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000
FXUS64 KMOB 261822 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1222 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH
LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   35  62  34  60  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  36  65  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      35  62  34  59  39 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   39  64  34  60  39 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 261822 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1222 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH
LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   35  62  34  60  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  36  65  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      35  62  34  59  39 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   39  64  34  60  39 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 261752
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1152 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT PRODUCED THE SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
HAS PUSHED INTO GEORGIA. A LARGE AREA OF WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS PULLING OFF
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THIS AREA WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. FOR NOW THE CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT SOME DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUDS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA
ON THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY
NIGHT...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE...AND INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...IT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY DAYS AS
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO ALABAMA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE DUE TO
CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICO. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PICK UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY
MIXING OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE
REMAINING IMPACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OF 12 TO 14 KNOTS AND SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  32  49  29  51 /  10   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    45  32  52  30  53 /  10   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  34  53  32  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  35  56  34  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  35  55  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  34  53  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  51  35  60  34  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  35  59  35  57 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 261745 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1041 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
UNLIKE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS WE`VE EXPERIENCED
24 HOURS AGO...CLOUDY SKIES RULED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS
OF THE LATE MORNING. THIS WAS CAUSED BY POST SYSTEM LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL STATES TO
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE
DAYBREAK...MORE CLOUDS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM OF OUR REGION. A BREAK
IN THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SSE FROM THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THUS SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I65 MAY GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN.

ON A LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION YESTERDAY WAS MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AS IS
SOMETIMES THE CASE IN THE COLDER MONTHS...A NEW SURFACE LOW WAS
FORMING EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IT SHOULD MOVE
NORTHWARD...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF CAUSING NOTABLE SNOWFALL FOR
PARTS OF NE CONUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH QUIETER HERE. A BROAD SCALE NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN HALF OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A PREVAILING NW
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THUS WITH CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 40S. GIVEN
POSSIBLE BREAKS AND/OR A THINNING IN THE CLOUDS OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS...HAVE BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO IN SOME
SPOTS. UPDATES FOR THE AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUED FLOWING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE DEEP SOUTH. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MIXING...
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WERE APPARENT OVER WESTERN TN AND
NORTHERN MS. THUS HAVE NOTED A RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR KMSL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPO VFR CIGS AT KHSV (BUT BECOMING MVFR EARLY IN
THE EVENING). CIGS DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BECOME VFR...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR CRITERIA BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261745 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1041 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
UNLIKE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS WE`VE EXPERIENCED
24 HOURS AGO...CLOUDY SKIES RULED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS
OF THE LATE MORNING. THIS WAS CAUSED BY POST SYSTEM LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL STATES TO
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE
DAYBREAK...MORE CLOUDS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM OF OUR REGION. A BREAK
IN THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SSE FROM THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THUS SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I65 MAY GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN.

ON A LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION YESTERDAY WAS MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AS IS
SOMETIMES THE CASE IN THE COLDER MONTHS...A NEW SURFACE LOW WAS
FORMING EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IT SHOULD MOVE
NORTHWARD...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF CAUSING NOTABLE SNOWFALL FOR
PARTS OF NE CONUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH QUIETER HERE. A BROAD SCALE NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN HALF OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A PREVAILING NW
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THUS WITH CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 40S. GIVEN
POSSIBLE BREAKS AND/OR A THINNING IN THE CLOUDS OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS...HAVE BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO IN SOME
SPOTS. UPDATES FOR THE AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUED FLOWING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE DEEP SOUTH. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MIXING...
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WERE APPARENT OVER WESTERN TN AND
NORTHERN MS. THUS HAVE NOTED A RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR KMSL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPO VFR CIGS AT KHSV (BUT BECOMING MVFR EARLY IN
THE EVENING). CIGS DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BECOME VFR...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR CRITERIA BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 261641 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1041 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
RAISED HIGH TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARDS A TAD IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNLIKE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS WE`VE EXPERIENCED
24 HOURS AGO...CLOUDY SKIES RULED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS
OF THE LATE MORNING. THIS WAS CAUSED BY POST SYSTEM LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL STATES TO
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE
DAYBREAK...MORE CLOUDS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM OF OUR REGION. A BREAK
IN THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SSE FROM THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THUS SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I65 MAY GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN.

ON A LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION YESTERDAY WAS MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AS IS
SOMETIMES THE CASE IN THE COLDER MONTHS...A NEW SURFACE LOW WAS
FORMING EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IT SHOULD MOVE
NORTHWARD...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF CAUSING NOTABLE SNOWFALL FOR
PARTS OF NE CONUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH QUIETER HERE. A BROAD SCALE NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN HALF OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A PREVAILING NW
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THUS WITH CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 40S. GIVEN
POSSIBLE BREAKS AND/OR A THINNING IN THE CLOUDS OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS...HAVE BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO IN SOME
SPOTS. UPDATES FOR THE AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 508 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE
NEXT 6-8 HOURS WITH IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 12Z-13Z.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS FROM THE NW UNTIL 19Z-20Z
WHEN WINDS RELAX. THEN, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER
19-20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261641 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1041 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
RAISED HIGH TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARDS A TAD IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNLIKE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS WE`VE EXPERIENCED
24 HOURS AGO...CLOUDY SKIES RULED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS
OF THE LATE MORNING. THIS WAS CAUSED BY POST SYSTEM LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL STATES TO
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE
DAYBREAK...MORE CLOUDS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM OF OUR REGION. A BREAK
IN THE STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SSE FROM THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THUS SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I65 MAY GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN.

ON A LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION YESTERDAY WAS MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AS IS
SOMETIMES THE CASE IN THE COLDER MONTHS...A NEW SURFACE LOW WAS
FORMING EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IT SHOULD MOVE
NORTHWARD...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF CAUSING NOTABLE SNOWFALL FOR
PARTS OF NE CONUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH QUIETER HERE. A BROAD SCALE NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN HALF OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A PREVAILING NW
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THUS WITH CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 40S. GIVEN
POSSIBLE BREAKS AND/OR A THINNING IN THE CLOUDS OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS...HAVE BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO IN SOME
SPOTS. UPDATES FOR THE AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SENT.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 508 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE
NEXT 6-8 HOURS WITH IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 12Z-13Z.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS FROM THE NW UNTIL 19Z-20Z
WHEN WINDS RELAX. THEN, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER
19-20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 261121
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
521 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT PRODUCED THE SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
HAS PUSHED INTO GEORGIA. A LARGE AREA OF WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS PULLING OFF
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THIS AREA WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. FOR NOW THE CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT SOME DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUDS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA
ON THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY
NIGHT...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE...AND INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...IT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY DAYS AS
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO ALABAMA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE DUE TO
CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICO. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PICK UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA. WE COULD SEE A FEW
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NOT EXPECTING AN ACCUMULATION SO DID NOT INCLUDE AT ANY SITE.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
UP TO 22 KTS...THROUGH 21Z OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS...THE WINDS CALM DOWN AND CEILINGS IMPROVE. MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE IN THE CYCLE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  32  49  29  51 /  10   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    45  32  52  30  53 /  10   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  34  53  32  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  35  56  34  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  35  55  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  34  53  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  51  35  60  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  35  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 261108 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
508 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE
NEXT 6-8 HOURS WITH IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 12Z-13Z.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS FROM THE NW UNTIL 19Z-20Z
WHEN WINDS RELAX. THEN, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER
19-20Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 261108 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
508 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE
NEXT 6-8 HOURS WITH IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 12Z-13Z.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS FROM THE NW UNTIL 19Z-20Z
WHEN WINDS RELAX. THEN, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER
19-20Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261055
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      56  39  65  38  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   57  42  64  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      57  44  63  42  57 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   53  35  62  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  36  65  35  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      54  35  62  34  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   55  39  64  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261055
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      56  39  65  38  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   57  42  64  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      57  44  63  42  57 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   53  35  62  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  36  65  35  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      54  35  62  34  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   55  39  64  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261055
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      56  39  65  38  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   57  42  64  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      57  44  63  42  57 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   53  35  62  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  36  65  35  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      54  35  62  34  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   55  39  64  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261055
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      56  39  65  38  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   57  42  64  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      57  44  63  42  57 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   53  35  62  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  36  65  35  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      54  35  62  34  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   55  39  64  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 260937
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT PRODUCED THE SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
HAS PUSHED INTO GEORGIA. A LARGE AREA OF WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS PULLING OFF
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THIS AREA WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. FOR NOW THE CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT SOME DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUDS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA
ON THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY
NIGHT...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE...AND INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...IT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY DAYS AS
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO ALABAMA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE DUE TO
CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICO. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PICK UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS HAVE ENDED TONIGHT...AND OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-19KTS. LOW CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD
WITH MVFR CIGS...AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FOR
TOI AND MGM. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  32  49  29  51 /  10   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    45  32  52  30  53 /  10   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  34  53  32  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  35  56  34  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  35  55  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  34  53  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  51  35  60  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  35  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 260937
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT PRODUCED THE SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
HAS PUSHED INTO GEORGIA. A LARGE AREA OF WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS PULLING OFF
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THIS AREA WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. FOR NOW THE CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT SOME DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUDS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA
ON THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY
NIGHT...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE...AND INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...IT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY DAYS AS
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO ALABAMA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE DUE TO
CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICO. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PICK UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS HAVE ENDED TONIGHT...AND OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-19KTS. LOW CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD
WITH MVFR CIGS...AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FOR
TOI AND MGM. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  32  49  29  51 /  10   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    45  32  52  30  53 /  10   0  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  34  53  32  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  35  56  34  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  35  55  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  34  53  33  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  51  35  60  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  35  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 260836 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z.
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING -SN/FLURRIES AND
ENDING ARND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  34  47  31 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        43  33  46  30 /  10  10   0   0
VINEMONT      41  33  46  29 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  38  32  41  29 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   40  31  45  30 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    40  31  47  29 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 260836 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z.
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING -SN/FLURRIES AND
ENDING ARND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  34  47  31 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        43  33  46  30 /  10  10   0   0
VINEMONT      41  33  46  29 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  38  32  41  29 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   40  31  45  30 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    40  31  47  29 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260836 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z.
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING -SN/FLURRIES AND
ENDING ARND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  34  47  31 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        43  33  46  30 /  10  10   0   0
VINEMONT      41  33  46  29 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  38  32  41  29 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   40  31  45  30 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    40  31  47  29 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 260836
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS. WE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF -SN/DZ THRU
15Z IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST IF
NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY
FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE THRU EARLY
TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C GRADIENT JUST
IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS. SOUNDINGS
HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS GRADIENT) AS A
WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CHC IS MUCH
GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z.
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING -SN/FLURRIES AND
ENDING ARND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  34  47  31 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        43  33  46  30 /  10  10   0   0
VINEMONT      41  33  46  29 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  38  32  41  29 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   40  31  45  30 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    40  31  47  29 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 260836 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A
POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. SFC TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE L-M40S IN OUR AREA, GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE M-U30S IN
NWRN TN AND SRN KY. AREAS OF -RA AND DZ HAVE MOVED BACK INTO SRN TN
AND NERN AL AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
MOST IF NOT ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG NNW-SSE 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE
THRU EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A 10C
GRADIENT JUST IN OUR FORECAST AREA ALONE, WHILE THE GFS IS 3-5C LESS.
SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME DZ OR VERY LGT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (EAST SIDE OF THIS
GRADIENT) AS A WEAK IMPULSE AT 7-5H DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CHC IS MUCH GREATER TO OUR NE, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
TODAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK
DOWN SOME IN DOING SO. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A SHORT WARMUP IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHC OF
-SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE DRIER
ECWMF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMO UP TOO QUICKLY. AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED. WE MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z.
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING -SN/FLURRIES AND
ENDING ARND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  34  47  31 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        43  33  46  30 /  10  10   0   0
VINEMONT      41  33  46  29 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  38  32  41  29 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   40  31  45  30 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    40  31  47  29 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 260554
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION AND UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. SFC WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME THIS EVENING...MAINLY WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS (EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE STILL BREEZY AND
GUSTY UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES).  STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SFC
HOWEVER. WITH THIS...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AS MIXING BEGINS. 12/DS

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PUBLIC OR MARINE FCSTS REQUIRED THIS
EVENING. 12/DS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25
KT ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH
MID MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 260554
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION AND UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. SFC WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME THIS EVENING...MAINLY WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS (EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE STILL BREEZY AND
GUSTY UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES).  STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SFC
HOWEVER. WITH THIS...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AS MIXING BEGINS. 12/DS

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PUBLIC OR MARINE FCSTS REQUIRED THIS
EVENING. 12/DS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25
KT ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH
MID MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 260554
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION AND UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. SFC WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME THIS EVENING...MAINLY WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS (EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE STILL BREEZY AND
GUSTY UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES).  STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SFC
HOWEVER. WITH THIS...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AS MIXING BEGINS. 12/DS

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PUBLIC OR MARINE FCSTS REQUIRED THIS
EVENING. 12/DS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25
KT ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH
MID MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 260554
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION AND UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. SFC WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME THIS EVENING...MAINLY WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS (EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE STILL BREEZY AND
GUSTY UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES).  STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SFC
HOWEVER. WITH THIS...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AS MIXING BEGINS. 12/DS

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PUBLIC OR MARINE FCSTS REQUIRED THIS
EVENING. 12/DS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25
KT ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH
MID MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KBMX 260544
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1144 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THINGS ARE QUIET THIS EVENING AFTER AN UNUSUAL SITUATION EARLIER
WITH STORMS THAT CONTAINED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY
IN THE 30S AT THAT TIME...BUT A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT CREATED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO
THE SURFACE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS HAVE ENDED TONIGHT...AND OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-19KTS. LOW CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD
WITH MVFR CIGS...AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FOR
TOI AND MGM. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  43  30  50  29 /  50  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  44  32  53  30 /  50  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  39  45  34  55  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  40  48  35  58  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      39  46  35  55  33 /  50  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      39  47  34  55  33 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  41  50  35  60  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
TROY        41  51  35  60  35 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14









000
FXUS64 KHUN 260443
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1043 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 854 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND IS CENTERED OVER KY WITH CDFNT
MOVING ACROSS THE HUN AREA. EXPECT THE CDFNT TO PUSH OUT OF THE CWA
ARND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD PRODUCE
A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER AS USUAL OUR NERN ZONES/PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
TRAVEL PROBLEMS BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICKS SPOTS ON ROADS
MONDAY MRNG...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z.
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING -SN/FLURRIES AND
ENDING ARND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 260443
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1043 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 854 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND IS CENTERED OVER KY WITH CDFNT
MOVING ACROSS THE HUN AREA. EXPECT THE CDFNT TO PUSH OUT OF THE CWA
ARND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD PRODUCE
A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER AS USUAL OUR NERN ZONES/PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
TRAVEL PROBLEMS BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICKS SPOTS ON ROADS
MONDAY MRNG...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z.
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING -SN/FLURRIES AND
ENDING ARND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 260322
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
922 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THINGS ARE QUIET THIS EVENING AFTER AN UNUSUAL SITUATION EARLIER
WITH STORMS THAT CONTAINED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY
IN THE 30S AT THAT TIME...BUT A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT CREATED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO
THE SURFACE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS. THIS THREAT WILL END BY 03Z...AND CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM AT
ANY ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF RAIN ACTIVITY...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE.  HAVE TIMED OUT RAIN ACTIVITY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS USING TEMPOS FOR THE LAST BAND TO COME
THROUGH TONIGHT.  BEHIND THAT LINE...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. LOWER CIGS COULD ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE
IN FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL ADD IN MVFR CIGS FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS UPSTREAM. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS DIMINISH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  43  30  50  29 /  50  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  44  32  53  30 /  50  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  39  45  34  55  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  40  48  35  58  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      39  46  35  55  33 /  50  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      39  47  34  55  33 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  41  50  35  60  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
TROY        41  51  35  60  35 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14






