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000
FXUS64 KHUN 210520 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 845 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS EVENING...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DID FIRE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION HAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART HAS FADED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A LONE SHOWER HAS
DEVELOPED EAST OF NASHVILLE TOWARDS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...IN
PART ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
EXTENDED ROUGHLY IN A NNE- SSW MANNER FROM WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT THIS AREA
AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN FORECAST PARAMETERS OVERALL WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME OF THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT...CLOUD COVER GRIDS...WHICH WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT WITH THE ON-GOING FORECAST WORDING.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
PATCHY MVFR MIST/FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT THE TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS DURING THE NIGHT
WILL BECOME WEST AROUND 10KT A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THEM AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210520 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 845 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS EVENING...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DID FIRE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION HAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART HAS FADED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A LONE SHOWER HAS
DEVELOPED EAST OF NASHVILLE TOWARDS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...IN
PART ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
EXTENDED ROUGHLY IN A NNE- SSW MANNER FROM WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT THIS AREA
AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN FORECAST PARAMETERS OVERALL WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME OF THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT...CLOUD COVER GRIDS...WHICH WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT WITH THE ON-GOING FORECAST WORDING.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
PATCHY MVFR MIST/FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT THE TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS DURING THE NIGHT
WILL BECOME WEST AROUND 10KT A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THEM AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210520 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 845 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS EVENING...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DID FIRE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION HAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART HAS FADED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A LONE SHOWER HAS
DEVELOPED EAST OF NASHVILLE TOWARDS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...IN
PART ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
EXTENDED ROUGHLY IN A NNE- SSW MANNER FROM WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT THIS AREA
AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN FORECAST PARAMETERS OVERALL WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME OF THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT...CLOUD COVER GRIDS...WHICH WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT WITH THE ON-GOING FORECAST WORDING.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
PATCHY MVFR MIST/FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT THE TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS DURING THE NIGHT
WILL BECOME WEST AROUND 10KT A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THEM AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210520 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 845 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS EVENING...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DID FIRE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION HAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART HAS FADED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A LONE SHOWER HAS
DEVELOPED EAST OF NASHVILLE TOWARDS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...IN
PART ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
EXTENDED ROUGHLY IN A NNE- SSW MANNER FROM WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT THIS AREA
AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN FORECAST PARAMETERS OVERALL WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME OF THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT...CLOUD COVER GRIDS...WHICH WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT WITH THE ON-GOING FORECAST WORDING.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
PATCHY MVFR MIST/FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT THE TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS DURING THE NIGHT
WILL BECOME WEST AROUND 10KT A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THEM AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 210501 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1201 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION [20.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY MVFR
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN TYPICAL LOWER LYING AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE LOCAL TAFS.
CALM TO LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT BECOMES SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS NEAR
THE COAST SUNDAY. /21


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION  [21.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR TONIGHT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW...BUT A FEW PATCHES OF
MVFR FOG MAY OCCUR IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /21

MARINE UPDATE...AREA MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WE HAVE LET
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT...AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST....THE FA REMAINS UNDER DRY...COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED. WITH THE LAST
BOUNDARY TO MOVE OVER THE FA STILL HANGING AROUND SOUTH OF THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA...ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH
THE FAR OFFSHORE ZONES OF THE FA...BUT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY...THE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES NORTHEAST...WHILST
MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE LAST WEEK. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
EASES...BUT WITH A DRIER THAN SEASONAL AIRMASS OVER THE FA. WITH THE
DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA...TEMPS HIGHER THAN SEASONAL
EXPECTED. SEE NO INDICATION OF A BACK-DOOR SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORN. /16

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE
TROF AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE SYSTEM.  A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROF WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MORNING.  THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  A LARGE AND
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING STRENGTHENING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  UPPER RIDGING MEANWHILE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS LEFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROF.  WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AS LAYER LIFTING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTS
IN ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID FIFTIES.  SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CUT OFF OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES THEN WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROF BY SATURDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  WHILE THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION...AN INVERTED TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF CLOSE TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW.  EITHER WAY...WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/29

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...STRATUS DECK PUSHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA CONTINUES TO MIX OUT...WITH BASES IN THE MVFR RANGE. AM
EXPECTING THESE TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS... WITH LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG
DROPPING VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. /16

MARINE...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY UNTIL A FRONT GETS PUSHED ACROSS THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPORARY
RISES IN SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY FROM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS TO
NORTHEASTERLY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MAINLY UNPROTECTED WATERS SETTING BACK UP TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  90  64 /  05  05  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   69  87  71  90  67 /  05  05  05  20  10
DESTIN      72  85  73  88  70 /  05  05  05  20  10
EVERGREEN   64  91  65  89  57 /  00  05  10  20  05
WAYNESBORO  62  91  65  88  56 /  00  05  10  20  05
CAMDEN      63  91  66  89  55 /  00  05  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   65  89  65  90  62 /  05  05  05  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 210501 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1201 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION [20.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY MVFR
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN TYPICAL LOWER LYING AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE LOCAL TAFS.
CALM TO LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT BECOMES SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS NEAR
THE COAST SUNDAY. /21


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION  [21.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR TONIGHT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW...BUT A FEW PATCHES OF
MVFR FOG MAY OCCUR IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /21

MARINE UPDATE...AREA MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WE HAVE LET
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT...AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST....THE FA REMAINS UNDER DRY...COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED. WITH THE LAST
BOUNDARY TO MOVE OVER THE FA STILL HANGING AROUND SOUTH OF THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA...ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH
THE FAR OFFSHORE ZONES OF THE FA...BUT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY...THE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES NORTHEAST...WHILST
MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE LAST WEEK. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
EASES...BUT WITH A DRIER THAN SEASONAL AIRMASS OVER THE FA. WITH THE
DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA...TEMPS HIGHER THAN SEASONAL
EXPECTED. SEE NO INDICATION OF A BACK-DOOR SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORN. /16

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE
TROF AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE SYSTEM.  A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROF WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MORNING.  THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  A LARGE AND
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING STRENGTHENING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  UPPER RIDGING MEANWHILE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS LEFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROF.  WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AS LAYER LIFTING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTS
IN ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID FIFTIES.  SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CUT OFF OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES THEN WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROF BY SATURDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  WHILE THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION...AN INVERTED TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF CLOSE TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW.  EITHER WAY...WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/29

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...STRATUS DECK PUSHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA CONTINUES TO MIX OUT...WITH BASES IN THE MVFR RANGE. AM
EXPECTING THESE TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS... WITH LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG
DROPPING VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. /16

MARINE...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY UNTIL A FRONT GETS PUSHED ACROSS THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPORARY
RISES IN SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY FROM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS TO
NORTHEASTERLY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MAINLY UNPROTECTED WATERS SETTING BACK UP TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  90  64 /  05  05  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   69  87  71  90  67 /  05  05  05  20  10
DESTIN      72  85  73  88  70 /  05  05  05  20  10
EVERGREEN   64  91  65  89  57 /  00  05  10  20  05
WAYNESBORO  62  91  65  88  56 /  00  05  10  20  05
CAMDEN      63  91  66  89  55 /  00  05  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   65  89  65  90  62 /  05  05  05  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 210438
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1138 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM SURFACE THROUGH 10K FEET. AIR MASS IS MUCH
DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN LAST NIGHT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE A RETURN
OF LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY WEATHER ELEMENTS...BUT NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT
UNLIKELY WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  86  59  79  54 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    63  86  62  79  55 /   0  10  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  64  88  62  80  56 /   0  10  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  65  90  63  83  56 /   0  10  20  20   0
CALERA      64  88  63  82  57 /   0  10  20  20   0
AUBURN      64  88  66  84  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  87  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
TROY        65  89  65  87  60 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210438
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1138 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM SURFACE THROUGH 10K FEET. AIR MASS IS MUCH
DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN LAST NIGHT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE A RETURN
OF LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY WEATHER ELEMENTS...BUT NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT
UNLIKELY WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  86  59  79  54 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    63  86  62  79  55 /   0  10  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  64  88  62  80  56 /   0  10  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  65  90  63  83  56 /   0  10  20  20   0
CALERA      64  88  63  82  57 /   0  10  20  20   0
AUBURN      64  88  66  84  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  87  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
TROY        65  89  65  87  60 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 210201
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
901 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM SURFACE THROUGH 10K FEET. AIR MASS IS MUCH
DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN LAST NIGHT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE A RETURN
OF LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY WEATHER ELEMENTS...BUT NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT
UNLIKELY WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

56/GDG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A TROUBLE MAKER AS THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF IN THE EAST. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY LOOKING AT A FEW
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

A FAIRLY DRY COLD...BUT POTENT...FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH AS
EARLY AS 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM 7PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING LOSS...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE TOTALLY BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTH AS THE MODELS SEEM TO UNDERDONE IN THE RAIN CHANCES ALONG
THE FRONT. WITH THE POTENCY OF THE FRONT...IT SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA MUCH QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND ALLOW FOR A
POTENTIAL COOL DOWN FOR MIDWEEK.

A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  86  59  79  54 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    63  86  62  79  55 /   0  10  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  64  88  62  80  56 /   0  10  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  65  90  63  83  56 /   0  10  20  20   0
CALERA      64  88  63  82  57 /   0  10  20  20   0
AUBURN      64  88  66  84  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  87  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
TROY        65  89  65  87  60 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 210201
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
901 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM SURFACE THROUGH 10K FEET. AIR MASS IS MUCH
DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN LAST NIGHT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE A RETURN
OF LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY WEATHER ELEMENTS...BUT NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT
UNLIKELY WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

56/GDG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A TROUBLE MAKER AS THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF IN THE EAST. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY LOOKING AT A FEW
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

A FAIRLY DRY COLD...BUT POTENT...FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH AS
EARLY AS 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM 7PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING LOSS...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE TOTALLY BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTH AS THE MODELS SEEM TO UNDERDONE IN THE RAIN CHANCES ALONG
THE FRONT. WITH THE POTENCY OF THE FRONT...IT SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA MUCH QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND ALLOW FOR A
POTENTIAL COOL DOWN FOR MIDWEEK.

A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  86  59  79  54 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    63  86  62  79  55 /   0  10  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  64  88  62  80  56 /   0  10  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  65  90  63  83  56 /   0  10  20  20   0
CALERA      64  88  63  82  57 /   0  10  20  20   0
AUBURN      64  88  66  84  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  87  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
TROY        65  89  65  87  60 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 210145 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
845 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS...DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS EVENING...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DID FIRE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION HAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART HAS FADED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A LONE SHOWER HAS
DEVELOPED EAST OF NASHVILLE TOWARDS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...IN
PART ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
EXTENDED ROUGHLY IN A NNE- SSW MANNER FROM WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT THIS AREA
AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN FORECAST PARAMETERS OVERALL WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME OF THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT...CLOUD COVER GRIDS...WHICH WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT WITH THE ON-GOING FORECAST WORDING.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 638 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
NIGHT. WITH LONGER NIGHTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...THERE
IS A RISK OF MVFR FOG/MIST AFFECTING THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUN AM. CLOUDS OTHERWISE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NW-SE DURING
SUN...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS
ISSUANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWER TIMING/PLACEMENT.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 209 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE A
SCT CU FIELD WAS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY ARND 60. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT WX MAKER IS A CDFNT NOW EXTENDING FROM NW KS THRU IA AND
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS CDFNT WILL BRING A CHC OF SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SINCE LOW
LEVEL FLOW/8H WINDS WILL BE NORTH...PCPN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. THE BEST TIMING OF PCPN WILL ARND 20Z TO
03Z. NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HVY RAIN. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP DRY AS THE CDFNT
PUSHES OUT OF THE TN VALLEY.

MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR FALL LIKE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MRNG LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S. SINCE GOING WITH ECMWF WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
HOWEVER GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MRNG.

WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA ON SATURDAY...SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PCPN
ON SATURDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE TO BE MOVED BACK TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF PANS OUT.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 210145 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
845 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS...DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS EVENING...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DID FIRE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION HAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART HAS FADED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A LONE SHOWER HAS
DEVELOPED EAST OF NASHVILLE TOWARDS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...IN
PART ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
EXTENDED ROUGHLY IN A NNE- SSW MANNER FROM WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT THIS AREA
AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN FORECAST PARAMETERS OVERALL WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME OF THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT...CLOUD COVER GRIDS...WHICH WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT WITH THE ON-GOING FORECAST WORDING.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 638 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
NIGHT. WITH LONGER NIGHTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...THERE
IS A RISK OF MVFR FOG/MIST AFFECTING THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUN AM. CLOUDS OTHERWISE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NW-SE DURING
SUN...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS
ISSUANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWER TIMING/PLACEMENT.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 209 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE A
SCT CU FIELD WAS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY ARND 60. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT WX MAKER IS A CDFNT NOW EXTENDING FROM NW KS THRU IA AND
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS CDFNT WILL BRING A CHC OF SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SINCE LOW
LEVEL FLOW/8H WINDS WILL BE NORTH...PCPN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. THE BEST TIMING OF PCPN WILL ARND 20Z TO
03Z. NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HVY RAIN. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP DRY AS THE CDFNT
PUSHES OUT OF THE TN VALLEY.

MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR FALL LIKE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MRNG LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S. SINCE GOING WITH ECMWF WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
HOWEVER GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MRNG.

WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA ON SATURDAY...SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PCPN
ON SATURDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE TO BE MOVED BACK TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF PANS OUT.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 210008 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
708 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION  [21.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR TONIGHT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW...BUT A FEW PATCHES OF
MVFR FOG MAY OCCUR IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...AREA MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WE HAVE LET
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT...AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST....THE FA REMAINS UNDER DRY...COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED. WITH THE LAST
BOUNDARY TO MOVE OVER THE FA STILL HANGING AROUND SOUTH OF THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA...ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH
THE FAR OFFSHORE ZONES OF THE FA...BUT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY...THE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES NORTHEAST...WHILST
MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE LAST WEEK. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
EASES...BUT WITH A DRIER THAN SEASONAL AIRMASS OVER THE FA. WITH THE
DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA...TEMPS HIGHER THAN SEASONAL
EXPECTED. SEE NO INDICATION OF A BACK-DOOR SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORN. /16

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE
TROF AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE SYSTEM.  A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROF WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MORNING.  THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  A LARGE AND
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING STRENGTHENING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  UPPER RIDGING MEANWHILE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS LEFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROF.  WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AS LAYER LIFTING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTS
IN ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID FIFTIES.  SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CUT OFF OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES THEN WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROF BY SATURDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  WHILE THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION...AN INVERTED TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF CLOSE TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW.  EITHER WAY...WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/29

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...STRATUS DECK PUSHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA CONTINUES TO MIX OUT...WITH BASES IN THE MVFR RANGE. AM
EXPECTING THESE TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS... WITH LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG
DROPPING VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. /16

MARINE...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY UNTIL A FRONT GETS PUSHED ACROSS THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPORARY
RISES IN SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY FROM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS TO
NORTHEASTERLY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MAINLY UNPROTECTED WATERS SETTING BACK UP TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  90  64 /  05  05  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   69  87  71  90  67 /  05  05  05  20  10
DESTIN      72  85  73  88  70 /  05  05  05  20  10
EVERGREEN   64  91  65  89  57 /  00  05  10  20  05
WAYNESBORO  62  91  65  88  56 /  00  05  10  20  05
CAMDEN      63  91  66  89  55 /  00  05  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   65  89  65  90  62 /  05  05  05  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 210008 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
708 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION  [21.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR TONIGHT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW...BUT A FEW PATCHES OF
MVFR FOG MAY OCCUR IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...AREA MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WE HAVE LET
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT...AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST....THE FA REMAINS UNDER DRY...COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED. WITH THE LAST
BOUNDARY TO MOVE OVER THE FA STILL HANGING AROUND SOUTH OF THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA...ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH
THE FAR OFFSHORE ZONES OF THE FA...BUT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY...THE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES NORTHEAST...WHILST
MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE LAST WEEK. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
EASES...BUT WITH A DRIER THAN SEASONAL AIRMASS OVER THE FA. WITH THE
DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA...TEMPS HIGHER THAN SEASONAL
EXPECTED. SEE NO INDICATION OF A BACK-DOOR SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORN. /16

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE
TROF AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE SYSTEM.  A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROF WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MORNING.  THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  A LARGE AND
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING STRENGTHENING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  UPPER RIDGING MEANWHILE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS LEFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROF.  WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AS LAYER LIFTING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTS
IN ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID FIFTIES.  SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CUT OFF OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES THEN WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROF BY SATURDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  WHILE THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION...AN INVERTED TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF CLOSE TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW.  EITHER WAY...WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/29

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...STRATUS DECK PUSHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA CONTINUES TO MIX OUT...WITH BASES IN THE MVFR RANGE. AM
EXPECTING THESE TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS... WITH LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG
DROPPING VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. /16

