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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 251127
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
627 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW
SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING 80F AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD
FROM TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S AREA-WIDE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST BY TUESDAY TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO A NARROW ZONE NEAR THE FRONT
WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY
AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT EXITS INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA WITH 30-40 POPS. WILL KEEP
20 POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A THE FRONT PAUSES
AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INDICATING THE FRONT WILL BE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. PERHAPS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON COULD BE ON THE WAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PRODUCE NORTH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  49  82  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    77  49  82  52  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  78  53  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  80  53  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  54  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      77  53  81  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  79  53  84  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        78  51  83  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 251127
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
627 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW
SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING 80F AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD
FROM TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S AREA-WIDE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST BY TUESDAY TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO A NARROW ZONE NEAR THE FRONT
WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY
AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT EXITS INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA WITH 30-40 POPS. WILL KEEP
20 POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A THE FRONT PAUSES
AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INDICATING THE FRONT WILL BE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. PERHAPS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON COULD BE ON THE WAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PRODUCE NORTH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  49  82  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    77  49  82  52  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  78  53  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  80  53  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  54  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      77  53  81  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  79  53  84  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        78  51  83  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 251117 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
617 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 150 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SE THRU THE
CAROLINAS WHILE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE SWRN THRU CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK TROF/COOL FRONT (MAINLY A MOISTURE BOUNDARY) WAS SITUATED FROM
WI THRU IA INTO WRN KS. A TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE WAS FLOWING THRU
WRN TX INTO KS AND MO AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
INTO OUR REGION TODAY, BUT LIKELY ONLY LEAD TO NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED AFTN CU. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH FULL SUN SHOULD ENABLE
MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE M-U70S THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS APPEAR
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR AREAS-WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
WITH A COMBINATION OF ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE HWO. THE COOL
FRONT STALLS OUT IN A NW-SE ORIENTATION FROM SERN MO INTO NRN GA
SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL INFLUENCE OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY EQUATING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING LOWS THAN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN ENVELOP THE AREA ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE SUMMERLIKE WARMTH. THE
SHORTENING DAYS WILL LIMIT HEATING, BUT A FEW U80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FROM
THE NW. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. NEVERTHELESS,
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT GENERATES A RATHER CONTINUOUS LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA BY BOTH GFS/ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHC
POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND
THIS FRONT, SO A DRY AND COOL DAYS 6-7 ARE BEING FORECAST ATTM. FROST
MAY BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS WELL BY THE MORNING OF DAY 8 JUST
BEYOND THIS PACKAGE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 26/08-09Z.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATION FOG TONIGHT. THE EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE FOG IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE FAVORED NEAR LAKES AND IN NARROW VALLEYS. FOR NOW...MVFR
FOG WAS INCLUDED IN BOTH KHSV/KMSL TAF SITES AFTER 09/08Z,
RESPECTIVELY.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251117 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
617 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 150 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SE THRU THE
CAROLINAS WHILE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE SWRN THRU CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK TROF/COOL FRONT (MAINLY A MOISTURE BOUNDARY) WAS SITUATED FROM
WI THRU IA INTO WRN KS. A TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE WAS FLOWING THRU
WRN TX INTO KS AND MO AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
INTO OUR REGION TODAY, BUT LIKELY ONLY LEAD TO NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED AFTN CU. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH FULL SUN SHOULD ENABLE
MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE M-U70S THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS APPEAR
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR AREAS-WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
WITH A COMBINATION OF ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE HWO. THE COOL
FRONT STALLS OUT IN A NW-SE ORIENTATION FROM SERN MO INTO NRN GA
SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL INFLUENCE OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY EQUATING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING LOWS THAN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN ENVELOP THE AREA ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE SUMMERLIKE WARMTH. THE
SHORTENING DAYS WILL LIMIT HEATING, BUT A FEW U80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FROM
THE NW. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. NEVERTHELESS,
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT GENERATES A RATHER CONTINUOUS LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA BY BOTH GFS/ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHC
POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND
THIS FRONT, SO A DRY AND COOL DAYS 6-7 ARE BEING FORECAST ATTM. FROST
MAY BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS WELL BY THE MORNING OF DAY 8 JUST
BEYOND THIS PACKAGE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 26/08-09Z.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATION FOG TONIGHT. THE EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE FOG IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE FAVORED NEAR LAKES AND IN NARROW VALLEYS. FOR NOW...MVFR
FOG WAS INCLUDED IN BOTH KHSV/KMSL TAF SITES AFTER 09/08Z,
RESPECTIVELY.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 250943
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
443 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE GA/SC COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LARGE MID TO UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST WHILE A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALL RESULTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 10 METERS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO A 3-4 DEGREE INCREASE IN HIGHS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 80. LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST.
34/JFB

A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SUNDAY. A DEEP DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD IN
PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
INLAND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND
THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE OH/TN REGION TUESDAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ALSO STRETCHES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST TX. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN A
PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THESE
FEATURES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1 AND
1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWFA. MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING IN BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. THE HIGHS MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
MONDAY/TUESDAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE NORTH. 2-3 FT SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING SETTLE TO 1-2 FT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL SLIGHTLY BUILD AGAIN BY TUESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  57  83  59  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   79  60  82  61  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      77  62  79  64  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   80  51  84  54  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  80  52  85  54  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      79  52  85  54  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   80  49  84  55  83 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 250846
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
346 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW
SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING 80F AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD
FROM TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S AREA-WIDE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST BY TUESDAY TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO A NARROW ZONE NEAR THE FRONT
WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY
AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT EXITS INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA WITH 30-40 POPS. WILL KEEP
20 POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A THE FRONT PAUSES
AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INDICATING THE FRONT WILL BE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. PERHAPS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON COULD BE ON THE WAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PRODUCE NORTH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  49  82  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    77  49  82  52  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  78  53  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  80  53  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  54  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      77  53  81  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  79  53  84  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        78  51  83  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/58