000
FXUS64 KBMX 260322
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
922 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THINGS ARE QUIET THIS EVENING AFTER AN UNUSUAL SITUATION EARLIER
WITH STORMS THAT CONTAINED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY
IN THE 30S AT THAT TIME...BUT A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT CREATED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO
THE SURFACE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS. THIS THREAT WILL END BY 03Z...AND CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM AT
ANY ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF RAIN ACTIVITY...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE.  HAVE TIMED OUT RAIN ACTIVITY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS USING TEMPOS FOR THE LAST BAND TO COME
THROUGH TONIGHT.  BEHIND THAT LINE...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. LOWER CIGS COULD ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE
IN FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL ADD IN MVFR CIGS FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS UPSTREAM. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS DIMINISH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  43  30  50  29 /  50  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  44  32  53  30 /  50  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  39  45  34  55  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  40  48  35  58  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      39  46  35  55  33 /  50  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      39  47  34  55  33 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  41  50  35  60  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
TROY        41  51  35  60  35 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14






000
FXUS64 KBMX 260322
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
922 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THINGS ARE QUIET THIS EVENING AFTER AN UNUSUAL SITUATION EARLIER
WITH STORMS THAT CONTAINED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY
IN THE 30S AT THAT TIME...BUT A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT CREATED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO
THE SURFACE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS. THIS THREAT WILL END BY 03Z...AND CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM AT
ANY ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF RAIN ACTIVITY...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE.  HAVE TIMED OUT RAIN ACTIVITY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS USING TEMPOS FOR THE LAST BAND TO COME
THROUGH TONIGHT.  BEHIND THAT LINE...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. LOWER CIGS COULD ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE
IN FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL ADD IN MVFR CIGS FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS UPSTREAM. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS DIMINISH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  43  30  50  29 /  50  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  44  32  53  30 /  50  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  39  45  34  55  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  40  48  35  58  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      39  46  35  55  33 /  50  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      39  47  34  55  33 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  41  50  35  60  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
TROY        41  51  35  60  35 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14






000
FXUS64 KBMX 260322
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
922 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THINGS ARE QUIET THIS EVENING AFTER AN UNUSUAL SITUATION EARLIER
WITH STORMS THAT CONTAINED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY
IN THE 30S AT THAT TIME...BUT A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT CREATED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO
THE SURFACE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS. THIS THREAT WILL END BY 03Z...AND CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM AT
ANY ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF RAIN ACTIVITY...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE.  HAVE TIMED OUT RAIN ACTIVITY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS USING TEMPOS FOR THE LAST BAND TO COME
THROUGH TONIGHT.  BEHIND THAT LINE...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. LOWER CIGS COULD ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE
IN FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL ADD IN MVFR CIGS FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS UPSTREAM. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS DIMINISH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  43  30  50  29 /  50  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  44  32  53  30 /  50  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  39  45  34  55  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  40  48  35  58  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      39  46  35  55  33 /  50  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      39  47  34  55  33 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  41  50  35  60  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
TROY        41  51  35  60  35 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14






000
FXUS64 KHUN 260254
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
854 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS...REMOVED THUNDER AND TWEAKED SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE KEPT
REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS AS IS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND IS CENTERED OVER KY WITH CDFNT
MOVING ACROSS THE HUN AREA. EXPECT THE CDFNT TO PUSH OUT OF THE CWA
ARND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD PRODUCE
A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER AS USUAL OUR NERN ZONES/PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
TRAVEL PROBLEMS BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICKS SPOTS ON ROADS
MONDAY MRNG...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW (ARND MINUS 25 C) CENTERED OVER
WRN KY/TN MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW -TSRA FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF -TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN
TAFS. A CDFNT NOW OVER WRN TN SHOULD PASS THRU THE TAF SITES BY 06Z.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AFTER 06Z WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z AND ENDING AS -SN/FLURRIES BY
15Z. ATTM LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU 05Z. BETWEEN 05Z AND 20Z MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WHICH IS
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SATURDAY WAS SHOWING. STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS 20-25MPH AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
START TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. AS WELL...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDER IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS WARMING MORE THAN
FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE WARMING TREND IN THE LOWS TONIGHT IS
PROBABLY GOING TO HOLD. MOSGUIDE CONTINUED TO BE THE COLDEST AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. I STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE BECAUSE
THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER US BETWEEN 6-12Z. THIS
COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE SURFACE MORE THAN GUIDANCE CAN PICK UP
ON. ONLY A FEW ELEVATED AREAS WILL BE AT 32 DEG WHILE MOST SITES WILL
BE 33-35 DEG TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST 9Z MON AS PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE ISSUE IS WHAT
HAPPENS THEN. UPPER LEVELS START TO COOL QUICKLY WITH THE SURFACE
LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SURFACE FALLS BELOW
FREEZING...MOISTURE ABOVE -10C IS NON EXISTENT MEANING SNOW CRYSTALS
ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH TO CREATE. HOWEVER...I HAVE SEEN FLURRIES STILL
COME OUT OF SOUNDINGS WITH NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z GFS LEAVES
EVERYTHING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DRIES THE AREA
OUT QUICKLY AND LASTLY THE NAM LEAVES ENOUGH MOISTURE IN AND A
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. WITH
THE WARMING OF THE MODELS AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL THAT THE BEST
FORECAST IS ALL RAIN THROUGH 9Z THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AFTER 12-14Z. THIS COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER ON MONDAY LENDING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPS. AS WELL...NAM DOES NOT WARM THE UPPER LEVELS AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS DOES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE
TWO AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...MAYBE UPPER 30S.
THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MIDDLE GROUND TO BE RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA WITH COLDER TEMPS TO THE EAST AND WARMER TO
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST THIS TREND BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT. THE
SAME THING HAPPENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. TEND TO FEEL THAT THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL WIN OUT AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
REALIZED.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE PROVIDING THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS ON
THURS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THIS...CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260254
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
854 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS...REMOVED THUNDER AND TWEAKED SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE KEPT
REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS AS IS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND IS CENTERED OVER KY WITH CDFNT
MOVING ACROSS THE HUN AREA. EXPECT THE CDFNT TO PUSH OUT OF THE CWA
ARND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD PRODUCE
A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER AS USUAL OUR NERN ZONES/PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
TRAVEL PROBLEMS BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICKS SPOTS ON ROADS
MONDAY MRNG...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW (ARND MINUS 25 C) CENTERED OVER
WRN KY/TN MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW -TSRA FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF -TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN
TAFS. A CDFNT NOW OVER WRN TN SHOULD PASS THRU THE TAF SITES BY 06Z.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AFTER 06Z WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z AND ENDING AS -SN/FLURRIES BY
15Z. ATTM LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU 05Z. BETWEEN 05Z AND 20Z MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WHICH IS
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SATURDAY WAS SHOWING. STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS 20-25MPH AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
START TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. AS WELL...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDER IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS WARMING MORE THAN
FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE WARMING TREND IN THE LOWS TONIGHT IS
PROBABLY GOING TO HOLD. MOSGUIDE CONTINUED TO BE THE COLDEST AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. I STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE BECAUSE
THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER US BETWEEN 6-12Z. THIS
COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE SURFACE MORE THAN GUIDANCE CAN PICK UP
ON. ONLY A FEW ELEVATED AREAS WILL BE AT 32 DEG WHILE MOST SITES WILL
BE 33-35 DEG TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST 9Z MON AS PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE ISSUE IS WHAT
HAPPENS THEN. UPPER LEVELS START TO COOL QUICKLY WITH THE SURFACE
LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SURFACE FALLS BELOW
FREEZING...MOISTURE ABOVE -10C IS NON EXISTENT MEANING SNOW CRYSTALS
ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH TO CREATE. HOWEVER...I HAVE SEEN FLURRIES STILL
COME OUT OF SOUNDINGS WITH NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z GFS LEAVES
EVERYTHING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DRIES THE AREA
OUT QUICKLY AND LASTLY THE NAM LEAVES ENOUGH MOISTURE IN AND A
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. WITH
THE WARMING OF THE MODELS AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL THAT THE BEST
FORECAST IS ALL RAIN THROUGH 9Z THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AFTER 12-14Z. THIS COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER ON MONDAY LENDING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPS. AS WELL...NAM DOES NOT WARM THE UPPER LEVELS AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS DOES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE
TWO AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...MAYBE UPPER 30S.
THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MIDDLE GROUND TO BE RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA WITH COLDER TEMPS TO THE EAST AND WARMER TO
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST THIS TREND BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT. THE
SAME THING HAPPENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. TEND TO FEEL THAT THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL WIN OUT AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
REALIZED.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE PROVIDING THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS ON
THURS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THIS...CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260254
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
854 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS...REMOVED THUNDER AND TWEAKED SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE KEPT
REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS AS IS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND IS CENTERED OVER KY WITH CDFNT
MOVING ACROSS THE HUN AREA. EXPECT THE CDFNT TO PUSH OUT OF THE CWA
ARND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD PRODUCE
A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER AS USUAL OUR NERN ZONES/PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
TRAVEL PROBLEMS BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICKS SPOTS ON ROADS
MONDAY MRNG...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW (ARND MINUS 25 C) CENTERED OVER
WRN KY/TN MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW -TSRA FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF -TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN
TAFS. A CDFNT NOW OVER WRN TN SHOULD PASS THRU THE TAF SITES BY 06Z.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AFTER 06Z WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z AND ENDING AS -SN/FLURRIES BY
15Z. ATTM LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU 05Z. BETWEEN 05Z AND 20Z MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WHICH IS
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SATURDAY WAS SHOWING. STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS 20-25MPH AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
START TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. AS WELL...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDER IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS WARMING MORE THAN
FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE WARMING TREND IN THE LOWS TONIGHT IS
PROBABLY GOING TO HOLD. MOSGUIDE CONTINUED TO BE THE COLDEST AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. I STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE BECAUSE
THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER US BETWEEN 6-12Z. THIS
COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE SURFACE MORE THAN GUIDANCE CAN PICK UP
ON. ONLY A FEW ELEVATED AREAS WILL BE AT 32 DEG WHILE MOST SITES WILL
BE 33-35 DEG TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST 9Z MON AS PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE ISSUE IS WHAT
HAPPENS THEN. UPPER LEVELS START TO COOL QUICKLY WITH THE SURFACE
LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SURFACE FALLS BELOW
FREEZING...MOISTURE ABOVE -10C IS NON EXISTENT MEANING SNOW CRYSTALS
ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH TO CREATE. HOWEVER...I HAVE SEEN FLURRIES STILL
COME OUT OF SOUNDINGS WITH NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z GFS LEAVES
EVERYTHING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DRIES THE AREA
OUT QUICKLY AND LASTLY THE NAM LEAVES ENOUGH MOISTURE IN AND A
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. WITH
THE WARMING OF THE MODELS AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL THAT THE BEST
FORECAST IS ALL RAIN THROUGH 9Z THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AFTER 12-14Z. THIS COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER ON MONDAY LENDING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPS. AS WELL...NAM DOES NOT WARM THE UPPER LEVELS AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS DOES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE
TWO AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...MAYBE UPPER 30S.
THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MIDDLE GROUND TO BE RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA WITH COLDER TEMPS TO THE EAST AND WARMER TO
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST THIS TREND BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT. THE
SAME THING HAPPENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. TEND TO FEEL THAT THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL WIN OUT AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
REALIZED.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE PROVIDING THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS ON
THURS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THIS...CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260254
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
854 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS...REMOVED THUNDER AND TWEAKED SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE KEPT
REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS AS IS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND IS CENTERED OVER KY WITH CDFNT
MOVING ACROSS THE HUN AREA. EXPECT THE CDFNT TO PUSH OUT OF THE CWA
ARND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD PRODUCE
A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER AS USUAL OUR NERN ZONES/PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
TRAVEL PROBLEMS BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICKS SPOTS ON ROADS
MONDAY MRNG...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW (ARND MINUS 25 C) CENTERED OVER
WRN KY/TN MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW -TSRA FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF -TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN
TAFS. A CDFNT NOW OVER WRN TN SHOULD PASS THRU THE TAF SITES BY 06Z.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AFTER 06Z WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z AND ENDING AS -SN/FLURRIES BY
15Z. ATTM LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU 05Z. BETWEEN 05Z AND 20Z MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WHICH IS
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SATURDAY WAS SHOWING. STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS 20-25MPH AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
START TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. AS WELL...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDER IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS WARMING MORE THAN
FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE WARMING TREND IN THE LOWS TONIGHT IS
PROBABLY GOING TO HOLD. MOSGUIDE CONTINUED TO BE THE COLDEST AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. I STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE BECAUSE
THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER US BETWEEN 6-12Z. THIS
COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE SURFACE MORE THAN GUIDANCE CAN PICK UP
ON. ONLY A FEW ELEVATED AREAS WILL BE AT 32 DEG WHILE MOST SITES WILL
BE 33-35 DEG TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST 9Z MON AS PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE ISSUE IS WHAT
HAPPENS THEN. UPPER LEVELS START TO COOL QUICKLY WITH THE SURFACE
LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SURFACE FALLS BELOW
FREEZING...MOISTURE ABOVE -10C IS NON EXISTENT MEANING SNOW CRYSTALS
ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH TO CREATE. HOWEVER...I HAVE SEEN FLURRIES STILL
COME OUT OF SOUNDINGS WITH NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z GFS LEAVES
EVERYTHING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DRIES THE AREA
OUT QUICKLY AND LASTLY THE NAM LEAVES ENOUGH MOISTURE IN AND A
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. WITH
THE WARMING OF THE MODELS AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL THAT THE BEST
FORECAST IS ALL RAIN THROUGH 9Z THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AFTER 12-14Z. THIS COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER ON MONDAY LENDING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPS. AS WELL...NAM DOES NOT WARM THE UPPER LEVELS AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS DOES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE
TWO AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...MAYBE UPPER 30S.
THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MIDDLE GROUND TO BE RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA WITH COLDER TEMPS TO THE EAST AND WARMER TO
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST THIS TREND BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT. THE
SAME THING HAPPENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. TEND TO FEEL THAT THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL WIN OUT AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
REALIZED.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE PROVIDING THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS ON
THURS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THIS...CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 252351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
551 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WARMED UP NICELY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN
THE 60S.

EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE BUT THAT
POTENTIAL SEEMS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. STILL NOT SEEING ANY
REASON TO INCLUDE WINTRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA AS THE PROFILES ARE
TOO WARM NEARER TO THE SURFACE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RATHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TEASING US
TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z EURO SEEMS TO LIKE THE WAVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MORE THAN SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS. FEEL ITS
WORTH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL
PRETTY LOW. NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS. THIS THREAT WILL END BY 03Z...AND CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM AT
ANY ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF RAIN ACTIVITY...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE.  HAVE TIMED OUT RAIN ACTIVITY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS USING TEMPOS FOR THE LAST BAND TO COME
THROUGH TONIGHT.  BEHIND THAT LINE...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. LOWER CIGS COULD ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE
IN FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL ADD IN MVFR CIGS FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS UPSTREAM. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS DIMINISH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  43  30  50  29 /  40  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  44  32  53  30 /  40  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  39  45  34  55  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  40  48  35  58  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      39  46  35  55  33 /  30  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      39  47  34  55  33 /  10  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  41  50  35  60  34 /  10  10   0   0   0
TROY        41  51  35  60  35 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KBMX 252351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
551 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WARMED UP NICELY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN
THE 60S.

EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE BUT THAT
POTENTIAL SEEMS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. STILL NOT SEEING ANY
REASON TO INCLUDE WINTRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA AS THE PROFILES ARE
TOO WARM NEARER TO THE SURFACE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RATHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TEASING US
TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z EURO SEEMS TO LIKE THE WAVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MORE THAN SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS. FEEL ITS
WORTH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL
PRETTY LOW. NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS. THIS THREAT WILL END BY 03Z...AND CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM AT
ANY ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF RAIN ACTIVITY...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE.  HAVE TIMED OUT RAIN ACTIVITY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS USING TEMPOS FOR THE LAST BAND TO COME
THROUGH TONIGHT.  BEHIND THAT LINE...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. LOWER CIGS COULD ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE
IN FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL ADD IN MVFR CIGS FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS UPSTREAM. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS DIMINISH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  43  30  50  29 /  40  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  44  32  53  30 /  40  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  39  45  34  55  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  40  48  35  58  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      39  46  35  55  33 /  30  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      39  47  34  55  33 /  10  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  41  50  35  60  34 /  10  10   0   0   0
TROY        41  51  35  60  35 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KHUN 252340
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WHICH IS
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SATURDAY WAS SHOWING. STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS 20-25MPH AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
START TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. AS WELL...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDER IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS WARMING MORE THAN
FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE WARMING TREND IN THE LOWS TONIGHT IS
PROBABLY GOING TO HOLD. MOSGUIDE CONTINUED TO BE THE COLDEST AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. I STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE BECAUSE
THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER US BETWEEN 6-12Z. THIS
COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE SURFACE MORE THAN GUIDANCE CAN PICK UP
ON. ONLY A FEW ELEVATED AREAS WILL BE AT 32 DEG WHILE MOST SITES WILL
BE 33-35 DEG TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST 9Z MON AS PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE ISSUE IS WHAT
HAPPENS THEN. UPPER LEVELS START TO COOL QUICKLY WITH THE SURFACE
LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SURFACE FALLS BELOW
FREEZING...MOISTURE ABOVE -10C IS NON EXISTENT MEANING SNOW CRYSTALS
ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH TO CREATE. HOWEVER...I HAVE SEEN FLURRIES STILL
COME OUT OF SOUNDINGS WITH NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z GFS LEAVES
EVERYTHING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DRIES THE AREA
OUT QUICKLY AND LASTLY THE NAM LEAVES ENOUGH MOISTURE IN AND A
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. WITH
THE WARMING OF THE MODELS AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL THAT THE BEST
FORECAST IS ALL RAIN THROUGH 9Z THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AFTER 12-14Z. THIS COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER ON MONDAY LENDING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPS. AS WELL...NAM DOES NOT WARM THE UPPER LEVELS AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS DOES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE
TWO AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...MAYBE UPPER 30S.
THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MIDDLE GROUND TO BE RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA WITH COLDER TEMPS TO THE EAST AND WARMER TO
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST THIS TREND BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT. THE
SAME THING HAPPENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. TEND TO FEEL THAT THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL WIN OUT AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
REALIZED.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE PROVIDING THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS ON
THURS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THIS...CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW (ARND MINUS 25 C) CENTERED OVER
WRN KY/TN MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW -TSRA FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF -TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN
TAFS. A CDFNT NOW OVER WRN TN SHOULD PASS THRU THE TAF SITES BY 06Z.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AFTER 06Z WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z AND ENDING AS -SN/FLURRIES BY
15Z. ATTM LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU 05Z. BETWEEN 05Z AND 20Z MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 252340
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WHICH IS
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SATURDAY WAS SHOWING. STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS 20-25MPH AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
START TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. AS WELL...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDER IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS WARMING MORE THAN
FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE WARMING TREND IN THE LOWS TONIGHT IS
PROBABLY GOING TO HOLD. MOSGUIDE CONTINUED TO BE THE COLDEST AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. I STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE BECAUSE
THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER US BETWEEN 6-12Z. THIS
COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE SURFACE MORE THAN GUIDANCE CAN PICK UP
ON. ONLY A FEW ELEVATED AREAS WILL BE AT 32 DEG WHILE MOST SITES WILL
BE 33-35 DEG TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST 9Z MON AS PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE ISSUE IS WHAT
HAPPENS THEN. UPPER LEVELS START TO COOL QUICKLY WITH THE SURFACE
LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SURFACE FALLS BELOW
FREEZING...MOISTURE ABOVE -10C IS NON EXISTENT MEANING SNOW CRYSTALS
ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH TO CREATE. HOWEVER...I HAVE SEEN FLURRIES STILL
COME OUT OF SOUNDINGS WITH NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z GFS LEAVES
EVERYTHING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DRIES THE AREA
OUT QUICKLY AND LASTLY THE NAM LEAVES ENOUGH MOISTURE IN AND A
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. WITH
THE WARMING OF THE MODELS AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL THAT THE BEST
FORECAST IS ALL RAIN THROUGH 9Z THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AFTER 12-14Z. THIS COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER ON MONDAY LENDING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPS. AS WELL...NAM DOES NOT WARM THE UPPER LEVELS AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS DOES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE
TWO AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...MAYBE UPPER 30S.
THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MIDDLE GROUND TO BE RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA WITH COLDER TEMPS TO THE EAST AND WARMER TO
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST THIS TREND BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT. THE
SAME THING HAPPENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. TEND TO FEEL THAT THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL WIN OUT AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
REALIZED.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE PROVIDING THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS ON
THURS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THIS...CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW (ARND MINUS 25 C) CENTERED OVER
WRN KY/TN MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW -TSRA FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE CHC OF -TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN
TAFS. A CDFNT NOW OVER WRN TN SHOULD PASS THRU THE TAF SITES BY 06Z.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AFTER 06Z WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A RA/SN MIX BEGINNING ARND 09Z AND ENDING AS -SN/FLURRIES BY
15Z. ATTM LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU 05Z. BETWEEN 05Z AND 20Z MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 252134
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 252134
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 252134
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 252134
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 252100
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WHICH IS
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SATURDAY WAS SHOWING. STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS 20-25MPH AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
START TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. AS WELL...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDER IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS WARMING MORE THAN
FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE WARMING TREND IN THE LOWS TONIGHT IS
PROBABLY GOING TO HOLD. MOSGUIDE CONTINUED TO BE THE COLDEST AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. I STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE BECAUSE
THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER US BETWEEN 6-12Z. THIS
COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE SURFACE MORE THAN GUIDANCE CAN PICK UP
ON. ONLY A FEW ELEVATED AREAS WILL BE AT 32 DEG WHILE MOST SITES WILL
BE 33-35 DEG TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST 9Z MON AS PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE ISSUE IS WHAT
HAPPENS THEN. UPPER LEVELS START TO COOL QUICKLY WITH THE SURFACE
LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SURFACE FALLS BELOW
FREEZING...MOISTURE ABOVE -10C IS NON EXISTENT MEANING SNOW CRYSTALS
ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH TO CREATE. HOWEVER...I HAVE SEEN FLURRIES STILL
COME OUT OF SOUNDINGS WITH NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z GFS LEAVES
EVERYTHING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DRIES THE AREA
OUT QUICKLY AND LASTLY THE NAM LEAVES ENOUGH MOISTURE IN AND A
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. WITH
THE WARMING OF THE MODELS AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL THAT THE BEST
FORECAST IS ALL RAIN THROUGH 9Z THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AFTER 12-14Z. THIS COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER ON MONDAY LENDING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPS. AS WELL...NAM DOES NOT WARM THE UPPER LEVELS AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS DOES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE
TWO AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...MAYBE UPPER 30S.
THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MIDDLE GROUND TO BE RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA WITH COLDER TEMPS TO THE EAST AND WARMER TO
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST THIS TREND BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT. THE
SAME THING HAPPENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. TEND TO FEEL THAT THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL WIN OUT AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
REALIZED.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE PROVIDING THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS ON
THURS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THIS...CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1138 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY THE EARLY EVENING...AND IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ACCOMPANYING
GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. ERRATIC WINDS/SMALL HAIL/LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAF
GIVEN LOW CHANCES AT A TERMINAL. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW
DURING THE LATE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. AIR TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR
FREEZING SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END AFTER DAYBREAK MON...WITH VFR WEATHER EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    35  42  34  52 /  60  10   0  10
SHOALS        34  44  34  53 /  60  10   0   0
VINEMONT      35  42  34  51 /  50  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  32  41  32  48 /  60  10   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   35  42  32  50 /  50  10   0  10
FORT PAYNE    35  40  30  49 /  50  20   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 252100
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WHICH IS
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SATURDAY WAS SHOWING. STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS 20-25MPH AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
START TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. AS WELL...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDER IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS WARMING MORE THAN
FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE WARMING TREND IN THE LOWS TONIGHT IS
PROBABLY GOING TO HOLD. MOSGUIDE CONTINUED TO BE THE COLDEST AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. I STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE BECAUSE
THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER US BETWEEN 6-12Z. THIS
COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE SURFACE MORE THAN GUIDANCE CAN PICK UP
ON. ONLY A FEW ELEVATED AREAS WILL BE AT 32 DEG WHILE MOST SITES WILL
BE 33-35 DEG TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST 9Z MON AS PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE ISSUE IS WHAT
HAPPENS THEN. UPPER LEVELS START TO COOL QUICKLY WITH THE SURFACE
LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SURFACE FALLS BELOW
FREEZING...MOISTURE ABOVE -10C IS NON EXISTENT MEANING SNOW CRYSTALS
ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH TO CREATE. HOWEVER...I HAVE SEEN FLURRIES STILL
COME OUT OF SOUNDINGS WITH NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z GFS LEAVES
EVERYTHING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DRIES THE AREA
OUT QUICKLY AND LASTLY THE NAM LEAVES ENOUGH MOISTURE IN AND A
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. WITH
THE WARMING OF THE MODELS AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL THAT THE BEST
FORECAST IS ALL RAIN THROUGH 9Z THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AFTER 12-14Z. THIS COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER ON MONDAY LENDING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPS. AS WELL...NAM DOES NOT WARM THE UPPER LEVELS AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS DOES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE
TWO AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...MAYBE UPPER 30S.
THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MIDDLE GROUND TO BE RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA WITH COLDER TEMPS TO THE EAST AND WARMER TO
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST THIS TREND BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT. THE
SAME THING HAPPENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. TEND TO FEEL THAT THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL WIN OUT AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
REALIZED.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE PROVIDING THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS ON
THURS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THIS...CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1138 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY THE EARLY EVENING...AND IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ACCOMPANYING
GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. ERRATIC WINDS/SMALL HAIL/LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAF
GIVEN LOW CHANCES AT A TERMINAL. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW
DURING THE LATE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. AIR TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR
FREEZING SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END AFTER DAYBREAK MON...WITH VFR WEATHER EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    35  42  34  52 /  60  10   0  10
SHOALS        34  44  34  53 /  60  10   0   0
VINEMONT      35  42  34  51 /  50  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  32  41  32  48 /  60  10   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   35  42  32  50 /  50  10   0  10
FORT PAYNE    35  40  30  49 /  50  20   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 252100
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WHICH IS
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SATURDAY WAS SHOWING. STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS 20-25MPH AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
START TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. AS WELL...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDER IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS WARMING MORE THAN
FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE WARMING TREND IN THE LOWS TONIGHT IS
PROBABLY GOING TO HOLD. MOSGUIDE CONTINUED TO BE THE COLDEST AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. I STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE BECAUSE
THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER US BETWEEN 6-12Z. THIS
COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE SURFACE MORE THAN GUIDANCE CAN PICK UP
ON. ONLY A FEW ELEVATED AREAS WILL BE AT 32 DEG WHILE MOST SITES WILL
BE 33-35 DEG TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST 9Z MON AS PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE ISSUE IS WHAT
HAPPENS THEN. UPPER LEVELS START TO COOL QUICKLY WITH THE SURFACE
LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SURFACE FALLS BELOW
FREEZING...MOISTURE ABOVE -10C IS NON EXISTENT MEANING SNOW CRYSTALS
ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH TO CREATE. HOWEVER...I HAVE SEEN FLURRIES STILL
COME OUT OF SOUNDINGS WITH NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z GFS LEAVES
EVERYTHING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DRIES THE AREA
OUT QUICKLY AND LASTLY THE NAM LEAVES ENOUGH MOISTURE IN AND A
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. WITH
THE WARMING OF THE MODELS AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL THAT THE BEST
FORECAST IS ALL RAIN THROUGH 9Z THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AFTER 12-14Z. THIS COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER ON MONDAY LENDING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPS. AS WELL...NAM DOES NOT WARM THE UPPER LEVELS AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS DOES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE
TWO AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...MAYBE UPPER 30S.
THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MIDDLE GROUND TO BE RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA WITH COLDER TEMPS TO THE EAST AND WARMER TO
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST THIS TREND BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT. THE
SAME THING HAPPENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. TEND TO FEEL THAT THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL WIN OUT AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
REALIZED.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE PROVIDING THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS ON
THURS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THIS...CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1138 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY THE EARLY EVENING...AND IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ACCOMPANYING
GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. ERRATIC WINDS/SMALL HAIL/LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAF
GIVEN LOW CHANCES AT A TERMINAL. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW
DURING THE LATE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. AIR TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR
FREEZING SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END AFTER DAYBREAK MON...WITH VFR WEATHER EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    35  42  34  52 /  60  10   0  10
SHOALS        34  44  34  53 /  60  10   0   0
VINEMONT      35  42  34  51 /  50  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  32  41  32  48 /  60  10   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   35  42  32  50 /  50  10   0  10
FORT PAYNE    35  40  30  49 /  50  20   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 252100
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WHICH IS
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SATURDAY WAS SHOWING. STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS 20-25MPH AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
START TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. AS WELL...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDER IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS WARMING MORE THAN
FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE WARMING TREND IN THE LOWS TONIGHT IS
PROBABLY GOING TO HOLD. MOSGUIDE CONTINUED TO BE THE COLDEST AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. I STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE BECAUSE
THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER US BETWEEN 6-12Z. THIS
COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE SURFACE MORE THAN GUIDANCE CAN PICK UP
ON. ONLY A FEW ELEVATED AREAS WILL BE AT 32 DEG WHILE MOST SITES WILL
BE 33-35 DEG TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST 9Z MON AS PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE ISSUE IS WHAT
HAPPENS THEN. UPPER LEVELS START TO COOL QUICKLY WITH THE SURFACE
LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SURFACE FALLS BELOW
FREEZING...MOISTURE ABOVE -10C IS NON EXISTENT MEANING SNOW CRYSTALS
ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH TO CREATE. HOWEVER...I HAVE SEEN FLURRIES STILL
COME OUT OF SOUNDINGS WITH NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z GFS LEAVES
EVERYTHING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DRIES THE AREA
OUT QUICKLY AND LASTLY THE NAM LEAVES ENOUGH MOISTURE IN AND A
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. WITH
THE WARMING OF THE MODELS AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL THAT THE BEST
FORECAST IS ALL RAIN THROUGH 9Z THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AFTER 12-14Z. THIS COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS LONGER ON MONDAY LENDING TO
COOLER HIGH TEMPS. AS WELL...NAM DOES NOT WARM THE UPPER LEVELS AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS DOES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE
TWO AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...MAYBE UPPER 30S.
THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MIDDLE GROUND TO BE RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA WITH COLDER TEMPS TO THE EAST AND WARMER TO
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST THIS TREND BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT. THE
SAME THING HAPPENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. TEND TO FEEL THAT THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL WIN OUT AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
REALIZED.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE PROVIDING THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS ON
THURS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THIS...CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1138 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY THE EARLY EVENING...AND IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ACCOMPANYING
GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. ERRATIC WINDS/SMALL HAIL/LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAF
GIVEN LOW CHANCES AT A TERMINAL. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW
DURING THE LATE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. AIR TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR
FREEZING SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END AFTER DAYBREAK MON...WITH VFR WEATHER EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    35  42  34  52 /  60  10   0  10
SHOALS        34  44  34  53 /  60  10   0   0
VINEMONT      35  42  34  51 /  50  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  32  41  32  48 /  60  10   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   35  42  32  50 /  50  10   0  10
FORT PAYNE    35  40  30  49 /  50  20   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 252057
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WARMED UP NICELY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN
THE 60S.

EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE BUT THAT
POTENTIAL SEEMS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. STILL NOT SEEING ANY
REASON TO INCLUDE WINTRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA AS THE PROFILES ARE
TOO WARM NEARER TO THE SURFACE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RATHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TEASING US
TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z EURO SEEMS TO LIKE THE WAVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MORE THAN SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS. FEEL ITS
WORTH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL
PRETTY LOW. NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME SCT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME CU AT BEST. BETTER MOISTURE MOVES IN TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAFS. MOISTURE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH AT
MGM/TOI WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR MONDAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR LATE NIGHT POSSIBLY
SOME WITH THE -RA BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT EARLY ON...SO WILL INCLUDE
ONLY SCT LOW CLOUDS EARLY ON IN THE NIGHT.

08/MK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  43  30  50  29 /  40  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    39  44  32  53  30 /  40  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  39  45  34  55  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  40  48  35  58  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      39  46  35  55  33 /  30  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      39  47  34  55  33 /  10  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  41  50  35  60  34 /  10  10   0   0   0
TROY        41  51  35  60  35 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 251801 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY AS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARE STILL BACK IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. WITH SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH WINDS TODAY WE ARE WARMING UP NICELY. ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
ARE RISING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO...THEY HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GO AS WE ARE ON THE DRY SIDE AND THE SAME HOLDS TRUE
FOR INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION WILL FOR MOST HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT...BUT WITH AVAILABLE HEATING...WILL NOT REMOVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED IN GRIDS FOR THE FAR NORTH FOR LATE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER. HAVE TWEAKED UP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND EXPECTED
LATE START TIME FOR ANY CONVECTION. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME SCT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME CU AT BEST. BETTER MOISTURE MOVES IN TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAFS. MOISTURE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH AT
MGM/TOI WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR MONDAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR LATE NIGHT POSSIBLY
SOME WITH THE -RA BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT EARLY ON...SO WILL INCLUDE
ONLY SCT LOW CLOUDS EARLY ON IN THE NIGHT.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...A
CHANCE OF RAIN...AND ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH SOME WINTRY
WEATHER...TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE IT IS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND SOME SURFACE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES MAY
ACTUALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFTS THAT COULD LEAD TO A (NON-
SEVERE) THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND ARE FORECAST TO COOL OVERNIGHT...AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL START TO BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR TOWARD
MONDAY MORNING. AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...I DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT
SUPPORTED THE INCLUSION OF ANY WINTRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY TOO HIGH DURING THE TIME OF MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION...AND DON`T FALL TO LEVELS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW
UNTIL WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RATHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TEASING US
TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS ZIPPING ABOUT NEXT WEEK...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OR MAJOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  38  42  31  53 /  20  40  10   0   0
ANNISTON    59  39  44  31  54 /  10  40  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  60  39  44  34  55 /  10  30  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  40  47  35  59 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      59  39  45  34  56 /  10  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      58  40  47  34  56 /   0  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  62  41  49  34  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
TROY        61  41  50  35  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/61






000
FXUS64 KBMX 251801 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY AS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARE STILL BACK IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. WITH SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH WINDS TODAY WE ARE WARMING UP NICELY. ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
ARE RISING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO...THEY HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GO AS WE ARE ON THE DRY SIDE AND THE SAME HOLDS TRUE
FOR INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION WILL FOR MOST HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT...BUT WITH AVAILABLE HEATING...WILL NOT REMOVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED IN GRIDS FOR THE FAR NORTH FOR LATE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER. HAVE TWEAKED UP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND EXPECTED
LATE START TIME FOR ANY CONVECTION. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME SCT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME CU AT BEST. BETTER MOISTURE MOVES IN TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAFS. MOISTURE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH AT
MGM/TOI WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR MONDAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR LATE NIGHT POSSIBLY
SOME WITH THE -RA BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT EARLY ON...SO WILL INCLUDE
ONLY SCT LOW CLOUDS EARLY ON IN THE NIGHT.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...A
CHANCE OF RAIN...AND ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH SOME WINTRY
WEATHER...TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE IT IS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND SOME SURFACE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES MAY
ACTUALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFTS THAT COULD LEAD TO A (NON-
SEVERE) THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND ARE FORECAST TO COOL OVERNIGHT...AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL START TO BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR TOWARD
MONDAY MORNING. AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...I DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT
SUPPORTED THE INCLUSION OF ANY WINTRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY TOO HIGH DURING THE TIME OF MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION...AND DON`T FALL TO LEVELS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW
UNTIL WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RATHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TEASING US
TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS ZIPPING ABOUT NEXT WEEK...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OR MAJOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  38  42  31  53 /  20  40  10   0   0
ANNISTON    59  39  44  31  54 /  10  40  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  60  39  44  34  55 /  10  30  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  40  47  35  59 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      59  39  45  34  56 /  10  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      58  40  47  34  56 /   0  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  62  41  49  34  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
TROY        61  41  50  35  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/61





000
FXUS64 KMOB 251800 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE HIGHER WINDS/WIND
GUSTS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER THE AREA SHOWING 25-30 KT OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 251800 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE HIGHER WINDS/WIND
GUSTS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER THE AREA SHOWING 25-30 KT OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 251738 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1138 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
SO FAR...A STELLAR START FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED AFFAIR AS RAIN CHANCES RETURN
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WAS PROVIDING A LIGHT SW FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. ON A BROADER VIEW...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
CONTINUED ACROSS THE CONUS. A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION (AROUND ST LOUIS) WAS
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE IN AN ESE MOVEMENT...REACHING EASTERN
VA/MD BY MON MORNING. PRECEDING IT AND TO ITS SOUTH...A TROUGH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY MON. WITH THE TROUGH...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND LIFT WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE VALLEY. THUS RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE NAM/RAP/HRRR DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT LATE TODAY. SO
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE MIX. MAIN RISKS FROM
STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH...
THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A WARM GROUND
FROM DECENT HEATING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER ISSUES ARE UNLIKELY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY THE EARLY EVENING...AND IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ACCOMPANYING
GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. ERRATIC WINDS/SMALL HAIL/LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAF
GIVEN LOW CHANCES AT A TERMINAL. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW
DURING THE LATE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. AIR TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR
FREEZING SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END AFTER DAYBREAK MON...WITH VFR WEATHER EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 251738 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1138 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
SO FAR...A STELLAR START FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED AFFAIR AS RAIN CHANCES RETURN
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WAS PROVIDING A LIGHT SW FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. ON A BROADER VIEW...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
CONTINUED ACROSS THE CONUS. A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION (AROUND ST LOUIS) WAS
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE IN AN ESE MOVEMENT...REACHING EASTERN
VA/MD BY MON MORNING. PRECEDING IT AND TO ITS SOUTH...A TROUGH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY MON. WITH THE TROUGH...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND LIFT WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE VALLEY. THUS RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE NAM/RAP/HRRR DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT LATE TODAY. SO
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE MIX. MAIN RISKS FROM
STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH...
THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A WARM GROUND
FROM DECENT HEATING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER ISSUES ARE UNLIKELY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY THE EARLY EVENING...AND IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ACCOMPANYING
GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. ERRATIC WINDS/SMALL HAIL/LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAF
GIVEN LOW CHANCES AT A TERMINAL. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW
DURING THE LATE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. AIR TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR
FREEZING SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END AFTER DAYBREAK MON...WITH VFR WEATHER EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251640 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
PRIMARY UPDATES: ADDED ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP
CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR...A STELLAR START FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED AFFAIR AS RAIN CHANCES RETURN
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WAS PROVIDING A LIGHT SW FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. ON A BROADER VIEW...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
CONTINUED ACROSS THE CONUS. A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION (AROUND ST LOUIS) WAS
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE IN AN ESE MOVEMENT...REACHING EASTERN
VA/MD BY MON MORNING. PRECEDING IT AND TO ITS SOUTH...A TROUGH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY MON. WITH THE TROUGH...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND LIFT WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE VALLEY. THUS RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE NAM/RAP/HRRR DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT LATE TODAY. SO
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE MIX. MAIN RISKS FROM
STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH...
THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A WARM GROUND
FROM DECENT HEATING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER ISSUES ARE UNLIKELY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 539 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST AS OF 12Z WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AOA 8KFT BY
18Z. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. LIGHT RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD SPREAD INTO BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 1000 FEET
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT
THE LIGHT RAIN MAY TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT THE MIX OUT OF
THE TAFS.

STUMPF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 256 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
THE ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE-SYSTEM THAT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS STATES AT 06Z...SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AS THE DAY CONTINUES.
WILL ALSO FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE CONTINUED HIGHER END CHANCE POP FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CULLMAN COUNTY FOR
TODAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND 500
MILLIBAR LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPS WILL FALL AFTER 06Z INTO THE MID
30S...WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPS PROGRESSIVELY FALLING TO -2 TO -4
DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 09Z TIME FRAME EARLY ON MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z TIME PERIOD FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S.
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL TEMP
GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS FOR THURSDAYS HIGH TEMPS. BETWEEN 12Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z
THURSDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS
SHOULD KEEP WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING UNTIL THE TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON OR BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WORK
ITS WAY EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE NEXT
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE...COMPARED TO THE DRIER AND SLOWER
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN
ITS DEPICTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING PRECIP ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...COMPARED TO THE DRIER DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM BY THE GFS MODEL. WILL KEEP IN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ECWMF MODEL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 251640 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
PRIMARY UPDATES: ADDED ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP
CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR...A STELLAR START FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED AFFAIR AS RAIN CHANCES RETURN
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WAS PROVIDING A LIGHT SW FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. ON A BROADER VIEW...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
CONTINUED ACROSS THE CONUS. A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION (AROUND ST LOUIS) WAS
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE IN AN ESE MOVEMENT...REACHING EASTERN
VA/MD BY MON MORNING. PRECEDING IT AND TO ITS SOUTH...A TROUGH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY MON. WITH THE TROUGH...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND LIFT WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE VALLEY. THUS RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE NAM/RAP/HRRR DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT LATE TODAY. SO
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE MIX. MAIN RISKS FROM
STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH...
THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A WARM GROUND
FROM DECENT HEATING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER ISSUES ARE UNLIKELY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 539 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST AS OF 12Z WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AOA 8KFT BY
18Z. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. LIGHT RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD SPREAD INTO BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 1000 FEET
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT
THE LIGHT RAIN MAY TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT THE MIX OUT OF
THE TAFS.

STUMPF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 256 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
THE ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE-SYSTEM THAT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS STATES AT 06Z...SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AS THE DAY CONTINUES.
WILL ALSO FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE CONTINUED HIGHER END CHANCE POP FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CULLMAN COUNTY FOR
TODAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND 500
MILLIBAR LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPS WILL FALL AFTER 06Z INTO THE MID
30S...WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPS PROGRESSIVELY FALLING TO -2 TO -4
DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 09Z TIME FRAME EARLY ON MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z TIME PERIOD FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S.
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL TEMP
GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS FOR THURSDAYS HIGH TEMPS. BETWEEN 12Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z
THURSDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS
SHOULD KEEP WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING UNTIL THE TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON OR BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WORK
ITS WAY EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE NEXT
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE...COMPARED TO THE DRIER AND SLOWER
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN
ITS DEPICTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING PRECIP ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...COMPARED TO THE DRIER DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM BY THE GFS MODEL. WILL KEEP IN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ECWMF MODEL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 251640 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
PRIMARY UPDATES: ADDED ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP
CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR...A STELLAR START FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED AFFAIR AS RAIN CHANCES RETURN
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WAS PROVIDING A LIGHT SW FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. ON A BROADER VIEW...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
CONTINUED ACROSS THE CONUS. A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION (AROUND ST LOUIS) WAS
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE IN AN ESE MOVEMENT...REACHING EASTERN
VA/MD BY MON MORNING. PRECEDING IT AND TO ITS SOUTH...A TROUGH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY MON. WITH THE TROUGH...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND LIFT WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE VALLEY. THUS RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE NAM/RAP/HRRR DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT LATE TODAY. SO
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE MIX. MAIN RISKS FROM
STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH...
THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A WARM GROUND
FROM DECENT HEATING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER ISSUES ARE UNLIKELY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 539 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST AS OF 12Z WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AOA 8KFT BY
18Z. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. LIGHT RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD SPREAD INTO BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 1000 FEET
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT
THE LIGHT RAIN MAY TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT THE MIX OUT OF
THE TAFS.

STUMPF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 256 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
THE ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE-SYSTEM THAT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS STATES AT 06Z...SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AS THE DAY CONTINUES.
WILL ALSO FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE CONTINUED HIGHER END CHANCE POP FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CULLMAN COUNTY FOR
TODAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND 500
MILLIBAR LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPS WILL FALL AFTER 06Z INTO THE MID
30S...WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPS PROGRESSIVELY FALLING TO -2 TO -4
DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 09Z TIME FRAME EARLY ON MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z TIME PERIOD FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S.
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL TEMP
GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS FOR THURSDAYS HIGH TEMPS. BETWEEN 12Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z
THURSDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS
SHOULD KEEP WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING UNTIL THE TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON OR BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WORK
ITS WAY EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE NEXT
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE...COMPARED TO THE DRIER AND SLOWER
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN
ITS DEPICTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING PRECIP ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...COMPARED TO THE DRIER DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM BY THE GFS MODEL. WILL KEEP IN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ECWMF MODEL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 251640 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
PRIMARY UPDATES: ADDED ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP
CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR...A STELLAR START FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED AFFAIR AS RAIN CHANCES RETURN
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WAS PROVIDING A LIGHT SW FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. ON A BROADER VIEW...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
CONTINUED ACROSS THE CONUS. A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION (AROUND ST LOUIS) WAS
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE IN AN ESE MOVEMENT...REACHING EASTERN
VA/MD BY MON MORNING. PRECEDING IT AND TO ITS SOUTH...A TROUGH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY MON. WITH THE TROUGH...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND LIFT WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE VALLEY. THUS RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE NAM/RAP/HRRR DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT LATE TODAY. SO
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE MIX. MAIN RISKS FROM
STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH...
THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A WARM GROUND
FROM DECENT HEATING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER ISSUES ARE UNLIKELY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 539 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST AS OF 12Z WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AOA 8KFT BY
18Z. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. LIGHT RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD SPREAD INTO BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 1000 FEET
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT
THE LIGHT RAIN MAY TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT THE MIX OUT OF
THE TAFS.

