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000
FXUS64 KMOB 021407 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
907 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...LATEST BUOY REPORTS INDICATE A LONG PERIOD SWELL (3 FT/8
SEC) CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE SWELL COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING TIDAL RANGE WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
34/JFB

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TODAY AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA BY
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN TODAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND BUILD
INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES)
WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROF IN THE EASTERLIES ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
PROMOTING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES...OR ABOUT 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL.  EXPECT A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WHICH LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG EACH DAY WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING
LEADING TO COLLAPSING CORES AND POTENTIALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WELL INLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COMBINATION OF A LONGWAVE
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE GULF WEAK UPPER TROF
LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES
THROUGH SATURDAY.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STATES
UPPER TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT ALSO BRINGS A WEAK
TRAILING FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  UPPER
RIDGING GRADUALLY RECOVERS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PERSISTING NEAR 2.0 INCHES.  SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
COVERAGE POTENTIALLY ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW PERSISTS UNTIL WINDS
TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND THEN RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE WEEK. SEAS SUBSIDE SLOWLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  74  93  74  92 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  76  92 /  30  20  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  78  92  77  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  72  94  71  93 /  40  20  50  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   94  72  94  71  94 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 021407 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
907 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...LATEST BUOY REPORTS INDICATE A LONG PERIOD SWELL (3 FT/8
SEC) CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE SWELL COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING TIDAL RANGE WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
34/JFB

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TODAY AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA BY
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN TODAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND BUILD
INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES)
WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROF IN THE EASTERLIES ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
PROMOTING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES...OR ABOUT 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL.  EXPECT A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WHICH LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG EACH DAY WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING
LEADING TO COLLAPSING CORES AND POTENTIALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WELL INLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COMBINATION OF A LONGWAVE
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE GULF WEAK UPPER TROF
LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES
THROUGH SATURDAY.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STATES
UPPER TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT ALSO BRINGS A WEAK
TRAILING FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  UPPER
RIDGING GRADUALLY RECOVERS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PERSISTING NEAR 2.0 INCHES.  SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
COVERAGE POTENTIALLY ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW PERSISTS UNTIL WINDS
TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND THEN RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE WEEK. SEAS SUBSIDE SLOWLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  74  93  74  92 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  76  92 /  30  20  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  78  92  77  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  72  94  71  93 /  40  20  50  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   94  72  94  71  94 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 021150
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE STILL SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS ONGOING ACROSS INDIANA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...TS
DOLLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD MEXICO.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST BEFORE REACHING
CENTRAL ALABAMA AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL NORTH OF THE FLATTENED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH WE WON`T HAVE THE FRONT IN OUR CWA TO
HELP PROVIDE LIFT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION TODAY. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE ONGOING MCS COULD ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE SUN SETS. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THRU FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH
TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. LIFT PROVIDED BY
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY POPS COULD END UP BEING HIGHER THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR ONE OR MORE OF THESE PERIODS.
ALTHOUGH TRUE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
FRONT INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD STILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
JUST YET. ADDED A BRIEF MENTION OF SOME CLOUDS BELOW 1K FT AT
TCL THIS MORNING AND MIXED BEGINS AS THE SUN RISES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 KTS BUT MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  68  93  70  91 /  30  20  40  20  40
ANNISTON    93  70  93  71  93 /  30  20  40  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  74  94  73  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  72  95  71  95 /  30  20  40  20  40
CALERA      93  72  93  72  93 /  30  20  40  20  40
AUBURN      93  73  92  72  92 /  30  20  40  20  40
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  95 /  30  20  40  20  40
TROY        94  71  94  72  92 /  30  20  40  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 021150
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE STILL SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS ONGOING ACROSS INDIANA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...TS
DOLLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD MEXICO.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST BEFORE REACHING
CENTRAL ALABAMA AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL NORTH OF THE FLATTENED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH WE WON`T HAVE THE FRONT IN OUR CWA TO
HELP PROVIDE LIFT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION TODAY. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE ONGOING MCS COULD ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE SUN SETS. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THRU FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH
TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. LIFT PROVIDED BY
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY POPS COULD END UP BEING HIGHER THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR ONE OR MORE OF THESE PERIODS.
ALTHOUGH TRUE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
FRONT INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD STILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
JUST YET. ADDED A BRIEF MENTION OF SOME CLOUDS BELOW 1K FT AT
TCL THIS MORNING AND MIXED BEGINS AS THE SUN RISES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 KTS BUT MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  68  93  70  91 /  30  20  40  20  40
ANNISTON    93  70  93  71  93 /  30  20  40  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  74  94  73  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  72  95  71  95 /  30  20  40  20  40
CALERA      93  72  93  72  93 /  30  20  40  20  40
AUBURN      93  73  92  72  92 /  30  20  40  20  40
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  95 /  30  20  40  20  40
TROY        94  71  94  72  92 /  30  20  40  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 021145 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO THE CORN BELT REGION AND E KS/N OK. A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW
PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO THE WEST OF
THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE OVER THE ATLANTIC, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXISTS
FROM MAINE/E ONTARIO TO EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

IN ADDITION, TS DOLLY HAS FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST.

SL.77

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE EASTWARD WITH THE ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY, CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION, AN ANTECEDENT
TROPICAL AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD TRANSLATE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS, HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY HIGHER CHC
POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT AS PORTIONS OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVE OVER MIDDLE TN TOWARDS N AL. HOWEVER, THE
COMPLEX DOES LOOK TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES DUE TO THE LACK OF A
LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ORIGINATING FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD PLAY A ROLE WITH MAINTAINING
DEEP CONVECTION INITIALLY, BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MEAN FLOW.

THOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SYNOPTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST, ANY
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN, PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORMS.
FURTHERMORE, A WEAK 500-400 MB IMPULSE IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS AS
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE TN VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--POSSIBLY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

SYNOPTICALLY, THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE BUILDING
WEST OVER THE SOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY SENDING THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO
BRING BACK SUMMER WITH VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. IN FACT, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN 100-104 ON THURSDAY AND MAY NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY IF DEWPOINTS OR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER IN
LATER MODEL RUNS.

THEN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, BY FRIDAY NIGHT A POSITIVELY
TILTED AXIS LOCATED FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST ACTING TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
AND SHIFT IT WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING A SFC COLD FRONT SE OVER THE
OH RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, BUT
IT LOOKS TO BE MORE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE
SOUNDING PROFILE. THUS, HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, TAILORED POPS DOWNWARD WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING/MONDAY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
AIR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE FORECAST (LOWERED SLIGHTLY)
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BRING BETTER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING. BRIEFLY REDUCED
VIS/CIG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CONVECTION.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 021145 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO THE CORN BELT REGION AND E KS/N OK. A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW
PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO THE WEST OF
THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE OVER THE ATLANTIC, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXISTS
FROM MAINE/E ONTARIO TO EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

IN ADDITION, TS DOLLY HAS FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST.

SL.77

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE EASTWARD WITH THE ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY, CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION, AN ANTECEDENT
TROPICAL AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD TRANSLATE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS, HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY HIGHER CHC
POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT AS PORTIONS OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVE OVER MIDDLE TN TOWARDS N AL. HOWEVER, THE
COMPLEX DOES LOOK TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES DUE TO THE LACK OF A
LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ORIGINATING FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD PLAY A ROLE WITH MAINTAINING
DEEP CONVECTION INITIALLY, BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MEAN FLOW.

THOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SYNOPTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST, ANY
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN, PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORMS.
FURTHERMORE, A WEAK 500-400 MB IMPULSE IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS AS
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE TN VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--POSSIBLY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

SYNOPTICALLY, THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE BUILDING
WEST OVER THE SOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY SENDING THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO
BRING BACK SUMMER WITH VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. IN FACT, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN 100-104 ON THURSDAY AND MAY NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY IF DEWPOINTS OR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER IN
LATER MODEL RUNS.

