000
FXUS64 KHUN 161126 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
626 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012/
A FAIRLY QUIET BUT COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OF CANADA WITH A
MEANDERING WEAK CUTOFF LOW DROPPING ACROSS CENTRAL NV. IN THE
MEANTIME, AN ELONGATED/POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES EXTENDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.
TO THE NORTH OF THIS ELONGATED TROUGH IS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO.

THE ELONGATED TROUGH HAS DIVED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE TN
VALLEY DRY AND WARM, AS DAYTIME HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELONGATED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
NORTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS OVER THAT AREA `COOLER` THAN THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL PRODUCTS ARE THEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING WEAK COLD FRONT) DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES FOR THURSDAY.

THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES TO BE A QUESTION MARK, RETAINED
ISOLATED (MAINLY AFTERNOON) THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER NE AL/PORTIONS OF S MIDDLE TN. INVERTED V
PROFILES ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS DUE TO
MICROBURSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO AVERAGE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THIS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH, THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD (OR JUST OFF SHORE) WITH REMNANT ENERGY FROM THE ELONGATED
TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THOUGH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
UNDERNEATH THE ANTICYCLONE APPEARS TO BE OF A WEAK NATURE, HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ALSO DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER, ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AL. SATURDAY LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE REMAINING FORECAST CHALLENGE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE THE MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS
BY MONDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING WEAK SFC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO STALL
OVER THE MS AND OH RIVERS BY TUESDAY AS THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES
SHIFT NORTH, EFFECTIVELY  SHEARING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTH. THUS, HAVE PULLED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORECAST ON MONDAY AND
INSTEAD KEPT THEM FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH KEEPS ME FROM PLACING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY
AROUND 14Z ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE ADDED IN MVFR FOG CONDITIONS FROM 09Z
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH MSL AND HSV FOR
EXPECTED FOG DEVELOPMENT.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KMOB 160918
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE AXIS OF THE POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROF CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHILE A WEAKLY REFLECTED SURFACE TROF
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SHIFTS EASTWARD SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE.  A
LAND BREEZE CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER THE AREA AND WILL SEE ANOTHER SEA
BREEZE DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS.  ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC...AFTERNOON 0-1 KM MLCAPES LOOK TO INCREASE TO
700-1000 J/KG.  SREF POPS ARE RATHER HIGH FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
TODAY...AROUND 60 PERCENT...BUT MAY SEE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DROP
AGAIN LIKE YESTERDAY SO HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND.  ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING FOR LINGERING
CONVECTION THEN JUST OVER THE MARINE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
ISOLATED LAND BREEZE CONVECTION.  THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS LOW. /29

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN STATES. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LVL TEMPS
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
WEAKNESS LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13


&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES.  LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SEA BREEZE THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAND
BREEZE. /29


&&

.MARINE...A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA REMAINS
WEAK WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON
THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY AGAIN AT NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHEASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KNOTS...SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FURTHER OFFSHORE. /29


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  62  89  62 /  30  20  05  10
PENSACOLA   87  67  87  67 /  30  20  10  10
DESTIN      84  69  82  68 /  30  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   87  60  90  58 /  20  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  87  59  89  58 /  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      87  60  89  58 /  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   88  61  91  58 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KBMX 160829
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RATHER
DISORGANIZED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL FOCUS OR INHIBITION IS EVIDENT IN THE MODEL TRENDS...BUT DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND NO ORGANIZED LOWER LEVEL FORCING COMBINED
WITH RELATIVELY SMALL INSTABILITY LEADS ME TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PUSHES WEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST AND
SPREADS WEST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING
ESTABLISHED BY THEN AND STILL LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION. I HAVE NOT
STRAYED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS POPS OR TEMPERATURES.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
PUSHING EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND RETREATS EASTWARD SHOULD ALLOW A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION TO CREEP BACK
INTO THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE FROM 07-14Z MAINLY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
NEAR CALM WINDS REST OF THE NIGHT...THEN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THINK THREAT FOR ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
VERY LOW AND MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.
CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET TO INCLUDE AT ANY TAF SITES.

49

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  54  85  59  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    84  54  85  58  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  85  57  85  59  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  87  58  89  61  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      85  57  85  59  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      84  60  84  58  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  88  60  90  63  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        87  60  88  61  87 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07/07/07

000
FXUS64 KHUN 160801
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
301 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY QUIET BUT COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OF CANADA WITH A
MEANDERING WEAK CUTOFF LOW DROPPING ACROSS CENTRAL NV. IN THE
MEANTIME, AN ELONGATED/POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES EXTENDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.
TO THE NORTH OF THIS ELONGATED TROUGH IS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO.

THE ELONGATED TROUGH HAS DIVED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE TN
VALLEY DRY AND WARM, AS DAYTIME HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELONGATED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
NORTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS OVER THAT AREA `COOLER` THAN THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL PRODUCTS ARE THEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING WEAK COLD FRONT) DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES FOR THURSDAY.

THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES TO BE A QUESTION MARK, RETAINED
ISOLATED (MAINLY AFTERNOON) THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER NE AL/PORTIONS OF S MIDDLE TN. INVERTED V
PROFILES ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS DUE TO
MICROBURSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO AVERAGE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THIS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH, THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD (OR JUST OFF SHORE) WITH REMNANT ENERGY FROM THE ELONGATED
TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THOUGH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
UNDERNEATH THE ANTICYCLONE APPEARS TO BE OF A WEAK NATURE, HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ALSO DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER, ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AL. SATURDAY LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE REMAINING FORECAST CHALLENGE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE THE MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS
BY MONDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING WEAK SFC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO STALL
OVER THE MS AND OH RIVERS BY TUESDAY AS THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES
SHIFT NORTH, EFFECTIVELY  SHEARING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTH. THUS, HAVE PULLED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORECAST ON MONDAY AND
INSTEAD KEPT THEM FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH KEEPS ME FROM PLACING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1219 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PD. PATCHY BR/FG MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT (AFT 09Z) ALONG THE TN RIVER INCLUDING KHSV/KMSL VCNTYS.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM AT THE TAF SITES...AND PSBLY
LOWER ALONG SOME AREAS OF THE TN RIVER...MAINLY IN NERN AL.
OTRW...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND FEW-SCT CU ARE XPCTD TUE.

KULA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  56  86  60  86 /   0  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        86  56  86  60  87 /   0  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      83  59  84  63  84 /   0  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  83  56  84  60  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   83  55  84  58  83 /   0  10  20  10  20
FORT PAYNE    82  53  84  57  84 /   0  10  20  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KBMX 160602
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
ISSUED BY NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
159 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED IN THE VICINITY OF
SURFACE TROUGH HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH
JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND. FEEL THESE TOO WILL DISSIPATE
SOON AND CURRENT LOW POP GRID FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE SAME
GOES FOR CURRENT TEMP AND SKY TRENDS AND NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED.

23/03
&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE FROM 07-14Z MAINLY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
NEAR CALM WINDS REST OF THE NIGHT...THEN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THINK THREAT FOR ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
VERY LOW AND MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.
CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET TO INCLUDE AT ANY TAF SITES.

49

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     55  82  54  85  59 /  10   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    57  83  56  84  60 /  10   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  60  83  60  85  63 /  10   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  85  58  86  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
CALERA      61  84  60  85  63 /  10   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      63  84  63  85  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  62  85  62  86  64 /  10   0  10  10  10
TROY        58  85  58  86  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KBMX 160522
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1221 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THE LAST
FEW HOURS WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND. FEEL THESE TOO
WILL DISSIPATE SOON AND CURRENT LOW POP GRID FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE SAME GOES FOR CURRENT TEMP AND SKY TRENDS AND NO
MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE FROM
07-14Z WEDNESDAY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP AT KMGM FOR SHRA AND
4SM. CIGS OF SCT050 SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR 02Z AND A SCT200 DECK
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH CALM WINDS THERE
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME REDUCED VSBYS TO NEAR 4SM AND BR DEVELOPMENT
AT KANB...KMGM...AND KTOI. WINDS SHOULD STAY NORTHERLY AND LIGHT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY 16Z
WEDNESDAY BUT STAY UNDER 10KTS.

23/03



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     55  82  54  85  59 /  10   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    57  83  56  84  60 /  10   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  60  83  60  85  63 /  10   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  85  58  86  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
CALERA      61  84  60  85  63 /  10   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      63  84  63  85  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  62  85  62  86  64 /  10   0  10  10  10
TROY        58  85  58  86  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

23

000
FXUS64 KHUN 160519 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 848 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS AVOIDED NRN AL/SRN TN THIS EVENING
AND WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. CI/CS
CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AXIS DROPS SE AS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NPN/88D PROFILER NETWORKS. THIS SHOULD
FURTHER LIMIT CI/CS COVERAGE THRU THE NIGHT. STEADY COOLING HAS TAKEN
PLACE AFT SUNSET INTO THE M-U60S OUTSIDE URBAN AREAS...TO AROUND 70
IN THE CITIES AT THIS HOUR.  WE WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS AFT 06Z GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...LIGHT
FLOW...EXPECTED RADIATION/DRAINAGE COOLING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

KULA

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PD. PATCHY BR/FG MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT (AFT 09Z) ALONG THE TN RIVER INCLUDING KHSV/KMSL VCNTYS.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM AT THE TAF SITES...AND PSBLY
LOWER ALONG SOME AREAS OF THE TN RIVER...MAINLY IN NERN AL.
OTRW...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND FEW-SCT CU ARE XPCTD TUE.

KULA

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KMOB 160441 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1141 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.AVIATION...(16/06Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION. CONFIDENCE OF IMPACT ON ANY OF THE THREE LOCAL TERMINALS
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE TSRA MENTION WITHIN THE TAF ATTM...BUT
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
LEVELS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING MVFR CIGS. /21

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
OUT INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS DRIER SFC AIR COMBINED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS
RESULTED IN MLCAPES STAYING BELOW 1000 J/KG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE (MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
I-65) THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS
AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO REBOUND PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
AND BECOME LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW LOW DEWPOINTS
MIX OUT. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT WHILE THEY WILL MIX OUT
SOME...WE COULD STILL SEE MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THEREFORE...WILL
SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IF
DEWPOINTS REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV
GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S.

BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY AFFECT THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG
THE SHORE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WHILE A MEAN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED ON MAINTAINING A WEAKNESS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IN THE GUIDANCE IS IF THIS WEAKNESS IS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION OR
FURTHER EAST. IF IT STAYS CLOSER TO US...THEN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS WOULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR
NOW...WILL JUST SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES THU AFTN WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST DRY. IF GUIDANCE BECOMES
CONSISTENT ON THIS UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER OUR REGION...THEN RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS/LOWS AT THIS TIME. 34/JFB

AVIATION (18Z-00Z ISSUANCES)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THU.
SCT CUMULUS WITH BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN 4K AND 6K FT THROUGH THIS
EVENING REFORMING AGAIN LATE WED MORNING. COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON ALSO WITH CLOUDS BASES LOWERING TO
AROUND 2K FT IN OR NEAR THE HEAVIER PRECIP. BKN TO OVC MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY WITH BASES RANGING FROM 10K TO 25K FT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KTS OF LESS
THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH
18Z WED...SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WED AFTERNOON
OR THROUGH 00Z THU. 32/EE

MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THURSDAY THEN BECOME REINFORCED FROM EAST TO WEST LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS...1 TO 2
FEET...EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING SEAS...3
TO 5 FEET OUT TO 20 NM AND 4 TO 6 FEET 20 TO 60 NM OUT...LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

FIRE WEATHER...FORECAST HUMIDITY...DISPERSIONS...AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BE GOOD OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY DUE TO DEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS. LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  87  63  88 /  10  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   69  85  68  86 /  10  20  10  10
DESTIN      70  81  67  85 /  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   61  88  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  60  87  59  88 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      61  87  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  89  62  89 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KBMX 160206
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
906 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THE LAST
FEW HOURS WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND. FEEL THESE TOO
WILL DISSIPATE SOON AND CURRENT LOW POP GRID FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE SAME GOES FOR CURRENT TEMP AND SKY TRENDS AND NO
MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE FROM
07-14Z WEDNESDAY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP AT KMGM FOR SHRA AND
4SM. CIGS OF SCT050 SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR 02Z AND A SCT200 DECK
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH CALM WINDS THERE
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME REDUCED VSBYS TO NEAR 4SM AND BR DEVELOPMENT
AT KANB...KMGM...AND KTOI. WINDS SHOULD STAY NORTHERLY AND LIGHT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY 16Z
WEDNESDAY BUT STAY UNDER 10KTS.

23/03



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     55  82  54  85  59 /  10   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    57  83  56  84  60 /  10   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  60  83  60  85  63 /  10   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  85  58  86  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
CALERA      61  84  60  85  63 /  10   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      63  84  63  85  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  62  85  62  86  64 /  10   0  10  10  10
TROY        58  85  58  86  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

23

000
FXUS64 KHUN 160148 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
848 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS AVOIDED NRN AL/SRN TN THIS EVENING
AND WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. CI/CS
CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AXIS DROPS SE AS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NPN/88D PROFILER NETWORKS. THIS SHOULD
FURTHER LIMIT CI/CS COVERAGE THRU THE NIGHT. STEADY COOLING HAS TAKEN
PLACE AFT SUNSET INTO THE M-U60S OUTSIDE URBAN AREAS...TO AROUND 70
IN THE CITIES AT THIS HOUR.  WE WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS AFT 06Z GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...LIGHT
FLOW...EXPECTED RADIATION/DRAINAGE COOLING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

KULA

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 543 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PD. PATCHY LIGHT BR MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT (AFT 09Z) WHICH MAY PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM.
OTRW...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND FEW-SCT CU ARE XPCTD TUE.

KULA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A GENERAL
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE. WELL AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS...CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AND ISOLATED SHRA ARE ALSO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREATER SOUTHEAST.

EXPECT ANY SHRA TO QUICKLY END THIS EVENING...AND WHILE LOW CLOUDS
WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTED A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG FORMATION...AND THE CIRRUS CLOUDS
SHOULD DO LITTLE TO INHIBIT THIS DEVELOPMENT. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IN
THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT WAS ADDED BY THE MID SHIFT.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WARMEST
IN THE URBAN LOCATIONS.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 80S. SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE DRY TOMORROW...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOUNDINGS ARE
FAIRLY CAPPED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE SO THAT CANNOT DISCOUNT A BRIEF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING...MAINLY EAST OF I65. MAY AGAIN SEE
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
DRIFTS JUST EAST OF THE AREA...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE
ATTM. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE WARM...IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S.

THE WEEKEND IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH OPTED TO
ADD IN A MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
RIVER BOTH DAYS AS THE CAP ERODES DURING PEAK HEATING AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY LEND TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE LEFT THIS PART OF THE FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED PENDING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.

JLL

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KBMX 160003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
703 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS EXTENDS FROM CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE TO
MOBILE ALABAMA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THIS TROF AXIS. THE ACTIVITY IS
FAIRLY WEAK AND UNORGANIZED AND EXPECT IT TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
MOSTLY GONE BY 7 PM. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND STALL OUT NEAR TROY ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

BY FRIDAY A WEDGE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST ALABAMA AS COOLER AND
MOIST AIR MOVES DOWN THE EASTERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE
TO A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
THE GFS/DGEX/ECMWF ALL SHOW SOME SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY DUE TO WEDGE FRONT... BUT IN DIFFERENT
AREAS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT SMALL
CHANCES MAY NEED TO ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY AN EASTERLY AND MORE STABLE FLOW IS WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NO
RAINFALL. THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD STILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL EAST OF ALABAMA...AND CONTINUED A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS STATES WILL HELP LIFT OUT UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST STATES
...STILL LEAVING ALABAMA IN A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. BY
TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO AREA FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE FROM
07-14Z WEDNESDAY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP AT KMGM FOR SHRA AND
4SM. CIGS OF SCT050 SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR 02Z AND A SCT200 DECK
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH CALM WINDS THERE
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME REDUCED VSBYS TO NEAR 4SM AND BR DEVELOPMENT
AT KANB...KMGM...AND KTOI. WINDS SHOULD STAY NORTHERLY AND LIGHT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY 16Z
WEDNESDAY BUT STAY UNDER 10KTS.

23/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     55  82  54  85  59 /  10   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    57  83  56  84  60 /  10   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  60  83  60  85  63 /  10   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  85  58  86  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
CALERA      61  84  60  85  63 /  10   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      63  84  63  85  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  62  85  62  86  64 /  10   0  10  10  10
TROY        58  85  58  86  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KMOB 152340 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
640 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.AVIATION...(16/00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE)...A VFR FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AND BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS. ISOLATED
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
THE WEAK BOUNDARY/SEABREEZE ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE OF IMPACT
ON ANY OF THE THREE LOCAL TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
TSRA MENTION WITHIN THE TAF ATTM...BUT STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING MVFR CIGS. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
OUT INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS DRIER SFC AIR COMBINED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS
RESULTED IN MLCAPES STAYING BELOW 1000 J/KG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE (MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
I-65) THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS
AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO REBOUND PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
AND BECOME LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW LOW DEWPOINTS
MIX OUT. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT WHILE THEY WILL MIX OUT
SOME...WE COULD STILL SEE MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THEREFORE...WILL
SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IF
DEWPOINTS REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV
GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S.

BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY AFFECT THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG
THE SHORE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WHILE A MEAN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED ON MAINTAINING A WEAKNESS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IN THE GUIDANCE IS IF THIS WEAKNESS IS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION OR
FURTHER EAST. IF IT STAYS CLOSER TO US...THEN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS WOULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR
NOW...WILL JUST SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES THU AFTN WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST DRY. IF GUIDANCE BECOMES
CONSISTENT ON THIS UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER OUR REGION...THEN RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS/LOWS AT THIS TIME. 34/JFB

AVIATION (18Z-00Z ISSUANCES)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THU.
SCT CUMULUS WITH BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN 4K AND 6K FT THROUGH THIS
EVENING REFORMING AGAIN LATE WED MORNING. COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON ALSO WITH CLOUDS BASES LOWERING TO
AROUND 2K FT IN OR NEAR THE HEAVIER PRECIP. BKN TO OVC MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY WITH BASES RANGING FROM 10K TO 25K FT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KTS OF LESS
THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH
18Z WED...SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WED AFTERNOON
OR THROUGH 00Z THU. 32/EE

MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THURSDAY THEN BECOME REINFORCED FROM EAST TO WEST LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS...1 TO 2
FEET...EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING SEAS...3
TO 5 FEET OUT TO 20 NM AND 4 TO 6 FEET 20 TO 60 NM OUT...LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

FIRE WEATHER...FORECAST HUMIDITY...DISPERSIONS...AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BE GOOD OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY DUE TO DEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS. LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  87  63  88 /  10  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   69  85  68  86 /  10  20  10  10
DESTIN      70  81  67  85 /  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   61  88  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  60  87  59  88 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      61  87  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  89  62  89 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KHUN 152243 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
543 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A GENERAL
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE. WELL AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS...CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AND ISOLATED SHRA ARE ALSO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREATER SOUTHEAST.

EXPECT ANY SHRA TO QUICKLY END THIS EVENING...AND WHILE LOW CLOUDS
WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTED A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG FORMATION...AND THE CIRRUS CLOUDS
SHOULD DO LITTLE TO INHIBIT THIS DEVELOPMENT. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IN
THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT WAS ADDED BY THE MID SHIFT.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WARMEST
IN THE URBAN LOCATIONS.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 80S. SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE DRY TOMORROW...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOUNDINGS ARE
FAIRLY CAPPED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE SO THAT CANNOT DISCOUNT A BRIEF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING...MAINLY EAST OF I65. MAY AGAIN SEE
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
DRIFTS JUST EAST OF THE AREA...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE
ATTM. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE WARM...IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S.

THE WEEKEND IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH OPTED TO
ADD IN A MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
RIVER BOTH DAYS AS THE CAP ERODES DURING PEAK HEATING AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY LEND TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE LEFT THIS PART OF THE FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED PENDING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.

JLL

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PD. PATCHY LIGHT BR MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT (AFT 09Z) WHICH MAY PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM.
OTRW...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND FEW-SCT CU ARE XPCTD TUE.

KULA

&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KMOB 152030
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
OUT INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS DRIER SFC AIR COMBINED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS
RESULTED IN MLCAPES STAYING BELOW 1000 J/KG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE (MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
I-65) THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS
AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO REBOUND PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
AND BECOME LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW LOW DEWPOINTS
MIX OUT. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT WHILE THEY WILL MIX OUT
SOME...WE COULD STILL SEE MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THEREFORE...WILL
SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IF
DEWPOINTS REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV
GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S.

BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY AFFECT THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG
THE SHORE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WHILE A MEAN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED ON MAINTAINING A WEAKNESS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IN THE GUIDANCE IS IF THIS WEAKNESS IS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION OR
FURTHER EAST. IF IT STAYS CLOSER TO US...THEN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS WOULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR
NOW...WILL JUST SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES THU AFTN WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST DRY. IF GUIDANCE BECOMES
CONSISTENT ON THIS UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER OUR REGION...THEN RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS/LOWS AT THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z-00Z ISSUANCES)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THU.
SCT CUMULUS WITH BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN 4K AND 6K FT THROUGH THIS
EVENING REFORMING AGAIN LATE WED MORNING. COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON ALSO WITH CLOUDS BASES LOWERING TO
AROUND 2K FT IN OR NEAR THE HEAVIER PRECIP. BKN TO OVC MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY WITH BASES RANGING FROM 10K TO 25K FT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KTS OF LESS
THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH
18Z WED...SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WED AFTERNOON
OR THROUGH 00Z THU. 32/EE


&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THURSDAY THEN BECOME REINFORCED FROM EAST TO WEST LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS...1 TO 2
FEET...EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING SEAS...3
TO 5 FEET OUT TO 20 NM AND 4 TO 6 FEET 20 TO 60 NM OUT...LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FORECAST HUMIDITY...DISPERSIONS...AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BE GOOD OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY DUE TO DEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS. LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  87  63  88 /  10  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   69  85  68  86 /  10  20  10  10
DESTIN      70  81  67  85 /  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   61  88  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  60  87  59  88 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      61  87  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  89  62  89 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KHUN 152014
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
314 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A GENERAL
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE. WELL AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS...CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AND ISOLATED SHRA ARE ALSO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREATER SOUTHEAST.

EXPECT ANY SHRA TO QUICKLY END THIS EVENING...AND WHILE LOW CLOUDS
WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTED A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG FORMATION...AND THE CIRRUS CLOUDS
SHOULD DO LITTLE TO INHIBIT THIS DEVELOPMENT. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IN
THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT WAS ADDED BY THE MID SHIFT.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WARMEST
IN THE URBAN LOCATIONS.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 80S. SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE DRY TOMORROW...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOUNDINGS ARE
FAIRLY CAPPED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE SO THAT CANNOT DISCOUNT A BRIEF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING...MAINLY EAST OF I65. MAY AGAIN SEE
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
DRIFTS JUST EAST OF THE AREA...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE
ATTM. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE WARM...IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S.

THE WEEKEND IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH OPTED TO
ADD IN A MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
RIVER BOTH DAYS AS THE CAP ERODES DURING PEAK HEATING AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY LEND TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE LEFT THIS PART OF THE FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED PENDING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.

JLL

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT BOTH
HSV/MSL THRU LATE TONIGHT...WITH LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTING THREAT FOR SHRA WILL REMAIN TO
THE S/E OF BOTH TERMINALS. SCT DECKS OF CU/AC -- BASED AT 4 KFT OR
HIGHER -- WILL PERSIST BENEATH BKN CI...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER DUSK...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FOGGY NIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH. HAVE INDICATED SKC WITH DROP TO MVFR VSBY
AROUND 16/07Z...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB-MVFR CIGS DURING
PERIOD FROM 16/10-14Z. VSBY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER
16/14Z AS FOG LIFTS INTO SCT HIGH-BASED CU. ASIDE FROM LGT/VRBL WINDS
OVERNIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN NNE THRU THE PERIOD...WITH
SPEEDS 4-8 KNOTS.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  85  58  86  60 /  10   0  10  10  10
SHOALS        57  86  58  86  59 /  10   0  10  10  10
VINEMONT      58  83  60  84  63 /  10   0  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  56  83  57  84  60 /  10   0  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   55  83  56  84  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    54  82  54  84  56 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KBMX 152006
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS EXTENDS FROM CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE TO
MOBILE ALABAMA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THIS TROF AXIS. THE ACTIVITY IS
FAIRLY WEAK AND UNORGANIZED AND EXPECT IT TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
MOSTLY GONE BY 7 PM. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND STALL OUT NEAR TROY ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

BY FRIDAY A WEDGE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST ALABAMA AS COOLER AND
MOIST AIR MOVES DOWN THE EASTERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE
TO A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
THE GFS/DGEX/ECMWF ALL SHOW SOME SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY DUE TO WEDGE FRONT... BUT IN DIFFERENT
AREAS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT SMALL
CHANCES MAY NEED TO ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY AN EASTERLY AND MORE STABLE FLOW IS WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NO
RAINFALL. THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD STILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL EAST OF ALABAMA...AND CONTINUED A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS STATES WILL HELP LIFT OUT UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST STATES
...STILL LEAVING ALABAMA IN A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. BY
TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO AREA FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA AS
A WEAK FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. INTRODUCED VCSH FOR KANB AND KBHM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AT SUNSET.
EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT INTRODUCED MVFR VIS FOR
KANB AND KTCL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AT KMGM AND KTOI WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME FOG. WILL SHOW VIS IN THE MVFR RANGE
AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THIS FORECAST AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT FOG POTENTIAL.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     55  82  54  85  59 /  10   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    57  83  56  84  60 /  10   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  60  83  60  85  63 /  10   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  85  58  86  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
CALERA      61  84  60  85  63 /  10   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      63  84  63  85  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  62  85  62  86  64 /  10   0  10  10  10
TROY        58  85  58  86  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KMOB 151815 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
104 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.AVIATION...[18Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WED. SCT
CUMULUS WITH BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN 4K AND 6K FT THROUGH THIS EVENING
REFORMING AGAIN LATE WED MORNING. COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALSO WITH CLOUDS BASES LOWERING TO
AROUND 2K FT IN OR NEAR THE HEAVIER PRECIP. BKN TO OVC MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY WITH BASES RANGING FROM 10K TO 25 K FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KTS OF LESS
THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KTS THROUGH 18Z WED. 32/EE

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ADVANCES GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  A WEAK AND DIFFUSE SURFACE TROF
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS THIS
MORNING FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.
0-1 KM MLCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUFFICIENT DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT AT MID LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
WILL HAVE SMALL POPS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR LINGERING
CONVECTION WITH SMALL POPS NEAR THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
ISOLATED LAND BREEZE CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES.  THE WET MICROBURST
RISK FOR TODAY IS LOW. /29

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...THE UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE EAST OF AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S NEAR
THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...WILL NEED TO EITHER HAVE VCTS OR A
TEMPO GROUP FOR PNS FOR ISOLATED LAND BREEZE CONVECTION THEN WILL
HAVE VCTS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION.  VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
EACH DAY THEN BECOMING OFFSHORE AT NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AND PROMOTES A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA WHICH BECOMES MODERATE TO
STRONG THIS WEEKEND.  SEAS REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON SATURDAY AS THE EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. /29


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      85  63  88  62 /  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   85  68  86  67 /  30  20  10  10
DESTIN      83  69  83  66 /  30  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   86  59  88  57 /  20  20  10  10
WAYNESBORO  84  59  87  56 /  20  10  05  10
CAMDEN      84  58  88  56 /  20  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   87  61  88  61 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KHUN 151739
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1048 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING...
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GRIDS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. DID
REMOVE MORNING FOG...AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR A THICKER LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK NOTED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MUCH LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS -- WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE ADJACENT CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING THIS ACTIVITY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL...AND WILL BE MAKING NO
CHANGES TO POP OR WEATHER GRIDS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT BOTH
HSV/MSL THRU LATE TONIGHT...WITH LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTING THREAT FOR SHRA WILL REMAIN TO
THE S/E OF BOTH TERMINALS. SCT DECKS OF CU/AC -- BASED AT 4 KFT OR
HIGHER -- WILL PERSIST BENEATH BKN CI...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER DUSK...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FOGGY NIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH. HAVE INDICATED SKC WITH DROP TO MVFR VSBY
AROUND 16/07Z...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB-MVFR CIGS DURING
PERIOD FROM 16/10-14Z. VSBY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER
16/14Z AS FOG LIFTS INTO SCT HIGH-BASED CU. ASIDE FROM LGT/VRBL WINDS
OVERNIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN NNE THRU THE PERIOD...WITH
SPEEDS 4-8 KNOTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KBMX 151729
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOG HAS LIFTED AND MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ALABAMA HAVE BECOME SCATTERED. SHOWERS HAVE FORMED EARLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA AS AN UPPER IMPULSE OVER NORTH ALABAMA
PUSHES EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
WHERE A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXISTS. EXPECT CONVECTION IN MOST AREAS
TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST OF I-65...
BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS DUE TO PROXIMITY
OF UPPER IMPULSE. A FEW LOCALLY STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500
J/KG.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA AS
A WEAK FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. INTRODUCED VCSH FOR KANB AND KBHM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AT SUNSET.
EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT INTRODUCED MVFR VIS FOR
KANB AND KTCL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AT KMGM AND KTOI WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME FOG. WILL SHOW VIS IN THE MVFR RANGE
AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THIS FORECAST AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT FOG POTENTIAL.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  82  56  85  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    57  82  55  85  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  59  82  58  86  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  59  85  58  88  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
CALERA      60  82  59  86  63 /  10   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      63  84  63  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  62  85  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        60  85  61  88  63 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/87

000
FXUS64 KBMX 151612
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...TODAYS WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOG HAS LIFTED AND MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ALABAMA HAVE BECOME SCATTERED. SHOWERS HAVE FORMED EARLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA AS AN UPPER IMPULSE OVER NORTH ALABAMA
PUSHES EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
WHERE A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXISTS. EXPECT CONVECTION IN MOST AREAS
TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST OF I-65...
BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS DUE TO PROXIMITY
OF UPPER IMPULSE. A FEW LOCALLY STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500
J/KG.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/

UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ALONG
THE ALABAMA GEORGIA STATE LINE....AND FAR SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WAS JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE IN THE
MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SEVERAL LAYERS OF SCATTERED CLOUDS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE
TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
THERE IS SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION WITH DRIER DEW POINTS...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE APPROACHING THE CROSSOVER TEMP. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND LOCALIZED SPOTS
MAY EXPERIENCE SOME BRIEF DENSE FOG. SINCE WE ARE CLOSE TO THAT
CROSSOVER TEMP AND DRY ADVECTION IS NOT STRONG...WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
FOR WIDER COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. FOG MAY DEVELOP THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS
BUT SHOULD START EXHIBITING LESS AND LESS COVERAGE WITH SOME SUN
DURING THE DAY...AND SLOWLY DRYING ATMOSPHERE.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS STILL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL HAS THIS
FEATURE AND ITS MEAN MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
00Z MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIP WATER VALUES STAY JUST OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS EACH DAY. MEAN
MOISTURE VALUES GENERALLY 50-60 PERCENT OR LESS. SEVERAL WEAKER
IMPULSES MOVE OVERHEAD...AND EVEN BEING BEHIND THE FRONT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM MAY DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SLIM AND WILL KEEP 10-25 POP TODAY AND
MAY MENTION A 10 POP FARTHER WEST TODAY. ALL IN ALL...RAIN CHANCES
DO NOT LOOK TOO PROMISING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM AND THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
AND HAVE NOT REAL EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP EAST OF THE AREA AND THIS
WILL BRING A SUPPLY OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
HANGS ON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE INVERTED TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE
DEVELOPING EAST.

