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000
FXUS64 KMOB 252347 CCA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Mobile AL
638 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions will remain prevalent for the most part
across the forecast area through the next 24 hours with scattered to
occasionally broken high level cloud cover moving overhead. The
exception could once again be localized MVFR to IFR fog development
across isolated locations, mainly between 26.09-13Z early Thursday
morning. Confidence was low enough to keep VFR in the local TAFs
with this issuance. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...An upper level ridge will
remain in place through Thursday. This will maintain the hot and dry
conditions. Some patchy fog and low clouds will develop overnight
before gradually clearing during the morning. Lows tonight will fall
into the mid and upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. Highs
on Thursday will climb into the upper 80s to low and mid 80s along
the coast. Conditions will also become increasingly uncomfortable as
humidity levels rise. /13

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...A surface ridge
extending westward from the surface high pressure over the western
Atlantic will persist through Saturday, keeping a light south to
southeast wind flow over the region, along with dry weather
conditions. This wind flow will bring low level moisture northward
across the forecast area, resulting in patchy fog development late
each night through the short term. An upper level trough over the
central plains will lift northeast toward the Great Lakes on
Sunday. With the upper energy passing just off to the northwest,
have maintained isolated showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
for Sunday afternoon across our inland zones.

Low temperatures will range from 65 to 70 degrees inland areas...with
lower 70s along the immediate coastal sections. High temperatures
will range from 85 to 90 degrees inland areas...with lower 80s along
the immediate coastal sections. /22

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The Great Lakes upper trough
Sunday morning will eject off to the northeast while a system
meanders off the Georgia/South Carolina coastline through Tuesday.
Meanwhile a surface ridge over the area weakens, possibly yielding to
the development of a surface trough extending from the system off
the SE US coast. As a result, isolated to low-end scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible during the daytime hours through
the long term as the environment becomes more conducive for
convection. A gradual warming trend will occur through the period
with inland highs ranging from 90 to 95 degrees Monday through
Wednesday...with upper 80s along the coast. Lows will range from 68
to 73 degrees with mid 70s at the beaches. /22

MARINE...High pressure will continue from the the western Atlantic
into the southeast through the weekend. This will maintain a
generally light wind flow. Little change in seas expected through
the period. /13

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob



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000
FXUS64 KHUN 251157
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
657 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
 (Issued 412 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016)
Relatively quiet wx conditions once again prevail across the cntrl
TN Valley this early Wed morning, under partly cloudy skies and temp
trends predom in the 60s. Weak upper disturbance which moved across
the Mid South Region late yesterday evening has well dissipated,
other than some very light returns lingering over mid TN. Upper
ridge pattern continues to become somewhat established over the SE
states, while high pressure at the sfc translates ewd into the
mid/srn Atlantic Basin. With the sfc high well to the e, return/sly
flow is well entrenched across the region, allowing Gulf moisture to
gradually stream back into the area. Slightly warmer temps should
also be the trend later Today, with the upper ridge well in place
now. Afternoon highs climbing more toward the upper 80s look to
develop mainly over the cntrl/wrn zones. Latest model suites are
hinting at some additional weak upper disturbances traversing ewd
over the Mid South/Mid TN Valley Regions later Today as well, and
may result in a few showers/tstms near the mid TN/AL border.

The seasonably warm pattern will continue Tonight and into the
latter half of the work week, with overnight lows trending mainly in
the mid 60s. Afternoon temps approaching the upper 80s to near 90F
look reasonable as well going into Thu, as the upper ridge becomes a
bit better established over the far sern states. However, latest
models are still showing the prob for an upper disturbance or two
possibly making it into the Mid TN Valley again on Thu providing for
a few showers/tstms over the srn Mid TN counties.

Rain chances still look to return for all of the local area by Fri,
as the upper ridge pattern over the SE region drifts ewd and the
flow pattern becomes a bit more active out of the sw. The latter
half of the model spread is still hinting at some additional upper
waves beginning to move newd across parts of the area starting Fri.
With a light return flow pattern keeping some moisture advection in
place, this at warrants a slight chc for showers/tstms heading into
the weekend period, consistent with the current forecast. The flow
pattern may become a bit more active as the new work week begins, as
deep upper troughing to the w shifts slightly to the e allowing a
few more of these upper disturbances to affect the region.

