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000
FXUS64 KHUN 251123 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/
A MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOW
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS TRANSLATED TO
VERY PLEASANT EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS FOR LATE
JULY...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG LEADING TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE -- TO BUILD
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PRONOUNCED INVERSION IN THE 850-800 MB LAYER...WHICH WILL WORK
IN TANDEM WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO A SILENT 5 PERCENT. A COUPLE OF WEAK VORTICES DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS COVER TO THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT WE ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS REASONING...HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO AROUND 90 FOR ALL BUT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...
WHEN A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST A GLANCING IMPACT FROM A WELL-
DEFINED VORTICITY MAX...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS/MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE OR ITS REMNANTS MAY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
UVM TO ERODE THE CAP -- ESPECIALLY AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AND LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THUS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAMBUFR/GFSBUFR/ECMWF INDEED SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING
AND LIFTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY HIGH IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... IFR/MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR RAPIDLY
BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT FLOW ARE ANTICIPATED THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251123 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/
A MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOW
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS TRANSLATED TO
VERY PLEASANT EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS FOR LATE
JULY...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG LEADING TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE -- TO BUILD
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PRONOUNCED INVERSION IN THE 850-800 MB LAYER...WHICH WILL WORK
IN TANDEM WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO A SILENT 5 PERCENT. A COUPLE OF WEAK VORTICES DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS COVER TO THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT WE ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS REASONING...HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO AROUND 90 FOR ALL BUT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...
WHEN A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST A GLANCING IMPACT FROM A WELL-
DEFINED VORTICITY MAX...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS/MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE OR ITS REMNANTS MAY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
UVM TO ERODE THE CAP -- ESPECIALLY AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AND LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THUS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAMBUFR/GFSBUFR/ECMWF INDEED SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING
AND LIFTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY HIGH IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... IFR/MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR RAPIDLY
BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT FLOW ARE ANTICIPATED THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251123 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/
A MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOW
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS TRANSLATED TO
VERY PLEASANT EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS FOR LATE
JULY...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG LEADING TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE -- TO BUILD
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PRONOUNCED INVERSION IN THE 850-800 MB LAYER...WHICH WILL WORK
IN TANDEM WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO A SILENT 5 PERCENT. A COUPLE OF WEAK VORTICES DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS COVER TO THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT WE ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS REASONING...HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO AROUND 90 FOR ALL BUT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...
WHEN A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST A GLANCING IMPACT FROM A WELL-
DEFINED VORTICITY MAX...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS/MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE OR ITS REMNANTS MAY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
UVM TO ERODE THE CAP -- ESPECIALLY AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AND LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THUS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAMBUFR/GFSBUFR/ECMWF INDEED SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING
AND LIFTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY HIGH IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... IFR/MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR RAPIDLY
BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT FLOW ARE ANTICIPATED THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251123 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/
A MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOW
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS TRANSLATED TO
VERY PLEASANT EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS FOR LATE
JULY...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG LEADING TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE -- TO BUILD
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PRONOUNCED INVERSION IN THE 850-800 MB LAYER...WHICH WILL WORK
IN TANDEM WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO A SILENT 5 PERCENT. A COUPLE OF WEAK VORTICES DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS COVER TO THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT WE ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS REASONING...HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO AROUND 90 FOR ALL BUT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...
WHEN A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST A GLANCING IMPACT FROM A WELL-
DEFINED VORTICITY MAX...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS/MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE OR ITS REMNANTS MAY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
UVM TO ERODE THE CAP -- ESPECIALLY AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AND LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THUS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAMBUFR/GFSBUFR/ECMWF INDEED SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING
AND LIFTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY HIGH IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... IFR/MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR RAPIDLY
BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT FLOW ARE ANTICIPATED THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 250955
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BEACHES.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ONLY
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK TROF ALOFT PERSISTS BUT MOVES
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND UPPER RIDGING INCREASES SLIGHTLY
OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THE DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY BECOMES LESS
DEFINED...BUT STILL PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE SLIGHT RIDGING
ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED A LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
WE WILL BE LOOKING MORE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGING SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUT NEAR 90
AT THE BEACHES). SATURDAY LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S COASTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND LIKELY PUSH SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND
OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A INCREASED CHANCE
AGAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN LOW TO NO
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
STILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MAX TEMPS DROP TO THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH...BUT COOLING TO
NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 60S) FOR SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (25.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN
SEAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  74  91  75  92 /  40  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  78  92 /  40  20  30  20  10
DESTIN      87  78  87  80  87 /  40  20  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  71  93  73  93 /  30  20  30  10  20
WAYNESBORO  93  69  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  10  20
CAMDEN      93  70  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
CRESTVIEW   93  73  94  73  94 /  40  20  30  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 250955
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BEACHES.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ONLY
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK TROF ALOFT PERSISTS BUT MOVES
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND UPPER RIDGING INCREASES SLIGHTLY
OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THE DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY BECOMES LESS
DEFINED...BUT STILL PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE SLIGHT RIDGING
ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED A LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
WE WILL BE LOOKING MORE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGING SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUT NEAR 90
AT THE BEACHES). SATURDAY LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S COASTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND LIKELY PUSH SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND
OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A INCREASED CHANCE
AGAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN LOW TO NO
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
STILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MAX TEMPS DROP TO THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH...BUT COOLING TO
NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 60S) FOR SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (25.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN
SEAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  74  91  75  92 /  40  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  78  92 /  40  20  30  20  10
DESTIN      87  78  87  80  87 /  40  20  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  71  93  73  93 /  30  20  30  10  20
WAYNESBORO  93  69  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  10  20
CAMDEN      93  70  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
CRESTVIEW   93  73  94  73  94 /  40  20  30  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 250955
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BEACHES.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ONLY
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK TROF ALOFT PERSISTS BUT MOVES
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND UPPER RIDGING INCREASES SLIGHTLY
OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THE DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY BECOMES LESS
DEFINED...BUT STILL PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE SLIGHT RIDGING
ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED A LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
WE WILL BE LOOKING MORE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGING SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUT NEAR 90
AT THE BEACHES). SATURDAY LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S COASTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND LIKELY PUSH SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND
OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A INCREASED CHANCE
AGAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN LOW TO NO
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
STILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MAX TEMPS DROP TO THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH...BUT COOLING TO
NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 60S) FOR SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (25.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN
SEAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  74  91  75  92 /  40  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  78  92 /  40  20  30  20  10
DESTIN      87  78  87  80  87 /  40  20  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  71  93  73  93 /  30  20  30  10  20
WAYNESBORO  93  69  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  10  20
CAMDEN      93  70  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
CRESTVIEW   93  73  94  73  94 /  40  20  30  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 250955
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BEACHES.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ONLY
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK TROF ALOFT PERSISTS BUT MOVES
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND UPPER RIDGING INCREASES SLIGHTLY
OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THE DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY BECOMES LESS
DEFINED...BUT STILL PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE SLIGHT RIDGING
ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED A LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
WE WILL BE LOOKING MORE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGING SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUT NEAR 90
AT THE BEACHES). SATURDAY LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S COASTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND LIKELY PUSH SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND
OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A INCREASED CHANCE
AGAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN LOW TO NO
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
STILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MAX TEMPS DROP TO THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH...BUT COOLING TO
NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 60S) FOR SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (25.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN
SEAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  74  91  75  92 /  40  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  78  92 /  40  20  30  20  10
DESTIN      87  78  87  80  87 /  40  20  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  71  93  73  93 /  30  20  30  10  20
WAYNESBORO  93  69  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  10  20
CAMDEN      93  70  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
CRESTVIEW   93  73  94  73  94 /  40  20  30  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250940
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
440 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOW
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS TRANSLATED TO
VERY PLEASANT EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS FOR LATE
JULY...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG LEADING TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE -- TO BUILD
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PRONOUNCED INVERSION IN THE 850-800 MB LAYER...WHICH WILL WORK
IN TANDEM WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO A SILENT 5 PERCENT. A COUPLE OF WEAK VORTICES DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS COVER TO THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT WE ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS REASONING...HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO AROUND 90 FOR ALL BUT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...
WHEN A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST A GLANCING IMPACT FROM A WELL-
DEFINED VORTICITY MAX...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS/MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE OR ITS REMNANTS MAY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
UVM TO ERODE THE CAP -- ESPECIALLY AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AND LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THUS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAMBUFR/GFSBUFR/ECMWF INDEED SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING
AND LIFTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY HIGH IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE: CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE IS
(AND THE DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL INCLUDE
A TEMPO MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS ARND
25KFT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    89  66  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        90  63  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      89  63  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  87  62  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   88  63  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    89  63  92  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250940
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
440 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOW
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS TRANSLATED TO
VERY PLEASANT EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS FOR LATE
JULY...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG LEADING TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE -- TO BUILD
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PRONOUNCED INVERSION IN THE 850-800 MB LAYER...WHICH WILL WORK
IN TANDEM WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO A SILENT 5 PERCENT. A COUPLE OF WEAK VORTICES DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS COVER TO THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT WE ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS REASONING...HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO AROUND 90 FOR ALL BUT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...
WHEN A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST A GLANCING IMPACT FROM A WELL-
DEFINED VORTICITY MAX...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS/MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE OR ITS REMNANTS MAY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
UVM TO ERODE THE CAP -- ESPECIALLY AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AND LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THUS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAMBUFR/GFSBUFR/ECMWF INDEED SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING
AND LIFTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY HIGH IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE: CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE IS
(AND THE DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL INCLUDE
A TEMPO MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS ARND
25KFT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    89  66  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        90  63  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      89  63  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  87  62  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   88  63  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    89  63  92  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 250822
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. EVERYTHING STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR A WARMER
WEEKEND AND A COOLER WORK WEEK COMING UP.

FOR TODAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE HEART OF THE STATE IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE DAY IS THOSE LOCATIONS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL THIS
MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM 87 TO 91.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH SUPPRESSING ANY RAINFALL TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID
90S. WARM NIGHTS TOO WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE LOWER AND MID
70S.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT STILL LOOK BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S.
ASSUMING THE FRONT GETS PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF...RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK ARE PRETTY MUCH NIL. THERE MIGHT BE
SOME EASTERLY FLOW SET UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THAT COULD BRING IN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE THE CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM 08 TO 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL FOGGY LOCATIONS OF KEET
...KTOI...AND KANB. NOT AS CONFIDENT FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE BUT MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
SURFACE TO WARRANT AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR EXCEPT FOR KBHM. NORTHERN
TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE VCSH IS STILL WARRANTED FOR KMGM AND KTOI
NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  92  72  91 /  10   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    89  70  92  73  92 /  10   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  92  74  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  94  73  92 /  10   0  10  10  10
CALERA      89  71  92  74  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      88  72  92  73  92 /  40  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  91  72  93  74  93 /  40  10  10  10  20
TROY        89  72  92  73  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 250822
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. EVERYTHING STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR A WARMER
WEEKEND AND A COOLER WORK WEEK COMING UP.

FOR TODAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE HEART OF THE STATE IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE DAY IS THOSE LOCATIONS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL THIS
MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM 87 TO 91.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH SUPPRESSING ANY RAINFALL TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID
90S. WARM NIGHTS TOO WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE LOWER AND MID
70S.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT STILL LOOK BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S.
ASSUMING THE FRONT GETS PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF...RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK ARE PRETTY MUCH NIL. THERE MIGHT BE
SOME EASTERLY FLOW SET UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THAT COULD BRING IN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE THE CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM 08 TO 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL FOGGY LOCATIONS OF KEET
...KTOI...AND KANB. NOT AS CONFIDENT FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE BUT MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
SURFACE TO WARRANT AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR EXCEPT FOR KBHM. NORTHERN
TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE VCSH IS STILL WARRANTED FOR KMGM AND KTOI
NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  92  72  91 /  10   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    89  70  92  73  92 /  10   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  92  74  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  94  73  92 /  10   0  10  10  10
CALERA      89  71  92  74  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      88  72  92  73  92 /  40  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  91  72  93  74  93 /  40  10  10  10  20
TROY        89  72  92  73  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 250532 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 849 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
A NICE EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S IN A FEW SPOTS, WITH DRIER AIR NOTED UPSTREAM ON
THE TN/KY BORDER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW
IN THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THIS DRIER AIR INTO THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.

AS SUCH, NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NECESSARY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
HOURLY WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE SKY/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT (CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND POPS DECREASED TO ZERO). OTHERWISE, THE ONLY FORECAST
CONUNDRUM TONIGHT CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. INHERITED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FROM THE DAYSHIFT, AND
IT WILL HONESTLY BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT FOG WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD (NOR AS DENSE) AS LAST
NIGHT, SO WILL RETAIN THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW (AND WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT IF NECESSARY).

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE: CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AT
BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE IS (AND THE
DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS ARND 25KFT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS TIME
TOMORROW.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250532 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 849 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
A NICE EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S IN A FEW SPOTS, WITH DRIER AIR NOTED UPSTREAM ON
THE TN/KY BORDER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW
IN THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THIS DRIER AIR INTO THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.

AS SUCH, NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NECESSARY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
HOURLY WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE SKY/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT (CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND POPS DECREASED TO ZERO). OTHERWISE, THE ONLY FORECAST
CONUNDRUM TONIGHT CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. INHERITED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FROM THE DAYSHIFT, AND
IT WILL HONESTLY BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT FOG WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD (NOR AS DENSE) AS LAST
NIGHT, SO WILL RETAIN THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW (AND WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT IF NECESSARY).

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE: CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AT
BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE IS (AND THE
DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS ARND
25KFT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 250532 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 849 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
A NICE EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S IN A FEW SPOTS, WITH DRIER AIR NOTED UPSTREAM ON
THE TN/KY BORDER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW
IN THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THIS DRIER AIR INTO THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.

AS SUCH, NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NECESSARY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
HOURLY WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE SKY/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT (CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND POPS DECREASED TO ZERO). OTHERWISE, THE ONLY FORECAST
CONUNDRUM TONIGHT CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. INHERITED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FROM THE DAYSHIFT, AND
IT WILL HONESTLY BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT FOG WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD (NOR AS DENSE) AS LAST
NIGHT, SO WILL RETAIN THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW (AND WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT IF NECESSARY).

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE: CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AT
BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE IS (AND THE
DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS ARND
25KFT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 250532 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 849 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
A NICE EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S IN A FEW SPOTS, WITH DRIER AIR NOTED UPSTREAM ON
THE TN/KY BORDER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW
IN THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THIS DRIER AIR INTO THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.

AS SUCH, NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NECESSARY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
HOURLY WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE SKY/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT (CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND POPS DECREASED TO ZERO). OTHERWISE, THE ONLY FORECAST
CONUNDRUM TONIGHT CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. INHERITED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FROM THE DAYSHIFT, AND
IT WILL HONESTLY BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT FOG WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD (NOR AS DENSE) AS LAST
NIGHT, SO WILL RETAIN THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW (AND WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT IF NECESSARY).

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE: CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AT
BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE IS (AND THE
DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS ARND
25KFT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 250532 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 849 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
A NICE EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S IN A FEW SPOTS, WITH DRIER AIR NOTED UPSTREAM ON
THE TN/KY BORDER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW
IN THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THIS DRIER AIR INTO THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.

AS SUCH, NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NECESSARY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
HOURLY WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE SKY/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT (CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND POPS DECREASED TO ZERO). OTHERWISE, THE ONLY FORECAST
CONUNDRUM TONIGHT CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. INHERITED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FROM THE DAYSHIFT, AND
IT WILL HONESTLY BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT FOG WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD (NOR AS DENSE) AS LAST
NIGHT, SO WILL RETAIN THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW (AND WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT IF NECESSARY).

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE: CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AT
BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE IS (AND THE
DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS ARND
25KFT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 250532 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 849 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
A NICE EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S IN A FEW SPOTS, WITH DRIER AIR NOTED UPSTREAM ON
THE TN/KY BORDER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW
IN THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THIS DRIER AIR INTO THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.

AS SUCH, NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NECESSARY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
HOURLY WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE SKY/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT (CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND POPS DECREASED TO ZERO). OTHERWISE, THE ONLY FORECAST
CONUNDRUM TONIGHT CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. INHERITED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FROM THE DAYSHIFT, AND
IT WILL HONESTLY BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT FOG WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD (NOR AS DENSE) AS LAST
NIGHT, SO WILL RETAIN THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW (AND WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT IF NECESSARY).

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE: CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AT
BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE IS (AND THE
DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS ARND 25KFT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS TIME
TOMORROW.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 250517
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1217 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS 40-50 MILES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WAS WHERE MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOW DIMINISHED...BUT A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH...SO LEFT A SMALL MENTION.

MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THICKNESSES REALLY DO NOT INDICATE A
GREAT SOUTHERLY PUSH OF COOLER OR DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT FIRST AND THEN ONLY INCHES INTO NORTHERN
AREAS AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z BMX RAOB ALSO HAS QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED FROM NEAR SURFACE TO NEAR 700 MB OVERNIGHT. WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SLOWLY EXITING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. THEREFORE...OVERNIGHT FOG AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE RATHER TRICKY. MENTION PATCHY FOG AT ALL LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT BUT REDUCED WORDING A BIT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
SOME FOG MAY BECOME DENSE BUT IT WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED IN
NATURE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE THE CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM 08 TO 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL FOGGY LOCATIONS OF KEET
...KTOI...AND KANB. NOT AS CONFIDENT FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE BUT MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
SURFACE TO WARRANT AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR EXCEPT FOR KBHM. NORTHERN
TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE VCSH IS STILL WARRANTED FOR KMGM AND KTOI
NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  92  71  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    89  70  92  72  93 /  20   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  92  73  94 /  10   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10  10
CALERA      89  71  92  73  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      88  72  92  72  92 /  30  20  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  91  72  93  73  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
TROY        89  72  92  72  93 /  30  30  20  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 250517
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1217 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS 40-50 MILES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WAS WHERE MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOW DIMINISHED...BUT A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH...SO LEFT A SMALL MENTION.

MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THICKNESSES REALLY DO NOT INDICATE A
GREAT SOUTHERLY PUSH OF COOLER OR DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT FIRST AND THEN ONLY INCHES INTO NORTHERN
AREAS AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z BMX RAOB ALSO HAS QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED FROM NEAR SURFACE TO NEAR 700 MB OVERNIGHT. WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SLOWLY EXITING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. THEREFORE...OVERNIGHT FOG AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE RATHER TRICKY. MENTION PATCHY FOG AT ALL LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT BUT REDUCED WORDING A BIT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
SOME FOG MAY BECOME DENSE BUT IT WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED IN
NATURE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE THE CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM 08 TO 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL FOGGY LOCATIONS OF KEET
...KTOI...AND KANB. NOT AS CONFIDENT FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE BUT MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
SURFACE TO WARRANT AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR EXCEPT FOR KBHM. NORTHERN
TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE VCSH IS STILL WARRANTED FOR KMGM AND KTOI
NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  92  71  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    89  70  92  72  93 /  20   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  92  73  94 /  10   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10  10
CALERA      89  71  92  73  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      88  72  92  72  92 /  30  20  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  91  72  93  73  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
TROY        89  72  92  72  93 /  30  30  20  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 250457 AAD
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HAVE STAYED WITH VCSH STARTING AT THE TAF
SITES BY 10Z THEN VCTS FOLLOWS BY 16Z.  HAVE ALSO STAYED WITH A
PROB30 GROUP FROM 18-22Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  20  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  20  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 250457 AAD
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HAVE STAYED WITH VCSH STARTING AT THE TAF
SITES BY 10Z THEN VCTS FOLLOWS BY 16Z.  HAVE ALSO STAYED WITH A
PROB30 GROUP FROM 18-22Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  20  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  20  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 250448 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO EXTEND SMALL POPS LATER INTO THE NIGHT OVER
INTERIOR AREAS WITH OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATE OUT SOON. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  20  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  20  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 250307
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1007 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS 40-50 MILES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WAS WHERE MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOW DIMINISHED...BUT A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH...SO LEFT A SMALL MENTION.

MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THICKNESSES REALLY DO NOT INDICATE A
GREAT SOUTHERLY PUSH OF COOLER OR DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT FIRST AND THEN ONLY INCHES INTO NORTHERN
AREAS AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z BMX RAOB ALSO HAS QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED FROM NEAR SURFACE TO NEAR 700 MB OVERNIGHT. WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SLOWLY EXITING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. THEREFORE...OVERNIGHT FOG AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE RATHER TRICKY. MENTION PATCHY FOG AT ALL LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT BUT REDUCED WORDING A BIT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
SOME FOG MAY BECOME DENSE BUT IT WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED IN
NATURE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT
NOW CLEAR OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG FORMATION DUE TO THE DRY
AIR NOT COMPLETELY FILTERING IN FAST ENOUGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT. FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI...VCTS REMAINS
IN THE TAF THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT...THEN
THE THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE VALUES
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINALS SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH MORE MOISTURE
REMAINING SOUTH NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE
TAF FOR NOW AT KMGM AND KTOI THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

56/GDG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

A COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED NEAR THE I-59
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND
WHERE MOISTURE POOLING HAS OCCURRED. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT...POST-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING
SOMEWHERE NEAR MONTGOMERY OR CLANTON OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE DEEP-LAYER DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FOR FRIDAY WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE A BIT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 500MB
HEIGHT RISES OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS A RESULT...WITH 90S RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINE AS
25-35 KT 500MB WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  88  69  92  71 /  10  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    68  89  70  92  72 /  10  20   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  89  71  92  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  91  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      70  89  71  92  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      70  88  72  92  72 /  20  30  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  91  72  93  73 /  20  30  20  10  10
TROY        70  89  72  92  72 /  20  30  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 250307
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1007 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS 40-50 MILES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WAS WHERE MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOW DIMINISHED...BUT A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH...SO LEFT A SMALL MENTION.

MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THICKNESSES REALLY DO NOT INDICATE A
GREAT SOUTHERLY PUSH OF COOLER OR DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT FIRST AND THEN ONLY INCHES INTO NORTHERN
AREAS AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z BMX RAOB ALSO HAS QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED FROM NEAR SURFACE TO NEAR 700 MB OVERNIGHT. WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SLOWLY EXITING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. THEREFORE...OVERNIGHT FOG AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE RATHER TRICKY. MENTION PATCHY FOG AT ALL LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT BUT REDUCED WORDING A BIT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
SOME FOG MAY BECOME DENSE BUT IT WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED IN
NATURE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT
NOW CLEAR OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG FORMATION DUE TO THE DRY
AIR NOT COMPLETELY FILTERING IN FAST ENOUGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT. FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI...VCTS REMAINS
IN THE TAF THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT...THEN
THE THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE VALUES
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINALS SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH MORE MOISTURE
REMAINING SOUTH NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE
TAF FOR NOW AT KMGM AND KTOI THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

56/GDG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

A COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED NEAR THE I-59
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND
WHERE MOISTURE POOLING HAS OCCURRED. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT...POST-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING
SOMEWHERE NEAR MONTGOMERY OR CLANTON OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE DEEP-LAYER DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FOR FRIDAY WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE A BIT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 500MB
HEIGHT RISES OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS A RESULT...WITH 90S RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINE AS
25-35 KT 500MB WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  88  69  92  71 /  10  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    68  89  70  92  72 /  10  20   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  89  71  92  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  91  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      70  89  71  92  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      70  88  72  92  72 /  20  30  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  91  72  93  73 /  20  30  20  10  10
TROY        70  89  72  92  72 /  20  30  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 250307
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1007 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS 40-50 MILES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WAS WHERE MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOW DIMINISHED...BUT A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH...SO LEFT A SMALL MENTION.

MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THICKNESSES REALLY DO NOT INDICATE A
GREAT SOUTHERLY PUSH OF COOLER OR DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT FIRST AND THEN ONLY INCHES INTO NORTHERN
AREAS AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z BMX RAOB ALSO HAS QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED FROM NEAR SURFACE TO NEAR 700 MB OVERNIGHT. WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SLOWLY EXITING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. THEREFORE...OVERNIGHT FOG AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE RATHER TRICKY. MENTION PATCHY FOG AT ALL LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT BUT REDUCED WORDING A BIT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
SOME FOG MAY BECOME DENSE BUT IT WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED IN
NATURE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT
NOW CLEAR OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG FORMATION DUE TO THE DRY
AIR NOT COMPLETELY FILTERING IN FAST ENOUGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT. FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI...VCTS REMAINS
IN THE TAF THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT...THEN
THE THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE VALUES
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINALS SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH MORE MOISTURE
REMAINING SOUTH NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE
TAF FOR NOW AT KMGM AND KTOI THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

56/GDG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

A COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED NEAR THE I-59
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND
WHERE MOISTURE POOLING HAS OCCURRED. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT...POST-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING
SOMEWHERE NEAR MONTGOMERY OR CLANTON OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE DEEP-LAYER DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FOR FRIDAY WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE A BIT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 500MB
HEIGHT RISES OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS A RESULT...WITH 90S RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINE AS
25-35 KT 500MB WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  88  69  92  71 /  10  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    68  89  70  92  72 /  10  20   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  89  71  92  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  91  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      70  89  71  92  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      70  88  72  92  72 /  20  30  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  91  72  93  73 /  20  30  20  10  10
TROY        70  89  72  92  72 /  20  30  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 250307
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1007 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS 40-50 MILES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WAS WHERE MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOW DIMINISHED...BUT A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH...SO LEFT A SMALL MENTION.

MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THICKNESSES REALLY DO NOT INDICATE A
GREAT SOUTHERLY PUSH OF COOLER OR DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT FIRST AND THEN ONLY INCHES INTO NORTHERN
AREAS AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z BMX RAOB ALSO HAS QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED FROM NEAR SURFACE TO NEAR 700 MB OVERNIGHT. WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SLOWLY EXITING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. THEREFORE...OVERNIGHT FOG AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE RATHER TRICKY. MENTION PATCHY FOG AT ALL LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT BUT REDUCED WORDING A BIT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
SOME FOG MAY BECOME DENSE BUT IT WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED IN
NATURE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT
NOW CLEAR OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG FORMATION DUE TO THE DRY
AIR NOT COMPLETELY FILTERING IN FAST ENOUGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT. FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI...VCTS REMAINS
IN THE TAF THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT...THEN
THE THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE VALUES
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINALS SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH MORE MOISTURE
REMAINING SOUTH NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE
TAF FOR NOW AT KMGM AND KTOI THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

56/GDG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

A COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED NEAR THE I-59
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND
WHERE MOISTURE POOLING HAS OCCURRED. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT...POST-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING
SOMEWHERE NEAR MONTGOMERY OR CLANTON OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE DEEP-LAYER DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FOR FRIDAY WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE A BIT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 500MB
HEIGHT RISES OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS A RESULT...WITH 90S RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINE AS
25-35 KT 500MB WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  88  69  92  71 /  10  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    68  89  70  92  72 /  10  20   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  89  71  92  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  91  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      70  89  71  92  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      70  88  72  92  72 /  20  30  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  91  72  93  73 /  20  30  20  10  10
TROY        70  89  72  92  72 /  20  30  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 250149
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
849 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S IN A FEW SPOTS, WITH DRIER AIR NOTED UPSTREAM ON
THE TN/KY BORDER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW
IN THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THIS DRIER AIR INTO THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.

AS SUCH, NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NECESSARY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
HOURLY WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE SKY/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT (CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND POPS DECREASED TO ZERO). OTHERWISE, THE ONLY FORECAST
CONUNDRUM TONIGHT CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. INHERITED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FROM THE DAYSHIFT, AND
IT WILL HONESTLY BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT FOG WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD (NOR AS DENSE) AS LAST
NIGHT, SO WILL RETAIN THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW (AND WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT IF NECESSARY).

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD
THE COVERAGE IS (AND THE DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER
AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR
NOW, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THIS
OCCURRENCE AND REASSESS THE THREAT WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE. ONCE THE
FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, VFR CONDS AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250149
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
849 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S IN A FEW SPOTS, WITH DRIER AIR NOTED UPSTREAM ON
THE TN/KY BORDER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW
IN THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THIS DRIER AIR INTO THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.

AS SUCH, NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NECESSARY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
HOURLY WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE SKY/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT (CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND POPS DECREASED TO ZERO). OTHERWISE, THE ONLY FORECAST
CONUNDRUM TONIGHT CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. INHERITED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FROM THE DAYSHIFT, AND
IT WILL HONESTLY BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT FOG WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD (NOR AS DENSE) AS LAST
NIGHT, SO WILL RETAIN THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW (AND WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT IF NECESSARY).

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD
THE COVERAGE IS (AND THE DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER
AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR
NOW, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THIS
OCCURRENCE AND REASSESS THE THREAT WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE. ONCE THE
FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, VFR CONDS AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250149
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
849 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S IN A FEW SPOTS, WITH DRIER AIR NOTED UPSTREAM ON
THE TN/KY BORDER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW
IN THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THIS DRIER AIR INTO THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.

AS SUCH, NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NECESSARY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
HOURLY WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE SKY/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT (CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND POPS DECREASED TO ZERO). OTHERWISE, THE ONLY FORECAST
CONUNDRUM TONIGHT CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. INHERITED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FROM THE DAYSHIFT, AND
IT WILL HONESTLY BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT FOG WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD (NOR AS DENSE) AS LAST
NIGHT, SO WILL RETAIN THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW (AND WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT IF NECESSARY).

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD
THE COVERAGE IS (AND THE DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER
AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR
NOW, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THIS
OCCURRENCE AND REASSESS THE THREAT WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE. ONCE THE
FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, VFR CONDS AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250149
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
849 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S IN A FEW SPOTS, WITH DRIER AIR NOTED UPSTREAM ON
THE TN/KY BORDER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW
IN THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THIS DRIER AIR INTO THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.

AS SUCH, NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NECESSARY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
HOURLY WX ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE SKY/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT (CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND POPS DECREASED TO ZERO). OTHERWISE, THE ONLY FORECAST
CONUNDRUM TONIGHT CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. INHERITED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FROM THE DAYSHIFT, AND
IT WILL HONESTLY BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT FOG WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD (NOR AS DENSE) AS LAST
NIGHT, SO WILL RETAIN THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW (AND WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT IF NECESSARY).

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD
THE COVERAGE IS (AND THE DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER
AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR
NOW, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THIS
OCCURRENCE AND REASSESS THE THREAT WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE. ONCE THE
FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, VFR CONDS AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 250103 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
802 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INTERIOR
AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND REMOVE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP SMALL POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  UPDATE
OUT SOON. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  20  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  20  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 250103 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
802 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INTERIOR
AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND REMOVE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP SMALL POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  UPDATE
OUT SOON. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  20  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  20  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 250103 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
802 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INTERIOR
AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND REMOVE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP SMALL POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  UPDATE
OUT SOON. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  20  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  20  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 250103 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
802 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INTERIOR
AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND REMOVE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP SMALL POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  UPDATE
OUT SOON. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  20  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  20  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 250102 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
802 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND REMOVE POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
HAVE MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  UPDATE OUT SOON. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  20  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  20  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  10  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 250011 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
711 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 212 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
SOME LINGERING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS IN MOST LOCATIONS. IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS PRETTY HARD
TONIGHT. SINCE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVENING OR MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE FOG COVERAGE OR DENSITY MORE...BUT FOR NOW HOLDING THE
CONSERVATIVE ROUTE IN GRIDS.

ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...THE VERY STRONG 596 MB UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. MODELS PROG 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING TO
AROUND 580 MB BY SATURDAY AND THEN 582 MB BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN HOT CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...DESPITE A FRONT HAVING JUST PASSED THROUGH AREA
RECENTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUST UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BELIEVE HIGHS WILL REACH 95 TO 97 DEGREES DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 98 OR 99 AT KMSL ON SUNDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND AROUND 100 DEGREES DURING THAT TIMEFRAME...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SUNDAY COULD
APPROACH 105 DEGREES. SO BE PREPARED AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS OVER
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF YOU PLAN TO EXERCISE OR WORK OUTSIDE.

LUCKILY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SECOND...LIKELY STRONGER...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIT MORE SHEAR AND WIND
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONGER AND MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
FRONT LOOKS MORE SUBSTANTIAL AS WELL...SO COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS A RESULT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING MOSTLY BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD
THE COVERAGE IS (AND THE DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER
AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR
NOW, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THIS
OCCURRENCE AND REASSESS THE THREAT WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE. ONCE THE
FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, VFR CONDS AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 250011 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
711 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 212 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
SOME LINGERING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS IN MOST LOCATIONS. IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS PRETTY HARD
TONIGHT. SINCE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVENING OR MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE FOG COVERAGE OR DENSITY MORE...BUT FOR NOW HOLDING THE
CONSERVATIVE ROUTE IN GRIDS.

ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...THE VERY STRONG 596 MB UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. MODELS PROG 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING TO
AROUND 580 MB BY SATURDAY AND THEN 582 MB BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN HOT CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...DESPITE A FRONT HAVING JUST PASSED THROUGH AREA
RECENTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUST UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BELIEVE HIGHS WILL REACH 95 TO 97 DEGREES DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 98 OR 99 AT KMSL ON SUNDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND AROUND 100 DEGREES DURING THAT TIMEFRAME...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SUNDAY COULD
APPROACH 105 DEGREES. SO BE PREPARED AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS OVER
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF YOU PLAN TO EXERCISE OR WORK OUTSIDE.

LUCKILY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SECOND...LIKELY STRONGER...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIT MORE SHEAR AND WIND
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONGER AND MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
FRONT LOOKS MORE SUBSTANTIAL AS WELL...SO COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS A RESULT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING MOSTLY BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD
THE COVERAGE IS (AND THE DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER
AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR
NOW, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THIS
OCCURRENCE AND REASSESS THE THREAT WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE. ONCE THE
FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, VFR CONDS AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 242356
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
656 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED NEAR THE I-59
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND
WHERE MOISTURE POOLING HAS OCCURRED. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT...POST-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING
SOMEWHERE NEAR MONTGOMERY OR CLANTON OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE DEEP-LAYER DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FOR FRIDAY WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE A BIT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 500MB
HEIGHT RISES OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS A RESULT...WITH 90S RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINE AS
25-35 KT 500MB WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT
NOW CLEAR OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG FORMATION DUE TO THE DRY
AIR NOT COMPLETELY FILTERING IN FAST ENOUGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT. FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI...VCTS REMAINS
IN THE TAF THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT...THEN
THE THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE VALUES
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINALS SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH MORE MOISTURE
REMAINING SOUTH NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE
TAF FOR NOW AT KMGM AND KTOI THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  88  69  92  71 /  10  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    70  89  70  92  72 /  10  20   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  89  71  92  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  91  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      70  89  71  92  73 /  10  20   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  88  72  92  72 /  40  50  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  91  72  93  73 /  40  40  20  10  10
TROY        72  89  72  92  72 /  40  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 242330 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  WILL HAVE VCSH STARTING AT THE TAF SITES BY 10Z THEN
VCTS BY 16Z.  HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FROM 18-22Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FOLLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  30  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 242330 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  WILL HAVE VCSH STARTING AT THE TAF SITES BY 10Z THEN
VCTS BY 16Z.  HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FROM 18-22Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FOLLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  30  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 242330 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  WILL HAVE VCSH STARTING AT THE TAF SITES BY 10Z THEN
VCTS BY 16Z.  HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FROM 18-22Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FOLLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  30  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 242330 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  WILL HAVE VCSH STARTING AT THE TAF SITES BY 10Z THEN
VCTS BY 16Z.  HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FROM 18-22Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FOLLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  30  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 242047
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]...MID TO UPPER TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT
AND ON FRI AS BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER PLAINS STATES SHIFTS EAST. AT THE SFC A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN STALL GENERALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AL
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO THE MS COAST BY 12Z FRI. LATEST HI RES DATA
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING OR LIFT TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING RESULTING IN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR AND ALONG THE STALLING FRONT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR FRI
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST EARLY FRI THEN SHIFT INLAND
FORMING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT DURING THE DAY ON
FRI. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTH ON FRI LESS
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED GENERALLY RESULTING IN
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRI EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AND THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE COAST OR GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGHS ON FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY PROVIDES REINFORCEMENT TO A SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT WILL BRING
AN EXPECTATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY IN THE COASTAL THIRD OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
DRIVEN BY THE LAND BREEZE. THE HIGHER FREQUENCY COMPONENTS OF THE 500
MB JET APPEAR TO DAMPEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. HOWEVER...WHEN WE BACK AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION THE
WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN APPEARS MORE OR LESS TO BE STEADY STATE. IN FACT
IT IS SHOWING A SLIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OVER LABRADOR AND
THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND AN INTENSIFYING RIDGE OVER THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE ENVIRONMENT HAS RETURNED TO BEING
MORE BAROTROPIC...AS WE ARE LOCATED UNDER THE CENTROID OF A LARGE
500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLORADO/WYOMING INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS WOULD LEAVE US DEVOID OF MOST UPPER DYNAMICS AND LEAVE
EVERYTHING UP TO THE SEABREEZE...ALBEIT WITH A SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF THAT UPPER HIGH. TO
SUMMARIZE: EVEN A 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT...DAYTIME CAPE
OF 2400 J/KG...AND LI OF -2 IN THE NORTH TO -4 ALONG THE COAST AROUND
1800Z SATURDAY...WOULD BARELY BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION DUE TO
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE
PASSED THE US/CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND DAMPEN AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL RE-INTENSIFY INTO
A CLOSED LOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO NORTHERN AL/MS BY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL...AND POPS SLIGHTLY BELOW...ARE
BEING INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH WHICH WOULD ENABLE A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO
JUST OFF THE GULF COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT...GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MORE THAN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. TEMPERATURE TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL WITH
DEWPOINTS DRYING OUT SLIGHTLY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS
MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD
STRENGTHEN YET ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN LATER NEXT WEEK.
77/BD

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE WEST WITH
THIS PATTERN NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY UP TO AROUND 2 FEET...THEN BUILDING TO AROUND 4
FEET LATER IN THE WEEK AS WINDS BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...[24.18Z-25.00Z ISSUANCES]...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
PERIODICALLY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING ON FRI THEN BUILD TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  30  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 242047
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]...MID TO UPPER TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT
AND ON FRI AS BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER PLAINS STATES SHIFTS EAST. AT THE SFC A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN STALL GENERALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AL
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO THE MS COAST BY 12Z FRI. LATEST HI RES DATA
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING OR LIFT TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING RESULTING IN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR AND ALONG THE STALLING FRONT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR FRI
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST EARLY FRI THEN SHIFT INLAND
FORMING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT DURING THE DAY ON
FRI. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTH ON FRI LESS
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED GENERALLY RESULTING IN
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRI EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AND THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE COAST OR GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGHS ON FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY PROVIDES REINFORCEMENT TO A SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT WILL BRING
AN EXPECTATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY IN THE COASTAL THIRD OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
DRIVEN BY THE LAND BREEZE. THE HIGHER FREQUENCY COMPONENTS OF THE 500
MB JET APPEAR TO DAMPEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. HOWEVER...WHEN WE BACK AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION THE
WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN APPEARS MORE OR LESS TO BE STEADY STATE. IN FACT
IT IS SHOWING A SLIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OVER LABRADOR AND
THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND AN INTENSIFYING RIDGE OVER THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE ENVIRONMENT HAS RETURNED TO BEING
MORE BAROTROPIC...AS WE ARE LOCATED UNDER THE CENTROID OF A LARGE
500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLORADO/WYOMING INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS WOULD LEAVE US DEVOID OF MOST UPPER DYNAMICS AND LEAVE
EVERYTHING UP TO THE SEABREEZE...ALBEIT WITH A SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF THAT UPPER HIGH. TO
SUMMARIZE: EVEN A 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT...DAYTIME CAPE
OF 2400 J/KG...AND LI OF -2 IN THE NORTH TO -4 ALONG THE COAST AROUND
1800Z SATURDAY...WOULD BARELY BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION DUE TO
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE
PASSED THE US/CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND DAMPEN AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL RE-INTENSIFY INTO
A CLOSED LOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO NORTHERN AL/MS BY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL...AND POPS SLIGHTLY BELOW...ARE
BEING INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH WHICH WOULD ENABLE A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO
JUST OFF THE GULF COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT...GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MORE THAN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. TEMPERATURE TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL WITH
DEWPOINTS DRYING OUT SLIGHTLY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS
MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD
STRENGTHEN YET ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN LATER NEXT WEEK.
77/BD

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE WEST WITH
THIS PATTERN NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY UP TO AROUND 2 FEET...THEN BUILDING TO AROUND 4
FEET LATER IN THE WEEK AS WINDS BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...[24.18Z-25.00Z ISSUANCES]...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
PERIODICALLY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING ON FRI THEN BUILD TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  30  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 242047
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]...MID TO UPPER TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT
AND ON FRI AS BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER PLAINS STATES SHIFTS EAST. AT THE SFC A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN STALL GENERALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AL
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO THE MS COAST BY 12Z FRI. LATEST HI RES DATA
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING OR LIFT TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING RESULTING IN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR AND ALONG THE STALLING FRONT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR FRI
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST EARLY FRI THEN SHIFT INLAND
FORMING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT DURING THE DAY ON
FRI. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTH ON FRI LESS
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED GENERALLY RESULTING IN
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRI EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AND THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE COAST OR GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGHS ON FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY PROVIDES REINFORCEMENT TO A SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT WILL BRING
AN EXPECTATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY IN THE COASTAL THIRD OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
DRIVEN BY THE LAND BREEZE. THE HIGHER FREQUENCY COMPONENTS OF THE 500
MB JET APPEAR TO DAMPEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. HOWEVER...WHEN WE BACK AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION THE
WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN APPEARS MORE OR LESS TO BE STEADY STATE. IN FACT
IT IS SHOWING A SLIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OVER LABRADOR AND
THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND AN INTENSIFYING RIDGE OVER THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE ENVIRONMENT HAS RETURNED TO BEING
MORE BAROTROPIC...AS WE ARE LOCATED UNDER THE CENTROID OF A LARGE
500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLORADO/WYOMING INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS WOULD LEAVE US DEVOID OF MOST UPPER DYNAMICS AND LEAVE
EVERYTHING UP TO THE SEABREEZE...ALBEIT WITH A SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF THAT UPPER HIGH. TO
SUMMARIZE: EVEN A 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT...DAYTIME CAPE
OF 2400 J/KG...AND LI OF -2 IN THE NORTH TO -4 ALONG THE COAST AROUND
1800Z SATURDAY...WOULD BARELY BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION DUE TO
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE
PASSED THE US/CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND DAMPEN AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL RE-INTENSIFY INTO
A CLOSED LOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO NORTHERN AL/MS BY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL...AND POPS SLIGHTLY BELOW...ARE
BEING INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH WHICH WOULD ENABLE A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO
JUST OFF THE GULF COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT...GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MORE THAN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. TEMPERATURE TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL WITH
DEWPOINTS DRYING OUT SLIGHTLY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS
MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD
STRENGTHEN YET ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN LATER NEXT WEEK.
77/BD

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE WEST WITH
THIS PATTERN NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY UP TO AROUND 2 FEET...THEN BUILDING TO AROUND 4
FEET LATER IN THE WEEK AS WINDS BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...[24.18Z-25.00Z ISSUANCES]...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
PERIODICALLY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING ON FRI THEN BUILD TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  30  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 242047
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]...MID TO UPPER TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT
AND ON FRI AS BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER PLAINS STATES SHIFTS EAST. AT THE SFC A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN STALL GENERALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AL
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO THE MS COAST BY 12Z FRI. LATEST HI RES DATA
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING OR LIFT TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING RESULTING IN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR AND ALONG THE STALLING FRONT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR FRI
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST EARLY FRI THEN SHIFT INLAND
FORMING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT DURING THE DAY ON
FRI. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTH ON FRI LESS
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED GENERALLY RESULTING IN
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRI EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AND THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE COAST OR GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGHS ON FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY PROVIDES REINFORCEMENT TO A SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT WILL BRING
AN EXPECTATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY IN THE COASTAL THIRD OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
DRIVEN BY THE LAND BREEZE. THE HIGHER FREQUENCY COMPONENTS OF THE 500
MB JET APPEAR TO DAMPEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. HOWEVER...WHEN WE BACK AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION THE
WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN APPEARS MORE OR LESS TO BE STEADY STATE. IN FACT
IT IS SHOWING A SLIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OVER LABRADOR AND
THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND AN INTENSIFYING RIDGE OVER THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE ENVIRONMENT HAS RETURNED TO BEING
MORE BAROTROPIC...AS WE ARE LOCATED UNDER THE CENTROID OF A LARGE
500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLORADO/WYOMING INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS WOULD LEAVE US DEVOID OF MOST UPPER DYNAMICS AND LEAVE
EVERYTHING UP TO THE SEABREEZE...ALBEIT WITH A SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF THAT UPPER HIGH. TO
SUMMARIZE: EVEN A 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT...DAYTIME CAPE
OF 2400 J/KG...AND LI OF -2 IN THE NORTH TO -4 ALONG THE COAST AROUND
1800Z SATURDAY...WOULD BARELY BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION DUE TO
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE
PASSED THE US/CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND DAMPEN AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL RE-INTENSIFY INTO
A CLOSED LOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO NORTHERN AL/MS BY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL...AND POPS SLIGHTLY BELOW...ARE
BEING INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH WHICH WOULD ENABLE A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO
JUST OFF THE GULF COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT...GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MORE THAN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. TEMPERATURE TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL WITH
DEWPOINTS DRYING OUT SLIGHTLY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS
MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD
STRENGTHEN YET ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN LATER NEXT WEEK.
77/BD

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE WEST WITH
THIS PATTERN NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY UP TO AROUND 2 FEET...THEN BUILDING TO AROUND 4
FEET LATER IN THE WEEK AS WINDS BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...[24.18Z-25.00Z ISSUANCES]...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY
IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
PERIODICALLY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING ON FRI THEN BUILD TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   76  89  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  87  77  89  78 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  92  71  93  73 /  30  40  30  30  10
WAYNESBORO  70  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 242034
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
334 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED NEAR THE I-59
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND
WHERE MOISTURE POOLING HAS OCCURRED. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT...POST-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING
SOMEWHERE NEAR MONTGOMERY OR CLANTON OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE DEEP-LAYER DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FOR FRIDAY WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE A BIT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 500MB
HEIGHT RISES OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS A RESULT...WITH 90S RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINE AS
25-35 KT 500MB WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTED AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY LIFTING INTO CU/TCU ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE WAS REACHED THIS MORNING. SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. NO
CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIME COVERAGE OF TSTMS AT TAF SITES...SO
HELD TO VCTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW SHOULD SHUNT ACTIVITY TO
THE SE LATE THIS AFTN...COMING TO AN END EARLIER AT
TCL/BMX/EET/ANB THAN AT MGM/TOI.