OVERALL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ITS REASONING REMAIN
VERY SMALL. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT BELIEVE THE EASTERLY FLOW BY THE
WEEKEND SHOULD HAVE A GREAT INFLUENCE ON HIGH TEMPS. BUT IF THIS
FLOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY MORE CLOUD COVER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...
IT WILL. THE ONLY FORESEEABLE CHANGE MAY BE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL
POPS HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED.

75

AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOG FORMATION HAS OCCURRED VERY QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND KEET AND KBHM HAVE BEEN AFFECTED THE MOST...WITH VLIFR
VISIBILITIES BEING OBSERVED. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
ONLY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH 13Z. AFTER
THE FOG MIXES OUT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN CALM DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...AND WILL
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN THE
TAF DURING LATER ISSUANCES TODAY.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  56  82  56  85 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    80  57  82  55  85 /  20  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  81  59  82  58  86 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  84  59  85  58  88 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      81  60  82  59  86 /  20  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      83  63  84  63  87 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  84  62  85  61  88 /  20  10  10  10  10
TROY        84  60  85  61  88 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KHUN 151548
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1048 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING...
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GRIDS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. DID
REMOVE MORNING FOG...AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR A THICKER LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK NOTED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MUCH LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS -- WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE ADJACENT CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING THIS ACTIVITY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL...AND WILL BE MAKING NO
CHANGES TO POP OR WEATHER GRIDS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
FOR 12Z TAFS...PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EAST OF KHSV WILL DISSIPATE BY THE
MID MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS
EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NE ALABAMA AND NEARBY CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT VCTS FOR KMSL...EVEN
THOUGH SHOWER CHANCES ARE VERY SLIM WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. MORE
PATCHY PREDAWN FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
A FAIRLY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A
CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OVER THE SIERRAS. THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES ARE REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF CANADA WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS WILL BECOME IMPORTANT MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON, AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOL ALONG AREAS MAINLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 65. THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS, HAVE LEFT IN THE FORECAST AS ISOLATED.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITHIN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW
OUTPUT SHOW THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY HAVE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS (INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS). THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER NE AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, AND HAVE INCLUDED THROUGH 03Z. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
LIKELY. A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WILL THEN YIELD MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE WEEKEND.

ONCE THIS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER
THREAT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS, CLEARING SKY, AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER 06Z THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.

NW FLOW SHOULD THEN PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
FEW DAYS WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT IN ECMWF/NAM
MODEL IMAGERY. THOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW IS KNOWN TO OCCUR, AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND EFFECTS
OF THESE SHORTWAVES, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO MOISTURE RETURN.
THUS, FOR NOW, HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT (SCHC OF SHOWERS INSTEAD
FOR THU EVE) AND HAVE REMOVED SCHC THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY.
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS MAY EVOLVE AND YIELD BETTER CERTAINTY ON
TIMING WITH FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, A BUILDING RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WARM.
THEN, THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE ECWMF SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A BROAD OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SENDING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE TN VALLEY BY DAY 7/8. FOR
NOW, HAVE INCLUDED SCHC OF THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FROM THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KBMX 151144 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
643 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ALONG
THE ALABAMA GEORGIA STATE LINE....AND FAR SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WAS JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE IN THE
MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SEVERAL LAYERS OF SCATTERED CLOUDS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE
TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
THERE IS SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION WITH DRIER DEW POINTS...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE APPROACHING THE CROSSOVER TEMP. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND LOCALIZED SPOTS
MAY EXPERIENCE SOME BRIEF DENSE FOG. SINCE WE ARE CLOSE TO THAT
CROSSOVER TEMP AND DRY ADVECTION IS NOT STRONG...WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
FOR WIDER COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. FOG MAY DEVELOP THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS
BUT SHOULD START EXHIBITING LESS AND LESS COVERAGE WITH SOME SUN
DURING THE DAY...AND SLOWLY DRYING ATMOSPHERE.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS STILL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL HAS THIS
FEATURE AND ITS MEAN MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
00Z MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIP WATER VALUES STAY JUST OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS EACH DAY. MEAN
MOISTURE VALUES GENERALLY 50-60 PERCENT OR LESS. SEVERAL WEAKER
IMPULSES MOVE OVERHEAD...AND EVEN BEING BEHIND THE FRONT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM MAY DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SLIM AND WILL KEEP 10-25 POP TODAY AND
MAY MENTION A 10 POP FARTHER WEST TODAY. ALL IN ALL...RAIN CHANCES
DO NOT LOOK TOO PROMISING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM AND THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
AND HAVE NOT REAL EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP EAST OF THE AREA AND THIS
WILL BRING A SUPPLY OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
HANGS ON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE INVERTED TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE
DEVELOPING EAST.

OVERALL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ITS REASONING REMAIN
VERY SMALL. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT BELIEVE THE EASTERLY FLOW BY THE
WEEKEND SHOULD HAVE A GREAT INFLUENCE ON HIGH TEMPS. BUT IF THIS
FLOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY MORE CLOUD COVER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...
IT WILL. THE ONLY FORESEEABLE CHANGE MAY BE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL
POPS HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOG FORMATION HAS OCCURRED VERY QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND KEET AND KBHM HAVE BEEN AFFECTED THE MOST...WITH VLIFR
VISIBILITIES BEING OBSERVED. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
ONLY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH 13Z. AFTER
THE FOG MIXES OUT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN CALM DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...AND WILL
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN THE
TAF DURING LATER ISSUANCES TODAY.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  56  82  56  85 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    80  57  82  55  85 /  20  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  81  59  82  58  86 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  84  59  85  58  88 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      81  60  82  59  86 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      83  63  84  63  87 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  84  62  85  61  88 /  20  10  10  10  10
TROY        84  60  85  61  88 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/56

000
FXUS64 KBMX 151144
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
643 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012]

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ALONG
THE ALABAMA GEORGIA STATE LINE....AND FAR SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WAS JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE IN THE
MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SEVERAL LAYERS OF SCATTERED CLOUDS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE
TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
THERE IS SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION WITH DRIER DEW POINTS...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE APPROACHING THE CROSSOVER TEMP. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND LOCALIZED SPOTS
MAY EXPERIENCE SOME BRIEF DENSE FOG. SINCE WE ARE CLOSE TO THAT
CROSSOVER TEMP AND DRY ADVECTION IS NOT STRONG...WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
FOR WIDER COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. FOG MAY DEVELOP THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS
BUT SHOULD START EXHIBITING LESS AND LESS COVERAGE WITH SOME SUN
DURING THE DAY...AND SLOWLY DRYING ATMOSPHERE.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS STILL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL HAS THIS
FEATURE AND ITS MEAN MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
00Z MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIP WATER VALUES STAY JUST OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS EACH DAY. MEAN
MOISTURE VALUES GENERALLY 50-60 PERCENT OR LESS. SEVERAL WEAKER
IMPULSES MOVE OVERHEAD...AND EVEN BEING BEHIND THE FRONT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM MAY DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SLIM AND WILL KEEP 10-25 POP TODAY AND
MAY MENTION A 10 POP FARTHER WEST TODAY. ALL IN ALL...RAIN CHANCES
DO NOT LOOK TOO PROMISING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM AND THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
AND HAVE NOT REAL EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP EAST OF THE AREA AND THIS
WILL BRING A SUPPLY OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
HANGS ON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE INVERTED TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE
DEVELOPING EAST.

OVERALL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ITS REASONING REMAIN
VERY SMALL. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT BELIEVE THE EASTERLY FLOW BY THE
WEEKEND SHOULD HAVE A GREAT INFLUENCE ON HIGH TEMPS. BUT IF THIS
FLOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY MORE CLOUD COVER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...
IT WILL. THE ONLY FORESEEABLE CHANGE MAY BE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL
POPS HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOG FORMATION HAS OCCURRED VERY QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND KEET AND KBHM HAVE BEEN AFFECTED THE MOST...WITH VLIFR
VISIBILITIES BEING OBSERVED. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
ONLY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH 13Z. AFTER
THE FOG MIXES OUT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN CALM DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...AND WILL
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN THE
TAF DURING LATER ISSUANCES TODAY.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  56  82  56  85 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    80  57  82  55  85 /  20  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  81  59  82  58  86 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  84  59  85  58  88 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      81  60  82  59  86 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      83  63  84  63  87 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  84  62  85  61  88 /  20  10  10  10  10
TROY        84  60  85  61  88 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/56

000
FXUS64 KHUN 151135 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
A FAIRLY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A
CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OVER THE SIERRAS. THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES ARE REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF CANADA WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS WILL BECOME IMPORTANT MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON, AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOL ALONG AREAS MAINLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 65. THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS, HAVE LEFT IN THE FORECAST AS ISOLATED.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITHIN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW
OUTPUT SHOW THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY HAVE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS (INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS). THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER NE AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, AND HAVE INCLUDED THROUGH 03Z. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
LIKELY. A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WILL THEN YIELD MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE WEEKEND.

ONCE THIS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER
THREAT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS, CLEARING SKY, AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER 06Z THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.

