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000
FXUS64 KHUN 181752 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1252 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1109 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
WEDGE RIDGE IS STILL SITUATED OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WHILE A
GULF LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST UP INTO AL..GA AND FL. ANOTHER SMALL TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN TODAY WITH THE SLIGHT CAD IN PLACE ALONG
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH THE
DAY /AS SEEN ON VIS SATELLITE/. THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT PRECIP WILL MAINLY CATCH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
INCREASED THE POPS AND QPF BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LEFT FOG OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY THAT CLOUD COVER WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND BREEZY BY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181752 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1252 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1109 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
WEDGE RIDGE IS STILL SITUATED OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WHILE A
GULF LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST UP INTO AL..GA AND FL. ANOTHER SMALL TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN TODAY WITH THE SLIGHT CAD IN PLACE ALONG
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH THE
DAY /AS SEEN ON VIS SATELLITE/. THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT PRECIP WILL MAINLY CATCH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
INCREASED THE POPS AND QPF BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LEFT FOG OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY THAT CLOUD COVER WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND BREEZY BY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 181749 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM THE AREA. SOME
FOG/POST FRONTAL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT AM EXPECTING
CL3EAR SKIES FOR MOST OF SATURDAY.

/16

&&
.UPDATE...WAVE OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. ORGANIZED RAINS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
MORE EAST...BEING MORE CONFINED OVER COVINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA TO
ACROSS SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS REQUIRES AN UPDATE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH
REMOVES THE WESTERN PORTIONS WHERE RAIN COVERAGE HAS LESSENED.
REMAINDER OF WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 18.23Z/6 PM CDT LOCAL. /10

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

MARINE...MARINE PACKAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

/16

.FROM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW CENTER TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE EAST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH CONTINUES TO PLACE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
OVER EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY
THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALOFT GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS STILL NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOSTLY OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS STRETCHING SOUTH TO BEYOND 60NM FROM SHORE AND
INLAND MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS HEAVIER
RAINBANDS MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE RESULTING IN RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AL GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE THOUGH BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES DROPPED FROM
THE WATCH BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST. WITH THIS HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST MOSTLY KEEPING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY THROUGH
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. FOR
TONIGHT WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC.
32/EE

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW FOLLOWING SOON AFTER.  UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.  WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN RETURN TO SEASONABLE
VALUES BY SUNDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY.  A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A WEAKENING
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.  A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THEN WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...THEN CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE A DRY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES.  TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE...MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF PENSACOLA AND
DESTIN STRETCHING EASTWARD. SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MARINE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  50  76  53  79 /  60  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   66  53  75  56  76 /  80  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      65  54  72  57  73 /  90  40  10  05  00
EVERGREEN   63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  47  76  49  80 /  50  20  05  05  05
CAMDEN      63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   64  49  73  49  77 /  90  40  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COVINGTON...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$











  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 181748
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE MASS OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING AS YOU GO SOUTH
AND EAST. APPEARS THAT OUR POP FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON
TARGET...WITH A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN CATEGORICAL POPS
AND LOWER CHANCE POPS AS YOU GET INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS. AT MOST...WILL ONLY NEED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AND WX.

WITH THE RAIN NOW PRETTY WIDESPREAD...TEMPERATURES ARE HAVE EITHER
REMAINED STEADY OR EVEN DROPPED A FEW DEGREES. WE MAY NEED TO
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE WEST DUE TO THIS RECENT
COOLING. TEMPS PROBABLY ARE NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH IN THE EAST
EITHER...WITH ALL THE RAIN AROUND AND A WEDGE-LIKE EAST WIND.

/61/

61


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AVIATION IMPACTS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE GREATER IMPACTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TAFS. THE RAIN SHIELD HAS ERODED A BIT ON THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SIDE...WHICH HAS LET VISIBILITIES IMPROVE. THERE WERE ALSO
SOME BREAKS IN THE LOWER CEILINGS AT BHM AND EET AS WELL. AT MGM
AND TOI...THE RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF/ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. WE ARE GETTING
CONFLICTING SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS ON WHETHER THE LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO IMPROVE AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT. IN
EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES SUCH AS THIS...WE
TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING RID OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. I`VE
THEREFORE GONE WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST OF MVFR
CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT. IN FACT...IT
WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME IF SOME IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPED AT
BHM...EET...ANB...MGM...OR TOI.

SUNRISE SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY BRING SLOW IMPROVEMENT...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 181704 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...WAVE OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. ORGANIZED RAINS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
MORE EAST...BEING MORE CONFINED OVER COVINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA TO
ACROSS SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS REQUIRES AN UPDATE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH
REMOVES THE WESTERN PORTIONS WHERE RAIN COVERAGE HAS LESSENED.
REMAINDER OF WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 18.23Z/6 PM CDT LOCAL. /10

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

MARINE...MARINE PACKAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

/16

.FROM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW CENTER TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE EAST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH CONTINUES TO PLACE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
OVER EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY
THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALOFT GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS STILL NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOSTLY OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS STRETCHING SOUTH TO BEYOND 60NM FROM SHORE AND
INLAND MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS HEAVIER
RAINBANDS MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE RESULTING IN RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AL GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE THOUGH BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES DROPPED FROM
THE WATCH BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST. WITH THIS HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST MOSTLY KEEPING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY THROUGH
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. FOR
TONIGHT WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC.
32/EE

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW FOLLOWING SOON AFTER.  UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.  WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN RETURN TO SEASONABLE
VALUES BY SUNDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY.  A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A WEAKENING
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.  A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THEN WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...THEN CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE A DRY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES.  TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 18.18Z
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 20.09Z THEN MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.12Z. LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT FOG AND PERSISTENT RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY THEN TAPER OFF SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE...MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF PENSACOLA AND
DESTIN STRETCHING EASTWARD. SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MARINE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  50  76  53  79 /  60  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   66  53  75  56  76 /  80  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      65  54  72  57  73 /  90  40  10  05  00
EVERGREEN   63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  47  76  49  80 /  50  20  05  05  05
CAMDEN      63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   64  49  73  49  77 /  90  40  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COVINGTON...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 181609 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1109 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEDGE RIDGE IS STILL SITUATED OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WHILE A
GULF LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST UP INTO AL..GA AND FL. ANOTHER SMALL TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN TODAY WITH THE SLIGHT CAD IN PLACE ALONG
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH THE
DAY /AS SEEN ON VIS SATELLITE/. THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT PRECIP WILL MAINLY CATCH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
INCREASED THE POPS AND QPF BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 732 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...RADAR/SATELLITE DATA CONFIRM INCREASING IMPACTS AT
BOTH MSL/HSV THIS MORNING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE NE GULF. ALTHOUGH OBS CURRENTLY INDICATE BKN AS ARND 6-7 KFT
BENEATH OVC CI...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 3500 FT AS LIGHT PCPN
SPREADS NWD INTO THE REGION. WITH THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...
HAVE INCLUDED -RA IN TAF FOR MSL BTWN 18/14-20Z AND HSV BTWN 14-22Z
ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS /2500 FT/. CONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE
AFTN AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIP SHIFTS
STEADILY EWD. SCT CI WILL REMAIN PSBL AT MSL THRU END OF PERIOD...
WITH HSV LIKELY IMPACTED BY WRAP-AROUND STRATUS IN LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW.
WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL BACK FROM ESE-NNE/NNW WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
AREA RADARS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP A FEW ECHOES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING, WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWFA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW IN THE NRN
GOMEX, DEVELOPING AS THE SFC REFLECTION OF AN APPROACHING H5 TROF
CURRENTLY EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF 8Z. AS THIS FEATURE
DEEPENS, AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GOMEX AS WELL LATER THIS
MORNING (BY 12Z), ALL SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/EAST FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND (EVENTUALLY ENDING UP OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
BY EASTER SUNDAY MORNING). IN ADDITION TO THIS, ANOTHER WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS FIRING UP ALONG THE MS RIVER AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES IN THIS REGION. FURTHER WEST, TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
ARRIVING ON THE WEST COAST; ONE OVER SOCAL AND THE OTHER IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PHASE TOGETHER LATER IN THE PERIOD,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, FOR TODAY, NOT MUCH HAS REALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED THERE, WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SHOWERS
FLIRTING WITH OUR SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NEWRD. GIVEN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
(WRF/HRRR/NAM), HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN
LOCATIONS, AND HAVE ALSO ADDED POPS FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT AS THE RAIN
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION, MAKING FOR A WARM
AND DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE
WITH MORNING LOWS BETWEEN 45-50F, MAKING FOR GREAT WEATHER FOR
EASTER EGG HUNTS SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY, THEY WILL PHASE JUST SOUTH/WEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWFA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME,
AND WITH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING, POPS WERE
INCREASED DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
FURTHER SOUTH/EAST IT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA, ONLY GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME, RIDGING AT THE SFC/ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA
AND SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING SWRLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH MORNING LOWS INCREASING THROUGH
THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S, BUT BY
FRIDAY, LOWS WILL HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 6O DEGREES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHERMAKER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS AREN`T IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT, SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST JUST YET.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 181538 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1040 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.MARINE...MARINE PACKAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 181435
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
935 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE MASS OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING AS YOU GO SOUTH
AND EAST. APPEARS THAT OUR POP FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON
TARGET...WITH A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN CATEGORICAL POPS
AND LOWER CHANCE POPS AS YOU GET INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS. AT MOST...WILL ONLY NEED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AND WX.