BIG QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE HOW FAR THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOCATIONS ALONG SE OF FRONT CAN
EXPECT PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHILE LOCATIONS N OF FRONT WILL MORE LIKELY BE
PREDOMINANTLY AREAS OF FOG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GENERAL...BUT
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO LIFR/VLIFR AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THAT SHOULD BE MGM/TOI...AND PERHAPS EET/ANB DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
THE FRONT ACTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND WHETHER OR NOT
IT WAVERS AS FAR NORTH AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  88  69  92  71 /  10  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    70  89  70  92  72 /  10  20   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  89  71  92  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  91  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      70  89  71  92  73 /  10  20   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  88  72  92  72 /  40  50  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  91  72  93  73 /  40  40  20  10  10
TROY        72  89  72  92  72 /  40  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/02





000
FXUS64 KBMX 242034
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
334 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED NEAR THE I-59
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND
WHERE MOISTURE POOLING HAS OCCURRED. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT...POST-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING
SOMEWHERE NEAR MONTGOMERY OR CLANTON OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE DEEP-LAYER DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FOR FRIDAY WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE A BIT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 500MB
HEIGHT RISES OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS A RESULT...WITH 90S RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINE AS
25-35 KT 500MB WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTED AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY LIFTING INTO CU/TCU ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE WAS REACHED THIS MORNING. SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. NO
CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIME COVERAGE OF TSTMS AT TAF SITES...SO
HELD TO VCTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW SHOULD SHUNT ACTIVITY TO
THE SE LATE THIS AFTN...COMING TO AN END EARLIER AT
TCL/BMX/EET/ANB THAN AT MGM/TOI.

BIG QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE HOW FAR THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOCATIONS ALONG SE OF FRONT CAN
EXPECT PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHILE LOCATIONS N OF FRONT WILL MORE LIKELY BE
PREDOMINANTLY AREAS OF FOG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GENERAL...BUT
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO LIFR/VLIFR AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THAT SHOULD BE MGM/TOI...AND PERHAPS EET/ANB DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
THE FRONT ACTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND WHETHER OR NOT
IT WAVERS AS FAR NORTH AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  88  69  92  71 /  10  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    70  89  70  92  72 /  10  20   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  89  71  92  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  91  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      70  89  71  92  73 /  10  20   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  88  72  92  72 /  40  50  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  91  72  93  73 /  40  40  20  10  10
TROY        72  89  72  92  72 /  40  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/02





000
FXUS64 KBMX 242034
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
334 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED NEAR THE I-59
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND
WHERE MOISTURE POOLING HAS OCCURRED. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT...POST-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING
SOMEWHERE NEAR MONTGOMERY OR CLANTON OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE DEEP-LAYER DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FOR FRIDAY WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE A BIT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 500MB
HEIGHT RISES OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS A RESULT...WITH 90S RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINE AS
25-35 KT 500MB WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTED AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY LIFTING INTO CU/TCU ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE WAS REACHED THIS MORNING. SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. NO
CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIME COVERAGE OF TSTMS AT TAF SITES...SO
HELD TO VCTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW SHOULD SHUNT ACTIVITY TO
THE SE LATE THIS AFTN...COMING TO AN END EARLIER AT
TCL/BMX/EET/ANB THAN AT MGM/TOI.

BIG QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE HOW FAR THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOCATIONS ALONG SE OF FRONT CAN
EXPECT PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHILE LOCATIONS N OF FRONT WILL MORE LIKELY BE
PREDOMINANTLY AREAS OF FOG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GENERAL...BUT
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO LIFR/VLIFR AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THAT SHOULD BE MGM/TOI...AND PERHAPS EET/ANB DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
THE FRONT ACTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND WHETHER OR NOT
IT WAVERS AS FAR NORTH AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  88  69  92  71 /  10  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    70  89  70  92  72 /  10  20   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  89  71  92  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  91  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      70  89  71  92  73 /  10  20   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  88  72  92  72 /  40  50  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  91  72  93  73 /  40  40  20  10  10
TROY        72  89  72  92  72 /  40  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/02





000
FXUS64 KBMX 242034
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
334 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED NEAR THE I-59
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND
WHERE MOISTURE POOLING HAS OCCURRED. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT...POST-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING
SOMEWHERE NEAR MONTGOMERY OR CLANTON OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE DEEP-LAYER DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FOR FRIDAY WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE A BIT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 500MB
HEIGHT RISES OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS A RESULT...WITH 90S RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINE AS
25-35 KT 500MB WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTED AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY LIFTING INTO CU/TCU ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE WAS REACHED THIS MORNING. SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. NO
CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIME COVERAGE OF TSTMS AT TAF SITES...SO
HELD TO VCTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW SHOULD SHUNT ACTIVITY TO
THE SE LATE THIS AFTN...COMING TO AN END EARLIER AT
TCL/BMX/EET/ANB THAN AT MGM/TOI.

BIG QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE HOW FAR THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOCATIONS ALONG SE OF FRONT CAN
EXPECT PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHILE LOCATIONS N OF FRONT WILL MORE LIKELY BE
PREDOMINANTLY AREAS OF FOG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GENERAL...BUT
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO LIFR/VLIFR AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THAT SHOULD BE MGM/TOI...AND PERHAPS EET/ANB DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
THE FRONT ACTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND WHETHER OR NOT
IT WAVERS AS FAR NORTH AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  88  69  92  71 /  10  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    70  89  70  92  72 /  10  20   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  89  71  92  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  91  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      70  89  71  92  73 /  10  20   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  88  72  92  72 /  40  50  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  91  72  93  73 /  40  40  20  10  10
TROY        72  89  72  92  72 /  40  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/02





000
FXUS64 KHUN 241912
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
212 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOME LINGERING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS IN MOST LOCATIONS. IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS PRETTY HARD
TONIGHT. SINCE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVENING OR MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE FOG COVERAGE OR DENSITY MORE...BUT FOR NOW HOLDING THE
CONSERVATIVE ROUTE IN GRIDS.

ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...THE VERY STRONG 596 MB UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. MODELS PROG 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING TO
AROUND 580 MB BY SATURDAY AND THEN 582 MB BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN HOT CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...DESPITE A FRONT HAVING JUST PASSED THROUGH AREA
RECENTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUST UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BELIEVE HIGHS WILL REACH 95 TO 97 DEGREES DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 98 OR 99 AT KMSL ON SUNDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND AROUND 100 DEGREES DURING THAT TIMEFRAME...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SUNDAY COULD
APPROACH 105 DEGREES. SO BE PREPARED AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS OVER
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF YOU PLAN TO EXERCISE OR WORK OUTSIDE.

LUCKILY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SECOND...LIKELY STRONGER...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIT MORE SHEAR AND WIND
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONGER AND MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
FRONT LOOKS MORE SUBSTANTIAL AS WELL...SO COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS A RESULT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING MOSTLY BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES AS DRIER AIR
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILTER IN. THUS WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN TAFS
SINCE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE OVER NE AL. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES UNTIL 22Z/23Z...OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    65  90  68  94 /  10   0  10  10
SHOALS        63  91  67  95 /  10   0  10  10
VINEMONT      63  88  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  62  88  64  92 /  10   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   65  87  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    63  88  64  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241912
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
212 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOME LINGERING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS IN MOST LOCATIONS. IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS PRETTY HARD
TONIGHT. SINCE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVENING OR MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE FOG COVERAGE OR DENSITY MORE...BUT FOR NOW HOLDING THE
CONSERVATIVE ROUTE IN GRIDS.

ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...THE VERY STRONG 596 MB UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. MODELS PROG 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING TO
AROUND 580 MB BY SATURDAY AND THEN 582 MB BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN HOT CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...DESPITE A FRONT HAVING JUST PASSED THROUGH AREA
RECENTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUST UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BELIEVE HIGHS WILL REACH 95 TO 97 DEGREES DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 98 OR 99 AT KMSL ON SUNDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND AROUND 100 DEGREES DURING THAT TIMEFRAME...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SUNDAY COULD
APPROACH 105 DEGREES. SO BE PREPARED AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS OVER
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF YOU PLAN TO EXERCISE OR WORK OUTSIDE.

LUCKILY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SECOND...LIKELY STRONGER...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIT MORE SHEAR AND WIND
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONGER AND MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
FRONT LOOKS MORE SUBSTANTIAL AS WELL...SO COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS A RESULT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING MOSTLY BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES AS DRIER AIR
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILTER IN. THUS WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN TAFS
SINCE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE OVER NE AL. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES UNTIL 22Z/23Z...OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    65  90  68  94 /  10   0  10  10
SHOALS        63  91  67  95 /  10   0  10  10
VINEMONT      63  88  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  62  88  64  92 /  10   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   65  87  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    63  88  64  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 241747
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/TRENDS RIGHT ON TRACK. SHOWERS DEVELOPING A LITTLE
LATER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT INCREASING AT A GOOD CLIP ATTM.
PRODUCTS WERE REISSUED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTED AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY LIFTING INTO CU/TCU ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE WAS REACHED THIS MORNING. SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. NO
CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIME COVERAGE OF TSTMS AT TAF SITES...SO
HELD TO VCTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW SHOULD SHUNT ACTIVITY TO
THE SE LATE THIS AFTN...COMING TO AN END EARLIER AT
TCL/BMX/EET/ANB THAN AT MGM/TOI.

BIG QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE HOW FAR THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOCATIONS ALONG SE OF FRONT CAN
EXPECT PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHILE LOCATIONS N OF FRONT WILL MORE LIKELY BE
PREDOMINANTLY AREAS OF FOG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GENERAL...BUT
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO LIFR/VLIFR AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THAT SHOULD BE MGM/TOI...AND PERHAPS EET/ANB DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
THE FRONT ACTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND WHETHER OR NOT
IT WAVERS AS FAR NORTH AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING.

02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 632 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

WATCHING SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS TO TRY AND FIGURE OUT THE POPS
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IS LAGGING BEHIND
AND IS JUST INTO NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE. VERY LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SO WILL NEED A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING
TO GET SOME RAINFALL. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING AND ALONG WITH SOME HEATING...SHOULD GET SOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAPPEN FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH SINCE SOME OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALREADY PUSHING
INTO THE STATE. THE LATEST HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING THIS WITH THE BEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE BHM METRO AREA. WILL TWEAK
THE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCATTERED MAY BE THE BETTER WAY
TO GO.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS COMING IN MAY VERY WELL HANG UP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE PROBABLY DRY WITH VERY LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES AS THE STRONG WESTERN RIDGING BRIEFLY EXTENDS TOWARDS THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S MIXED IN AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN RIDGING BUILDS AND A DEEP TROUGH WILL
DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINNING MONDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE TWO OTHER COOL AIRMASSES
WE HAVE SEEN THIS JULY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE LOWER 80S TO MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH...LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S. SEE NO
REASON WHY THE COOLER TEMPS WANT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS FOR RAINFALL...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THEN DRY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BUT
WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO LOOK AT THAT.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 241747
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/TRENDS RIGHT ON TRACK. SHOWERS DEVELOPING A LITTLE
LATER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT INCREASING AT A GOOD CLIP ATTM.
PRODUCTS WERE REISSUED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTED AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY LIFTING INTO CU/TCU ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE WAS REACHED THIS MORNING. SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. NO
CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIME COVERAGE OF TSTMS AT TAF SITES...SO
HELD TO VCTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW SHOULD SHUNT ACTIVITY TO
THE SE LATE THIS AFTN...COMING TO AN END EARLIER AT
TCL/BMX/EET/ANB THAN AT MGM/TOI.

BIG QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE HOW FAR THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOCATIONS ALONG SE OF FRONT CAN
EXPECT PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHILE LOCATIONS N OF FRONT WILL MORE LIKELY BE
PREDOMINANTLY AREAS OF FOG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GENERAL...BUT
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO LIFR/VLIFR AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THAT SHOULD BE MGM/TOI...AND PERHAPS EET/ANB DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
THE FRONT ACTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND WHETHER OR NOT
IT WAVERS AS FAR NORTH AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING.

02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 632 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

WATCHING SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS TO TRY AND FIGURE OUT THE POPS
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IS LAGGING BEHIND
AND IS JUST INTO NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE. VERY LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SO WILL NEED A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING
TO GET SOME RAINFALL. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING AND ALONG WITH SOME HEATING...SHOULD GET SOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAPPEN FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH SINCE SOME OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALREADY PUSHING
INTO THE STATE. THE LATEST HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING THIS WITH THE BEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE BHM METRO AREA. WILL TWEAK
THE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCATTERED MAY BE THE BETTER WAY
TO GO.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS COMING IN MAY VERY WELL HANG UP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE PROBABLY DRY WITH VERY LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES AS THE STRONG WESTERN RIDGING BRIEFLY EXTENDS TOWARDS THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S MIXED IN AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN RIDGING BUILDS AND A DEEP TROUGH WILL
DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINNING MONDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE TWO OTHER COOL AIRMASSES
WE HAVE SEEN THIS JULY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE LOWER 80S TO MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH...LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S. SEE NO
REASON WHY THE COOLER TEMPS WANT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS FOR RAINFALL...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THEN DRY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BUT
WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO LOOK AT THAT.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 241719
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1155 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
A WEAK CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE HSV AREA AND IS LOCATED OVER NERN
AL ATTM. MOST OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT IS OVER
EXTREME NE AL AND INTO GA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR CHC POPS IN OUR SERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN.
HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. NO
SVR WX IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I65. WILL LOWER TEMPS
TO THE LOWER 80S DUE TO SLOW BURN OFF OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES AS DRIER AIR
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILTER IN. THUS WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN TAFS
SINCE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE OVER NE AL. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES UNTIL 22Z/23Z...OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241719
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1155 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
A WEAK CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE HSV AREA AND IS LOCATED OVER NERN
AL ATTM. MOST OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT IS OVER
EXTREME NE AL AND INTO GA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR CHC POPS IN OUR SERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN.
HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. NO
SVR WX IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I65. WILL LOWER TEMPS
TO THE LOWER 80S DUE TO SLOW BURN OFF OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES AS DRIER AIR
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILTER IN. THUS WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN TAFS
SINCE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE OVER NE AL. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES UNTIL 22Z/23Z...OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241655
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1155 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS...REST OF FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE HSV AREA AND IS LOCATED OVER NERN
AL ATTM. MOST OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT IS OVER
EXTREME NE AL AND INTO GA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR CHC POPS IN OUR SERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN.
HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. NO
SVR WX IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I65. WILL LOWER TEMPS
TO THE LOWER 80S DUE TO SLOW BURN OFF OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS... LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FG WITH PERIODIC REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY TO IFR WILL OCCUR ALONG THE TN RIVER THRU ~14Z. THE CLOUDS
WILL LIFT INTO A SCT-BKN CUMULUS LAYER LATE THIS MORNING. ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP, BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM. A COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE N
THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH A CLEARING TREND AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 914 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
A WEAK CDFNT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN MSL AND HSV. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY
SHOWING A FEW SHRA OVER PORTIONS OF MID TN ATTM. WATER VAPOR STLT
SHOWED VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THAT
HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. TIME SECTIONS/MODEL SOUNDINGS/12Z
U/A SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWED LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE CDFNT TO WORK WITH
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE OVER
OUR SERN ZONES (LATE MRNG/AFTN) AS THE CDFNT MOVES EAST AND THE
EFFECT OF DAYTIME HEATING. NO SVR WX EXPECTED TODAY BUT A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINGS AND BRIEF HVY RAIN.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241655
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1155 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS...REST OF FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE HSV AREA AND IS LOCATED OVER NERN
AL ATTM. MOST OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT IS OVER
EXTREME NE AL AND INTO GA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR CHC POPS IN OUR SERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN.
HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. NO
SVR WX IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I65. WILL LOWER TEMPS
TO THE LOWER 80S DUE TO SLOW BURN OFF OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS... LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FG WITH PERIODIC REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY TO IFR WILL OCCUR ALONG THE TN RIVER THRU ~14Z. THE CLOUDS
WILL LIFT INTO A SCT-BKN CUMULUS LAYER LATE THIS MORNING. ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP, BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM. A COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE N
THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH A CLEARING TREND AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 914 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
A WEAK CDFNT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN MSL AND HSV. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY
SHOWING A FEW SHRA OVER PORTIONS OF MID TN ATTM. WATER VAPOR STLT
SHOWED VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THAT
HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. TIME SECTIONS/MODEL SOUNDINGS/12Z
U/A SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWED LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE CDFNT TO WORK WITH
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE OVER
OUR SERN ZONES (LATE MRNG/AFTN) AS THE CDFNT MOVES EAST AND THE
EFFECT OF DAYTIME HEATING. NO SVR WX EXPECTED TODAY BUT A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINGS AND BRIEF HVY RAIN.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 241634 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...[18Z ISSUANCE]...WENT AHEAD WITH AN AMENDMENT WITH THE
CURRENT TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR ALL SITES BASICALLY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING UPSTREAM MOSTLY APPROACHING KMOB AND KBFM
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. HAD A THUNDERSTORM PASS THROUGH KPNS IN
THE LAST HOUR THOUGH BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY VCTS
CONDITIONS FOR NOW. ANYMORE CONVECTION FORMING UPSTREAM FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A TEMPO
GROUP FOR KPNS ALSO FOR TODAYS AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING
TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING ON FRI. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA
HAS OPENED TO AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS
EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND AN UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY DEEPENS. THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROF WILL ALLOW A REINFORCING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
OVER TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO DROP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT SOME AREAS OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA
(WHERE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE GREATEST) WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS. DOWN CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEA BREEZE FORCING WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO
LATE EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING
PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHERN (COASTAL) THIRD OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST
AND NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE MODERATING AFFECTS OF THE GULF COME
INTO PLAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INTERIOR
COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FILLS..AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING MOVING EAST OVER
THE US/CA ROCKIES...AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EXPANDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...RESTORING ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS
HIGH (PRECIP H20 VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.75") AND HELP TO TEMPER THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMING AN INFLUENCE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. TEMPS A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED. WHAT THIS UPPER HIGH DOES IS TEMPER THE
CHANCE OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. POPS
START AROUND SEASONAL FOR FRIDAY AND DROP BELOW FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW THAT PASSED OVER THE US/CA ROCKIES MOVES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS RE-DIGS THE EASTERN TROUGH...ALONG WITH LETTING
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILD NORTH ALONG THE ROCKIES.
A FRONT GET PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...TO NORTHERN AL/MS BY MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE
GUIDANCE. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS A BIT BELOW ARE BEING
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER ENERGY CONTINUING TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH...THE SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED
SOUTH...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE
POPS...ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS COOL OFF A
BIT (MAINLY DUE TO THE RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND DRYING OUT OF
THE AIRMASS OVER THE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
(24/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH OVER MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH REGARD TO CIGS AND SFC VSBYS NEAR
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK REINFORCING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND INLAND FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED...
GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE  POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  91  74  92 /  50  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   88  75  90  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  78  88  77  89 /  50  20  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  93  71  93 /  50  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  93  72  94 /  30  30  30  10  20
CAMDEN      88  70  93  71  93 /  50  30  40  10  20
CRESTVIEW   91  70  92  71  93 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16









000
FXUS64 KMOB 241634 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...[18Z ISSUANCE]...WENT AHEAD WITH AN AMENDMENT WITH THE
CURRENT TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR ALL SITES BASICALLY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING UPSTREAM MOSTLY APPROACHING KMOB AND KBFM
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. HAD A THUNDERSTORM PASS THROUGH KPNS IN
THE LAST HOUR THOUGH BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY VCTS
CONDITIONS FOR NOW. ANYMORE CONVECTION FORMING UPSTREAM FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A TEMPO
GROUP FOR KPNS ALSO FOR TODAYS AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING
TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING ON FRI. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA
HAS OPENED TO AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS
EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND AN UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY DEEPENS. THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROF WILL ALLOW A REINFORCING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
OVER TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO DROP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT SOME AREAS OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA
(WHERE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE GREATEST) WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS. DOWN CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEA BREEZE FORCING WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO
LATE EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING
PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHERN (COASTAL) THIRD OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST
AND NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE MODERATING AFFECTS OF THE GULF COME
INTO PLAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INTERIOR
COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FILLS..AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING MOVING EAST OVER
THE US/CA ROCKIES...AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EXPANDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...RESTORING ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS
HIGH (PRECIP H20 VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.75") AND HELP TO TEMPER THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMING AN INFLUENCE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. TEMPS A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED. WHAT THIS UPPER HIGH DOES IS TEMPER THE
CHANCE OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. POPS
START AROUND SEASONAL FOR FRIDAY AND DROP BELOW FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW THAT PASSED OVER THE US/CA ROCKIES MOVES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS RE-DIGS THE EASTERN TROUGH...ALONG WITH LETTING
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILD NORTH ALONG THE ROCKIES.
A FRONT GET PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...TO NORTHERN AL/MS BY MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE
GUIDANCE. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS A BIT BELOW ARE BEING
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER ENERGY CONTINUING TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH...THE SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED
SOUTH...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE
POPS...ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS COOL OFF A
BIT (MAINLY DUE TO THE RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND DRYING OUT OF
THE AIRMASS OVER THE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
(24/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH OVER MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH REGARD TO CIGS AND SFC VSBYS NEAR
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK REINFORCING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND INLAND FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED...
GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE  POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  91  74  92 /  50  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   88  75  90  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  78  88  77  89 /  50  20  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  93  71  93 /  50  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  93  72  94 /  30  30  30  10  20
CAMDEN      88  70  93  71  93 /  50  30  40  10  20
CRESTVIEW   91  70  92  71  93 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16









000
FXUS64 KMOB 241634 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...[18Z ISSUANCE]...WENT AHEAD WITH AN AMENDMENT WITH THE
CURRENT TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR ALL SITES BASICALLY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING UPSTREAM MOSTLY APPROACHING KMOB AND KBFM
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. HAD A THUNDERSTORM PASS THROUGH KPNS IN
THE LAST HOUR THOUGH BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY VCTS
CONDITIONS FOR NOW. ANYMORE CONVECTION FORMING UPSTREAM FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A TEMPO
GROUP FOR KPNS ALSO FOR TODAYS AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING
TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING ON FRI. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA
HAS OPENED TO AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS
EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND AN UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY DEEPENS. THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROF WILL ALLOW A REINFORCING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
OVER TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO DROP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT SOME AREAS OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA
(WHERE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE GREATEST) WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS. DOWN CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEA BREEZE FORCING WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO
LATE EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING
PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHERN (COASTAL) THIRD OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST
AND NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE MODERATING AFFECTS OF THE GULF COME
INTO PLAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INTERIOR
COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FILLS..AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING MOVING EAST OVER
THE US/CA ROCKIES...AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EXPANDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...RESTORING ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS
HIGH (PRECIP H20 VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.75") AND HELP TO TEMPER THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMING AN INFLUENCE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. TEMPS A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED. WHAT THIS UPPER HIGH DOES IS TEMPER THE
CHANCE OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. POPS
START AROUND SEASONAL FOR FRIDAY AND DROP BELOW FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW THAT PASSED OVER THE US/CA ROCKIES MOVES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS RE-DIGS THE EASTERN TROUGH...ALONG WITH LETTING
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILD NORTH ALONG THE ROCKIES.
A FRONT GET PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...TO NORTHERN AL/MS BY MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE
GUIDANCE. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS A BIT BELOW ARE BEING
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER ENERGY CONTINUING TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH...THE SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED
SOUTH...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE
POPS...ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS COOL OFF A
BIT (MAINLY DUE TO THE RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND DRYING OUT OF
THE AIRMASS OVER THE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
(24/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH OVER MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH REGARD TO CIGS AND SFC VSBYS NEAR
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK REINFORCING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND INLAND FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED...
GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE  POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  91  74  92 /  50  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   88  75  90  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  78  88  77  89 /  50  20  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  93  71  93 /  50  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  93  72  94 /  30  30  30  10  20
CAMDEN      88  70  93  71  93 /  50  30  40  10  20
CRESTVIEW   91  70  92  71  93 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16









