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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 031733 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPS TODAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S! SAW A QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...~5
DEGREES IN AN HR AT 13Z...WHEN THE MORNING INVERSION ERODED AND WARM
AIR MIXED DOWN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS FROM TX THROUGH THE GULF
COAST AND WNW FLOW WILL STREAM SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA AGAIN
TODAY.

WITH THE QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS/WINDGUSTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
INCREASED DEWPOINTS ESPECIALLY FOR NE AL...DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO
LOWER THEM BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL IN PLACE. OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED E OF
THE LOCAL AREA...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME BRIEF -BR/MVFR VIS NEAR
THE KSML TERMINAL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS MON. SFC FLOW IS ALSO
XPCTED TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE S MON MORNING AROUND 5-7KT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031733 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPS TODAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S! SAW A QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...~5
DEGREES IN AN HR AT 13Z...WHEN THE MORNING INVERSION ERODED AND WARM
AIR MIXED DOWN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS FROM TX THROUGH THE GULF
COAST AND WNW FLOW WILL STREAM SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA AGAIN
TODAY.

WITH THE QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS/WINDGUSTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
INCREASED DEWPOINTS ESPECIALLY FOR NE AL...DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO
LOWER THEM BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL IN PLACE. OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED E OF
THE LOCAL AREA...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME BRIEF -BR/MVFR VIS NEAR
THE KSML TERMINAL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS MON. SFC FLOW IS ALSO
XPCTED TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE S MON MORNING AROUND 5-7KT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031733 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPS TODAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S! SAW A QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...~5
DEGREES IN AN HR AT 13Z...WHEN THE MORNING INVERSION ERODED AND WARM
AIR MIXED DOWN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS FROM TX THROUGH THE GULF
COAST AND WNW FLOW WILL STREAM SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA AGAIN
TODAY.

WITH THE QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS/WINDGUSTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
INCREASED DEWPOINTS ESPECIALLY FOR NE AL...DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO
LOWER THEM BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL IN PLACE. OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED E OF
THE LOCAL AREA...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME BRIEF -BR/MVFR VIS NEAR
THE KSML TERMINAL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS MON. SFC FLOW IS ALSO
XPCTED TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE S MON MORNING AROUND 5-7KT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031733 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPS TODAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S! SAW A QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...~5
DEGREES IN AN HR AT 13Z...WHEN THE MORNING INVERSION ERODED AND WARM
AIR MIXED DOWN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS FROM TX THROUGH THE GULF
COAST AND WNW FLOW WILL STREAM SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA AGAIN
TODAY.

WITH THE QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS/WINDGUSTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
INCREASED DEWPOINTS ESPECIALLY FOR NE AL...DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO
LOWER THEM BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL IN PLACE. OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED E OF
THE LOCAL AREA...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME BRIEF -BR/MVFR VIS NEAR
THE KSML TERMINAL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS MON. SFC FLOW IS ALSO
XPCTED TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE S MON MORNING AROUND 5-7KT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 031719 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...SO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ARE MOST LOCATIONS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  54  81  55  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    80  56  81  57  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  57  82  59  82 /   0   0  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  82  57  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      81  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      79  58  79  58  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  83  59  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        83  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 031719 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...SO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ARE MOST LOCATIONS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  54  81  55  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    80  56  81  57  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  57  82  59  82 /   0   0  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  82  57  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      81  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      79  58  79  58  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  83  59  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        83  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 031719 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...SO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ARE MOST LOCATIONS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  54  81  55  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    80  56  81  57  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  57  82  59  82 /   0   0  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  82  57  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      81  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      79  58  79  58  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  83  59  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        83  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 031719 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...SO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ARE MOST LOCATIONS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  54  81  55  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    80  56  81  57  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  57  82  59  82 /   0   0  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  82  57  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      81  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      79  58  79  58  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  83  59  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        83  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 031637 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1137 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MON. A
MODERATE RISK IS NOW IN EFFECT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LATER TODAY OR OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
03.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 04.06Z...FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 04.13Z...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 04.18Z. EXPECT SCT TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCT TO BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KMOB AND KBFM LATE
MON MORNING THRU MON AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12
KNOTS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING EAST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON...THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO 13
TO 15 KNOTS LATE MON MORNING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. 32/EM

&&

.MARINE...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT WIND/SEA FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT
AND ON MON IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN MOST OTHER OPEN AREAS
INCLUDING SOME INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED MOSTLY FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS LATE
MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY UNDER
PREDOMINANTLY BLUE SKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
MID 80S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR MORE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN MS...AL & FL TOMORROW MORNING UNDER FAIR SKIES AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES UNDER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT...EFFICIENT RADIATIVE
COOLING...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLUXES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN
THEY`VE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. 08/JW

(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...STILL LITTLE TO NO REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOLVL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CLOUDS
AND ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN...ALTHOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA (AS
MENTIONED ABOVE IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION). HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S
INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 60S COASTAL. 12/DS

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS STILL CONSISTENTLY
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO REAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION...BUT BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES AS
WELL...AND EVEN THOUGH A BETTER ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SLOW AND GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION...
THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY ANY
CHANCES FOR PCPN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S (EXCEPT UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES). OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
EACH NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
CREATE A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL BEGIN
STRENGTHENING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CREATE SMALL CRAFT CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
08/JW

AVIATION...03.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OCNLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. 08/JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  60  82  61  83 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   77  65  82  65  80 /  05  00  10  05  05
DESTIN      76  67  78  66  78 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   82  55  83  58  83 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  83  55  84  57  83 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      83  55  83  58  83 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   85  54  85  58  85 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 031637 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1137 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MON. A
MODERATE RISK IS NOW IN EFFECT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LATER TODAY OR OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
03.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 04.06Z...FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 04.13Z...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 04.18Z. EXPECT SCT TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCT TO BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KMOB AND KBFM LATE
MON MORNING THRU MON AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12
KNOTS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING EAST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON...THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO 13
TO 15 KNOTS LATE MON MORNING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. 32/EM

&&

.MARINE...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT WIND/SEA FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT
AND ON MON IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN MOST OTHER OPEN AREAS
INCLUDING SOME INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED MOSTLY FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS LATE
MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY UNDER
PREDOMINANTLY BLUE SKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
MID 80S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR MORE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN MS...AL & FL TOMORROW MORNING UNDER FAIR SKIES AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES UNDER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT...EFFICIENT RADIATIVE
COOLING...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLUXES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN
THEY`VE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. 08/JW

(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...STILL LITTLE TO NO REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOLVL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CLOUDS
AND ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN...ALTHOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA (AS
MENTIONED ABOVE IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION). HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S
INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 60S COASTAL. 12/DS

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS STILL CONSISTENTLY
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO REAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION...BUT BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES AS
WELL...AND EVEN THOUGH A BETTER ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SLOW AND GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION...
THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY ANY
CHANCES FOR PCPN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S (EXCEPT UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES). OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
EACH NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
CREATE A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL BEGIN
STRENGTHENING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CREATE SMALL CRAFT CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
08/JW

AVIATION...03.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OCNLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. 08/JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  60  82  61  83 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   77  65  82  65  80 /  05  00  10  05  05
DESTIN      76  67  78  66  78 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   82  55  83  58  83 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  83  55  84  57  83 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      83  55  83  58  83 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   85  54  85  58  85 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 031637 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1137 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MON. A
MODERATE RISK IS NOW IN EFFECT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LATER TODAY OR OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
03.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 04.06Z...FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 04.13Z...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 04.18Z. EXPECT SCT TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCT TO BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KMOB AND KBFM LATE
MON MORNING THRU MON AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12
KNOTS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING EAST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON...THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO 13
TO 15 KNOTS LATE MON MORNING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. 32/EM

&&

.MARINE...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT WIND/SEA FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT
AND ON MON IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN MOST OTHER OPEN AREAS
INCLUDING SOME INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED MOSTLY FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS LATE
MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY UNDER
PREDOMINANTLY BLUE SKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
MID 80S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR MORE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN MS...AL & FL TOMORROW MORNING UNDER FAIR SKIES AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES UNDER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT...EFFICIENT RADIATIVE
COOLING...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLUXES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN
THEY`VE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. 08/JW

(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...STILL LITTLE TO NO REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOLVL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CLOUDS
AND ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN...ALTHOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA (AS
MENTIONED ABOVE IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION). HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S
INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 60S COASTAL. 12/DS

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS STILL CONSISTENTLY
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO REAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION...BUT BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES AS
WELL...AND EVEN THOUGH A BETTER ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SLOW AND GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION...
THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY ANY
CHANCES FOR PCPN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S (EXCEPT UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES). OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
EACH NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
CREATE A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL BEGIN
STRENGTHENING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CREATE SMALL CRAFT CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
08/JW

AVIATION...03.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OCNLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. 08/JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  60  82  61  83 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   77  65  82  65  80 /  05  00  10  05  05
DESTIN      76  67  78  66  78 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   82  55  83  58  83 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  83  55  84  57  83 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      83  55  83  58  83 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   85  54  85  58  85 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 031637 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1137 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MON. A
MODERATE RISK IS NOW IN EFFECT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LATER TODAY OR OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
03.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 04.06Z...FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 04.13Z...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 04.18Z. EXPECT SCT TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCT TO BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KMOB AND KBFM LATE
MON MORNING THRU MON AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12
KNOTS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING EAST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON...THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO 13
TO 15 KNOTS LATE MON MORNING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. 32/EM

&&

.MARINE...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT WIND/SEA FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT
AND ON MON IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN MOST OTHER OPEN AREAS
INCLUDING SOME INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED MOSTLY FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS LATE
MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY UNDER
PREDOMINANTLY BLUE SKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
MID 80S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR MORE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN MS...AL & FL TOMORROW MORNING UNDER FAIR SKIES AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES UNDER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT...EFFICIENT RADIATIVE
COOLING...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLUXES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN
THEY`VE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. 08/JW

(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...STILL LITTLE TO NO REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOLVL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CLOUDS
AND ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN...ALTHOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA (AS
MENTIONED ABOVE IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION). HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S
INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 60S COASTAL. 12/DS

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS STILL CONSISTENTLY
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO REAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION...BUT BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES AS
WELL...AND EVEN THOUGH A BETTER ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SLOW AND GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION...
THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY ANY
CHANCES FOR PCPN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S (EXCEPT UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES). OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
EACH NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
CREATE A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL BEGIN
STRENGTHENING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CREATE SMALL CRAFT CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
08/JW

AVIATION...03.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OCNLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. 08/JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  60  82  61  83 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   77  65  82  65  80 /  05  00  10  05  05
DESTIN      76  67  78  66  78 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   82  55  83  58  83 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  83  55  84  57  83 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      83  55  83  58  83 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   85  54  85  58  85 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031616 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1116 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPS TODAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S! SAW A QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...~5
DEGREES IN AN HR AT 13Z...WHEN THE MORNING INVERSION ERODED AND WARM
AIR MIXED DOWN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS FROM TX THROUGH THE GULF
COAST AND WNW FLOW WILL STREAM SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA AGAIN
TODAY.

WITH THE QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS/WINDGUSTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
INCREASED DEWPOINTS ESPECIALLY FOR NE AL...DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO
LOWER THEM BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL IN PLACE. OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR VSBY IN FG WILL PERSIST AT MSL FOR INITIAL
30-60 MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY WITH SCT CI/AC EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SCT HIGH-BASED CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 03/16-18Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ARND 4-6 KFT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING AC...SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THIS ALONG WITH A LGT SSE
FLOW WILL ALLOW VALLEY FG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BTWN 04/06-12Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN EITHER TAF...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
VSBY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PSBL -- ESPECIALLY AT MSL.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031616 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1116 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPS TODAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S! SAW A QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...~5
DEGREES IN AN HR AT 13Z...WHEN THE MORNING INVERSION ERODED AND WARM
AIR MIXED DOWN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS FROM TX THROUGH THE GULF
COAST AND WNW FLOW WILL STREAM SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA AGAIN
TODAY.

WITH THE QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS/WINDGUSTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
INCREASED DEWPOINTS ESPECIALLY FOR NE AL...DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO
LOWER THEM BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL IN PLACE. OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR VSBY IN FG WILL PERSIST AT MSL FOR INITIAL
30-60 MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY WITH SCT CI/AC EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SCT HIGH-BASED CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 03/16-18Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ARND 4-6 KFT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING AC...SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THIS ALONG WITH A LGT SSE
FLOW WILL ALLOW VALLEY FG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BTWN 04/06-12Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN EITHER TAF...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
VSBY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PSBL -- ESPECIALLY AT MSL.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031616 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1116 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPS TODAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S! SAW A QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...~5
DEGREES IN AN HR AT 13Z...WHEN THE MORNING INVERSION ERODED AND WARM
AIR MIXED DOWN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS FROM TX THROUGH THE GULF
COAST AND WNW FLOW WILL STREAM SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA AGAIN
TODAY.

WITH THE QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS/WINDGUSTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
INCREASED DEWPOINTS ESPECIALLY FOR NE AL...DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO
LOWER THEM BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL IN PLACE. OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR VSBY IN FG WILL PERSIST AT MSL FOR INITIAL
30-60 MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY WITH SCT CI/AC EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SCT HIGH-BASED CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 03/16-18Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ARND 4-6 KFT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING AC...SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THIS ALONG WITH A LGT SSE
FLOW WILL ALLOW VALLEY FG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BTWN 04/06-12Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN EITHER TAF...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
VSBY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PSBL -- ESPECIALLY AT MSL.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031616 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1116 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPS TODAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S! SAW A QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...~5
DEGREES IN AN HR AT 13Z...WHEN THE MORNING INVERSION ERODED AND WARM
AIR MIXED DOWN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS FROM TX THROUGH THE GULF
COAST AND WNW FLOW WILL STREAM SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA AGAIN
TODAY.

