINDS...WAVES AND
SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
/10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  90  70  91  71 /  05  30  10  40  40
PENSACOLA   70  91  72  91  73 /  05  10  10  40  30
DESTIN      73  89  75  88  76 /  05  10  10  40  30
EVERGREEN   65  92  69  92  70 /  10  30  10  60  40
WAYNESBORO  65  89  67  91  68 /  10  30  20  60  40
CAMDEN      65  89  69  91  69 /  10  30  20  60  40
CRESTVIEW   65  92  70  91  71 /  05  10  10  50  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMOB 010441
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE (01/06Z ISSUANCE)...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OUT OF EASTERN TEXAS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION AND EXPECT THIS THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
IN THE NEAR TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO
THE FCST...MOSTLY INTERIOR AREAS SO MENTION ONLY VCTS IN TERMINALS.
12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE HIGH
LEVEL TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
WAS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ATOP A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT ENTIRELY LOW WITH THIS FEATURE
(WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES ~ 1014 MILLIBARS)...THE SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION SHOWS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER TYLER
TEXAS. TO THE EAST...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
RECOVER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH AS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BEING INFLUENCED BY THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF. ALTHOUGH
NOT MENTIONED IN THE ZONES FOR TONIGHT...PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LESS THAN 10% DOES ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT
SPRINKLES THAT MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IS FORECAST RESULTING IN LIGHT WIND FLOW. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF IS FORECAST TO BE ALIGNED
JUST INLAND...IN AN EAST TO WEST FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERING (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES) THROUGH THE DAY...ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AT THE BASE OF LONG WAVE UPPER TROF AND
SURFACE FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY NEARBY...SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE

FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY MOVED EAST OF THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ( JUST EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY). THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WORKS WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...CREATING AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20...AND OVER SOUTHERN MISS. FOR THE FA...THIS
LIMITS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER PIECE/PIECES OF ENERGY PASS NORTH OF THE FA. WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE FA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AROUND...A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH A LIKELY CHANCE
INLAND. WITH THIS BEING MOSTLY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TIME-
FRAME...TEMPS RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MORE UPPER ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AS THE FRIDAY ENERGY SWINGS OUT OF THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE EXITING ENERGY WILL HELP TO PROLONG THE
CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FA. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
[31.18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE. EASTERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS WAS
EXPANDING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CLOUD BASES ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN. /10

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTS IN A PREVAILING LIGHT WIND
FLOW WITH VARYING DIRECTION. SMALL SEA STATES. WINDS...WAVES AND
SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
/10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  90  70  91  71 /  05  30  10  40  40
PENSACOLA   70  91  72  91  73 /  05  10  10  40  30
DESTIN      73  89  75  88  76 /  05  10  10  40  30
EVERGREEN   65  92  69  92  70 /  10  30  10  60  40
WAYNESBORO  65  89  67  91  68 /  10  30  20  60  40
CAMDEN      65  89  69  91  69 /  10  30  20  60  40
CRESTVIEW   65  92  70  91  71 /  05  10  10  50  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
















000
FXUS64 KBMX 010423
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1123 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. RAINFALL CHANCES NO
MORE THAN 20 PERCENT AS SOME WEAK LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 65
TO 69 RANGE. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGHOUT.
CONTINUED A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME MVFR BR
MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5-7
KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH SUNRISE. DID
CONTINUE VCSH FOR ANB AFTER 14Z...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY OTHER
SITE AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 010423
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1123 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. RAINFALL CHANCES NO
MORE THAN 20 PERCENT AS SOME WEAK LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 65
TO 69 RANGE. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGHOUT.
CONTINUED A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME MVFR BR
MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5-7
KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH SUNRISE. DID
CONTINUE VCSH FOR ANB AFTER 14Z...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY OTHER
SITE AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 010423
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1123 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. RAINFALL CHANCES NO
MORE THAN 20 PERCENT AS SOME WEAK LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 65
TO 69 RANGE. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGHOUT.
CONTINUED A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME MVFR BR
MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5-7
KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH SUNRISE. DID
CONTINUE VCSH FOR ANB AFTER 14Z...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY OTHER
SITE AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 010423
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1123 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. RAINFALL CHANCES NO
MORE THAN 20 PERCENT AS SOME WEAK LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 65
TO 69 RANGE. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGHOUT.
CONTINUED A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME MVFR BR
MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5-7
KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH SUNRISE. DID
CONTINUE VCSH FOR ANB AFTER 14Z...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY OTHER
SITE AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 010247
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
945 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR AND
AROUND 70 COASTAL STILL LOOKING GOOD. SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS BLOWING
OFF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND BASE
OF UPPER TROF AXIS CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT.
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE HIGH
LEVEL TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
WAS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ATOP A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT ENTIRELY LOW WITH THIS FEATURE
(WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES ~ 1014 MILLIBARS)...THE SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION SHOWS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER TYLER
TEXAS. TO THE EAST...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
RECOVER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH AS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BEING INFLUENCED BY THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF. ALTHOUGH
NOT MENTIONED IN THE ZONES FOR TONIGHT...PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LESS THAN 10% DOES ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT
SPRINKLES THAT MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IS FORECAST RESULTING IN LIGHT WIND FLOW. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF IS FORECAST TO BE ALIGNED
JUST INLAND...IN AN EAST TO WEST FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERING (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES) THROUGH THE DAY...ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AT THE BASE OF LONG WAVE UPPER TROF AND
SURFACE FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY NEARBY...SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE

FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY MOVED EAST OF THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ( JUST EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY). THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WORKS WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...CREATING AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20...AND OVER SOUTHERN MISS. FOR THE FA...THIS
LIMITS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER PIECE/PIECES OF ENERGY PASS NORTH OF THE FA. WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE FA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AROUND...A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH A LIKELY CHANCE
INLAND. WITH THIS BEING MOSTLY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TIME-
FRAME...TEMPS RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MORE UPPER ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AS THE FRIDAY ENERGY SWINGS OUT OF THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE EXITING ENERGY WILL HELP TO PROLONG THE
CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FA. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
[31.18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE. EASTERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS WAS
EXPANDING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CLOUD BASES ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN. /10

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTS IN A PREVAILING LIGHT WIND
FLOW WITH VARYING DIRECTION. SMALL SEA STATES. WINDS...WAVES AND
SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
/10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  90  70  91  71 /  05  30  10  40  40
PENSACOLA   70  91  72  91  73 /  05  10  10  40  30
DESTIN      73  89  75  88  76 /  05  10  10  40  30
EVERGREEN   65  92  69  92  70 /  10  30  10  60  40
WAYNESBORO  65  89  67  91  68 /  10  30  20  60  40
CAMDEN      65  89  69  91  69 /  10  30  20  60  40
CRESTVIEW   65  92  70  91  71 /  05  10  10  50  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 010247
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
945 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR AND
AROUND 70 COASTAL STILL LOOKING GOOD. SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS BLOWING
OFF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND BASE
OF UPPER TROF AXIS CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT.
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE HIGH
LEVEL TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
WAS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ATOP A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT ENTIRELY LOW WITH THIS FEATURE
(WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES ~ 1014 MILLIBARS)...THE SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION SHOWS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER TYLER
TEXAS. TO THE EAST...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
RECOVER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH AS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BEING INFLUENCED BY THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF. ALTHOUGH
NOT MENTIONED IN THE ZONES FOR TONIGHT...PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LESS THAN 10% DOES ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT
SPRINKLES THAT MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IS FORECAST RESULTING IN LIGHT WIND FLOW. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF IS FORECAST TO BE ALIGNED
JUST INLAND...IN AN EAST TO WEST FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERING (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES) THROUGH THE DAY...ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AT THE BASE OF LONG WAVE UPPER TROF AND
SURFACE FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY NEARBY...SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE

FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY MOVED EAST OF THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ( JUST EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY). THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WORKS WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...CREATING AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20...AND OVER SOUTHERN MISS. FOR THE FA...THIS
LIMITS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER PIECE/PIECES OF ENERGY PASS NORTH OF THE FA. WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE FA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AROUND...A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH A LIKELY CHANCE
INLAND. WITH THIS BEING MOSTLY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TIME-
FRAME...TEMPS RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MORE UPPER ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AS THE FRIDAY ENERGY SWINGS OUT OF THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE EXITING ENERGY WILL HELP TO PROLONG THE
CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FA. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
[31.18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE. EASTERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS WAS
EXPANDING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CLOUD BASES ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN. /10

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTS IN A PREVAILING LIGHT WIND
FLOW WITH VARYING DIRECTION. SMALL SEA STATES. WINDS...WAVES AND
SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
/10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  90  70  91  71 /  05  30  10  40  40
PENSACOLA   70  91  72  91  73 /  05  10  10  40  30
DESTIN      73  89  75  88  76 /  05  10  10  40  30
EVERGREEN   65  92  69  92  70 /  10  30  10  60  40
WAYNESBORO  65  89  67  91  68 /  10  30  20  60  40
CAMDEN      65  89  69  91  69 /  10  30  20  60  40
CRESTVIEW   65  92  70  91  71 /  05  10  10  50  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KHUN 010228 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
928 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR EDITS MADE TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WX CONDS FOR THE MOST PART PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
THIS LATE THU EVENING...ALTHOUGH AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHTER
RETURNS BOTH TO THE E AND W. WITH SUBTLE DISTURBANCES NOW EMBEDDED
WELL WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION...LIGHT PRECIP
CROSSING THE MS RIVER COULD EASILY WORK ITS WAY EWD WITHIN THE FLOW
REGIME OVERNIGHT...CONSISTENT WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. MORNING LOWS
FRI ALSO LOOK TO BE SIMILAR/IF NOT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FROM
THIS MORNING...GIVEN CURRENT TEMP TRENDS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S. OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN...AND OTHER THAN TO EDIT/REFRESH
SOME OF THE CURRENT/HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST WX TRENDS...NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE TWO
MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE EWD HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS FRI. MOISTURE/ENERGY ALONG THE SE COAST
MAY ALSO SHIFT WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS FRI...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FROM E TO W...ALTHOUGH THE
PROB REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 010228 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
928 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR EDITS MADE TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WX CONDS FOR THE MOST PART PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
THIS LATE THU EVENING...ALTHOUGH AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHTER
RETURNS BOTH TO THE E AND W. WITH SUBTLE DISTURBANCES NOW EMBEDDED
WELL WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION...LIGHT PRECIP
CROSSING THE MS RIVER COULD EASILY WORK ITS WAY EWD WITHIN THE FLOW
REGIME OVERNIGHT...CONSISTENT WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. MORNING LOWS
FRI ALSO LOOK TO BE SIMILAR/IF NOT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FROM
THIS MORNING...GIVEN CURRENT TEMP TRENDS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S. OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN...AND OTHER THAN TO EDIT/REFRESH
SOME OF THE CURRENT/HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST WX TRENDS...NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE TWO
MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE EWD HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS FRI. MOISTURE/ENERGY ALONG THE SE COAST
MAY ALSO SHIFT WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS FRI...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FROM E TO W...ALTHOUGH THE
PROB REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 010208
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
908 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. RAINFALL CHANCES NO
MORE THAN 20 PERCENT AS SOME WEAK LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 65
TO 69 RANGE. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGHOUT.
CONTINUED A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME MVFR BR
MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5-7
KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD. CURRENT RADAR IS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER ANB...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN
VERY DRY BELOW 10 KFT AND MOST RAIN TO THE WEST ONLY REACH THE
SURFACE AS LIGHT SPRINKLES. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA
SHOULD INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF
THE STATE LINE THROUGH SUNRISE. DID ADD IN VCSH FOR ANB AFTER
14Z...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 010208
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
908 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. RAINFALL CHANCES NO
MORE THAN 20 PERCENT AS SOME WEAK LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 65
TO 69 RANGE. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGHOUT.
CONTINUED A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME MVFR BR
MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5-7
KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD. CURRENT RADAR IS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER ANB...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN
VERY DRY BELOW 10 KFT AND MOST RAIN TO THE WEST ONLY REACH THE
SURFACE AS LIGHT SPRINKLES. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA
SHOULD INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF
THE STATE LINE THROUGH SUNRISE. DID ADD IN VCSH FOR ANB AFTER
14Z...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 312325 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 116 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL EVOLVE SLOWLY AS A
LARGE UPPER LOW/TROF REMAINS PLANTED OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH TIME, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROF BECOME
NARROWER AND WEAKEN, AND ALSO PROVIDE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DRIER/SINKING AIR. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO
SLIDE THE PRECIP POTENTIAL A BIT FURTHER SE SOONER.