000
FXUS64 KHUN 250650
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
150 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SE THRU THE
CAROLINAS WHILE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE SWRN THRU CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK TROF/COOL FRONT (MAINLY A MOISTURE BOUNDARY) WAS SITUATED FROM
WI THRU IA INTO WRN KS. A TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE WAS FLOWING THRU
WRN TX INTO KS AND MO AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
INTO OUR REGION TODAY, BUT LIKELY ONLY LEAD TO NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED AFTN CU. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH FULL SUN SHOULD ENABLE
MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE M-U70S THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS APPEAR
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR AREAS-WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
WITH A COMBINATION OF ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE HWO. THE COOL
FRONT STALLS OUT IN A NW-SE ORIENTATION FROM SERN MO INTO NRN GA
SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL INFLUENCE OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY EQUATING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING LOWS THAN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN ENVELOP THE AREA ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE SUMMERLIKE WARMTH. THE
SHORTENING DAYS WILL LIMIT HEATING, BUT A FEW U80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FROM
THE NW. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. NEVERTHELESS,
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT GENERATES A RATHER CONTINUOUS LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA BY BOTH GFS/ECWMF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHC
POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND
THIS FRONT, SO A DRY AND COOL DAYS 6-7 ARE BEING FORECAST ATTM. FROST
MAY BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS WELL BY THE MORNING OF DAY 8 JUST
BEYOND THIS PACKAGE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE NIGHT FOR HSV. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO 5SM AT KMSL
FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL SHALLOW FOG BTWN 09-13Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS BY THE LATE MORNING WILL BECOME SW-W IN THE 5-10KT
RANGE.

RSB/KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    77  52  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        79  52  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      76  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  75  51  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   75  52  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    76  52  81  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250532 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 914 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS (9 PM READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S)
PREVAILED THIS EVENING...AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM E-SE TEXAS TO THE APPALACHIANS CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE MOVING
AROUND UPPER RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MEXICO...WITH BRINGING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW.

TEMP/DEWPOINT SEPARATIONS (AT LEAST AT THE ASOS SITES) WERE AROUND
10 DEGREES THIS EVENING. BUT LAMP AND OLDER NAM/GFS GUIDANCE HAS
DRY BULB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
THUS...ADDITIONAL LATE NIGHT FOG/MIST FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. FOG
PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THOSE NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND WIND SHELTERED
SPOTS WILL MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY FOG. THUS DELAYED FOG
FORMATION BY A FEW HOURS IN THIS UPDATE. OTHER MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW
TEMPS WERE MADE TOO. NEW UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE NIGHT FOR HSV. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO 5SM AT KMSL
FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL SHALLOW FOG BTWN 09-13Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS BY THE LATE MORNING WILL BECOME SW-W IN THE 5-10KT
RANGE.

RSB/KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 250526
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1226 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO CLOUDS TO SLOW THE COOLING DOWN TONIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD MANY
MID 40S BY SUNRISE AND MAYBE SOME LOWER 40S IN THE COLDER RURAL
SPOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PRODUCE NORTH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  51  80  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  51  80  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  77  53  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  79  54  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  54  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      76  54  81  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  79  54  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        77  52  82  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 250446 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.06Z. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE.
/22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE...IT WAS BARELY ABLE TO CAUSE A FEW
CLOUDS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR WEST...A COOL
AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE. AS A
RESULT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S INLAND
TONIGHT TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TO AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. 13/JC

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...RIDGING AT BOTH THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SFC FLOW WILL TURN MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE SLIDES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO DAYTIME HIGHS. ON SUNDAY LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER INTERIOR ZONES...UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR BOTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S (AND
EVEN A FEW LOWER 60S) COASTAL. SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 12/DS

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE TO LONGER TERM
FCST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTH IN THE GULF COAST STATES. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1.25-1.5
INCHES BY MIDWEEK...BUT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SO WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE WEEK...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
WED/THU AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SEMI-ZONAL. ANY COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DELAYED TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
12/DS & 34/JFB

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. 13/JC

FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. RED FLAG CRITERIA ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  80  58  83  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   55  80  60  82  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      59  79  66  79  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   44  80  51  84  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  46  82  51  85  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  80  51  85  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  81  49  84  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 250247
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
947 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO CLOUDS TO SLOW THE COOLING DOWN TONIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD MANY
MID 40S BY SUNRISE AND MAYBE SOME LOWER 40S IN THE COLDER RURAL
SPOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 250214 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
914 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO DELAY FOG FORMATION UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...AND A FEW LOW TEMPERATURE TWEAKS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS (9 PM READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S)
PREVAILED THIS EVENING...AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM E-SE TEXAS TO THE APPALACHIANS CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE MOVING
AROUND UPPER RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MEXICO...WITH BRINGING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW.