WITH THE QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS/WINDGUSTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
INCREASED DEWPOINTS ESPECIALLY FOR NE AL...DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO
LOWER THEM BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL IN PLACE. OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR VSBY IN FG WILL PERSIST AT MSL FOR INITIAL
30-60 MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY WITH SCT CI/AC EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SCT HIGH-BASED CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 03/16-18Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ARND 4-6 KFT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING AC...SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THIS ALONG WITH A LGT SSE
FLOW WILL ALLOW VALLEY FG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BTWN 04/06-12Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN EITHER TAF...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
VSBY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PSBL -- ESPECIALLY AT MSL.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 031506 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...SO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ARE MOST LOCATIONS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  54  81  55  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    80  56  81  57  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  57  82  59  82 /   0   0  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  82  57  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      81  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      79  58  79  58  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  83  59  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        83  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 031506 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...SO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ARE MOST LOCATIONS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  54  81  55  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    80  56  81  57  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  57  82  59  82 /   0   0  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  82  57  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      81  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      79  58  79  58  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  83  59  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        83  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 031506 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...SO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ARE MOST LOCATIONS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  54  81  55  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    80  56  81  57  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  57  82  59  82 /   0   0  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  82  57  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      81  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      79  58  79  58  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  83  59  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        83  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 031506 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...SO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ARE MOST LOCATIONS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  54  81  55  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    80  56  81  57  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  57  82  59  82 /   0   0  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  82  57  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      81  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      79  58  79  58  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  83  59  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        83  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 031152
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
A WELCOME QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SUMMERLIKE THAN OF EARLY MAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAM FLOW DEPICT A GENERAL WNW FLOW REGIME FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNED TX INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SHORTWAVES AND MCS WERE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE WAVE IN IL WILL
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS, TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK
AS A LONG- ADVERTISED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF
THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE MIN
IN MOISTURE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS DIRECTED
THROUGH FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BACK NWWD THRU THE PLAINS
STATES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MTNS JUST TO OUR NE-E THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT FOR OUR PLATEAU AREAS AND WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE, WILL LEAVE OUT
ATTM. WILL STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR VSBY IN FG WILL PERSIST AT MSL FOR INITIAL
30-60 MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY WITH SCT CI/AC EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SCT HIGH-BASED CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 03/16-18Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ARND 4-6 KFT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING AC...SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THIS ALONG WITH A LGT SSE
FLOW WILL ALLOW VALLEY FG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BTWN 04/06-12Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN EITHER TAF...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
VSBY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PSBL -- ESPECIALLY AT MSL.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 031152
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
A WELCOME QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SUMMERLIKE THAN OF EARLY MAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAM FLOW DEPICT A GENERAL WNW FLOW REGIME FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNED TX INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SHORTWAVES AND MCS WERE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE WAVE IN IL WILL
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS, TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK
AS A LONG- ADVERTISED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF
THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE MIN
IN MOISTURE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS DIRECTED
THROUGH FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BACK NWWD THRU THE PLAINS
STATES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MTNS JUST TO OUR NE-E THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT FOR OUR PLATEAU AREAS AND WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE, WILL LEAVE OUT
ATTM. WILL STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR VSBY IN FG WILL PERSIST AT MSL FOR INITIAL
30-60 MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY WITH SCT CI/AC EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SCT HIGH-BASED CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 03/16-18Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ARND 4-6 KFT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING AC...SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THIS ALONG WITH A LGT SSE
FLOW WILL ALLOW VALLEY FG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BTWN 04/06-12Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN EITHER TAF...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
VSBY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PSBL -- ESPECIALLY AT MSL.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 031152
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
A WELCOME QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SUMMERLIKE THAN OF EARLY MAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAM FLOW DEPICT A GENERAL WNW FLOW REGIME FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNED TX INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SHORTWAVES AND MCS WERE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE WAVE IN IL WILL
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS, TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK
AS A LONG- ADVERTISED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF
THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE MIN
IN MOISTURE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS DIRECTED
THROUGH FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BACK NWWD THRU THE PLAINS
STATES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MTNS JUST TO OUR NE-E THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT FOR OUR PLATEAU AREAS AND WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE, WILL LEAVE OUT
ATTM. WILL STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR VSBY IN FG WILL PERSIST AT MSL FOR INITIAL
30-60 MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY WITH SCT CI/AC EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SCT HIGH-BASED CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 03/16-18Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ARND 4-6 KFT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING AC...SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THIS ALONG WITH A LGT SSE
FLOW WILL ALLOW VALLEY FG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BTWN 04/06-12Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN EITHER TAF...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
VSBY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PSBL -- ESPECIALLY AT MSL.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 031152
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
A WELCOME QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SUMMERLIKE THAN OF EARLY MAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAM FLOW DEPICT A GENERAL WNW FLOW REGIME FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNED TX INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SHORTWAVES AND MCS WERE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE WAVE IN IL WILL
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS, TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK
AS A LONG- ADVERTISED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF
THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE MIN
IN MOISTURE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS DIRECTED
THROUGH FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BACK NWWD THRU THE PLAINS
STATES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MTNS JUST TO OUR NE-E THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT FOR OUR PLATEAU AREAS AND WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE, WILL LEAVE OUT
ATTM. WILL STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR VSBY IN FG WILL PERSIST AT MSL FOR INITIAL
30-60 MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY WITH SCT CI/AC EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SCT HIGH-BASED CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 03/16-18Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ARND 4-6 KFT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING AC...SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THIS ALONG WITH A LGT SSE
FLOW WILL ALLOW VALLEY FG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BTWN 04/06-12Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN EITHER TAF...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
VSBY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PSBL -- ESPECIALLY AT MSL.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 031152
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
A WELCOME QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SUMMERLIKE THAN OF EARLY MAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAM FLOW DEPICT A GENERAL WNW FLOW REGIME FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNED TX INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SHORTWAVES AND MCS WERE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE WAVE IN IL WILL
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS, TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK
AS A LONG- ADVERTISED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF
THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE MIN
IN MOISTURE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS DIRECTED
THROUGH FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BACK NWWD THRU THE PLAINS
STATES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MTNS JUST TO OUR NE-E THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT FOR OUR PLATEAU AREAS AND WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE, WILL LEAVE OUT
ATTM. WILL STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR VSBY IN FG WILL PERSIST AT MSL FOR INITIAL
30-60 MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY WITH SCT CI/AC EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SCT HIGH-BASED CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 03/16-18Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ARND 4-6 KFT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING AC...SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THIS ALONG WITH A LGT SSE
FLOW WILL ALLOW VALLEY FG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BTWN 04/06-12Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN EITHER TAF...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
VSBY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PSBL -- ESPECIALLY AT MSL.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031152
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
A WELCOME QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SUMMERLIKE THAN OF EARLY MAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAM FLOW DEPICT A GENERAL WNW FLOW REGIME FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNED TX INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SHORTWAVES AND MCS WERE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE WAVE IN IL WILL
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS, TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK
AS A LONG- ADVERTISED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF
THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE MIN
IN MOISTURE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS DIRECTED
THROUGH FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BACK NWWD THRU THE PLAINS
STATES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MTNS JUST TO OUR NE-E THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT FOR OUR PLATEAU AREAS AND WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE, WILL LEAVE OUT
ATTM. WILL STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR VSBY IN FG WILL PERSIST AT MSL FOR INITIAL
30-60 MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY WITH SCT CI/AC EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SCT HIGH-BASED CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 03/16-18Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ARND 4-6 KFT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING AC...SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THIS ALONG WITH A LGT SSE
FLOW WILL ALLOW VALLEY FG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BTWN 04/06-12Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN EITHER TAF...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
VSBY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PSBL -- ESPECIALLY AT MSL.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031152
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
A WELCOME QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SUMMERLIKE THAN OF EARLY MAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAM FLOW DEPICT A GENERAL WNW FLOW REGIME FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNED TX INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SHORTWAVES AND MCS WERE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE WAVE IN IL WILL
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS, TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK
AS A LONG- ADVERTISED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF
THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE MIN
IN MOISTURE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS DIRECTED
THROUGH FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BACK NWWD THRU THE PLAINS
STATES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MTNS JUST TO OUR NE-E THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT FOR OUR PLATEAU AREAS AND WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE, WILL LEAVE OUT
ATTM. WILL STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR VSBY IN FG WILL PERSIST AT MSL FOR INITIAL
30-60 MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY WITH SCT CI/AC EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SCT HIGH-BASED CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 03/16-18Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ARND 4-6 KFT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING AC...SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THIS ALONG WITH A LGT SSE
FLOW WILL ALLOW VALLEY FG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BTWN 04/06-12Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN EITHER TAF...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
VSBY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PSBL -- ESPECIALLY AT MSL.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031152
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
A WELCOME QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SUMMERLIKE THAN OF EARLY MAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAM FLOW DEPICT A GENERAL WNW FLOW REGIME FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNED TX INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SHORTWAVES AND MCS WERE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE WAVE IN IL WILL
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS, TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK
AS A LONG- ADVERTISED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF
THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE MIN
IN MOISTURE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS DIRECTED
THROUGH FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BACK NWWD THRU THE PLAINS
STATES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MTNS JUST TO OUR NE-E THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT FOR OUR PLATEAU AREAS AND WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE, WILL LEAVE OUT
ATTM. WILL STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR VSBY IN FG WILL PERSIST AT MSL FOR INITIAL
30-60 MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY WITH SCT CI/AC EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SCT HIGH-BASED CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 03/16-18Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ARND 4-6 KFT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING AC...SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THIS ALONG WITH A LGT SSE
FLOW WILL ALLOW VALLEY FG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BTWN 04/06-12Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN EITHER TAF...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
VSBY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PSBL -- ESPECIALLY AT MSL.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 031136
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/87



000
FXUS64 KBMX 031136
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/87




000
FXUS64 KBMX 031136
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/87




000
FXUS64 KBMX 031136
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/87




000
FXUS64 KBMX 031136
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/87




000
FXUS64 KBMX 031136
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/87




000
FXUS64 KMOB 030942
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
442 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY UNDER
PREDOMINANTLY BLUE SKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
MID 80S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR MORE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN MS...AL & FL TOMORROW MORNING UNDER FAIR SKIES AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES UNDER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT...EFFICIENT RADIATIVE
COOLING...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLUXES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN
THEY`VE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. 08/JW

(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...STILL LITTLE TO NO REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOLVL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CLOUDS
AND ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN...ALTHOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA (AS
MENTIONED ABOVE IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION). HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S
INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 60S COASTAL. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS STILL CONSISTENTLY
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO REAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION...BUT BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES AS
WELL...AND EVEN THOUGH A BETTER ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SLOW AND GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION...
THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY ANY
CHANCES FOR PCPN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S (EXCEPT UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES). OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
EACH NIGHT. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
CREATE A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL BEGIN
STRENGTHENING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CREATE SMALL CRAFT CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
08/JW

&&

.AVIATION...03.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OCNLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. 08/JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  60  82  61  83 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   77  65  82  65  80 /  05  00  10  05  05
DESTIN      76  67  78  66  78 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   82  55  83  58  83 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  83  55  84  57  83 /  05  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      83  55  83  58  83 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   85  54  85  58  85 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 030927
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT CLEAR AND NEAR CALM FORECAST
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TAFS.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  54  81  55  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    80  56  81  57  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  57  82  59  82 /   0   0  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  82  57  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      81  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      79  58  79  58  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  83  59  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        83  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 030927
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH
UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM
AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD WANDER INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT CLEAR AND NEAR CALM FORECAST
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TAFS.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  54  81  55  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    80  56  81  57  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  81  57  82  59  82 /   0   0  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  82  57  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      81  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      79  58  79  58  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  83  59  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        83  58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 030630
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
130 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WELCOME QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SUMMERLIKE THAN OF EARLY MAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAM FLOW DEPICT A GENERAL WNW FLOW REGIME FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNED TX INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SHORTWAVES AND MCS WERE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE WAVE IN IL WILL
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS, TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK
AS A LONG- ADVERTISED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF
THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE MIN
IN MOISTURE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS DIRECTED
THROUGH FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BACK NWWD THRU THE PLAINS
STATES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE APPLACHIAN MTNS JUST TO OUR NE-E THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT FOR OUR PLATEAU AREAS AND WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE, WILL LEAVE OUT
ATTM. WILL STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AT HSV AND MSL TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED A TEMPO GROUP FOR 4-5SM...MAINLY MVFR FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SE-S IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SE AND DIMINISH UNDER 5 KT AFTER DUSK SUN EVENING.

RSB/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    82  56  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        82  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      78  55  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  78  54  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   79  54  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    78  52  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 030630
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
130 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WELCOME QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SUMMERLIKE THAN OF EARLY MAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAM FLOW DEPICT A GENERAL WNW FLOW REGIME FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNED TX INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SHORTWAVES AND MCS WERE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE WAVE IN IL WILL
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS, TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK
AS A LONG- ADVERTISED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF
THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE MIN
IN MOISTURE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS DIRECTED
THROUGH FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BACK NWWD THRU THE PLAINS
STATES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE APPLACHIAN MTNS JUST TO OUR NE-E THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT FOR OUR PLATEAU AREAS AND WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE, WILL LEAVE OUT
ATTM. WILL STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AT HSV AND MSL TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED A TEMPO GROUP FOR 4-5SM...MAINLY MVFR FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SE-S IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SE AND DIMINISH UNDER 5 KT AFTER DUSK SUN EVENING.

RSB/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    82  56  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        82  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      78  55  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  78  54  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   79  54  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    78  52  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 030630
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
130 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WELCOME QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SUMMERLIKE THAN OF EARLY MAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAM FLOW DEPICT A GENERAL WNW FLOW REGIME FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNED TX INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SHORTWAVES AND MCS WERE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE WAVE IN IL WILL
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS, TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK
AS A LONG- ADVERTISED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF
THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE MIN
IN MOISTURE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS DIRECTED
THROUGH FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BACK NWWD THRU THE PLAINS
STATES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE APPLACHIAN MTNS JUST TO OUR NE-E THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT FOR OUR PLATEAU AREAS AND WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE, WILL LEAVE OUT
ATTM. WILL STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AT HSV AND MSL TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED A TEMPO GROUP FOR 4-5SM...MAINLY MVFR FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SE-S IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SE AND DIMINISH UNDER 5 KT AFTER DUSK SUN EVENING.