IN THE SHORT TERM, THE EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BEEN
SHIFTING EAST AND THINNING OUT A BIT, MAINLY OVER SRN TN AND NWRN
AL. HOWEVER, DRY LOW LEVEL AIR HAS IMPEDED ANYTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES THUS FAR TODAY. WE WILL CARRY A 20 POP TONIGHT AS EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE THREAT OF
PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE AND MORE DEPENDENT ON HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEN A COMBINATION OF A NE-SW CONVERGENCE
ZONE (WHICH BECOMES MORE APPARENT FROM ERN/MIDDLE TN THRU NRN AL AND
MS) AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR ON SATURDAY WHEN THE
POP WILL BE HIGHEST.

THE PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE PROGRESS
OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.  THE NAM/GFS KEEP IT IN PLACE LONGER OVER
THE TN VALLEY, WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS IT TO THE SE. WILL MAINTAIN A
LOW POP ON SUNDAY GIVEN THIS CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THRU THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND MID-UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND LIFTS N AS THE
NARROWING TROF WEAKENS/DISSIPATES ALONG THE GULF STATES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE TWO
MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE EWD HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS FRI. MOISTURE/ENERGY ALONG THE SE COAST
MAY ALSO SHIFT WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS FRI...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FROM E TO W...ALTHOUGH THE
PROB REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 312325 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 116 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL EVOLVE SLOWLY AS A
LARGE UPPER LOW/TROF REMAINS PLANTED OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH TIME, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROF BECOME
NARROWER AND WEAKEN, AND ALSO PROVIDE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DRIER/SINKING AIR. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO
SLIDE THE PRECIP POTENTIAL A BIT FURTHER SE SOONER.

IN THE SHORT TERM, THE EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BEEN
SHIFTING EAST AND THINNING OUT A BIT, MAINLY OVER SRN TN AND NWRN
AL. HOWEVER, DRY LOW LEVEL AIR HAS IMPEDED ANYTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES THUS FAR TODAY. WE WILL CARRY A 20 POP TONIGHT AS EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE THREAT OF
PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE AND MORE DEPENDENT ON HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEN A COMBINATION OF A NE-SW CONVERGENCE
ZONE (WHICH BECOMES MORE APPARENT FROM ERN/MIDDLE TN THRU NRN AL AND
MS) AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR ON SATURDAY WHEN THE
POP WILL BE HIGHEST.

THE PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE PROGRESS
OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.  THE NAM/GFS KEEP IT IN PLACE LONGER OVER
THE TN VALLEY, WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS IT TO THE SE. WILL MAINTAIN A
LOW POP ON SUNDAY GIVEN THIS CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THRU THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND MID-UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND LIFTS N AS THE
NARROWING TROF WEAKENS/DISSIPATES ALONG THE GULF STATES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE TWO
MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE EWD HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS FRI. MOISTURE/ENERGY ALONG THE SE COAST
MAY ALSO SHIFT WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS FRI...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FROM E TO W...ALTHOUGH THE
PROB REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 312310
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD THIS EVENING PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE MOST OF THE MOISTURE...AND MOSTLY
VIRGA IS ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA. THAT EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A GOOD
BIT OF MOISTURE WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE STAGNANT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH STRONG OR SEVERE CONVECTION. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WE AREN`T TALKING ABOUT WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS EVERYWHERE...BUT THOSE WHO DO OBSERVE A SHOWER OR
STORM SHOULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES.

LATER ON NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEING LEFT BEHIND IN THE
ARKLAMISS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT AND UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BOTH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE THEN ON THE
INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS BEING ADVERTISED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGHOUT.
CONTINUED A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME MVFR BR
MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5-7
KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD. CURRENT RADAR IS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER ANB...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN
VERY DRY BELOW 10 KFT AND MOST RAIN TO THE WEST ONLY REACH THE
SURFACE AS LIGHT SPRINKLES. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA
SHOULD INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF
THE STATE LINE THROUGH SUNRISE. DID ADD IN VCSH FOR ANB AFTER
14Z...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 312310
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD THIS EVENING PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE MOST OF THE MOISTURE...AND MOSTLY
VIRGA IS ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA. THAT EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A GOOD
BIT OF MOISTURE WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE STAGNANT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH STRONG OR SEVERE CONVECTION. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WE AREN`T TALKING ABOUT WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS EVERYWHERE...BUT THOSE WHO DO OBSERVE A SHOWER OR
STORM SHOULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES.

LATER ON NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEING LEFT BEHIND IN THE
ARKLAMISS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT AND UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BOTH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE THEN ON THE
INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS BEING ADVERTISED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGHOUT.
CONTINUED A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME MVFR BR
MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5-7
KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD. CURRENT RADAR IS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER ANB...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN
VERY DRY BELOW 10 KFT AND MOST RAIN TO THE WEST ONLY REACH THE
SURFACE AS LIGHT SPRINKLES. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA
SHOULD INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF
THE STATE LINE THROUGH SUNRISE. DID ADD IN VCSH FOR ANB AFTER
14Z...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 312226
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
526 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR TUNING OF SKY GRIDS. NO OTHER TWEAKS NEEDED

77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE HIGH
LEVEL TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
WAS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ATOP A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT ENTIRELY LOW WITH THIS FEATURE
(WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES ~ 1014 MILLIBARS)...THE SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION SHOWS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER TYLER
TEXAS. TO THE EAST...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
RECOVER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH AS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BEING INFLUENCED BY THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF. ALTHOUGH
NOT MENTIONED IN THE ZONES FOR TONIGHT...PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LESS THAN 10% DOES ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT
SPRINKLES THAT MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IS FORECAST RESULTING IN LIGHT WIND FLOW. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF IS FORECAST TO BE ALIGNED
JUST INLAND...IN AN EAST TO WEST FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERING (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES) THROUGH THE DAY...ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AT THE BASE OF LONG WAVE UPPER TROF AND
SURFACE FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY NEARBY...SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE

FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY MOVED EAST OF THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ( JUST EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY). THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WORKS WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...CREATING AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20...AND OVER SOUTHERN MISS. FOR THE FA...THIS
LIMITS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER PIECE/PIECES OF ENERGY PASS NORTH OF THE FA. WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE FA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AROUND...A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH A LIKELY CHANCE
INLAND. WITH THIS BEING MOSTLY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TIME-
FRAME...TEMPS RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MORE UPPER ENERGY DIVING INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AS THE FRIDAY ENERGY SWINGS OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. THE EXITING ENERGY WILL HELP TO PROLONG THE CHANCE OF
RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FA. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
[31.18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE. EASTERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS WAS
EXPANDING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CLOUD BASES ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN. /10

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTS IN A PREVAILING LIGHT WIND
FLOW WITH VARYING DIRECTION. SMALL SEA STATES. WINDS...WAVES AND
SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
/10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  90  70  91  71 /  05  30  10  40  40
PENSACOLA   70  91  72  91  73 /  05  10  10  40  30
DESTIN      73  89  75  88  76 /  05  10  10  40  30
EVERGREEN   65  92  69  92  70 /  10  30  10  60  40
WAYNESBORO  65  89  67  91  68 /  10  30  20  60  40
CAMDEN      65  89  69  91  69 /  10  30  20  60  40
CRESTVIEW   65  92  70  91  71 /  05  10  10  50  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 312226
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
526 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR TUNING OF SKY GRIDS. NO OTHER TWEAKS NEEDED

77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE HIGH
LEVEL TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
WAS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ATOP A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT ENTIRELY LOW WITH THIS FEATURE
(WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES ~ 1014 MILLIBARS)...THE SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION SHOWS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER TYLER
TEXAS. TO THE EAST...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
RECOVER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH AS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BEING INFLUENCED BY THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF. ALTHOUGH
NOT MENTIONED IN THE ZONES FOR TONIGHT...PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LESS THAN 10% DOES ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT
SPRINKLES THAT MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IS FORECAST RESULTING IN LIGHT WIND FLOW. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF IS FORECAST TO BE ALIGNED
JUST INLAND...IN AN EAST TO WEST FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERING (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES) THROUGH THE DAY...ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AT THE BASE OF LONG WAVE UPPER TROF AND
SURFACE FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY NEARBY...SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE

FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY MOVED EAST OF THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ( JUST EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY). THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WORKS WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...CREATING AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20...AND OVER SOUTHERN MISS. FOR THE FA...THIS
LIMITS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER PIECE/PIECES OF ENERGY PASS NORTH OF THE FA. WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE FA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AROUND...A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH A LIKELY CHANCE
INLAND. WITH THIS BEING MOSTLY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TIME-
FRAME...TEMPS RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MORE UPPER ENERGY DIVING INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AS THE FRIDAY ENERGY SWINGS OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. THE EXITING ENERGY WILL HELP TO PROLONG THE CHANCE OF
RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FA. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
[31.18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE. EASTERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS WAS
EXPANDING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CLOUD BASES ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN. /10

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTS IN A PREVAILING LIGHT WIND
FLOW WITH VARYING DIRECTION. SMALL SEA STATES. WINDS...WAVES AND
SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
/10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  90  70  91  71 /  05  30  10  40  40
PENSACOLA   70  91  72  91  73 /  05  10  10  40  30
DESTIN      73  89  75  88  76 /  05  10  10  40  30
EVERGREEN   65  92  69  92  70 /  10  30  10  60  40
WAYNESBORO  65  89  67  91  68 /  10  30  20  60  40
CAMDEN      65  89  69  91  69 /  10  30  20  60  40
CRESTVIEW   65  92  70  91  71 /  05  10  10  50  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 312057
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
357 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD THIS EVENING PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE MOST OF THE MOISTURE...AND MOSTLY
VIRGA IS ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA. THAT EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A GOOD
BIT OF MOISTURE WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE STAGNANT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH STRONG OR SEVERE CONVECTION. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WE AREN`T TALKING ABOUT WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS EVERYWHERE...BUT THOSE WHO DO OBSERVE A SHOWER OR
STORM SHOULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES.

LATER ON NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEING LEFT BEHIND IN THE
ARKLAMISS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT AND UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BOTH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE THEN ON THE
INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS BEING ADVERTISED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE TERMINAL FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
THROUGHOUT. DID ADD A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME
MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE
DEW POINTS INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS
AROUND 5-7 KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD.
RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN
VERY DRY BELOW 10 KFT AND MOST RAIN PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE
SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL SLIM. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD
INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
STATE LINE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  84  68  85  67 /  20  40  30  50  30
ANNISTON    67  84  68  85  68 /  20  50  40  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  85  69  86  69 /  20  40  30  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  67  86  70  88  69 /  20  30  30  50  30
CALERA      69  86  70  87  70 /  20  40  20  50  40
AUBURN      68  86  70  86  70 /  20  40  20  50  40
MONTGOMERY  68  89  71  90  71 /  10  40  20  50  40
TROY        67  89  70  88  71 /  10  40  20  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 312057
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
357 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD THIS EVENING PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE MOST OF THE MOISTURE...AND MOSTLY
VIRGA IS ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA. THAT EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A GOOD
BIT OF MOISTURE WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE STAGNANT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH STRONG OR SEVERE CONVECTION. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WE AREN`T TALKING ABOUT WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS EVERYWHERE...BUT THOSE WHO DO OBSERVE A SHOWER OR
STORM SHOULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES.