Overall temps this weekend period and into next week look to remain
seasonably warm, with most of the region remaining under the
influence of the Subtropical ridge well to the se. Afternoon highs
mainly in the mid/upper 80s look to prevail while overnight lows
predom hold in the mid 60s.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
For 12Z TAFs: Weak upper-air disturbance continues to push slowly ewd
across the region this morning, with bkn altostratus deck and some
virga/light sprinkles expected to persist thru 16z. This will be
replaced later this morning by sct-bkn ci debris clouds originating
from MCS currently across western AR. Although bulk of pcpn
associated with this feature will likely be steered to the n/w of the
region, amds to include shra/tsra may be required later this aftn.
Another weak disturbance will push across the area late tonight,
bringing thicker mid/high-level clouds once again. A slightly greater
threat for a few showers also will exist as the low-level jet
strengthens after dark. Sw sfc flow in the 5-10 kt range will back to
sse and diminish after sunset.

70/DD

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251047 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
547 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Vfr conditions forecast in the near term. Satellite
indicates that high level clouds will advance in from the northwest
this morning due to blow off from deep convection moving eastward into
western and central Arkansas. Heading into the afternoon...expect to
see the formation of cu with bases between 3 and 5 kft. Patchy fog
at daybreak dissipates quickly after sunrise. Light winds this
morning become southeast through the day between 8 and 12 knots. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...Upper air weather maps
show a short wave mid level ridge axis extending from the western
Gulf into the Lower Mississippi River Delta. This feature acts as a
shield over the local area from deep convection and severe storms
which continues to impact the plains states. A stark contrast in deep
layer moisture is advertised in the near term. Along the western
periphery of the deep layer ridge axis...forecasters note that layer
moisture (pwats increase to a range from 1.7 to 1.9 inches from the
Lower Mississippi River Delta to eastern Texas). Across the central
Gulf Coast...within the eastern periphery of the ridge axis (pwats
range from 1.2 to 1.4 inches on average by this afternoon. Despite
some moderation in deep moisture levels in comparison to the past few
days...larger scale subsidence from the upper ridge keeps mention of rain
out of the forecast. Surface high pressure continues to the east
with a light south to southeast wind flow forecast. Under a mix of
sun and developing fair weather cumulus clouds through the day...high
temperatures are forecast to lift into the upper 80`s to lower 90`s
along and north of I-10. Slightly lower highs by a category in the
mid 80`s along the beaches due to flow coming in off the Gulf. For
tonight...with slightly higher surface based moisture/higher
dewpoints...there are indications that support the potential of late
night patchy fog development. Overnight lows forecast in the mid 60`s
interior to lower 70`s coast. /10

SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...An upper ridge over the
eastern states weakens through Friday as an upper trof advances
across the Plains. An upper low meanwhile advances northward from
the Bahamas, including development of an associated surface low. An
east-west oriented surface ridge over the southeast states begins to
shift northward as the Bahamas system advances, but regardless
promotes a generally light southerly flow over the forecast area. Model
soundings show subsidence effects from the weakening ridging which will
promote continued dry conditions over the forecast area. Highs will
be mostly in the upper 80s inland with mid 80s near the coast. Lows
will be in the mid 60s inland with upper 60s/near 70 closer to the
coast. /29

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The Plains upper trof ejects
off across the Great Lakes region through Sunday while the system
north of the Bahamas moves to near the Carolinas, then weakens
through Tuesday. Upper ridging builds over the lower Mississippi
river region through Sunday then weakens through Tuesday during this
transition, while a surface ridge over the area weakens, possibly
yielding to the development of a surface trof extending from the
system over/near the Carolinas. Have opted to continue with a dry
forecast for Saturday, although a storm or two may develop, then
stayed with slight chance pops for Sunday and Monday, with slightly
higher pops for Tuesday as the environment becomes more conducive for
convection. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s, then
trend to around 90 for much of the area except for mid/upper 80s near
the coast. Lows Saturday night will range from the mid/upper 60s
inland to around 70 at the coast, then trend warmer to the upper 60s
inland with lower 70s near the coast by Monday night. /29