000
FXUS64 KMOB 241634 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...[18Z ISSUANCE]...WENT AHEAD WITH AN AMENDMENT WITH THE
CURRENT TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR ALL SITES BASICALLY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING UPSTREAM MOSTLY APPROACHING KMOB AND KBFM
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. HAD A THUNDERSTORM PASS THROUGH KPNS IN
THE LAST HOUR THOUGH BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY VCTS
CONDITIONS FOR NOW. ANYMORE CONVECTION FORMING UPSTREAM FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A TEMPO
GROUP FOR KPNS ALSO FOR TODAYS AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING
TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING ON FRI. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA
HAS OPENED TO AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS
EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND AN UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY DEEPENS. THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROF WILL ALLOW A REINFORCING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
OVER TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO DROP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT SOME AREAS OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA
(WHERE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE GREATEST) WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS. DOWN CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEA BREEZE FORCING WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO
LATE EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING
PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHERN (COASTAL) THIRD OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST
AND NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE MODERATING AFFECTS OF THE GULF COME
INTO PLAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INTERIOR
COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FILLS..AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING MOVING EAST OVER
THE US/CA ROCKIES...AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EXPANDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...RESTORING ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS
HIGH (PRECIP H20 VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.75") AND HELP TO TEMPER THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMING AN INFLUENCE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. TEMPS A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED. WHAT THIS UPPER HIGH DOES IS TEMPER THE
CHANCE OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. POPS
START AROUND SEASONAL FOR FRIDAY AND DROP BELOW FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW THAT PASSED OVER THE US/CA ROCKIES MOVES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS RE-DIGS THE EASTERN TROUGH...ALONG WITH LETTING
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILD NORTH ALONG THE ROCKIES.
A FRONT GET PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...TO NORTHERN AL/MS BY MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE
GUIDANCE. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS A BIT BELOW ARE BEING
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER ENERGY CONTINUING TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH...THE SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED
SOUTH...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE
POPS...ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS COOL OFF A
BIT (MAINLY DUE TO THE RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND DRYING OUT OF
THE AIRMASS OVER THE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
(24/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH OVER MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH REGARD TO CIGS AND SFC VSBYS NEAR
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK REINFORCING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND INLAND FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED...
GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE  POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  91  74  92 /  50  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   88  75  90  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  78  88  77  89 /  50  20  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  93  71  93 /  50  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  93  72  94 /  30  30  30  10  20
CAMDEN      88  70  93  71  93 /  50  30  40  10  20
CRESTVIEW   91  70  92  71  93 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16









000
FXUS64 KHUN 241414
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
914 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK CDFNT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN MSL AND HSV. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY
SHOWING A FEW SHRA OVER PORTIONS OF MID TN ATTM. WATER VAPOR STLT
SHOWED VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THAT
HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. TIME SECTIONS/MODEL SOUNDINGS/12Z
U/A SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWED LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE CDFNT TO WORK WITH
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE OVER
OUR SERN ZONES (LATE MRNG/AFTN) AS THE CDFNT MOVES EAST AND THE
EFFECT OF DAYTIME HEATING. NO SVR WX EXPECTED TODAY BUT A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINGS AND BRIEF HVY RAIN.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS... LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FG WITH PERIODIC REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY TO IFR WILL OCCUR ALONG THE TN RIVER THRU ~14Z. THE CLOUDS
WILL LIFT INTO A SCT-BKN CUMULUS LAYER LATE THIS MORNING. ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP, BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM. A COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE N
THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH A CLEARING TREND AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
THE ANOMALOUS JULY PATTERN CONTINUES, WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITTING JUST NORTH OF THE HUN CWFA AT 08Z. THIS WAS BEING
MARKED BY A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT
THIS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE CONVECTION, THE FOCUS NOW
SHIFTS TO FOG, AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VISIBILITY RAPIDLY DROP
OFF WITH CLEARING. THERE IS LITTLE DRY AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT; LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE STILL SITTING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE TN-KY STATE LINE.

BASED UPON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND CLEARING SKIES, AND THE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY, DENSE FOG SHOULD BECOME AN
INCREASING PROBLEM AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. SO WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY, WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM.

NEAR-TERM MODELS HAVE HAD A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION
SITUATION THIS MORNING, WITH SEVERAL INDICATING THE HUN CWFA GETTING
SPLIT BY WEAKENING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH (AS HAPPENED
BETWEEN 12-2AM) AND STORMS THAT RE-FIRE LATER TODAY TO THE SOUTH.
CONSIDERING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR RAPIDLY PUSHING INTO THE
AREA (PER WATER VAPOR), THIS SCENARIO IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
REASONABLE. SO FORECAST POPS FOR TODAY WILL EMPHASIZE THE MORNING
HOURS, ANTICIPATING THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOR AFTERNOON, AND SKEW
HIGHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
HIGHS TODAY ARE TOUGH, AS ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COLD AS
MUCH AS DRY; SO MOS CONSENSUS OF UPPER 80S LOOKS GOOD.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE DRY AS DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL IN LIGHT OF DRIER-THAN-NORMAL DEWPOINTS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE DUE TO GOOD
INSOLATION AND DRY AIR. IN FACT, THE MOS CONSENSUS PUSHES HIGHS INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING MAKES A BRIEF
ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVER THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE GFS HAS AVERAGED
2-4 DEGREES TOO WARM THIS SUMMER (THE NAM WARM BIAS IS LESS
PRONOUNCED BUT STILL EXISTS) SO THE FORECAST WILL UNDERCUT THE MOS.

THE FLIRTATION WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY DEEP (3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL)
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY-MONDAY, WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE HUN CWFA MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASED RAIN/STORM POTENTIAL,
THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL MAY LIMIT COVERAGE. THE MESOSCALE SETUP
IS TYPICAL FOR JULY--DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LITTLE SHEAR.

BEHIND THE FRONT, ONCE AGAIN, A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (THROUGH WEDNESDAY) AS DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK (AGAIN) TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE GFSX MOS SEEMS TOO WARM IN
THIS REGIME, AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MODIFIED PERSISTENCE BASED ON
SIMILAR PATTERNS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 241132
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WATCHING SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS TO TRY AND FIGURE OUT THE POPS
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IS LAGGING BEHIND
AND IS JUST INTO NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE. VERY LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SO WILL NEED A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING
TO GET SOME RAINFALL. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING AND ALONG WITH SOME HEATING...SHOULD GET SOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAPPEN FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH SINCE SOME OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALREADY PUSHING
INTO THE STATE. THE LATEST HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING THIS WITH THE BEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE BHM METRO AREA. WILL TWEAK
THE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCATTERED MAY BE THE BETTER WAY
TO GO.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS COMING IN MAY VERY WELL HANG UP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE PROBABLY DRY WITH VERY LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES AS THE STRONG WESTERN RIDGING BRIEFLY EXTENDS TOWARDS THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S MIXED IN AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN RIDGING BUILDS AND A DEEP TROUGH WILL
DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINNING MONDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE TWO OTHER COOL AIRMASSES
WE HAVE SEEN THIS JULY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE LOWER 80S TO MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH...LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S. SEE NO
REASON WHY THE COOLER TEMPS WANT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS FOR RAINFALL...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THEN DRY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BUT
WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO LOOK AT THAT.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVER CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE LOW CIGS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA...CLOSER TO A WEAK SFC FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NW ALABAMA.
THE FOG AND IFR CIGS WILL LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDS BY 15Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY
17Z AS THE AIR MASS HEATS AND DESTABILIZES SOUTH OF THE SFC FRONT.
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD BY 21Z TO PUSH
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE AT
KMGM AND KTOI AT LEAST THRU 02Z. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
FORM AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  68  88  68  92 /  40  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    86  70  90  69  91 /  60  20  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  71  92  71  92 /  50  10  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  89  70  93  70  93 /  60  10  10   0  10
CALERA      86  71  90  71  92 /  70  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      86  71  89  71  90 /  60  30  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  89  73  93  73  93 /  60  30  30  10  10
TROY        88  72  92  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 241132
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WATCHING SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS TO TRY AND FIGURE OUT THE POPS
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IS LAGGING BEHIND
AND IS JUST INTO NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE. VERY LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SO WILL NEED A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING
TO GET SOME RAINFALL. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING AND ALONG WITH SOME HEATING...SHOULD GET SOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAPPEN FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH SINCE SOME OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALREADY PUSHING
INTO THE STATE. THE LATEST HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING THIS WITH THE BEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE BHM METRO AREA. WILL TWEAK
THE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCATTERED MAY BE THE BETTER WAY
TO GO.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS COMING IN MAY VERY WELL HANG UP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE PROBABLY DRY WITH VERY LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES AS THE STRONG WESTERN RIDGING BRIEFLY EXTENDS TOWARDS THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S MIXED IN AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN RIDGING BUILDS AND A DEEP TROUGH WILL
DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINNING MONDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE TWO OTHER COOL AIRMASSES
WE HAVE SEEN THIS JULY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE LOWER 80S TO MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH...LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S. SEE NO
REASON WHY THE COOLER TEMPS WANT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS FOR RAINFALL...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THEN DRY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BUT
WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO LOOK AT THAT.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVER CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE LOW CIGS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA...CLOSER TO A WEAK SFC FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NW ALABAMA.
THE FOG AND IFR CIGS WILL LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDS BY 15Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY
17Z AS THE AIR MASS HEATS AND DESTABILIZES SOUTH OF THE SFC FRONT.
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD BY 21Z TO PUSH
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE AT
KMGM AND KTOI AT LEAST THRU 02Z. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
FORM AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  68  88  68  92 /  40  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    86  70  90  69  91 /  60  20  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  71  92  71  92 /  50  10  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  89  70  93  70  93 /  60  10  10   0  10
CALERA      86  71  90  71  92 /  70  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      86  71  89  71  90 /  60  30  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  89  73  93  73  93 /  60  30  30  10  10
TROY        88  72  92  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 241119 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
THE ANOMALOUS JULY PATTERN CONTINUES, WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITTING JUST NORTH OF THE HUN CWFA AT 08Z. THIS WAS BEING
MARKED BY A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT
THIS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE CONVECTION, THE FOCUS NOW
SHIFTS TO FOG, AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VISIBILITY RAPIDLY DROP
OFF WITH CLEARING. THERE IS LITTLE DRY AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT; LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE STILL SITTING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE TN-KY STATE LINE.

BASED UPON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND CLEARING SKIES, AND THE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY, DENSE FOG SHOULD BECOME AN
INCREASING PROBLEM AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. SO WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY, WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM.

NEAR-TERM MODELS HAVE HAD A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION
SITUATION THIS MORNING, WITH SEVERAL INDICATING THE HUN CWFA GETTING
SPLIT BY WEAKENING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH (AS HAPPENED
BETWEEN 12-2AM) AND STORMS THAT RE-FIRE LATER TODAY TO THE SOUTH.
CONSIDERING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR RAPIDLY PUSHING INTO THE
AREA (PER WATER VAPOR), THIS SCENARIO IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
REASONABLE. SO FORECAST POPS FOR TODAY WILL EMPHASIZE THE MORNING
HOURS, ANTICIPATING THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOR AFTERNOON, AND SKEW
HIGHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
HIGHS TODAY ARE TOUGH, AS ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COLD AS
MUCH AS DRY; SO MOS CONSENSUS OF UPPER 80S LOOKS GOOD.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE DRY AS DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL IN LIGHT OF DRIER-THAN-NORMAL DEWPOINTS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE DUE TO GOOD
INSOLATION AND DRY AIR. IN FACT, THE MOS CONSENSUS PUSHES HIGHS INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING MAKES A BRIEF
ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVER THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE GFS HAS AVERAGED
2-4 DEGREES TOO WARM THIS SUMMER (THE NAM WARM BIAS IS LESS
PRONOUNCED BUT STILL EXISTS) SO THE FORECAST WILL UNDERCUT THE MOS.

THE FLIRTATION WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY DEEP (3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL)
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY-MONDAY, WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE HUN CWFA MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASED RAIN/STORM POTENTIAL,
THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL MAY LIMIT COVERAGE. THE MESOSCALE SETUP
IS TYPICAL FOR JULY--DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LITTLE SHEAR.

BEHIND THE FRONT, ONCE AGAIN, A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (THROUGH WEDNESDAY) AS DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK (AGAIN) TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE GFSX MOS SEEMS TOO WARM IN
THIS REGIME, AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MODIFIED PERSISTENCE BASED ON
SIMILAR PATTERNS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FG WITH PERIODIC REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY TO IFR WILL OCCUR ALONG THE TN RIVER THRU ~14Z. THE CLOUDS
WILL LIFT INTO A SCT-BKN CUMULUS LAYER LATE THIS MORNING. ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP, BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM. A COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE N
THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH A CLEARING TREND AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241119 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
THE ANOMALOUS JULY PATTERN CONTINUES, WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITTING JUST NORTH OF THE HUN CWFA AT 08Z. THIS WAS BEING
MARKED BY A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT
THIS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE CONVECTION, THE FOCUS NOW
SHIFTS TO FOG, AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VISIBILITY RAPIDLY DROP
OFF WITH CLEARING. THERE IS LITTLE DRY AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT; LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE STILL SITTING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE TN-KY STATE LINE.

BASED UPON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND CLEARING SKIES, AND THE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY, DENSE FOG SHOULD BECOME AN
INCREASING PROBLEM AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. SO WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY, WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM.

NEAR-TERM MODELS HAVE HAD A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION
SITUATION THIS MORNING, WITH SEVERAL INDICATING THE HUN CWFA GETTING
SPLIT BY WEAKENING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH (AS HAPPENED
BETWEEN 12-2AM) AND STORMS THAT RE-FIRE LATER TODAY TO THE SOUTH.
CONSIDERING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR RAPIDLY PUSHING INTO THE
AREA (PER WATER VAPOR), THIS SCENARIO IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
REASONABLE. SO FORECAST POPS FOR TODAY WILL EMPHASIZE THE MORNING
HOURS, ANTICIPATING THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOR AFTERNOON, AND SKEW
HIGHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
HIGHS TODAY ARE TOUGH, AS ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COLD AS
MUCH AS DRY; SO MOS CONSENSUS OF UPPER 80S LOOKS GOOD.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE DRY AS DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL IN LIGHT OF DRIER-THAN-NORMAL DEWPOINTS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE DUE TO GOOD
INSOLATION AND DRY AIR. IN FACT, THE MOS CONSENSUS PUSHES HIGHS INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING MAKES A BRIEF
ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVER THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE GFS HAS AVERAGED
2-4 DEGREES TOO WARM THIS SUMMER (THE NAM WARM BIAS IS LESS
PRONOUNCED BUT STILL EXISTS) SO THE FORECAST WILL UNDERCUT THE MOS.

THE FLIRTATION WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY DEEP (3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL)
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY-MONDAY, WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE HUN CWFA MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASED RAIN/STORM POTENTIAL,
THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL MAY LIMIT COVERAGE. THE MESOSCALE SETUP
IS TYPICAL FOR JULY--DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LITTLE SHEAR.

BEHIND THE FRONT, ONCE AGAIN, A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (THROUGH WEDNESDAY) AS DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK (AGAIN) TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE GFSX MOS SEEMS TOO WARM IN
THIS REGIME, AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MODIFIED PERSISTENCE BASED ON
SIMILAR PATTERNS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FG WITH PERIODIC REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY TO IFR WILL OCCUR ALONG THE TN RIVER THRU ~14Z. THE CLOUDS
WILL LIFT INTO A SCT-BKN CUMULUS LAYER LATE THIS MORNING. ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP, BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM. A COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE N
THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH A CLEARING TREND AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 241000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA
HAS OPENED TO AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS
EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND AN UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY DEEPENS. THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROF WILL ALLOW A REINFORCING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
OVER TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO DROP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT SOME AREAS OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA
(WHERE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE GREATEST) WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS. DOWN CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEA BREEZE FORCING WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO
LATE EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING
PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHERN (COASTAL) THIRD OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST
AND NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE MODERATING AFFECTS OF THE GULF COME
INTO PLAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INTERIOR
COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FILLS..AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING MOVING EAST OVER
THE US/CA ROCKIES...AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EXPANDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...RESTORING ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS
HIGH (PRECIP H20 VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.75") AND HELP TO TEMPER THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMING AN INFLUENCE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. TEMPS A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED. WHAT THIS UPPER HIGH DOES IS TEMPER THE
CHANCE OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. POPS
START AROUND SEASONAL FOR FRIDAY AND DROP BELOW FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW THAT PASSED OVER THE US/CA ROCKIES MOVES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS RE-DIGS THE EASTERN TROUGH...ALONG WITH LETTING
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILD NORTH ALONG THE ROCKIES.
A FRONT GET PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...TO NORTHERN AL/MS BY MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE
GUIDANCE. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS A BIT BELOW ARE BEING
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER ENERGY CONTINUING TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH...THE SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED
SOUTH...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE
POPS...ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS COOL OFF A
BIT (MAINLY DUE TO THE RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND DRYING OUT OF
THE AIRMASS OVER THE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
(24/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH OVER MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH REGARD TO CIGS AND SFC VSBYS NEAR
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK REINFORCING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND INLAND FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED...
GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE  POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  91  74  92 /  50  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   88  75  90  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  78  88  77  89 /  50  20  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  93  71  93 /  50  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  93  72  94 /  30  30  30  10  20
CAMDEN      88  70  93  71  93 /  50  30  40  10  20
CRESTVIEW   91  70  92  71  93 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16






000
FXUS64 KMOB 241000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA
HAS OPENED TO AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS
EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND AN UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY DEEPENS. THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROF WILL ALLOW A REINFORCING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
OVER TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO DROP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT SOME AREAS OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA
(WHERE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE GREATEST) WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS. DOWN CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEA BREEZE FORCING WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO
LATE EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING
PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHERN (COASTAL) THIRD OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST
AND NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE MODERATING AFFECTS OF THE GULF COME
INTO PLAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INTERIOR
COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FILLS..AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING MOVING EAST OVER
THE US/CA ROCKIES...AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EXPANDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...RESTORING ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS
HIGH (PRECIP H20 VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.75") AND HELP TO TEMPER THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMING AN INFLUENCE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. TEMPS A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED. WHAT THIS UPPER HIGH DOES IS TEMPER THE
CHANCE OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. POPS
START AROUND SEASONAL FOR FRIDAY AND DROP BELOW FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW THAT PASSED OVER THE US/CA ROCKIES MOVES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS RE-DIGS THE EASTERN TROUGH...ALONG WITH LETTING
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILD NORTH ALONG THE ROCKIES.
A FRONT GET PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...TO NORTHERN AL/MS BY MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE
GUIDANCE. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS A BIT BELOW ARE BEING
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER ENERGY CONTINUING TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH...THE SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED
SOUTH...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE
POPS...ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS COOL OFF A
BIT (MAINLY DUE TO THE RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND DRYING OUT OF
THE AIRMASS OVER THE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
(24/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH OVER MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH REGARD TO CIGS AND SFC VSBYS NEAR
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK REINFORCING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND INLAND FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED...
GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE  POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  91  74  92 /  50  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   88  75  90  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  78  88  77  89 /  50  20  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  93  71  93 /  50  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  93  72  94 /  30  30  30  10  20
CAMDEN      88  70  93  71  93 /  50  30  40  10  20
CRESTVIEW   91  70  92  71  93 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16







000
FXUS64 KHUN 240852
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE ANOMALOUS JULY PATTERN CONTINUES, WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITTING JUST NORTH OF THE HUN CWFA AT 08Z. THIS WAS BEING
MARKED BY A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT
THIS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE CONVECTION, THE FOCUS NOW
SHIFTS TO FOG, AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VISIBILITY RAPIDLY DROP
OFF WITH CLEARING. THERE IS LITTLE DRY AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT; LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE STILL SITTING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE TN-KY STATE LINE.

BASED UPON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND CLEARING SKIES, AND THE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY, DENSE FOG SHOULD BECOME AN
INCREASING PROBLEM AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. SO WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY, WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM.

NEAR-TERM MODELS HAVE HAD A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION
SITUATION THIS MORNING, WITH SEVERAL INDICATING THE HUN CWFA GETTING
SPLIT BY WEAKENING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH (AS HAPPENED
BETWEEN 12-2AM) AND STORMS THAT RE-FIRE LATER TODAY TO THE SOUTH.
CONSIDERING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR RAPIDLY PUSHING INTO THE
AREA (PER WATER VAPOR), THIS SCENARIO IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
REASONABLE. SO FORECAST POPS FOR TODAY WILL EMPHASIZE THE MORNING
HOURS, ANTICIPATING THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOR AFTERNOON, AND SKEW
HIGHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
HIGHS TODAY ARE TOUGH, AS ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COLD AS
MUCH AS DRY; SO MOS CONSENSUS OF UPPER 80S LOOKS GOOD.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE DRY AS DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL IN LIGHT OF DRIER-THAN-NORMAL DEWPOINTS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE DUE TO GOOD
INSOLATION AND DRY AIR. IN FACT, THE MOS CONSENSUS PUSHES HIGHS INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING MAKES A BRIEF
ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVER THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE GFS HAS AVERAGED
2-4 DEGREES TOO WARM THIS SUMMER (THE NAM WARM BIAS IS LESS
PRONOUNCED BUT STILL EXISTS) SO THE FORECAST WILL UNDERCUT THE MOS.

THE FLIRTATION WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY DEEP (3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL)
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY-MONDAY, WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE HUN CWFA MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASED RAIN/STORM POTENTIAL,
THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL MAY LIMIT COVERAGE. THE MESOSCALE SETUP
IS TYPICAL FOR JULY--DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LITTLE SHEAR.