WITH THE RAIN NOW PRETTY WIDESPREAD...TEMPERATURES ARE HAVE EITHER
REMAINED STEADY OR EVEN DROPPED A FEW DEGREES. WE MAY NEED TO
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE WEST DUE TO THIS RECENT
COOLING. TEMPS PROBABLY ARE NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH IN THE EAST
EITHER...WITH ALL THE RAIN AROUND AND A WEDGE-LIKE EAST WIND.

/61/

61

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS COVERING UP A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA...WENT A
VERY PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. THE LOW IFR DECK
HAS MOVED INTO TOI AND MGM AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. EXPECT THE CIGS TO LIFT A TAD AND BE
GENERALLY LOW END MVFR BY 14 TO 15Z. WENT WITH PERSISTENT RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS FOR MGM AND TOI THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT STARTED
CLEARING OUT THE NORTHERN 4 BY 3 TO 6Z AS THE TROUGH PUSHED
EASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 181232
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
732 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
AREA RADARS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP A FEW ECHOES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING, WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWFA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW IN THE NRN
GOMEX, DEVELOPING AS THE SFC REFLECTION OF AN APPROACHING H5 TROF
CURRENTLY EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF 8Z. AS THIS FEATURE
DEEPENS, AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GOMEX AS WELL LATER THIS
MORNING (BY 12Z), ALL SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/EAST FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND (EVENTUALLY ENDING UP OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
BY EASTER SUNDAY MORNING). IN ADDITION TO THIS, ANOTHER WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS FIRING UP ALONG THE MS RIVER AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES IN THIS REGION. FURTHER WEST, TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
ARRIVING ON THE WEST COAST; ONE OVER SOCAL AND THE OTHER IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PHASE TOGETHER LATER IN THE PERIOD,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, FOR TODAY, NOT MUCH HAS REALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED THERE, WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SHOWERS
FLIRTING WITH OUR SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NEWRD. GIVEN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
(WRF/HRRR/NAM), HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN
LOCATIONS, AND HAVE ALSO ADDED POPS FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT AS THE RAIN
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION, MAKING FOR A WARM
AND DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE
WITH MORNING LOWS BETWEEN 45-50F, MAKING FOR GREAT WEATHER FOR
EASTER EGG HUNTS SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY, THEY WILL PHASE JUST SOUTH/WEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWFA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME,
AND WITH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING, POPS WERE
INCREASED DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
FURTHER SOUTH/EAST IT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA, ONLY GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME, RIDGING AT THE SFC/ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA
AND SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING SWRLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH MORNING LOWS INCREASING THROUGH
THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S, BUT BY
FRIDAY, LOWS WILL HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 6O DEGREES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHERMAKER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS AREN`T IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT, SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST JUST YET.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...RADAR/SATELLITE DATA CONFIRM INCREASING IMPACTS AT
BOTH MSL/HSV THIS MORNING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE NE GULF. ALTHOUGH OBS CURRENTLY INDICATE BKN AS ARND 6-7 KFT
BENEATH OVC CI...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 3500 FT AS LIGHT PCPN
SPREADS NWD INTO THE REGION. WITH THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...
HAVE INCLUDED -RA IN TAF FOR MSL BTWN 18/14-20Z AND HSV BTWN 14-22Z
ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS /2500 FT/. CONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE
AFTN AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIP SHIFTS
STEADILY EWD. SCT CI WILL REMAIN PSBL AT MSL THRU END OF PERIOD...
WITH HSV LIKELY IMPACTED BY WRAP-AROUND STRATUS IN LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW.
WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL BACK FROM ESE-NNE/NNW WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181232
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
732 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
AREA RADARS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP A FEW ECHOES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING, WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWFA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW IN THE NRN
GOMEX, DEVELOPING AS THE SFC REFLECTION OF AN APPROACHING H5 TROF
CURRENTLY EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF 8Z. AS THIS FEATURE
DEEPENS, AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GOMEX AS WELL LATER THIS
MORNING (BY 12Z), ALL SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/EAST FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND (EVENTUALLY ENDING UP OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
BY EASTER SUNDAY MORNING). IN ADDITION TO THIS, ANOTHER WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS FIRING UP ALONG THE MS RIVER AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES IN THIS REGION. FURTHER WEST, TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
ARRIVING ON THE WEST COAST; ONE OVER SOCAL AND THE OTHER IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PHASE TOGETHER LATER IN THE PERIOD,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, FOR TODAY, NOT MUCH HAS REALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED THERE, WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SHOWERS
FLIRTING WITH OUR SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NEWRD. GIVEN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
(WRF/HRRR/NAM), HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN
LOCATIONS, AND HAVE ALSO ADDED POPS FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT AS THE RAIN
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION, MAKING FOR A WARM
AND DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE
WITH MORNING LOWS BETWEEN 45-50F, MAKING FOR GREAT WEATHER FOR
EASTER EGG HUNTS SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY, THEY WILL PHASE JUST SOUTH/WEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWFA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME,
AND WITH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING, POPS WERE
INCREASED DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
FURTHER SOUTH/EAST IT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA, ONLY GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME, RIDGING AT THE SFC/ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA
AND SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING SWRLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH MORNING LOWS INCREASING THROUGH
THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S, BUT BY
FRIDAY, LOWS WILL HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 6O DEGREES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHERMAKER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS AREN`T IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT, SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST JUST YET.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...RADAR/SATELLITE DATA CONFIRM INCREASING IMPACTS AT
BOTH MSL/HSV THIS MORNING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE NE GULF. ALTHOUGH OBS CURRENTLY INDICATE BKN AS ARND 6-7 KFT
BENEATH OVC CI...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 3500 FT AS LIGHT PCPN
SPREADS NWD INTO THE REGION. WITH THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...
HAVE INCLUDED -RA IN TAF FOR MSL BTWN 18/14-20Z AND HSV BTWN 14-22Z
ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS /2500 FT/. CONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE
AFTN AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIP SHIFTS
STEADILY EWD. SCT CI WILL REMAIN PSBL AT MSL THRU END OF PERIOD...
WITH HSV LIKELY IMPACTED BY WRAP-AROUND STRATUS IN LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW.
WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL BACK FROM ESE-NNE/NNW WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 181138
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A RATHER DREARY DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 59 AS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD SPREADS
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
HAS OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING AND DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NOSED ITS WAY INTO GEORGIA...
CREATING A COOL WEDGE. THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING MUCH TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL BE A BIT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR
EASTERN AREAS AS A TROWAL DEVELOPS AROUND A CLOSED UPPER. TOTAL
RAINFALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 COULD REACH 2-3 INCHES...BUT THE
RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING. ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
NEAR THE AL/GA STATE LINE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ON LATE
MONDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS DYNAMIC AS THE ONE WE ARE
CURRENTLY DEALING WITH...BUT THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS COVERING UP A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA...WENT A
VERY PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. THE LOW IFR DECK
HAS MOVED INTO TOI AND MGM AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. EXPECT THE CIGS TO LIFT A TAD AND BE
GENERALLY LOW END MVFR BY 14 TO 15Z. WENT WITH PERSISTENT RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS FOR MGM AND TOI THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT STARTED
CLEARING OUT THE NORTHERN 4 BY 3 TO 6Z AS THE TROUGH PUSHED
EASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  50  71  49  76 / 100  50  10   0   0
ANNISTON    56  50  69  50  76 / 100  60  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  58  50  73  50  77 /  90  40  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  62  50  76  50  79 /  70  20  10   0   0
CALERA      57  51  73  51  77 / 100  40  10   0   0
AUBURN      54  48  65  50  73 / 100  80  20  10   0
MONTGOMERY  57  50  70  51  77 / 100  60  10   0   0
TROY        56  49  67  50  75 / 100  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 181018
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
518 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS STARTING
TO SHOW A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
APPROXIMATELY 60NM EAST ENE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER MEANDERING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW CENTER TRACKING NE
TOWARDS THE EAST FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH CONTINUES TO PLACE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALOFT GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS STILL
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOSTLY OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
STRETCHING SOUTH TO BEYOND 60NM FROM SHORE AND INLAND MOSTLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS HEAVIER
RAINBANDS MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE RESULTING IN RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING NORTHWARD
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS
MENTIONED ABOVE THOUGH BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES
DROPPED FROM THE WATCH BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST. WITH THIS HAVE MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO THE EARLIER FORECAST MOSTLY KEEPING SLIGHTLY BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY THROUGH UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN. FOR TONIGHT WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A GOOD
NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC. 32/EE