TEMP/DEWPOINT SEPARATIONS (AT LEAST AT THE ASOS SITES) WERE AROUND
10 DEGREES THIS EVENING. BUT LAMP AND OLDER NAM/GFS GUIDANCE HAS
DRY BULB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
THUS...ADDITIONAL LATE NIGHT FOG/MIST FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. FOG
PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THOSE NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND WIND SHELTERED
SPOTS WILL MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY FOG. THUS DELAYED FOG
FORMATION BY A FEW HOURS IN THIS UPDATE. OTHER MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW
TEMPS WERE MADE TOO. NEW UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 622 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN KMSL LOCATION NEAR TN RIVER...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO 3SM BR IN
THE LATE NIGHT/DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SW-W AROUND 5 KT SAT AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 141 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR EARLY FALL AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE PINEY WOODS OF TEXAS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MS
DELTA THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE TN
VALLEY REGION REMAINS UNDER LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOWER 40S (IN MOST AREAS).

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL KEEP TONIGHT`S MINS CLOSE TO THIS
MORNING`S READINGS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT AIRMASS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN
MENTION THE VALLEY/RIVER FOG WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER PREVALENT THIS
WEEK.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE TN VLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE U/L RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT FLOW, DRY CONDITIONS, AND LARGE DIURNAL RANGES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT
3-4 DAYS AND WENT WITH A BLEND THAT HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

AS WE APPROACH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MODEL AS IT SEEMS TO HANDLE THE ENERGY (REMNANTS OF TS ANA) COMING
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BETTER. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, WILL MAINTAIN AN INCLUSION OF THUNDER FOR NOW.
SIGNIFICANT ENERGY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM IN THE TROUGH SO
EXPECT THE INITIAL FRONT TO EITHER HANG UP OR DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BIT COOLER END TO NEXT WEEK.

15

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 242334
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
634 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN U.S. IS EXITING TO THE EAST WITH A
CLEAR SATELLITE ACROSS ALABAMA EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY THIN UPPER
MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. SURFACE RIDGING ALSO EXTENDS FROM
MEXICO TO THE OHIO VALLEY SO A DRY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S.
AND DOWN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CREEP UP
OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER THIS INFLUENCE BACK INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY
AND GOING UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOW RAIN CHANCES FINALLY RETURN TO THE PICTURE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY IS
BROAD. BY THURSDAY THE TROUGH DIGS A TAD AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH ALONG WITH
ANY LINGERING MOISTURE...DRYING THINGS OFF BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 242333 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.00Z. A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 26.00Z 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...MADE MINOR TWEAKS MOSTLY TO THE INSHORE WATERS INCREASING
WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE EARLY SAT MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE...IT WAS BARELY ABLE TO CAUSE A FEW
CLOUDS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR WEST...A COOL
AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE. AS A
RESULT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S INLAND
TONIGHT TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TO AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. 13/JC

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...RIDGING AT BOTH THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SFC FLOW WILL TURN MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE SLIDES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO DAYTIME HIGHS. ON SUNDAY LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER INTERIOR ZONES...UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR BOTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S (AND
EVEN A FEW LOWER 60S) COASTAL. SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 12/DS

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE TO LONGER TERM
FCST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTH IN THE GULF COAST STATES. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1.25-1.5
INCHES BY MIDWEEK...BUT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SO WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE WEEK...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
WED/THU AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SEMI-ZONAL. ANY COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DELAYED TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
12/DS & 34/JFB

AVIATION...
25.00Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. 13/JC

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. 13/JC

FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. RED FLAG CRITERIA ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  51  80  58  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  55  80  60  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  59  79  66  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  44  80  51  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  76  46  82  51  85 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      76  44  80  51  85 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  81  49  84 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 242322 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
622 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 141 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR EARLY FALL AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE PINEY WOODS OF TEXAS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MS
DELTA THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE TN
VALLEY REGION REMAINS UNDER LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOWER 40S (IN MOST AREAS).

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL KEEP TONIGHT`S MINS CLOSE TO THIS
MORNING`S READINGS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT AIRMASS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN
MENTION THE VALLEY/RIVER FOG WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER PREVALENT THIS
WEEK.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE TN VLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE U/L RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT FLOW, DRY CONDITIONS, AND LARGE DIURNAL RANGES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT
3-4 DAYS AND WENT WITH A BLEND THAT HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

AS WE APPROACH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MODEL AS IT SEEMS TO HANDLE THE ENERGY (REMNANTS OF TS ANA) COMING
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BETTER. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, WILL MAINTAIN AN INCLUSION OF THUNDER FOR NOW.
SIGNIFICANT ENERGY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM IN THE TROUGH SO
EXPECT THE INITIAL FRONT TO EITHER HANG UP OR DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BIT COOLER END TO NEXT WEEK.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN KMSL LOCATION NEAR TN RIVER...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO 3SM BR IN
THE LATE NIGHT/DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SW-W AROUND 5 KT SAT AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 242053
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
353 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE...IT WAS BARELY ABLE TO CAUSE A FEW
CLOUDS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR WEST...A COOL
AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE. AS A
RESULT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S INLAND
TONIGHT TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TO AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. 13/JC

