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000
FXUS64 KHUN 300509
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1209 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 955 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AL/MS GULF COAST THIS EVENING. AN
INITIAL VORT MAX ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS FEATURE -- WHICH
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLIER TODAY
-- CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH ONLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IR
SATELLITE DATA DOES SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY TO THE SSE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX PROGGED TO SHIFT
NNWWD INTO THE REGION BY 12Z. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE --
CURRENTLY ACROSS SW GEORGIA/SE ALABAMA -- SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND WILL INCREASE POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHOUT THUNDER...A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROB FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION IN UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS. OTHERWISE...HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND DERIVED ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
INDICATED WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL FROM THE SE.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST REASONING.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN ADVERTISING RA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEAK UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCE SPREADING INTO
THE HSV AREA BY 30/10Z AND MSL BY 14Z. PCPN AND MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS
SHOULD LAST FOR APPROXIMATELY 6-HRS AT EACH TERMINAL...WITH
PREVAILING CIGS REMAINING IN THE LOW-VFR CATEGORY. ALTHOUGH THREAT
FOR EMBEDDED TSRA CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED...IT IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE
IN FORECAST ATTM. PRIMARY GULF COAST CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO OPEN INTO
A WAVE AND LIFT NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW AFTN --
RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN TAF PERIOD. ASSUMING
ANOTHER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RA ON SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES
AND LGT ENE FLOW WILL PROMOTE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300509
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1209 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 955 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AL/MS GULF COAST THIS EVENING. AN
INITIAL VORT MAX ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS FEATURE -- WHICH
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLIER TODAY
-- CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH ONLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IR
SATELLITE DATA DOES SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY TO THE SSE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX PROGGED TO SHIFT
NNWWD INTO THE REGION BY 12Z. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE --
CURRENTLY ACROSS SW GEORGIA/SE ALABAMA -- SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND WILL INCREASE POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHOUT THUNDER...A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROB FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION IN UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS. OTHERWISE...HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND DERIVED ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
INDICATED WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL FROM THE SE.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST REASONING.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN ADVERTISING RA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEAK UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCE SPREADING INTO
THE HSV AREA BY 30/10Z AND MSL BY 14Z. PCPN AND MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS
SHOULD LAST FOR APPROXIMATELY 6-HRS AT EACH TERMINAL...WITH
PREVAILING CIGS REMAINING IN THE LOW-VFR CATEGORY. ALTHOUGH THREAT
FOR EMBEDDED TSRA CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED...IT IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE
IN FORECAST ATTM. PRIMARY GULF COAST CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO OPEN INTO
A WAVE AND LIFT NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW AFTN --
RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN TAF PERIOD. ASSUMING
ANOTHER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RA ON SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES
AND LGT ENE FLOW WILL PROMOTE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300509
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1209 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 955 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AL/MS GULF COAST THIS EVENING. AN
INITIAL VORT MAX ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS FEATURE -- WHICH
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLIER TODAY
-- CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH ONLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IR
SATELLITE DATA DOES SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY TO THE SSE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX PROGGED TO SHIFT
NNWWD INTO THE REGION BY 12Z. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE --
CURRENTLY ACROSS SW GEORGIA/SE ALABAMA -- SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND WILL INCREASE POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHOUT THUNDER...A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROB FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION IN UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS. OTHERWISE...HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND DERIVED ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
INDICATED WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL FROM THE SE.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST REASONING.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN ADVERTISING RA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEAK UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCE SPREADING INTO
THE HSV AREA BY 30/10Z AND MSL BY 14Z. PCPN AND MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS
SHOULD LAST FOR APPROXIMATELY 6-HRS AT EACH TERMINAL...WITH
PREVAILING CIGS REMAINING IN THE LOW-VFR CATEGORY. ALTHOUGH THREAT
FOR EMBEDDED TSRA CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED...IT IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE
IN FORECAST ATTM. PRIMARY GULF COAST CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO OPEN INTO
A WAVE AND LIFT NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW AFTN --
RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN TAF PERIOD. ASSUMING
ANOTHER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RA ON SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES
AND LGT ENE FLOW WILL PROMOTE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 300500 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...TEN YEARS AGO TODAY IT WAS RATHER RAINY AND WINDY...BUT FOR
TONIGHT WE WILL JUST HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ALONG WITH OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG IN PATCHY AREAS
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THEN RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL
WAVE WITH REMNANT CENTER LOCATED JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE
DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK). WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NHC GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANY POSSIBLE AFFECTS (PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND MOST
LIKELY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE FCST AREA
IS DISSECTED BY THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF A
CAMDEN...BREWTON...DESTIN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PCPN
TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
SETUP TO CONTINUE...WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST PCPN GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT)...30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
THEN LOWER MORE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FCST AREA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST BUILDS WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WESTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX...AND WORK WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SHIFT THE GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER
MOIST FLOW...BUT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. HELPING TO KEEP ERIKA
FROM RE-DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. EVEN SO...AS IT MOVES NORTH...IT BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN... MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM [TUESDAY ON]...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGING. THE ECMWF LOOPS AROUND A NOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE FL COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM ENDING UP OVER THE FL/GA/SC
COAST. THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND...OVER AL/GA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS COOLER/WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN-BETWEEN SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH POPS
BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO
AGREEMENT...WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA EITHER GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY OR OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
ADVERTISING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORN. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS UNTIL
THIS TIME. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINING BELOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILST THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AND MOVES
IT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH...TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RISES TO AROUND SEASONAL IN BOTH...WITH TEMPS A SCOOCH ABOVE
SEASONAL.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH A LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE DIURNAL
FLOW PATTERN...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD OCCUR. DUE TO
THIS FACT...THE WIND AND SEAS FCST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS TRICKY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE/TROF...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL OVER EASTERN GULF. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA APPROACH.
REGARDLESS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AN UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  69  92  71 /  20  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   72  90  73  92  75 /  20  10  05  30  10
DESTIN      74  87  76  91  76 /  20  10  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   68  89  67  93  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  93  69 /  20  20  05  05  10
CAMDEN      68  89  68  92  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   68  93  68  94  70 /  20  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300500 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...TEN YEARS AGO TODAY IT WAS RATHER RAINY AND WINDY...BUT FOR
TONIGHT WE WILL JUST HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ALONG WITH OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG IN PATCHY AREAS
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THEN RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL
WAVE WITH REMNANT CENTER LOCATED JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE
DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK). WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NHC GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANY POSSIBLE AFFECTS (PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND MOST
LIKELY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE FCST AREA
IS DISSECTED BY THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF A
CAMDEN...BREWTON...DESTIN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PCPN
TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
SETUP TO CONTINUE...WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST PCPN GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT)...30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
THEN LOWER MORE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FCST AREA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST BUILDS WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WESTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX...AND WORK WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SHIFT THE GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER
MOIST FLOW...BUT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. HELPING TO KEEP ERIKA
FROM RE-DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. EVEN SO...AS IT MOVES NORTH...IT BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN... MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM [TUESDAY ON]...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGING. THE ECMWF LOOPS AROUND A NOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE FL COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM ENDING UP OVER THE FL/GA/SC
COAST. THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND...OVER AL/GA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS COOLER/WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN-BETWEEN SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH POPS
BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO
AGREEMENT...WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA EITHER GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY OR OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
ADVERTISING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORN. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS UNTIL
THIS TIME. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINING BELOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILST THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AND MOVES
IT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH...TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RISES TO AROUND SEASONAL IN BOTH...WITH TEMPS A SCOOCH ABOVE
SEASONAL.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH A LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE DIURNAL
FLOW PATTERN...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD OCCUR. DUE TO
THIS FACT...THE WIND AND SEAS FCST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS TRICKY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE/TROF...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL OVER EASTERN GULF. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA APPROACH.
REGARDLESS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AN UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  69  92  71 /  20  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   72  90  73  92  75 /  20  10  05  30  10
DESTIN      74  87  76  91  76 /  20  10  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   68  89  67  93  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  93  69 /  20  20  05  05  10
CAMDEN      68  89  68  92  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   68  93  68  94  70 /  20  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300500 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...TEN YEARS AGO TODAY IT WAS RATHER RAINY AND WINDY...BUT FOR
TONIGHT WE WILL JUST HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ALONG WITH OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG IN PATCHY AREAS
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THEN RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL
WAVE WITH REMNANT CENTER LOCATED JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE
DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK). WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NHC GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANY POSSIBLE AFFECTS (PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND MOST
LIKELY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE FCST AREA
IS DISSECTED BY THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF A
CAMDEN...BREWTON...DESTIN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PCPN
TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
SETUP TO CONTINUE...WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST PCPN GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT)...30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
THEN LOWER MORE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FCST AREA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST BUILDS WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WESTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX...AND WORK WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SHIFT THE GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER
MOIST FLOW...BUT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. HELPING TO KEEP ERIKA
FROM RE-DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. EVEN SO...AS IT MOVES NORTH...IT BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN... MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM [TUESDAY ON]...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGING. THE ECMWF LOOPS AROUND A NOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE FL COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM ENDING UP OVER THE FL/GA/SC
COAST. THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND...OVER AL/GA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS COOLER/WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN-BETWEEN SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH POPS
BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO
AGREEMENT...WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA EITHER GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY OR OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
ADVERTISING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORN. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS UNTIL
THIS TIME. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINING BELOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILST THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AND MOVES
IT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH...TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RISES TO AROUND SEASONAL IN BOTH...WITH TEMPS A SCOOCH ABOVE
SEASONAL.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH A LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE DIURNAL
FLOW PATTERN...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD OCCUR. DUE TO
THIS FACT...THE WIND AND SEAS FCST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS TRICKY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE/TROF...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL OVER EASTERN GULF. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA APPROACH.
REGARDLESS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AN UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  69  92  71 /  20  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   72  90  73  92  75 /  20  10  05  30  10
DESTIN      74  87  76  91  76 /  20  10  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   68  89  67  93  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  93  69 /  20  20  05  05  10
CAMDEN      68  89  68  92  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   68  93  68  94  70 /  20  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 300500 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...TEN YEARS AGO TODAY IT WAS RATHER RAINY AND WINDY...BUT FOR
TONIGHT WE WILL JUST HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ALONG WITH OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG IN PATCHY AREAS
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THEN RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL
WAVE WITH REMNANT CENTER LOCATED JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE
DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK). WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NHC GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANY POSSIBLE AFFECTS (PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND MOST
LIKELY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE FCST AREA
IS DISSECTED BY THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF A
CAMDEN...BREWTON...DESTIN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PCPN
TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
SETUP TO CONTINUE...WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST PCPN GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT)...30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
THEN LOWER MORE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FCST AREA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST BUILDS WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WESTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX...AND WORK WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SHIFT THE GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER
MOIST FLOW...BUT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. HELPING TO KEEP ERIKA
FROM RE-DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. EVEN SO...AS IT MOVES NORTH...IT BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN... MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM [TUESDAY ON]...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGING. THE ECMWF LOOPS AROUND A NOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE FL COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM ENDING UP OVER THE FL/GA/SC
COAST. THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND...OVER AL/GA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS COOLER/WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN-BETWEEN SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH POPS
BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO
AGREEMENT...WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA EITHER GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY OR OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
ADVERTISING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORN. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS UNTIL
THIS TIME. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINING BELOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILST THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AND MOVES
IT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH...TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RISES TO AROUND SEASONAL IN BOTH...WITH TEMPS A SCOOCH ABOVE
SEASONAL.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH A LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE DIURNAL
FLOW PATTERN...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD OCCUR. DUE TO
THIS FACT...THE WIND AND SEAS FCST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS TRICKY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE/TROF...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL OVER EASTERN GULF. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA APPROACH.
REGARDLESS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AN UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  69  92  71 /  20  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   72  90  73  92  75 /  20  10  05  30  10
DESTIN      74  87  76  91  76 /  20  10  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   68  89  67  93  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  93  69 /  20  20  05  05  10
CAMDEN      68  89  68  92  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   68  93  68  94  70 /  20  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 300446
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
INFLUENCES BUT EXPECT MORE ORGANIZED LIFT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
SUPPORTING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE AL/FL LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KTS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET A
FAVORED AREA TO SUPPORT UPWARD MOTION. PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 1.7-1.9 INCH RANGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS POPS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH POPS DECREASING
TOWARDS SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO FALL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FURTHEST TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WITH THE GEM
BEING THE QUICKEST. EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
WITH 20-30 POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. IF MODEL TRENDS GO FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA...EXPECT POPS WOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AND
WILL SEE POPS INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW LOW LEVEL MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE
12Z PERIOD SO INCLUDED AT ALL SITES. DID HAVE TO BACK OFF ON THE
INITIAL TIMING AS THIS SECOND AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND MAY IMPACT ALL SITES
BEFORE 8 TO 10Z. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE LATE
MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF I-65. TOOK TS MENTION OUT AFTER 03Z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AND END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN TO START THE WORK WEEK BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  83  67  86  68 /  40  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    68  84  67  88  68 /  40  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  85  68  88  70 /  40  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  69  88  69  91  71 /  30  20  10  10  10
CALERA      69  85  69  88  70 /  40  30  20  10  10
AUBURN      68  86  69  87  71 / 100  40  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  69  90  70  93  72 /  50  30  20  20  10
TROY        68  90  70  91  71 / 100  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 300446
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
INFLUENCES BUT EXPECT MORE ORGANIZED LIFT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
SUPPORTING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE AL/FL LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KTS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET A
FAVORED AREA TO SUPPORT UPWARD MOTION. PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 1.7-1.9 INCH RANGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS POPS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH POPS DECREASING
TOWARDS SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO FALL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FURTHEST TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WITH THE GEM
BEING THE QUICKEST. EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
WITH 20-30 POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. IF MODEL TRENDS GO FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA...EXPECT POPS WOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AND
WILL SEE POPS INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW LOW LEVEL MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE
12Z PERIOD SO INCLUDED AT ALL SITES. DID HAVE TO BACK OFF ON THE
INITIAL TIMING AS THIS SECOND AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND MAY IMPACT ALL SITES
BEFORE 8 TO 10Z. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE LATE
MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF I-65. TOOK TS MENTION OUT AFTER 03Z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AND END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN TO START THE WORK WEEK BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  83  67  86  68 /  40  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    68  84  67  88  68 /  40  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  85  68  88  70 /  40  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  69  88  69  91  71 /  30  20  10  10  10
CALERA      69  85  69  88  70 /  40  30  20  10  10
AUBURN      68  86  69  87  71 / 100  40  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  69  90  70  93  72 /  50  30  20  20  10
TROY        68  90  70  91  71 / 100  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300255
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AL/MS GULF COAST THIS EVENING. AN
INITIAL VORT MAX ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS FEATURE -- WHICH
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLIER TODAY
-- CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH ONLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IR
SATELLITE DATA DOES SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY TO THE SSE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX PROGGED TO SHIFT
NNWWD INTO THE REGION BY 12Z. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE --
CURRENTLY ACROSS SW GEORGIA/SE ALABAMA -- SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND WILL INCREASE POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHOUT THUNDER...A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROB FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION IN UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS. OTHERWISE...HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND DERIVED ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
INDICATED WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL FROM THE SE.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 658 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SHORT TERM THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS...AND ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SPRINKLES OF -RA MAY OCCUR AT
EITHER TERMINAL BTWN 30/00-01Z...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO
LOW NATURE OF IMPACT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MOD/HVY RAFL
EARLIER TODAY...BR/FG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH AND
BACK TO ESE LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVC CS CIGS CURRENTLY ARND
20 KFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO ARND 9 KFT AS THE NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...AND THIS MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR VSBYS LOWER
THAN 3-5 SM. MODELS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR REGARDING TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...BUT THREAT FOR TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
ARND 12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. SCT/NMRS STORMS WILL BE PSBL THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS SUNDAY...BEFORE PRIMARY GULF
COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION --RESULTING
IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300255
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AL/MS GULF COAST THIS EVENING. AN
INITIAL VORT MAX ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS FEATURE -- WHICH
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLIER TODAY
-- CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH ONLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IR
SATELLITE DATA DOES SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY TO THE SSE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX PROGGED TO SHIFT
NNWWD INTO THE REGION BY 12Z. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE --
CURRENTLY ACROSS SW GEORGIA/SE ALABAMA -- SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND WILL INCREASE POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHOUT THUNDER...A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROB FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION IN UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS. OTHERWISE...HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND DERIVED ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
INDICATED WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL FROM THE SE.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 658 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SHORT TERM THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS...AND ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SPRINKLES OF -RA MAY OCCUR AT
EITHER TERMINAL BTWN 30/00-01Z...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO
LOW NATURE OF IMPACT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MOD/HVY RAFL
EARLIER TODAY...BR/FG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH AND
BACK TO ESE LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVC CS CIGS CURRENTLY ARND
20 KFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO ARND 9 KFT AS THE NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...AND THIS MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR VSBYS LOWER
THAN 3-5 SM. MODELS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR REGARDING TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...BUT THREAT FOR TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
ARND 12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. SCT/NMRS STORMS WILL BE PSBL THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS SUNDAY...BEFORE PRIMARY GULF
COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION --RESULTING
IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300255
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AL/MS GULF COAST THIS EVENING. AN
INITIAL VORT MAX ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS FEATURE -- WHICH
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLIER TODAY
-- CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH ONLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IR
SATELLITE DATA DOES SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY TO THE SSE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX PROGGED TO SHIFT
NNWWD INTO THE REGION BY 12Z. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE --
CURRENTLY ACROSS SW GEORGIA/SE ALABAMA -- SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND WILL INCREASE POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHOUT THUNDER...A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROB FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION IN UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS. OTHERWISE...HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND DERIVED ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
INDICATED WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL FROM THE SE.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 658 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SHORT TERM THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS...AND ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SPRINKLES OF -RA MAY OCCUR AT
EITHER TERMINAL BTWN 30/00-01Z...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO
LOW NATURE OF IMPACT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MOD/HVY RAFL
EARLIER TODAY...BR/FG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH AND
BACK TO ESE LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVC CS CIGS CURRENTLY ARND
20 KFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO ARND 9 KFT AS THE NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...AND THIS MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR VSBYS LOWER
THAN 3-5 SM. MODELS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR REGARDING TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...BUT THREAT FOR TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
ARND 12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. SCT/NMRS STORMS WILL BE PSBL THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS SUNDAY...BEFORE PRIMARY GULF
COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION --RESULTING
IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300255
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AL/MS GULF COAST THIS EVENING. AN
INITIAL VORT MAX ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS FEATURE -- WHICH
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLIER TODAY
-- CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH ONLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IR
SATELLITE DATA DOES SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY TO THE SSE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX PROGGED TO SHIFT
NNWWD INTO THE REGION BY 12Z. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE --
CURRENTLY ACROSS SW GEORGIA/SE ALABAMA -- SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND WILL INCREASE POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHOUT THUNDER...A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROB FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION IN UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS. OTHERWISE...HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND DERIVED ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
INDICATED WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL FROM THE SE.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 658 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SHORT TERM THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS...AND ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SPRINKLES OF -RA MAY OCCUR AT
EITHER TERMINAL BTWN 30/00-01Z...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO
LOW NATURE OF IMPACT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MOD/HVY RAFL
EARLIER TODAY...BR/FG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH AND
BACK TO ESE LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVC CS CIGS CURRENTLY ARND
20 KFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO ARND 9 KFT AS THE NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...AND THIS MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR VSBYS LOWER
THAN 3-5 SM. MODELS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR REGARDING TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...BUT THREAT FOR TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
ARND 12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. SCT/NMRS STORMS WILL BE PSBL THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS SUNDAY...BEFORE PRIMARY GULF
COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION --RESULTING
IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300255
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AL/MS GULF COAST THIS EVENING. AN
INITIAL VORT MAX ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS FEATURE -- WHICH
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLIER TODAY
-- CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH ONLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IR
SATELLITE DATA DOES SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY TO THE SSE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX PROGGED TO SHIFT
NNWWD INTO THE REGION BY 12Z. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE --
CURRENTLY ACROSS SW GEORGIA/SE ALABAMA -- SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND WILL INCREASE POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHOUT THUNDER...A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROB FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION IN UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS. OTHERWISE...HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND DERIVED ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
INDICATED WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL FROM THE SE.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 658 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SHORT TERM THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS...AND ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SPRINKLES OF -RA MAY OCCUR AT
EITHER TERMINAL BTWN 30/00-01Z...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO
LOW NATURE OF IMPACT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MOD/HVY RAFL
EARLIER TODAY...BR/FG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH AND
BACK TO ESE LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVC CS CIGS CURRENTLY ARND
20 KFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO ARND 9 KFT AS THE NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...AND THIS MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR VSBYS LOWER
THAN 3-5 SM. MODELS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR REGARDING TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...BUT THREAT FOR TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
ARND 12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. SCT/NMRS STORMS WILL BE PSBL THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS SUNDAY...BEFORE PRIMARY GULF
COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION --RESULTING
IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300246 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
946 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...TEN YEARS AGO TODAY IT WAS RATHER RAINY AND WINDY...BUT FOR
TONIGHT WE WILL JUST HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ALONG WITH OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG IN PATCHY AREAS
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THEN RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL
WAVE WITH REMNANT CENTER LOCATED JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE
DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK). WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NHC GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANY POSSIBLE AFFECTS (PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND MOST
LIKELY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE FCST AREA
IS DISSECTED BY THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF A
CAMDEN...BREWTON...DESTIN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PCPN
TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
SETUP TO CONTINUE...WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST PCPN GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT)...30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
THEN LOWER MORE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FCST AREA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST BUILDS WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WESTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX...AND WORK WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SHIFT THE GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER
MOIST FLOW...BUT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. HELPING TO KEEP ERIKA
FROM RE-DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. EVEN SO...AS IT MOVES NORTH...IT BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN... MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM [TUESDAY ON]...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGING. THE ECMWF LOOPS AROUND A NOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE FL COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM ENDING UP OVER THE FL/GA/SC
COAST. THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND...OVER AL/GA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS COOLER/WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN-BETWEEN SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH POPS
BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO
AGREEMENT...WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA EITHER GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY OR OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
ADVERTISING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORN. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS UNTIL
THIS TIME. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINING BELOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILST THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AND MOVES
IT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH...TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RISES TO AROUND SEASONAL IN BOTH...WITH TEMPS A SCOOCH ABOVE
SEASONAL.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH A LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE DIURNAL
FLOW PATTERN...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD OCCUR. DUE TO
THIS FACT...THE WIND AND SEAS FCST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS TRICKY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE/TROF...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL OVER EASTERN GULF. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA APPROACH.
REGARDLESS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AN UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  69  92  71 /  20  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   72  90  73  92  75 /  20  10  05  30  10
DESTIN      74  87  76  91  76 /  20  10  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   68  89  67  93  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  93  69 /  20  20  05  05  10
CAMDEN      68  89  68  92  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   68  93  68  94  70 /  20  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 300246 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
946 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...TEN YEARS AGO TODAY IT WAS RATHER RAINY AND WINDY...BUT FOR
TONIGHT WE WILL JUST HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ALONG WITH OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG IN PATCHY AREAS
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THEN RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL
WAVE WITH REMNANT CENTER LOCATED JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE
DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK). WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NHC GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANY POSSIBLE AFFECTS (PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND MOST
LIKELY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE FCST AREA
IS DISSECTED BY THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF A
CAMDEN...BREWTON...DESTIN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PCPN
TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
SETUP TO CONTINUE...WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST PCPN GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT)...30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
THEN LOWER MORE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FCST AREA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST BUILDS WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WESTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX...AND WORK WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SHIFT THE GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER
MOIST FLOW...BUT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. HELPING TO KEEP ERIKA
FROM RE-DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. EVEN SO...AS IT MOVES NORTH...IT BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN... MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM [TUESDAY ON]...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGING. THE ECMWF LOOPS AROUND A NOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE FL COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM ENDING UP OVER THE FL/GA/SC
COAST. THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND...OVER AL/GA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS COOLER/WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN-BETWEEN SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH POPS
BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO
AGREEMENT...WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA EITHER GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY OR OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
ADVERTISING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORN. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS UNTIL
THIS TIME. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINING BELOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILST THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AND MOVES
IT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH...TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RISES TO AROUND SEASONAL IN BOTH...WITH TEMPS A SCOOCH ABOVE
SEASONAL.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH A LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE DIURNAL
FLOW PATTERN...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD OCCUR. DUE TO
THIS FACT...THE WIND AND SEAS FCST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS TRICKY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE/TROF...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL OVER EASTERN GULF. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA APPROACH.
REGARDLESS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AN UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  69  92  71 /  20  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   72  90  73  92  75 /  20  10  05  30  10
DESTIN      74  87  76  91  76 /  20  10  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   68  89  67  93  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  93  69 /  20  20  05  05  10
CAMDEN      68  89  68  92  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   68  93  68  94  70 /  20  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300002 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SHORT TERM THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS...AND ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SPRINKLES OF -RA MAY OCCUR AT
EITHER TERMINAL BTWN 30/00-01Z...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO
LOW NATURE OF IMPACT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MOD/HVY RAFL
EARLIER TODAY...BR/FG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH
AND BACK TO ESE LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVC CS CIGS CURRENTLY
ARND 20 KFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO ARND 9 KFT AS THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SE...AND THIS MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR
VSBYS LOWER THAN 3-5 SM. MODELS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR REGARDING TIMING
OF ARRIVAL OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...BUT THREAT FOR TSRA SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE ARND 12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. SCT/NMRS STORMS WILL
BE PSBL THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS
SUNDAY...BEFORE PRIMARY GULF COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION --RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300002 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SHORT TERM THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS...AND ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SPRINKLES OF -RA MAY OCCUR AT
EITHER TERMINAL BTWN 30/00-01Z...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO
LOW NATURE OF IMPACT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MOD/HVY RAFL
EARLIER TODAY...BR/FG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH
AND BACK TO ESE LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVC CS CIGS CURRENTLY
ARND 20 KFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO ARND 9 KFT AS THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SE...AND THIS MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR
VSBYS LOWER THAN 3-5 SM. MODELS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR REGARDING TIMING
OF ARRIVAL OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...BUT THREAT FOR TSRA SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE ARND 12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. SCT/NMRS STORMS WILL
BE PSBL THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS
SUNDAY...BEFORE PRIMARY GULF COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION --RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300002 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SHORT TERM THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS...AND ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SPRINKLES OF -RA MAY OCCUR AT
EITHER TERMINAL BTWN 30/00-01Z...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO
LOW NATURE OF IMPACT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MOD/HVY RAFL
EARLIER TODAY...BR/FG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH
AND BACK TO ESE LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVC CS CIGS CURRENTLY
ARND 20 KFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO ARND 9 KFT AS THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SE...AND THIS MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR
VSBYS LOWER THAN 3-5 SM. MODELS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR REGARDING TIMING
OF ARRIVAL OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...BUT THREAT FOR TSRA SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE ARND 12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. SCT/NMRS STORMS WILL
BE PSBL THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS
SUNDAY...BEFORE PRIMARY GULF COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION --RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 300002 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SHORT TERM THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS...AND ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SPRINKLES OF -RA MAY OCCUR AT
EITHER TERMINAL BTWN 30/00-01Z...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO
LOW NATURE OF IMPACT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MOD/HVY RAFL
EARLIER TODAY...BR/FG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH
AND BACK TO ESE LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVC CS CIGS CURRENTLY
ARND 20 KFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO ARND 9 KFT AS THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SE...AND THIS MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR
VSBYS LOWER THAN 3-5 SM. MODELS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR REGARDING TIMING
OF ARRIVAL OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...BUT THREAT FOR TSRA SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE ARND 12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. SCT/NMRS STORMS WILL
BE PSBL THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS
SUNDAY...BEFORE PRIMARY GULF COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION --RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 292358
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SHORT TERM THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS...AND ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SPRINKLES OF -RA MAY OCCUR AT
EITHER TERMINAL BTWN 30/00-01Z...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO
LOW NATURE OF IMPACT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MOD/HVY RAFL
EARLIER TODAY...BR/FG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH AND
VEER TO ESE LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVC CS CIGS CURRENTLY ARND
20 KFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO ARND 9 KFT AS THE NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...AND THIS MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR VSBYS LOWER
THAN 3-5 SM. MODELS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR REGARDING TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...BUT THREAT FOR TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
ARND 12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. SCT/NMRS STORMS WILL BE PSBL THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS SUNDAY...BEFORE PRIMARY GULF
COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION --
RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 292358
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SHORT TERM THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS...AND ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SPRINKLES OF -RA MAY OCCUR AT
EITHER TERMINAL BTWN 30/00-01Z...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO
LOW NATURE OF IMPACT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MOD/HVY RAFL
EARLIER TODAY...BR/FG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH AND
VEER TO ESE LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVC CS CIGS CURRENTLY ARND
20 KFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO ARND 9 KFT AS THE NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...AND THIS MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR VSBYS LOWER
THAN 3-5 SM. MODELS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR REGARDING TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...BUT THREAT FOR TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
ARND 12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. SCT/NMRS STORMS WILL BE PSBL THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS SUNDAY...BEFORE PRIMARY GULF
COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION --
RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 292358
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SHORT TERM THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS...AND ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SPRINKLES OF -RA MAY OCCUR AT
EITHER TERMINAL BTWN 30/00-01Z...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO
LOW NATURE OF IMPACT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MOD/HVY RAFL
EARLIER TODAY...BR/FG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH AND
VEER TO ESE LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVC CS CIGS CURRENTLY ARND
20 KFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO ARND 9 KFT AS THE NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...AND THIS MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR VSBYS LOWER
THAN 3-5 SM. MODELS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR REGARDING TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...BUT THREAT FOR TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
ARND 12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. SCT/NMRS STORMS WILL BE PSBL THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS SUNDAY...BEFORE PRIMARY GULF
COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION --
RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 292342
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. BACK
TO THE WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXIST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS ALABAMA. THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING IN
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS MORNINGS 12Z
BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 1.67 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS CHANGED DRASTICALLY OVER THE
LAST 24-36 HRS. CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 2000-3000
J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WITH DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS. ESTIMATED SATELLITE PW VALUES ARE 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES APPROACHING VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES. OVERALL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT
MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
INFLUENCES BUT EXPECT MORE ORGANIZED LIFT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
SUPPORTING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE AL/FL LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KTS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET A
FAVORED AREA TO SUPPORT UPWARD MOTION. PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 1.7-1.9 INCH RANGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS POPS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH POPS DECREASING
TOWARDS SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO FALL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FURTHEST TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WITH THE GEM
BEING THE QUICKEST. EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
WITH 20-30 POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. IF MODEL TRENDS GO FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA...EXPECT POPS WOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AND
WILL SEE POPS INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL COVERAGE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OUT THERE THIS EVENING. COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN REDUCED OVERNIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP MORE
WIDESPREAD BY THE 12Z PERIOD SO INCLUDED AT ALL SITES. THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE LATE MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF
I-65.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AND END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN TO START THE WORK WEEK BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 292342
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. BACK
TO THE WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXIST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS ALABAMA. THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING IN
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS MORNINGS 12Z
BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 1.67 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS CHANGED DRASTICALLY OVER THE
LAST 24-36 HRS. CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 2000-3000
J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WITH DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS. ESTIMATED SATELLITE PW VALUES ARE 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES APPROACHING VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES. OVERALL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT
MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
INFLUENCES BUT EXPECT MORE ORGANIZED LIFT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
SUPPORTING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE AL/FL LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KTS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET A
FAVORED AREA TO SUPPORT UPWARD MOTION. PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 1.7-1.9 INCH RANGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS POPS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH POPS DECREASING
TOWARDS SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO FALL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FURTHEST TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WITH THE GEM
BEING THE QUICKEST. EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
WITH 20-30 POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. IF MODEL TRENDS GO FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA...EXPECT POPS WOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AND
WILL SEE POPS INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL COVERAGE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OUT THERE THIS EVENING. COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN REDUCED OVERNIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP MORE
WIDESPREAD BY THE 12Z PERIOD SO INCLUDED AT ALL SITES. THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE LATE MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF
I-65.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AND END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN TO START THE WORK WEEK BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 292334 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG IN PATCHY AREAS
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THEN RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL
WAVE WITH REMNANT CENTER LOCATED JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE
DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK). WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NHC GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANY POSSIBLE AFFECTS (PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND MOST
LIKELY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE FCST AREA
IS DISSECTED BY THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF A
CAMDEN...BREWTON...DESTIN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PCPN
TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
SETUP TO CONTINUE...WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST PCPN GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT)...30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
THEN LOWER MORE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FCST AREA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST BUILDS WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WESTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX...AND WORK WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SHIFT THE GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER
MOIST FLOW...BUT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. HELPING TO KEEP ERIKA
FROM RE-DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. EVEN SO...AS IT MOVES NORTH...IT BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN... MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM [TUESDAY ON]...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGING. THE ECMWF LOOPS AROUND A NOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE FL COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM ENDING UP OVER THE FL/GA/SC
COAST. THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND...OVER AL/GA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS COOLER/WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN-BETWEEN SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH POPS
BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO
AGREEMENT...WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA EITHER GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY OR OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
ADVERTISING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORN. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS UNTIL
THIS TIME. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINING BELOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILST THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AND MOVES
IT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH...TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RISES TO AROUND SEASONAL IN BOTH...WITH TEMPS A SCOOCH ABOVE
SEASONAL.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH A LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE DIURNAL
FLOW PATTERN...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD OCCUR. DUE TO
THIS FACT...THE WIND AND SEAS FCST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS TRICKY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE/TROF...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL OVER EASTERN GULF. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA APPROACH.
REGARDLESS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AN UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  69  92  71 /  20  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   72  90  73  92  75 /  20  10  05  30  10
DESTIN      74  87  76  91  76 /  20  10  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   68  89  67  93  69 /  30  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  93  69 /  20  20  05  05  10
CAMDEN      68  89  68  92  69 /  40  20  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   68  93  68  94  70 /  30  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 292334 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG IN PATCHY AREAS
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THEN RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL
WAVE WITH REMNANT CENTER LOCATED JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE
DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK). WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NHC GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANY POSSIBLE AFFECTS (PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND MOST
LIKELY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE FCST AREA
IS DISSECTED BY THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF A
CAMDEN...BREWTON...DESTIN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PCPN
TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
SETUP TO CONTINUE...WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST PCPN GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT)...30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
THEN LOWER MORE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FCST AREA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST BUILDS WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WESTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX...AND WORK WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SHIFT THE GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER
MOIST FLOW...BUT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. HELPING TO KEEP ERIKA
FROM RE-DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. EVEN SO...AS IT MOVES NORTH...IT BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN... MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM [TUESDAY ON]...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGING. THE ECMWF LOOPS AROUND A NOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE FL COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM ENDING UP OVER THE FL/GA/SC
COAST. THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND...OVER AL/GA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS COOLER/WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN-BETWEEN SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH POPS
BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO
AGREEMENT...WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA EITHER GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY OR OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
ADVERTISING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORN. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS UNTIL
THIS TIME. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINING BELOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILST THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AND MOVES
IT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH...TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RISES TO AROUND SEASONAL IN BOTH...WITH TEMPS A SCOOCH ABOVE
SEASONAL.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH A LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE DIURNAL
FLOW PATTERN...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD OCCUR. DUE TO
THIS FACT...THE WIND AND SEAS FCST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS TRICKY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE/TROF...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL OVER EASTERN GULF. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA APPROACH.
REGARDLESS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AN UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  69  92  71 /  20  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   72  90  73  92  75 /  20  10  05  30  10
DESTIN      74  87  76  91  76 /  20  10  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   68  89  67  93  69 /  30  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  93  69 /  20  20  05  05  10
CAMDEN      68  89  68  92  69 /  40  20  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   68  93  68  94  70 /  30  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 292123 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
420 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL
WAVE WITH REMNANT CENTER LOCATED JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE
DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK). WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NHC GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANY POSSIBLE AFFECTS (PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND MOST
LIKELY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE FCST AREA
IS DISSECTED BY THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF A
CAMDEN...BREWTON...DESTIN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PCPN
TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
SETUP TO CONTINUE...WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST PCPN GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT)...30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
THEN LOWER MORE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FCST AREA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST BUILDS WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WESTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX...AND WORK WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SHIFT THE GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER
MOIST FLOW...BUT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. HELPING TO KEEP ERIKA
FROM RE-DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. EVEN SO...AS IT MOVES NORTH...IT BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN... MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY ON]...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGING. THE ECMWF LOOPS AROUND A NOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE FL COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM ENDING UP OVER THE FL/GA/SC
COAST. THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND...OVER AL/GA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS COOLER/WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN-BETWEEN SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH POPS
BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO
AGREEMENT...WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA EITHER GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY OR OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
ADVERTISING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORN. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS UNTIL
THIS TIME. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINING BELOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILST THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AND MOVES
IT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH...TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RISES TO AROUND SEASONAL IN BOTH...WITH TEMPS A SCOOCH ABOVE
SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION... 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH A LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE DIURNAL
FLOW PATTERN...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD OCCUR. DUE TO
THIS FACT...THE WIND AND SEAS FCST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS TRICKY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE/TROF...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL OVER EASTERN GULF. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA APPROACH.
REGARDLESS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AN UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  69  92  71 /  20  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   72  90  73  92  75 /  20  10  05  30  10
DESTIN      74  87  76  91  76 /  20  10  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   68  89  67  93  69 /  30  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  93  69 /  20  20  05  05  10
CAMDEN      68  89  68  92  69 /  40  20  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   68  93  68  94  70 /  30  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 292123 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
420 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL
WAVE WITH REMNANT CENTER LOCATED JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE
DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK). WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NHC GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANY POSSIBLE AFFECTS (PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND MOST
LIKELY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE FCST AREA
IS DISSECTED BY THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF A
CAMDEN...BREWTON...DESTIN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PCPN
TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
SETUP TO CONTINUE...WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST PCPN GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT)...30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
THEN LOWER MORE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FCST AREA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST BUILDS WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WESTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX...AND WORK WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SHIFT THE GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER
MOIST FLOW...BUT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. HELPING TO KEEP ERIKA
FROM RE-DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. EVEN SO...AS IT MOVES NORTH...IT BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN... MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY ON]...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGING. THE ECMWF LOOPS AROUND A NOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE FL COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM ENDING UP OVER THE FL/GA/SC
COAST. THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND...OVER AL/GA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS COOLER/WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN-BETWEEN SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH POPS
BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO
AGREEMENT...WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA EITHER GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY OR OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
ADVERTISING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORN. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS UNTIL
THIS TIME. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINING BELOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILST THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AND MOVES
IT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH...TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RISES TO AROUND SEASONAL IN BOTH...WITH TEMPS A SCOOCH ABOVE
SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION... 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH A LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE DIURNAL
FLOW PATTERN...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD OCCUR. DUE TO
THIS FACT...THE WIND AND SEAS FCST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS TRICKY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE/TROF...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL OVER EASTERN GULF. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA APPROACH.
REGARDLESS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AN UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  69  92  71 /  20  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   72  90  73  92  75 /  20  10  05  30  10
DESTIN      74  87  76  91  76 /  20  10  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   68  89  67  93  69 /  30  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  93  69 /  20  20  05  05  10
CAMDEN      68  89  68  92  69 /  40  20  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   68  93  68  94  70 /  30  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 292123 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
420 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL
WAVE WITH REMNANT CENTER LOCATED JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE
DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK). WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NHC GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANY POSSIBLE AFFECTS (PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND MOST
LIKELY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE FCST AREA
IS DISSECTED BY THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF A
CAMDEN...BREWTON...DESTIN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PCPN
TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
SETUP TO CONTINUE...WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST PCPN GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT)...30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
THEN LOWER MORE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FCST AREA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST BUILDS WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WESTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX...AND WORK WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SHIFT THE GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER
MOIST FLOW...BUT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. HELPING TO KEEP ERIKA
FROM RE-DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. EVEN SO...AS IT MOVES NORTH...IT BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN... MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY ON]...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGING. THE ECMWF LOOPS AROUND A NOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE FL COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM ENDING UP OVER THE FL/GA/SC
COAST. THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND...OVER AL/GA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS COOLER/WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN-BETWEEN SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH POPS
BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO
AGREEMENT...WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA EITHER GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY OR OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
ADVERTISING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORN. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS UNTIL
THIS TIME. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINING BELOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILST THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AND MOVES
IT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH...TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RISES TO AROUND SEASONAL IN BOTH...WITH TEMPS A SCOOCH ABOVE
SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION... 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH A LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE DIURNAL
FLOW PATTERN...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD OCCUR. DUE TO
THIS FACT...THE WIND AND SEAS FCST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS TRICKY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE/TROF...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL OVER EASTERN GULF. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA APPROACH.
REGARDLESS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AN UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  69  92  71 /  20  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   72  90  73  92  75 /  20  10  05  30  10
DESTIN      74  87  76  91  76 /  20  10  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   68  89  67  93  69 /  30  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  93  69 /  20  20  05  05  10
CAMDEN      68  89  68  92  69 /  40  20  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   68  93  68  94  70 /  30  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 292123 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
420 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL
WAVE WITH REMNANT CENTER LOCATED JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE
DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK). WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NHC GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANY POSSIBLE AFFECTS (PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND MOST
LIKELY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE FCST AREA
IS DISSECTED BY THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF A
CAMDEN...BREWTON...DESTIN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PCPN
TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
SETUP TO CONTINUE...WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST PCPN GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT)...30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
THEN LOWER MORE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FCST AREA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST BUILDS WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WESTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX...AND WORK WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SHIFT THE GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER
MOIST FLOW...BUT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. HELPING TO KEEP ERIKA
FROM RE-DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. EVEN SO...AS IT MOVES NORTH...IT BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN... MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY ON]...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGING. THE ECMWF LOOPS AROUND A NOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE FL COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM ENDING UP OVER THE FL/GA/SC
COAST. THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND...OVER AL/GA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS COOLER/WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN-BETWEEN SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH POPS
BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO
AGREEMENT...WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA EITHER GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY OR OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
ADVERTISING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORN. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS UNTIL
THIS TIME. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINING BELOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILST THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AND MOVES
IT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH...TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RISES TO AROUND SEASONAL IN BOTH...WITH TEMPS A SCOOCH ABOVE
SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION... 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH A LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE DIURNAL
FLOW PATTERN...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD OCCUR. DUE TO
THIS FACT...THE WIND AND SEAS FCST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS TRICKY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE/TROF...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL OVER EASTERN GULF. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA APPROACH.
REGARDLESS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AN UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  69  92  71 /  20  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   72  90  73  92  75 /  20  10  05  30  10
DESTIN      74  87  76  91  76 /  20  10  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   68  89  67  93  69 /  30  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  93  69 /  20  20  05  05  10
CAMDEN      68  89  68  92  69 /  40  20  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   68  93  68  94  70 /  30  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 292104
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS
DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE WITH REMNANT CENTER LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK). WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE REMNANTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF REDEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...NHC GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT ATTM.