BEHIND THE FRONT, ONCE AGAIN, A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (THROUGH WEDNESDAY) AS DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK (AGAIN) TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE GFSX MOS SEEMS TOO WARM IN
THIS REGIME, AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MODIFIED PERSISTENCE BASED ON
SIMILAR PATTERNS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1157 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTH SAGS SOUTHWARD, MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA WILL ARRIVE AROUND
DAYBREAK, TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.
ASIDE FROM DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS FROM TSTORM ACTIVITY (IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE), VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FROM MIDDAY THRU THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    86  66  90  69 /  40  10   0  10
SHOALS        86  64  91  68 /  20  10   0  10
VINEMONT      85  64  88  67 /  50  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  82  63  88  65 /  30  10   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   85  66  87  68 /  50  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    84  64  88  65 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 240805
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
305 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WATCHING SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS TO TRY AND FIGURE OUT THE POPS
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IS LAGGING BEHIND
AND IS JUST INTO NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE. VERY LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SO WILL NEED A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING
TO GET SOME RAINFALL. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING AND ALONG WITH SOME HEATING...SHOULD GET SOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAPPEN FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH SINCE SOME OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALREADY PUSHING
INTO THE STATE. THE LATEST HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING THIS WITH THE BEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE BHM METRO AREA. WILL TWEAK
THE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCATTERED MAY BE THE BETTER WAY
TO GO.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS COMING IN MAY VERY WELL HANG UP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE PROBABLY DRY WITH VERY LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES AS THE STRONG WESTERN RIDGING BRIEFLY EXTENDS TOWARDS THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S MIXED IN AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN RIDGING BUILDS AND A DEEP TROUGH WILL
DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINNING MONDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE TWO OTHER COOL AIRMASSES
WE HAVE SEEN THIS JULY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE LOWER 80S TO MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH...LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S. SEE NO
REASON WHY THE COOLER TEMPS WANT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS FOR RAINFALL...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THEN DRY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BUT
WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO LOOK AT THAT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE WAS THE INCREASED
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HAD
PLENTY OF RAIN FALL NEAR THEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ADDED MOISTURE TO AN ALREADY SATURATED LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KNOCKED THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TO IFR BETWEEN 10-14Z WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
FOG.

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY. WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL INTRODUCE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MENTIONED SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TO DUE THE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING THE EXTENT OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDED VCTS AT 18Z. AT THIS TIME...MENTIONED ONLY
BRIEF MVFR SOUTH AT SUNRISE.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  68  88  68  92 /  40  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    86  70  90  69  91 /  60  20  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  71  92  71  92 /  50  10  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  89  70  93  70  93 /  60  10  10   0  10
CALERA      88  71  90  71  92 /  70  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      88  71  89  71  90 /  60  30  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  91  73  93  73  93 /  60  30  30  10  10
TROY        90  72  92  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 240805
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
305 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WATCHING SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS TO TRY AND FIGURE OUT THE POPS
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IS LAGGING BEHIND
AND IS JUST INTO NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE. VERY LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SO WILL NEED A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING
TO GET SOME RAINFALL. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING AND ALONG WITH SOME HEATING...SHOULD GET SOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAPPEN FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH SINCE SOME OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALREADY PUSHING
INTO THE STATE. THE LATEST HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING THIS WITH THE BEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE BHM METRO AREA. WILL TWEAK
THE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCATTERED MAY BE THE BETTER WAY
TO GO.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS COMING IN MAY VERY WELL HANG UP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE PROBABLY DRY WITH VERY LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES AS THE STRONG WESTERN RIDGING BRIEFLY EXTENDS TOWARDS THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S MIXED IN AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN RIDGING BUILDS AND A DEEP TROUGH WILL
DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINNING MONDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE TWO OTHER COOL AIRMASSES
WE HAVE SEEN THIS JULY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE LOWER 80S TO MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH...LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S. SEE NO
REASON WHY THE COOLER TEMPS WANT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS FOR RAINFALL...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THEN DRY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BUT
WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO LOOK AT THAT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE WAS THE INCREASED
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HAD
PLENTY OF RAIN FALL NEAR THEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ADDED MOISTURE TO AN ALREADY SATURATED LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KNOCKED THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TO IFR BETWEEN 10-14Z WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
FOG.

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY. WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL INTRODUCE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MENTIONED SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TO DUE THE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING THE EXTENT OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDED VCTS AT 18Z. AT THIS TIME...MENTIONED ONLY
BRIEF MVFR SOUTH AT SUNRISE.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  68  88  68  92 /  40  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    86  70  90  69  91 /  60  20  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  71  92  71  92 /  50  10  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  89  70  93  70  93 /  60  10  10   0  10
CALERA      88  71  90  71  92 /  70  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      88  71  89  71  90 /  60  30  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  91  73  93  73  93 /  60  30  30  10  10
TROY        90  72  92  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 240457 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 814 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON, A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. THE PREFRONTAL TROF
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE CWFA, WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT NOW IN THE VICINITY OF
NASHVILLE. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD THIS EVENING
PINPOINTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE
TN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY ORIENTED NE TO SW,
EXTENDING FROM JAMESTOWN TN SWWRD TO COLUMBIA TN, MOVING SLOWLY E/SE.
BOTH THE SREF AND HRRR SHOWED THIS DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE TWO HAVE VERY
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES BY DAYBREAK.

WHILE THE SREF CONTINUES TO ADVECT THIS CONVECTION SEWRD INTO THE
CWFA BY SUNRISE, THE HRRR CONTINUES WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY, COMPLETELY MISSING MOST OF OUR AREA
ALTOGETHER. THIS IS MAKING FOR A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST UPDATE
THIS EVENING REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR NOW, WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF AND HAVE MADE UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE RAINFALL/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FROM
EARLIER TODAY, HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTING TO FOLLOW IN
LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INCLUDED MAKING 50-POPS AREAWIDE, AND TWEAKING
THE QPF AS WELL. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL RESEND ALL OTHER UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTH SAGS SOUTHWARD, MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA WILL ARRIVE AROUND
DAYBREAK, TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.
ASIDE FROM DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS FROM TSTORM ACTIVITY (IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE), VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FROM MIDDAY THRU THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 240457 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 814 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON, A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. THE PREFRONTAL TROF
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE CWFA, WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT NOW IN THE VICINITY OF
NASHVILLE. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD THIS EVENING
PINPOINTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE
TN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY ORIENTED NE TO SW,
EXTENDING FROM JAMESTOWN TN SWWRD TO COLUMBIA TN, MOVING SLOWLY E/SE.
BOTH THE SREF AND HRRR SHOWED THIS DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE TWO HAVE VERY
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES BY DAYBREAK.

WHILE THE SREF CONTINUES TO ADVECT THIS CONVECTION SEWRD INTO THE
CWFA BY SUNRISE, THE HRRR CONTINUES WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY, COMPLETELY MISSING MOST OF OUR AREA
ALTOGETHER. THIS IS MAKING FOR A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST UPDATE
THIS EVENING REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR NOW, WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF AND HAVE MADE UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE RAINFALL/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FROM
EARLIER TODAY, HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTING TO FOLLOW IN
LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INCLUDED MAKING 50-POPS AREAWIDE, AND TWEAKING
THE QPF AS WELL. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL RESEND ALL OTHER UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTH SAGS SOUTHWARD, MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA WILL ARRIVE AROUND
DAYBREAK, TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.
ASIDE FROM DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS FROM TSTORM ACTIVITY (IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE), VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FROM MIDDAY THRU THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 240457 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 814 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON, A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. THE PREFRONTAL TROF
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE CWFA, WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT NOW IN THE VICINITY OF
NASHVILLE. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD THIS EVENING
PINPOINTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE
TN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY ORIENTED NE TO SW,
EXTENDING FROM JAMESTOWN TN SWWRD TO COLUMBIA TN, MOVING SLOWLY E/SE.
BOTH THE SREF AND HRRR SHOWED THIS DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE TWO HAVE VERY
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES BY DAYBREAK.

WHILE THE SREF CONTINUES TO ADVECT THIS CONVECTION SEWRD INTO THE
CWFA BY SUNRISE, THE HRRR CONTINUES WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY, COMPLETELY MISSING MOST OF OUR AREA
ALTOGETHER. THIS IS MAKING FOR A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST UPDATE
THIS EVENING REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR NOW, WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF AND HAVE MADE UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE RAINFALL/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FROM
EARLIER TODAY, HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTING TO FOLLOW IN
LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INCLUDED MAKING 50-POPS AREAWIDE, AND TWEAKING
THE QPF AS WELL. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL RESEND ALL OTHER UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTH SAGS SOUTHWARD, MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA WILL ARRIVE AROUND
DAYBREAK, TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.
ASIDE FROM DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS FROM TSTORM ACTIVITY (IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE), VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FROM MIDDAY THRU THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 240457 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 814 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON, A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. THE PREFRONTAL TROF
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE CWFA, WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT NOW IN THE VICINITY OF
NASHVILLE. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD THIS EVENING
PINPOINTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE
TN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY ORIENTED NE TO SW,
EXTENDING FROM JAMESTOWN TN SWWRD TO COLUMBIA TN, MOVING SLOWLY E/SE.
BOTH THE SREF AND HRRR SHOWED THIS DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE TWO HAVE VERY
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES BY DAYBREAK.

WHILE THE SREF CONTINUES TO ADVECT THIS CONVECTION SEWRD INTO THE
CWFA BY SUNRISE, THE HRRR CONTINUES WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY, COMPLETELY MISSING MOST OF OUR AREA
ALTOGETHER. THIS IS MAKING FOR A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST UPDATE
THIS EVENING REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR NOW, WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF AND HAVE MADE UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE RAINFALL/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FROM
EARLIER TODAY, HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTING TO FOLLOW IN
LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INCLUDED MAKING 50-POPS AREAWIDE, AND TWEAKING
THE QPF AS WELL. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL RESEND ALL OTHER UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTH SAGS SOUTHWARD, MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA WILL ARRIVE AROUND
DAYBREAK, TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.
ASIDE FROM DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS FROM TSTORM ACTIVITY (IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE), VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FROM MIDDAY THRU THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 240438 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION [24.06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS START
OFF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A CALM TO
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW PATTERN. SCATTERED MID MORNING SHRA/TSRA
FORECAST ON THURSDAY. /10

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

.UPDATE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE
HIGH LEVEL FLOW/TROF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE WEAKNESS...A FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC BACK INTO OKLAHOMA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS ROLLING SOUTHWARD AROUND 30 KNOTS
OVER ARKANSAS EARLIER IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP WARMING
NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A NET GENERAL WEAKENING OF STORMS
IS OCCURRING FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN HALF OF LOUISIANA TO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. VERY LITTLE ON THE RADAR SCOPE FURTHER TO THE EAST
OVER OUR AREA WITH ONLY A POP-UP SHOWER/STORM HERE AND THERE.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING HIGH (~1.9 INCHES)...WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH FROM ANY ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE TO
KICKOFF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INITIALLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 INTERIOR TO THE UPPER HALF OF THE
70S CLOSE TO THE BEACHES. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  92  72  91  73 /  20  40  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   75  92  75  89  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      77  90  76  88  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  93  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  68  92  69  93  70 /  20  30  30  20  10
CAMDEN      69  89  70  93  71 /  20  60  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   70  93  72  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 240438 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION [24.06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS START
OFF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A CALM TO
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW PATTERN. SCATTERED MID MORNING SHRA/TSRA
FORECAST ON THURSDAY. /10

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

.UPDATE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE
HIGH LEVEL FLOW/TROF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE WEAKNESS...A FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC BACK INTO OKLAHOMA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS ROLLING SOUTHWARD AROUND 30 KNOTS
OVER ARKANSAS EARLIER IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP WARMING
NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A NET GENERAL WEAKENING OF STORMS
IS OCCURRING FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN HALF OF LOUISIANA TO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. VERY LITTLE ON THE RADAR SCOPE FURTHER TO THE EAST
OVER OUR AREA WITH ONLY A POP-UP SHOWER/STORM HERE AND THERE.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING HIGH (~1.9 INCHES)...WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH FROM ANY ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE TO
KICKOFF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INITIALLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 INTERIOR TO THE UPPER HALF OF THE
70S CLOSE TO THE BEACHES. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  92  72  91  73 /  20  40  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   75  92  75  89  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      77  90  76  88  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  93  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  68  92  69  93  70 /  20  30  30  20  10
CAMDEN      69  89  70  93  71 /  20  60  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   70  93  72  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 240435
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOOKING AT THE KBMX
00Z SOUNDING...THE AIRMASS THIS EVENING IS A BIT MORE STABLE THAN
WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY EVENING. LFC`S ARE HIGHER...SO IT WILL TAKE
MORE ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO PUSH THOSE PARCELS
UP A LITTLE HIGHER. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED BOUNDARIES OUT THERE
AT THE CURRENT TIME...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TODAY. PATCHY
FOG WAS THEREFORE ADDED AREAWIDE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

ALSO ON THE REGIONAL RADAR TONIGHT IS THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT`S PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO TENNESSEE. SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY COULD REACH INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE 7AM THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED
A CHANCE POP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
COMING SOUTHWARD AND IF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
IF THE FRONT IS QUICKER AND CONVECTION DOESN`T DEVELOP...OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT GET MANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP AT
ALL. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...THEN HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE`LL GO OVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE AND UPDATE OUR EXPECTED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IF NECESSARY. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE WAS THE INCREASED
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HAD
PLENTY OF RAIN FALL NEAR THEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ADDED MOISTURE TO AN ALREADY SATURATED LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KNOCKED THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TO IFR BETWEEN 10-14Z WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
FOG.

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY. WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL INTRODUCE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MENTIONED SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TO DUE THE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING THE EXTENT OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDED VCTS AT 18Z. AT THIS TIME...MENTIONED ONLY
BRIEF MVFR SOUTH AT SUNRISE.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

ANTICIPATE SEVERAL UNUSUAL FEATURES WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LOOKING OVER
THE CONUS...A LARGE CLOSED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
ROCKIES OUT WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT IS ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT NORTH AS THE FRONT PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER...AS THE 1 AM TO
7 AM TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP
REDEVELOP STORMS LATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FOR THURSDAY CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS OF AROUND 60% FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA WITH THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE REGION. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT A COUPLE OF
STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THAT TIME. BY
THURSDAY EVENING THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...
BUT THE SURFACE DEW POINT DECREASE LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY BEFORE 1 AM. WITH THE HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS COMPARED TO
TODAY. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE
GULF COAST OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES TO LESS THAN 20% FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT WARMER THOUGH...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
REESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND YET ANOTHER STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIODS AS THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH.

IF THIS SECOND FRONT SLOWS DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY...THEN IT WOULD MOVE
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...GIVING THE
ATMOSPHERE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE 35+ KT WINDS AT 6 KM LAG THE
FRONT BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRONG
INSTABILITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
NOT CONVINCED THE NECESSARY WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME...
BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH THIS SECOND FRONT HAVING A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING IT...
DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE ANY TROUBLE CLEARING THE STATE. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND
OF GREATLY UNDERCUTTING THE EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE (MEX) TEMPERATURES
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

77/GLEASON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  85  67  88  68 /  20  60  20  10   0
ANNISTON    71  85  69  88  69 /  20  60  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  72  86  70  89  71 /  20  60  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  70  91  70 /  20  60  10  10   0
CALERA      72  87  71  89  71 /  20  60  20  10   0
AUBURN      70  87  70  87  71 /  20  60  40  20  10
MONTGOMERY  72  90  72  91  73 /  10  60  30  20  10
TROY        69  89  71  89  71 /  10  60  30  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 240435
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOOKING AT THE KBMX
00Z SOUNDING...THE AIRMASS THIS EVENING IS A BIT MORE STABLE THAN
WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY EVENING. LFC`S ARE HIGHER...SO IT WILL TAKE
MORE ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO PUSH THOSE PARCELS
UP A LITTLE HIGHER. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED BOUNDARIES OUT THERE
AT THE CURRENT TIME...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TODAY. PATCHY
FOG WAS THEREFORE ADDED AREAWIDE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

ALSO ON THE REGIONAL RADAR TONIGHT IS THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT`S PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO TENNESSEE. SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY COULD REACH INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE 7AM THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED
A CHANCE POP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
COMING SOUTHWARD AND IF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
IF THE FRONT IS QUICKER AND CONVECTION DOESN`T DEVELOP...OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT GET MANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP AT
ALL. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...THEN HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE`LL GO OVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE AND UPDATE OUR EXPECTED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IF NECESSARY. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE WAS THE INCREASED
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HAD
PLENTY OF RAIN FALL NEAR THEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ADDED MOISTURE TO AN ALREADY SATURATED LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KNOCKED THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TO IFR BETWEEN 10-14Z WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
FOG.

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY. WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL INTRODUCE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MENTIONED SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TO DUE THE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING THE EXTENT OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDED VCTS AT 18Z. AT THIS TIME...MENTIONED ONLY
BRIEF MVFR SOUTH AT SUNRISE.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

ANTICIPATE SEVERAL UNUSUAL FEATURES WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LOOKING OVER
THE CONUS...A LARGE CLOSED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
ROCKIES OUT WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT IS ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT NORTH AS THE FRONT PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER...AS THE 1 AM TO
7 AM TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP
REDEVELOP STORMS LATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FOR THURSDAY CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS OF AROUND 60% FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA WITH THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE REGION. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT A COUPLE OF
STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THAT TIME. BY
THURSDAY EVENING THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...
BUT THE SURFACE DEW POINT DECREASE LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY BEFORE 1 AM. WITH THE HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS COMPARED TO
TODAY. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE
GULF COAST OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES TO LESS THAN 20% FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT WARMER THOUGH...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
REESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND YET ANOTHER STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIODS AS THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH.

IF THIS SECOND FRONT SLOWS DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY...THEN IT WOULD MOVE
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...GIVING THE
ATMOSPHERE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE 35+ KT WINDS AT 6 KM LAG THE
FRONT BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRONG
INSTABILITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
NOT CONVINCED THE NECESSARY WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME...
BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH THIS SECOND FRONT HAVING A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING IT...
DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE ANY TROUBLE CLEARING THE STATE. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND
OF GREATLY UNDERCUTTING THE EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE (MEX) TEMPERATURES
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

77/GLEASON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  85  67  88  68 /  20  60  20  10   0
ANNISTON    71  85  69  88  69 /  20  60  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  72  86  70  89  71 /  20  60  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  70  91  70 /  20  60  10  10   0
CALERA      72  87  71  89  71 /  20  60  20  10   0
AUBURN      70  87  70  87  71 /  20  60  40  20  10
MONTGOMERY  72  90  72  91  73 /  10  60  30  20  10
TROY        69  89  71  89  71 /  10  60  30  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 240344
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1044 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOOKING AT THE KBMX
00Z SOUNDING...THE AIRMASS THIS EVENING IS A BIT MORE STABLE THAN
WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY EVENING. LFC`S ARE HIGHER...SO IT WILL TAKE
MORE ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO PUSH THOSE PARCELS
UP A LITTLE HIGHER. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED BOUNDARIES OUT THERE
AT THE CURRENT TIME...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TODAY. PATCHY
FOG WAS THEREFORE ADDED AREAWIDE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

ALSO ON THE REGIONAL RADAR TONIGHT IS THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT`S PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO TENNESSEE. SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY COULD REACH INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE 7AM THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED
A CHANCE POP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
COMING SOUTHWARD AND IF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
IF THE FRONT IS QUICKER AND CONVECTION DOESN`T DEVELOP...OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT GET MANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP AT
ALL. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...THEN HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE`LL GO OVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE AND UPDATE OUR EXPECTED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IF NECESSARY. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MIXTURE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AT
00Z. KNOCKED VIS DOWN TO MVFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW
015. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CHAOTIC
CONVECTIVE REMNANT CLOUDS. KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT MOST PLACES
AFTER 06Z WITH AGAIN ONLY SCATTERED BELOW 010. WILL MONITOR
DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING BUT THE LIFT REQUIRED FOR WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS DOES NOT APPEAR AVAILABLE. SOME 035 CLOUDS MAY APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND ONLY HAVE AT BHM AT THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING. ADDED
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN SITES AT 14-15Z AND NOT TIL 20Z
FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES.

VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS THEREAFTER. WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
THURSDAY AROUND 7KTS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

ANTICIPATE SEVERAL UNUSUAL FEATURES WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LOOKING OVER
THE CONUS...A LARGE CLOSED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
ROCKIES OUT WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT IS ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT NORTH AS THE FRONT PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER...AS THE 1 AM TO
7 AM TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP
REDEVELOP STORMS LATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FOR THURSDAY CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS OF AROUND 60% FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA WITH THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE REGION. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT A COUPLE OF
STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THAT TIME. BY
THURSDAY EVENING THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...
BUT THE SURFACE DEW POINT DECREASE LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY BEFORE 1 AM. WITH THE HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS COMPARED TO
TODAY. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE
GULF COAST OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES TO LESS THAN 20% FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT WARMER THOUGH...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
REESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND YET ANOTHER STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIODS AS THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH.

IF THIS SECOND FRONT SLOWS DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY...THEN IT WOULD MOVE
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...GIVING THE
ATMOSPHERE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE 35+ KT WINDS AT 6 KM LAG THE
FRONT BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRONG
INSTABILITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
NOT CONVINCED THE NECESSARY WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME...
BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH THIS SECOND FRONT HAVING A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING IT...
DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE ANY TROUBLE CLEARING THE STATE. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND
OF GREATLY UNDERCUTTING THE EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE (MEX) TEMPERATURES
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

77/GLEASON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  85  67  88  68 /  20  60  20  10   0
ANNISTON    71  85  69  88  69 /  20  60  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  72  86  70  89  71 /  20  60  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  70  91  70 /  20  60  10  10   0
CALERA      72  87  71  89  71 /  20  60  20  10   0
AUBURN      70  87  70  87  71 /  20  60  40  20  10
MONTGOMERY  72  90  72  91  73 /  10  60  30  20  10
TROY        69  89  71  89  71 /  10  60  30  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 240344
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1044 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOOKING AT THE KBMX
00Z SOUNDING...THE AIRMASS THIS EVENING IS A BIT MORE STABLE THAN
WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY EVENING. LFC`S ARE HIGHER...SO IT WILL TAKE
MORE ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO PUSH THOSE PARCELS
UP A LITTLE HIGHER. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED BOUNDARIES OUT THERE
AT THE CURRENT TIME...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TODAY. PATCHY
FOG WAS THEREFORE ADDED AREAWIDE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

ALSO ON THE REGIONAL RADAR TONIGHT IS THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT`S PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO TENNESSEE. SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY COULD REACH INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE 7AM THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED
A CHANCE POP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
COMING SOUTHWARD AND IF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
IF THE FRONT IS QUICKER AND CONVECTION DOESN`T DEVELOP...OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT GET MANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP AT
ALL. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...THEN HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE`LL GO OVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE AND UPDATE OUR EXPECTED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IF NECESSARY. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MIXTURE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AT
00Z. KNOCKED VIS DOWN TO MVFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW
015. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CHAOTIC
CONVECTIVE REMNANT CLOUDS. KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT MOST PLACES
AFTER 06Z WITH AGAIN ONLY SCATTERED BELOW 010. WILL MONITOR
DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING BUT THE LIFT REQUIRED FOR WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS DOES NOT APPEAR AVAILABLE. SOME 035 CLOUDS MAY APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND ONLY HAVE AT BHM AT THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING. ADDED
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN SITES AT 14-15Z AND NOT TIL 20Z
FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES.

VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS THEREAFTER. WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
THURSDAY AROUND 7KTS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

ANTICIPATE SEVERAL UNUSUAL FEATURES WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LOOKING OVER
THE CONUS...A LARGE CLOSED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
ROCKIES OUT WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT IS ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT NORTH AS THE FRONT PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER...AS THE 1 AM TO
7 AM TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP
REDEVELOP STORMS LATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FOR THURSDAY CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS OF AROUND 60% FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA WITH THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE REGION. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT A COUPLE OF
STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THAT TIME. BY
THURSDAY EVENING THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...
BUT THE SURFACE DEW POINT DECREASE LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY BEFORE 1 AM. WITH THE HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS COMPARED TO
TODAY. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE
GULF COAST OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES TO LESS THAN 20% FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT WARMER THOUGH...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
REESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND YET ANOTHER STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIODS AS THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH.