.(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...RIDGING AT BOTH THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SFC FLOW WILL TURN MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE SLIDES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO DAYTIME HIGHS. ON SUNDAY LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER INTERIOR ZONES...UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR BOTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S (AND
EVEN A FEW LOWER 60S) COASTAL. SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE TO LONGER TERM
FCST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTH IN THE GULF COAST STATES. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1.25-1.5
INCHES BY MIDWEEK...BUT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SO WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE WEEK...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
WED/THU AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SEMI-ZONAL. ANY COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DELAYED TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
12/DS & 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
25.00Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. RED FLAG CRITERIA ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  80  58  83  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   55  80  60  82  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      59  79  66  79  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   44  80  51  84  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  46  82  51  85  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  80  51  85  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  81  49  84  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 242051
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
351 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN U.S. IS EXITING TO THE EAST WITH A
CLEAR SATELLITE ACROSS ALABAMA EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY THIN UPPER
MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. SURFACE RIDGING ALSO EXTENDS FROM
MEXICO TO THE OHIO VALLEY SO A DRY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S.
AND DOWN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CREEP UP
OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER THIS INFLUENCE BACK INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY
AND GOING UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOW RAIN CHANCES FINALLY RETURN TO THE PICTURE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY IS
BROAD. BY THURSDAY THE TROUGH DIGS A TAD AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH ALONG WITH
ANY LINGERING MOISTURE...DRYING THINGS OFF BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     44  76  51  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    45  75  51  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  47  77  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  46  79  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      48  77  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  76  54  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  47  79  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        44  77  52  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/32






000
FXUS64 KHUN 241841
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
141 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR EARLY FALL AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE PINEY WOODS OF TEXAS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MS
DELTA THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE TN
VALLEY REGION REMAINS UNDER LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOWER 40S (IN MOST AREAS).

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL KEEP TONIGHT`S MINS CLOSE TO THIS
MORNING`S READINGS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT AIRMASS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN
MENTION THE VALLEY/RIVER FOG WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER PREVALENT THIS
WEEK.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE TN VLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE U/L RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT FLOW, DRY CONDITIONS, AND LARGE DIURNAL RANGES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT
3-4 DAYS AND WENT WITH A BLEND THAT HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

AS WE APPROACH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MODEL AS IT SEEMS TO HANDLE THE ENERGY (REMNANTS OF TS ANA) COMING
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BETTER. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, WILL MAINTAIN AN INCLUSION OF THUNDER FOR NOW.
SIGNIFICANT ENERGY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM IN THE TROUGH SO
EXPECT THE INITIAL FRONT TO EITHER HANG UP OR DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BIT COOLER END TO NEXT WEEK.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1223 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME -BR/MVFR VIS AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS SAT.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  77  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        46  79  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      45  76  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  44  76  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  76  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    43  75  51  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 241732
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1232 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING CLOUDS AND VIRGA HAVE GONE AWAY...AND THAT WILL LEAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE PLANNED ON THE
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 241723 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
QUIET AND TRANQUIL WX CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
THIS LATE FRI MORNING...WITH ANY LINGERING SPOTTY CLOUD COVER JUST
ABOUT CLR OF NE AL. THICKER LOW CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST STATES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EWD TOWARD THE
MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES LOOK TO REMAIN N OF THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION BELOW H7. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED FROM
THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND DROP
SWD...AS ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NW. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
WRN GULF REGION...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 70S RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A PERSISTENT LIGHT NLY
FETCH AT THE SFC THOUGH MAY INHIBIT TEMPS LATER TODAY FROM INCREASING
MORE INTO THE MID 70S...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SE
OF THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...OTHER THAN LOWERING AFTERNOON HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO...ALONG WITH REFRESHING SOME OF THE CURRENT GRIDS...NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST GRIDS/PACKAGE AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME -BR/MVFR VIS AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS SAT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 241720 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE
FANFARE DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED. /13

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. /13

&&

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 337 AM...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA ATTM MOVES EAST...THE CLOUD OVER ASSOCIATED WITH
IT MOVES OFF...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN US ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST...TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO
BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND KEEP
THE FA UNDER LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

EVEN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD A BIT OVER THE
FA...AM EXPECTING THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO PUSH COOLER AIR
OVER THE FA AND KEEP TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL. /16

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
RESULTS IN A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING...
BUT LOWS WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AFTER THAT AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

A DEEP LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE MONDAY AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1.25-1.5 INCHES BY MIDWEEK...BUT THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SO WHILE
HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...WILL ONLY
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WED/THU AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO SEMI-ZONAL. ANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DELAYED
TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  50  78  55  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  53  79  58  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  55  78  61  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  78  50  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  76  44  80  51  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      76  43  78  50  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  79  51  83 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KHUN 241628 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON HIGHS DECREASED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY. OTHERWISE NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND TRANQUIL WX CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
THIS LATE FRI MORNING...WITH ANY LINGERING SPOTTY CLOUD COVER JUST
ABOUT CLR OF NE AL. THICKER LOW CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST STATES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EWD TOWARD THE
MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES LOOK TO REMAIN N OF THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION BELOW H7. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED FROM
THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND DROP
SWD...AS ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NW. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
WRN GULF REGION...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 70S RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A PERSISTENT LIGHT NLY
FETCH AT THE SFC THOUGH MAY INHIBIT TEMPS LATER TODAY FROM INCREASING
MORE INTO THE MID 70S...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SE
OF THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...OTHER THAN LOWERING AFTERNOON HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO...ALONG WITH REFRESHING SOME OF THE CURRENT GRIDS...NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST GRIDS/PACKAGE AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 603 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
UPR TROF WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EAST OF THE AREA TAKING WITH IT THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS FORECAST.
PATCHY VALLEY/GROUND FOG TONIGHT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.