LATER ON NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEING LEFT BEHIND IN THE
ARKLAMISS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT AND UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BOTH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE THEN ON THE
INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS BEING ADVERTISED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE TERMINAL FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
THROUGHOUT. DID ADD A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME
MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE
DEW POINTS INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS
AROUND 5-7 KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD.
RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN
VERY DRY BELOW 10 KFT AND MOST RAIN PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE
SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL SLIM. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD
INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
STATE LINE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  84  68  85  67 /  20  40  30  50  30
ANNISTON    67  84  68  85  68 /  20  50  40  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  85  69  86  69 /  20  40  30  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  67  86  70  88  69 /  20  30  30  50  30
CALERA      69  86  70  87  70 /  20  40  20  50  40
AUBURN      68  86  70  86  70 /  20  40  20  50  40
MONTGOMERY  68  89  71  90  71 /  10  40  20  50  40
TROY        67  89  70  88  71 /  10  40  20  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 312057
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
357 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD THIS EVENING PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE MOST OF THE MOISTURE...AND MOSTLY
VIRGA IS ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA. THAT EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A GOOD
BIT OF MOISTURE WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE STAGNANT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH STRONG OR SEVERE CONVECTION. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WE AREN`T TALKING ABOUT WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS EVERYWHERE...BUT THOSE WHO DO OBSERVE A SHOWER OR
STORM SHOULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES.

LATER ON NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEING LEFT BEHIND IN THE
ARKLAMISS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT AND UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BOTH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE THEN ON THE
INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS BEING ADVERTISED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE TERMINAL FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
THROUGHOUT. DID ADD A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME
MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE
DEW POINTS INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS
AROUND 5-7 KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD.
RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN
VERY DRY BELOW 10 KFT AND MOST RAIN PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE
SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL SLIM. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD
INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
STATE LINE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  84  68  85  67 /  20  40  30  50  30
ANNISTON    67  84  68  85  68 /  20  50  40  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  85  69  86  69 /  20  40  30  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  67  86  70  88  69 /  20  30  30  50  30
CALERA      69  86  70  87  70 /  20  40  20  50  40
AUBURN      68  86  70  86  70 /  20  40  20  50  40
MONTGOMERY  68  89  71  90  71 /  10  40  20  50  40
TROY        67  89  70  88  71 /  10  40  20  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 312057
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
357 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD THIS EVENING PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE MOST OF THE MOISTURE...AND MOSTLY
VIRGA IS ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA. THAT EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A GOOD
BIT OF MOISTURE WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE STAGNANT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH STRONG OR SEVERE CONVECTION. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WE AREN`T TALKING ABOUT WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS EVERYWHERE...BUT THOSE WHO DO OBSERVE A SHOWER OR
STORM SHOULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES.

LATER ON NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEING LEFT BEHIND IN THE
ARKLAMISS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT AND UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BOTH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE THEN ON THE
INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS BEING ADVERTISED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE TERMINAL FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
THROUGHOUT. DID ADD A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME
MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE
DEW POINTS INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS
AROUND 5-7 KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD.
RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN
VERY DRY BELOW 10 KFT AND MOST RAIN PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE
SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL SLIM. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD
INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
STATE LINE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  84  68  85  67 /  20  40  30  50  30
ANNISTON    67  84  68  85  68 /  20  50  40  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  85  69  86  69 /  20  40  30  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  67  86  70  88  69 /  20  30  30  50  30
CALERA      69  86  70  87  70 /  20  40  20  50  40
AUBURN      68  86  70  86  70 /  20  40  20  50  40
MONTGOMERY  68  89  71  90  71 /  10  40  20  50  40
TROY        67  89  70  88  71 /  10  40  20  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 312008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
308 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE HIGH
LEVEL TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
WAS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ATOP A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT ENTIRELY LOW WITH THIS FEATURE
(WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES ~ 1014 MILLIBARS)...THE SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION SHOWS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER TYLER
TEXAS. TO THE EAST...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
RECOVER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH AS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BEING INFLUENCED BY THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF. ALTHOUGH
NOT MENTIONED IN THE ZONES FOR TONIGHT...PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LESS THAN 10% DOES ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT
SPRINKLES THAT MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IS FORECAST RESULTING IN LIGHT WIND FLOW. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF IS FORECAST TO BE ALIGNED
JUST INLAND...IN AN EAST TO WEST FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERING (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES) THROUGH THE DAY...ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AT THE BASE OF LONG WAVE UPPER TROF AND
SURFACE FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY NEARBY...SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE

FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY MOVED EAST OF THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ( JUST EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY). THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WORKS WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...CREATING AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20...AND OVER SOUTHERN MISS. FOR THE FA...THIS
LIMITS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER PIECE/PIECES OF ENERGY PASS NORTH OF THE FA. WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE FA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AROUND...A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH A LIKELY CHANCE
INLAND. WITH THIS BEING MOSTLY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TIME-
FRAME...TEMPS RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MORE UPPER ENERGY DIVING INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AS THE FRIDAY ENERGY SWINGS OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. THE EXITING ENERGY WILL HELP TO PROLONG THE CHANCE OF
RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FA. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
[31.18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE. EASTERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS WAS
EXPANDING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CLOUD BASES ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN. /10

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTS IN A PREVAILING LIGHT WIND
FLOW WITH VARYING DIRECTION. SMALL SEA STATES. WINDS...WAVES AND
SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
/10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  90  70  91  71 /  05  30  10  40  40
PENSACOLA   70  91  72  91  73 /  05  10  10  40  30
DESTIN      73  89  75  88  76 /  05  10  10  40  30
EVERGREEN   65  92  69  92  70 /  10  30  10  60  40
WAYNESBORO  65  89  67  91  68 /  10  30  20  60  40
CAMDEN      65  89  69  91  69 /  10  30  20  60  40
CRESTVIEW   65  92  70  91  71 /  05  10  10  50  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/16/29





000
FXUS64 KMOB 312008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
308 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE HIGH
LEVEL TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
WAS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ATOP A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT ENTIRELY LOW WITH THIS FEATURE
(WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES ~ 1014 MILLIBARS)...THE SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION SHOWS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER TYLER
TEXAS. TO THE EAST...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
RECOVER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH AS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BEING INFLUENCED BY THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF. ALTHOUGH
NOT MENTIONED IN THE ZONES FOR TONIGHT...PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LESS THAN 10% DOES ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT
SPRINKLES THAT MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IS FORECAST RESULTING IN LIGHT WIND FLOW. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF IS FORECAST TO BE ALIGNED
JUST INLAND...IN AN EAST TO WEST FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERING (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES) THROUGH THE DAY...ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AT THE BASE OF LONG WAVE UPPER TROF AND
SURFACE FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY NEARBY...SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE

FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY MOVED EAST OF THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ( JUST EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY). THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WORKS WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...CREATING AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20...AND OVER SOUTHERN MISS. FOR THE FA...THIS
LIMITS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER PIECE/PIECES OF ENERGY PASS NORTH OF THE FA. WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE FA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AROUND...A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH A LIKELY CHANCE
INLAND. WITH THIS BEING MOSTLY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TIME-
FRAME...TEMPS RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MORE UPPER ENERGY DIVING INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AS THE FRIDAY ENERGY SWINGS OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. THE EXITING ENERGY WILL HELP TO PROLONG THE CHANCE OF
RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FA. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
[31.18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE. EASTERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS WAS
EXPANDING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CLOUD BASES ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN. /10

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTS IN A PREVAILING LIGHT WIND
FLOW WITH VARYING DIRECTION. SMALL SEA STATES. WINDS...WAVES AND
SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
/10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  90  70  91  71 /  05  30  10  40  40
PENSACOLA   70  91  72  91  73 /  05  10  10  40  30
DESTIN      73  89  75  88  76 /  05  10  10  40  30
EVERGREEN   65  92  69  92  70 /  10  30  10  60  40
WAYNESBORO  65  89  67  91  68 /  10  30  20  60  40
CAMDEN      65  89  69  91  69 /  10  30  20  60  40
CRESTVIEW   65  92  70  91  71 /  05  10  10  50  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/16/29






000
FXUS64 KHUN 311816
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
116 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL EVOLVE SLOWLY AS A
LARGE UPPER LOW/TROF REMAINS PLANTED OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH TIME, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROF BECOME
NARROWER AND WEAKEN, AND ALSO PROVIDE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DRIER/SINKING AIR. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO
SLIDE THE PRECIP POTENTIAL A BIT FURTHER SE SOONER.

IN THE SHORT TERM, THE EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BEEN
SHIFTING EAST AND THINNING OUT A BIT, MAINLY OVER SRN TN AND NWRN
AL. HOWEVER, DRY LOW LEVEL AIR HAS IMPEDED ANYTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES THUS FAR TODAY. WE WILL CARRY A 20 POP TONIGHT AS EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE THREAT OF
PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE AND MORE DEPENDENT ON HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEN A COMBINATION OF A NE-SW CONVERGENCE
ZONE (WHICH BECOMES MORE APPARENT FROM ERN/MIDDLE TN THRU NRN AL AND
MS) AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR ON SATURDAY WHEN THE
POP WILL BE HIGHEST.

THE PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE PROGRESS
OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.  THE NAM/GFS KEEP IT IN PLACE LONGER OVER
THE TN VALLEY, WHILE THE ECWMF SHIFTS IT TO THE SE.  WILL MAINTAIN A
LOW POP ON SUNDAY GIVEN THIS CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THRU THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND MID-UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND LIFTS N AS THE
NARROWING TROF WEAKENS/DISSIPATES ALONG THE GULF STATES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS
REACHED THE GROUND...THE REST HAS BEEN VIRGA WITH THE HIGH CLOUD
BASES...SO LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  84  67  86 /  20  30  30  50
SHOALS        65  84  67  86 /  20  20  30  50
VINEMONT      66  82  67  83 /  20  30  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  65  82  66  85 /  20  30  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   65  84  66  85 /  20  40  40  50
FORT PAYNE    64  82  66  85 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311816
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
116 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL EVOLVE SLOWLY AS A
LARGE UPPER LOW/TROF REMAINS PLANTED OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH TIME, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROF BECOME
NARROWER AND WEAKEN, AND ALSO PROVIDE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DRIER/SINKING AIR. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO
SLIDE THE PRECIP POTENTIAL A BIT FURTHER SE SOONER.

IN THE SHORT TERM, THE EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BEEN
SHIFTING EAST AND THINNING OUT A BIT, MAINLY OVER SRN TN AND NWRN
AL. HOWEVER, DRY LOW LEVEL AIR HAS IMPEDED ANYTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES THUS FAR TODAY. WE WILL CARRY A 20 POP TONIGHT AS EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE THREAT OF
PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE AND MORE DEPENDENT ON HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEN A COMBINATION OF A NE-SW CONVERGENCE
ZONE (WHICH BECOMES MORE APPARENT FROM ERN/MIDDLE TN THRU NRN AL AND
MS) AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR ON SATURDAY WHEN THE
POP WILL BE HIGHEST.

