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000
FXUS64 KMOB 271442 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
942 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...MADE A MODEST UPTICK FOR POPS ON SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH SUNDAY
12Z AFTER REVIEWING MODEL OUTPUTS FOR HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY.

77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA LATE FRI MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO
BE TO THE WEST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL
USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE

AVIATION (27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 271442 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
942 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...MADE A MODEST UPTICK FOR POPS ON SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH SUNDAY
12Z AFTER REVIEWING MODEL OUTPUTS FOR HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY.

77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA LATE FRI MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO
BE TO THE WEST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL
USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE

AVIATION (27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 271157
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
657 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
PATCHY FOG HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ENTRENCHED IN THE SHELTERED/VALLEY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AL FROM BRIDGEPORT SWWD INTO
THE LAKE GUNTERSVILLE COMMUNITY. AS SUCH...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JACKSON AND MARSHALL CO AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG
ADDED TO THE OTHER SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT THRU 27/14Z...BUT WILL WARRANT CONTINUATION OF 2-HR TEMPO
GROUPS FOR MVFR VSBY AT HSV AND IFR VSBY AT MSL. AFTER FOG LIFTS...
EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH A LGT NE FLOW AND SCT STRATOCU/CIRRUS THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY FEW HIGH-BASED CU THIS AFTN. SKC CONDS WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...WITH LGT/CALM WINDS PROMOTING REDUCED VSBY
IN BR/FG ONCE AGAIN.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ008-009.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271157
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
657 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
PATCHY FOG HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ENTRENCHED IN THE SHELTERED/VALLEY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AL FROM BRIDGEPORT SWWD INTO
THE LAKE GUNTERSVILLE COMMUNITY. AS SUCH...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JACKSON AND MARSHALL CO AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG
ADDED TO THE OTHER SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT THRU 27/14Z...BUT WILL WARRANT CONTINUATION OF 2-HR TEMPO
GROUPS FOR MVFR VSBY AT HSV AND IFR VSBY AT MSL. AFTER FOG LIFTS...
EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH A LGT NE FLOW AND SCT STRATOCU/CIRRUS THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY FEW HIGH-BASED CU THIS AFTN. SKC CONDS WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...WITH LGT/CALM WINDS PROMOTING REDUCED VSBY
IN BR/FG ONCE AGAIN.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ008-009.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271157
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
657 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
PATCHY FOG HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ENTRENCHED IN THE SHELTERED/VALLEY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AL FROM BRIDGEPORT SWWD INTO
THE LAKE GUNTERSVILLE COMMUNITY. AS SUCH...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JACKSON AND MARSHALL CO AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG
ADDED TO THE OTHER SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT THRU 27/14Z...BUT WILL WARRANT CONTINUATION OF 2-HR TEMPO
GROUPS FOR MVFR VSBY AT HSV AND IFR VSBY AT MSL. AFTER FOG LIFTS...
EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH A LGT NE FLOW AND SCT STRATOCU/CIRRUS THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY FEW HIGH-BASED CU THIS AFTN. SKC CONDS WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...WITH LGT/CALM WINDS PROMOTING REDUCED VSBY
IN BR/FG ONCE AGAIN.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ008-009.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271157
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
657 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
PATCHY FOG HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ENTRENCHED IN THE SHELTERED/VALLEY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AL FROM BRIDGEPORT SWWD INTO
THE LAKE GUNTERSVILLE COMMUNITY. AS SUCH...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JACKSON AND MARSHALL CO AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG
ADDED TO THE OTHER SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT THRU 27/14Z...BUT WILL WARRANT CONTINUATION OF 2-HR TEMPO
GROUPS FOR MVFR VSBY AT HSV AND IFR VSBY AT MSL. AFTER FOG LIFTS...
EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH A LGT NE FLOW AND SCT STRATOCU/CIRRUS THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY FEW HIGH-BASED CU THIS AFTN. SKC CONDS WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...WITH LGT/CALM WINDS PROMOTING REDUCED VSBY
IN BR/FG ONCE AGAIN.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ008-009.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 271123
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. ALSO HELPING TO SET OFF THE RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALLER
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE GULF INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (WITH MAXIMIZED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES) WILL COME ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
THAT...LOWER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS ME TO GO WITH A LARGELY CLIMO
BASED FORECAST. AFTER A RATHER WARM STRETCH OF DAYS THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK...THE RAIN CHANCES...ADDED CLOUDS...AND LOWER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL ALL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT LESS WARM CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

61/87





000
FXUS64 KBMX 271123
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. ALSO HELPING TO SET OFF THE RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALLER
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE GULF INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (WITH MAXIMIZED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES) WILL COME ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
THAT...LOWER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS ME TO GO WITH A LARGELY CLIMO
BASED FORECAST. AFTER A RATHER WARM STRETCH OF DAYS THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK...THE RAIN CHANCES...ADDED CLOUDS...AND LOWER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL ALL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT LESS WARM CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

61/87






000
FXUS64 KHUN 271030 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
530 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS IN NE AL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ENTRENCHED IN THE SHELTERED/VALLEY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AL FROM BRIDGEPORT SWWD INTO
THE LAKE GUNTERSVILLE COMMUNITY. AS SUCH...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JACKSON AND MARSHALL CO AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG
ADDED TO THE OTHER SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
PATCHY...MOSTLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMSL/KHSV AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR WEATHER AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OTHER FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

RSB/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 215 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
WED MORNING...WITH TEMP TRENDS BEGINNING TO LOWER INTO THE 60S
RANGE. WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S AS WELL COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH...BELIEVE ANY FOG WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE FOG
PRONE AREAS AND WILL BE SHALLOW/LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET
OF THE DAYTIME HRS. THE OVERALL WX PATTERN SHOULD THEN BE FAIRLY
STAGNANT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED ACROSS THE
MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN STILL HAS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SE
REGION FROM THE W...AND THIS AXIS SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING TO SOLIDIFY FAIRLY BENIGN WX CONDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS STILL LOOK TO HOVER NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TRENDS WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS GOING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS THE FLOW REGIME TURNS MORE TOWARD THE
SW. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS STILL HINT AT UPPER WAVES BEGINNING
TO AFFECT THE REGION BY EARLY SAT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE MID PLAINS SHIFTS EWD. EVEN WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH LINGERING IN THE MODEL BIAS...MOISTURE DEPTH/INFLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SIG AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRI/INTO SAT. CONVECTIVE PATTERNS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY SCT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE ONCOMING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THE OVERALL PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOME GOING
INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/LIFTS INTO THE NE
STATES. RAIN CHANCES THOUGH LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
BREAK...GIVEN ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/PROBABLE UPPER WAVES IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SUPTROPICAL RIDGE THOUGH IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ERN GULF REGION MAY HELP LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHC MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS GOING MORE INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ008-009.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271030 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
530 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS IN NE AL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ENTRENCHED IN THE SHELTERED/VALLEY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AL FROM BRIDGEPORT SWWD INTO
THE LAKE GUNTERSVILLE COMMUNITY. AS SUCH...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JACKSON AND MARSHALL CO AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG
ADDED TO THE OTHER SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
PATCHY...MOSTLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMSL/KHSV AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR WEATHER AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OTHER FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

RSB/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 215 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
WED MORNING...WITH TEMP TRENDS BEGINNING TO LOWER INTO THE 60S
RANGE. WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S AS WELL COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH...BELIEVE ANY FOG WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE FOG
PRONE AREAS AND WILL BE SHALLOW/LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET
OF THE DAYTIME HRS. THE OVERALL WX PATTERN SHOULD THEN BE FAIRLY
STAGNANT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED ACROSS THE
MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN STILL HAS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SE
REGION FROM THE W...AND THIS AXIS SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING TO SOLIDIFY FAIRLY BENIGN WX CONDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS STILL LOOK TO HOVER NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TRENDS WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS GOING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS THE FLOW REGIME TURNS MORE TOWARD THE
SW. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS STILL HINT AT UPPER WAVES BEGINNING
TO AFFECT THE REGION BY EARLY SAT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE MID PLAINS SHIFTS EWD. EVEN WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH LINGERING IN THE MODEL BIAS...MOISTURE DEPTH/INFLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SIG AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRI/INTO SAT. CONVECTIVE PATTERNS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY SCT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE ONCOMING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THE OVERALL PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOME GOING
INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/LIFTS INTO THE NE
STATES. RAIN CHANCES THOUGH LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
BREAK...GIVEN ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/PROBABLE UPPER WAVES IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SUPTROPICAL RIDGE THOUGH IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ERN GULF REGION MAY HELP LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHC MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS GOING MORE INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ008-009.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 271030 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
530 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS IN NE AL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ENTRENCHED IN THE SHELTERED/VALLEY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AL FROM BRIDGEPORT SWWD INTO
THE LAKE GUNTERSVILLE COMMUNITY. AS SUCH...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JACKSON AND MARSHALL CO AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG
ADDED TO THE OTHER SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
PATCHY...MOSTLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMSL/KHSV AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR WEATHER AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OTHER FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

RSB/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 215 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
WED MORNING...WITH TEMP TRENDS BEGINNING TO LOWER INTO THE 60S
RANGE. WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S AS WELL COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH...BELIEVE ANY FOG WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE FOG
PRONE AREAS AND WILL BE SHALLOW/LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET
OF THE DAYTIME HRS. THE OVERALL WX PATTERN SHOULD THEN BE FAIRLY
STAGNANT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED ACROSS THE
MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN STILL HAS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SE
REGION FROM THE W...AND THIS AXIS SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING TO SOLIDIFY FAIRLY BENIGN WX CONDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS STILL LOOK TO HOVER NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TRENDS WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS GOING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS THE FLOW REGIME TURNS MORE TOWARD THE
SW. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS STILL HINT AT UPPER WAVES BEGINNING
TO AFFECT THE REGION BY EARLY SAT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE MID PLAINS SHIFTS EWD. EVEN WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH LINGERING IN THE MODEL BIAS...MOISTURE DEPTH/INFLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SIG AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRI/INTO SAT. CONVECTIVE PATTERNS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY SCT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE ONCOMING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THE OVERALL PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOME GOING
INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/LIFTS INTO THE NE
STATES. RAIN CHANCES THOUGH LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
BREAK...GIVEN ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/PROBABLE UPPER WAVES IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SUPTROPICAL RIDGE THOUGH IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ERN GULF REGION MAY HELP LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHC MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS GOING MORE INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ008-009.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271030 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
530 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS IN NE AL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ENTRENCHED IN THE SHELTERED/VALLEY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AL FROM BRIDGEPORT SWWD INTO
THE LAKE GUNTERSVILLE COMMUNITY. AS SUCH...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JACKSON AND MARSHALL CO AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG
ADDED TO THE OTHER SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
PATCHY...MOSTLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMSL/KHSV AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR WEATHER AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OTHER FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

RSB/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 215 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
WED MORNING...WITH TEMP TRENDS BEGINNING TO LOWER INTO THE 60S
RANGE. WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S AS WELL COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH...BELIEVE ANY FOG WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE FOG
PRONE AREAS AND WILL BE SHALLOW/LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET
OF THE DAYTIME HRS. THE OVERALL WX PATTERN SHOULD THEN BE FAIRLY
STAGNANT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED ACROSS THE
MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN STILL HAS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SE
REGION FROM THE W...AND THIS AXIS SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING TO SOLIDIFY FAIRLY BENIGN WX CONDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS STILL LOOK TO HOVER NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TRENDS WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS GOING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS THE FLOW REGIME TURNS MORE TOWARD THE
SW. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS STILL HINT AT UPPER WAVES BEGINNING
TO AFFECT THE REGION BY EARLY SAT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE MID PLAINS SHIFTS EWD. EVEN WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH LINGERING IN THE MODEL BIAS...MOISTURE DEPTH/INFLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SIG AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRI/INTO SAT. CONVECTIVE PATTERNS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY SCT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE ONCOMING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THE OVERALL PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOME GOING
INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/LIFTS INTO THE NE
STATES. RAIN CHANCES THOUGH LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
BREAK...GIVEN ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/PROBABLE UPPER WAVES IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SUPTROPICAL RIDGE THOUGH IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ERN GULF REGION MAY HELP LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHC MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS GOING MORE INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ008-009.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271009
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA LATE FRI MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO
BE TO THE WEST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL
USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION (27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 271009
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA LATE FRI MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO
BE TO THE WEST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL
USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION (27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 271009
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA LATE FRI MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO
BE TO THE WEST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL
USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION (27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 271009
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA LATE FRI MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO
BE TO THE WEST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL
USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION (27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 271004
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS


[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING THROUGH FRI
ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN ADVECTING
NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS MOSTLY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI MORNING THEN
SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATE FRI
MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST AND
OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO
THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION...(27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 271004
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS


[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING THROUGH FRI
ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN ADVECTING
NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS MOSTLY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI MORNING THEN
SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATE FRI
MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST AND
OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO
THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION...(27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 271004
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS


[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING THROUGH FRI
ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN ADVECTING
NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS MOSTLY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI MORNING THEN
SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATE FRI
MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST AND
OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO
THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION...(27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 271004
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS


[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING THROUGH FRI
ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN ADVECTING
NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS MOSTLY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI MORNING THEN
SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATE FRI
MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST AND
OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO
THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION...(27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 270925
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
425 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. ALSO HELPING TO SET OFF THE RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALLER
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE GULF INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (WITH MAXIMIZED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES) WILL COME ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
THAT...LOWER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS ME TO GO WITH A LARGELY CLIMO
BASED FORECAST. AFTER A RATHER WARM STRETCH OF DAYS THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK...THE RAIN CHANCES...ADDED CLOUDS...AND LOWER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL ALL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT LESS WARM CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    91  65  93  68  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  93  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  67  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      93  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      91  67  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  94  67  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        92  66  94  67  94 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 270925
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
425 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. ALSO HELPING TO SET OFF THE RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALLER
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE GULF INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (WITH MAXIMIZED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES) WILL COME ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
THAT...LOWER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS ME TO GO WITH A LARGELY CLIMO
BASED FORECAST. AFTER A RATHER WARM STRETCH OF DAYS THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK...THE RAIN CHANCES...ADDED CLOUDS...AND LOWER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL ALL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT LESS WARM CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    91  65  93  68  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  93  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  67  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      93  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      91  67  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  94  67  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        92  66  94  67  94 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 270715
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
215 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
WED MORNING...WITH TEMP TRENDS BEGINNING TO LOWER INTO THE 60S
RANGE. WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S AS WELL COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH...BELIEVE ANY FOG WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE FOG
PRONE AREAS AND WILL BE SHALLOW/LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET
OF THE DAYTIME HRS. THE OVERALL WX PATTERN SHOULD THEN BE FAIRLY
STAGNANT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED ACROSS THE
MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN STILL HAS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SE
REGION FROM THE W...AND THIS AXIS SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING TO SOLIDIFY FAIRLY BENIGN WX CONDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS STILL LOOK TO HOVER NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TRENDS WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS GOING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS THE FLOW REGIME TURNS MORE TOWARD THE
SW. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS STILL HINT AT UPPER WAVES BEGINNING
TO AFFECT THE REGION BY EARLY SAT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE MID PLAINS SHIFTS EWD. EVEN WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH LINGERING IN THE MODEL BIAS...MOISTURE DEPTH/INFLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SIG AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRI/INTO SAT. CONVECTIVE PATTERNS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY SCT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE ONCOMING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THE OVERALL PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOME GOING
INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/LIFTS INTO THE NE
STATES. RAIN CHANCES THOUGH LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
BREAK...GIVEN ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/PROBABLE UPPER WAVES IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SUPTROPICAL RIDGE THOUGH IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ERN GULF REGION MAY HELP LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHC MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS GOING MORE INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
PATCHY...MOSTLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMSL/KHSV AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR WEATHER AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OTHER FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

RSB/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    93  67  94  68 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        93  66  95  67 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      91  65  93  67 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  89  64  92  65 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   91  63  92  64 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    90  63  93  63 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270715
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
215 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
WED MORNING...WITH TEMP TRENDS BEGINNING TO LOWER INTO THE 60S
RANGE. WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S AS WELL COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH...BELIEVE ANY FOG WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE FOG
PRONE AREAS AND WILL BE SHALLOW/LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET
OF THE DAYTIME HRS. THE OVERALL WX PATTERN SHOULD THEN BE FAIRLY
STAGNANT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED ACROSS THE
MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN STILL HAS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SE
REGION FROM THE W...AND THIS AXIS SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING TO SOLIDIFY FAIRLY BENIGN WX CONDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS STILL LOOK TO HOVER NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TRENDS WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS GOING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS THE FLOW REGIME TURNS MORE TOWARD THE
SW. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS STILL HINT AT UPPER WAVES BEGINNING
TO AFFECT THE REGION BY EARLY SAT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE MID PLAINS SHIFTS EWD. EVEN WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH LINGERING IN THE MODEL BIAS...MOISTURE DEPTH/INFLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SIG AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRI/INTO SAT. CONVECTIVE PATTERNS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY SCT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE ONCOMING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THE OVERALL PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOME GOING
INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/LIFTS INTO THE NE
STATES. RAIN CHANCES THOUGH LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
BREAK...GIVEN ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/PROBABLE UPPER WAVES IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SUPTROPICAL RIDGE THOUGH IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ERN GULF REGION MAY HELP LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHC MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS GOING MORE INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
PATCHY...MOSTLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMSL/KHSV AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR WEATHER AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OTHER FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