NW FLOW SHOULD THEN PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
FEW DAYS WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT IN ECMWF/NAM
MODEL IMAGERY. THOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW IS KNOWN TO OCCUR, AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND EFFECTS
OF THESE SHORTWAVES, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO MOISTURE RETURN.
THUS, FOR NOW, HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT (SCHC OF SHOWERS INSTEAD
FOR THU EVE) AND HAVE REMOVED SCHC THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY.
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS MAY EVOLVE AND YIELD BETTER CERTAINTY ON
TIMING WITH FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, A BUILDING RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WARM.
THEN, THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE ECWMF SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A BROAD OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SENDING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE TN VALLEY BY DAY 7/8. FOR
NOW, HAVE INCLUDED SCHC OF THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FROM THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EAST OF KHSV WILL DISSIPATE BY THE MID
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS
EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NE ALABAMA AND NEARBY CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT VCTS FOR KMSL...EVEN
THOUGH SHOWER CHANCES ARE VERY SLIM WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. MORE
PATCHY PREDAWN FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KMOB 150918
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ADVANCES GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  A WEAK AND DIFFUSE SURFACE TROF
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS THIS
MORNING FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.
0-1 KM MLCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUFFICIENT DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT AT MID LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
WILL HAVE SMALL POPS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR LINGERING
CONVECTION WITH SMALL POPS NEAR THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
ISOLATED LAND BREEZE CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES.  THE WET MICROBURST
RISK FOR TODAY IS LOW. /29

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...THE UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE EAST OF AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S NEAR
THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...WILL NEED TO EITHER HAVE VCTS OR A
TEMPO GROUP FOR PNS FOR ISOLATED LAND BREEZE CONVECTION THEN WILL
HAVE VCTS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION.  VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
EACH DAY THEN BECOMING OFFSHORE AT NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AND PROMOTES A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA WHICH BECOMES MODERATE TO
STRONG THIS WEEKEND.  SEAS REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON SATURDAY AS THE EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. /29


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      85  63  88  62 /  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   85  68  86  67 /  30  20  10  10
DESTIN      83  69  83  66 /  30  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   86  59  88  57 /  20  20  10  10
WAYNESBORO  84  59  87  56 /  20  10  05  10
CAMDEN      84  58  88  56 /  20  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   87  61  88  61 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KBMX 150900
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ALONG
THE ALABAMA GEORGIA STATE LINE....AND FAR SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WAS JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE IN THE
MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SEVERAL LAYERS OF SCATTERED CLOUDS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE
TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
THERE IS SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION WITH DRIER DEW POINTS...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE APPROACHING THE CROSSOVER TEMP. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND LOCALIZED SPOTS
MAY EXPERIENCE SOME BRIEF DENSE FOG. SINCE WE ARE CLOSE TO THAT
CROSSOVER TEMP AND DRY ADVECTION IS NOT STRONG...WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
FOR WIDER COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. FOG MAY DEVELOP THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS
BUT SHOULD START EXHIBITING LESS AND LESS COVERAGE WITH SOME SUN
DURING THE DAY...AND SLOWLY DRYING ATMOSPHERE.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS STILL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL HAS THIS
FEATURE AND ITS MEAN MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
00Z MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIP WATER VALUES STAY JUST OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS EACH DAY. MEAN
MOISTURE VALUES GENERALLY 50-60 PERCENT OR LESS. SEVERAL WEAKER
IMPULSES MOVE OVERHEAD...AND EVEN BEING BEHIND THE FRONT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM MAY DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SLIM AND WILL KEEP 10-25 POP TODAY AND
MAY MENTION A 10 POP FARTHER WEST TODAY. ALL IN ALL...RAIN CHANCES
DO NOT LOOK TOO PROMISING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM AND THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
AND HAVE NOT REAL EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP EAST OF THE AREA AND THIS
WILL BRING A SUPPLY OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
HANGS ON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE INVERTED TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE
DEVELOPING EAST.

OVERALL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ITS REASONING REMAIN
VERY SMALL. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT BELIEVE THE EASTERLY FLOW BY THE
WEEKEND SHOULD NOT HAVE A GREAT INFLUENCE ON HIGH TEMPS. BUT IF THIS
FLOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY MORE CLOUD COVER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...
IT WILL. THE ONLY FORESEEABLE CHANGE MAY BE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL
POPS HERE AN THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT FOG (WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 5SM)...
BUT NOTHING TOO BAD AS OF 0500 UTC.  I STILL THINK THAT ANB AND TOI
STAND TO GET THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE FOG OVERNIGHT.
UPDATED COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST...SO I HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE
IN FORECASTING THE FOG TO BE AT ITS WORST THERE.

VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE RELATIVELY QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING...
ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR ANY LOW CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO
THE VFR LEVEL. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF CLEAR
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS...BUT I THINK CUMULUS LEVEL (4000-5000 FEET)
CLOUDINESS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO FILL BACK IN IN THE AFTERNOON.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  56  82  56  85 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    80  57  82  55  85 /  20  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  81  59  82  58  86 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  84  59  85  58  88 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      81  60  82  59  86 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      83  63  84  63  87 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  84  62  85  61  88 /  20  10  10  10  10
TROY        84  60  85  61  88 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/75/61

000
FXUS64 KHUN 150802
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
302 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A
CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OVER THE SIERRAS. THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES ARE REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF CANADA WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS WILL BECOME IMPORTANT MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON, AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOL ALONG AREAS MAINLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 65. THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS, HAVE LEFT IN THE FORECAST AS ISOLATED.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITHIN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW
OUTPUT SHOW THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY HAVE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS (INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS). THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER NE AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, AND HAVE INCLUDED THROUGH 03Z. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
LIKELY. A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WILL THEN YIELD MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE WEEKEND.

ONCE THIS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER
THREAT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS, CLEARING SKY, AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER 06Z THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.

NW FLOW SHOULD THEN PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
FEW DAYS WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT IN ECMWF/NAM
MODEL IMAGERY. THOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW IS KNOWN TO OCCUR, AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND EFFECTS
OF THESE SHORTWAVES, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO MOISTURE RETURN.
THUS, FOR NOW, HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT (SCHC OF SHOWERS INSTEAD
FOR THU EVE) AND HAVE REMOVED SCHC THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY.
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS MAY EVOLVE AND YIELD BETTER CERTAINTY ON
TIMING WITH FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, A BUILDING RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WARM.
THEN, THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE ECWMF SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A BROAD OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SENDING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE TN VALLEY BY DAY 7/8. FOR
NOW, HAVE INCLUDED SCHC OF THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FROM THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1217 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NRN AL OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE XPCTD TO DVLP DUE TO VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT FLOW. THE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
INTO AN MVFR LAYER BY ~14Z...AND TO A VFR LYR BY ~17Z. ANOTHER
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EWD THRU THE REGION TUE AFTN AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TS TUE AFTN...SOME WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS/CB MENTION AT
BOTH KHSV/KMSL FROM 18Z-02Z.

KULA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    81  60  84  57  84 /  20  10  10  10  20
SHOALS        81  58  85  58  85 /  10  10  10  10  20
VINEMONT      78  58  82  60  83 /  20  10  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  79  56  82  57  83 /  20  10  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   79  56  82  57  84 /  20  20  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    78  54  82  55  85 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KHUN 150517 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1217 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 907 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
ISOLD SHRA IN MORGAN AND SRN MADISON COUNTIES ARE ALL THAT REMAIN THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIE OFF. SB-INSTABILITY AT KOHX
WAS A FORMIDABLE ~1475 J/KG...BUT THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD REDVLPMT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG POTENTIAL IS THE OTHER MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT.  DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE L-M60S THIS EVENING...AND LATEST RUC FIELDS SUGGEST
THAT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...LIGHT FLOW AND AREAS OF CLEARING IN PLACE ALL
FAV0R FG DVLPMT OVERNIGHT. T/TD SPREADS HAVE ALREADY NARROWED TO 1-2
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS...AND SOME DOWN TO ZERO. THUS...HAVE MOVED
UP THE TIMING OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO 06Z. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CONSIDERING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

KULA

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NRN AL OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE XPCTD TO DVLP DUE TO VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT FLOW. THE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
INTO AN MVFR LAYER BY ~14Z...AND TO A VFR LYR BY ~17Z. ANOTHER
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EWD THRU THE REGION TUE AFTN AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TS TUE AFTN...SOME WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS/CB MENTION AT
BOTH KHSV/KMSL FROM 18Z-02Z.

KULA

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KBMX 150512 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALABAMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE JUST ABOUT GONE...EXCEPT NEAR THE DOTHAN
AREA AND THOSE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND MISS OUR CENTRAL
ALABAMA COUNTIES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
AND THUS HAVE REMOVE POPS FROM GRIDS/ZONES. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS DOWN
WITH THE TEMPERATURES AS WE HAVE BEEN COOLING NICELY. WITH SOME
GAPS IN THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ON/OFF BEFORE POSSIBLY LOW CIGS/
VSBYS RETURN LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD NOT HAVE PROBLEMS COOLING A
LITTLE MORE. CONTINUING TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST FOR LATE
NIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MNK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT FOG (WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 5SM)...
BUT NOTHING TOO BAD AS OF 0500 UTC.  I STILL THINK THAT ANB AND TOI
STAND TO GET THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE FOG OVERNIGHT.
UPDATED COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST...SO I HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE
IN FORECASTING THE FOG TO BE AT ITS WORST THERE.

VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE RELATIVELY QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING...
ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR ANY LOW CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO
THE VFR LEVEL. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF CLEAR
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS...BUT I THINK CUMULUS LEVEL (4000-5000 FEET)
CLOUDINESS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO FILL BACK IN IN THE AFTERNOON.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KBMX 150502 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CDT YUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALABAMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE JUST ABOUT GONE...EXCEPT NEAR THE DOTHAN
AREA AND THOSE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND MISS OUR CENTRAL
ALABAMA COUNTIES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
AND THUS HAVE REMOVE POPS FROM GRIDS/ZONES. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS DOWN
WITH THE TEMPERATURES AS WE HAVE BEEN COOLING NICELY. WITH SOME
GAPS IN THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ON/OFF BEFORE POSSIBLY LOW CIGS/
VSBYS RETURN LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD NOT HAVE PROBLEMS COOLING A
LITTLE MORE. CONTINUING TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST FOR LATE
NIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MNK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT FOG (WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 5SM)...
BUT NOTHING TOO BAD AS OF 0500 UTC.  I STILL THINK THAT ANB AND TOI
STAND TO GET THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE FOG OVERNIGHT.
UPDATED COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST...SO I HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE
IN FORECASTING THE FOG TO BE AT ITS WORST THERE.

VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE RELATIVELY QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING...
ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR ANY LOW CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO
THE VFR LEVEL. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF CLEAR
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS...BUT I THINK CUMULUS LEVEL (4000-5000 FEET)
CLOUDINESS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO FILL BACK IN IN THE AFTERNOON.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KMOB 150446 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.AVIATION [06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...PATCHY LATE NIGHT MIST WITH
VISIBILITY POSSIBLY TO LOW END MVFR LEVELS AFTER 15.09Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY VFR CIGS THRU 15.18Z...THEN AS SEABREEZE
ADVANCES NORTHWARD THRU THE AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE TOWERING CU WITH
BASES AT AROUND 5 KFT. A FEW CB AND ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE AT MOB/BFM
BY AND AFTER 21Z. /10

/ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION / 334 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012 /

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A QUIET NIGHT
EXPECTED WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN FAR INTERIOR SE MS/SW AL. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DEWPOINTS REBOUNDING
AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS
TO 1.3-1.4 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THEREFORE...
WILL MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT LOSING DEFINITION. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROP
BACK TO THE 1-1.15 RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT
FOR WED AFTN.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
34/JFB

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
FCST AREA BY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...THEN
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INTERIOR
AND MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BREAK DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN AROUND 2 FEET OUT
TO 60 NM SUBSIDING TO AROUND 1 FOOT OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE
TO A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT. BAY AND INLAND WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  85  62  85 /  05  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   65  84  66  85 /  10  20  20  10
DESTIN      69  82  72  82 /  10  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   60  86  60  87 /  10  20  10  10
WAYNESBORO  59  84  59  85 /  05  10  10  05
CAMDEN      59  83  59  85 /  05  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  87  60  88 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KBMX 150304 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1004 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALABAMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE JUST ABOUT GONE...EXCEPT NEAR THE DOTHAN
AREA AND THOSE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND MISS OUR CENTRAL
ALABAMA COUNTIES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
AND THUS HAVE REMOVE POPS FROM GRIDS/ZONES. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS DOWN
WITH THE TEMPERATURES AS WE HAVE BEEN COOLING NICELY. WITH SOME
GAPS IN THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ON/OFF BEFORE POSSIBLY LOW CIGS/
VSBYS RETURN LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD NOT HAVE PROBLEMS COOLING A
LITTLE MORE. CONTINUING TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST FOR LATE
NIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MNK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...CALM CONDITIONS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO A LESS CONFIDENT FORECAST AFTER ABOUT 0500 UTC. AT THAT TIME...
FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO BECOME AN ISSUE. CROSSOVER
TEMPS AND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SUGGEST THAT THE FOG COULD
BECOME QUITE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY EAST (ANB) AND SOUTH (TOI). SO
THOSE ARE THE TWO LOCATIONS THAT I INCLUDED THE GREATEST REDUCTIONS
TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM OVERNIGHT
SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY RAPIDLY AND BURN OFF BY 1500 UTC TUESDAY...
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TROF HAS PUSHED FARTHER EASTWARD THAN EXPECTED...AND THIS HAS
KEPT THE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT
TERM IS CLOUD COVER AND FOG FOR TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY
ERODING...BUT A SOLID DECK STILL EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND
EAST ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REFORM IN AREAS THAT CLEAR..SO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL...BUT STILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST OF I-65 WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

A SURFACE TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
THOUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH ALABAMA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...AND ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...
AND WILL CARRY LOW END POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. THE UPPER TROF
AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BRING
AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DUE TO RISING
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER TROF...AND THIS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. GFS MOS
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE HIGH END OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AND
WENT CLOSER TO AVERAGE OF MOS ENSEMBLE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE GFS TYPICALLY DOES...IT
SHOWS MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG WEDGE FRONT THAN OTHER
MODELS...AND WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A FRONT WILL INDEED REACH
ALABAMA. OVERALL...A NICE WEEKEND ON TAP. THE EASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WEDGE FRONT WILL WEAKEN BY MONDAY AS AS SHORT WAVE
TROF APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH NORTH ALABAMA
UNTIL TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  80  56  82  54 /  10  20  10  10   0
ANNISTON    54  80  57  82  55 /  10  20  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  58  80  59  83  59 /  10  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  59  82  59  85  58 /  10  10  10  10   0
CALERA      58  81  59  83  58 /  10  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      60  82  63  83  61 /  10  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  60  83  62  85  60 /  10  20  10  10  10
TROY        57  83  59  84  57 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/61/58

000
FXUS64 KHUN 150207 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
907 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...
TO RAISE MIN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS UP A FEW DEGREES AND MOVE UP TIMING
OF PATCHY FOG TO 06Z.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SHRA IN MORGAN AND SRN MADISON COUNTIES ARE ALL THAT REMAIN THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIE OFF. SB-INSTABILITY AT KOHX
WAS A FORMIDABLE ~1475 J/KG...BUT THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD REDVLPMT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG POTENTIAL IS THE OTHER MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT.  DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE L-M60S THIS EVENING...AND LATEST RUC FIELDS SUGGEST
THAT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...LIGHT FLOW AND AREAS OF CLEARING IN PLACE ALL
FAV0R FG DVLPMT OVERNIGHT. T/TD SPREADS HAVE ALREADY NARROWED TO 1-2
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS...AND SOME DOWN TO ZERO. THUS...HAVE MOVED
UP THE TIMING OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO 06Z. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CONSIDERING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

KULA

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LEADING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT BOTH KHSV AND
KMSL...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MORE DENSE FOG (~AIRPORT
MINIMUMS) WERE OBSERVED BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY (MAINLY EAST OF KHSV)...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE FORMALLY AT
KHSV DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF ACTIVITY DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINAL.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON TO FORECAST CLOUD
COVER AND POPS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM /SHORTWAVE/ THAT BROUGHT THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND HAS
PUSHED UP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINS SOUTH OF A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS PUSHED MORE EAST THAN SOUTH
OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS AND NOW EXTENDS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO POOL. SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG
WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE ONLY
THREAT IN STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT CONCERNING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GFS
KEEPING US SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS. NOT SURE IF IT IS OVERDOING
THIS A BIT. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...THINK THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER WILL FALL APART AND WE MIGHT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OR
PARTIAL CLEARING WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...AS NAM12 HINTS. LEANING
TOWARD THE NAM12 SOLUTION IN THE EVENING...BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES FURTHER
SOUTH INTO TN OR NORTHERN AL.

THINK THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BEFORE THEN THOUGH WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND
9000 FEET AND MICROBURST POTENTIAL AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. GFS HINTS AT AN
ISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OR
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BUT OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE CONFLICTS WITH THAT.

NEWEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES BACK INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD EXPECT HIGHS TO
RECOVER INTO THE NORMAL RANGE (FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES) IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND A BIT COOLER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL DIP AGAIN
POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARMING TREND...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM TEXAS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY OVER THE WEEKEND.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KBMX 142341
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
640 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TROF HAS PUSHED FARTHER EASTWARD THAN EXPECTED...AND THIS HAS
KEPT THE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT
TERM IS CLOUD COVER AND FOG FOR TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY
ERODING...BUT A SOLID DECK STILL EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND
EAST ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REFORM IN AREAS THAT CLEAR..SO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL...BUT STILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST OF I-65 WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

A SURFACE TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
THOUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH ALABAMA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...AND ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...
AND WILL CARRY LOW END POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. THE UPPER TROF
AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BRING
AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DUE TO RISING
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER TROF...AND THIS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. GFS MOS
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE HIGH END OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AND
WENT CLOSER TO AVERAGE OF MOS ENSEMBLE.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE GFS TYPICALLY DOES...IT
SHOWS MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG WEDGE FRONT THAN OTHER
MODELS...AND WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A FRONT WILL INDEED REACH
ALABAMA. OVERALL...A NICE WEEKEND ON TAP. THE EASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WEDGE FRONT WILL WEAKEN BY MONDAY AS AS SHORT WAVE
TROF APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH NORTH ALABAMA
UNTIL TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...CALM CONDITIONS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO A LESS CONFIDENT FORECAST AFTER ABOUT 0500 UTC. AT THAT TIME...
FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO BECOME AN ISSUE. CROSSOVER
TEMPS AND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SUGGEST THAT THE FOG COULD
BECOME QUITE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY EAST (ANB) AND SOUTH (TOI). SO
THOSE ARE THE TWO LOCATIONS THAT I INCLUDED THE GREATEST REDUCTIONS
TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM OVERNIGHT
SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY RAPIDLY AND BURN OFF BY 1500 UTC TUESDAY...
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KHUN 142337 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON TO FORECAST CLOUD
COVER AND POPS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM /SHORTWAVE/ THAT BROUGHT THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND HAS
PUSHED UP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINS SOUTH OF A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS PUSHED MORE EAST THAN SOUTH
OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS AND NOW EXTENDS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO POOL. SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG
WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE ONLY
THREAT IN STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT CONCERNING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GFS
KEEPING US SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS. NOT SURE IF IT IS OVERDOING
THIS A BIT. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...THINK THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER WILL FALL APART AND WE MIGHT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OR
PARTIAL CLEARING WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...AS NAM12 HINTS. LEANING
TOWARD THE NAM12 SOLUTION IN THE EVENING...BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES FURTHER
SOUTH INTO TN OR NORTHERN AL.

THINK THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BEFORE THEN THOUGH WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND
9000 FEET AND MICROBURST POTENTIAL AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. GFS HINTS AT AN
ISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OR
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BUT OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE CONFLICTS WITH THAT.

NEWEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES BACK INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD EXPECT HIGHS TO
RECOVER INTO THE NORMAL RANGE (FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES) IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND A BIT COOLER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL DIP AGAIN
POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARMING TREND...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM TEXAS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY OVER THE WEEKEND.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LEADING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT BOTH KHSV AND
KMSL...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MORE DENSE FOG (~AIRPORT
MINIMUMS) WERE OBSERVED BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY (MAINLY EAST OF KHSV)...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE FORMALLY AT
KHSV DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF ACTIVITY DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINAL.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KMOB 142322 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
615 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.AVIATION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HRS.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT MIST WITH VISIBILITY POSSIBLY TO LOW END MVFR
LEVELS AFTER 15.09Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. /10

/ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION / 334 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012 /

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE WEAK FRONT/SFC
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AND COASTAL ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF DRYING AND WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS
SEEN ON THE 12Z LIX SOUNDING HAS RESULTED IN THE MIXING OUT OF
DEWPOINTS AND MEAGER CAPE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...HENCE NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE VALUES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHERE MLCAPES
HAVE CLIMBED TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED STORM THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT
EXPECTED WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN FAR INTERIOR SE MS/SW AL. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DEWPOINTS REBOUNDING
AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS
TO 1.3-1.4 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THEREFORE...
WILL MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT LOSING DEFINITION. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROP
BACK TO THE 1-1.15 RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT
FOR WED AFTN.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
34/JFB

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
FCST AREA BY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...THEN
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INTERIOR
AND MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BREAK DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN AROUND 2 FEET OUT
TO 60 NM SUBSIDING TO AROUND 1 FOOT OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE
TO A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT. BAY AND INLAND WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  85  62  85 /  05  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   65  84  66  85 /  10  20  20  10
DESTIN      69  82  72  82 /  10  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   60  86  60  87 /  10  20  10  10
WAYNESBORO  59  84  59  85 /  05  10  10  05
CAMDEN      59  83  59  85 /  05  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  87  60  88 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KMOB 142034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE WEAK FRONT/SFC
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AND COASTAL ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF DRYING AND WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS
SEEN ON THE 12Z LIX SOUNDING HAS RESULTED IN THE MIXING OUT OF
DEWPOINTS AND MEAGER CAPE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...HENCE NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE VALUES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHERE MLCAPES
HAVE CLIMBED TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED STORM THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT
EXPECTED WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN FAR INTERIOR SE MS/SW AL. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DEWPOINTS REBOUNDING
AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS
TO 1.3-1.4 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THEREFORE...
WILL MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT LOSING DEFINITION. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROP
BACK TO THE 1-1.15 RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT
FOR WED AFTN.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
34/JFB

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
FCST AREA BY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...THEN
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INTERIOR
AND MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION [18Z-00Z ISSUANCES]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z WED.
FEW TO SCT CUMULUS AT AROUND 3.5K FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY BKN CIRRUS AT AROUND 25K FT FORMING OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY HOURS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2K FT IN AND AROUND THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING MOSTLY
NORTH AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY 18Z TUES CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z WED. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BREAK DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN AROUND 2 FEET OUT
TO 60 NM SUBSIDING TO AROUND 1 FOOT OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE
TO A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT. BAY AND INLAND WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  85  62  85 /  05  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   65  84  66  85 /  10  20  20  10
DESTIN      69  82  72  82 /  10  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   60  86  60  87 /  10  20  10  10
WAYNESBORO  59  84  59  85 /  05  10  10  05
CAMDEN      59  83  59  85 /  05  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  87  60  88 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KHUN 142016
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
316 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON TO FORECAST CLOUD
COVER AND POPS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM /SHORTWAVE/ THAT BROUGHT THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND HAS
PUSHED UP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINS SOUTH OF A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS PUSHED MORE EAST THAN SOUTH
OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS AND NOW EXTENDS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO POOL. SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG
WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE ONLY
THREAT IN STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT CONCERNING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GFS
KEEPING US SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS. NOT SURE IF IT IS OVERDOING
THIS A BIT. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...THINK THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER WILL FALL APART AND WE MIGHT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OR
PARTIAL CLEARING WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...AS NAM12 HINTS. LEANING
TOWARD THE NAM12 SOLUTION IN THE EVENING...BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES FURTHER
SOUTH INTO TN OR NORTHERN AL.

THINK THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BEFORE THEN THOUGH WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND
9000 FEET AND MICROBURST POTENTIAL AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. GFS HINTS AT AN
ISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OR
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BUT OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE CONFLICTS WITH THAT.

NEWEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES BACK INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD EXPECT HIGHS TO
RECOVER INTO THE NORMAL RANGE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM 80 TO 85
DEGREE RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS AND A BIT COOLER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LOWS WILL DIP AGAIN POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARMING TREND...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM TEXAS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY OVER THE WEEKEND.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
FOR 18Z TAFS...MAINLY MVFR CLOUDS AND SOME SCT SHRA ACROSS THE CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROF. WILL INCLUDE VCSH IN TAFS UNTIL 00Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THRU AROUND 06Z TONIGHT.
AFTER 06Z KMSL/HSV MAY BECOME SCT ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
FOG/LOW CLOUDS UNTIL 13Z. AFTER 13Z EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE WHILE
CEILINGS BECOME MVFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE
SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    58  78  60  83  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        59  78  58  85  59 /  10  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      58  75  58  81  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  76  56  81  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   57  76  56  81  58 /  20  20  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    57  76  54  81  56 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KBMX 142011
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
311 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TROF HAS PUSHED FARTHER EASTWARD THAN EXPECTED...AND THIS HAS
KEPT THE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT
TERM IS CLOUD COVER AND FOG FOR TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY
ERODING...BUT A SOLID DECK STILL EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND
EAST ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REFORM IN AREAS THAT CLEAR..SO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL...BUT STILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST OF I-65 WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

A SURFACE TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
THOUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH ALABAMA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...AND ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...
AND WILL CARRY LOW END POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. THE UPPER TROF
AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BRING
AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DUE TO RISING
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER TROF...AND THIS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. GFS MOS
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE HIGH END OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AND
WENT CLOSER TO AVERAGE OF MOS ENSEMBLE.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE GFS TYPICALLY DOES...IT
SHOWS MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG WEDGE FRONT THAN OTHER
MODELS...AND WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A FRONT WILL INDEED REACH
ALABAMA. OVERALL...A NICE WEEKEND ON TAP. THE EASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WEDGE FRONT WILL WEAKEN BY MONDAY AS AS SHORT WAVE
TROF APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH NORTH ALABAMA
UNTIL TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY
EXITS TO THE ENE. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THRU THE
DAY...BUT CIGS SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE VFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT
OF THE NW AROUND 5-8 KTS THEN BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. THE CALM
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANY CLOUD
COVER THAT MANAGES TO HANG AROUND THRU THE DAY COULD LOWER ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT...LEADING TO MVFR/IFR CIGS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP BOTH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER
CHANGES TO THE CIG/VIS FORECAST ARE LIKELY WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCSH FOR ANB ATTM.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  80  56  82  54 /  20  20  10  10   0
ANNISTON    56  80  57  82  55 /  20  20  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  60  81  59  83  59 /  10  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  60  82  59  85  58 /  10  10  10  10   0
CALERA      60  81  59  83  58 /  10  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      63  82  63  83  61 /  20  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  61  84  62  85  60 /  10  20  10  10  10
TROY        59  83  59  84  57 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KMOB 141744 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1237 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.AVIATION...[18Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z TUES. FEW TO
SCT CUMULUS AT 3K FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED
BY BKN CIRRUS AT AROUND 25K FT FORMING OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BRIEF
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2K FT IN AND AROUND THE PRECIPITATION. WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING MOSTLY NORTH AT 5 KNOTS OR
LESS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 18Z TUES.
32/EE

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A WEAK COLD WAS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR ABOVE 700 MB HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA
WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW 1.25 INCHES. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS FOR
EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS TO THE
WEST. DUE TO THE FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EAST OF I-65. THE DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT WILL
PREVENT MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST. 13/JC

(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND AS SUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF I-65. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S...WITH TUESDAY
NIGHT LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER NORTHWEST INTERIOR
ZONES TO THE MID 60S CLOSER TOWARD THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
FCST AREA BY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...THEN
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INTERIOR AND MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (14/12Z ISSUANCE)...WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FROM KPNS EAST...THE RISK IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. THE 12Z ISSUANCE WILL MAINTAIN A
VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/JC


&&

.MARINE...MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW EACH
AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
AND MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK...LARGELY DUE TO DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  63  84  62 /  10  05  20  10
PENSACOLA   84  65  84  66 /  20  10  30  10
DESTIN      82  69  81  67 /  20  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   83  60  85  60 /  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  82  59  84  57 /  05  05  20  10
CAMDEN      82  59  84  58 /  10  05  20  10
CRESTVIEW   86  61  86  60 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KHUN 141731
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1231 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
WRN GA. LOW CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO COVER ALL OF THE CWA AND BASED
ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS...DONT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH
SUN TODAY. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR SEEING SOME SUN WOULD BE IN NW AL.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING. WILL ALSO LOWER TEMPS TODAY
A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. AT 5H THERE
IS A WEAK TROF THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP
CURRENT LOW POPS FOR A FEW SHRA OR STORMS...DUE TO SOME ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I65. NO SVR WX IS
EXPECTED.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...MAINLY MVFR CLOUDS AND SOME SCT SHRA ACROSS THE CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROF. WILL INCLUDE VCSH IN TAFS UNTIL 00Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THRU AROUND 06Z TONIGHT.
AFTER 06Z KMSL/HSV MAY BECOME SCT ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
FOG/LOW CLOUDS UNTIL 13Z. AFTER 13Z EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE WHILE
CEILINGS BECOME MVFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE
SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KBMX 141727
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1227 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA WITH A SURFACE
TROF EXTENDING ACROSS EAST ALABAMA. A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS
ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEST SIDE OF 1000-850MB
TROF AXIS. ANY PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO
EAST ALABAMA ON EAST SIDE OF 1000-850MB TROF. ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOSTLY ISOLATED IN NATURE AS SHORT WAVE TROF IS MOVING INTO GEORGIA.
MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY
EXITS TO THE ENE. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THRU THE
DAY...BUT CIGS SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE VFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT
OF THE NW AROUND 5-8 KTS THEN BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. THE CALM
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANY CLOUD
COVER THAT MANAGES TO HANG AROUND THRU THE DAY COULD LOWER ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT...LEADING TO MVFR/IFR CIGS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP BOTH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER
CHANGES TO THE CIG/VIS FORECAST ARE LIKELY WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCSH FOR ANB ATTM.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A LARGE DRY SLOT THAT
HAS PUSHED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WAS ALSO EVIDENT ON
THE 00Z BMX RAOB ALOFT. BLENDED PRECIP WATER PRODUCT HAS THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT OVER EASTERN GEORGIA...BUT OUR 1.30+
VALUES ARE STILL 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR SO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND OPEN WAVE FRONTAL STRUCTURE STILL HANGING ON OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS. LOCAL RADARS HAVE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EAST
NEAR THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND INTERFACE BETWEEN DRY AND MOIST AIR
ALOFT...BUT DECREASING IN COVERAGE QUICKLY. ANOTHER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND
THIS MEAN MOISTURE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND HAVE NO IMPACT
HERE. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
AREAS HAVE BEEN BRIEFLY CLOUD FREE WERE SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
RADAR ESTIMATES HAVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT AROUND 1
INCH WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL
ACROSS THE DROUGHT STRICKEN SOUTHEAST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