STUMPF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 256 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
THE ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE-SYSTEM THAT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS STATES AT 06Z...SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AS THE DAY CONTINUES.
WILL ALSO FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE CONTINUED HIGHER END CHANCE POP FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CULLMAN COUNTY FOR
TODAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND 500
MILLIBAR LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPS WILL FALL AFTER 06Z INTO THE MID
30S...WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPS PROGRESSIVELY FALLING TO -2 TO -4
DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 09Z TIME FRAME EARLY ON MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z TIME PERIOD FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S.
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL TEMP
GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS FOR THURSDAYS HIGH TEMPS. BETWEEN 12Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z
THURSDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS
SHOULD KEEP WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING UNTIL THE TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON OR BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WORK
ITS WAY EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE NEXT
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE...COMPARED TO THE DRIER AND SLOWER
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN
ITS DEPICTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING PRECIP ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...COMPARED TO THE DRIER DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM BY THE GFS MODEL. WILL KEEP IN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ECWMF MODEL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 251633 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1033 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY AS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARE STILL BACK IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. WITH SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH WINDS TODAY WE ARE WARMING UP NICELY. ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
ARE RISING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO...THEY HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GO AS WE ARE ON THE DRY SIDE AND THE SAME HOLDS TRUE
FOR INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION WILL FOR MOST HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT...BUT WITH AVAILABLE HEATING...WILL NOT REMOVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED IN GRIDS FOR THE FAR NORTH FOR LATE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER. HAVE TWEAKED UP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND EXPECTED
LATE START TIME FOR ANY CONVECTION. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NEXT SYSTEM ON OUR DOORSTEP AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TODAY AND SLIDES INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT MID
LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOWER VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
EVENTUALLY MVFR CLOUDS AFTER 00Z. ADDED IN RAIN AT ALL NORTHERN
SITES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AFTER 1Z AT CL AND 2Z AT
BHM. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. AT
THIS POINT MODELS INDICATE ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP
IT THAT WAY WITH THIS SET.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...A
CHANCE OF RAIN...AND ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH SOME WINTRY
WEATHER...TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE IT IS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND SOME SURFACE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES MAY
ACTUALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFTS THAT COULD LEAD TO A (NON-
SEVERE) THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND ARE FORECAST TO COOL OVERNIGHT...AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL START TO BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR TOWARD
MONDAY MORNING. AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...I DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT
SUPPORTED THE INCLUSION OF ANY WINTRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY TOO HIGH DURING THE TIME OF MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION...AND DON`T FALL TO LEVELS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW
UNTIL WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RATHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TEASING US
TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS ZIPPING ABOUT NEXT WEEK...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OR MAJOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  38  42  31  53 /  20  40  10   0   0
ANNISTON    59  39  44  31  54 /  10  40  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  60  39  44  34  55 /  10  30  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  40  47  35  59 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      59  39  45  34  56 /  10  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      58  40  47  34  56 /   0  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  62  41  49  34  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
TROY        61  41  50  35  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16/61








000
FXUS64 KBMX 251633 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1033 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY AS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARE STILL BACK IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. WITH SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH WINDS TODAY WE ARE WARMING UP NICELY. ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
ARE RISING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO...THEY HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GO AS WE ARE ON THE DRY SIDE AND THE SAME HOLDS TRUE
FOR INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION WILL FOR MOST HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT...BUT WITH AVAILABLE HEATING...WILL NOT REMOVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED IN GRIDS FOR THE FAR NORTH FOR LATE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER. HAVE TWEAKED UP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND EXPECTED
LATE START TIME FOR ANY CONVECTION. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NEXT SYSTEM ON OUR DOORSTEP AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TODAY AND SLIDES INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT MID
LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOWER VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
EVENTUALLY MVFR CLOUDS AFTER 00Z. ADDED IN RAIN AT ALL NORTHERN
SITES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AFTER 1Z AT CL AND 2Z AT
BHM. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. AT
THIS POINT MODELS INDICATE ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP
IT THAT WAY WITH THIS SET.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...A
CHANCE OF RAIN...AND ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH SOME WINTRY
WEATHER...TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE IT IS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND SOME SURFACE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES MAY
ACTUALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFTS THAT COULD LEAD TO A (NON-
SEVERE) THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND ARE FORECAST TO COOL OVERNIGHT...AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL START TO BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR TOWARD
MONDAY MORNING. AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...I DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT
SUPPORTED THE INCLUSION OF ANY WINTRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY TOO HIGH DURING THE TIME OF MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION...AND DON`T FALL TO LEVELS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW
UNTIL WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RATHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TEASING US
TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS ZIPPING ABOUT NEXT WEEK...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OR MAJOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  38  42  31  53 /  20  40  10   0   0
ANNISTON    59  39  44  31  54 /  10  40  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  60  39  44  34  55 /  10  30  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  40  47  35  59 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      59  39  45  34  56 /  10  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      58  40  47  34  56 /   0  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  62  41  49  34  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
TROY        61  41  50  35  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16/61







000
FXUS64 KMOB 251552 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
952 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE HIGHER WINDS/WIND
GUSTS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER THE AREA SHOWING 25-30 KT OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 251552 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
952 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE HIGHER WINDS/WIND
GUSTS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER THE AREA SHOWING 25-30 KT OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 251552 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
952 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE HIGHER WINDS/WIND
GUSTS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER THE AREA SHOWING 25-30 KT OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 251552 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
952 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE HIGHER WINDS/WIND
GUSTS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER THE AREA SHOWING 25-30 KT OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 251343 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  40  57  39  64 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   63  44  58  40  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
DESTIN      62  46  58  43  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
EVERGREEN   63  39  55  35  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
WAYNESBORO  63  38  55  36  65 /  05  00  05  00  00
CAMDEN      63  39  53  34  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   66  40  57  36  65 /  05  05  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 251343 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  40  57  39  64 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   63  44  58  40  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
DESTIN      62  46  58  43  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
EVERGREEN   63  39  55  35  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
WAYNESBORO  63  38  55  36  65 /  05  00  05  00  00
CAMDEN      63  39  53  34  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   66  40  57  36  65 /  05  05  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 251343 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  40  57  39  64 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   63  44  58  40  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
DESTIN      62  46  58  43  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
EVERGREEN   63  39  55  35  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
WAYNESBORO  63  38  55  36  65 /  05  00  05  00  00
CAMDEN      63  39  53  34  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   66  40  57  36  65 /  05  05  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 251343 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  40  57  39  64 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   63  44  58  40  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
DESTIN      62  46  58  43  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
EVERGREEN   63  39  55  35  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
WAYNESBORO  63  38  55  36  65 /  05  00  05  00  00
CAMDEN      63  39  53  34  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   66  40  57  36  65 /  05  05  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 251143
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
543 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...A
CHANCE OF RAIN...AND ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH SOME WINTRY
WEATHER...TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE IT IS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND SOME SURFACE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES MAY
ACTUALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFTS THAT COULD LEAD TO A (NON-
SEVERE) THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND ARE FORECAST TO COOL OVERNIGHT...AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL START TO BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR TOWARD
MONDAY MORNING. AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...I DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT
SUPPORTED THE INCLUSION OF ANY WINTRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY TOO HIGH DURING THE TIME OF MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION...AND DON`T FALL TO LEVELS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW
UNTIL WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RATHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TEASING US
TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS ZIPPING ABOUT NEXT WEEK...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OR MAJOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NEXT SYSTEM ON OUR DOORSTEP AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TODAY AND SLIDES INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT MID
LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOWER VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
EVENTUALLY MVFR CLOUDS AFTER 00Z. ADDED IN RAIN AT ALL NORTHERN
SITES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AFTER 1Z AT CL AND 2Z AT
BHM. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. AT
THIS POINT MODELS INDICATE ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP
IT THAT WAY WITH THIS SET.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  38  42  31  53 /  10  40  10   0   0
ANNISTON    57  39  44  31  54 /  10  40  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  58  39  44  34  55 /  10  30  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  40  47  35  59 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      58  39  45  34  56 /  10  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      58  40  47  34  56 /   0  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  61  41  49  34  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
TROY        61  41  50  35  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 251143
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
543 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...A
CHANCE OF RAIN...AND ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH SOME WINTRY
WEATHER...TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE IT IS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND SOME SURFACE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES MAY
ACTUALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFTS THAT COULD LEAD TO A (NON-
SEVERE) THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND ARE FORECAST TO COOL OVERNIGHT...AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL START TO BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR TOWARD
MONDAY MORNING. AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...I DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT
SUPPORTED THE INCLUSION OF ANY WINTRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY TOO HIGH DURING THE TIME OF MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION...AND DON`T FALL TO LEVELS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW
UNTIL WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RATHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TEASING US
TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS ZIPPING ABOUT NEXT WEEK...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OR MAJOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NEXT SYSTEM ON OUR DOORSTEP AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TODAY AND SLIDES INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT MID
LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOWER VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
EVENTUALLY MVFR CLOUDS AFTER 00Z. ADDED IN RAIN AT ALL NORTHERN
SITES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AFTER 1Z AT CL AND 2Z AT
BHM. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. AT
THIS POINT MODELS INDICATE ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP
IT THAT WAY WITH THIS SET.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  38  42  31  53 /  10  40  10   0   0
ANNISTON    57  39  44  31  54 /  10  40  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  58  39  44  34  55 /  10  30  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  40  47  35  59 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      58  39  45  34  56 /  10  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      58  40  47  34  56 /   0  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  61  41  49  34  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
TROY        61  41  50  35  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 251139
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
539 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 256 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
THE ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE-SYSTEM THAT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS STATES AT 06Z...SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AS THE DAY CONTINUES.
WILL ALSO FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE CONTINUED HIGHER END CHANCE POP FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CULLMAN COUNTY FOR
TODAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND 500
MILLIBAR LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPS WILL FALL AFTER 06Z INTO THE MID
30S...WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPS PROGRESSIVELY FALLING TO -2 TO -4
DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 09Z TIME FRAME EARLY ON MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z TIME PERIOD FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S.
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL TEMP
GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS FOR THURSDAYS HIGH TEMPS. BETWEEN 12Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z
THURSDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS
SHOULD KEEP WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING UNTIL THE TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON OR BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WORK
ITS WAY EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE NEXT
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE...COMPARED TO THE DRIER AND SLOWER
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN
ITS DEPICTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING PRECIP ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...COMPARED TO THE DRIER DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM BY THE GFS MODEL. WILL KEEP IN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ECWMF MODEL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST AS OF 12Z WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AOA 8KFT BY
18Z. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. LIGHT RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD SPREAD INTO BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 1000 FEET
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT
THE LIGHT RAIN MAY TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT THE MIX OUT OF
THE TAFS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251139
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
539 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 256 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
THE ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE-SYSTEM THAT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS STATES AT 06Z...SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AS THE DAY CONTINUES.
WILL ALSO FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE CONTINUED HIGHER END CHANCE POP FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CULLMAN COUNTY FOR
TODAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND 500
MILLIBAR LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPS WILL FALL AFTER 06Z INTO THE MID
30S...WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPS PROGRESSIVELY FALLING TO -2 TO -4
DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 09Z TIME FRAME EARLY ON MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z TIME PERIOD FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S.
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL TEMP
GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS FOR THURSDAYS HIGH TEMPS. BETWEEN 12Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z
THURSDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS
SHOULD KEEP WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING UNTIL THE TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON OR BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WORK
ITS WAY EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE NEXT
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE...COMPARED TO THE DRIER AND SLOWER
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN
ITS DEPICTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING PRECIP ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...COMPARED TO THE DRIER DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM BY THE GFS MODEL. WILL KEEP IN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ECWMF MODEL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST AS OF 12Z WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AOA 8KFT BY
18Z. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. LIGHT RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD SPREAD INTO BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 1000 FEET
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT
THE LIGHT RAIN MAY TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT THE MIX OUT OF
THE TAFS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 251058
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  40  57  39  64 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   63  44  58  40  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
DESTIN      62  46  58  43  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
EVERGREEN   63  39  55  35  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
WAYNESBORO  63  38  55  36  65 /  05  00  05  00  00
CAMDEN      63  39  53  34  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   66  40  57  36  65 /  05  05  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 251058
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  40  57  39  64 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   63  44  58  40  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
DESTIN      62  46  58  43  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
EVERGREEN   63  39  55  35  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
WAYNESBORO  63  38  55  36  65 /  05  00  05  00  00
CAMDEN      63  39  53  34  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   66  40  57  36  65 /  05  05  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 250956
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...A
CHANCE OF RAIN...AND ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH SOME WINTRY
WEATHER...TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE IT IS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND SOME SURFACE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES MAY
ACTUALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFTS THAT COULD LEAD TO A (NON-
SEVERE) THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND ARE FORECAST TO COOL OVERNIGHT...AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL START TO BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR TOWARD
MONDAY MORNING. AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...I DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT
SUPPORTED THE INCLUSION OF ANY WINTRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY TOO HIGH DURING THE TIME OF MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION...AND DON`T FALL TO LEVELS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW
UNTIL WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RATHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TEASING US
TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS ZIPPING ABOUT NEXT WEEK...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OR MAJOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 11-12Z. FORECAST
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT ON WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY WEAK LOW
LEVEL UPLIFT...BUT DO NOT SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO MENTION
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A SCT DECK AT THIS TIME. ONLY OTHER AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 18KTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...AND BRING A VERY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH IT.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  38  42  31  53 /  10  40  10   0   0
ANNISTON    57  39  44  31  54 /  10  40  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  58  39  44  34  55 /  10  30  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  40  47  35  59 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      58  39  45  34  56 /  10  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      58  40  47  34  56 /   0  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  61  41  49  34  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
TROY        61  41  50  35  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 250956
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...A
CHANCE OF RAIN...AND ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH SOME WINTRY
WEATHER...TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE IT IS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND SOME SURFACE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES MAY
ACTUALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFTS THAT COULD LEAD TO A (NON-
SEVERE) THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND ARE FORECAST TO COOL OVERNIGHT...AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL START TO BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR TOWARD
MONDAY MORNING. AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...I DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT
SUPPORTED THE INCLUSION OF ANY WINTRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY TOO HIGH DURING THE TIME OF MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION...AND DON`T FALL TO LEVELS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW
UNTIL WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RATHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TEASING US
TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS ZIPPING ABOUT NEXT WEEK...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OR MAJOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 11-12Z. FORECAST
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT ON WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY WEAK LOW
LEVEL UPLIFT...BUT DO NOT SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO MENTION
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A SCT DECK AT THIS TIME. ONLY OTHER AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 18KTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...AND BRING A VERY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH IT.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  38  42  31  53 /  10  40  10   0   0
ANNISTON    57  39  44  31  54 /  10  40  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  58  39  44  34  55 /  10  30  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  40  47  35  59 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      58  39  45  34  56 /  10  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      58  40  47  34  56 /   0  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  61  41  49  34  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
TROY        61  41  50  35  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 250956
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...A
CHANCE OF RAIN...AND ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH SOME WINTRY
WEATHER...TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE IT IS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND SOME SURFACE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES MAY
ACTUALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFTS THAT COULD LEAD TO A (NON-
SEVERE) THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND ARE FORECAST TO COOL OVERNIGHT...AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL START TO BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR TOWARD
MONDAY MORNING. AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...I DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT
SUPPORTED THE INCLUSION OF ANY WINTRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY TOO HIGH DURING THE TIME OF MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION...AND DON`T FALL TO LEVELS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW
UNTIL WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RATHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TEASING US
TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS ZIPPING ABOUT NEXT WEEK...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OR MAJOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 11-12Z. FORECAST
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT ON WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY WEAK LOW
LEVEL UPLIFT...BUT DO NOT SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO MENTION
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A SCT DECK AT THIS TIME. ONLY OTHER AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 18KTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...AND BRING A VERY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH IT.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  38  42  31  53 /  10  40  10   0   0
ANNISTON    57  39  44  31  54 /  10  40  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  58  39  44  34  55 /  10  30  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  40  47  35  59 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      58  39  45  34  56 /  10  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      58  40  47  34  56 /   0  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  61  41  49  34  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
TROY        61  41  50  35  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 250956
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...A
CHANCE OF RAIN...AND ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH SOME WINTRY
WEATHER...TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE IT IS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND SOME SURFACE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES MAY
ACTUALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFTS THAT COULD LEAD TO A (NON-
SEVERE) THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND ARE FORECAST TO COOL OVERNIGHT...AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL START TO BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR TOWARD
MONDAY MORNING. AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...I DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT
SUPPORTED THE INCLUSION OF ANY WINTRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY TOO HIGH DURING THE TIME OF MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION...AND DON`T FALL TO LEVELS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW
UNTIL WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RATHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TEASING US
TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS ZIPPING ABOUT NEXT WEEK...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OR MAJOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 11-12Z. FORECAST
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT ON WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY WEAK LOW
LEVEL UPLIFT...BUT DO NOT SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO MENTION
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A SCT DECK AT THIS TIME. ONLY OTHER AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 18KTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...AND BRING A VERY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH IT.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  38  42  31  53 /  10  40  10   0   0
ANNISTON    57  39  44  31  54 /  10  40  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  58  39  44  34  55 /  10  30  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  40  47  35  59 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      58  39  45  34  56 /  10  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      58  40  47  34  56 /   0  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  61  41  49  34  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
TROY        61  41  50  35  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 250856
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
256 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE-SYSTEM THAT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS STATES AT 06Z...SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AS THE DAY CONTINUES.
WILL ALSO FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE CONTINUED HIGHER END CHANCE POP FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CULLMAN COUNTY FOR
TODAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND 500
MILLIBAR LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPS WILL FALL AFTER 06Z INTO THE MID
30S...WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPS PROGRESSIVELY FALLING TO -2 TO -4
DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 09Z TIME FRAME EARLY ON MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z TIME PERIOD FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S.
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL TEMP
GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS FOR THURSDAYS HIGH TEMPS. BETWEEN 12Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z
THURSDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS
SHOULD KEEP WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING UNTIL THE TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON OR BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WORK
ITS WAY EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE NEXT
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE...COMPARED TO THE DRIER AND SLOWER
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN
ITS DEPICTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING PRECIP ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...COMPARED TO THE DRIER DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM BY THE GFS MODEL. WILL KEEP IN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ECWMF MODEL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1036 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW/CDFNT APPROACHES THE CWA. THE CDFNT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS KMSL ARND 02Z AND KHSV BY 03Z WITH SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 02Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 02Z.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    54  35  43  31 /  40  30  10   0
SHOALS        53  33  43  32 /  40  30  10   0
VINEMONT      53  34  40  32 /  20  20  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  52  32  40  30 /  40  30  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   54  35  42  28 /  20  20  10   0
FORT PAYNE    53  35  42  29 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 250856
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
256 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE-SYSTEM THAT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS STATES AT 06Z...SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AS THE DAY CONTINUES.
WILL ALSO FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE CONTINUED HIGHER END CHANCE POP FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CULLMAN COUNTY FOR
TODAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND 500
MILLIBAR LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPS WILL FALL AFTER 06Z INTO THE MID
30S...WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPS PROGRESSIVELY FALLING TO -2 TO -4
DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 09Z TIME FRAME EARLY ON MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z TIME PERIOD FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S.
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL TEMP
GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS FOR THURSDAYS HIGH TEMPS. BETWEEN 12Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z
THURSDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS
SHOULD KEEP WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING UNTIL THE TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON OR BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WORK
ITS WAY EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE NEXT
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE...COMPARED TO THE DRIER AND SLOWER
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN
ITS DEPICTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING PRECIP ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...COMPARED TO THE DRIER DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM BY THE GFS MODEL. WILL KEEP IN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ECWMF MODEL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1036 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW/CDFNT APPROACHES THE CWA. THE CDFNT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS KMSL ARND 02Z AND KHSV BY 03Z WITH SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 02Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 02Z.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    54  35  43  31 /  40  30  10   0
SHOALS        53  33  43  32 /  40  30  10   0
VINEMONT      53  34  40  32 /  20  20  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  52  32  40  30 /  40  30  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   54  35  42  28 /  20  20  10   0
FORT PAYNE    53  35  42  29 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 250856
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
256 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE-SYSTEM THAT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS STATES AT 06Z...SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AS THE DAY CONTINUES.
WILL ALSO FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE CONTINUED HIGHER END CHANCE POP FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CULLMAN COUNTY FOR
TODAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND 500
MILLIBAR LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPS WILL FALL AFTER 06Z INTO THE MID
30S...WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPS PROGRESSIVELY FALLING TO -2 TO -4
DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 09Z TIME FRAME EARLY ON MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z TIME PERIOD FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S.
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL TEMP
GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS FOR THURSDAYS HIGH TEMPS. BETWEEN 12Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z
THURSDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS
SHOULD KEEP WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING UNTIL THE TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON OR BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WORK
ITS WAY EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE NEXT
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE...COMPARED TO THE DRIER AND SLOWER
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN
ITS DEPICTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING PRECIP ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...COMPARED TO THE DRIER DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM BY THE GFS MODEL. WILL KEEP IN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ECWMF MODEL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1036 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW/CDFNT APPROACHES THE CWA. THE CDFNT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS KMSL ARND 02Z AND KHSV BY 03Z WITH SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 02Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 02Z.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    54  35  43  31 /  40  30  10   0
SHOALS        53  33  43  32 /  40  30  10   0
VINEMONT      53  34  40  32 /  20  20  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  52  32  40  30 /  40  30  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   54  35  42  28 /  20  20  10   0
FORT PAYNE    53  35  42  29 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 250856
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
256 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE-SYSTEM THAT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS STATES AT 06Z...SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AS THE DAY CONTINUES.
WILL ALSO FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE CONTINUED HIGHER END CHANCE POP FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CULLMAN COUNTY FOR
TODAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND 500
MILLIBAR LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPS WILL FALL AFTER 06Z INTO THE MID
30S...WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPS PROGRESSIVELY FALLING TO -2 TO -4
DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 09Z TIME FRAME EARLY ON MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z TIME PERIOD FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S.
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL TEMP
GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS FOR THURSDAYS HIGH TEMPS. BETWEEN 12Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z
THURSDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS
SHOULD KEEP WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING UNTIL THE TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON OR BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WORK
ITS WAY EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE NEXT
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE...COMPARED TO THE DRIER AND SLOWER
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN
ITS DEPICTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING PRECIP ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...COMPARED TO THE DRIER DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM BY THE GFS MODEL. WILL KEEP IN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ECWMF MODEL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1036 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW/CDFNT APPROACHES THE CWA. THE CDFNT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS KMSL ARND 02Z AND KHSV BY 03Z WITH SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 02Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 02Z.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    54  35  43  31 /  40  30  10   0
SHOALS        53  33  43  32 /  40  30  10   0
VINEMONT      53  34  40  32 /  20  20  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  52  32  40  30 /  40  30  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   54  35  42  28 /  20  20  10   0
FORT PAYNE    53  35  42  29 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 250545
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO DROP FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. MANY SPOTS WILL SEE READINGS DROP TO NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 06Z-09Z
AND SLOWLY RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 11-12Z. FORECAST
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT ON WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY WEAK LOW
LEVEL UPLIFT...BUT DO NOT SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO MENTION
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A SCT DECK AT THIS TIME. ONLY OTHER AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 18KTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...AND BRING A VERY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH IT.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 307 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

