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000
FXUS64 KHUN 011159 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
659 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
LITTLE BIT OF A QUIETER NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THIS POINT LAST NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST IS MAINLY IN CONTROL
OF WX CONDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS ACROSS NRN TN. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME
FAIRLY MILD/SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TREND IS
XPCTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WELL ADVERTISED WEAK FRONT COLD TO
THE NW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SEWD. IN ADDITION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AND TRANSLATE INTO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN H7-H5...THE THREAT FOR BOWING
SEGMENTS WITHIN MULTICELL CLUSTERS CERTAINLY LOOKS REASONABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS. THERMO PROFILES SUGGEST BRIEF
CONVECTIVE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MIXING TO THE SFC WITHIN THESE BOWING
SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH
IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY ALSO RESULT IN A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT...PENDING THE INTENSITY/NUMBER OF UPPER WAVES
THAT MOVE OVER THE CNTRL TN VALLEY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS XPCTED IN THE OVERALL WX FORECAST/PATTERN HEADING
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CAT...AS ADDITIONAL FRONTS AT THE SFC COUPLED WITH
UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NW.
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE INSTANCES OF MORE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS FORECAST
UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO CARRY INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MODEL SUITES HINTING AT ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONT STALLING
JUST TO THE N OF THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE SE REGION BECOMES A BIT MORE W TO E...WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN
WEAKENING A BIT. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE IN MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING EWD ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH PREDOM ACTIVE/WET WX XPCTED
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY EVENING. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE THEN SUGGESTING PERHAPS A TEMPO REPRIEVE IN THE RAINFALL
AROUND THE LATE SUN/MON TIME FRAME...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE N SWD THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A TSTRM CMPLX MOVG SE ACROSS MO WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AM. TIMING FROM VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX WILL IMPACT THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS AND VIS/CIG
REDUCTIONS PSBL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LATE AM AND EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND IN THE OVERNIGHT...AS
ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN TIMING DIFF BTWN
MODELS...DID ONLY TEMPO FOR TSTM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY PM.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011159 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
659 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
LITTLE BIT OF A QUIETER NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THIS POINT LAST NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST IS MAINLY IN CONTROL
OF WX CONDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS ACROSS NRN TN. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME
FAIRLY MILD/SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TREND IS
XPCTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WELL ADVERTISED WEAK FRONT COLD TO
THE NW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SEWD. IN ADDITION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AND TRANSLATE INTO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN H7-H5...THE THREAT FOR BOWING
SEGMENTS WITHIN MULTICELL CLUSTERS CERTAINLY LOOKS REASONABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS. THERMO PROFILES SUGGEST BRIEF
CONVECTIVE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MIXING TO THE SFC WITHIN THESE BOWING
SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH
IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY ALSO RESULT IN A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT...PENDING THE INTENSITY/NUMBER OF UPPER WAVES
THAT MOVE OVER THE CNTRL TN VALLEY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS XPCTED IN THE OVERALL WX FORECAST/PATTERN HEADING
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CAT...AS ADDITIONAL FRONTS AT THE SFC COUPLED WITH
UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NW.
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE INSTANCES OF MORE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS FORECAST
UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO CARRY INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MODEL SUITES HINTING AT ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONT STALLING
JUST TO THE N OF THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE SE REGION BECOMES A BIT MORE W TO E...WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN
WEAKENING A BIT. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE IN MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING EWD ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH PREDOM ACTIVE/WET WX XPCTED
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY EVENING. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE THEN SUGGESTING PERHAPS A TEMPO REPRIEVE IN THE RAINFALL
AROUND THE LATE SUN/MON TIME FRAME...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE N SWD THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A TSTRM CMPLX MOVG SE ACROSS MO WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AM. TIMING FROM VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX WILL IMPACT THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS AND VIS/CIG
REDUCTIONS PSBL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LATE AM AND EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND IN THE OVERNIGHT...AS
ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN TIMING DIFF BTWN
MODELS...DID ONLY TEMPO FOR TSTM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY PM.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 011153
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE WAVES
MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN
HIGH.  THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
AN MCV DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE
REGION. NOT TO MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS AND NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE
MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL
OF THESE FACTORS HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE HWO FOR NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF
MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN
THE HWO AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE ONLY IMPACT TO TAF SITES SHOULD
BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT WILL HANG AROUND AT THE NORTHERN
SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
SCENARIO IS LOW AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO
INCLUDE VCTS FARTHER SOUTH AT KMGM AND KTOI...THOUGH THE OVERALL
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TO THESE SITES IS A BIT LOWER THAN FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011153
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE WAVES
MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN
HIGH.  THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
AN MCV DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE
REGION. NOT TO MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS AND NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE
MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL
OF THESE FACTORS HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE HWO FOR NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF
MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN
THE HWO AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE ONLY IMPACT TO TAF SITES SHOULD
BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT WILL HANG AROUND AT THE NORTHERN
SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
SCENARIO IS LOW AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO
INCLUDE VCTS FARTHER SOUTH AT KMGM AND KTOI...THOUGH THE OVERALL
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TO THESE SITES IS A BIT LOWER THAN FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011025
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
525 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE BIT OF A QUIETER NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THIS POINT LAST NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST IS MAINLY IN CONTROL
OF WX CONDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS ACROSS NRN TN. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME
FAIRLY MILD/SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TREND IS
XPCTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WELL ADVERTISED WEAK FRONT COLD TO
THE NW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SEWD. IN ADDITION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AND TRANSLATE INTO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN H7-H5...THE THREAT FOR BOWING
SEGMENTS WITHIN MULTICELL CLUSTERS CERTAINLY LOOKS REASONABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS. THERMO PROFILES SUGGEST BRIEF
CONVECTIVE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MIXING TO THE SFC WITHIN THESE BOWING
SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH
IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY ALSO RESULT IN A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT...PENDING THE INTENSITY/NUMBER OF UPPER WAVES
THAT MOVE OVER THE CNTRL TN VALLEY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS XPCTED IN THE OVERALL WX FORECAST/PATTERN HEADING
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CAT...AS ADDITIONAL FRONTS AT THE SFC COUPLED WITH
UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NW.
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE INSTANCES OF MORE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS FORECAST
UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO CARRY INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MODEL SUITES HINTING AT ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONT STALLING
JUST TO THE N OF THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE SE REGION BECOMES A BIT MORE W TO E...WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN
WEAKENING A BIT. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE IN MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING EWD ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH PREDOM ACTIVE/WET WX XPCTED
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY EVENING. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE THEN SUGGESTING PERHAPS A TEMPO REPRIEVE IN THE RAINFALL
AROUND THE LATE SUN/MON TIME FRAME...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE N SWD THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1244 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10-11Z TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FEW/SCT CLOUD DECK A0A 2KFT DEVELOPING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME HAZE/PATCHY FOG. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 14-15Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF VCSH/TSRA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  71  87  71 /  70  60  60  60
SHOALS        86  71  89  71 /  70  60  60  60
VINEMONT      85  70  85  69 /  70  60  60  50
FAYETTEVILLE  83  68  82  68 /  70  60  60  60
ALBERTVILLE   82  69  84  69 /  70  60  60  50
FORT PAYNE    84  68  83  68 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 010949
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
449 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF MS..AL AND WESTERN GA THROUGH
TONIGHT. TO THE NORTHWEST LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THAT TRACKS MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FOR TODAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY LESS
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH LESS
MECHANICAL FORCING AND SHEAR DUE MOSTLY TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
TROF THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY FORMING ALONG A
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON
SHIFTING WELL INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON AFFECTING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NEARS
FROM THE NORTHWEST ENHANCING THE LIFT MOSTLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME FRAME
THOUGH WITH LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECS AND ADJUST
DOWN FOR EXTRA CLOUDS AND CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT]...A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ON THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE. RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE STRETCH WESTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH A CONTINUED MOIST DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2 INCHES AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG TO AID IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE HAS BEEN DRAWN OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA IN THE VICINITY OF RICHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS RATHER MINIMAL THURSDAY
AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS INDICATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DIMINISHING
THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT MENTION OF
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN MID
LEVEL TROUGH. SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE
PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO LOWER 90S...AND AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 70S. /21

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE
MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
INCREASED MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH AND BECOME ISOLATED
AT BEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS LOOKING RATHER
MOIST COURTESY OF PINCHING OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST...EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
AND SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
01.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND AS MAIN UPPER TROF TO THE NORTH AND EAST CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BETTER WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
FORMING EACH DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALSO. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  72  91  75  92 /  40  30  30  10  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  76  93 /  40  30  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  79  90  78  90 /  30  30  40  20  20
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  73  94 /  30  30  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  89  71  93  71  93 /  40  40  30  20  20
CAMDEN      89  72  92  72  93 /  40  40  40  20  30
CRESTVIEW   91  70  93  72  94 /  30  30  40  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010949
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
449 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF MS..AL AND WESTERN GA THROUGH
TONIGHT. TO THE NORTHWEST LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THAT TRACKS MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FOR TODAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY LESS
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH LESS
MECHANICAL FORCING AND SHEAR DUE MOSTLY TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
TROF THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY FORMING ALONG A
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON
SHIFTING WELL INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON AFFECTING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NEARS
FROM THE NORTHWEST ENHANCING THE LIFT MOSTLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME FRAME
THOUGH WITH LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECS AND ADJUST
DOWN FOR EXTRA CLOUDS AND CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT]...A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ON THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE. RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE STRETCH WESTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH A CONTINUED MOIST DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2 INCHES AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG TO AID IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE HAS BEEN DRAWN OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA IN THE VICINITY OF RICHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS RATHER MINIMAL THURSDAY
AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS INDICATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DIMINISHING
THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT MENTION OF
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN MID
LEVEL TROUGH. SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE
PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO LOWER 90S...AND AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 70S. /21

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE
MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
INCREASED MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH AND BECOME ISOLATED
AT BEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS LOOKING RATHER
MOIST COURTESY OF PINCHING OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST...EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
AND SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
01.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND AS MAIN UPPER TROF TO THE NORTH AND EAST CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BETTER WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
FORMING EACH DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALSO. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  72  91  75  92 /  40  30  30  10  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  76  93 /  40  30  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  79  90  78  90 /  30  30  40  20  20
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  73  94 /  30  30  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  89  71  93  71  93 /  40  40  30  20  20
CAMDEN      89  72  92  72  93 /  40  40  40  20  30
CRESTVIEW   91  70  93  72  94 /  30  30  40  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010949
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
449 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF MS..AL AND WESTERN GA THROUGH
TONIGHT. TO THE NORTHWEST LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THAT TRACKS MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FOR TODAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY LESS
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH LESS
MECHANICAL FORCING AND SHEAR DUE MOSTLY TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
TROF THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY FORMING ALONG A
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON
SHIFTING WELL INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON AFFECTING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NEARS
FROM THE NORTHWEST ENHANCING THE LIFT MOSTLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME FRAME
THOUGH WITH LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECS AND ADJUST
DOWN FOR EXTRA CLOUDS AND CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT]...A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ON THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE. RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE STRETCH WESTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH A CONTINUED MOIST DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2 INCHES AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG TO AID IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE HAS BEEN DRAWN OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA IN THE VICINITY OF RICHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS RATHER MINIMAL THURSDAY
AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS INDICATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DIMINISHING
THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT MENTION OF
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN MID
LEVEL TROUGH. SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE
PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO LOWER 90S...AND AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 70S. /21

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE
MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
INCREASED MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH AND BECOME ISOLATED
AT BEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS LOOKING RATHER
MOIST COURTESY OF PINCHING OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST...EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
AND SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
01.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND AS MAIN UPPER TROF TO THE NORTH AND EAST CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BETTER WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
FORMING EACH DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALSO. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  72  91  75  92 /  40  30  30  10  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  76  93 /  40  30  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  79  90  78  90 /  30  30  40  20  20
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  73  94 /  30  30  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  89  71  93  71  93 /  40  40  30  20  20
CAMDEN      89  72  92  72  93 /  40  40  40  20  30
CRESTVIEW   91  70  93  72  94 /  30  30  40  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010949
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
449 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF MS..AL AND WESTERN GA THROUGH
TONIGHT. TO THE NORTHWEST LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THAT TRACKS MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FOR TODAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY LESS
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH LESS
MECHANICAL FORCING AND SHEAR DUE MOSTLY TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
TROF THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY FORMING ALONG A
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON
SHIFTING WELL INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON AFFECTING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NEARS
FROM THE NORTHWEST ENHANCING THE LIFT MOSTLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME FRAME
THOUGH WITH LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECS AND ADJUST
DOWN FOR EXTRA CLOUDS AND CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT]...A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ON THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE. RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE STRETCH WESTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH A CONTINUED MOIST DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2 INCHES AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG TO AID IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE HAS BEEN DRAWN OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA IN THE VICINITY OF RICHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS RATHER MINIMAL THURSDAY
AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS INDICATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DIMINISHING
THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT MENTION OF
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN MID
LEVEL TROUGH. SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE
PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO LOWER 90S...AND AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 70S. /21

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE
MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
INCREASED MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH AND BECOME ISOLATED
AT BEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS LOOKING RATHER
MOIST COURTESY OF PINCHING OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST...EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
AND SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
01.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND AS MAIN UPPER TROF TO THE NORTH AND EAST CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BETTER WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
FORMING EACH DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALSO. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  72  91  75  92 /  40  30  30  10  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  76  93 /  40  30  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  79  90  78  90 /  30  30  40  20  20
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  73  94 /  30  30  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  89  71  93  71  93 /  40  40  30  20  20
CAMDEN      89  72  92  72  93 /  40  40  40  20  30
CRESTVIEW   91  70  93  72  94 /  30  30  40  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010912 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE
WAVES MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN HIGH.
THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA
FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF AN MCV
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTREMELY
COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE REGION. NOT TO
MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND
NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE MOVING NE INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL OF THESE FACTORS
HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY PARTICULAR
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO FOR
NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF MORE
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE HWO
AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    85  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  73  87  73  88 /  70  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  88  72  88  72  91 /  70  50  60  40  40
CALERA      86  72  87  73  89 /  60  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  89  73  89  72  92 /  50  50  60  30  30
TROY        89  73  89  72  91 /  50  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010912 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE
WAVES MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN HIGH.
THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA
FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF AN MCV
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTREMELY
COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE REGION. NOT TO
MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND
NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE MOVING NE INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL OF THESE FACTORS
HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY PARTICULAR
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO FOR
NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF MORE
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE HWO
AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    85  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  73  87  73  88 /  70  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  88  72  88  72  91 /  70  50  60  40  40
CALERA      86  72  87  73  89 /  60  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  89  73  89  72  92 /  50  50  60  30  30
TROY        89  73  89  72  91 /  50  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 010912 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE
WAVES MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN HIGH.
THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA
FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF AN MCV
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTREMELY
COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE REGION. NOT TO
MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND
NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE MOVING NE INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL OF THESE FACTORS
HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY PARTICULAR
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO FOR
NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF MORE
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE HWO
AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    85  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  73  87  73  88 /  70  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  88  72  88  72  91 /  70  50  60  40  40
CALERA      86  72  87  73  89 /  60  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  89  73  89  72  92 /  50  50  60  30  30
TROY        89  73  89  72  91 /  50  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010912 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE
WAVES MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN HIGH.
THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA
FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF AN MCV
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTREMELY
COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE REGION. NOT TO
MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND
NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE MOVING NE INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL OF THESE FACTORS
HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY PARTICULAR
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO FOR
NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF MORE
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE HWO
AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    85  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  73  87  73  88 /  70  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  88  72  88  72  91 /  70  50  60  40  40
CALERA      86  72  87  73  89 /  60  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  89  73  89  72  92 /  50  50  60  30  30
TROY        89  73  89  72  91 /  50  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 010858
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE MAY HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE
WAVES MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES...SO STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS
ARE A DEFINITELY POSSIBILITY WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL
TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME
HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN HIGH. THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY
BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION.
ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF AN MCV DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTREMELY COMMON WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE REGION. NOT TO MENTION THE FACT
THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF
TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL OF THESE FACTORS HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME
FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    85  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  73  87  73  88 /  70  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  88  72  88  72  91 /  70  50  60  40  40
CALERA      86  72  87  73  89 /  60  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  89  73  89  72  92 /  50  50  60  30  30
TROY        89  73  89  72  91 /  50  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010858
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE MAY HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE
WAVES MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES...SO STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS
ARE A DEFINITELY POSSIBILITY WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL
TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME
HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN HIGH. THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY
BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION.
ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF AN MCV DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTREMELY COMMON WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE REGION. NOT TO MENTION THE FACT
THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF
TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL OF THESE FACTORS HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME
FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    85  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  86  73  87  73  88 /  70  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  88  72  88  72  91 /  70  50  60  40  40
CALERA      86  72  87  73  89 /  60  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  89  73  89  72  92 /  50  50  60  30  30
TROY        89  73  89  72  91 /  50  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010544 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1244 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 841 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN MONDAY AND VALUES
RUNNING ABOUT 5-6 BELOW YESTERDAY AT 01Z. WE REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE SMOKE STREAM INTO THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TO THIS...CLOUDS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEAR SUNRISE PER LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.
THUS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE PLUME OF SMOKE AND INCOMING
CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP US UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/HAZY SKIES TONIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO SUGGEST THAT A FEW WEAK
BOUNDARIES EXIST AROUND THE REGION AND THESE COULD ALLOW FOR A VERY
ISOLATED STORM TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE ANY STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE AS THE SHORTWAVE
IN MID-WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10-11Z TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FEW/SCT CLOUD DECK A0A 2KFT DEVELOPING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME HAZE/PATCHY FOG. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 14-15Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF VCSH/TSRA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010544 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1244 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 841 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN MONDAY AND VALUES
RUNNING ABOUT 5-6 BELOW YESTERDAY AT 01Z. WE REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE SMOKE STREAM INTO THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TO THIS...CLOUDS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEAR SUNRISE PER LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.
THUS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE PLUME OF SMOKE AND INCOMING
CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP US UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/HAZY SKIES TONIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO SUGGEST THAT A FEW WEAK
BOUNDARIES EXIST AROUND THE REGION AND THESE COULD ALLOW FOR A VERY
ISOLATED STORM TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE ANY STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE AS THE SHORTWAVE
IN MID-WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10-11Z TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FEW/SCT CLOUD DECK A0A 2KFT DEVELOPING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME HAZE/PATCHY FOG. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 14-15Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF VCSH/TSRA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010455 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
01.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS AND BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ADDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...DECREASED POPS OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE, UPSTREAM COLD
POOL DID NOT SUFFICIENTLY DEVELOP AND CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA DESPITE INSTABILITY RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND AND GREATLY REDUCED TSTM/SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT
SUSPECT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SPARSE TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. /08 JW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...KEPT SCATTERED TSTMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM THOMASVILLE, AL...SOUTH TO ORANGE BEACH, AL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST...AFTER MIDNIGHT TSTMS AND SHOWERS BECOME
SCATTERED EAST OF THAT LINE AND ISOLATED WEST. ROBUST MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH UPSTREAM PROPAGATING EASTWARD IN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH HAS TAPPED INTO THE LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HAS CREATED
TWO LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER SOUTHERN, LA AND THE OTHER
NORTH OF HWY 84 ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE ONE TO THE NORTH
LOOKS MOST IMPRESSIVE AS RADAR INDICATES AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT AND THE GUST FRONT PROPAGATING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD ARE CWA. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP
INSTABILITY RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE AL/MS
BORDER (ML CAPE 2500 J/KG...SFC TEMPS LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS 70S)
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BORDER. RAP13 AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO
DEPICT THIS INSTABILITY (THOUGH HRRR IS A LOT WEAKER WITH IT 500 TO
1000 J/KG) AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATE IT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG ITS AXIS. TAILORED CURRENT FORECAST TO
FOLLOW THIS TREND. /08 JW

AVIATION UPDATE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSTMS
TONIGHT. ALSO CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...INTERESTING AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY STORMS OVER THE
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY RACED SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE WERE COMMON. SOME MINOR
WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BALDWIN
COUNTY...PRIMARILY TREES AND POWER LINES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...NOW REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ONLY THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND AREA BAYS...AS WELL AS GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM. WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WELL OFFSHORE...WE WILL BE
CANCELING THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WATCH BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
FCST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. FOR THE EVENING...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WILL ADVERTISE FOR A CHANCE OF FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WITH LACK OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THESE LATE NIGHT
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE ONES THIS AFTERNOON
WERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S DOWN ALONG THE
COAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION...BUT A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM NE-
SW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY ACT AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH
THIS FOCUS...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT (WHAT LITTLE THERE WAS) MOVING
EAST AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE
TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS INTENSE AS THOSE OF TODAY
EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ALL
LOCATIONS. 12/DS

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. STICKING WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND...HOVERING
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AS THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS CONTINUES TO BROADEN OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND
MORE SEASONAL WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
FOR NOW...EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND SUNSET
ON THE HOLIDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THAT EVENING.

NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE GRIPS THE REGION. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TRENDING
WARMER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND COASTLINE.
07/MB

&&

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  90  74  91  75 /  20  50  20  30  10
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  90  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  78  89  79 /  20  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  91  72 /  20  40  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  72  92  71 /  20  50  30  30  10
CAMDEN      72  90  72  90  72 /  20  40  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   74  91  72  92  73 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 010455 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
01.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS AND BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ADDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...DECREASED POPS OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE, UPSTREAM COLD
POOL DID NOT SUFFICIENTLY DEVELOP AND CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA DESPITE INSTABILITY RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND AND GREATLY REDUCED TSTM/SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT
SUSPECT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SPARSE TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. /08 JW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...KEPT SCATTERED TSTMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM THOMASVILLE, AL...SOUTH TO ORANGE BEACH, AL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST...AFTER MIDNIGHT TSTMS AND SHOWERS BECOME
SCATTERED EAST OF THAT LINE AND ISOLATED WEST. ROBUST MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH UPSTREAM PROPAGATING EASTWARD IN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH HAS TAPPED INTO THE LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HAS CREATED
TWO LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER SOUTHERN, LA AND THE OTHER
NORTH OF HWY 84 ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE ONE TO THE NORTH
LOOKS MOST IMPRESSIVE AS RADAR INDICATES AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT AND THE GUST FRONT PROPAGATING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD ARE CWA. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP
INSTABILITY RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE AL/MS
BORDER (ML CAPE 2500 J/KG...SFC TEMPS LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS 70S)
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BORDER. RAP13 AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO
DEPICT THIS INSTABILITY (THOUGH HRRR IS A LOT WEAKER WITH IT 500 TO
1000 J/KG) AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATE IT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG ITS AXIS. TAILORED CURRENT FORECAST TO
FOLLOW THIS TREND. /08 JW

AVIATION UPDATE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSTMS
TONIGHT. ALSO CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...INTERESTING AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY STORMS OVER THE
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY RACED SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE WERE COMMON. SOME MINOR
WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BALDWIN
COUNTY...PRIMARILY TREES AND POWER LINES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...NOW REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ONLY THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND AREA BAYS...AS WELL AS GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM. WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WELL OFFSHORE...WE WILL BE
CANCELING THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WATCH BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
FCST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. FOR THE EVENING...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WILL ADVERTISE FOR A CHANCE OF FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WITH LACK OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THESE LATE NIGHT
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE ONES THIS AFTERNOON
WERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S DOWN ALONG THE
COAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION...BUT A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM NE-
SW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY ACT AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH
THIS FOCUS...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT (WHAT LITTLE THERE WAS) MOVING
EAST AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE
TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS INTENSE AS THOSE OF TODAY
EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ALL
LOCATIONS. 12/DS

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. STICKING WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND...HOVERING
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

&&

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AS THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS CONTINUES TO BROADEN OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND
MORE SEASONAL WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
FOR NOW...EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND SUNSET
ON THE HOLIDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THAT EVENING.

NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE GRIPS THE REGION. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TRENDING
WARMER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND COASTLINE.
07/MB

&&

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  90  74  91  75 /  20  50  20  30  10
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  90  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  78  89  79 /  20  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  91  72 /  20  40  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  72  92  71 /  20  50  30  30  10
CAMDEN      72  90  72  90  72 /  20  40  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   74  91  72  92  73 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY SANK SOUTHWARD EARLIER OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ENHANCED SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
1/3 COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED REASONABLE BUT UNDER SEVERE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE FOR
THE MOST PART...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS THE EFFECTS FROM THAT EARLIER BOUNDARY
INTERACTION LESSEN. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST WHERE THE DEW
POINTS WERE RUNNING LOWER.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010306 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY SANK SOUTHWARD EARLIER OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ENHANCED SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
1/3 COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED REASONABLE BUT UNDER SEVERE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE FOR
THE MOST PART...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS THE EFFECTS FROM THAT EARLIER BOUNDARY
INTERACTION LESSEN. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST WHERE THE DEW
POINTS WERE RUNNING LOWER.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  70  86  70 /  20  60  60  70  60
ANNISTON    66  87  70  86  71 /  20  60  60  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  70  88  72  88  72 /  20  60  60  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  73  91  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
CALERA      69  88  71  87  72 /  30  60  50  60  40
AUBURN      68  87  70  88  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  73 /  60  40  40  50  30
TROY        69  91  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/16



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010306 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY SANK SOUTHWARD EARLIER OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ENHANCED SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
1/3 COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED REASONABLE BUT UNDER SEVERE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE FOR
THE MOST PART...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS THE EFFECTS FROM THAT EARLIER BOUNDARY
INTERACTION LESSEN. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST WHERE THE DEW
POINTS WERE RUNNING LOWER.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  70  86  70 /  20  60  60  70  60
ANNISTON    66  87  70  86  71 /  20  60  60  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  70  88  72  88  72 /  20  60  60  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  73  91  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
CALERA      69  88  71  87  72 /  30  60  50  60  40
AUBURN      68  87  70  88  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  73 /  60  40  40  50  30
TROY        69  91  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/16



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010306 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY SANK SOUTHWARD EARLIER OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ENHANCED SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
1/3 COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED REASONABLE BUT UNDER SEVERE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE FOR
THE MOST PART...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS THE EFFECTS FROM THAT EARLIER BOUNDARY
INTERACTION LESSEN. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST WHERE THE DEW
POINTS WERE RUNNING LOWER.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  70  86  70 /  20  60  60  70  60
ANNISTON    66  87  70  86  71 /  20  60  60  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  70  88  72  88  72 /  20  60  60  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  73  91  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
CALERA      69  88  71  87  72 /  30  60  50  60  40
AUBURN      68  87  70  88  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  73 /  60  40  40  50  30
TROY        69  91  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/16




000
FXUS64 KBMX 010306 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY SANK SOUTHWARD EARLIER OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ENHANCED SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
1/3 COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED REASONABLE BUT UNDER SEVERE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE FOR
THE MOST PART...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS THE EFFECTS FROM THAT EARLIER BOUNDARY
INTERACTION LESSEN. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST WHERE THE DEW
POINTS WERE RUNNING LOWER.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  70  86  70 /  20  60  60  70  60
ANNISTON    66  87  70  86  71 /  20  60  60  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  70  88  72  88  72 /  20  60  60  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  73  91  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
CALERA      69  88  71  87  72 /  30  60  50  60  40
AUBURN      68  87  70  88  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  73 /  60  40  40  50  30
TROY        69  91  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 010148
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
848 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...DECREASED POPS OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE, UPSTREAM COLD
POOL DID NOT SUFFICIENTLY DEVELOP AND CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA DESPITE INSTABILITY RIDGE. MESOCALE MODELS HAVE
ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND AND GREATLY REDUCED TSTM/SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT
SUSPECT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SPARSE TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. /08 JW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...KEPT SCATTERED TSTMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM THOMASVILLE, AL...SOUTH TO ORANGE BEACH, AL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST...AFTER MIDNIGHT TSTMS AND SHOWERS BECOME
SCATTERED EAST OF THAT LINE AND ISOLATED WEST. ROBUST MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH UPSTREAM PROPAGATING EASTWARD IN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH HAS TAPPED INTO THE LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HAS CREATED
TWO LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER SOUTHERN, LA AND THE OTHER
NORTH OF HWY 84 ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE ONE TO THE NORTH
LOOKS MOST IMPRESSIVE AS RADAR INDICATES AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT AND THE GUST FRONT PROPAGATING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD ARE CWA. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP
INSTABILITY RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE AL/MS
BORDER (ML CAPE 2500 J/KG...SFC TEMPS LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS 70S)
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BORDER. RAP13 AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO
DEPICT THIS INSTABILITY (THOUGH HRRR IS A LOT WEAKER WITH IT 500 TO
1000 J/KG) AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATE IT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG ITS AXIS. TAILORED CURRENT FORECAST TO
FOLLOW THIS TREND. /08 JW

AVIATION UPDATE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSTMS
TONIGHT. ALSO CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...INTERESTING AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY STORMS OVER THE
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY RACED SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE WERE COMMON. SOME MINOR
WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BALDWIN
COUNTY...PRIMARILY TREES AND POWER LINES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...NOW REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ONLY THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND AREA BAYS...AS WELL AS GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM. WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WELL OFFSHORE...WE WILL BE
CANCELLING THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WATCH BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
FCST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. FOR THE EVENING...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WILL ADVERTISE FOR A CHANCE OF FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WITH LACK OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THESE LATE NIGHT
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE ONES THIS AFTERNOON
WERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S DOWN ALONG THE
COAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION...BUT A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM NE-
SW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY ACT AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH
THIS FOCUS...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT (WHAT LITTLE THERE WAS) MOVING
EAST AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE
TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS INTENSE AS THOSE OF TODAY
EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ALL
LOCATIONS. 12/DS

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. STICKING WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND...HOVERING
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AS THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS CONTINUES TO BROADEN OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND
MORE SEASONAL WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
FOR NOW...EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND SUNSET
ON THE HOLIDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THAT EVENING.

NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE GRIPS THE REGION. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TRENDING
WARMER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND COASTLINE.
07/MB

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...BASED ON CONVECTION ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTH WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOR IFR CONDITIONS
IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHERWISE VFR/VCSH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  90  74  91  75 /  20  50  20  30  10
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  90  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  78  89  79 /  20  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  91  72 /  20  40  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  72  92  71 /  20  50  30  30  10
CAMDEN      72  90  72  90  72 /  20  40  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   74  91  72  92  73 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 010148
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
848 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...DECREASED POPS OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE, UPSTREAM COLD
POOL DID NOT SUFFICIENTLY DEVELOP AND CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA DESPITE INSTABILITY RIDGE. MESOCALE MODELS HAVE
ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND AND GREATLY REDUCED TSTM/SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT
SUSPECT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SPARSE TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. /08 JW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...KEPT SCATTERED TSTMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM THOMASVILLE, AL...SOUTH TO ORANGE BEACH, AL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST...AFTER MIDNIGHT TSTMS AND SHOWERS BECOME
SCATTERED EAST OF THAT LINE AND ISOLATED WEST. ROBUST MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH UPSTREAM PROPAGATING EASTWARD IN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH HAS TAPPED INTO THE LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HAS CREATED
TWO LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER SOUTHERN, LA AND THE OTHER
NORTH OF HWY 84 ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE ONE TO THE NORTH
LOOKS MOST IMPRESSIVE AS RADAR INDICATES AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT AND THE GUST FRONT PROPAGATING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD ARE CWA. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP
INSTABILITY RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE AL/MS
BORDER (ML CAPE 2500 J/KG...SFC TEMPS LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS 70S)
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BORDER. RAP13 AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO
DEPICT THIS INSTABILITY (THOUGH HRRR IS A LOT WEAKER WITH IT 500 TO
1000 J/KG) AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATE IT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG ITS AXIS. TAILORED CURRENT FORECAST TO
FOLLOW THIS TREND. /08 JW

AVIATION UPDATE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSTMS
TONIGHT. ALSO CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...INTERESTING AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY STORMS OVER THE
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY RACED SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE WERE COMMON. SOME MINOR
WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BALDWIN
COUNTY...PRIMARILY TREES AND POWER LINES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...NOW REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ONLY THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND AREA BAYS...AS WELL AS GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM. WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WELL OFFSHORE...WE WILL BE
CANCELLING THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WATCH BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
FCST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. FOR THE EVENING...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WILL ADVERTISE FOR A CHANCE OF FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WITH LACK OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THESE LATE NIGHT
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE ONES THIS AFTERNOON
WERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S DOWN ALONG THE
COAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION...BUT A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM NE-
SW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY ACT AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH
THIS FOCUS...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT (WHAT LITTLE THERE WAS) MOVING
EAST AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE
TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS INTENSE AS THOSE OF TODAY
EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ALL
LOCATIONS. 12/DS

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. STICKING WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND...HOVERING
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AS THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS CONTINUES TO BROADEN OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND
MORE SEASONAL WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
FOR NOW...EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND SUNSET
ON THE HOLIDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THAT EVENING.

NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE GRIPS THE REGION. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TRENDING
WARMER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND COASTLINE.
07/MB

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...BASED ON CONVECTION ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTH WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOR IFR CONDITIONS
IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHERWISE VFR/VCSH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  90  74  91  75 /  20  50  20  30  10
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  90  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  78  89  79 /  20  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  91  72 /  20  40  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  72  92  71 /  20  50  30  30  10
CAMDEN      72  90  72  90  72 /  20  40  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   74  91  72  92  73 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 010141
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
841 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN MONDAY AND VALUES
RUNNING ABOUT 5-6 BELOW YESTERDAY AT 01Z. WE REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE SMOKE STREAM INTO THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TO THIS...CLOUDS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEAR SUNRISE PER LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.
THUS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE PLUME OF SMOKE AND INCOMING
CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP US UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/HAZY SKIES TONIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO SUGGEST THAT A FEW WEAK
BOUNDARIES EXIST AROUND THE REGION AND THESE COULD ALLOW FOR A VERY
ISOLATED STORM TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE ANY STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE AS THE SHORTWAVE
IN MID-WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
TERMINALS UNTIL 14Z. WILL INTRODUCE A TEMPO 4SM TSRA BKN030CB
GROUPING FROM 16Z-19Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL. EXPECT A CONTINUING VCTS
TO TEMPO 4SM TSRA BKN030CB GROUPING AT BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 010141
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
841 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN MONDAY AND VALUES
RUNNING ABOUT 5-6 BELOW YESTERDAY AT 01Z. WE REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE SMOKE STREAM INTO THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TO THIS...CLOUDS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEAR SUNRISE PER LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.
THUS...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE PLUME OF SMOKE AND INCOMING
CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP US UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/HAZY SKIES TONIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO SUGGEST THAT A FEW WEAK
BOUNDARIES EXIST AROUND THE REGION AND THESE COULD ALLOW FOR A VERY
ISOLATED STORM TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE ANY STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE AS THE SHORTWAVE
IN MID-WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
TERMINALS UNTIL 14Z. WILL INTRODUCE A TEMPO 4SM TSRA BKN030CB
GROUPING FROM 16Z-19Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL. EXPECT A CONTINUING VCTS
TO TEMPO 4SM TSRA BKN030CB GROUPING AT BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 010034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
734 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...KEPT SCATTERED TSTMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM THOMASVILLE, AL...SOUTH TO ORANGE BEACH, AL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST...AFTER MIDNIGHT TSTMS AND SHOWERS BECOME
SCATTERED EAST OF THAT LINE AND ISOLATED WEST. ROBUST MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH UPSTREAM PROPAGATING EASTWARD IN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH HAS TAPPED INTO THE LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HAS CREATED
TWO LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER SOUTHERN, LA AND THE OTHER
NORTH OF HWY 84 ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE ONE TO THE NORTH
LOOKS MOST IMPRESSIVE AS RADAR INDICATES AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT AND THE GUST FRONT PROPAGATING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD ARE CWA. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP
INSTABILITY RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE AL/MS
BORDER (ML CAPE 2500 J/KG...SFC TEMPS LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS 70S)
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BORDER. RAP13 AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO
DEPICT THIS INSTABILITY (THOUGH HRRR IS A LOT WEAKER WITH IT 500 TO
1000 J/KG) AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATE IT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG ITS AXIS. TAILORED CURRENT FORECAST TO
FOLLOW THIS TREND. /08 JW

.AVIATION UPDATE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSTMS
TONIGHT. ALSO CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNIGHT IN AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...INTERESTING AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY STORMS OVER THE
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY RACED SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE WERE COMMON. SOME MINOR
WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BALDWIN
COUNTY...PRIMARILY TREES AND POWER LINES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...NOW REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ONLY THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND AREA BAYS...AS WELL AS GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM. WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WELL OFFSHORE...WE WILL BE
CANCELLING THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WATCH BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
FCST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. FOR THE EVENING...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WILL ADVERTISE FOR A CHANCE OF FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WITH LACK OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THESE LATE NIGHT
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE ONES THIS AFTERNOON
WERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S DOWN ALONG THE
COAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION...BUT A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM NE-
SW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY ACT AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH
THIS FOCUS...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT (WHAT LITTLE THERE WAS) MOVING
EAST AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE
TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS INTENSE AS THOSE OF TODAY
EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ALL
LOCATIONS. 12/DS

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. STICKING WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND...HOVERING
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AS THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS CONTINUES TO BROADEN OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND
MORE SEASONAL WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
FOR NOW...EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND SUNSET
ON THE HOLIDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THAT EVENING.

NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE GRIPS THE REGION. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TRENDING
WARMER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND COASTLINE.
07/MB

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...BASED ON CONVECTION ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTH WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOR IFR CONDITIONS
IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHERWISE VFR/VCSH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  90  74  91  75 /  30  50  20  30  10
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  90  77 /  40  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  78  89  79 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  91  72 /  40  40  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  72  92  71 /  40  50  30  30  10
CAMDEN      72  90  72  90  72 /  40  40  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   74  91  72  92  73 /  30  30  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
734 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...KEPT SCATTERED TSTMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM THOMASVILLE, AL...SOUTH TO ORANGE BEACH, AL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST...AFTER MIDNIGHT TSTMS AND SHOWERS BECOME
SCATTERED EAST OF THAT LINE AND ISOLATED WEST. ROBUST MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH UPSTREAM PROPAGATING EASTWARD IN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH HAS TAPPED INTO THE LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HAS CREATED
TWO LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER SOUTHERN, LA AND THE OTHER
NORTH OF HWY 84 ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE ONE TO THE NORTH
LOOKS MOST IMPRESSIVE AS RADAR INDICATES AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT AND THE GUST FRONT PROPAGATING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD ARE CWA. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP
INSTABILITY RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE AL/MS
BORDER (ML CAPE 2500 J/KG...SFC TEMPS LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS 70S)
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BORDER. RAP13 AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO
DEPICT THIS INSTABILITY (THOUGH HRRR IS A LOT WEAKER WITH IT 500 TO
1000 J/KG) AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATE IT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG ITS AXIS. TAILORED CURRENT FORECAST TO
FOLLOW THIS TREND. /08 JW

.AVIATION UPDATE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSTMS
TONIGHT. ALSO CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNIGHT IN AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...INTERESTING AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY STORMS OVER THE
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY RACED SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE WERE COMMON. SOME MINOR
WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BALDWIN
COUNTY...PRIMARILY TREES AND POWER LINES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...NOW REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ONLY THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND AREA BAYS...AS WELL AS GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM. WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WELL OFFSHORE...WE WILL BE
CANCELLING THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WATCH BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
FCST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. FOR THE EVENING...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WILL ADVERTISE FOR A CHANCE OF FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WITH LACK OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THESE LATE NIGHT
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE ONES THIS AFTERNOON
WERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S DOWN ALONG THE
COAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION...BUT A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM NE-
SW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY ACT AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH
THIS FOCUS...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT (WHAT LITTLE THERE WAS) MOVING
EAST AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE
TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS INTENSE AS THOSE OF TODAY
EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ALL
LOCATIONS. 12/DS

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. STICKING WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND...HOVERING
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AS THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS CONTINUES TO BROADEN OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND
MORE SEASONAL WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
FOR NOW...EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND SUNSET
ON THE HOLIDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THAT EVENING.

NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE GRIPS THE REGION. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TRENDING
WARMER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND COASTLINE.
07/MB

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...BASED ON CONVECTION ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTH WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOR IFR CONDITIONS
IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHERWISE VFR/VCSH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  90  74  91  75 /  30  50  20  30  10
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  90  77 /  40  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  78  89  79 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  91  72 /  40  40  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  72  92  71 /  40  50  30  30  10
CAMDEN      72  90  72  90  72 /  40  40  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   74  91  72  92  73 /  30  30  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 302359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
659 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 302359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
659 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 302359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
659 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 302359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
659 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 302359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
659 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 302359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
659 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 302359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
659 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 302359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
659 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 302337 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
AS OF 245 PM TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
WE HAD TWO REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE OVER DEKALB COUNTY AND 1.5 INCH
HAIL IN CULLMAN COUNTY...EARLIER TODAY.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY THIS MRNG/AFTN...HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. STILL COULD SEE
A FEW MORE SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
ONLY BE ISOLATED. SHRA/TSRA MAY ACTUALLY TAPER OFF/END LATER THIS
EVENING BUT NAM SHOWS THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE(NOW OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST)MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS
WILL BROADBRUSH TONIGHT WITH A 20 POP ACROSS THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/MCS WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY. ALSO
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS. WITH PW`S ARND 1.80 INCH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/WET MICROBURST
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WET BULB ZERO WILL RISE TO ARND 12000 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTN THUS NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE HAIL.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...MORE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...HOWEVER NW FLOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SW
UPPER FLOW. BY MONDAY/TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD
FURTHER EAST. THIS COULD LOWER THE CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE CWA AND
INCREASE TEMPS A LITTLE.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
TERMINALS UNTIL 14Z. WILL INTRODUCE A TEMPO 4SM TSRA BKN030CB
GROUPING FROM 16Z-19Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL. EXPECT A CONTINUING VCTS
TO TEMPO 4SM TSRA BKN030CB GROUPING AT BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 302337 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
AS OF 245 PM TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
WE HAD TWO REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE OVER DEKALB COUNTY AND 1.5 INCH
HAIL IN CULLMAN COUNTY...EARLIER TODAY.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY THIS MRNG/AFTN...HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. STILL COULD SEE
A FEW MORE SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
ONLY BE ISOLATED. SHRA/TSRA MAY ACTUALLY TAPER OFF/END LATER THIS
EVENING BUT NAM SHOWS THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE(NOW OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST)MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS
WILL BROADBRUSH TONIGHT WITH A 20 POP ACROSS THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/MCS WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY. ALSO
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS. WITH PW`S ARND 1.80 INCH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/WET MICROBURST
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WET BULB ZERO WILL RISE TO ARND 12000 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTN THUS NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE HAIL.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...MORE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...HOWEVER NW FLOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SW
UPPER FLOW. BY MONDAY/TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD
FURTHER EAST. THIS COULD LOWER THE CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE CWA AND
INCREASE TEMPS A LITTLE.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
TERMINALS UNTIL 14Z. WILL INTRODUCE A TEMPO 4SM TSRA BKN030CB
GROUPING FROM 16Z-19Z FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL. EXPECT A CONTINUING VCTS
TO TEMPO 4SM TSRA BKN030CB GROUPING AT BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 302115
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...INTERESTING AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY STORMS OVER THE
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY RACED SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE WERE COMMON. SOME MINOR
WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BALDWIN
COUNTY...PRIMARILY TREES AND POWER LINES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...NOW REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ONLY THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND AREA BAYS...AS WELL AS GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM. WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WELL OFFSHORE...WE WILL BE
CANCELLING THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WATCH BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
FCST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. FOR THE EVENING...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WILL ADVERTISE FOR A CHANCE OF FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WITH LACK OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THESE LATE NIGHT
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE ONES THIS AFTERNOON
WERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S DOWN ALONG THE
COAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION...BUT A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM NE-
SW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY ACT AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH
THIS FOCUS...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT (WHAT LITTLE THERE WAS) MOVING
EAST AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE
TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS INTENSE AS THOSE OF TODAY
EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ALL
LOCATIONS. 12/DS

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. STICKING WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND...HOVERING
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AS THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS CONTINUES TO BROADEN OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND
MORE SEASONAL WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
FOR NOW...EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND SUNSET
ON THE HOLIDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THAT EVENING.

NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE GRIPS THE REGION. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TRENDING
WARMER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND COASTLINE.
07/MB

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...BASED ON CONVECTION ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTH WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOR IFR CONDITIONS
IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHERWISE VFR/VCSH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  90  74  91  75 /  30  50  20  30  10
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  90  77 /  30  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  78  89  79 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  91  72 /  30  40  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  72  92  71 /  30  50  30  30  10
CAMDEN      72  90  72  90  72 /  30  40  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   74  91  72  92  73 /  30  30  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 302115
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...INTERESTING AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY STORMS OVER THE
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY RACED SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE WERE COMMON. SOME MINOR
WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BALDWIN
COUNTY...PRIMARILY TREES AND POWER LINES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...NOW REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ONLY THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND AREA BAYS...AS WELL AS GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM. WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WELL OFFSHORE...WE WILL BE
CANCELLING THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WATCH BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
FCST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. FOR THE EVENING...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WILL ADVERTISE FOR A CHANCE OF FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WITH LACK OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THESE LATE NIGHT
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE ONES THIS AFTERNOON
WERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S DOWN ALONG THE
COAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION...BUT A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM NE-
SW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY ACT AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH
THIS FOCUS...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT (WHAT LITTLE THERE WAS) MOVING
EAST AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE
TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS INTENSE AS THOSE OF TODAY
EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ALL
LOCATIONS. 12/DS

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. STICKING WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND...HOVERING
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AS THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS CONTINUES TO BROADEN OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND
MORE SEASONAL WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
FOR NOW...EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND SUNSET
ON THE HOLIDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THAT EVENING.

NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE GRIPS THE REGION. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO LOW 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TRENDING
WARMER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND COASTLINE.
07/MB

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...BASED ON CONVECTION ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTH WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOR IFR CONDITIONS
IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHERWISE VFR/VCSH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  90  74  91  75 /  30  50  20  30  10
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  90  77 /  30  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  78  89  79 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  91  72 /  30  40  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  72  92  71 /  30  50  30  30  10
CAMDEN      72  90  72  90  72 /  30  40  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   74  91  72  92  73 /  30  30  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 302008
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAINTOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MGM/TOI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF VIS DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE AND WILL WATCH TOI FOR STORMDEVELOPMENT.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...STORM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON VCTS
UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL NEARBY.
ALSO...STILL GETTING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DESPITE THE
CLOUDCOVER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT COULDN`T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL IMPULSES COMING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  70  86  70 /  20  60  60  70  60
ANNISTON    68  87  70  86  71 /  20  60  60  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  71  88  72  88  72 /  20  60  60  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  73  91  72 /  20  60  40  60  40
CALERA      70  88  71  87  72 /  20  60  50  60  40
AUBURN      69  87  70  88  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  73 /  40  40  40  50  30
TROY        70  91  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 302008
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO TO JUST
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOW
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE
SEVERE WORDING BY 4 PM IF THINGS CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND. AREAS
IN THE SOUTH ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
IN THE 70S ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
CALERA TO EUFAULA (76 TO 91).

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAINTOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MGM/TOI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF VIS DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE AND WILL WATCH TOI FOR STORMDEVELOPMENT.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...STORM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON VCTS
UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL NEARBY.
ALSO...STILL GETTING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DESPITE THE
CLOUDCOVER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT COULDN`T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL IMPULSES COMING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  70  86  70 /  20  60  60  70  60
ANNISTON    68  87  70  86  71 /  20  60  60  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  71  88  72  88  72 /  20  60  60  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  73  91  72 /  20  60  40  60  40
CALERA      70  88  71  87  72 /  20  60  50  60  40
AUBURN      69  87  70  88  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  73 /  40  40  40  50  30
TROY        70  91  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301956
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
256 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 245 PM TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
WE HAD TWO REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE OVER DEKALB COUNTY AND 1.5 INCH
HAIL IN CULLMAN COUNTY...EARLIER TODAY.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY THIS MRNG/AFTN...HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. STILL COULD SEE
A FEW MORE SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
ONLY BE ISOLATED. SHRA/TSRA MAY ACTUALLY TAPER OFF/END LATER THIS
EVENING BUT NAM SHOWS THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE(NOW OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST)MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS
WILL BROADBRUSH TONIGHT WITH A 20 POP ACROSS THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/MCS WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY. ALSO
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS. WITH PW`S ARND 1.80 INCH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/WET MICROBURST
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WET BULB ZERO WILL RISE TO ARND 12000 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTN THUS NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE HAIL.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...MORE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...HOWEVER NW FLOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SW
UPPER FLOW. BY MONDAY/TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD
FURTHER EAST. THIS COULD LOWER THE CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE CWA AND
INCREASE TEMPS A LITTLE.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL CONTINUE THE -TSRA AT KHSV AND KMSL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AT
2500-3500 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE
AND HOW MUCH WE CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFT WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  85  70  86 /  20  70  60  70
SHOALS        71  86  71  87 /  20  70  60  70
VINEMONT      69  85  70  86 /  20  70  60  70
FAYETTEVILLE  68  84  68  83 /  20  70  60  70
ALBERTVILLE   70  82  70  84 /  20  70  60  70
FORT PAYNE    68  84  69  83 /  20  70  60  70

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301948
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
248 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING AND SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY
MUCH STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO
TO JUST THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES
ARE NOW WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN THE SOUTH
ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 70S
ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM CALERA TO
EUFAULA (76 TO 91). STILL COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...THUS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM. THE AREA HAS
BEEN OUTFLOWS ALREADY SO THERE IS SOME SUBSIDENCE...BUT UNTIL THE
SETS UP A THREAT REMAINS.

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAINTOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MGM/TOI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF VIS DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE AND WILL WATCH TOI FOR STORMDEVELOPMENT.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...STORM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON VCTS
UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL NEARBY.
ALSO...STILL GETTING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DESPITE THE
CLOUDCOVER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT COULDN`T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL IMPULSES COMING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  70  86  70 /  20  60  60  70  60
ANNISTON    68  87  70  86  71 /  20  60  60  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  71  88  72  88  72 /  20  60  60  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  73  91  72 /  20  60  40  60  40
CALERA      70  88  71  87  72 /  20  60  50  60  40
AUBURN      69  87  70  88  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  73 /  40  40  40  50  30
TROY        70  91  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301948
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
248 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING AND SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY
MUCH STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO
TO JUST THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES
ARE NOW WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN THE SOUTH
ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 70S
ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM CALERA TO
EUFAULA (76 TO 91). STILL COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...THUS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM. THE AREA HAS
BEEN OUTFLOWS ALREADY SO THERE IS SOME SUBSIDENCE...BUT UNTIL THE
SETS UP A THREAT REMAINS.

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAINTOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MGM/TOI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF VIS DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE AND WILL WATCH TOI FOR STORMDEVELOPMENT.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...STORM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON VCTS
UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL NEARBY.
ALSO...STILL GETTING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DESPITE THE
CLOUDCOVER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT COULDN`T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL IMPULSES COMING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  70  86  70 /  20  60  60  70  60
ANNISTON    68  87  70  86  71 /  20  60  60  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  71  88  72  88  72 /  20  60  60  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  73  91  72 /  20  60  40  60  40
CALERA      70  88  71  87  72 /  20  60  50  60  40
AUBURN      69  87  70  88  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  73 /  40  40  40  50  30
TROY        70  91  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301948
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
248 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING AND SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY
MUCH STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO
TO JUST THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES
ARE NOW WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN THE SOUTH
ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 70S
ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM CALERA TO
EUFAULA (76 TO 91). STILL COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...THUS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM. THE AREA HAS
BEEN OUTFLOWS ALREADY SO THERE IS SOME SUBSIDENCE...BUT UNTIL THE
SETS UP A THREAT REMAINS.

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAINTOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MGM/TOI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF VIS DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE AND WILL WATCH TOI FOR STORMDEVELOPMENT.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...STORM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON VCTS
UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL NEARBY.
ALSO...STILL GETTING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DESPITE THE
CLOUDCOVER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT COULDN`T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL IMPULSES COMING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  70  86  70 /  20  60  60  70  60
ANNISTON    68  87  70  86  71 /  20  60  60  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  71  88  72  88  72 /  20  60  60  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  73  91  72 /  20  60  40  60  40
CALERA      70  88  71  87  72 /  20  60  50  60  40
AUBURN      69  87  70  88  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  73 /  40  40  40  50  30
TROY        70  91  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301948
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
248 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A VERY EVENTFUL EARLY MORNING AND SHIFT...THINGS HAVE PRETTY
MUCH STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE THREAT IN THE HWO
TO JUST THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES
ARE NOW WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN THE SOUTH
ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 70S
ACROSS HERE. THERE IS QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM CALERA TO
EUFAULA (76 TO 91). STILL COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...THUS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM. THE AREA HAS
BEEN OUTFLOWS ALREADY SO THERE IS SOME SUBSIDENCE...BUT UNTIL THE
SETS UP A THREAT REMAINS.

AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED BEFORE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY TROUBLING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND TIMING...SO TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP IN THE AIR.
THINKING THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE IN THE NORTH ONCE
AGAINTOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT
WAS WORKED OVER TODAY SO WILL THERE BE ENOUGH THERE TO TRULY TAP
INTO TOMORROW IS A BIG QUESTION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. TWO DAYS AGO MODELS WERE INDICATING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCES...WHEREAS THE MODELS NOW GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSES TONS OF TROUBLE FOR A FORECAST. AS FAR
AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS...IF THE TIMING IS LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THERE SURE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER IF NOT SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH UNORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SO WHAT ABOUT THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DWINDLING AFTER THE SUN SETS...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE NATURE
OF THE SUMMER ACTIVITY WILL REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT RADAR TO SEE IF
A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL BE IMPACTED OR NOT. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL IT BE A WASHOUT...LIKELY NOT...BUT
THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SO YOU
MAY GET TO ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS FOLLOWED BY MAN MADE
FIREWORKS OR VICE VERSA...SO HAVE PLANS IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE.
HIGHER CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MGM/TOI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF VIS DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE AND WILL WATCH TOI FOR STORMDEVELOPMENT.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...STORM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON VCTS
UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL NEARBY.
ALSO...STILL GETTING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DESPITE THE
CLOUDCOVER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT COULDN`T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL IMPULSES COMING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  70  86  70 /  20  60  60  70  60
ANNISTON    68  87  70  86  71 /  20  60  60  70  50
BIRMINGHAM  71  88  72  88  72 /  20  60  60  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  73  91  72 /  20  60  40  60  40
CALERA      70  88  71  87  72 /  20  60  50  60  40
AUBURN      69  87  70  88  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  73 /  40  40  40  50  30
TROY        70  91  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 301944 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
244 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 376 FOR OUR ALABAMA
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. UPDATED
TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...BASED ON CONVECTION ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA AND MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING ABUNDANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF AROUND 3000 J/KG...HAVE UPDATED WITH CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MADE OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO MENTION THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY THU FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES OF AL AND NWFL.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DIGGING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING DOWN FROM
THE ARLATX REGION THIS MORNING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OR FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADING TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS LOCALLY ENHANCING THE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS
LOCALLY FOR A FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RANGING FROM 6.8 TO 7.3 C/KM AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
PLACES MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO A MORE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THIS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV/ECS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES MOSTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN MOSTLY
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV MOS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS
AND THE LOWER 90S GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MLCAPE...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THAT OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WE WILL
AT LEAST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH. WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ENHANCED WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY LIFT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE GULF ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. WHILE ISOLATED DAILY CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY RISE TO AROUND 100 LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
01.12Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW INCREASING TO 10 TO 13
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BECOMING SSW AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL
FORCING AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL IN THE 3 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK SUBSIDING TO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 301944 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
244 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 376 FOR OUR ALABAMA
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. UPDATED
TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...BASED ON CONVECTION ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA AND MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING ABUNDANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF AROUND 3000 J/KG...HAVE UPDATED WITH CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MADE OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO MENTION THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY THU FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES OF AL AND NWFL.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DIGGING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING DOWN FROM
THE ARLATX REGION THIS MORNING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OR FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADING TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS LOCALLY ENHANCING THE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS
LOCALLY FOR A FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RANGING FROM 6.8 TO 7.3 C/KM AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
PLACES MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO A MORE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THIS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV/ECS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES MOSTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN MOSTLY
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV MOS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS
AND THE LOWER 90S GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MLCAPE...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THAT OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WE WILL
AT LEAST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH. WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ENHANCED WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY LIFT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE GULF ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. WHILE ISOLATED DAILY CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY RISE TO AROUND 100 LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
01.12Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW INCREASING TO 10 TO 13
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BECOMING SSW AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL
FORCING AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL IN THE 3 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK SUBSIDING TO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 301944 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
244 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 376 FOR OUR ALABAMA
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. UPDATED
TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...BASED ON CONVECTION ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA AND MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING ABUNDANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF AROUND 3000 J/KG...HAVE UPDATED WITH CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MADE OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO MENTION THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY THU FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES OF AL AND NWFL.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DIGGING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING DOWN FROM
THE ARLATX REGION THIS MORNING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OR FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADING TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS LOCALLY ENHANCING THE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS
LOCALLY FOR A FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RANGING FROM 6.8 TO 7.3 C/KM AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
PLACES MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO A MORE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THIS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV/ECS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES MOSTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN MOSTLY
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV MOS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS
AND THE LOWER 90S GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MLCAPE...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THAT OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WE WILL
AT LEAST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH. WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ENHANCED WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY LIFT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE GULF ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. WHILE ISOLATED DAILY CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY RISE TO AROUND 100 LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
01.12Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW INCREASING TO 10 TO 13
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BECOMING SSW AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL
FORCING AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL IN THE 3 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK SUBSIDING TO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 301944 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
244 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 376 FOR OUR ALABAMA
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. UPDATED
TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...BASED ON CONVECTION ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA AND MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING ABUNDANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF AROUND 3000 J/KG...HAVE UPDATED WITH CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MADE OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO MENTION THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY THU FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES OF AL AND NWFL.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DIGGING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING DOWN FROM
THE ARLATX REGION THIS MORNING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OR FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADING TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS LOCALLY ENHANCING THE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS
LOCALLY FOR A FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RANGING FROM 6.8 TO 7.3 C/KM AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
PLACES MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO A MORE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THIS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV/ECS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES MOSTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN MOSTLY
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV MOS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS
AND THE LOWER 90S GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MLCAPE...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THAT OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WE WILL
AT LEAST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH. WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ENHANCED WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY LIFT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE GULF ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. WHILE ISOLATED DAILY CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY RISE TO AROUND 100 LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
01.12Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW INCREASING TO 10 TO 13
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BECOMING SSW AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL
FORCING AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL IN THE 3 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK SUBSIDING TO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301753
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT UNDER WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO
SEVERITY THOUGH ARE ABUNDANT. MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HIGHS
AS WELL...AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE AREA COOLER THROUGH THE
MORNING. MIGHT BE QUITE A GRADIENT TEMPERATURE WISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MGM/TOI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF VIS DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE AND WILL WATCH TOI FOR TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...TSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HOLD
OFF ON VCTS UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL
NEARBY. ALSO...STILL GETTING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DESPITE
THE CLOUDCOVER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT
COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM GIVEN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL IMPULSES COMING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  87  71  83  70 /  20  60  60  70  50
ANNISTON    68  88  71  85  70 /  30  50  50  70  40
BIRMINGHAM  71  88  73  86  72 /  20  50  50  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  74  90  73 /  20  50  40  60  40
CALERA      70  88  72  87  72 /  30  50  50  60  40
AUBURN      69  88  71  87  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  74 /  40  40  40  50  30
TROY        70  91  72  90  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301753
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT UNDER WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO
SEVERITY THOUGH ARE ABUNDANT. MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HIGHS
AS WELL...AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE AREA COOLER THROUGH THE
MORNING. MIGHT BE QUITE A GRADIENT TEMPERATURE WISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MGM/TOI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF VIS DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE AND WILL WATCH TOI FOR TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...TSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HOLD
OFF ON VCTS UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL
NEARBY. ALSO...STILL GETTING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DESPITE
THE CLOUDCOVER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT
COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM GIVEN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL IMPULSES COMING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  87  71  83  70 /  20  60  60  70  50
ANNISTON    68  88  71  85  70 /  30  50  50  70  40
BIRMINGHAM  71  88  73  86  72 /  20  50  50  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  74  90  73 /  20  50  40  60  40
CALERA      70  88  72  87  72 /  30  50  50  60  40
AUBURN      69  88  71  87  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  74 /  40  40  40  50  30
TROY        70  91  72  90  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301753
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT UNDER WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO
SEVERITY THOUGH ARE ABUNDANT. MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HIGHS
AS WELL...AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE AREA COOLER THROUGH THE
MORNING. MIGHT BE QUITE A GRADIENT TEMPERATURE WISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MGM/TOI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF VIS DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE AND WILL WATCH TOI FOR TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...TSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HOLD
OFF ON VCTS UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL
NEARBY. ALSO...STILL GETTING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DESPITE
THE CLOUDCOVER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT
COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM GIVEN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL IMPULSES COMING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  87  71  83  70 /  20  60  60  70  50
ANNISTON    68  88  71  85  70 /  30  50  50  70  40
BIRMINGHAM  71  88  73  86  72 /  20  50  50  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  74  90  73 /  20  50  40  60  40
CALERA      70  88  72  87  72 /  30  50  50  60  40
AUBURN      69  88  71  87  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  74 /  40  40  40  50  30
TROY        70  91  72  90  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301753
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT UNDER WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO
SEVERITY THOUGH ARE ABUNDANT. MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HIGHS
AS WELL...AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE AREA COOLER THROUGH THE
MORNING. MIGHT BE QUITE A GRADIENT TEMPERATURE WISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MGM/TOI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF VIS DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE AND WILL WATCH TOI FOR TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...TSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HOLD
OFF ON VCTS UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL
NEARBY. ALSO...STILL GETTING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DESPITE
THE CLOUDCOVER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT
COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM GIVEN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL IMPULSES COMING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  87  71  83  70 /  20  60  60  70  50
ANNISTON    68  88  71  85  70 /  30  50  50  70  40
BIRMINGHAM  71  88  73  86  72 /  20  50  50  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  74  90  73 /  20  50  40  60  40
CALERA      70  88  72  87  72 /  30  50  50  60  40
AUBURN      69  88  71  87  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  74 /  40  40  40  50  30
TROY        70  91  72  90  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301753
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT UNDER WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO
SEVERITY THOUGH ARE ABUNDANT. MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HIGHS
AS WELL...AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE AREA COOLER THROUGH THE
MORNING. MIGHT BE QUITE A GRADIENT TEMPERATURE WISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MGM/TOI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF VIS DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE AND WILL WATCH TOI FOR TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...TSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HOLD
OFF ON VCTS UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL
NEARBY. ALSO...STILL GETTING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DESPITE
THE CLOUDCOVER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT
COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM GIVEN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL IMPULSES COMING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  87  71  83  70 /  20  60  60  70  50
ANNISTON    68  88  71  85  70 /  30  50  50  70  40
BIRMINGHAM  71  88  73  86  72 /  20  50  50  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  74  90  73 /  20  50  40  60  40
CALERA      70  88  72  87  72 /  30  50  50  60  40
AUBURN      69  88  71  87  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  74 /  40  40  40  50  30
TROY        70  91  72  90  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301753
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT UNDER WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO
SEVERITY THOUGH ARE ABUNDANT. MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HIGHS
AS WELL...AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE AREA COOLER THROUGH THE
MORNING. MIGHT BE QUITE A GRADIENT TEMPERATURE WISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MGM/TOI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF VIS DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE AND WILL WATCH TOI FOR TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...TSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HOLD
OFF ON VCTS UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL
NEARBY. ALSO...STILL GETTING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DESPITE
THE CLOUDCOVER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT
COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM GIVEN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL IMPULSES COMING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  87  71  83  70 /  20  60  60  70  50
ANNISTON    68  88  71  85  70 /  30  50  50  70  40
BIRMINGHAM  71  88  73  86  72 /  20  50  50  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  74  90  73 /  20  50  40  60  40
CALERA      70  88  72  87  72 /  30  50  50  60  40
AUBURN      69  88  71  87  72 /  50  40  40  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  91  73  91  74 /  40  40  40  50  30
TROY        70  91  72  90  73 /  50  40  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301720
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AS THE MCV MOVES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL.

AFTER THIS MORNINGS BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A DRY PERIOD INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN MORE STORMS DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TN AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY OFF OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE CLEARING. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH A SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR NW AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT.
WILL SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION AND HOW MUCH ITS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE UNDERNEATH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

LOW WET BULB LEVELS AROUND 9-1O,000 FT ALLOWED FOR SEVERE HAIL IN
THIS MORNINGS STORMS. THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW WET
BULB LEVELS REMAIN AROUND THAT HEIGHT...BUT WITH DRY AIR FILTERING
IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH MAY KEEP THE COVERAGE AT BAY. WITH HOW MANY
LINGERING BOUNDARIES THERE ARE EXACT COVERAGE MAY VARY...ESPECIALLY
DEPENDING ON IF WE REACH THE ~2000 J/KG CAPE THE MODELS PROJECT.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...MADE UPDATES TO THE POP AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING INTO THIS EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ON GOING CONVECTION
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL MONITOR TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
TRENDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL CONTINUE THE -TSRA AT KHSV AND KMSL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AT
2500-3500 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE
AND HOW MUCH WE CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFT WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301720
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AS THE MCV MOVES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL.

AFTER THIS MORNINGS BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A DRY PERIOD INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN MORE STORMS DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TN AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY OFF OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE CLEARING. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH A SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR NW AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT.
WILL SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION AND HOW MUCH ITS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE UNDERNEATH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

LOW WET BULB LEVELS AROUND 9-1O,000 FT ALLOWED FOR SEVERE HAIL IN
THIS MORNINGS STORMS. THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW WET
BULB LEVELS REMAIN AROUND THAT HEIGHT...BUT WITH DRY AIR FILTERING
IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH MAY KEEP THE COVERAGE AT BAY. WITH HOW MANY
LINGERING BOUNDARIES THERE ARE EXACT COVERAGE MAY VARY...ESPECIALLY
DEPENDING ON IF WE REACH THE ~2000 J/KG CAPE THE MODELS PROJECT.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...MADE UPDATES TO THE POP AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING INTO THIS EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ON GOING CONVECTION
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL MONITOR TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
TRENDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL CONTINUE THE -TSRA AT KHSV AND KMSL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AT
2500-3500 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE
AND HOW MUCH WE CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFT WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301720
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AS THE MCV MOVES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL.

AFTER THIS MORNINGS BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A DRY PERIOD INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN MORE STORMS DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TN AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY OFF OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE CLEARING. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH A SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR NW AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT.
WILL SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION AND HOW MUCH ITS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE UNDERNEATH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

LOW WET BULB LEVELS AROUND 9-1O,000 FT ALLOWED FOR SEVERE HAIL IN
THIS MORNINGS STORMS. THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW WET
BULB LEVELS REMAIN AROUND THAT HEIGHT...BUT WITH DRY AIR FILTERING
IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH MAY KEEP THE COVERAGE AT BAY. WITH HOW MANY
LINGERING BOUNDARIES THERE ARE EXACT COVERAGE MAY VARY...ESPECIALLY
DEPENDING ON IF WE REACH THE ~2000 J/KG CAPE THE MODELS PROJECT.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...MADE UPDATES TO THE POP AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING INTO THIS EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ON GOING CONVECTION
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL MONITOR TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
TRENDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL CONTINUE THE -TSRA AT KHSV AND KMSL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AT
2500-3500 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE
AND HOW MUCH WE CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFT WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301610 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AS THE MCV MOVES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL.

AFTER THIS MORNINGS BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A DRY PERIOD INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN MORE STORMS DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TN AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY OFF OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE CLEARING. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH A SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR NW AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT.
WILL SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION AND HOW MUCH ITS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE UNDERNEATH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

LOW WET BULB LEVELS AROUND 9-1O,000 FT ALLOWED FOR SEVERE HAIL IN
THIS MORNINGS STORMS. THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW WET
BULB LEVELS REMAIN AROUND THAT HEIGHT...BUT WITH DRY AIR FILTERING
IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH MAY KEEP THE COVERAGE AT BAY. WITH HOW MANY
LINGERING BOUNDARIES THERE ARE EXACT COVERAGE MAY VARY...ESPECIALLY
DEPENDING ON IF WE REACH THE ~2000 J/KG CAPE THE MODELS PROJECT.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...MADE UPDATES TO THE POP AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING INTO THIS EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ON GOING CONVECTION
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL MONITOR TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
TRENDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS INTERACTING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPO VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301610 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AS THE MCV MOVES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL.

AFTER THIS MORNINGS BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A DRY PERIOD INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN MORE STORMS DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TN AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY OFF OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE CLEARING. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH A SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR NW AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT.
WILL SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION AND HOW MUCH ITS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE UNDERNEATH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

LOW WET BULB LEVELS AROUND 9-1O,000 FT ALLOWED FOR SEVERE HAIL IN
THIS MORNINGS STORMS. THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW WET
BULB LEVELS REMAIN AROUND THAT HEIGHT...BUT WITH DRY AIR FILTERING
IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH MAY KEEP THE COVERAGE AT BAY. WITH HOW MANY
LINGERING BOUNDARIES THERE ARE EXACT COVERAGE MAY VARY...ESPECIALLY
DEPENDING ON IF WE REACH THE ~2000 J/KG CAPE THE MODELS PROJECT.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...MADE UPDATES TO THE POP AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING INTO THIS EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ON GOING CONVECTION
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL MONITOR TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
TRENDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS INTERACTING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPO VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301610 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AS THE MCV MOVES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL.