RSB/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    82  56  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        82  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      78  55  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  78  54  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   79  54  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    78  52  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 030630
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
130 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WELCOME QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SUMMERLIKE THAN OF EARLY MAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAM FLOW DEPICT A GENERAL WNW FLOW REGIME FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNED TX INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SHORTWAVES AND MCS WERE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE WAVE IN IL WILL
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS, TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK
AS A LONG- ADVERTISED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF
THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE MIN
IN MOISTURE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS DIRECTED
THROUGH FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BACK NWWD THRU THE PLAINS
STATES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE APPLACHIAN MTNS JUST TO OUR NE-E THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT FOR OUR PLATEAU AREAS AND WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE, WILL LEAVE OUT
ATTM. WILL STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AT HSV AND MSL TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED A TEMPO GROUP FOR 4-5SM...MAINLY MVFR FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SE-S IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SE AND DIMINISH UNDER 5 KT AFTER DUSK SUN EVENING.

RSB/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    82  56  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        82  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      78  55  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  78  54  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   79  54  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    78  52  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 030542 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
CLEAR SKIES ABOUNDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION.
9 PM TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE RADAR AND VELOCITY DATA INDICATED
AN INVERSION HAS FORMED ALOFT...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS IN THE
10-20KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

ONLY A FEW HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE HEADED IN AN ESE DIRECTION
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A FEW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR WORDING WILL HOLD. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
THE LOWER 50S MOST SPOTS. PLENTIFUL SUN EARLIER TODAY HELPED TO
DRY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MORE THAN WAS THE CAST YESTERDAY. DESPITE
THAT...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. GIVEN
SPARSITY OF EXPECTED FOG AND ONLY SHORT-TIME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING FOG THIS ISSUANCE.

DID MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH WON`T
CHANGE THE GENERAL FORECAST THINKING. UPDATED DIGITAL TEXT
PRODUCTS...AKA AFM/PFM/SFT HAVE BEEN SENT. WILL HAVE AN UPDATED
GRAPHICAST FORTHCOMING SHORTLY TOO.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AT HSV AND MSL TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED A TEMPO GROUP FOR 4-5SM...MAINLY MVFR FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SE-S IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SE AND DIMINISH UNDER 5 KT AFTER DUSK SUN EVENING.

RSB/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 030542 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
CLEAR SKIES ABOUNDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION.
9 PM TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE RADAR AND VELOCITY DATA INDICATED
AN INVERSION HAS FORMED ALOFT...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS IN THE
10-20KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

ONLY A FEW HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE HEADED IN AN ESE DIRECTION
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A FEW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR WORDING WILL HOLD. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
THE LOWER 50S MOST SPOTS. PLENTIFUL SUN EARLIER TODAY HELPED TO
DRY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MORE THAN WAS THE CAST YESTERDAY. DESPITE
THAT...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. GIVEN
SPARSITY OF EXPECTED FOG AND ONLY SHORT-TIME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING FOG THIS ISSUANCE.

DID MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH WON`T
CHANGE THE GENERAL FORECAST THINKING. UPDATED DIGITAL TEXT
PRODUCTS...AKA AFM/PFM/SFT HAVE BEEN SENT. WILL HAVE AN UPDATED
GRAPHICAST FORTHCOMING SHORTLY TOO.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AT HSV AND MSL TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED A TEMPO GROUP FOR 4-5SM...MAINLY MVFR FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SE-S IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SE AND DIMINISH UNDER 5 KT AFTER DUSK SUN EVENING.

RSB/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 030458 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
03.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04.06Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS BY
NOON. A FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. TO THE EAST AND SOUTH A MID TO UPPER
TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN WITH A BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE IN ITS
WAKE...COVERING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
REGION BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A CONTINUED DRY PATTER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ON SUN WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LOWER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
LIGHT ONSHORE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MOSTLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ON
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE ON SUN DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS COMBINED WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH
IS STILL 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES ON
TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER INLAND
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR/OVER THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN WHILE ADVANCING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A SOUTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY BECOMES PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INITIALLY NEAR 1.0 INCH DECREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE PERIOD TO A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES OF 0.75-1.0
INCHES. WITH SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES TREND GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THEN TREND TO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S LATER IN THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S CLOSE TO THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
BACK BUILD TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER THERMAL/PRES GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LEADING TO A GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY FROM FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN LATE MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  82  60  83  61 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   60  80  64  81  65 /  00  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      61  80  66  81  66 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   51  85  56  85  57 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  49  83  55  83  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      51  85  56  84  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   50  85  57  86  58 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 030458 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
03.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04.06Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS BY
NOON. A FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. TO THE EAST AND SOUTH A MID TO UPPER
TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN WITH A BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE IN ITS
WAKE...COVERING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
REGION BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A CONTINUED DRY PATTER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ON SUN WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LOWER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
LIGHT ONSHORE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MOSTLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ON
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE ON SUN DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS COMBINED WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH
IS STILL 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES ON
TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER INLAND
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR/OVER THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN WHILE ADVANCING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A SOUTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY BECOMES PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INITIALLY NEAR 1.0 INCH DECREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE PERIOD TO A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES OF 0.75-1.0
INCHES. WITH SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES TREND GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THEN TREND TO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S LATER IN THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S CLOSE TO THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
BACK BUILD TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER THERMAL/PRES GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LEADING TO A GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY FROM FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN LATE MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  82  60  83  61 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   60  80  64  81  65 /  00  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      61  80  66  81  66 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   51  85  56  85  57 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  49  83  55  83  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      51  85  56  84  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   50  85  57  86  58 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 030458 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
03.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04.06Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS BY
NOON. A FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. TO THE EAST AND SOUTH A MID TO UPPER
TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN WITH A BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE IN ITS
WAKE...COVERING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
REGION BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A CONTINUED DRY PATTER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ON SUN WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LOWER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
LIGHT ONSHORE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MOSTLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ON
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE ON SUN DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS COMBINED WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH
IS STILL 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES ON
TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER INLAND
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR/OVER THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN WHILE ADVANCING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A SOUTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY BECOMES PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INITIALLY NEAR 1.0 INCH DECREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE PERIOD TO A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES OF 0.75-1.0
INCHES. WITH SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES TREND GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THEN TREND TO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S LATER IN THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S CLOSE TO THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
BACK BUILD TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER THERMAL/PRES GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LEADING TO A GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY FROM FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN LATE MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  82  60  83  61 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   60  80  64  81  65 /  00  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      61  80  66  81  66 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   51  85  56  85  57 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  49  83  55  83  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      51  85  56  84  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   50  85  57  86  58 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 030458 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
03.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04.06Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS BY
NOON. A FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. TO THE EAST AND SOUTH A MID TO UPPER
TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN WITH A BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE IN ITS
WAKE...COVERING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
REGION BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A CONTINUED DRY PATTER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ON SUN WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LOWER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
LIGHT ONSHORE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MOSTLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ON
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE ON SUN DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS COMBINED WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH
IS STILL 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES ON
TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER INLAND
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR/OVER THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN WHILE ADVANCING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A SOUTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY BECOMES PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INITIALLY NEAR 1.0 INCH DECREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE PERIOD TO A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES OF 0.75-1.0
INCHES. WITH SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES TREND GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THEN TREND TO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S LATER IN THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S CLOSE TO THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
BACK BUILD TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER THERMAL/PRES GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LEADING TO A GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY FROM FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN LATE MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  82  60  83  61 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   60  80  64  81  65 /  00  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      61  80  66  81  66 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   51  85  56  85  57 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  49  83  55  83  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      51  85  56  84  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   50  85  57  86  58 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 030458 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
03.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04.06Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS BY
NOON. A FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. TO THE EAST AND SOUTH A MID TO UPPER
TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN WITH A BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE IN ITS
WAKE...COVERING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
REGION BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A CONTINUED DRY PATTER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ON SUN WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LOWER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
LIGHT ONSHORE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MOSTLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ON
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE ON SUN DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS COMBINED WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH
IS STILL 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES ON
TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER INLAND
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR/OVER THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN WHILE ADVANCING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A SOUTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY BECOMES PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INITIALLY NEAR 1.0 INCH DECREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE PERIOD TO A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES OF 0.75-1.0
INCHES. WITH SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES TREND GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THEN TREND TO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S LATER IN THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S CLOSE TO THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
BACK BUILD TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER THERMAL/PRES GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LEADING TO A GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY FROM FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN LATE MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  82  60  83  61 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   60  80  64  81  65 /  00  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      61  80  66  81  66 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   51  85  56  85  57 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  49  83  55  83  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      51  85  56  84  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   50  85  57  86  58 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 030458 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
03.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04.06Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS BY
NOON. A FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. TO THE EAST AND SOUTH A MID TO UPPER
TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN WITH A BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE IN ITS
WAKE...COVERING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
REGION BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A CONTINUED DRY PATTER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ON SUN WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LOWER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
LIGHT ONSHORE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MOSTLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ON
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE ON SUN DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS COMBINED WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH
IS STILL 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES ON
TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER INLAND
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR/OVER THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN WHILE ADVANCING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A SOUTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY BECOMES PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INITIALLY NEAR 1.0 INCH DECREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE PERIOD TO A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES OF 0.75-1.0
INCHES. WITH SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES TREND GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THEN TREND TO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S LATER IN THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S CLOSE TO THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
BACK BUILD TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER THERMAL/PRES GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LEADING TO A GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY FROM FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN LATE MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  82  60  83  61 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   60  80  64  81  65 /  00  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      61  80  66  81  66 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   51  85  56  85  57 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  49  83  55  83  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      51  85  56  84  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   50  85  57  86  58 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 030446
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRENDS RUNNING A BIT COOLER THIS EVENING...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE DRY AIR MASS HAS RADIATED WELL AND
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK GENERALLY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT BY FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW
ALONG THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT CLEAR AND NEAR CALM FORECAST
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TAFS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 030446
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRENDS RUNNING A BIT COOLER THIS EVENING...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE DRY AIR MASS HAS RADIATED WELL AND
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK GENERALLY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT BY FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW
ALONG THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT CLEAR AND NEAR CALM FORECAST
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TAFS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 030446
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRENDS RUNNING A BIT COOLER THIS EVENING...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE DRY AIR MASS HAS RADIATED WELL AND
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK GENERALLY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT BY FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW
ALONG THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT CLEAR AND NEAR CALM FORECAST
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TAFS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 030446
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRENDS RUNNING A BIT COOLER THIS EVENING...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE DRY AIR MASS HAS RADIATED WELL AND
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK GENERALLY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT BY FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW
ALONG THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT CLEAR AND NEAR CALM FORECAST
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TAFS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 030243
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
943 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRENDS RUNNING A BIT COOLER THIS EVENING...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE DRY AIR MASS HAS RADIATED WELL AND
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK GENERALLY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT BY FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW
ALONG THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  80  54  81  55 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    51  80  56  81  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  54  81  57  82  59 /   0   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  53  82  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      52  81  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  79  58  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  83  59  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        50  83  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 030243
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
943 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRENDS RUNNING A BIT COOLER THIS EVENING...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE DRY AIR MASS HAS RADIATED WELL AND
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK GENERALLY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT BY FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW
ALONG THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  80  54  81  55 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    51  80  56  81  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  54  81  57  82  59 /   0   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  53  82  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      52  81  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  79  58  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  83  59  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        50  83  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 030243
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
943 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRENDS RUNNING A BIT COOLER THIS EVENING...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE DRY AIR MASS HAS RADIATED WELL AND
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK GENERALLY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT BY FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW
ALONG THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  80  54  81  55 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    51  80  56  81  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  54  81  57  82  59 /   0   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  53  82  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      52  81  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  79  58  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  83  59  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        50  83  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 030243
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
943 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRENDS RUNNING A BIT COOLER THIS EVENING...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE DRY AIR MASS HAS RADIATED WELL AND
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK GENERALLY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT BY FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW
ALONG THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  80  54  81  55 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    51  80  56  81  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  54  81  57  82  59 /   0   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  53  82  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      52  81  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  79  58  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  83  59  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        50  83  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 030240 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
940 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES ABOUNDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION.
9 PM TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE RADAR AND VELOCITY DATA INDICATED
AN INVERSION HAS FORMED ALOFT...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS IN THE
10-20KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

ONLY A FEW HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE HEADED IN AN ESE DIRECTION
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A FEW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR WORDING WILL HOLD. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
THE LOWER 50S MOST SPOTS. PLENTIFUL SUN EARLIER TODAY HELPED TO
DRY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MORE THAN WAS THE CAST YESTERDAY. DESPITE
THAT...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. GIVEN
SPARSITY OF EXPECTED FOG AND ONLY SHORT-TIME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING FOG THIS ISSUANCE.

DID MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH WON`T
CHANGE THE GENERAL FORECAST THINKING. UPDATED DIGITAL TEXT
PRODUCTS...AKA AFM/PFM/SFT HAVE BEEN SENT. WILL HAVE AN UPDATED
GRAPHICCAST FORTHCOMING SHORTLY TOO.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM BR TEMP GROUPING FROM
09Z-13Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL...AS IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL FORM THAT COULD DROP VISIBILITIES AT TIMES INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY.