RSB/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    93  67  94  68 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        93  66  95  67 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      91  65  93  67 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  89  64  92  65 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   91  63  92  64 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    90  63  93  63 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270715
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
215 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
WED MORNING...WITH TEMP TRENDS BEGINNING TO LOWER INTO THE 60S
RANGE. WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S AS WELL COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH...BELIEVE ANY FOG WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE FOG
PRONE AREAS AND WILL BE SHALLOW/LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET
OF THE DAYTIME HRS. THE OVERALL WX PATTERN SHOULD THEN BE FAIRLY
STAGNANT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED ACROSS THE
MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN STILL HAS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SE
REGION FROM THE W...AND THIS AXIS SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING TO SOLIDIFY FAIRLY BENIGN WX CONDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS STILL LOOK TO HOVER NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TRENDS WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS GOING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS THE FLOW REGIME TURNS MORE TOWARD THE
SW. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS STILL HINT AT UPPER WAVES BEGINNING
TO AFFECT THE REGION BY EARLY SAT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE MID PLAINS SHIFTS EWD. EVEN WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH LINGERING IN THE MODEL BIAS...MOISTURE DEPTH/INFLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SIG AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRI/INTO SAT. CONVECTIVE PATTERNS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY SCT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE ONCOMING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THE OVERALL PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOME GOING
INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/LIFTS INTO THE NE
STATES. RAIN CHANCES THOUGH LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
BREAK...GIVEN ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/PROBABLE UPPER WAVES IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SUPTROPICAL RIDGE THOUGH IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ERN GULF REGION MAY HELP LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHC MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS GOING MORE INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
PATCHY...MOSTLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMSL/KHSV AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR WEATHER AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OTHER FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

RSB/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    93  67  94  68 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        93  66  95  67 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      91  65  93  67 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  89  64  92  65 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   91  63  92  64 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    90  63  93  63 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270715
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
215 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
WED MORNING...WITH TEMP TRENDS BEGINNING TO LOWER INTO THE 60S
RANGE. WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S AS WELL COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH...BELIEVE ANY FOG WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE FOG
PRONE AREAS AND WILL BE SHALLOW/LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET
OF THE DAYTIME HRS. THE OVERALL WX PATTERN SHOULD THEN BE FAIRLY
STAGNANT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED ACROSS THE
MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN STILL HAS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SE
REGION FROM THE W...AND THIS AXIS SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING TO SOLIDIFY FAIRLY BENIGN WX CONDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS STILL LOOK TO HOVER NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TRENDS WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS GOING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS THE FLOW REGIME TURNS MORE TOWARD THE
SW. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS STILL HINT AT UPPER WAVES BEGINNING
TO AFFECT THE REGION BY EARLY SAT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE MID PLAINS SHIFTS EWD. EVEN WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH LINGERING IN THE MODEL BIAS...MOISTURE DEPTH/INFLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SIG AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRI/INTO SAT. CONVECTIVE PATTERNS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY SCT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE ONCOMING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THE OVERALL PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOME GOING
INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/LIFTS INTO THE NE
STATES. RAIN CHANCES THOUGH LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
BREAK...GIVEN ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/PROBABLE UPPER WAVES IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SUPTROPICAL RIDGE THOUGH IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ERN GULF REGION MAY HELP LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHC MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS GOING MORE INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
PATCHY...MOSTLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMSL/KHSV AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR WEATHER AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OTHER FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

RSB/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    93  67  94  68 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        93  66  95  67 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      91  65  93  67 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  89  64  92  65 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   91  63  92  64 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    90  63  93  63 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270548 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1248 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING (WITH MAX HEIGHTS IN THE 592/593 DECAMETER
RANGE) SITUATED FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC CONTROLLED THE
GENERAL WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. 9 PM
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. DEWPOINT VALUES MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MAKE FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THAT AFFECTED LOCATIONS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST
HAVE DISSIPATED WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID
60S IN MOST SPOTS. THOSE VALUES WILL APPROACH DEWPOINT VALUES...
THUS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THOSE FAVORED FOG PRONE AREAS (NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER AND IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS). THE ON-GOING FORECASTS FROM THE DAYSHIFT ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE...THUS NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
PATCHY...MOSTLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMSL/KHSV AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR WEATHER AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OTHER FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

RSB/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 270548 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1248 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING (WITH MAX HEIGHTS IN THE 592/593 DECAMETER
RANGE) SITUATED FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC CONTROLLED THE
GENERAL WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. 9 PM
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. DEWPOINT VALUES MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MAKE FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THAT AFFECTED LOCATIONS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST
HAVE DISSIPATED WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID
60S IN MOST SPOTS. THOSE VALUES WILL APPROACH DEWPOINT VALUES...
THUS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THOSE FAVORED FOG PRONE AREAS (NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER AND IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS). THE ON-GOING FORECASTS FROM THE DAYSHIFT ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE...THUS NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
PATCHY...MOSTLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMSL/KHSV AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR WEATHER AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OTHER FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

RSB/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 270444
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES ITS DOMINATION OF ALABAMA WEATHER. DRY AND COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL LOCATIONS WILL DROP
INTO THE 60S. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND DID NOT NEED ANY
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS. REFRESHER FORECAST ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  91  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  94  66  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      67  92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  90  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  94  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  92  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 270444
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES ITS DOMINATION OF ALABAMA WEATHER. DRY AND COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL LOCATIONS WILL DROP
INTO THE 60S. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND DID NOT NEED ANY
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS. REFRESHER FORECAST ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  91  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  94  66  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      67  92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  90  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  94  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  92  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 270444
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES ITS DOMINATION OF ALABAMA WEATHER. DRY AND COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL LOCATIONS WILL DROP
INTO THE 60S. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND DID NOT NEED ANY
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS. REFRESHER FORECAST ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  91  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  94  66  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      67  92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  90  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  94  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  92  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 270444
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES ITS DOMINATION OF ALABAMA WEATHER. DRY AND COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL LOCATIONS WILL DROP
INTO THE 60S. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND DID NOT NEED ANY
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS. REFRESHER FORECAST ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  91  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  94  66  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      67  92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  90  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  94  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  92  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 270432 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1132 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION [27.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...CLOUDS ALONG ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
HAVE DIMINISHED WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
/10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE ENDED AND
WILL REMOVE HEADLINES FROM COASTAL ZONES. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST IS ACCOMPANIED
BY CLOUDINESS. CLOUDS ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS SO NOT EXPECTING RAIN
FROM THESE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION [27.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROF...HAS ITS
CLOUD APPEARANCE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT BASES
ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
TODAY...INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  05  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  05  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  05  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 270432 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1132 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION [27.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...CLOUDS ALONG ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
HAVE DIMINISHED WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
/10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE ENDED AND
WILL REMOVE HEADLINES FROM COASTAL ZONES. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST IS ACCOMPANIED
BY CLOUDINESS. CLOUDS ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS SO NOT EXPECTING RAIN
FROM THESE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION [27.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROF...HAS ITS
CLOUD APPEARANCE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT BASES
ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
TODAY...INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  05  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  05  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  05  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 270314
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES ITS DOMINATION OF ALABAMA WEATHER. DRY AND COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL LOCATIONS WILL DROP
INTO THE 60S. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND DID NOT NEED ANY
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS. REFRESHER FORECAST ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. EXPECT CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY
AIR MASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

VERY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING MEASURING
PWATS OF 0.75 INCHES. THIS IS LOWER THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH WERE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED.
DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ONE MORE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE BEGINS ON THURSDAY. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL WILL QUICKLY BUILD OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF CRISTOBAL IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ADVECT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWATS COULD RISE TO 2.20 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI SPREADING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH
THE AGREEMENT THAT`S CURRENTLY THERE...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVER THE COMING DAYS...WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TRENDS EMERGE SO FOLKS CAN PLAN ACCORDINGLY
WHO ARE GOING TO BE OUTDOORS. THE WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE CLIMO POPS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  91  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  94  66  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      67  92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  90  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  94  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  92  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 270210 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
910 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING (WITH MAX HEIGHTS IN THE 592/593 DECAMETER
RANGE) SITUATED FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC CONTROLLED THE
GENERAL WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. 9 PM
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. DEWPOINT VALUES MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MAKE FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THAT AFFECTED LOCATIONS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST
HAVE DISSIPATED WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID
60S IN MOST SPOTS. THOSE VALUES WILL APPROACH DEWPOINT VALUES...
THUS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THOSE FAVORED FOG PRONE AREAS (NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER AND IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS). THE ON-GOING FORECASTS FROM THE DAYSHIFT ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE...THUS NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 640 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
NIGHT...AS A WEAK EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR
FOG FORMING AROUND DAYBREAK WED. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR WEATHER CONTINUING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 422 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR NW COUNTIES
TODAY. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER AND IN VALLEYS. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS
TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...EVEN WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE FOG. CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY HELD
BACK THE TEMPS FROM REACHING INTO THE 90S TODAY...BUT TEMPS WILL GET
DOWN INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. THESE TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND THE HIGH MOVING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GULF MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW PWATS TO INCREASE OVER AN INCH ON FRIDAY AND UP TO 2 INCHES
ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY LEADING
THE SLIGHT DECREASE TREND WITH LOWER 90S...WHICH IS OUR NORM. THE
WEEKEND MAY NOT REACH THE 90S...BUT WE WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 270210 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
910 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING (WITH MAX HEIGHTS IN THE 592/593 DECAMETER
RANGE) SITUATED FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC CONTROLLED THE
GENERAL WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. 9 PM
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. DEWPOINT VALUES MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MAKE FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THAT AFFECTED LOCATIONS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST
HAVE DISSIPATED WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID
60S IN MOST SPOTS. THOSE VALUES WILL APPROACH DEWPOINT VALUES...
THUS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THOSE FAVORED FOG PRONE AREAS (NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER AND IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS). THE ON-GOING FORECASTS FROM THE DAYSHIFT ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE...THUS NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 640 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
NIGHT...AS A WEAK EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR
FOG FORMING AROUND DAYBREAK WED. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR WEATHER CONTINUING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 422 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR NW COUNTIES
TODAY. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER AND IN VALLEYS. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS
TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...EVEN WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE FOG. CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY HELD
BACK THE TEMPS FROM REACHING INTO THE 90S TODAY...BUT TEMPS WILL GET
DOWN INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. THESE TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND THE HIGH MOVING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GULF MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW PWATS TO INCREASE OVER AN INCH ON FRIDAY AND UP TO 2 INCHES
ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY LEADING
THE SLIGHT DECREASE TREND WITH LOWER 90S...WHICH IS OUR NORM. THE
WEEKEND MAY NOT REACH THE 90S...BUT WE WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270133 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
833 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE ENDED AND
WILL REMOVE HEADLINES FROM COASTAL ZONES. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST IS ACCOMPANIED
BY CLOUDINESS. CLOUDS ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS SO NOT EXPECTING RAIN
FROM THESE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION [27.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROF...HAS ITS
CLOUD APPEARANCE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT BASES
ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. /10

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
TODAY...INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  05  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  05  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  05  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 270133 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
833 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE ENDED AND
WILL REMOVE HEADLINES FROM COASTAL ZONES. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST IS ACCOMPANIED
BY CLOUDINESS. CLOUDS ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS SO NOT EXPECTING RAIN
FROM THESE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION [27.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROF...HAS ITS
CLOUD APPEARANCE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT BASES
ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. /10