ANY POSSIBLE AFFECTS (PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND MOST
LIKELY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE FCST AREA
IS DISSECTED BY THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF A
CAMDEN...BREWTON...DESTIN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PCPN
TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
SETUP TO CONTINUE...WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST PCPN GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT)...30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
THEN LOWER MORE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FCST AREA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST BUILDS WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WESTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX...AND WORK WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SHIFT THE GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER
MOIST FLOW...BUT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...WITH GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. HELPING TO KEEP ERIKA FROM RE-
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
EVEN SO...AS IT MOVES NORTH...IT BRINGS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN...
MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS
OF THIS WRITING...NHC HAS A 30 PERCENT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ERIKA IN THE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY ON]...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGING. THE ECMWF LOOPS AROUND A NOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE FL COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM ENDING UP OVER THE FL/GA/SC
COAST. THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND...OVER AL/GA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS COOLER/WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN-BETWEEN SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH POPS
BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO
AGREEMENT...WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA EITHER GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY OR OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
ADVERTISING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORN. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS UNTIL
THIS TIME. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINING BELOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILST THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AND MOVES
IT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH...TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RISES TO AROUND SEASONAL IN BOTH...WITH TEMPS A SCOOCH ABOVE
SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH A LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE DIURNAL
FLOW PATTERN...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD OCCUR. DUE TO
THIS FACT...THE WIND AND SEAS FCST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS TRICKY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE/TROF...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL OVER EASTERN GULF. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA APPROACH.
REGARDLESS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AN UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  69  92  71 /  20  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   72  90  73  92  75 /  20  10  05  30  10
DESTIN      74  87  76  91  76 /  20  10  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   68  89  67  93  69 /  30  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  93  69 /  20  20  05  05  10
CAMDEN      68  89  68  92  69 /  40  20  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   68  93  68  94  70 /  30  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 292104
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS
DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE WITH REMNANT CENTER LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK). WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE REMNANTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF REDEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...NHC GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT ATTM.