THEN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, BY FRIDAY NIGHT A POSITIVELY
TILTED AXIS LOCATED FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST ACTING TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
AND SHIFT IT WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING A SFC COLD FRONT SE OVER THE
OH RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, BUT
IT LOOKS TO BE MORE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE
SOUNDING PROFILE. THUS, HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, TAILORED POPS DOWNWARD WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING/MONDAY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
AIR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE FORECAST (LOWERED SLIGHTLY)
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BRING BETTER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING. BRIEFLY REDUCED
VIS/CIG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CONVECTION.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021128 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
628 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO REMOVE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM WWA SECTION.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TODAY AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA BY
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN TODAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND BUILD
INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES)
WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROF IN THE EASTERLIES ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
PROMOTING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES...OR ABOUT 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL.  EXPECT A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WHICH LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG EACH DAY WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING
LEADING TO COLLAPSING CORES AND POTENTIALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WELL INLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COMBINATION OF A LONGWAVE
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE GULF WEAK UPPER TROF
LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES
THROUGH SATURDAY.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STATES
UPPER TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT ALSO BRINGS A WEAK
TRAILING FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  UPPER
RIDGING GRADUALLY RECOVERS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PERSISTING NEAR 2.0 INCHES.  SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
COVERAGE POTENTIALLY ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW PERSISTS UNTIL WINDS
TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND THEN RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE WEEK. SEAS SUBSIDE SLOWLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  74  93  74  92 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  76  92 /  30  20  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  78  92  77  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  72  94  71  93 /  40  20  50  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   94  72  94  71  94 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 021128 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
628 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO REMOVE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM WWA SECTION.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TODAY AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA BY
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN TODAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND BUILD
INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES)
WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROF IN THE EASTERLIES ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
PROMOTING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES...OR ABOUT 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL.  EXPECT A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WHICH LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG EACH DAY WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING
LEADING TO COLLAPSING CORES AND POTENTIALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WELL INLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COMBINATION OF A LONGWAVE
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE GULF WEAK UPPER TROF
LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES
THROUGH SATURDAY.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STATES
UPPER TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT ALSO BRINGS A WEAK
TRAILING FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  UPPER
RIDGING GRADUALLY RECOVERS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PERSISTING NEAR 2.0 INCHES.  SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
COVERAGE POTENTIALLY ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW PERSISTS UNTIL WINDS
TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND THEN RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE WEEK. SEAS SUBSIDE SLOWLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  74  93  74  92 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  76  92 /  30  20  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  78  92  77  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  72  94  71  93 /  40  20  50  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   94  72  94  71  94 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 021020
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
520 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE STILL SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS ONGOING ACROSS INDIANA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...TS
DOLLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD MEXICO.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST BEFORE REACHING
CENTRAL ALABAMA AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL NORTH OF THE FLATTENED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH WE WON`T HAVE THE FRONT IN OUR CWA TO
HELP PROVIDE LIFT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION TODAY. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE ONGOING MCS COULD ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE SUN SETS. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THRU FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH
TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. LIFT PROVIDED BY
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY POPS COULD END UP BEING HIGHER THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR ONE OR MORE OF THESE PERIODS.
ALTHOUGH TRUE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
FRONT INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORM MAY POSE A THREAT TO TAF SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY VCTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  68  93  70  91 /  30  20  40  20  40
ANNISTON    93  70  93  71  93 /  30  20  40  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  74  94  73  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  72  95  71  95 /  30  20  40  20  40
CALERA      93  72  93  72  93 /  30  20  40  20  40
AUBURN      93  73  92  72  92 /  30  20  40  20  40
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  95 /  30  20  40  20  40
TROY        94  71  94  72  92 /  30  20  40  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 021020
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
520 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE STILL SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS ONGOING ACROSS INDIANA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...TS
DOLLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD MEXICO.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST BEFORE REACHING
CENTRAL ALABAMA AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL NORTH OF THE FLATTENED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH WE WON`T HAVE THE FRONT IN OUR CWA TO
HELP PROVIDE LIFT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION TODAY. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE ONGOING MCS COULD ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE SUN SETS. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THRU FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH
TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. LIFT PROVIDED BY
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY POPS COULD END UP BEING HIGHER THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR ONE OR MORE OF THESE PERIODS.
ALTHOUGH TRUE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
FRONT INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORM MAY POSE A THREAT TO TAF SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY VCTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  68  93  70  91 /  30  20  40  20  40
ANNISTON    93  70  93  71  93 /  30  20  40  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  74  94  73  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  72  95  71  95 /  30  20  40  20  40
CALERA      93  72  93  72  93 /  30  20  40  20  40
AUBURN      93  73  92  72  92 /  30  20  40  20  40
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  95 /  30  20  40  20  40
TROY        94  71  94  72  92 /  30  20  40  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 020845
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TODAY AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA BY
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN TODAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND BUILD
INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES)
WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROF IN THE EASTERLIES ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
PROMOTING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES...OR ABOUT 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL.  EXPECT A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WHICH LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG EACH DAY WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING
LEADING TO COLLAPSING CORES AND POTENTIALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WELL INLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COMBINATION OF A LONGWAVE
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE GULF WEAK UPPER TROF
LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES
THROUGH SATURDAY.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STATES
UPPER TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT ALSO BRINGS A WEAK
TRAILING FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  UPPER
RIDGING GRADUALLY RECOVERS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PERSISTING NEAR 2.0 INCHES.  SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
COVERAGE POTENTIALLY ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW PERSISTS UNTIL WINDS
TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND THEN RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE WEEK. SEAS SUBSIDE SLOWLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  74  93  74  92 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  76  92 /  30  20  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  78  92  77  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  72  94  71  93 /  40  20  50  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   94  72  94  71  94 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 020845
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TODAY AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA BY
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN TODAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND BUILD
INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES)
WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROF IN THE EASTERLIES ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
PROMOTING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES...OR ABOUT 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL.  EXPECT A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WHICH LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG EACH DAY WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING
LEADING TO COLLAPSING CORES AND POTENTIALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WELL INLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COMBINATION OF A LONGWAVE
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE GULF WEAK UPPER TROF
LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES
THROUGH SATURDAY.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STATES
UPPER TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT ALSO BRINGS A WEAK
TRAILING FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  UPPER
RIDGING GRADUALLY RECOVERS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PERSISTING NEAR 2.0 INCHES.  SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
COVERAGE POTENTIALLY ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW PERSISTS UNTIL WINDS
TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND THEN RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE WEEK. SEAS SUBSIDE SLOWLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  74  93  74  92 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  76  92 /  30  20  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  78  92  77  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  72  94  71  93 /  40  20  50  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   94  72  94  71  94 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 020845
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TODAY AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA BY
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN TODAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND BUILD
INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES)
WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROF IN THE EASTERLIES ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
PROMOTING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES...OR ABOUT 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL.  EXPECT A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WHICH LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG EACH DAY WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING
LEADING TO COLLAPSING CORES AND POTENTIALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WELL INLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COMBINATION OF A LONGWAVE
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE GULF WEAK UPPER TROF
LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES
THROUGH SATURDAY.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STATES
UPPER TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT ALSO BRINGS A WEAK
TRAILING FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  UPPER
RIDGING GRADUALLY RECOVERS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PERSISTING NEAR 2.0 INCHES.  SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
COVERAGE POTENTIALLY ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW PERSISTS UNTIL WINDS
TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND THEN RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE WEEK. SEAS SUBSIDE SLOWLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  74  93  74  92 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  76  92 /  30  20  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  78  92  77  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  72  94  71  93 /  40  20  50  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   94  72  94  71  94 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 020845
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TODAY AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA BY
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN TODAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND BUILD
INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES)
WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROF IN THE EASTERLIES ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
PROMOTING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES...OR ABOUT 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL.  EXPECT A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WHICH LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG EACH DAY WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING
LEADING TO COLLAPSING CORES AND POTENTIALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WELL INLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COMBINATION OF A LONGWAVE
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE GULF WEAK UPPER TROF
LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES
THROUGH SATURDAY.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STATES
UPPER TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT ALSO BRINGS A WEAK
TRAILING FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  UPPER
RIDGING GRADUALLY RECOVERS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PERSISTING NEAR 2.0 INCHES.  SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
COVERAGE POTENTIALLY ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW PERSISTS UNTIL WINDS
TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND THEN RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE WEEK. SEAS SUBSIDE SLOWLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  74  93  74  92 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  76  92 /  30  20  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  78  92  77  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  72  94  71  93 /  40  20  50  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  95  71  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   94  72  94  71  94 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHUN 020801
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
301 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO THE CORN BELT REGION AND E KS/N OK. A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW
PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO THE WEST OF
THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE OVER THE ATLANTIC, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXISTS
FROM MAINE/E ONTARIO TO EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

IN ADDITION, TS DOLLY HAS FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE EASTWARD WITH THE ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY, CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION, AN ANTECEDENT
TROPICAL AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD TRANSLATE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS, HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY HIGHER CHC
POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT AS PORTIONS OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVE OVER MIDDLE TN TOWARDS N AL. HOWEVER, THE
COMPLEX DOES LOOK TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES DUE TO THE LACK OF A
LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ORIGINATING FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD PLAY A ROLE WITH MAINTAINING
DEEP CONVECTION INITIALLY, BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MEAN FLOW.

THOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SYNOPTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST, ANY
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN, PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORMS.
FURTHERMORE, A WEAK 500-400 MB IMPULSE IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS AS
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE TN VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--POSSIBLY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

SYNOPTICALLY, THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE BUILDING
WEST OVER THE SOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY SENDING THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO
BRING BACK SUMMER WITH VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. IN FACT, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN 100-104 ON THURSDAY AND MAY NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY IF DEWPOINTS OR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER IN
LATER MODEL RUNS.

THEN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, BY FRIDAY NIGHT A POSITIVELY
TILTED AXIS LOCATED FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST ACTING TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
AND SHIFT IT WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING A SFC COLD FRONT SE OVER THE
OH RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, BUT
IT LOOKS TO BE MORE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE
SOUNDING PROFILE. THUS, HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, TAILORED POPS DOWNWARD WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING/MONDAY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
AIR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE FORECAST (LOWERED SLIGHTLY)
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS... PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
KMSL AND KHSV FROM 09-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THRU THE PD. ISOLD-SCT TSRA ARE PSBL TUESDAY AFTN...BUT THE PROB
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    92  70  92  70 /  20  30  40  20
SHOALS        93  71  93  71 /  20  40  40  20
VINEMONT      92  70  92  70 /  20  30  40  20
FAYETTEVILLE  90  68  90  69 /  20  40  40  20
ALBERTVILLE   89  70  90  70 /  20  30  40  20
FORT PAYNE    91  69  91  69 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020801
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
301 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO THE CORN BELT REGION AND E KS/N OK. A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW
PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO THE WEST OF
THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE OVER THE ATLANTIC, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXISTS
FROM MAINE/E ONTARIO TO EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

IN ADDITION, TS DOLLY HAS FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE EASTWARD WITH THE ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY, CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION, AN ANTECEDENT
TROPICAL AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD TRANSLATE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS, HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY HIGHER CHC
POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT AS PORTIONS OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVE OVER MIDDLE TN TOWARDS N AL. HOWEVER, THE
COMPLEX DOES LOOK TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES DUE TO THE LACK OF A
LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ORIGINATING FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD PLAY A ROLE WITH MAINTAINING
DEEP CONVECTION INITIALLY, BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MEAN FLOW.

THOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SYNOPTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST, ANY
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN, PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORMS.
FURTHERMORE, A WEAK 500-400 MB IMPULSE IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS AS
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE TN VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--POSSIBLY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

SYNOPTICALLY, THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE BUILDING
WEST OVER THE SOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY SENDING THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO
BRING BACK SUMMER WITH VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. IN FACT, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN 100-104 ON THURSDAY AND MAY NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY IF DEWPOINTS OR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER IN
LATER MODEL RUNS.

THEN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, BY FRIDAY NIGHT A POSITIVELY
TILTED AXIS LOCATED FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST ACTING TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
AND SHIFT IT WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING A SFC COLD FRONT SE OVER THE
OH RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, BUT
IT LOOKS TO BE MORE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE
SOUNDING PROFILE. THUS, HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, TAILORED POPS DOWNWARD WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING/MONDAY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
AIR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE FORECAST (LOWERED SLIGHTLY)
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS... PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
KMSL AND KHSV FROM 09-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THRU THE PD. ISOLD-SCT TSRA ARE PSBL TUESDAY AFTN...BUT THE PROB
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    92  70  92  70 /  20  30  40  20
SHOALS        93  71  93  71 /  20  40  40  20
VINEMONT      92  70  92  70 /  20  30  40  20
FAYETTEVILLE  90  68  90  69 /  20  40  40  20
ALBERTVILLE   89  70  90  70 /  20  30  40  20
FORT PAYNE    91  69  91  69 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020801
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
301 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO THE CORN BELT REGION AND E KS/N OK. A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW
PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO THE WEST OF
THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE OVER THE ATLANTIC, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXISTS
FROM MAINE/E ONTARIO TO EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

IN ADDITION, TS DOLLY HAS FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE EASTWARD WITH THE ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY, CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION, AN ANTECEDENT
TROPICAL AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD TRANSLATE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS, HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY HIGHER CHC
POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT AS PORTIONS OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVE OVER MIDDLE TN TOWARDS N AL. HOWEVER, THE
COMPLEX DOES LOOK TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES DUE TO THE LACK OF A
LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ORIGINATING FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD PLAY A ROLE WITH MAINTAINING
DEEP CONVECTION INITIALLY, BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MEAN FLOW.

THOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SYNOPTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST, ANY
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN, PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORMS.
FURTHERMORE, A WEAK 500-400 MB IMPULSE IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS AS
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE TN VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--POSSIBLY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

SYNOPTICALLY, THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE BUILDING
WEST OVER THE SOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY SENDING THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO
BRING BACK SUMMER WITH VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. IN FACT, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN 100-104 ON THURSDAY AND MAY NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY IF DEWPOINTS OR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER IN
LATER MODEL RUNS.