MARINE...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY UNTIL A FRONT GETS PUSHED ACROSS THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPORARY
RISES IN SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY FROM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS TO
NORTHEASTERLY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MAINLY UNPROTECTED WATERS SETTING BACK UP TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  90  64 /  05  05  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   69  87  71  90  67 /  05  05  05  20  10
DESTIN      72  85  73  88  70 /  05  05  05  20  10
EVERGREEN   64  91  65  89  57 /  00  05  10  20  05
WAYNESBORO  62  91  65  88  56 /  00  05  10  20  05
CAMDEN      63  91  66  89  55 /  00  05  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   65  89  65  90  62 /  05  05  05  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 210008 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
708 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION  [21.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR TONIGHT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW...BUT A FEW PATCHES OF
MVFR FOG MAY OCCUR IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...AREA MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WE HAVE LET
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT...AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST....THE FA REMAINS UNDER DRY...COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED. WITH THE LAST
BOUNDARY TO MOVE OVER THE FA STILL HANGING AROUND SOUTH OF THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA...ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH
THE FAR OFFSHORE ZONES OF THE FA...BUT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY...THE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES NORTHEAST...WHILST
MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE LAST WEEK. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
EASES...BUT WITH A DRIER THAN SEASONAL AIRMASS OVER THE FA. WITH THE
DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA...TEMPS HIGHER THAN SEASONAL
EXPECTED. SEE NO INDICATION OF A BACK-DOOR SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORN. /16

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE
TROF AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE SYSTEM.  A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROF WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MORNING.  THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  A LARGE AND
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING STRENGTHENING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  UPPER RIDGING MEANWHILE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS LEFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROF.  WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AS LAYER LIFTING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTS
IN ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID FIFTIES.  SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CUT OFF OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES THEN WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROF BY SATURDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  WHILE THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION...AN INVERTED TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF CLOSE TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW.  EITHER WAY...WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/29

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...STRATUS DECK PUSHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA CONTINUES TO MIX OUT...WITH BASES IN THE MVFR RANGE. AM
EXPECTING THESE TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS... WITH LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG
DROPPING VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. /16

MARINE...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY UNTIL A FRONT GETS PUSHED ACROSS THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPORARY
RISES IN SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY FROM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS TO
NORTHEASTERLY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MAINLY UNPROTECTED WATERS SETTING BACK UP TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  90  64 /  05  05  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   69  87  71  90  67 /  05  05  05  20  10
DESTIN      72  85  73  88  70 /  05  05  05  20  10
EVERGREEN   64  91  65  89  57 /  00  05  10  20  05
WAYNESBORO  62  91  65  88  56 /  00  05  10  20  05
CAMDEN      63  91  66  89  55 /  00  05  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   65  89  65  90  62 /  05  05  05  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 210008 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
708 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION  [21.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR TONIGHT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW...BUT A FEW PATCHES OF
MVFR FOG MAY OCCUR IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...AREA MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WE HAVE LET
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT...AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST....THE FA REMAINS UNDER DRY...COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED. WITH THE LAST
BOUNDARY TO MOVE OVER THE FA STILL HANGING AROUND SOUTH OF THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA...ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH
THE FAR OFFSHORE ZONES OF THE FA...BUT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY...THE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES NORTHEAST...WHILST
MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE LAST WEEK. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
EASES...BUT WITH A DRIER THAN SEASONAL AIRMASS OVER THE FA. WITH THE
DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA...TEMPS HIGHER THAN SEASONAL
EXPECTED. SEE NO INDICATION OF A BACK-DOOR SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORN. /16

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE
TROF AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE SYSTEM.  A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROF WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MORNING.  THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  A LARGE AND
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING STRENGTHENING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  UPPER RIDGING MEANWHILE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS LEFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROF.  WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AS LAYER LIFTING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTS
IN ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID FIFTIES.  SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CUT OFF OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES THEN WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROF BY SATURDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  WHILE THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION...AN INVERTED TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF CLOSE TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW.  EITHER WAY...WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/29

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...STRATUS DECK PUSHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA CONTINUES TO MIX OUT...WITH BASES IN THE MVFR RANGE. AM
EXPECTING THESE TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS... WITH LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG
DROPPING VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. /16

MARINE...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY UNTIL A FRONT GETS PUSHED ACROSS THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPORARY
RISES IN SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY FROM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS TO
NORTHEASTERLY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MAINLY UNPROTECTED WATERS SETTING BACK UP TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  90  64 /  05  05  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   69  87  71  90  67 /  05  05  05  20  10
DESTIN      72  85  73  88  70 /  05  05  05  20  10
EVERGREEN   64  91  65  89  57 /  00  05  10  20  05
WAYNESBORO  62  91  65  88  56 /  00  05  10  20  05
CAMDEN      63  91  66  89  55 /  00  05  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   65  89  65  90  62 /  05  05  05  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 202352
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
652 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A TROUBLE MAKER AS THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF IN THE EAST. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY LOOKING AT A FEW
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

A FAIRLY DRY COLD...BUT POTENT...FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH AS
EARLY AS 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM 7PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING LOSS...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE TOTALLY BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTH AS THE MODELS SEEM TO UNDERDONE IN THE RAIN CHANCES ALONG
THE FRONT. WITH THE POTENCY OF THE FRONT...IT SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA MUCH QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND ALLOW FOR A
POTENTIAL COOL DOWN FOR MIDWEEK.

A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT
UNLIKELY WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  86  59  79  54 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    63  86  62  79  55 /   0  10  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  64  88  62  80  56 /   0  10  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  65  90  63  83  56 /   0  10  20  20   0
CALERA      64  88  63  82  57 /   0  10  20  20   0
AUBURN      64  88  66  84  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  87  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
TROY        65  89  65  87  60 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 202352
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
652 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A TROUBLE MAKER AS THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF IN THE EAST. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY LOOKING AT A FEW
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

A FAIRLY DRY COLD...BUT POTENT...FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH AS
EARLY AS 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM 7PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING LOSS...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE TOTALLY BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTH AS THE MODELS SEEM TO UNDERDONE IN THE RAIN CHANCES ALONG
THE FRONT. WITH THE POTENCY OF THE FRONT...IT SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA MUCH QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND ALLOW FOR A
POTENTIAL COOL DOWN FOR MIDWEEK.

A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT
UNLIKELY WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  86  59  79  54 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    63  86  62  79  55 /   0  10  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  64  88  62  80  56 /   0  10  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  65  90  63  83  56 /   0  10  20  20   0
CALERA      64  88  63  82  57 /   0  10  20  20   0
AUBURN      64  88  66  84  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  87  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
TROY        65  89  65  87  60 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 202352
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
652 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A TROUBLE MAKER AS THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF IN THE EAST. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY LOOKING AT A FEW
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

A FAIRLY DRY COLD...BUT POTENT...FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH AS
EARLY AS 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM 7PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING LOSS...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE TOTALLY BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTH AS THE MODELS SEEM TO UNDERDONE IN THE RAIN CHANCES ALONG
THE FRONT. WITH THE POTENCY OF THE FRONT...IT SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA MUCH QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND ALLOW FOR A
POTENTIAL COOL DOWN FOR MIDWEEK.

A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT
UNLIKELY WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  86  59  79  54 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    63  86  62  79  55 /   0  10  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  64  88  62  80  56 /   0  10  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  65  90  63  83  56 /   0  10  20  20   0
CALERA      64  88  63  82  57 /   0  10  20  20   0
AUBURN      64  88  66  84  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  87  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
TROY        65  89  65  87  60 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 202352
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
652 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A TROUBLE MAKER AS THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF IN THE EAST. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY LOOKING AT A FEW
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

A FAIRLY DRY COLD...BUT POTENT...FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH AS
EARLY AS 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM 7PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING LOSS...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE TOTALLY BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTH AS THE MODELS SEEM TO UNDERDONE IN THE RAIN CHANCES ALONG
THE FRONT. WITH THE POTENCY OF THE FRONT...IT SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA MUCH QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND ALLOW FOR A
POTENTIAL COOL DOWN FOR MIDWEEK.

A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT
UNLIKELY WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  86  59  79  54 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    63  86  62  79  55 /   0  10  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  64  88  62  80  56 /   0  10  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  65  90  63  83  56 /   0  10  20  20   0
CALERA      64  88  63  82  57 /   0  10  20  20   0
AUBURN      64  88  66  84  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  87  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
TROY        65  89  65  87  60 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 202338 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 209 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE A
SCT CU FIELD WAS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY ARND 60. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT WX MAKER IS A CDFNT NOW EXTENDING FROM NW KS THRU IA AND
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS CDFNT WILL BRING A CHC OF SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SINCE LOW
LEVEL FLOW/8H WINDS WILL BE NORTH...PCPN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. THE BEST TIMING OF PCPN WILL ARND 20Z TO
03Z. NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HVY RAIN. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP DRY AS THE CDFNT
PUSHES OUT OF THE TN VALLEY.

MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR FALL LIKE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MRNG LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S. SINCE GOING WITH ECMWF WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
HOWEVER GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MRNG.

WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA ON SATURDAY...SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PCPN
ON SATURDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE TO BE MOVED BACK TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF PANS OUT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
NIGHT. WITH LONGER NIGHTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...THERE
IS A RISK OF MVFR FOG/MIST AFFECTING THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUN AM. CLOUDS OTHERWISE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NW-SE DURING
SUN...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS
ISSUANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWER TIMING/PLACEMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 202338 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 209 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE A
SCT CU FIELD WAS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY ARND 60. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT WX MAKER IS A CDFNT NOW EXTENDING FROM NW KS THRU IA AND
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS CDFNT WILL BRING A CHC OF SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SINCE LOW
LEVEL FLOW/8H WINDS WILL BE NORTH...PCPN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. THE BEST TIMING OF PCPN WILL ARND 20Z TO
03Z. NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HVY RAIN. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP DRY AS THE CDFNT
PUSHES OUT OF THE TN VALLEY.

MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR FALL LIKE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MRNG LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S. SINCE GOING WITH ECMWF WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
HOWEVER GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MRNG.

WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA ON SATURDAY...SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PCPN
ON SATURDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE TO BE MOVED BACK TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF PANS OUT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
NIGHT. WITH LONGER NIGHTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...THERE
IS A RISK OF MVFR FOG/MIST AFFECTING THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUN AM. CLOUDS OTHERWISE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NW-SE DURING
SUN...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS
ISSUANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWER TIMING/PLACEMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 202338 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 209 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE A
SCT CU FIELD WAS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY ARND 60. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT WX MAKER IS A CDFNT NOW EXTENDING FROM NW KS THRU IA AND
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS CDFNT WILL BRING A CHC OF SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SINCE LOW
LEVEL FLOW/8H WINDS WILL BE NORTH...PCPN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. THE BEST TIMING OF PCPN WILL ARND 20Z TO
03Z. NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HVY RAIN. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP DRY AS THE CDFNT
PUSHES OUT OF THE TN VALLEY.

MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR FALL LIKE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MRNG LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S. SINCE GOING WITH ECMWF WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
HOWEVER GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MRNG.

WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA ON SATURDAY...SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PCPN
ON SATURDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE TO BE MOVED BACK TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF PANS OUT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
NIGHT. WITH LONGER NIGHTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...THERE
IS A RISK OF MVFR FOG/MIST AFFECTING THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUN AM. CLOUDS OTHERWISE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NW-SE DURING
SUN...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS
ISSUANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWER TIMING/PLACEMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 202338 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 209 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE A
SCT CU FIELD WAS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY ARND 60. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT WX MAKER IS A CDFNT NOW EXTENDING FROM NW KS THRU IA AND
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS CDFNT WILL BRING A CHC OF SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SINCE LOW
LEVEL FLOW/8H WINDS WILL BE NORTH...PCPN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. THE BEST TIMING OF PCPN WILL ARND 20Z TO
03Z. NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HVY RAIN. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP DRY AS THE CDFNT
PUSHES OUT OF THE TN VALLEY.

MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR FALL LIKE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MRNG LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S. SINCE GOING WITH ECMWF WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
HOWEVER GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MRNG.

WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA ON SATURDAY...SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PCPN
ON SATURDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE TO BE MOVED BACK TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF PANS OUT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
NIGHT. WITH LONGER NIGHTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...THERE
IS A RISK OF MVFR FOG/MIST AFFECTING THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUN AM. CLOUDS OTHERWISE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NW-SE DURING
SUN...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS
ISSUANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWER TIMING/PLACEMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 202035
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
335 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT...AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST....THE FA REMAINS UNDER DRY...COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED. WITH THE LAST
BOUNDARY TO MOVE OVER THE FA STILL HANGING AROUND SOUTH OF THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA...ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH
THE FAR OFFSHORE ZONES OF THE FA...BUT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY...THE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES NORTHEAST...WHILST
MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE LAST WEEK. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
EASES...BUT WITH A DRIER THAN SEASONAL AIRMASS OVER THE FA. WITH THE
DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA...TEMPS HIGHER THAN SEASONAL
EXPECTED. SEE NO INDICATION OF A BACK-DOOR SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORN. /16

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE
TROF AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE SYSTEM.  A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROF WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MORNING.  THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  A LARGE AND
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING STRENGTHENING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  UPPER RIDGING MEANWHILE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS LEFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROF.  WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AS LAYER LIFTING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTS
IN ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID FIFTIES.  SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CUT OFF OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES THEN WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROF BY SATURDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  WHILE THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION...AN INVERTED TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF CLOSE TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW.  EITHER WAY...WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...STRATUS DECK PUSHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA CONTINUES TO MIX OUT...WITH BASES IN THE MVFR RANGE. AM
EXPECTING THESE TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS... WITH LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG
DROPPING VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. /16

&&

.MARINE...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY UNTIL A FRONT GETS PUSHED ACROSS THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPORARY
RISES IN SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY FROM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS TO
NORTHEASTERLY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MAINLY UNPROTECTED WATERS SETTING BACK UP TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  90  64 /  05  05  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   69  87  71  90  67 /  05  05  05  20  10
DESTIN      72  85  73  88  70 /  05  05  05  20  10
EVERGREEN   64  91  65  89  57 /  00  05  10  20  05
WAYNESBORO  62  91  65  88  56 /  00  05  10  20  05
CAMDEN      63  91  66  89  55 /  00  05  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   65  89  65  90  62 /  05  05  05  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 202035
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
335 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT...AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST....THE FA REMAINS UNDER DRY...COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED. WITH THE LAST
BOUNDARY TO MOVE OVER THE FA STILL HANGING AROUND SOUTH OF THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA...ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH
THE FAR OFFSHORE ZONES OF THE FA...BUT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY...THE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES NORTHEAST...WHILST
MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE LAST WEEK. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
EASES...BUT WITH A DRIER THAN SEASONAL AIRMASS OVER THE FA. WITH THE
DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA...TEMPS HIGHER THAN SEASONAL
EXPECTED. SEE NO INDICATION OF A BACK-DOOR SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORN. /16

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE
TROF AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE SYSTEM.  A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROF WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MORNING.  THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  A LARGE AND
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING STRENGTHENING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  UPPER RIDGING MEANWHILE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS LEFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROF.  WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AS LAYER LIFTING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTS
IN ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID FIFTIES.  SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CUT OFF OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES THEN WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROF BY SATURDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  WHILE THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION...AN INVERTED TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF CLOSE TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW.  EITHER WAY...WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...STRATUS DECK PUSHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA CONTINUES TO MIX OUT...WITH BASES IN THE MVFR RANGE. AM
EXPECTING THESE TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS... WITH LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG
DROPPING VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. /16

&&

.MARINE...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY UNTIL A FRONT GETS PUSHED ACROSS THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPORARY
RISES IN SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY FROM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS TO
NORTHEASTERLY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MAINLY UNPROTECTED WATERS SETTING BACK UP TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  90  64 /  05  05  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   69  87  71  90  67 /  05  05  05  20  10
DESTIN      72  85  73  88  70 /  05  05  05  20  10
EVERGREEN   64  91  65  89  57 /  00  05  10  20  05
WAYNESBORO  62  91  65  88  56 /  00  05  10  20  05
CAMDEN      63  91  66  89  55 /  00  05  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   65  89  65  90  62 /  05  05  05  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 202001
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
301 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A TROUBLE MAKER AS THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF IN THE EAST. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY LOOKING AT A FEW
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

A FAIRLY DRY COLD...BUT POTENT...FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH AS
EARLY AS 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM 7PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING LOSS...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE TOTALLY BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTH AS THE MODELS SEEM TO UNDERDONE IN THE RAIN CHANCES ALONG
THE FRONT. WITH THE POTENCY OF THE FRONT...IT SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA MUCH QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND ALLOW FOR A
POTENTIAL COOL DOWN FOR MIDWEEK.

A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MORNING STRATUS DECK IS FINALLY MIXING OUT IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS
OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
UNLIKELY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  86  59  79  54 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    63  86  62  79  55 /   0  10  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  64  88  62  80  56 /   0  10  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  65  90  63  83  56 /   0  10  20  20   0
CALERA      64  88  63  82  57 /   0  10  20  20   0
AUBURN      64  88  66  84  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  87  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
TROY        65  89  65  87  60 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 202001
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
301 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A TROUBLE MAKER AS THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF IN THE EAST. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY LOOKING AT A FEW
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

A FAIRLY DRY COLD...BUT POTENT...FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH AS
EARLY AS 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM 7PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING LOSS...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE TOTALLY BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTH AS THE MODELS SEEM TO UNDERDONE IN THE RAIN CHANCES ALONG
THE FRONT. WITH THE POTENCY OF THE FRONT...IT SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA MUCH QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND ALLOW FOR A
POTENTIAL COOL DOWN FOR MIDWEEK.