ANY POSSIBLE AFFECTS (PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND MOST
LIKELY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE FCST AREA
IS DISSECTED BY THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF A
CAMDEN...BREWTON...DESTIN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PCPN
TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
SETUP TO CONTINUE...WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST PCPN GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT)...30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
THEN LOWER MORE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY (20 PERCENT OR LESS) AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FCST AREA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SC/GA/FL COAST BUILDS WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT SHIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WESTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX...AND WORK WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SHIFT THE GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER
MOIST FLOW...BUT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...WITH GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. HELPING TO KEEP ERIKA FROM RE-
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
EVEN SO...AS IT MOVES NORTH...IT BRINGS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN...
MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS
OF THIS WRITING...NHC HAS A 30 PERCENT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ERIKA IN THE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY ON]...TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGING. THE ECMWF LOOPS AROUND A NOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE FL COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM ENDING UP OVER THE FL/GA/SC
COAST. THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND...OVER AL/GA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS COOLER/WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN-BETWEEN SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH POPS
BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO
AGREEMENT...WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA EITHER GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY OR OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
ADVERTISING THIS UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORN. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS UNTIL
THIS TIME. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINING BELOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILST THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AND MOVES
IT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH...TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN RISES TO AROUND SEASONAL IN BOTH...WITH TEMPS A SCOOCH ABOVE
SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH A LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE DIURNAL
FLOW PATTERN...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD OCCUR. DUE TO
THIS FACT...THE WIND AND SEAS FCST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS TRICKY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE/TROF...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL OVER EASTERN GULF. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA APPROACH.
REGARDLESS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AN UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  69  92  71 /  20  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   72  90  73  92  75 /  20  10  05  30  10
DESTIN      74  87  76  91  76 /  20  10  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   68  89  67  93  69 /  30  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  93  69 /  20  20  05  05  10
CAMDEN      68  89  68  92  69 /  40  20  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   68  93  68  94  70 /  30  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291928
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...BROKEN LINE OF TSRA IS WEST OF KHSV AND MOVING
AWAY...WHILE IMPACTS AT KMSL ARE LOOKING LIKELY 18-20Z AS THE END OF
THE LINE PUSHES NORTH. SCTD STORMS MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL AL COULD
STILL AFFECT KHSV THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER. TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT THE RISK OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
INCREASING WITH THE INCREASING RAINFALL. WILL STICK WITH PREVAILING
MVFR FOG AT BOTH SITES NOW BUT LOWER VIS IS A POSSIBILITY AT KMSL.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  83  66  87 /  30  50  20  20
SHOALS        68  84  67  88 /  30  50  20  20
VINEMONT      67  83  66  87 /  30  50  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  67  82  66  86 /  30  50  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   67  82  66  87 /  30  50  20  20
FORT PAYNE    67  82  65  86 /  30  50  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291928
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...BROKEN LINE OF TSRA IS WEST OF KHSV AND MOVING
AWAY...WHILE IMPACTS AT KMSL ARE LOOKING LIKELY 18-20Z AS THE END OF
THE LINE PUSHES NORTH. SCTD STORMS MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL AL COULD
STILL AFFECT KHSV THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER. TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT THE RISK OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
INCREASING WITH THE INCREASING RAINFALL. WILL STICK WITH PREVAILING
MVFR FOG AT BOTH SITES NOW BUT LOWER VIS IS A POSSIBILITY AT KMSL.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  83  66  87 /  30  50  20  20
SHOALS        68  84  67  88 /  30  50  20  20
VINEMONT      67  83  66  87 /  30  50  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  67  82  66  86 /  30  50  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   67  82  66  87 /  30  50  20  20
FORT PAYNE    67  82  65  86 /  30  50  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291928
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...BROKEN LINE OF TSRA IS WEST OF KHSV AND MOVING
AWAY...WHILE IMPACTS AT KMSL ARE LOOKING LIKELY 18-20Z AS THE END OF
THE LINE PUSHES NORTH. SCTD STORMS MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL AL COULD
STILL AFFECT KHSV THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER. TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT THE RISK OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
INCREASING WITH THE INCREASING RAINFALL. WILL STICK WITH PREVAILING
MVFR FOG AT BOTH SITES NOW BUT LOWER VIS IS A POSSIBILITY AT KMSL.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  83  66  87 /  30  50  20  20
SHOALS        68  84  67  88 /  30  50  20  20
VINEMONT      67  83  66  87 /  30  50  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  67  82  66  86 /  30  50  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   67  82  66  87 /  30  50  20  20
FORT PAYNE    67  82  65  86 /  30  50  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291928
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 AS OF 19Z. BASED UPON TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LINGER TO BETWEEN 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARD HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT ALSO FOR
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST
ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING 20 POP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW AFTERNOON
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE BETTER SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...BROKEN LINE OF TSRA IS WEST OF KHSV AND MOVING
AWAY...WHILE IMPACTS AT KMSL ARE LOOKING LIKELY 18-20Z AS THE END OF
THE LINE PUSHES NORTH. SCTD STORMS MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL AL COULD
STILL AFFECT KHSV THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER. TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT THE RISK OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
INCREASING WITH THE INCREASING RAINFALL. WILL STICK WITH PREVAILING
MVFR FOG AT BOTH SITES NOW BUT LOWER VIS IS A POSSIBILITY AT KMSL.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  83  66  87 /  30  50  20  20
SHOALS        68  84  67  88 /  30  50  20  20
VINEMONT      67  83  66  87 /  30  50  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  67  82  66  86 /  30  50  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   67  82  66  87 /  30  50  20  20
FORT PAYNE    67  82  65  86 /  30  50  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291917
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
217 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. BACK
TO THE WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXIST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS ALABAMA. THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING IN
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS MORNINGS 12Z
BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 1.67 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS CHANGED DRASTICALLY OVER THE
LAST 24-36 HRS. CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 2000-3000
J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WITH DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS. ESTIMATED SATELLITE PW VALUES ARE 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES APPROACHING VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES. OVERALL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT
MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
INFLUENCES BUT EXPECT MORE ORGANIZED LIFT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
SUPPORTING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE AL/FL LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KTS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET A
FAVORED AREA TO SUPPORT UPWARD MOTION. PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 1.7-1.9 INCH RANGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS POPS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH POPS DECREASING
TOWARDS SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO FALL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FURTHEST TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WITH THE GEM
BEING THE QUICKEST. EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
WITH 20-30 POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. IF MODEL TRENDS GO FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA...EXPECT POPS WOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AND
WILL SEE POPS INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MESSY TODAY WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AREAWIDE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN BETWEEN HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT EXPECT RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND
VARIABLE GUSTS OF WIND DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS MOVING OVER
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE KTCL...BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL OBSERVE
MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR NOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED
EVENTUALLY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AND END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN TO START THE WORK WEEK BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  83  67  86  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    68  84  67  88  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  85  68  88  70 /  50  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  69  88  69  91  71 /  30  20  10  10  10
CALERA      69  85  69  88  70 /  60  30  20  10  10
AUBURN      68  86  69  87  71 /  60  40  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  69  90  70  93  72 /  60  30  20  20  10
TROY        68  90  70  91  71 /  60  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 291917
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
217 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. BACK
TO THE WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXIST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS ALABAMA. THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING IN
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS MORNINGS 12Z
BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 1.67 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS CHANGED DRASTICALLY OVER THE
LAST 24-36 HRS. CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 2000-3000
J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WITH DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS. ESTIMATED SATELLITE PW VALUES ARE 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES APPROACHING VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES. OVERALL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT
MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
INFLUENCES BUT EXPECT MORE ORGANIZED LIFT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
SUPPORTING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE AL/FL LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KTS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET A
FAVORED AREA TO SUPPORT UPWARD MOTION. PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 1.7-1.9 INCH RANGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS POPS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH POPS DECREASING
TOWARDS SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO FALL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FURTHEST TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WITH THE GEM
BEING THE QUICKEST. EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
WITH 20-30 POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. IF MODEL TRENDS GO FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA...EXPECT POPS WOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AND
WILL SEE POPS INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MESSY TODAY WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AREAWIDE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN BETWEEN HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT EXPECT RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND
VARIABLE GUSTS OF WIND DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS MOVING OVER
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE KTCL...BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL OBSERVE
MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR NOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED
EVENTUALLY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AND END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN TO START THE WORK WEEK BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  83  67  86  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    68  84  67  88  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  85  68  88  70 /  50  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  69  88  69  91  71 /  30  20  10  10  10
CALERA      69  85  69  88  70 /  60  30  20  10  10
AUBURN      68  86  69  87  71 /  60  40  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  69  90  70  93  72 /  60  30  20  20  10
TROY        68  90  70  91  71 /  60  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291800
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY FORECAST UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY DRY
SO FAR. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH PWATS JUMPING FROM 0.98 TO 1.67 INCHES ON THIS
MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD WITH
LOTS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AREN`T SO STRONG. THEREFORE...MOST STORMS TODAY SHOULD
BEHAVE FOR THE MOST PART. CAN`T RULE OUT A GUSTY WIND REPORT OR
TWO...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH
ON AND OFF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIXED IN.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MESSY TODAY WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AREAWIDE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN BETWEEN HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT EXPECT RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND
VARIABLE GUSTS OF WIND DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS MOVING OVER
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE KTCL...BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL OBSERVE
MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR NOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED
EVENTUALLY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  68  87  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    69  84  68  88  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  86  69  89  70 /  50  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  89  70  92  71 /  40  20  10  10  10
CALERA      70  86  69  89  70 /  50  30  10  20  10
AUBURN      69  85  69  88  71 /  60  40  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  71  92  72 /  60  30  10  20  10
TROY        69  89  70  91  71 /  60  30  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291800
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY FORECAST UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY DRY
SO FAR. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH PWATS JUMPING FROM 0.98 TO 1.67 INCHES ON THIS
MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD WITH
LOTS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AREN`T SO STRONG. THEREFORE...MOST STORMS TODAY SHOULD
BEHAVE FOR THE MOST PART. CAN`T RULE OUT A GUSTY WIND REPORT OR
TWO...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH
ON AND OFF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIXED IN.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MESSY TODAY WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AREAWIDE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN BETWEEN HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT EXPECT RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND
VARIABLE GUSTS OF WIND DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS MOVING OVER
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE KTCL...BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL OBSERVE
MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR NOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED
EVENTUALLY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  68  87  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    69  84  68  88  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  86  69  89  70 /  50  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  89  70  92  71 /  40  20  10  10  10
CALERA      70  86  69  89  70 /  50  30  10  20  10
AUBURN      69  85  69  88  71 /  60  40  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  71  92  72 /  60  30  10  20  10
TROY        69  89  70  91  71 /  60  30  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291800
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY FORECAST UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY DRY
SO FAR. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH PWATS JUMPING FROM 0.98 TO 1.67 INCHES ON THIS
MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD WITH
LOTS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AREN`T SO STRONG. THEREFORE...MOST STORMS TODAY SHOULD
BEHAVE FOR THE MOST PART. CAN`T RULE OUT A GUSTY WIND REPORT OR
TWO...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH
ON AND OFF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIXED IN.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MESSY TODAY WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AREAWIDE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN BETWEEN HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT EXPECT RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND
VARIABLE GUSTS OF WIND DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS MOVING OVER
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE KTCL...BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL OBSERVE
MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR NOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED
EVENTUALLY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  68  87  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    69  84  68  88  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  86  69  89  70 /  50  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  89  70  92  71 /  40  20  10  10  10
CALERA      70  86  69  89  70 /  50  30  10  20  10
AUBURN      69  85  69  88  71 /  60  40  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  71  92  72 /  60  30  10  20  10
TROY        69  89  70  91  71 /  60  30  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291800
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY FORECAST UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY DRY
SO FAR. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH PWATS JUMPING FROM 0.98 TO 1.67 INCHES ON THIS
MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD WITH
LOTS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AREN`T SO STRONG. THEREFORE...MOST STORMS TODAY SHOULD
BEHAVE FOR THE MOST PART. CAN`T RULE OUT A GUSTY WIND REPORT OR
TWO...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH
ON AND OFF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIXED IN.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MESSY TODAY WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AREAWIDE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN BETWEEN HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT EXPECT RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND
VARIABLE GUSTS OF WIND DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS MOVING OVER
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE KTCL...BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL OBSERVE
MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR NOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED
EVENTUALLY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  68  87  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    69  84  68  88  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  86  69  89  70 /  50  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  89  70  92  71 /  40  20  10  10  10
CALERA      70  86  69  89  70 /  50  30  10  20  10
AUBURN      69  85  69  88  71 /  60  40  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  71  92  72 /  60  30  10  20  10
TROY        69  89  70  91  71 /  60  30  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291724 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1138 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
IF YOU THINK THIS MORNING FELT WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN EARLIER
THIS WEEK...YOU ARE RIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINED STEADY IN THE 60S.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF IS PULLING MOISTURE UP INTO THE
TN VALLEY FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SSW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDED BY THE LOW...SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. CURRENT LINEAR CONVECTION
MATCHES UP WITH SFC OBS SHOWING CONVERGENCE BETWEEN MSL AND
HSV...NORTH TOWARDS NASHVILLE. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS...THUS POPS WERE LOWERED ONLY
FOR THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUES THE TREND OF CLOUD COVER ENCROACHING THE
AREA SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT TODAY. ADJUSTED WINDS
AND DEWPOINTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. EVEN WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SO DID
NOT ADJUST AT THIS TIME.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...BROKEN LINE OF TSRA IS WEST OF KHSV AND MOVING
AWAY...WHILE IMPACTS AT KMSL ARE LOOKING LIKELY 18-20Z AS THE END OF
THE LINE PUSHES NORTH. SCTD STORMS MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL AL COULD
STILL AFFECT KHSV THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER. TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT THE RISK OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
INCREASING WITH THE INCREASING RAINFALL. WILL STICK WITH PREVAILING
MVFR FOG AT BOTH SITES NOW BUT LOWER VIS IS A POSSIBILITY AT KMSL.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291724 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1138 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
IF YOU THINK THIS MORNING FELT WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN EARLIER
THIS WEEK...YOU ARE RIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINED STEADY IN THE 60S.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF IS PULLING MOISTURE UP INTO THE
TN VALLEY FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SSW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDED BY THE LOW...SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. CURRENT LINEAR CONVECTION
MATCHES UP WITH SFC OBS SHOWING CONVERGENCE BETWEEN MSL AND
HSV...NORTH TOWARDS NASHVILLE. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS...THUS POPS WERE LOWERED ONLY
FOR THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUES THE TREND OF CLOUD COVER ENCROACHING THE
AREA SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT TODAY. ADJUSTED WINDS
AND DEWPOINTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. EVEN WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SO DID
NOT ADJUST AT THIS TIME.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...BROKEN LINE OF TSRA IS WEST OF KHSV AND MOVING
AWAY...WHILE IMPACTS AT KMSL ARE LOOKING LIKELY 18-20Z AS THE END OF
THE LINE PUSHES NORTH. SCTD STORMS MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL AL COULD
STILL AFFECT KHSV THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER. TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT THE RISK OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
INCREASING WITH THE INCREASING RAINFALL. WILL STICK WITH PREVAILING
MVFR FOG AT BOTH SITES NOW BUT LOWER VIS IS A POSSIBILITY AT KMSL.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291724 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1138 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
IF YOU THINK THIS MORNING FELT WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN EARLIER
THIS WEEK...YOU ARE RIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINED STEADY IN THE 60S.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF IS PULLING MOISTURE UP INTO THE
TN VALLEY FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SSW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDED BY THE LOW...SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. CURRENT LINEAR CONVECTION
MATCHES UP WITH SFC OBS SHOWING CONVERGENCE BETWEEN MSL AND
HSV...NORTH TOWARDS NASHVILLE. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS...THUS POPS WERE LOWERED ONLY
FOR THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUES THE TREND OF CLOUD COVER ENCROACHING THE
AREA SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT TODAY. ADJUSTED WINDS
AND DEWPOINTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. EVEN WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SO DID
NOT ADJUST AT THIS TIME.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...BROKEN LINE OF TSRA IS WEST OF KHSV AND MOVING
AWAY...WHILE IMPACTS AT KMSL ARE LOOKING LIKELY 18-20Z AS THE END OF
THE LINE PUSHES NORTH. SCTD STORMS MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL AL COULD
STILL AFFECT KHSV THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER. TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT THE RISK OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
INCREASING WITH THE INCREASING RAINFALL. WILL STICK WITH PREVAILING
MVFR FOG AT BOTH SITES NOW BUT LOWER VIS IS A POSSIBILITY AT KMSL.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291638 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1138 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...ADJUSTED POPS/WX...WINDS AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IF YOU THINK THIS MORNING FELT WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN EARLIER
THIS WEEK...YOU ARE RIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINED STEADY IN THE 60S.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF IS PULLING MOISTURE UP INTO THE
TN VALLEY FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SSW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDED BY THE LOW...SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. CURRENT LINEAR CONVECTION
MATCHES UP WITH SFC OBS SHOWING CONVERGENCE BETWEEN MSL AND
HSV...NORTH TOWARDS NASHVILLE. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS...THUS POPS WERE LOWERED ONLY
FOR THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUES THE TREND OF CLOUD COVER ENCROACHING THE
AREA SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT TODAY. ADJUSTED WINDS
AND DEWPOINTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. EVEN WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SO DID
NOT ADJUST AT THIS TIME.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TODAY IN TERMS OF COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE ISOLATED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THIS SO WILL JUST
CONTINUE THE VCSH AT THE MOMENT. SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.
4-5KFT CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE TAF PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF 3KFT OR LESS
CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER THE RAIN
TODAY...4-5SM VIS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOIST OVERALL PATTERN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN GULF ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE STATE. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING EVEN BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST INITIALLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GET MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY. ONLY MENTIONING VCTS FOR NOW AS MORE SHRA
THAN TS EXPECTED.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  69  83  68  87 /  60  40  50  20  20
ANNISTON    82  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  83  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  20  20  10  10
CALERA      84  70  86  69  89 /  60  30  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  60  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20
TROY        85  69  89  70  91 /  70  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOIST OVERALL PATTERN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN GULF ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE STATE. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING EVEN BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST INITIALLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GET MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY. ONLY MENTIONING VCTS FOR NOW AS MORE SHRA
THAN TS EXPECTED.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  69  83  68  87 /  60  40  50  20  20
ANNISTON    82  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  83  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  20  20  10  10
CALERA      84  70  86  69  89 /  60  30  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  60  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20
TROY        85  69  89  70  91 /  70  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOIST OVERALL PATTERN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN GULF ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE STATE. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING EVEN BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST INITIALLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GET MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY. ONLY MENTIONING VCTS FOR NOW AS MORE SHRA
THAN TS EXPECTED.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  69  83  68  87 /  60  40  50  20  20
ANNISTON    82  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  83  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  20  20  10  10
CALERA      84  70  86  69  89 /  60  30  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  60  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20
TROY        85  69  89  70  91 /  70  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOIST OVERALL PATTERN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN GULF ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE STATE. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING EVEN BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST INITIALLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GET MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY. ONLY MENTIONING VCTS FOR NOW AS MORE SHRA
THAN TS EXPECTED.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  69  83  68  87 /  60  40  50  20  20
ANNISTON    82  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  83  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  20  20  10  10
CALERA      84  70  86  69  89 /  60  30  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  60  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20
TROY        85  69  89  70  91 /  70  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOIST OVERALL PATTERN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN GULF ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE STATE. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING EVEN BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST INITIALLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GET MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY. ONLY MENTIONING VCTS FOR NOW AS MORE SHRA
THAN TS EXPECTED.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  69  83  68  87 /  60  40  50  20  20
ANNISTON    82  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  83  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  20  20  10  10
CALERA      84  70  86  69  89 /  60  30  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  60  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20
TROY        85  69  89  70  91 /  70  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08