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
TODAY...INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  05  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  05  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  05  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 262349 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AVIATION [27.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROF...HAS ITS
CLOUD APPEARANCE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT BASES
ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM
THE WESTERN GULF EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20%. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER TODAY INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S
POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  10  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  10  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  10  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 262349 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AVIATION [27.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROF...HAS ITS
CLOUD APPEARANCE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT BASES
ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM
THE WESTERN GULF EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20%. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER TODAY INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S
POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  10  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  10  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  10  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 262349 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AVIATION [27.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROF...HAS ITS
CLOUD APPEARANCE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT BASES
ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM
THE WESTERN GULF EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20%. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER TODAY INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S
POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  10  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  10  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  10  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 262349 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AVIATION [27.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROF...HAS ITS
CLOUD APPEARANCE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT BASES
ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM
THE WESTERN GULF EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20%. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER TODAY INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S
POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  10  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  10  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  10  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 262340 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
640 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 422 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR NW COUNTIES
TODAY. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER AND IN VALLEYS. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS
TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...EVEN WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE FOG. CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY HELD
BACK THE TEMPS FROM REACHING INTO THE 90S TODAY...BUT TEMPS WILL GET
DOWN INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. THESE TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND THE HIGH MOVING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GULF MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW PWATS TO INCREASE OVER AN INCH ON FRIDAY AND UP TO 2 INCHES
ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY LEADING
THE SLIGHT DECREASE TREND WITH LOWER 90S...WHICH IS OUR NORM. THE
WEEKEND MAY NOT REACH THE 90S...BUT WE WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
NIGHT...AS A WEAK EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR
FOG FORMING AROUND DAYBREAK WED. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR WEATHER CONTINUING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 262317
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
617 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING MEASURING
PWATS OF 0.75 INCHES. THIS IS LOWER THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH WERE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED.
DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ONE MORE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE BEGINS ON THURSDAY. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL WILL QUICKLY BUILD OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF CRISTOBAL IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ADVECT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWATS COULD RISE TO 2.20 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI SPREADING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH
THE AGREEMENT THAT`S CURRENTLY THERE...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVER THE COMING DAYS...WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TRENDS EMERGE SO FOLKS CAN PLAN ACCORDINGLY
WHO ARE GOING TO BE OUTDOORS. THE WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE CLIMO POPS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. EXPECT CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY
AIR MASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  91  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  94  66  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      67  92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  90  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  94  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  92  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 262317
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
617 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING MEASURING
PWATS OF 0.75 INCHES. THIS IS LOWER THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH WERE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED.
DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ONE MORE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE BEGINS ON THURSDAY. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL WILL QUICKLY BUILD OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF CRISTOBAL IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ADVECT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWATS COULD RISE TO 2.20 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI SPREADING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH
THE AGREEMENT THAT`S CURRENTLY THERE...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVER THE COMING DAYS...WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TRENDS EMERGE SO FOLKS CAN PLAN ACCORDINGLY
WHO ARE GOING TO BE OUTDOORS. THE WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE CLIMO POPS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. EXPECT CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY
AIR MASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  91  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  94  66  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      67  92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  90  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  94  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  92  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 262317
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
617 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING MEASURING
PWATS OF 0.75 INCHES. THIS IS LOWER THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH WERE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED.
DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ONE MORE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE BEGINS ON THURSDAY. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL WILL QUICKLY BUILD OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF CRISTOBAL IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ADVECT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWATS COULD RISE TO 2.20 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI SPREADING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH
THE AGREEMENT THAT`S CURRENTLY THERE...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVER THE COMING DAYS...WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TRENDS EMERGE SO FOLKS CAN PLAN ACCORDINGLY
WHO ARE GOING TO BE OUTDOORS. THE WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE CLIMO POPS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. EXPECT CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY
AIR MASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  91  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  94  66  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      67  92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  90  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  94  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  92  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 262317
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
617 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING MEASURING
PWATS OF 0.75 INCHES. THIS IS LOWER THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH WERE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED.
DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ONE MORE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE BEGINS ON THURSDAY. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL WILL QUICKLY BUILD OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF CRISTOBAL IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ADVECT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWATS COULD RISE TO 2.20 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI SPREADING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH
THE AGREEMENT THAT`S CURRENTLY THERE...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVER THE COMING DAYS...WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TRENDS EMERGE SO FOLKS CAN PLAN ACCORDINGLY
WHO ARE GOING TO BE OUTDOORS. THE WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE CLIMO POPS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. EXPECT CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY
AIR MASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  91  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  94  66  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      67  92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  90  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  94  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  92  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 262122
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
422 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR NW COUNTIES
TODAY. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER AND IN VALLEYS. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS
TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...EVEN WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE FOG. CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY HELD
BACK THE TEMPS FROM REACHING INTO THE 90S TODAY...BUT TEMPS WILL GET
DOWN INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. THESE TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND THE HIGH MOVING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GULF MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW PWATS TO INCREASE OVER AN INCH ON FRIDAY AND UP TO 2 INCHES
ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY LEADING
THE SLIGHT DECREASE TREND WITH LOWER 90S...WHICH IS OUR NORM. THE
WEEKEND MAY NOT REACH THE 90S...BUT WE WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1154 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... BAND OF MOISTURE AND MID CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THRU THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL, INCLUDING KMSL. BRIEF
SPRINKLES OR -SHRA WILL OCCUR, BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SKIRT JUST NW OF KHSV. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU MOST OF TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDS DUE
TO BR IS PSBL FROM 08-12Z. LIGHT TO CALM FLOW IS FORECAST THRU THE
PERIOD.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  94  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        66  94  65  95 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      67  91  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  65  90  64  91 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   64  91  63  92 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    63  91  63  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 262122
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
422 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR NW COUNTIES
TODAY. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER AND IN VALLEYS. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS
TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...EVEN WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE FOG. CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY HELD
BACK THE TEMPS FROM REACHING INTO THE 90S TODAY...BUT TEMPS WILL GET
DOWN INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. THESE TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND THE HIGH MOVING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GULF MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW PWATS TO INCREASE OVER AN INCH ON FRIDAY AND UP TO 2 INCHES
ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY LEADING
THE SLIGHT DECREASE TREND WITH LOWER 90S...WHICH IS OUR NORM. THE
WEEKEND MAY NOT REACH THE 90S...BUT WE WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1154 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... BAND OF MOISTURE AND MID CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THRU THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL, INCLUDING KMSL. BRIEF
SPRINKLES OR -SHRA WILL OCCUR, BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SKIRT JUST NW OF KHSV. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU MOST OF TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDS DUE
TO BR IS PSBL FROM 08-12Z. LIGHT TO CALM FLOW IS FORECAST THRU THE
PERIOD.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  94  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        66  94  65  95 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      67  91  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  65  90  64  91 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   64  91  63  92 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    63  91  63  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 262122
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
422 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR NW COUNTIES
TODAY. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER AND IN VALLEYS. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS
TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...EVEN WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE FOG. CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY HELD
BACK THE TEMPS FROM REACHING INTO THE 90S TODAY...BUT TEMPS WILL GET
DOWN INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. THESE TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND THE HIGH MOVING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GULF MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW PWATS TO INCREASE OVER AN INCH ON FRIDAY AND UP TO 2 INCHES
ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY LEADING
THE SLIGHT DECREASE TREND WITH LOWER 90S...WHICH IS OUR NORM. THE
WEEKEND MAY NOT REACH THE 90S...BUT WE WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1154 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... BAND OF MOISTURE AND MID CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THRU THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL, INCLUDING KMSL. BRIEF
SPRINKLES OR -SHRA WILL OCCUR, BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SKIRT JUST NW OF KHSV. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU MOST OF TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDS DUE
TO BR IS PSBL FROM 08-12Z. LIGHT TO CALM FLOW IS FORECAST THRU THE
PERIOD.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  94  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        66  94  65  95 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      67  91  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  65  90  64  91 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   64  91  63  92 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    63  91  63  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 262122
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
422 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR NW COUNTIES
TODAY. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER AND IN VALLEYS. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS
TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...EVEN WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE FOG. CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY HELD
BACK THE TEMPS FROM REACHING INTO THE 90S TODAY...BUT TEMPS WILL GET
DOWN INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. THESE TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND THE HIGH MOVING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GULF MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW PWATS TO INCREASE OVER AN INCH ON FRIDAY AND UP TO 2 INCHES
ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY LEADING
THE SLIGHT DECREASE TREND WITH LOWER 90S...WHICH IS OUR NORM. THE
WEEKEND MAY NOT REACH THE 90S...BUT WE WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1154 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... BAND OF MOISTURE AND MID CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THRU THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL, INCLUDING KMSL. BRIEF
SPRINKLES OR -SHRA WILL OCCUR, BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SKIRT JUST NW OF KHSV. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU MOST OF TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDS DUE
TO BR IS PSBL FROM 08-12Z. LIGHT TO CALM FLOW IS FORECAST THRU THE
PERIOD.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  94  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        66  94  65  95 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      67  91  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  65  90  64  91 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   64  91  63  92 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    63  91  63  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 262100
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING MEASURING
PWATS OF 0.75 INCHES. THIS IS LOWER THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH WERE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED.
DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ONE MORE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE BEGINS ON THURSDAY. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL WILL QUICKLY BUILD OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF CRISTOBAL IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ADVECT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWATS COULD RISE TO 2.20 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI SPREADING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH
THE AGREEMENT THAT`S CURRENTLY THERE...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVER THE COMING DAYS...WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TRENDS EMERGE SO FOLKS CAN PLAN ACCORDINGLY
WHO ARE GOING TO BE OUTDOORS. THE WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE CLIMO POPS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY WIDE VARIABILITY
ON BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT...THEN
RETURN TO A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  91  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  94  66  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      67  92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  90  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  94  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  92  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 262050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM
THE WESTERN GULF EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20%. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER TODAY INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S
POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

&&

.AVIATION [26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  10  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  10  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  10  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 262050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM
THE WESTERN GULF EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20%. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER TODAY INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S
POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

&&

.AVIATION [26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  10  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  10  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  10  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 261746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY WIDE VARIABILITY
ON BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT...THEN
RETURN TO A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1102 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD AUGUST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL HELP IT FEEL A
LITTLE COOLER THAN THE THERMOMETER INDICATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS PROVIDES A FRESH FLOW OF
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR DOWN THE EAST COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THIS MORNING.

JD/02

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 261746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY WIDE VARIABILITY
ON BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT...THEN
RETURN TO A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1102 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD AUGUST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL HELP IT FEEL A
LITTLE COOLER THAN THE THERMOMETER INDICATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS PROVIDES A FRESH FLOW OF
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR DOWN THE EAST COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THIS MORNING.

JD/02

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 261746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY WIDE VARIABILITY
ON BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT...THEN
RETURN TO A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1102 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD AUGUST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL HELP IT FEEL A
LITTLE COOLER THAN THE THERMOMETER INDICATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS PROVIDES A FRESH FLOW OF
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR DOWN THE EAST COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THIS MORNING.

JD/02

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 261746
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY WIDE VARIABILITY
ON BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT...THEN
RETURN TO A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1102 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD AUGUST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL HELP IT FEEL A
LITTLE COOLER THAN THE THERMOMETER INDICATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS PROVIDES A FRESH FLOW OF
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR DOWN THE EAST COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THIS MORNING.

JD/02

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 261733
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE LOW 90S. A SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR THE COAST REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON (<20%). /13


.AVIATION (26.18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FCST AREA...BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. ALOFT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE SFC RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES OF
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN
FALL INTO THE THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXPECT CLOSER
TO THE COAST WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH SOME MIDDLE 70S ALONG IMMEDIATE BEACHES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY...AND THIS AREA IS ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
LIMITED IN THOSE LOCATIONS TODAY AND WILL CARRY A LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE THERE. DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRIMARILY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL
ALABAMA AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WILL EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND WILL CARRY
A 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL
LIKELY EXTEND THE THREAT OF INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
MID MORNING AS WINDS WILL NOT SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY. THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. 12/DS

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY EACH AFTERNOON.  ABUNDANT
GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE MAINLY INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD
WHILE DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR OVER INTERIOR PORTION SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.0 INCH OVER INTERIOR AREAS SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHILE VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST ADVANCE INTO THE
WESTERN HALF.  FOR WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT AND EDDIES IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL INITIATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN
FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD INITIATE SOME STORMS...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR THE COAST AND
GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER INTERIOR AREAS. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT THE SEA
BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
/29

MARINE...A STRONG HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WEAKENS. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT STILL
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MID DAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND FLOW RETURNS LATE WEEK WITH DECREASED SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  72  93  72  93 /  20  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  75  93  74  93 /  20  20  20  10  10
DESTIN      87  78  92  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   91  66  94  65  94 /  05  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  92  65  94  67  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  66  94  66  95 /  05  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  94  66  94 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 261733
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE LOW 90S. A SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR THE COAST REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON (<20%). /13


.AVIATION (26.18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FCST AREA...BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. ALOFT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE SFC RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES OF
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN
FALL INTO THE THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXPECT CLOSER
TO THE COAST WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH SOME MIDDLE 70S ALONG IMMEDIATE BEACHES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY...AND THIS AREA IS ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
LIMITED IN THOSE LOCATIONS TODAY AND WILL CARRY A LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE THERE. DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRIMARILY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL
ALABAMA AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WILL EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND WILL CARRY
A 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL
LIKELY EXTEND THE THREAT OF INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
MID MORNING AS WINDS WILL NOT SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY. THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. 12/DS

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY EACH AFTERNOON.  ABUNDANT
GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE MAINLY INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD
WHILE DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR OVER INTERIOR PORTION SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.0 INCH OVER INTERIOR AREAS SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHILE VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST ADVANCE INTO THE
WESTERN HALF.  FOR WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT AND EDDIES IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL INITIATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN
FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD INITIATE SOME STORMS...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR THE COAST AND
GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER INTERIOR AREAS. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT THE SEA
BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
/29

MARINE...A STRONG HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WEAKENS. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT STILL
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MID DAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND FLOW RETURNS LATE WEEK WITH DECREASED SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  72  93  72  93 /  20  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  75  93  74  93 /  20  20  20  10  10
DESTIN      87  78  92  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   91  66  94  65  94 /  05  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  92  65  94  67  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  66  94  66  95 /  05  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  94  66  94 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 261733
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE LOW 90S. A SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR THE COAST REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON (<20%). /13


.AVIATION (26.18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FCST AREA...BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. ALOFT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE SFC RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES OF
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN
FALL INTO THE THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXPECT CLOSER
TO THE COAST WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH SOME MIDDLE 70S ALONG IMMEDIATE BEACHES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY...AND THIS AREA IS ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
LIMITED IN THOSE LOCATIONS TODAY AND WILL CARRY A LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE THERE. DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRIMARILY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL
ALABAMA AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WILL EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND WILL CARRY
A 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL
LIKELY EXTEND THE THREAT OF INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
MID MORNING AS WINDS WILL NOT SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY. THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. 12/DS

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY EACH AFTERNOON.  ABUNDANT
GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE MAINLY INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD
WHILE DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR OVER INTERIOR PORTION SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.0 INCH OVER INTERIOR AREAS SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHILE VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST ADVANCE INTO THE
WESTERN HALF.  FOR WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT AND EDDIES IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL INITIATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN
FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD INITIATE SOME STORMS...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR THE COAST AND
GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER INTERIOR AREAS. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT THE SEA
BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
/29

MARINE...A STRONG HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WEAKENS. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT STILL
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MID DAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND FLOW RETURNS LATE WEEK WITH DECREASED SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  72  93  72  93 /  20  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  75  93  74  93 /  20  20  20  10  10
DESTIN      87  78  92  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   91  66  94  65  94 /  05  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  92  65  94  67  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  66  94  66  95 /  05  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  94  66  94 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 261733
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE LOW 90S. A SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR THE COAST REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON (<20%). /13


.AVIATION (26.18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FCST AREA...BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. ALOFT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE SFC RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES OF
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN
FALL INTO THE THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXPECT CLOSER
TO THE COAST WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH SOME MIDDLE 70S ALONG IMMEDIATE BEACHES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY...AND THIS AREA IS ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
LIMITED IN THOSE LOCATIONS TODAY AND WILL CARRY A LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE THERE. DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRIMARILY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL
ALABAMA AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WILL EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND WILL CARRY
A 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL
LIKELY EXTEND THE THREAT OF INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
MID MORNING AS WINDS WILL NOT SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY. THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. 12/DS

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY EACH AFTERNOON.  ABUNDANT
GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE MAINLY INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD
WHILE DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR OVER INTERIOR PORTION SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.0 INCH OVER INTERIOR AREAS SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHILE VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST ADVANCE INTO THE
WESTERN HALF.  FOR WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT AND EDDIES IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL INITIATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN
FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD INITIATE SOME STORMS...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR THE COAST AND
GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER INTERIOR AREAS. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT THE SEA
BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
/29

MARINE...A STRONG HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WEAKENS. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT STILL
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MID DAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND FLOW RETURNS LATE WEEK WITH DECREASED SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  72  93  72  93 /  20  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  75  93  74  93 /  20  20  20  10  10
DESTIN      87  78  92  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   91  66  94  65  94 /  05  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  92  65  94  67  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  66  94  66  95 /  05  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  94  66  94 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 261654 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1154 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS
&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME COINCIDENT WITH LIGHT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS ADDING LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
TN WITH SOME ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST
AL. OVERALL, ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR
BUT ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS AND INCLUDE LIGHT SHOWER WORDING. FOR
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AREAS, DRIER AIR FROM THE NE WILL KEEP SKIES
MORE CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TO NEAR EQUAL TEMPERATURES READINGS
TO NW LOCATIONS. THE ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND END
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE TEMPERED BACK HOURLY TEMPS GIVEN LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND REDUCED MAX HIGHS 1-2F DEGREES GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT OF
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS HITTING 90F DEGREES.
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT. /ALLEN/

&&

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... BAND OF MOISTURE AND MID CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THRU THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL, INCLUDING KMSL. BRIEF
SPRINKLES OR -SHRA WILL OCCUR, BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SKIRT JUST NW OF KHSV. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU MOST OF TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDS DUE
TO BR IS PSBL FROM 08-12Z. LIGHT TO CALM FLOW IS FORECAST THRU THE
PERIOD.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261654 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1154 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS
&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME COINCIDENT WITH LIGHT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS ADDING LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
TN WITH SOME ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST
AL. OVERALL, ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR
BUT ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS AND INCLUDE LIGHT SHOWER WORDING. FOR
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AREAS, DRIER AIR FROM THE NE WILL KEEP SKIES
MORE CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TO NEAR EQUAL TEMPERATURES READINGS
TO NW LOCATIONS. THE ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND END
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE TEMPERED BACK HOURLY TEMPS GIVEN LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND REDUCED MAX HIGHS 1-2F DEGREES GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT OF
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS HITTING 90F DEGREES.
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT. /ALLEN/

&&

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... BAND OF MOISTURE AND MID CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THRU THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL, INCLUDING KMSL. BRIEF
SPRINKLES OR -SHRA WILL OCCUR, BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SKIRT JUST NW OF KHSV. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU MOST OF TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDS DUE
TO BR IS PSBL FROM 08-12Z. LIGHT TO CALM FLOW IS FORECAST THRU THE
PERIOD.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 261602
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1102 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD AUGUST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL HELP IT FEEL A
LITTLE COOLER THAN THE THERMOMETER INDICATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS PROVIDES A FRESH FLOW OF
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR DOWN THE EAST COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THIS MORNING.

JD/02

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 261602
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1102 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD AUGUST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL HELP IT FEEL A
LITTLE COOLER THAN THE THERMOMETER INDICATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS PROVIDES A FRESH FLOW OF
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR DOWN THE EAST COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THIS MORNING.

JD/02

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KHUN 261513 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1013 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS UP TO 20% AND INCLUDED LIGHT SHOWER WORDING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND FOR PORTIONS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WAS
ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WITH HOURLY AND MAXIMUM HIGHS
REDUCED TO FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME COINCIDENT WITH LIGHT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS ADDING LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
TN WITH SOME ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST
AL. OVERALL, ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR
BUT ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS AND INCLUDE LIGHT SHOWER WORDING. FOR
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AREAS, DRIER AIR FROM THE NE WILL KEEP SKIES
MORE CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TO NEAR EQUAL TEMPERATURES READINGS
TO NW LOCATIONS. THE ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND END
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE TEMPERED BACK HOURLY TEMPS GIVEN LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND REDUCED MAX HIGHS 1-2F DEGREES GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT OF
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS HITTING 90F DEGREES.
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
FAIRLY QUIET WX CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
TUE MORNING...WITH A FEW LINGERING SPOTS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MID TN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SWWD...WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE E. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SEEM TO BE SHOWING THIS MID LEVEL POCKET OF DRIER AIR MIXING TO
THE SFC ACROSS THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES ACTING AS A POTENTIAL
WEAK FOCUS MECH LATER TODAY...AS THE SURGE PUSHES WWD. THIS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT QPF TRANSLATING SWWD ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION. AS OF NOW...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP LOOKS
TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
CERTAINLY CHANGE AS THE DAYTIME HRS PROGRESS. THE INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS DOES APPEAR TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EITHER WAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD BECOME BETTER
ENTRENCHED BY THE ONSET OF THE EVENING HRS...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S.