DJN.83

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
THICK MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
THIS TROUGH -- WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES LATER TODAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A PACIFIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXPECT STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO RESULT IN A RAPID CLEARING TREND WITH SUNNY SKIES
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S BY AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NNW WINDS TODAY AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG IN
LOCAL VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY...WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN A MINOR INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD
WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GULF WITH SUNNY SKIES AND GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...IT STILL APPEARS AS IF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS -- ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE -- WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE STEADILY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONGER WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THE
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT -- WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ON THURSDAY. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WITH A VEERED LOW-LEVEL JET
OF ONLY 15-25 KNOTS. THIS COUPLED WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
AT BEST ARGUE FOR THE THREAT OF ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY PENETRATE
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WITH THE FIRST REAL
THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE COMING ON HALLOWEEN WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 241526
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1026 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING CLOUDS AND VIRGA HAVE GONE AWAY...AND THAT WILL LEAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE PLANNED ON THE
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLIDING OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SCT TO BKN CIRRUS DECK. LOOK FOR
CLEARING BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS. VFR
FOR THE PERIOD.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 241108
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
608 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE CAUSED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
EXTREMELY DRY BELOW THESE CLOUDS AS INDICATED BY VIRGA ON THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE RADAR VIEW. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH MILD NORTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE.

MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON SATURDAY AS A
RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO JUST A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF
RECORD LEVELS FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE MOISTURE TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FORCING MECHANISM...THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS
FORWARD PROGRESSION. WITH FORWARD SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
IN QUESTION...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW BROADBRUSHED 20 POPS ACROSS
THE CWA FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLIDING OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SCT TO BKN CIRRUS DECK. LOOK FOR
CLEARING BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS. VFR
FOR THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 241103 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
603 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
THICK MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
THIS TROUGH -- WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES LATER TODAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A PACIFIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXPECT STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO RESULT IN A RAPID CLEARING TREND WITH SUNNY SKIES
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S BY AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NNW WINDS TODAY AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG IN
LOCAL VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY...WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN A MINOR INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD
WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GULF WITH SUNNY SKIES AND GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...IT STILL APPEARS AS IF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS -- ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE -- WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE STEADILY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONGER WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THE
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT -- WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ON THURSDAY. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WITH A VEERED LOW-LEVEL JET
OF ONLY 15-25 KNOTS. THIS COUPLED WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
AT BEST ARGUE FOR THE THREAT OF ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY PENETRATE
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WITH THE FIRST REAL
THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE COMING ON HALLOWEEN WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
UPR TROF WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EAST OF THE AREA TAKING WITH IT THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS FORECAST.
PATCHY VALLEY/GROUND FOG TONIGHT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 240950
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
450 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THICK MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
THIS TROUGH -- WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES LATER TODAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A PACIFIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXPECT STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO RESULT IN A RAPID CLEARING TREND WITH SUNNY SKIES
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S BY AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NNW WINDS TODAY AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG IN
LOCAL VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY...WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN A MINOR INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD
WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GULF WITH SUNNY SKIES AND GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...IT STILL APPEARS AS IF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS -- ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE -- WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE STEADILY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONGER WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THE
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT -- WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ON THURSDAY. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WITH A VEERED LOW-LEVEL JET
OF ONLY 15-25 KNOTS. THIS COUPLED WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
AT BEST ARGUE FOR THE THREAT OF ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY PENETRATE
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WITH THE FIRST REAL
THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE COMING ON HALLOWEEN WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER TROF AXIS WAS ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER ATTM.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ARND 10Z/11Z BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE TN VALLEY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    74  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        74  45  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      74  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  71  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   73  45  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    74  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 240950
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
450 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THICK MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
THIS TROUGH -- WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES LATER TODAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A PACIFIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXPECT STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO RESULT IN A RAPID CLEARING TREND WITH SUNNY SKIES
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S BY AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NNW WINDS TODAY AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG IN
LOCAL VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY...WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN A MINOR INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD
WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GULF WITH SUNNY SKIES AND GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...IT STILL APPEARS AS IF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS -- ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE -- WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE STEADILY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONGER WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THE
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT -- WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ON THURSDAY. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WITH A VEERED LOW-LEVEL JET
OF ONLY 15-25 KNOTS. THIS COUPLED WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
AT BEST ARGUE FOR THE THREAT OF ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY PENETRATE
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WITH THE FIRST REAL
THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE COMING ON HALLOWEEN WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER TROF AXIS WAS ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER ATTM.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ARND 10Z/11Z BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE TN VALLEY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    74  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        74  45  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      74  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  71  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   73  45  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    74  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 240924
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
424 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE CAUSED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
EXTREMELY DRY BELOW THESE CLOUDS AS INDICATED BY VIRGA ON THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE RADAR VIEW. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH MILD NORTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE.

MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON SATURDAY AS A
RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO JUST A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF
RECORD LEVELS FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE MOISTURE TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FORCING MECHANISM...THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS
FORWARD PROGRESSION. WITH FORWARD SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
IN QUESTION...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW BROADBRUSHED 20 POPS ACROSS
THE CWA FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLIDING THROUGH RIGHT
NOW...CAUSING CIRRUS TO BE SCT TO BKN. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER
CLOSER TO 12Z AND CLEAR AFTER 18Z ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS.
VFR FOR THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  43  77  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    73  44  77  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  74  47  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  75  46  80  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      74  48  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      74  49  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  76  47  80  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        75  44  78  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/16






000
FXUS64 KMOB 240837
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA ATTM MOVES EAST...THE CLOUD OVER ASSOCIATED WITH
IT MOVES OFF...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN US ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST...TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO
BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND KEEP
THE FA UNDER LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

EVEN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD A BIT OVER THE
FA...AM EXPECTING THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO PUSH COOLER AIR
OVER THE FA AND KEEP TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL. /16

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
RESULTS IN A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING...
BUT LOWS WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AFTER THAT AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

A DEEP LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE MONDAY AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1.25-1.5 INCHES BY MIDWEEK...BUT THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SO WHILE
HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...WILL ONLY
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WED/THU AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO SEMI-ZONAL. ANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DELAYED
TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. /16

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  50  78  55  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  53  79  58  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  55  78  61  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  78  50  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  76  44  80  51  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      76  43  78  50  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  79  51  83 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 240531 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1231 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 837 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
AN UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR
SKY COVER. EXPECTING MRNG LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER NW AL TO THE MID
40S ELSEWHERE. 00Z U/A FROM OHX/BMX ARE VERY DRY THUS NOT EXPECTING
ANY PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MRNG
(AFTER 12Z) AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TN VALLEY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER TROF AXIS WAS ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER ATTM.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ARND 10Z/11Z BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE TN VALLEY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 240453 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
24.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH ONLY BROKEN TO
OCCASIONAL OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS (~15000 FEET) EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 24.17Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FROM OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SIGNAL ITS PASSAGE THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT. THIS INITIAL CLOUD CLOVER WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...AND
COUNTERACT THE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASED VIEW OF THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE FA...CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS UNDER LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /16

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYERS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND
OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING
FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. /16

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  77  49  77  55 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  78  53  78  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  76  55  77  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   42  77  43  77  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  43  76  45  79  51 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  77  43  78  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  78  42  79  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 240453 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
24.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH ONLY BROKEN TO
OCCASIONAL OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS (~15000 FEET) EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 24.17Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FROM OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SIGNAL ITS PASSAGE THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT. THIS INITIAL CLOUD CLOVER WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...AND
COUNTERACT THE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASED VIEW OF THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE FA...CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS UNDER LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /16

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYERS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND
OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING
FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. /16

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  77  49  77  55 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  78  53  78  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  76  55  77  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   42  77  43  77  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  43  76  45  79  51 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  77  43  78  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  78  42  79  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 240445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING WHICH HAS SLOWED THE RATE OF COOLING. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
AS THE WAVE PASSES. UPDATES ON THE WAY.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLIDING THROUGH RIGHT
NOW...CAUSING CIRRUS TO BE SCT TO BKN. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER
CLOSER TO 12Z AND CLEAR AFTER 18Z ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS.
VFR FOR THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 240254
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
954 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING WHICH HAS SLOWED THE RATE OF COOLING. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
AS THE WAVE PASSES. UPDATES ON THE WAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE FORECAST UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE.

08/MK


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 240254
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
954 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING WHICH HAS SLOWED THE RATE OF COOLING. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
AS THE WAVE PASSES. UPDATES ON THE WAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE FORECAST UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE.

08/MK


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 240137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
837 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND TWEAKED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR
SKY COVER. EXPECTING MRNG LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER NW AL TO THE MID
40S ELSEWHERE. 00Z U/A FROM OHX/BMX ARE VERY DRY THUS NOT EXPECTING
ANY PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MRNG
(AFTER 12Z) AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TN VALLEY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 556 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...5H TROF AXIS IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE TN RIVER.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 5H TROF WAS MAINLY BKN AC/CI CLOUDS. SINCE THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS VERY DRY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z
FRIDAY MRNG...EXPECT AC/CI CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH
ARKANSAS AS EVIDENCED BY QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTO
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS TO LESSEN TOWARD MORNING. DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT...HAVE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS TEMP
MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER UNTIL AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
PERIOD...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIGHTLY BUMP UP TEMPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME PERIODS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MOVE SOME WEAK 500
MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF MODEL MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH EXPECTED LESSENING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL STALLS OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN HAS THE
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS BEFORE SETTLING ON A FINAL SOLUTION INVOLVING THIS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 232329 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
629 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW UPPER 60S OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...JUST HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS BEING ADVERTISED A BIT
STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE 80S ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. WE COULD BE AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WE MIGHT ACTUALLY SEE
A FEW DROPS OF RAIN BEFORE WE GET INTO NOVEMBER. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENTER INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ENTERS INTO THE STATE IT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE FORECAST UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  72  44  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    41  73  45  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  74  48  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  43  75  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  74  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      46  74  49  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  45  77  48  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        42  76  44  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

56/08






000
FXUS64 KMOB 232326 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
24.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH ONLY BROKEN TO
OCCASIONAL OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS (~15000 FEET) EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 24.18Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FROM OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SIGNAL ITS PASSAGE THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT. THIS INITIAL CLOUD CLOVER WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...AND
COUNTERACT THE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASED VIEW OF THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE FA...CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS UNDER LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /16

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYERS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND
OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING
FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. /16