000
FXUS64 KBMX 291151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOIST OVERALL PATTERN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN GULF ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE STATE. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING EVEN BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST INITIALLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GET MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY. ONLY MENTIONING VCTS FOR NOW AS MORE SHRA
THAN TS EXPECTED.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  69  83  68  87 /  60  40  50  20  20
ANNISTON    82  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  83  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  20  20  10  10
CALERA      84  70  86  69  89 /  60  30  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  60  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20
TROY        85  69  89  70  91 /  70  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08




000
FXUS64 KMOB 291136 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
29.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE ACROSS KPNS THIS
MORNING IN OFF THE GULF. CIGS MOSTLY AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS RESULTING
IN VFR CATEGORIES. VSBY OK. HOWEVER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CATEGORIES
FOR BOTH EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY. AWAY FROM
CONVECTION...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A COASTAL TROF NEAR THE
AREA THIS MORNING BECOMES SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
/10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE
LOW. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
IS MORE DIFFLUENT AND LAYER LIFT IS MAXIMIZED...POCKETS OF COLDER
CLOUD TOPS => ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE OBSERVED OFF
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST.

UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...LIFTING UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BY TONIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE
CIRCULATION...WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE HIGHER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND BETTER SUPPORT IS ALIGNED. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT LOOKS
TO BE A FOCUS FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
STORMS MAY BECOME NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH
FLORIDA. OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES...PRODUCING
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...A
FEW COULD REACH THESE LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING THE BETTER INSTABILITY
OF THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO TAPER OFF FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 70S COAST. /10

[SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN
ALABAMA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST MEXICO. MEANWHILE AN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

EXPECTING VERY LITTLE REGARDING RAINFALL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES...AND THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ERIKA. FOR NOW...EXPECT ONLY A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(20 PERCENT) NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO DESTIN
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...AND EAST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER ON MONDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE HUGGING THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS ERIKA MOVES INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93
DEGREES...EXPECT FOR MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 74 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES TO MOVE ERIKA NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A TROPICAL STORM ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...AND NOW MAKING LANDFALL
JUST WEST OF ALLIGATOR POINT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ERIKA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF
ERIKA...WE NOW EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS...AND MID 80S AT THE
BEACHES. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTS IN A SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THE DAY...BECOMING MORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK THROUGH MONDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH RESPECT TO ERIKA.
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS CONTINUED MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...STAYING SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. ERIKA IS A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CUBA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IF THE SYSTEM
SURVIVES...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO LIFT UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
LATE SUNDAY...WHILE TURNING MORE NORTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. CONSIDERING THE LATEST FORECAST...MAY BEGIN TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR
THE LATEST ON TRACK...ADVISORIES...AND DISCUSSIONS REGARDING
ERIKA...REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
/10

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  70  90  70  91 /  20  10  10  05  10
PENSACOLA   88  73  88  73  90 /  30  10  10  05  20
DESTIN      88  76  89  75  90 /  60  10  10  05  20
EVERGREEN   90  68  90  69  92 /  40  20  20  05  20
WAYNESBORO  91  66  91  68  92 /  20  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      89  67  90  69  92 /  40  20  20  05  20
CRESTVIEW   91  68  89  70  91 /  60  20  20  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 291136 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
29.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE ACROSS KPNS THIS
MORNING IN OFF THE GULF. CIGS MOSTLY AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS RESULTING
IN VFR CATEGORIES. VSBY OK. HOWEVER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CATEGORIES
FOR BOTH EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY. AWAY FROM
CONVECTION...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A COASTAL TROF NEAR THE
AREA THIS MORNING BECOMES SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
/10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE
LOW. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
IS MORE DIFFLUENT AND LAYER LIFT IS MAXIMIZED...POCKETS OF COLDER
CLOUD TOPS => ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE OBSERVED OFF
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST.

UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...LIFTING UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BY TONIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE
CIRCULATION...WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE HIGHER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND BETTER SUPPORT IS ALIGNED. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT LOOKS
TO BE A FOCUS FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
STORMS MAY BECOME NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH
FLORIDA. OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES...PRODUCING
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...A
FEW COULD REACH THESE LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING THE BETTER INSTABILITY
OF THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO TAPER OFF FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 70S COAST. /10

[SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN
ALABAMA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST MEXICO. MEANWHILE AN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

EXPECTING VERY LITTLE REGARDING RAINFALL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES...AND THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ERIKA. FOR NOW...EXPECT ONLY A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(20 PERCENT) NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO DESTIN
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...AND EAST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER ON MONDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE HUGGING THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS ERIKA MOVES INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93
DEGREES...EXPECT FOR MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 74 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES TO MOVE ERIKA NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A TROPICAL STORM ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...AND NOW MAKING LANDFALL
JUST WEST OF ALLIGATOR POINT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ERIKA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF
ERIKA...WE NOW EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS...AND MID 80S AT THE
BEACHES. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTS IN A SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THE DAY...BECOMING MORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK THROUGH MONDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH RESPECT TO ERIKA.
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS CONTINUED MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...STAYING SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. ERIKA IS A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CUBA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IF THE SYSTEM
SURVIVES...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO LIFT UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
LATE SUNDAY...WHILE TURNING MORE NORTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. CONSIDERING THE LATEST FORECAST...MAY BEGIN TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR
THE LATEST ON TRACK...ADVISORIES...AND DISCUSSIONS REGARDING
ERIKA...REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
/10

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  70  90  70  91 /  20  10  10  05  10
PENSACOLA   88  73  88  73  90 /  30  10  10  05  20
DESTIN      88  76  89  75  90 /  60  10  10  05  20
EVERGREEN   90  68  90  69  92 /  40  20  20  05  20
WAYNESBORO  91  66  91  68  92 /  20  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      89  67  90  69  92 /  40  20  20  05  20
CRESTVIEW   91  68  89  70  91 /  60  20  20  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291127
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
TEMPS AT 2 AM ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH
A SE BREEZE ARND 5 MPH...NOT TOO BAD. OTHERWISE A 5H TROF WAS OVER
THE MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WAS OFF THE GULF COAST
OF MS/LA. 8H WINDS ARE S/SE WHICH IS BRINGING MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC INTO THE TN VALLEY. WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING CAN EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO POP MAINLY THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR
WX. HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND THE MIDWEST UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE TO CONTINUE
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL COVER THE CWA WITH A
HIGH CHC POP. AGAIN THE CHC OF SVR WX WILL BE LOW ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF ERIKA TO
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN TO A MINIMUM (POPS ARND 20%) ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF WHATEVER IS
LEFT OVER FROM ERIKA. IF THE GFS TURNS OUT CORRECT COULD HAVE A
BETTER CHC OF UNSETTLED WX FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IF THE
ECMWF TURNS OUT CORRECT...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN AT ALL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TODAY IN TERMS OF COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE ISOLATED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THIS SO WILL JUST
CONTINUE THE VCSH AT THE MOMENT. SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.
4-5KFT CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE TAF PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF 3KFT OR LESS
CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER THE RAIN
TODAY...4-5SM VIS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291127
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
TEMPS AT 2 AM ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH
A SE BREEZE ARND 5 MPH...NOT TOO BAD. OTHERWISE A 5H TROF WAS OVER
THE MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WAS OFF THE GULF COAST
OF MS/LA. 8H WINDS ARE S/SE WHICH IS BRINGING MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC INTO THE TN VALLEY. WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING CAN EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO POP MAINLY THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR
WX. HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND THE MIDWEST UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE TO CONTINUE
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL COVER THE CWA WITH A
HIGH CHC POP. AGAIN THE CHC OF SVR WX WILL BE LOW ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF ERIKA TO
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN TO A MINIMUM (POPS ARND 20%) ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF WHATEVER IS
LEFT OVER FROM ERIKA. IF THE GFS TURNS OUT CORRECT COULD HAVE A
BETTER CHC OF UNSETTLED WX FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IF THE
ECMWF TURNS OUT CORRECT...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN AT ALL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TODAY IN TERMS OF COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE ISOLATED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THIS SO WILL JUST
CONTINUE THE VCSH AT THE MOMENT. SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.
4-5KFT CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE TAF PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF 3KFT OR LESS
CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER THE RAIN
TODAY...4-5SM VIS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 291127
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
TEMPS AT 2 AM ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH
A SE BREEZE ARND 5 MPH...NOT TOO BAD. OTHERWISE A 5H TROF WAS OVER
THE MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WAS OFF THE GULF COAST
OF MS/LA. 8H WINDS ARE S/SE WHICH IS BRINGING MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC INTO THE TN VALLEY. WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING CAN EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO POP MAINLY THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR
WX. HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND THE MIDWEST UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE TO CONTINUE
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL COVER THE CWA WITH A
HIGH CHC POP. AGAIN THE CHC OF SVR WX WILL BE LOW ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF ERIKA TO
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN TO A MINIMUM (POPS ARND 20%) ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF WHATEVER IS
LEFT OVER FROM ERIKA. IF THE GFS TURNS OUT CORRECT COULD HAVE A
BETTER CHC OF UNSETTLED WX FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IF THE
ECMWF TURNS OUT CORRECT...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN AT ALL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TODAY IN TERMS OF COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE ISOLATED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THIS SO WILL JUST
CONTINUE THE VCSH AT THE MOMENT. SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.
4-5KFT CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE TAF PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF 3KFT OR LESS
CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER THE RAIN
TODAY...4-5SM VIS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291127
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
TEMPS AT 2 AM ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH
A SE BREEZE ARND 5 MPH...NOT TOO BAD. OTHERWISE A 5H TROF WAS OVER
THE MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WAS OFF THE GULF COAST
OF MS/LA. 8H WINDS ARE S/SE WHICH IS BRINGING MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC INTO THE TN VALLEY. WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING CAN EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO POP MAINLY THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR
WX. HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND THE MIDWEST UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE TO CONTINUE
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL COVER THE CWA WITH A
HIGH CHC POP. AGAIN THE CHC OF SVR WX WILL BE LOW ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF ERIKA TO
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN TO A MINIMUM (POPS ARND 20%) ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF WHATEVER IS
LEFT OVER FROM ERIKA. IF THE GFS TURNS OUT CORRECT COULD HAVE A
BETTER CHC OF UNSETTLED WX FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IF THE
ECMWF TURNS OUT CORRECT...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN AT ALL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TODAY IN TERMS OF COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE ISOLATED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THIS SO WILL JUST
CONTINUE THE VCSH AT THE MOMENT. SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.
4-5KFT CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE TAF PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF 3KFT OR LESS
CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER THE RAIN
TODAY...4-5SM VIS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 290937
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
437 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE
LOW. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
IS MORE DIFFLUENT AND LAYER LIFT IS MAXIMIZED...POCKETS OF COLDER
CLOUD TOPS => ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE OBSERVED OFF
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST.

UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...LIFTING UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BY TONIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE
CIRCULATION...WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE HIGHER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND BETTER SUPPORT IS ALIGNED. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT LOOKS
TO BE A FOCUS FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
STORMS MAY BECOME NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH
FLORIDA. OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES...PRODUCING
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...A
FEW COULD REACH THESE LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING THE BETTER INSTABILITY
OF THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO TAPER OFF FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 70S COAST. /10

[SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN
ALABAMA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST MEXICO. MEANWHILE AN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

EXPECTING VERY LITTLE REGARDING RAINFALL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES...AND THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ERIKA. FOR NOW...EXPECT ONLY A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(20 PERCENT) NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO DESTIN
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...AND EAST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER ON MONDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE HUGGING THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS ERIKA MOVES INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93
DEGREES...EXPECT FOR MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 74 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES TO MOVE ERIKA NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A TROPICAL STORM ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...AND NOW MAKING LANDFALL
JUST WEST OF ALLIGATOR POINT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ERIKA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF
ERIKA...WE NOW EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS...AND MID 80S AT THE
BEACHES. /22

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTS IN A SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THE DAY...BECOMING MORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK THROUGH MONDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH RESPECT TO ERIKA.
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS CONTINUED MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...STAYING SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. ERIKA IS A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CUBA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IF THE SYSTEM
SURVIVES...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO LIFT UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
LATE SUNDAY...WHILE TURNING MORE NORTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. CONSIDERING THE LATEST FORECAST...MAY BEGIN TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR
THE LATEST ON TRACK...ADVISORIES...AND DISCUSSIONS REGARDING
ERIKA...REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
/10

&&

.AVIATION... 29.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE ACROSS
KPNS THIS MORNING IN OFF THE GULF. CIGS MOSTLY AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS
RESULTING IN VFR CATEGORIES. VSBY OK. HOWEVER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR
CATEGORIES FOR BOTH EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY.
AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A COASTAL TROF
NEAR THE AREA THIS MORNING BECOMES SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  70  90  70  91 /  20  10  10  05  10
PENSACOLA   88  73  88  73  90 /  30  10  10  05  20
DESTIN      88  76  89  75  90 /  60  10  10  05  20
EVERGREEN   90  68  90  69  92 /  40  20  20  05  20
WAYNESBORO  91  66  91  68  92 /  20  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      89  67  90  69  92 /  40  20  20  05  20
CRESTVIEW   91  68  89  70  91 /  60  20  20  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 290937
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
437 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE
LOW. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
IS MORE DIFFLUENT AND LAYER LIFT IS MAXIMIZED...POCKETS OF COLDER
CLOUD TOPS => ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE OBSERVED OFF
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST.

UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...LIFTING UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BY TONIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE
CIRCULATION...WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE HIGHER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND BETTER SUPPORT IS ALIGNED. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT LOOKS
TO BE A FOCUS FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
STORMS MAY BECOME NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH
FLORIDA. OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES...PRODUCING
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...A
FEW COULD REACH THESE LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING THE BETTER INSTABILITY
OF THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO TAPER OFF FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 70S COAST. /10

[SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN
ALABAMA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST MEXICO. MEANWHILE AN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

EXPECTING VERY LITTLE REGARDING RAINFALL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES...AND THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ERIKA. FOR NOW...EXPECT ONLY A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(20 PERCENT) NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO DESTIN
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...AND EAST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER ON MONDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE HUGGING THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS ERIKA MOVES INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93
DEGREES...EXPECT FOR MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 74 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES TO MOVE ERIKA NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A TROPICAL STORM ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...AND NOW MAKING LANDFALL
JUST WEST OF ALLIGATOR POINT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ERIKA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF
ERIKA...WE NOW EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS...AND MID 80S AT THE
BEACHES. /22

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTS IN A SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THE DAY...BECOMING MORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK THROUGH MONDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH RESPECT TO ERIKA.
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS CONTINUED MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...STAYING SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. ERIKA IS A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CUBA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IF THE SYSTEM
SURVIVES...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO LIFT UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
LATE SUNDAY...WHILE TURNING MORE NORTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. CONSIDERING THE LATEST FORECAST...MAY BEGIN TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR
THE LATEST ON TRACK...ADVISORIES...AND DISCUSSIONS REGARDING
ERIKA...REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
/10