MARINE...Very little change in south to southeast flow through
Saturday noted in the coastal waters forecast as high pressure
extends from off the Mid-Atlantic Coast into the southeast. A weak
surface pressure pattern sets up on Sunday resulting in light winds
of varying direction. Seas around 2 feet through Thursday become 2 to
3 feet Friday and Saturday. Rain chances look slim to none through
the period. /10

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KMOB 250814
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
314 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...Upper air weather maps
show a short wave mid level ridge axis extending from the western
Gulf into the Lower Mississippi River Delta. This feature acts as a
shield over the local area from deep convection and severe storms
which continues to impact the plains states. A stark contrast in deep
layer moisture is advertised in the near term. Along the western
periphery of the deep layer ridge axis...forecasters note that layer
moisture (pwats increase to a range from 1.7 to 1.9 inches from the
Lower Mississippi River Delta to eastern Texas). Across the central
Gulf Coast...within the eastern periphery of the ridge axis (pwats
range from 1.2 to 1.4 inches on average by this afternoon. Despite
some moderation in deep moisture levels in comparison to the past few
days...larger scale subsidence from the upper ridge keeps mention of rain
out of the forecast. Surface high pressure continues to the east
with a light south to southeast wind flow forecast. Under a mix of
sun and developing fair weather cumulus clouds through the day...high
temperatures are forecast to lift into the upper 80`s to lower 90`s
along and north of I-10. Slightly lower highs by a category in the
mid 80`s along the beaches due to flow coming in off the Gulf. For
tonight...with slightly higher surface based moisture/higher
dewpoints...there are indications that support the potential of late
night patchy fog development. Overnight lows forecast in the mid 60`s
interior to lower 70`s coast. /10

.SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...An upper ridge over the
eastern states weakens through Friday as an upper trof advances
across the Plains. An upper low meanwhile advances northward from
the Bahamas, including development of an associated surface low. An
east-west oriented surface ridge over the southeast states begins to
shift northward as the Bahamas system advances, but regardless
promotes a generally light southerly flow over the forecast area. Model
soundings show subsidence effects from the weakening ridging which will
promote continued dry conditions over the forecast area. Highs will
be mostly in the upper 80s inland with mid 80s near the coast. Lows
will be in the mid 60s inland with upper 60s/near 70 closer to the
coast. /29

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The Plains upper trof ejects
off across the Great Lakes region through Sunday while the system
north of the Bahamas moves to near the Carolinas, then weakens
through Tuesday. Upper ridging builds over the lower Mississippi
river region through Sunday then weakens through Tuesday during this
transition, while a surface ridge over the area weakens, possibly
yielding to the development of a surface trof extending from the
system over/near the Carolinas. Have opted to continue with a dry
forecast for Saturday, although a storm or two may develop, then
stayed with slight chance pops for Sunday and Monday, with slightly
higher pops for Tuesday as the environment becomes more conducive for
convection. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s, then
trend to around 90 for much of the area except for mid/upper 80s near
the coast. Lows Saturday night will range from the mid/upper 60s
inland to around 70 at the coast, then trend warmer to the upper 60s
inland with lower 70s near the coast by Monday night. /29

&&

.MARINE...Very little change in south to southeast flow through
Saturday noted in the coastal waters forecast as high pressure
extends from off the Mid-Atlantic Coast into the southeast. A weak
surface pressure pattern sets up on Sunday resulting in light winds
of varying direction. Seas around 2 feet through Thursday become 2 to
3 feet Friday and Saturday. Rain chances look slim to none through
the period. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      88  66  86  67 /   0  10  10   0
Pensacola   86  71  85  70 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      84  72  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   90  63  89  64 /   0   0  10  10
Waynesboro  90  63  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
Camden      89  63  89  64 /  10   0  10  10
Crestview   91  63  90  63 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob



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000
FXUS64 KBMX 250456
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Storms to the northwest over Arkansas, Western Tennessee, and
Northern Mississippi are moving to the southeast toward Alabama.
However, they have been decreasing in intensity on radar, showing
warming cloud tops on IR satellite and have dramatically decreased
in lightning activity with the loss of heating. Most of the models
do not have any precip making it into Central Alabama. The 00z
HRRR tries to bring in a light shower in the northwest counties
well after midnight, but will only carry some unmentioned 10 pops
in the grids as the probability is very low that any storms hold
together that far to the southeast. Have made only minimal changes
to the overnight lows. They will be milder once again tonight.
Have added in more cloud cover in the grids as we should get a
little increased cloudiness from the decaying storms.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Outside of the potential for a brief period of visibility
dropping to MVFR due to BR around sunrise at TOI, VFR and
rain-free conditions will be predominant through the period.
Winds will be calm tonight, becoming southerly 5-10 kts Wednesday
afternoon.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected through the week with only minimal
rain chances. Low level moisture will slowly increase through the
end of the week. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  88  61  89  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
Anniston    60  88  64  88  66 /   0  10   0  10  10
Birmingham  62  88  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  62  88  64  89  67 /   0  10   0  10  10
Calera      61  87  66  88  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Auburn      61  88  65  86  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Montgomery  62  90  66  91  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Troy        61  89  62  91  67 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250212
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
912 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Adjusted pops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temps across the cwa at 9 pm were in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Dewpoints were between 55 and 60 degrees. Convection now over sern
MO/nern AR/wrn TN will have a hard time moving east overnight due to
a large sfc high over much of the sern US. Also 00z u/a soundings
from OHX/BMX were fairly dry in the mid/lower levels. Did adjust pops
up a little over nw AL but still under 15 percent. New NAM model
coming in has all pcpn dissipating before in reaches the TN Valley
overnight. There may be a sprinkle or two over extreme nw AL but the
coverage and intensity should be very isolated. Otherwise did not
make any other changes to the fcst attm.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 559 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016)
For 00Z TAFs: A sfc high covers much of the sern us along with a
weak upper ridge. Convection over AR/MO will dissipate as it tries to
move east tonight. This is due to subsidence across the area and a
fairy dry atmosphere from 7H to the sfc. However will have sct/bkn
ci across the taf sites thru the fcst period. Otherwise vfr
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours for both KMSL and KHSV.

007

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 242009
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
309 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A quasi-Omega pattern is setup over much of North America with
evidence of its gradual demise already showing within water vapor
sat imagery. This pattern is characterized by an upper low off the
CONUS Atlantic coast, ridging over the Midwest/Southeast and upper
low over the Western half of the country. The curious thing about
the Western half of the Omega block is there are several shortwave
troughs within the primary upper low. The sensible impacts to the TN
Valley forecast will be a gradual increase in low-mid levels, warm
daytime high temperatures in the 80s, and increasing chances for
thunderstorms beginning Memorial Day Weekend.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The prevailing NW flow aloft on the western flank of the
aforementioned upper low just off the New England coast has brought
a generally subsident environment across the Southeast. An impact of
this subsident, dry environment is the air quality alerts that are in
effect for nearby metro areas of Birmingham, Nashville, and Atlanta.
Will continue to monitor our area in case we need one over the coming
days.

For tonight, expect pleasant, warm conditions to prevail with
overnight lows expected to be a little warmer in the upper 50s to
low 60s. Wednesday`s forecast should be similar to today`s weather
with daytime highs rising into the upper 80s (if not 90). However, as
the upper low continues to move off to the northeast, weakly
amplified shortwaves moving within the subtropical jet edging towards
the TN valley may in fact bring isolated/scattered thunderstorms over
MS/OH river valleys. Though a few of these storms may move close to
the TN valley, anticipating that the dry air over the TN valley will
likely cause these storms to dissipate before arrival. So, the main
impact may be more cloud cover.

The ridge amplifies across the MS/TN river valleys on Thursday and
am slightly increasing daytime highs. With subsident profile
increasing once again on Thursday, have kept a dry, but warm
forecast. However, surface dewpoints will likely be higher given the
movement of the sfc high pressure system eastward over the Atlantic
yielding moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico/western Atlantic.

As the upper flow pattern continues to shift, several shortwave
troughs over the western half of the country will continue to bring
the possibility of showers and thunderstorms over those areas. In
fact, an additional chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
possible over the Central and Southern Plains into the Ozarks on
Friday. In addition, the movement of the Southeast/OH River Valley
ridge eastward towards the Atlantic (that had been in place on
Thursday) will likely lend towards greater possibility of isolated
afternoon thunderstorms developing over the TN Valley especially over
NW Alabama.