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  77  49  77  55 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  78  53  78  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  76  55  77  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   42  77  43  77  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  43  76  45  79  51 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  77  43  78  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  78  42  79  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 232256
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
556 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH
ARKANSAS AS EVIDENCED BY QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTO
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS TO LESSEN TOWARD MORNING. DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT...HAVE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS TEMP
MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER UNTIL AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
PERIOD...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIGHTLY BUMP UP TEMPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME PERIODS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MOVE SOME WEAK 500
MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF MODEL MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH EXPECTED LESSENING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL STALLS OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN HAS THE
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS BEFORE SETTLING ON A FINAL SOLUTION INVOLVING THIS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...5H TROF AXIS IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE TN RIVER.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 5H TROF WAS MAINLY BKN AC/CI CLOUDS. SINCE THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS VERY DRY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z
FRIDAY MRNG...EXPECT AC/CI CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 232046
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
346 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW UPPER 60S OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...JUST HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS BEING ADVERTISED A BIT
STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE 80S ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. WE COULD BE AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WE MIGHT ACTUALLY SEE
A FEW DROPS OF RAIN BEFORE WE GET INTO NOVEMBER. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENTER INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ENTERS INTO THE STATE IT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  72  44  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    41  73  45  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  74  48  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  43  75  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      46  74  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      46  74  49  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  45  77  48  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        42  76  44  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 232025
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FROM OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SIGNAL ITS PASSAGE THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT. THIS INITIAL CLOUD CLOVER WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...AND
COUNTERACT THE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASED VIEW OF THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE FA...CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS UNDER LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /16

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYERS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND
OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING
FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. /16

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  77  49  77  55 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  78  53  78  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  76  55  77  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   42  77  43  77  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  43  76  45  79  51 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  77  43  78  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  78  42  79  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 231951
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH
ARKANSAS AS EVIDENCED BY QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTO
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS TO LESSEN TOWARD MORNING. DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT...HAVE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS TEMP
MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER UNTIL AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
PERIOD...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIGHTLY BUMP UP TEMPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME PERIODS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MOVE SOME WEAK 500
MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF MODEL MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH EXPECTED LESSENING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL STALLS OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN HAS THE
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS BEFORE SETTLING ON A FINAL SOLUTION INVOLVING THIS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU 18Z/24. THE TAIL
END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL INCREASE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS
WILL NOT FALL BELOW 10KFT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP FOG AT BAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND LGT NNW FLOW WILL RESUME.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  70  46  77 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        43  71  46  79 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      45  70  46  76 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  42  67  45  75 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  70  43  74 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    42  72  44  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231951
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH
ARKANSAS AS EVIDENCED BY QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTO
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS TO LESSEN TOWARD MORNING. DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT...HAVE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS TEMP
MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER UNTIL AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
PERIOD...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIGHTLY BUMP UP TEMPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME PERIODS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MOVE SOME WEAK 500
MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF MODEL MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH EXPECTED LESSENING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL STALLS OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN HAS THE
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS BEFORE SETTLING ON A FINAL SOLUTION INVOLVING THIS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU 18Z/24. THE TAIL
END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL INCREASE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS
WILL NOT FALL BELOW 10KFT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP FOG AT BAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND LGT NNW FLOW WILL RESUME.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  70  46  77 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        43  71  46  79 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      45  70  46  76 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  42  67  45  75 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  70  43  74 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    42  72  44  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231732 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1059 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY YET AGAIN, BUT THERE IS A LITTLE MORE OF NOTE THIS
MORNING DUE TO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PUSHING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS, AND MISSOURI INDICATE LITTLE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CLOUDS DO GET LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE NOT
HAMPERED TEMPERATURES YET, THOUGH, AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S AFTER A CHILLY START.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY, AND BY THE END OF THE DAY,
SKY COVER WILL BE ALMOST COMPLETELY OVERCAST--BUT ALSO EXCLUSIVELY
ABOVE ROUGHLY 15-20,000 FT, PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. DEEP, VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP OR REACH THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MAXIMUM HEATING, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO, OR JUST UNDER YESTERDAY`S VALUES.

THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, BUT SKY COVER WILL BE UPDATED TO
REFLECT ONGOING SATELLITE AND OBSERVED TRENDS, AND WEATHER WILL BE
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF FOG AND FROST.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU 18Z/24. THE TAIL
END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL INCREASE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS
WILL NOT FALL BELOW 10KFT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP FOG AT BAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND LGT NNW FLOW WILL RESUME.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 231724
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE VERY
CRISP 30S AND 40S THAT WERE OBSERVED AT SUNRISE. PWATS ON THE 12Z
KBMX SOUNDING CAME IN AT 0.19 INCHES THIS MORNING...WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS THE VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD WILL ONLY IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
SPREADING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. UPDATES ARE
ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH.