AFTER THIS MORNINGS BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A DRY PERIOD INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN MORE STORMS DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TN AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY OFF OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE CLEARING. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH A SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR NW AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT.
WILL SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION AND HOW MUCH ITS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE UNDERNEATH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

LOW WET BULB LEVELS AROUND 9-1O,000 FT ALLOWED FOR SEVERE HAIL IN
THIS MORNINGS STORMS. THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW WET
BULB LEVELS REMAIN AROUND THAT HEIGHT...BUT WITH DRY AIR FILTERING
IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH MAY KEEP THE COVERAGE AT BAY. WITH HOW MANY
LINGERING BOUNDARIES THERE ARE EXACT COVERAGE MAY VARY...ESPECIALLY
DEPENDING ON IF WE REACH THE ~2000 J/KG CAPE THE MODELS PROJECT.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...MADE UPDATES TO THE POP AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING INTO THIS EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ON GOING CONVECTION
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL MONITOR TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
TRENDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS INTERACTING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPO VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301610 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AS THE MCV MOVES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL.

AFTER THIS MORNINGS BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A DRY PERIOD INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN MORE STORMS DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TN AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY OFF OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE CLEARING. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH A SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR NW AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT.
WILL SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION AND HOW MUCH ITS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE UNDERNEATH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

LOW WET BULB LEVELS AROUND 9-1O,000 FT ALLOWED FOR SEVERE HAIL IN
THIS MORNINGS STORMS. THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW WET
BULB LEVELS REMAIN AROUND THAT HEIGHT...BUT WITH DRY AIR FILTERING
IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH MAY KEEP THE COVERAGE AT BAY. WITH HOW MANY
LINGERING BOUNDARIES THERE ARE EXACT COVERAGE MAY VARY...ESPECIALLY
DEPENDING ON IF WE REACH THE ~2000 J/KG CAPE THE MODELS PROJECT.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...MADE UPDATES TO THE POP AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING INTO THIS EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ON GOING CONVECTION
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL MONITOR TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
TRENDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS INTERACTING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPO VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301429
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
929 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT UNDER WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO
SEVERITY THOUGH ARE ABUNDANT. MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HIGHS
AS WELL...AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE AREA COOLER THROUGH THE
MORNING. MIGHT BE QUITE A GRADIENT TEMPERATURE WISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR TERM...NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...TCL/BHM/EET
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME TS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF TS IS LOWER AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS...SO WILL HAVE TO AMEND AS BETTER TIMING
TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE
THRU THE AFTN/EVNG. SW WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...BUT SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
LATER THIS EVENING.

19


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  68  87  71  83 / 100  20  60  60  70
ANNISTON    85  68  88  71  85 / 100  30  50  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  85  71  88  73  86 /  90  20  50  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  84  70  90  74  90 /  90  20  50  40  60
CALERA      85  70  88  72  87 /  90  30  50  50  60
AUBURN      85  69  88  71  87 /  90  50  40  40  60
MONTGOMERY  89  71  91  73  91 / 100  40  40  40  50
TROY        87  70  91  72  90 / 100  50  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301429
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
929 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT UNDER WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO
SEVERITY THOUGH ARE ABUNDANT. MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HIGHS
AS WELL...AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE AREA COOLER THROUGH THE
MORNING. MIGHT BE QUITE A GRADIENT TEMPERATURE WISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR TERM...NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...TCL/BHM/EET
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME TS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF TS IS LOWER AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS...SO WILL HAVE TO AMEND AS BETTER TIMING
TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE
THRU THE AFTN/EVNG. SW WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...BUT SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
LATER THIS EVENING.

19


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  68  87  71  83 / 100  20  60  60  70
ANNISTON    85  68  88  71  85 / 100  30  50  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  85  71  88  73  86 /  90  20  50  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  84  70  90  74  90 /  90  20  50  40  60
CALERA      85  70  88  72  87 /  90  30  50  50  60
AUBURN      85  69  88  71  87 /  90  50  40  40  60
MONTGOMERY  89  71  91  73  91 / 100  40  40  40  50
TROY        87  70  91  72  90 / 100  50  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301429
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
929 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT UNDER WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO
SEVERITY THOUGH ARE ABUNDANT. MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HIGHS
AS WELL...AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE AREA COOLER THROUGH THE
MORNING. MIGHT BE QUITE A GRADIENT TEMPERATURE WISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR TERM...NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...TCL/BHM/EET
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME TS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF TS IS LOWER AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS...SO WILL HAVE TO AMEND AS BETTER TIMING
TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE
THRU THE AFTN/EVNG. SW WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...BUT SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
LATER THIS EVENING.

19


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  68  87  71  83 / 100  20  60  60  70
ANNISTON    85  68  88  71  85 / 100  30  50  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  85  71  88  73  86 /  90  20  50  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  84  70  90  74  90 /  90  20  50  40  60
CALERA      85  70  88  72  87 /  90  30  50  50  60
AUBURN      85  69  88  71  87 /  90  50  40  40  60
MONTGOMERY  89  71  91  73  91 / 100  40  40  40  50
TROY        87  70  91  72  90 / 100  50  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 301406 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
906 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...BASED ON CONVECTION ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA AND MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING ABUNDANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF AROUND 3000 J/KG...HAVE UPDATED WITH CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MADE OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO MENTION THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY THU FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES OF AL AND NWFL.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DIGGING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING DOWN FROM
THE ARLATX REGION THIS MORNING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OR FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADING TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS LOCALLY ENHANCING THE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS
LOCALLY FOR A FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RANGING FROM 6.8 TO 7.3 C/KM AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
PLACES MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO A MORE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THIS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV/ECS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES MOSTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN MOSTLY
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV MOS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS
AND THE LOWER 90S GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MLCAPE...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THAT OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WE WILL
AT LEAST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH. WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ENHANCED WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY LIFT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE GULF ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. WHILE ISOLATED DAILY CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY RISE TO AROUND 100 LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
01.12Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW INCREASING TO 10 TO 13
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BECOMING SSW AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL
FORCING AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL IN THE 3 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK SUBSIDING TO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  90  74  92 /  60  30  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  76  89  77  91 /  50  30  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  78  90 /  50  40  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  91  72  93 /  70  40  40  20  40
WAYNESBORO  87  71  91  72  92 /  90  30  50  20  30
CAMDEN      88  71  91  72  91 /  80  40  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   88  72  92  73  93 /  70  40  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 301406 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
906 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...BASED ON CONVECTION ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA AND MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING ABUNDANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF AROUND 3000 J/KG...HAVE UPDATED WITH CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MADE OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO MENTION THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY THU FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES OF AL AND NWFL.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DIGGING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING DOWN FROM
THE ARLATX REGION THIS MORNING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OR FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADING TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS LOCALLY ENHANCING THE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS
LOCALLY FOR A FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RANGING FROM 6.8 TO 7.3 C/KM AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
PLACES MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO A MORE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THIS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV/ECS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES MOSTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN MOSTLY
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV MOS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS
AND THE LOWER 90S GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MLCAPE...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THAT OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WE WILL
AT LEAST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH. WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ENHANCED WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY LIFT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE GULF ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. WHILE ISOLATED DAILY CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY RISE TO AROUND 100 LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
01.12Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW INCREASING TO 10 TO 13
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BECOMING SSW AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL
FORCING AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL IN THE 3 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK SUBSIDING TO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  90  74  92 /  60  30  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  76  89  77  91 /  50  30  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  78  90 /  50  40  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  91  72  93 /  70  40  40  20  40
WAYNESBORO  87  71  91  72  92 /  90  30  50  20  30
CAMDEN      88  71  91  72  91 /  80  40  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   88  72  92  73  93 /  70  40  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 301206 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
706 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO MENTION THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY THU FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES OF AL AND NWFL.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DIGGING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING DOWN FROM
THE ARLATX REGION THIS MORNING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OR FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADING TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS LOCALLY ENHANCING THE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS
LOCALLY FOR A FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RANGING FROM 6.8 TO 7.3 C/KM AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
PLACES MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO A MORE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THIS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV/ECS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES MOSTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN MOSTLY
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV MOS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS
AND THE LOWER 90S GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MLCAPE...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THAT OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WE WILL
AT LEAST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH. WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ENHANCED WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY LIFT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE GULF ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. WHILE ISOLATED DAILY CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY RISE TO AROUND 100 LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
01.12Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW INCREASING TO 10 TO 13
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BECOMING SSW AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL
FORCING AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL IN THE 3 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK SUBSIDING TO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  90  74  92 /  50  30  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  76  89  77  91 /  50  30  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  78  90 /  40  40  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  91  72  93 /  50  40  40  20  40
WAYNESBORO  87  71  91  72  92 /  50  30  50  20  30
CAMDEN      88  71  91  72  91 /  50  40  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   88  72  92  73  93 /  50  40  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 301206 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
706 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO MENTION THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY THU FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES OF AL AND NWFL.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DIGGING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING DOWN FROM
THE ARLATX REGION THIS MORNING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OR FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADING TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS LOCALLY ENHANCING THE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS
LOCALLY FOR A FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RANGING FROM 6.8 TO 7.3 C/KM AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
PLACES MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO A MORE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THIS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV/ECS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES MOSTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN MOSTLY
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV MOS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS
AND THE LOWER 90S GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MLCAPE...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THAT OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WE WILL
AT LEAST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH. WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ENHANCED WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY LIFT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE GULF ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. WHILE ISOLATED DAILY CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY RISE TO AROUND 100 LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
01.12Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW INCREASING TO 10 TO 13
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BECOMING SSW AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL
FORCING AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL IN THE 3 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK SUBSIDING TO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  90  74  92 /  50  30  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  76  89  77  91 /  50  30  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  78  90 /  40  40  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  91  72  93 /  50  40  40  20  40
WAYNESBORO  87  71  91  72  92 /  50  30  50  20  30
CAMDEN      88  71  91  72  91 /  50  40  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   88  72  92  73  93 /  50  40  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 301206 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
706 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO MENTION THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY THU FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES OF AL AND NWFL.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DIGGING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING DOWN FROM
THE ARLATX REGION THIS MORNING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OR FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADING TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS LOCALLY ENHANCING THE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS
LOCALLY FOR A FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RANGING FROM 6.8 TO 7.3 C/KM AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
PLACES MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO A MORE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THIS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV/ECS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES MOSTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN MOSTLY
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV MOS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS
AND THE LOWER 90S GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MLCAPE...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THAT OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WE WILL
AT LEAST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH. WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ENHANCED WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY LIFT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE GULF ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. WHILE ISOLATED DAILY CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY RISE TO AROUND 100 LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
01.12Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW INCREASING TO 10 TO 13
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BECOMING SSW AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL
FORCING AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL IN THE 3 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK SUBSIDING TO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  90  74  92 /  50  30  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  76  89  77  91 /  50  30  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  78  90 /  40  40  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  91  72  93 /  50  40  40  20  40
WAYNESBORO  87  71  91  72  92 /  50  30  50  20  30
CAMDEN      88  71  91  72  91 /  50  40  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   88  72  92  73  93 /  50  40  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 301206 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
706 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO MENTION THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY THU FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES OF AL AND NWFL.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DIGGING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING DOWN FROM
THE ARLATX REGION THIS MORNING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OR FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADING TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS LOCALLY ENHANCING THE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS
LOCALLY FOR A FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RANGING FROM 6.8 TO 7.3 C/KM AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
PLACES MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO A MORE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THIS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV/ECS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES MOSTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN MOSTLY
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV MOS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS
AND THE LOWER 90S GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MLCAPE...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THAT OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WE WILL
AT LEAST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH. WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ENHANCED WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY LIFT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE GULF ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. WHILE ISOLATED DAILY CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY RISE TO AROUND 100 LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
01.12Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW INCREASING TO 10 TO 13
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BECOMING SSW AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL
FORCING AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL IN THE 3 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK SUBSIDING TO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  90  74  92 /  50  30  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  76  89  77  91 /  50  30  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  78  90 /  40  40  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  91  72  93 /  50  40  40  20  40
WAYNESBORO  87  71  91  72  92 /  50  30  50  20  30
CAMDEN      88  71  91  72  91 /  50  40  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   88  72  92  73  93 /  50  40  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301153
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR TERM...NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...TCL/BHM/EET
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME TS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF TS IS LOWER AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS...SO WILL HAVE TO AMEND AS BETTER TIMING
TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE
THRU THE AFTN/EVNG. SW WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...BUT SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
LATER THIS EVENING.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  68  87  71  83 /  80  20  60  60  70
ANNISTON    86  68  88  71  85 /  70  30  50  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  87  71  88  73  86 /  90  20  50  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  89  70  90  74  90 /  90  20  50  40  60
CALERA      87  70  88  72  87 /  90  30  50  50  60
AUBURN      86  69  88  71  87 /  60  40  40  40  60
MONTGOMERY  90  71  91  73  91 /  60  40  40  40  50
TROY        89  70  91  72  90 /  60  50  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301153
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR TERM...NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...TCL/BHM/EET
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME TS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF TS IS LOWER AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS...SO WILL HAVE TO AMEND AS BETTER TIMING
TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE
THRU THE AFTN/EVNG. SW WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...BUT SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
LATER THIS EVENING.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  68  87  71  83 /  80  20  60  60  70
ANNISTON    86  68  88  71  85 /  70  30  50  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  87  71  88  73  86 /  90  20  50  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  89  70  90  74  90 /  90  20  50  40  60
CALERA      87  70  88  72  87 /  90  30  50  50  60
AUBURN      86  69  88  71  87 /  60  40  40  40  60
MONTGOMERY  90  71  91  73  91 /  60  40  40  40  50
TROY        89  70  91  72  90 /  60  50  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301153
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR TERM...NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...TCL/BHM/EET
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME TS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF TS IS LOWER AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS...SO WILL HAVE TO AMEND AS BETTER TIMING
TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE
THRU THE AFTN/EVNG. SW WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...BUT SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
LATER THIS EVENING.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  68  87  71  83 /  80  20  60  60  70
ANNISTON    86  68  88  71  85 /  70  30  50  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  87  71  88  73  86 /  90  20  50  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  89  70  90  74  90 /  90  20  50  40  60
CALERA      87  70  88  72  87 /  90  30  50  50  60
AUBURN      86  69  88  71  87 /  60  40  40  40  60
MONTGOMERY  90  71  91  73  91 /  60  40  40  40  50
TROY        89  70  91  72  90 /  60  50  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301153
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR TERM...NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...TCL/BHM/EET
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME TS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF TS IS LOWER AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS...SO WILL HAVE TO AMEND AS BETTER TIMING
TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE
THRU THE AFTN/EVNG. SW WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...BUT SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
LATER THIS EVENING.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  68  87  71  83 /  80  20  60  60  70
ANNISTON    86  68  88  71  85 /  70  30  50  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  87  71  88  73  86 /  90  20  50  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  89  70  90  74  90 /  90  20  50  40  60
CALERA      87  70  88  72  87 /  90  30  50  50  60
AUBURN      86  69  88  71  87 /  60  40  40  40  60
MONTGOMERY  90  71  91  73  91 /  60  40  40  40  50
TROY        89  70  91  72  90 /  60  50  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301146 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD
INTO NRN MS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EWD THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL...AND IS SHOWING LITTLE SIGN
OF WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. THESE STORMS MAY VERY
WELL MOVE INTO THE HSV METRO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE WEAKENING/MOVING OFF TO THE E...PROVIDED THEY
SOMEWHAT HOLD TOGETHER. THIS IS JUST THE FIRST ROUND/WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS XPCTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID PLAINS
STATES. WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...MULTIPLE WAVES ROTATING ALONG THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PUSH THE SFC BOUNDARY A BIT CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SECOND/STRONGER OF THE THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LATENT ENERGY OR
BUOYANCY INCREASING COUPLED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INFLOW IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE AND THE FREEZING LEVEL FALLING BELOW 10K FT...THE THREAT IS
DEFINITELY THERE FOR SOME STRONG/LOCALIZED SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO TAPER
OFF TO THE S/E DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK TO IMPROVE GOING INTO MID
WEEK. IN FACT...THE LATEST MODEL SUITES REMAIN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES XPCTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STRONGER OF THESE NEXT
UPPER WAVES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE WED INTO THU...AND
WITH FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS INDICATING A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN
ABOVE H3...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL NOT BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN NATURE. STRONG TO PERHAPS EVEN MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS WILL
BE A THREAT EACH DAY INTO THU...WITH THE HIGHER THREATS BEING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY
ALSO BEGIN TO WARRANT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT...MAINLY FOR
CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ROADWAYS.

IN KEEPING WITH THE GLOOMY WX FORECAST...THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
TO DEVIATE MUCH HEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW REGIME. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SFC
ALSO LOOK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND STALL EITHER JUST TO
THE N/INVOF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE
BRIGHT SPOT MAY BE TOWARD DAY 7 WHERE THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK COLD
FRONT POSSIBLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA SWD...THEREBY HELPING
TO OFFSET THIS UNSEASONABLY WET PERIOD. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND STAYS
FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS INTERACTING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPO VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301146 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD
INTO NRN MS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EWD THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL...AND IS SHOWING LITTLE SIGN
OF WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. THESE STORMS MAY VERY
WELL MOVE INTO THE HSV METRO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE WEAKENING/MOVING OFF TO THE E...PROVIDED THEY
SOMEWHAT HOLD TOGETHER. THIS IS JUST THE FIRST ROUND/WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS XPCTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID PLAINS
STATES. WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...MULTIPLE WAVES ROTATING ALONG THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PUSH THE SFC BOUNDARY A BIT CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SECOND/STRONGER OF THE THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LATENT ENERGY OR
BUOYANCY INCREASING COUPLED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INFLOW IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE AND THE FREEZING LEVEL FALLING BELOW 10K FT...THE THREAT IS
DEFINITELY THERE FOR SOME STRONG/LOCALIZED SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO TAPER
OFF TO THE S/E DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK TO IMPROVE GOING INTO MID
WEEK. IN FACT...THE LATEST MODEL SUITES REMAIN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES XPCTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STRONGER OF THESE NEXT
UPPER WAVES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE WED INTO THU...AND
WITH FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS INDICATING A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN
ABOVE H3...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL NOT BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN NATURE. STRONG TO PERHAPS EVEN MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS WILL
BE A THREAT EACH DAY INTO THU...WITH THE HIGHER THREATS BEING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY
ALSO BEGIN TO WARRANT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT...MAINLY FOR
CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ROADWAYS.

IN KEEPING WITH THE GLOOMY WX FORECAST...THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
TO DEVIATE MUCH HEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW REGIME. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SFC
ALSO LOOK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND STALL EITHER JUST TO
THE N/INVOF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE
BRIGHT SPOT MAY BE TOWARD DAY 7 WHERE THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK COLD
FRONT POSSIBLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA SWD...THEREBY HELPING
TO OFFSET THIS UNSEASONABLY WET PERIOD. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND STAYS
FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS INTERACTING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPO VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301146 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD
INTO NRN MS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EWD THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL...AND IS SHOWING LITTLE SIGN
OF WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. THESE STORMS MAY VERY
WELL MOVE INTO THE HSV METRO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE WEAKENING/MOVING OFF TO THE E...PROVIDED THEY
SOMEWHAT HOLD TOGETHER. THIS IS JUST THE FIRST ROUND/WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS XPCTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID PLAINS
STATES. WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...MULTIPLE WAVES ROTATING ALONG THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PUSH THE SFC BOUNDARY A BIT CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SECOND/STRONGER OF THE THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LATENT ENERGY OR
BUOYANCY INCREASING COUPLED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INFLOW IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE AND THE FREEZING LEVEL FALLING BELOW 10K FT...THE THREAT IS
DEFINITELY THERE FOR SOME STRONG/LOCALIZED SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO TAPER
OFF TO THE S/E DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK TO IMPROVE GOING INTO MID
WEEK. IN FACT...THE LATEST MODEL SUITES REMAIN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES XPCTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STRONGER OF THESE NEXT
UPPER WAVES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE WED INTO THU...AND
WITH FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS INDICATING A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN
ABOVE H3...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL NOT BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN NATURE. STRONG TO PERHAPS EVEN MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS WILL
BE A THREAT EACH DAY INTO THU...WITH THE HIGHER THREATS BEING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY
ALSO BEGIN TO WARRANT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT...MAINLY FOR
CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ROADWAYS.

IN KEEPING WITH THE GLOOMY WX FORECAST...THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
TO DEVIATE MUCH HEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW REGIME. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SFC
ALSO LOOK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND STALL EITHER JUST TO
THE N/INVOF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE
BRIGHT SPOT MAY BE TOWARD DAY 7 WHERE THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK COLD
FRONT POSSIBLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA SWD...THEREBY HELPING
TO OFFSET THIS UNSEASONABLY WET PERIOD. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND STAYS
FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS INTERACTING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPO VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 301146 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD
INTO NRN MS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EWD THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL...AND IS SHOWING LITTLE SIGN
OF WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. THESE STORMS MAY VERY
WELL MOVE INTO THE HSV METRO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE WEAKENING/MOVING OFF TO THE E...PROVIDED THEY
SOMEWHAT HOLD TOGETHER. THIS IS JUST THE FIRST ROUND/WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS XPCTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID PLAINS
STATES. WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...MULTIPLE WAVES ROTATING ALONG THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PUSH THE SFC BOUNDARY A BIT CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SECOND/STRONGER OF THE THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LATENT ENERGY OR
BUOYANCY INCREASING COUPLED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INFLOW IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE AND THE FREEZING LEVEL FALLING BELOW 10K FT...THE THREAT IS
DEFINITELY THERE FOR SOME STRONG/LOCALIZED SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO TAPER
OFF TO THE S/E DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK TO IMPROVE GOING INTO MID
WEEK. IN FACT...THE LATEST MODEL SUITES REMAIN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES XPCTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STRONGER OF THESE NEXT
UPPER WAVES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE WED INTO THU...AND
WITH FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS INDICATING A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN
ABOVE H3...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL NOT BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN NATURE. STRONG TO PERHAPS EVEN MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS WILL
BE A THREAT EACH DAY INTO THU...WITH THE HIGHER THREATS BEING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY
ALSO BEGIN TO WARRANT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT...MAINLY FOR
CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ROADWAYS.