THE PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE PROGRESS
OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.  THE NAM/GFS KEEP IT IN PLACE LONGER OVER
THE TN VALLEY, WHILE THE ECWMF SHIFTS IT TO THE SE.  WILL MAINTAIN A
LOW POP ON SUNDAY GIVEN THIS CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THRU THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND MID-UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND LIFTS N AS THE
NARROWING TROF WEAKENS/DISSIPATES ALONG THE GULF STATES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS
REACHED THE GROUND...THE REST HAS BEEN VIRGA WITH THE HIGH CLOUD
BASES...SO LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  84  67  86 /  20  30  30  50
SHOALS        65  84  67  86 /  20  20  30  50
VINEMONT      66  82  67  83 /  20  30  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  65  82  66  85 /  20  30  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   65  84  66  85 /  20  40  40  50
FORT PAYNE    64  82  66  85 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311806
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
106 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES. DRY
AIR BELOW 10 KFT WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE. RADAR IS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY DRY
BELOW 10 KFT AND MOST RAIN PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE SURFACE.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...WHICH WILL
SLIM. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD INCH TOWARD EASTERN
ALABAMA BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE LINE. UPDATES
OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE TERMINAL FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
THROUGHOUT. DID ADD A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME
MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE
DEW POINTS INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS
AROUND 5-7 KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD.
RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN
VERY DRY BELOW 10 KFT AND MOST RAIN PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE
SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL SLIM. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD
INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
STATE LINE.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 453 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CIRRUS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EXCEPT NONE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE...AND SOME MINOR WINDS ARE
KEEPING READINGS FLUCTUATING AS WELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
WEAKENING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS ATTEMPTING TO
INTENSIFY A TAD AND SHIFT BACK INTO ALABAMA/GEORGIA. EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY HELP GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON AS WE HEAT UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY GOING BACK UP AS THE COOLER FLOW
IS CUT OFF WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART BUT COULD BE AFFECTED BY SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION
AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR TWO REASONS...ONE AS THE SURFACE LOW RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS
WITH WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STAGNANT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN REASON TWO WILL BE THAT A PIECE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FROM YESTERDAY...SO
I`M FEELING BETTER ABOUT LOWER POPS TUESDAY THRU MID WEEK AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HEAT INDUCED ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  84  67  85  67 /  20  40  30  50  40
ANNISTON    66  84  68  85  68 /  30  50  40  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  67  85  69  86  69 /  30  40  30  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  66  86  69  88  69 /  30  30  30  40  30
CALERA      68  86  69  87  70 /  30  40  30  50  40
AUBURN      68  86  70  86  70 /  20  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  69  89  71  90  71 /  20  40  30  50  40
TROY        68  89  70  88  71 /  20  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 311806
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
106 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES. DRY
AIR BELOW 10 KFT WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE. RADAR IS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY DRY
BELOW 10 KFT AND MOST RAIN PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE SURFACE.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...WHICH WILL
SLIM. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD INCH TOWARD EASTERN
ALABAMA BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE LINE. UPDATES
OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE TERMINAL FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
THROUGHOUT. DID ADD A SMALL TIME FRAME TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE SOME
MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY EAST FOR ANB/MGM/TOI AS SURFACE
DEW POINTS INCREASE FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS
AROUND 5-7 KFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD.
RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN
VERY DRY BELOW 10 KFT AND MOST RAIN PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE
SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL SLIM. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA SHOULD
INCH TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
STATE LINE.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 453 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CIRRUS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EXCEPT NONE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE...AND SOME MINOR WINDS ARE
KEEPING READINGS FLUCTUATING AS WELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
WEAKENING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS ATTEMPTING TO
INTENSIFY A TAD AND SHIFT BACK INTO ALABAMA/GEORGIA. EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY HELP GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON AS WE HEAT UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY GOING BACK UP AS THE COOLER FLOW
IS CUT OFF WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART BUT COULD BE AFFECTED BY SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION
AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR TWO REASONS...ONE AS THE SURFACE LOW RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS
WITH WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STAGNANT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN REASON TWO WILL BE THAT A PIECE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FROM YESTERDAY...SO
I`M FEELING BETTER ABOUT LOWER POPS TUESDAY THRU MID WEEK AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HEAT INDUCED ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  84  67  85  67 /  20  40  30  50  40
ANNISTON    66  84  68  85  68 /  30  50  40  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  67  85  69  86  69 /  30  40  30  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  66  86  69  88  69 /  30  30  30  40  30
CALERA      68  86  69  87  70 /  30  40  30  50  40
AUBURN      68  86  70  86  70 /  20  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  69  89  71  90  71 /  20  40  30  50  40
TROY        68  89  70  88  71 /  20  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 311748 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1248 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1103 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
THIS MORNINGS TEMPERATURES WERE NOT RECORD BREAKING AND ALMOST BACK
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL DAMPEN THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
TO REACH FAR ABOVE 80 DEGREES. THEREFORE...HAD TO LOWER THE TEMPS FOR
TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD BASES ARE HIGHER THIS
MORNING...DID HAVE A FEW TRACES REPORTED WITH MUCH OF THE OTHER
REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR AS VIRGA. WITH MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE NE
SFC FLOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED SO ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THIS AFTN AS WELL.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS
REACHED THE GROUND...THE REST HAS BEEN VIRGA WITH THE HIGH CLOUD
BASES...SO LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 311739 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1239 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION [31.18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE. EASTERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS WAS
EXPANDING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CLOUD BASES ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AT THE BASE OF A
LONG WAVE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WAS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATERS IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE DRY AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE LAYER IS COMPLETELY
MOISTENED TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/OR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH THERE
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND...WITH WEAK LIFT
GIVEN BY THE APPROACH OF EASTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE.
ELSEWHERE...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND THICKEN WITH NO RAIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE FOR LATE JULY...IS MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING SET THIS MORNING AT BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA.

FOR MOBILE...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 63 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1984.

FOR PENSACOLA...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 63 DEGREES...BREAKING THE
OLD RECORD OF 67 SET IN 1936. /10

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES COME TO AN END TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASE. DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS...KEPT
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE EASTERN STATES
LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW
OVER LOUISIANA GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY. A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LIKEWISE
DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES EXTENDS WELL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BUT ADVANCES NORTHWARD
DURING THE PERIOD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. ADDING SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE SURFACE PATTERN IS A
SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
THE TWO SURFACE LOWS ON FRIDAY WHICH IS REPLACED BY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FROM NEAR 1.7 INCHES FRIDAY MORNING TO 2.0-2.1
INCHES ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURES AND STEADILY INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY TRENDING SOMEWHAT HIGHER
TO CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND
FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES. /29

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

MARINE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  68  91  71  92 /  10  05  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   90  72  91  75  92 /  05  05  20  20  40
DESTIN      88  75  89  75  90 /  05  05  20  20  40
EVERGREEN   90  66  90  67  92 /  10  05  30  20  50
WAYNESBORO  89  65  89  67  91 /  20  20  30  20  40
CAMDEN      89  65  89  67  92 /  10  20  30  20  50
CRESTVIEW   92  66  92  68  93 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 311739 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1239 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION [31.18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE. EASTERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS WAS
EXPANDING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CLOUD BASES ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AT THE BASE OF A
LONG WAVE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WAS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATERS IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE DRY AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE LAYER IS COMPLETELY
MOISTENED TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/OR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH THERE
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND...WITH WEAK LIFT
GIVEN BY THE APPROACH OF EASTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE.
ELSEWHERE...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND THICKEN WITH NO RAIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE FOR LATE JULY...IS MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING SET THIS MORNING AT BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA.

FOR MOBILE...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 63 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1984.

FOR PENSACOLA...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 63 DEGREES...BREAKING THE
OLD RECORD OF 67 SET IN 1936. /10

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES COME TO AN END TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASE. DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS...KEPT
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE EASTERN STATES
LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW
OVER LOUISIANA GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY. A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LIKEWISE
DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES EXTENDS WELL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BUT ADVANCES NORTHWARD
DURING THE PERIOD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. ADDING SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE SURFACE PATTERN IS A
SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
THE TWO SURFACE LOWS ON FRIDAY WHICH IS REPLACED BY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FROM NEAR 1.7 INCHES FRIDAY MORNING TO 2.0-2.1
INCHES ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURES AND STEADILY INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY TRENDING SOMEWHAT HIGHER
TO CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND
FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES. /29

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

MARINE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  68  91  71  92 /  10  05  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   90  72  91  75  92 /  05  05  20  20  40
DESTIN      88  75  89  75  90 /  05  05  20  20  40
EVERGREEN   90  66  90  67  92 /  10  05  30  20  50
WAYNESBORO  89  65  89  67  91 /  20  20  30  20  40
CAMDEN      89  65  89  67  92 /  10  20  30  20  50
CRESTVIEW   92  66  92  68  93 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 311619 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1119 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AT THE BASE OF A
LONG WAVE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WAS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATERS IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE DRY AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE LAYER IS COMPLETELY
MOISTENED TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/OR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH THERE
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND...WITH WEAK LIFT
GIVEN BY THE APPROACH OF EASTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE.
ELSEWHERE...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND THICKEN WITH NO RAIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE FOR LATE JULY...IS MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING SET THIS MORNING AT BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA.

FOR MOBILE...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 63 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1984.

FOR PENSACOLA...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 63 DEGREES...BREAKING THE
OLD RECORD OF 67 SET IN 1936. /10

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES COME TO AN END TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASE. DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS...KEPT
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. /13

&&

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE EASTERN STATES
LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW
OVER LOUISIANA GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY. A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LIKEWISE
DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES EXTENDS WELL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BUT ADVANCES NORTHWARD
DURING THE PERIOD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. ADDING SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE SURFACE PATTERN IS A
SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
THE TWO SURFACE LOWS ON FRIDAY WHICH IS REPLACED BY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FROM NEAR 1.7 INCHES FRIDAY MORNING TO 2.0-2.1
INCHES ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURES AND STEADILY INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY TRENDING SOMEWHAT HIGHER
TO CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND
FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES. /29

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

MARINE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  68  91  71  92 /  10  05  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   90  72  91  75  92 /  05  05  20  20  40
DESTIN      88  75  89  75  90 /  05  05  20  20  40
EVERGREEN   90  66  90  67  92 /  10  05  30  20  50
WAYNESBORO  89  65  89  67  91 /  20  20  30  20  40
CAMDEN      89  65  89  67  92 /  10  20  30  20  50
CRESTVIEW   92  66  92  68  93 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 311619 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1119 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AT THE BASE OF A
LONG WAVE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WAS SLIPPING SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATERS IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE DRY AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE LAYER IS COMPLETELY
MOISTENED TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/OR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH THERE
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND...WITH WEAK LIFT
GIVEN BY THE APPROACH OF EASTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE.
ELSEWHERE...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND THICKEN WITH NO RAIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE FOR LATE JULY...IS MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING SET THIS MORNING AT BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA.

FOR MOBILE...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 63 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1984.

FOR PENSACOLA...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 63 DEGREES...BREAKING THE
OLD RECORD OF 67 SET IN 1936. /10

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES COME TO AN END TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASE. DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS...KEPT
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. /13

&&

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE EASTERN STATES
LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW
OVER LOUISIANA GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY. A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LIKEWISE
DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES EXTENDS WELL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BUT ADVANCES NORTHWARD
DURING THE PERIOD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. ADDING SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE SURFACE PATTERN IS A
SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
THE TWO SURFACE LOWS ON FRIDAY WHICH IS REPLACED BY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FROM NEAR 1.7 INCHES FRIDAY MORNING TO 2.0-2.1
INCHES ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURES AND STEADILY INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY TRENDING SOMEWHAT HIGHER
TO CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND
FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES. /29

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

MARINE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  68  91  71  92 /  10  05  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   90  72  91  75  92 /  05  05  20  20  40
DESTIN      88  75  89  75  90 /  05  05  20  20  40
EVERGREEN   90  66  90  67  92 /  10  05  30  20  50
WAYNESBORO  89  65  89  67  91 /  20  20  30  20  40
CAMDEN      89  65  89  67  92 /  10  20  30  20  50
CRESTVIEW   92  66  92  68  93 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 311603 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1103 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND WX FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS TEMPERATURES WERE NOT RECORD BREAKING AND ALMOST BACK
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL DAMPEN THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
TO REACH FAR ABOVE 80 DEGREES. THEREFORE...HAD TO LOWER THE TEMPS FOR
TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD BASES ARE HIGHER THIS
MORNING...DID HAVE A FEW TRACES REPORTED WITH MUCH OF THE OTHER
REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR AS VIRGA. WITH MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE NE
SFC FLOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED SO ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THIS AFTN AS WELL.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH SPARSE COVERAGE THRU TONIGHT AT
KMSL/KHSV, DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE VCSH. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH, SO HAVE ADDED
A VCSH BEGINNING AT 11Z FRIDAY MORNING.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE
THE UPPER WX PATTERN IS STILL THE SAME WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
STATES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS AN UPPER
WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
SRN GA. 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM OHX/BMX WERE FAIRLY DRY THUS NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN TODAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHRA WILL BE THIS
AFTN.