32/DAVIS

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 231706 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1210 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AT
NOONTIME. TEMP CURVE ALSO ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
10Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AXIS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CWFA AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKING EASTWARD...MOVING
FROM E TX TO NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z FRI. WITH NO RETURN OR
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MAYBE A FEW EXTRA MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE SLIGHTLY
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE REGION
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANOTHER DAY OF NORMAL HIGHS (MID TO
UPPER 70S) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW NORMAL (MID
TO UPPER 40S) GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS
TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE BY
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-WED WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES ALSO INCREASING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT THEN REBUILD SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THOUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  49  77  48  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  54  77  52  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  56  76  54  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  76  43  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  74  43  76  44  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      74  42  76  44  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  78  41  80 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 231706 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1210 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AT
NOONTIME. TEMP CURVE ALSO ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
10Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AXIS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CWFA AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKING EASTWARD...MOVING
FROM E TX TO NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z FRI. WITH NO RETURN OR
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MAYBE A FEW EXTRA MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE SLIGHTLY
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE REGION
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANOTHER DAY OF NORMAL HIGHS (MID TO
UPPER 70S) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW NORMAL (MID
TO UPPER 40S) GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS
TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE BY
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-WED WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES ALSO INCREASING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT THEN REBUILD SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THOUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  49  77  48  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  54  77  52  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  56  76  54  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  76  43  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  74  43  76  44  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      74  42  76  44  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  78  41  80 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 231635
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE VERY
CRISP 30S AND 40S THAT WERE OBSERVED AT SUNRISE. PWATS ON THE 12Z
KBMX SOUNDING CAME IN AT 0.19 INCHES THIS MORNING...WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS THE VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD WILL ONLY IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
SPREADING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. UPDATES ARE
ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL A VERY NICE TAF CYCLE ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL WORK IN AFTER 00Z.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  40  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    70  41  73  45  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  70  45  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  43  75  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      70  46  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      71  46  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  73  45  77  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        72  42  76  44  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 231635
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE VERY
CRISP 30S AND 40S THAT WERE OBSERVED AT SUNRISE. PWATS ON THE 12Z
KBMX SOUNDING CAME IN AT 0.19 INCHES THIS MORNING...WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS THE VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD WILL ONLY IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
SPREADING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. UPDATES ARE
ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL A VERY NICE TAF CYCLE ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL WORK IN AFTER 00Z.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  40  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    70  41  73  45  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  70  45  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  43  75  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      70  46  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      71  46  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  73  45  77  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        72  42  76  44  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 231559 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1059 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FORTHCOMING TO SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY YET AGAIN, BUT THERE IS A LITTLE MORE OF NOTE THIS
MORNING DUE TO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PUSHING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS, AND MISSOURI INDICATE LITTLE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CLOUDS DO GET LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE NOT
HAMPERED TEMPERATURES YET, THOUGH, AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S AFTER A CHILLY START.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY, AND BY THE END OF THE DAY,
SKY COVER WILL BE ALMOST COMPLETELY OVERCAST--BUT ALSO EXCLUSIVELY
ABOVE ROUGHLY 15-20,000 FT, PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. DEEP, VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP OR REACH THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MAXIMUM HEATING, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO, OR JUST UNDER YESTERDAY`S VALUES.

THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, BUT SKY COVER WILL BE UPDATED TO
REFLECT ONGOING SATELLITE AND OBSERVED TRENDS, AND WEATHER WILL BE
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF FOG AND FROST.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/24. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING BUT THIS WILL RESULT
IN CIGS BTWN 12-15K FT. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION ATTM.

DJN.83

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH NORMALLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEING DISRUPTED BY LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS...WILL RETAIN PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AND PATCHY FROST FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA -- ALTHOUGH AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT BOTH AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A
WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER -- POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAINLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME...WEAK NATURE OF TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT
COUPLED WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR EVEN
SPRINKLES. DESPITE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND SHALLOW MIXING LAYER WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CONVERSELY...LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON
EXPECTED AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER -- WITH THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG BEING
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS BY
3-7 DEGREES. WITH SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A HIGHER THREAT FOR FOG WILL EXIST IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN FORECASTING THE CENTER OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY MORNING -- AS A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS...EXPECT GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
SHEAR APART AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS -- AND ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE RATHER WEAK WE WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GRIDS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THEN A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231559 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1059 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FORTHCOMING TO SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY YET AGAIN, BUT THERE IS A LITTLE MORE OF NOTE THIS
MORNING DUE TO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PUSHING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS, AND MISSOURI INDICATE LITTLE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CLOUDS DO GET LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE NOT
HAMPERED TEMPERATURES YET, THOUGH, AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S AFTER A CHILLY START.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY, AND BY THE END OF THE DAY,
SKY COVER WILL BE ALMOST COMPLETELY OVERCAST--BUT ALSO EXCLUSIVELY
ABOVE ROUGHLY 15-20,000 FT, PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. DEEP, VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP OR REACH THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MAXIMUM HEATING, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO, OR JUST UNDER YESTERDAY`S VALUES.

THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, BUT SKY COVER WILL BE UPDATED TO
REFLECT ONGOING SATELLITE AND OBSERVED TRENDS, AND WEATHER WILL BE
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF FOG AND FROST.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/24. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING BUT THIS WILL RESULT
IN CIGS BTWN 12-15K FT. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION ATTM.

DJN.83

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH NORMALLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEING DISRUPTED BY LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS...WILL RETAIN PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AND PATCHY FROST FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA -- ALTHOUGH AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT BOTH AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A
WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER -- POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAINLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME...WEAK NATURE OF TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT
COUPLED WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR EVEN
SPRINKLES. DESPITE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND SHALLOW MIXING LAYER WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CONVERSELY...LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON
EXPECTED AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER -- WITH THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG BEING
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS BY
3-7 DEGREES. WITH SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A HIGHER THREAT FOR FOG WILL EXIST IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN FORECASTING THE CENTER OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY MORNING -- AS A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS...EXPECT GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
SHEAR APART AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS -- AND ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE RATHER WEAK WE WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GRIDS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THEN A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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