PRETTY MUCH DRY AND STAGNANT WX CONDS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION GOING PAST MID WEEK...AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE E
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK RIDGE AXIS
ALOFT TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD
ALSO AID WITH THE FAIRLY QUIET WX REGIME HEADING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES...WITH BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTING A MORE
ACTIVE SWLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OUT OF THE MID PLAINS STATES. WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING SFC HIGH TO THE E LATE IN
THE WEEK...MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE LATE FRI/EARLY SAT TIME FRAME. CONVECTION
THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE INTO SAT...AS MULTIPLE UPPER
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONCOMING TROUGH PATTERN BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH SUN
BEFORE CONDS PERHAPS BEGIN TO IMPROVE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO THE NE...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE
SFC STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ERN GULF REGION.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.






000
FXUS64 KHUN 261513 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1013 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS UP TO 20% AND INCLUDED LIGHT SHOWER WORDING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND FOR PORTIONS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WAS
ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WITH HOURLY AND MAXIMUM HIGHS
REDUCED TO FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME COINCIDENT WITH LIGHT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS ADDING LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
TN WITH SOME ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST
AL. OVERALL, ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR
BUT ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS AND INCLUDE LIGHT SHOWER WORDING. FOR
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AREAS, DRIER AIR FROM THE NE WILL KEEP SKIES
MORE CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TO NEAR EQUAL TEMPERATURES READINGS
TO NW LOCATIONS. THE ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND END
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE TEMPERED BACK HOURLY TEMPS GIVEN LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND REDUCED MAX HIGHS 1-2F DEGREES GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT OF
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS HITTING 90F DEGREES.
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
FAIRLY QUIET WX CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
TUE MORNING...WITH A FEW LINGERING SPOTS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MID TN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SWWD...WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE E. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SEEM TO BE SHOWING THIS MID LEVEL POCKET OF DRIER AIR MIXING TO
THE SFC ACROSS THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES ACTING AS A POTENTIAL
WEAK FOCUS MECH LATER TODAY...AS THE SURGE PUSHES WWD. THIS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT QPF TRANSLATING SWWD ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION. AS OF NOW...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP LOOKS
TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
CERTAINLY CHANGE AS THE DAYTIME HRS PROGRESS. THE INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS DOES APPEAR TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EITHER WAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD BECOME BETTER
ENTRENCHED BY THE ONSET OF THE EVENING HRS...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S.

PRETTY MUCH DRY AND STAGNANT WX CONDS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION GOING PAST MID WEEK...AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE E
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK RIDGE AXIS
ALOFT TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD
ALSO AID WITH THE FAIRLY QUIET WX REGIME HEADING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES...WITH BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTING A MORE
ACTIVE SWLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OUT OF THE MID PLAINS STATES. WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING SFC HIGH TO THE E LATE IN
THE WEEK...MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE LATE FRI/EARLY SAT TIME FRAME. CONVECTION
THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE INTO SAT...AS MULTIPLE UPPER
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONCOMING TROUGH PATTERN BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH SUN
BEFORE CONDS PERHAPS BEGIN TO IMPROVE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO THE NE...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE
SFC STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ERN GULF REGION.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.






000
FXUS64 KHUN 261513 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1013 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS UP TO 20% AND INCLUDED LIGHT SHOWER WORDING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND FOR PORTIONS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WAS
ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WITH HOURLY AND MAXIMUM HIGHS
REDUCED TO FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME COINCIDENT WITH LIGHT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS ADDING LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
TN WITH SOME ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST
AL. OVERALL, ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR
BUT ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS AND INCLUDE LIGHT SHOWER WORDING. FOR
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AREAS, DRIER AIR FROM THE NE WILL KEEP SKIES
MORE CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TO NEAR EQUAL TEMPERATURES READINGS
TO NW LOCATIONS. THE ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND END
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE TEMPERED BACK HOURLY TEMPS GIVEN LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND REDUCED MAX HIGHS 1-2F DEGREES GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT OF
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS HITTING 90F DEGREES.
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
FAIRLY QUIET WX CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
TUE MORNING...WITH A FEW LINGERING SPOTS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MID TN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SWWD...WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE E. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SEEM TO BE SHOWING THIS MID LEVEL POCKET OF DRIER AIR MIXING TO
THE SFC ACROSS THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES ACTING AS A POTENTIAL
WEAK FOCUS MECH LATER TODAY...AS THE SURGE PUSHES WWD. THIS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT QPF TRANSLATING SWWD ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION. AS OF NOW...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP LOOKS
TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
CERTAINLY CHANGE AS THE DAYTIME HRS PROGRESS. THE INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS DOES APPEAR TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EITHER WAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD BECOME BETTER
ENTRENCHED BY THE ONSET OF THE EVENING HRS...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S.

PRETTY MUCH DRY AND STAGNANT WX CONDS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION GOING PAST MID WEEK...AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE E
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK RIDGE AXIS
ALOFT TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD
ALSO AID WITH THE FAIRLY QUIET WX REGIME HEADING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES...WITH BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTING A MORE
ACTIVE SWLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OUT OF THE MID PLAINS STATES. WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING SFC HIGH TO THE E LATE IN
THE WEEK...MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE LATE FRI/EARLY SAT TIME FRAME. CONVECTION
THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE INTO SAT...AS MULTIPLE UPPER
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONCOMING TROUGH PATTERN BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH SUN
BEFORE CONDS PERHAPS BEGIN TO IMPROVE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO THE NE...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE
SFC STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ERN GULF REGION.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.






000
FXUS64 KHUN 261513 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1013 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS UP TO 20% AND INCLUDED LIGHT SHOWER WORDING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND FOR PORTIONS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WAS
ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WITH HOURLY AND MAXIMUM HIGHS
REDUCED TO FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME COINCIDENT WITH LIGHT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS ADDING LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
TN WITH SOME ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST
AL. OVERALL, ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR
BUT ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS AND INCLUDE LIGHT SHOWER WORDING. FOR
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AREAS, DRIER AIR FROM THE NE WILL KEEP SKIES
MORE CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TO NEAR EQUAL TEMPERATURES READINGS
TO NW LOCATIONS. THE ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND END
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE TEMPERED BACK HOURLY TEMPS GIVEN LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND REDUCED MAX HIGHS 1-2F DEGREES GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT OF
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS HITTING 90F DEGREES.
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
FAIRLY QUIET WX CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
TUE MORNING...WITH A FEW LINGERING SPOTS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MID TN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SWWD...WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE E. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SEEM TO BE SHOWING THIS MID LEVEL POCKET OF DRIER AIR MIXING TO
THE SFC ACROSS THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES ACTING AS A POTENTIAL
WEAK FOCUS MECH LATER TODAY...AS THE SURGE PUSHES WWD. THIS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT QPF TRANSLATING SWWD ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION. AS OF NOW...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP LOOKS
TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
CERTAINLY CHANGE AS THE DAYTIME HRS PROGRESS. THE INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS DOES APPEAR TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EITHER WAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD BECOME BETTER
ENTRENCHED BY THE ONSET OF THE EVENING HRS...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S.

PRETTY MUCH DRY AND STAGNANT WX CONDS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION GOING PAST MID WEEK...AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE E
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK RIDGE AXIS
ALOFT TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD
ALSO AID WITH THE FAIRLY QUIET WX REGIME HEADING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES...WITH BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTING A MORE
ACTIVE SWLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OUT OF THE MID PLAINS STATES. WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING SFC HIGH TO THE E LATE IN
THE WEEK...MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE LATE FRI/EARLY SAT TIME FRAME. CONVECTION
THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE INTO SAT...AS MULTIPLE UPPER
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONCOMING TROUGH PATTERN BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH SUN
BEFORE CONDS PERHAPS BEGIN TO IMPROVE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO THE NE...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE
SFC STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ERN GULF REGION.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.






000
FXUS64 KHUN 261153
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
653 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
FAIRLY QUIET WX CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
TUE MORNING...WITH A FEW LINGERING SPOTS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MID TN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SWWD...WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE E. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SEEM TO BE SHOWING THIS MID LEVEL POCKET OF DRIER AIR MIXING TO
THE SFC ACROSS THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES ACTING AS A POTENTIAL
WEAK FOCUS MECH LATER TODAY...AS THE SURGE PUSHES WWD. THIS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT QPF TRANSLATING SWWD ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION. AS OF NOW...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP LOOKS
TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
CERTAINLY CHANGE AS THE DAYTIME HRS PROGRESS. THE INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS DOES APPEAR TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EITHER WAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD BECOME BETTER
ENTRENCHED BY THE ONSET OF THE EVENING HRS...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S.

PRETTY MUCH DRY AND STAGNANT WX CONDS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION GOING PAST MID WEEK...AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE E
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK RIDGE AXIS
ALOFT TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD
ALSO AID WITH THE FAIRLY QUIET WX REGIME HEADING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES...WITH BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTING A MORE
ACTIVE SWLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OUT OF THE MID PLAINS STATES. WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING SFC HIGH TO THE E LATE IN
THE WEEK...MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE LATE FRI/EARLY SAT TIME FRAME. CONVECTION
THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE INTO SAT...AS MULTIPLE UPPER
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONCOMING TROUGH PATTERN BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH SUN
BEFORE CONDS PERHAPS BEGIN TO IMPROVE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO THE NE...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE
SFC STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ERN GULF REGION.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AT BOTH HSV/MSL...
WITH SCT CU/AC BTWN 5-9 KFT BENEATH SCT CI. A BKN DECK OF STRATOCU
MAY PERIODICALLY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ARND 5 KFT...BEFORE CLOUDS
BEGIN TO DISPERSE FROM SE-TO-NW LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. A FEW SHRA
WILL BE PSBL THIS AFTN IMMEDIATELY TO THE NW OF THE MSL TERMINAL...
BUT SHOULD BE MOVING SWWD AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT AND NOT DIRECTLY
IMPACT OPERATIONS. ALTHOUGH FEW CU MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ARND 5
KFT...CONDS WILL OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION WITH
LGT/VRBL WINDS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR 4SM/BR AT BOTH AIRPORTS BTWN
27/08-12Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 261134
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
634 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
THE EAST COAST PROVIDING AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THOSE EAST
WINDS WERE HELPING TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LACK
OF SURFACE MOISTURE WILL MEAN ZERO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY SLIDE A BIT EASTWARD BY THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
LOW LEVEL FLOW AT THIS TIME ALSO STARTS TO COME AROUND MORE FROM
THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL START TO TAP BACK INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE.
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL POPS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT
REALLY RAMP UP THE POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

61/87






000
FXUS64 KBMX 261134
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
634 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
THE EAST COAST PROVIDING AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THOSE EAST
WINDS WERE HELPING TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LACK
OF SURFACE MOISTURE WILL MEAN ZERO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY SLIDE A BIT EASTWARD BY THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
LOW LEVEL FLOW AT THIS TIME ALSO STARTS TO COME AROUND MORE FROM
THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL START TO TAP BACK INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE.
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL POPS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT
REALLY RAMP UP THE POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

61/87





000
FXUS64 KMOB 260932
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
432 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FCST AREA...BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. ALOFT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE SFC RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES OF
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN
FALL INTO THE THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXPECT CLOSER
TO THE COAST WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH SOME MIDDLE 70S ALONG IMMEDIATE BEACHES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY...AND THIS AREA IS ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
LIMITED IN THOSE LOCATIONS TODAY AND WILL CARRY A LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE THERE. DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRIMARILY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL
ALABAMA AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WILL EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND WILL CARRY
A 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL
LIKELY EXTEND THE THREAT OF INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
MID MORNING AS WINDS WILL NOT SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY. THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. 12/DS

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY EACH AFTERNOON.  ABUNDANT
GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE MAINLY INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD
WHILE DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR OVER INTERIOR PORTION SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.0 INCH OVER INTERIOR AREAS SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHILE VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST ADVANCE INTO THE
WESTERN HALF.  FOR WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT AND EDDIES IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL INITIATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN
FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD INITIATE SOME STORMS...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR THE COAST AND
GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER INTERIOR AREAS. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT THE SEA
BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
/29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED NEAR THE COAST AND EVEN MORE SO OVER INTERIOR AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5-7 KFT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCNL BRIEF
MID LEVEL CEILINGS POSSIBLE...BUT REMAINING AT VFR CRITERIA.
OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WEAKENS.
WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT STILL
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MID DAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS LATE WEEK WITH DECREASED SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  72  93  72  93 /  20  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  75  93  74  93 /  20  20  20  10  10
DESTIN      87  78  92  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   91  66  94  65  94 /  05  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  92  65  94  67  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  66  94  66  95 /  05  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  94  66  94 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 260932
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
432 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FCST AREA...BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. ALOFT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE SFC RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES OF
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN
FALL INTO THE THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXPECT CLOSER
TO THE COAST WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH SOME MIDDLE 70S ALONG IMMEDIATE BEACHES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY...AND THIS AREA IS ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
LIMITED IN THOSE LOCATIONS TODAY AND WILL CARRY A LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE THERE. DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRIMARILY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL
ALABAMA AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WILL EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND WILL CARRY
A 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL
LIKELY EXTEND THE THREAT OF INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
MID MORNING AS WINDS WILL NOT SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY. THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. 12/DS

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY EACH AFTERNOON.  ABUNDANT
GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE MAINLY INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD
WHILE DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR OVER INTERIOR PORTION SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.0 INCH OVER INTERIOR AREAS SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHILE VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST ADVANCE INTO THE
WESTERN HALF.  FOR WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT AND EDDIES IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL INITIATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN
FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD INITIATE SOME STORMS...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR THE COAST AND
GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER INTERIOR AREAS. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT THE SEA
BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
/29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED NEAR THE COAST AND EVEN MORE SO OVER INTERIOR AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5-7 KFT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCNL BRIEF
MID LEVEL CEILINGS POSSIBLE...BUT REMAINING AT VFR CRITERIA.
OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WEAKENS.
WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT STILL
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MID DAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS LATE WEEK WITH DECREASED SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  72  93  72  93 /  20  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  75  93  74  93 /  20  20  20  10  10
DESTIN      87  78  92  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   91  66  94  65  94 /  05  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  92  65  94  67  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  66  94  66  95 /  05  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  94  66  94 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 260932
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
432 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FCST AREA...BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. ALOFT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE SFC RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES OF
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN
FALL INTO THE THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXPECT CLOSER
TO THE COAST WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH SOME MIDDLE 70S ALONG IMMEDIATE BEACHES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY...AND THIS AREA IS ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
LIMITED IN THOSE LOCATIONS TODAY AND WILL CARRY A LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE THERE. DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRIMARILY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL
ALABAMA AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WILL EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND WILL CARRY
A 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL
LIKELY EXTEND THE THREAT OF INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
MID MORNING AS WINDS WILL NOT SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY. THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. 12/DS

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY EACH AFTERNOON.  ABUNDANT
GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE MAINLY INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD
WHILE DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR OVER INTERIOR PORTION SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.0 INCH OVER INTERIOR AREAS SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHILE VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST ADVANCE INTO THE
WESTERN HALF.  FOR WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT AND EDDIES IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL INITIATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN
FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD INITIATE SOME STORMS...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR THE COAST AND
GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER INTERIOR AREAS. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT THE SEA
BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
/29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED NEAR THE COAST AND EVEN MORE SO OVER INTERIOR AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5-7 KFT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCNL BRIEF
MID LEVEL CEILINGS POSSIBLE...BUT REMAINING AT VFR CRITERIA.
OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WEAKENS.
WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT STILL
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MID DAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS LATE WEEK WITH DECREASED SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  72  93  72  93 /  20  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  75  93  74  93 /  20  20  20  10  10
DESTIN      87  78  92  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   91  66  94  65  94 /  05  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  92  65  94  67  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  66  94  66  95 /  05  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  94  66  94 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 260932
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
432 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FCST AREA...BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. ALOFT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE SFC RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES OF
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN
FALL INTO THE THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXPECT CLOSER
TO THE COAST WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH SOME MIDDLE 70S ALONG IMMEDIATE BEACHES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY...AND THIS AREA IS ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
LIMITED IN THOSE LOCATIONS TODAY AND WILL CARRY A LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE THERE. DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRIMARILY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COASTAL
ALABAMA AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WILL EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND WILL CARRY
A 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL
LIKELY EXTEND THE THREAT OF INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
MID MORNING AS WINDS WILL NOT SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY. THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. 12/DS

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY EACH AFTERNOON.  ABUNDANT
GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE MAINLY INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD
WHILE DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR OVER INTERIOR PORTION SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.0 INCH OVER INTERIOR AREAS SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHILE VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST ADVANCE INTO THE
WESTERN HALF.  FOR WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT AND EDDIES IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL INITIATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN
FOURTH OF THE AREA WHERE GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD INITIATE SOME STORMS...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR THE COAST AND
GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER INTERIOR AREAS. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT THE SEA
BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
/29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED NEAR THE COAST AND EVEN MORE SO OVER INTERIOR AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5-7 KFT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCNL BRIEF
MID LEVEL CEILINGS POSSIBLE...BUT REMAINING AT VFR CRITERIA.
OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WEAKENS.
WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT STILL
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MID DAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS LATE WEEK WITH DECREASED SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  72  93  72  93 /  20  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  75  93  74  93 /  20  20  20  10  10
DESTIN      87  78  92  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   91  66  94  65  94 /  05  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  92  65  94  67  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  66  94  66  95 /  05  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  94  66  94 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 260923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
THE EAST COAST PROVIDING AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THOSE EAST
WINDS WERE HELPING TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LACK
OF SURFACE MOISTURE WILL MEAN ZERO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY SLIDE A BIT EASTWARD BY THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
LOW LEVEL FLOW AT THIS TIME ALSO STARTS TO COME AROUND MORE FROM
THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL START TO TAP BACK INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE.
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL POPS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT
REALLY RAMP UP THE POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON TUESDAY WITH E/NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     89  65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    89  65  91  66  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  90  68  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  92  67  94  68  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      91  67  93  68  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  67  91  67  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  92  68  94  68  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        91  67  92  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 260923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
THE EAST COAST PROVIDING AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THOSE EAST
WINDS WERE HELPING TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LACK
OF SURFACE MOISTURE WILL MEAN ZERO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY SLIDE A BIT EASTWARD BY THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
LOW LEVEL FLOW AT THIS TIME ALSO STARTS TO COME AROUND MORE FROM
THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL START TO TAP BACK INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE.
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL POPS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT
REALLY RAMP UP THE POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON TUESDAY WITH E/NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     89  65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    89  65  91  66  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  90  68  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  92  67  94  68  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      91  67  93  68  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  67  91  67  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  92  68  94  68  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        91  67  92  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 260740
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
240 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET WX CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
TUE MORNING...WITH A FEW LINGERING SPOTS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MID TN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SWWD...WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE E. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SEEM TO BE SHOWING THIS MID LEVEL POCKET OF DRIER AIR MIXING TO
THE SFC ACROSS THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES ACTING AS A POTENTIAL
WEAK FOCUS MECH LATER TODAY...AS THE SURGE PUSHES WWD. THIS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT QPF TRANSLATING SWWD ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION. AS OF NOW...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP LOOKS
TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
CERTAINLY CHANGE AS THE DAYTIME HRS PROGRESS. THE INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS DOES APPEAR TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EITHER WAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD BECOME BETTER
ENTRENCHED BY THE ONSET OF THE EVENING HRS...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S.