BY THE AFTN THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING...EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW OVER GA AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A 20 POP
FOR SHRA ACROSS THE CWA. FOR TONIGHT THE CHC OF PCPN STILL DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT BUT WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP...AGAIN THANKS TO THE
EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT AND WITH VERY WEAK
INSTABILITIES WILL KEEP ALL PCPN AS SHRA.

FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AN INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCT SHRA/TSRA. NO SEVERE WX EXPECTED THRU THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM IF ANY AT ALL. THUS
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311603 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1103 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND WX FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS TEMPERATURES WERE NOT RECORD BREAKING AND ALMOST BACK
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL DAMPEN THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
TO REACH FAR ABOVE 80 DEGREES. THEREFORE...HAD TO LOWER THE TEMPS FOR
TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD BASES ARE HIGHER THIS
MORNING...DID HAVE A FEW TRACES REPORTED WITH MUCH OF THE OTHER
REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR AS VIRGA. WITH MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE NE
SFC FLOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED SO ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THIS AFTN AS WELL.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH SPARSE COVERAGE THRU TONIGHT AT
KMSL/KHSV, DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE VCSH. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH, SO HAVE ADDED
A VCSH BEGINNING AT 11Z FRIDAY MORNING.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE
THE UPPER WX PATTERN IS STILL THE SAME WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
STATES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS AN UPPER
WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
SRN GA. 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM OHX/BMX WERE FAIRLY DRY THUS NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN TODAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHRA WILL BE THIS
AFTN.

BY THE AFTN THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING...EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW OVER GA AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A 20 POP
FOR SHRA ACROSS THE CWA. FOR TONIGHT THE CHC OF PCPN STILL DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT BUT WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP...AGAIN THANKS TO THE
EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT AND WITH VERY WEAK
INSTABILITIES WILL KEEP ALL PCPN AS SHRA.

FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AN INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCT SHRA/TSRA. NO SEVERE WX EXPECTED THRU THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM IF ANY AT ALL. THUS
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CIRRUS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EXCEPT NONE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE...AND SOME MINOR WINDS ARE
KEEPING READINGS FLUCTUATING AS WELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
WEAKENING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS ATTEMPTING TO
INTENSIFY A TAD AND SHIFT BACK INTO ALABAMA/GEORGIA. EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY HELP GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON AS WE HEAT UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY GOING BACK UP AS THE COOLER FLOW
IS CUT OFF WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART BUT COULD BE AFFECTED BY SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION
AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR TWO REASONS...ONE AS THE SURFACE LOW RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS
WITH WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STAGNANT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN REASON TWO WILL BE THAT A PIECE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FROM YESTERDAY...SO
I`M FEELING BETTER ABOUT LOWER POPS TUESDAY THRU MID WEEK AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HEAT INDUCED ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. SOME MODELS INDICATE A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION FOR ANY SITES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87





000
FXUS64 KBMX 311148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CIRRUS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EXCEPT NONE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE...AND SOME MINOR WINDS ARE
KEEPING READINGS FLUCTUATING AS WELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
WEAKENING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS ATTEMPTING TO
INTENSIFY A TAD AND SHIFT BACK INTO ALABAMA/GEORGIA. EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY HELP GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON AS WE HEAT UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY GOING BACK UP AS THE COOLER FLOW
IS CUT OFF WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART BUT COULD BE AFFECTED BY SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION
AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR TWO REASONS...ONE AS THE SURFACE LOW RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS
WITH WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STAGNANT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN REASON TWO WILL BE THAT A PIECE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FROM YESTERDAY...SO
I`M FEELING BETTER ABOUT LOWER POPS TUESDAY THRU MID WEEK AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HEAT INDUCED ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. SOME MODELS INDICATE A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION FOR ANY SITES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87






000
FXUS64 KHUN 311118 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE
THE UPPER WX PATTERN IS STILL THE SAME WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
STATES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS AN UPPER
WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
SRN GA. 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM OHX/BMX WERE FAIRLY DRY THUS NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN TODAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHRA WILL BE THIS
AFTN.

BY THE AFTN THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING...EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW OVER GA AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A 20 POP
FOR SHRA ACROSS THE CWA. FOR TONIGHT THE CHC OF PCPN STILL DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT BUT WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP...AGAIN THANKS TO THE
EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT AND WITH VERY WEAK
INSTABILITIES WILL KEEP ALL PCPN AS SHRA.

FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AN INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCT SHRA/TSRA. NO SEVERE WX EXPECTED THRU THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM IF ANY AT ALL. THUS
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH SPARSE COVERAGE THRU TONIGHT AT
KMSL/KHSV, DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE VCSH. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH, SO HAVE ADDED
A VCSH BEGINNING AT 11Z FRIDAY MORNING.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311118 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE
THE UPPER WX PATTERN IS STILL THE SAME WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
STATES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS AN UPPER
WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
SRN GA. 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM OHX/BMX WERE FAIRLY DRY THUS NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN TODAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHRA WILL BE THIS
AFTN.

BY THE AFTN THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING...EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW OVER GA AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A 20 POP
FOR SHRA ACROSS THE CWA. FOR TONIGHT THE CHC OF PCPN STILL DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT BUT WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP...AGAIN THANKS TO THE
EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT AND WITH VERY WEAK
INSTABILITIES WILL KEEP ALL PCPN AS SHRA.

FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AN INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCT SHRA/TSRA. NO SEVERE WX EXPECTED THRU THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM IF ANY AT ALL. THUS
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH SPARSE COVERAGE THRU TONIGHT AT
KMSL/KHSV, DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE VCSH. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH, SO HAVE ADDED
A VCSH BEGINNING AT 11Z FRIDAY MORNING.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 310953
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
453 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CIRRUS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EXCEPT NONE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE...AND SOME MINOR WINDS ARE
KEEPING READINGS FLUCTUATING AS WELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
WEAKENING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS ATTEMPTING TO
INTENSIFY A TAD AND SHIFT BACK INTO ALABAMA/GEORGIA. EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY HELP GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON AS WE HEAT UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY GOING BACK UP AS THE COOLER FLOW
IS CUT OFF WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART BUT COULD BE AFFECTED BY SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION
AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR TWO REASONS...ONE AS THE SURFACE LOW RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS
WITH WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STAGNANT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN REASON TWO WILL BE THAT A PIECE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FROM YESTERDAY...SO
I`M FEELING BETTER ABOUT LOWER POPS TUESDAY THRU MID WEEK AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HEAT INDUCED ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
BUILD DOWN TOMORROW WITH SOME CEILINGS OF 10K POSSIBLE LATE IN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR ANB LATE AFTERNOON AS AN EASTERLY WAVE BRINGS
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN IN THE ANB TAF BUT BRING THE
CEILINGS DOWN TO 5K.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  66  84  67  85 /  20  20  40  30  50
ANNISTON    84  66  84  68  85 /  20  30  50  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  85  67  85  69  86 /  20  30  40  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  86  66  86  69  88 /  20  30  30  30  40
CALERA      86  68  86  69  87 /  20  30  40  30  50
AUBURN      87  68  86  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  50
MONTGOMERY  90  69  89  71  90 /  10  20  40  30  50
TROY        89  68  89  70  88 /  10  20  40  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/88





000
FXUS64 KBMX 310953
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
453 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CIRRUS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EXCEPT NONE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE...AND SOME MINOR WINDS ARE
KEEPING READINGS FLUCTUATING AS WELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
WEAKENING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS ATTEMPTING TO
INTENSIFY A TAD AND SHIFT BACK INTO ALABAMA/GEORGIA. EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY HELP GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON AS WE HEAT UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY GOING BACK UP AS THE COOLER FLOW
IS CUT OFF WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART BUT COULD BE AFFECTED BY SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION
AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR TWO REASONS...ONE AS THE SURFACE LOW RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS
WITH WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STAGNANT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN REASON TWO WILL BE THAT A PIECE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FROM YESTERDAY...SO
I`M FEELING BETTER ABOUT LOWER POPS TUESDAY THRU MID WEEK AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HEAT INDUCED ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
BUILD DOWN TOMORROW WITH SOME CEILINGS OF 10K POSSIBLE LATE IN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR ANB LATE AFTERNOON AS AN EASTERLY WAVE BRINGS
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN IN THE ANB TAF BUT BRING THE
CEILINGS DOWN TO 5K.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  66  84  67  85 /  20  20  40  30  50
ANNISTON    84  66  84  68  85 /  20  30  50  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  85  67  85  69  86 /  20  30  40  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  86  66  86  69  88 /  20  30  30  30  40
CALERA      86  68  86  69  87 /  20  30  40  30  50
AUBURN      87  68  86  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  50
MONTGOMERY  90  69  89  71  90 /  10  20  40  30  50
TROY        89  68  89  70  88 /  10  20  40  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/88





000
FXUS64 KBMX 310953
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
453 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CIRRUS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EXCEPT NONE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE...AND SOME MINOR WINDS ARE
KEEPING READINGS FLUCTUATING AS WELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
WEAKENING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS ATTEMPTING TO
INTENSIFY A TAD AND SHIFT BACK INTO ALABAMA/GEORGIA. EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY HELP GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON AS WE HEAT UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY GOING BACK UP AS THE COOLER FLOW
IS CUT OFF WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART BUT COULD BE AFFECTED BY SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION
AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR TWO REASONS...ONE AS THE SURFACE LOW RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS
WITH WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STAGNANT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN REASON TWO WILL BE THAT A PIECE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FROM YESTERDAY...SO
I`M FEELING BETTER ABOUT LOWER POPS TUESDAY THRU MID WEEK AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HEAT INDUCED ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
BUILD DOWN TOMORROW WITH SOME CEILINGS OF 10K POSSIBLE LATE IN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR ANB LATE AFTERNOON AS AN EASTERLY WAVE BRINGS
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN IN THE ANB TAF BUT BRING THE
CEILINGS DOWN TO 5K.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  66  84  67  85 /  20  20  40  30  50
ANNISTON    84  66  84  68  85 /  20  30  50  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  85  67  85  69  86 /  20  30  40  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  86  66  86  69  88 /  20  30  30  30  40
CALERA      86  68  86  69  87 /  20  30  40  30  50
AUBURN      87  68  86  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  50
MONTGOMERY  90  69  89  71  90 /  10  20  40  30  50
TROY        89  68  89  70  88 /  10  20  40  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/88





000
FXUS64 KBMX 310953
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
453 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CIRRUS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EXCEPT NONE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE...AND SOME MINOR WINDS ARE
KEEPING READINGS FLUCTUATING AS WELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
WEAKENING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS ATTEMPTING TO
INTENSIFY A TAD AND SHIFT BACK INTO ALABAMA/GEORGIA. EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY HELP GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON AS WE HEAT UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY GOING BACK UP AS THE COOLER FLOW
IS CUT OFF WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART BUT COULD BE AFFECTED BY SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION
AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR TWO REASONS...ONE AS THE SURFACE LOW RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS
WITH WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STAGNANT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN REASON TWO WILL BE THAT A PIECE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG DECENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN WITH A FLATTENING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WITH VERY WEAK FLOW IN BETWEEN AS WE MOVE INTO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FROM YESTERDAY...SO
I`M FEELING BETTER ABOUT LOWER POPS TUESDAY THRU MID WEEK AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HEAT INDUCED ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
BUILD DOWN TOMORROW WITH SOME CEILINGS OF 10K POSSIBLE LATE IN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR ANB LATE AFTERNOON AS AN EASTERLY WAVE BRINGS
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN IN THE ANB TAF BUT BRING THE
CEILINGS DOWN TO 5K.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  66  84  67  85 /  20  20  40  30  50
ANNISTON    84  66  84  68  85 /  20  30  50  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  85  67  85  69  86 /  20  30  40  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  86  66  86  69  88 /  20  30  30  30  40
CALERA      86  68  86  69  87 /  20  30  40  30  50
AUBURN      87  68  86  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  50
MONTGOMERY  90  69  89  71  90 /  10  20  40  30  50
TROY        89  68  89  70  88 /  10  20  40  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/88





000
FXUS64 KHUN 310844
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE
THE UPPER WX PATTERN IS STILL THE SAME WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
STATES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS AN UPPER
WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
SRN GA. 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM OHX/BMX WERE FAIRLY DRY THUS NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN TODAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHRA WILL BE THIS
AFTN.