The model depiction of the pattern change for the weekend is rather
chaotic due to what looks to be a tropical/subtropical disturbance
forming just off the Florida Atlantic Coastline underneath the
ridge on Saturday. Meanwhile that Plains shortwave trough will be
moving over the Midwest and Northern Plains effectively up/over the
ridge. The primary impact from the trajectory of that tropical
disturbance (if that model solution verifies) would likely be dry
air inhibiting storm growth. Though the tropical disturbance will
likely not indirectly impact storm growth on Saturday/Sunday,
isolated thunderstorms would still be possible on both days mainly
due to daytime heating. The nature of these storms would tend
towards pulse-like updrafts with quick episodes of rain.

Though higher chances of showers/storms are currently in the
forecast exist on Memorial Day/Tuesday, have included low chance
pops mainly due to aforementioned dry air that would inhibit storm
development.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1254 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016)
For 18Z TAFs: VFR conds prevail at HSV/MSL this aftn...with only
clouds expected to consist of a few high-based cu beneath sct
ac/ci. Although majority of the cloud cover will dissipate early this
evening...a weakening upper-air disturbance currently over AR/OK will
approach region from the west resulting in development of a thicker
deck of mid/high-lvl clouds prior to sunrise. Due to weakening nature
of the disturbance and lingering dry air across the region, any
associated shra/tsra should remain to the N/W of the region. Sfc
winds will fluctuate within the 4-8 kt range, with sw flow expected
during the daylight hrs and sse flow at night.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    60  89  63  89 /   0  10  10  10
Shoals        63  88  65  89 /  10  10  10  10
Vinemont      61  86  64  86 /   0  10  10  10
Fayetteville  62  86  64  87 /  10  10  10  10
Albertville   60  86  63  87 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Payne    59  86  63  86 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 242007
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
307 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The doldrums of summer weather have already set-in across Alabama.
An upper ridge over the Southeast states will keep the active
weather on the western and northern periphery of Alabama through
Friday. Despite above normal temperatures for the next several
days, afternoon humidity values will be bearable with values
dropping into the 30 percent range. A few showers or thunderstorms
may pop-up Thursday and Friday across the far northern counties.
Slightly better rain chances once we get into the weekend as a
surface low off the Southeast coast moves close to the Carolinas,
but rain chances only at 20 percent. The Atlantic system could
bring a slight cool down for the eastern counties Friday and
Saturday as cooler air off the Atlantic shifts westward, but
warming up again as the Sunday and Monday as the low level flow
becomes northerly. The models are not showing much rainfall early
next week due to weak ridging over the Southeast states with an
embedded remnant low to our east.

Humdrum.

58/Rose

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Satellite and METAR observations show VFR conditions across the
entire CWA. VFR conditions are expected to remain for the region
for the rest of the day and evening. A few high clouds may sink
down into the northern counties as a surface low passes to our
north over Tennessee. Winds are expected to remain light and
mostly from a southwest direction. If a a light easterly wind does
develop near the Anniston and Talladega area, along the
Tallapoosa and Coosa rivers, there might be slight chance of some
haze early in the morning.

92


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected through the week with only minimal
rain chances. Low level moisture will slowly increase through the
end of the week. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  88  61  89  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
Anniston    59  88  64  88  66 /   0  10   0  10  10
Birmingham  63  88  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  62  88  64  89  67 /   0  10   0  10  10
Calera      61  87  66  88  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Auburn      61  88  65  86  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Montgomery  62  90  66  91  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Troy        61  89  62  91  67 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 241721
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level heights begin increasing today as the ridge begins
building. Models are not quite as robust this run but the heights
are still in the 588dam range. The low level thicknesses and 850
temps are generally the same as previous runs. Very little spread
once again from the GFS ensemble members with highs 85 to 90,
while the ECMWF is slightly higher and displays more standard
deviation. Still leaning toward the higher members of the
ensembles with highs 86 to 91 through Friday. Rain chances remain
low as the mean relative humidity values stay in the 50-60 range,
precipitable water values just over 1 inch, and little in the way
of a trigger.