00Z MODEL SUITE APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED PRETTY GOOD WITH THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PARK JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKS AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DECREASING. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP TO 60 PERCENT OR LESS MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND K INDICES STRUGGLE
TO REACH 30. THEREFORE...HELD LOW CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A FEW IMPULSES RIDING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
MAY KICK OFF A SHOWER OR STORM. BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY TIME
HEAT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
SLIPS FAR ENOUGH EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THIS ALONG WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST...WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ELIMINATE RAIN CHANCES AND WARM THINGS UP
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATES START OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS AND JUMP ABOVE BY
WEEKS END.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  60  79  57  82 /  30  20  20  10  10
ANNISTON    77  58  79  57  82 /  30  20  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  78  62  80  61  82 /  20  10  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  80  61  81  60  84 /  10  10  20  10  10
CALERA      79  62  80  60  82 /  20  10  20  10  10
AUBURN      80  64  80  62  82 /  30  20  20  10  20
MONTGOMERY  81  62  82  62  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
TROY        82  61  82  61  84 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/19/75

000
FXUS64 KBMX 141537
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1037 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...TODAYS WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA WITH A SURFACE
TROF EXTENDING ACROSS EAST ALABAMA. A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS
ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEST SIDE OF 1000-850MB
TROF AXIS. ANY PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO
EAST ALABAMA ON EAST SIDE OF 1000-850MB TROF. ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOSTLY ISOLATED IN NATURE AS SHORT WAVE TROF IS MOVING INTO GEORGIA.
MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A LOW CLOUD DECK BEHIND YESTERDAY`S FRONT IS CAUSING FLIGHT CATEGORY
PROBLEMS ARE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.  IFR AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS AND
BOUNDING AROUND...WITH THE MAJORITY OF SITES SEEING IFR.  ALL SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO VFR BY 20-21Z.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT
AGAIN... WITH LOW CIGS AND VIS...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND WINDS GO CALM.  KTOI SHOULD BE THE WORST...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED AGAIN.

27


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A LARGE DRY SLOT THAT
HAS PUSHED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WAS ALSO EVIDENT ON
THE 00Z BMX RAOB ALOFT. BLENDED PRECIP WATER PRODUCT HAS THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT OVER EASTERN GEORGIA...BUT OUR 1.30+
VALUES ARE STILL 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR SO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND OPEN WAVE FRONTAL STRUCTURE STILL HANGING ON OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS. LOCAL RADARS HAVE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EAST
NEAR THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND INTERFACE BETWEEN DRY AND MOIST AIR
ALOFT...BUT DECREASING IN COVERAGE QUICKLY. ANOTHER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND
THIS MEAN MOISTURE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND HAVE NO IMPACT
HERE. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
AREAS HAVE BEEN BRIEFLY CLOUD FREE WERE SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
RADAR ESTIMATES HAVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT AROUND 1
INCH WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL
ACROSS THE DROUGHT STRICKEN SOUTHEAST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

00Z MODEL SUITE APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED PRETTY GOOD WITH THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PARK JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKS AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DECREASING. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP TO 60 PERCENT OR LESS MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND K INDICES STRUGGLE
TO REACH 30. THEREFORE...HELD LOW CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A FEW IMPULSES RIDING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
MAY KICK OFF A SHOWER OR STORM. BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY TIME
HEAT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
SLIPS FAR ENOUGH EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THIS ALONG WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST...WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ELIMINATE RAIN CHANCES AND WARM THINGS UP
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATES START OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS AND JUMP ABOVE BY
WEEKS END.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  60  79  57  82 /  30  20  20  10  10
ANNISTON    77  58  79  57  82 /  30  20  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  78  62  80  61  82 /  20  10  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  80  61  81  60  84 /  10  10  20  10  10
CALERA      79  62  80  60  82 /  20  10  20  10  10
AUBURN      80  64  80  62  82 /  30  20  20  10  20
MONTGOMERY  81  62  82  62  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
TROY        82  61  82  61  84 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/07/07

000
FXUS64 KHUN 141532
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...
TWEAKED SKY COVER AND LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SFC LOW IS NOW OVER ERN TN WITH CDFNT EXTENDING INTO
WRN GA. LOW CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO COVER ALL OF THE CWA AND BASED
ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS...DONT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH
SUN TODAY. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR SEEING SOME SUN WOULD BE IN NW AL.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING. WILL ALSO LOWER TEMPS TODAY
A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. AT 5H THERE
IS A WEAK TROF THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP
CURRENT LOW POPS FOR A FEW SHRA OR STORMS...DUE TO SOME ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I65. NO SVR WX IS
EXPECTED.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD.
OVERCAST...MOSTLY IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
BY THE LATE MORNING...AND BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR THIS AFTERNOON. AN
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE...WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AFFECTING A
TERMINAL...DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY LATE NIGHT/PRE DAWN WITH FOG
FORECAST TO FORM. EVEN LOWER MINIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
A DRIER AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WITH THE EXIT OF THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OF WEST TN, SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND LOW CLOUDS ARE DOMINATING THE TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS EXTENDING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THOUGH THERE WAS A
CLEARING LINE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL TN AND THE MS/AL BORDER,
DECOUPLING, DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL BELT, AND THE MOIST LOW LEVELS
HAVE LED TO LOW CLOUDS BUILDING BACK WEST. EVEN WITH THE LOW CLOUD
DECK, FOG CONTINUES TO FORM AND HAVE RETAINED PATCHY FOG THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, BUT THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND THINNING CLOUDS.  DAYTIME HIGHS ARE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTY ON THE BREAKING OF THE CLOUDS, BUT
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS (HIGHER) TO NW AL WHERE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ERODE QUICKER. HAVE RETAINED SCHC WORDING FOR LINGERING
DEVELOPMENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. PLAN VIEW AND SOUNDING
FORECASTS INDICATE SB INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NE AL. SO, HAVE RAISED POPS AND ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA (WITH LOWER POPS WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 FOR ANY STRAY THUNDERSTORMS) MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY, BUT HAVE KEPT THE
AREA MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S OVER NW AL.

AFTER ANY REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT, A
CLEARING SKY, RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FOG FORMATION. THUS, HAVE
ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE, AN ELONGATED
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FROM THE MIDWEST TO NM WILL PROPAGATE
SE TOWARDS THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE TN
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE, BUT THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE TROUGH SUGGESTS OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HAVE THUS ADDED A SCHC OF MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

ONCE THIS ELONGATED TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST, A PATTERN
TRANSITION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA BEGINS, WITH RIDGE BUILDING
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITHIN NW FLOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGHS ON EITHER
SIDE. SOUTHERN VORT LOBE REMAINING FROM THE ELONGATED TROUGH THAT
CROSSED THE SOUTHEAST, APPEARS TO CUTOFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW JUST OFF THE EAST COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST, THE TN VALLEY REMAINS QUIET
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND.
HOWEVER, THE MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY DEPICTING CONVECTION WITHIN NW
FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS,
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION, THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL TREND LOOKS TO
HAVE US WITHIN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH (ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST). THIS MAY ALSO BE A REASON TO
RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS, BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WARM GRADUALLY INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

000
FXUS64 KHUN 141135 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
635 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
A DRIER AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WITH THE EXIT OF THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OF WEST TN, SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND LOW CLOUDS ARE DOMINATING THE TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS EXTENDING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THOUGH THERE WAS A
CLEARING LINE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL TN AND THE MS/AL BORDER,
DECOUPLING, DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL BELT, AND THE MOIST LOW LEVELS
HAVE LED TO LOW CLOUDS BUILDING BACK WEST. EVEN WITH THE LOW CLOUD
DECK, FOG CONTINUES TO FORM AND HAVE RETAINED PATCHY FOG THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, BUT THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND THINNING CLOUDS.  DAYTIME HIGHS ARE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTY ON THE BREAKING OF THE CLOUDS, BUT
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS (HIGHER) TO NW AL WHERE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ERODE QUICKER. HAVE RETAINED SCHC WORDING FOR LINGERING
DEVELOPMENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. PLAN VIEW AND SOUNDING
FORECASTS INDICATE SB INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NE AL. SO, HAVE RAISED POPS AND ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA (WITH LOWER POPS WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 FOR ANY STRAY THUNDERSTORMS) MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY, BUT HAVE KEPT THE
AREA MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S OVER NW AL.

AFTER ANY REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT, A
CLEARING SKY, RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FOG FORMATION. THUS, HAVE
ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE, AN ELONGATED
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FROM THE MIDWEST TO NM WILL PROPAGATE
SE TOWARDS THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE TN
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE, BUT THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE TROUGH SUGGESTS OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HAVE THUS ADDED A SCHC OF MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

ONCE THIS ELONGATED TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST, A PATTERN
TRANSITION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA BEGINS, WITH RIDGE BUILDING
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITHIN NW FLOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGHS ON EITHER
SIDE. SOUTHERN VORT LOBE REMAINING FROM THE ELONGATED TROUGH THAT
CROSSED THE SOUTHEAST, APPEARS TO CUTOFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW JUST OFF THE EAST COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST, THE TN VALLEY REMAINS QUIET
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND.
HOWEVER, THE MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY DEPICTING CONVECTION WITHIN NW
FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS,
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION, THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL TREND LOOKS TO
HAVE US WITHIN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH (ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST). THIS MAY ALSO BE A REASON TO
RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS, BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WARM GRADUALLY INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD.
OVERCAST...MOSTLY IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
BY THE LATE MORNING...AND BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR THIS AFTERNOON. AN
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE...WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AFFECTING A
TERMINAL...DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY LATE NIGHT/PRE DAWN WITH FOG
FORECAST TO FORM. EVEN LOWER MINIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.