A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MORNING STRATUS DECK IS FINALLY MIXING OUT IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS
OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
UNLIKELY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  86  59  79  54 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    63  86  62  79  55 /   0  10  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  64  88  62  80  56 /   0  10  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  65  90  63  83  56 /   0  10  20  20   0
CALERA      64  88  63  82  57 /   0  10  20  20   0
AUBURN      64  88  66  84  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  87  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
TROY        65  89  65  87  60 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 201909
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
209 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE A
SCT CU FIELD WAS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY ARND 60. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT WX MAKER IS A CDFNT NOW EXTENDING FROM NW KS THRU IA AND
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS CDFNT WILL BRING A CHC OF SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SINCE LOW
LEVEL FLOW/8H WINDS WILL BE NORTH...PCPN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. THE BEST TIMING OF PCPN WILL ARND 20Z TO
03Z. NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HVY RAIN. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP DRY AS THE CDFNT
PUSHES OUT OF THE TN VALLEY.

MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR FALL LIKE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MRNG LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S. SINCE GOING WITH ECMWF WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
HOWEVER GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MRNG.

WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA ON SATURDAY...SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PCPN
ON SATURDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE TO BE MOVED BACK TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF PANS OUT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1214 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...SCT MID CLOUDS AOA 4-5K FT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE
ONSET OF THE EVENING HRS. AS SUCH...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  88  58  77 /  10  30  40  10
SHOALS        64  89  57  78 /  10  30  30  10
VINEMONT      63  89  58  77 /  10  20  40  10
FAYETTEVILLE  60  86  57  75 /  10  40  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   62  88  58  78 /  10  20  40  10
FORT PAYNE    61  87  58  76 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201909
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
209 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE A
SCT CU FIELD WAS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY ARND 60. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT WX MAKER IS A CDFNT NOW EXTENDING FROM NW KS THRU IA AND
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS CDFNT WILL BRING A CHC OF SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SINCE LOW
LEVEL FLOW/8H WINDS WILL BE NORTH...PCPN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. THE BEST TIMING OF PCPN WILL ARND 20Z TO
03Z. NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HVY RAIN. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP DRY AS THE CDFNT
PUSHES OUT OF THE TN VALLEY.

MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR FALL LIKE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MRNG LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S. SINCE GOING WITH ECMWF WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
HOWEVER GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MRNG.

WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA ON SATURDAY...SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PCPN
ON SATURDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE TO BE MOVED BACK TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF PANS OUT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1214 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...SCT MID CLOUDS AOA 4-5K FT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE
ONSET OF THE EVENING HRS. AS SUCH...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  88  58  77 /  10  30  40  10
SHOALS        64  89  57  78 /  10  30  30  10
VINEMONT      63  89  58  77 /  10  20  40  10
FAYETTEVILLE  60  86  57  75 /  10  40  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   62  88  58  78 /  10  20  40  10
FORT PAYNE    61  87  58  76 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 201737
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REALLY NICE DAY EXPECTED TODAY...AND FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...
SO ONLY MINIMAL HOURLY CHANGES NEEDED. ENJOY THE LAST WEEKEND OF
SUMMER 2014. FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AT 929 PM CDT ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER
22ND. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MORNING STRATUS DECK IS FINALLY MIXING OUT IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS
OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
UNLIKELY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  86  59  79  54 /   0  10  30  10   0
ANNISTON    63  86  62  79  55 /   0  10  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  64  88  62  80  56 /   0  10  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  65  90  63  83  56 /   0  10  20  20   0
CALERA      64  88  63  82  57 /   0   0  20  20   0
AUBURN      64  88  66  84  59 /   0   0  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  87  59 /   0   0  20  20  10
TROY        65  89  65  87  60 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201737
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REALLY NICE DAY EXPECTED TODAY...AND FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...
SO ONLY MINIMAL HOURLY CHANGES NEEDED. ENJOY THE LAST WEEKEND OF
SUMMER 2014. FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AT 929 PM CDT ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER
22ND. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MORNING STRATUS DECK IS FINALLY MIXING OUT IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS
OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
UNLIKELY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  86  59  79  54 /   0  10  30  10   0
ANNISTON    63  86  62  79  55 /   0  10  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  64  88  62  80  56 /   0  10  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  65  90  63  83  56 /   0  10  20  20   0
CALERA      64  88  63  82  57 /   0   0  20  20   0
AUBURN      64  88  66  84  59 /   0   0  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  66  90  67  87  59 /   0   0  20  20  10
TROY        65  89  65  87  60 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 201726 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...STRATUS DECK PUSHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA CONTINUES TO MIX OUT...WITH BASES IN THE MVFR RANGE. AM
EXPECTING THESE TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS... WITH LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG
DROPPING VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS.

/16

&&

.UPDATE...JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN RAPIDLY SPREADING
WESTWARD AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ONCE DIURNAL HEATING COMMENCES IN EARNEST MID TO LATE MORNING...THE
STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ERODE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE DEEP LAYER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY DRY TODAY DUE TO N-NW MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THIS IS IN COMBINATION WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OR LESS...
RESULTING IN A RAIN FREE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. IT WILL ALSO FEEL A LITTLE LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO
THE 60S. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. EXPECT SOME OF THIS STRATUS TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING THE REST OF THE DAY.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S OVER INLAND AREAS WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. 34/JFB

(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING SOMEWHAT LIGHT BUT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE NOSING INTO OUR AREA FROM AN ANTICYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND...OVER BERMUDA...AND INTO THE GEORGIA COAST WESTWARD
INTO THE GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
BREAK IN TWO LEAVING US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS MOVING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. AHEAD OF IT WILL BE A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BRING A CHILL TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. NOW
THAT FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD US SUNDAY REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR REGION AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIFTED INDEX WILL BE AROUND +1.5 SO IT WILL BE STABLE WITH MINIMAL
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE RAIN UNTIL AROUND NOON MONDAY. AT THAT
POINT...AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH...PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY BUT NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX
WILL DROP UNTIL IT GETS TO AROUND -1 WHICH IS GENERALLY IN THE
SCATTERED THUNDER CATEGORY. FOR THAT REASON WE WENT FOR ONLY 30
PERCENT OR LESS IN A BAND MOVING SOUTH...AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SPECTACULAR RAIN OUT OF THIS AT THE MOMENT. 77/BD

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...WHERE WE LEFT OFF WAS
TALKING ABOUT NON-SPECTACULAR RAINFALL MONDAY...BUT WHAT SOME MAY
CONSIDER SPECTACULAR IS THE COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
NORTH OF A LINE TRAVERSING OUR AREA FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG AND
BEYOND U.S. HIGHWAY 84. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MORE NORMAL
FIGURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

A DRY NORTH 500 MB FLOW WILL PERSIST AS A VERY LARGE HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
AND  EAST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED
ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING SEABREEZE FRIDAY
AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE AREAS OF IFR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO REMAIN EAST OF MOB/BM...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE PNS COULD BE AFFECTED. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
BY 16-18Z. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. 34/JFB

MARINE...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS
RESULTING IN A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING IN AREA BAYS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS OF 4-6 FT
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH SUNDAY.

A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP DUE TO
AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS
INTO THE 5-7 FT RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KHUN 201714 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1214 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
LOW STRATUS MOVING W OUT OF W CNTRL GA HAS FOR THE MOST PART STAYED S
OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND STARTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE PAST
HR OR SO WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS FOR THE MOST PART
SHOULD BE THE TREND HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING HRS...ALTHOUGH A
FEW OF THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY STILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO PARTS OF NE AL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE LIFTING. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE
A FAIRLY NICE AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR. THE
MESOSCALE/SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION PERHAPS DEVELOPING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NW OF THE LOCAL AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE ONCOMING UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. OTHER
THAN TO GO WITH AN OPTIMISTICALLY MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...SCT MID CLOUDS AOA 4-5K FT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE
ONSET OF THE EVENING HRS. AS SUCH...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201714 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1214 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
LOW STRATUS MOVING W OUT OF W CNTRL GA HAS FOR THE MOST PART STAYED S
OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND STARTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE PAST
HR OR SO WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS FOR THE MOST PART
SHOULD BE THE TREND HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING HRS...ALTHOUGH A
FEW OF THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY STILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO PARTS OF NE AL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE LIFTING. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE
A FAIRLY NICE AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR. THE
MESOSCALE/SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION PERHAPS DEVELOPING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NW OF THE LOCAL AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE ONCOMING UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. OTHER
THAN TO GO WITH AN OPTIMISTICALLY MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...SCT MID CLOUDS AOA 4-5K FT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE
ONSET OF THE EVENING HRS. AS SUCH...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 201534
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1034 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REALLY NICE DAY EXPECTED TODAY...AND FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...
SO ONLY MINIMAL HOURLY CHANGES NEEDED. ENJOY THE LAST WEEKEND OF
SUMMER 2014. FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AT 929 PM CDT ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER
22ND. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATUS DECK HAS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THESE IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MGM AND EET
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL AFFECT ANB AND
BHM. AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE...MIXING WILL START TO LIFT CIGS
AND CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING BUT GIVEN THE
LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS...CLOUD DECK IS NOT TOO DEEP AND BY 15-16Z
SHOULD SEE CLEARING ACROSS THE EAST.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ONCE MORNING CLOUDS
MIX OUT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 8 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH
SKIES REMAINING CLEAR THIS EVENING.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 424 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY
THIS MORNING REVEAL A FEW LOW CLOUDS IN GEORGIA THAT MAY SPREAD INTO
ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THESE SHOULD ULTIMATELY
MIX OUT INTO A MORE UNIFORM CU FIELD.

MODELS (INCLUDING THE NAM) WERE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT
POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. I STILL THINK THE MODELS
ARE UNDERDOING THE CONVECTION PRODUCING POTENTIAL OF THIS FRONT --
AT LEAST A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONTRAST TO THE GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 PERCENT CHANCE GIVEN BY THE MOS GUIDANCE.

UNLIKE THE LAST FEW COLD FRONTS...THE UPCOMING ONE DOES SEEM TO
HAVE A LOT MORE "OOMPH" ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WHICH SHOULD HELP IT
MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA AND ALLOW AN APPRECIABLY DRIER
AIR MASS TO MOVE IN. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR SOME FOLKS
CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE NEXT WEEK.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  61  86  59  79 /   0   0  10  30  10
ANNISTON    82  63  86  62  79 /   0   0  10  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  84  64  88  62  80 /   0   0  10  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  89  65  90  63  83 /   0   0  10  20  20
CALERA      85  64  88  63  82 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUBURN      82  64  88  66  84 /   0   0   0  20  20
MONTGOMERY  86  66  90  67  87 /   0   0   0  20  20
TROY        84  65  89  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 201534
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1034 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REALLY NICE DAY EXPECTED TODAY...AND FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...
SO ONLY MINIMAL HOURLY CHANGES NEEDED. ENJOY THE LAST WEEKEND OF
SUMMER 2014. FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AT 929 PM CDT ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER
22ND. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATUS DECK HAS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THESE IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MGM AND EET
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL AFFECT ANB AND
BHM. AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE...MIXING WILL START TO LIFT CIGS
AND CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING BUT GIVEN THE
LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS...CLOUD DECK IS NOT TOO DEEP AND BY 15-16Z
SHOULD SEE CLEARING ACROSS THE EAST.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ONCE MORNING CLOUDS
MIX OUT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 8 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH
SKIES REMAINING CLEAR THIS EVENING.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 424 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY
THIS MORNING REVEAL A FEW LOW CLOUDS IN GEORGIA THAT MAY SPREAD INTO
ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THESE SHOULD ULTIMATELY
MIX OUT INTO A MORE UNIFORM CU FIELD.

MODELS (INCLUDING THE NAM) WERE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT
POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. I STILL THINK THE MODELS
ARE UNDERDOING THE CONVECTION PRODUCING POTENTIAL OF THIS FRONT --
AT LEAST A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONTRAST TO THE GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 PERCENT CHANCE GIVEN BY THE MOS GUIDANCE.

UNLIKE THE LAST FEW COLD FRONTS...THE UPCOMING ONE DOES SEEM TO
HAVE A LOT MORE "OOMPH" ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WHICH SHOULD HELP IT
MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA AND ALLOW AN APPRECIABLY DRIER
AIR MASS TO MOVE IN. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR SOME FOLKS
CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE NEXT WEEK.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  61  86  59  79 /   0   0  10  30  10
ANNISTON    82  63  86  62  79 /   0   0  10  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  84  64  88  62  80 /   0   0  10  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  89  65  90  63  83 /   0   0  10  20  20
CALERA      85  64  88  63  82 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUBURN      82  64  88  66  84 /   0   0   0  20  20
MONTGOMERY  86  66  90  67  87 /   0   0   0  20  20
TROY        84  65  89  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 201532 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS MOVING W OUT OF W CNTRL GA HAS FOR THE MOST PART STAYED S
OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND STARTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE PAST
HR OR SO WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS FOR THE MOST PART
SHOULD BE THE TREND HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING HRS...ALTHOUGH A
FEW OF THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY STILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO PARTS OF NE AL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE LIFTING. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE
A FAIRLY NICE AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR. THE
MESOSCALE/SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION PERHAPS DEVELOPING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NW OF THE LOCAL AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE ONCOMING UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. OTHER
THAN TO GO WITH AN OPTIMISTICALLY MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU 12Z/21. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION COULD BE RAPIDLY-DEVELOPING IFR-MVFR STRATUS PUSHING
NWWD FROM KATL AND KMGM. IT WOULD AFFECT KHSV BEFORE KMSL...AND
LIKELY WOULD BE LIFTING AND SCATTERING SOMEWHAT UPON ARRIVAL. HAVE
LIMITED ANY MENTION TO SCT015 THRU 14Z FOR NOW.

BCC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
QUIET BUT SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. OVERALL...VERY
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN -- FORECAST TO REACH NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL FORCE THE NORTH
FLORIDA CLOSED LOW TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
ALLOW HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA -- RESULTING IN
ANOTHER WARM AND GENERALLY DRY DAY. A REMOTE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS
WELL AS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AS MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE A BIT WEAKER IN THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A 10 POP. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH SUFFICIENT DIURNAL
MIXING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING LOWS TONIGHT TO BE JUST A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS MORNING.

MOST MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN PLAINS VORT MAX WILL UNDERGO
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE WILL LIKELY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...PERHAPS
INITIATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LATE MORNING SHOWERS. HOWEVER...
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF CONDITIONS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
SINKING MOTIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS INDICATED WELL BY POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH ACTUALLY SUGGEST THAT CINH VALUES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROMOTE STRONG WARMING ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR SO WARMER THAN TODAYS VALUES. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD -- EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN
TENNESSEE/CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL HAVE HIGHEST LATE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS NW
ALABAMA/SRN TENNESSEE AND HIGHEST EARLY EVENING POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT FORCE
THE CAP TO WEAKEN. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE
REGION BY 06Z MONDAY WITH A GUSTY NNE WIND ADVECTING COOLER/DRIER AIR
SOUTHWARD AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE U40S/L50S BY MONDAY MORNING.
BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH POSITION OF SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...WITH ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A
MORE AMPLIFIED PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT
THE SURFACE...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201532 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS MOVING W OUT OF W CNTRL GA HAS FOR THE MOST PART STAYED S
OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND STARTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE PAST
HR OR SO WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS FOR THE MOST PART
SHOULD BE THE TREND HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING HRS...ALTHOUGH A
FEW OF THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY STILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO PARTS OF NE AL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE LIFTING. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE
A FAIRLY NICE AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR. THE
MESOSCALE/SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION PERHAPS DEVELOPING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NW OF THE LOCAL AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE ONCOMING UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. OTHER
THAN TO GO WITH AN OPTIMISTICALLY MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU 12Z/21. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION COULD BE RAPIDLY-DEVELOPING IFR-MVFR STRATUS PUSHING
NWWD FROM KATL AND KMGM. IT WOULD AFFECT KHSV BEFORE KMSL...AND
LIKELY WOULD BE LIFTING AND SCATTERING SOMEWHAT UPON ARRIVAL. HAVE
LIMITED ANY MENTION TO SCT015 THRU 14Z FOR NOW.

BCC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
QUIET BUT SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. OVERALL...VERY
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN -- FORECAST TO REACH NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL FORCE THE NORTH
FLORIDA CLOSED LOW TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
ALLOW HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA -- RESULTING IN
ANOTHER WARM AND GENERALLY DRY DAY. A REMOTE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS
WELL AS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AS MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE A BIT WEAKER IN THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A 10 POP. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH SUFFICIENT DIURNAL
MIXING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING LOWS TONIGHT TO BE JUST A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS MORNING.