IN KEEPING WITH THE GLOOMY WX FORECAST...THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
TO DEVIATE MUCH HEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW REGIME. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SFC
ALSO LOOK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND STALL EITHER JUST TO
THE N/INVOF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE
BRIGHT SPOT MAY BE TOWARD DAY 7 WHERE THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK COLD
FRONT POSSIBLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA SWD...THEREBY HELPING
TO OFFSET THIS UNSEASONABLY WET PERIOD. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND STAYS
FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS INTERACTING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPO VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301059
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR
IN THE 10Z TO 12Z TIME RANGE. INTRODUCED VCTS TO NORTHERN TAF
SITES BEFORE 12Z AND KEPT VCTS IN FORECAST THRU MID AFTERNOON.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS LINEAR AND MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF
PULLS OUT. SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
BEFORE 12Z...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL LIKELY KEEP CIGS ABOVE 3000
FEET AGL. LIGHTER WINDS AT KTOI MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...BUT MAINLY ABOVE 3 MILES DUE TO HIGHER WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&


.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 301059
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR
IN THE 10Z TO 12Z TIME RANGE. INTRODUCED VCTS TO NORTHERN TAF
SITES BEFORE 12Z AND KEPT VCTS IN FORECAST THRU MID AFTERNOON.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS LINEAR AND MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF
PULLS OUT. SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
BEFORE 12Z...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL LIKELY KEEP CIGS ABOVE 3000
FEET AGL. LIGHTER WINDS AT KTOI MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...BUT MAINLY ABOVE 3 MILES DUE TO HIGHER WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&


.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301059
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR
IN THE 10Z TO 12Z TIME RANGE. INTRODUCED VCTS TO NORTHERN TAF
SITES BEFORE 12Z AND KEPT VCTS IN FORECAST THRU MID AFTERNOON.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS LINEAR AND MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF
PULLS OUT. SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
BEFORE 12Z...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL LIKELY KEEP CIGS ABOVE 3000
FEET AGL. LIGHTER WINDS AT KTOI MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...BUT MAINLY ABOVE 3 MILES DUE TO HIGHER WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&


.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300943
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
443 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DIGGING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING DOWN FROM
THE ARLATX REGION THIS MORNING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OR FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADING TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS LOCALLY ENHANCING THE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS
LOCALLY FOR A FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RANGING FROM 6.8 TO 7.3 C/KM AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
PLACES MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO A MORE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THIS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV/ECS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES MOSTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN MOSTLY
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV MOS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS
AND THE LOWER 90S GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MLCAPE...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THAT OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WE WILL
AT LEAST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH. WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ENHANCED WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY LIFT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE GULF ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. WHILE ISOLATED DAILY CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY RISE TO AROUND 100 LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
01.12Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW INCREASING TO 10 TO 13
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BECOMING SSW AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL
FORCING AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL IN THE 3 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK SUBSIDING TO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  90  74  92 /  50  30  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  76  89  77  91 /  50  30  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  78  90 /  40  40  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  91  72  93 /  50  40  40  20  40
WAYNESBORO  87  71  91  72  92 /  50  30  50  20  30
CAMDEN      88  71  91  72  91 /  50  40  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   88  72  92  73  93 /  50  40  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300943
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
443 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DIGGING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING DOWN FROM
THE ARLATX REGION THIS MORNING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OR FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADING TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS LOCALLY ENHANCING THE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS
LOCALLY FOR A FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RANGING FROM 6.8 TO 7.3 C/KM AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
PLACES MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO A MORE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THIS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV/ECS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES MOSTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN MOSTLY
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV MOS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS
AND THE LOWER 90S GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MLCAPE...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THAT OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WE WILL
AT LEAST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH. WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ENHANCED WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY LIFT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE GULF ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. WHILE ISOLATED DAILY CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY RISE TO AROUND 100 LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
01.12Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW INCREASING TO 10 TO 13
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BECOMING SSW AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL
FORCING AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL IN THE 3 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK SUBSIDING TO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  90  74  92 /  50  30  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  76  89  77  91 /  50  30  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  78  90 /  40  40  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  91  72  93 /  50  40  40  20  40
WAYNESBORO  87  71  91  72  92 /  50  30  50  20  30
CAMDEN      88  71  91  72  91 /  50  40  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   88  72  92  73  93 /  50  40  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300901
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
401 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD
INTO NRN MS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EWD THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL...AND IS SHOWING LITTLE SIGN
OF WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. THESE STORMS MAY VERY
WELL MOVE INTO THE HSV METRO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE WEAKENING/MOVING OFF TO THE E...PROVIDED THEY
SOMEWHAT HOLD TOGETHER. THIS IS JUST THE FIRST ROUND/WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS XPCTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID PLAINS
STATES. WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...MULTIPLE WAVES ROTATING ALONG THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PUSH THE SFC BOUNDARY A BIT CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SECOND/STRONGER OF THE THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LATENT ENERGY OR
BUOYANCY INCREASING COUPLED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INFLOW IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE AND THE FREEZING LEVEL FALLING BELOW 10K FT...THE THREAT IS
DEFINITELY THERE FOR SOME STRONG/LOCALIZED SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO TAPER
OFF TO THE S/E DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK TO IMPROVE GOING INTO MID
WEEK. IN FACT...THE LATEST MODEL SUITES REMAIN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES XPCTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STRONGER OF THESE NEXT
UPPER WAVES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE WED INTO THU...AND
WITH FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS INDICATING A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN
ABOVE H3...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL NOT BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN NATURE. STRONG TO PERHAPS EVEN MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS WILL
BE A THREAT EACH DAY INTO THU...WITH THE HIGHER THREATS BEING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY
ALSO BEGIN TO WARRANT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT...MAINLY FOR
CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ROADWAYS.

IN KEEPING WITH THE GLOOMY WX FORECAST...THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
TO DEVIATE MUCH HEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW REGIME. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SFC
ALSO LOOK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND STALL EITHER JUST TO
THE N/INVOF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE
BRIGHT SPOT MAY BE TOWARD DAY 7 WHERE THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK COLD
FRONT POSSIBLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA SWD...THEREBY HELPING
TO OFFSET THIS UNSEASONABLY WET PERIOD. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND STAYS
FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM
AND HAVE ADDED IN A VCTS FOR MSL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF AND
AROUND 09Z FOR HSV. WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARD MSL BY AROUND 09Z...HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM TSRA MENTION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE FROM
17Z- 21Z AT BOTH HSV AND MSL AND WILL SLOWLY END PRECIP BY AROUND
23Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    90  69  88  71 /  50  20  60  60
SHOALS        90  69  89  72 /  50  20  60  60
VINEMONT      87  67  86  70 /  50  20  60  60
FAYETTEVILLE  86  66  85  69 /  50  20  60  60
ALBERTVILLE   87  68  83  70 /  50  20  60  60
FORT PAYNE    87  66  85  69 /  50  20  60  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300901
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
401 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD
INTO NRN MS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EWD THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL...AND IS SHOWING LITTLE SIGN
OF WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. THESE STORMS MAY VERY
WELL MOVE INTO THE HSV METRO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE WEAKENING/MOVING OFF TO THE E...PROVIDED THEY
SOMEWHAT HOLD TOGETHER. THIS IS JUST THE FIRST ROUND/WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS XPCTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID PLAINS
STATES. WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...MULTIPLE WAVES ROTATING ALONG THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PUSH THE SFC BOUNDARY A BIT CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SECOND/STRONGER OF THE THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LATENT ENERGY OR
BUOYANCY INCREASING COUPLED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INFLOW IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE AND THE FREEZING LEVEL FALLING BELOW 10K FT...THE THREAT IS
DEFINITELY THERE FOR SOME STRONG/LOCALIZED SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO TAPER
OFF TO THE S/E DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK TO IMPROVE GOING INTO MID
WEEK. IN FACT...THE LATEST MODEL SUITES REMAIN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES XPCTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STRONGER OF THESE NEXT
UPPER WAVES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE WED INTO THU...AND
WITH FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS INDICATING A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN
ABOVE H3...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL NOT BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN NATURE. STRONG TO PERHAPS EVEN MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS WILL
BE A THREAT EACH DAY INTO THU...WITH THE HIGHER THREATS BEING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY
ALSO BEGIN TO WARRANT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT...MAINLY FOR
CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ROADWAYS.

IN KEEPING WITH THE GLOOMY WX FORECAST...THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
TO DEVIATE MUCH HEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW REGIME. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SFC
ALSO LOOK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND STALL EITHER JUST TO
THE N/INVOF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE
BRIGHT SPOT MAY BE TOWARD DAY 7 WHERE THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK COLD
FRONT POSSIBLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA SWD...THEREBY HELPING
TO OFFSET THIS UNSEASONABLY WET PERIOD. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND STAYS
FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM
AND HAVE ADDED IN A VCTS FOR MSL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF AND
AROUND 09Z FOR HSV. WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARD MSL BY AROUND 09Z...HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM TSRA MENTION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE FROM
17Z- 21Z AT BOTH HSV AND MSL AND WILL SLOWLY END PRECIP BY AROUND
23Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    90  69  88  71 /  50  20  60  60
SHOALS        90  69  89  72 /  50  20  60  60
VINEMONT      87  67  86  70 /  50  20  60  60
FAYETTEVILLE  86  66  85  69 /  50  20  60  60
ALBERTVILLE   87  68  83  70 /  50  20  60  60
FORT PAYNE    87  66  85  69 /  50  20  60  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300901
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
401 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD
INTO NRN MS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EWD THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL...AND IS SHOWING LITTLE SIGN
OF WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. THESE STORMS MAY VERY
WELL MOVE INTO THE HSV METRO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE WEAKENING/MOVING OFF TO THE E...PROVIDED THEY
SOMEWHAT HOLD TOGETHER. THIS IS JUST THE FIRST ROUND/WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS XPCTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID PLAINS
STATES. WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...MULTIPLE WAVES ROTATING ALONG THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PUSH THE SFC BOUNDARY A BIT CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SECOND/STRONGER OF THE THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LATENT ENERGY OR
BUOYANCY INCREASING COUPLED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INFLOW IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE AND THE FREEZING LEVEL FALLING BELOW 10K FT...THE THREAT IS
DEFINITELY THERE FOR SOME STRONG/LOCALIZED SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO TAPER
OFF TO THE S/E DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK TO IMPROVE GOING INTO MID
WEEK. IN FACT...THE LATEST MODEL SUITES REMAIN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES XPCTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STRONGER OF THESE NEXT
UPPER WAVES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE WED INTO THU...AND
WITH FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS INDICATING A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN
ABOVE H3...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL NOT BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN NATURE. STRONG TO PERHAPS EVEN MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS WILL
BE A THREAT EACH DAY INTO THU...WITH THE HIGHER THREATS BEING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY
ALSO BEGIN TO WARRANT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT...MAINLY FOR
CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ROADWAYS.

IN KEEPING WITH THE GLOOMY WX FORECAST...THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
TO DEVIATE MUCH HEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW REGIME. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SFC
ALSO LOOK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND STALL EITHER JUST TO
THE N/INVOF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE
BRIGHT SPOT MAY BE TOWARD DAY 7 WHERE THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK COLD
FRONT POSSIBLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA SWD...THEREBY HELPING
TO OFFSET THIS UNSEASONABLY WET PERIOD. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND STAYS
FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM
AND HAVE ADDED IN A VCTS FOR MSL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF AND
AROUND 09Z FOR HSV. WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARD MSL BY AROUND 09Z...HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM TSRA MENTION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE FROM
17Z- 21Z AT BOTH HSV AND MSL AND WILL SLOWLY END PRECIP BY AROUND
23Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    90  69  88  71 /  50  20  60  60
SHOALS        90  69  89  72 /  50  20  60  60
VINEMONT      87  67  86  70 /  50  20  60  60
FAYETTEVILLE  86  66  85  69 /  50  20  60  60
ALBERTVILLE   87  68  83  70 /  50  20  60  60
FORT PAYNE    87  66  85  69 /  50  20  60  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300901
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
401 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD
INTO NRN MS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EWD THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL...AND IS SHOWING LITTLE SIGN
OF WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. THESE STORMS MAY VERY
WELL MOVE INTO THE HSV METRO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE WEAKENING/MOVING OFF TO THE E...PROVIDED THEY
SOMEWHAT HOLD TOGETHER. THIS IS JUST THE FIRST ROUND/WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS XPCTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID PLAINS
STATES. WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...MULTIPLE WAVES ROTATING ALONG THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PUSH THE SFC BOUNDARY A BIT CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SECOND/STRONGER OF THE THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LATENT ENERGY OR
BUOYANCY INCREASING COUPLED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INFLOW IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE AND THE FREEZING LEVEL FALLING BELOW 10K FT...THE THREAT IS
DEFINITELY THERE FOR SOME STRONG/LOCALIZED SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO TAPER
OFF TO THE S/E DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK TO IMPROVE GOING INTO MID
WEEK. IN FACT...THE LATEST MODEL SUITES REMAIN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES XPCTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STRONGER OF THESE NEXT
UPPER WAVES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE WED INTO THU...AND
WITH FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS INDICATING A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN
ABOVE H3...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL NOT BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN NATURE. STRONG TO PERHAPS EVEN MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS WILL
BE A THREAT EACH DAY INTO THU...WITH THE HIGHER THREATS BEING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY
ALSO BEGIN TO WARRANT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT...MAINLY FOR
CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ROADWAYS.

IN KEEPING WITH THE GLOOMY WX FORECAST...THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
TO DEVIATE MUCH HEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW REGIME. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SFC
ALSO LOOK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND STALL EITHER JUST TO
THE N/INVOF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE
BRIGHT SPOT MAY BE TOWARD DAY 7 WHERE THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK COLD
FRONT POSSIBLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA SWD...THEREBY HELPING
TO OFFSET THIS UNSEASONABLY WET PERIOD. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND STAYS
FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM
AND HAVE ADDED IN A VCTS FOR MSL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF AND
AROUND 09Z FOR HSV. WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARD MSL BY AROUND 09Z...HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM TSRA MENTION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE FROM
17Z- 21Z AT BOTH HSV AND MSL AND WILL SLOWLY END PRECIP BY AROUND
23Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    90  69  88  71 /  50  20  60  60
SHOALS        90  69  89  72 /  50  20  60  60
VINEMONT      87  67  86  70 /  50  20  60  60
FAYETTEVILLE  86  66  85  69 /  50  20  60  60
ALBERTVILLE   87  68  83  70 /  50  20  60  60
FORT PAYNE    87  66  85  69 /  50  20  60  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300808
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING IN AND THEN KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
WAS HELPING TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIFTED INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH A LULL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS CONDITIONS WARM AND
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS
REMAIN JUSTIFIED FOR A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES (AND ASSOCIATED STORMY WEATHER) BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROBLEMATIC. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING TIMES.

THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR
IN THE 10Z TO 12Z TIME RANGE. INTRODUCED VCTS TO NORTHERN TAF
SITES BEFORE 12Z AND KEPT VCTS IN FORECAST THRU MID AFTERNOON.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS LINEAR AND MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF
PULLS OUT. SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
BEFORE 12Z...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL LIKELY KEEP CIGS ABOVE 3000
FEET AGL. LIGHTER WINDS AT KTOI MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...BUT MAINLY ABOVE 3 MILES DUE TO HIGHER WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  68  87  71  83 /  70  20  60  60  70
ANNISTON    86  68  88  71  85 /  70  30  50  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  87  71  88  73  86 /  70  20  50  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  89  70  90  74  90 /  70  20  50  40  60
CALERA      87  70  88  72  87 /  70  30  50  50  60
AUBURN      86  69  88  71  87 /  50  40  40  40  60
MONTGOMERY  90  71  91  73  91 /  50  40  40  40  50
TROY        89  70  91  72  90 /  50  50  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300504 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 932 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
AT 02Z...THE WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE BOUNDARY WAS FURTHER INDICATED
TO BE LOCATED MAINLY NORTH OF OHX BASED UPON THE ORIENTATION OF THE
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A SEPARATE AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA CLOSE TO THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER HAD JUST ABOUT
DISSIPATED...AS IT WAS NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXPECT THE SCATTERED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE TOWARD SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ACCEPTABLE. WILL BE UPDATING
THE FORECAST SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM
AND HAVE ADDED IN A VCTS FOR MSL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF AND
AROUND 09Z FOR HSV. WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARD MSL BY AROUND 09Z...HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM TSRA MENTION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE FROM
17Z- 21Z AT BOTH HSV AND MSL AND WILL SLOWLY END PRECIP BY AROUND
23Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300504 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 932 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
AT 02Z...THE WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE BOUNDARY WAS FURTHER INDICATED
TO BE LOCATED MAINLY NORTH OF OHX BASED UPON THE ORIENTATION OF THE
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A SEPARATE AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA CLOSE TO THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER HAD JUST ABOUT
DISSIPATED...AS IT WAS NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXPECT THE SCATTERED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE TOWARD SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ACCEPTABLE. WILL BE UPDATING
THE FORECAST SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM
AND HAVE ADDED IN A VCTS FOR MSL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF AND
AROUND 09Z FOR HSV. WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARD MSL BY AROUND 09Z...HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM TSRA MENTION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE FROM
17Z- 21Z AT BOTH HSV AND MSL AND WILL SLOWLY END PRECIP BY AROUND
23Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300504 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 932 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
AT 02Z...THE WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE BOUNDARY WAS FURTHER INDICATED
TO BE LOCATED MAINLY NORTH OF OHX BASED UPON THE ORIENTATION OF THE
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A SEPARATE AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA CLOSE TO THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER HAD JUST ABOUT
DISSIPATED...AS IT WAS NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXPECT THE SCATTERED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE TOWARD SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ACCEPTABLE. WILL BE UPDATING
THE FORECAST SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM
AND HAVE ADDED IN A VCTS FOR MSL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF AND
AROUND 09Z FOR HSV. WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARD MSL BY AROUND 09Z...HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM TSRA MENTION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE FROM
17Z- 21Z AT BOTH HSV AND MSL AND WILL SLOWLY END PRECIP BY AROUND
23Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300504 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 932 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
AT 02Z...THE WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE BOUNDARY WAS FURTHER INDICATED
TO BE LOCATED MAINLY NORTH OF OHX BASED UPON THE ORIENTATION OF THE
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A SEPARATE AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA CLOSE TO THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER HAD JUST ABOUT
DISSIPATED...AS IT WAS NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXPECT THE SCATTERED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE TOWARD SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ACCEPTABLE. WILL BE UPDATING
THE FORECAST SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM
AND HAVE ADDED IN A VCTS FOR MSL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF AND
AROUND 09Z FOR HSV. WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARD MSL BY AROUND 09Z...HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM TSRA MENTION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE FROM
17Z- 21Z AT BOTH HSV AND MSL AND WILL SLOWLY END PRECIP BY AROUND
23Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300501
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR
IN THE 10Z TO 12Z TIME RANGE. INTRODUCED VCTS TO NORTHERN TAF
SITES BEFORE 12Z AND KEPT VCTS IN FORECAST THRU MID AFTERNOON.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS LINEAR AND MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF
PULLS OUT. SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
BEFORE 12Z...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL LIKELY KEEP CIGS ABOVE 3000
FEET AGL. LIGHTER WINDS AT KTOI MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...BUT MAINLY ABOVE 3 MILES DUE TO HIGHER WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  87  68  87  70 /  40  70  40  50  60
ANNISTON    68  86  68  87  70 /  30  70  40  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  88  72 /  30  70  30  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  89  73 /  30  70  30  50  40
CALERA      70  85  70  88  72 /  20  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      69  86  69  87  71 /  20  50  40  50  40
MONTGOMERY  71  90  71  91  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
TROY        70  90  70  90  72 /  20  50  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 300501
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR
IN THE 10Z TO 12Z TIME RANGE. INTRODUCED VCTS TO NORTHERN TAF
SITES BEFORE 12Z AND KEPT VCTS IN FORECAST THRU MID AFTERNOON.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS LINEAR AND MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF
PULLS OUT. SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
BEFORE 12Z...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL LIKELY KEEP CIGS ABOVE 3000
FEET AGL. LIGHTER WINDS AT KTOI MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...BUT MAINLY ABOVE 3 MILES DUE TO HIGHER WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  87  68  87  70 /  40  70  40  50  60
ANNISTON    68  86  68  87  70 /  30  70  40  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  88  72 /  30  70  30  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  89  73 /  30  70  30  50  40
CALERA      70  85  70  88  72 /  20  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      69  86  69  87  71 /  20  50  40  50  40
MONTGOMERY  71  90  71  91  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
TROY        70  90  70  90  72 /  20  50  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300501
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR
IN THE 10Z TO 12Z TIME RANGE. INTRODUCED VCTS TO NORTHERN TAF
SITES BEFORE 12Z AND KEPT VCTS IN FORECAST THRU MID AFTERNOON.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS LINEAR AND MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF
PULLS OUT. SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
BEFORE 12Z...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL LIKELY KEEP CIGS ABOVE 3000
FEET AGL. LIGHTER WINDS AT KTOI MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...BUT MAINLY ABOVE 3 MILES DUE TO HIGHER WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  87  68  87  70 /  40  70  40  50  60
ANNISTON    68  86  68  87  70 /  30  70  40  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  88  72 /  30  70  30  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  89  73 /  30  70  30  50  40
CALERA      70  85  70  88  72 /  20  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      69  86  69  87  71 /  20  50  40  50  40
MONTGOMERY  71  90  71  91  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
TROY        70  90  70  90  72 /  20  50  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300501
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR
IN THE 10Z TO 12Z TIME RANGE. INTRODUCED VCTS TO NORTHERN TAF
SITES BEFORE 12Z AND KEPT VCTS IN FORECAST THRU MID AFTERNOON.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS LINEAR AND MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF
PULLS OUT. SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
BEFORE 12Z...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL LIKELY KEEP CIGS ABOVE 3000
FEET AGL. LIGHTER WINDS AT KTOI MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...BUT MAINLY ABOVE 3 MILES DUE TO HIGHER WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  87  68  87  70 /  40  70  40  50  60
ANNISTON    68  86  68  87  70 /  30  70  40  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  88  72 /  30  70  30  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  89  73 /  30  70  30  50  40
CALERA      70  85  70  88  72 /  20  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      69  86  69  87  71 /  20  50  40  50  40
MONTGOMERY  71  90  71  91  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
TROY        70  90  70  90  72 /  20  50  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROF
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES ARE PRESENT...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING
NEAR 1.8 INCHES FOR TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90. WITH THESE DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2500-3000 ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY LOW WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF
60-100 M2/S2 BUT EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS INITIATED BY PRECIPITATION LOADING. BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. /29

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

[TUESDAY NIGHT]...REMNANT FRONT AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S
INLAND...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS BROADENS OUT QUITE A BIT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP MUCH OF THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MID
WEEK...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL START TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THERE IS NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES AND COASTLINE. 07/MB

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PREDOMINATELY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING LIGHT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  72  90  75 /  30  50  30  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  90  75  89  76 /  30  50  30  30  30
DESTIN      78  90  77  89  78 /  30  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  90  70  91  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  70  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
CAMDEN      72  89  69  91  72 /  20  50  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROF
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES ARE PRESENT...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING
NEAR 1.8 INCHES FOR TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90. WITH THESE DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2500-3000 ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY LOW WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF
60-100 M2/S2 BUT EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS INITIATED BY PRECIPITATION LOADING. BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. /29

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

[TUESDAY NIGHT]...REMNANT FRONT AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S
INLAND...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS BROADENS OUT QUITE A BIT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP MUCH OF THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MID
WEEK...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL START TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THERE IS NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES AND COASTLINE. 07/MB

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PREDOMINATELY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING LIGHT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  72  90  75 /  30  50  30  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  90  75  89  76 /  30  50  30  30  30
DESTIN      78  90  77  89  78 /  30  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  90  70  91  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  70  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
CAMDEN      72  89  69  91  72 /  20  50  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROF
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES ARE PRESENT...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING
NEAR 1.8 INCHES FOR TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90. WITH THESE DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2500-3000 ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY LOW WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF
60-100 M2/S2 BUT EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS INITIATED BY PRECIPITATION LOADING. BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. /29