THEN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, BY FRIDAY NIGHT A POSITIVELY
TILTED AXIS LOCATED FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST ACTING TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
AND SHIFT IT WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING A SFC COLD FRONT SE OVER THE
OH RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, BUT
IT LOOKS TO BE MORE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE
SOUNDING PROFILE. THUS, HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, TAILORED POPS DOWNWARD WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING/MONDAY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
AIR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE FORECAST (LOWERED SLIGHTLY)
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS... PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
KMSL AND KHSV FROM 09-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THRU THE PD. ISOLD-SCT TSRA ARE PSBL TUESDAY AFTN...BUT THE PROB
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    92  70  92  70 /  20  30  40  20
SHOALS        93  71  93  71 /  20  40  40  20
VINEMONT      92  70  92  70 /  20  30  40  20
FAYETTEVILLE  90  68  90  69 /  20  40  40  20
ALBERTVILLE   89  70  90  70 /  20  30  40  20
FORT PAYNE    91  69  91  69 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020801
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
301 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO THE CORN BELT REGION AND E KS/N OK. A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW
PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO THE WEST OF
THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE OVER THE ATLANTIC, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXISTS
FROM MAINE/E ONTARIO TO EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

IN ADDITION, TS DOLLY HAS FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE EASTWARD WITH THE ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY, CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION, AN ANTECEDENT
TROPICAL AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD TRANSLATE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS, HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY HIGHER CHC
POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT AS PORTIONS OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVE OVER MIDDLE TN TOWARDS N AL. HOWEVER, THE
COMPLEX DOES LOOK TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES DUE TO THE LACK OF A
LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ORIGINATING FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD PLAY A ROLE WITH MAINTAINING
DEEP CONVECTION INITIALLY, BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MEAN FLOW.

THOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SYNOPTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST, ANY
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN, PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORMS.
FURTHERMORE, A WEAK 500-400 MB IMPULSE IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS AS
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE TN VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--POSSIBLY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

SYNOPTICALLY, THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE BUILDING
WEST OVER THE SOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY SENDING THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO
BRING BACK SUMMER WITH VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. IN FACT, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN 100-104 ON THURSDAY AND MAY NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY IF DEWPOINTS OR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER IN
LATER MODEL RUNS.

THEN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, BY FRIDAY NIGHT A POSITIVELY
TILTED AXIS LOCATED FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST ACTING TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
AND SHIFT IT WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING A SFC COLD FRONT SE OVER THE
OH RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, BUT
IT LOOKS TO BE MORE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE
SOUNDING PROFILE. THUS, HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, TAILORED POPS DOWNWARD WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING/MONDAY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
AIR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE FORECAST (LOWERED SLIGHTLY)
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS... PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
KMSL AND KHSV FROM 09-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THRU THE PD. ISOLD-SCT TSRA ARE PSBL TUESDAY AFTN...BUT THE PROB
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    92  70  92  70 /  20  30  40  20
SHOALS        93  71  93  71 /  20  40  40  20
VINEMONT      92  70  92  70 /  20  30  40  20
FAYETTEVILLE  90  68  90  69 /  20  40  40  20
ALBERTVILLE   89  70  90  70 /  20  30  40  20
FORT PAYNE    91  69  91  69 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020511 AAD
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 931 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
ISOLD CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED IN NERN AL. A BAND OF RESIDUAL CLOUDS
REMAINS IN THIS AREA BUT THE CHC OF REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
WANING. MUGGY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH CURRENT TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE M-U70S. VERY MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF A 2-3MB PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE TN VALLEY LEANS AGAINST DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG. LOOK FOR
OUR TYPICAL FOG PRONE DRAINAGE RIVER VALLEYS TO EXPERIENCE THE MOST
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN THE HSV URBAN HEAT ISLAND.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
KMSL AND KHSV FROM 09-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THRU THE PD. ISOLD-SCT TSRA ARE PSBL TUESDAY AFTN...BUT THE PROB
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020511 AAD
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 931 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
ISOLD CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED IN NERN AL. A BAND OF RESIDUAL CLOUDS
REMAINS IN THIS AREA BUT THE CHC OF REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
WANING. MUGGY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH CURRENT TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE M-U70S. VERY MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF A 2-3MB PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE TN VALLEY LEANS AGAINST DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG. LOOK FOR
OUR TYPICAL FOG PRONE DRAINAGE RIVER VALLEYS TO EXPERIENCE THE MOST
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN THE HSV URBAN HEAT ISLAND.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
KMSL AND KHSV FROM 09-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THRU THE PD. ISOLD-SCT TSRA ARE PSBL TUESDAY AFTN...BUT THE PROB
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 020451
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH DONE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER US.
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE REMOVED POP MENTION FROM GRIDS/ZONES. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ENCOURAGE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORM MAY POSE A THREAT TO TAF SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY VCTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020451
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH DONE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER US.
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE REMOVED POP MENTION FROM GRIDS/ZONES. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ENCOURAGE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORM MAY POSE A THREAT TO TAF SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY VCTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020451
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH DONE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER US.
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE REMOVED POP MENTION FROM GRIDS/ZONES. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ENCOURAGE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORM MAY POSE A THREAT TO TAF SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY VCTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020451
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH DONE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER US.
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE REMOVED POP MENTION FROM GRIDS/ZONES. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ENCOURAGE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORM MAY POSE A THREAT TO TAF SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY VCTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87





000
FXUS64 KMOB 020424 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION [02.06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH BASE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
DECAYED STORMS OVER MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA PERSISTS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIG BASES MAINLY AT MID TO
HIGH LEVELS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGE
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ESSENTIALLY...THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING EVER SO SLIGHTLY INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE EAST CUTS OFF INTO A CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOWER PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPERIENCES A MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY SUBTLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CELL TO OUR EAST AND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN SRN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW BACK INTO SCATTERED CATEGORY REGION WIDE (AND 40-50% ALONG NW
FL PANHANDLE SEA-BREEZE). THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A GENERAL
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
BEGINNING FIRST ALONG THE COAST BY NOON AND PROPAGATING INLAND WITH
TIME. BASED ON PERFORMANCE OF LAST NIGHT`S MIN TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO
GUIDANCE...WENT A TAD CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S DEG(F) OVER THE
INTERIOR TO NEAR 89 DEG(F) ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEK...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE MORNING ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON FURTHER INLAND. STORMS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND
SHIFT WEST TOWARD TEXAS AS ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS
THE MID WEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SFC TROUGH DRAPED OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THAT WILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT/SUN IN THE
PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH...THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGING...AND
PERSISTENT PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 2 INCHES.

HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WED/THU WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...A
LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY NEXT MONDAY ON HOW FAST THE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS
TIME...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. 34/JFB

MARINE...THE 8 SEC SWELL IS DRIVING THE BULK OF THE 3-4 FEET SIG
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH MAINLY SLOW ROLLERS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY WEB CAMS
AROUND THE REGION). THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMED BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW GLFMEX DECREASES.
OTHERWISE... REGION GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS DECREASE IN SPEED
ON WEDNESDAY...AND ARE EVEN ENE-NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CELL CLOSES OFF JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. WINDS
THEN RETURN TO AN ESE-SE DIRECTION BETWEEN MID- AND LATE-WEEK. NO
HAZARDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  74  93  74 /  10  30  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  76  93  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
DESTIN      78  90  80  91  78 /  10  20  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   71  94  72  95  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
CAMDEN      72  94  71  95  71 /  10  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  95  72  95  70 /  10  50  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 020424 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION [02.06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH BASE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
DECAYED STORMS OVER MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA PERSISTS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIG BASES MAINLY AT MID TO
HIGH LEVELS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGE
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ESSENTIALLY...THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING EVER SO SLIGHTLY INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE EAST CUTS OFF INTO A CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOWER PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPERIENCES A MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY SUBTLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CELL TO OUR EAST AND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN SRN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW BACK INTO SCATTERED CATEGORY REGION WIDE (AND 40-50% ALONG NW
FL PANHANDLE SEA-BREEZE). THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A GENERAL
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
BEGINNING FIRST ALONG THE COAST BY NOON AND PROPAGATING INLAND WITH
TIME. BASED ON PERFORMANCE OF LAST NIGHT`S MIN TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO
GUIDANCE...WENT A TAD CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S DEG(F) OVER THE
INTERIOR TO NEAR 89 DEG(F) ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEK...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE MORNING ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON FURTHER INLAND. STORMS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND
SHIFT WEST TOWARD TEXAS AS ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS
THE MID WEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SFC TROUGH DRAPED OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THAT WILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT/SUN IN THE
PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH...THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGING...AND
PERSISTENT PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 2 INCHES.

HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WED/THU WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...A
LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY NEXT MONDAY ON HOW FAST THE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS
TIME...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. 34/JFB

MARINE...THE 8 SEC SWELL IS DRIVING THE BULK OF THE 3-4 FEET SIG
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH MAINLY SLOW ROLLERS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY WEB CAMS
AROUND THE REGION). THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMED BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW GLFMEX DECREASES.
OTHERWISE... REGION GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS DECREASE IN SPEED
ON WEDNESDAY...AND ARE EVEN ENE-NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CELL CLOSES OFF JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. WINDS
THEN RETURN TO AN ESE-SE DIRECTION BETWEEN MID- AND LATE-WEEK. NO
HAZARDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  74  93  74 /  10  30  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  76  93  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
DESTIN      78  90  80  91  78 /  10  20  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   71  94  72  95  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
CAMDEN      72  94  71  95  71 /  10  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  95  72  95  70 /  10  50  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 020302 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1002 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH DONE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER US.
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE REMOVED POP MENTION FROM GRIDS/ZONES. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ENCOURAGE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORM MAY POSE A THREAT TO TAF SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY VCTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN IT TO GET POCKETS
OF CONVECTION...SUCH AS TODAY. THERE COULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE SOME
WEAK VORTICITY AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVEL TRAVERSES THE AREA
INCREASING THE COVERAGE. THE MODELS SORTA HINTED AT THIS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK SCATTERED POPS
STILL A GOOD OPTION AT THIS POINT. THE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OFF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
ARE GOING TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

NEXT WEEKEND...SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO
PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE STATE SO SOME HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED
LATER ON FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 90 AND 70.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  92  68  93  68 /  10  20  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  93  70  93  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  73  93  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  95  72  95  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
CALERA      72  93  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
AUBURN      72  93  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  95  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TROY        70  94  71  94  72 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87/88






000
FXUS64 KBMX 020302 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1002 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH DONE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER US.
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE REMOVED POP MENTION FROM GRIDS/ZONES. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ENCOURAGE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORM MAY POSE A THREAT TO TAF SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY VCTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN IT TO GET POCKETS
OF CONVECTION...SUCH AS TODAY. THERE COULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE SOME
WEAK VORTICITY AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVEL TRAVERSES THE AREA
INCREASING THE COVERAGE. THE MODELS SORTA HINTED AT THIS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK SCATTERED POPS
STILL A GOOD OPTION AT THIS POINT. THE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OFF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
ARE GOING TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

NEXT WEEKEND...SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO
PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE STATE SO SOME HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED
LATER ON FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 90 AND 70.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  92  68  93  68 /  10  20  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  93  70  93  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  73  93  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  95  72  95  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
CALERA      72  93  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
AUBURN      72  93  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  95  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TROY        70  94  71  94  72 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/87/88