MOST MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN PLAINS VORT MAX WILL UNDERGO
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE WILL LIKELY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...PERHAPS
INITIATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LATE MORNING SHOWERS. HOWEVER...
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF CONDITIONS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
SINKING MOTIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS INDICATED WELL BY POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH ACTUALLY SUGGEST THAT CINH VALUES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROMOTE STRONG WARMING ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR SO WARMER THAN TODAYS VALUES. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD -- EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN
TENNESSEE/CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL HAVE HIGHEST LATE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS NW
ALABAMA/SRN TENNESSEE AND HIGHEST EARLY EVENING POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT FORCE
THE CAP TO WEAKEN. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE
REGION BY 06Z MONDAY WITH A GUSTY NNE WIND ADVECTING COOLER/DRIER AIR
SOUTHWARD AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE U40S/L50S BY MONDAY MORNING.
BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH POSITION OF SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...WITH ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A
MORE AMPLIFIED PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT
THE SURFACE...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 201149
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY
THIS MORNING REVEAL A FEW LOW CLOUDS IN GEORGIA THAT MAY SPREAD INTO
ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THESE SHOULD ULTIMATELY
MIX OUT INTO A MORE UNIFORM CU FIELD.

MODELS (INCLUDING THE NAM) WERE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT
POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. I STILL THINK THE MODELS
ARE UNDERDOING THE CONVECTION PRODUCING POTENTIAL OF THIS FRONT --
AT LEAST A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONTRAST TO THE GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 PERCENT CHANCE GIVEN BY THE MOS GUIDANCE.

UNLIKE THE LAST FEW COLD FRONTS...THE UPCOMING ONE DOES SEEM TO
HAVE A LOT MORE "OOMPH" ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WHICH SHOULD HELP IT
MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA AND ALLOW AN APPRECIABLY DRIER
AIR MASS TO MOVE IN. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR SOME FOLKS
CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE NEXT WEEK.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATUS DECK HAS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THESE IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MGM AND EET
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL AFFECT ANB AND
BHM. AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE...MIXING WILL START TO LIFT CIGS
AND CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING BUT GIVEN THE
LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS...CLOUD DECK IS NOT TOO DEEP AND BY 15-16Z
SHOULD SEE CLEARING ACROSS THE EAST.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ONCE MORNING CLOUDS
MIX OUT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 8 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH
SKIES REMAINING CLEAR THIS EVENING.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  61  86  59  79 /   0   0  10  30  10
ANNISTON    82  63  86  62  79 /   0   0  10  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  84  64  88  62  80 /   0   0  10  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  89  65  90  63  83 /   0   0  10  20  20
CALERA      85  64  88  63  82 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUBURN      82  64  88  66  84 /   0   0   0  20  20
MONTGOMERY  86  66  90  67  87 /   0   0   0  20  20
TROY        84  65  89  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 201149
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY
THIS MORNING REVEAL A FEW LOW CLOUDS IN GEORGIA THAT MAY SPREAD INTO
ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THESE SHOULD ULTIMATELY
MIX OUT INTO A MORE UNIFORM CU FIELD.

MODELS (INCLUDING THE NAM) WERE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT
POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. I STILL THINK THE MODELS
ARE UNDERDOING THE CONVECTION PRODUCING POTENTIAL OF THIS FRONT --
AT LEAST A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONTRAST TO THE GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 PERCENT CHANCE GIVEN BY THE MOS GUIDANCE.

UNLIKE THE LAST FEW COLD FRONTS...THE UPCOMING ONE DOES SEEM TO
HAVE A LOT MORE "OOMPH" ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WHICH SHOULD HELP IT
MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA AND ALLOW AN APPRECIABLY DRIER
AIR MASS TO MOVE IN. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR SOME FOLKS
CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE NEXT WEEK.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATUS DECK HAS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THESE IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MGM AND EET
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL AFFECT ANB AND
BHM. AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE...MIXING WILL START TO LIFT CIGS
AND CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING BUT GIVEN THE
LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS...CLOUD DECK IS NOT TOO DEEP AND BY 15-16Z
SHOULD SEE CLEARING ACROSS THE EAST.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ONCE MORNING CLOUDS
MIX OUT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 8 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH
SKIES REMAINING CLEAR THIS EVENING.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  61  86  59  79 /   0   0  10  30  10
ANNISTON    82  63  86  62  79 /   0   0  10  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  84  64  88  62  80 /   0   0  10  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  89  65  90  63  83 /   0   0  10  20  20
CALERA      85  64  88  63  82 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUBURN      82  64  88  66  84 /   0   0   0  20  20
MONTGOMERY  86  66  90  67  87 /   0   0   0  20  20
TROY        84  65  89  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 201144 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN RAPIDLY SPREADING
WESTWARD AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ONCE DIURNAL HEATING COMMENCES IN EARNEST MID TO LATE MORNING...THE
STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ERODE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...BAED ON SATELLITE TRENDS ADDED A TEMPO GROUP OF
IFR CIGS AT PNS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE LOW CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH BFM/MOB AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE DEEP LAYER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY DRY TODAY DUE TO N-NW MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THIS IS IN COMBINATION WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OR LESS...
RESULTING IN A RAIN FREE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. IT WILL ALSO FEEL A LITTLE LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO
THE 60S. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. EXPECT SOME OF THIS STRATUS TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING THE REST OF THE DAY.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S OVER INLAND AREAS WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. 34/JFB

(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING SOMEWHAT LIGHT BUT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE NOSING INTO OUR AREA FROM AN ANTICYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND...OVER BERMUDA...AND INTO THE GEORGIA COAST WESTWARD
INTO THE GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
BREAK IN TWO LEAVING US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS MOVING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. AHEAD OF IT WILL BE A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BRING A CHILL TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. NOW
THAT FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD US SUNDAY REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR REGION AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIFTED INDEX WILL BE AROUND +1.5 SO IT WILL BE STABLE WITH MINIMAL
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE RAIN UNTIL AROUND NOON MONDAY. AT THAT
POINT...AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH...PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY BUT NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX
WILL DROP UNTIL IT GETS TO AROUND -1 WHICH IS GENERALLY IN THE
SCATTERED THUNDER CATEGORY. FOR THAT REASON WE WENT FOR ONLY 30
PERCENT OR LESS IN A BAND MOVING SOUTH...AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SPECTACULAR RAIN OUT OF THIS AT THE MOMENT. 77/BD

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...WHERE WE LEFT OFF WAS
TALKING ABOUT NON-SPECTACULAR RAINFALL MONDAY...BUT WHAT SOME MAY
CONSIDER SPECTACULAR IS THE COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
NORTH OF A LINE TRAVERSING OUR AREA FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG AND
BEYOND U.S. HIGHWAY 84. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MORE NORMAL
FIGURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

A DRY NORTH 500 MB FLOW WILL PERSIST AS A VERY LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AND
EAST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED
ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING SEABREEZE FRIDAY
AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE AREAS OF IFR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO REMAIN EAST OF MOB/BM...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE PNS COULD BE AFFECTED. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
BY 16-18Z. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. 34/JFB

MARINE...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS RESULTING
IN A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING IN AREA BAYS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS OF 4-6 FT
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH SUNDAY.

A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP DUE TO
AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS
INTO THE 5-7 FT RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 201144 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN RAPIDLY SPREADING
WESTWARD AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ONCE DIURNAL HEATING COMMENCES IN EARNEST MID TO LATE MORNING...THE
STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ERODE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...BAED ON SATELLITE TRENDS ADDED A TEMPO GROUP OF
IFR CIGS AT PNS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE LOW CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH BFM/MOB AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE DEEP LAYER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY DRY TODAY DUE TO N-NW MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THIS IS IN COMBINATION WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OR LESS...
RESULTING IN A RAIN FREE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. IT WILL ALSO FEEL A LITTLE LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO
THE 60S. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. EXPECT SOME OF THIS STRATUS TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING THE REST OF THE DAY.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S OVER INLAND AREAS WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. 34/JFB

(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING SOMEWHAT LIGHT BUT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE NOSING INTO OUR AREA FROM AN ANTICYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND...OVER BERMUDA...AND INTO THE GEORGIA COAST WESTWARD
INTO THE GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
BREAK IN TWO LEAVING US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS MOVING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. AHEAD OF IT WILL BE A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BRING A CHILL TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. NOW
THAT FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD US SUNDAY REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR REGION AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIFTED INDEX WILL BE AROUND +1.5 SO IT WILL BE STABLE WITH MINIMAL
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE RAIN UNTIL AROUND NOON MONDAY. AT THAT
POINT...AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH...PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY BUT NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX
WILL DROP UNTIL IT GETS TO AROUND -1 WHICH IS GENERALLY IN THE
SCATTERED THUNDER CATEGORY. FOR THAT REASON WE WENT FOR ONLY 30
PERCENT OR LESS IN A BAND MOVING SOUTH...AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SPECTACULAR RAIN OUT OF THIS AT THE MOMENT. 77/BD

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...WHERE WE LEFT OFF WAS
TALKING ABOUT NON-SPECTACULAR RAINFALL MONDAY...BUT WHAT SOME MAY
CONSIDER SPECTACULAR IS THE COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
NORTH OF A LINE TRAVERSING OUR AREA FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG AND
BEYOND U.S. HIGHWAY 84. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MORE NORMAL
FIGURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

A DRY NORTH 500 MB FLOW WILL PERSIST AS A VERY LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AND
EAST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED
ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING SEABREEZE FRIDAY
AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE AREAS OF IFR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO REMAIN EAST OF MOB/BM...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE PNS COULD BE AFFECTED. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
BY 16-18Z. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. 34/JFB

MARINE...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS RESULTING
IN A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING IN AREA BAYS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS OF 4-6 FT
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH SUNDAY.

A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP DUE TO
AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS
INTO THE 5-7 FT RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 201142 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
642 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
QUIET BUT SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. OVERALL...VERY
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN -- FORECAST TO REACH NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL FORCE THE NORTH
FLORIDA CLOSED LOW TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
ALLOW HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA -- RESULTING IN
ANOTHER WARM AND GENERALLY DRY DAY. A REMOTE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS
WELL AS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AS MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE A BIT WEAKER IN THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A 10 POP. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH SUFFICIENT DIURNAL
MIXING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING LOWS TONIGHT TO BE JUST A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS MORNING.

MOST MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN PLAINS VORT MAX WILL UNDERGO
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE WILL LIKELY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...PERHAPS
INITIATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LATE MORNING SHOWERS. HOWEVER...
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF CONDITIONS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
SINKING MOTIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS INDICATED WELL BY POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH ACTUALLY SUGGEST THAT CINH VALUES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROMOTE STRONG WARMING ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR SO WARMER THAN TODAYS VALUES. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD -- EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN
TENNESSEE/CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL HAVE HIGHEST LATE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS NW
ALABAMA/SRN TENNESSEE AND HIGHEST EARLY EVENING POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT FORCE
THE CAP TO WEAKEN. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE
REGION BY 06Z MONDAY WITH A GUSTY NNE WIND ADVECTING COOLER/DRIER AIR
SOUTHWARD AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE U40S/L50S BY MONDAY MORNING.
BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH POSITION OF SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...WITH ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A
MORE AMPLIFIED PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT
THE SURFACE...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU 12Z/21. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION COULD BE RAPIDLY-DEVELOPING IFR-MVFR STRATUS PUSHING
NWWD FROM KATL AND KMGM. IT WOULD AFFECT KHSV BEFORE KMSL...AND
LIKELY WOULD BE LIFTING AND SCATTERING SOMEWHAT UPON ARRIVAL. HAVE
LIMITED ANY MENTION TO SCT015 THRU 14Z FOR NOW.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201142 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
642 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
QUIET BUT SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. OVERALL...VERY
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN -- FORECAST TO REACH NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL FORCE THE NORTH
FLORIDA CLOSED LOW TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
ALLOW HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA -- RESULTING IN
ANOTHER WARM AND GENERALLY DRY DAY. A REMOTE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS
WELL AS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AS MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE A BIT WEAKER IN THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A 10 POP. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH SUFFICIENT DIURNAL
MIXING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING LOWS TONIGHT TO BE JUST A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS MORNING.

MOST MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN PLAINS VORT MAX WILL UNDERGO
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE WILL LIKELY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...PERHAPS
INITIATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LATE MORNING SHOWERS. HOWEVER...
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF CONDITIONS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
SINKING MOTIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS INDICATED WELL BY POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH ACTUALLY SUGGEST THAT CINH VALUES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROMOTE STRONG WARMING ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR SO WARMER THAN TODAYS VALUES. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD -- EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN
TENNESSEE/CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL HAVE HIGHEST LATE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS NW
ALABAMA/SRN TENNESSEE AND HIGHEST EARLY EVENING POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT FORCE
THE CAP TO WEAKEN. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE
REGION BY 06Z MONDAY WITH A GUSTY NNE WIND ADVECTING COOLER/DRIER AIR
SOUTHWARD AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE U40S/L50S BY MONDAY MORNING.
BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH POSITION OF SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...WITH ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A
MORE AMPLIFIED PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT
THE SURFACE...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU 12Z/21. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION COULD BE RAPIDLY-DEVELOPING IFR-MVFR STRATUS PUSHING
NWWD FROM KATL AND KMGM. IT WOULD AFFECT KHSV BEFORE KMSL...AND
LIKELY WOULD BE LIFTING AND SCATTERING SOMEWHAT UPON ARRIVAL. HAVE
LIMITED ANY MENTION TO SCT015 THRU 14Z FOR NOW.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201142 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
642 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
QUIET BUT SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. OVERALL...VERY
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN -- FORECAST TO REACH NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL FORCE THE NORTH
FLORIDA CLOSED LOW TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
ALLOW HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA -- RESULTING IN
ANOTHER WARM AND GENERALLY DRY DAY. A REMOTE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS
WELL AS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AS MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE A BIT WEAKER IN THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A 10 POP. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH SUFFICIENT DIURNAL
MIXING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING LOWS TONIGHT TO BE JUST A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS MORNING.

MOST MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN PLAINS VORT MAX WILL UNDERGO
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE WILL LIKELY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...PERHAPS
INITIATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LATE MORNING SHOWERS. HOWEVER...
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF CONDITIONS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
SINKING MOTIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS INDICATED WELL BY POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH ACTUALLY SUGGEST THAT CINH VALUES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROMOTE STRONG WARMING ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR SO WARMER THAN TODAYS VALUES. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD -- EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN
TENNESSEE/CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL HAVE HIGHEST LATE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS NW
ALABAMA/SRN TENNESSEE AND HIGHEST EARLY EVENING POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT FORCE
THE CAP TO WEAKEN. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE
REGION BY 06Z MONDAY WITH A GUSTY NNE WIND ADVECTING COOLER/DRIER AIR
SOUTHWARD AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE U40S/L50S BY MONDAY MORNING.
BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH POSITION OF SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...WITH ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A
MORE AMPLIFIED PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT
THE SURFACE...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU 12Z/21. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION COULD BE RAPIDLY-DEVELOPING IFR-MVFR STRATUS PUSHING
NWWD FROM KATL AND KMGM. IT WOULD AFFECT KHSV BEFORE KMSL...AND
LIKELY WOULD BE LIFTING AND SCATTERING SOMEWHAT UPON ARRIVAL. HAVE
LIMITED ANY MENTION TO SCT015 THRU 14Z FOR NOW.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 201142 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
642 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
QUIET BUT SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. OVERALL...VERY
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN -- FORECAST TO REACH NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL FORCE THE NORTH
FLORIDA CLOSED LOW TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
ALLOW HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA -- RESULTING IN
ANOTHER WARM AND GENERALLY DRY DAY. A REMOTE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS
WELL AS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AS MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE A BIT WEAKER IN THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A 10 POP. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH SUFFICIENT DIURNAL
MIXING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING LOWS TONIGHT TO BE JUST A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS MORNING.

MOST MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN PLAINS VORT MAX WILL UNDERGO
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE WILL LIKELY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...PERHAPS
INITIATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LATE MORNING SHOWERS. HOWEVER...
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF CONDITIONS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
SINKING MOTIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS INDICATED WELL BY POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH ACTUALLY SUGGEST THAT CINH VALUES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROMOTE STRONG WARMING ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR SO WARMER THAN TODAYS VALUES. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD -- EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN
TENNESSEE/CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL HAVE HIGHEST LATE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS NW
ALABAMA/SRN TENNESSEE AND HIGHEST EARLY EVENING POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT FORCE
THE CAP TO WEAKEN. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE
REGION BY 06Z MONDAY WITH A GUSTY NNE WIND ADVECTING COOLER/DRIER AIR
SOUTHWARD AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE U40S/L50S BY MONDAY MORNING.
BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH POSITION OF SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...WITH ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A
MORE AMPLIFIED PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT
THE SURFACE...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU 12Z/21. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION COULD BE RAPIDLY-DEVELOPING IFR-MVFR STRATUS PUSHING
NWWD FROM KATL AND KMGM. IT WOULD AFFECT KHSV BEFORE KMSL...AND
LIKELY WOULD BE LIFTING AND SCATTERING SOMEWHAT UPON ARRIVAL. HAVE
LIMITED ANY MENTION TO SCT015 THRU 14Z FOR NOW.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 200957
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
457 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET BUT SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. OVERALL...VERY
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN -- FORECAST TO REACH NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL FORCE THE NORTH
FLORIDA CLOSED LOW TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
ALLOW HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA -- RESULTING IN
ANOTHER WARM AND GENERALLY DRY DAY. A REMOTE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS
WELL AS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AS MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE A BIT WEAKER IN THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A 10 POP. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH SUFFICIENT DIURNAL
MIXING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING LOWS TONIGHT TO BE JUST A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS MORNING.