&&

.AVIATION... 29.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE ACROSS
KPNS THIS MORNING IN OFF THE GULF. CIGS MOSTLY AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS
RESULTING IN VFR CATEGORIES. VSBY OK. HOWEVER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR
CATEGORIES FOR BOTH EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY.
AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A COASTAL TROF
NEAR THE AREA THIS MORNING BECOMES SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  70  90  70  91 /  20  10  10  05  10
PENSACOLA   88  73  88  73  90 /  30  10  10  05  20
DESTIN      88  76  89  75  90 /  60  10  10  05  20
EVERGREEN   90  68  90  69  92 /  40  20  20  05  20
WAYNESBORO  91  66  91  68  92 /  20  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      89  67  90  69  92 /  40  20  20  05  20
CRESTVIEW   91  68  89  70  91 /  60  20  20  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290806
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTIVITY FINALLY HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS LAST RUN
WERE ALREADY BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS BY 8 TO 10Z. AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOOK FOR AN MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN
8 TO 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUNS
ARE NOW INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
12Z IN MGM AND TOI AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTH AND WEST SO INCLUDED
INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. DECREASED THE COVERAGE AFTER 21 TO
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     83  69  83  68  87 /  50  50  50  20  20
ANNISTON    83  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  84  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  30  20  10  10
CALERA      85  70  86  69  89 /  50  40  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  50  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  40  30  10  20
TROY        84  69  89  70  91 /  60  40  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290806
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTIVITY FINALLY HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS LAST RUN
WERE ALREADY BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS BY 8 TO 10Z. AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOOK FOR AN MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN
8 TO 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUNS
ARE NOW INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
12Z IN MGM AND TOI AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTH AND WEST SO INCLUDED
INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. DECREASED THE COVERAGE AFTER 21 TO
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     83  69  83  68  87 /  50  50  50  20  20
ANNISTON    83  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  84  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  30  20  10  10
CALERA      85  70  86  69  89 /  50  40  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  50  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  40  30  10  20
TROY        84  69  89  70  91 /  60  40  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290806
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTIVITY FINALLY HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS LAST RUN
WERE ALREADY BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS BY 8 TO 10Z. AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOOK FOR AN MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN
8 TO 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUNS
ARE NOW INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
12Z IN MGM AND TOI AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTH AND WEST SO INCLUDED
INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. DECREASED THE COVERAGE AFTER 21 TO
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     83  69  83  68  87 /  50  50  50  20  20
ANNISTON    83  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  84  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  30  20  10  10
CALERA      85  70  86  69  89 /  50  40  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  50  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  40  30  10  20
TROY        84  69  89  70  91 /  60  40  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290710
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
210 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS AT 2 AM ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH
A SE BREEZE ARND 5 MPH...NOT TOO BAD. OTHERWISE A 5H TROF WAS OVER
THE MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WAS OFF THE GULF COAST
OF MS/LA. 8H WINDS ARE S/SE WHICH IS BRINGING MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC INTO THE TN VALLEY. WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING CAN EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO POP MAINLY THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR
WX. HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND THE MIDWEST UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE TO CONTINUE
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL COVER THE CWA WITH A
HIGH CHC POP. AGAIN THE CHC OF SVR WX WILL BE LOW ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF ERIKA TO
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN TO A MINIMUM (POPS ARND 20%) ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF WHATEVER IS
LEFT OVER FROM ERIKA. IF THE GFS TURNS OUT CORRECT COULD HAVE A
BETTER CHC OF UNSETTLED WX FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IF THE
ECMWF TURNS OUT CORRECT...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN AT ALL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE S...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CIGS AOA 4-5K LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND SE FLOW INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF LIFTS NWD...AND VCSH
WORDING IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  67  82  65 /  40  30  50  30
SHOALS        86  68  83  66 /  30  30  50  30
VINEMONT      85  67  82  65 /  40  30  50  30
FAYETTEVILLE  84  66  81  64 /  40  30  50  30
ALBERTVILLE   84  67  81  65 /  50  30  50  30
FORT PAYNE    84  66  81  64 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290710
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
210 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS AT 2 AM ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH
A SE BREEZE ARND 5 MPH...NOT TOO BAD. OTHERWISE A 5H TROF WAS OVER
THE MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WAS OFF THE GULF COAST
OF MS/LA. 8H WINDS ARE S/SE WHICH IS BRINGING MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC INTO THE TN VALLEY. WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING CAN EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO POP MAINLY THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR
WX. HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND THE MIDWEST UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE TO CONTINUE
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL COVER THE CWA WITH A
HIGH CHC POP. AGAIN THE CHC OF SVR WX WILL BE LOW ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF ERIKA TO
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN TO A MINIMUM (POPS ARND 20%) ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF WHATEVER IS
LEFT OVER FROM ERIKA. IF THE GFS TURNS OUT CORRECT COULD HAVE A
BETTER CHC OF UNSETTLED WX FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IF THE
ECMWF TURNS OUT CORRECT...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN AT ALL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE S...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CIGS AOA 4-5K LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND SE FLOW INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF LIFTS NWD...AND VCSH
WORDING IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  67  82  65 /  40  30  50  30
SHOALS        86  68  83  66 /  30  30  50  30
VINEMONT      85  67  82  65 /  40  30  50  30
FAYETTEVILLE  84  66  81  64 /  40  30  50  30
ALBERTVILLE   84  67  81  65 /  50  30  50  30
FORT PAYNE    84  66  81  64 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290523 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 955 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL
STATES...AIDED BY A BROAD UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME LINGERING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CNTRL AL...A FEW OF WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE FAR
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT STILL MAY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
CULLMAN CO IN THE NEXT HR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS
WITH THE INLAND SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE EXPCTED SKY COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
SWD. OTHER THAN REFRESHING A FEW OF THE HRLY GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST WX TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE S...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CIGS AOA 4-5K LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND SE FLOW INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF LIFTS NWD...AND VCSH
WORDING IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290523 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 955 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL
STATES...AIDED BY A BROAD UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME LINGERING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CNTRL AL...A FEW OF WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE FAR
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT STILL MAY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
CULLMAN CO IN THE NEXT HR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS
WITH THE INLAND SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE EXPCTED SKY COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
SWD. OTHER THAN REFRESHING A FEW OF THE HRLY GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST WX TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE S...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CIGS AOA 4-5K LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND SE FLOW INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF LIFTS NWD...AND VCSH
WORDING IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290523 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 955 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL
STATES...AIDED BY A BROAD UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME LINGERING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CNTRL AL...A FEW OF WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE FAR
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT STILL MAY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
CULLMAN CO IN THE NEXT HR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS
WITH THE INLAND SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE EXPCTED SKY COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
SWD. OTHER THAN REFRESHING A FEW OF THE HRLY GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST WX TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE S...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CIGS AOA 4-5K LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND SE FLOW INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF LIFTS NWD...AND VCSH
WORDING IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290523 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 955 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL
STATES...AIDED BY A BROAD UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME LINGERING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CNTRL AL...A FEW OF WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE FAR
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT STILL MAY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
CULLMAN CO IN THE NEXT HR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS
WITH THE INLAND SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE EXPCTED SKY COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
SWD. OTHER THAN REFRESHING A FEW OF THE HRLY GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST WX TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE S...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CIGS AOA 4-5K LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND SE FLOW INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF LIFTS NWD...AND VCSH
WORDING IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290523 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 955 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL
STATES...AIDED BY A BROAD UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME LINGERING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CNTRL AL...A FEW OF WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE FAR
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT STILL MAY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
CULLMAN CO IN THE NEXT HR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS
WITH THE INLAND SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE EXPCTED SKY COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
SWD. OTHER THAN REFRESHING A FEW OF THE HRLY GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST WX TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE S...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CIGS AOA 4-5K LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND SE FLOW INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF LIFTS NWD...AND VCSH
WORDING IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290523 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 955 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL
STATES...AIDED BY A BROAD UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME LINGERING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CNTRL AL...A FEW OF WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE FAR
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT STILL MAY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
CULLMAN CO IN THE NEXT HR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS
WITH THE INLAND SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE EXPCTED SKY COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
SWD. OTHER THAN REFRESHING A FEW OF THE HRLY GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST WX TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE S...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CIGS AOA 4-5K LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND SE FLOW INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF LIFTS NWD...AND VCSH
WORDING IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290523 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 955 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL
STATES...AIDED BY A BROAD UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME LINGERING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CNTRL AL...A FEW OF WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE FAR
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT STILL MAY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
CULLMAN CO IN THE NEXT HR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS
WITH THE INLAND SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE EXPCTED SKY COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
SWD. OTHER THAN REFRESHING A FEW OF THE HRLY GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST WX TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE S...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CIGS AOA 4-5K LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND SE FLOW INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF LIFTS NWD...AND VCSH
WORDING IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290523 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 955 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL
STATES...AIDED BY A BROAD UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME LINGERING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CNTRL AL...A FEW OF WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE FAR
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT STILL MAY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
CULLMAN CO IN THE NEXT HR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS
WITH THE INLAND SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE EXPCTED SKY COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
SWD. OTHER THAN REFRESHING A FEW OF THE HRLY GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST WX TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE S...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CIGS AOA 4-5K LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND SE FLOW INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF LIFTS NWD...AND VCSH
WORDING IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290456
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LARGELY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE STATE IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN...EXCEPT FOR ONE
STRONGER CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF SELMA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD. WILL
SCALE BACK THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF CHANCE POPS AGAIN LATER ON TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTIVITY FINALLY HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS LAST RUN
WERE ALREADY BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS BY 8 TO 10Z. AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOOK FOR AN MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN
8 TO 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUNS
ARE NOW INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
12Z IN MGM AND TOI AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTH AND WEST SO INCLUDED
INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. DECREASED THE COVERAGE AFTER 21 TO
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  10  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  30  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  30  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290456
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LARGELY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE STATE IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN...EXCEPT FOR ONE
STRONGER CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF SELMA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD. WILL
SCALE BACK THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF CHANCE POPS AGAIN LATER ON TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTIVITY FINALLY HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS LAST RUN
WERE ALREADY BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS BY 8 TO 10Z. AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOOK FOR AN MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN
8 TO 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUNS
ARE NOW INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
12Z IN MGM AND TOI AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTH AND WEST SO INCLUDED
INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. DECREASED THE COVERAGE AFTER 21 TO
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  10  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  30  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  30  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290456
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LARGELY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE STATE IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN...EXCEPT FOR ONE
STRONGER CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF SELMA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD. WILL
SCALE BACK THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF CHANCE POPS AGAIN LATER ON TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTIVITY FINALLY HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS LAST RUN
WERE ALREADY BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS BY 8 TO 10Z. AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOOK FOR AN MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN
8 TO 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUNS
ARE NOW INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
12Z IN MGM AND TOI AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTH AND WEST SO INCLUDED
INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. DECREASED THE COVERAGE AFTER 21 TO
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  10  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  30  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  30  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290456
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LARGELY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE STATE IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN...EXCEPT FOR ONE
STRONGER CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF SELMA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD. WILL
SCALE BACK THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF CHANCE POPS AGAIN LATER ON TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTIVITY FINALLY HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS LAST RUN
WERE ALREADY BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS BY 8 TO 10Z. AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOOK FOR AN MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN
8 TO 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUNS
ARE NOW INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
12Z IN MGM AND TOI AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTH AND WEST SO INCLUDED
INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. DECREASED THE COVERAGE AFTER 21 TO
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  10  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  30  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  30  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 290454
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1154 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE VCSH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VCTS ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEAST NEAR 8-10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 4-6 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  30  50  30  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  20  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 290454
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1154 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE VCSH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VCTS ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEAST NEAR 8-10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 4-6 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  30  50  30  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  20  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290255 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO SKY COVER/POPS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL
STATES...AIDED BY A BROAD UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME LINGERING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CNTRL AL...A FEW OF WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE FAR
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT STILL MAY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
CULLMAN CO IN THE NEXT HR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS
WITH THE INLAND SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE XPCTED SKY COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS SWD.
OTHER THAN REFRESHING A FEW OF THE HRLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST WX
TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 710 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT BOTH
HSV/MSL...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS AS AN UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCE ROTATES NWWD AROUND A LARGER
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...THREAT FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE BEFORE 29/12Z
AND VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED FOR BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 09Z...ALONG
WITH A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS BTWN 3500-5000 FT. GIVEN COMBINATION
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT...COVERAGE OF TSRA SHOULD BE
QUITE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND VCTS/CB WAS
INTRODUCED AT 14Z -- ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. PREVAILING CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
4 KFT TOMORROW...BUT MAY TEMPORARILY FALL TO IFR IF HEAVIER PCPN
DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL. LGT ESELY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO SSE BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE TO ARND 10 KTS FOR REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290255 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO SKY COVER/POPS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL
STATES...AIDED BY A BROAD UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME LINGERING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CNTRL AL...A FEW OF WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE FAR
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT STILL MAY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
CULLMAN CO IN THE NEXT HR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS
WITH THE INLAND SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE XPCTED SKY COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS SWD.
OTHER THAN REFRESHING A FEW OF THE HRLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST WX
TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 710 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT BOTH
HSV/MSL...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS AS AN UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCE ROTATES NWWD AROUND A LARGER
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...THREAT FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE BEFORE 29/12Z
AND VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED FOR BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 09Z...ALONG
WITH A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS BTWN 3500-5000 FT. GIVEN COMBINATION
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT...COVERAGE OF TSRA SHOULD BE
QUITE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND VCTS/CB WAS
INTRODUCED AT 14Z -- ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. PREVAILING CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
4 KFT TOMORROW...BUT MAY TEMPORARILY FALL TO IFR IF HEAVIER PCPN
DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL. LGT ESELY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO SSE BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE TO ARND 10 KTS FOR REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290255 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO SKY COVER/POPS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL
STATES...AIDED BY A BROAD UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME LINGERING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CNTRL AL...A FEW OF WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE FAR
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT STILL MAY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
CULLMAN CO IN THE NEXT HR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS
WITH THE INLAND SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE XPCTED SKY COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS SWD.
OTHER THAN REFRESHING A FEW OF THE HRLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST WX
TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 710 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT BOTH
HSV/MSL...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS AS AN UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCE ROTATES NWWD AROUND A LARGER
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...THREAT FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE BEFORE 29/12Z
AND VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED FOR BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 09Z...ALONG
WITH A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS BTWN 3500-5000 FT. GIVEN COMBINATION
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT...COVERAGE OF TSRA SHOULD BE
QUITE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND VCTS/CB WAS
INTRODUCED AT 14Z -- ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. PREVAILING CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
4 KFT TOMORROW...BUT MAY TEMPORARILY FALL TO IFR IF HEAVIER PCPN
DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL. LGT ESELY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO SSE BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE TO ARND 10 KTS FOR REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290255 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO SKY COVER/POPS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL
STATES...AIDED BY A BROAD UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME LINGERING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CNTRL AL...A FEW OF WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE FAR
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT STILL MAY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
CULLMAN CO IN THE NEXT HR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS
WITH THE INLAND SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE XPCTED SKY COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS SWD.
OTHER THAN REFRESHING A FEW OF THE HRLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST WX
TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 710 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT BOTH
HSV/MSL...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS AS AN UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCE ROTATES NWWD AROUND A LARGER
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...THREAT FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE BEFORE 29/12Z
AND VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED FOR BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 09Z...ALONG
WITH A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS BTWN 3500-5000 FT. GIVEN COMBINATION
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT...COVERAGE OF TSRA SHOULD BE
QUITE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND VCTS/CB WAS
INTRODUCED AT 14Z -- ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. PREVAILING CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
4 KFT TOMORROW...BUT MAY TEMPORARILY FALL TO IFR IF HEAVIER PCPN
DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL. LGT ESELY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO SSE BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE TO ARND 10 KTS FOR REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290249
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
949 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LARGELY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE STATE IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN...EXCEPT FOR ONE
STRONGER CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF SELMA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD. WILL
SCALE BACK THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF CHANCE POPS AGAIN LATER ON TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TCL TO EET. EET WILL SEE A THUNDERSTORM
BEFORE 01Z AND TCL MAY SEE VCTS THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 7 TO 8Z. LOOK FOR THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A LOW MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN 8 TO 12Z
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE
AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AFTER 17Z...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.

16


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290249
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
949 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LARGELY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE STATE IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN...EXCEPT FOR ONE
STRONGER CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF SELMA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD. WILL
SCALE BACK THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF CHANCE POPS AGAIN LATER ON TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TCL TO EET. EET WILL SEE A THUNDERSTORM
BEFORE 01Z AND TCL MAY SEE VCTS THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 7 TO 8Z. LOOK FOR THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A LOW MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN 8 TO 12Z
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE
AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AFTER 17Z...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.