IF THIS SECOND FRONT SLOWS DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY...THEN IT WOULD MOVE
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...GIVING THE
ATMOSPHERE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE 35+ KT WINDS AT 6 KM LAG THE
FRONT BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRONG
INSTABILITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
NOT CONVINCED THE NECESSARY WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME...
BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH THIS SECOND FRONT HAVING A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING IT...
DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE ANY TROUBLE CLEARING THE STATE. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND
OF GREATLY UNDERCUTTING THE EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE (MEX) TEMPERATURES
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

77/GLEASON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  85  67  88  68 /  20  60  20  10   0
ANNISTON    71  85  69  88  69 /  20  60  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  72  86  70  89  71 /  20  60  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  70  91  70 /  20  60  10  10   0
CALERA      72  87  71  89  71 /  20  60  20  10   0
AUBURN      70  87  70  87  71 /  20  60  40  20  10
MONTGOMERY  72  90  72  91  73 /  10  60  30  20  10
TROY        69  89  71  89  71 /  10  60  30  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 240344
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1044 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOOKING AT THE KBMX
00Z SOUNDING...THE AIRMASS THIS EVENING IS A BIT MORE STABLE THAN
WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY EVENING. LFC`S ARE HIGHER...SO IT WILL TAKE
MORE ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO PUSH THOSE PARCELS
UP A LITTLE HIGHER. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED BOUNDARIES OUT THERE
AT THE CURRENT TIME...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TODAY. PATCHY
FOG WAS THEREFORE ADDED AREAWIDE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

ALSO ON THE REGIONAL RADAR TONIGHT IS THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT`S PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO TENNESSEE. SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY COULD REACH INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE 7AM THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED
A CHANCE POP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
COMING SOUTHWARD AND IF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
IF THE FRONT IS QUICKER AND CONVECTION DOESN`T DEVELOP...OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT GET MANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP AT
ALL. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...THEN HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE`LL GO OVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE AND UPDATE OUR EXPECTED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IF NECESSARY. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MIXTURE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AT
00Z. KNOCKED VIS DOWN TO MVFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW
015. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CHAOTIC
CONVECTIVE REMNANT CLOUDS. KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT MOST PLACES
AFTER 06Z WITH AGAIN ONLY SCATTERED BELOW 010. WILL MONITOR
DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING BUT THE LIFT REQUIRED FOR WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS DOES NOT APPEAR AVAILABLE. SOME 035 CLOUDS MAY APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND ONLY HAVE AT BHM AT THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING. ADDED
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN SITES AT 14-15Z AND NOT TIL 20Z
FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES.

VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS THEREAFTER. WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
THURSDAY AROUND 7KTS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

ANTICIPATE SEVERAL UNUSUAL FEATURES WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LOOKING OVER
THE CONUS...A LARGE CLOSED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
ROCKIES OUT WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT IS ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT NORTH AS THE FRONT PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER...AS THE 1 AM TO
7 AM TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP
REDEVELOP STORMS LATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FOR THURSDAY CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS OF AROUND 60% FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA WITH THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE REGION. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT A COUPLE OF
STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THAT TIME. BY
THURSDAY EVENING THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...
BUT THE SURFACE DEW POINT DECREASE LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY BEFORE 1 AM. WITH THE HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS COMPARED TO
TODAY. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE
GULF COAST OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES TO LESS THAN 20% FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT WARMER THOUGH...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
REESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND YET ANOTHER STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIODS AS THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH.

IF THIS SECOND FRONT SLOWS DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY...THEN IT WOULD MOVE
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...GIVING THE
ATMOSPHERE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE 35+ KT WINDS AT 6 KM LAG THE
FRONT BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRONG
INSTABILITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
NOT CONVINCED THE NECESSARY WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME...
BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH THIS SECOND FRONT HAVING A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING IT...
DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE ANY TROUBLE CLEARING THE STATE. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND
OF GREATLY UNDERCUTTING THE EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE (MEX) TEMPERATURES
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

77/GLEASON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  85  67  88  68 /  20  60  20  10   0
ANNISTON    71  85  69  88  69 /  20  60  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  72  86  70  89  71 /  20  60  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  70  91  70 /  20  60  10  10   0
CALERA      72  87  71  89  71 /  20  60  20  10   0
AUBURN      70  87  70  87  71 /  20  60  40  20  10
MONTGOMERY  72  90  72  91  73 /  10  60  30  20  10
TROY        69  89  71  89  71 /  10  60  30  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 240344
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1044 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOOKING AT THE KBMX
00Z SOUNDING...THE AIRMASS THIS EVENING IS A BIT MORE STABLE THAN
WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY EVENING. LFC`S ARE HIGHER...SO IT WILL TAKE
MORE ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO PUSH THOSE PARCELS
UP A LITTLE HIGHER. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED BOUNDARIES OUT THERE
AT THE CURRENT TIME...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TODAY. PATCHY
FOG WAS THEREFORE ADDED AREAWIDE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

ALSO ON THE REGIONAL RADAR TONIGHT IS THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT`S PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO TENNESSEE. SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY COULD REACH INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE 7AM THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED
A CHANCE POP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
COMING SOUTHWARD AND IF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
IF THE FRONT IS QUICKER AND CONVECTION DOESN`T DEVELOP...OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT GET MANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP AT
ALL. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...THEN HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE`LL GO OVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE AND UPDATE OUR EXPECTED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IF NECESSARY. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MIXTURE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AT
00Z. KNOCKED VIS DOWN TO MVFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW
015. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CHAOTIC
CONVECTIVE REMNANT CLOUDS. KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT MOST PLACES
AFTER 06Z WITH AGAIN ONLY SCATTERED BELOW 010. WILL MONITOR
DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING BUT THE LIFT REQUIRED FOR WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS DOES NOT APPEAR AVAILABLE. SOME 035 CLOUDS MAY APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND ONLY HAVE AT BHM AT THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING. ADDED
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN SITES AT 14-15Z AND NOT TIL 20Z
FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES.

VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS THEREAFTER. WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
THURSDAY AROUND 7KTS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

ANTICIPATE SEVERAL UNUSUAL FEATURES WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LOOKING OVER
THE CONUS...A LARGE CLOSED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
ROCKIES OUT WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT IS ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT NORTH AS THE FRONT PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER...AS THE 1 AM TO
7 AM TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP
REDEVELOP STORMS LATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FOR THURSDAY CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS OF AROUND 60% FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA WITH THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE REGION. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT A COUPLE OF
STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THAT TIME. BY
THURSDAY EVENING THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...
BUT THE SURFACE DEW POINT DECREASE LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY BEFORE 1 AM. WITH THE HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS COMPARED TO
TODAY. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE
GULF COAST OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES TO LESS THAN 20% FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT WARMER THOUGH...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
REESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND YET ANOTHER STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIODS AS THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH.

IF THIS SECOND FRONT SLOWS DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY...THEN IT WOULD MOVE
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...GIVING THE
ATMOSPHERE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE 35+ KT WINDS AT 6 KM LAG THE
FRONT BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRONG
INSTABILITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
NOT CONVINCED THE NECESSARY WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME...
BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH THIS SECOND FRONT HAVING A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING IT...
DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE ANY TROUBLE CLEARING THE STATE. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND
OF GREATLY UNDERCUTTING THE EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE (MEX) TEMPERATURES
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

77/GLEASON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  85  67  88  68 /  20  60  20  10   0
ANNISTON    71  85  69  88  69 /  20  60  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  72  86  70  89  71 /  20  60  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  70  91  70 /  20  60  10  10   0
CALERA      72  87  71  89  71 /  20  60  20  10   0
AUBURN      70  87  70  87  71 /  20  60  40  20  10
MONTGOMERY  72  90  72  91  73 /  10  60  30  20  10
TROY        69  89  71  89  71 /  10  60  30  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 240234 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
934 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE
HIGH LEVEL FLOW/TROF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE WEAKNESS...A FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC BACK INTO OKLAHOMA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS ROLLING SOUTHWARD AROUND 30 KNOTS
OVER ARKANSAS EARLIER IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP WARMING
NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A NET GENERAL WEAKENING OF STORMS
IS OCCURRING FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN HALF OF LOUISIANA TO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. VERY LITTLE ON THE RADAR SCOPE FURTHER TO THE EAST
OVER OUR AREA WITH ONLY A POP-UP SHOWER/STORM HERE AND THERE.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING HIGH (~1.9 INCHES)...WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH FROM ANY ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE TO
KICKOFF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INITIALLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 INTERIOR TO THE UPPER HALF OF THE
70S CLOSE TO THE BEACHES. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION [24.00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A LARGE COMPLEX OF CONVECTION WAS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD AROUND 30 KNOTS ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM.
OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. COULD
BE SOME MID/HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN.
SCATTERED MID MORNING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM [THURSDAY]...SURFACE FRONT LINKED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING DYNAMIC FORCING INTO PLAY IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE WRF-ARW INDICATE
IT WILL STAY HUMID THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.8 INCHES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LI AROUND -4...AND CAPE 1600-2800 J/KG IS
EXPECTED...SO WE BELIEVE A LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG OUR NORTHERN
BOUNDARY IS APPROPRIATE AND WILL VERIFY WELL. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST THAT HAS BEEN A BIG
PLAYER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THAT
TROUGH...AND WE BELIEVE THE SEABREEZE SHOULD STAY IN THE SCENE...
BRINGING A 40% CATEGORY ALONG THE SHORELINE. POP ABOUT 30 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. 10/77

[THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM HATTIESBURG MS TO
CAMDEN AL. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STALLED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MEDIUM AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
NEAR THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...BUT MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
STALLED FRONT..AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...BUT AGAIN MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF.

LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 73
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE EAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL
COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY MORE
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BRING
SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET AS PER RENDERED BY SWAN OUTPUT. THIS VERIFIES
CLOSELY WITH BRETSCHNEIDER METHODOLOGY. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  92  72  91  73 /  20  40  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   75  92  75  89  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      77  90  76  88  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  93  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  68  92  69  93  70 /  20  30  30  20  10
CAMDEN      69  89  70  93  71 /  20  60  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   70  93  72  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 240234 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
934 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE
HIGH LEVEL FLOW/TROF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE WEAKNESS...A FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC BACK INTO OKLAHOMA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS ROLLING SOUTHWARD AROUND 30 KNOTS
OVER ARKANSAS EARLIER IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP WARMING
NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A NET GENERAL WEAKENING OF STORMS
IS OCCURRING FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN HALF OF LOUISIANA TO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. VERY LITTLE ON THE RADAR SCOPE FURTHER TO THE EAST
OVER OUR AREA WITH ONLY A POP-UP SHOWER/STORM HERE AND THERE.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING HIGH (~1.9 INCHES)...WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH FROM ANY ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE TO
KICKOFF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INITIALLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 INTERIOR TO THE UPPER HALF OF THE
70S CLOSE TO THE BEACHES. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION [24.00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A LARGE COMPLEX OF CONVECTION WAS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD AROUND 30 KNOTS ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM.
OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. COULD
BE SOME MID/HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN.
SCATTERED MID MORNING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM [THURSDAY]...SURFACE FRONT LINKED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING DYNAMIC FORCING INTO PLAY IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE WRF-ARW INDICATE
IT WILL STAY HUMID THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.8 INCHES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LI AROUND -4...AND CAPE 1600-2800 J/KG IS
EXPECTED...SO WE BELIEVE A LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG OUR NORTHERN
BOUNDARY IS APPROPRIATE AND WILL VERIFY WELL. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST THAT HAS BEEN A BIG
PLAYER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THAT
TROUGH...AND WE BELIEVE THE SEABREEZE SHOULD STAY IN THE SCENE...
BRINGING A 40% CATEGORY ALONG THE SHORELINE. POP ABOUT 30 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. 10/77

[THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM HATTIESBURG MS TO
CAMDEN AL. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STALLED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MEDIUM AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
NEAR THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...BUT MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
STALLED FRONT..AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...BUT AGAIN MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF.

LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 73
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE EAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL
COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY MORE
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BRING
SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET AS PER RENDERED BY SWAN OUTPUT. THIS VERIFIES
CLOSELY WITH BRETSCHNEIDER METHODOLOGY. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  92  72  91  73 /  20  40  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   75  92  75  89  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      77  90  76  88  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  93  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  68  92  69  93  70 /  20  30  30  20  10
CAMDEN      69  89  70  93  71 /  20  60  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   70  93  72  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 240114 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
814 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON, A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. THE PREFRONTAL TROF
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE CWFA, WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT NOW IN THE VICINITY OF
NASHVILLE. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD THIS EVENING
PINPOINTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE
TN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY ORIENTED NE TO SW,
EXTENDING FROM JAMESTOWN TN SWWRD TO COLUMBIA TN, MOVING SLOWLY E/SE.
BOTH THE SREF AND HRRR SHOWED THIS DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE TWO HAVE VERY
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES BY DAYBREAK.

WHILE THE SREF CONTINUES TO ADVECT THIS CONVECTION SEWRD INTO THE
CWFA BY SUNRISE, THE HRRR CONTINUES WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY, COMPLETELY MISSING MOST OF OUR AREA
ALTOGETHER. THIS IS MAKING FOR A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST UPDATE
THIS EVENING REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR NOW, WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF AND HAVE MADE UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE RAINFALL/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FROM
EARLIER TODAY, HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTING TO FOLLOW IN
LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INCLUDED MAKING 50-POPS AREAWIDE, AND TWEAKING
THE QPF AS WELL. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL RESEND ALL OTHER UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU MIDNIGHT WHEN TSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KMSL/KHSV. A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF
STORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. STORMS WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY, WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF AT BOTH SITES BY 21Z. ASIDE FROM MVFR CONDS IN TSTORM
ACTIVITY DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS, VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 240114 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
814 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON, A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. THE PREFRONTAL TROF
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE CWFA, WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT NOW IN THE VICINITY OF
NASHVILLE. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD THIS EVENING
PINPOINTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE
TN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY ORIENTED NE TO SW,
EXTENDING FROM JAMESTOWN TN SWWRD TO COLUMBIA TN, MOVING SLOWLY E/SE.
BOTH THE SREF AND HRRR SHOWED THIS DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE TWO HAVE VERY
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES BY DAYBREAK.

WHILE THE SREF CONTINUES TO ADVECT THIS CONVECTION SEWRD INTO THE
CWFA BY SUNRISE, THE HRRR CONTINUES WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY, COMPLETELY MISSING MOST OF OUR AREA
ALTOGETHER. THIS IS MAKING FOR A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST UPDATE
THIS EVENING REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR NOW, WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF AND HAVE MADE UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE RAINFALL/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FROM
EARLIER TODAY, HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTING TO FOLLOW IN
LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INCLUDED MAKING 50-POPS AREAWIDE, AND TWEAKING
THE QPF AS WELL. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL RESEND ALL OTHER UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU MIDNIGHT WHEN TSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KMSL/KHSV. A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF
STORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. STORMS WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY, WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF AT BOTH SITES BY 21Z. ASIDE FROM MVFR CONDS IN TSTORM
ACTIVITY DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS, VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 240114 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
814 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON, A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. THE PREFRONTAL TROF
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE CWFA, WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT NOW IN THE VICINITY OF
NASHVILLE. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD THIS EVENING
PINPOINTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE
TN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY ORIENTED NE TO SW,
EXTENDING FROM JAMESTOWN TN SWWRD TO COLUMBIA TN, MOVING SLOWLY E/SE.
BOTH THE SREF AND HRRR SHOWED THIS DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE TWO HAVE VERY
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES BY DAYBREAK.

WHILE THE SREF CONTINUES TO ADVECT THIS CONVECTION SEWRD INTO THE
CWFA BY SUNRISE, THE HRRR CONTINUES WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY, COMPLETELY MISSING MOST OF OUR AREA
ALTOGETHER. THIS IS MAKING FOR A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST UPDATE
THIS EVENING REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR NOW, WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF AND HAVE MADE UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE RAINFALL/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FROM
EARLIER TODAY, HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTING TO FOLLOW IN
LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INCLUDED MAKING 50-POPS AREAWIDE, AND TWEAKING
THE QPF AS WELL. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL RESEND ALL OTHER UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU MIDNIGHT WHEN TSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KMSL/KHSV. A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF
STORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. STORMS WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY, WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF AT BOTH SITES BY 21Z. ASIDE FROM MVFR CONDS IN TSTORM
ACTIVITY DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS, VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 240114 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
814 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON, A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. THE PREFRONTAL TROF
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE CWFA, WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT NOW IN THE VICINITY OF
NASHVILLE. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD THIS EVENING
PINPOINTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE
TN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY ORIENTED NE TO SW,
EXTENDING FROM JAMESTOWN TN SWWRD TO COLUMBIA TN, MOVING SLOWLY E/SE.
BOTH THE SREF AND HRRR SHOWED THIS DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE TWO HAVE VERY
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES BY DAYBREAK.

WHILE THE SREF CONTINUES TO ADVECT THIS CONVECTION SEWRD INTO THE
CWFA BY SUNRISE, THE HRRR CONTINUES WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY, COMPLETELY MISSING MOST OF OUR AREA
ALTOGETHER. THIS IS MAKING FOR A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST UPDATE
THIS EVENING REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR NOW, WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF AND HAVE MADE UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE RAINFALL/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FROM
EARLIER TODAY, HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTING TO FOLLOW IN
LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INCLUDED MAKING 50-POPS AREAWIDE, AND TWEAKING
THE QPF AS WELL. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL RESEND ALL OTHER UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU MIDNIGHT WHEN TSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KMSL/KHSV. A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF
STORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. STORMS WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY, WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF AT BOTH SITES BY 21Z. ASIDE FROM MVFR CONDS IN TSTORM
ACTIVITY DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS, VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 232346
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
646 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION [24.00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A LARGE COMPLEX OF CONVECTION WAS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD AROUND 30 KNOTS ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM.
OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. COULD
BE SOME MID/HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN.
SCATTERED MID MORNING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...CONVECTION
SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING BEFORE COLLAPSING BETWEEN
MID EVENING AND MIDNIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FURTHER INLAND UNTIL
SUNRISE THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY
IS A PRESENT CONTRIBUTOR. NEW ORLEANS 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LAYER
BETWEEN 1000 AND 500 MB IN WHICH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION STEADILY
INCREASES WITH HEIGHT. AS FOR THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT LINKED
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING DYNAMIC FORCING INTO
PLAY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THE WRF-ARW INDICATE IT WILL STAY HUMID THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.8
INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LI AROUND -4...AND CAPE 1600-2800 J/KG
IS EXPECTED...SO WE BELIEVE A LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG OUR NORTHERN
BOUNDARY IS APPROPRIATE AND WILL VERIFY WELL. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST THAT HAS BEEN A BIG
PLAYER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THAT
TROUGH...AND WE BELIEVE THE SEABREEZE SHOULD STAY IN THE SCENE
BRINGING A 40% CATEGORY ALONG THE SHORELINE. POP ABOUT 30 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. /77

[THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM HATTIESBURG MS TO
CAMDEN AL. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STALLED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MEDIUM AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
NEAR THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...BUT MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
STALLED FRONT..AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...BUT AGAIN MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF.

LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 73
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE EAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL
COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY MORE
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BRING
SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET AS PER RENDERED BY SWAN OUTPUT. THIS VERIFIES
CLOSELY WITH BRETSCHNEIDER METHODOLOGY. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  92  72  91  73 /  20  40  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   75  92  75  89  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      77  90  76  88  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  93  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  68  92  69  93  70 /  20  30  30  20  10
CAMDEN      69  89  70  93  71 /  20  60  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   70  93  72  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 232346
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
646 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION [24.00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A LARGE COMPLEX OF CONVECTION WAS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD AROUND 30 KNOTS ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM.
OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. COULD
BE SOME MID/HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW PATTERN.
SCATTERED MID MORNING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...CONVECTION
SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING BEFORE COLLAPSING BETWEEN
MID EVENING AND MIDNIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FURTHER INLAND UNTIL
SUNRISE THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY
IS A PRESENT CONTRIBUTOR. NEW ORLEANS 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LAYER
BETWEEN 1000 AND 500 MB IN WHICH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION STEADILY
INCREASES WITH HEIGHT. AS FOR THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT LINKED
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING DYNAMIC FORCING INTO
PLAY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THE WRF-ARW INDICATE IT WILL STAY HUMID THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.8
INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LI AROUND -4...AND CAPE 1600-2800 J/KG
IS EXPECTED...SO WE BELIEVE A LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG OUR NORTHERN
BOUNDARY IS APPROPRIATE AND WILL VERIFY WELL. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST THAT HAS BEEN A BIG
PLAYER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THAT
TROUGH...AND WE BELIEVE THE SEABREEZE SHOULD STAY IN THE SCENE
BRINGING A 40% CATEGORY ALONG THE SHORELINE. POP ABOUT 30 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. /77

[THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM HATTIESBURG MS TO
CAMDEN AL. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STALLED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MEDIUM AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
NEAR THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...BUT MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
STALLED FRONT..AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...BUT AGAIN MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF.

LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 73
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE EAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL
COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY MORE
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BRING
SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET AS PER RENDERED BY SWAN OUTPUT. THIS VERIFIES
CLOSELY WITH BRETSCHNEIDER METHODOLOGY. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  92  72  91  73 /  20  40  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   75  92  75  89  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      77  90  76  88  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  93  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  68  92  69  93  70 /  20  30  30  20  10
CAMDEN      69  89  70  93  71 /  20  60  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   70  93  72  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 232341 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH CULLMAN...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED STRONG AND MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER LAUDERDALE COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS WELL. IN BETWEEN...ACTIVITY
HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER BY
EARLIER CONVECTION.

THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG A PREFONTAL TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE OVER
EXTREME NW ALABAMA.

RUC13 HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO FAR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE
MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. BOTH GFS40 AND RUC13 SHOW A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BETWEEN 2
AM AND 7 AM...ALTHOUGH GFS40 DISSIPATES THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. RUC13 LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY GOING
WHILE SHIFTING IT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH CAPE
VALUES ALOFT REMAINING AROUND 1000 J/KG...THUS THE RUC13 POPS SEEM
MORE REASONABLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING SOME FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK FLOW EXPECTED UPSTREAM OF THE
FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING. THUS TAPERED POPS DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAKING OUT POPS ENTIRELY FOR EXTREME NW
ALABAMA. KEPT A 60 POP MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POP TO THE NORTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOL
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE CULLMAN COUNTY. A FEW CLOUDS COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...COOLER AIR DOES NOT PUSH INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL...BUT AN UPPER RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S QUICKLY
ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONGER SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY MODELS AND THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING.

VERY COOL AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU MIDNIGHT WHEN TSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KMSL/KHSV. A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF
STORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. STORMS WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY, WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF AT BOTH SITES BY 21Z. ASIDE FROM MVFR CONDS IN TSTORM
ACTIVITY DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS, VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 232341 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH CULLMAN...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED STRONG AND MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER LAUDERDALE COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS WELL. IN BETWEEN...ACTIVITY
HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER BY
EARLIER CONVECTION.

THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG A PREFONTAL TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE OVER
EXTREME NW ALABAMA.