BY THE AFTN THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING...EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW OVER GA AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A 20 POP
FOR SHRA ACROSS THE CWA. FOR TONIGHT THE CHC OF PCPN STILL DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT BUT WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP...AGAIN THANKS TO THE
EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT AND WITH VERY WEAK
INSTABILITIES WILL KEEP ALL PCPN AS SHRA.

FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AN INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCT SHRA/TSRA. NO SEVERE WX EXPECTED THRU THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM IF ANY AT ALL. THUS
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1217 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE PREDOM XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WNW...AS AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
SFC FLOW SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT/VAR AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE ENE.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    84  64  85  66 /  20  20  50  30
SHOALS        85  65  86  67 /  20  20  30  30
VINEMONT      84  65  85  66 /  20  20  50  30
FAYETTEVILLE  82  64  83  65 /  20  20  50  30
ALBERTVILLE   82  64  83  66 /  20  20  50  30
FORT PAYNE    83  63  83  65 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310844
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE
THE UPPER WX PATTERN IS STILL THE SAME WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
STATES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS AN UPPER
WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
SRN GA. 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM OHX/BMX WERE FAIRLY DRY THUS NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN TODAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHRA WILL BE THIS
AFTN.

BY THE AFTN THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING...EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW OVER GA AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A 20 POP
FOR SHRA ACROSS THE CWA. FOR TONIGHT THE CHC OF PCPN STILL DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT BUT WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP...AGAIN THANKS TO THE
EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT AND WITH VERY WEAK
INSTABILITIES WILL KEEP ALL PCPN AS SHRA.

FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AN INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCT SHRA/TSRA. NO SEVERE WX EXPECTED THRU THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM IF ANY AT ALL. THUS
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1217 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE PREDOM XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WNW...AS AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
SFC FLOW SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT/VAR AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE ENE.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    84  64  85  66 /  20  20  50  30
SHOALS        85  65  86  67 /  20  20  30  30
VINEMONT      84  65  85  66 /  20  20  50  30
FAYETTEVILLE  82  64  83  65 /  20  20  50  30
ALBERTVILLE   82  64  83  66 /  20  20  50  30
FORT PAYNE    83  63  83  65 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 310828
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
328 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOBILE AND PENSACOLA BOTH BROKE
RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING AS AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL COME TO AN END
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASE. MID AND HIGH
LEVELS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE...A RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW TODAY. DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS...KEPT MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE EASTERN STATES
LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW
OVER LOUISIANA GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY WHILE A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LIKEWISE
DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES EXTENDS WELL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BUT ADVANCES NORTHWARD
DURING THE PERIOD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. ADDING SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE SURFACE PATTERN IS A
SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
THE TWO SURFACE LOWS ON FRIDAY WHICH IS REPLACED BY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FROM NEAR 1.7 INCHES FRIDAY MORNING TO 2.0-2.1
INCHES ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURES AND STEADILY INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY TRENDING SOMEWHAT HIGHER
TO CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND
FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES. /29

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE COAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND NOT SATISFY OTHER CRITERIA.  AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  68  91  71  92 /  10  05  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   90  72  91  75  92 /  05  05  20  20  40
DESTIN      88  75  89  75  90 /  05  05  20  20  40
EVERGREEN   90  66  90  67  92 /  10  05  30  20  50
WAYNESBORO  89  65  89  67  91 /  20  20  30  20  40
CAMDEN      89  65  89  67  92 /  10  20  30  20  50
CRESTVIEW   92  66  92  68  93 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 310828
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
328 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOBILE AND PENSACOLA BOTH BROKE
RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING AS AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL COME TO AN END
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASE. MID AND HIGH
LEVELS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE...A RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW TODAY. DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS...KEPT MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE EASTERN STATES
LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW
OVER LOUISIANA GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY WHILE A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LIKEWISE
DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES EXTENDS WELL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BUT ADVANCES NORTHWARD
DURING THE PERIOD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. ADDING SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE SURFACE PATTERN IS A
SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
THE TWO SURFACE LOWS ON FRIDAY WHICH IS REPLACED BY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FROM NEAR 1.7 INCHES FRIDAY MORNING TO 2.0-2.1
INCHES ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURES AND STEADILY INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY TRENDING SOMEWHAT HIGHER
TO CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND
FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES. /29

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE COAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND NOT SATISFY OTHER CRITERIA.  AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  68  91  71  92 /  10  05  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   90  72  91  75  92 /  05  05  20  20  40
DESTIN      88  75  89  75  90 /  05  05  20  20  40
EVERGREEN   90  66  90  67  92 /  10  05  30  20  50
WAYNESBORO  89  65  89  67  91 /  20  20  30  20  40
CAMDEN      89  65  89  67  92 /  10  20  30  20  50
CRESTVIEW   92  66  92  68  93 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 310517 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1217 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 914 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
QUIET WX AGAIN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY AREA THIS LATE WED
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WNW AS AN UPPER SHRTWV TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. AREA RADARS W ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS PERHAPS CROSSING
THE MS RIVER...ALTHOUGH IT`S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER MUCH OF THIS PRECIP
IS REACHING THE SFC INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WRN TN/MS. CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA...LIGHT NLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOME SPOTS THX IN PART
TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE ENE.
THIS VERY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ALBEIT THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL MAKE THIS TRANSITION SOMEWHAT TOUGH. NEVERTHELESS...WITH TEMP
TRENDS IN SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S RANGE...TEMPS
FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT HEADING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS...ESPECIALLY WITH DEW PTS NEAR 60. THIS STILL WILL
TRANSLATE INTO AN UNSEASONABLY COOL THU MORNING...ALTHOUGH NOTHING OF
THE MAGNITUDE SEEN WITH THE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING. FORECAST GRIDS
LOOK TO HAVE THIS PATTERN REPRESENTED FAIRLY WELL...AND OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR EDITS ON SOME OF THE HOURLY GRIDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE PREDOM XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WNW...AS AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
SFC FLOW SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT/VAR AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE ENE.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 310517 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1217 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 914 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
QUIET WX AGAIN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY AREA THIS LATE WED
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WNW AS AN UPPER SHRTWV TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. AREA RADARS W ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS PERHAPS CROSSING
THE MS RIVER...ALTHOUGH IT`S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER MUCH OF THIS PRECIP
IS REACHING THE SFC INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WRN TN/MS. CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA...LIGHT NLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOME SPOTS THX IN PART
TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE ENE.
THIS VERY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ALBEIT THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL MAKE THIS TRANSITION SOMEWHAT TOUGH. NEVERTHELESS...WITH TEMP
TRENDS IN SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S RANGE...TEMPS
FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT HEADING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS...ESPECIALLY WITH DEW PTS NEAR 60. THIS STILL WILL
TRANSLATE INTO AN UNSEASONABLY COOL THU MORNING...ALTHOUGH NOTHING OF
THE MAGNITUDE SEEN WITH THE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING. FORECAST GRIDS
LOOK TO HAVE THIS PATTERN REPRESENTED FAIRLY WELL...AND OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR EDITS ON SOME OF THE HOURLY GRIDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE PREDOM XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WNW...AS AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
SFC FLOW SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT/VAR AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE ENE.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 310451
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT MOSTLY NORTH WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. RADAR IS FREE OF RETURNS
EXCEPT FOR SOME WEAK RETURNS COMING FROM HIGH CLOUDS WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. SUSPECT THESE RETURNS INDICATE VIRGA. OVER THE GULF THERE
ARE SOME EVEN WEAKER RETURNS FROM CLOUDS SUSPECT AS NOT
PRECIPITATING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURE IS DROPPING A LITTLE SLOWLY AS IT DID LAST NIGHT BUT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WIND AT A DEAD CALM...IT SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITOUS
DROP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE FOR 31.00Z...OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REGION WIDE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES
TO BEGIN THE NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THE
FORECAST IS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THICKER CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IF THIS EVOLUTION
HOLDS TRUE...CLOUDS WILL NOT IMPACT LOWS ALL THAT MUCH...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SE MS. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVER
INCREASES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LOW TEMPS MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 60S AT
THE BEACHES. HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING...

RECORDS FOR JULY 31ST

MOBILE: 66/1984
PENSACOLA: 67/1936

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DESPITE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AL/MS...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER SE MS...BUT NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WHICH
YIELDS UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INSTEAD OF LOW TO MID 90S AS THE MAV
SUGGESTS. 34/JFB

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE FA SWINGS AWAY IN
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FA DRAWS BACK NORTH...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS IS MOSTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS...LEAVING A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 10K` FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPS AGAIN BELOW SEASONAL...THOUGH WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...NOT QUITE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH...BUT STAYS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE FA TO BE A NON-FACTOR IN
THE WEATHER. THE DAY DOES WARM ENOUGH TO FORM A WEAK-HEAT INDUCED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE FA. WITH TEMPS AT OR A SKOSH ABOVE SEASONAL...I
BELIEVE IT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH...BECOMING CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO MOVE TOWARDS OR OVER
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORN. THE FA REMAINS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP FORMATION OVER
MOST OF THE FA. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL DUE TOT HE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS WHILE ADVANCING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY.  THE
SURFACE-850 MB LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY MAKES LITTLE
PROGRESS EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THEN
DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A ROUGHLY CONVERGENT FLOW
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN
STATES AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
THEN TRENDS LOWER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROF ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD. HAVE
STAYED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY THEN CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY WITH THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES. /29

AVIATION...
(18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. 34/JFB

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN BY THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  90  68  91  71 /  00  10  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   67  90  71  91  73 /  00  05  10  30  20
DESTIN      70  89  73  90  76 /  00  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   58  90  65  92  71 /  00  05  10  30  30
WAYNESBORO  61  89  62  90  68 /  00  10  20  30  30
CAMDEN      59  89  65  91  70 /  00  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   56  92  64  92  71 /  00  05  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 310451
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT MOSTLY NORTH WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. RADAR IS FREE OF RETURNS
EXCEPT FOR SOME WEAK RETURNS COMING FROM HIGH CLOUDS WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. SUSPECT THESE RETURNS INDICATE VIRGA. OVER THE GULF THERE
ARE SOME EVEN WEAKER RETURNS FROM CLOUDS SUSPECT AS NOT
PRECIPITATING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURE IS DROPPING A LITTLE SLOWLY AS IT DID LAST NIGHT BUT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WIND AT A DEAD CALM...IT SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITOUS
DROP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE FOR 31.00Z...OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REGION WIDE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES
TO BEGIN THE NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THE
FORECAST IS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THICKER CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IF THIS EVOLUTION
HOLDS TRUE...CLOUDS WILL NOT IMPACT LOWS ALL THAT MUCH...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SE MS. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVER
INCREASES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LOW TEMPS MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 60S AT
THE BEACHES. HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING...