PRETTY MUCH DRY AND STAGNANT WX CONDS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION GOING PAST MID WEEK...AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE E
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK RIDGE AXIS
ALOFT TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD
ALSO AID WITH THE FAIRLY QUIET WX REGIME HEADING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES...WITH BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTING A MORE
ACTIVE SWLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OUT OF THE MID PLAINS STATES. WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING SFC HIGH TO THE E LATE IN
THE WEEK...MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE LATE FRI/EARLY SAT TIME FRAME. CONVECTION
THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE INTO SAT...AS MULTIPLE UPPER
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONCOMING TROUGH PATTERN BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH SUN
BEFORE CONDS PERHAPS BEGIN TO IMPROVE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO THE NE...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE
SFC STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ERN GULF REGION.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1246 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE BUT PATCHY MVFR FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY AROUND
KMSL...AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WEATHER IS OTHERWISE FORECAST FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SE IN THE 5-10KT RANGE A
FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER DUSK
EARLY TUE EVENING.

RSB/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    90  64  94  66 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        91  64  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      88  65  91  65 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  87  63  90  64 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   89  62  91  63 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    89  61  91  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260740
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
240 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET WX CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY
TUE MORNING...WITH A FEW LINGERING SPOTS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MID TN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SWWD...WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE E. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SEEM TO BE SHOWING THIS MID LEVEL POCKET OF DRIER AIR MIXING TO
THE SFC ACROSS THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES ACTING AS A POTENTIAL
WEAK FOCUS MECH LATER TODAY...AS THE SURGE PUSHES WWD. THIS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT QPF TRANSLATING SWWD ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION. AS OF NOW...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP LOOKS
TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
CERTAINLY CHANGE AS THE DAYTIME HRS PROGRESS. THE INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS DOES APPEAR TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EITHER WAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD BECOME BETTER
ENTRENCHED BY THE ONSET OF THE EVENING HRS...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S.

PRETTY MUCH DRY AND STAGNANT WX CONDS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION GOING PAST MID WEEK...AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE E
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK RIDGE AXIS
ALOFT TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD
ALSO AID WITH THE FAIRLY QUIET WX REGIME HEADING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES...WITH BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTING A MORE
ACTIVE SWLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OUT OF THE MID PLAINS STATES. WITH RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING SFC HIGH TO THE E LATE IN
THE WEEK...MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE LATE FRI/EARLY SAT TIME FRAME. CONVECTION
THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE INTO SAT...AS MULTIPLE UPPER
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONCOMING TROUGH PATTERN BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH SUN
BEFORE CONDS PERHAPS BEGIN TO IMPROVE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO THE NE...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE
SFC STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ERN GULF REGION.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1246 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE BUT PATCHY MVFR FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY AROUND
KMSL...AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WEATHER IS OTHERWISE FORECAST FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SE IN THE 5-10KT RANGE A
FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER DUSK
EARLY TUE EVENING.

RSB/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    90  64  94  66 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        91  64  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      88  65  91  65 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  87  63  90  64 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   89  62  91  63 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    89  61  91  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 260546 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1246 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 932 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A WEDGE FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY
BROUGHT SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-7 DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOCALLY...
MID EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. EVEN DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT JUST TO OUR EAST...WITH
50/60 VALUES OVER GEORGIA AND WESTERN CAROLINAS.

DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...A PASSING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE...OR FROM
NW OF MANCHESTER TO BETWEEN FAYETTEVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. NO LIGHTNING
HAS OCCURRED OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY VALUES SO
FAR STAYING BELOW THE MELTING LAYER ~16-17 FT ASL. PRECIP WATER
VALUES FROM AREA SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSIS RANGED FROM ABOUT 1.4 INCHES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS...TO OVER 2 INCHES OVER NW ALABAMA.

WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE NOTED SHOWERS...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
RUC...AS WELL AS EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIRES MODELS HAVE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...AM BANKING THAT
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT
MINIMIZED...OR NOT ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT ADDING TO THE GRIDS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE BUT PATCHY MVFR FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY AROUND
KMSL...AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WEATHER IS OTHERWISE FORECAST FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SE IN THE 5-10KT RANGE A
FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER DUSK
EARLY TUE EVENING.

RSB/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260546 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1246 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 932 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A WEDGE FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY
BROUGHT SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-7 DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOCALLY...
MID EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. EVEN DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT JUST TO OUR EAST...WITH
50/60 VALUES OVER GEORGIA AND WESTERN CAROLINAS.

DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...A PASSING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE...OR FROM
NW OF MANCHESTER TO BETWEEN FAYETTEVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. NO LIGHTNING
HAS OCCURRED OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY VALUES SO
FAR STAYING BELOW THE MELTING LAYER ~16-17 FT ASL. PRECIP WATER
VALUES FROM AREA SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSIS RANGED FROM ABOUT 1.4 INCHES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS...TO OVER 2 INCHES OVER NW ALABAMA.

WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE NOTED SHOWERS...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
RUC...AS WELL AS EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIRES MODELS HAVE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...AM BANKING THAT
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT
MINIMIZED...OR NOT ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT ADDING TO THE GRIDS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE BUT PATCHY MVFR FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY AROUND
KMSL...AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WEATHER IS OTHERWISE FORECAST FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SE IN THE 5-10KT RANGE A
FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER DUSK
EARLY TUE EVENING.

RSB/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260546 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1246 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 932 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A WEDGE FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY
BROUGHT SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-7 DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOCALLY...
MID EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. EVEN DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT JUST TO OUR EAST...WITH
50/60 VALUES OVER GEORGIA AND WESTERN CAROLINAS.

DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...A PASSING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE...OR FROM
NW OF MANCHESTER TO BETWEEN FAYETTEVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. NO LIGHTNING
HAS OCCURRED OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY VALUES SO
FAR STAYING BELOW THE MELTING LAYER ~16-17 FT ASL. PRECIP WATER
VALUES FROM AREA SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSIS RANGED FROM ABOUT 1.4 INCHES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS...TO OVER 2 INCHES OVER NW ALABAMA.

WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE NOTED SHOWERS...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
RUC...AS WELL AS EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIRES MODELS HAVE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...AM BANKING THAT
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT
MINIMIZED...OR NOT ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT ADDING TO THE GRIDS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE BUT PATCHY MVFR FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY AROUND
KMSL...AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WEATHER IS OTHERWISE FORECAST FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SE IN THE 5-10KT RANGE A
FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER DUSK
EARLY TUE EVENING.

RSB/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260546 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1246 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 932 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A WEDGE FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY
BROUGHT SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-7 DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOCALLY...
MID EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. EVEN DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT JUST TO OUR EAST...WITH
50/60 VALUES OVER GEORGIA AND WESTERN CAROLINAS.

DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...A PASSING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE...OR FROM
NW OF MANCHESTER TO BETWEEN FAYETTEVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. NO LIGHTNING
HAS OCCURRED OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY VALUES SO
FAR STAYING BELOW THE MELTING LAYER ~16-17 FT ASL. PRECIP WATER
VALUES FROM AREA SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSIS RANGED FROM ABOUT 1.4 INCHES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS...TO OVER 2 INCHES OVER NW ALABAMA.

WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE NOTED SHOWERS...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
RUC...AS WELL AS EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIRES MODELS HAVE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...AM BANKING THAT
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT
MINIMIZED...OR NOT ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT ADDING TO THE GRIDS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE BUT PATCHY MVFR FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY AROUND
KMSL...AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WEATHER IS OTHERWISE FORECAST FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SE IN THE 5-10KT RANGE A
FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER DUSK
EARLY TUE EVENING.

RSB/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 260507
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1207 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 26/0600Z TAFS...KEPT THE FORECAST AS IS EXCEPT
THAT WE BROUGHT THE WIND UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALL
TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE...WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 KNOTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE FOR 26/0000Z TAFS...KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY AS IS
EXCEPT THAT WE BROUGHT THE WIND UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PNS. THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE...WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 KNOTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SPAWNED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE DRIER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS RADIATE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. /13

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP
TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HUGE THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 89 TO 94
DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS STATES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRENDING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22

AVIATION [25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   73  91  75  92  74 /  10  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      75  90  76  91  76 /  10  10  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   66  93  67  93  65 /  10  05  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  93  65  94  68 /  10  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      65  92  66  94  67 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  92  70  93  66 /  10  10  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 260507
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1207 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 26/0600Z TAFS...KEPT THE FORECAST AS IS EXCEPT
THAT WE BROUGHT THE WIND UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALL
TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE...WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 KNOTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE FOR 26/0000Z TAFS...KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY AS IS
EXCEPT THAT WE BROUGHT THE WIND UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PNS. THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE...WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 KNOTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SPAWNED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE DRIER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS RADIATE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. /13

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP
TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HUGE THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 89 TO 94
DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS STATES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRENDING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22

AVIATION [25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   73  91  75  92  74 /  10  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      75  90  76  91  76 /  10  10  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   66  93  67  93  65 /  10  05  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  93  65  94  68 /  10  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      65  92  66  94  67 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  92  70  93  66 /  10  10  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 260435
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES DROPPING AT A SLOWER RATE THAN EXPECTED SO ADJUSTED
SOME HOURLIES AND MIGHT HAVE NUDGED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A LITTLE
IN THE WEST. OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. UPDATE IS OUT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON TUESDAY WITH E/NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  89  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  90  66  93  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      68  89  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      65  87  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  89  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 260435
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES DROPPING AT A SLOWER RATE THAN EXPECTED SO ADJUSTED
SOME HOURLIES AND MIGHT HAVE NUDGED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A LITTLE
IN THE WEST. OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. UPDATE IS OUT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON TUESDAY WITH E/NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  89  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  90  66  93  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      68  89  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      65  87  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  89  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 260435
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES DROPPING AT A SLOWER RATE THAN EXPECTED SO ADJUSTED
SOME HOURLIES AND MIGHT HAVE NUDGED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A LITTLE
IN THE WEST. OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. UPDATE IS OUT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON TUESDAY WITH E/NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  89  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  90  66  93  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      68  89  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      65  87  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  89  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 260435
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES DROPPING AT A SLOWER RATE THAN EXPECTED SO ADJUSTED
SOME HOURLIES AND MIGHT HAVE NUDGED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A LITTLE
IN THE WEST. OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. UPDATE IS OUT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON TUESDAY WITH E/NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  89  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  90  66  93  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      68  89  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      65  87  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  89  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 260232 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
932 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PER A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SHOWERS AFFECTING
OUR MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A WEDGE FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY
BROUGHT SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-7 DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOCALLY...
MID EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. EVEN DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT JUST TO OUR EAST...WITH
50/60 VALUES OVER GEORGIA AND WESTERN CAROLINAS.

DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...A PASSING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE...OR FROM
NW OF MANCHESTER TO BETWEEN FAYETTEVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. NO LIGHTNING
HAS OCCURRED OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY VALUES SO
FAR STAYING BELOW THE MELTING LAYER ~16-17 FT ASL. PRECIP WATER
VALUES FROM AREA SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSIS RANGED FROM ABOUT 1.4 INCHES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS...TO OVER 2 INCHES OVER NW ALABAMA.

WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE NOTED SHOWERS...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
RUC...AS WELL AS EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIRES MODELS HAVE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...AM BANKING THAT
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT
MINIMIZED...OR NOT ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT ADDING TO THE GRIDS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON AUG 25- 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT. SE WINDS 5-10KT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE E-SE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG/MIST AT
THE KMSL SITE BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. VFR WEATHER AND SE WINDS IN THE
5-10KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID MORNING...CONTINUING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
THE "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE HAS PUSHED
WESTWARD INTO MS. THIS FACT WILL MINIMIZE PRECIP CHCS THE REST OF
THIS AFTN, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL POP UP MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS WE ARE SEEING IN MIDDLE KY/TN. WE WILL REMOVE
POPS FROM THIS EVENING AS LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD BE THE DEMISE OF ANY
REMAINING SHRA. DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA ON E-SELY FLOW. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL/ERN GA. WE MAY SEE DEWPOINTS FALL TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S, WITH L60S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS PSBL.

FINE WX FOR LATE AUGUST IS AHEAD THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AS A RESULT OF THIS AIRMASS ADJUSTMENT. PW VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW AN INCH THRU THURSDAY BEFORE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO NAM/MET VALUES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH L90S RETURNING WEDNESDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
ABOUT AS IS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH A GROWING THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
GENERATING AN MCV THAT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL A BIT
INDETERMINABLE. NEVERTHELESS, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE A DEEPER COLUMN
OF S-SWLY FLOW FROM THE VERY WARM/MOIST GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL ALSO
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE UPPER TROP TROF IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL PUSH WEST INTO TX, OR BE LIFTED INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS TROF NEARS. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING AN EVEN
HIGHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 260232 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
932 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PER A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SHOWERS AFFECTING
OUR MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A WEDGE FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY
BROUGHT SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-7 DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOCALLY...
MID EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. EVEN DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT JUST TO OUR EAST...WITH
50/60 VALUES OVER GEORGIA AND WESTERN CAROLINAS.

DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...A PASSING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE...OR FROM
NW OF MANCHESTER TO BETWEEN FAYETTEVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. NO LIGHTNING
HAS OCCURRED OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY VALUES SO
FAR STAYING BELOW THE MELTING LAYER ~16-17 FT ASL. PRECIP WATER
VALUES FROM AREA SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSIS RANGED FROM ABOUT 1.4 INCHES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS...TO OVER 2 INCHES OVER NW ALABAMA.

WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE NOTED SHOWERS...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
RUC...AS WELL AS EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIRES MODELS HAVE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...AM BANKING THAT
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT
MINIMIZED...OR NOT ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT ADDING TO THE GRIDS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON AUG 25- 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT. SE WINDS 5-10KT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE E-SE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG/MIST AT
THE KMSL SITE BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. VFR WEATHER AND SE WINDS IN THE
5-10KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID MORNING...CONTINUING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
THE "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE HAS PUSHED
WESTWARD INTO MS. THIS FACT WILL MINIMIZE PRECIP CHCS THE REST OF
THIS AFTN, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL POP UP MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS WE ARE SEEING IN MIDDLE KY/TN. WE WILL REMOVE
POPS FROM THIS EVENING AS LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD BE THE DEMISE OF ANY
REMAINING SHRA. DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA ON E-SELY FLOW. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL/ERN GA. WE MAY SEE DEWPOINTS FALL TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S, WITH L60S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS PSBL.