16


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 290232 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
932 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 4-6 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  30  50  30  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  20  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 290232 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
932 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 4-6 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  30  50  30  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  20  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 290232 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
932 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 4-6 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  30  50  30  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  20  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 290232 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
932 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 4-6 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  30  50  30  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  20  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 290232 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
932 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 4-6 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  30  50  30  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  20  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290036
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
736 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE
WERE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
SOME MISSES ALREADY ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS FROM THE GFS/EURO/GEM AS
THEY POSITIONED THE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH AT CURRENT TIMING.
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA ANYWAYS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
SOME INDICATION THE SYSTEM NEARLY DISSIPATES. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TCL TO EET. EET WILL SEE A THUNDERSTORM
BEFORE 01Z AND TCL MAY SEE VCTS THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 7 TO 8Z. LOOK FOR THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A LOW MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN 8 TO 12Z
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE
AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AFTER 17Z...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  40  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290036
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
736 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE
WERE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
SOME MISSES ALREADY ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS FROM THE GFS/EURO/GEM AS
THEY POSITIONED THE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH AT CURRENT TIMING.
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA ANYWAYS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
SOME INDICATION THE SYSTEM NEARLY DISSIPATES. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TCL TO EET. EET WILL SEE A THUNDERSTORM
BEFORE 01Z AND TCL MAY SEE VCTS THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 7 TO 8Z. LOOK FOR THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A LOW MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN 8 TO 12Z
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE
AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AFTER 17Z...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  40  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 290036
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
736 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE
WERE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
SOME MISSES ALREADY ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS FROM THE GFS/EURO/GEM AS
THEY POSITIONED THE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH AT CURRENT TIMING.
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA ANYWAYS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
SOME INDICATION THE SYSTEM NEARLY DISSIPATES. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TCL TO EET. EET WILL SEE A THUNDERSTORM
BEFORE 01Z AND TCL MAY SEE VCTS THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 7 TO 8Z. LOOK FOR THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A LOW MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN 8 TO 12Z
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE
AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AFTER 17Z...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  40  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290036
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
736 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE
WERE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
SOME MISSES ALREADY ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS FROM THE GFS/EURO/GEM AS
THEY POSITIONED THE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH AT CURRENT TIMING.
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA ANYWAYS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
SOME INDICATION THE SYSTEM NEARLY DISSIPATES. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TCL TO EET. EET WILL SEE A THUNDERSTORM
BEFORE 01Z AND TCL MAY SEE VCTS THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 7 TO 8Z. LOOK FOR THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A LOW MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN 8 TO 12Z
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE
AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AFTER 17Z...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  40  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290010
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
710 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 313 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WAS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS ALSO SETTING UP WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY 00Z MONDAY. ON SATURDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE POP FOR THE NORTHEAST ALABAMA AREA...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS INTO
THE HIGHER END OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
KEEP IN A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK OF ERIKA THROUGH FLORIDA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FORECAST AREA WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WILL TREND MORE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT BOTH
HSV/MSL...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS AS AN UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCE ROTATES NWWD AROUND A LARGER
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...THREAT FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE BEFORE 29/12Z
AND VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED FOR BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 09Z...ALONG
WITH A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS BTWN 3500-5000 FT. GIVEN COMBINATION
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT...COVERAGE OF TSRA SHOULD BE
QUITE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND VCTS/CB WAS
INTRODUCED AT 14Z -- ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. PREVAILING CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
4 KFT TOMORROW...BUT MAY TEMPORARILY FALL TO IFR IF HEAVIER PCPN
DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL. LGT ESELY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO SSE BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE TO ARND 10 KTS FOR REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 290010
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
710 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 313 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WAS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS ALSO SETTING UP WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY 00Z MONDAY. ON SATURDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE POP FOR THE NORTHEAST ALABAMA AREA...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS INTO
THE HIGHER END OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
KEEP IN A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK OF ERIKA THROUGH FLORIDA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FORECAST AREA WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WILL TREND MORE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT BOTH
HSV/MSL...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS AS AN UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCE ROTATES NWWD AROUND A LARGER
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...THREAT FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE BEFORE 29/12Z
AND VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED FOR BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 09Z...ALONG
WITH A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS BTWN 3500-5000 FT. GIVEN COMBINATION
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT...COVERAGE OF TSRA SHOULD BE
QUITE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND VCTS/CB WAS
INTRODUCED AT 14Z -- ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. PREVAILING CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
4 KFT TOMORROW...BUT MAY TEMPORARILY FALL TO IFR IF HEAVIER PCPN
DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL. LGT ESELY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO SSE BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE TO ARND 10 KTS FOR REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290010
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
710 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 313 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WAS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS ALSO SETTING UP WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY 00Z MONDAY. ON SATURDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE POP FOR THE NORTHEAST ALABAMA AREA...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS INTO
THE HIGHER END OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
KEEP IN A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK OF ERIKA THROUGH FLORIDA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FORECAST AREA WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WILL TREND MORE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT BOTH
HSV/MSL...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS AS AN UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCE ROTATES NWWD AROUND A LARGER
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SE...THREAT FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE BEFORE 29/12Z
AND VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED FOR BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 09Z...ALONG
WITH A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS BTWN 3500-5000 FT. GIVEN COMBINATION
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT...COVERAGE OF TSRA SHOULD BE
QUITE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND VCTS/CB WAS
INTRODUCED AT 14Z -- ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. PREVAILING CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
4 KFT TOMORROW...BUT MAY TEMPORARILY FALL TO IFR IF HEAVIER PCPN
DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL. LGT ESELY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO SSE BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE TO ARND 10 KTS FOR REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282258 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
558 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 4-6 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  50  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  20  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282258 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
558 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 4-6 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  50  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  20  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282258 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
558 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 4-6 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  50  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  20  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282258 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
558 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 4-6 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  50  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  20  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282044
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  50  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  20  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 282044
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  50  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  20  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282044
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  50  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  20  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282044
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  50  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  20  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282044
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  20  50  40  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  50  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  20  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 282013
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
313 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WAS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS ALSO SETTING UP WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY 00Z MONDAY. ON SATURDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE POP FOR THE NORTHEAST ALABAMA AREA...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS INTO
THE HIGHER END OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
KEEP IN A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK OF ERICKA THROUGH FLORIDA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FORECAST AREA WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WILL TREND MORE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 15 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MVFR MIST...GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...AS THE
MIST BEGINS TO MIX OUT.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  86  68  86 /   0  30  30  40
SHOALS        68  87  69  87 /   0  20  20  40
VINEMONT      68  84  68  84 /   0  30  30  40
FAYETTEVILLE  67  84  67  83 /   0  30  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   68  83  68  84 /  10  40  30  40
FORT PAYNE    67  83  67  83 /  10  40  40  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 282013
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
313 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WAS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS ALSO SETTING UP WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY 00Z MONDAY. ON SATURDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE POP FOR THE NORTHEAST ALABAMA AREA...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS INTO
THE HIGHER END OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
KEEP IN A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK OF ERICKA THROUGH FLORIDA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FORECAST AREA WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WILL TREND MORE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 15 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MVFR MIST...GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...AS THE
MIST BEGINS TO MIX OUT.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  86  68  86 /   0  30  30  40
SHOALS        68  87  69  87 /   0  20  20  40
VINEMONT      68  84  68  84 /   0  30  30  40
FAYETTEVILLE  67  84  67  83 /   0  30  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   68  83  68  84 /  10  40  30  40
FORT PAYNE    67  83  67  83 /  10  40  40  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 282013
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
313 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WAS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS ALSO SETTING UP WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY 00Z MONDAY. ON SATURDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE POP FOR THE NORTHEAST ALABAMA AREA...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS INTO
THE HIGHER END OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
KEEP IN A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK OF ERICKA THROUGH FLORIDA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FORECAST AREA WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WILL TREND MORE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 15 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MVFR MIST...GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...AS THE
MIST BEGINS TO MIX OUT.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  86  68  86 /   0  30  30  40
SHOALS        68  87  69  87 /   0  20  20  40
VINEMONT      68  84  68  84 /   0  30  30  40
FAYETTEVILLE  67  84  67  83 /   0  30  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   68  83  68  84 /  10  40  30  40
FORT PAYNE    67  83  67  83 /  10  40  40  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 282007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE
WERE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
SOME MISSES ALREADY ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS FROM THE GFS/EURO/GEM AS
THEY POSITIONED THE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH AT CURRENT TIMING.
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA ANYWAYS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
SOME INDICATION THE SYSTEM NEARLY DISSIPATES. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  10  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 282007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE
WERE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
SOME MISSES ALREADY ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS FROM THE GFS/EURO/GEM AS
THEY POSITIONED THE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH AT CURRENT TIMING.
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA ANYWAYS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
SOME INDICATION THE SYSTEM NEARLY DISSIPATES. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  10  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 282007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE
WERE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
SOME MISSES ALREADY ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS FROM THE GFS/EURO/GEM AS
THEY POSITIONED THE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH AT CURRENT TIMING.
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA ANYWAYS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
SOME INDICATION THE SYSTEM NEARLY DISSIPATES. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  10  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 282007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE
WERE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
SOME MISSES ALREADY ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS FROM THE GFS/EURO/GEM AS
THEY POSITIONED THE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH AT CURRENT TIMING.
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA ANYWAYS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
SOME INDICATION THE SYSTEM NEARLY DISSIPATES. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  10  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281827
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  84  69  84  67 /  20  50  40  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  40  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
AUBURN      71  83  70  85  70 /  30  60  40  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  70 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281827
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  84  69  84  67 /  20  50  40  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  40  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
AUBURN      71  83  70  85  70 /  30  60  40  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  70 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281827
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  84  69  84  67 /  20  50  40  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  40  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
AUBURN      71  83  70  85  70 /  30  60  40  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  70 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281827
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  84  69  84  67 /  20  50  40  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  40  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
AUBURN      71  83  70  85  70 /  30  60  40  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  70 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281827
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  84  69  84  67 /  20  50  40  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  40  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
AUBURN      71  83  70  85  70 /  30  60  40  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  70 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281827
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  84  69  84  67 /  20  50  40  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  40  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
AUBURN      71  83  70  85  70 /  30  60  40  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  70 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281827
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  84  69  84  67 /  20  50  40  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  40  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
AUBURN      71  83  70  85  70 /  30  60  40  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  70 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281827
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  84  69  84  67 /  20  50  40  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  40  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
AUBURN      71  83  70  85  70 /  30  60  40  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  70 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281736 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1052 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
THIS MORNING WAS CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER
FROM NW GA AND CENTRAL AL MOVING INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RADAR IS
CLEAR AND WILL HOLD ONTO A DRY FORECAST FOR ANOTHER DAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF...RESPONSIBLE FOR STREAMING CLOUDS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT CLOUD
COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE...ADJUSTED THE TREND OF CLOUD
COVER FOR THE DAY AND LOWERED THE TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO. NORTHWEST
AL HAS SEEN MORE SUNSHINE THUS FAR TODAY AND EVEN THOUGH THE OTHER
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT LAGGING FAR BEHIND ON TEMPS...CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PROGRESS NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 15 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MVFR MIST...GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...AS THE
MIST BEGINS TO MIX OUT.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281736 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1052 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
THIS MORNING WAS CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER
FROM NW GA AND CENTRAL AL MOVING INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RADAR IS
CLEAR AND WILL HOLD ONTO A DRY FORECAST FOR ANOTHER DAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF...RESPONSIBLE FOR STREAMING CLOUDS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT CLOUD
COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE...ADJUSTED THE TREND OF CLOUD
COVER FOR THE DAY AND LOWERED THE TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO. NORTHWEST
AL HAS SEEN MORE SUNSHINE THUS FAR TODAY AND EVEN THOUGH THE OTHER
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT LAGGING FAR BEHIND ON TEMPS...CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PROGRESS NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 15 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MVFR MIST...GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...AS THE
MIST BEGINS TO MIX OUT.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 281727 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...PACKAGE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 66 DEGREES AT THE MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIED THE RECORD LOW FOR MOBILE
ORIGINALLY SET IN 1992 AND EQUALED IN 2013. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  69  90  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  88  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      75  87  75  88  77 /  30  40  30  30  20
EVERGREEN   70  88  68  90  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  66  89  68  91  69 /  10  20  05  20  10
CAMDEN      70  87  69  90  70 /  10  40  05  20  20
CRESTVIEW   69  88  70  90  72 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281727 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...PACKAGE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 66 DEGREES AT THE MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIED THE RECORD LOW FOR MOBILE
ORIGINALLY SET IN 1992 AND EQUALED IN 2013. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  69  90  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  88  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      75  87  75  88  77 /  30  40  30  30  20
EVERGREEN   70  88  68  90  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  66  89  68  91  69 /  10  20  05  20  10
CAMDEN      70  87  69  90  70 /  10  40  05  20  20
CRESTVIEW   69  88  70  90  72 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281727 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...PACKAGE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 66 DEGREES AT THE MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIED THE RECORD LOW FOR MOBILE
ORIGINALLY SET IN 1992 AND EQUALED IN 2013. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  69  90  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  88  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      75  87  75  88  77 /  30  40  30  30  20
EVERGREEN   70  88  68  90  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  66  89  68  91  69 /  10  20  05  20  10
CAMDEN      70  87  69  90  70 /  10  40  05  20  20
CRESTVIEW   69  88  70  90  72 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 281727 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...PACKAGE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 66 DEGREES AT THE MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIED THE RECORD LOW FOR MOBILE
ORIGINALLY SET IN 1992 AND EQUALED IN 2013. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  69  90  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  88  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      75  87  75  88  77 /  30  40  30  30  20
EVERGREEN   70  88  68  90  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  66  89  68  91  69 /  10  20  05  20  10
CAMDEN      70  87  69  90  70 /  10  40  05  20  20
CRESTVIEW   69  88  70  90  72 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 281725
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 66 DEGREES AT THE MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIED THE RECORD LOW FOR MOBILE
ORIGINALLY SET IN 1992 AND EQUALED IN 2013. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  69  90  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  88  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      75  87  75  88  77 /  30  40  30  30  20
EVERGREEN   70  88  68  90  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  66  89  68  91  69 /  10  20  05  20  10
CAMDEN      70  87  69  90  70 /  10  40  05  20  20
CRESTVIEW   69  88  70  90  72 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281725
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 66 DEGREES AT THE MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIED THE RECORD LOW FOR MOBILE
ORIGINALLY SET IN 1992 AND EQUALED IN 2013. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  69  90  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  88  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      75  87  75  88  77 /  30  40  30  30  20
EVERGREEN   70  88  68  90  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  66  89  68  91  69 /  10  20  05  20  10
CAMDEN      70  87  69  90  70 /  10  40  05  20  20
CRESTVIEW   69  88  70  90  72 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281725
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 66 DEGREES AT THE MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIED THE RECORD LOW FOR MOBILE
ORIGINALLY SET IN 1992 AND EQUALED IN 2013. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  69  90  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  88  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      75  87  75  88  77 /  30  40  30  30  20
EVERGREEN   70  88  68  90  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  66  89  68  91  69 /  10  20  05  20  10
CAMDEN      70  87  69  90  70 /  10  40  05  20  20
CRESTVIEW   69  88  70  90  72 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281725
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 66 DEGREES AT THE MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIED THE RECORD LOW FOR MOBILE
ORIGINALLY SET IN 1992 AND EQUALED IN 2013. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  69  90  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  88  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      75  87  75  88  77 /  30  40  30  30  20
EVERGREEN   70  88  68  90  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  66  89  68  91  69 /  10  20  05  20  10
CAMDEN      70  87  69  90  70 /  10  40  05  20  20
CRESTVIEW   69  88  70  90  72 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281725
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 66 DEGREES AT THE MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIED THE RECORD LOW FOR MOBILE
ORIGINALLY SET IN 1992 AND EQUALED IN 2013. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  69  90  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  88  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      75  87  75  88  77 /  30  40  30  30  20
EVERGREEN   70  88  68  90  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  66  89  68  91  69 /  10  20  05  20  10
CAMDEN      70  87  69  90  70 /  10  40  05  20  20
CRESTVIEW   69  88  70  90  72 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281725
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KPNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. 05/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 66 DEGREES AT THE MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIED THE RECORD LOW FOR MOBILE
ORIGINALLY SET IN 1992 AND EQUALED IN 2013. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  69  90  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  88  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      75  87  75  88  77 /  30  40  30  30  20
EVERGREEN   70  88  68  90  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  66  89  68  91  69 /  10  20  05  20  10
CAMDEN      70  87  69  90  70 /  10  40  05  20  20
CRESTVIEW   69  88  70  90  72 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281552 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1052 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING WAS CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER
FROM NW GA AND CENTRAL AL MOVING INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RADAR IS
CLEAR AND WILL HOLD ONTO A DRY FORECAST FOR ANOTHER DAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF...RESPONSIBLE FOR STREAMING CLOUDS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT CLOUD
COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE...ADJUSTED THE TREND OF CLOUD
COVER FOR THE DAY AND LOWERED THE TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO. NORTHWEST
AL HAS SEEN MORE SUNSHINE THUS FAR TODAY AND EVEN THOUGH THE OTHER
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT LAGGING FAR BEHIND ON TEMPS...CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PROGRESS NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SELY FLOW
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT WHICH MAY
YIELD LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM WILL DEVELOP DUE
TO BR, MOSTLY LIKELY BY 10Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281552 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1052 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING WAS CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER
FROM NW GA AND CENTRAL AL MOVING INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RADAR IS
CLEAR AND WILL HOLD ONTO A DRY FORECAST FOR ANOTHER DAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF...RESPONSIBLE FOR STREAMING CLOUDS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT CLOUD
COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE...ADJUSTED THE TREND OF CLOUD
COVER FOR THE DAY AND LOWERED THE TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO. NORTHWEST
AL HAS SEEN MORE SUNSHINE THUS FAR TODAY AND EVEN THOUGH THE OTHER
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT LAGGING FAR BEHIND ON TEMPS...CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PROGRESS NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SELY FLOW
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT WHICH MAY
YIELD LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM WILL DEVELOP DUE
TO BR, MOSTLY LIKELY BY 10Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281249 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
749 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 66 DEGREES AT THE MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIED THE RECORD LOW FOR MOBILE
ORIGINALLY SET IN 1992 AND EQUALED IN 2013. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
28.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. A
FEW TSRA MAY POP UP OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOME
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  69  88  69  90 /  05  10  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   90  73  87  73  88 /  10  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  75  88 /  20  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  88  68  90 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  93  66  89  68  91 /  00  10  20  05  20
CAMDEN      93  70  87  69  90 /  10  10  40  05  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  88  70  90 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281249 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
749 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 66 DEGREES AT THE MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIED THE RECORD LOW FOR MOBILE
ORIGINALLY SET IN 1992 AND EQUALED IN 2013. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
28.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. A
FEW TSRA MAY POP UP OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOME
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  69  88  69  90 /  05  10  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   90  73  87  73  88 /  10  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  75  88 /  20  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  88  68  90 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  93  66  89  68  91 /  00  10  20  05  20
CAMDEN      93  70  87  69  90 /  10  10  40  05  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  88  70  90 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281204 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
704 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE WOULD LIKELY
SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE
REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE GFS PULLS
IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281204 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
704 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE WOULD LIKELY
SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE
REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE GFS PULLS
IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08



000
FXUS64 KBMX 281204 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
704 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE WOULD LIKELY
SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE
REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE GFS PULLS
IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281204 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
704 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE WOULD LIKELY
SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE
REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE GFS PULLS
IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281144
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. A
FEW TSRA MAY POP UP OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOME
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  69  88  69  90 /  05  10  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   90  73  87  73  88 /  10  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  75  88 /  20  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  88  68  90 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  93  66  89  68  91 /  00  10  20  05  20
CAMDEN      93  70  87  69  90 /  10  10  40  05  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  88  70  90 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281144
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. A
FEW TSRA MAY POP UP OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOME
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  69  88  69  90 /  05  10  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   90  73  87  73  88 /  10  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  75  88 /  20  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  88  68  90 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  93  66  89  68  91 /  00  10  20  05  20
CAMDEN      93  70  87  69  90 /  10  10  40  05  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  88  70  90 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 281144
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. A
FEW TSRA MAY POP UP OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOME
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  69  88  69  90 /  05  10  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   90  73  87  73  88 /  10  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  75  88 /  20  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  88  68  90 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  93  66  89  68  91 /  00  10  20  05  20
CAMDEN      93  70  87  69  90 /  10  10  40  05  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  88  70  90 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281144
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. A
FEW TSRA MAY POP UP OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOME
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  69  88  69  90 /  05  10  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   90  73  87  73  88 /  10  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  75  88 /  20  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  88  68  90 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  93  66  89  68  91 /  00  10  20  05  20
CAMDEN      93  70  87  69  90 /  10  10  40  05  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  88  70  90 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281144
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. A
FEW TSRA MAY POP UP OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOME
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  69  88  69  90 /  05  10  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   90  73  87  73  88 /  10  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  75  88 /  20  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  88  68  90 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  93  66  89  68  91 /  00  10  20  05  20
CAMDEN      93  70  87  69  90 /  10  10  40  05  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  88  70  90 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 281144
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
28.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. A
FEW TSRA MAY POP UP OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOME
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  69  88  69  90 /  05  10  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   90  73  87  73  88 /  10  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  75  88 /  20  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  88  68  90 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  93  66  89  68  91 /  00  10  20  05  20
CAMDEN      93  70  87  69  90 /  10  10  40  05  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  88  70  90 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281134 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ABATE LATER TONIGHT AS
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN EXITING TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES
CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY THIS UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT, IT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE PREVAILING LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW ACTING TO SLOWLY SATURATE THE MID LEVELS. THOUGH
SATURATION WILL NOT OCCUR RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT, LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ADVECTING FROM THE EAST SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTION SHIFT TO EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR LOW-MID LEVELS.
THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ACT TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. SO THAT BY
SATURDAY, SATURATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN
VIEW REPRESENTATION OF INSTABILITY SHOW STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST,
BUT WITHOUT APPRECIABLE WIND SHEAR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR
TO BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. DUE TO THE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY, WILL
RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOONS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, WITH THE TN VALLEY BACK IN A
MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ON BOTH DAYS, EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSE TO 90 WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THESE HIGHS.