GOOD TO SEE THE SUN SHINE TODAY EVEN THOUGH ITS ON THE COOL SIDE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS SO
QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF OUR CURRENT SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT. 12Z TRENDS SHOW DECENT LIFT AND A
LITTLE MORE QPF. THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY COLD
SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ACROSS
THE NORTH OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL IN THE NORTHEAST BUT DID EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

BEYOND THAT...THINGS LOOK DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES. STILL SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN SOMETIME BETWEEN 8 TO 12 DAYS OUT.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     29  56  36  43  30 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    31  58  38  45  31 /   0  10  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  32  58  38  45  33 /   0  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  32  60  38  48  34 /   0  20  10   0   0
CALERA      33  58  38  46  33 /   0  10  20  10   0
AUBURN      34  57  39  49  33 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  33  62  40  50  33 /   0   0  10   0   0
TROY        30  62  40  51  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 250443
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1043 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO DROP FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. MANY SPOTS WILL SEE READINGS DROP TO NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 06Z-09Z
AND SLOWLY RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WESTERLY
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT IS SPLIT ON WHETHER LOW
CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA. THERE IS VERY WEAK UPLIFT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DO NOT
SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN A SCT DECK AT
THIS TIME. ONLY OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 18KTS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 307 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

GOOD TO SEE THE SUN SHINE TODAY EVEN THOUGH ITS ON THE COOL SIDE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS SO
QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF OUR CURRENT SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT. 12Z TRENDS SHOW DECENT LIFT AND A
LITTLE MORE QPF. THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY COLD
SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ACROSS
THE NORTH OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL IN THE NORTHEAST BUT DID EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

BEYOND THAT...THINGS LOOK DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES. STILL SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN SOMETIME BETWEEN 8 TO 12 DAYS OUT.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     29  56  36  43  30 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    31  58  38  45  31 /   0  10  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  32  58  38  45  33 /   0  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  32  60  38  48  34 /   0  20  10   0   0
CALERA      33  58  38  46  33 /   0  10  20  10   0
AUBURN      34  57  39  49  33 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  33  62  40  50  33 /   0   0  10   0   0
TROY        30  62  40  51  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 250436
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1036 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 905 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
UNDER CLR SKIES TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 41 AT MSL TO 30 AT FT PAYNE.
THUS HAD TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN NE AL TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPS
ALREADY BELOW FCST VALUES. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE CDFNT/TROF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
HEAD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. NO RAIN EXPECTED ONLY AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IN PATCHY FOG WORDING BUT DONT
THINK THE FOG WILL BECOME DENSE OR WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE INCREASING
CLOUDS. NEW NAM DATA STILL SHOWS RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN/AL
BORDER BY 00Z SUNDAY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW/CDFNT APPROACHES THE CWA. THE CDFNT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS KMSL ARND 02Z AND KHSV BY 03Z WITH SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 02Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 02Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 250319
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
919 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.ZONE UPDATE...TEMPERATURE HAS DROPPED AWAY FAST TO BELOW THE
FORECAST MINIMUM AS OF 9 PM. IT IS LIKELY A LOW HANGING INVERSION HAS
ALREADY FORMED...AND WITH CALM CONDITIONS...MIXING HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN
WITH RADIATION HAVING TAKEN OVER. WE ARE THEREFORE LOWERING AREA
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. 77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
EAST COAST REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES HAVE
RETURNED TO THE CWFA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL LOW CLOUD COVER HAS
PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAS DISSIPATED OVER INLAND AREAS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES TONIGHT TO NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
LOW/TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASED LOWER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE. WE HAVE OPTED TO TREND TEMPERATURES
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER 60S AT BEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN
KY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR CWFA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH THE
15-25 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST...BUT
WE CURRENTLY EXPECT GUSTS TO RANGE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. /21

WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING...SHARPENS AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR. A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT...TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH) AHEAD OF THIS FRONT KEEPS
RAINFALL OUT OF THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER/MID 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
OFF THE EAST COAST TO START THE NEW WEEK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING
DOMINATED BY A DRY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND
30 MPH THERE. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING DOWN
INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY...MOVES EAST NEXT WEEK...EXTENDING TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY.

UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND NEXT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. MAY BE ENOUGH JET STREAK DYNAMICS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS...THOUGH...IS
FAIRLY LOW TO MENTION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GIVEN THAT THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN THE MID 50S/MID 60S NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR
TO LOWER/MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL ZONES...ON AVERAGE. NOT TOO BAD FOR
THE LAST WEEK IN JANUARY. /10

AVIATION...
24.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. /21

MARINE...OBSERVATIONS OFFSHORE INDICATE THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE
GRADUALLY DECREASING TO WITHIN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE AS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
IN SPEED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES EASTWARD AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. SEAS WILL ALSO LIKELY REBUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET AGAIN WELL
OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THEN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN GULF. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      33  62  40  57  38 /  00  05  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   39  62  43  58  40 /  00  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      41  62  46  56  44 /  00  00  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   31  62  38  55  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
WAYNESBORO  32  62  38  56  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
CAMDEN      31  62  38  53  35 /  00  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   33  64  39  56  37 /  00  05  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 250319
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
919 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.ZONE UPDATE...TEMPERATURE HAS DROPPED AWAY FAST TO BELOW THE
FORECAST MINIMUM AS OF 9 PM. IT IS LIKELY A LOW HANGING INVERSION HAS
ALREADY FORMED...AND WITH CALM CONDITIONS...MIXING HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN
WITH RADIATION HAVING TAKEN OVER. WE ARE THEREFORE LOWERING AREA
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. 77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
EAST COAST REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES HAVE
RETURNED TO THE CWFA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL LOW CLOUD COVER HAS
PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAS DISSIPATED OVER INLAND AREAS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES TONIGHT TO NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
LOW/TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASED LOWER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE. WE HAVE OPTED TO TREND TEMPERATURES
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER 60S AT BEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN
KY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR CWFA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH THE
15-25 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST...BUT
WE CURRENTLY EXPECT GUSTS TO RANGE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. /21

WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING...SHARPENS AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR. A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT...TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH) AHEAD OF THIS FRONT KEEPS
RAINFALL OUT OF THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER/MID 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
OFF THE EAST COAST TO START THE NEW WEEK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING
DOMINATED BY A DRY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND
30 MPH THERE. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING DOWN
INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY...MOVES EAST NEXT WEEK...EXTENDING TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY.

UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND NEXT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. MAY BE ENOUGH JET STREAK DYNAMICS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS...THOUGH...IS
FAIRLY LOW TO MENTION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GIVEN THAT THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN THE MID 50S/MID 60S NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR
TO LOWER/MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL ZONES...ON AVERAGE. NOT TOO BAD FOR
THE LAST WEEK IN JANUARY. /10

AVIATION...
24.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. /21

MARINE...OBSERVATIONS OFFSHORE INDICATE THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE
GRADUALLY DECREASING TO WITHIN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE AS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
IN SPEED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES EASTWARD AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. SEAS WILL ALSO LIKELY REBUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET AGAIN WELL
OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THEN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN GULF. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      33  62  40  57  38 /  00  05  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   39  62  43  58  40 /  00  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      41  62  46  56  44 /  00  00  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   31  62  38  55  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
WAYNESBORO  32  62  38  56  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
CAMDEN      31  62  38  53  35 /  00  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   33  64  39  56  37 /  00  05  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 250319
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
919 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.ZONE UPDATE...TEMPERATURE HAS DROPPED AWAY FAST TO BELOW THE
FORECAST MINIMUM AS OF 9 PM. IT IS LIKELY A LOW HANGING INVERSION HAS
ALREADY FORMED...AND WITH CALM CONDITIONS...MIXING HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN
WITH RADIATION HAVING TAKEN OVER. WE ARE THEREFORE LOWERING AREA
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. 77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
EAST COAST REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES HAVE
RETURNED TO THE CWFA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL LOW CLOUD COVER HAS
PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAS DISSIPATED OVER INLAND AREAS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES TONIGHT TO NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
LOW/TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASED LOWER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE. WE HAVE OPTED TO TREND TEMPERATURES
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER 60S AT BEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN
KY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR CWFA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH THE
15-25 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST...BUT
WE CURRENTLY EXPECT GUSTS TO RANGE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. /21

WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING...SHARPENS AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR. A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT...TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH) AHEAD OF THIS FRONT KEEPS
RAINFALL OUT OF THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER/MID 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
OFF THE EAST COAST TO START THE NEW WEEK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING
DOMINATED BY A DRY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND
30 MPH THERE. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING DOWN
INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY...MOVES EAST NEXT WEEK...EXTENDING TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY.

UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND NEXT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. MAY BE ENOUGH JET STREAK DYNAMICS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS...THOUGH...IS
FAIRLY LOW TO MENTION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GIVEN THAT THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN THE MID 50S/MID 60S NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR
TO LOWER/MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL ZONES...ON AVERAGE. NOT TOO BAD FOR
THE LAST WEEK IN JANUARY. /10

AVIATION...
24.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. /21

MARINE...OBSERVATIONS OFFSHORE INDICATE THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE
GRADUALLY DECREASING TO WITHIN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE AS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
IN SPEED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES EASTWARD AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. SEAS WILL ALSO LIKELY REBUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET AGAIN WELL
OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THEN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN GULF. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      33  62  40  57  38 /  00  05  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   39  62  43  58  40 /  00  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      41  62  46  56  44 /  00  00  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   31  62  38  55  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
WAYNESBORO  32  62  38  56  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
CAMDEN      31  62  38  53  35 /  00  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   33  64  39  56  37 /  00  05  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 250319
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
919 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.ZONE UPDATE...TEMPERATURE HAS DROPPED AWAY FAST TO BELOW THE
FORECAST MINIMUM AS OF 9 PM. IT IS LIKELY A LOW HANGING INVERSION HAS
ALREADY FORMED...AND WITH CALM CONDITIONS...MIXING HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN
WITH RADIATION HAVING TAKEN OVER. WE ARE THEREFORE LOWERING AREA
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. 77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
EAST COAST REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES HAVE
RETURNED TO THE CWFA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL LOW CLOUD COVER HAS
PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAS DISSIPATED OVER INLAND AREAS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES TONIGHT TO NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
LOW/TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASED LOWER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE. WE HAVE OPTED TO TREND TEMPERATURES
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER 60S AT BEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN
KY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR CWFA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH THE
15-25 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST...BUT
WE CURRENTLY EXPECT GUSTS TO RANGE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. /21

WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING...SHARPENS AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR. A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT...TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH) AHEAD OF THIS FRONT KEEPS
RAINFALL OUT OF THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER/MID 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
OFF THE EAST COAST TO START THE NEW WEEK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING
DOMINATED BY A DRY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND
30 MPH THERE. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING DOWN
INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY...MOVES EAST NEXT WEEK...EXTENDING TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY.

UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND NEXT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. MAY BE ENOUGH JET STREAK DYNAMICS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS...THOUGH...IS
FAIRLY LOW TO MENTION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GIVEN THAT THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN THE MID 50S/MID 60S NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR
TO LOWER/MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL ZONES...ON AVERAGE. NOT TOO BAD FOR
THE LAST WEEK IN JANUARY. /10

AVIATION...
24.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. /21

MARINE...OBSERVATIONS OFFSHORE INDICATE THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE
GRADUALLY DECREASING TO WITHIN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE AS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
IN SPEED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES EASTWARD AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. SEAS WILL ALSO LIKELY REBUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET AGAIN WELL
OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THEN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN GULF. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      33  62  40  57  38 /  00  05  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   39  62  43  58  40 /  00  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      41  62  46  56  44 /  00  00  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   31  62  38  55  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
WAYNESBORO  32  62  38  56  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
CAMDEN      31  62  38  53  35 /  00  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   33  64  39  56  37 /  00  05  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 250305
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
905 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER NE AL AND TWEAKED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLR SKIES TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 41 AT MSL TO 30 AT FT PAYNE.
THUS HAD TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN NE AL TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPS
ALREADY BELOW FCST VALUES. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE CDFNT/TROF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
HEAD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. NO RAIN EXPECTED ONLY AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IN PATCHY FOG WORDING BUT DONT
THINK THE FOG WILL BECOME DENSE OR WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE INCREASING
CLOUDS. NEW NAM DATA STILL SHOWS RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN/AL
BORDER BY 00Z SUNDAY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 611 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...THE NEXT WX MAKER IS NOW OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA THE CHC OF RAIN WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR
FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
THE SYSTEM THAT PROVIDED THE RAIN/SNOW FRI NIGHT IS MOVING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS WILL BE
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WITH THE COOLING TAKING
PLACE...PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IS POSSIBLE. IN
ELEVATED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL REACH 32 OR BELOW...FREEZING FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND WILL DIG INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SE FROM SE MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE CAROLINAS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RAISE INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS
WELL...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD START ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AFTER NOON ON
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT IS WHERE THE QUESTION IS.

THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO SCENARIOS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND THE MOST PROBABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...RANGING FROM BELOW
FREEZING TO WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE. ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS FREEZING OR BELOW
IS MOSGUIDE WITH EVERYTHING WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND ABOVE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS RIGHT OVER THE
AREA...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS BRINGS LOWS DOWN
TO 32-35 DEGREES. AS WELL...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...DYNAMIC
COOLING COULD LOWER TEMPS MORE THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS
SITUATION WILL LEND TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW
BY 10-12Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR 6-12Z MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUICKLY GONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO TAPER OFF AS FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE
DEPENDING ON THE TEMP AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

SCENARIO 2 IS IF THE TEMPERATURE NEVER COOLS ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLUMN AND THE SURFACE
TEMP WOULD COOL TO FREEZING MORE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GONE AT THAT
POINT...PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT
THE CURRENT FORECAST BUT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING.

THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THEN THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE...CLOUDS
WILL FILTER IN AN OUT THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 50S TUE-THU WITH LOWS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S BY
WED NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST THURSDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AND DROP HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250305
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
905 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER NE AL AND TWEAKED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLR SKIES TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 41 AT MSL TO 30 AT FT PAYNE.
THUS HAD TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN NE AL TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPS
ALREADY BELOW FCST VALUES. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE CDFNT/TROF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
HEAD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. NO RAIN EXPECTED ONLY AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IN PATCHY FOG WORDING BUT DONT
THINK THE FOG WILL BECOME DENSE OR WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE INCREASING
CLOUDS. NEW NAM DATA STILL SHOWS RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN/AL
BORDER BY 00Z SUNDAY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 611 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...THE NEXT WX MAKER IS NOW OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA THE CHC OF RAIN WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR
FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
THE SYSTEM THAT PROVIDED THE RAIN/SNOW FRI NIGHT IS MOVING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS WILL BE
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WITH THE COOLING TAKING
PLACE...PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IS POSSIBLE. IN
ELEVATED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL REACH 32 OR BELOW...FREEZING FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND WILL DIG INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SE FROM SE MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE CAROLINAS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RAISE INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS
WELL...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD START ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AFTER NOON ON
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT IS WHERE THE QUESTION IS.

THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO SCENARIOS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND THE MOST PROBABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...RANGING FROM BELOW
FREEZING TO WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE. ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS FREEZING OR BELOW
IS MOSGUIDE WITH EVERYTHING WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND ABOVE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS RIGHT OVER THE
AREA...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS BRINGS LOWS DOWN
TO 32-35 DEGREES. AS WELL...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...DYNAMIC
COOLING COULD LOWER TEMPS MORE THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS
SITUATION WILL LEND TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW
BY 10-12Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR 6-12Z MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUICKLY GONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO TAPER OFF AS FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE
DEPENDING ON THE TEMP AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

SCENARIO 2 IS IF THE TEMPERATURE NEVER COOLS ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLUMN AND THE SURFACE
TEMP WOULD COOL TO FREEZING MORE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GONE AT THAT
POINT...PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT
THE CURRENT FORECAST BUT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING.

THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THEN THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE...CLOUDS
WILL FILTER IN AN OUT THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 50S TUE-THU WITH LOWS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S BY
WED NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST THURSDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AND DROP HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 250011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
611 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
THE SYSTEM THAT PROVIDED THE RAIN/SNOW FRI NIGHT IS MOVING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS WILL BE
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WITH THE COOLING TAKING
PLACE...PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IS POSSIBLE. IN
ELEVATED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL REACH 32 OR BELOW...FREEZING FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND WILL DIG INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SE FROM SE MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE CAROLINAS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RAISE INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS
WELL...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD START ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AFTER NOON ON
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT IS WHERE THE QUESTION IS.

THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO SCENARIOS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND THE MOST PROBABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...RANGING FROM BELOW
FREEZING TO WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE. ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS FREEZING OR BELOW
IS MOSGUIDE WITH EVERYTHING WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND ABOVE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS RIGHT OVER THE
AREA...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS BRINGS LOWS DOWN
TO 32-35 DEGREES. AS WELL...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...DYNAMIC
COOLING COULD LOWER TEMPS MORE THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS
SITUATION WILL LEND TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW
BY 10-12Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR 6-12Z MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUICKLY GONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO TAPER OFF AS FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE
DEPENDING ON THE TEMP AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

SCENARIO 2 IS IF THE TEMPERATURE NEVER COOLS ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLUMN AND THE SURFACE
TEMP WOULD COOL TO FREEZING MORE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GONE AT THAT
POINT...PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT
THE CURRENT FORECAST BUT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING.

THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THEN THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE...CLOUDS
WILL FILTER IN AN OUT THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 50S TUE-THU WITH LOWS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S BY
WED NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST THURSDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AND DROP HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...THE NEXT WX MAKER IS NOW OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA THE CHC OF RAIN WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR
FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 250011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
611 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
THE SYSTEM THAT PROVIDED THE RAIN/SNOW FRI NIGHT IS MOVING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS WILL BE
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WITH THE COOLING TAKING
PLACE...PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IS POSSIBLE. IN
ELEVATED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL REACH 32 OR BELOW...FREEZING FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND WILL DIG INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SE FROM SE MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE CAROLINAS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RAISE INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS
WELL...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD START ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AFTER NOON ON
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT IS WHERE THE QUESTION IS.

THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO SCENARIOS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND THE MOST PROBABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...RANGING FROM BELOW
FREEZING TO WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE. ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS FREEZING OR BELOW
IS MOSGUIDE WITH EVERYTHING WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND ABOVE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS RIGHT OVER THE
AREA...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS BRINGS LOWS DOWN
TO 32-35 DEGREES. AS WELL...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...DYNAMIC
COOLING COULD LOWER TEMPS MORE THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS
SITUATION WILL LEND TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW
BY 10-12Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR 6-12Z MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUICKLY GONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO TAPER OFF AS FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE
DEPENDING ON THE TEMP AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

SCENARIO 2 IS IF THE TEMPERATURE NEVER COOLS ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLUMN AND THE SURFACE
TEMP WOULD COOL TO FREEZING MORE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GONE AT THAT
POINT...PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT
THE CURRENT FORECAST BUT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING.

THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THEN THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE...CLOUDS
WILL FILTER IN AN OUT THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 50S TUE-THU WITH LOWS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S BY
WED NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST THURSDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AND DROP HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...THE NEXT WX MAKER IS NOW OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA THE CHC OF RAIN WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR
FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 250011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
611 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
THE SYSTEM THAT PROVIDED THE RAIN/SNOW FRI NIGHT IS MOVING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS WILL BE
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WITH THE COOLING TAKING
PLACE...PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IS POSSIBLE. IN
ELEVATED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL REACH 32 OR BELOW...FREEZING FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND WILL DIG INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SE FROM SE MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE CAROLINAS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RAISE INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS
WELL...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD START ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AFTER NOON ON
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT IS WHERE THE QUESTION IS.

THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO SCENARIOS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND THE MOST PROBABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...RANGING FROM BELOW
FREEZING TO WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE. ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS FREEZING OR BELOW
IS MOSGUIDE WITH EVERYTHING WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND ABOVE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS RIGHT OVER THE
AREA...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS BRINGS LOWS DOWN
TO 32-35 DEGREES. AS WELL...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...DYNAMIC
COOLING COULD LOWER TEMPS MORE THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS
SITUATION WILL LEND TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW
BY 10-12Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR 6-12Z MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUICKLY GONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO TAPER OFF AS FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE
DEPENDING ON THE TEMP AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

SCENARIO 2 IS IF THE TEMPERATURE NEVER COOLS ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLUMN AND THE SURFACE
TEMP WOULD COOL TO FREEZING MORE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GONE AT THAT
POINT...PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT
THE CURRENT FORECAST BUT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING.

THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THEN THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE...CLOUDS
WILL FILTER IN AN OUT THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 50S TUE-THU WITH LOWS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S BY
WED NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST THURSDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AND DROP HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...THE NEXT WX MAKER IS NOW OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA THE CHC OF RAIN WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR
FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 250011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
611 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
THE SYSTEM THAT PROVIDED THE RAIN/SNOW FRI NIGHT IS MOVING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS WILL BE
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WITH THE COOLING TAKING
PLACE...PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IS POSSIBLE. IN
ELEVATED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL REACH 32 OR BELOW...FREEZING FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND WILL DIG INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SE FROM SE MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE CAROLINAS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RAISE INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS
WELL...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD START ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AFTER NOON ON
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT IS WHERE THE QUESTION IS.

THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO SCENARIOS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND THE MOST PROBABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...RANGING FROM BELOW
FREEZING TO WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE. ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS FREEZING OR BELOW
IS MOSGUIDE WITH EVERYTHING WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND ABOVE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS RIGHT OVER THE
AREA...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS BRINGS LOWS DOWN
TO 32-35 DEGREES. AS WELL...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...DYNAMIC
COOLING COULD LOWER TEMPS MORE THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS
SITUATION WILL LEND TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW
BY 10-12Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR 6-12Z MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUICKLY GONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO TAPER OFF AS FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE
DEPENDING ON THE TEMP AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

SCENARIO 2 IS IF THE TEMPERATURE NEVER COOLS ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLUMN AND THE SURFACE
TEMP WOULD COOL TO FREEZING MORE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GONE AT THAT
POINT...PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT
THE CURRENT FORECAST BUT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING.

THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THEN THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE...CLOUDS
WILL FILTER IN AN OUT THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 50S TUE-THU WITH LOWS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S BY
WED NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST THURSDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AND DROP HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...THE NEXT WX MAKER IS NOW OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA THE CHC OF RAIN WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR
FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 242326
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
526 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GOOD TO SEE THE SUN SHINE TODAY EVEN THOUGH ITS ON THE COOL SIDE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS SO
QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF OUR CURRENT SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT. 12Z TRENDS SHOW DECENT LIFT AND A
LITTLE MORE QPF. THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY COLD
SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ACROSS
THE NORTH OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL IN THE NORTHEAST BUT DID EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

BEYOND THAT...THINGS LOOK DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES. STILL SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN SOMETIME BETWEEN 8 TO 12 DAYS OUT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WESTERLY
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT IS SPLIT ON WHETHER LOW
CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA. THERE IS VERY WEAK UPLIFT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DO NOT
SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN A SCT DECK AT
THIS TIME. ONLY OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 18KTS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  56  36  43  30 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    32  58  38  45  31 /   0  10  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  34  58  38  45  33 /   0  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  34  60  38  48  34 /   0  20  10   0   0
CALERA      34  58  38  46  33 /   0  10  20  10   0
AUBURN      35  57  39  49  33 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  33  62  40  50  33 /   0   0  10   0   0
TROY        34  62  40  51  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KBMX 242326
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
526 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GOOD TO SEE THE SUN SHINE TODAY EVEN THOUGH ITS ON THE COOL SIDE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS SO
QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF OUR CURRENT SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT. 12Z TRENDS SHOW DECENT LIFT AND A
LITTLE MORE QPF. THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY COLD
SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ACROSS
THE NORTH OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL IN THE NORTHEAST BUT DID EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

BEYOND THAT...THINGS LOOK DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES. STILL SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN SOMETIME BETWEEN 8 TO 12 DAYS OUT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WESTERLY
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT IS SPLIT ON WHETHER LOW
CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA. THERE IS VERY WEAK UPLIFT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DO NOT
SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN A SCT DECK AT
THIS TIME. ONLY OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 18KTS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  56  36  43  30 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    32  58  38  45  31 /   0  10  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  34  58  38  45  33 /   0  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  34  60  38  48  34 /   0  20  10   0   0
CALERA      34  58  38  46  33 /   0  10  20  10   0
AUBURN      35  57  39  49  33 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  33  62  40  50  33 /   0   0  10   0   0
TROY        34  62  40  51  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KBMX 242107
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

GOOD TO SEE THE SUN SHINE TODAY EVEN THOUGH ITS ON THE COOL SIDE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS SO
QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF OUR CURRENT SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT. 12Z TRENDS SHOW DECENT LIFT AND A
LITTLE MORE QPF. THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY COLD
SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ACROSS
THE NORTH OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL IN THE NORTHEAST BUT DID EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

BEYOND THAT...THINGS LOOK DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES. STILL SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN SOMETIME BETWEEN 8 TO 12 DAYS OUT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CLOUDS THAT LINGERED THIS MORNING HAVE SCATTERED OUT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...BUT GUSTS TO 15
TO 20 KTS AT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 9Z
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NAM  DOES NOT HAVE ANY LOW CLOUDS. HAVE SOME
DOUBTS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT WILL
KEEP THE SCT015 IN FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE AND RE-EVALUATE FOR
THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