FINE WX FOR LATE AUGUST IS AHEAD THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AS A RESULT OF THIS AIRMASS ADJUSTMENT. PW VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW AN INCH THRU THURSDAY BEFORE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO NAM/MET VALUES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH L90S RETURNING WEDNESDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
ABOUT AS IS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH A GROWING THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
GENERATING AN MCV THAT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL A BIT
INDETERMINABLE. NEVERTHELESS, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE A DEEPER COLUMN
OF S-SWLY FLOW FROM THE VERY WARM/MOIST GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL ALSO
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE UPPER TROP TROF IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL PUSH WEST INTO TX, OR BE LIFTED INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS TROF NEARS. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING AN EVEN
HIGHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 260232 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
932 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PER A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SHOWERS AFFECTING
OUR MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A WEDGE FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY
BROUGHT SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-7 DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOCALLY...
MID EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. EVEN DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT JUST TO OUR EAST...WITH
50/60 VALUES OVER GEORGIA AND WESTERN CAROLINAS.

DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...A PASSING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE...OR FROM
NW OF MANCHESTER TO BETWEEN FAYETTEVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. NO LIGHTNING
HAS OCCURRED OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY VALUES SO
FAR STAYING BELOW THE MELTING LAYER ~16-17 FT ASL. PRECIP WATER
VALUES FROM AREA SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSIS RANGED FROM ABOUT 1.4 INCHES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS...TO OVER 2 INCHES OVER NW ALABAMA.

WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE NOTED SHOWERS...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
RUC...AS WELL AS EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIRES MODELS HAVE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...AM BANKING THAT
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT
MINIMIZED...OR NOT ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT ADDING TO THE GRIDS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON AUG 25- 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT. SE WINDS 5-10KT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE E-SE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG/MIST AT
THE KMSL SITE BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. VFR WEATHER AND SE WINDS IN THE
5-10KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID MORNING...CONTINUING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
THE "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE HAS PUSHED
WESTWARD INTO MS. THIS FACT WILL MINIMIZE PRECIP CHCS THE REST OF
THIS AFTN, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL POP UP MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS WE ARE SEEING IN MIDDLE KY/TN. WE WILL REMOVE
POPS FROM THIS EVENING AS LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD BE THE DEMISE OF ANY
REMAINING SHRA. DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA ON E-SELY FLOW. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL/ERN GA. WE MAY SEE DEWPOINTS FALL TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S, WITH L60S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS PSBL.

FINE WX FOR LATE AUGUST IS AHEAD THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AS A RESULT OF THIS AIRMASS ADJUSTMENT. PW VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW AN INCH THRU THURSDAY BEFORE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO NAM/MET VALUES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH L90S RETURNING WEDNESDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
ABOUT AS IS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH A GROWING THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
GENERATING AN MCV THAT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL A BIT
INDETERMINABLE. NEVERTHELESS, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE A DEEPER COLUMN
OF S-SWLY FLOW FROM THE VERY WARM/MOIST GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL ALSO
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE UPPER TROP TROF IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL PUSH WEST INTO TX, OR BE LIFTED INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS TROF NEARS. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING AN EVEN
HIGHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 260232 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
932 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PER A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SHOWERS AFFECTING
OUR MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A WEDGE FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY
BROUGHT SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-7 DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOCALLY...
MID EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. EVEN DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT JUST TO OUR EAST...WITH
50/60 VALUES OVER GEORGIA AND WESTERN CAROLINAS.

DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...A PASSING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE...OR FROM
NW OF MANCHESTER TO BETWEEN FAYETTEVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. NO LIGHTNING
HAS OCCURRED OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY VALUES SO
FAR STAYING BELOW THE MELTING LAYER ~16-17 FT ASL. PRECIP WATER
VALUES FROM AREA SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSIS RANGED FROM ABOUT 1.4 INCHES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS...TO OVER 2 INCHES OVER NW ALABAMA.

WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE NOTED SHOWERS...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
RUC...AS WELL AS EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIRES MODELS HAVE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...AM BANKING THAT
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT
MINIMIZED...OR NOT ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT ADDING TO THE GRIDS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON AUG 25- 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT. SE WINDS 5-10KT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE E-SE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG/MIST AT
THE KMSL SITE BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. VFR WEATHER AND SE WINDS IN THE
5-10KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID MORNING...CONTINUING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
THE "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE HAS PUSHED
WESTWARD INTO MS. THIS FACT WILL MINIMIZE PRECIP CHCS THE REST OF
THIS AFTN, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL POP UP MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS WE ARE SEEING IN MIDDLE KY/TN. WE WILL REMOVE
POPS FROM THIS EVENING AS LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD BE THE DEMISE OF ANY
REMAINING SHRA. DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA ON E-SELY FLOW. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL/ERN GA. WE MAY SEE DEWPOINTS FALL TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S, WITH L60S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS PSBL.

FINE WX FOR LATE AUGUST IS AHEAD THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AS A RESULT OF THIS AIRMASS ADJUSTMENT. PW VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW AN INCH THRU THURSDAY BEFORE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO NAM/MET VALUES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH L90S RETURNING WEDNESDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
ABOUT AS IS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH A GROWING THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
GENERATING AN MCV THAT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL A BIT
INDETERMINABLE. NEVERTHELESS, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE A DEEPER COLUMN
OF S-SWLY FLOW FROM THE VERY WARM/MOIST GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL ALSO
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE UPPER TROP TROF IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL PUSH WEST INTO TX, OR BE LIFTED INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS TROF NEARS. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING AN EVEN
HIGHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 260208
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
908 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES DROPPING AT A SLOWER RATE THAN EXPECTED SO ADJUSTED
SOME HOURLIES AND MIGHT HAVE NUDGED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A LITTLE
IN THE WEST. OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. UPDATE IS OUT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR W/NW CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT TCL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.

19


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 260021 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
653 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 26/0000Z TAFS...KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY AS IS
EXCEPT THAT WE BROUGHT THE WIND UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PNS. THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE...WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 KNOTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SPAWNED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE DRIER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS RADIATE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. /13

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP
TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HUGE THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 89 TO 94
DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS STATES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRENDING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22

AVIATION [25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   73  91  75  92  74 /  10  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      75  90  76  91  76 /  10  10  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   66  93  67  93  65 /  10  05  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  93  65  94  68 /  10  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      65  92  66  94  67 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  92  70  93  66 /  10  10  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 260021 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
653 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 26/0000Z TAFS...KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY AS IS
EXCEPT THAT WE BROUGHT THE WIND UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PNS. THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE...WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 KNOTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SPAWNED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE DRIER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS RADIATE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. /13

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP
TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HUGE THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 89 TO 94
DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS STATES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRENDING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22

AVIATION [25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   73  91  75  92  74 /  10  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      75  90  76  91  76 /  10  10  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   66  93  67  93  65 /  10  05  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  93  65  94  68 /  10  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      65  92  66  94  67 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  92  70  93  66 /  10  10  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KMOB 252358 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
653 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 26/0000Z TAFS...KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY AS IS
EXCEPT THAT WE BROUGHT THE WIND UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PNS. THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE...WIND WILL BE 5 TO 7 KNOTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SPAWNED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE DRIER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS RADIATE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. /13

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP
TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HUGE THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 89 TO 94
DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS STATES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRENDING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22

AVIATION [25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   73  91  75  92  74 /  10  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      75  90  76  91  76 /  10  10  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   66  93  67  93  65 /  10  05  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  93  65  94  68 /  10  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      65  92  66  94  67 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  92  70  93  66 /  10  10  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 252353
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
653 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 26/0000Z TAFS...KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY AS IS
EXCEPT THAT WE BROUGHT THE WIND UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PNS. THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SPAWNED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE DRIER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS RADIATE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. /13

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP
TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HUGE THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 89 TO 94
DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS STATES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRENDING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22

AVIATION [25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   73  91  75  92  74 /  10  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      75  90  76  91  76 /  10  10  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   66  93  67  93  65 /  10  05  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  93  65  94  68 /  10  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      65  92  66  94  67 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  92  70  93  66 /  10  10  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 252353
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
653 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 26/0000Z TAFS...KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY AS IS
EXCEPT THAT WE BROUGHT THE WIND UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PNS. THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SPAWNED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE DRIER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS RADIATE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. /13

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP
TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HUGE THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 89 TO 94
DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS STATES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRENDING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22

AVIATION [25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   73  91  75  92  74 /  10  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      75  90  76  91  76 /  10  10  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   66  93  67  93  65 /  10  05  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  93  65  94  68 /  10  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      65  92  66  94  67 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  92  70  93  66 /  10  10  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 252353
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
653 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 26/0000Z TAFS...KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY AS IS
EXCEPT THAT WE BROUGHT THE WIND UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PNS. THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SPAWNED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE DRIER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS RADIATE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. /13

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP
TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HUGE THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 89 TO 94
DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS STATES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRENDING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22

AVIATION [25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   73  91  75  92  74 /  10  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      75  90  76  91  76 /  10  10  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   66  93  67  93  65 /  10  05  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  93  65  94  68 /  10  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      65  92  66  94  67 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  92  70  93  66 /  10  10  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 252353
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
653 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 26/0000Z TAFS...KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY AS IS
EXCEPT THAT WE BROUGHT THE WIND UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PNS. THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SPAWNED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE DRIER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS RADIATE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. /13

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP
TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HUGE THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 89 TO 94
DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS STATES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRENDING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22

AVIATION [25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   73  91  75  92  74 /  10  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      75  90  76  91  76 /  10  10  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   66  93  67  93  65 /  10  05  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  93  65  94  68 /  10  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      65  92  66  94  67 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  92  70  93  66 /  10  10  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 252335 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
635 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
THE "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE HAS PUSHED
WESTWARD INTO MS. THIS FACT WILL MINIMIZE PRECIP CHCS THE REST OF
THIS AFTN, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL POP UP MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS WE ARE SEEING IN MIDDLE KY/TN. WE WILL REMOVE
POPS FROM THIS EVENING AS LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD BE THE DEMISE OF ANY
REMAINING SHRA. DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA ON E-SELY FLOW. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL/ERN GA. WE MAY SEE DEWPOINTS FALL TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S, WITH L60S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS PSBL.

FINE WX FOR LATE AUGUST IS AHEAD THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AS A RESULT OF THIS AIRMASS ADJUSTMENT. PW VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW AN INCH THRU THURSDAY BEFORE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO NAM/MET VALUES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH L90S RETURNING WEDNESDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
ABOUT AS IS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH A GROWING THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
GENERATING AN MCV THAT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL A BIT
INDETERMINABLE. NEVERTHELESS, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE A DEEPER COLUMN
OF S-SWLY FLOW FROM THE VERY WARM/MOIST GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL ALSO
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE UPPER TROP TROF IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL PUSH WEST INTO TX, OR BE LIFTED INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS TROF NEARS. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING AN EVEN
HIGHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT. SE WINDS 5-10KT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE E-SE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG/MIST AT
THE KMSL SITE BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. VFR WEATHER AND SE WINDS IN THE
5-10KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID MORNING...CONTINUING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 252335 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
635 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 130 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
THE "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE HAS PUSHED
WESTWARD INTO MS. THIS FACT WILL MINIMIZE PRECIP CHCS THE REST OF
THIS AFTN, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL POP UP MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS WE ARE SEEING IN MIDDLE KY/TN. WE WILL REMOVE
POPS FROM THIS EVENING AS LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD BE THE DEMISE OF ANY
REMAINING SHRA. DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA ON E-SELY FLOW. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL/ERN GA. WE MAY SEE DEWPOINTS FALL TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S, WITH L60S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS PSBL.

FINE WX FOR LATE AUGUST IS AHEAD THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AS A RESULT OF THIS AIRMASS ADJUSTMENT. PW VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW AN INCH THRU THURSDAY BEFORE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO NAM/MET VALUES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH L90S RETURNING WEDNESDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
ABOUT AS IS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH A GROWING THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
GENERATING AN MCV THAT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL A BIT
INDETERMINABLE. NEVERTHELESS, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE A DEEPER COLUMN
OF S-SWLY FLOW FROM THE VERY WARM/MOIST GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL ALSO
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE UPPER TROP TROF IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL PUSH WEST INTO TX, OR BE LIFTED INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS TROF NEARS. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING AN EVEN
HIGHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT. SE WINDS 5-10KT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE E-SE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG/MIST AT
THE KMSL SITE BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. VFR WEATHER AND SE WINDS IN THE
5-10KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID MORNING...CONTINUING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 252323
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO OVER
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE EAST TO WEST MOVING COLD FRONT. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONTINUED DRY
EASTERLY FLOW IS THANKS TO THIS SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED AS FAR WEST
AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL OCCURRING CLOSE
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLOSER TO HOME...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS MUCH LOWER PW VALUES PUSH IN FROM THE
EAST. CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
GEORGIA.

THE DRY FORECAST THEME CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS
INDICATE THAT PW VALUES DROP BELOW 0.75 INCHES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. HOWEVER...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
BUT SHOULD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES.

MOISTURE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY BRINGS BACK MOISTURE WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE FEATURES. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 50
PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR W/NW CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT TCL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  66  89  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  67  90  66  93  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      66  89  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      64  87  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        65  89  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 252323
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO OVER
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE EAST TO WEST MOVING COLD FRONT. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONTINUED DRY
EASTERLY FLOW IS THANKS TO THIS SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED AS FAR WEST
AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL OCCURRING CLOSE
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLOSER TO HOME...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS MUCH LOWER PW VALUES PUSH IN FROM THE
EAST. CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
GEORGIA.

THE DRY FORECAST THEME CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS
INDICATE THAT PW VALUES DROP BELOW 0.75 INCHES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. HOWEVER...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
BUT SHOULD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES.

MOISTURE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY BRINGS BACK MOISTURE WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE FEATURES. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 50
PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR W/NW CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT TCL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  66  89  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  67  90  66  93  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      66  89  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      64  87  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        65  89  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 252323
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO OVER
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE EAST TO WEST MOVING COLD FRONT. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONTINUED DRY
EASTERLY FLOW IS THANKS TO THIS SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED AS FAR WEST
AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL OCCURRING CLOSE
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLOSER TO HOME...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS MUCH LOWER PW VALUES PUSH IN FROM THE
EAST. CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
GEORGIA.

THE DRY FORECAST THEME CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS
INDICATE THAT PW VALUES DROP BELOW 0.75 INCHES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. HOWEVER...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
BUT SHOULD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES.

MOISTURE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY BRINGS BACK MOISTURE WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE FEATURES. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 50
PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR W/NW CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT TCL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  66  89  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  67  90  66  93  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      66  89  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      64  87  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        65  89  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 252323
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO OVER
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE EAST TO WEST MOVING COLD FRONT. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONTINUED DRY
EASTERLY FLOW IS THANKS TO THIS SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED AS FAR WEST
AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL OCCURRING CLOSE
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLOSER TO HOME...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS MUCH LOWER PW VALUES PUSH IN FROM THE
EAST. CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
GEORGIA.

THE DRY FORECAST THEME CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS
INDICATE THAT PW VALUES DROP BELOW 0.75 INCHES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. HOWEVER...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
BUT SHOULD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES.

MOISTURE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY BRINGS BACK MOISTURE WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE FEATURES. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 50
PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR W/NW CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT TCL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  66  89  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  67  90  66  93  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      66  89  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      64  87  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        65  89  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 252050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SPAWNED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE DRIER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS RADIATE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. /13

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP
TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HUGE THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 89 TO 94
DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS STATES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRENDING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22

&&

.AVIATION [25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   73  91  75  92  74 /  10  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      75  90  76  91  76 /  10  10  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   66  93  67  93  65 /  10  05  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  93  65  94  68 /  10  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      65  92  66  94  67 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  92  70  93  66 /  10  10  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 252050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SPAWNED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE DRIER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS RADIATE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. /13

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP
TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HUGE THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 89 TO 94
DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS STATES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRENDING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22

&&

.AVIATION [25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   73  91  75  92  74 /  10  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      75  90  76  91  76 /  10  10  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   66  93  67  93  65 /  10  05  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  93  65  94  68 /  10  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      65  92  66  94  67 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  92  70  93  66 /  10  10  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 252050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SPAWNED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE DRIER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS RADIATE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. /13

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP
TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HUGE THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 89 TO 94
DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS STATES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRENDING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22

&&

.AVIATION [25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   73  91  75  92  74 /  10  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      75  90  76  91  76 /  10  10  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   66  93  67  93  65 /  10  05  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  93  65  94  68 /  10  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      65  92  66  94  67 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  92  70  93  66 /  10  10  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 252050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SPAWNED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY THIS DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE DRIER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS RADIATE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. /13

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP
TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HUGE THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 89 TO 94
DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS STATES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRENDING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22

&&

.AVIATION [25.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   73  91  75  92  74 /  10  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      75  90  76  91  76 /  10  10  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   66  93  67  93  65 /  10  05  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  93  65  94  68 /  10  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      65  92  66  94  67 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  92  70  93  66 /  10  10  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 251951
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO OVER
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE EAST TO WEST MOVING COLD FRONT. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONTINUED DRY
EASTERLY FLOW IS THANKS TO THIS SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED AS FAR WEST
AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL OCCURRING CLOSE
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLOSER TO HOME...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS MUCH LOWER PW VALUES PUSH IN FROM THE
EAST. CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
GEORGIA.