By the weekend, an upper low moves westward from the Atlantic and
will affect Central Alabama. Upper heights will fall east to west
and thicknesses and 750 temps follow suite. Will advertise a
gradient in highs from east to west Saturday and beyond. Rain
chances do not increase dramatically as upper flow is light but
moisture increases enough to mention small chances everywhere
mainly daytime.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Satellite and METAR observations show VFR conditions across the
entire CWA. VFR conditions are expected to remain for the region
for the rest of the day and evening. A few high clouds may sink
down into the northern counties as a surface low passes to our
north over Tennessee. Winds are expected to remain light and
mostly from a southwest direction. If a a light easterly wind does
develop near the Anniston and Talladaga area, along the
Tallapoosa and Coosa rivers, there might be slight chance of some
haze early in the morning.

92

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected through Wednesday with only minimal
rain chances the remainder of the week. Low level moisture will
increase slowly through the end of the week, but this afternoon
and Wednesday afternoon relative humidity values drop into the
30s. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  89  63  89  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
Anniston    61  88  65  88  66 /   0  10   0  10  10
Birmingham  64  89  67  89  68 /   0  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  63  89  66  89  68 /   0  10   0  10  10
Calera      63  88  66  88  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Auburn      63  86  67  86  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Montgomery  64  91  67  91  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Troy        62  90  66  90  66 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 241124
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
624 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...vfr conditions forecast. Light winds to begin the
period turn south to southeasterly 8 to 13 knots late morning into
the afternoon. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...Quiet weather pattern
continues in the near term. A short wave mid level ridge axis noses
northeast from the western Gulf into the Lower Mississippi River
Valley thru tonight. Larger scale subsidence associated with this
feature and forecast bufr soundings showing pwats at or less than 1
inch keeps rain out of the forecast. Considering the drier air
aloft...it is anticipated that surface dewpoints will mix out (lower)
through the day...resulting in another day of low humidity. Under
mostly sunny skies...highs warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s along
and north of I-10. Surface high pressure extending from the central
Gulf Coast to off into the southwest Atlantic supports a light south
to southeast flow today. Flow off the Gulf keeps highs about a
category lower...in the mid 80s along the beaches. Overnight lows
mainly in the lower 60s interior to upper 60s/lower 70s beaches. /10

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...Upper ridging over
the eastern states shifts slowly eastward through Thursday, with an
upper low forming over the Bahamas, while an upper trof advances from
the western states into the Plains. A surface ridge persists over
the Gulf coast states through the period and maintains a light
onshore flow over the forecast area. Deep layer moisture increases
gradually over the area through the period, but subsidence from the
upper ridge over the region will support staying with a dry forecast
for now through Thursday night. Highs will be near 90 inland with mid
80s at the coast. Lows Wednesday night will range from the lower 60s
inland to upper 60s at the coast, then trend a bit warmer for
Thursday night to mid 60s inland and around 70 at the coast. /29

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...The Plains upper trof ejects off
across the Great Lakes region through Sunday while the Bahamas upper
low, and associated surface low, advance into the Carolinas. Will
continue with dry conditions for Friday, then expect isolated
convection to be possible Saturday and Sunday from the sea breeze
and possible enhancement of convergence along the sea breeze from
synoptic scale northerly winds associated with the surface low
moving into the Carolinas. Unclear at this point on whether the
Carolinas system will travel northward along the East Coast or linger
over the extreme southeast states, but have continued with slight
chance pops over the area for now. Highs on Friday and Saturday will
range from the upper 80s inland to the lower/mid 80s closer to the
coast, then trend warmer through Monday to around 90 except for upper
80s at the coast. Lows will range from the mid/upper 60s inland to
the lower 70s at the coast. /29

MARINE...A light southeast to south wind flow is forecast through
the week with high pressure positioned from the southwest Atlantic
to the central Gulf Coast. Seas around 2 feet through Wednesday
night become 2 to 3 feet Thursday through early Saturday. Next chance
of showers and storms looks to enter the forecast by
Saturday...mainly over the near shore waters. /10