TT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOW. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING AS MUCH AS WE
SAW LAST NIGHT...AND SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE VALLEY FOG AT BAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT REALIZED...THE LIGHT WINDS AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES WOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID...TO
EVEN UPPER...80S BY MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY...LIMITED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH ASHORE AND MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT
ITS PROGRESSION. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST...ONCE AGAIN LIMITING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE FINALLY WEAKENS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TO THE
REGION...HOWEVER WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 030240 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
940 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES ABOUNDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION.
9 PM TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE RADAR AND VELOCITY DATA INDICATED
AN INVERSION HAS FORMED ALOFT...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS IN THE
10-20KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

ONLY A FEW HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE HEADED IN AN ESE DIRECTION
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A FEW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR WORDING WILL HOLD. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
THE LOWER 50S MOST SPOTS. PLENTIFUL SUN EARLIER TODAY HELPED TO
DRY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MORE THAN WAS THE CAST YESTERDAY. DESPITE
THAT...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. GIVEN
SPARSITY OF EXPECTED FOG AND ONLY SHORT-TIME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING FOG THIS ISSUANCE.

DID MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH WON`T
CHANGE THE GENERAL FORECAST THINKING. UPDATED DIGITAL TEXT
PRODUCTS...AKA AFM/PFM/SFT HAVE BEEN SENT. WILL HAVE AN UPDATED
GRAPHICCAST FORTHCOMING SHORTLY TOO.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM BR TEMP GROUPING FROM
09Z-13Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL...AS IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL FORM THAT COULD DROP VISIBILITIES AT TIMES INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY.

TT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOW. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING AS MUCH AS WE
SAW LAST NIGHT...AND SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE VALLEY FOG AT BAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT REALIZED...THE LIGHT WINDS AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES WOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID...TO
EVEN UPPER...80S BY MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY...LIMITED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH ASHORE AND MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT
ITS PROGRESSION. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST...ONCE AGAIN LIMITING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE FINALLY WEAKENS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TO THE
REGION...HOWEVER WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 030240 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
940 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES ABOUNDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION.
9 PM TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE RADAR AND VELOCITY DATA INDICATED
AN INVERSION HAS FORMED ALOFT...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS IN THE
10-20KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

ONLY A FEW HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE HEADED IN AN ESE DIRECTION
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A FEW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR WORDING WILL HOLD. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
THE LOWER 50S MOST SPOTS. PLENTIFUL SUN EARLIER TODAY HELPED TO
DRY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MORE THAN WAS THE CAST YESTERDAY. DESPITE
THAT...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. GIVEN
SPARSITY OF EXPECTED FOG AND ONLY SHORT-TIME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING FOG THIS ISSUANCE.

DID MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH WON`T
CHANGE THE GENERAL FORECAST THINKING. UPDATED DIGITAL TEXT
PRODUCTS...AKA AFM/PFM/SFT HAVE BEEN SENT. WILL HAVE AN UPDATED
GRAPHICCAST FORTHCOMING SHORTLY TOO.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM BR TEMP GROUPING FROM
09Z-13Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL...AS IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL FORM THAT COULD DROP VISIBILITIES AT TIMES INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY.

TT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOW. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING AS MUCH AS WE
SAW LAST NIGHT...AND SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE VALLEY FOG AT BAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT REALIZED...THE LIGHT WINDS AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES WOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID...TO
EVEN UPPER...80S BY MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY...LIMITED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH ASHORE AND MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT
ITS PROGRESSION. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST...ONCE AGAIN LIMITING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE FINALLY WEAKENS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TO THE
REGION...HOWEVER WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 022357 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
657 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
03.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
04.00Z. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS BY NOON. A
FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. TO THE EAST AND SOUTH A MID TO UPPER
TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN WITH A BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE IN ITS
WAKE...COVERING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
REGION BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A CONTINUED DRY PATTER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ON SUN WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LOWER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
LIGHT ONSHORE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MOSTLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ON
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE ON SUN DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS COMBINED WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH
IS STILL 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES ON
TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER INLAND
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR/OVER THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN WHILE ADVANCING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A SOUTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY BECOMES PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INITIALLY NEAR 1.0 INCH DECREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE PERIOD TO A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES OF 0.75-1.0
INCHES. WITH SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES TREND GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THEN TREND TO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S LATER IN THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S CLOSE TO THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
BACK BUILD TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER THERMAL/PRES GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LEADING TO A GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY FROM FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN LATE MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  82  60  83  61 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   60  80  64  81  65 /  00  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      61  80  66  81  66 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   51  85  56  85  57 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  49  83  55  83  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      51  85  56  84  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   50  85  57  86  58 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 022357 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
657 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
03.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
04.00Z. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS BY NOON. A
FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. TO THE EAST AND SOUTH A MID TO UPPER
TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN WITH A BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE IN ITS
WAKE...COVERING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
REGION BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A CONTINUED DRY PATTER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ON SUN WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LOWER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
LIGHT ONSHORE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MOSTLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ON
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE ON SUN DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS COMBINED WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH
IS STILL 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES ON
TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER INLAND
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR/OVER THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN WHILE ADVANCING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A SOUTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY BECOMES PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INITIALLY NEAR 1.0 INCH DECREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE PERIOD TO A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES OF 0.75-1.0
INCHES. WITH SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES TREND GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THEN TREND TO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S LATER IN THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S CLOSE TO THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
BACK BUILD TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER THERMAL/PRES GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LEADING TO A GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY FROM FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN LATE MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  82  60  83  61 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   60  80  64  81  65 /  00  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      61  80  66  81  66 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   51  85  56  85  57 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  49  83  55  83  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      51  85  56  84  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   50  85  57  86  58 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 022329
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
629 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SUNNY SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
YESTERDAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EXITING WITH THE RIDGE
AND HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TENNESSE VALLEY AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN CHECK AND WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 90S.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 022329
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
629 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SUNNY SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
YESTERDAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EXITING WITH THE RIDGE
AND HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TENNESSE VALLEY AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN CHECK AND WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 90S.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 022329
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
629 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SUNNY SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
YESTERDAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EXITING WITH THE RIDGE
AND HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TENNESSE VALLEY AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN CHECK AND WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 90S.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 022329
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
629 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SUNNY SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
YESTERDAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EXITING WITH THE RIDGE
AND HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TENNESSE VALLEY AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN CHECK AND WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 90S.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOW. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING AS MUCH AS WE
SAW LAST NIGHT...AND SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE VALLEY FOG AT BAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT REALIZED...THE LIGHT WINDS AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES WOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID...TO
EVEN UPPER...80S BY MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY...LIMITED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH ASHORE AND MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT
ITS PROGRESSION. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST...ONCE AGAIN LIMITING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE FINALLY WEAKENS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TO THE
REGION...HOWEVER WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM BR TEMP GROUPING FROM
09Z-13Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL...AS IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL FORM THAT COULD DROP VISIBILITIES AT TIMES INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOW. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING AS MUCH AS WE
SAW LAST NIGHT...AND SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE VALLEY FOG AT BAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT REALIZED...THE LIGHT WINDS AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES WOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID...TO
EVEN UPPER...80S BY MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY...LIMITED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH ASHORE AND MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT
ITS PROGRESSION. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST...ONCE AGAIN LIMITING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE FINALLY WEAKENS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TO THE
REGION...HOWEVER WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM BR TEMP GROUPING FROM
09Z-13Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL...AS IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL FORM THAT COULD DROP VISIBILITIES AT TIMES INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOW. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING AS MUCH AS WE
SAW LAST NIGHT...AND SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE VALLEY FOG AT BAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT REALIZED...THE LIGHT WINDS AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES WOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID...TO
EVEN UPPER...80S BY MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY...LIMITED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH ASHORE AND MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT
ITS PROGRESSION. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST...ONCE AGAIN LIMITING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE FINALLY WEAKENS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TO THE
REGION...HOWEVER WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM BR TEMP GROUPING FROM
09Z-13Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL...AS IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL FORM THAT COULD DROP VISIBILITIES AT TIMES INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOW. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING AS MUCH AS WE
SAW LAST NIGHT...AND SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE VALLEY FOG AT BAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT REALIZED...THE LIGHT WINDS AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES WOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID...TO
EVEN UPPER...80S BY MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY...LIMITED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH ASHORE AND MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT
ITS PROGRESSION. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST...ONCE AGAIN LIMITING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE FINALLY WEAKENS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TO THE
REGION...HOWEVER WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM BR TEMP GROUPING FROM
09Z-13Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL...AS IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL FORM THAT COULD DROP VISIBILITIES AT TIMES INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOW. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING AS MUCH AS WE
SAW LAST NIGHT...AND SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE VALLEY FOG AT BAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT REALIZED...THE LIGHT WINDS AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES WOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID...TO
EVEN UPPER...80S BY MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY...LIMITED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH ASHORE AND MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT
ITS PROGRESSION. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST...ONCE AGAIN LIMITING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE FINALLY WEAKENS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TO THE
REGION...HOWEVER WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM BR TEMP GROUPING FROM
09Z-13Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL...AS IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL FORM THAT COULD DROP VISIBILITIES AT TIMES INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOW. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING AS MUCH AS WE
SAW LAST NIGHT...AND SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE VALLEY FOG AT BAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT REALIZED...THE LIGHT WINDS AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES WOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID...TO
EVEN UPPER...80S BY MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY...LIMITED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH ASHORE AND MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT
ITS PROGRESSION. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST...ONCE AGAIN LIMITING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE FINALLY WEAKENS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TO THE
REGION...HOWEVER WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM BR TEMP GROUPING FROM
09Z-13Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL...AS IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL FORM THAT COULD DROP VISIBILITIES AT TIMES INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 022024
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. TO THE EAST AND SOUTH A MID TO UPPER
TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN WITH A BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE IN ITS
WAKE...COVERING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
REGION BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A CONTINUED DRY PATTER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ON SUN WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LOWER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
LIGHT ONSHORE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MOSTLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ON
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE ON SUN DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS COMBINED WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH
IS STILL 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES ON
TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER INLAND
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR/OVER THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN WHILE ADVANCING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A SOUTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY BECOMES PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INITIALLY NEAR 1.0 INCH DECREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE PERIOD TO A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES OF 0.75-1.0
INCHES. WITH SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES TREND GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THEN TREND TO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S LATER IN THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S CLOSE TO THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
BACK BUILD TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER THERMAL/PRES GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LEADING TO A GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY FROM FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN LATE MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03.18Z. A FEW LOW TO MID
CLOUDS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY ON SUN WITH THE
BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 7 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUN THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8
TO 12 KNOTS LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  82  60  83  61 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   60  80  64  81  65 /  00  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      61  80  66  81  66 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   51  85  56  85  57 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  49  83  55  83  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      51  85  56  84  57 /  00  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   50  85  57  86  58 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021926
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
226 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOW. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING AS MUCH AS WE
SAW LAST NIGHT...AND SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE VALLEY FOG AT BAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT REALIZED...THE LIGHT WINDS AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES WOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID...TO
EVEN UPPER...80S BY MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY...LIMITED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH ASHORE AND MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT
ITS PROGRESSION. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST...ONCE AGAIN LIMITING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE RIDGE FINALLY WEAKENS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TO THE
REGION...HOWEVER WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1219 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
AREA...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    53  80  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        51  80  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      52  78  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  50  76  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   51  79  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    48  77  52  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SUNNY SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
YESTERDAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EXITING WITH THE RIDGE
AND HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TENNESSE VALLEY AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN CHECK AND WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 90S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  80  54  81  55 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    51  80  56  81  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  52  81  57  82  59 /   0   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  51  82  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      53  81  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      54  79  58  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  54  83  59  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        52  83  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 021923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SUNNY SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
YESTERDAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EXITING WITH THE RIDGE
AND HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TENNESSE VALLEY AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN CHECK AND WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 90S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  80  54  81  55 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    51  80  56  81  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  52  81  57  82  59 /   0   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  51  82  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      53  81  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      54  79  58  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  54  83  59  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        52  83  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 021923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SUNNY SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
YESTERDAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EXITING WITH THE RIDGE
AND HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TENNESSE VALLEY AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN CHECK AND WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 90S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  80  54  81  55 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    51  80  56  81  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  52  81  57  82  59 /   0   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  51  82  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      53  81  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      54  79  58  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  54  83  59  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        52  83  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021830 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
130 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
02.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03.18Z. A FEW LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY ON SUN WITH THE BETTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUN THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12
KNOTS LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN
PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM. CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIRMASS
OVERLYING THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A COOL START FOR TODAY BUT DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF OUR RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...GIVING US ANOTHER NIGHT OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
INLAND TO MID 50S AT THE COAST. 08/JW

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...LITTLE NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH THE RETURN FLOW.
RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES THOUGH...SO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO THE MID 60S COASTAL. 12/DS

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO
REAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING
AS WELL. A BETTER ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A SLOW AND GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION. EVEN SO...WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ANY PCPN ATTM. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S (EXCEPT UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES) BUT WARMING TO THE LOW 80S COASTAL AND MID 80S INLAND BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT. 12/DS

AVIATION...02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST SFC WINDS.
08/JW

MARINE....A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 08/JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  81  61  82  62 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   57  80  64  81  65 /  00  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      61  79  65  78  67 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   50  83  57  83  59 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  50  83  55  82  58 /  00  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      48  82  57  83  59 /  00  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   48  83  56  83  61 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021830 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
130 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
02.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03.18Z. A FEW LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY ON SUN WITH THE BETTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUN THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12
KNOTS LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN
PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM. CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIRMASS
OVERLYING THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A COOL START FOR TODAY BUT DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF OUR RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...GIVING US ANOTHER NIGHT OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
INLAND TO MID 50S AT THE COAST. 08/JW

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...LITTLE NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH THE RETURN FLOW.
RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES THOUGH...SO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO THE MID 60S COASTAL. 12/DS

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO
REAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING
AS WELL. A BETTER ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A SLOW AND GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION. EVEN SO...WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ANY PCPN ATTM. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S (EXCEPT UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES) BUT WARMING TO THE LOW 80S COASTAL AND MID 80S INLAND BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT. 12/DS