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

[TUESDAY NIGHT]...REMNANT FRONT AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S
INLAND...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS BROADENS OUT QUITE A BIT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP MUCH OF THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MID
WEEK...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL START TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THERE IS NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES AND COASTLINE. 07/MB

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PREDOMINATELY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING LIGHT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  72  90  75 /  30  50  30  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  90  75  89  76 /  30  50  30  30  30
DESTIN      78  90  77  89  78 /  30  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  90  70  91  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  70  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
CAMDEN      72  89  69  91  72 /  20  50  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROF
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES ARE PRESENT...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING
NEAR 1.8 INCHES FOR TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90. WITH THESE DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2500-3000 ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY LOW WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF
60-100 M2/S2 BUT EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS INITIATED BY PRECIPITATION LOADING. BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. /29

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

[TUESDAY NIGHT]...REMNANT FRONT AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S
INLAND...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS BROADENS OUT QUITE A BIT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP MUCH OF THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MID
WEEK...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL START TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THERE IS NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES AND COASTLINE. 07/MB

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PREDOMINATELY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING LIGHT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  72  90  75 /  30  50  30  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  90  75  89  76 /  30  50  30  30  30
DESTIN      78  90  77  89  78 /  30  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  90  70  91  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  70  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
CAMDEN      72  89  69  91  72 /  20  50  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROF
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES ARE PRESENT...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING
NEAR 1.8 INCHES FOR TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90. WITH THESE DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2500-3000 ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY LOW WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF
60-100 M2/S2 BUT EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS INITIATED BY PRECIPITATION LOADING. BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. /29

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

[TUESDAY NIGHT]...REMNANT FRONT AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S
INLAND...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS BROADENS OUT QUITE A BIT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP MUCH OF THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MID
WEEK...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL START TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THERE IS NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES AND COASTLINE. 07/MB

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PREDOMINATELY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING LIGHT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  72  90  75 /  30  50  30  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  90  75  89  76 /  30  50  30  30  30
DESTIN      78  90  77  89  78 /  30  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  90  70  91  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  70  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
CAMDEN      72  89  69  91  72 /  20  50  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROF
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES ARE PRESENT...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING
NEAR 1.8 INCHES FOR TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90. WITH THESE DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2500-3000 ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY LOW WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF
60-100 M2/S2 BUT EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS INITIATED BY PRECIPITATION LOADING. BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. /29

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

[TUESDAY NIGHT]...REMNANT FRONT AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S
INLAND...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS BROADENS OUT QUITE A BIT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP MUCH OF THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MID
WEEK...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL START TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THERE IS NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES AND COASTLINE. 07/MB

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PREDOMINATELY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING LIGHT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  72  90  75 /  30  50  30  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  90  75  89  76 /  30  50  30  30  30
DESTIN      78  90  77  89  78 /  30  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  90  70  91  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  70  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
CAMDEN      72  89  69  91  72 /  20  50  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROF
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES ARE PRESENT...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING
NEAR 1.8 INCHES FOR TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90. WITH THESE DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2500-3000 ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY LOW WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF
60-100 M2/S2 BUT EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS INITIATED BY PRECIPITATION LOADING. BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. /29

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

[TUESDAY NIGHT]...REMNANT FRONT AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S
INLAND...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS BROADENS OUT QUITE A BIT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP MUCH OF THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MID
WEEK...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL START TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THERE IS NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES AND COASTLINE. 07/MB

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PREDOMINATELY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING LIGHT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  72  90  75 /  30  50  30  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  90  75  89  76 /  30  50  30  30  30
DESTIN      78  90  77  89  78 /  30  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  90  70  91  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  70  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
CAMDEN      72  89  69  91  72 /  20  50  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROF
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES ARE PRESENT...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING
NEAR 1.8 INCHES FOR TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90. WITH THESE DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2500-3000 ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY LOW WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF
60-100 M2/S2 BUT EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS INITIATED BY PRECIPITATION LOADING. BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. /29

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

[TUESDAY NIGHT]...REMNANT FRONT AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S
INLAND...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS BROADENS OUT QUITE A BIT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP MUCH OF THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MID
WEEK...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL START TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THERE IS NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES AND COASTLINE. 07/MB

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PREDOMINATELY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING LIGHT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  72  90  75 /  30  50  30  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  90  75  89  76 /  30  50  30  30  30
DESTIN      78  90  77  89  78 /  30  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  90  70  91  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  70  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
CAMDEN      72  89  69  91  72 /  20  50  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300232 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
932 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...THE WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE BOUNDARY WAS FURTHER INDICATED
TO BE LOCATED MAINLY NORTH OF OHX BASED UPON THE ORIENTATION OF THE
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A SEPARATE AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA CLOSE TO THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER HAD JUST ABOUT
DISSIPATED...AS IT WAS NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXPECT THE SCATTERED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE TOWARD SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ACCEPTABLE. WILL BE UPDATING
THE FORECAST SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
SW WINDS WILL KEEP GUSTING TO ~20 KTS THROUGH 30/02Z. A VCTS WAS
INCLUDED AT KMSL DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING/SLOWLY MOVING
SE IN SOUTHERN TN BETWEEN 30/02Z AND 30/03Z. FURTHER EAST...BELIEVE
THEY WILL FALL APART IN A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...SO LEFT OUT OF KHSV.
AT THIS TIME...NOT LOWERING CIGS BELOW VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE
CHANGED IF RADAR TRENDS WARRANT. OTHERWISE...PUT IN ANOTHER VCTS AND
LOWERED CIGS AT 30/08Z AT KMSL AND 30/09Z AT KHSV THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS
THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO N AL. INCLUDED A WIND SHIFT MORE TO THE W
ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 30/15Z...AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF -TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 20/21Z AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300232 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
932 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...THE WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE BOUNDARY WAS FURTHER INDICATED
TO BE LOCATED MAINLY NORTH OF OHX BASED UPON THE ORIENTATION OF THE
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A SEPARATE AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA CLOSE TO THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER HAD JUST ABOUT
DISSIPATED...AS IT WAS NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXPECT THE SCATTERED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE TOWARD SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ACCEPTABLE. WILL BE UPDATING
THE FORECAST SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
SW WINDS WILL KEEP GUSTING TO ~20 KTS THROUGH 30/02Z. A VCTS WAS
INCLUDED AT KMSL DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING/SLOWLY MOVING
SE IN SOUTHERN TN BETWEEN 30/02Z AND 30/03Z. FURTHER EAST...BELIEVE
THEY WILL FALL APART IN A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...SO LEFT OUT OF KHSV.
AT THIS TIME...NOT LOWERING CIGS BELOW VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE
CHANGED IF RADAR TRENDS WARRANT. OTHERWISE...PUT IN ANOTHER VCTS AND
LOWERED CIGS AT 30/08Z AT KMSL AND 30/09Z AT KHSV THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS
THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO N AL. INCLUDED A WIND SHIFT MORE TO THE W
ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 30/15Z...AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF -TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 20/21Z AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300232 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
932 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...THE WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE BOUNDARY WAS FURTHER INDICATED
TO BE LOCATED MAINLY NORTH OF OHX BASED UPON THE ORIENTATION OF THE
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A SEPARATE AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA CLOSE TO THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER HAD JUST ABOUT
DISSIPATED...AS IT WAS NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXPECT THE SCATTERED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE TOWARD SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ACCEPTABLE. WILL BE UPDATING
THE FORECAST SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
SW WINDS WILL KEEP GUSTING TO ~20 KTS THROUGH 30/02Z. A VCTS WAS
INCLUDED AT KMSL DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING/SLOWLY MOVING
SE IN SOUTHERN TN BETWEEN 30/02Z AND 30/03Z. FURTHER EAST...BELIEVE
THEY WILL FALL APART IN A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...SO LEFT OUT OF KHSV.
AT THIS TIME...NOT LOWERING CIGS BELOW VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE
CHANGED IF RADAR TRENDS WARRANT. OTHERWISE...PUT IN ANOTHER VCTS AND
LOWERED CIGS AT 30/08Z AT KMSL AND 30/09Z AT KHSV THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS
THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO N AL. INCLUDED A WIND SHIFT MORE TO THE W
ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 30/15Z...AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF -TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 20/21Z AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300232 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
932 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...THE WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE BOUNDARY WAS FURTHER INDICATED
TO BE LOCATED MAINLY NORTH OF OHX BASED UPON THE ORIENTATION OF THE
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A SEPARATE AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA CLOSE TO THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER HAD JUST ABOUT
DISSIPATED...AS IT WAS NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXPECT THE SCATTERED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE TOWARD SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ACCEPTABLE. WILL BE UPDATING
THE FORECAST SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
SW WINDS WILL KEEP GUSTING TO ~20 KTS THROUGH 30/02Z. A VCTS WAS
INCLUDED AT KMSL DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING/SLOWLY MOVING
SE IN SOUTHERN TN BETWEEN 30/02Z AND 30/03Z. FURTHER EAST...BELIEVE
THEY WILL FALL APART IN A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...SO LEFT OUT OF KHSV.
AT THIS TIME...NOT LOWERING CIGS BELOW VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE
CHANGED IF RADAR TRENDS WARRANT. OTHERWISE...PUT IN ANOTHER VCTS AND
LOWERED CIGS AT 30/08Z AT KMSL AND 30/09Z AT KHSV THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS
THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO N AL. INCLUDED A WIND SHIFT MORE TO THE W
ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 30/15Z...AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF -TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 20/21Z AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
857 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THICK CIRRUS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROF ACROSS TENNESSEE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SCT
SHWRS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20
CORRIDOR BY 10Z...AND INCLUDED VCSH FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES. SCT
TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH TSTMS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. HANDLED WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT KTOI
EXPERIENCED LIFR CIGS AND FOG THIS MORNING...SO FELT THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

58/ROSE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
857 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THICK CIRRUS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROF ACROSS TENNESSEE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SCT
SHWRS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20
CORRIDOR BY 10Z...AND INCLUDED VCSH FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES. SCT
TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH TSTMS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. HANDLED WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT KTOI
EXPERIENCED LIFR CIGS AND FOG THIS MORNING...SO FELT THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

58/ROSE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 300157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
857 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THICK CIRRUS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROF ACROSS TENNESSEE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SCT
SHWRS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20
CORRIDOR BY 10Z...AND INCLUDED VCSH FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES. SCT
TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH TSTMS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. HANDLED WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT KTOI
EXPERIENCED LIFR CIGS AND FOG THIS MORNING...SO FELT THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

58/ROSE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
857 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THICK CIRRUS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROF ACROSS TENNESSEE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SCT
SHWRS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20
CORRIDOR BY 10Z...AND INCLUDED VCSH FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES. SCT
TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH TSTMS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. HANDLED WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT KTOI
EXPERIENCED LIFR CIGS AND FOG THIS MORNING...SO FELT THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

58/ROSE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
857 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THICK CIRRUS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROF ACROSS TENNESSEE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SCT
SHWRS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20
CORRIDOR BY 10Z...AND INCLUDED VCSH FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES. SCT
TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH TSTMS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. HANDLED WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT KTOI
EXPERIENCED LIFR CIGS AND FOG THIS MORNING...SO FELT THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

58/ROSE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
857 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THICK CIRRUS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROF ACROSS TENNESSEE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SCT
SHWRS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20
CORRIDOR BY 10Z...AND INCLUDED VCSH FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES. SCT
TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH TSTMS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. HANDLED WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT KTOI
EXPERIENCED LIFR CIGS AND FOG THIS MORNING...SO FELT THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

58/ROSE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300005 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
705 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
AND DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROF
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES ARE PRESENT...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING
NEAR 1.8 INCHES FOR TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90. WITH THESE DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2500-3000 ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY LOW WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF
60-100 M2/S2 BUT EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS INITIATED BY PRECIPITATION LOADING. BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. /29

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

[TUESDAY NIGHT]...REMNANT FRONT AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S
INLAND...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS BROADENS OUT QUITE A BIT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP MUCH OF THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MID
WEEK...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL START TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THERE IS NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES AND COASTLINE. 07/MB

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PREDOMINATELY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING LIGHT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  72  90  75 /  30  50  30  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  90  75  89  76 /  30  50  30  30  30
DESTIN      78  90  77  89  78 /  30  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  90  70  91  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  70  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
CAMDEN      72  89  69  91  72 /  20  50  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300005 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
705 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
AND DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROF
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES ARE PRESENT...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING
NEAR 1.8 INCHES FOR TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90. WITH THESE DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2500-3000 ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY LOW WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF
60-100 M2/S2 BUT EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS INITIATED BY PRECIPITATION LOADING. BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. /29

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

[TUESDAY NIGHT]...REMNANT FRONT AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S
INLAND...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS BROADENS OUT QUITE A BIT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP MUCH OF THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MID
WEEK...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL START TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THERE IS NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES AND COASTLINE. 07/MB

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PREDOMINATELY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING LIGHT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  72  90  75 /  30  50  30  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  90  75  89  76 /  30  50  30  30  30
DESTIN      78  90  77  89  78 /  30  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  90  70  91  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  70  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
CAMDEN      72  89  69  91  72 /  20  50  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 292347
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST MOISTURE CONFINED ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND TO OUR SOUTH. A SURFACE FRONT WAS MOVING OUR
DIRECTION FROM THE MIDWEST STATES...WITH A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. WE`LL START TO
SEE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BECOME QUITE
UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE COULD BE OBSERVING SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI...MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. WE`LL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF
EACH MCS AS IT TRAVERSES SOUTHEASTWARD...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CAN ALWAYS BRING SURPRISES THIS TIME OF YEAR. MCS ACTIVITY CAN
BUST YOUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WHEN THEY PASS THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...AS WELL AS YOUR FORECAST PRECIPITATION TIMING. THE
COLD POOL BOUNDARY THAT DOMINATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OFTEN
MOVES FASTER AND CAN`T BE RESOLVED WELL BY SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE. IN
OTHER WORDS...IN SOME CASES IT MAY BE MORE OF A NOWCASTING
SITUATION BASED ON THE BEHAVIOR AND MOVEMENT OF EACH MCS AND
MONITORING HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. MCS ACTIVITY USUALLY TENDS TO
PRODUCE HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES...WHICH CAN LEAD TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WE`LL CONTINUE TO NOT HIGHLIGHT ANYTHING IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MCS
ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW. OF COURSE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED...SO MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW THE
FORECAST AND CURRENT CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND WE`LL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY. WE`RE
CERTAINLY NOT CALLING FOR A RAINOUT...BUT FOLKS NEED TO BE
PREPARED FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM WHEN PLANNING THEIR OUTDOOR
EVENTS.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THICK CIRRUS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROF ACROSS TENNESSEE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SCT
SHWRS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20
CORRIDOR BY 10Z...AND INCLUDED VCSH FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES. SCT
TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH TSTMS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. HANDLED WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT KTOI
EXPERIENCED LIFR CIGS AND FOG THIS MORNING...SO FELT THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  87  68  87  70 /  40  70  40  50  60
ANNISTON    68  86  68  87  70 /  30  70  40  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  88  72 /  30  70  30  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  89  73 /  30  70  30  50  40
CALERA      70  85  70  88  72 /  20  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      69  86  69  87  71 /  20  50  40  50  40
MONTGOMERY  71  90  71  91  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
TROY        70  90  70  90  72 /  20  50  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 292347
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST MOISTURE CONFINED ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND TO OUR SOUTH. A SURFACE FRONT WAS MOVING OUR
DIRECTION FROM THE MIDWEST STATES...WITH A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. WE`LL START TO
SEE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BECOME QUITE
UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE COULD BE OBSERVING SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI...MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. WE`LL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF
EACH MCS AS IT TRAVERSES SOUTHEASTWARD...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CAN ALWAYS BRING SURPRISES THIS TIME OF YEAR. MCS ACTIVITY CAN
BUST YOUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WHEN THEY PASS THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...AS WELL AS YOUR FORECAST PRECIPITATION TIMING. THE
COLD POOL BOUNDARY THAT DOMINATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OFTEN
MOVES FASTER AND CAN`T BE RESOLVED WELL BY SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE. IN
OTHER WORDS...IN SOME CASES IT MAY BE MORE OF A NOWCASTING
SITUATION BASED ON THE BEHAVIOR AND MOVEMENT OF EACH MCS AND
MONITORING HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. MCS ACTIVITY USUALLY TENDS TO
PRODUCE HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES...WHICH CAN LEAD TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WE`LL CONTINUE TO NOT HIGHLIGHT ANYTHING IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MCS
ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW. OF COURSE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED...SO MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW THE
FORECAST AND CURRENT CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND WE`LL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY. WE`RE
CERTAINLY NOT CALLING FOR A RAINOUT...BUT FOLKS NEED TO BE
PREPARED FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM WHEN PLANNING THEIR OUTDOOR
EVENTS.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THICK CIRRUS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROF ACROSS TENNESSEE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SCT
SHWRS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20
CORRIDOR BY 10Z...AND INCLUDED VCSH FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES. SCT
TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH TSTMS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. HANDLED WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT KTOI
EXPERIENCED LIFR CIGS AND FOG THIS MORNING...SO FELT THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  87  68  87  70 /  40  70  40  50  60
ANNISTON    68  86  68  87  70 /  30  70  40  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  88  72 /  30  70  30  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  89  73 /  30  70  30  50  40
CALERA      70  85  70  88  72 /  20  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      69  86  69  87  71 /  20  50  40  50  40
MONTGOMERY  71  90  71  91  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
TROY        70  90  70  90  72 /  20  50  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 292327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 211 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
AS OF 2 PM...TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80 UNDER SCT/BKN
CLOUD COVER. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY SHOWING A FEW WEAK ECHOS OVER NE
AL. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND A TROF
ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS A WEAK CDFNT OVER SERN MO
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS CDFNT IS NOT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS WEAK CDFNT COULD KICK
OFF SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH ALL OF
TONIGHT WITH A LOW POP. THE NAM DOES HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN...THUS GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE CHC OF PCPN TO TAPER OFF A LITTLE...BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW CHC POP ACROSS THE CWA.

BY WEDNESDAY GFS SHOWS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLE MCS
THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE TN VALLEY. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE WORK WEEK...THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR NOW.
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS GFS SHOWS A SFC
LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME WX PATTERN (THE CHC OF MORE
SHRA/TSRA) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE SE IN
THE NW UPPER FLOW. BY MONDAY GFS IS HINTING AT RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THE CHC OF PCPN.

BOTTOM LINE...FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY...THIS WILL PUT THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW.
THIS WILL MAKE TIMING OF ANY DISTURBANCES TRICKY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER CHC OF PCPN.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
SW WINDS WILL KEEP GUSTING TO ~20 KTS THROUGH 30/02Z. A VCTS WAS
INCLUDED AT KMSL DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING/SLOWLY MOVING
SE IN SOUTHERN TN BETWEEN 30/02Z AND 30/03Z. FURTHER EAST...BELIEVE
THEY WILL FALL APART IN A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...SO LEFT OUT OF KHSV.
AT THIS TIME...NOT LOWERING CIGS BELOW VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE
CHANGED IF RADAR TRENDS WARRANT. OTHERWISE...PUT IN ANOTHER VCTS AND
LOWERED CIGS AT 30/08Z AT KMSL AND 30/09Z AT KHSV THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS
THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO N AL. INCLUDED A WIND SHIFT MORE TO THE W
ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 30/15Z...AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF -TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 20/21Z AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 292327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 211 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
AS OF 2 PM...TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80 UNDER SCT/BKN
CLOUD COVER. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY SHOWING A FEW WEAK ECHOS OVER NE
AL. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND A TROF
ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS A WEAK CDFNT OVER SERN MO
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS CDFNT IS NOT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS WEAK CDFNT COULD KICK
OFF SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH ALL OF
TONIGHT WITH A LOW POP. THE NAM DOES HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN...THUS GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE CHC OF PCPN TO TAPER OFF A LITTLE...BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW CHC POP ACROSS THE CWA.

BY WEDNESDAY GFS SHOWS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLE MCS
THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE TN VALLEY. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE WORK WEEK...THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR NOW.
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS GFS SHOWS A SFC
LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME WX PATTERN (THE CHC OF MORE
SHRA/TSRA) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE SE IN
THE NW UPPER FLOW. BY MONDAY GFS IS HINTING AT RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THE CHC OF PCPN.

BOTTOM LINE...FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY...THIS WILL PUT THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW.
THIS WILL MAKE TIMING OF ANY DISTURBANCES TRICKY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER CHC OF PCPN.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
SW WINDS WILL KEEP GUSTING TO ~20 KTS THROUGH 30/02Z. A VCTS WAS
INCLUDED AT KMSL DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING/SLOWLY MOVING
SE IN SOUTHERN TN BETWEEN 30/02Z AND 30/03Z. FURTHER EAST...BELIEVE
THEY WILL FALL APART IN A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...SO LEFT OUT OF KHSV.
AT THIS TIME...NOT LOWERING CIGS BELOW VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE
CHANGED IF RADAR TRENDS WARRANT. OTHERWISE...PUT IN ANOTHER VCTS AND
LOWERED CIGS AT 30/08Z AT KMSL AND 30/09Z AT KHSV THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS
THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO N AL. INCLUDED A WIND SHIFT MORE TO THE W
ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 30/15Z...AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF -TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 20/21Z AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 292327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 211 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
AS OF 2 PM...TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80 UNDER SCT/BKN
CLOUD COVER. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY SHOWING A FEW WEAK ECHOS OVER NE
AL. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND A TROF
ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS A WEAK CDFNT OVER SERN MO
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS CDFNT IS NOT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS WEAK CDFNT COULD KICK
OFF SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH ALL OF
TONIGHT WITH A LOW POP. THE NAM DOES HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN...THUS GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE CHC OF PCPN TO TAPER OFF A LITTLE...BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW CHC POP ACROSS THE CWA.

BY WEDNESDAY GFS SHOWS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLE MCS
THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE TN VALLEY. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE WORK WEEK...THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR NOW.
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS GFS SHOWS A SFC
LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME WX PATTERN (THE CHC OF MORE
SHRA/TSRA) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE SE IN
THE NW UPPER FLOW. BY MONDAY GFS IS HINTING AT RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THE CHC OF PCPN.

BOTTOM LINE...FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY...THIS WILL PUT THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW.
THIS WILL MAKE TIMING OF ANY DISTURBANCES TRICKY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER CHC OF PCPN.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
SW WINDS WILL KEEP GUSTING TO ~20 KTS THROUGH 30/02Z. A VCTS WAS
INCLUDED AT KMSL DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING/SLOWLY MOVING
SE IN SOUTHERN TN BETWEEN 30/02Z AND 30/03Z. FURTHER EAST...BELIEVE
THEY WILL FALL APART IN A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...SO LEFT OUT OF KHSV.
AT THIS TIME...NOT LOWERING CIGS BELOW VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE
CHANGED IF RADAR TRENDS WARRANT. OTHERWISE...PUT IN ANOTHER VCTS AND
LOWERED CIGS AT 30/08Z AT KMSL AND 30/09Z AT KHSV THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS
THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO N AL. INCLUDED A WIND SHIFT MORE TO THE W
ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 30/15Z...AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF -TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 20/21Z AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 292327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 211 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
AS OF 2 PM...TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80 UNDER SCT/BKN
CLOUD COVER. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY SHOWING A FEW WEAK ECHOS OVER NE
AL. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND A TROF
ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS A WEAK CDFNT OVER SERN MO
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS CDFNT IS NOT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS WEAK CDFNT COULD KICK
OFF SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH ALL OF
TONIGHT WITH A LOW POP. THE NAM DOES HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN...THUS GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE CHC OF PCPN TO TAPER OFF A LITTLE...BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW CHC POP ACROSS THE CWA.