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




000
FXUS64 KBMX 240500
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1200 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Near calm surface winds tonight across much of Central Alabama but
not expected quite as cool temperatures tonight as last night as
our main northerly flow is cut off as ridge weakens and moves
eastward. Also, we have a upper northwest flow cirrus shield that
has been filtering into the area this evening that will hamper our
cooling a little. With that said, we are cooling best and still a
tad quicker in the north and east as expected with a retreating
ridge. Have lowered in these areas a couple of degrees, but albeit
still not as cool as last night.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. There is a
small chance that visibility may briefly drop to MVFR at TOI due
to localized ground fog around sunrise, but chances are too low to
include in the TAF. Winds will be calm overnight and become light
southerly Tuesday, remaining 6 kts or less.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected through Wednesday with only minimal
rain chances the remainder of the week. Low level moisture will
increase slowly through the end of the week. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 304 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

Memorial Day may mark the beginning of summer, but temperatures
will get a head start this week with highs forecast in the 85 to
90 degree range. A large upper low currently off the mid-Atlantic
coast will get replaced by an upper ridge over the Southeast
states by Wednesday. This will prevent deeper moisture over the
Southern Plains states from advancing east of the Mississippi
river. There will be a few weak impulses that ride over the top of
the upper ridge, and this may produce a few afternoon showers or
thunderstorms across the far northern counties Wednesday through
Friday. The models are forecasting a surface low developing off
the southeast Florida coast by the end of the week. Thy system
will likely stay over water or possibly track into the Carolinas.
Alabama will be on the back side of the system which would not
favor any organized convection. However, there can be areas of
low level convergence on the west side of weaker systems and this
could bring a slight increase in rain chances over east Alabama
Saturday and Sunday.

58/Rose

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     50  85  58  87  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
Anniston    54  85  60  88  64 /   0   0   0  10   0
Birmingham  57  87  63  88  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Tuscaloosa  56  88  63  89  67 /   0   0   0  10   0
Calera      57  86  63  88  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      55  85  64  86  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  57  88  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        55  88  63  90  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 240207
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
907 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Tweaked sky grids.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Still have ci clouds moving se across the wrn half of the cwa from
convection over the midwest. Made a few adjustment to sky cover,
otherwise rest of the fcst looks good attm. Expect mild and dry
conditions across the cwa tonight, thanks to a weak area of high
pressure.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 527 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016)
For 00Z TAFs: Blow off clouds (AOA 10,000 ft) from convection across
the midwest will move across the taf sites for much of this fcst
period. Otherwise expect vfr conditions for the next 24 hours at both
KMSL and KHSV.

007

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

Pleasantly warm, dry conditions are expected to continue through
tonight as synoptic ridging on the eastern flank of an Omega block
continues. In particular, afternoon cumulus clouds should dissipate
with loss of daytime heating which with decoupling should yield
overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. With calm winds, low dewpoint
depressions, and decoupling overnight, could see some patchy fog
mainly near the rivers, lakes, and valleys overnight.

Sensible weather impacts for Tuesday should not be much different
from today over the TN valley as the Omega block gradually begins to
shift to the east. The main difference will be cloud cover from
upstream convective activity. As a result, the sfc high pressure
system moves atop the TN valley with little in the way of moisture
advection noted. This will mean warm temperatures into the 80s while
dewpoints in the low 50s will likely prevail.

Then, on Wednesday as the synoptic ridge dampens across the
Southeast and the upper low over the Intermountain West begins to
shift east, the synoptic models are showing less subsidence and
moisture advection developing. Curiously, the orientation of flow
pattern in the low-mid levels look to actually bring moisture
originating from the western Atlantic across GA to AL. However, it
looks like this will not be strong enough to saturate the vertical
column as forecast model soundings show dry profiles. Because of
this and lack of appreciable lifting mechanism, have removed
isolated thunderstorms from the forecast on Wednesday.

Subsidence continues to subside on Thursday/into the beginning of
Memorial Day weekend (Friday), but with SW flow aloft developing as
the subtropical jet becomes oriented across the Southeast, above
seasonably warm conditions are anticipated with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. A couple of mid-level shortwave troughs moving within the
subtropical jet may provide just enough lift for isolated to
scattered ordinary thunderstorms to develop on Thursday into Friday.
The thunderstorms would likely be more pulse-like in nature with the
highest threat over northwest Alabama and Western TN/Northern MS.