AVIATION...02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST SFC WINDS.
08/JW

MARINE....A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 08/JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  81  61  82  62 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   57  80  64  81  65 /  00  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      61  79  65  78  67 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   50  83  57  83  59 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  50  83  55  82  58 /  00  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      48  82  57  83  59 /  00  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   48  83  56  83  61 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 021830 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
130 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
02.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03.18Z. A FEW LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY ON SUN WITH THE BETTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUN THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12
KNOTS LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN
PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM. CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIRMASS
OVERLYING THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A COOL START FOR TODAY BUT DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF OUR RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...GIVING US ANOTHER NIGHT OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
INLAND TO MID 50S AT THE COAST. 08/JW

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...LITTLE NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH THE RETURN FLOW.
RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES THOUGH...SO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO THE MID 60S COASTAL. 12/DS

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO
REAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING
AS WELL. A BETTER ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A SLOW AND GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION. EVEN SO...WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ANY PCPN ATTM. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S (EXCEPT UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES) BUT WARMING TO THE LOW 80S COASTAL AND MID 80S INLAND BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT. 12/DS

AVIATION...02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST SFC WINDS.
08/JW

MARINE....A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 08/JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  81  61  82  62 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   57  80  64  81  65 /  00  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      61  79  65  78  67 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   50  83  57  83  59 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  50  83  55  82  58 /  00  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      48  82  57  83  59 /  00  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   48  83  56  83  61 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 021830 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
130 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
02.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03.18Z. A FEW LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY ON SUN WITH THE BETTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUN THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12
KNOTS LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN
PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM. CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIRMASS
OVERLYING THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A COOL START FOR TODAY BUT DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF OUR RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...GIVING US ANOTHER NIGHT OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
INLAND TO MID 50S AT THE COAST. 08/JW

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...LITTLE NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH THE RETURN FLOW.
RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES THOUGH...SO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO THE MID 60S COASTAL. 12/DS

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO
REAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING
AS WELL. A BETTER ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A SLOW AND GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION. EVEN SO...WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ANY PCPN ATTM. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S (EXCEPT UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES) BUT WARMING TO THE LOW 80S COASTAL AND MID 80S INLAND BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT. 12/DS

AVIATION...02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST SFC WINDS.
08/JW

MARINE....A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 08/JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  81  61  82  62 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   57  80  64  81  65 /  00  05  10  10  10
DESTIN      61  79  65  78  67 /  00  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   50  83  57  83  59 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  50  83  55  82  58 /  00  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      48  82  57  83  59 /  00  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   48  83  56  83  61 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021759 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1259 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WIND
FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS AND RESULTING DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
EAST FLORIDA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE AND CREATE A MINI-RIDGE OVER ALABAMA. A BROAD
UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  49  79  54  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    75  51  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  76  53  80  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  79  51  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      75  53  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      77  54  78  58  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  78  54  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        78  52  82  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021759 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1259 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WIND
FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS AND RESULTING DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
EAST FLORIDA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE AND CREATE A MINI-RIDGE OVER ALABAMA. A BROAD
UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  49  79  54  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    75  51  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  76  53  80  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  79  51  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      75  53  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      77  54  78  58  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  78  54  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        78  52  82  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 021759 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1259 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WIND
FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS AND RESULTING DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
EAST FLORIDA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE AND CREATE A MINI-RIDGE OVER ALABAMA. A BROAD
UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  49  79  54  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    75  51  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  76  53  80  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  79  51  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      75  53  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      77  54  78  58  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  78  54  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        78  52  82  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021719 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
A DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVE BUILT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
STREAM IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH
GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND LESS OF A GRADIENT AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AS SFC MOISTURE HAS NOT DRIED OUT QUICKLY AS
FORECASTED...ESPECIALLY IN NE AL. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
AREA...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021719 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
A DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVE BUILT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
STREAM IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH
GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND LESS OF A GRADIENT AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AS SFC MOISTURE HAS NOT DRIED OUT QUICKLY AS
FORECASTED...ESPECIALLY IN NE AL. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
AREA...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021719 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
A DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVE BUILT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
STREAM IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH
GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND LESS OF A GRADIENT AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AS SFC MOISTURE HAS NOT DRIED OUT QUICKLY AS
FORECASTED...ESPECIALLY IN NE AL. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
AREA...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021610 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1110 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WIND
FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS AND RESULTING DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
EAST FLORIDA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE AND CREATE A MINI-RIDGE OVER ALABAMA. A BROAD
UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  49  79  54  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    75  51  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  76  53  80  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  79  51  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      75  53  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      77  54  78  58  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  78  54  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        78  52  82  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 021610 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1110 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WIND
FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS AND RESULTING DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
EAST FLORIDA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE AND CREATE A MINI-RIDGE OVER ALABAMA. A BROAD
UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  49  79  54  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    75  51  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  76  53  80  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  79  51  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      75  53  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      77  54  78  58  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  78  54  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        78  52  82  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021530 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVE BUILT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
STREAM IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH
GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND LESS OF A GRADIENT AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AS SFC MOISTURE HAS NOT DRIED OUT QUICKLY AS
FORECASTED...ESPECIALLY IN NE AL. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 652 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY WITHIN FIRST 30
MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD AT BOTH HSV/MSL...AS VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TODAY WITH SCT MORNING CI FOLLOWED BY
FEW CU/AC THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN BTWN 03/08-12Z...THICKER LAYERS OF AC/CI MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND HINDER DEVELOPMENT -- SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
VSBY REDUCTIONS IN EITHER TAF ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021530 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVE BUILT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
STREAM IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH
GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND LESS OF A GRADIENT AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AS SFC MOISTURE HAS NOT DRIED OUT QUICKLY AS
FORECASTED...ESPECIALLY IN NE AL. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 652 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY WITHIN FIRST 30
MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD AT BOTH HSV/MSL...AS VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TODAY WITH SCT MORNING CI FOLLOWED BY
FEW CU/AC THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN BTWN 03/08-12Z...THICKER LAYERS OF AC/CI MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND HINDER DEVELOPMENT -- SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
VSBY REDUCTIONS IN EITHER TAF ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021530 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVE BUILT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
STREAM IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH
GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND LESS OF A GRADIENT AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AS SFC MOISTURE HAS NOT DRIED OUT QUICKLY AS
FORECASTED...ESPECIALLY IN NE AL. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 652 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY WITHIN FIRST 30
MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD AT BOTH HSV/MSL...AS VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TODAY WITH SCT MORNING CI FOLLOWED BY
FEW CU/AC THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN BTWN 03/08-12Z...THICKER LAYERS OF AC/CI MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND HINDER DEVELOPMENT -- SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
VSBY REDUCTIONS IN EITHER TAF ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021152
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 134 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTING THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, WITH NWLY FLOW IN IT`S WAKE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TN
VALLEY. AN ELONGATED WAVE WAS TRACKING THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CORN BELT, AND WEAK WAVES WERE TRAVERSING W TO EAST THRU
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK JUST TO THE N
OF OUR REGION AS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 850 MB RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST, PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
AND DRY SPRING WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 500 AND 850 MB
RIDGE POSITIONS BUILD NWWD OVER THE OH AND UPPER TN VALLEYS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING A TROF LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE DESERT
SW AND THRU THE PLAINS.

DESPITE THE GROWING RIDGE IN PLACE, THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS (MAINLY TO OUR NE). WE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ATTM, WITH ANY RAIN CHC LIKELY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. CERTAINLY A SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH COMFORTABLY
WARM TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH WENT A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS LATER NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY, THE
10 DAY MODEL RAIN ACCUMULATION FORECASTS INDICATE SRN AL AND GA TO BE
ONE OF THE DRIEST IN THE NATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY WITHIN FIRST 30
MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD AT BOTH HSV/MSL...AS VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TODAY WITH SCT MORNING CI FOLLOWED BY
FEW CU/AC THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN BTWN 03/08-12Z...THICKER LAYERS OF AC/CI MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND HINDER DEVELOPMENT -- SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
VSBY REDUCTIONS IN EITHER TAF ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021152
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 134 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTING THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, WITH NWLY FLOW IN IT`S WAKE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TN
VALLEY. AN ELONGATED WAVE WAS TRACKING THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CORN BELT, AND WEAK WAVES WERE TRAVERSING W TO EAST THRU
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK JUST TO THE N
OF OUR REGION AS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 850 MB RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST, PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
AND DRY SPRING WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 500 AND 850 MB
RIDGE POSITIONS BUILD NWWD OVER THE OH AND UPPER TN VALLEYS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING A TROF LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE DESERT
SW AND THRU THE PLAINS.

DESPITE THE GROWING RIDGE IN PLACE, THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS (MAINLY TO OUR NE). WE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ATTM, WITH ANY RAIN CHC LIKELY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. CERTAINLY A SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH COMFORTABLY
WARM TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH WENT A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS LATER NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY, THE
10 DAY MODEL RAIN ACCUMULATION FORECASTS INDICATE SRN AL AND GA TO BE
ONE OF THE DRIEST IN THE NATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY WITHIN FIRST 30
MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD AT BOTH HSV/MSL...AS VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TODAY WITH SCT MORNING CI FOLLOWED BY
FEW CU/AC THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN BTWN 03/08-12Z...THICKER LAYERS OF AC/CI MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND HINDER DEVELOPMENT -- SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
VSBY REDUCTIONS IN EITHER TAF ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021152
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 134 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTING THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, WITH NWLY FLOW IN IT`S WAKE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TN
VALLEY. AN ELONGATED WAVE WAS TRACKING THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CORN BELT, AND WEAK WAVES WERE TRAVERSING W TO EAST THRU
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK JUST TO THE N
OF OUR REGION AS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 850 MB RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST, PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
AND DRY SPRING WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 500 AND 850 MB
RIDGE POSITIONS BUILD NWWD OVER THE OH AND UPPER TN VALLEYS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING A TROF LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE DESERT
SW AND THRU THE PLAINS.

DESPITE THE GROWING RIDGE IN PLACE, THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS (MAINLY TO OUR NE). WE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ATTM, WITH ANY RAIN CHC LIKELY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. CERTAINLY A SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH COMFORTABLY
WARM TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH WENT A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS LATER NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY, THE
10 DAY MODEL RAIN ACCUMULATION FORECASTS INDICATE SRN AL AND GA TO BE
ONE OF THE DRIEST IN THE NATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY WITHIN FIRST 30
MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD AT BOTH HSV/MSL...AS VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TODAY WITH SCT MORNING CI FOLLOWED BY
FEW CU/AC THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN BTWN 03/08-12Z...THICKER LAYERS OF AC/CI MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND HINDER DEVELOPMENT -- SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
VSBY REDUCTIONS IN EITHER TAF ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021152
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 134 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTING THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, WITH NWLY FLOW IN IT`S WAKE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TN
VALLEY. AN ELONGATED WAVE WAS TRACKING THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CORN BELT, AND WEAK WAVES WERE TRAVERSING W TO EAST THRU
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK JUST TO THE N
OF OUR REGION AS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 850 MB RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST, PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
AND DRY SPRING WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 500 AND 850 MB
RIDGE POSITIONS BUILD NWWD OVER THE OH AND UPPER TN VALLEYS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING A TROF LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE DESERT
SW AND THRU THE PLAINS.

DESPITE THE GROWING RIDGE IN PLACE, THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS (MAINLY TO OUR NE). WE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ATTM, WITH ANY RAIN CHC LIKELY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. CERTAINLY A SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH COMFORTABLY
WARM TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH WENT A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS LATER NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY, THE
10 DAY MODEL RAIN ACCUMULATION FORECASTS INDICATE SRN AL AND GA TO BE
ONE OF THE DRIEST IN THE NATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY WITHIN FIRST 30
MIN OF VALID TAF PERIOD AT BOTH HSV/MSL...AS VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TODAY WITH SCT MORNING CI FOLLOWED BY
FEW CU/AC THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN BTWN 03/08-12Z...THICKER LAYERS OF AC/CI MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND HINDER DEVELOPMENT -- SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
VSBY REDUCTIONS IN EITHER TAF ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 021140
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
640 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
EAST FLORIDA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE AND CREATE A MINI-RIDGE OVER ALABAMA. A BROAD
UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 021140
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
640 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
EAST FLORIDA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE AND CREATE A MINI-RIDGE OVER ALABAMA. A BROAD
UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021140
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
640 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
EAST FLORIDA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE AND CREATE A MINI-RIDGE OVER ALABAMA. A BROAD
UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 021140
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
640 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
EAST FLORIDA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE AND CREATE A MINI-RIDGE OVER ALABAMA. A BROAD
UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

87

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020915
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN
PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM. CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIRMASS
OVERLYING THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A COOL START FOR TODAY BUT DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF OUR RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...GIVING US ANOTHER NIGHT OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
INLAND TO MID 50S AT THE COAST. 08/JW

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...LITTLE NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH THE RETURN FLOW.
RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES THOUGH...SO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO THE MID 60S COASTAL. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO
REAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING
AS WELL. A BETTER ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A SLOW AND GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION. EVEN SO...WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ANY PCPN ATTM. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S (EXCEPT UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES) BUT WARMING TO THE LOW 80S COASTAL AND MID 80S INLAND BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST SFC WINDS.
08/JW

&&

.MARINE....A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 08/JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  52  81  61  82 /  00  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   80  57  80  64  81 /  00  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      80  61  79  65  78 /  00  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   80  50  83  57  83 /  00  00  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  81  50  83  55  82 /  00  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      80  48  82  57  83 /  00  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   82  48  83  56  83 /  00  00  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020915
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN
PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM. CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIRMASS
OVERLYING THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A COOL START FOR TODAY BUT DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF OUR RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...GIVING US ANOTHER NIGHT OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
INLAND TO MID 50S AT THE COAST. 08/JW

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...LITTLE NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH THE RETURN FLOW.
RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES THOUGH...SO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO THE MID 60S COASTAL. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO
REAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING
AS WELL. A BETTER ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A SLOW AND GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION. EVEN SO...WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ANY PCPN ATTM. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S (EXCEPT UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES) BUT WARMING TO THE LOW 80S COASTAL AND MID 80S INLAND BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST SFC WINDS.
08/JW

&&

.MARINE....A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 08/JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  52  81  61  82 /  00  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   80  57  80  64  81 /  00  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      80  61  79  65  78 /  00  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   80  50  83  57  83 /  00  00  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  81  50  83  55  82 /  00  00  05  05  05
CAMDEN      80  48  82  57  83 /  00  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   82  48  83  56  83 /  00  00  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020809
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
309 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
EAST FLORIDA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE AND CREATE A MINI-RIDGE OVER ALABAMA. A BROAD
UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  49  79  54  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    76  51  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  77  53  80  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  79  51  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  53  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      75  54  78  58  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  79  54  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        79  52  82  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020809
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
309 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
EAST FLORIDA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE AND CREATE A MINI-RIDGE OVER ALABAMA. A BROAD
UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  49  79  54  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    76  51  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  77  53  80  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  79  51  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  53  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      75  54  78  58  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  79  54  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        79  52  82  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020634
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
134 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTING THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, WITH NWLY FLOW IN IT`S WAKE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TN
VALLEY. AN ELONGATED WAVE WAS TRACKING THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CORN BELT, AND WEAK WAVES WERE TRAVERSING W TO EAST THRU
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK JUST TO THE N
OF OUR REGION AS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 850 MB RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST, PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
AND DRY SPRING WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 500 AND 850 MB
RIDGE POSITIONS BUILD NWWD OVER THE OH AND UPPER TN VALLEYS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING A TROF LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE DESERT
SW AND THRU THE PLAINS.