RECORDS FOR JULY 31ST

MOBILE: 66/1984
PENSACOLA: 67/1936

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DESPITE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AL/MS...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER SE MS...BUT NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WHICH
YIELDS UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INSTEAD OF LOW TO MID 90S AS THE MAV
SUGGESTS. 34/JFB

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE FA SWINGS AWAY IN
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FA DRAWS BACK NORTH...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS IS MOSTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS...LEAVING A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 10K` FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPS AGAIN BELOW SEASONAL...THOUGH WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...NOT QUITE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH...BUT STAYS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE FA TO BE A NON-FACTOR IN
THE WEATHER. THE DAY DOES WARM ENOUGH TO FORM A WEAK-HEAT INDUCED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE FA. WITH TEMPS AT OR A SKOSH ABOVE SEASONAL...I
BELIEVE IT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH...BECOMING CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO MOVE TOWARDS OR OVER
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORN. THE FA REMAINS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP FORMATION OVER
MOST OF THE FA. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL DUE TOT HE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS WHILE ADVANCING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY.  THE
SURFACE-850 MB LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY MAKES LITTLE
PROGRESS EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THEN
DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A ROUGHLY CONVERGENT FLOW
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN
STATES AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
THEN TRENDS LOWER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROF ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD. HAVE
STAYED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY THEN CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY WITH THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES. /29

AVIATION...
(18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. 34/JFB

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN BY THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  90  68  91  71 /  00  10  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   67  90  71  91  73 /  00  05  10  30  20
DESTIN      70  89  73  90  76 /  00  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   58  90  65  92  71 /  00  05  10  30  30
WAYNESBORO  61  89  62  90  68 /  00  10  20  30  30
CAMDEN      59  89  65  91  70 /  00  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   56  92  64  92  71 /  00  05  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 310401
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1101 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN RAIN AND STORMS WELL TO OUR
WEST ACROSS ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST...REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND HAVE SLOWED THE POST SUNSET COOLING. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH HAS BROUGHT OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. HAVE UPDATED THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORDS AGAIN TONIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW LIFT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. LIFT IS VERY WEAK
THOUGH...AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VRF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
BUILD DOWN TOMORROW WITH SOME CEILINGS OF 10K POSSIBLE LATE IN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR ANB LATE AFTERNOON AS AN EASTERLY WAVE BRINGS
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN IN THE ANB TAF BUT BRING THE
CEILINGS DOWN TO 5K.

88

&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BELOW IS THE UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR JULY 31. ANNISTON STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE TO BREAK THE RECORD AS CIRRUS WILL BE THINNER ACROSS THE
EAST.

               JULY 31    CURRENT
SITE        FORECAST LOW  RECORD    YEAR
----------  ------------  --------  ----
ANNISTON         64          60     1965
BIRMINGHAM       68          59     1965
MONTGOMERY       65          62     1936
TUSCALOOSA       66          62     1994*

* RECORDS FOR TUSCALOOSA THAT APPEAR IN CURRENT DATABASES ON-LINE
HAVE SPORADIC DATA MISSING FROM 1994 TO 1999. HOWEVER SOME DATA FOR
SPECIFIC DAYS HAVE BEEN IMPORTED INTO OUR CLIMATE PROGRAM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL YEARS. THIS DATA IS ACCURATE BUT IS CURRENTLY
UNAVAILABLE ON-LINE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY DISCREPANCIES AND ARE
WORKING TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 310401
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1101 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN RAIN AND STORMS WELL TO OUR
WEST ACROSS ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST...REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND HAVE SLOWED THE POST SUNSET COOLING. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH HAS BROUGHT OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. HAVE UPDATED THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORDS AGAIN TONIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW LIFT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. LIFT IS VERY WEAK
THOUGH...AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VRF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
BUILD DOWN TOMORROW WITH SOME CEILINGS OF 10K POSSIBLE LATE IN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR ANB LATE AFTERNOON AS AN EASTERLY WAVE BRINGS
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN IN THE ANB TAF BUT BRING THE
CEILINGS DOWN TO 5K.

88

&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BELOW IS THE UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR JULY 31. ANNISTON STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE TO BREAK THE RECORD AS CIRRUS WILL BE THINNER ACROSS THE
EAST.

               JULY 31    CURRENT
SITE        FORECAST LOW  RECORD    YEAR
----------  ------------  --------  ----
ANNISTON         64          60     1965
BIRMINGHAM       68          59     1965
MONTGOMERY       65          62     1936
TUSCALOOSA       66          62     1994*

* RECORDS FOR TUSCALOOSA THAT APPEAR IN CURRENT DATABASES ON-LINE
HAVE SPORADIC DATA MISSING FROM 1994 TO 1999. HOWEVER SOME DATA FOR
SPECIFIC DAYS HAVE BEEN IMPORTED INTO OUR CLIMATE PROGRAM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL YEARS. THIS DATA IS ACCURATE BUT IS CURRENTLY
UNAVAILABLE ON-LINE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY DISCREPANCIES AND ARE
WORKING TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 310401
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1101 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN RAIN AND STORMS WELL TO OUR
WEST ACROSS ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST...REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND HAVE SLOWED THE POST SUNSET COOLING. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH HAS BROUGHT OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. HAVE UPDATED THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORDS AGAIN TONIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW LIFT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. LIFT IS VERY WEAK
THOUGH...AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VRF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
BUILD DOWN TOMORROW WITH SOME CEILINGS OF 10K POSSIBLE LATE IN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR ANB LATE AFTERNOON AS AN EASTERLY WAVE BRINGS
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN IN THE ANB TAF BUT BRING THE
CEILINGS DOWN TO 5K.

88

&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BELOW IS THE UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR JULY 31. ANNISTON STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE TO BREAK THE RECORD AS CIRRUS WILL BE THINNER ACROSS THE
EAST.

               JULY 31    CURRENT
SITE        FORECAST LOW  RECORD    YEAR
----------  ------------  --------  ----
ANNISTON         64          60     1965
BIRMINGHAM       68          59     1965
MONTGOMERY       65          62     1936
TUSCALOOSA       66          62     1994*

* RECORDS FOR TUSCALOOSA THAT APPEAR IN CURRENT DATABASES ON-LINE
HAVE SPORADIC DATA MISSING FROM 1994 TO 1999. HOWEVER SOME DATA FOR
SPECIFIC DAYS HAVE BEEN IMPORTED INTO OUR CLIMATE PROGRAM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL YEARS. THIS DATA IS ACCURATE BUT IS CURRENTLY
UNAVAILABLE ON-LINE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY DISCREPANCIES AND ARE
WORKING TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 310401
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1101 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN RAIN AND STORMS WELL TO OUR
WEST ACROSS ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST...REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND HAVE SLOWED THE POST SUNSET COOLING. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH HAS BROUGHT OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. HAVE UPDATED THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORDS AGAIN TONIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW LIFT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. LIFT IS VERY WEAK
THOUGH...AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VRF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
BUILD DOWN TOMORROW WITH SOME CEILINGS OF 10K POSSIBLE LATE IN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR ANB LATE AFTERNOON AS AN EASTERLY WAVE BRINGS
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN IN THE ANB TAF BUT BRING THE
CEILINGS DOWN TO 5K.

88

&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BELOW IS THE UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR JULY 31. ANNISTON STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE TO BREAK THE RECORD AS CIRRUS WILL BE THINNER ACROSS THE
EAST.

               JULY 31    CURRENT
SITE        FORECAST LOW  RECORD    YEAR
----------  ------------  --------  ----
ANNISTON         64          60     1965
BIRMINGHAM       68          59     1965
MONTGOMERY       65          62     1936
TUSCALOOSA       66          62     1994*

* RECORDS FOR TUSCALOOSA THAT APPEAR IN CURRENT DATABASES ON-LINE
HAVE SPORADIC DATA MISSING FROM 1994 TO 1999. HOWEVER SOME DATA FOR
SPECIFIC DAYS HAVE BEEN IMPORTED INTO OUR CLIMATE PROGRAM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL YEARS. THIS DATA IS ACCURATE BUT IS CURRENTLY
UNAVAILABLE ON-LINE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY DISCREPANCIES AND ARE
WORKING TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 310352 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
936 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. RADAR IS FREE OF RETURNS
EXCEPT FOR SOME WEAK RETURNS COMING FROM HIGH CLOUDS WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. SUSPECT THESE RETURNS INDICATE VIRGA. OVER THE GULF THERE
ARE SOME EVEN WEAKER RETURNS FROM CLOUDS SUSPECT AS NOT
PRECIPITATING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURE IS DROPPING A LITTLE SLOWLY AS IT DID LAST NIGHT BUT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WIND AT A DEAD CALM...IT SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITOUS
DROP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE FOR 31.00Z...OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REGION WIDE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES
TO BEGIN THE NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THE
FORECAST IS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THICKER CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IF THIS EVOLUTION
HOLDS TRUE...CLOUDS WILL NOT IMPACT LOWS ALL THAT MUCH...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SE MS. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVER
INCREASES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LOW TEMPS MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 60S AT
THE BEACHES. HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING...

RECORDS FOR JULY 31ST

MOBILE: 66/1984
PENSACOLA: 67/1936

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DESPITE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AL/MS...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER SE MS...BUT NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WHICH
YIELDS UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INSTEAD OF LOW TO MID 90S AS THE MAV
SUGGESTS. 34/JFB

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE FA SWINGS AWAY IN
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FA DRAWS BACK NORTH...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS IS MOSTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS...LEAVING A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 10K` FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPS AGAIN BELOW SEASONAL...THOUGH WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...NOT QUITE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH...BUT STAYS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE FA TO BE A NON-FACTOR IN
THE WEATHER. THE DAY DOES WARM ENOUGH TO FORM A WEAK-HEAT INDUCED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE FA. WITH TEMPS AT OR A SKOSH ABOVE SEASONAL...I
BELIEVE IT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH...BECOMING CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO MOVE TOWARDS OR OVER
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORN. THE FA REMAINS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP FORMATION OVER
MOST OF THE FA. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL DUE TOT HE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS WHILE ADVANCING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY.  THE
SURFACE-850 MB LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY MAKES LITTLE
PROGRESS EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THEN
DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A ROUGHLY CONVERGENT FLOW
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN
STATES AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
THEN TRENDS LOWER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROF ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD. HAVE
STAYED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY THEN CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY WITH THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES. /29

AVIATION...
(18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. 34/JFB

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN BY THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  90  68  91  71 /  00  10  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   67  90  71  91  73 /  00  05  10  30  20
DESTIN      70  89  73  90  76 /  00  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   58  90  65  92  71 /  00  05  10  30  30
WAYNESBORO  61  89  62  90  68 /  00  10  20  30  30
CAMDEN      59  89  65  91  70 /  00  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   56  92  64  92  71 /  00  05  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 310352 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
936 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. RADAR IS FREE OF RETURNS
EXCEPT FOR SOME WEAK RETURNS COMING FROM HIGH CLOUDS WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. SUSPECT THESE RETURNS INDICATE VIRGA. OVER THE GULF THERE
ARE SOME EVEN WEAKER RETURNS FROM CLOUDS SUSPECT AS NOT
PRECIPITATING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURE IS DROPPING A LITTLE SLOWLY AS IT DID LAST NIGHT BUT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WIND AT A DEAD CALM...IT SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITOUS
DROP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE FOR 31.00Z...OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REGION WIDE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES
TO BEGIN THE NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THE
FORECAST IS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THICKER CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IF THIS EVOLUTION
HOLDS TRUE...CLOUDS WILL NOT IMPACT LOWS ALL THAT MUCH...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SE MS. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVER
INCREASES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LOW TEMPS MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 60S AT
THE BEACHES. HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING...