MOST MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN PLAINS VORT MAX WILL UNDERGO
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE WILL LIKELY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...PERHAPS
INITIATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LATE MORNING SHOWERS. HOWEVER...
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF CONDITIONS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
SINKING MOTIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS INDICATED WELL BY POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH ACTUALLY SUGGEST THAT CINH VALUES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROMOTE STRONG WARMING ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR SO WARMER THAN TODAYS VALUES. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD -- EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN
TENNESSEE/CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL HAVE HIGHEST LATE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS NW
ALABAMA/SRN TENNESSEE AND HIGHEST EARLY EVENING POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT FORCE
THE CAP TO WEAKEN. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE
REGION BY 06Z MONDAY WITH A GUSTY NNE WIND ADVECTING COOLER/DRIER AIR
SOUTHWARD AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE U40S/L50S BY MONDAY MORNING.
BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH POSITION OF SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...WITH ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A
MORE AMPLIFIED PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT
THE SURFACE...WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1228 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES...EXCEPT
FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    88  62  89  60 /  10  10  20  40
SHOALS        89  62  90  59 /  10  10  30  30
VINEMONT      87  60  88  59 /  10  10  10  40
FAYETTEVILLE  87  61  87  58 /  10  10  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   87  60  88  59 /  10  10  10  40
FORT PAYNE    87  59  87  59 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 200928
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
428 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE DEEP LAYER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY DRY TODAY DUE TO N-NW MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THIS IS IN COMBINATION WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OR LESS...
RESULTING IN A RAIN FREE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. IT WILL ALSO FEEL A LITTLE LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO
THE 60S. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. EXPECT SOME OF THIS STRATUS TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING THE REST OF THE DAY.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S OVER INLAND AREAS WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. 34/JFB

(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING SOMEWHAT LIGHT BUT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE NOSING INTO OUR AREA FROM AN ANTICYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND...OVER BERMUDA...AND INTO THE GEORGIA COAST WESTWARD
INTO THE GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
BREAK IN TWO LEAVING US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS MOVING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. AHEAD OF IT WILL BE A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BRING A CHILL TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. NOW
THAT FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD US SUNDAY REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR REGION AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIFTED INDEX WILL BE AROUND +1.5 SO IT WILL BE STABLE WITH MINIMAL
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE RAIN UNTIL AROUND NOON MONDAY. AT THAT
POINT...AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH...PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY BUT NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX
WILL DROP UNTIL IT GETS TO AROUND -1 WHICH IS GENERALLY IN THE
SCATTERED THUNDER CATEGORY. FOR THAT REASON WE WENT FOR ONLY 30
PERCENT OR LESS IN A BAND MOVING SOUTH...AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SPECTACULAR RAIN OUT OF THIS AT THE MOMENT. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...WHERE WE LEFT OFF WAS
TALKING ABOUT NON-SPECTACULAR RAINFALL MONDAY...BUT WHAT SOME MAY
CONSIDER SPECTACULAR IS THE COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
NORTH OF A LINE TRAVERSING OUR AREA FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG AND
BEYOND U.S. HIGHWAY 84. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MORE NORMAL
FIGURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

A DRY NORTH 500 MB FLOW WILL PERSIST AS A VERY LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AND
EAST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED
ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING SEABREEZE FRIDAY
AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE AREAS OF IFR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO REMAIN EAST OF MOB/BM...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE PNS COULD BE AFFECTED. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
BY 16-18Z. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS RESULTING
IN A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING IN AREA BAYS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS OF 4-6 FT
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH SUNDAY.

A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP DUE TO
AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS
INTO THE 5-7 FT RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  68  89  69  88 /  05  05  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   87  70  87  71  88 /  05  05  05  10  20
DESTIN      85  71  85  73  87 /  05  05  05  05  20
EVERGREEN   87  64  89  65  88 /  05  00  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  88  63  90  66  87 /  05  00  05  05  20
CAMDEN      86  63  90  67  87 /  00  00  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   86  64  89  63  90 /  05  05  05  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 200924
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
424 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY
THIS MORNING REVEAL A FEW LOW CLOUDS IN GEORGIA THAT MAY SPREAD INTO
ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THESE SHOULD ULTIMATELY
MIX OUT INTO A MORE UNIFORM CU FIELD.

MODELS (INCLUDING THE NAM) WERE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT
POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. I STILL THINK THE MODELS
ARE UNDERDOING THE CONVECTION PRODUCING POTENTIAL OF THIS FRONT --
AT LEAST A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONTRAST TO THE GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 PERCENT CHANCE GIVEN BY THE MOS GUIDANCE.

UNLIKE THE LAST FEW COLD FRONTS...THE UPCOMING ONE DOES SEEM TO
HAVE A LOT MORE "OOMPH" ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WHICH SHOULD HELP IT
MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA AND ALLOW AN APPRECIABLY DRIER
AIR MASS TO MOVE IN. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR SOME FOLKS
CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE NEXT WEEK.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EVENING SOUNDINGS CAME IN A LITTLE DRIER THAN WAS ANTICIPATING AND
MODEL TRENDS HAVE ALSO SLOWLY BACKED OFF THE DURATION AND OVERALL
POSSIBILITY THE MVFR CEILINGS. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME PATCHES OF
MVFR DEVELOPING IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE AT ANB SO WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF IT IN THAT
LOCATION. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AT TOI DUE TO THE
AFTERNOON RAINFALL. AFTERNOON CROSSOVER TEMPS WOULD PUT A FOG THREAT
AROUND 63 OR 64. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE UP ENOUGH
TO PREVENT FOG BUT SOME LOWER CEILINGS SEEM PLAUSIBLE. EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  61  86  59  79 /   0   0  10  30  10
ANNISTON    82  63  86  62  79 /   0   0  10  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  84  64  88  62  80 /   0   0  10  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  89  65  90  63  83 /   0   0  10  20  20
CALERA      85  64  88  63  82 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUBURN      82  64  88  66  84 /   0   0   0  20  20
MONTGOMERY  86  66  90  67  87 /   0   0   0  20  20
TROY        84  65  89  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 200924
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
424 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY
THIS MORNING REVEAL A FEW LOW CLOUDS IN GEORGIA THAT MAY SPREAD INTO
ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THESE SHOULD ULTIMATELY
MIX OUT INTO A MORE UNIFORM CU FIELD.

MODELS (INCLUDING THE NAM) WERE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT
POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. I STILL THINK THE MODELS
ARE UNDERDOING THE CONVECTION PRODUCING POTENTIAL OF THIS FRONT --
AT LEAST A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONTRAST TO THE GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 PERCENT CHANCE GIVEN BY THE MOS GUIDANCE.

UNLIKE THE LAST FEW COLD FRONTS...THE UPCOMING ONE DOES SEEM TO
HAVE A LOT MORE "OOMPH" ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WHICH SHOULD HELP IT
MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA AND ALLOW AN APPRECIABLY DRIER
AIR MASS TO MOVE IN. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR SOME FOLKS
CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE NEXT WEEK.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EVENING SOUNDINGS CAME IN A LITTLE DRIER THAN WAS ANTICIPATING AND
MODEL TRENDS HAVE ALSO SLOWLY BACKED OFF THE DURATION AND OVERALL
POSSIBILITY THE MVFR CEILINGS. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME PATCHES OF
MVFR DEVELOPING IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE AT ANB SO WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF IT IN THAT
LOCATION. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AT TOI DUE TO THE
AFTERNOON RAINFALL. AFTERNOON CROSSOVER TEMPS WOULD PUT A FOG THREAT
AROUND 63 OR 64. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE UP ENOUGH
TO PREVENT FOG BUT SOME LOWER CEILINGS SEEM PLAUSIBLE. EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  61  86  59  79 /   0   0  10  30  10
ANNISTON    82  63  86  62  79 /   0   0  10  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  84  64  88  62  80 /   0   0  10  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  89  65  90  63  83 /   0   0  10  20  20
CALERA      85  64  88  63  82 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUBURN      82  64  88  66  84 /   0   0   0  20  20
MONTGOMERY  86  66  90  67  87 /   0   0   0  20  20
TROY        84  65  89  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 200528
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 752 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING THAT ALL OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS
ENDED DUE TO LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITIES. CLOUD
COVER WAS ALSO DECREASING AND WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN FCST ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE IT
LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT COMING UP.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES...EXCEPT
FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 200528
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 752 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING THAT ALL OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS
ENDED DUE TO LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITIES. CLOUD
COVER WAS ALSO DECREASING AND WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN FCST ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE IT
LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT COMING UP.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES...EXCEPT
FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 200453 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION [20.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER A FEW LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL LOWER LYING LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DECREASING
IN COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS HELD ON AND IS
DEVELOPING INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. WE
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE REDUCING POPS TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  10  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  20  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  20  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  10  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  10  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  10  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  20  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 200453 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION [20.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER A FEW LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL LOWER LYING LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DECREASING
IN COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS HELD ON AND IS
DEVELOPING INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. WE
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE REDUCING POPS TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  10  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  20  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  20  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  10  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  10  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  10  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  20  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 200453 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION [20.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER A FEW LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL LOWER LYING LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DECREASING
IN COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS HELD ON AND IS
DEVELOPING INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. WE
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE REDUCING POPS TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  10  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  20  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  20  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  10  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  10  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  10  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  20  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 200453 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION [20.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER A FEW LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL LOWER LYING LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DECREASING
IN COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS HELD ON AND IS
DEVELOPING INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. WE
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE REDUCING POPS TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  10  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  20  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  20  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  10  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  10  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  10  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  20  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 200452
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1152 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY THIS EVENING DUE TO
LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EVENING SOUNDINGS CAME IN A LITTLE DRIER THAN WAS ANTICIPATING AND
MODEL TRENDS HAVE ALSO SLOWLY BACKED OFF THE DURATION AND OVERALL
POSSIBILITY THE MVFR CEILINGS. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME PATCHES OF
MVFR DEVELOPING IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE AT ANB SO WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF IT IN THAT
LOCATION. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AT TOI DUE TO THE
AFTERNOON RAINFALL. AFTERNOON CROSSOVER TEMPS WOULD PUT A FOG THREAT
AROUND 63 OR 64. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE UP ENOUGH
TO PREVENT FOG BUT SOME LOWER CEILINGS SEEM PLAUSIBLE. EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 200148 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
848 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DECREASING
IN COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS HELD ON AND IS
DEVELOPING INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. WE
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE REDUCING POPS TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED
OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION [20.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL MAINLY IMPACT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AL FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OTHER THAN
LOCALIZED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS NEAR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR COASTAL AREAS...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH AL
STRETCHING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST MS. FURTHER SOUTH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND MOBILE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. FOR INLAND AREAS THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST LATER TODAY WITH A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH BETTER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WHERE  LESS
CLOUDS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY. FOR LATER THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SHIFTING SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND MET AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE...MOSTLY
OVER INLAND AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...[SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...IT WILL BE RAIN-FREE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE AS TWO SURFACE LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A
LARGE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES
EAST INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

AVIATION...[19.18Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.18Z
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY EAST
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GENERATE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OCCURRING
MOSTLY OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET EARLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN FORM A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDWEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  20  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  20  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  30  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  20  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  20  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  30  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 200148 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
848 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DECREASING
IN COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS HELD ON AND IS
DEVELOPING INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. WE
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE REDUCING POPS TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED
OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION [20.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL MAINLY IMPACT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AL FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OTHER THAN
LOCALIZED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS NEAR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR COASTAL AREAS...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH AL
STRETCHING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST MS. FURTHER SOUTH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND MOBILE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. FOR INLAND AREAS THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST LATER TODAY WITH A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH BETTER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WHERE  LESS
CLOUDS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY. FOR LATER THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SHIFTING SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND MET AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE...MOSTLY
OVER INLAND AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...[SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...IT WILL BE RAIN-FREE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE AS TWO SURFACE LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A
LARGE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES
EAST INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

AVIATION...[19.18Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.18Z
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY EAST
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GENERATE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OCCURRING
MOSTLY OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET EARLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN FORM A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDWEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  20  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  20  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  30  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  20  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  20  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  30  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 200148 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
848 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DECREASING
IN COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS HELD ON AND IS
DEVELOPING INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. WE
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE REDUCING POPS TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED
OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION [20.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL MAINLY IMPACT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AL FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OTHER THAN
LOCALIZED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS NEAR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR COASTAL AREAS...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH AL
STRETCHING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST MS. FURTHER SOUTH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND MOBILE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. FOR INLAND AREAS THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST LATER TODAY WITH A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH BETTER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WHERE  LESS
CLOUDS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY. FOR LATER THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SHIFTING SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND MET AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE...MOSTLY
OVER INLAND AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...[SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...IT WILL BE RAIN-FREE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE AS TWO SURFACE LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A
LARGE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES
EAST INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

AVIATION...[19.18Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.18Z
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY EAST
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GENERATE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OCCURRING
MOSTLY OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET EARLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN FORM A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDWEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  20  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  20  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  30  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  20  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  20  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  30  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 200148 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
848 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DECREASING
IN COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS HELD ON AND IS
DEVELOPING INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. WE
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE REDUCING POPS TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED
OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION [20.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL MAINLY IMPACT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AL FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OTHER THAN
LOCALIZED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS NEAR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR COASTAL AREAS...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH AL
STRETCHING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST MS. FURTHER SOUTH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND MOBILE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. FOR INLAND AREAS THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST LATER TODAY WITH A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH BETTER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WHERE  LESS
CLOUDS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY. FOR LATER THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SHIFTING SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND MET AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE...MOSTLY
OVER INLAND AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...[SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...IT WILL BE RAIN-FREE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE AS TWO SURFACE LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A
LARGE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES
EAST INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

AVIATION...[19.18Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.18Z
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY EAST
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GENERATE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OCCURRING
MOSTLY OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET EARLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN FORM A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDWEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  20  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  20  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  30  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  20  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  20  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  30  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 200119
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
819 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY THIS EVENING DUE TO
LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.


58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. A REASONABLE
CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA LATER TONIGHT...THEN IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING.

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.

88


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

EARLIER UPDATE STILL ON TRACK AS ACTIVITY DID DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT MORE IN COVERAGE THAN
EXPECTED AS THE WEDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WEDGE SLIDE WEST BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. WHAT THIS
SHOULD MEAN FOR THE AREA WOULD BE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BY THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE
BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE DRY SLOT DURING
THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. ON SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
CONVENTIONAL COLD FRONT SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT REMAINS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY BEGIN TO FEEL
MORE LIKE FALL AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY MORNING.
A FEW COOLER SPOTS MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH.

EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING BACK MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE EURO KEEPS THE
AREA DRY...BUT WITH EASTERLY FLOW THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALWAYS A GOOD BET.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  83  64  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  82  66  85  65 /  10   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  67  86  65 /  10   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  67  90  65 /  10   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  84  67  87  66 /  10   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  67  88  67 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  69  90  68 /  10  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  85  67  89  66 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 200119
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
819 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY THIS EVENING DUE TO
LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.


58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. A REASONABLE
CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA LATER TONIGHT...THEN IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING.

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.

88


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

EARLIER UPDATE STILL ON TRACK AS ACTIVITY DID DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT MORE IN COVERAGE THAN
EXPECTED AS THE WEDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WEDGE SLIDE WEST BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. WHAT THIS
SHOULD MEAN FOR THE AREA WOULD BE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BY THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE
BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE DRY SLOT DURING
THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. ON SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
CONVENTIONAL COLD FRONT SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT REMAINS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY BEGIN TO FEEL
MORE LIKE FALL AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY MORNING.
A FEW COOLER SPOTS MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH.

EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING BACK MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE EURO KEEPS THE
AREA DRY...BUT WITH EASTERLY FLOW THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALWAYS A GOOD BET.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  83  64  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  82  66  85  65 /  10   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  67  86  65 /  10   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  67  90  65 /  10   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  84  67  87  66 /  10   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  67  88  67 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  69  90  68 /  10  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  85  67  89  66 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 200052
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
752 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
TO THE FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING THAT ALL OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS
ENDED DUE TO LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITIES. CLOUD
COVER WAS ALSO DECREASING AND WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN FCST ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE IT
LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT COMING UP.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 617 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER TROF IS OVER THE SERN US WHILE A SFC
CDFNT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WERE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM.
WILL KEEP VCSH UNTIL 01Z AT KMSL AND 02Z AT KHSV. OTHERWISE EXCEPT
FOR MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 154 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MOISTENING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH
DEW POINT TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE L-M60S. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
L-M80S, ML-CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN EASTERN AL ALONG A MODEST CONVERGENCE
ZONE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST S OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WILL MONITOR TRENDS, BUT ATTM, WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
"TONIGHT" FORECAST AFTER 00Z. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS (L-M60S). PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODERATE UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY WILL SHIFT INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. THE NAM INDICATES SOME SPOT SHRA AND STORMS
AGAIN, BUT THE POP SHOULD BE 10 PCT OR LESS, SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL
SPEED MAX DROP FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS.
TIMING VARIES BY A FEW HOURS (FASTER GFS/SLOWER NAM), SO HAVE OPTED
TO COMPROMISE WITH A CHC POP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
WEAK BULK SHEAR, SO PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR,
BUT OVERALL, NOT CONCERNED FOR SEVERE WX.

FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE NECESSARY WITH A PERIOD OF FINE
WEATHER THRU NEXT WEEK. A CP HIGH IS REINFORCED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AND
DRIER STREAMFLOW, ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK. MOIST STREAMLINES MAY NOT
REACH OUR AREA UNTIL D8-9, SO A DRY FORECAST IS BEING PUBLISHED.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 200052
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
752 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
TO THE FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING THAT ALL OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS
ENDED DUE TO LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITIES. CLOUD
COVER WAS ALSO DECREASING AND WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN FCST ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE IT
LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT COMING UP.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 617 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER TROF IS OVER THE SERN US WHILE A SFC
CDFNT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WERE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM.
WILL KEEP VCSH UNTIL 01Z AT KMSL AND 02Z AT KHSV. OTHERWISE EXCEPT
FOR MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 154 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MOISTENING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH
DEW POINT TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE L-M60S. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
L-M80S, ML-CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN EASTERN AL ALONG A MODEST CONVERGENCE
ZONE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST S OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WILL MONITOR TRENDS, BUT ATTM, WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
"TONIGHT" FORECAST AFTER 00Z. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS (L-M60S). PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODERATE UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY WILL SHIFT INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. THE NAM INDICATES SOME SPOT SHRA AND STORMS
AGAIN, BUT THE POP SHOULD BE 10 PCT OR LESS, SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL
SPEED MAX DROP FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS.
TIMING VARIES BY A FEW HOURS (FASTER GFS/SLOWER NAM), SO HAVE OPTED
TO COMPROMISE WITH A CHC POP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
WEAK BULK SHEAR, SO PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR,
BUT OVERALL, NOT CONCERNED FOR SEVERE WX.

FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE NECESSARY WITH A PERIOD OF FINE
WEATHER THRU NEXT WEEK. A CP HIGH IS REINFORCED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AND
DRIER STREAMFLOW, ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK. MOIST STREAMLINES MAY NOT
REACH OUR AREA UNTIL D8-9, SO A DRY FORECAST IS BEING PUBLISHED.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 192347
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER UPDATE STILL ON TRACK AS ACTIVITY DID DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT MORE IN COVERAGE THAN
EXPECTED AS THE WEDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WEDGE SLIDE WEST BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. WHAT THIS
SHOULD MEAN FOR THE AREA WOULD BE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BY THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE
BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE DRY SLOT DURING
THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. ON SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
CONVENTIONAL COLD FRONT SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT REMAINS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY BEGIN TO FEEL
MORE LIKE FALL AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY MORNING.
A FEW COOLER SPOTS MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH.

EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING BACK MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE EURO KEEPS THE
AREA DRY...BUT WITH EASTERLY FLOW THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALWAYS A GOOD BET.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY DIMISHING THIS AFTERNOON. A REASONABLE
CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA LATER TONIGHT...THEN IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING.

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 192341
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
641 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION [20.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL MAINLY IMPACT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AL FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OTHER THAN
LOCALIZED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS NEAR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR COASTAL AREAS...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH AL
STRETCHING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST MS. FURTHER SOUTH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND MOBILE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. FOR INLAND AREAS THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST LATER TODAY WITH A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH BETTER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WHERE  LESS
CLOUDS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY. FOR LATER THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SHIFTING SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND MET AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE...MOSTLY
OVER INLAND AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...[SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...IT WILL BE RAIN-FREE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE AS TWO SURFACE LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A
LARGE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES
EAST INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

AVIATION...[19.18Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.18Z
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY EAST
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GENERATE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OCCURRING
MOSTLY OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET EARLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN FORM A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDWEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  30  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  30  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  30  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  30  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  20  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  30  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  30  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 192341
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
641 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION [20.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL MAINLY IMPACT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AL FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OTHER THAN
LOCALIZED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS NEAR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR COASTAL AREAS...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH AL
STRETCHING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST MS. FURTHER SOUTH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND MOBILE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. FOR INLAND AREAS THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST LATER TODAY WITH A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH BETTER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WHERE  LESS
CLOUDS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY. FOR LATER THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SHIFTING SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND MET AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE...MOSTLY
OVER INLAND AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...[SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...IT WILL BE RAIN-FREE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE AS TWO SURFACE LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A
LARGE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES
EAST INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

AVIATION...[19.18Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.18Z
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY EAST
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GENERATE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OCCURRING
MOSTLY OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET EARLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN FORM A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDWEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  30  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  30  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  30  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  30  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  20  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  30  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  30  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 192341
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
641 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION [20.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL MAINLY IMPACT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AL FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OTHER THAN
LOCALIZED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS NEAR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR COASTAL AREAS...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH AL
STRETCHING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST MS. FURTHER SOUTH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND MOBILE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. FOR INLAND AREAS THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST LATER TODAY WITH A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH BETTER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WHERE  LESS
CLOUDS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY. FOR LATER THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SHIFTING SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND MET AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE...MOSTLY
OVER INLAND AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...[SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...IT WILL BE RAIN-FREE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE AS TWO SURFACE LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A
LARGE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES
EAST INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

AVIATION...[19.18Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.18Z
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY EAST
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GENERATE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OCCURRING
MOSTLY OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET EARLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN FORM A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDWEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  30  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  30  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  30  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  30  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  20  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  30  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  30  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 192341
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
641 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION [20.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL MAINLY IMPACT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AL FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OTHER THAN
LOCALIZED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS NEAR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR COASTAL AREAS...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH AL
STRETCHING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST MS. FURTHER SOUTH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND MOBILE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. FOR INLAND AREAS THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST LATER TODAY WITH A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH BETTER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WHERE  LESS
CLOUDS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY. FOR LATER THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SHIFTING SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND MET AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE...MOSTLY
OVER INLAND AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...[SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...IT WILL BE RAIN-FREE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE AS TWO SURFACE LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A
LARGE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES
EAST INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

AVIATION...[19.18Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.18Z
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY EAST
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GENERATE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OCCURRING
MOSTLY OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET EARLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN FORM A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDWEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  30  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  30  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  30  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  30  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  20  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  30  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  30  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 192317
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
617 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 154 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MOISTENING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH
DEW POINT TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE L-M60S. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
L-M80S, ML-CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN EASTERN AL ALONG A MODEST CONVERGENCE
ZONE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST S OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WILL MONITOR TRENDS, BUT ATTM, WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
"TONIGHT" FORECAST AFTER 00Z. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS (L-M60S). PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODERATE UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY WILL SHIFT INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. THE NAM INDICATES SOME SPOT SHRA AND STORMS
AGAIN, BUT THE POP SHOULD BE 10 PCT OR LESS, SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL
SPEED MAX DROP FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS.
TIMING VARIES BY A FEW HOURS (FASTER GFS/SLOWER NAM), SO HAVE OPTED
TO COMPROMISE WITH A CHC POP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
WEAK BULK SHEAR, SO PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR,
BUT OVERALL, NOT CONCERNED FOR SEVERE WX.

FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE NECESSARY WITH A PERIOD OF FINE
WEATHER THRU NEXT WEEK. A CP HIGH IS REINFORCED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AND
DRIER STREAMFLOW, ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK. MOIST STREAMLINES MAY NOT
REACH OUR AREA UNTIL D8-9, SO A DRY FORECAST IS BEING PUBLISHED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER TROF IS OVER THE SERN US WHILE A SFC
CDFNT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WERE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM.
WILL KEEP VCSH UNTIL 01Z AT KMSL AND 02Z AT KHSV. OTHERWISE EXCEPT
FOR MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 192317
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
617 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 154 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MOISTENING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH
DEW POINT TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE L-M60S. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
L-M80S, ML-CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN EASTERN AL ALONG A MODEST CONVERGENCE
ZONE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST S OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WILL MONITOR TRENDS, BUT ATTM, WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
"TONIGHT" FORECAST AFTER 00Z. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS (L-M60S). PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODERATE UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY WILL SHIFT INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. THE NAM INDICATES SOME SPOT SHRA AND STORMS
AGAIN, BUT THE POP SHOULD BE 10 PCT OR LESS, SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL
SPEED MAX DROP FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS.
TIMING VARIES BY A FEW HOURS (FASTER GFS/SLOWER NAM), SO HAVE OPTED
TO COMPROMISE WITH A CHC POP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
WEAK BULK SHEAR, SO PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR,
BUT OVERALL, NOT CONCERNED FOR SEVERE WX.

FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE NECESSARY WITH A PERIOD OF FINE
WEATHER THRU NEXT WEEK. A CP HIGH IS REINFORCED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AND
DRIER STREAMFLOW, ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK. MOIST STREAMLINES MAY NOT
REACH OUR AREA UNTIL D8-9, SO A DRY FORECAST IS BEING PUBLISHED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER TROF IS OVER THE SERN US WHILE A SFC
CDFNT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WERE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM.
WILL KEEP VCSH UNTIL 01Z AT KMSL AND 02Z AT KHSV. OTHERWISE EXCEPT
FOR MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 192317
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
617 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 154 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MOISTENING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH
DEW POINT TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE L-M60S. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
L-M80S, ML-CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN EASTERN AL ALONG A MODEST CONVERGENCE
ZONE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST S OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WILL MONITOR TRENDS, BUT ATTM, WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
"TONIGHT" FORECAST AFTER 00Z. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS (L-M60S). PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODERATE UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY WILL SHIFT INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. THE NAM INDICATES SOME SPOT SHRA AND STORMS
AGAIN, BUT THE POP SHOULD BE 10 PCT OR LESS, SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL
SPEED MAX DROP FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS.
TIMING VARIES BY A FEW HOURS (FASTER GFS/SLOWER NAM), SO HAVE OPTED
TO COMPROMISE WITH A CHC POP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
WEAK BULK SHEAR, SO PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR,
BUT OVERALL, NOT CONCERNED FOR SEVERE WX.

FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE NECESSARY WITH A PERIOD OF FINE
WEATHER THRU NEXT WEEK. A CP HIGH IS REINFORCED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AND
DRIER STREAMFLOW, ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK. MOIST STREAMLINES MAY NOT
REACH OUR AREA UNTIL D8-9, SO A DRY FORECAST IS BEING PUBLISHED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER TROF IS OVER THE SERN US WHILE A SFC
CDFNT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WERE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM.
WILL KEEP VCSH UNTIL 01Z AT KMSL AND 02Z AT KHSV. OTHERWISE EXCEPT
FOR MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 192317
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
617 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 154 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MOISTENING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH
DEW POINT TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE L-M60S. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
L-M80S, ML-CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN EASTERN AL ALONG A MODEST CONVERGENCE
ZONE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST S OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WILL MONITOR TRENDS, BUT ATTM, WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
"TONIGHT" FORECAST AFTER 00Z. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS (L-M60S). PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODERATE UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY WILL SHIFT INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. THE NAM INDICATES SOME SPOT SHRA AND STORMS
AGAIN, BUT THE POP SHOULD BE 10 PCT OR LESS, SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL
SPEED MAX DROP FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS.
TIMING VARIES BY A FEW HOURS (FASTER GFS/SLOWER NAM), SO HAVE OPTED
TO COMPROMISE WITH A CHC POP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
WEAK BULK SHEAR, SO PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR,
BUT OVERALL, NOT CONCERNED FOR SEVERE WX.

FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE NECESSARY WITH A PERIOD OF FINE
WEATHER THRU NEXT WEEK. A CP HIGH IS REINFORCED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AND
DRIER STREAMFLOW, ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK. MOIST STREAMLINES MAY NOT
REACH OUR AREA UNTIL D8-9, SO A DRY FORECAST IS BEING PUBLISHED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER TROF IS OVER THE SERN US WHILE A SFC
CDFNT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WERE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM.
WILL KEEP VCSH UNTIL 01Z AT KMSL AND 02Z AT KHSV. OTHERWISE EXCEPT
FOR MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 192111
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH AL
STRETCHING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST MS. FURTHER SOUTH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND MOBILE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. FOR INLAND AREAS THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST LATER TODAY WITH A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH BETTER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WHERE  LESS
CLOUDS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY. FOR LATER THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SHIFTING SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND MET AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE...MOSTLY
OVER INLAND AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...[SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...IT WILL BE RAIN-FREE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE AS TWO SURFACE LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A
LARGE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES
EAST INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

&&

.AVIATION...[19.18Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.18Z
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY EAST
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GENERATE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OCCURRING
MOSTLY OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET EARLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN FORM A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDWEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  30  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  30  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  30  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  30  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  20  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  30  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  30  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 192111
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH AL
STRETCHING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST MS. FURTHER SOUTH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND MOBILE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. FOR INLAND AREAS THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST LATER TODAY WITH A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH BETTER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WHERE  LESS
CLOUDS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY. FOR LATER THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SHIFTING SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND MET AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE...MOSTLY
OVER INLAND AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...[SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...IT WILL BE RAIN-FREE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE AS TWO SURFACE LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A
LARGE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES
EAST INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

&&

.AVIATION...[19.18Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.18Z
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY EAST
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GENERATE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OCCURRING
MOSTLY OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET EARLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN FORM A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDWEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  30  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  30  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  30  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  30  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  20  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  30  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  30  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 191923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER UPDATE STILL ON TRACK AS ACTIVITY DID DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT MORE IN COVERAGE THAN
EXPECTED AS THE WEDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WEDGE SLIDE WEST BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. WHAT THIS
SHOULD MEAN FOR THE AREA WOULD BE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BY THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE
BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE DRY SLOT DURING
THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. ON SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
CONVENTIONAL COLD FRONT SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT REMAINS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY BEGIN TO FEEL
MORE LIKE FALL AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY MORNING.
A FEW COOLER SPOTS MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH.

EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING BACK MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE EURO KEEPS THE
AREA DRY...BUT WITH EASTERLY FLOW THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALWAYS A GOOD BET.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...IN AND
AROUND ANB. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES WEST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE A BIT
DIFFERENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL THERE BE LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG? BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT MGM/TOI AND PERHAPS ANB.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  83  64  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  82  66  85  65 /  20   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  67  86  65 /  20   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  67  90  65 /  20   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  84  67  87  66 /  30   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  67  88  67 /  20  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  69  90  68 /  20  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  85  67  89  66 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 191923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER UPDATE STILL ON TRACK AS ACTIVITY DID DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT MORE IN COVERAGE THAN
EXPECTED AS THE WEDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WEDGE SLIDE WEST BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. WHAT THIS
SHOULD MEAN FOR THE AREA WOULD BE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BY THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE
BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE DRY SLOT DURING
THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. ON SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
CONVENTIONAL COLD FRONT SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT REMAINS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY BEGIN TO FEEL
MORE LIKE FALL AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY MORNING.
A FEW COOLER SPOTS MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH.

EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING BACK MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE EURO KEEPS THE
AREA DRY...BUT WITH EASTERLY FLOW THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALWAYS A GOOD BET.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...IN AND
AROUND ANB. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES WEST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE A BIT
DIFFERENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL THERE BE LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG? BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT MGM/TOI AND PERHAPS ANB.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  83  64  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  82  66  85  65 /  20   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  67  86  65 /  20   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  67  90  65 /  20   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  84  67  87  66 /  30   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  67  88  67 /  20  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  69  90  68 /  20  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  85  67  89  66 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 191923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER UPDATE STILL ON TRACK AS ACTIVITY DID DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT MORE IN COVERAGE THAN
EXPECTED AS THE WEDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WEDGE SLIDE WEST BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. WHAT THIS
SHOULD MEAN FOR THE AREA WOULD BE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BY THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE
BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE DRY SLOT DURING
THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. ON SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
CONVENTIONAL COLD FRONT SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT REMAINS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY BEGIN TO FEEL
MORE LIKE FALL AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY MORNING.
A FEW COOLER SPOTS MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH.

EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING BACK MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE EURO KEEPS THE
AREA DRY...BUT WITH EASTERLY FLOW THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALWAYS A GOOD BET.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...IN AND
AROUND ANB. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES WEST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE A BIT
DIFFERENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL THERE BE LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG? BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT MGM/TOI AND PERHAPS ANB.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  83  64  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  82  66  85  65 /  20   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  67  86  65 /  20   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  67  90  65 /  20   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  84  67  87  66 /  30   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  67  88  67 /  20  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  69  90  68 /  20  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  85  67  89  66 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 191923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER UPDATE STILL ON TRACK AS ACTIVITY DID DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT MORE IN COVERAGE THAN
EXPECTED AS THE WEDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WEDGE SLIDE WEST BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. WHAT THIS
SHOULD MEAN FOR THE AREA WOULD BE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BY THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE
BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE DRY SLOT DURING
THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. ON SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
CONVENTIONAL COLD FRONT SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT REMAINS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY BEGIN TO FEEL
MORE LIKE FALL AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY MORNING.
A FEW COOLER SPOTS MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH.

EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING BACK MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE EURO KEEPS THE
AREA DRY...BUT WITH EASTERLY FLOW THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALWAYS A GOOD BET.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...IN AND
AROUND ANB. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES WEST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE A BIT
DIFFERENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL THERE BE LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG? BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT MGM/TOI AND PERHAPS ANB.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  83  64  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  82  66  85  65 /  20   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  67  86  65 /  20   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  67  90  65 /  20   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  84  67  87  66 /  30   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  67  88  67 /  20  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  69  90  68 /  20  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  85  67  89  66 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 191854
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
154 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MOISTENING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH
DEW POINT TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE L-M60S. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
L-M80S, ML-CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN EASTERN AL ALONG A MODEST CONVERGENCE
ZONE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST S OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WILL MONITOR TRENDS, BUT ATTM, WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
"TONIGHT" FORECAST AFTER 00Z. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS (L-M60S). PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODERATE UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY WILL SHIFT INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. THE NAM INDICATES SOME SPOT SHRA AND STORMS
AGAIN, BUT THE POP SHOULD BE 10 PCT OR LESS, SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL
SPEED MAX DROP FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS.
TIMING VARIES BY A FEW HOURS (FASTER GFS/SLOWER NAM), SO HAVE OPTED
TO COMPROMISE WITH A CHC POP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
WEAK BULK SHEAR, SO PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR,
BUT OVERALL, NOT CONCERNED FOR SEVERE WX.

FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE NECESSARY WITH A PERIOD OF FINE
WEATHER THRU NEXT WEEK. A CP HIGH IS REINFORCED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AND
DRIER STREAMFLOW, ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK. MOIST STREAMLINES MAY NOT
REACH OUR AREA UNTIL D8-9, SO A DRY FORECAST IS BEING PUBLISHED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT
12-15 HOURS. ISOL TO SCT -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL AND
HAVE KEPT VCTS IN THE KMSL TAF. A DROP IN CAT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
TSRA THAT DO OCCUR. FOG AND POSSIBLY A LOW CLOUD DECK MAY REDUCE
CATEGORY TO MVFR TO IFR BTWN 09-13Z. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED MVFR AT
BOTH SITES WITH A SCT015 FOR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    64  87  62  88 /  10  10  10  20
SHOALS        65  87  64  89 /  10  10  10  40
VINEMONT      64  83  64  86 /  10  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  63  85  63  86 /  10  10  10  40
ALBERTVILLE   63  84  60  87 /  10  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    62  87  59  85 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191854
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
154 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MOISTENING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH
DEW POINT TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE L-M60S. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
L-M80S, ML-CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN EASTERN AL ALONG A MODEST CONVERGENCE
ZONE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST S OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WILL MONITOR TRENDS, BUT ATTM, WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
"TONIGHT" FORECAST AFTER 00Z. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS (L-M60S). PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODERATE UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY WILL SHIFT INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. THE NAM INDICATES SOME SPOT SHRA AND STORMS
AGAIN, BUT THE POP SHOULD BE 10 PCT OR LESS, SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL
SPEED MAX DROP FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS.
TIMING VARIES BY A FEW HOURS (FASTER GFS/SLOWER NAM), SO HAVE OPTED
TO COMPROMISE WITH A CHC POP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
WEAK BULK SHEAR, SO PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR,
BUT OVERALL, NOT CONCERNED FOR SEVERE WX.

FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE NECESSARY WITH A PERIOD OF FINE
WEATHER THRU NEXT WEEK. A CP HIGH IS REINFORCED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AND
DRIER STREAMFLOW, ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK. MOIST STREAMLINES MAY NOT
REACH OUR AREA UNTIL D8-9, SO A DRY FORECAST IS BEING PUBLISHED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT
12-15 HOURS. ISOL TO SCT -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL AND
HAVE KEPT VCTS IN THE KMSL TAF. A DROP IN CAT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
TSRA THAT DO OCCUR. FOG AND POSSIBLY A LOW CLOUD DECK MAY REDUCE
CATEGORY TO MVFR TO IFR BTWN 09-13Z. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED MVFR AT
BOTH SITES WITH A SCT015 FOR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    64  87  62  88 /  10  10  10  20
SHOALS        65  87  64  89 /  10  10  10  40
VINEMONT      64  83  64  86 /  10  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  63  85  63  86 /  10  10  10  40
ALBERTVILLE   63  84  60  87 /  10  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    62  87  59  85 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 191812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
112 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE ALREADY THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHEAST...FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO UPDATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
PRESENT THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARIES WE DO
HAVE THE WEDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RICHEST AIRMASS IS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 9 TO 10 PM TIME
FRAME. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE. THOSE ARE THE ONLY TWO AREAS AT THIS TIME THAT MAY
SEE ANY SHOWERS AFTER 7 PM. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY
ADJUST THE MORNING TRENDS.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...IN AND
AROUND ANB. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES WEST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE A BIT
DIFFERENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL THERE BE LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG? BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT MGM/TOI AND PERHAPS ANB.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  84  64  86  62 /  10   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  83  65  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  85  67  87  64 /  10   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  68  90  66 /  10   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  85  66  88  65 /  10   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  84  65  88  66 /  10  10   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  67  90  68 /  10  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  86  65  89  67 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 191812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
112 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE ALREADY THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHEAST...FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO UPDATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
PRESENT THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARIES WE DO
HAVE THE WEDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RICHEST AIRMASS IS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 9 TO 10 PM TIME
FRAME. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE. THOSE ARE THE ONLY TWO AREAS AT THIS TIME THAT MAY
SEE ANY SHOWERS AFTER 7 PM. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY
ADJUST THE MORNING TRENDS.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...IN AND
AROUND ANB. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES WEST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE A BIT
DIFFERENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL THERE BE LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG? BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT MGM/TOI AND PERHAPS ANB.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  84  64  86  62 /  10   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  83  65  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  85  67  87  64 /  10   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  68  90  66 /  10   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  85  66  88  65 /  10   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  84  65  88  66 /  10  10   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  67  90  68 /  10  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  86  65  89  67 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 191812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
112 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE ALREADY THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHEAST...FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO UPDATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
PRESENT THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARIES WE DO
HAVE THE WEDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RICHEST AIRMASS IS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 9 TO 10 PM TIME
FRAME. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE. THOSE ARE THE ONLY TWO AREAS AT THIS TIME THAT MAY
SEE ANY SHOWERS AFTER 7 PM. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY
ADJUST THE MORNING TRENDS.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...IN AND
AROUND ANB. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES WEST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE A BIT
DIFFERENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL THERE BE LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG? BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT MGM/TOI AND PERHAPS ANB.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  84  64  86  62 /  10   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  83  65  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  85  67  87  64 /  10   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  68  90  66 /  10   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  85  66  88  65 /  10   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  84  65  88  66 /  10  10   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  67  90  68 /  10  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  86  65  89  67 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 191812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
112 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE ALREADY THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHEAST...FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO UPDATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
PRESENT THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARIES WE DO
HAVE THE WEDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RICHEST AIRMASS IS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 9 TO 10 PM TIME
FRAME. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE. THOSE ARE THE ONLY TWO AREAS AT THIS TIME THAT MAY
SEE ANY SHOWERS AFTER 7 PM. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY
ADJUST THE MORNING TRENDS.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...IN AND
AROUND ANB. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES WEST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE A BIT
DIFFERENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL THERE BE LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG? BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT MGM/TOI AND PERHAPS ANB.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  84  64  86  62 /  10   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  83  65  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  85  67  87  64 /  10   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  68  90  66 /  10   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  85  66  88  65 /  10   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  84  65  88  66 /  10  10   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  67  90  68 /  10  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  86  65  89  67 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 191758 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1258 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 938 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS NE. AS A RESULT
OF THE WIND SHIFT, AN ILL-DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY WILL EDGE NORTHWARD
FROM CENTRAL AL TOWARDS NORTH ALABAMA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING. THEN, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. RETAINED A NE TO
SW GRADIENT WITH THE POPS WITH HIGHER POPS OVER NW AL AND CULLMAN
COUNTY. A MICROBURST THREAT IS PRESENT AS EVIDENCED BY A INVERTED V
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A THREAT WITH THE HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT (~12-13KFT) AND
WARM MELTING LAYER. HOWEVER, COULD SEE SOME PEA SIZED HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER PULSE-LIKE STORMS.

OTHERWISE, MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER TRENDS REFLECTED BY VIS SATELLITE AND CURRENT
OBS. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW
60S AT FIRST AND THEN RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT
12-15 HOURS. ISOL TO SCT -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL AND
HAVE KEPT VCTS IN THE KMSL TAF. A DROP IN CAT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
TSRA THAT DO OCCUR. FOG AND POSSIBLY A LOW CLOUD DECK MAY REDUCE
CATEGORY TO MVFR TO IFR BTWN 09-13Z. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED MVFR AT
BOTH SITES WITH A SCT015 FOR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 191758 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1258 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 938 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS NE. AS A RESULT
OF THE WIND SHIFT, AN ILL-DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY WILL EDGE NORTHWARD
FROM CENTRAL AL TOWARDS NORTH ALABAMA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING. THEN, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. RETAINED A NE TO
SW GRADIENT WITH THE POPS WITH HIGHER POPS OVER NW AL AND CULLMAN
COUNTY. A MICROBURST THREAT IS PRESENT AS EVIDENCED BY A INVERTED V
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A THREAT WITH THE HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT (~12-13KFT) AND
WARM MELTING LAYER. HOWEVER, COULD SEE SOME PEA SIZED HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER PULSE-LIKE STORMS.

OTHERWISE, MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER TRENDS REFLECTED BY VIS SATELLITE AND CURRENT
OBS. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW
60S AT FIRST AND THEN RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT
12-15 HOURS. ISOL TO SCT -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL AND
HAVE KEPT VCTS IN THE KMSL TAF. A DROP IN CAT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
TSRA THAT DO OCCUR. FOG AND POSSIBLY A LOW CLOUD DECK MAY REDUCE
CATEGORY TO MVFR TO IFR BTWN 09-13Z. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED MVFR AT
BOTH SITES WITH A SCT015 FOR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 191502
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1002 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE ALREADY THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHEAST...FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO UPDATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
PRESENT THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARIES WE DO
HAVE THE WEDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RICHEST AIRMASS IS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 9 TO 10 PM TIME
FRAME. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE. THOSE ARE THE ONLY TWO AREAS AT THIS TIME THAT MAY
SEE ANY SHOWERS AFTER 7 PM. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY
ADJUST THE MORNING TRENDS.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST TODAY AND PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EQUAL BUT LOW CHANCES AT ALL SITES.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY
MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
LOCATIONS. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS TODAY.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DON`T SHOW A LOT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT I GOTTA THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

IT SEEMS THAT WE`VE BEEN ANTICIPATING A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...BUT AS THEY APPROACH THEY`VE BEEN
STALLING OUT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
HOWEVER...I AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE ONE TO
FINALLY USHER IN SOME MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  64  84  64  86 /  30  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    85  65  83  65  86 /  40  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  85  67  87 /  30  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  68  88  68  90 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      88  66  85  66  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      88  65  84  65  88 /  40  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  90  67  86  67  90 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        90  65  86  65  89 /  30  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 191502
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1002 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE ALREADY THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHEAST...FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO UPDATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
PRESENT THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARIES WE DO
HAVE THE WEDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RICHEST AIRMASS IS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 9 TO 10 PM TIME
FRAME. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE. THOSE ARE THE ONLY TWO AREAS AT THIS TIME THAT MAY
SEE ANY SHOWERS AFTER 7 PM. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY
ADJUST THE MORNING TRENDS.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST TODAY AND PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EQUAL BUT LOW CHANCES AT ALL SITES.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY
MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
LOCATIONS. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS TODAY.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DON`T SHOW A LOT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT I GOTTA THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

IT SEEMS THAT WE`VE BEEN ANTICIPATING A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...BUT AS THEY APPROACH THEY`VE BEEN
STALLING OUT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
HOWEVER...I AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE ONE TO
FINALLY USHER IN SOME MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  64  84  64  86 /  30  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    85  65  83  65  86 /  40  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  85  67  87 /  30  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  68  88  68  90 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      88  66  85  66  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      88  65  84  65  88 /  40  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  90  67  86  67  90 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        90  65  86  65  89 /  30  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 191438 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
938 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR SKY COVER AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS NE. AS A RESULT
OF THE WIND SHIFT, AN ILL-DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY WILL EDGE NORTHWARD
FROM CENTRAL AL TOWARDS NORTH ALABAMA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING. THEN, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. RETAINED A NE TO
SW GRADIENT WITH THE POPS WITH HIGHER POPS OVER NW AL AND CULLMAN
COUNTY. A MICROBURST THREAT IS PRESENT AS EVIDENCED BY A INVERTED V
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A THREAT WITH THE HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT (~12-13KFT) AND
WARM MELTING LAYER. HOWEVER, COULD SEE SOME PEA SIZED HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER PULSE-LIKE STORMS.

OTHERWISE, MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER TRENDS REFLECTED BY VIS SATELLITE AND CURRENT
OBS. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW
60S AT FIRST AND THEN RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES AT KMSL. SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR
BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY, ENDING LATE THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
WILL ONLY INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS WITH THIS ISSUANCE (2500FT).

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 191438 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
938 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR SKY COVER AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS NE. AS A RESULT
OF THE WIND SHIFT, AN ILL-DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY WILL EDGE NORTHWARD
FROM CENTRAL AL TOWARDS NORTH ALABAMA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING. THEN, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. RETAINED A NE TO
SW GRADIENT WITH THE POPS WITH HIGHER POPS OVER NW AL AND CULLMAN
COUNTY. A MICROBURST THREAT IS PRESENT AS EVIDENCED BY A INVERTED V
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A THREAT WITH THE HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT (~12-13KFT) AND
WARM MELTING LAYER. HOWEVER, COULD SEE SOME PEA SIZED HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER PULSE-LIKE STORMS.

OTHERWISE, MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER TRENDS REFLECTED BY VIS SATELLITE AND CURRENT
OBS. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW
60S AT FIRST AND THEN RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES AT KMSL. SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR
BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY, ENDING LATE THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
WILL ONLY INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS WITH THIS ISSUANCE (2500FT).

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 191208 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
426 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH
EARLY MORNING WILL BE CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY ON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR FROM
500 MB AND ABOVE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK
NORTH IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE WHERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF DEWPOINTS IS LIKELY TO THE NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY...WILL CAP RAIN CHANCES AT 20-30%...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BE ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND AND
AROUND 70 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. 34/JFB

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACCORDING TO SHORT RANGE GFS...NAM...AND
EURO CALCULATIONS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND DEVELOP
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ITS OFFSHORE REGIONS
EARLY SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY OVER TEXAS FROM THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION KEEPING
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT REGION SOUTHWEST TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING US LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S INLAND
TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TO DRIFT AROUND
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. DRY NORTH WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE RULED OUT
NEAR THE SEABREEZE BUT OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH IN THE MOS
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR AND INCREASING STABILITY
FROM THE PHYSICAL CALCULATIONS TO KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LIFTED INDEX IS ABOUT +1.0 TO +1.5 OR SO CAUSING US TO
BELIEVE IT WOULD BE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AT LEAST. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 INLAND. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES
EAST INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. STORM CHANCES DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES BACK SOUTH. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...BECOMING PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG THE COAST OR JUST
OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  88  70  89 /  30  20  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   89  71  86  71  87 /  30  20  10  10  10
DESTIN      88  72  85  73  86 /  30  20  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   90  65  87  65  90 /  20  20  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  90  67  89  65  90 /  20  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  65  88  66  90 /  20  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   90  64  87  64  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 191208 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
426 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH
EARLY MORNING WILL BE CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY ON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR FROM
500 MB AND ABOVE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK
NORTH IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE WHERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF DEWPOINTS IS LIKELY TO THE NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY...WILL CAP RAIN CHANCES AT 20-30%...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BE ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND AND
AROUND 70 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. 34/JFB

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACCORDING TO SHORT RANGE GFS...NAM...AND
EURO CALCULATIONS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND DEVELOP
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ITS OFFSHORE REGIONS
EARLY SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY OVER TEXAS FROM THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION KEEPING
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT REGION SOUTHWEST TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING US LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S INLAND
TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TO DRIFT AROUND
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. DRY NORTH WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE RULED OUT
NEAR THE SEABREEZE BUT OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH IN THE MOS
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR AND INCREASING STABILITY
FROM THE PHYSICAL CALCULATIONS TO KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LIFTED INDEX IS ABOUT +1.0 TO +1.5 OR SO CAUSING US TO
BELIEVE IT WOULD BE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AT LEAST. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 INLAND. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES
EAST INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. STORM CHANCES DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES BACK SOUTH. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...BECOMING PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG THE COAST OR JUST
OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  88  70  89 /  30  20  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   89  71  86  71  87 /  30  20  10  10  10
DESTIN      88  72  85  73  86 /  30  20  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   90  65  87  65  90 /  20  20  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  90  67  89  65  90 /  20  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  65  88  66  90 /  20  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   90  64  87  64  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KBMX 191137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATED...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURPRISING AMOUNT OF RAIN IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA LAST NIGHT.
WELL...MAYBE NOT SO SURPRISING IF WE HAD FOLLOWED THE NAM`S
EARLIER FORECASTS. AND PERHAPS THAT WOULD BE THE BEST STRATEGY ON
THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD.