RUC13 HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO FAR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE
MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. BOTH GFS40 AND RUC13 SHOW A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BETWEEN 2
AM AND 7 AM...ALTHOUGH GFS40 DISSIPATES THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. RUC13 LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY GOING
WHILE SHIFTING IT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH CAPE
VALUES ALOFT REMAINING AROUND 1000 J/KG...THUS THE RUC13 POPS SEEM
MORE REASONABLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING SOME FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK FLOW EXPECTED UPSTREAM OF THE
FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING. THUS TAPERED POPS DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAKING OUT POPS ENTIRELY FOR EXTREME NW
ALABAMA. KEPT A 60 POP MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POP TO THE NORTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOL
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE CULLMAN COUNTY. A FEW CLOUDS COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...COOLER AIR DOES NOT PUSH INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL...BUT AN UPPER RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S QUICKLY
ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONGER SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY MODELS AND THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING.

VERY COOL AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU MIDNIGHT WHEN TSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KMSL/KHSV. A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF
STORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. STORMS WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY, WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF AT BOTH SITES BY 21Z. ASIDE FROM MVFR CONDS IN TSTORM
ACTIVITY DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS, VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 232341 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH CULLMAN...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED STRONG AND MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER LAUDERDALE COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS WELL. IN BETWEEN...ACTIVITY
HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER BY
EARLIER CONVECTION.

THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG A PREFONTAL TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE OVER
EXTREME NW ALABAMA.

RUC13 HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO FAR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE
MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. BOTH GFS40 AND RUC13 SHOW A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BETWEEN 2
AM AND 7 AM...ALTHOUGH GFS40 DISSIPATES THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. RUC13 LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY GOING
WHILE SHIFTING IT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH CAPE
VALUES ALOFT REMAINING AROUND 1000 J/KG...THUS THE RUC13 POPS SEEM
MORE REASONABLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING SOME FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK FLOW EXPECTED UPSTREAM OF THE
FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING. THUS TAPERED POPS DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAKING OUT POPS ENTIRELY FOR EXTREME NW
ALABAMA. KEPT A 60 POP MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POP TO THE NORTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOL
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE CULLMAN COUNTY. A FEW CLOUDS COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...COOLER AIR DOES NOT PUSH INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL...BUT AN UPPER RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S QUICKLY
ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONGER SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY MODELS AND THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING.

VERY COOL AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU MIDNIGHT WHEN TSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KMSL/KHSV. A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF
STORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. STORMS WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY, WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF AT BOTH SITES BY 21Z. ASIDE FROM MVFR CONDS IN TSTORM
ACTIVITY DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS, VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 232341 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH CULLMAN...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED STRONG AND MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER LAUDERDALE COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS WELL. IN BETWEEN...ACTIVITY
HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER BY
EARLIER CONVECTION.

THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG A PREFONTAL TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE OVER
EXTREME NW ALABAMA.

RUC13 HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO FAR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE
MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. BOTH GFS40 AND RUC13 SHOW A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BETWEEN 2
AM AND 7 AM...ALTHOUGH GFS40 DISSIPATES THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. RUC13 LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY GOING
WHILE SHIFTING IT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH CAPE
VALUES ALOFT REMAINING AROUND 1000 J/KG...THUS THE RUC13 POPS SEEM
MORE REASONABLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING SOME FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK FLOW EXPECTED UPSTREAM OF THE
FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING. THUS TAPERED POPS DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAKING OUT POPS ENTIRELY FOR EXTREME NW
ALABAMA. KEPT A 60 POP MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POP TO THE NORTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOL
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE CULLMAN COUNTY. A FEW CLOUDS COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...COOLER AIR DOES NOT PUSH INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL...BUT AN UPPER RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S QUICKLY
ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONGER SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY MODELS AND THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING.

VERY COOL AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU MIDNIGHT WHEN TSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KMSL/KHSV. A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF
STORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. STORMS WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY, WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF AT BOTH SITES BY 21Z. ASIDE FROM MVFR CONDS IN TSTORM
ACTIVITY DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS, VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 232341
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANTICIPATE SEVERAL UNUSUAL FEATURES WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LOOKING OVER
THE CONUS...A LARGE CLOSED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
ROCKIES OUT WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT IS ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT NORTH AS THE FRONT PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER...AS THE 1 AM TO
7 AM TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP
REDEVELOP STORMS LATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FOR THURSDAY CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS OF AROUND 60% FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA WITH THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE REGION. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT A COUPLE OF
STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THAT TIME. BY
THURSDAY EVENING THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...
BUT THE SURFACE DEW POINT DECREASE LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY BEFORE 1 AM. WITH THE HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS COMPARED TO
TODAY. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE
GULF COAST OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES TO LESS THAN 20% FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT WARMER THOUGH...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
REESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND YET ANOTHER STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIODS AS THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH.

IF THIS SECOND FRONT SLOWS DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY...THEN IT WOULD MOVE
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...GIVING THE
ATMOSPHERE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE 35+ KT WINDS AT 6 KM LAG THE
FRONT BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRONG
INSTABILITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
NOT CONVINCED THE NECESSARY WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME...
BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH THIS SECOND FRONT HAVING A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING IT...
DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE ANY TROUBLE CLEARING THE STATE. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND
OF GREATLY UNDERCUTTING THE EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE (MEX) TEMPERATURES
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

77/GLEASON


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MIXTURE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AT
00Z. KNOCKED VIS DOWN TO MVFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW
015. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CHAOTIC
CONVECTIVE REMNANT CLOUDS. KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT MOST PLACES
AFTER 06Z WITH AGAIN ONLY SCATTERED BELOW 010. WILL MONITOR
DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING BUT THE LIFT REQUIRED FOR WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS DOES NOT APPEAR AVAILABLE. SOME 035 CLOUDS MAY APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND ONLY HAVE AT BHM AT THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING. ADDED
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN SITES AT 14-15Z AND NOT TIL 20Z
FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES.

VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS THEREAFTER. WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
THURSDAY AROUND 7KTS.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  85  67  88  68 /  60  60  20  10   0
ANNISTON    71  85  69  88  69 /  50  60  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  72  86  70  89  71 /  60  60  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  70  91  70 /  50  60  10  10   0
CALERA      72  87  71  89  71 /  50  60  20  10   0
AUBURN      70  87  70  87  71 /  20  60  40  20  10
MONTGOMERY  72  90  72  91  73 /  20  60  30  20  10
TROY        69  89  71  89  71 /  20  60  30  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 232341
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANTICIPATE SEVERAL UNUSUAL FEATURES WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LOOKING OVER
THE CONUS...A LARGE CLOSED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
ROCKIES OUT WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT IS ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT NORTH AS THE FRONT PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER...AS THE 1 AM TO
7 AM TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP
REDEVELOP STORMS LATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FOR THURSDAY CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS OF AROUND 60% FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA WITH THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE REGION. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT A COUPLE OF
STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THAT TIME. BY
THURSDAY EVENING THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...
BUT THE SURFACE DEW POINT DECREASE LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY BEFORE 1 AM. WITH THE HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS COMPARED TO
TODAY. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE
GULF COAST OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES TO LESS THAN 20% FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT WARMER THOUGH...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
REESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND YET ANOTHER STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIODS AS THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH.

IF THIS SECOND FRONT SLOWS DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY...THEN IT WOULD MOVE
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...GIVING THE
ATMOSPHERE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE 35+ KT WINDS AT 6 KM LAG THE
FRONT BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRONG
INSTABILITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
NOT CONVINCED THE NECESSARY WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME...
BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH THIS SECOND FRONT HAVING A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING IT...
DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE ANY TROUBLE CLEARING THE STATE. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND
OF GREATLY UNDERCUTTING THE EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE (MEX) TEMPERATURES
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

77/GLEASON


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MIXTURE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AT
00Z. KNOCKED VIS DOWN TO MVFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW
015. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CHAOTIC
CONVECTIVE REMNANT CLOUDS. KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT MOST PLACES
AFTER 06Z WITH AGAIN ONLY SCATTERED BELOW 010. WILL MONITOR
DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING BUT THE LIFT REQUIRED FOR WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS DOES NOT APPEAR AVAILABLE. SOME 035 CLOUDS MAY APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND ONLY HAVE AT BHM AT THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING. ADDED
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN SITES AT 14-15Z AND NOT TIL 20Z
FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES.

VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS THEREAFTER. WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
THURSDAY AROUND 7KTS.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  85  67  88  68 /  60  60  20  10   0
ANNISTON    71  85  69  88  69 /  50  60  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  72  86  70  89  71 /  60  60  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  70  91  70 /  50  60  10  10   0
CALERA      72  87  71  89  71 /  50  60  20  10   0
AUBURN      70  87  70  87  71 /  20  60  40  20  10
MONTGOMERY  72  90  72  91  73 /  20  60  30  20  10
TROY        69  89  71  89  71 /  20  60  30  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 232103
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
403 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH CULLMAN...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED STRONG AND MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER LAUDERDALE COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS WELL. IN BETWEEN ACTIVITY HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER BY EARLIER
CONVECTION.

THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG A PREFONTAL TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE OVER
EXTREME NW ALABAMA.

RUC13 HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO FAR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE
MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. BOTH GFS40 AND RUC13 SHOW A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BETWEEN 2
AM AND 7 AM...ALTHOUGH GFS40 DISSIPATES THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. RUC13 LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY GOING
WHILE SHIFTING IT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH CAPE
VALUES ALOFT REMAINING AROUND 1000 J/KG...THUS THE RUC13 POPS SEEM
MORE REASONABLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING SOME FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK FLOW EXPECTED UPSTREAM OF THE
FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING. THUS TAPERED POPS DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAKING OUT POPS ENTIRELY FOR EXTREME NW
ALABAMA. KEPT A 60 POP MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POP TO THE NORTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOL
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE CULLMAN COUNTY. A FEW CLOUDS COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...COOLER AIR DOES NOT PUSH INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL...BUT AN UPPER RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S QUICKLY
ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONGER SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY MODELS AND THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING.

VERY COOL AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEAK. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...COMBINATION OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AT BOTH TAF SITES HAVE KEPT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.
ALSO KEPT A WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIONAL WITH MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH MID AFTN AT KHSV BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND MESOSCALE TRENDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AND INCLUDED A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD. OVERALL WIND FIELD SHOULD BE
LIGHT ASIDE FROM BRIEFLY TURBULENT WITHIN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  83  65  91 /  60  60  10  10
SHOALS        72  84  64  92 /  60  30  10  10
VINEMONT      70  83  67  90 /  60  60  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  70  81  64  89 /  60  30  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   73  83  66  91 /  60  60  10  10
FORT PAYNE    68  83  65  91 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 232103
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
403 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH CULLMAN...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED STRONG AND MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER LAUDERDALE COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS WELL. IN BETWEEN ACTIVITY HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER BY EARLIER
CONVECTION.

THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG A PREFONTAL TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE OVER
EXTREME NW ALABAMA.

RUC13 HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO FAR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE
MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. BOTH GFS40 AND RUC13 SHOW A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BETWEEN 2
AM AND 7 AM...ALTHOUGH GFS40 DISSIPATES THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. RUC13 LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY GOING
WHILE SHIFTING IT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH CAPE
VALUES ALOFT REMAINING AROUND 1000 J/KG...THUS THE RUC13 POPS SEEM
MORE REASONABLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING SOME FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK FLOW EXPECTED UPSTREAM OF THE
FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING. THUS TAPERED POPS DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAKING OUT POPS ENTIRELY FOR EXTREME NW
ALABAMA. KEPT A 60 POP MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POP TO THE NORTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOL
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE CULLMAN COUNTY. A FEW CLOUDS COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...COOLER AIR DOES NOT PUSH INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL...BUT AN UPPER RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S QUICKLY
ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONGER SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY MODELS AND THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING.

VERY COOL AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEAK. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...COMBINATION OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AT BOTH TAF SITES HAVE KEPT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.
ALSO KEPT A WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIONAL WITH MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH MID AFTN AT KHSV BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND MESOSCALE TRENDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AND INCLUDED A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD. OVERALL WIND FIELD SHOULD BE
LIGHT ASIDE FROM BRIEFLY TURBULENT WITHIN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  83  65  91 /  60  60  10  10
SHOALS        72  84  64  92 /  60  30  10  10
VINEMONT      70  83  67  90 /  60  60  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  70  81  64  89 /  60  30  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   73  83  66  91 /  60  60  10  10
FORT PAYNE    68  83  65  91 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 232044
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
344 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...CONVECTION
SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING BEFORE COLLAPSING BETWEEN
MID EVENING AND MIDNIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FURTHER INLAND UNTIL
SUNRISE THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY
IS A PRESENT CONTRIBUTOR. NEW ORLEANS 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LAYER
BETWEEN 1000 AND 500 MB IN WHICH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION STEADILY
INCREASES WITH HEIGHT. AS FOR THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT LINKED
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING DYNAMIC FORCING INTO
PLAY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THE WRF-ARW INDICATE IT WILL STAY HUMID THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.8
INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LI AROUND -4...AND CAPE 1600-2800 J/KG
IS EXPECTED...SO WE BELIEVE A LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG OUR NORTHERN
BOUNDARY IS APPROPRIATE AND WILL VERIFY WELL. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST THAT HAS BEEN A BIG
PLAYER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THAT
TROUGH...AND WE BELIEVE THE SEABREEZE SHOULD STAY IN THE SCENE
BRINGING A 40% CATEGORY ALONG THE SHORELINE. POP ABOUT 30 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. /77

[THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM HATTIESBURG MS TO
CAMDEN AL. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STALLED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MEDIUM AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
NEAR THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...BUT MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
STALLED FRONT..AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...BUT AGAIN MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF.

LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 73
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE EAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL
COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS DISCUSSED FOR 23.18Z...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION INLAND HAS NOT REALLY
STARTED AS EXPECTED EVEN BY MID AFTERNOON SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
UNTIL POSSIBLY THIS EVENING. AS BEFORE...THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WOULD BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF AND ALONG INTERSTATE 10.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE MORE ACTIVE ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF
HERE IN CHOCTAW...WILCOX...BUTLER AND CRENSHAW COUNTIES. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY MORE
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BRING
SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET AS PER RENDERED BY SWAN OUTPUT. THIS VERIFIES
CLOSELY WITH BRETSCNEIDER METHODOLOGY. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  92  72  91  73 /  20  40  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   75  92  75  89  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      77  90  76  88  77 /  10  40  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  93  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  68  92  69  93  70 /  20  30  30  20  10
CAMDEN      69  89  70  93  71 /  20  60  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   70  93  72  92  71 /  20  40  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 232044
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
344 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...CONVECTION
SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING BEFORE COLLAPSING BETWEEN
MID EVENING AND MIDNIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FURTHER INLAND UNTIL
SUNRISE THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY
IS A PRESENT CONTRIBUTOR. NEW ORLEANS 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LAYER
BETWEEN 1000 AND 500 MB IN WHICH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION STEADILY
INCREASES WITH HEIGHT. AS FOR THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT LINKED
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING DYNAMIC FORCING INTO
PLAY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THE WRF-ARW INDICATE IT WILL STAY HUMID THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.8
INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LI AROUND -4...AND CAPE 1600-2800 J/KG
IS EXPECTED...SO WE BELIEVE A LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG OUR NORTHERN
BOUNDARY IS APPROPRIATE AND WILL VERIFY WELL. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST THAT HAS BEEN A BIG
PLAYER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THAT
TROUGH...AND WE BELIEVE THE SEABREEZE SHOULD STAY IN THE SCENE
BRINGING A 40% CATEGORY ALONG THE SHORELINE. POP ABOUT 30 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. /77

[THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM HATTIESBURG MS TO
CAMDEN AL. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STALLED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MEDIUM AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
NEAR THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...BUT MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
STALLED FRONT..AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...BUT AGAIN MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF.

LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 73
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE EAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL
COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS DISCUSSED FOR 23.18Z...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION INLAND HAS NOT REALLY
STARTED AS EXPECTED EVEN BY MID AFTERNOON SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
UNTIL POSSIBLY THIS EVENING. AS BEFORE...THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WOULD BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF AND ALONG INTERSTATE 10.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE MORE ACTIVE ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF
HERE IN CHOCTAW...WILCOX...BUTLER AND CRENSHAW COUNTIES. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY MORE
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BRING
SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET AS PER RENDERED BY SWAN OUTPUT. THIS VERIFIES
CLOSELY WITH BRETSCNEIDER METHODOLOGY. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  92  72  91  73 /  20  40  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   75  92  75  89  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      77  90  76  88  77 /  10  40  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  93  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  68  92  69  93  70 /  20  30  30  20  10
CAMDEN      69  89  70  93  71 /  20  60  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   70  93  72  92  71 /  20  40  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 232040
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ANTICIPATE SEVERAL UNUSUAL FEATURES WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LOOKING OVER
THE CONUS...A LARGE CLOSED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
ROCKIES OUT WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT IS ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT NORTH AS THE FRONT PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER...AS THE 1 AM TO
7 AM TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP
REDEVELOP STORMS LATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FOR THURSDAY CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS OF AROUND 60% FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA WITH THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE REGION. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT A COUPLE OF
STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THAT TIME. BY
THURSDAY EVENING THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...
BUT THE SURFACE DEW POINT DECREASE LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY BEFORE 1 AM. WITH THE HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WENT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS COMPARED TO
TODAY. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE
GULF COAST OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES TO LESS THAN 20% FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT WARMER THOUGH...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
REESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND YET ANOTHER STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIODS AS THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH.

IF THIS SECOND FRONT SLOWS DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY...THEN IT WOULD MOVE
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...GIVING THE
ATMOSPHERE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE 35+ KT WINDS AT 6 KM LAG THE
FRONT BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRONG
INSTABILITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
NOT CONVINCED THE NECESSARY WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME...
BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH THIS SECOND FRONT HAVING A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING IT...
DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE ANY TROUBLE CLEARING THE STATE. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND
OF GREATLY UNDERCUTTING THE EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE (MEX) TEMPERATURES
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

77/GLEASON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT THIS HOUR...AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS HAVE BEST RAIN CHANCES AND HAVE
ADDED SHRA TO THE VCTS AT TCL/BHM/EET/ANB. HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN
THE SOUTH AS RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THAT AREA. WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY THRU THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS BUT PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH PERSISTENCE AND HAVE MVFR VIS
MENTIONED AT TERMINALS THAT OBSERVED FOG LAST NIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  85  67  88  68 /  50  60  20  10   0
ANNISTON    71  85  69  88  69 /  30  60  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  72  86  70  89  71 /  40  60  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  70  91  70 /  30  60  10  10   0
CALERA      72  87  71  89  71 /  30  60  20  10   0
AUBURN      70  87  70  87  71 /  20  60  40  20  10
MONTGOMERY  72  90  72  91  73 /  20  60  30  20  10
TROY        69  89  71  89  71 /  20  60  30  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 231748
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TERMINAL FORECASTS BUT
CONVECTION INLAND HAS NOT REALLY STARTED AS EXPECTED BY NOW.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY VFR UNTIL MUCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AS BEFORE...THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF AND
ALONG INTERSTATE 10.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION NOT SPREADING AS RAPIDLY AS ANTICIPATED
OVER OUR INLAND ZONES EXCEPT SLIGHTLY INLAND ALONG THE SHORELINE. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY IS INCREASING OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR
DATA BUT NEEDED TO RECONFIGURE POPS A BIT DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR MARINE
ZONES AND SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORE GROWTH IN THE VERTICAL. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY IS INCREASING. NEW ORLEANS
SOUNDING IS INDICATING A LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSION (IF ONE SMOOTHS
THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRACES) BELOW 1000 MB AROUND ZERO
CELSIUS DEGREES...REMAINING SMALL FROM 1000 MB TO 500 MB...AND
STEADILY INCREASING FROM 500 TO 400 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST
TO BE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR DATA BUT RAISING POPS BEFORE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENCROACH OUR
MARINE ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR DATA IN THE EVENT WE HAVE TO RAISE POPS.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK...SO THE EVOLUTION TODAY WOULD LIKELY BE
CONTROLLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISTRIBUTION. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOTED BY SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND
OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROF LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS...THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKENING COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. EXPECT BEST CHANCES
TODAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO... WITH RELATIVELY COLD POCKET
OF AIR ALOFT...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN TODAY TOO. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING PASSING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE TAIL END GETS DRAWN WEST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS ALSO SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX
BACK EAST A BIT. A SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA BY FRIDAY EVE.

FOR THE FORECAST...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST
DAY...WITH POPS AROUND SEASONAL. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL GO WITH. THE
FA DRIES OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRETCHING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. WITH THE LESSENING
PRECIP...TEMPS RISE A BIT FROM THURSDAY...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
(23/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WITH REDUCED SFC VSBY
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS

MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  71  90  73  91 /  30  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  74  89  76  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      88  76  88  76  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  92 /  30  20  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  90  69  92  69  92 /  40  20  50  20  20
CAMDEN      91  69  91  70  93 /  30  20  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 231748
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TERMINAL FORECASTS BUT
CONVECTION INLAND HAS NOT REALLY STARTED AS EXPECTED BY NOW.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY VFR UNTIL MUCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AS BEFORE...THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF AND
ALONG INTERSTATE 10.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION NOT SPREADING AS RAPIDLY AS ANTICIPATED
OVER OUR INLAND ZONES EXCEPT SLIGHTLY INLAND ALONG THE SHORELINE. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY IS INCREASING OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR
DATA BUT NEEDED TO RECONFIGURE POPS A BIT DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR MARINE
ZONES AND SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORE GROWTH IN THE VERTICAL. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY IS INCREASING. NEW ORLEANS
SOUNDING IS INDICATING A LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSION (IF ONE SMOOTHS
THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRACES) BELOW 1000 MB AROUND ZERO
CELSIUS DEGREES...REMAINING SMALL FROM 1000 MB TO 500 MB...AND
STEADILY INCREASING FROM 500 TO 400 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST
TO BE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR DATA BUT RAISING POPS BEFORE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENCROACH OUR
MARINE ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR DATA IN THE EVENT WE HAVE TO RAISE POPS.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK...SO THE EVOLUTION TODAY WOULD LIKELY BE
CONTROLLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISTRIBUTION. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOTED BY SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND
OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROF LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS...THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKENING COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. EXPECT BEST CHANCES
TODAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO... WITH RELATIVELY COLD POCKET
OF AIR ALOFT...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN TODAY TOO. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING PASSING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE TAIL END GETS DRAWN WEST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS ALSO SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX
BACK EAST A BIT. A SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA BY FRIDAY EVE.