BY WEDNESDAY GFS SHOWS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLE MCS
THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE TN VALLEY. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE WORK WEEK...THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR NOW.
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS GFS SHOWS A SFC
LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME WX PATTERN (THE CHC OF MORE
SHRA/TSRA) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE SE IN
THE NW UPPER FLOW. BY MONDAY GFS IS HINTING AT RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THE CHC OF PCPN.

BOTTOM LINE...FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY...THIS WILL PUT THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW.
THIS WILL MAKE TIMING OF ANY DISTURBANCES TRICKY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER CHC OF PCPN.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
SW WINDS WILL KEEP GUSTING TO ~20 KTS THROUGH 30/02Z. A VCTS WAS
INCLUDED AT KMSL DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING/SLOWLY MOVING
SE IN SOUTHERN TN BETWEEN 30/02Z AND 30/03Z. FURTHER EAST...BELIEVE
THEY WILL FALL APART IN A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...SO LEFT OUT OF KHSV.
AT THIS TIME...NOT LOWERING CIGS BELOW VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE
CHANGED IF RADAR TRENDS WARRANT. OTHERWISE...PUT IN ANOTHER VCTS AND
LOWERED CIGS AT 30/08Z AT KMSL AND 30/09Z AT KHSV THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS
THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO N AL. INCLUDED A WIND SHIFT MORE TO THE W
ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 30/15Z...AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF -TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 20/21Z AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 292059
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
359 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST MOISTURE CONFINED ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND TO OUR SOUTH. A SURFACE FRONT WAS MOVING OUR
DIRECTION FROM THE MIDWEST STATES...WITH A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. WE`LL START TO
SEE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BECOME QUITE
UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE COULD BE OBSERVING SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI...MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. WE`LL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF
EACH MCS AS IT TRAVERSES SOUTHEASTWARD...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CAN ALWAYS BRING SURPRISES THIS TIME OF YEAR. MCS ACTIVITY CAN
BUST YOUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WHEN THEY PASS THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...AS WELL AS YOUR FORECAST PRECIPITATION TIMING. THE
COLD POOL BOUNDARY THAT DOMINATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OFTEN
MOVES FASTER AND CAN`T BE RESOLVED WELL BY SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE. IN
OTHER WORDS...IN SOME CASES IT MAY BE MORE OF A NOWCASTING
SITUATION BASED ON THE BEHAVIOR AND MOVEMENT OF EACH MCS AND
MONITORING HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. MCS ACTIVITY USUALLY TENDS TO
PRODUCE HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES...WHICH CAN LEAD TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WE`LL CONTINUE TO NOT HIGHLIGHT ANYTHING IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MCS
ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW. OF COURSE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED...SO MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW THE
FORECAST AND CURRENT CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND WE`LL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY. WE`RE
CERTAINLY NOT CALLING FOR A RAINOUT...BUT FOLKS NEED TO BE
PREPARED FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM WHEN PLANNING THEIR OUTDOOR
EVENTS.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WSW WINDS 7-10KTS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND REGARDING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE VCSH AFTER 9Z AT
BHM/EET/TCL AND AFTER 12Z AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...BUT CHANGES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN ADDITIONAL TAF ISSUANCES. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP AT A COUPLE SITES TOMORROW
MORNING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CLOUDCOVER AND PRECIP MOVING IN WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  87  68  87  70 /  40  70  40  50  60
ANNISTON    68  86  68  87  70 /  30  70  40  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  88  72 /  30  70  30  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  89  73 /  30  70  30  50  40
CALERA      70  85  70  88  72 /  20  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      69  86  69  87  71 /  20  50  40  50  40
MONTGOMERY  71  90  71  91  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
TROY        70  90  70  90  72 /  20  50  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 292059
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
359 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST MOISTURE CONFINED ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND TO OUR SOUTH. A SURFACE FRONT WAS MOVING OUR
DIRECTION FROM THE MIDWEST STATES...WITH A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. WE`LL START TO
SEE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BECOME QUITE
UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE COULD BE OBSERVING SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI...MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. WE`LL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF
EACH MCS AS IT TRAVERSES SOUTHEASTWARD...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CAN ALWAYS BRING SURPRISES THIS TIME OF YEAR. MCS ACTIVITY CAN
BUST YOUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WHEN THEY PASS THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...AS WELL AS YOUR FORECAST PRECIPITATION TIMING. THE
COLD POOL BOUNDARY THAT DOMINATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OFTEN
MOVES FASTER AND CAN`T BE RESOLVED WELL BY SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE. IN
OTHER WORDS...IN SOME CASES IT MAY BE MORE OF A NOWCASTING
SITUATION BASED ON THE BEHAVIOR AND MOVEMENT OF EACH MCS AND
MONITORING HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. MCS ACTIVITY USUALLY TENDS TO
PRODUCE HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES...WHICH CAN LEAD TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WE`LL CONTINUE TO NOT HIGHLIGHT ANYTHING IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MCS
ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW. OF COURSE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED...SO MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW THE
FORECAST AND CURRENT CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND WE`LL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY. WE`RE
CERTAINLY NOT CALLING FOR A RAINOUT...BUT FOLKS NEED TO BE
PREPARED FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM WHEN PLANNING THEIR OUTDOOR
EVENTS.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WSW WINDS 7-10KTS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND REGARDING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE VCSH AFTER 9Z AT
BHM/EET/TCL AND AFTER 12Z AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...BUT CHANGES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN ADDITIONAL TAF ISSUANCES. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP AT A COUPLE SITES TOMORROW
MORNING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CLOUDCOVER AND PRECIP MOVING IN WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  87  68  87  70 /  40  70  40  50  60
ANNISTON    68  86  68  87  70 /  30  70  40  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  88  72 /  30  70  30  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  89  73 /  30  70  30  50  40
CALERA      70  85  70  88  72 /  20  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      69  86  69  87  71 /  20  50  40  50  40
MONTGOMERY  71  90  71  91  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
TROY        70  90  70  90  72 /  20  50  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 292059
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
359 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST MOISTURE CONFINED ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND TO OUR SOUTH. A SURFACE FRONT WAS MOVING OUR
DIRECTION FROM THE MIDWEST STATES...WITH A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. WE`LL START TO
SEE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BECOME QUITE
UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE COULD BE OBSERVING SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI...MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. WE`LL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF
EACH MCS AS IT TRAVERSES SOUTHEASTWARD...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CAN ALWAYS BRING SURPRISES THIS TIME OF YEAR. MCS ACTIVITY CAN
BUST YOUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WHEN THEY PASS THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...AS WELL AS YOUR FORECAST PRECIPITATION TIMING. THE
COLD POOL BOUNDARY THAT DOMINATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OFTEN
MOVES FASTER AND CAN`T BE RESOLVED WELL BY SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE. IN
OTHER WORDS...IN SOME CASES IT MAY BE MORE OF A NOWCASTING
SITUATION BASED ON THE BEHAVIOR AND MOVEMENT OF EACH MCS AND
MONITORING HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. MCS ACTIVITY USUALLY TENDS TO
PRODUCE HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES...WHICH CAN LEAD TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WE`LL CONTINUE TO NOT HIGHLIGHT ANYTHING IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MCS
ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW. OF COURSE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED...SO MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW THE
FORECAST AND CURRENT CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND WE`LL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY. WE`RE
CERTAINLY NOT CALLING FOR A RAINOUT...BUT FOLKS NEED TO BE
PREPARED FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM WHEN PLANNING THEIR OUTDOOR
EVENTS.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WSW WINDS 7-10KTS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND REGARDING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE VCSH AFTER 9Z AT
BHM/EET/TCL AND AFTER 12Z AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...BUT CHANGES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN ADDITIONAL TAF ISSUANCES. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP AT A COUPLE SITES TOMORROW
MORNING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CLOUDCOVER AND PRECIP MOVING IN WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  87  68  87  70 /  40  70  40  50  60
ANNISTON    68  86  68  87  70 /  30  70  40  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  88  72 /  30  70  30  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  89  73 /  30  70  30  50  40
CALERA      70  85  70  88  72 /  20  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      69  86  69  87  71 /  20  50  40  50  40
MONTGOMERY  71  90  71  91  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
TROY        70  90  70  90  72 /  20  50  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 292059
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
359 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST MOISTURE CONFINED ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND TO OUR SOUTH. A SURFACE FRONT WAS MOVING OUR
DIRECTION FROM THE MIDWEST STATES...WITH A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. WE`LL START TO
SEE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BECOME QUITE
UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE COULD BE OBSERVING SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI...MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. WE`LL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF
EACH MCS AS IT TRAVERSES SOUTHEASTWARD...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CAN ALWAYS BRING SURPRISES THIS TIME OF YEAR. MCS ACTIVITY CAN
BUST YOUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WHEN THEY PASS THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...AS WELL AS YOUR FORECAST PRECIPITATION TIMING. THE
COLD POOL BOUNDARY THAT DOMINATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OFTEN
MOVES FASTER AND CAN`T BE RESOLVED WELL BY SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE. IN
OTHER WORDS...IN SOME CASES IT MAY BE MORE OF A NOWCASTING
SITUATION BASED ON THE BEHAVIOR AND MOVEMENT OF EACH MCS AND
MONITORING HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. MCS ACTIVITY USUALLY TENDS TO
PRODUCE HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES...WHICH CAN LEAD TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WE`LL CONTINUE TO NOT HIGHLIGHT ANYTHING IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MCS
ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW. OF COURSE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED...SO MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW THE
FORECAST AND CURRENT CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND WE`LL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY. WE`RE
CERTAINLY NOT CALLING FOR A RAINOUT...BUT FOLKS NEED TO BE
PREPARED FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM WHEN PLANNING THEIR OUTDOOR
EVENTS.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WSW WINDS 7-10KTS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND REGARDING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE VCSH AFTER 9Z AT
BHM/EET/TCL AND AFTER 12Z AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...BUT CHANGES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN ADDITIONAL TAF ISSUANCES. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP AT A COUPLE SITES TOMORROW
MORNING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CLOUDCOVER AND PRECIP MOVING IN WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  87  68  87  70 /  40  70  40  50  60
ANNISTON    68  86  68  87  70 /  30  70  40  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  72  87  71  88  72 /  30  70  30  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  89  73 /  30  70  30  50  40
CALERA      70  85  70  88  72 /  20  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      69  86  69  87  71 /  20  50  40  50  40
MONTGOMERY  71  90  71  91  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
TROY        70  90  70  90  72 /  20  50  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 292050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROF
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES ARE PRESENT...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING
NEAR 1.8 INCHES FOR TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90. WITH THESE DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2500-3000 ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY LOW WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF
60-100 M2/S2 BUT EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS INITIATED BY PRECIPITATION LOADING. BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. /29

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

[TUESDAY NIGHT]...REMNANT FRONT AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S
INLAND...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS BROADENS OUT QUITE A BIT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP MUCH OF THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MID
WEEK...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL START TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THERE IS NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES AND COASTLINE. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR THIS EVENING WITH VCSH RETURNING BY 09Z AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION. WILL HAVE VCTS
BEGINNING BY 13Z WITH A PROB30 GROUP FROM 13-18Z FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PREDOMINATELY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING LIGHT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  72  90  75 /  30  50  30  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  90  75  89  76 /  30  50  30  30  30
DESTIN      78  90  77  89  78 /  30  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  90  70  91  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  70  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
CAMDEN      72  89  69  91  72 /  20  50  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 292050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROF
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES ARE PRESENT...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING
NEAR 1.8 INCHES FOR TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90. WITH THESE DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2500-3000 ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY LOW WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF
60-100 M2/S2 BUT EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS INITIATED BY PRECIPITATION LOADING. BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. /29

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

[TUESDAY NIGHT]...REMNANT FRONT AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S
INLAND...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS BROADENS OUT QUITE A BIT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP MUCH OF THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MID
WEEK...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL START TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THERE IS NOT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES AND COASTLINE. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR THIS EVENING WITH VCSH RETURNING BY 09Z AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION. WILL HAVE VCTS
BEGINNING BY 13Z WITH A PROB30 GROUP FROM 13-18Z FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PREDOMINATELY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING LIGHT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  72  90  75 /  30  50  30  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  90  75  89  76 /  30  50  30  30  30
DESTIN      78  90  77  89  78 /  30  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  90  70  91  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  90  70  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
CAMDEN      72  89  69  91  72 /  20  50  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291911
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
211 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 2 PM...TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80 UNDER SCT/BKN
CLOUD COVER. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY SHOWING A FEW WEAK ECHOS OVER NE
AL. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND A TROF
ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS A WEAK CDFNT OVER SERN MO
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS CDFNT IS NOT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS WEAK CDFNT COULD KICK
OFF SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH ALL OF
TONIGHT WITH A LOW POP. THE NAM DOES HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN...THUS GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE CHC OF PCPN TO TAPER OFF A LITTLE...BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW CHC POP ACROSS THE CWA.

BY WEDNESDAY GFS SHOWS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLE MCS
THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE TN VALLEY. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE WORK WEEK...THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR NOW.
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS GFS SHOWS A SFC
LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME WX PATTERN (THE CHC OF MORE
SHRA/TSRA) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE SE IN
THE NW UPPER FLOW. BY MONDAY GFS IS HINTING AT RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THE CHC OF PCPN.

BOTTOM LINE...FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY...THIS WILL PUT THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW.
THIS WILL MAKE TIMING OF ANY DISTURBANCES TRICKY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER CHC OF PCPN.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 08/09Z SO
INCLUDED VCSH AND A PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED...PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69  87  68  86 /  30  50  30  60
SHOALS        70  88  69  86 /  30  50  30  60
VINEMONT      69  87  68  86 /  30  50  30  60
FAYETTEVILLE  67  85  66  85 /  30  50  30  60
ALBERTVILLE   71  86  69  83 /  30  50  30  60
FORT PAYNE    67  86  68  85 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291911
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
211 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 2 PM...TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80 UNDER SCT/BKN
CLOUD COVER. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY SHOWING A FEW WEAK ECHOS OVER NE
AL. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND A TROF
ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS A WEAK CDFNT OVER SERN MO
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS CDFNT IS NOT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS WEAK CDFNT COULD KICK
OFF SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH ALL OF
TONIGHT WITH A LOW POP. THE NAM DOES HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN...THUS GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE CHC OF PCPN TO TAPER OFF A LITTLE...BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW CHC POP ACROSS THE CWA.

BY WEDNESDAY GFS SHOWS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLE MCS
THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE TN VALLEY. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE WORK WEEK...THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR NOW.
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS GFS SHOWS A SFC
LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME WX PATTERN (THE CHC OF MORE
SHRA/TSRA) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE SE IN
THE NW UPPER FLOW. BY MONDAY GFS IS HINTING AT RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THE CHC OF PCPN.

BOTTOM LINE...FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY...THIS WILL PUT THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW.
THIS WILL MAKE TIMING OF ANY DISTURBANCES TRICKY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER CHC OF PCPN.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 08/09Z SO
INCLUDED VCSH AND A PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED...PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69  87  68  86 /  30  50  30  60
SHOALS        70  88  69  86 /  30  50  30  60
VINEMONT      69  87  68  86 /  30  50  30  60
FAYETTEVILLE  67  85  66  85 /  30  50  30  60
ALBERTVILLE   71  86  69  83 /  30  50  30  60
FORT PAYNE    67  86  68  85 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291911
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
211 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 2 PM...TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80 UNDER SCT/BKN
CLOUD COVER. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY SHOWING A FEW WEAK ECHOS OVER NE
AL. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND A TROF
ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS A WEAK CDFNT OVER SERN MO
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS CDFNT IS NOT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS WEAK CDFNT COULD KICK
OFF SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH ALL OF
TONIGHT WITH A LOW POP. THE NAM DOES HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN...THUS GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE CHC OF PCPN TO TAPER OFF A LITTLE...BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW CHC POP ACROSS THE CWA.

BY WEDNESDAY GFS SHOWS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLE MCS
THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE TN VALLEY. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE WORK WEEK...THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR NOW.
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS GFS SHOWS A SFC
LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME WX PATTERN (THE CHC OF MORE
SHRA/TSRA) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE SE IN
THE NW UPPER FLOW. BY MONDAY GFS IS HINTING AT RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THE CHC OF PCPN.

BOTTOM LINE...FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY...THIS WILL PUT THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW.
THIS WILL MAKE TIMING OF ANY DISTURBANCES TRICKY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER CHC OF PCPN.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 08/09Z SO
INCLUDED VCSH AND A PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED...PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69  87  68  86 /  30  50  30  60
SHOALS        70  88  69  86 /  30  50  30  60
VINEMONT      69  87  68  86 /  30  50  30  60
FAYETTEVILLE  67  85  66  85 /  30  50  30  60
ALBERTVILLE   71  86  69  83 /  30  50  30  60
FORT PAYNE    67  86  68  85 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291758
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1258 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOKING GOOD. DID RAISE MOST SITES BY
A DEGREE OR TWO AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS JUST A TAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE MIX OUT A TOUCH MORE. RAIN NEARBY TO THE NORTH MAY
SLIDE INTO THE NORTH AFTER 3 PM. OTHERWISE LOOKING GOOD...UPDATES
ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WSW WINDS 7-10KTS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND REGARDING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE VCSH AFTER 9Z AT
BHM/EET/TCL AND AFTER 12Z AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...BUT CHANGES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN ADDITIONAL TAF ISSUANCES. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP AT A COUPLE SITES TOMORROW
MORNING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CLOUDCOVER AND PRECIP MOVING IN WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REALLY
GET GOING BY TUESDAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE LOWEST TODAY AND
INCREASE THEREAFTER...BUT NOTHING AT CRITICAL LEVELS. TRANSPORT
WINDS KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGHOUT

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 455 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK MAKES...AT LEAST IN THE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTMENT. A LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
SUITE IS QUITE AGREEABLE IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY BREAKS DOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES BUT
ALSO SHOWING AN INCREASE BY WEEKS END.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER HIGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT
NO REAL FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT MAYBE A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT THE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE ENHANCED FROM TIME TO TIME.

ADDED RAIN CHANCES FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANT OUTLFOW
FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS
AND INCREASE PRECIP WATER BACK TO 1.50 INCHES OR SO. MODEL STILLIN
AGREEMENT THIS PACKAGE WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH AN ENDLESS PARADE OF ENERGY RIDES DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SEEMINGLY EVERYDAY. WENT AHEAD A LEFT MOST DAYS DIURNALLY
ENHANCED...GREATEST ACTIVITY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES FOR A POTENTIAL
SHIFT IN TIMING DAY TO DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THESE FEATURES MAY
PRODUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR FOR
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
OUT OF HAND...IE SEVERE. SO WILL KEEP NO MENTION OF ANYTHING IN
THE HWO. AS USUAL IN THE SUMMER...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE DEADLY
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WHEN THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST RETAINS ITS SAME FLAVOR.

DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE RAIN OUT BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BE
PREPARED FOR RAIN AND STORMS IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  87  68  87  70 /  30  70  40  50  50
ANNISTON    69  87  68  87  70 /  20  70  40  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  86  70  87  72 /  30  70  40  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  89  72 /  30  70  40  50  40
CALERA      71  86  70  87  71 /  20  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      69  86  69  86  71 /  20  50  40  50  30
MONTGOMERY  71  90  71  91  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
TROY        69  89  70  90  72 /  20  50  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291758
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1258 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOKING GOOD. DID RAISE MOST SITES BY
A DEGREE OR TWO AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS JUST A TAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE MIX OUT A TOUCH MORE. RAIN NEARBY TO THE NORTH MAY
SLIDE INTO THE NORTH AFTER 3 PM. OTHERWISE LOOKING GOOD...UPDATES
ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WSW WINDS 7-10KTS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND REGARDING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE VCSH AFTER 9Z AT
BHM/EET/TCL AND AFTER 12Z AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...BUT CHANGES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN ADDITIONAL TAF ISSUANCES. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP AT A COUPLE SITES TOMORROW
MORNING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CLOUDCOVER AND PRECIP MOVING IN WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REALLY
GET GOING BY TUESDAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE LOWEST TODAY AND
INCREASE THEREAFTER...BUT NOTHING AT CRITICAL LEVELS. TRANSPORT
WINDS KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGHOUT

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 455 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK MAKES...AT LEAST IN THE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTMENT. A LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
SUITE IS QUITE AGREEABLE IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY BREAKS DOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES BUT
ALSO SHOWING AN INCREASE BY WEEKS END.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER HIGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT
NO REAL FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT MAYBE A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT THE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE ENHANCED FROM TIME TO TIME.

ADDED RAIN CHANCES FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANT OUTLFOW
FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS
AND INCREASE PRECIP WATER BACK TO 1.50 INCHES OR SO. MODEL STILLIN
AGREEMENT THIS PACKAGE WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH AN ENDLESS PARADE OF ENERGY RIDES DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SEEMINGLY EVERYDAY. WENT AHEAD A LEFT MOST DAYS DIURNALLY
ENHANCED...GREATEST ACTIVITY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES FOR A POTENTIAL
SHIFT IN TIMING DAY TO DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THESE FEATURES MAY
PRODUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR FOR
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
OUT OF HAND...IE SEVERE. SO WILL KEEP NO MENTION OF ANYTHING IN
THE HWO. AS USUAL IN THE SUMMER...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE DEADLY
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WHEN THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST RETAINS ITS SAME FLAVOR.

DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE RAIN OUT BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BE
PREPARED FOR RAIN AND STORMS IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  87  68  87  70 /  30  70  40  50  50
ANNISTON    69  87  68  87  70 /  20  70  40  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  86  70  87  72 /  30  70  40  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  89  72 /  30  70  40  50  40
CALERA      71  86  70  87  71 /  20  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      69  86  69  86  71 /  20  50  40  50  30
MONTGOMERY  71  90  71  91  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
TROY        69  89  70  90  72 /  20  50  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 291758
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1258 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOKING GOOD. DID RAISE MOST SITES BY
A DEGREE OR TWO AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS JUST A TAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE MIX OUT A TOUCH MORE. RAIN NEARBY TO THE NORTH MAY
SLIDE INTO THE NORTH AFTER 3 PM. OTHERWISE LOOKING GOOD...UPDATES
ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WSW WINDS 7-10KTS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND REGARDING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE VCSH AFTER 9Z AT
BHM/EET/TCL AND AFTER 12Z AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...BUT CHANGES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN ADDITIONAL TAF ISSUANCES. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP AT A COUPLE SITES TOMORROW
MORNING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CLOUDCOVER AND PRECIP MOVING IN WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REALLY
GET GOING BY TUESDAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE LOWEST TODAY AND
INCREASE THEREAFTER...BUT NOTHING AT CRITICAL LEVELS. TRANSPORT
WINDS KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGHOUT

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 455 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK MAKES...AT LEAST IN THE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTMENT. A LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
SUITE IS QUITE AGREEABLE IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY BREAKS DOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES BUT
ALSO SHOWING AN INCREASE BY WEEKS END.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER HIGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT
NO REAL FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT MAYBE A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT THE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE ENHANCED FROM TIME TO TIME.