DESPITE THE GROWING RIDGE IN PLACE, THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS (MAINLY TO OUR NE). WE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ATTM, WITH ANY RAIN CHC LIKELY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. CERTAINLY A SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH COMFORTABLY
WARM TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH WENT A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS LATER NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY, THE
10 DAY MODEL RAIN ACCUMULATION FORECASTS INDICATE SRN AL AND GA TO BE
ONE OF THE DRIEST IN THE NATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1154 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
CLEARING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET SAT.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    77  51  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        77  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      73  52  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  74  46  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   74  49  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    73  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020634
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
134 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTING THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, WITH NWLY FLOW IN IT`S WAKE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TN
VALLEY. AN ELONGATED WAVE WAS TRACKING THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CORN BELT, AND WEAK WAVES WERE TRAVERSING W TO EAST THRU
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK JUST TO THE N
OF OUR REGION AS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 850 MB RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST, PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
AND DRY SPRING WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 500 AND 850 MB
RIDGE POSITIONS BUILD NWWD OVER THE OH AND UPPER TN VALLEYS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING A TROF LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE DESERT
SW AND THRU THE PLAINS.

DESPITE THE GROWING RIDGE IN PLACE, THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS (MAINLY TO OUR NE). WE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ATTM, WITH ANY RAIN CHC LIKELY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. CERTAINLY A SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH COMFORTABLY
WARM TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH WENT A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS LATER NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY, THE
10 DAY MODEL RAIN ACCUMULATION FORECASTS INDICATE SRN AL AND GA TO BE
ONE OF THE DRIEST IN THE NATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1154 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
CLEARING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET SAT.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    77  51  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        77  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      73  52  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  74  46  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   74  49  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    73  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020634
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
134 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTING THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, WITH NWLY FLOW IN IT`S WAKE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TN
VALLEY. AN ELONGATED WAVE WAS TRACKING THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CORN BELT, AND WEAK WAVES WERE TRAVERSING W TO EAST THRU
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK JUST TO THE N
OF OUR REGION AS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 850 MB RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST, PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
AND DRY SPRING WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 500 AND 850 MB
RIDGE POSITIONS BUILD NWWD OVER THE OH AND UPPER TN VALLEYS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING A TROF LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE DESERT
SW AND THRU THE PLAINS.

DESPITE THE GROWING RIDGE IN PLACE, THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS (MAINLY TO OUR NE). WE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ATTM, WITH ANY RAIN CHC LIKELY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. CERTAINLY A SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH COMFORTABLY
WARM TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH WENT A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS LATER NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY, THE
10 DAY MODEL RAIN ACCUMULATION FORECASTS INDICATE SRN AL AND GA TO BE
ONE OF THE DRIEST IN THE NATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1154 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
CLEARING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET SAT.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    77  51  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        77  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      73  52  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  74  46  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   74  49  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    73  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020634
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
134 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTING THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, WITH NWLY FLOW IN IT`S WAKE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TN
VALLEY. AN ELONGATED WAVE WAS TRACKING THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CORN BELT, AND WEAK WAVES WERE TRAVERSING W TO EAST THRU
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK JUST TO THE N
OF OUR REGION AS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 850 MB RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST, PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
AND DRY SPRING WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 500 AND 850 MB
RIDGE POSITIONS BUILD NWWD OVER THE OH AND UPPER TN VALLEYS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING A TROF LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE DESERT
SW AND THRU THE PLAINS.

DESPITE THE GROWING RIDGE IN PLACE, THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS (MAINLY TO OUR NE). WE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ATTM, WITH ANY RAIN CHC LIKELY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. CERTAINLY A SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH COMFORTABLY
WARM TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH WENT A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS LATER NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY, THE
10 DAY MODEL RAIN ACCUMULATION FORECASTS INDICATE SRN AL AND GA TO BE
ONE OF THE DRIEST IN THE NATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1154 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
CLEARING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET SAT.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    77  51  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        77  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      73  52  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  74  46  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   74  49  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    73  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020634
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
134 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTING THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, WITH NWLY FLOW IN IT`S WAKE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TN
VALLEY. AN ELONGATED WAVE WAS TRACKING THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CORN BELT, AND WEAK WAVES WERE TRAVERSING W TO EAST THRU
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK JUST TO THE N
OF OUR REGION AS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 850 MB RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST, PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
AND DRY SPRING WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 500 AND 850 MB
RIDGE POSITIONS BUILD NWWD OVER THE OH AND UPPER TN VALLEYS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING A TROF LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE DESERT
SW AND THRU THE PLAINS.

DESPITE THE GROWING RIDGE IN PLACE, THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS (MAINLY TO OUR NE). WE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ATTM, WITH ANY RAIN CHC LIKELY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. CERTAINLY A SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH COMFORTABLY
WARM TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH WENT A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS LATER NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY, THE
10 DAY MODEL RAIN ACCUMULATION FORECASTS INDICATE SRN AL AND GA TO BE
ONE OF THE DRIEST IN THE NATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1154 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
CLEARING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET SAT.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    77  51  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        77  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      73  52  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  74  46  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   74  49  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    73  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020634
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
134 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTING THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, WITH NWLY FLOW IN IT`S WAKE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TN
VALLEY. AN ELONGATED WAVE WAS TRACKING THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CORN BELT, AND WEAK WAVES WERE TRAVERSING W TO EAST THRU
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK JUST TO THE N
OF OUR REGION AS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 850 MB RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST, PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
AND DRY SPRING WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 500 AND 850 MB
RIDGE POSITIONS BUILD NWWD OVER THE OH AND UPPER TN VALLEYS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING A TROF LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE DESERT
SW AND THRU THE PLAINS.

DESPITE THE GROWING RIDGE IN PLACE, THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS (MAINLY TO OUR NE). WE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ATTM, WITH ANY RAIN CHC LIKELY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. CERTAINLY A SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH COMFORTABLY
WARM TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH WENT A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS LATER NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY, THE
10 DAY MODEL RAIN ACCUMULATION FORECASTS INDICATE SRN AL AND GA TO BE
ONE OF THE DRIEST IN THE NATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1154 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
CLEARING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET SAT.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    77  51  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        77  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      73  52  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  74  46  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   74  49  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    73  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020509
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1209 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE WEEKEND. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS
LOW WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
THIS EVENING WITH THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S IN MOST SPOTS. SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020509
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1209 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE WEEKEND. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS
LOW WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
THIS EVENING WITH THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S IN MOST SPOTS. SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020509
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1209 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE WEEKEND. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS
LOW WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
THIS EVENING WITH THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S IN MOST SPOTS. SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020509
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1209 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE WEEKEND. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS
LOW WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
THIS EVENING WITH THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S IN MOST SPOTS. SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020454 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1154 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 839 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
IN OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS DROPPED 5-8 DEGREES BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM AND UPDATED THE
TEMP TREND TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH LOWS
REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 40S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
CLEARING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET SAT.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020454 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1154 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 839 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
IN OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS DROPPED 5-8 DEGREES BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM AND UPDATED THE
TEMP TREND TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH LOWS
REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 40S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
CLEARING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET SAT.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020416 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1116 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
02.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  78  54  81  59 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   54  78  59  81  65 /  05  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      55  77  61  79  66 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  47  80  50  82  54 /  05  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   44  81  49  85  55 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 020416 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1116 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
02.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  78  54  81  59 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   54  78  59  81  65 /  05  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      55  77  61  79  66 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  47  80  50  82  54 /  05  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   44  81  49  85  55 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 020416 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1116 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
02.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  78  54  81  59 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   54  78  59  81  65 /  05  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      55  77  61  79  66 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  47  80  50  82  54 /  05  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   44  81  49  85  55 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020416 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1116 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
02.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  78  54  81  59 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   54  78  59  81  65 /  05  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      55  77  61  79  66 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  47  80  50  82  54 /  05  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   44  81  49  85  55 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020258
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
958 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE WEEKEND. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS
LOW WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
THIS EVENING WITH THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S IN MOST SPOTS. SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BLEED OVER OF SOME WINDS FOR AN HOUR
OR SO BEYOND 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT NOT OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 223 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BACK TO THE
WEST...THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING ONLY INDICATING 0.29 INCHES
OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED FOR EARLY MAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THIS HIGH TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT WELL TODAY DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT.

THE WEEKEND AND WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING EACH DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  76  49  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  77  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  48  77  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  77  51  82  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      48  77  53  81  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      47  76  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  49  79  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  79  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020258
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
958 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE WEEKEND. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS
LOW WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
THIS EVENING WITH THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S IN MOST SPOTS. SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BLEED OVER OF SOME WINDS FOR AN HOUR
OR SO BEYOND 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT NOT OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 223 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BACK TO THE
WEST...THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING ONLY INDICATING 0.29 INCHES
OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED FOR EARLY MAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THIS HIGH TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT WELL TODAY DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT.

THE WEEKEND AND WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING EACH DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  76  49  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  77  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  48  77  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  77  51  82  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      48  77  53  81  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      47  76  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  49  79  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  79  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020139 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
839 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
IN OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS DROPPED 5-8 DEGREES BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM AND UPDATED THE
TEMP TREND TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH LOWS
REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 40S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CU NOW OVER PORTIONS OF
MID/ERN TN SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET. ALSO WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.

007

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS THE SSE. RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A
DEPARTING EAST COAST SYSTEM...AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMING OVER AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST SPOTS...WITH HUNTSVILLE THE WARM
SPOT AT 71 AS OF 2 PM.

ON A WIDER VIEW...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE VA/NC COAST WAS NOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. ITS
MINOR INFLUENCE HERE (A FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS) SHOULD WANE AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WAS NOW
SOUTH OF THE MS/AL/FL COAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN...AS AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE SW CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN PART BEING ASSISTED BY AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
RESULT IN A NW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING ZONAL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN SW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE EAST COAST
NEXT WEEK. HOW STRONG AND/OR HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE TO THE COAST IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION...GIVEN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE.

FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
START ON A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...UPPER 70S SUNDAY...THEN 80S FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOS TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
WERE HINTING AT MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING DURING THE LATE NIGHTS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. THUS LEFT LATE NIGHT FOG IN FOR TONIGHT...SAT
AND SUN NIGHTS.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ATLANTIC LOW...AND THE
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW TO OUR WEST WILL PLAY A ROLE ON WHEN RAIN
CHANCES RETURN. GIVEN NEW OUTPUT WAS KEEPING THE AREA GENERALLY
DRY ON THU...HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES NEXT THURSDAY...
BUT INTRODUCED THEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020139 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
839 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
IN OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS DROPPED 5-8 DEGREES BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM AND UPDATED THE
TEMP TREND TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH LOWS
REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 40S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CU NOW OVER PORTIONS OF
MID/ERN TN SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET. ALSO WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.

007

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS THE SSE. RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A
DEPARTING EAST COAST SYSTEM...AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMING OVER AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST SPOTS...WITH HUNTSVILLE THE WARM
SPOT AT 71 AS OF 2 PM.

ON A WIDER VIEW...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE VA/NC COAST WAS NOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. ITS
MINOR INFLUENCE HERE (A FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS) SHOULD WANE AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WAS NOW
SOUTH OF THE MS/AL/FL COAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN...AS AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE SW CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN PART BEING ASSISTED BY AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
RESULT IN A NW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING ZONAL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN SW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE EAST COAST
NEXT WEEK. HOW STRONG AND/OR HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE TO THE COAST IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION...GIVEN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE.

FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
START ON A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...UPPER 70S SUNDAY...THEN 80S FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOS TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
WERE HINTING AT MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING DURING THE LATE NIGHTS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. THUS LEFT LATE NIGHT FOG IN FOR TONIGHT...SAT
AND SUN NIGHTS.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ATLANTIC LOW...AND THE
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW TO OUR WEST WILL PLAY A ROLE ON WHEN RAIN
CHANCES RETURN. GIVEN NEW OUTPUT WAS KEEPING THE AREA GENERALLY
DRY ON THU...HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES NEXT THURSDAY...
BUT INTRODUCED THEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 012336 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
02.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE THAT HAD
ALREADY PASSED WILL BRING WEAK TO MODERATE COLD ADVECTION TO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
AND UPPER 40S INLAND. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT DECREASES TO 10 MPH....WITH 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS
OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE. NOT A HINT OF RAIN...LAPSE RATES 3 TO 4 DEG C
PER KM WITH LIFTED INDICES IN THE TEENS AND DETECTABLE CAPE NEXT TO
ZERO...NO RAIN AT ALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND MID AND UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. NOW...WITH
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEARING AS THEY DO OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE A COMPLETE DECOUPLING OF THE
WIND...MINIMAL DOWNWARD MIXING...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES RADIATION
COOLING...PUSHING A LOW HERE OR THERE A BIT BELOW WHAT WE ARE SEEING
IN THE MOS OUTPUTS...PERHAPS AN UNREPORTED TEMPERATURE CLOSE TO 40.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD HAPPEN...AND HAS. 77/BD

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES GRADUALLY OFF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
IN THE PROCESS. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE NEAR 0.5-0.6
INCHES...ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THEN INCREASE TO SEASONABLE
VALUES NEAR 1.0 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MODEST
IMPROVEMENT IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF MONDAY
NIGHT...AND AN INCIPIENT INVERTED TROF BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IS
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE LEADS TO A MODEST TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...AFTER
WHICH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE AND IN THE MID 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES AND PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 80S. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MODEST UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROF EVOLVES INTO A
SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY WHILE TRANSITIONS TO
A FULL FLEDGED WARM CORE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS. WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF
MEANWHILE ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES...THE PRESENCE OF THIS
SYSTEM AIDS IN MAINTAINING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IN TURN AIDS IN DEFLECTING THE SHORTWAVE TROF OFF TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
SOME WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS AND WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST MOST OF THE PERIOD...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS TREND STEADILY WARMER TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE. IT WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATER...THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE EAST TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ITS
TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  78  54  81  59 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   54  78  59  81  65 /  05  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      55  77  61  79  66 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  47  80  50  82  54 /  05  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   44  81  49  85  55 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 012336 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
02.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE THAT HAD
ALREADY PASSED WILL BRING WEAK TO MODERATE COLD ADVECTION TO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
AND UPPER 40S INLAND. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT DECREASES TO 10 MPH....WITH 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS
OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE. NOT A HINT OF RAIN...LAPSE RATES 3 TO 4 DEG C
PER KM WITH LIFTED INDICES IN THE TEENS AND DETECTABLE CAPE NEXT TO
ZERO...NO RAIN AT ALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND MID AND UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. NOW...WITH
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEARING AS THEY DO OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE A COMPLETE DECOUPLING OF THE
WIND...MINIMAL DOWNWARD MIXING...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES RADIATION
COOLING...PUSHING A LOW HERE OR THERE A BIT BELOW WHAT WE ARE SEEING
IN THE MOS OUTPUTS...PERHAPS AN UNREPORTED TEMPERATURE CLOSE TO 40.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD HAPPEN...AND HAS. 77/BD

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES GRADUALLY OFF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
IN THE PROCESS. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE NEAR 0.5-0.6
INCHES...ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THEN INCREASE TO SEASONABLE
VALUES NEAR 1.0 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MODEST
IMPROVEMENT IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF MONDAY
NIGHT...AND AN INCIPIENT INVERTED TROF BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IS
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE LEADS TO A MODEST TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...AFTER
WHICH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE AND IN THE MID 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES AND PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 80S. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MODEST UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROF EVOLVES INTO A
SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY WHILE TRANSITIONS TO
A FULL FLEDGED WARM CORE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS. WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF
MEANWHILE ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES...THE PRESENCE OF THIS
SYSTEM AIDS IN MAINTAINING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IN TURN AIDS IN DEFLECTING THE SHORTWAVE TROF OFF TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
SOME WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS AND WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST MOST OF THE PERIOD...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS TREND STEADILY WARMER TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE. IT WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATER...THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE EAST TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ITS
TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  78  54  81  59 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   54  78  59  81  65 /  05  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      55  77  61  79  66 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  47  80  50  82  54 /  05  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   44  81  49  85  55 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 012336 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
02.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE THAT HAD
ALREADY PASSED WILL BRING WEAK TO MODERATE COLD ADVECTION TO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
AND UPPER 40S INLAND. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT DECREASES TO 10 MPH....WITH 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS
OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE. NOT A HINT OF RAIN...LAPSE RATES 3 TO 4 DEG C
PER KM WITH LIFTED INDICES IN THE TEENS AND DETECTABLE CAPE NEXT TO
ZERO...NO RAIN AT ALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND MID AND UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. NOW...WITH
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEARING AS THEY DO OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE A COMPLETE DECOUPLING OF THE
WIND...MINIMAL DOWNWARD MIXING...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES RADIATION
COOLING...PUSHING A LOW HERE OR THERE A BIT BELOW WHAT WE ARE SEEING
IN THE MOS OUTPUTS...PERHAPS AN UNREPORTED TEMPERATURE CLOSE TO 40.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD HAPPEN...AND HAS. 77/BD

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES GRADUALLY OFF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
IN THE PROCESS. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE NEAR 0.5-0.6
INCHES...ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THEN INCREASE TO SEASONABLE
VALUES NEAR 1.0 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MODEST
IMPROVEMENT IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF MONDAY
NIGHT...AND AN INCIPIENT INVERTED TROF BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IS
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE LEADS TO A MODEST TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...AFTER
WHICH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE AND IN THE MID 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES AND PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 80S. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MODEST UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROF EVOLVES INTO A
SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY WHILE TRANSITIONS TO
A FULL FLEDGED WARM CORE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS. WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF
MEANWHILE ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES...THE PRESENCE OF THIS
SYSTEM AIDS IN MAINTAINING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IN TURN AIDS IN DEFLECTING THE SHORTWAVE TROF OFF TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
SOME WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS AND WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST MOST OF THE PERIOD...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS TREND STEADILY WARMER TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE. IT WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATER...THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE EAST TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ITS
TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  78  54  81  59 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   54  78  59  81  65 /  05  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      55  77  61  79  66 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  47  80  50  82  54 /  05  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   44  81  49  85  55 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 012336 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
02.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE THAT HAD
ALREADY PASSED WILL BRING WEAK TO MODERATE COLD ADVECTION TO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
AND UPPER 40S INLAND. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT DECREASES TO 10 MPH....WITH 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS
OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE. NOT A HINT OF RAIN...LAPSE RATES 3 TO 4 DEG C
PER KM WITH LIFTED INDICES IN THE TEENS AND DETECTABLE CAPE NEXT TO
ZERO...NO RAIN AT ALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND MID AND UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. NOW...WITH
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEARING AS THEY DO OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE A COMPLETE DECOUPLING OF THE
WIND...MINIMAL DOWNWARD MIXING...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES RADIATION
COOLING...PUSHING A LOW HERE OR THERE A BIT BELOW WHAT WE ARE SEEING
IN THE MOS OUTPUTS...PERHAPS AN UNREPORTED TEMPERATURE CLOSE TO 40.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD HAPPEN...AND HAS. 77/BD

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES GRADUALLY OFF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
IN THE PROCESS. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE NEAR 0.5-0.6
INCHES...ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THEN INCREASE TO SEASONABLE
VALUES NEAR 1.0 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MODEST
IMPROVEMENT IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF MONDAY
NIGHT...AND AN INCIPIENT INVERTED TROF BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IS
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE LEADS TO A MODEST TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...AFTER
WHICH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE AND IN THE MID 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES AND PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 80S. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MODEST UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROF EVOLVES INTO A
SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY WHILE TRANSITIONS TO
A FULL FLEDGED WARM CORE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS. WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF
MEANWHILE ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES...THE PRESENCE OF THIS
SYSTEM AIDS IN MAINTAINING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IN TURN AIDS IN DEFLECTING THE SHORTWAVE TROF OFF TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
SOME WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS AND WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST MOST OF THE PERIOD...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS TREND STEADILY WARMER TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE. IT WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATER...THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE EAST TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ITS
TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  78  54  81  59 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   54  78  59  81  65 /  05  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      55  77  61  79  66 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  47  80  50  82  54 /  05  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   44  81  49  85  55 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 012336 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
02.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE THAT HAD
ALREADY PASSED WILL BRING WEAK TO MODERATE COLD ADVECTION TO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
AND UPPER 40S INLAND. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT DECREASES TO 10 MPH....WITH 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS
OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE. NOT A HINT OF RAIN...LAPSE RATES 3 TO 4 DEG C
PER KM WITH LIFTED INDICES IN THE TEENS AND DETECTABLE CAPE NEXT TO
ZERO...NO RAIN AT ALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND MID AND UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. NOW...WITH
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEARING AS THEY DO OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE A COMPLETE DECOUPLING OF THE
WIND...MINIMAL DOWNWARD MIXING...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES RADIATION
COOLING...PUSHING A LOW HERE OR THERE A BIT BELOW WHAT WE ARE SEEING
IN THE MOS OUTPUTS...PERHAPS AN UNREPORTED TEMPERATURE CLOSE TO 40.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD HAPPEN...AND HAS. 77/BD

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES GRADUALLY OFF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
IN THE PROCESS. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE NEAR 0.5-0.6
INCHES...ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THEN INCREASE TO SEASONABLE
VALUES NEAR 1.0 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MODEST
IMPROVEMENT IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF MONDAY
NIGHT...AND AN INCIPIENT INVERTED TROF BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IS
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE LEADS TO A MODEST TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...AFTER
WHICH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE AND IN THE MID 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES AND PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 80S. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MODEST UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROF EVOLVES INTO A
SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY WHILE TRANSITIONS TO
A FULL FLEDGED WARM CORE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS. WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF
MEANWHILE ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES...THE PRESENCE OF THIS
SYSTEM AIDS IN MAINTAINING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IN TURN AIDS IN DEFLECTING THE SHORTWAVE TROF OFF TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
SOME WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS AND WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST MOST OF THE PERIOD...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS TREND STEADILY WARMER TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE. IT WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATER...THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE EAST TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ITS
TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  78  54  81  59 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   54  78  59  81  65 /  05  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      55  77  61  79  66 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  47  80  50  82  54 /  05  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   44  81  49  85  55 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 012332
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BACK TO THE
WEST...THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING ONLY INDICATING 0.29 INCHES
OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED FOR EARLY MAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THIS HIGH TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT WELL TODAY DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT.

THE WEEKEND AND WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING EACH DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BLEED OVER OF SOME WINDS FOR AN HOUR
OR SO BEYOND 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT NOT OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 012332
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BACK TO THE
WEST...THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING ONLY INDICATING 0.29 INCHES
OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED FOR EARLY MAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THIS HIGH TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT WELL TODAY DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT.

THE WEEKEND AND WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING EACH DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BLEED OVER OF SOME WINDS FOR AN HOUR
OR SO BEYOND 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT NOT OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 012332
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BACK TO THE
WEST...THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING ONLY INDICATING 0.29 INCHES
OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED FOR EARLY MAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THIS HIGH TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT WELL TODAY DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT.

THE WEEKEND AND WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING EACH DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BLEED OVER OF SOME WINDS FOR AN HOUR
OR SO BEYOND 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT NOT OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 012319
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS THE SSE. RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A
DEPARTING EAST COAST SYSTEM...AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMING OVER AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST SPOTS...WITH HUNTSVILLE THE WARM
SPOT AT 71 AS OF 2 PM.

ON A WIDER VIEW...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE VA/NC COAST WAS NOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. ITS
MINOR INFLUENCE HERE (A FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS) SHOULD WANE AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WAS NOW
SOUTH OF THE MS/AL/FL COAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN...AS AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE SW CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN PART BEING ASSISTED BY AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
RESULT IN A NW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING ZONAL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN SW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE EAST COAST
NEXT WEEK. HOW STRONG AND/OR HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE TO THE COAST IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION...GIVEN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE.

FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
START ON A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...UPPER 70S SUNDAY...THEN 80S FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOS TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
WERE HINTING AT MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING DURING THE LATE NIGHTS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. THUS LEFT LATE NIGHT FOG IN FOR TONIGHT...SAT
AND SUN NIGHTS.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ATLANTIC LOW...AND THE
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW TO OUR WEST WILL PLAY A ROLE ON WHEN RAIN
CHANCES RETURN. GIVEN NEW OUTPUT WAS KEEPING THE AREA GENERALLY
DRY ON THU...HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES NEXT THURSDAY...
BUT INTRODUCED THEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CU NOW OVER PORTIONS OF
MID/ERN TN SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET. ALSO WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 012319
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS THE SSE. RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A
DEPARTING EAST COAST SYSTEM...AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMING OVER AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST SPOTS...WITH HUNTSVILLE THE WARM
SPOT AT 71 AS OF 2 PM.

ON A WIDER VIEW...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE VA/NC COAST WAS NOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. ITS
MINOR INFLUENCE HERE (A FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS) SHOULD WANE AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WAS NOW
SOUTH OF THE MS/AL/FL COAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN...AS AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE SW CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN PART BEING ASSISTED BY AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
RESULT IN A NW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING ZONAL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN SW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE EAST COAST
NEXT WEEK. HOW STRONG AND/OR HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE TO THE COAST IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION...GIVEN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE.

FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
START ON A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...UPPER 70S SUNDAY...THEN 80S FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOS TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
WERE HINTING AT MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING DURING THE LATE NIGHTS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. THUS LEFT LATE NIGHT FOG IN FOR TONIGHT...SAT
AND SUN NIGHTS.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ATLANTIC LOW...AND THE
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW TO OUR WEST WILL PLAY A ROLE ON WHEN RAIN
CHANCES RETURN. GIVEN NEW OUTPUT WAS KEEPING THE AREA GENERALLY
DRY ON THU...HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES NEXT THURSDAY...
BUT INTRODUCED THEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CU NOW OVER PORTIONS OF
MID/ERN TN SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET. ALSO WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 012319
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS THE SSE. RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A
DEPARTING EAST COAST SYSTEM...AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMING OVER AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST SPOTS...WITH HUNTSVILLE THE WARM
SPOT AT 71 AS OF 2 PM.