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
OFF INTO THE WESTERN ALTANTIC LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW FOLLOWING SOON AFTER.  UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.  WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN RETURN TO SEASONABLE
VALUES BY SUNDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY.  A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A WEAKENING
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.  A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THEN WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...THEN CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE A DRY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES.  TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 18.18Z FOLLOWED
BY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 20.09Z THEN MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 20.12Z. LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT FOG AND PERSISTENT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY THEN TAPER OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE...MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF PENSACOLA AND
DESTIN STRETCHING EASTWARD. SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MARINE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  50  76  53  79 /  60  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   66  53  75  56  76 /  80  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      65  54  72  57  73 /  90  40  10  05  00
EVERGREEN   63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  47  76  49  80 /  50  20  05  05  05
CAMDEN      63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   64  49  73  49  77 /  90  40  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 180937
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
437 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A RATHER DREARY DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 59 AS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD SPREADS
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
HAS OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING AND DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NOSED ITS WAY INTO GEORGIA...
CREATING A COOL WEDGE. THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING MUCH TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL BE A BIT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR
EASTERN AREAS AS A TROWAL DEVELOPS AROUND A CLOSED UPPER. TOTAL
RAINFALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 COULD REACH 2-3 INCHES...BUT THE
RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING. ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
NEAR THE AL/GA STATE LINE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ON LATE
MONDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS DYNAMIC AS THE ONE WE ARE
CURRENTLY DEALING WITH...BUT THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT IT IS
MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND SHOULD MOVE INTO KTOI AND KMGM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR
AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASE NEAR SUNRISE AND EXPECT A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 11-20Z FOR KTOI AND KMGM.
ADDITIONALLY...RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS FOR IFE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL HAVE
A SHARP CUTOFF FURTHER NORTH. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON THIS CUT OFF
BUT EXPECT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE AROUND THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT IN SHOWER AS THE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CONDITIONS
PROBABLE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  50  71  49  76 /  70  50  10   0   0
ANNISTON    57  50  69  50  76 / 100  60  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  58  50  73  50  77 /  70  40  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  65  50  76  50  79 /  60  20  10   0   0
CALERA      57  51  73  51  77 /  90  40  10   0   0
AUBURN      55  48  65  50  73 / 100  80  20  10   0
MONTGOMERY  56  50  70  51  77 / 100  60  10   0   0
TROY        56  49  67  50  75 / 100  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/05






000
FXUS64 KHUN 180821
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP A FEW ECHOES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING, WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWFA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW IN THE NRN
GOMEX, DEVELOPING AS THE SFC REFLECTION OF AN APPROACHING H5 TROF
CURRENTLY EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF 8Z. AS THIS FEATURE
DEEPENS, AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GOMEX AS WELL LATER THIS
MORNING (BY 12Z), ALL SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/EAST FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND (EVENTUALLY ENDING UP OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
BY EASTER SUNDAY MORNING). IN ADDITION TO THIS, ANOTHER WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS FIRING UP ALONG THE MS RIVER AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES IN THIS REGION. FURTHER WEST, TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
ARRIVING ON THE WEST COAST; ONE OVER SOCAL AND THE OTHER IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PHASE TOGETHER LATER IN THE PERIOD,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, FOR TODAY, NOT MUCH HAS REALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED THERE, WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SHOWERS
FLIRTING WITH OUR SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NEWRD. GIVEN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
(WRF/HRRR/NAM), HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN
LOCATIONS, AND HAVE ALSO ADDED POPS FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT AS THE RAIN
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION, MAKING FOR A WARM
AND DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE
WITH MORNING LOWS BETWEEN 45-50F, MAKING FOR GREAT WEATHER FOR
EASTER EGG HUNTS SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY, THEY WILL PHASE JUST SOUTH/WEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWFA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME,
AND WITH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING, POPS WERE
INCREASED DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
FURTHER SOUTH/EAST IT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA, ONLY GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME, RIDGING AT THE SFC/ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA
AND SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING SWRLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH MORNING LOWS INCREASING THROUGH
THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S, BUT BY
FRIDAY, LOWS WILL HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 6O DEGREES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHERMAKER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS AREN`T IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT, SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST JUST YET.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1201 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. INCLUDED A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/16Z AT KHSV AND
BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/15Z AT KMSL. CANNOT RULE OUT A -SHRA NEAR THE
TERMINALS DURING THIS PERIOD...SO INCLUDED VCSH THEN. AFTERWARDS
EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  49  76  50 /  30  20   0   0
SHOALS        68  49  77  51 /  20  10   0   0
VINEMONT      65  47  75  51 /  30  20   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  65  46  74  48 /  30  20   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   65  46  74  49 /  30  20   0   0
FORT PAYNE    65  45  73  47 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 180821
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP A FEW ECHOES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING, WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWFA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW IN THE NRN
GOMEX, DEVELOPING AS THE SFC REFLECTION OF AN APPROACHING H5 TROF
CURRENTLY EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF 8Z. AS THIS FEATURE
DEEPENS, AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GOMEX AS WELL LATER THIS
MORNING (BY 12Z), ALL SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/EAST FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND (EVENTUALLY ENDING UP OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
BY EASTER SUNDAY MORNING). IN ADDITION TO THIS, ANOTHER WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS FIRING UP ALONG THE MS RIVER AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES IN THIS REGION. FURTHER WEST, TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
ARRIVING ON THE WEST COAST; ONE OVER SOCAL AND THE OTHER IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PHASE TOGETHER LATER IN THE PERIOD,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, FOR TODAY, NOT MUCH HAS REALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED THERE, WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SHOWERS
FLIRTING WITH OUR SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NEWRD. GIVEN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
(WRF/HRRR/NAM), HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN
LOCATIONS, AND HAVE ALSO ADDED POPS FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT AS THE RAIN
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION, MAKING FOR A WARM
AND DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE
WITH MORNING LOWS BETWEEN 45-50F, MAKING FOR GREAT WEATHER FOR
EASTER EGG HUNTS SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY, THEY WILL PHASE JUST SOUTH/WEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWFA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME,
AND WITH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING, POPS WERE
INCREASED DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
FURTHER SOUTH/EAST IT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA, ONLY GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME, RIDGING AT THE SFC/ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA
AND SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING SWRLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH MORNING LOWS INCREASING THROUGH
THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S, BUT BY
FRIDAY, LOWS WILL HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 6O DEGREES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHERMAKER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS AREN`T IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT, SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST JUST YET.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1201 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. INCLUDED A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/16Z AT KHSV AND
BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/15Z AT KMSL. CANNOT RULE OUT A -SHRA NEAR THE
TERMINALS DURING THIS PERIOD...SO INCLUDED VCSH THEN. AFTERWARDS
EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  49  76  50 /  30  20   0   0
SHOALS        68  49  77  51 /  20  10   0   0
VINEMONT      65  47  75  51 /  30  20   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  65  46  74  48 /  30  20   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   65  46  74  49 /  30  20   0   0
FORT PAYNE    65  45  73  47 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 180501 AAD
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1201 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 956 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THE SAME TIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LA
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NW MISSOURI. OVER NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN...THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS HAVE MANAGED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. TOWARD MIDNIGHT...BELIEVE THAT WINDS
WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS
ALONG WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S. EXPECT LOWER/MID 50
LOWS MAINLY WEST OF I-65. THEREFORE RAISED TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST A BIT. NAM12 AND GFS40 STILL SHOW VERY ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION AFTER 3 AM...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND
NEAR THE AL/MS STATE LINES...SO LEFT POPS ALONE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. INCLUDED A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/16Z AT KHSV AND
BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/15Z AT KMSL. CANNOT RULE OUT A -SHRA NEAR THE
TERMINALS DURING THIS PERIOD...SO INCLUDED VCSH THEN. AFTERWARDS
EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 180501 AAD
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1201 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 956 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THE SAME TIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LA
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NW MISSOURI. OVER NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN...THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS HAVE MANAGED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. TOWARD MIDNIGHT...BELIEVE THAT WINDS
WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS
ALONG WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S. EXPECT LOWER/MID 50
LOWS MAINLY WEST OF I-65. THEREFORE RAISED TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST A BIT. NAM12 AND GFS40 STILL SHOW VERY ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION AFTER 3 AM...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND
NEAR THE AL/MS STATE LINES...SO LEFT POPS ALONE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. INCLUDED A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/16Z AT KHSV AND
BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/15Z AT KMSL. CANNOT RULE OUT A -SHRA NEAR THE
TERMINALS DURING THIS PERIOD...SO INCLUDED VCSH THEN. AFTERWARDS
EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 180455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING IS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN. NORTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW...ALREADY SEEING RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
ALABAMA...WITH A COUPLE SHOWERS APPROACHING TROY AND BARBOUR
COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS IT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TOWARD
JACKSONVILLE. LOCALLY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD AS
EASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW INCREASE. BY
SUNRISE...EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK WET FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST.

ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND RAIN COVERAGE AREA BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. UPDATES ARE OUT.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT IT IS
MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND SHOULD MOVE INTO KTOI AND KMGM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR
AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASE NEAR SUNRISE AND EXPECT A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 11-20Z FOR KTOI AND KMGM.
ADDITIONALLY...RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS FOR IFE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL HAVE
A SHARP CUTOFF FURTHER NORTH. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON THIS CUT OFF
BUT EXPECT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE AROUND THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT IN SHOWER AS THE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CONDITIONS
PROBABLE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 180334 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1034 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING IS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN. NORTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW...ALREADY SEEING RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
ALABAMA...WITH A COUPLE SHOWERS APPROACHING TROY AND BARBOUR
COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS IT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TOWARD
JACKSONVILLE. LOCALLY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD AS
EASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW INCREASE. BY
SUNRISE...EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK WET FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST.

ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND RAIN COVERAGE AREA BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. UPDATES ARE OUT.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE NORTHERN TERMINALS REMAINING VFR
AND THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS GOING MVFR AROUND 05-07Z. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KTOI AFTER 08Z. SHOWERS WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS. RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY ENOUGH AT TIMES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR AT KMGM AND
KTOI. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECT RAIN WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 615 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

CONVECTION IS BLOWING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS. EXPECT RAIN TO
MOVE INLAND OVER ALABAMA AND NW FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RAIN...HEAVY
AT TIMES...WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING...SO CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL STAY ON THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. CROSS SECTIONS OF THETA-E SHOW A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT OF
CONTOURS BELOW 700MB...WHICH INDICATES VERY LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THERE IS A SMALL LAYER OF NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...SO AN ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-85
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
..WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
IS NEAR 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE RAIN WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO GEORGIA. AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF AND DEEPENS...THERE IS SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN THAT WILL LINGER
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE RAIN AND
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MANY AREAS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA WILL NOT
GET OUT OF THE 50S ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL STAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW. EXPECT THE THE RAIN TO BE OUT OF EAST
ALABAMA SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A MUCH WARMER AND NICER
DAY AS THIS PESKY SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES ON MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO RECOVER
FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...SO THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT NOT LOOK VERY
ORGANIZED OR PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOTHING SEVERE AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  61  46  72  49 /  20  60  40  10   0
ANNISTON    54  60  46  70  48 /  30  80  40  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  54  62  47  73  51 /  20  60  30  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  56  65  48  77  51 /  30  50  10  10   0
CALERA      55  61  48  72  50 /  30  60  30  10   0
AUBURN      54  57  47  66  49 /  70 100  60  30   0
MONTGOMERY  57  60  48  72  50 /  80  90  40  10   0
TROY        56  59  48  69  50 /  80 100  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 180256 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
956 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE WINDS LATE


&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THE SAME TIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LA
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NW MISSOURI. OVER NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN...THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS HAVE MANAGED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. TOWARD MIDNIGHT...BELIEVE THAT WINDS
WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS
ALONG WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S. EXPECT LOWER/MID 50
LOWS MAINLY WEST OF I-65. THEREFORE RAISED TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST A BIT. NAM12 AND GFS40 STILL SHOW VERY ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION AFTER 3 AM...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND
NEAR THE AL/MS STATE LINES...SO LEFT POPS ALONE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/18Z...BUT AT THIS
POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 180256 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
956 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE WINDS LATE


&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THE SAME TIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LA
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NW MISSOURI. OVER NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN...THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS HAVE MANAGED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. TOWARD MIDNIGHT...BELIEVE THAT WINDS
WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS
ALONG WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S. EXPECT LOWER/MID 50
LOWS MAINLY WEST OF I-65. THEREFORE RAISED TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST A BIT. NAM12 AND GFS40 STILL SHOW VERY ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION AFTER 3 AM...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND
NEAR THE AL/MS STATE LINES...SO LEFT POPS ALONE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/18Z...BUT AT THIS
POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 180017
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
717 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014


.AVIATION UPDATE (00Z ISSUANCE)...FLYING WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. BY LATE MORNING...AFTERNOON
VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND A
STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE LOWS WAKE. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  70  50  76  53 /  80  60  05  05  00
PENSACOLA   59  65  53  75  56 /  90  80  30  05  00
DESTIN      60  63  55  72  56 / 100  90  40  10  00
EVERGREEN   55  61  47  75  48 /  90  80  30  05  00
WAYNESBORO  57  68  46  77  48 /  60  60  05  05  00
CAMDEN      54  61  47  75  49 /  90  60  30  05  00
CRESTVIEW   56  60  50  75  50 / 100  90  40  10  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 172346 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND DELAY POP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VAST AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CURRENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE SUN CAN BARELY BE SEEN ILLUMINATING THE HIGH
CLOUD DECK TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICE...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
BASED ON UPSTREAM FLOW BOTH AT 850 MB AND 500 MB...EXPECT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THEREFORE UPDATED SKY CONDITIONS BETWEEN 7 AM AND MIDNIGHT TO
CLOUDY. ALSO...BASED ON GFS40 AND CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER BY 3
HOURS...AFTER 3 AM. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE APPROACHING NW ALABAMA
IN ZONAL FLOW. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AND IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THEREFORE ADJUSTED POP AND BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH INTO
CULLMAN...MARSHALL AND DEKALB COUNTIES AFTER 3 AM.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/18Z...BUT AT THIS
POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE.

KTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT THIN HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WERE RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDING OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR INVOLVING SHIFTING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP
TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS. THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR INVOLVING MOVING THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM BY
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER NAM
TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND THE COOLER GFS TEMPS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST MID TO
UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSIVE FLOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED MILD TEMPS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONT...ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 172346 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND DELAY POP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VAST AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CURRENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE SUN CAN BARELY BE SEEN ILLUMINATING THE HIGH
CLOUD DECK TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICE...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
BASED ON UPSTREAM FLOW BOTH AT 850 MB AND 500 MB...EXPECT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THEREFORE UPDATED SKY CONDITIONS BETWEEN 7 AM AND MIDNIGHT TO
CLOUDY. ALSO...BASED ON GFS40 AND CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER BY 3
HOURS...AFTER 3 AM. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE APPROACHING NW ALABAMA
IN ZONAL FLOW. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AND IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THEREFORE ADJUSTED POP AND BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH INTO
CULLMAN...MARSHALL AND DEKALB COUNTIES AFTER 3 AM.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/18Z...BUT AT THIS
POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE.

KTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT THIN HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WERE RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDING OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR INVOLVING SHIFTING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP
TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS. THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR INVOLVING MOVING THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM BY
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER NAM
TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND THE COOLER GFS TEMPS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST MID TO
UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSIVE FLOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED MILD TEMPS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONT...ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 172346 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND DELAY POP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VAST AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CURRENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE SUN CAN BARELY BE SEEN ILLUMINATING THE HIGH
CLOUD DECK TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICE...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
BASED ON UPSTREAM FLOW BOTH AT 850 MB AND 500 MB...EXPECT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THEREFORE UPDATED SKY CONDITIONS BETWEEN 7 AM AND MIDNIGHT TO
CLOUDY. ALSO...BASED ON GFS40 AND CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER BY 3
HOURS...AFTER 3 AM. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE APPROACHING NW ALABAMA
IN ZONAL FLOW. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AND IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THEREFORE ADJUSTED POP AND BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH INTO
CULLMAN...MARSHALL AND DEKALB COUNTIES AFTER 3 AM.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/18Z...BUT AT THIS
POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE.

KTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT THIN HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WERE RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDING OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR INVOLVING SHIFTING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP
TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS. THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR INVOLVING MOVING THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM BY
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER NAM
TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND THE COOLER GFS TEMPS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST MID TO
UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSIVE FLOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED MILD TEMPS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONT...ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 172346 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND DELAY POP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VAST AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CURRENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE SUN CAN BARELY BE SEEN ILLUMINATING THE HIGH
CLOUD DECK TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICE...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
BASED ON UPSTREAM FLOW BOTH AT 850 MB AND 500 MB...EXPECT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THEREFORE UPDATED SKY CONDITIONS BETWEEN 7 AM AND MIDNIGHT TO
CLOUDY. ALSO...BASED ON GFS40 AND CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER BY 3
HOURS...AFTER 3 AM. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE APPROACHING NW ALABAMA
IN ZONAL FLOW. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AND IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THEREFORE ADJUSTED POP AND BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH INTO
CULLMAN...MARSHALL AND DEKALB COUNTIES AFTER 3 AM.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/18Z...BUT AT THIS
POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE.

KTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT THIN HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WERE RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDING OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR INVOLVING SHIFTING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP
TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS. THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR INVOLVING MOVING THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM BY
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER NAM
TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND THE COOLER GFS TEMPS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST MID TO
UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSIVE FLOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED MILD TEMPS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONT...ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 172320 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
620 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT THIN HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WERE RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDING OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR INVOLVING SHIFTING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP
TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS. THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR INVOLVING MOVING THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM BY
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER NAM
TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND THE COOLER GFS TEMPS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST MID TO
UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSIVE FLOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED MILD TEMPS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONT...ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/18Z...BUT AT THIS
POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 172320 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
620 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT THIN HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WERE RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDING OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR INVOLVING SHIFTING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP
TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS. THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR INVOLVING MOVING THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM BY
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER NAM
TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND THE COOLER GFS TEMPS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST MID TO
UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSIVE FLOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED MILD TEMPS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONT...ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW MARGINAL
MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/18Z...BUT AT THIS
POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 172315
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

CONVECTION IS BLOWING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS. EXPECT RAIN TO
MOVE INLAND OVER ALABAMA AND NW FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RAIN...HEAVY
AT TIMES...WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING...SO CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL STAY ON THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. CROSS SECTIONS OF THETA-E SHOW A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT OF
CONTOURS BELOW 700MB...WHICH INDICATES VERY LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THERE IS A SMALL LAYER OF NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...SO AN ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-85
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
...WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
IS NEAR 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE RAIN WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO GEORGIA. AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF AND DEEPENS...THERE IS SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN THAT WILL LINGER
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE RAIN AND
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MANY AREAS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA WILL NOT
GET OUT OF THE 50S ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL STAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW. EXPECT THE THE RAIN TO BE OUT OF EAST
ALABAMA SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A MUCH WARMER AND NICER
DAY AS THIS PESKY SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES ON MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO RECOVER
FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...SO THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT NOT LOOK VERY
ORGANIZED OR PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOTHING SEVERE AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE NORTHERN TERMINALS REMAINING VFR
AND THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS GOING MVFR AROUND 05-07Z. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KTOI AFTER 08Z. SHOWERS WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS. RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY ENOUGH AT TIMES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR AT KMGM AND
KTOI. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECT RAIN WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 172037
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING LIKELY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
FORECAST DOMINATED BY SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A NORTHEAST
TRACK...WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION PASSING SOUTH OF THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CURRENT TRACK...GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE CENTERED AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS...SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY
PRESENT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDING TO THE
RAINFALL RATES....ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE UPPER DYNAMICS
ORGANIZE INTO A CLOSED SYSTEM...AND WITH LOW/MID LEVEL DYNAMICS
ADDING TO THE FRAY...FEEL 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY...WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOBILE
COUNTY EAST AND A BIT NORTH TO INCLUDE THE FL PANHANDLE AND
COVINGTON COUNTY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AL/MS STATE LINE
BY 00Z SATURDAY. AM EXPECTING THE RAIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH EASTERN AREAS OF THE FA SEEING RAIN
AND CLOUDS LONGER...TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN SEASONAL
EXPECTED...CLOSER TO SEASONAL OVER THE WEST WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED TO OCCUR. /16

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT...AND AS A RESULT
DELAYS THE EXIT OF CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS.

THE STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY...BUT SOME
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ALL RAINFALL WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S FAR EAST WEST UPPER 70S OVER WESTERN ZONES.
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING.
34/JFB

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS
A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN RETURNS
NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. POPS INCREASE TO
CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TREND
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE TUE-THU. 29/34

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...WILD CARD FOR THE FORECAST IS SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND HEAD NE. CIGS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO IFR OR LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE-
ERN THIRD OF THE AREA. FORECAST POINTS EXPECTED TO SEE DROPS INTO IFR
LEVELS...WITH TEMPS DROPS INTO LIFR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CIGS EXPECTED TO RISE LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST. /16

&&

.MARINE...STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX
HEADS NORTHEAST. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SETTLE LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER...THEN EAST OF THE
AREA...FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY
MORNING. /16

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NEW RIVER FORECASTS HAVE BEEN RUN THIS AFTERNOON TO
INCORPORATE THE NEW 2-4" RAINFALL FORECAST. THIS NOW PLACES THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE:

FISH RIVER AT SILVERHILL
STYX RIVER AT ELSANOR
PERDIDO RIVER AT BARRINEAU PARK
ESCAMBIA RIVER AT CENTURY (CONTINUED MINOR FLOODING)
SHOAL RIVER AT CRESTVIEW

LOCATIONS ALONG THE BLACKWATER RIVER AND BIG COLDWATER CREEK CREST
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. KEEP IN MIND THAT ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER AXIS OF RAINFALL SETS UP.

RIVER STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MANY SMALLER CREEKS...STREAMS...AND
TRIBUTARIES QUICKLY SWELLING AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING NEARBY AREAS.
34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  70  50  76  53 /  80  60  05  05  00
PENSACOLA   59  65  53  75  56 /  90  80  30  05  00
DESTIN      60  63  55  72  56 / 100  90  40  10  00
EVERGREEN   55  61  47  75  48 /  90  80  30  05  00
WAYNESBORO  57  68  46  77  48 /  60  60  05  05  00
CAMDEN      54  61  47  75  49 /  90  60  30  05  00
CRESTVIEW   56  60  50  75  50 / 100  90  40  10  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER
     BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 172016
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
316 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

CONVECTION IS BLOWING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS. EXPECT RAIN TO
MOVE INLAND OVER ALABAMA AND NW FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RAIN...HEAVY
AT TIMES...WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING...SO CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL STAY ON THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. CROSS SECTIONS OF THETA-E SHOW A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT OF
CONTOURS BELOW 700MB...WHICH INDICATES VERY LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THERE IS A SMALL LAYER OF NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...SO AN ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-85
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
...WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
IS NEAR 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE RAIN WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO GEORGIA. AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF AND DEEPENS...THERE IS SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN THAT WILL LINGER
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE RAIN AND
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MANY AREAS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA WILL NOT
GET OUT OF THE 50S ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL STAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW. EXPECT THE THE RAIN TO BE OUT OF EAST
ALABAMA SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A MUCH WARMER AND NICER
DAY AS THIS PESKY SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES ON MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO RECOVER
FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...SO THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT NOT LOOK VERY
ORGANIZED OR PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOTHING SEVERE AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT SPREADING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INLAND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT MGM AND TOI
AND THEN WORKING NORTHWARD BY SUNRISE. MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR TOI AND MGM TOMORROW MORNING WITH LIGHT RAINFALL
ELSEWHERE. LOWER CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE TOMORROW IN THE SOUTH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     46  61  46  72  49 /  20  60  40  10   0
ANNISTON    48  60  46  70  48 /  20  80  40  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  51  62  47  73  51 /  20  60  30  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  54  65  48  77  51 /  30  50  10  10   0
CALERA      52  61  48  72  50 /  30  60  30  10   0
AUBURN      48  57  47  66  49 /  70 100  60  30   0
MONTGOMERY  54  60  48  72  50 /  80  90  40  10   0
TROY        54  59  48  69  50 /  80 100  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 172003
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
303 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT THIN HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WERE RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDING OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR INVOLVING SHIFTING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP
TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS. THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR INVOLVING MOVING THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM BY
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER NAM
TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND THE COOLER GFS TEMPS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST MID TO
UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSIVE FLOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED MILD TEMPS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONT...ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1243 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL UNTIL
HIGH END MVFR CIGS MOVE IN AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE ~10KTS WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND CIGS WILL BORDER LOW VFR
AND HIGH MVFR FRIDAY MORNING AS LIGHT RAIN APPROACHES THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE RAIN AT TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL IF RAIN DOES OCCUR.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    50  66  49  77 /  20  20  10   0
SHOALS        51  68  49  78 /  20  20  10   0
VINEMONT      49  65  47  76 /  20  20  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  48  65  46  75 /  10  20  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   49  65  46  76 /  20  20  10   0
FORT PAYNE    47  65  45  77 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171743 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1243 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1034 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED UP THE EAST COAST WITH A WEDGE
RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT BACK DOWN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AS THIS IS
A SET UP FOR SLIGHT COLD AIR DAMMING IN NE ALABAMA...KEPT THE TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN THAT AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW 500
MB FLOW AND BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY.

FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL UNTIL
HIGH END MVFR CIGS MOVE IN AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE ~10KTS WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND CIGS WILL BORDER LOW VFR
AND HIGH MVFR FRIDAY MORNING AS LIGHT RAIN APPROACHES THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE RAIN AT TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL IF RAIN DOES OCCUR.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171743 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1243 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1034 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED UP THE EAST COAST WITH A WEDGE
RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT BACK DOWN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AS THIS IS
A SET UP FOR SLIGHT COLD AIR DAMMING IN NE ALABAMA...KEPT THE TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN THAT AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW 500
MB FLOW AND BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY.

FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL UNTIL
HIGH END MVFR CIGS MOVE IN AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE ~10KTS WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND CIGS WILL BORDER LOW VFR
AND HIGH MVFR FRIDAY MORNING AS LIGHT RAIN APPROACHES THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE RAIN AT TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL IF RAIN DOES OCCUR.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 171715
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY RETURNING TO THE AREA IN SOUTHEAST
FLOW. CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH ALABAMA AND EXPECT
CLOUDS TO REACH THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 60S.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT SPREADING CLOUSDS AND SHOWERS INLAND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT MGM AND TOI
AND THEN WORKING NORTHWARD BY SUNRISE. MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR TOI AND MGM TOMORROW MORNING WITH LIGHT RAINFALL
ELSEWHERE. LOWER CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE TOMORROW IN THE SOUTH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 171624 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO PUBLIC AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED PACKAGE TO INCLUDE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
ALONG AREA BEACHES. OTHERWISE...TEMP CURVE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
MORNING GUIDANCE COMING IN AND HAVE CONCERN FOR WATER PROBLEMS OVER
THE SE-ERN THIRD OF THE FA.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...WILD CARD FOR THE FORECAST IS SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND HEAD NE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO IFR OR LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE-ERN THIRD OF
THE AREA. FORECAST POINTS EXPECTED TO SEE DROPS INTO IFR
LEVELS...WITH TEMPS DROPS INTO LIFR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CIGS EXPECTED TO RISE LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND
LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH WARMER TONIGHT...IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. /13

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF A
LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.  THE UPPER LOW
DEEPENS WHILE CONTINUING EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF PNS AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ADVANCES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING USING A BLEND OF THE SLOWER
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/NAM COMPARED TO THE QUICKER GFS.  THIS SYSTEM
SUPPORTS CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 FRIDAY MORNING
TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERNMOST PORTION...THEN POPS
TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.  RAINFALL EVENT TOTALS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED FURTHER TO BE ABOUT 1-1.5 INCHES EAST OF I-65
TAPERING TO NEAR 0.3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERNMOST PORTION.
CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF I-65
GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THIS PORTION BUT NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS
POINT THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUFFICIENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO RAIN AND HEAVY
CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES ON
SATURDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER TROF BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.  THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES
EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH
BRINGS A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
RETURNS NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  POPS
INCREASE TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE STAYED
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW FOR WEDNESDAY AS DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION.  NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TREND
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. /29

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ON
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY AND
BECOME EASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  57  69  50  75 /  20  80  70  10  05
PENSACOLA   68  60  66  52  74 /  20  80  90  20  05
DESTIN      69  62  64  55  71 /  20  80  90  20  10
EVERGREEN   70  55  63  47  73 /  05  70  80  20  05
WAYNESBORO  68  55  69  46  76 /  05  60  40  10  05
CAMDEN      70  54  63  46  74 /  10  60  70  20  05
CRESTVIEW   72  57  63  46  74 /  10  80  90  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 171559
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1059 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY RETURNING TO THE AREA IN SOUTHEAST
FLOW. CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH ALABAMA AND EXPECT
CLOUDS TO REACH THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 60S.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAY BE A FEW PASSING MVFR CIGS AT TOI AND MGM THROUGH 15 TO
18Z...BUT NONE ARE SHOWING UP RIGHT NOW SO WENT WITH VFR AT ALL
SITES FOR NOW. THERE IS A BKN TO OVC DECK AROUND 3500 FEET MOVING
NORTH FROM THE COAST. GENERALLY BKN TO OVC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH CIGS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE THE DECK START TO LOWER AS THE INITIAL WAVE OF
MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA. STARTED THE RAIN AT 6Z IN TOI AND 8Z
AT MGM. LOOKS LIKE EET AND TCL WILL SEE THE NEXT SHOT AT BUT IT
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS CYCLE...BUT WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES. BHM AND ANB SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER ENJOYABLE AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FOR
MID APRIL DUE TO AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. A LOW-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN TO OUR WEST TONIGHT...CAUSING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE GFS HAS ABANDONED
ITS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF
WHICH SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA ON
FRIDAY. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...A LARGE RAIN SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS. MEANWHILE A COOL WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND GET WRAPPED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. KEPT
TEMPERATURES RATHER CHILLY ON FRIDAY WITH SOME AREAS NOT EXPECTED
TO RISE ABOVE THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS. A TROWAL WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN LINGERING ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY AS WE GET A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT US BY LATE MONDAY
BUT IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS ITS PREDECESSOR. THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  50  59  46  72 /   0  20  40  10  10
ANNISTON    66  50  57  47  72 /   0  20  50  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  51  60  47  73 /   0  20  40  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  52  65  47  76 /   0  30  30  10  10
CALERA      66  52  60  48  73 /   0  30  50  20  10
AUBURN      65  51  55  47  69 /   0  40  80  50  20
MONTGOMERY  68  51  58  48  73 /   0  70  80  40  10
TROY        68  52  55  48  71 /  10  80  90  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 171534 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1034 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED UP THE EAST COAST WITH A WEDGE
RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT BACK DOWN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AS THIS IS
A SET UP FOR SLIGHT COLD AIR DAMMING IN NE ALABAMA...KEPT THE TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN THAT AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW 500
MB FLOW AND BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY.

FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL...WITH
SCT CI EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE MORNING...ALONG WITH AN ESE
FLOW OF 5-10 KTS. CI WILL LIKELY THICKEN BY EARLY AFTN...BUT
SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
STRATOCU CLOUDS ARND 3500 FT. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR...THE
EFFECTS OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED DURING SECOND HALF OF TAF PERIOD...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF BKN
STRATOCU DECK ARND 3500 FT BENEATH BKN-OVC AS/CS DECKS. -RA MAY BEGIN
TO IMPACT TERMINALS BTWN 18/09-12Z BUT VIRGA APPEARS MORE LIKELY AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE PCPN IN FORECAST ATTM. AFTER A BRISK SE FLOW AROUND
10 KTS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BACK TO ESE AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN APPROACHING TROF
CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER
LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE WAS
NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACNW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT
THE SFC THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS A RESULT, AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWFA (WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS
ABOUT THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IN TODAY`S FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS TIME IN THE NRN
GOMEX, INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FL.
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH/EAST
ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT`S THIS FEATURE THAT WILL GOVERN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TN VALLEY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
THAT SAID, WITH WAA ONGOING DURING THIS PROCESS, A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. AS A RESULT, POPS WERE DECREASED DOWN TO 20% BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING, VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA. ERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER/SFC LOW TO THE SE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CAD EVENT, WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S IN NERN
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE
WEEKEND.

FOLLOWING A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACNW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, ARRIVING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
IN THEIR TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
AREA IN WAA SHRA FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH DAYS. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES,
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS IN THE NRN GOMEX.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH AFTN, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 171534 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1034 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED UP THE EAST COAST WITH A WEDGE
RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT BACK DOWN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AS THIS IS
A SET UP FOR SLIGHT COLD AIR DAMMING IN NE ALABAMA...KEPT THE TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN THAT AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW 500
MB FLOW AND BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY.

FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL...WITH
SCT CI EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE MORNING...ALONG WITH AN ESE
FLOW OF 5-10 KTS. CI WILL LIKELY THICKEN BY EARLY AFTN...BUT
SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
STRATOCU CLOUDS ARND 3500 FT. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR...THE
EFFECTS OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED DURING SECOND HALF OF TAF PERIOD...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF BKN
STRATOCU DECK ARND 3500 FT BENEATH BKN-OVC AS/CS DECKS. -RA MAY BEGIN
TO IMPACT TERMINALS BTWN 18/09-12Z BUT VIRGA APPEARS MORE LIKELY AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE PCPN IN FORECAST ATTM. AFTER A BRISK SE FLOW AROUND
10 KTS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BACK TO ESE AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN APPROACHING TROF
CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER
LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE WAS
NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACNW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT
THE SFC THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS A RESULT, AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWFA (WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS
ABOUT THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IN TODAY`S FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS TIME IN THE NRN
GOMEX, INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FL.
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH/EAST
ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT`S THIS FEATURE THAT WILL GOVERN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TN VALLEY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
THAT SAID, WITH WAA ONGOING DURING THIS PROCESS, A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. AS A RESULT, POPS WERE DECREASED DOWN TO 20% BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING, VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA. ERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER/SFC LOW TO THE SE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CAD EVENT, WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S IN NERN
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE
WEEKEND.

FOLLOWING A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACNW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, ARRIVING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
IN THEIR TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
AREA IN WAA SHRA FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH DAYS. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES,
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS IN THE NRN GOMEX.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH AFTN, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171204
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
704 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN APPROACHING TROF
CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER
LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE WAS
NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACNW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT
THE SFC THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS A RESULT, AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWFA (WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS
ABOUT THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IN TODAY`S FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS TIME IN THE NRN
GOMEX, INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FL.
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH/EAST
ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT`S THIS FEATURE THAT WILL GOVERN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TN VALLEY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
THAT SAID, WITH WAA ONGOING DURING THIS PROCESS, A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. AS A RESULT, POPS WERE DECREASED DOWN TO 20% BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING, VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA. ERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER/SFC LOW TO THE SE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CAD EVENT, WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S IN NERN
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE
WEEKEND.