ADDED RAIN CHANCES FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANT OUTLFOW
FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS
AND INCREASE PRECIP WATER BACK TO 1.50 INCHES OR SO. MODEL STILLIN
AGREEMENT THIS PACKAGE WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH AN ENDLESS PARADE OF ENERGY RIDES DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SEEMINGLY EVERYDAY. WENT AHEAD A LEFT MOST DAYS DIURNALLY
ENHANCED...GREATEST ACTIVITY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES FOR A POTENTIAL
SHIFT IN TIMING DAY TO DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THESE FEATURES MAY
PRODUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR FOR
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
OUT OF HAND...IE SEVERE. SO WILL KEEP NO MENTION OF ANYTHING IN
THE HWO. AS USUAL IN THE SUMMER...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE DEADLY
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WHEN THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST RETAINS ITS SAME FLAVOR.

DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE RAIN OUT BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BE
PREPARED FOR RAIN AND STORMS IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  87  68  87  70 /  30  70  40  50  50
ANNISTON    69  87  68  87  70 /  20  70  40  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  86  70  87  72 /  30  70  40  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  89  72 /  30  70  40  50  40
CALERA      71  86  70  87  71 /  20  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      69  86  69  86  71 /  20  50  40  50  30
MONTGOMERY  71  90  71  91  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
TROY        69  89  70  90  72 /  20  50  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291758
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1258 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOKING GOOD. DID RAISE MOST SITES BY
A DEGREE OR TWO AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS JUST A TAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE MIX OUT A TOUCH MORE. RAIN NEARBY TO THE NORTH MAY
SLIDE INTO THE NORTH AFTER 3 PM. OTHERWISE LOOKING GOOD...UPDATES
ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WSW WINDS 7-10KTS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND REGARDING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE VCSH AFTER 9Z AT
BHM/EET/TCL AND AFTER 12Z AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...BUT CHANGES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN ADDITIONAL TAF ISSUANCES. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP AT A COUPLE SITES TOMORROW
MORNING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CLOUDCOVER AND PRECIP MOVING IN WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REALLY
GET GOING BY TUESDAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE LOWEST TODAY AND
INCREASE THEREAFTER...BUT NOTHING AT CRITICAL LEVELS. TRANSPORT
WINDS KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGHOUT

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 455 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK MAKES...AT LEAST IN THE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTMENT. A LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
SUITE IS QUITE AGREEABLE IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY BREAKS DOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES BUT
ALSO SHOWING AN INCREASE BY WEEKS END.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER HIGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT
NO REAL FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT MAYBE A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT THE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE ENHANCED FROM TIME TO TIME.

ADDED RAIN CHANCES FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANT OUTLFOW
FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS
AND INCREASE PRECIP WATER BACK TO 1.50 INCHES OR SO. MODEL STILLIN
AGREEMENT THIS PACKAGE WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH AN ENDLESS PARADE OF ENERGY RIDES DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SEEMINGLY EVERYDAY. WENT AHEAD A LEFT MOST DAYS DIURNALLY
ENHANCED...GREATEST ACTIVITY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES FOR A POTENTIAL
SHIFT IN TIMING DAY TO DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THESE FEATURES MAY
PRODUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR FOR
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
OUT OF HAND...IE SEVERE. SO WILL KEEP NO MENTION OF ANYTHING IN
THE HWO. AS USUAL IN THE SUMMER...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE DEADLY
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WHEN THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST RETAINS ITS SAME FLAVOR.

DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE RAIN OUT BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BE
PREPARED FOR RAIN AND STORMS IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  87  68  87  70 /  30  70  40  50  50
ANNISTON    69  87  68  87  70 /  20  70  40  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  86  70  87  72 /  30  70  40  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  71  89  70  89  72 /  30  70  40  50  40
CALERA      71  86  70  87  71 /  20  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      69  86  69  86  71 /  20  50  40  50  30
MONTGOMERY  71  90  71  91  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
TROY        69  89  70  90  72 /  20  50  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 291735 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH/VCTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THIS
EVENING WITH VCSH RETURNING BY 09Z AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION. WILL HAVE VCTS
BEGINNING BY 13Z WITH A PROB30 GROUP FROM 13-18Z FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR
PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR THE MARINE AREA.
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...1200Z ISSUANCE...AREAS OF LIGHT FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO MVFR HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THIS MORNING
AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS (KPQL, KMOB AND K79J). EXPECT
FOG AND LOW CLDS TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR
PREVAILING BY 14Z. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
TODAY AND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREA. /08 JW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...GENERALLY A DRY
FORECAST...FOR A CHANGE. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST
PERSISTS BUT CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. WILL KEEP SCT THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND DUE TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ALG THE COAST BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THOUGH
WE`LL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WHEN THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED. HOWEVER...MODERATED DOWNWARD MOTION AS
DEPICTED IN THE Q-DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOULD SET A FAIRLY STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL CAP ANY FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL REBOUND TODAY
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AS REMNANT BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO FILL AND SHEAR BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC OVER COASTAL WATERS. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

LONG WAVE HIGH LEVEL TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TUESDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF TUESDAY MORNING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FAVORS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. STORMS CAN BE
EFFICIENT IN DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CONTAINING BRIEF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL/SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF MAINTAINS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST DAYTIME WIND FLOW
FROM 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.70 INCHES). THE LATEST GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FROM THE 29.00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGH
LEVEL TROF AXIS BROADENS OVER THE EASTERN US BY THE LATTER END OF THE
WEEK. TO THE NORTHWEST...THIS SET UP OFTEN FAVORS THE SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH CAN
SPARK AREAS OF NEW STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME AT
TIMES OF MAX HEATING AND BETTER INSTABILITY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHING
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR TO
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
29.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ALONG THE COAST AND
WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
HAS BEGUN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A MODERATE TO STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW TODAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FETCH TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. /08 JW

FIRE WEATHER...LATEST GRIDDED FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR
VERY HIGH DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS TO LIFT TO WELL ABOVE 100 OVER
THE INTERIOR ZONES TODAY. THIS RESIDES IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  72  90  72  89 /  30  10  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   90  76  90  76  90 /  30  10  40  30  30
DESTIN      88  77  90  78  90 /  30  10  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   94  71  90  70  91 /  20  10  30  30  30
WAYNESBORO  94  70  91  70  91 /  20  10  50  30  40
CAMDEN      94  71  90  70  91 /  20  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   92  70  91  72  93 /  20  10  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 291735 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH/VCTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THIS
EVENING WITH VCSH RETURNING BY 09Z AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION. WILL HAVE VCTS
BEGINNING BY 13Z WITH A PROB30 GROUP FROM 13-18Z FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR
PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR THE MARINE AREA.
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...1200Z ISSUANCE...AREAS OF LIGHT FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO MVFR HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THIS MORNING
AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS (KPQL, KMOB AND K79J). EXPECT
FOG AND LOW CLDS TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR
PREVAILING BY 14Z. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
TODAY AND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREA. /08 JW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...GENERALLY A DRY
FORECAST...FOR A CHANGE. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST
PERSISTS BUT CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. WILL KEEP SCT THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND DUE TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ALG THE COAST BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THOUGH
WE`LL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WHEN THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED. HOWEVER...MODERATED DOWNWARD MOTION AS
DEPICTED IN THE Q-DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOULD SET A FAIRLY STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL CAP ANY FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL REBOUND TODAY
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AS REMNANT BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO FILL AND SHEAR BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC OVER COASTAL WATERS. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

LONG WAVE HIGH LEVEL TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TUESDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF TUESDAY MORNING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FAVORS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. STORMS CAN BE
EFFICIENT IN DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CONTAINING BRIEF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL/SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF MAINTAINS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST DAYTIME WIND FLOW
FROM 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.70 INCHES). THE LATEST GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FROM THE 29.00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGH
LEVEL TROF AXIS BROADENS OVER THE EASTERN US BY THE LATTER END OF THE
WEEK. TO THE NORTHWEST...THIS SET UP OFTEN FAVORS THE SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH CAN
SPARK AREAS OF NEW STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME AT
TIMES OF MAX HEATING AND BETTER INSTABILITY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHING
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR TO
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
29.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ALONG THE COAST AND
WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
HAS BEGUN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A MODERATE TO STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW TODAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FETCH TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. /08 JW

FIRE WEATHER...LATEST GRIDDED FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR
VERY HIGH DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS TO LIFT TO WELL ABOVE 100 OVER
THE INTERIOR ZONES TODAY. THIS RESIDES IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  72  90  72  89 /  30  10  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   90  76  90  76  90 /  30  10  40  30  30
DESTIN      88  77  90  78  90 /  30  10  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   94  71  90  70  91 /  20  10  30  30  30
WAYNESBORO  94  70  91  70  91 /  20  10  50  30  40
CAMDEN      94  71  90  70  91 /  20  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   92  70  91  72  93 /  20  10  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291734
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1234 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE STAYED MAINLY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER THIS
MORNING AND HAVE BROUGHT IN ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. THESE HAVE
DEVELOPED OFF OF A WEAK BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WESTERLY AS WE ARE NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE SFC WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY STARTING TO
BRING IN THE MOISTURE TO PRIME THE REST OFF THE WEEK. KEPT POPS
GOING THROUGH OUT THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPANDED THE
ISOLATED POPS FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER STILL
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TN RIVER...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
SW 10-15MPH.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 08/09Z SO
INCLUDED VCSH AND A PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED...PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291734
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1234 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE STAYED MAINLY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER THIS
MORNING AND HAVE BROUGHT IN ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. THESE HAVE
DEVELOPED OFF OF A WEAK BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WESTERLY AS WE ARE NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE SFC WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY STARTING TO
BRING IN THE MOISTURE TO PRIME THE REST OFF THE WEEK. KEPT POPS
GOING THROUGH OUT THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPANDED THE
ISOLATED POPS FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER STILL
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TN RIVER...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
SW 10-15MPH.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 08/09Z SO
INCLUDED VCSH AND A PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED...PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 291607 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1107 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR
PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR THE MARINE AREA.
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...1200Z ISSUANCE...AREAS OF LIGHT FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO MVFR HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THIS MORNING
AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS (KPQL, KMOB AND K79J). EXPECT
FOG AND LOW CLDS TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR
PREVAILING BY 14Z. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
TODAY AND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREA. /08 JW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...GENERALLY A DRY
FORECAST...FOR A CHANGE. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST
PERSISTS BUT CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. WILL KEEP SCT THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND DUE TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ALG THE COAST BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THOUGH
WE`LL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WHEN THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED. HOWEVER...MODERATED DOWNWARD MOTION AS
DEPICTED IN THE Q-DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOULD SET A FAIRLY STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL CAP ANY FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL REBOUND TODAY
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AS REMNANT BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO FILL AND SHEAR BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC OVER COASTAL WATERS. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

LONG WAVE HIGH LEVEL TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TUESDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF TUESDAY MORNING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FAVORS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. STORMS CAN BE
EFFICIENT IN DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CONTAINING BRIEF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL/SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF MAINTAINS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST DAYTIME WIND FLOW
FROM 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.70 INCHES). THE LATEST GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FROM THE 29.00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGH
LEVEL TROF AXIS BROADENS OVER THE EASTERN US BY THE LATTER END OF THE
WEEK. TO THE NORTHWEST...THIS SET UP OFTEN FAVORS THE SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH CAN
SPARK AREAS OF NEW STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME AT
TIMES OF MAX HEATING AND BETTER INSTABILITY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHING
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR TO
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
29.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ALONG THE COAST AND
WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
HAS BEGUN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A MODERATE TO STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW TODAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FETCH TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. /08 JW

FIRE WEATHER...LATEST GRIDDED FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR
VERY HIGH DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS TO LIFT TO WELL ABOVE 100 OVER
THE INTERIOR ZONES TODAY. THIS RESIDES IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  72  90  72  89 /  30  10  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   90  76  90  76  90 /  30  10  40  30  30
DESTIN      88  77  90  78  90 /  30  10  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   94  71  90  70  91 /  20  10  30  30  30
WAYNESBORO  94  70  91  70  91 /  20  10  50  30  40
CAMDEN      94  71  90  70  91 /  20  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   92  70  91  72  93 /  20  10  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 291607 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1107 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR
PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR THE MARINE AREA.
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...1200Z ISSUANCE...AREAS OF LIGHT FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO MVFR HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THIS MORNING
AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS (KPQL, KMOB AND K79J). EXPECT
FOG AND LOW CLDS TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR
PREVAILING BY 14Z. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
TODAY AND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREA. /08 JW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...GENERALLY A DRY
FORECAST...FOR A CHANGE. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST
PERSISTS BUT CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. WILL KEEP SCT THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND DUE TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ALG THE COAST BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THOUGH
WE`LL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WHEN THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED. HOWEVER...MODERATED DOWNWARD MOTION AS
DEPICTED IN THE Q-DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOULD SET A FAIRLY STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL CAP ANY FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL REBOUND TODAY
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AS REMNANT BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO FILL AND SHEAR BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC OVER COASTAL WATERS. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

LONG WAVE HIGH LEVEL TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TUESDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF TUESDAY MORNING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FAVORS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. STORMS CAN BE
EFFICIENT IN DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CONTAINING BRIEF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL/SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF MAINTAINS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST DAYTIME WIND FLOW
FROM 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.70 INCHES). THE LATEST GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FROM THE 29.00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGH
LEVEL TROF AXIS BROADENS OVER THE EASTERN US BY THE LATTER END OF THE
WEEK. TO THE NORTHWEST...THIS SET UP OFTEN FAVORS THE SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH CAN
SPARK AREAS OF NEW STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME AT
TIMES OF MAX HEATING AND BETTER INSTABILITY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHING
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR TO
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
29.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ALONG THE COAST AND
WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
HAS BEGUN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A MODERATE TO STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW TODAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FETCH TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. /08 JW

FIRE WEATHER...LATEST GRIDDED FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR
VERY HIGH DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS TO LIFT TO WELL ABOVE 100 OVER
THE INTERIOR ZONES TODAY. THIS RESIDES IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  72  90  72  89 /  30  10  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   90  76  90  76  90 /  30  10  40  30  30
DESTIN      88  77  90  78  90 /  30  10  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   94  71  90  70  91 /  20  10  30  30  30
WAYNESBORO  94  70  91  70  91 /  20  10  50  30  40
CAMDEN      94  71  90  70  91 /  20  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   92  70  91  72  93 /  20  10  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 291607 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1107 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR
PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR THE MARINE AREA.
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...1200Z ISSUANCE...AREAS OF LIGHT FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO MVFR HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THIS MORNING
AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS (KPQL, KMOB AND K79J). EXPECT
FOG AND LOW CLDS TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR
PREVAILING BY 14Z. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
TODAY AND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREA. /08 JW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...GENERALLY A DRY
FORECAST...FOR A CHANGE. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST
PERSISTS BUT CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. WILL KEEP SCT THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND DUE TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ALG THE COAST BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THOUGH
WE`LL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WHEN THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED. HOWEVER...MODERATED DOWNWARD MOTION AS
DEPICTED IN THE Q-DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOULD SET A FAIRLY STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL CAP ANY FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL REBOUND TODAY
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AS REMNANT BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO FILL AND SHEAR BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC OVER COASTAL WATERS. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE NEAR THE COAST...
OTHERWISE LOW.

LONG WAVE HIGH LEVEL TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TUESDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF TUESDAY MORNING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FAVORS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. STORMS CAN BE
EFFICIENT IN DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CONTAINING BRIEF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL/SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF MAINTAINS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST DAYTIME WIND FLOW
FROM 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.70 INCHES). THE LATEST GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FROM THE 29.00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGH
LEVEL TROF AXIS BROADENS OVER THE EASTERN US BY THE LATTER END OF THE
WEEK. TO THE NORTHWEST...THIS SET UP OFTEN FAVORS THE SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH CAN
SPARK AREAS OF NEW STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME AT
TIMES OF MAX HEATING AND BETTER INSTABILITY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHING
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER/MID 70S INTERIOR TO
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
29.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ALONG THE COAST AND
WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
HAS BEGUN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A MODERATE TO STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW TODAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FETCH TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. /08 JW

FIRE WEATHER...LATEST GRIDDED FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR
VERY HIGH DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS TO LIFT TO WELL ABOVE 100 OVER
THE INTERIOR ZONES TODAY. THIS RESIDES IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  72  90  72  89 /  30  10  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   90  76  90  76  90 /  30  10  40  30  30
DESTIN      88  77  90  78  90 /  30  10  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   94  71  90  70  91 /  20  10  30  30  30
WAYNESBORO  94  70  91  70  91 /  20  10  50  30  40
CAMDEN      94  71  90  70  91 /  20  10  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   92  70  91  72  93 /  20  10  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 291605
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1105 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOKING GOOD. DID RAISE MOST SITES BY
A DEGREE OR TWO AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS JUST A TAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE MIX OUT A TOUCH MORE. RAIN NEARBY TO THE NORTH MAY
SLIDE INTO THE NORTH AFTER 3 PM. OTHERWISE LOOKING GOOD...UPDATES
ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REALLY
GET GOING BY TUESDAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE LOWEST TODAY AND
INCREASE THEREAFTER...BUT NOTHING AT CRITICAL LEVELS. TRANSPORT
WINDS KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGHOUT

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 455 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK MAKES...AT LEAST IN THE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTMENT. A LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
SUITE IS QUITE AGREEABLE IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY BREAKS DOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES BUT
ALSO SHOWING AN INCREASE BY WEEKS END.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER HIGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT
NO REAL FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT MAYBE A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT THE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE ENHANCED FROM TIME TO TIME.

ADDED RAIN CHANCES FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANT OUTLFOW
FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS
AND INCREASE PRECIP WATER BACK TO 1.50 INCHES OR SO. MODEL STILL
INAGREEMENT THIS PACKAGE WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
THE HIGHEST POPS AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH AN ENDLESS PARADE OF ENERGY RIDES
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMINGLY EVERYDAY. WENT AHEAD A LEFT MOST
DAYS DIURNALLY ENHANCED...GREATEST ACTIVITY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES
FOR A POTENTIAL SHIFT IN TIMING DAY TO DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THESE
FEATURES MAY PRODUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ALOFT AND BULK
SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE OUT OF HAND...IE SEVERE. SO WILL KEEP NO MENTION OF
ANYTHING IN THE HWO. AS USUAL IN THE SUMMER...SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WHEN THUNDER
ROARS...GO INDOORS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST RETAINS ITS SAME
FLAVOR.

DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE RAIN OUT BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BE
PREPARED FOR RAIN AND STORMS IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  70  87  68  87 /  20  30  70  40  50
ANNISTON    90  69  87  68  87 /  10  20  70  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  90  73  86  70  87 /  10  30  70  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  93  71  89  70  89 /   0  30  70  40  50
CALERA      89  71  86  70  87 /   0  20  60  40  50
AUBURN      87  69  86  69  86 /   0  20  50  40  50
MONTGOMERY  92  71  90  71  91 /   0  20  50  40  50
TROY        91  69  89  70  90 /  10  20  50  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 291605
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1105 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOKING GOOD. DID RAISE MOST SITES BY
A DEGREE OR TWO AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS JUST A TAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE MIX OUT A TOUCH MORE. RAIN NEARBY TO THE NORTH MAY
SLIDE INTO THE NORTH AFTER 3 PM. OTHERWISE LOOKING GOOD...UPDATES
ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REALLY
GET GOING BY TUESDAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE LOWEST TODAY AND
INCREASE THEREAFTER...BUT NOTHING AT CRITICAL LEVELS. TRANSPORT
WINDS KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGHOUT

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 455 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK MAKES...AT LEAST IN THE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTMENT. A LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
SUITE IS QUITE AGREEABLE IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY BREAKS DOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES BUT
ALSO SHOWING AN INCREASE BY WEEKS END.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER HIGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT
NO REAL FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT MAYBE A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT THE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE ENHANCED FROM TIME TO TIME.

ADDED RAIN CHANCES FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANT OUTLFOW
FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS
AND INCREASE PRECIP WATER BACK TO 1.50 INCHES OR SO. MODEL STILL
INAGREEMENT THIS PACKAGE WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
THE HIGHEST POPS AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH AN ENDLESS PARADE OF ENERGY RIDES
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMINGLY EVERYDAY. WENT AHEAD A LEFT MOST
DAYS DIURNALLY ENHANCED...GREATEST ACTIVITY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES
FOR A POTENTIAL SHIFT IN TIMING DAY TO DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THESE
FEATURES MAY PRODUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ALOFT AND BULK
SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE OUT OF HAND...IE SEVERE. SO WILL KEEP NO MENTION OF
ANYTHING IN THE HWO. AS USUAL IN THE SUMMER...SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WHEN THUNDER
ROARS...GO INDOORS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST RETAINS ITS SAME
FLAVOR.

DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE RAIN OUT BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BE
PREPARED FOR RAIN AND STORMS IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  70  87  68  87 /  20  30  70  40  50
ANNISTON    90  69  87  68  87 /  10  20  70  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  90  73  86  70  87 /  10  30  70  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  93  71  89  70  89 /   0  30  70  40  50
CALERA      89  71  86  70  87 /   0  20  60  40  50
AUBURN      87  69  86  69  86 /   0  20  50  40  50
MONTGOMERY  92  71  90  71  91 /   0  20  50  40  50
TROY        91  69  89  70  90 /  10  20  50  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291550 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1050 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE STAYED MAINLY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER THIS
MORNING AND HAVE BROUGHT IN ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. THESE HAVE
DEVELOPED OFF OF A WEAK BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WESTERLY AS WE ARE NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE SFC WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY STARTING TO
BRING IN THE MOISTURE TO PRIME THE REST OFF THE WEEK. KEPT POPS
GOING THROUGH OUT THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPANDED THE
ISOLATED POPS FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER STILL
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TN RIVER...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
SW 10-15MPH.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH PRIMARILY MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA FROM THE W...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NW AFTER 06Z TUE...WHICH MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDS INTO THE MVFR CAT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291550 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1050 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE STAYED MAINLY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER THIS
MORNING AND HAVE BROUGHT IN ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. THESE HAVE
DEVELOPED OFF OF A WEAK BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WESTERLY AS WE ARE NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE SFC WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY STARTING TO
BRING IN THE MOISTURE TO PRIME THE REST OFF THE WEEK. KEPT POPS
GOING THROUGH OUT THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPANDED THE
ISOLATED POPS FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER STILL
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TN RIVER...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
SW 10-15MPH.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH PRIMARILY MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA FROM THE W...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NW AFTER 06Z TUE...WHICH MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDS INTO THE MVFR CAT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291550 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1050 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE STAYED MAINLY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER THIS
MORNING AND HAVE BROUGHT IN ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. THESE HAVE
DEVELOPED OFF OF A WEAK BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WESTERLY AS WE ARE NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE SFC WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY STARTING TO
BRING IN THE MOISTURE TO PRIME THE REST OFF THE WEEK. KEPT POPS
GOING THROUGH OUT THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPANDED THE
ISOLATED POPS FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER STILL
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TN RIVER...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
SW 10-15MPH.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH PRIMARILY MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA FROM THE W...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NW AFTER 06Z TUE...WHICH MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDS INTO THE MVFR CAT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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