The rest of the Memorial Day weekend looks to be more summer-like
with warm temperatures approaching 90 degrees while humidity
increases. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms look possible with the
upper flow pattern exhibiting dampened ridging aloft across much of
the Southeast.

SL.77

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 240202 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
902 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...The ongoing forecast for tonight looks on track and no
significant changes are necessary. A few high clouds will stream
overhead tonight, but mostly clear wording looks appropriate. Another
relatively cool night is anticipated with lows in the mid 50s to near
60 over interior areas, with readings varying through the 60s near
the immediate coast and beaches. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...A VFR forecast continues across the region through the
next 24 hours. The seabreeze has pushed north of the local coastal
terminals, allowing for south to southwest winds around 10 knots at
KMOB/KBFM/KPNS. Winds should subside and become light/variable or
calm later this evening through early Tuesday morning before becoming
south around 10 knots again late Tuesday morning into Tuesday
afternoon. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...Mid to upper ridge axis near the
central Louisiana coast stretching north to the upper Mississippi
River valley and great lakes region will shift east to the central
gulf states and Tennessee river valley through Tuesday afternoon. At
the surface a broad ridge of high pressure mostly centered along the
Mississippi...Alabama and northwest Florida coast will shift east
along the coast through Tuesday afternoon with a stalled frontal
boundary stretching from west central Louisiana to the near the mouth
of the Mississippi river and further to the southeast out over the
open gulf waters of Mississippi...Alabama and the western Florida
panhandle progged to drift northward and become less organized
through Tuesday afternoon. With this pattern expect continued dry
weather through Tuesday afternoon with more thin high clouds moving
to the southeast across the region mainly from the strong convection
continuing over the mid section of the country. As result will
continue to mention mostly clear skies tonight followed by mostly
sunny skies on Tuesday.

As for temps have opted to lean generally towards the slightly
warmer mav/ecmwf guidance through Tuesday afternoon mostly due to
better subsidence in the lower to mid levels along with better
consistency with other wfos. Tonight`s lows will fall to the mid to
upper 50s for most inland areas well away from the coast and the
upper 50s to lower 60s closer to the coast. Highs Tuesday will climb
to the upper 80s to lower 90s for inland areas and the middle 80s
near the immediate coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...Upper energy
over the western Conus shifts east, pushing an upper ridge over the
Mississippi river valley east, to over the Eastern seaboard. A
surface ridge that has organized over the northern Gulf coast remains
pretty much intact...creating a moisture increasing flow off the Gulf
over the fa through this part of the forecast. Even with moisture
levels increasing, subsidence from the upper ridge pretty much
squashes any chance of rain through Thursday night. The ridge does
bring temps at or a bit above seasonal levels, which for this time
of the year means overnight lows in the 60s, daytime highs in the mid
to upper 80s. And with this time of the year, the increasing moisture
levels rise high enough to bump afternoon heat index temperatures to
around 90, with some localities seeing low 90s.

/16

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...Shortwave energy that has
settled over the Caribbean tries to organize as it meanders north
along the Florida atlantic coast through the weekend. Guidance is
inconsistent in this respect. As it does, guidance is consistent in
allowing some shortwave energy to pass over the fa Saturday and
Sunday, weakening the upper ridge and allowing for daytime/evening
tsra development Saturday and Sunday before moving off. Guidance has
been inconsistent in advertising the return of rain up to this point,
though. Looking at the ensemble MOS from the 00Z runs, both the GFS
and ECMWF are consistent in a chance of rain Saturday and Sunday, so
have a bit higher confidence putting it into the forecast for this
package. The ridge does keep temps at or above seasonal levels
through the weekend.

/16

MARINE...Deep high pressure will persist over the north central and
eastern gulf through the remainder of the week...leading to a light
southerly flow this afternoon and tonight...continuing through early
Wednesday...then gradually building later in the week as the ridge
of high pressure drifts east in response to the next upper trof of
low pressure moving in the central and lower plains states. Little
change in seas is expected through early Wednesday followed by a
slow build for the remainder of the week as southerly winds become
better developed. The next significant rainfall looks to move into
the region by the weekend with the most of the measurable rain
occurring inland including most inland bays and sounds. 32/ee

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob




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