THE DRY FORECAST THEME CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS
INDICATE THAT PW VALUES DROP BELOW 0.75 INCHES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. HOWEVER...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
BUT SHOULD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES.

MOISTURE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY BRINGS BACK MOISTURE WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE FEATURES. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 50
PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN
CONTROL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEATHER. SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN EASTERLY AROUND 7 KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  66  89  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  67  90  66  93  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      66  89  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      64  87  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        65  89  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 251951
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO OVER
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE EAST TO WEST MOVING COLD FRONT. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONTINUED DRY
EASTERLY FLOW IS THANKS TO THIS SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED AS FAR WEST
AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL OCCURRING CLOSE
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLOSER TO HOME...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS MUCH LOWER PW VALUES PUSH IN FROM THE
EAST. CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
GEORGIA.

THE DRY FORECAST THEME CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS
INDICATE THAT PW VALUES DROP BELOW 0.75 INCHES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. HOWEVER...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
BUT SHOULD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES.

MOISTURE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY BRINGS BACK MOISTURE WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE FEATURES. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 50
PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN
CONTROL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEATHER. SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN EASTERLY AROUND 7 KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  66  89  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  67  90  66  93  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      66  89  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      64  87  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        65  89  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 251951
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO OVER
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE EAST TO WEST MOVING COLD FRONT. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONTINUED DRY
EASTERLY FLOW IS THANKS TO THIS SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED AS FAR WEST
AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL OCCURRING CLOSE
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLOSER TO HOME...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS MUCH LOWER PW VALUES PUSH IN FROM THE
EAST. CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
GEORGIA.

THE DRY FORECAST THEME CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS
INDICATE THAT PW VALUES DROP BELOW 0.75 INCHES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. HOWEVER...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
BUT SHOULD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES.

MOISTURE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY BRINGS BACK MOISTURE WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE FEATURES. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 50
PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN
CONTROL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEATHER. SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN EASTERLY AROUND 7 KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  66  89  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  67  90  66  93  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      66  89  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      64  87  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        65  89  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 251951
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO OVER
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE EAST TO WEST MOVING COLD FRONT. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONTINUED DRY
EASTERLY FLOW IS THANKS TO THIS SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED AS FAR WEST
AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL OCCURRING CLOSE
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLOSER TO HOME...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS MUCH LOWER PW VALUES PUSH IN FROM THE
EAST. CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
GEORGIA.

THE DRY FORECAST THEME CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS
INDICATE THAT PW VALUES DROP BELOW 0.75 INCHES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. HOWEVER...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
BUT SHOULD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES.

MOISTURE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY BRINGS BACK MOISTURE WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE FEATURES. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 50
PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN
CONTROL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEATHER. SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN EASTERLY AROUND 7 KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  66  89  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  67  90  66  93  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      66  89  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      64  87  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        65  89  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 251830
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
130 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE HAS PUSHED
WESTWARD INTO MS. THIS FACT WILL MINIMIZE PRECIP CHCS THE REST OF
THIS AFTN, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL POP UP MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS WE ARE SEEING IN MIDDLE KY/TN. WE WILL REMOVE
POPS FROM THIS EVENING AS LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD BE THE DEMISE OF ANY
REMAINING SHRA. DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA ON E-SELY FLOW. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL/ERN GA. WE MAY SEE DEWPOINTS FALL TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S, WITH L60S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS PSBL.

FINE WX FOR LATE AUGUST IS AHEAD THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AS A RESULT OF THIS AIRMASS ADJUSTMENT. PW VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW AN INCH THRU THURSDAY BEFORE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO NAM/MET VALUES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH L90S RETURNING WEDNESDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
ABOUT AS IS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH A GROWING THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
GENERATING AN MCV THAT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL A BIT
INDETERMINABLE. NEVERTHELESS, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE A DEEPER COLUMN
OF S-SWLY FLOW FROM THE VERY WARM/MOIST GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL ALSO
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE UPPER TROP TROF IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL PUSH WEST INTO TX, OR BE LIFTED INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS TROF NEARS. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING AN EVEN
HIGHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CHC OF TSRA IS MINIMAL FOR KMSL VCNTY THIS AFTN. DRIER E-SELY
FLOW IS FORECAST.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  88  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        69  90  64  92 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      65  85  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  65  84  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   64  87  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    62  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251830
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
130 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE HAS PUSHED
WESTWARD INTO MS. THIS FACT WILL MINIMIZE PRECIP CHCS THE REST OF
THIS AFTN, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL POP UP MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS WE ARE SEEING IN MIDDLE KY/TN. WE WILL REMOVE
POPS FROM THIS EVENING AS LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD BE THE DEMISE OF ANY
REMAINING SHRA. DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA ON E-SELY FLOW. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL/ERN GA. WE MAY SEE DEWPOINTS FALL TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S, WITH L60S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS PSBL.

FINE WX FOR LATE AUGUST IS AHEAD THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AS A RESULT OF THIS AIRMASS ADJUSTMENT. PW VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW AN INCH THRU THURSDAY BEFORE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO NAM/MET VALUES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH L90S RETURNING WEDNESDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
ABOUT AS IS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH A GROWING THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
GENERATING AN MCV THAT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL A BIT
INDETERMINABLE. NEVERTHELESS, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE A DEEPER COLUMN
OF S-SWLY FLOW FROM THE VERY WARM/MOIST GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL ALSO
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE UPPER TROP TROF IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL PUSH WEST INTO TX, OR BE LIFTED INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS TROF NEARS. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING AN EVEN
HIGHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CHC OF TSRA IS MINIMAL FOR KMSL VCNTY THIS AFTN. DRIER E-SELY
FLOW IS FORECAST.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  88  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        69  90  64  92 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      65  85  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  65  84  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   64  87  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    62  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251830
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
130 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE HAS PUSHED
WESTWARD INTO MS. THIS FACT WILL MINIMIZE PRECIP CHCS THE REST OF
THIS AFTN, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL POP UP MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS WE ARE SEEING IN MIDDLE KY/TN. WE WILL REMOVE
POPS FROM THIS EVENING AS LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD BE THE DEMISE OF ANY
REMAINING SHRA. DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA ON E-SELY FLOW. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL/ERN GA. WE MAY SEE DEWPOINTS FALL TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S, WITH L60S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS PSBL.

FINE WX FOR LATE AUGUST IS AHEAD THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AS A RESULT OF THIS AIRMASS ADJUSTMENT. PW VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW AN INCH THRU THURSDAY BEFORE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO NAM/MET VALUES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH L90S RETURNING WEDNESDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
ABOUT AS IS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH A GROWING THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
GENERATING AN MCV THAT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL A BIT
INDETERMINABLE. NEVERTHELESS, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE A DEEPER COLUMN
OF S-SWLY FLOW FROM THE VERY WARM/MOIST GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL ALSO
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE UPPER TROP TROF IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL PUSH WEST INTO TX, OR BE LIFTED INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS TROF NEARS. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING AN EVEN
HIGHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CHC OF TSRA IS MINIMAL FOR KMSL VCNTY THIS AFTN. DRIER E-SELY
FLOW IS FORECAST.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  88  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        69  90  64  92 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      65  85  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  65  84  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   64  87  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    62  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251830
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
130 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE HAS PUSHED
WESTWARD INTO MS. THIS FACT WILL MINIMIZE PRECIP CHCS THE REST OF
THIS AFTN, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL POP UP MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS WE ARE SEEING IN MIDDLE KY/TN. WE WILL REMOVE
POPS FROM THIS EVENING AS LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD BE THE DEMISE OF ANY
REMAINING SHRA. DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA ON E-SELY FLOW. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL/ERN GA. WE MAY SEE DEWPOINTS FALL TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S, WITH L60S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS PSBL.

FINE WX FOR LATE AUGUST IS AHEAD THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AS A RESULT OF THIS AIRMASS ADJUSTMENT. PW VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW AN INCH THRU THURSDAY BEFORE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO NAM/MET VALUES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH L90S RETURNING WEDNESDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
ABOUT AS IS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH A GROWING THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
GENERATING AN MCV THAT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL A BIT
INDETERMINABLE. NEVERTHELESS, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE A DEEPER COLUMN
OF S-SWLY FLOW FROM THE VERY WARM/MOIST GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL ALSO
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE UPPER TROP TROF IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL PUSH WEST INTO TX, OR BE LIFTED INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS TROF NEARS. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING AN EVEN
HIGHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CHC OF TSRA IS MINIMAL FOR KMSL VCNTY THIS AFTN. DRIER E-SELY
FLOW IS FORECAST.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  88  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        69  90  64  92 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      65  85  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  65  84  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   64  87  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    62  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251736 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AVIATION (25.18Z ISSUANCE)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR
IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

&&

.UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE MASS OF
RAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TODAY AND TAKE
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WITH IT. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AT BEST OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS OUR
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AS A DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS CREATING A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE
STRONG WINDS AND SWELLS HAVE CAUSED THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO BE
INCREASED TO HIGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE ALL BEEN SENT AND THE NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE AN INVERTED TROF
NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA CONTINUES WESTWARD AND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION RESEMBLES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...A RATHER ODD THING
TO SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DRY DEEP LAYER AIR ADVANCING WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN MAINLY NEAR 305K AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF BEST
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING LIKELY POPS OVER PART OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. POPS OTHERWISE TAPER TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERNMOST PORTION TODAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING BUT
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS TODAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TONIGHT
EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. /29

THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE OVER A PORTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM THE
VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN EASTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE TUESDAY...BUT
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH...INCLUDING
MOST OF OUR CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
0.75 INCHES TO 1 INCH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO AROUND
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE STAYING
FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ANY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY...KEEPING A COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S. A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BOTH
DAYS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP TO
AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS STATES. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BACK TO AROUND
2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY
CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /21

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MARINE AREA EACH NIGHT THEN SUBSIDES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE
MOBILE BAY AREA AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND
THROUGH THE DAY WELL OFFSHORE.  A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  92  72  91 /  40  20  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  74  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      93  74  92  76  90 /  20  10  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  65  93  67  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  93  67  93  67  94 /  40  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      92  66  91  66  93 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 251736 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AVIATION (25.18Z ISSUANCE)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR
IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

&&

.UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE MASS OF
RAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TODAY AND TAKE
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WITH IT. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AT BEST OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS OUR
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AS A DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS CREATING A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE
STRONG WINDS AND SWELLS HAVE CAUSED THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO BE
INCREASED TO HIGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE ALL BEEN SENT AND THE NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE AN INVERTED TROF
NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA CONTINUES WESTWARD AND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION RESEMBLES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...A RATHER ODD THING
TO SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DRY DEEP LAYER AIR ADVANCING WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN MAINLY NEAR 305K AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF BEST
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING LIKELY POPS OVER PART OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. POPS OTHERWISE TAPER TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERNMOST PORTION TODAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING BUT
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS TODAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TONIGHT
EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. /29

THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE OVER A PORTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM THE
VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN EASTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE TUESDAY...BUT
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH...INCLUDING
MOST OF OUR CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
0.75 INCHES TO 1 INCH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO AROUND
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE STAYING
FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ANY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY...KEEPING A COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S. A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BOTH
DAYS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP TO
AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS STATES. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BACK TO AROUND
2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY
CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /21

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MARINE AREA EACH NIGHT THEN SUBSIDES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE
MOBILE BAY AREA AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND
THROUGH THE DAY WELL OFFSHORE.  A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  92  72  91 /  40  20  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  74  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      93  74  92  76  90 /  20  10  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  65  93  67  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  93  67  93  67  94 /  40  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      92  66  91  66  93 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 251736 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AVIATION (25.18Z ISSUANCE)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR
IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

&&

.UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE MASS OF
RAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TODAY AND TAKE
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WITH IT. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AT BEST OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS OUR
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AS A DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS CREATING A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE
STRONG WINDS AND SWELLS HAVE CAUSED THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO BE
INCREASED TO HIGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE ALL BEEN SENT AND THE NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE AN INVERTED TROF
NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA CONTINUES WESTWARD AND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION RESEMBLES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...A RATHER ODD THING
TO SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DRY DEEP LAYER AIR ADVANCING WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN MAINLY NEAR 305K AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF BEST
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING LIKELY POPS OVER PART OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. POPS OTHERWISE TAPER TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERNMOST PORTION TODAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING BUT
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS TODAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TONIGHT
EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. /29

THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE OVER A PORTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM THE
VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN EASTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE TUESDAY...BUT
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH...INCLUDING
MOST OF OUR CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
0.75 INCHES TO 1 INCH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO AROUND
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE STAYING
FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ANY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY...KEEPING A COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S. A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BOTH
DAYS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP TO
AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS STATES. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BACK TO AROUND
2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY
CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /21

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MARINE AREA EACH NIGHT THEN SUBSIDES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE
MOBILE BAY AREA AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND
THROUGH THE DAY WELL OFFSHORE.  A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  92  72  91 /  40  20  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  74  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      93  74  92  76  90 /  20  10  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  65  93  67  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  93  67  93  67  94 /  40  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      92  66  91  66  93 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 251736 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AVIATION (25.18Z ISSUANCE)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR MOB AND BFM SITES WHILE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NEAR PNS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR
IN AND AROUND SCT TSRA. A DRIER AIRMASS TAKES OVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /13

&&

.UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE MASS OF
RAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TODAY AND TAKE
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WITH IT. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AT BEST OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS OUR
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AS A DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS CREATING A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE
STRONG WINDS AND SWELLS HAVE CAUSED THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO BE
INCREASED TO HIGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE ALL BEEN SENT AND THE NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE AN INVERTED TROF
NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA CONTINUES WESTWARD AND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION RESEMBLES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...A RATHER ODD THING
TO SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DRY DEEP LAYER AIR ADVANCING WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN MAINLY NEAR 305K AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF BEST
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING LIKELY POPS OVER PART OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. POPS OTHERWISE TAPER TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERNMOST PORTION TODAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING BUT
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS TODAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TONIGHT
EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. /29

THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE OVER A PORTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM THE
VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN EASTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE TUESDAY...BUT
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH...INCLUDING
MOST OF OUR CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
0.75 INCHES TO 1 INCH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO AROUND
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE STAYING
FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ANY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY...KEEPING A COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S. A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BOTH
DAYS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP TO
AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS STATES. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BACK TO AROUND
2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY
CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /21

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MARINE AREA EACH NIGHT THEN SUBSIDES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE
MOBILE BAY AREA AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND
THROUGH THE DAY WELL OFFSHORE.  A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  92  72  91 /  40  20  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  74  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      93  74  92  76  90 /  20  10  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  65  93  67  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  93  67  93  67  94 /  40  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      92  66  91  66  93 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KHUN 251735 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1235 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1047 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN THE HEADLINE STORY FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS FARTHER TO OUR WEST TODAY. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE OBS THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS OVER CENTRAL KY/TN AND DOWN INTO AL WILL BE THE MECHANISM THAT
WILL PROVIDE OUR CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN AND DEVELOP THIS MORNING BUT AS DEWPOINTS LOWER LATER ON AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVE WEST...CLOUDS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE. ALSO ADJUSTED
WINDS FOR TODAY BY SLIGHTLY INCREASING THEM. LOCAL OBS HAD SPEEDS UP
TO 10KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS AND EVEN SLIGHT GUSTS IN A FEW SPOTS THIS
MORNING. WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL OR JUST BELOW IN THE LOWER 90S TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE HUN CWA. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS ON
TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CHC OF TSRA IS MINIMAL FOR KMSL VCNTY THIS AFTN. DRIER E-SELY
FLOW IS FORECAST.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251735 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1235 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1047 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN THE HEADLINE STORY FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS FARTHER TO OUR WEST TODAY. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE OBS THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS OVER CENTRAL KY/TN AND DOWN INTO AL WILL BE THE MECHANISM THAT
WILL PROVIDE OUR CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN AND DEVELOP THIS MORNING BUT AS DEWPOINTS LOWER LATER ON AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVE WEST...CLOUDS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE. ALSO ADJUSTED
WINDS FOR TODAY BY SLIGHTLY INCREASING THEM. LOCAL OBS HAD SPEEDS UP
TO 10KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS AND EVEN SLIGHT GUSTS IN A FEW SPOTS THIS
MORNING. WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL OR JUST BELOW IN THE LOWER 90S TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE HUN CWA. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS ON
TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CHC OF TSRA IS MINIMAL FOR KMSL VCNTY THIS AFTN. DRIER E-SELY
FLOW IS FORECAST.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 251733
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1233 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WHERE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORM. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA BOTH SUGGEST
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN ALABAMA...WITH THE MAX MOISTURE
INDICATED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA STATE LINE AREA. WILL
PUSH THE MAIN POP AREA WEST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AND NO MENTION NEAR THE GEORGIA STATE LINE.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
OBS...WHICH IS THE FIRST OCCURRENCE IN A WEEK OR SO. THEREFORE...LOWERED THE
OVERALL TEMP TREND AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN
CONTROL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEATHER. SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN EASTERLY AROUND 7 KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO BRING IN DRIER AND "LESS
HOT" AIR INTO THE STATE TODAY. THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. WITH STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW...AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE EAST...THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES TODAY WILL BE IN THE WEST. ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION EARLY
TONIGHT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