FOLLOWING A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACNW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, ARRIVING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
IN THEIR TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
AREA IN WAA SHRA FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH DAYS. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES,
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS IN THE NRN GOMEX.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH AFTN, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL...WITH
SCT CI EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE MORNING...ALONG WITH AN ESE
FLOW OF 5-10 KTS. CI WILL LIKELY THICKEN BY EARLY AFTN...BUT
SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
STRATOCU CLOUDS ARND 3500 FT. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR...THE
EFFECTS OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED DURING SECOND HALF OF TAF PERIOD...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF BKN
STRATOCU DECK ARND 3500 FT BENEATH BKN-OVC AS/CS DECKS. -RA MAY BEGIN
TO IMPACT TERMINALS BTWN 18/09-12Z BUT VIRGA APPEARS MORE LIKELY AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE PCPN IN FORECAST ATTM. AFTER A BRISK SE FLOW AROUND
10 KTS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BACK TO ESE AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 171126
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
626 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER ENJOYABLE AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FOR
MID APRIL DUE TO AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. A LOW-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN TO OUR WEST TONIGHT...CAUSING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE GFS HAS ABANDONED
ITS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF
WHICH SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA ON
FRIDAY. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...A LARGE RAIN SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS. MEANWHILE A COOL WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND GET WRAPPED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. KEPT
TEMPERATURES RATHER CHILLY ON FRIDAY WITH SOME AREAS NOT EXPECTED
TO RISE ABOVE THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS. A TROWAL WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN LINGERING ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY AS WE GET A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT US BY LATE MONDAY
BUT IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS ITS PREDECESSOR. THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAY BE A FEW PASSING MVFR CIGS AT TOI AND MGM THROUGH 15 TO
18Z...BUT NONE ARE SHOWING UP RIGHT NOW SO WENT WITH VFR AT ALL
SITES FOR NOW. THERE IS A BKN TO OVC DECK AROUND 3500 FEET MOVING
NORTH FROM THE COAST. GENERALLY BKN TO OVC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH CIGS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE THE DECK START TO LOWER AS THE INITIAL WAVE OF
MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA. STARTED THE RAIN AT 6Z IN TOI AND 8Z
AT MGM. LOOKS LIKE EET AND TCL WILL SEE THE NEXT SHOT AT BUT IT
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS CYCLE...BUT WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES. BHM AND ANB SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  50  59  46  72 /   0  20  40  10  10
ANNISTON    66  50  57  47  72 /   0  20  50  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  51  60  47  73 /   0  20  40  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  52  65  47  76 /   0  30  30  10  10
CALERA      67  52  60  48  73 /   0  30  50  20  10
AUBURN      65  51  55  47  69 /   0  40  80  50  20
MONTGOMERY  69  51  58  48  73 /   0  70  80  40  10
TROY        68  52  55  48  71 /  10  80  90  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 170914
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
414 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER ENJOYABLE AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FOR
MID APRIL DUE TO AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. A LOW-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN TO OUR WEST TONIGHT...CAUSING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE GFS HAS ABANDONED
ITS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF
WHICH SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA ON
FRIDAY. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...A LARGE RAIN SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS. MEANWHILE A COOL WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND GET WRAPPED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. KEPT
TEMPERATURES RATHER CHILLY ON FRIDAY WITH SOME AREAS NOT EXPECTED
TO RISE ABOVE THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS. A TROWAL WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN LINGERING ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY AS WE GET A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT US BY LATE MONDAY
BUT IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS ITS PREDECESSOR. THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE
WITH A LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND A HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN MOISTURE AND INCREASE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. DUE TO THIS...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT KTOI AROUND 12Z. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST INCLUDED
MVFR CEILINGS AT KTOI BUT THEY COULD SNEAK UP TO KMGM AS WELL.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z AND SHOULD SUBSIDE
AROUND SUNSET.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  50  59  46  72 /   0  20  40  10  10
ANNISTON    66  50  57  47  72 /   0  20  50  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  51  60  47  73 /   0  20  40  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  52  65  47  76 /   0  30  30  10  10
CALERA      67  52  60  48  73 /   0  30  50  20  10
AUBURN      65  51  55  47  69 /   0  40  80  50  20
MONTGOMERY  69  51  58  48  73 /   0  70  80  40  10
TROY        68  52  55  48  71 /  10  80  90  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/05






000
FXUS64 KMOB 170904
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND
LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH WARMER TONIGHT...IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. /13

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF A
LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.  THE UPPER LOW
DEEPENS WHILE CONTINUING EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF PNS AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ADVANCES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING USING A BLEND OF THE SLOWER
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/NAM COMPARED TO THE QUICKER GFS.  THIS SYSTEM
SUPPORTS CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 FRIDAY MORNING
TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERNMOST PORTION...THEN POPS
TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.  RAINFALL EVENT TOTALS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED FURTHER TO BE ABOUT 1-1.5 INCHES EAST OF I-65
TAPERING TO NEAR 0.3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERNMOST PORTION.
CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF I-65
GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THIS PORTION BUT NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS
POINT THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUFFICIENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO RAIN AND HEAVY
CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES ON
SATURDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER TROF BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.  THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES
EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH
BRINGS A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
RETURNS NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  POPS
INCREASE TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE STAYED
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW FOR WEDNESDAY AS DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION.  NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TREND
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18.00Z. /13

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ON
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY AND
BECOME EASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  57  69  50  75 /  20  80  70  10  05
PENSACOLA   68  60  66  52  74 /  20  80  90  20  05
DESTIN      69  62  64  55  71 /  20  80  90  20  10
EVERGREEN   70  55  63  47  73 /  05  70  80  20  05
WAYNESBORO  68  55  69  46  76 /  05  60  40  10  05
CAMDEN      70  54  63  46  74 /  10  60  70  20  05
CRESTVIEW   72  57  63  46  74 /  10  80  90  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHUN 170824
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN APPROACHING TROF
CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER
LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE WAS
NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACNW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT
THE SFC THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS A RESULT, AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWFA (WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS
ABOUT THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IN TODAY`S FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS TIME IN THE NRN
GOMEX, INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FL.
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH/EAST
ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT`S THIS FEATURE THAT WILL GOVERN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TN VALLEY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
THAT SAID, WITH WAA ONGOING DURING THIS PROCESS, A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. AS A RESULT, POPS WERE DECREASED DOWN TO 20% BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING, VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA. ERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER/SFC LOW TO THE SE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CAD EVENT, WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S IN NERN
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE
WEEKEND.

FOLLOWING A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACNW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, ARRIVING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
IN THEIR TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
AREA IN WAA SHRA FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH DAYS. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES,
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS IN THE NRN GOMEX.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH AFTN, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  50  63  48 /   0  20  20  10
SHOALS        68  51  66  48 /   0  20  20  10
VINEMONT      67  49  63  46 /   0  20  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  67  48  62  45 /   0  10  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   66  49  62  45 /   0  20  20  10
FORT PAYNE    66  47  63  44 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170824
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN APPROACHING TROF
CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER
LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE WAS
NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACNW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT
THE SFC THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS A RESULT, AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWFA (WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS
ABOUT THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IN TODAY`S FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS TIME IN THE NRN
GOMEX, INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FL.
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH/EAST
ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT`S THIS FEATURE THAT WILL GOVERN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TN VALLEY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
THAT SAID, WITH WAA ONGOING DURING THIS PROCESS, A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. AS A RESULT, POPS WERE DECREASED DOWN TO 20% BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING, VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA. ERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER/SFC LOW TO THE SE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CAD EVENT, WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S IN NERN
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE
WEEKEND.

FOLLOWING A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACNW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, ARRIVING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
IN THEIR TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
AREA IN WAA SHRA FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH DAYS. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES,
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS IN THE NRN GOMEX.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH AFTN, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  50  63  48 /   0  20  20  10
SHOALS        68  51  66  48 /   0  20  20  10
VINEMONT      67  49  63  46 /   0  20  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  67  48  62  45 /   0  10  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   66  49  62  45 /   0  20  20  10
FORT PAYNE    66  47  63  44 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 170545 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170545 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 170457 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1157 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION [06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO START OFF THIS TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE LOCAL
TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER 17/09Z...WITH MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS LINGERING
INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. IFR CIGS SHOULD BE LIMITED/LOWER IN
PROBABILITY...BUT MAY STILL SKIRT NEAR THE KPNS TERMINAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST AT
10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /21

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH INCREASED FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET OUT 20 NM...AND
5 TO AS HIGH AS 8 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  71  57  73  54 /  05  10  50  50  10
PENSACOLA   50  69  59  71  55 /  05  20  60  60  20
DESTIN      55  68  60  69  58 /  05  20  70  70  30
EVERGREEN   44  70  55  71  50 /  05  10  40  50  20
WAYNESBORO  41  70  55  73  51 /  05  10  20  20  10
CAMDEN      42  70  54  71  50 /  05  10  20  40  10
CRESTVIEW   43  71  57  70  51 /  05  20  60  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$