FOR THE FORECAST...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST
DAY...WITH POPS AROUND SEASONAL. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL GO WITH. THE
FA DRIES OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRETCHING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. WITH THE LESSENING
PRECIP...TEMPS RISE A BIT FROM THURSDAY...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
(23/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WITH REDUCED SFC VSBY
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS

MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  71  90  73  91 /  30  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  74  89  76  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      88  76  88  76  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  92 /  30  20  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  90  69  92  69  92 /  40  20  50  20  20
CAMDEN      91  69  91  70  93 /  30  20  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 231748
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TERMINAL FORECASTS BUT
CONVECTION INLAND HAS NOT REALLY STARTED AS EXPECTED BY NOW.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY VFR UNTIL MUCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AS BEFORE...THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF AND
ALONG INTERSTATE 10.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION NOT SPREADING AS RAPIDLY AS ANTICIPATED
OVER OUR INLAND ZONES EXCEPT SLIGHTLY INLAND ALONG THE SHORELINE. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY IS INCREASING OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR
DATA BUT NEEDED TO RECONFIGURE POPS A BIT DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR MARINE
ZONES AND SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORE GROWTH IN THE VERTICAL. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY IS INCREASING. NEW ORLEANS
SOUNDING IS INDICATING A LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSION (IF ONE SMOOTHS
THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRACES) BELOW 1000 MB AROUND ZERO
CELSIUS DEGREES...REMAINING SMALL FROM 1000 MB TO 500 MB...AND
STEADILY INCREASING FROM 500 TO 400 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST
TO BE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR DATA BUT RAISING POPS BEFORE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENCROACH OUR
MARINE ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR DATA IN THE EVENT WE HAVE TO RAISE POPS.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK...SO THE EVOLUTION TODAY WOULD LIKELY BE
CONTROLLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISTRIBUTION. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOTED BY SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND
OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROF LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS...THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKENING COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. EXPECT BEST CHANCES
TODAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO... WITH RELATIVELY COLD POCKET
OF AIR ALOFT...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN TODAY TOO. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING PASSING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE TAIL END GETS DRAWN WEST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS ALSO SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX
BACK EAST A BIT. A SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA BY FRIDAY EVE.

FOR THE FORECAST...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST
DAY...WITH POPS AROUND SEASONAL. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL GO WITH. THE
FA DRIES OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRETCHING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. WITH THE LESSENING
PRECIP...TEMPS RISE A BIT FROM THURSDAY...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
(23/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WITH REDUCED SFC VSBY
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS

MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  71  90  73  91 /  30  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  74  89  76  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      88  76  88  76  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  92 /  30  20  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  90  69  92  69  92 /  40  20  50  20  20
CAMDEN      91  69  91  70  93 /  30  20  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 231748
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TERMINAL FORECASTS BUT
CONVECTION INLAND HAS NOT REALLY STARTED AS EXPECTED BY NOW.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY VFR UNTIL MUCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AS BEFORE...THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF AND
ALONG INTERSTATE 10.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION NOT SPREADING AS RAPIDLY AS ANTICIPATED
OVER OUR INLAND ZONES EXCEPT SLIGHTLY INLAND ALONG THE SHORELINE. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY IS INCREASING OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR
DATA BUT NEEDED TO RECONFIGURE POPS A BIT DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR MARINE
ZONES AND SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORE GROWTH IN THE VERTICAL. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY IS INCREASING. NEW ORLEANS
SOUNDING IS INDICATING A LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSION (IF ONE SMOOTHS
THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRACES) BELOW 1000 MB AROUND ZERO
CELSIUS DEGREES...REMAINING SMALL FROM 1000 MB TO 500 MB...AND
STEADILY INCREASING FROM 500 TO 400 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST
TO BE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR DATA BUT RAISING POPS BEFORE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENCROACH OUR
MARINE ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR DATA IN THE EVENT WE HAVE TO RAISE POPS.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK...SO THE EVOLUTION TODAY WOULD LIKELY BE
CONTROLLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISTRIBUTION. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOTED BY SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND
OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROF LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS...THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKENING COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. EXPECT BEST CHANCES
TODAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO... WITH RELATIVELY COLD POCKET
OF AIR ALOFT...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN TODAY TOO. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING PASSING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE TAIL END GETS DRAWN WEST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS ALSO SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX
BACK EAST A BIT. A SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA BY FRIDAY EVE.

FOR THE FORECAST...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST
DAY...WITH POPS AROUND SEASONAL. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL GO WITH. THE
FA DRIES OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRETCHING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. WITH THE LESSENING
PRECIP...TEMPS RISE A BIT FROM THURSDAY...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
(23/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WITH REDUCED SFC VSBY
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS

MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  71  90  73  91 /  30  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  74  89  76  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      88  76  88  76  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  92 /  30  20  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  90  69  92  69  92 /  40  20  50  20  20
CAMDEN      91  69  91  70  93 /  30  20  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 231747 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 926 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM...JUST REMOVED THE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NE AL. OTHERWISE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 80S FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. LOOKS LIKE A HOT/HUMID DAY COMING UP WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. NO SVR WX EXPECTED BUT CANT
RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...COMBINATION OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AT BOTH TAF SITES HAVE KEPT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.
ALSO KEPT A WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIONAL WITH MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH MID AFTN AT KHSV BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND MESOSCALE TRENDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AND INCLUDED A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD. OVERALL WIND FIELD SHOULD BE
LIGHT ASIDE FROM BRIEFLY TURBULENT WITHIN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

15

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231747 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 926 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM...JUST REMOVED THE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NE AL. OTHERWISE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 80S FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. LOOKS LIKE A HOT/HUMID DAY COMING UP WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. NO SVR WX EXPECTED BUT CANT
RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...COMBINATION OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AT BOTH TAF SITES HAVE KEPT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.
ALSO KEPT A WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIONAL WITH MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH MID AFTN AT KHSV BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND MESOSCALE TRENDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AND INCLUDED A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD. OVERALL WIND FIELD SHOULD BE
LIGHT ASIDE FROM BRIEFLY TURBULENT WITHIN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

15

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 231746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CENTRAL ALABAMA STILL FINDS ITSELF ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
ARE LOCATED. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL AT THIS HOUR...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. SINCE WE STARTED THE DAY OFF WITH
MORE SUN THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT THIS HOUR...AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS HAVE BEST RAIN CHANCES AND HAVE
ADDED SHRA TO THE VCTS AT TCL/BHM/EET/ANB. HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN
THE SOUTH AS RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THAT AREA. WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY THRU THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS BUT PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH PERSISTENCE AND HAVE MVFR VIS
MENTIONED AT TERMINALS THAT OBSERVED FOG LAST NIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  86  68  87  68 /  40  60  10  10  10
ANNISTON    72  86  70  87  69 /  30  60  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  70  89  71 /  40  60  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  88  71  91  70 /  30  60  10  10  10
CALERA      72  87  71  89  71 /  30  60  10  10  10
AUBURN      71  87  70  87  71 /  20  60  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  72  90  73  91  73 /  20  60  30  20  10
TROY        71  90  71  89  71 /  20  60  40  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 231746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CENTRAL ALABAMA STILL FINDS ITSELF ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
ARE LOCATED. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL AT THIS HOUR...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. SINCE WE STARTED THE DAY OFF WITH
MORE SUN THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT THIS HOUR...AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS HAVE BEST RAIN CHANCES AND HAVE
ADDED SHRA TO THE VCTS AT TCL/BHM/EET/ANB. HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN
THE SOUTH AS RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THAT AREA. WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY THRU THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS BUT PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH PERSISTENCE AND HAVE MVFR VIS
MENTIONED AT TERMINALS THAT OBSERVED FOG LAST NIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  86  68  87  68 /  40  60  10  10  10
ANNISTON    72  86  70  87  69 /  30  60  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  70  89  71 /  40  60  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  88  71  91  70 /  30  60  10  10  10
CALERA      72  87  71  89  71 /  30  60  10  10  10
AUBURN      71  87  70  87  71 /  20  60  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  72  90  73  91  73 /  20  60  30  20  10
TROY        71  90  71  89  71 /  20  60  40  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 231746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CENTRAL ALABAMA STILL FINDS ITSELF ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
ARE LOCATED. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL AT THIS HOUR...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. SINCE WE STARTED THE DAY OFF WITH
MORE SUN THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT THIS HOUR...AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS HAVE BEST RAIN CHANCES AND HAVE
ADDED SHRA TO THE VCTS AT TCL/BHM/EET/ANB. HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN
THE SOUTH AS RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THAT AREA. WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY THRU THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS BUT PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH PERSISTENCE AND HAVE MVFR VIS
MENTIONED AT TERMINALS THAT OBSERVED FOG LAST NIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  86  68  87  68 /  40  60  10  10  10
ANNISTON    72  86  70  87  69 /  30  60  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  70  89  71 /  40  60  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  88  71  91  70 /  30  60  10  10  10
CALERA      72  87  71  89  71 /  30  60  10  10  10
AUBURN      71  87  70  87  71 /  20  60  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  72  90  73  91  73 /  20  60  30  20  10
TROY        71  90  71  89  71 /  20  60  40  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 231746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CENTRAL ALABAMA STILL FINDS ITSELF ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
ARE LOCATED. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL AT THIS HOUR...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. SINCE WE STARTED THE DAY OFF WITH
MORE SUN THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT THIS HOUR...AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS HAVE BEST RAIN CHANCES AND HAVE
ADDED SHRA TO THE VCTS AT TCL/BHM/EET/ANB. HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN
THE SOUTH AS RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THAT AREA. WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY THRU THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS BUT PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH PERSISTENCE AND HAVE MVFR VIS
MENTIONED AT TERMINALS THAT OBSERVED FOG LAST NIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  86  68  87  68 /  40  60  10  10  10
ANNISTON    72  86  70  87  69 /  30  60  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  70  89  71 /  40  60  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  88  71  91  70 /  30  60  10  10  10
CALERA      72  87  71  89  71 /  30  60  10  10  10
AUBURN      71  87  70  87  71 /  20  60  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  72  90  73  91  73 /  20  60  30  20  10
TROY        71  90  71  89  71 /  20  60  40  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 231700
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR MARINE
ZONES AND SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORE GROWTH IN THE VERTICAL. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY IS INCREASING. NEW ORLEANS
SOUNDING IS INDICATING A LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSION (IF ONE SMOOTHS
THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRACES) BELOW 1000 MB AROUND ZERO
CELSIUS DEGREES...REMAINING SMALL FROM 1000 MB TO 500 MB...AND
STEADILY INCREASING FROM 500 TO 400 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST
TO BE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR DATA BUT RAISING POPS BEFORE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENCROACH OUR
MARINE ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR DATA IN THE EVENT WE HAVE TO RAISE POPS.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK...SO THE EVOLUTION TODAY WOULD LIKELY BE
CONTROLLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISTRIBUTION. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOTED BY SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND
OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROF LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS...THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKENING COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. EXPECT BEST CHANCES
TODAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO... WITH RELATIVELY COLD POCKET
OF AIR ALOFT...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN TODAY TOO. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING PASSING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE TAIL END GETS DRAWN WEST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS ALSO SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX
BACK EAST A BIT. A SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA BY FRIDAY EVE.

FOR THE FORECAST...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST
DAY...WITH POPS AROUND SEASONAL. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL GO WITH. THE
FA DRIES OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRETCHING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. WITH THE LESSENING
PRECIP...TEMPS RISE A BIT FROM THURSDAY...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
(23/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WITH REDUCED SFC VSBY
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS

MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  71  90  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  74  89  76  90 /  20  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      88  76  88  76  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  92 /  30  20  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  90  69  92  69  92 /  40  20  50  20  20
CAMDEN      91  69  91  70  93 /  30  20  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 231547
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1047 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CENTRAL ALABAMA STILL FINDS ITSELF ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
ARE LOCATED. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL AT THIS HOUR...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. SINCE WE STARTED THE DAY OFF WITH
MORE SUN THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER WEST BUT CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND AS NEEDED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL
HELP KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
WINDOW.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DAMP AND MUGGY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 86 TO 91 RANGE.

A BOUNDARY IS BROUGHT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP TEMPORARILY IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PLACES LIKE TROY AND EUFAULA. OTHERWISE...DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE AS THE
BULGING RIDGE OUT WEST NUDGES EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE AIRMASS
SO COMPLETELY DISREGARDED THE MEX NUMBERS. THE 23/00Z EURO MOS
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  71  86  68  87 /  40  40  60  10  10
ANNISTON    88  72  86  70  87 /  40  30  60  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  89  73  87  70  89 /  40  40  60  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  73  88  71  91 /  40  30  60  10  10
CALERA      89  72  87  71  89 /  40  30  60  10  10
AUBURN      88  71  87  70  87 /  30  20  60  30  20
MONTGOMERY  91  72  90  73  91 /  30  20  60  30  20
TROY        90  71  90  71  89 /  20  20  60  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 231547
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1047 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CENTRAL ALABAMA STILL FINDS ITSELF ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
ARE LOCATED. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL AT THIS HOUR...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. SINCE WE STARTED THE DAY OFF WITH
MORE SUN THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER WEST BUT CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND AS NEEDED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL
HELP KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
WINDOW.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DAMP AND MUGGY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 86 TO 91 RANGE.

A BOUNDARY IS BROUGHT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP TEMPORARILY IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PLACES LIKE TROY AND EUFAULA. OTHERWISE...DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE AS THE
BULGING RIDGE OUT WEST NUDGES EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE AIRMASS
SO COMPLETELY DISREGARDED THE MEX NUMBERS. THE 23/00Z EURO MOS
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  71  86  68  87 /  40  40  60  10  10
ANNISTON    88  72  86  70  87 /  40  30  60  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  89  73  87  70  89 /  40  40  60  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  73  88  71  91 /  40  30  60  10  10
CALERA      89  72  87  71  89 /  40  30  60  10  10
AUBURN      88  71  87  70  87 /  30  20  60  30  20
MONTGOMERY  91  72  90  73  91 /  30  20  60  30  20
TROY        90  71  90  71  89 /  20  20  60  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 231446 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
944 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENCROACH OUR
MARINE ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR DATA IN THE EVENT WE HAVE TO RAISE POPS.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK...SO THE EVOLUTION TODAY WOULD LIKELY BE
CONTROLLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISTRIBUTION. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOTED BY SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND
OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROF LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS...THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKENING COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. EXPECT BEST CHANCES
TODAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO... WITH RELATIVELY COLD POCKET
OF AIR ALOFT...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN TODAY TOO. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING PASSING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE TAIL END GETS DRAWN WEST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS ALSO SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX
BACK EAST A BIT. A SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA BY FRIDAY EVE.

FOR THE FORECAST...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST
DAY...WITH POPS AROUND SEASONAL. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL GO WITH. THE
FA DRIES OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRETCHING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. WITH THE LESSENING
PRECIP...TEMPS RISE A BIT FROM THURSDAY...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
(23/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WITH REDUCED SFC VSBY
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS

MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  71  90  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  74  89  76  90 /  20  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      88  76  88  76  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  92 /  30  20  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  90  69  92  69  92 /  40  20  50  20  20
CAMDEN      91  69  91  70  93 /  30  20  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 231446 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
944 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENCROACH OUR
MARINE ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR DATA IN THE EVENT WE HAVE TO RAISE POPS.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK...SO THE EVOLUTION TODAY WOULD LIKELY BE
CONTROLLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISTRIBUTION. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOTED BY SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND
OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROF LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS...THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKENING COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. EXPECT BEST CHANCES
TODAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO... WITH RELATIVELY COLD POCKET
OF AIR ALOFT...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN TODAY TOO. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING PASSING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE TAIL END GETS DRAWN WEST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS ALSO SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX
BACK EAST A BIT. A SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA BY FRIDAY EVE.

FOR THE FORECAST...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST
DAY...WITH POPS AROUND SEASONAL. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL GO WITH. THE
FA DRIES OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRETCHING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. WITH THE LESSENING
PRECIP...TEMPS RISE A BIT FROM THURSDAY...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
(23/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WITH REDUCED SFC VSBY
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS

MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  71  90  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  74  89  76  90 /  20  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      88  76  88  76  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  92 /  30  20  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  90  69  92  69  92 /  40  20  50  20  20
CAMDEN      91  69  91  70  93 /  30  20  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 231446 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
944 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENCROACH OUR
MARINE ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR DATA IN THE EVENT WE HAVE TO RAISE POPS.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK...SO THE EVOLUTION TODAY WOULD LIKELY BE
CONTROLLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISTRIBUTION. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOTED BY SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND
OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROF LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS...THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKENING COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. EXPECT BEST CHANCES
TODAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO... WITH RELATIVELY COLD POCKET
OF AIR ALOFT...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN TODAY TOO. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING PASSING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE TAIL END GETS DRAWN WEST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS ALSO SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX
BACK EAST A BIT. A SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA BY FRIDAY EVE.

FOR THE FORECAST...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST
DAY...WITH POPS AROUND SEASONAL. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL GO WITH. THE
FA DRIES OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRETCHING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. WITH THE LESSENING
PRECIP...TEMPS RISE A BIT FROM THURSDAY...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
(23/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WITH REDUCED SFC VSBY
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS

MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  71  90  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  74  89  76  90 /  20  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      88  76  88  76  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  92 /  30  20  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  90  69  92  69  92 /  40  20  50  20  20
CAMDEN      91  69  91  70  93 /  30  20  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 231446 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
944 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENCROACH OUR
MARINE ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR DATA IN THE EVENT WE HAVE TO RAISE POPS.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK...SO THE EVOLUTION TODAY WOULD LIKELY BE
CONTROLLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISTRIBUTION. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOTED BY SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND
OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROF LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS...THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKENING COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. EXPECT BEST CHANCES
TODAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO... WITH RELATIVELY COLD POCKET
OF AIR ALOFT...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN TODAY TOO. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING PASSING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE TAIL END GETS DRAWN WEST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS ALSO SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX
BACK EAST A BIT. A SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA BY FRIDAY EVE.

FOR THE FORECAST...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST
DAY...WITH POPS AROUND SEASONAL. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL GO WITH. THE
FA DRIES OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRETCHING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. WITH THE LESSENING
PRECIP...TEMPS RISE A BIT FROM THURSDAY...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
(23/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WITH REDUCED SFC VSBY
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS

MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  71  90  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  74  89  76  90 /  20  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      88  76  88  76  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  92 /  30  20  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  90  69  92  69  92 /  40  20  50  20  20
CAMDEN      91  69  91  70  93 /  30  20  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 231444
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
944 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENCROACH OUR
MARINE ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR DATA IN THE EVENT WE HAVE TO RAISE POPS.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK...SO THE EVOLUTION TODAY WOULD LIKELY BE
CONTROLLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISTRIBUTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOTED BY SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND
OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROF LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS...THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKENING COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. EXPECT BEST CHANCES
TODAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO... WITH RELATIVELY COLD POCKET
OF AIR ALOFT...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN TODAY TOO. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING PASSING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE TAIL END GETS DRAWN WEST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS ALSO SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX
BACK EAST A BIT. A SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA BY FRIDAY EVE.

FOR THE FORECAST...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST DAY...WITH
POPS AROUND SEASONAL. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL GO WITH. THE FA DRIES
OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRETCHING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. WITH THE LESSENING
PRECIP...TEMPS RISE A BIT FROM THURSDAY...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE EAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE NEAR
SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO THE WEST OF
THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST THE DRIER GFS
MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE
ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED THEM FOR THE
FORECAST.

AVIATION...
(23/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WITH REDUCED SFC VSBY
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS

MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  71  90  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  74  89  76  90 /  20  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      88  76  88  76  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  92 /  30  20  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  90  69  92  69  92 /  40  20  50  20  20
CAMDEN      91  69  91  70  93 /  30  20  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 231444
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
944 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENCROACH OUR
MARINE ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR DATA IN THE EVENT WE HAVE TO RAISE POPS.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK...SO THE EVOLUTION TODAY WOULD LIKELY BE
CONTROLLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISTRIBUTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOTED BY SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND
OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROF LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS...THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKENING COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. EXPECT BEST CHANCES
TODAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO... WITH RELATIVELY COLD POCKET
OF AIR ALOFT...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN TODAY TOO. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING PASSING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE TAIL END GETS DRAWN WEST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS ALSO SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX
BACK EAST A BIT. A SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA BY FRIDAY EVE.

FOR THE FORECAST...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST DAY...WITH
POPS AROUND SEASONAL. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL GO WITH. THE FA DRIES
OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRETCHING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. WITH THE LESSENING
PRECIP...TEMPS RISE A BIT FROM THURSDAY...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE EAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE NEAR
SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO THE WEST OF
THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST THE DRIER GFS
MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE
ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED THEM FOR THE
FORECAST.

AVIATION...
(23/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WITH REDUCED SFC VSBY
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS

MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  71  90  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  74  89  76  90 /  20  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      88  76  88  76  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  92 /  30  20  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  90  69  92  69  92 /  40  20  50  20  20
CAMDEN      91  69  91  70  93 /  30  20  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 231426
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
926 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG ADVISORY FOR NERN AL...TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM...JUST REMOVED THE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NE AL. OTHERWISE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 80S FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. LOOKS LIKE A HOT/HUMID DAY COMING UP WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. NO SVR WX EXPECTED BUT CANT
RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 601 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS... PATCHY BR WILL REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
THRU ~15Z. SOME NEARBY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TN RIVER, ESPECIALLY IN
NERN AL< WILL EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FG. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THRU THE DAY IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG WITH SUDDEN LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED, HAVE MENTIONED
VCSH IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST, BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED AS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231426
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
926 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG ADVISORY FOR NERN AL...TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM...JUST REMOVED THE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NE AL. OTHERWISE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 80S FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. LOOKS LIKE A HOT/HUMID DAY COMING UP WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. NO SVR WX EXPECTED BUT CANT
RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 601 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS... PATCHY BR WILL REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
THRU ~15Z. SOME NEARBY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TN RIVER, ESPECIALLY IN
NERN AL< WILL EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FG. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THRU THE DAY IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG WITH SUDDEN LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED, HAVE MENTIONED
VCSH IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST, BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED AS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231426
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
926 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG ADVISORY FOR NERN AL...TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM...JUST REMOVED THE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NE AL. OTHERWISE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 80S FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. LOOKS LIKE A HOT/HUMID DAY COMING UP WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. NO SVR WX EXPECTED BUT CANT
RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 601 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS... PATCHY BR WILL REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
THRU ~15Z. SOME NEARBY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TN RIVER, ESPECIALLY IN
NERN AL< WILL EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FG. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THRU THE DAY IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG WITH SUDDEN LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED, HAVE MENTIONED
VCSH IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST, BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED AS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231426
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
926 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG ADVISORY FOR NERN AL...TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM...JUST REMOVED THE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NE AL. OTHERWISE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 80S FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. LOOKS LIKE A HOT/HUMID DAY COMING UP WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. NO SVR WX EXPECTED BUT CANT
RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 601 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS... PATCHY BR WILL REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
THRU ~15Z. SOME NEARBY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TN RIVER, ESPECIALLY IN
NERN AL< WILL EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FG. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THRU THE DAY IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG WITH SUDDEN LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED, HAVE MENTIONED
VCSH IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST, BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED AS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 231136
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DAMP AND MUGGY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 86 TO 91 RANGE.

A BOUNDARY IS BROUGHT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP TEMPORARILY IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PLACES LIKE TROY AND EUFAULA. OTHERWISE...DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE AS THE
BULGING RIDGE OUT WEST NUDGES EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE AIRMASS
SO COMPLETELY DISREGARDED THE MEX NUMBERS. THE 23/00Z EURO MOS
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER WEST BUT CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND AS NEEDED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL
HELP KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
WINDOW.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 231136
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DAMP AND MUGGY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 86 TO 91 RANGE.

A BOUNDARY IS BROUGHT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP TEMPORARILY IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PLACES LIKE TROY AND EUFAULA. OTHERWISE...DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE AS THE
BULGING RIDGE OUT WEST NUDGES EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE AIRMASS
SO COMPLETELY DISREGARDED THE MEX NUMBERS. THE 23/00Z EURO MOS
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER WEST BUT CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND AS NEEDED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL
HELP KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
WINDOW.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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