ON A WIDER VIEW...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE VA/NC COAST WAS NOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. ITS
MINOR INFLUENCE HERE (A FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS) SHOULD WANE AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WAS NOW
SOUTH OF THE MS/AL/FL COAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN...AS AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE SW CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN PART BEING ASSISTED BY AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
RESULT IN A NW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING ZONAL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN SW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE EAST COAST
NEXT WEEK. HOW STRONG AND/OR HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE TO THE COAST IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION...GIVEN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE.

FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
START ON A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...UPPER 70S SUNDAY...THEN 80S FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOS TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
WERE HINTING AT MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING DURING THE LATE NIGHTS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. THUS LEFT LATE NIGHT FOG IN FOR TONIGHT...SAT
AND SUN NIGHTS.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ATLANTIC LOW...AND THE
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW TO OUR WEST WILL PLAY A ROLE ON WHEN RAIN
CHANCES RETURN. GIVEN NEW OUTPUT WAS KEEPING THE AREA GENERALLY
DRY ON THU...HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES NEXT THURSDAY...
BUT INTRODUCED THEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CU NOW OVER PORTIONS OF
MID/ERN TN SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET. ALSO WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 012319
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS THE SSE. RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A
DEPARTING EAST COAST SYSTEM...AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMING OVER AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST SPOTS...WITH HUNTSVILLE THE WARM
SPOT AT 71 AS OF 2 PM.

ON A WIDER VIEW...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE VA/NC COAST WAS NOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. ITS
MINOR INFLUENCE HERE (A FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS) SHOULD WANE AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WAS NOW
SOUTH OF THE MS/AL/FL COAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN...AS AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE SW CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN PART BEING ASSISTED BY AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
RESULT IN A NW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING ZONAL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN SW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE EAST COAST
NEXT WEEK. HOW STRONG AND/OR HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE TO THE COAST IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION...GIVEN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE.

FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
START ON A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...UPPER 70S SUNDAY...THEN 80S FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOS TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
WERE HINTING AT MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING DURING THE LATE NIGHTS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. THUS LEFT LATE NIGHT FOG IN FOR TONIGHT...SAT
AND SUN NIGHTS.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ATLANTIC LOW...AND THE
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW TO OUR WEST WILL PLAY A ROLE ON WHEN RAIN
CHANCES RETURN. GIVEN NEW OUTPUT WAS KEEPING THE AREA GENERALLY
DRY ON THU...HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES NEXT THURSDAY...
BUT INTRODUCED THEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CU NOW OVER PORTIONS OF
MID/ERN TN SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET. ALSO WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 012319
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS THE SSE. RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A
DEPARTING EAST COAST SYSTEM...AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMING OVER AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST SPOTS...WITH HUNTSVILLE THE WARM
SPOT AT 71 AS OF 2 PM.

ON A WIDER VIEW...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE VA/NC COAST WAS NOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. ITS
MINOR INFLUENCE HERE (A FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS) SHOULD WANE AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WAS NOW
SOUTH OF THE MS/AL/FL COAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN...AS AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE SW CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN PART BEING ASSISTED BY AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
RESULT IN A NW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING ZONAL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN SW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE EAST COAST
NEXT WEEK. HOW STRONG AND/OR HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE TO THE COAST IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION...GIVEN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE.

FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
START ON A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...UPPER 70S SUNDAY...THEN 80S FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOS TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
WERE HINTING AT MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING DURING THE LATE NIGHTS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. THUS LEFT LATE NIGHT FOG IN FOR TONIGHT...SAT
AND SUN NIGHTS.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ATLANTIC LOW...AND THE
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW TO OUR WEST WILL PLAY A ROLE ON WHEN RAIN
CHANCES RETURN. GIVEN NEW OUTPUT WAS KEEPING THE AREA GENERALLY
DRY ON THU...HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES NEXT THURSDAY...
BUT INTRODUCED THEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CU NOW OVER PORTIONS OF
MID/ERN TN SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET. ALSO WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 012319
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS THE SSE. RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A
DEPARTING EAST COAST SYSTEM...AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMING OVER AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST SPOTS...WITH HUNTSVILLE THE WARM
SPOT AT 71 AS OF 2 PM.

ON A WIDER VIEW...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE VA/NC COAST WAS NOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. ITS
MINOR INFLUENCE HERE (A FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS) SHOULD WANE AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WAS NOW
SOUTH OF THE MS/AL/FL COAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN...AS AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE SW CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN PART BEING ASSISTED BY AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
RESULT IN A NW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING ZONAL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN SW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE EAST COAST
NEXT WEEK. HOW STRONG AND/OR HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE TO THE COAST IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION...GIVEN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE.

FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
START ON A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...UPPER 70S SUNDAY...THEN 80S FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOS TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
WERE HINTING AT MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING DURING THE LATE NIGHTS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. THUS LEFT LATE NIGHT FOG IN FOR TONIGHT...SAT
AND SUN NIGHTS.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ATLANTIC LOW...AND THE
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW TO OUR WEST WILL PLAY A ROLE ON WHEN RAIN
CHANCES RETURN. GIVEN NEW OUTPUT WAS KEEPING THE AREA GENERALLY
DRY ON THU...HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES NEXT THURSDAY...
BUT INTRODUCED THEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CU NOW OVER PORTIONS OF
MID/ERN TN SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET. ALSO WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 012050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE THAT HAD
ALREADY PASSED WILL BRING WEAK TO MODERATE COLD ADVECTION TO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
AND UPPER 40S INLAND. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT DECREASES TO 10 MPH....WITH 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS
OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE. NOT A HINT OF RAIN...LAPSE RATES 3 TO 4 DEG C
PER KM WITH LIFTED INDICES IN THE TEENS AND DETECTABLE CAPE NEXT TO
ZERO...NO RAIN AT ALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND MID AND UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. NOW...WITH
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEARING AS THEY DO OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE A COMPLETE DECOUPLING OF THE
WIND...MINIMAL DOWNWARD MIXING...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES RADIATION
COOLING...PUSHING A LOW HERE OR THERE A BIT BELOW WHAT WE ARE SEEING
IN THE MOS OUTPUTS...PERHAPS AN UNREPORTED TEMPERATURE CLOSE TO 40.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD HAPPEN...AND HAS. 77/BD

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES GRADUALLY OFF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
IN THE PROCESS. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE NEAR 0.5-0.6
INCHES...ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THEN INCREASE TO SEASONABLE
VALUES NEAR 1.0 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MODEST
IMPROVEMENT IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF MONDAY
NIGHT...AND AN INCIPIENT INVERTED TROF BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IS
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE LEADS TO A MODEST TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...AFTER
WHICH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE AND IN THE MID 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES AND PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 80S. /29

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MODEST UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROF EVOLVES INTO A
SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY WHILE TRANSITIONS TO
A FULL FLEDGED WARM CORE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS. WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF
MEANWHILE ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES...THE PRESENCE OF THIS
SYSTEM AIDS IN MAINTAINING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IN TURN AIDS IN DEFLECTING THE SHORTWAVE TROF OFF TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
SOME WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS AND WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST MOST OF THE PERIOD...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS TREND STEADILY WARMER TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE. IT WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATER...THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE EAST TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ITS
TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING. 77/BD

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND NORTH 5 TO 10
KNOTS EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  78  54  81  59 /  05  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   54  78  59  81  65 /  05  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      55  77  61  79  66 /  05  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  47  80  50  82  54 /  05  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      45  79  51  84  55 /  05  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   44  81  49  85  55 /  05  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011955
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS THE SSE. RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A
DEPARTING EAST COAST SYSTEM...AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMING OVER AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST SPOTS...WITH HUNTSVILLE THE WARM
SPOT AT 71 AS OF 2 PM.

ON A WIDER VIEW...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE VA/NC COAST WAS NOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. ITS
MINOR INFLUENCE HERE (A FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS) SHOULD WANE AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WAS NOW
SOUTH OF THE MS/AL/FL COAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN...AS AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE SW CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN PART BEING ASSISTED BY AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
RESULT IN A NW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING ZONAL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN SW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE EAST COAST
NEXT WEEK. HOW STRONG AND/OR HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE TO THE COAST IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION...GIVEN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE.

FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
START ON A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...UPPER 70S SUNDAY...THEN 80S FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOS TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
WERE HINTING AT MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING DURING THE LATE NIGHTS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. THUS LEFT LATE NIGHT FOG IN FOR TONIGHT...SAT
AND SUN NIGHTS.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ATLANTIC LOW...AND THE
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW TO OUR WEST WILL PLAY A ROLE ON WHEN RAIN
CHANCES RETURN. GIVEN NEW OUTPUT WAS KEEPING THE AREA GENERALLY
DRY ON THU...HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES NEXT THURSDAY...
BUT INTRODUCED THEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1208 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SWD INTO
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    48  76  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        47  77  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      47  75  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  46  75  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   47  73  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    44  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011955
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS THE SSE. RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A
DEPARTING EAST COAST SYSTEM...AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMING OVER AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST SPOTS...WITH HUNTSVILLE THE WARM
SPOT AT 71 AS OF 2 PM.

ON A WIDER VIEW...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE VA/NC COAST WAS NOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. ITS
MINOR INFLUENCE HERE (A FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS) SHOULD WANE AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WAS NOW
SOUTH OF THE MS/AL/FL COAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN...AS AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE SW CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN PART BEING ASSISTED BY AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
RESULT IN A NW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING ZONAL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN SW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF THE EAST COAST
NEXT WEEK. HOW STRONG AND/OR HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE TO THE COAST IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION...GIVEN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE.

FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
START ON A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...UPPER 70S SUNDAY...THEN 80S FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOS TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
WERE HINTING AT MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING DURING THE LATE NIGHTS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. THUS LEFT LATE NIGHT FOG IN FOR TONIGHT...SAT
AND SUN NIGHTS.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ATLANTIC LOW...AND THE
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW TO OUR WEST WILL PLAY A ROLE ON WHEN RAIN
CHANCES RETURN. GIVEN NEW OUTPUT WAS KEEPING THE AREA GENERALLY
DRY ON THU...HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES NEXT THURSDAY...
BUT INTRODUCED THEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1208 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SWD INTO
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    48  76  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        47  77  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      47  75  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  46  75  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   47  73  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    44  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BACK TO THE
WEST...THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING ONLY INDICATING 0.29 INCHES
OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED FOR EARLY MAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THIS HIGH TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT WELL TODAY DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT.

THE WEEKEND AND WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING EACH DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10-12 KNOTS...WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO
19KTS...ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE NORTH LATE NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN BOUNDARY WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED AND LOW SURFACE
MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE LIGHT AND VERY LOCALIZED TO
SHELTERED AREAS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     44  76  49  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  77  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  48  77  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  47  77  51  82  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      49  77  53  81  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  76  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  48  79  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  79  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BACK TO THE
WEST...THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING ONLY INDICATING 0.29 INCHES
OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED FOR EARLY MAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THIS HIGH TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT WELL TODAY DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT.

THE WEEKEND AND WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING EACH DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10-12 KNOTS...WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO
19KTS...ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE NORTH LATE NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN BOUNDARY WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED AND LOW SURFACE
MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE LIGHT AND VERY LOCALIZED TO
SHELTERED AREAS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     44  76  49  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  77  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  48  77  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  47  77  51  82  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      49  77  53  81  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  76  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  48  79  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  79  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BACK TO THE
WEST...THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING ONLY INDICATING 0.29 INCHES
OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED FOR EARLY MAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THIS HIGH TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT WELL TODAY DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT.

THE WEEKEND AND WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING EACH DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10-12 KNOTS...WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO
19KTS...ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE NORTH LATE NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN BOUNDARY WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED AND LOW SURFACE
MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE LIGHT AND VERY LOCALIZED TO
SHELTERED AREAS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     44  76  49  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  77  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  48  77  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  47  77  51  82  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      49  77  53  81  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  76  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  48  79  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  79  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BACK TO THE
WEST...THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING ONLY INDICATING 0.29 INCHES
OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED FOR EARLY MAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THIS HIGH TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT WELL TODAY DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT.

THE WEEKEND AND WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING EACH DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10-12 KNOTS...WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO
19KTS...ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE NORTH LATE NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN BOUNDARY WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED AND LOW SURFACE
MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE LIGHT AND VERY LOCALIZED TO
SHELTERED AREAS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     44  76  49  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  77  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  48  77  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  47  77  51  82  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      49  77  53  81  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  76  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  48  79  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  79  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BACK TO THE
WEST...THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING ONLY INDICATING 0.29 INCHES
OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED FOR EARLY MAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THIS HIGH TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT WELL TODAY DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT.

THE WEEKEND AND WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING EACH DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10-12 KNOTS...WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO
19KTS...ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE NORTH LATE NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN BOUNDARY WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED AND LOW SURFACE
MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE LIGHT AND VERY LOCALIZED TO
SHELTERED AREAS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     44  76  49  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  77  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  48  77  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  47  77  51  82  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      49  77  53  81  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  76  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  48  79  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  79  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BACK TO THE
WEST...THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING ONLY INDICATING 0.29 INCHES
OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED FOR EARLY MAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THIS HIGH TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT WELL TODAY DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT.

THE WEEKEND AND WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING EACH DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10-12 KNOTS...WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO
19KTS...ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE NORTH LATE NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN BOUNDARY WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED AND LOW SURFACE
MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE LIGHT AND VERY LOCALIZED TO
SHELTERED AREAS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     44  76  49  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  77  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  48  77  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  47  77  51  82  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      49  77  53  81  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  76  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  48  79  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        46  79  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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