BEYOND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS FOR DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME
MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
LEVELS RATHER LOW. NOT UNTIL THE UPPER HIGH ROTATES AROUND TO A
POSITION TO OUR EAST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DO MOISTURE LEVELS
RETURN TO A POINT THAT WE CAN PUT RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST. IT SEEMS THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME SORT OF
SHORTWAVE OR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF AROUND THAT
TIME. IF THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WERE TO VERIFY...FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE RATHER WET. BUT GIVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
SLOWER HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...I`M NOT READY TO GET TOO OUT OF
HAND WITH POPS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE QUITE YET.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  89  64  91  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    66  88  66  91  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  90  69  92  69 /  10   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  70  92  69  93  68 /  10   0   0  10   0
CALERA      68  91  70  92  69 /   0   0   0  10   0
AUBURN      67  89  69  91  68 /   0   0   0  10   0
MONTGOMERY  69  92  70  94  68 /   0   0   0  10   0
TROY        68  91  69  93  67 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 251733
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1233 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WHERE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORM. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA BOTH SUGGEST
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN ALABAMA...WITH THE MAX MOISTURE
INDICATED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA STATE LINE AREA. WILL
PUSH THE MAIN POP AREA WEST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AND NO MENTION NEAR THE GEORGIA STATE LINE.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
OBS...WHICH IS THE FIRST OCCURRENCE IN A WEEK OR SO. THEREFORE...LOWERED THE
OVERALL TEMP TREND AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN
CONTROL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEATHER. SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN EASTERLY AROUND 7 KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO BRING IN DRIER AND "LESS
HOT" AIR INTO THE STATE TODAY. THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. WITH STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW...AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE EAST...THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES TODAY WILL BE IN THE WEST. ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION EARLY
TONIGHT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

BEYOND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS FOR DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME
MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
LEVELS RATHER LOW. NOT UNTIL THE UPPER HIGH ROTATES AROUND TO A
POSITION TO OUR EAST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DO MOISTURE LEVELS
RETURN TO A POINT THAT WE CAN PUT RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST. IT SEEMS THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME SORT OF
SHORTWAVE OR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF AROUND THAT
TIME. IF THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WERE TO VERIFY...FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE RATHER WET. BUT GIVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
SLOWER HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...I`M NOT READY TO GET TOO OUT OF
HAND WITH POPS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE QUITE YET.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  89  64  91  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    66  88  66  91  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  90  69  92  69 /  10   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  70  92  69  93  68 /  10   0   0  10   0
CALERA      68  91  70  92  69 /   0   0   0  10   0
AUBURN      67  89  69  91  68 /   0   0   0  10   0
MONTGOMERY  69  92  70  94  68 /   0   0   0  10   0
TROY        68  91  69  93  67 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 251733
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1233 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WHERE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORM. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA BOTH SUGGEST
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN ALABAMA...WITH THE MAX MOISTURE
INDICATED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA STATE LINE AREA. WILL
PUSH THE MAIN POP AREA WEST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AND NO MENTION NEAR THE GEORGIA STATE LINE.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
OBS...WHICH IS THE FIRST OCCURRENCE IN A WEEK OR SO. THEREFORE...LOWERED THE
OVERALL TEMP TREND AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN
CONTROL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEATHER. SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN EASTERLY AROUND 7 KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO BRING IN DRIER AND "LESS
HOT" AIR INTO THE STATE TODAY. THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. WITH STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW...AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE EAST...THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES TODAY WILL BE IN THE WEST. ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION EARLY
TONIGHT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

BEYOND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS FOR DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME
MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
LEVELS RATHER LOW. NOT UNTIL THE UPPER HIGH ROTATES AROUND TO A
POSITION TO OUR EAST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DO MOISTURE LEVELS
RETURN TO A POINT THAT WE CAN PUT RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST. IT SEEMS THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME SORT OF
SHORTWAVE OR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF AROUND THAT
TIME. IF THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WERE TO VERIFY...FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE RATHER WET. BUT GIVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
SLOWER HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...I`M NOT READY TO GET TOO OUT OF
HAND WITH POPS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE QUITE YET.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  89  64  91  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    66  88  66  91  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  90  69  92  69 /  10   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  70  92  69  93  68 /  10   0   0  10   0
CALERA      68  91  70  92  69 /   0   0   0  10   0
AUBURN      67  89  69  91  68 /   0   0   0  10   0
MONTGOMERY  69  92  70  94  68 /   0   0   0  10   0
TROY        68  91  69  93  67 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 251733
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1233 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WHERE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORM. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA BOTH SUGGEST
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN ALABAMA...WITH THE MAX MOISTURE
INDICATED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA STATE LINE AREA. WILL
PUSH THE MAIN POP AREA WEST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AND NO MENTION NEAR THE GEORGIA STATE LINE.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
OBS...WHICH IS THE FIRST OCCURRENCE IN A WEEK OR SO. THEREFORE...LOWERED THE
OVERALL TEMP TREND AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN
CONTROL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEATHER. SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN EASTERLY AROUND 7 KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO BRING IN DRIER AND "LESS
HOT" AIR INTO THE STATE TODAY. THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. WITH STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW...AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE EAST...THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES TODAY WILL BE IN THE WEST. ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION EARLY
TONIGHT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

BEYOND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS FOR DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME
MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
LEVELS RATHER LOW. NOT UNTIL THE UPPER HIGH ROTATES AROUND TO A
POSITION TO OUR EAST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DO MOISTURE LEVELS
RETURN TO A POINT THAT WE CAN PUT RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST. IT SEEMS THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME SORT OF
SHORTWAVE OR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF AROUND THAT
TIME. IF THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WERE TO VERIFY...FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE RATHER WET. BUT GIVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
SLOWER HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...I`M NOT READY TO GET TOO OUT OF
HAND WITH POPS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE QUITE YET.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  89  64  91  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    66  88  66  91  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  90  69  92  69 /  10   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  70  92  69  93  68 /  10   0   0  10   0
CALERA      68  91  70  92  69 /   0   0   0  10   0
AUBURN      67  89  69  91  68 /   0   0   0  10   0
MONTGOMERY  69  92  70  94  68 /   0   0   0  10   0
TROY        68  91  69  93  67 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 251622
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1122 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WHERE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORM. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA BOTH SUGGEST
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN ALABAMA...WITH THE MAX MOISTURE
INDICATED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA STATE LINE AREA. WILL
PUSH THE MAIN POP AREA WEST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AND NO MENTION NEAR THE GEORGIA STATE LINE.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
OBS...WHICH IS THE FIRST OCCURRENCE IN A WEEK OR SO. THEREFORE...LOWERED THE
OVERALL TEMP TREND AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING IN
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING FOR MOST AREAS BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
ACTIVITY NEAR KTCL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO BRING IN DRIER AND "LESS
HOT" AIR INTO THE STATE TODAY. THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. WITH STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW...AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE EAST...THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES TODAY WILL BE IN THE WEST. ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION EARLY
TONIGHT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

BEYOND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS FOR DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME
MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
LEVELS RATHER LOW. NOT UNTIL THE UPPER HIGH ROTATES AROUND TO A
POSITION TO OUR EAST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DO MOISTURE LEVELS
RETURN TO A POINT THAT WE CAN PUT RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST. IT SEEMS THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME SORT OF
SHORTWAVE OR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF AROUND THAT
TIME. IF THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WERE TO VERIFY...FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE RATHER WET. BUT GIVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
SLOWER HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...I`M NOT READY TO GET TOO OUT OF
HAND WITH POPS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE QUITE YET.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  65  89  64  91 /  20   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    88  66  88  66  91 /  20   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  90  69  90  69  92 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  70  92  69  93 /  30  10   0   0  10
CALERA      89  68  91  70  92 /  20   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  67  89  69  91 /  10   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  91  69  92  70  94 /  20   0   0   0  10
TROY        89  68  91  69  93 /  20   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 251618 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1118 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE MASS OF
RAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TODAY AND TAKE
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WITH IT. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AT BEST OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS OUR
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AS A DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS CREATING A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE
STRONG WINDS AND SWELLS HAVE CAUSED THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO BE
INCREASED TO HIGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE ALL BEEN SENT AND THE NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE AN INVERTED TROF
NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA CONTINUES WESTWARD AND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION RESEMBLES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...A RATHER ODD THING
TO SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DRY DEEP LAYER AIR ADVANCING WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN MAINLY NEAR 305K AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF BEST
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING LIKELY POPS OVER PART OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. POPS OTHERWISE TAPER TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERNMOST PORTION TODAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING BUT
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS TODAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TONIGHT
EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. /29

THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE OVER A PORTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM THE
VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN EASTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE TUESDAY...BUT
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH...INCLUDING
MOST OF OUR CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
0.75 INCHES TO 1 INCH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO AROUND
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE STAYING
FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ANY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY...KEEPING A COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S. A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BOTH
DAYS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP TO
AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS STATES. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BACK TO AROUND
2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY
CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /21

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESSER CHANCES EASTWARD. WILL HAVE A
TEMPO GROUP AT MOB/BFM THIS AFTERNOON FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION DECREASES QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED...BECOMING LIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. /29

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MARINE AREA EACH NIGHT THEN SUBSIDES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE
MOBILE BAY AREA AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND
THROUGH THE DAY WELL OFFSHORE.  A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  92  72  91 /  40  20  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  74  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      93  74  92  76  90 /  20  10  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  65  93  67  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  93  67  93  67  94 /  40  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      92  66  91  66  93 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 251618 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1118 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE MASS OF
RAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TODAY AND TAKE
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WITH IT. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AT BEST OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS OUR
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AS A DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS CREATING A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE
STRONG WINDS AND SWELLS HAVE CAUSED THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO BE
INCREASED TO HIGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE ALL BEEN SENT AND THE NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE AN INVERTED TROF
NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA CONTINUES WESTWARD AND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION RESEMBLES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...A RATHER ODD THING
TO SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DRY DEEP LAYER AIR ADVANCING WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN MAINLY NEAR 305K AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF BEST
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING LIKELY POPS OVER PART OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. POPS OTHERWISE TAPER TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERNMOST PORTION TODAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING BUT
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS TODAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TONIGHT
EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. /29

THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE OVER A PORTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM THE
VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN EASTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE TUESDAY...BUT
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH...INCLUDING
MOST OF OUR CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
0.75 INCHES TO 1 INCH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO AROUND
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE STAYING
FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ANY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY...KEEPING A COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S. A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BOTH
DAYS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP TO
AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS STATES. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BACK TO AROUND
2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY
CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /21

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESSER CHANCES EASTWARD. WILL HAVE A
TEMPO GROUP AT MOB/BFM THIS AFTERNOON FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION DECREASES QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED...BECOMING LIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. /29

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MARINE AREA EACH NIGHT THEN SUBSIDES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE
MOBILE BAY AREA AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND
THROUGH THE DAY WELL OFFSHORE.  A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  92  72  91 /  40  20  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  74  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      93  74  92  76  90 /  20  10  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  65  93  67  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  93  67  93  67  94 /  40  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      92  66  91  66  93 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 251618 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1118 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE MASS OF
RAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TODAY AND TAKE
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WITH IT. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AT BEST OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS OUR
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AS A DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS CREATING A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE
STRONG WINDS AND SWELLS HAVE CAUSED THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO BE
INCREASED TO HIGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE ALL BEEN SENT AND THE NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE AN INVERTED TROF
NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA CONTINUES WESTWARD AND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION RESEMBLES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...A RATHER ODD THING
TO SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DRY DEEP LAYER AIR ADVANCING WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN MAINLY NEAR 305K AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF BEST
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING LIKELY POPS OVER PART OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. POPS OTHERWISE TAPER TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERNMOST PORTION TODAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING BUT
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS TODAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TONIGHT
EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. /29

THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE OVER A PORTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM THE
VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN EASTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE TUESDAY...BUT
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH...INCLUDING
MOST OF OUR CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
0.75 INCHES TO 1 INCH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO AROUND
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE STAYING
FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ANY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY...KEEPING A COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S. A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BOTH
DAYS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP TO
AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS STATES. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BACK TO AROUND
2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY
CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /21

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESSER CHANCES EASTWARD. WILL HAVE A
TEMPO GROUP AT MOB/BFM THIS AFTERNOON FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION DECREASES QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED...BECOMING LIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. /29

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MARINE AREA EACH NIGHT THEN SUBSIDES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE
MOBILE BAY AREA AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND
THROUGH THE DAY WELL OFFSHORE.  A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  92  72  91 /  40  20  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  74  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      93  74  92  76  90 /  20  10  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  65  93  67  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  93  67  93  67  94 /  40  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      92  66  91  66  93 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 251618 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1118 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE MASS OF
RAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TODAY AND TAKE
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WITH IT. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AT BEST OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS OUR
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AS A DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS CREATING A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE
STRONG WINDS AND SWELLS HAVE CAUSED THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO BE
INCREASED TO HIGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE ALL BEEN SENT AND THE NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE AN INVERTED TROF
NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA CONTINUES WESTWARD AND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION RESEMBLES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...A RATHER ODD THING
TO SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DRY DEEP LAYER AIR ADVANCING WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN MAINLY NEAR 305K AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF BEST
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING LIKELY POPS OVER PART OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. POPS OTHERWISE TAPER TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERNMOST PORTION TODAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING BUT
OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS TODAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TONIGHT
EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. /29

THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE OVER A PORTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM THE
VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN EASTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE TUESDAY...BUT
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH...INCLUDING
MOST OF OUR CWFA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
0.75 INCHES TO 1 INCH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO AROUND
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE STAYING
FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ANY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY...KEEPING A COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S. A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST AL AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BOTH
DAYS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POSSIBLY TRENDING BACK UP TO
AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS STATES. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BACK TO AROUND
2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO STAY
CONSISTENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /21

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESSER CHANCES EASTWARD. WILL HAVE A
TEMPO GROUP AT MOB/BFM THIS AFTERNOON FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION DECREASES QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED...BECOMING LIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. /29

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MARINE AREA EACH NIGHT THEN SUBSIDES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE
MOBILE BAY AREA AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND
THROUGH THE DAY WELL OFFSHORE.  A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  92  72  91 /  40  20  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   92  74  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      93  74  92  76  90 /  20  10  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  65  93  67  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  93  67  93  67  94 /  40  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      92  66  91  66  93 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   92  68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 251547 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1047 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN THE HEADLINE STORY FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS FARTHER TO OUR WEST TODAY. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE OBS THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS OVER CENTRAL KY/TN AND DOWN INTO AL WILL BE THE MECHANISM THAT
WILL PROVIDE OUR CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN AND DEVELOP THIS MORNING BUT AS DEWPOINTS LOWER LATER ON AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVE WEST...CLOUDS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE. ALSO ADJUSTED
WINDS FOR TODAY BY SLIGHTLY INCREASING THEM. LOCAL OBS HAD SPEEDS UP
TO 10KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS AND EVEN SLIGHT GUSTS IN A FEW SPOTS THIS
MORNING. WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL OR JUST BELOW IN THE LOWER 90S TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE HUN CWA. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS ON
TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE E HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HRS...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 251547 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1047 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN THE HEADLINE STORY FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS FARTHER TO OUR WEST TODAY. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE OBS THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS OVER CENTRAL KY/TN AND DOWN INTO AL WILL BE THE MECHANISM THAT
WILL PROVIDE OUR CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN AND DEVELOP THIS MORNING BUT AS DEWPOINTS LOWER LATER ON AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVE WEST...CLOUDS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE. ALSO ADJUSTED
WINDS FOR TODAY BY SLIGHTLY INCREASING THEM. LOCAL OBS HAD SPEEDS UP
TO 10KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS AND EVEN SLIGHT GUSTS IN A FEW SPOTS THIS
MORNING. WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL OR JUST BELOW IN THE LOWER 90S TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE HUN CWA. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS ON
TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE E HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HRS...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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