LOOKS LIKE THE SHORTWAVE (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWERS LAST NIGHT IS NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE`S A FEW LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND TCL AND BHM...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE. MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING THE NAM) SUGGESTS THAT ANY
RAIN AT ALL TODAY SHOULD BE OF LESS COVERAGE THAN ON THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (10-20 PERCENT) IN AREAWIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DON`T SHOW A LOT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT I GOTTA THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

IT SEEMS THAT WE`VE BEEN ANTICIPATING A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...BUT AS THEY APPROACH THEY`VE BEEN
STALLING OUT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
HOWEVER...I AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE ONE TO
FINALLY USHER IN SOME MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST TODAY AND PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EQUAL BUT LOW CHANCES AT ALL SITES.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY
MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
LOCATIONS. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS TODAY.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  64  84  64  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    85  65  83  65  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  85  67  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  68  88  68  90 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      88  66  85  66  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      88  65  84  65  88 /  20  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  90  67  86  67  90 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        90  65  86  65  89 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 191137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATED...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURPRISING AMOUNT OF RAIN IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA LAST NIGHT.
WELL...MAYBE NOT SO SURPRISING IF WE HAD FOLLOWED THE NAM`S
EARLIER FORECASTS. AND PERHAPS THAT WOULD BE THE BEST STRATEGY ON
THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD.

LOOKS LIKE THE SHORTWAVE (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWERS LAST NIGHT IS NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE`S A FEW LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND TCL AND BHM...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE. MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING THE NAM) SUGGESTS THAT ANY
RAIN AT ALL TODAY SHOULD BE OF LESS COVERAGE THAN ON THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (10-20 PERCENT) IN AREAWIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DON`T SHOW A LOT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT I GOTTA THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

IT SEEMS THAT WE`VE BEEN ANTICIPATING A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...BUT AS THEY APPROACH THEY`VE BEEN
STALLING OUT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
HOWEVER...I AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE ONE TO
FINALLY USHER IN SOME MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST TODAY AND PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EQUAL BUT LOW CHANCES AT ALL SITES.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY
MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
LOCATIONS. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS TODAY.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  64  84  64  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    85  65  83  65  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  85  67  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  68  88  68  90 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      88  66  85  66  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      88  65  84  65  88 /  20  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  90  67  86  67  90 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        90  65  86  65  89 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 191119 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE LAST IN A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL VORTICES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT REMNANTS OF EVENING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH DEVELOPED YESTERDAY EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHED THE REGION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGESTING THAT THE SFC-850MB FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY -- BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW-TO-
SE THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SLOWLY TODAY WITH WINDS ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTH AS A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT COVERAGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHERE INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID
60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD RESULTING IN HIGHER SB INSTABILITY. THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS
RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MORE UNIFORM AND IN THE LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AMPLIFIED WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY CLOSE OFF
BEFORE SHEARING APART AND LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A
FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA
TOMORROW IN THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT OVERALL HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MIXING
THAT OCCURS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY EVENING IN
PROXIMITY TO SURFACE RIDGE MAY ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. AS THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN BASE OF
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD...EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT AXIS ACROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TRANSLATING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A BROAD
REGION OF SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONIC AXIS OF A
100-120 KT UPPER JET WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 00-06Z MONDAY.

THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY BUT
SHOULD NOT DISRUPT VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID
40S MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING LOW TEMPERATURES IN LOWER 50S...AS
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO CUTOFF ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THIS LOW EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES AT KMSL. SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR
BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY, ENDING LATE THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
WILL ONLY INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS WITH THIS ISSUANCE (2500FT).

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191119 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE LAST IN A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL VORTICES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT REMNANTS OF EVENING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH DEVELOPED YESTERDAY EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHED THE REGION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGESTING THAT THE SFC-850MB FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY -- BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW-TO-
SE THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SLOWLY TODAY WITH WINDS ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTH AS A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT COVERAGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHERE INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID
60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD RESULTING IN HIGHER SB INSTABILITY. THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS
RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MORE UNIFORM AND IN THE LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AMPLIFIED WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY CLOSE OFF
BEFORE SHEARING APART AND LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A
FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA
TOMORROW IN THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT OVERALL HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MIXING
THAT OCCURS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY EVENING IN
PROXIMITY TO SURFACE RIDGE MAY ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. AS THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN BASE OF
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD...EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT AXIS ACROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TRANSLATING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A BROAD
REGION OF SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONIC AXIS OF A
100-120 KT UPPER JET WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 00-06Z MONDAY.

THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY BUT
SHOULD NOT DISRUPT VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID
40S MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING LOW TEMPERATURES IN LOWER 50S...AS
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO CUTOFF ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THIS LOW EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES AT KMSL. SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR
BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY, ENDING LATE THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
WILL ONLY INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS WITH THIS ISSUANCE (2500FT).

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 191017
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
517 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE LAST IN A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL VORTICES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT REMNANTS OF EVENING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH DEVELOPED YESTERDAY EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHED THE REGION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGESTING THAT THE SFC-850MB FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY -- BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW-TO-
SE THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SLOWLY TODAY WITH WINDS ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTH AS A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT COVERAGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHERE INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID
60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD RESULTING IN HIGHER SB INSTABILITY. THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS
RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MORE UNIFORM AND IN THE LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AMPLIFIED WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY CLOSE OFF
BEFORE SHEARING APART AND LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A
FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA
TOMORROW IN THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT OVERALL HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MIXING
THAT OCCURS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY EVENING IN
PROXIMITY TO SURFACE RIDGE MAY ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. AS THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN BASE OF
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD...EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT AXIS ACROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TRANSLATING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A BROAD
REGION OF SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONIC AXIS OF A
100-120 KT UPPER JET WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 00-06Z MONDAY.

THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY BUT
SHOULD NOT DISRUPT VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID
40S MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING LOW TEMPERATURES IN LOWER 50S...AS
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO CUTOFF ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THIS LOW EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 07/08Z WHEN MVFR FOG
IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WHEN FOG
DISSIPATES ~13Z. LIGHT E/ESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    87  65  87  64 /  20  10  10  10
SHOALS        87  65  88  63 /  30  20  10  10
VINEMONT      86  65  85  62 /  30  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  85  63  85  62 /  20  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   87  63  86  62 /  20  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    86  63  85  61 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 191017
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
517 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE LAST IN A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL VORTICES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT REMNANTS OF EVENING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH DEVELOPED YESTERDAY EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHED THE REGION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGESTING THAT THE SFC-850MB FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY -- BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW-TO-
SE THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SLOWLY TODAY WITH WINDS ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTH AS A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT COVERAGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHERE INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID
60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD RESULTING IN HIGHER SB INSTABILITY. THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS
RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MORE UNIFORM AND IN THE LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AMPLIFIED WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY CLOSE OFF
BEFORE SHEARING APART AND LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A
FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA
TOMORROW IN THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT OVERALL HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MIXING
THAT OCCURS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY EVENING IN
PROXIMITY TO SURFACE RIDGE MAY ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. AS THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN BASE OF
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD...EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT AXIS ACROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TRANSLATING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A BROAD
REGION OF SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONIC AXIS OF A
100-120 KT UPPER JET WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 00-06Z MONDAY.

THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY BUT
SHOULD NOT DISRUPT VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID
40S MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING LOW TEMPERATURES IN LOWER 50S...AS
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO CUTOFF ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THIS LOW EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 07/08Z WHEN MVFR FOG
IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WHEN FOG
DISSIPATES ~13Z. LIGHT E/ESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    87  65  87  64 /  20  10  10  10
SHOALS        87  65  88  63 /  30  20  10  10
VINEMONT      86  65  85  62 /  30  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  85  63  85  62 /  20  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   87  63  86  62 /  20  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    86  63  85  61 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 190926
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
426 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH
EARLY MORNING WILL BE CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY ON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR FROM
500 MB AND ABOVE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK
NORTH IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE WHERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF DEWPOINTS IS LIKELY TO THE NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY...WILL CAP RAIN CHANCES AT 20-30%...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BE ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND AND
AROUND 70 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. 34/JFB

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACCORDING TO SHORT RANGE GFS...NAM...AND
EURO CALCULATIONS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND DEVELOP
INTO A CLOSED LOW AND IN OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ITS OFFSHORE
REGIONS EARLY SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY OVER TEXAS FROM THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION
KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT REGION SOUTHWEST TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING US LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S INLAND
TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TO DRIFT AROUND
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. DRY NORTH WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE RULED OUT
NEAR THE SEABREEZE BUT OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH IN THE MOS
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR AND INCREASING STABILITY
FROM THE PHYSICAL CALCULATIONS TO KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LIFTED INDEX IS ABOUT +1.0 TO +1.5 OR SO CAUSING US TO
BELIEVE IT WOULD BE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AT LEAST. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 INLAND. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES EAST
INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF A
PERTURBATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. STORM CHANCES DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES BACK SOUTH. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...BECOMING PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG THE COAST OR JUST
OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  88  70  89 /  30  20  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   89  71  86  71  87 /  30  20  10  10  10
DESTIN      88  72  85  73  86 /  30  20  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   90  65  87  65  90 /  20  20  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  90  67  89  65  90 /  20  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  65  88  66  90 /  20  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   90  64  87  64  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 190926
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
426 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH
EARLY MORNING WILL BE CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY ON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR FROM
500 MB AND ABOVE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK
NORTH IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE WHERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF DEWPOINTS IS LIKELY TO THE NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY...WILL CAP RAIN CHANCES AT 20-30%...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BE ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND AND
AROUND 70 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. 34/JFB

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACCORDING TO SHORT RANGE GFS...NAM...AND
EURO CALCULATIONS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND DEVELOP
INTO A CLOSED LOW AND IN OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ITS OFFSHORE
REGIONS EARLY SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY OVER TEXAS FROM THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION
KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT REGION SOUTHWEST TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING US LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S INLAND
TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TO DRIFT AROUND
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. DRY NORTH WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE RULED OUT
NEAR THE SEABREEZE BUT OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH IN THE MOS
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR AND INCREASING STABILITY
FROM THE PHYSICAL CALCULATIONS TO KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LIFTED INDEX IS ABOUT +1.0 TO +1.5 OR SO CAUSING US TO
BELIEVE IT WOULD BE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AT LEAST. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 INLAND. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES EAST
INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF A
PERTURBATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. STORM CHANCES DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES BACK SOUTH. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...BECOMING PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG THE COAST OR JUST
OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  88  70  89 /  30  20  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   89  71  86  71  87 /  30  20  10  10  10
DESTIN      88  72  85  73  86 /  30  20  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   90  65  87  65  90 /  20  20  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  90  67  89  65  90 /  20  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  65  88  66  90 /  20  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   90  64  87  64  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 190926
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
426 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH
EARLY MORNING WILL BE CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY ON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR FROM
500 MB AND ABOVE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK
NORTH IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE WHERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF DEWPOINTS IS LIKELY TO THE NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY...WILL CAP RAIN CHANCES AT 20-30%...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BE ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND AND
AROUND 70 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. 34/JFB

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACCORDING TO SHORT RANGE GFS...NAM...AND
EURO CALCULATIONS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND DEVELOP
INTO A CLOSED LOW AND IN OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ITS OFFSHORE
REGIONS EARLY SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY OVER TEXAS FROM THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION
KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT REGION SOUTHWEST TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING US LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S INLAND
TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TO DRIFT AROUND
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. DRY NORTH WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE RULED OUT
NEAR THE SEABREEZE BUT OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH IN THE MOS
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR AND INCREASING STABILITY
FROM THE PHYSICAL CALCULATIONS TO KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LIFTED INDEX IS ABOUT +1.0 TO +1.5 OR SO CAUSING US TO
BELIEVE IT WOULD BE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AT LEAST. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 INLAND. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES EAST
INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF A
PERTURBATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. STORM CHANCES DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES BACK SOUTH. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...BECOMING PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG THE COAST OR JUST
OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  88  70  89 /  30  20  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   89  71  86  71  87 /  30  20  10  10  10
DESTIN      88  72  85  73  86 /  30  20  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   90  65  87  65  90 /  20  20  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  90  67  89  65  90 /  20  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  65  88  66  90 /  20  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   90  64  87  64  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 190926
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
426 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH
EARLY MORNING WILL BE CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY ON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR FROM
500 MB AND ABOVE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK
NORTH IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE WHERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF DEWPOINTS IS LIKELY TO THE NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY...WILL CAP RAIN CHANCES AT 20-30%...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BE ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND AND
AROUND 70 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. 34/JFB

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACCORDING TO SHORT RANGE GFS...NAM...AND
EURO CALCULATIONS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND DEVELOP
INTO A CLOSED LOW AND IN OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ITS OFFSHORE
REGIONS EARLY SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY OVER TEXAS FROM THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION
KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT REGION SOUTHWEST TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING US LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S INLAND
TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TO DRIFT AROUND
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. DRY NORTH WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE RULED OUT
NEAR THE SEABREEZE BUT OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH IN THE MOS
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR AND INCREASING STABILITY
FROM THE PHYSICAL CALCULATIONS TO KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LIFTED INDEX IS ABOUT +1.0 TO +1.5 OR SO CAUSING US TO
BELIEVE IT WOULD BE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AT LEAST. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 INLAND. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES EAST
INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF A
PERTURBATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. STORM CHANCES DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES BACK SOUTH. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...BECOMING PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG THE COAST OR JUST
OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  88  70  89 /  30  20  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   89  71  86  71  87 /  30  20  10  10  10
DESTIN      88  72  85  73  86 /  30  20  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   90  65  87  65  90 /  20  20  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  90  67  89  65  90 /  20  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  65  88  66  90 /  20  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   90  64  87  64  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 190923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURPRISING AMOUNT OF RAIN IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA LAST NIGHT.
WELL...MAYBE NOT SO SURPRISING IF WE HAD FOLLOWED THE NAM`S
EARLIER FORECASTS. AND PERHAPS THAT WOULD BE THE BEST STRATEGY ON
THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD.

LOOKS LIKE THE SHORTWAVE (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWERS LAST NIGHT IS NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE`S A FEW LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND TCL AND BHM...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE. MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING THE NAM) SUGGESTS THAT ANY
RAIN AT ALL TODAY SHOULD BE OF LESS COVERAGE THAN ON THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (10-20 PERCENT) IN AREAWIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DON`T SHOW A LOT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT I GOTTA THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

IT SEEMS THAT WE`VE BEEN ANTICIPATING A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...BUT AS THEY APPROACH THEY`VE BEEN
STALLING OUT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
HOWEVER...I AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE ONE TO
FINALLY USHER IN SOME MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS WEST ALABAMA NEAR TCL.
WILL LEAVE VCSH IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATES. SOME PATCHY BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TCL LATER TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AND PROVIDE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ANB AND INCLUDED
VC WORDING BEGINNING 18Z. SOME CONVECTION COULD PUSH AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  64  84  64  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    85  65  83  65  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  85  67  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  68  88  68  90 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      88  66  85  66  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      88  65  84  65  88 /  20  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  90  67  86  67  90 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        90  65  86  65  89 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 190923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURPRISING AMOUNT OF RAIN IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA LAST NIGHT.
WELL...MAYBE NOT SO SURPRISING IF WE HAD FOLLOWED THE NAM`S
EARLIER FORECASTS. AND PERHAPS THAT WOULD BE THE BEST STRATEGY ON
THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD.

LOOKS LIKE THE SHORTWAVE (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWERS LAST NIGHT IS NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE`S A FEW LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND TCL AND BHM...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE. MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING THE NAM) SUGGESTS THAT ANY
RAIN AT ALL TODAY SHOULD BE OF LESS COVERAGE THAN ON THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (10-20 PERCENT) IN AREAWIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DON`T SHOW A LOT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT I GOTTA THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

IT SEEMS THAT WE`VE BEEN ANTICIPATING A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...BUT AS THEY APPROACH THEY`VE BEEN
STALLING OUT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
HOWEVER...I AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE ONE TO
FINALLY USHER IN SOME MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS WEST ALABAMA NEAR TCL.
WILL LEAVE VCSH IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATES. SOME PATCHY BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TCL LATER TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AND PROVIDE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ANB AND INCLUDED
VC WORDING BEGINNING 18Z. SOME CONVECTION COULD PUSH AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  64  84  64  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    85  65  83  65  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  85  67  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  68  88  68  90 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      88  66  85  66  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      88  65  84  65  88 /  20  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  90  67  86  67  90 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        90  65  86  65  89 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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