32/DAVIS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  56  36  43  30 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    32  58  38  45  31 /   0  10  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  34  58  38  45  33 /   0  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  34  60  38  48  34 /   0  20  10   0   0
CALERA      34  58  38  46  33 /   0  10  20  10   0
AUBURN      35  57  39  49  33 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  33  62  40  50  33 /   0   0  10   0   0
TROY        34  62  40  51  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 242107
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

GOOD TO SEE THE SUN SHINE TODAY EVEN THOUGH ITS ON THE COOL SIDE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS SO
QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF OUR CURRENT SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT. 12Z TRENDS SHOW DECENT LIFT AND A
LITTLE MORE QPF. THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY COLD
SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ACROSS
THE NORTH OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL IN THE NORTHEAST BUT DID EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

BEYOND THAT...THINGS LOOK DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES. STILL SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN SOMETIME BETWEEN 8 TO 12 DAYS OUT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CLOUDS THAT LINGERED THIS MORNING HAVE SCATTERED OUT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...BUT GUSTS TO 15
TO 20 KTS AT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 9Z
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NAM  DOES NOT HAVE ANY LOW CLOUDS. HAVE SOME
DOUBTS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT WILL
KEEP THE SCT015 IN FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE AND RE-EVALUATE FOR
THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

32/DAVIS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  56  36  43  30 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    32  58  38  45  31 /   0  10  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  34  58  38  45  33 /   0  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  34  60  38  48  34 /   0  20  10   0   0
CALERA      34  58  38  46  33 /   0  10  20  10   0
AUBURN      35  57  39  49  33 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  33  62  40  50  33 /   0   0  10   0   0
TROY        34  62  40  51  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 242107
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

GOOD TO SEE THE SUN SHINE TODAY EVEN THOUGH ITS ON THE COOL SIDE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS SO
QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF OUR CURRENT SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT. 12Z TRENDS SHOW DECENT LIFT AND A
LITTLE MORE QPF. THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY COLD
SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ACROSS
THE NORTH OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL IN THE NORTHEAST BUT DID EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

BEYOND THAT...THINGS LOOK DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES. STILL SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN SOMETIME BETWEEN 8 TO 12 DAYS OUT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CLOUDS THAT LINGERED THIS MORNING HAVE SCATTERED OUT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...BUT GUSTS TO 15
TO 20 KTS AT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 9Z
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NAM  DOES NOT HAVE ANY LOW CLOUDS. HAVE SOME
DOUBTS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT WILL
KEEP THE SCT015 IN FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE AND RE-EVALUATE FOR
THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

32/DAVIS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  56  36  43  30 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    32  58  38  45  31 /   0  10  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  34  58  38  45  33 /   0  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  34  60  38  48  34 /   0  20  10   0   0
CALERA      34  58  38  46  33 /   0  10  20  10   0
AUBURN      35  57  39  49  33 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  33  62  40  50  33 /   0   0  10   0   0
TROY        34  62  40  51  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 242107
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

GOOD TO SEE THE SUN SHINE TODAY EVEN THOUGH ITS ON THE COOL SIDE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS SO
QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF OUR CURRENT SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT. 12Z TRENDS SHOW DECENT LIFT AND A
LITTLE MORE QPF. THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY COLD
SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ACROSS
THE NORTH OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL IN THE NORTHEAST BUT DID EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

BEYOND THAT...THINGS LOOK DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES. STILL SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN SOMETIME BETWEEN 8 TO 12 DAYS OUT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CLOUDS THAT LINGERED THIS MORNING HAVE SCATTERED OUT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...BUT GUSTS TO 15
TO 20 KTS AT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 9Z
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NAM  DOES NOT HAVE ANY LOW CLOUDS. HAVE SOME
DOUBTS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT WILL
KEEP THE SCT015 IN FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE AND RE-EVALUATE FOR
THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

32/DAVIS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  56  36  43  30 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    32  58  38  45  31 /   0  10  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  34  58  38  45  33 /   0  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  34  60  38  48  34 /   0  20  10   0   0
CALERA      34  58  38  46  33 /   0  10  20  10   0
AUBURN      35  57  39  49  33 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  33  62  40  50  33 /   0   0  10   0   0
TROY        34  62  40  51  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 242105
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
305 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SYSTEM THAT PROVIDED THE RAIN/SNOW FRI NIGHT IS MOVING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS WILL BE
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WITH THE COOLING TAKING
PLACE...PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IS POSSIBLE. IN
ELEVATED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL REACH 32 OR BELOW...FREEZING FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND WILL DIG INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SE FROM SE MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE CAROLINAS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RAISE INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS
WELL...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD START ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AFTER NOON ON
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT IS WHERE THE QUESTION IS.

THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO SCENARIOS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND THE MOST PROBABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...RANGING FROM BELOW
FREEZING TO WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE. ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS FREEZING OR BELOW
IS MOSGUIDE WITH EVERYTHING WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND ABOVE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS RIGHT OVER THE
AREA...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS BRINGS LOWS DOWN
TO 32-35 DEGREES. AS WELL...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...DYNAMIC
COOLING COULD LOWER TEMPS MORE THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS
SITUATION WILL LEND TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW
BY 10-12Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR 6-12Z MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUICKLY GONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO TAPER OFF AS FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE
DEPENDING ON THE TEMP AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

SCENARIO 2 IS IF THE TEMPERATURE NEVER COOLS ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLUMN AND THE SURFACE
TEMP WOULD COOL TO FREEZING MORE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GONE AT THAT
POINT...PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT
THE CURRENT FORECAST BUT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING.

THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THEN THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE...CLOUDS
WILL FILTER IN AN OUT THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 50S TUE-THU WITH LOWS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S BY
WED NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST THURSDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AND DROP HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 05-09Z...THEN DECREASING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
HAVE MVFR/IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS FCST FOR THE MORE FOG-PRONE KMSL
LOCATION...WITH MVFR AT KHSV. AS DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS AFTER SUNRISE
THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BUT GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    33  53  35  43 /   0  40  30  10
SHOALS        34  53  33  43 /   0  40  30  10
VINEMONT      34  53  34  40 /   0  20  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  32  52  32  40 /   0  40  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   32  54  35  42 /   0  20  20  10
FORT PAYNE    31  53  35  42 /   0  30  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 242105
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
305 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SYSTEM THAT PROVIDED THE RAIN/SNOW FRI NIGHT IS MOVING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS WILL BE
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WITH THE COOLING TAKING
PLACE...PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IS POSSIBLE. IN
ELEVATED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL REACH 32 OR BELOW...FREEZING FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND WILL DIG INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SE FROM SE MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE CAROLINAS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RAISE INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS
WELL...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD START ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AFTER NOON ON
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT IS WHERE THE QUESTION IS.

THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO SCENARIOS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND THE MOST PROBABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...RANGING FROM BELOW
FREEZING TO WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE. ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS FREEZING OR BELOW
IS MOSGUIDE WITH EVERYTHING WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND ABOVE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS RIGHT OVER THE
AREA...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS BRINGS LOWS DOWN
TO 32-35 DEGREES. AS WELL...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...DYNAMIC
COOLING COULD LOWER TEMPS MORE THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS
SITUATION WILL LEND TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW
BY 10-12Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR 6-12Z MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUICKLY GONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO TAPER OFF AS FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE
DEPENDING ON THE TEMP AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

SCENARIO 2 IS IF THE TEMPERATURE NEVER COOLS ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLUMN AND THE SURFACE
TEMP WOULD COOL TO FREEZING MORE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GONE AT THAT
POINT...PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT
THE CURRENT FORECAST BUT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING.

THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THEN THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE...CLOUDS
WILL FILTER IN AN OUT THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 50S TUE-THU WITH LOWS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S BY
WED NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST THURSDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AND DROP HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 05-09Z...THEN DECREASING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
HAVE MVFR/IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS FCST FOR THE MORE FOG-PRONE KMSL
LOCATION...WITH MVFR AT KHSV. AS DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS AFTER SUNRISE
THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BUT GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    33  53  35  43 /   0  40  30  10
SHOALS        34  53  33  43 /   0  40  30  10
VINEMONT      34  53  34  40 /   0  20  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  32  52  32  40 /   0  40  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   32  54  35  42 /   0  20  20  10
FORT PAYNE    31  53  35  42 /   0  30  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 242049
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
249 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
EAST COAST REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES HAVE
RETURNED TO THE CWFA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL LOW CLOUD COVER HAS
PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAS DISSIPATED OVER INLAND AREAS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES TONIGHT TO NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
LOW/TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASED LOWER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE. WE HAVE OPTED TO TREND TEMPERATURES
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER 60S AT BEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN
KY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR CWFA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH THE
15-25 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST...BUT
WE CURRENTLY EXPECT GUSTS TO RANGE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. /21

WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING...SHARPENS AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR. A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT...TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH) AHEAD OF THIS FRONT KEEPS
RAINFALL OUT OF THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER/MID 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
OFF THE EAST COAST TO START THE NEW WEEK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING
DOMINATED BY A DRY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND
30 MPH THERE. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING DOWN
INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY...MOVES EAST NEXT WEEK...EXTENDING TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY.

UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND NEXT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. MAY BE ENOUGH JET STREAK DYNAMICS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS...THOUGH...IS
FAIRLY LOW TO MENTION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GIVEN THAT THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN THE MID 50S/MID 60S NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR
TO LOWER/MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL ZONES...ON AVERAGE. NOT TOO BAD FOR
THE LAST WEEK IN JANUARY. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
24.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. /21

&&

.MARINE...OBSERVATIONS OFFSHORE INDICATE THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE
GRADUALLY DECREASING TO WITHIN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE AS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
IN SPEED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES EASTWARD AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. SEAS WILL ALSO LIKELY REBUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET AGAIN WELL
OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THEN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN GULF. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      37  62  40  57  38 /  00  05  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   41  62  43  58  40 /  00  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      44  62  46  56  44 /  00  00  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   34  62  38  55  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
WAYNESBORO  34  62  38  56  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
CAMDEN      33  62  38  53  35 /  00  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   34  64  39  56  37 /  00  05  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 242049
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
249 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
EAST COAST REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES HAVE
RETURNED TO THE CWFA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL LOW CLOUD COVER HAS
PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAS DISSIPATED OVER INLAND AREAS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES TONIGHT TO NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
LOW/TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASED LOWER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE. WE HAVE OPTED TO TREND TEMPERATURES
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER 60S AT BEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN
KY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR CWFA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH THE
15-25 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST...BUT
WE CURRENTLY EXPECT GUSTS TO RANGE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. /21

WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING...SHARPENS AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR. A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT...TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH) AHEAD OF THIS FRONT KEEPS
RAINFALL OUT OF THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER/MID 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
OFF THE EAST COAST TO START THE NEW WEEK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING
DOMINATED BY A DRY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND
30 MPH THERE. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING DOWN
INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY...MOVES EAST NEXT WEEK...EXTENDING TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY.

UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND NEXT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. MAY BE ENOUGH JET STREAK DYNAMICS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS...THOUGH...IS
FAIRLY LOW TO MENTION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GIVEN THAT THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN THE MID 50S/MID 60S NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR
TO LOWER/MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL ZONES...ON AVERAGE. NOT TOO BAD FOR
THE LAST WEEK IN JANUARY. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
24.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. /21

&&

.MARINE...OBSERVATIONS OFFSHORE INDICATE THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE
GRADUALLY DECREASING TO WITHIN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE AS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
IN SPEED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES EASTWARD AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. SEAS WILL ALSO LIKELY REBUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET AGAIN WELL
OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THEN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN GULF. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      37  62  40  57  38 /  00  05  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   41  62  43  58  40 /  00  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      44  62  46  56  44 /  00  00  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   34  62  38  55  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
WAYNESBORO  34  62  38  56  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
CAMDEN      33  62  38  53  35 /  00  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   34  64  39  56  37 /  00  05  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 242049
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
249 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
EAST COAST REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES HAVE
RETURNED TO THE CWFA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL LOW CLOUD COVER HAS
PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAS DISSIPATED OVER INLAND AREAS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES TONIGHT TO NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
LOW/TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASED LOWER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE. WE HAVE OPTED TO TREND TEMPERATURES
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER 60S AT BEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN
KY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR CWFA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH THE
15-25 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST...BUT
WE CURRENTLY EXPECT GUSTS TO RANGE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. /21

WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING...SHARPENS AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR. A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT...TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH) AHEAD OF THIS FRONT KEEPS
RAINFALL OUT OF THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER/MID 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
OFF THE EAST COAST TO START THE NEW WEEK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING
DOMINATED BY A DRY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND
30 MPH THERE. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING DOWN
INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY...MOVES EAST NEXT WEEK...EXTENDING TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY.

UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND NEXT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. MAY BE ENOUGH JET STREAK DYNAMICS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS...THOUGH...IS
FAIRLY LOW TO MENTION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GIVEN THAT THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN THE MID 50S/MID 60S NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR
TO LOWER/MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL ZONES...ON AVERAGE. NOT TOO BAD FOR
THE LAST WEEK IN JANUARY. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
24.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. /21

&&

.MARINE...OBSERVATIONS OFFSHORE INDICATE THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE
GRADUALLY DECREASING TO WITHIN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE AS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
IN SPEED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES EASTWARD AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. SEAS WILL ALSO LIKELY REBUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET AGAIN WELL
OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THEN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN GULF. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      37  62  40  57  38 /  00  05  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   41  62  43  58  40 /  00  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      44  62  46  56  44 /  00  00  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   34  62  38  55  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
WAYNESBORO  34  62  38  56  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
CAMDEN      33  62  38  53  35 /  00  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   34  64  39  56  37 /  00  05  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 242049
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
249 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
EAST COAST REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES HAVE
RETURNED TO THE CWFA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL LOW CLOUD COVER HAS
PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAS DISSIPATED OVER INLAND AREAS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES TONIGHT TO NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
LOW/TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASED LOWER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE. WE HAVE OPTED TO TREND TEMPERATURES
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER 60S AT BEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN
KY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR CWFA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH THE
15-25 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST...BUT
WE CURRENTLY EXPECT GUSTS TO RANGE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. /21

WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING...SHARPENS AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR. A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT...TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH) AHEAD OF THIS FRONT KEEPS
RAINFALL OUT OF THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER/MID 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
OFF THE EAST COAST TO START THE NEW WEEK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING
DOMINATED BY A DRY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND
30 MPH THERE. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING DOWN
INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY...MOVES EAST NEXT WEEK...EXTENDING TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY.

UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND NEXT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. MAY BE ENOUGH JET STREAK DYNAMICS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS...THOUGH...IS
FAIRLY LOW TO MENTION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GIVEN THAT THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN THE MID 50S/MID 60S NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR
TO LOWER/MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL ZONES...ON AVERAGE. NOT TOO BAD FOR
THE LAST WEEK IN JANUARY. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
24.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. /21

&&

.MARINE...OBSERVATIONS OFFSHORE INDICATE THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE
GRADUALLY DECREASING TO WITHIN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE AS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT
KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
IN SPEED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES EASTWARD AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. SEAS WILL ALSO LIKELY REBUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET AGAIN WELL
OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THEN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN GULF. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      37  62  40  57  38 /  00  05  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   41  62  43  58  40 /  00  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      44  62  46  56  44 /  00  00  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   34  62  38  55  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
WAYNESBORO  34  62  38  56  36 /  00  05  05  05  00
CAMDEN      33  62  38  53  35 /  00  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   34  64  39  56  37 /  00  05  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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