21/08





000
FXUS64 KBMX 170456
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON COOLING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAK WEDGING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE WEAK LIFT
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRATUS DECK TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS FOR CURRENT OBS...BUT LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S STILL LOOK GOOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY AROUND
4-6MPH ALL NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST. BUT VERY
LOCALIZED AND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT
FROST BY SUNRISE.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE
WITH A LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND A HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN MOISTURE AND INCREASE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. DUE TO THIS...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT KTOI AROUND 12Z. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST INCLUDED
MVFR CEILINGS AT KTOI BUT THEY COULD SNEAK UP TO KMGM AS WELL.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z AND SHOULD SUBSIDE
AROUND SUNSET.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 170252 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
952 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON COOLING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAK WEDGING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE WEAK LIFT
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRATUS DECK TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS FOR CURRENT OBS...BUT LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S STILL LOOK GOOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY AROUND
4-6MPH ALL NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST. BUT VERY
LOCALIZED AND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT
FROST BY SUNRISE.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE NEAR MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AT KMGM AND KTOI BUT
HAVE LEFT VFR FOR NOW. WINDS INCREASE OVER 7 KTS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
POSSIBLE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 628 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
ON TAP TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S. A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA MAY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE NAM MODEL DOES SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WEST ALABAMA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEDGE FRONT...BUT IT IS
AN OUTLIER AND WILL KEEP RAIN FREE CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AN DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THIS
SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING AND MENTIONED ONLY
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN FREE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AND LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY. THE
GFS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF THE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL HINDER THE RETURN FLOW OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH QPF AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY MAY BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL. DE TO THE LACK OF RETURN FLOW..SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 60 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS
SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE NOT THAT HIGH. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  64  45  66  43 /   0  10  20  30  10
ANNISTON    39  65  48  67  46 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  41  66  50  67  49 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  40  69  52  68  48 /   0  10  30  30  10
CALERA      41  68  52  68  49 /   0  10  20  30  10
AUBURN      41  64  50  64  48 /  10  10  20  40  20
MONTGOMERY  41  69  54  68  50 /  10  10  30  40  20
TROY        42  68  53  65  50 /  10  10  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 170212 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170212 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170212 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170212 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 170101 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
749 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE [00Z DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO INVADE THE
FLYING AREA CREATING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG OUR COASTAL AREA BEFORE DAY BREAK AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD.  AFTERNOON HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD LOW END VFR AND UPPER END MVFR CEILINGS. /08
JW

**************************PREVIOUS DISCUSSION******************

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN US ROCKIES TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
BEGINNINGS OF A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE LOW STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST. MOST OF THE FA WILL SEE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL CONTINUING. /16

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING THE PHASING OF
A NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH
A SFC LOW DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND TRACKING EAST TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA FRI NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...
BUT IT DELAYS THE PHASING BY ABOUT 12 HRS...WHICH RESULTS IN THE SFC
LOW DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND KEEPING THE BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. THIS FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD THIS
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF.
THIS RESULTS IN RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN EARNEST ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...WITH A LARGER SHIELD OF RAIN LIKELY SPREADING INTO
AREAS EAST OF I-65 LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
AND COVINGTON COUNTY AL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STORM
SYSTEM STEADILY MOVES FURTHER EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN
QUICKLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. WE HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL
TOTALS TO A HALF INCH TO JUST OVER AN INCH EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...HIGHEST OVER OKALOOSA COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THESE TOTALS
WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
TOTALS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED WEST OF I-65.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES GIVEN THE CLOUDS/RAIN. LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE 50S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS...COOLEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 70/LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE BAJA MOVES EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
BY NEXT TUESDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WELL INLAND FROM
THE COAST. NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE COAST...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
NEAR IFR LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME RISING OF THE BASES AS TEMPS
WARM...BUT AM EXPECTING GENERAL MVFR LEVEL CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THURS. /16

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FORM LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH...THEN EAST OF THE MARINE FA...WITH THE MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLIES BECOMING STRONG NORTHERLIES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL SETTLE ALTER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA...FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  71  57  73  54 /  05  10  50  50  10
PENSACOLA   50  69  59  71  55 /  05  20  60  50  20
DESTIN      55  68  60  69  58 /  05  20  70  70  30
EVERGREEN   44  70  55  71  50 /  05  10  40  50  20
WAYNESBORO  41  70  55  73  51 /  05  10  20  20  10
CAMDEN      42  70  54  71  50 /  05  10  20  40  10
CRESTVIEW   43  71  57  70  51 /  05  20  60  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR
THE      FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS
FROM      DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM      PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...     PERDIDO
BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO      PENSACOLA FL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO      PASCAGOULA MS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KBMX 162328
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
ON TAP TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S. A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA MAY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE NAM MODEL DOES SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WEST ALABAMA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEDGE FRONT...BUT IT IS
AN OUTLIER AND WILL KEEP RAIN FREE CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AN DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THIS
SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING AND MENTIONED ONLY
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN FREE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AND LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY. THE
GFS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF THE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL HINDER THE RETURN FLOW OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH QPF AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY MAY BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL. DE TO THE LACK OF RETURN FLOW..SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 60 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS
SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE NOT THAT HIGH. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE NEAR MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AT KMGM AND KTOI BUT
HAVE LEFT VFR FOR NOW. WINDS INCREASE OVER 7 KTS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
POSSIBLE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 162316 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 162316 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 162316 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 162316 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 162031
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
331 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN US ROCKIES TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
BEGINNINGS OF A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE LOW STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST. MOST OF THE FA WILL SEE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL CONTINUING. /16

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING THE PHASING OF
A NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH
A SFC LOW DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND TRACKING EAST TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA FRI NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...
BUT IT DELAYS THE PHASING BY ABOUT 12 HRS...WHICH RESULTS IN THE SFC
LOW DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND KEEPING THE BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. THIS FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD THIS
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF.
THIS RESULTS IN RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN EARNEST ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...WITH A LARGER SHIELD OF RAIN LIKELY SPREADING INTO
AREAS EAST OF I-65 LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
AND COVINGTON COUNTY AL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STORM
SYSTEM STEADILY MOVES FURTHER EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN
QUICKLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. WE HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL
TOTALS TO A HALF INCH TO JUST OVER AN INCH EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...HIGHEST OVER OKALOOSA COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THESE TOTALS
WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
TOTALS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED WEST OF I-65.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES GIVEN THE CLOUDS/RAIN. LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE 50S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS...COOLEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 70/LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE BAJA MOVES EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
BY NEXT TUESDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WELL INLAND FROM
THE COAST. NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE COAST...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
NEAR IFR LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME RISING OF THE BASES AS TEMPS
WARM...BUT AM EXPECTING GENERAL MVFR LEVEL CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THURS. /16

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FORM LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH...THEN EAST OF THE MARINE FA...WITH THE MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLIES BECOMING STRONG NORTHERLIES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL SETTLE ALTER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA...FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  71  57  73  54 /  05  10  50  50  10
PENSACOLA   50  69  59  71  55 /  05  20  60  50  20
DESTIN      55  68  60  69  58 /  05  20  70  70  30
EVERGREEN   44  70  55  71  50 /  05  10  40  50  20
WAYNESBORO  41  70  55  73  51 /  05  10  20  20  10
CAMDEN      42  70  54  71  50 /  05  10  20  40  10
CRESTVIEW   43  71  57  70  51 /  05  20  60  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 162030
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
330 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
ON TAP TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S. A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA MAY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE NAM MODEL DOES SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WEST ALABAMA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEDGE FRONT...BUT IT IS
AN OUTLIER AND WILL KEEP RAIN FREE CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AN DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THIS
SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING AND MENTIONED ONLY
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN FREE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AND LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY. THE
GFS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF THE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL HINDER THE RETURN FLOW OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH QPF AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY MAY BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL. DE TO THE LACK OF RETURN FLOW..SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 60 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS
SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE NOT THAT HIGH. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.


58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING IN A DECENT MOIST LAYER BETWEEN
925MB AND 850MB. WILL INTRODUCE A VFR CEILING AT TOI AND MGM FOR
TOMORROW BUT THIS COULD WIND UP BEING MVFR LATER ON.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  64  45  66  43 /   0  10  20  30  10
ANNISTON    39  65  48  67  46 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  41  66  50  67  49 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  40  69  52  68  48 /   0  10  30  30  10
CALERA      41  68  52  68  49 /   0  10  20  30  10
AUBURN      41  64  50  64  48 /  10  10  20  40  20
MONTGOMERY  41  69  54  68  50 /  10  10  30  40  20
TROY        42  68  53  65  50 /  10  10  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHUN 162021
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING UP TO 12-14 KTS.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  69  49  67 /   0  10  20  30
SHOALS        40  69  50  69 /   0  10  30  30
VINEMONT      40  68  48  66 /   0  10  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  38  68  47  65 /   0  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   40  67  48  64 /   0  10  20  20
FORT PAYNE    37  67  46  65 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 162021
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING UP TO 12-14 KTS.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  69  49  67 /   0  10  20  30
SHOALS        40  69  50  69 /   0  10  30  30
VINEMONT      40  68  48  66 /   0  10  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  38  68  47  65 /   0  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   40  67  48  64 /   0  10  20  20
FORT PAYNE    37  67  46  65 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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