THEN, BY SUNDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW APPEARS TO BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS (MERGING WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH) RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
BECAUSE OF ITS PROGGED EXIT, HAVE TAPERED POPS TO MAINLY NE AL/S
MIDDLE TN ON MONDAY. A SHEARED TROUGH THEN FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MI/IL/IN. THIS
PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND THE
TRACK OF TC ERIKA, IF IT SURVIVES, WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
INTERACTIONS WITH THIS SHEARED TROUGH AND POSSIBLE DIRECT/INDIRECT
IMPACTS FROM TC ERIKA. FURTHERMORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST BELOW AVERAGE (30 YEAR) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 60S).
HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS (I.E. RETURN OF SUMMER
LIKE HUMIDITY), EXPECT IT TO FEEL WARMER WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY MID WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SELY FLOW
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT WHICH MAY
YIELD LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM WILL DEVELOP DUE
TO BR, MOSTLY LIKELY BY 10Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 281134 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ABATE LATER TONIGHT AS
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN EXITING TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES
CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY THIS UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT, IT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE PREVAILING LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW ACTING TO SLOWLY SATURATE THE MID LEVELS. THOUGH
SATURATION WILL NOT OCCUR RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT, LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ADVECTING FROM THE EAST SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTION SHIFT TO EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR LOW-MID LEVELS.
THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ACT TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. SO THAT BY
SATURDAY, SATURATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN
VIEW REPRESENTATION OF INSTABILITY SHOW STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST,
BUT WITHOUT APPRECIABLE WIND SHEAR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR
TO BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. DUE TO THE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY, WILL
RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOONS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, WITH THE TN VALLEY BACK IN A
MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ON BOTH DAYS, EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSE TO 90 WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THESE HIGHS.

THEN, BY SUNDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW APPEARS TO BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS (MERGING WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH) RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
BECAUSE OF ITS PROGGED EXIT, HAVE TAPERED POPS TO MAINLY NE AL/S
MIDDLE TN ON MONDAY. A SHEARED TROUGH THEN FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MI/IL/IN. THIS
PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND THE
TRACK OF TC ERIKA, IF IT SURVIVES, WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
INTERACTIONS WITH THIS SHEARED TROUGH AND POSSIBLE DIRECT/INDIRECT
IMPACTS FROM TC ERIKA. FURTHERMORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST BELOW AVERAGE (30 YEAR) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 60S).
HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS (I.E. RETURN OF SUMMER
LIKE HUMIDITY), EXPECT IT TO FEEL WARMER WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY MID WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SELY FLOW
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT WHICH MAY
YIELD LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM WILL DEVELOP DUE
TO BR, MOSTLY LIKELY BY 10Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281134 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ABATE LATER TONIGHT AS
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN EXITING TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES
CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY THIS UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT, IT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE PREVAILING LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW ACTING TO SLOWLY SATURATE THE MID LEVELS. THOUGH
SATURATION WILL NOT OCCUR RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT, LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ADVECTING FROM THE EAST SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTION SHIFT TO EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR LOW-MID LEVELS.
THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ACT TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. SO THAT BY
SATURDAY, SATURATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN
VIEW REPRESENTATION OF INSTABILITY SHOW STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST,
BUT WITHOUT APPRECIABLE WIND SHEAR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR
TO BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. DUE TO THE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY, WILL
RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOONS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, WITH THE TN VALLEY BACK IN A
MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ON BOTH DAYS, EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSE TO 90 WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THESE HIGHS.

THEN, BY SUNDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW APPEARS TO BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS (MERGING WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH) RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
BECAUSE OF ITS PROGGED EXIT, HAVE TAPERED POPS TO MAINLY NE AL/S
MIDDLE TN ON MONDAY. A SHEARED TROUGH THEN FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MI/IL/IN. THIS
PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND THE
TRACK OF TC ERIKA, IF IT SURVIVES, WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
INTERACTIONS WITH THIS SHEARED TROUGH AND POSSIBLE DIRECT/INDIRECT
IMPACTS FROM TC ERIKA. FURTHERMORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST BELOW AVERAGE (30 YEAR) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 60S).
HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS (I.E. RETURN OF SUMMER
LIKE HUMIDITY), EXPECT IT TO FEEL WARMER WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY MID WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SELY FLOW
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT WHICH MAY
YIELD LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM WILL DEVELOP DUE
TO BR, MOSTLY LIKELY BY 10Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281134 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ABATE LATER TONIGHT AS
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN EXITING TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES
CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY THIS UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT, IT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE PREVAILING LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW ACTING TO SLOWLY SATURATE THE MID LEVELS. THOUGH
SATURATION WILL NOT OCCUR RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT, LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ADVECTING FROM THE EAST SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTION SHIFT TO EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR LOW-MID LEVELS.
THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ACT TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. SO THAT BY
SATURDAY, SATURATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN
VIEW REPRESENTATION OF INSTABILITY SHOW STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST,
BUT WITHOUT APPRECIABLE WIND SHEAR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR
TO BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. DUE TO THE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY, WILL
RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOONS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, WITH THE TN VALLEY BACK IN A
MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ON BOTH DAYS, EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSE TO 90 WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THESE HIGHS.

THEN, BY SUNDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW APPEARS TO BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS (MERGING WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH) RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
BECAUSE OF ITS PROGGED EXIT, HAVE TAPERED POPS TO MAINLY NE AL/S
MIDDLE TN ON MONDAY. A SHEARED TROUGH THEN FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MI/IL/IN. THIS
PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND THE
TRACK OF TC ERIKA, IF IT SURVIVES, WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
INTERACTIONS WITH THIS SHEARED TROUGH AND POSSIBLE DIRECT/INDIRECT
IMPACTS FROM TC ERIKA. FURTHERMORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST BELOW AVERAGE (30 YEAR) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 60S).
HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS (I.E. RETURN OF SUMMER
LIKE HUMIDITY), EXPECT IT TO FEEL WARMER WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY MID WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SELY FLOW
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT WHICH MAY
YIELD LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM WILL DEVELOP DUE
TO BR, MOSTLY LIKELY BY 10Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281134 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ABATE LATER TONIGHT AS
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN EXITING TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES
CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY THIS UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT, IT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE PREVAILING LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW ACTING TO SLOWLY SATURATE THE MID LEVELS. THOUGH
SATURATION WILL NOT OCCUR RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT, LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ADVECTING FROM THE EAST SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTION SHIFT TO EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR LOW-MID LEVELS.
THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ACT TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. SO THAT BY
SATURDAY, SATURATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN
VIEW REPRESENTATION OF INSTABILITY SHOW STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST,
BUT WITHOUT APPRECIABLE WIND SHEAR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR
TO BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. DUE TO THE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY, WILL
RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOONS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, WITH THE TN VALLEY BACK IN A
MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ON BOTH DAYS, EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSE TO 90 WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THESE HIGHS.

THEN, BY SUNDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW APPEARS TO BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS (MERGING WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH) RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
BECAUSE OF ITS PROGGED EXIT, HAVE TAPERED POPS TO MAINLY NE AL/S
MIDDLE TN ON MONDAY. A SHEARED TROUGH THEN FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MI/IL/IN. THIS
PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND THE
TRACK OF TC ERIKA, IF IT SURVIVES, WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
INTERACTIONS WITH THIS SHEARED TROUGH AND POSSIBLE DIRECT/INDIRECT
IMPACTS FROM TC ERIKA. FURTHERMORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST BELOW AVERAGE (30 YEAR) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 60S).
HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS (I.E. RETURN OF SUMMER
LIKE HUMIDITY), EXPECT IT TO FEEL WARMER WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY MID WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SELY FLOW
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT WHICH MAY
YIELD LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM WILL DEVELOP DUE
TO BR, MOSTLY LIKELY BY 10Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281134 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ABATE LATER TONIGHT AS
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN EXITING TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES
CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY THIS UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT, IT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE PREVAILING LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW ACTING TO SLOWLY SATURATE THE MID LEVELS. THOUGH
SATURATION WILL NOT OCCUR RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT, LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ADVECTING FROM THE EAST SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTION SHIFT TO EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR LOW-MID LEVELS.
THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ACT TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. SO THAT BY
SATURDAY, SATURATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN
VIEW REPRESENTATION OF INSTABILITY SHOW STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST,
BUT WITHOUT APPRECIABLE WIND SHEAR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR
TO BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. DUE TO THE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY, WILL
RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOONS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, WITH THE TN VALLEY BACK IN A
MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ON BOTH DAYS, EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSE TO 90 WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THESE HIGHS.

THEN, BY SUNDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW APPEARS TO BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS (MERGING WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH) RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
BECAUSE OF ITS PROGGED EXIT, HAVE TAPERED POPS TO MAINLY NE AL/S
MIDDLE TN ON MONDAY. A SHEARED TROUGH THEN FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MI/IL/IN. THIS
PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND THE
TRACK OF TC ERIKA, IF IT SURVIVES, WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
INTERACTIONS WITH THIS SHEARED TROUGH AND POSSIBLE DIRECT/INDIRECT
IMPACTS FROM TC ERIKA. FURTHERMORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST BELOW AVERAGE (30 YEAR) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 60S).
HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS (I.E. RETURN OF SUMMER
LIKE HUMIDITY), EXPECT IT TO FEEL WARMER WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY MID WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SELY FLOW
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT WHICH MAY
YIELD LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM WILL DEVELOP DUE
TO BR, MOSTLY LIKELY BY 10Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281134 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ABATE LATER TONIGHT AS
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN EXITING TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES
CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY THIS UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT, IT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE PREVAILING LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW ACTING TO SLOWLY SATURATE THE MID LEVELS. THOUGH
SATURATION WILL NOT OCCUR RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT, LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ADVECTING FROM THE EAST SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTION SHIFT TO EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR LOW-MID LEVELS.
THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ACT TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. SO THAT BY
SATURDAY, SATURATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN
VIEW REPRESENTATION OF INSTABILITY SHOW STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST,
BUT WITHOUT APPRECIABLE WIND SHEAR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR
TO BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. DUE TO THE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY, WILL
RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOONS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, WITH THE TN VALLEY BACK IN A
MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ON BOTH DAYS, EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSE TO 90 WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THESE HIGHS.

THEN, BY SUNDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW APPEARS TO BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS (MERGING WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH) RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
BECAUSE OF ITS PROGGED EXIT, HAVE TAPERED POPS TO MAINLY NE AL/S
MIDDLE TN ON MONDAY. A SHEARED TROUGH THEN FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MI/IL/IN. THIS
PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND THE
TRACK OF TC ERIKA, IF IT SURVIVES, WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
INTERACTIONS WITH THIS SHEARED TROUGH AND POSSIBLE DIRECT/INDIRECT
IMPACTS FROM TC ERIKA. FURTHERMORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST BELOW AVERAGE (30 YEAR) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 60S).
HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS (I.E. RETURN OF SUMMER
LIKE HUMIDITY), EXPECT IT TO FEEL WARMER WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY MID WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SELY FLOW
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT WHICH MAY
YIELD LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM WILL DEVELOP DUE
TO BR, MOSTLY LIKELY BY 10Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281134 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ABATE LATER TONIGHT AS
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN EXITING TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES
CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY THIS UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT, IT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE PREVAILING LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW ACTING TO SLOWLY SATURATE THE MID LEVELS. THOUGH
SATURATION WILL NOT OCCUR RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT, LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ADVECTING FROM THE EAST SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTION SHIFT TO EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR LOW-MID LEVELS.
THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ACT TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. SO THAT BY
SATURDAY, SATURATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN
VIEW REPRESENTATION OF INSTABILITY SHOW STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST,
BUT WITHOUT APPRECIABLE WIND SHEAR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR
TO BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. DUE TO THE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY, WILL
RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOONS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, WITH THE TN VALLEY BACK IN A
MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ON BOTH DAYS, EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSE TO 90 WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THESE HIGHS.

THEN, BY SUNDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW APPEARS TO BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS (MERGING WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH) RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
BECAUSE OF ITS PROGGED EXIT, HAVE TAPERED POPS TO MAINLY NE AL/S
MIDDLE TN ON MONDAY. A SHEARED TROUGH THEN FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MI/IL/IN. THIS
PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND THE
TRACK OF TC ERIKA, IF IT SURVIVES, WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
INTERACTIONS WITH THIS SHEARED TROUGH AND POSSIBLE DIRECT/INDIRECT
IMPACTS FROM TC ERIKA. FURTHERMORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST BELOW AVERAGE (30 YEAR) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 60S).
HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS (I.E. RETURN OF SUMMER
LIKE HUMIDITY), EXPECT IT TO FEEL WARMER WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY MID WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SELY FLOW
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT WHICH MAY
YIELD LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM WILL DEVELOP DUE
TO BR, MOSTLY LIKELY BY 10Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281134 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ABATE LATER TONIGHT AS
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN EXITING TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES
CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY THIS UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT, IT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE PREVAILING LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW ACTING TO SLOWLY SATURATE THE MID LEVELS. THOUGH
SATURATION WILL NOT OCCUR RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT, LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ADVECTING FROM THE EAST SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTION SHIFT TO EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR LOW-MID LEVELS.
THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ACT TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. SO THAT BY
SATURDAY, SATURATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN
VIEW REPRESENTATION OF INSTABILITY SHOW STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST,
BUT WITHOUT APPRECIABLE WIND SHEAR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR
TO BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. DUE TO THE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY, WILL
RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOONS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, WITH THE TN VALLEY BACK IN A
MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ON BOTH DAYS, EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSE TO 90 WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THESE HIGHS.

THEN, BY SUNDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW APPEARS TO BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS (MERGING WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH) RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
BECAUSE OF ITS PROGGED EXIT, HAVE TAPERED POPS TO MAINLY NE AL/S
MIDDLE TN ON MONDAY. A SHEARED TROUGH THEN FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MI/IL/IN. THIS
PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND THE
TRACK OF TC ERIKA, IF IT SURVIVES, WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
INTERACTIONS WITH THIS SHEARED TROUGH AND POSSIBLE DIRECT/INDIRECT
IMPACTS FROM TC ERIKA. FURTHERMORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST BELOW AVERAGE (30 YEAR) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 60S).
HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS (I.E. RETURN OF SUMMER
LIKE HUMIDITY), EXPECT IT TO FEEL WARMER WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY MID WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SELY FLOW
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT WHICH MAY
YIELD LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM WILL DEVELOP DUE
TO BR, MOSTLY LIKELY BY 10Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281134 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ABATE LATER TONIGHT AS
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN EXITING TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES
CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY THIS UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT, IT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE PREVAILING LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW ACTING TO SLOWLY SATURATE THE MID LEVELS. THOUGH
SATURATION WILL NOT OCCUR RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT, LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ADVECTING FROM THE EAST SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTION SHIFT TO EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR LOW-MID LEVELS.
THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ACT TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. SO THAT BY
SATURDAY, SATURATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN
VIEW REPRESENTATION OF INSTABILITY SHOW STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST,
BUT WITHOUT APPRECIABLE WIND SHEAR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR
TO BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. DUE TO THE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY, WILL
RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOONS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, WITH THE TN VALLEY BACK IN A
MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ON BOTH DAYS, EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSE TO 90 WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THESE HIGHS.

THEN, BY SUNDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW APPEARS TO BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS (MERGING WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH) RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
BECAUSE OF ITS PROGGED EXIT, HAVE TAPERED POPS TO MAINLY NE AL/S
MIDDLE TN ON MONDAY. A SHEARED TROUGH THEN FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MI/IL/IN. THIS
PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND THE
TRACK OF TC ERIKA, IF IT SURVIVES, WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
INTERACTIONS WITH THIS SHEARED TROUGH AND POSSIBLE DIRECT/INDIRECT
IMPACTS FROM TC ERIKA. FURTHERMORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST BELOW AVERAGE (30 YEAR) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 60S).
HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS (I.E. RETURN OF SUMMER
LIKE HUMIDITY), EXPECT IT TO FEEL WARMER WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY MID WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SELY FLOW
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT WHICH MAY
YIELD LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM WILL DEVELOP DUE
TO BR, MOSTLY LIKELY BY 10Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 280903
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 28.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
/10

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN
THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  69  88  69  90 /  05  10  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   90  73  87  73  88 /  10  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  75  88 /  20  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  88  68  90 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  93  66  89  68  91 /  00  10  20  05  20
CAMDEN      93  70  87  69  90 /  10  10  40  05  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  88  70  90 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 280903
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 28.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
/10

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN
THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  69  88  69  90 /  05  10  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   90  73  87  73  88 /  10  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  75  88 /  20  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  88  68  90 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  93  66  89  68  91 /  00  10  20  05  20
CAMDEN      93  70  87  69  90 /  10  10  40  05  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  88  70  90 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 280903
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 28.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
/10

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN
THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  69  88  69  90 /  05  10  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   90  73  87  73  88 /  10  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  75  88 /  20  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  88  68  90 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  93  66  89  68  91 /  00  10  20  05  20
CAMDEN      93  70  87  69  90 /  10  10  40  05  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  88  70  90 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 280903
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 28.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
/10

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN
THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  69  88  69  90 /  05  10  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   90  73  87  73  88 /  10  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  75  88 /  20  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  88  68  90 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  93  66  89  68  91 /  00  10  20  05  20
CAMDEN      93  70  87  69  90 /  10  10  40  05  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  88  70  90 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 280902 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE
WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE
GFS PULLS IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 280902 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE
WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE
GFS PULLS IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280902 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE
WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE
GFS PULLS IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280902 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE
WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE
GFS PULLS IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 280856
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS
NOW BRINGING WHAT COULD BE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE
WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
THE GFS PULLS IN WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA
COAST. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280856
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS
NOW BRINGING WHAT COULD BE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE
WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
THE GFS PULLS IN WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA
COAST. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 280856
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS
NOW BRINGING WHAT COULD BE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE
WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
THE GFS PULLS IN WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA
COAST. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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