RECORDS FOR JULY 31ST

MOBILE: 66/1984
PENSACOLA: 67/1936

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DESPITE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AL/MS...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER SE MS...BUT NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WHICH
YIELDS UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INSTEAD OF LOW TO MID 90S AS THE MAV
SUGGESTS. 34/JFB

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE FA SWINGS AWAY IN
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FA DRAWS BACK NORTH...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS IS MOSTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS...LEAVING A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 10K` FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPS AGAIN BELOW SEASONAL...THOUGH WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...NOT QUITE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH...BUT STAYS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE FA TO BE A NON-FACTOR IN
THE WEATHER. THE DAY DOES WARM ENOUGH TO FORM A WEAK-HEAT INDUCED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE FA. WITH TEMPS AT OR A SKOSH ABOVE SEASONAL...I
BELIEVE IT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH...BECOMING CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO MOVE TOWARDS OR OVER
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORN. THE FA REMAINS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP FORMATION OVER
MOST OF THE FA. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL DUE TOT HE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS WHILE ADVANCING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY.  THE
SURFACE-850 MB LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY MAKES LITTLE
PROGRESS EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THEN
DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A ROUGHLY CONVERGENT FLOW
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN
STATES AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
THEN TRENDS LOWER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROF ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD. HAVE
STAYED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY THEN CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY WITH THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES. /29

AVIATION...
(18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. 34/JFB

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN BY THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  90  68  91  71 /  00  10  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   67  90  71  91  73 /  00  05  10  30  20
DESTIN      70  89  73  90  76 /  00  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   58  90  65  92  71 /  00  05  10  30  30
WAYNESBORO  61  89  62  90  68 /  00  10  20  30  30
CAMDEN      59  89  65  91  70 /  00  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   56  92  64  92  71 /  00  05  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 310352 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
936 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. RADAR IS FREE OF RETURNS
EXCEPT FOR SOME WEAK RETURNS COMING FROM HIGH CLOUDS WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. SUSPECT THESE RETURNS INDICATE VIRGA. OVER THE GULF THERE
ARE SOME EVEN WEAKER RETURNS FROM CLOUDS SUSPECT AS NOT
PRECIPITATING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURE IS DROPPING A LITTLE SLOWLY AS IT DID LAST NIGHT BUT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WIND AT A DEAD CALM...IT SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITOUS
DROP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE FOR 31.00Z...OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REGION WIDE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES
TO BEGIN THE NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THE
FORECAST IS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THICKER CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IF THIS EVOLUTION
HOLDS TRUE...CLOUDS WILL NOT IMPACT LOWS ALL THAT MUCH...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SE MS. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVER
INCREASES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LOW TEMPS MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 60S AT
THE BEACHES. HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING...

RECORDS FOR JULY 31ST

MOBILE: 66/1984
PENSACOLA: 67/1936

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DESPITE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AL/MS...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER SE MS...BUT NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WHICH
YIELDS UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INSTEAD OF LOW TO MID 90S AS THE MAV
SUGGESTS. 34/JFB

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE FA SWINGS AWAY IN
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FA DRAWS BACK NORTH...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS IS MOSTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS...LEAVING A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 10K` FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPS AGAIN BELOW SEASONAL...THOUGH WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...NOT QUITE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH...BUT STAYS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE FA TO BE A NON-FACTOR IN
THE WEATHER. THE DAY DOES WARM ENOUGH TO FORM A WEAK-HEAT INDUCED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE FA. WITH TEMPS AT OR A SKOSH ABOVE SEASONAL...I
BELIEVE IT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH...BECOMING CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO MOVE TOWARDS OR OVER
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORN. THE FA REMAINS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP FORMATION OVER
MOST OF THE FA. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL DUE TOT HE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS WHILE ADVANCING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY.  THE
SURFACE-850 MB LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY MAKES LITTLE
PROGRESS EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THEN
DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A ROUGHLY CONVERGENT FLOW
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN
STATES AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
THEN TRENDS LOWER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROF ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD. HAVE
STAYED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY THEN CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY WITH THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES. /29

AVIATION...
(18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. 34/JFB

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN BY THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  90  68  91  71 /  00  10  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   67  90  71  91  73 /  00  05  10  30  20
DESTIN      70  89  73  90  76 /  00  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   58  90  65  92  71 /  00  05  10  30  30
WAYNESBORO  61  89  62  90  68 /  00  10  20  30  30
CAMDEN      59  89  65  91  70 /  00  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   56  92  64  92  71 /  00  05  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 310352 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
936 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. RADAR IS FREE OF RETURNS
EXCEPT FOR SOME WEAK RETURNS COMING FROM HIGH CLOUDS WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. SUSPECT THESE RETURNS INDICATE VIRGA. OVER THE GULF THERE
ARE SOME EVEN WEAKER RETURNS FROM CLOUDS SUSPECT AS NOT
PRECIPITATING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURE IS DROPPING A LITTLE SLOWLY AS IT DID LAST NIGHT BUT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WIND AT A DEAD CALM...IT SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITOUS
DROP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE FOR 31.00Z...OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REGION WIDE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES
TO BEGIN THE NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THE
FORECAST IS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THICKER CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IF THIS EVOLUTION
HOLDS TRUE...CLOUDS WILL NOT IMPACT LOWS ALL THAT MUCH...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SE MS. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVER
INCREASES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LOW TEMPS MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 60S AT
THE BEACHES. HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING...

RECORDS FOR JULY 31ST

MOBILE: 66/1984
PENSACOLA: 67/1936

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DESPITE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AL/MS...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER SE MS...BUT NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WHICH
YIELDS UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INSTEAD OF LOW TO MID 90S AS THE MAV
SUGGESTS. 34/JFB

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE FA SWINGS AWAY IN
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FA DRAWS BACK NORTH...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS IS MOSTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS...LEAVING A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 10K` FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPS AGAIN BELOW SEASONAL...THOUGH WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...NOT QUITE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH...BUT STAYS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE FA TO BE A NON-FACTOR IN
THE WEATHER. THE DAY DOES WARM ENOUGH TO FORM A WEAK-HEAT INDUCED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE FA. WITH TEMPS AT OR A SKOSH ABOVE SEASONAL...I
BELIEVE IT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH...BECOMING CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO MOVE TOWARDS OR OVER
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORN. THE FA REMAINS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP FORMATION OVER
MOST OF THE FA. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL DUE TOT HE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS WHILE ADVANCING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY.  THE
SURFACE-850 MB LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY MAKES LITTLE
PROGRESS EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THEN
DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A ROUGHLY CONVERGENT FLOW
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN
STATES AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
THEN TRENDS LOWER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROF ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD. HAVE
STAYED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY THEN CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY WITH THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES. /29

AVIATION...
(18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. 34/JFB

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN BY THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  90  68  91  71 /  00  10  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   67  90  71  91  73 /  00  05  10  30  20
DESTIN      70  89  73  90  76 /  00  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   58  90  65  92  71 /  00  05  10  30  30
WAYNESBORO  61  89  62  90  68 /  00  10  20  30  30
CAMDEN      59  89  65  91  70 /  00  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   56  92  64  92  71 /  00  05  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KBMX 310308 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1008 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN RAIN AND STORMS WELL TO OUR
WEST ACROSS ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST...REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND HAVE SLOWED THE POST SUNSET COOLING. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH HAS BROUGHT OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. HAVE UPDATED THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORDS AGAIN TONIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW LIFT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. LIFT IS VERY WEAK
THOUGH...AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS. NO VIS ISSUES.

88


&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BELWOW IS THE UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR JULY 31. ANNISTON STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE TO BREAK THE RECORD AS CIRRUS WILL BE THINNER ACROSS THE
EAST.

               JULY 31    CURRENT
SITE        FORECAST LOW  RECORD    YEAR
----------  ------------  --------  ----
ANNISTON         64          60     1965
BIRMINGHAM       68          59     1965
MONTGOMERY       65          62     1936
TUSCALOOSA       66          62     1994*

* RECORDS FOR TUSCALOOSA THAT APPEAR IN CURRENT DATABASES ON-LINE
HAVE SPORADIC DATA MISSING FROM 1994 TO 1999. HOWEVER SOME DATA FOR
SPECIFIC DAYS HAVE BEEN IMPORTED INTO OUR CLIMATE PROGRAM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL YEARS. THIS DATA IS ACCURATE BUT IS CURRENTLY
UNAVAILABLE ON-LINE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY DISCREPANCIES AND ARE
WORKING TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH 50S DEWPOINTS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND EVEN UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS AT THIS HOUR IN BIRMINGHAM.
THE DRY AIR WILL HELP TO CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT NIGHT
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE OBSERVED THIS MORNING.
STILL...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD BE APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.
GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW MID 50S
IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS
AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
WE`LL SEE IF ENOUGH CLOUD COVER CAN MOVE INTO ALABAMA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IF SO...THE DIURNAL CURVE COULD BE AFFECTED AND LOWS COULD
BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR INFO ON THURSDAY MORNING`S RECORD LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE BASE OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH. WE SHOULDN`T SEE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. WE
COULD SEE SOME VIRGA ON RADAR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST AND
NORTHWEST INITIALLY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT. MOISTURE
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS EASTERLY FLOW
BEGINS AT THE SURFACE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ABOVE
CLIMO PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GUIDANCE IS
PRESENTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEING CUT OFF
JUST TO OUR WEST FROM THE MAIN FLOW AS THE TROUGH FINALLY PULLS
NORTHEASTWARD. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE COULD BE STUCK IN A MOIST
PATTERN ONCE AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND DECENT PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN. IN OTHER WORDS...THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE HERE TO STAY FOR QUITE A WHILE.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  84  66  81  67 /   0   0  30  40  40
ANNISTON    64  84  67  81  68 /   0   0  30  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  85  69  83  69 /   0  10  30  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  66  85  68  85  69 /   0  20  30  40  40
CALERA      67  86  69  84  69 /   0   0  30  40  40
AUBURN      66  88  68  84  69 /   0   0  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  65  91  69  88  71 /   0   0  20  40  40
TROY        63  90  67  87  70 /   0   0  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 310308 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1008 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN RAIN AND STORMS WELL TO OUR
WEST ACROSS ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST...REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND HAVE SLOWED THE POST SUNSET COOLING. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH HAS BROUGHT OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. HAVE UPDATED THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORDS AGAIN TONIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW LIFT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. LIFT IS VERY WEAK
THOUGH...AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS. NO VIS ISSUES.

88


&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
BREAK RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BELWOW IS THE UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR JULY 31. ANNISTON STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE TO BREAK THE RECORD AS CIRRUS WILL BE THINNER ACROSS THE
EAST.

               JULY 31    CURRENT
SITE        FORECAST LOW  RECORD    YEAR
----------  ------------  --------  ----
ANNISTON         64          60     1965
BIRMINGHAM       68          59     1965
MONTGOMERY       65          62     1936
TUSCALOOSA       66          62     1994*

* RECORDS FOR TUSCALOOSA THAT APPEAR IN CURRENT DATABASES ON-LINE
HAVE SPORADIC DATA MISSING FROM 1994 TO 1999. HOWEVER SOME DATA FOR
SPECIFIC DAYS HAVE BEEN IMPORTED INTO OUR CLIMATE PROGRAM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL YEARS. THIS DATA IS ACCURATE BUT IS CURRENTLY
UNAVAILABLE ON-LINE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY DISCREPANCIES AND ARE
WORKING TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH 50S DEWPOINTS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND EVEN UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS AT THIS HOUR IN BIRMINGHAM.
THE DRY AIR WILL HELP TO CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT NIGHT
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE OBSERVED THIS MORNING.
STILL...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD BE APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.
GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW MID 50S
IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS
AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
WE`LL SEE IF ENOUGH CLOUD COVER CAN MOVE INTO ALABAMA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IF SO...THE DIURNAL CURVE COULD BE AFFECTED AND LOWS COULD
BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR INFO ON THURSDAY MORNING`S RECORD LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE BASE OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH. WE SHOULDN`T SEE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. WE
COULD SEE SOME VIRGA ON RADAR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST AND
NORTHWEST INITIALLY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT. MOISTURE
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS EASTERLY FLOW
BEGINS AT THE SURFACE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ABOVE
CLIMO PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GUIDANCE IS
PRESENTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEING CUT OFF
JUST TO OUR WEST FROM THE MAIN FLOW AS THE TROUGH FINALLY PULLS
NORTHEASTWARD. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE COULD BE STUCK IN A MOIST
PATTERN ONCE AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND DECENT PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN. IN OTHER WORDS...THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE HERE TO STAY FOR QUITE A WHILE.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  84  66  81  67 /   0   0  30  40  40
ANNISTON    64  84  67  81  68 /   0   0  30  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  85  69  83  69 /   0  10  30  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  66  85  68  85  69 /   0  20  30  40  40
CALERA      67  86  69  84  69 /   0   0  30  40  40
AUBURN      66  88  68  84  69 /   0   0  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  65  91  69  88  71 /   0   0  20  40  40
TROY        63  90  67  87  70 /   0   0  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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