000
FXUS64 KHUN 020231 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
931 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND ADD PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED IN NERN AL. A BAND OF RESIDUAL CLOUDS
REMAINS IN THIS AREA BUT THE CHC OF REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
WANING. MUGGY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH CURRENT TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE M-U70S. VERY MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF A 2-3MB PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE TN VALLEY LEANS AGAINST DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG. LOOK FOR
OUR TYPICAL FOG PRONE DRAINAGE RIVER VALLEYS TO EXPERIENCE THE MOST
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN THE HSV URBAN HEAT ISLAND.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 605 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020231 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
931 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND ADD PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED IN NERN AL. A BAND OF RESIDUAL CLOUDS
REMAINS IN THIS AREA BUT THE CHC OF REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
WANING. MUGGY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH CURRENT TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE M-U70S. VERY MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF A 2-3MB PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE TN VALLEY LEANS AGAINST DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG. LOOK FOR
OUR TYPICAL FOG PRONE DRAINAGE RIVER VALLEYS TO EXPERIENCE THE MOST
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN THE HSV URBAN HEAT ISLAND.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 605 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020231 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
931 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND ADD PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED IN NERN AL. A BAND OF RESIDUAL CLOUDS
REMAINS IN THIS AREA BUT THE CHC OF REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
WANING. MUGGY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH CURRENT TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE M-U70S. VERY MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF A 2-3MB PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE TN VALLEY LEANS AGAINST DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG. LOOK FOR
OUR TYPICAL FOG PRONE DRAINAGE RIVER VALLEYS TO EXPERIENCE THE MOST
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN THE HSV URBAN HEAT ISLAND.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 605 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020231 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
931 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND ADD PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED IN NERN AL. A BAND OF RESIDUAL CLOUDS
REMAINS IN THIS AREA BUT THE CHC OF REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
WANING. MUGGY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH CURRENT TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE M-U70S. VERY MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF A 2-3MB PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE TN VALLEY LEANS AGAINST DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG. LOOK FOR
OUR TYPICAL FOG PRONE DRAINAGE RIVER VALLEYS TO EXPERIENCE THE MOST
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN THE HSV URBAN HEAT ISLAND.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 605 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020043 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
743 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE ISOLD T IN NERN AL THRU 03Z. ALSO UPDATED HOURLY T/TD
TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN SRN MARSHALL AND
SWRN DEKALB COUNTIES. I FULLY EXPECT THESE TO DIE OFF SOON WITH LOSS
OF HEATING, ALTHOUGH THE 18Z NAM SUGGESTED OTHERWISE. WE`LL PUSH
ISOLATED T THRU 03Z IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. WE ALSO UPDATED HOURLY
T/TD TRENDS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST, PARTICULARLY IN NWRN/NC
AL. CERTAINLY A MUGGY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LATE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 605 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OVERALL MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. OTHERWISE TEMPS WERE ARND
90 WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHRA OVER NW GA MOVING NE
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN GA THRU
SRN AL. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT DUE TO
LACK OF ANY GOOD TRIGGERS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP
PATCHY FOG BUT COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY A WEAK TROF/CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE CWA INCREASING THE CHC
OF SCT SHRA/TSRA. GFS HINTS THAT THE CDFNT WILL PROBABLY WASH OUT
JUST NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...THE JET STREAM WILL BE OVER THE NRN TIER OF
STATES WITH A DIRTY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE SERN US. WILL KEEP A LOW
POP IN FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA.

BY SATURDAY MRNG A CDFNT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU MO
AND INTO NRN TX. GFS HAS THE CDFNT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MRNG. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT
ALONG WITH A LITTLE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL NOT COOL OFF
THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS ARND 90 AND LOWS NEAR 70...A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY SETUP ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH...ALONG WITH MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA.

IN A NUT SHELL IT LOOKS LIKE A LATE SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTN/EVENING
SHRA/TSRA AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 020043 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
743 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE ISOLD T IN NERN AL THRU 03Z. ALSO UPDATED HOURLY T/TD
TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN SRN MARSHALL AND
SWRN DEKALB COUNTIES. I FULLY EXPECT THESE TO DIE OFF SOON WITH LOSS
OF HEATING, ALTHOUGH THE 18Z NAM SUGGESTED OTHERWISE. WE`LL PUSH
ISOLATED T THRU 03Z IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. WE ALSO UPDATED HOURLY
T/TD TRENDS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST, PARTICULARLY IN NWRN/NC
AL. CERTAINLY A MUGGY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LATE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 605 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OVERALL MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. OTHERWISE TEMPS WERE ARND
90 WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHRA OVER NW GA MOVING NE
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN GA THRU
SRN AL. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT DUE TO
LACK OF ANY GOOD TRIGGERS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP
PATCHY FOG BUT COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY A WEAK TROF/CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE CWA INCREASING THE CHC
OF SCT SHRA/TSRA. GFS HINTS THAT THE CDFNT WILL PROBABLY WASH OUT
JUST NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...THE JET STREAM WILL BE OVER THE NRN TIER OF
STATES WITH A DIRTY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE SERN US. WILL KEEP A LOW
POP IN FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA.

BY SATURDAY MRNG A CDFNT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU MO
AND INTO NRN TX. GFS HAS THE CDFNT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MRNG. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT
ALONG WITH A LITTLE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL NOT COOL OFF
THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS ARND 90 AND LOWS NEAR 70...A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY SETUP ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH...ALONG WITH MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA.

IN A NUT SHELL IT LOOKS LIKE A LATE SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTN/EVENING
SHRA/TSRA AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 012346 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
646 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION [02.00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...TSRA OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MISSISSIPPI AND BACK INTO LOUISIANA HAS RESULTED IN CLOUD DEBRIS OF
MULTIPLE HEIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WILL CARRY THIS IN THE
SHORT TERM. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BASES MAINLY AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS.
ISOLATED EVENING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHEAST WIND 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING...BECOMES LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGE
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ESSENTIALLY...THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING EVER SO SLIGHTLY INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE EAST CUTS OFF INTO A CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOWER PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPERIENCES A MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY SUBTLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CELL TO OUR EAST AND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN SRN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW BACK INTO SCATTERED CATEGORY REGION WIDE (AND 40-50% ALONG NW
FL PANHANDLE SEA-BREEZE). THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A GENERAL
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
BEGINNING FIRST ALONG THE COAST BY NOON AND PROPAGATING INLAND WITH
TIME. BASED ON PERFORMANCE OF LAST NIGHT`S MIN TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO
GUIDANCE...WENT A TAD CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S DEG(F) OVER THE
INTERIOR TO NEAR 89 DEG(F) ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEK...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE MORNING ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON FURTHER INLAND. STORMS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND
SHIFT WEST TOWARD TEXAS AS ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS
THE MID WEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SFC TROUGH DRAPED OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THAT WILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT/SUN IN THE
PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH...THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGING...AND
PERSISTENT PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 2 INCHES.

HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WED/THU WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...A
LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY NEXT MONDAY ON HOW FAST THE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS
TIME...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. 34/JFB

MARINE...THE 8 SEC SWELL IS DRIVING THE BULK OF THE 3-4 FEET SIG
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH MAINLY SLOW ROLLERS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY WEB CAMS
AROUND THE REGION). THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMED BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW GLFMEX DECREASES.
OTHERWISE... REGION GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS DECREASE IN SPEED
ON WEDNESDAY...AND ARE EVEN ENE-NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CELL CLOSES OFF JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. WINDS
THEN RETURN TO AN ESE-SE DIRECTION BETWEEN MID- AND LATE-WEEK. NO
HAZARDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  74  93  74 /  10  30  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  76  93  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
DESTIN      78  90  80  91  78 /  10  20  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   71  94  72  95  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
CAMDEN      72  94  71  95  71 /  10  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  95  72  95  70 /  10  50  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 012346 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
646 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION [02.00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...TSRA OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MISSISSIPPI AND BACK INTO LOUISIANA HAS RESULTED IN CLOUD DEBRIS OF
MULTIPLE HEIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WILL CARRY THIS IN THE
SHORT TERM. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BASES MAINLY AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS.
ISOLATED EVENING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHEAST WIND 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING...BECOMES LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGE
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ESSENTIALLY...THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING EVER SO SLIGHTLY INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE EAST CUTS OFF INTO A CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOWER PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPERIENCES A MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY SUBTLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CELL TO OUR EAST AND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN SRN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW BACK INTO SCATTERED CATEGORY REGION WIDE (AND 40-50% ALONG NW
FL PANHANDLE SEA-BREEZE). THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A GENERAL
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
BEGINNING FIRST ALONG THE COAST BY NOON AND PROPAGATING INLAND WITH
TIME. BASED ON PERFORMANCE OF LAST NIGHT`S MIN TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO
GUIDANCE...WENT A TAD CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S DEG(F) OVER THE
INTERIOR TO NEAR 89 DEG(F) ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEK...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE MORNING ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON FURTHER INLAND. STORMS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND
SHIFT WEST TOWARD TEXAS AS ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS
THE MID WEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SFC TROUGH DRAPED OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THAT WILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT/SUN IN THE
PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH...THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGING...AND
PERSISTENT PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 2 INCHES.

HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WED/THU WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...A
LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY NEXT MONDAY ON HOW FAST THE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS
TIME...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. 34/JFB

MARINE...THE 8 SEC SWELL IS DRIVING THE BULK OF THE 3-4 FEET SIG
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH MAINLY SLOW ROLLERS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY WEB CAMS
AROUND THE REGION). THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMED BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW GLFMEX DECREASES.
OTHERWISE... REGION GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS DECREASE IN SPEED
ON WEDNESDAY...AND ARE EVEN ENE-NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CELL CLOSES OFF JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. WINDS
THEN RETURN TO AN ESE-SE DIRECTION BETWEEN MID- AND LATE-WEEK. NO
HAZARDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  74  93  74 /  10  30  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  76  93  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
DESTIN      78  90  80  91  78 /  10  20  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   71  94  72  95  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
CAMDEN      72  94  71  95  71 /  10  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  95  72  95  70 /  10  50  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 012337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN IT TO GET POCKETS
OF CONVECTION...SUCH AS TODAY. THERE COULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE
SOME WEAK VORTICITY AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVEL TRAVERSES THE
AREA INCREASING THE COVERAGE. THE MODELS SORTA HINTED AT THIS THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK SCATTERED
POPS STILL A GOOD OPTION AT THIS POINT. THE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OFF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK ARE GOING TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

NEXT WEEKEND...SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO
PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE STATE SO SOME HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED
LATER ON FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 90 AND 70.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORM MAY POSE A THREAT TO TAF SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY VCTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

88/87






000
FXUS64 KBMX 012337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN IT TO GET POCKETS
OF CONVECTION...SUCH AS TODAY. THERE COULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE
SOME WEAK VORTICITY AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVEL TRAVERSES THE
AREA INCREASING THE COVERAGE. THE MODELS SORTA HINTED AT THIS THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK SCATTERED
POPS STILL A GOOD OPTION AT THIS POINT. THE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OFF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK ARE GOING TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

NEXT WEEKEND...SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO
PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE STATE SO SOME HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED
LATER ON FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 90 AND 70.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORM MAY POSE A THREAT TO TAF SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY VCTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

88/87






000
FXUS64 KBMX 012337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN IT TO GET POCKETS
OF CONVECTION...SUCH AS TODAY. THERE COULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE
SOME WEAK VORTICITY AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVEL TRAVERSES THE
AREA INCREASING THE COVERAGE. THE MODELS SORTA HINTED AT THIS THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK SCATTERED
POPS STILL A GOOD OPTION AT THIS POINT. THE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OFF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK ARE GOING TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

NEXT WEEKEND...SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO
PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE STATE SO SOME HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED
LATER ON FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 90 AND 70.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORM MAY POSE A THREAT TO TAF SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY VCTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

88/87






000
FXUS64 KBMX 012337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN IT TO GET POCKETS
OF CONVECTION...SUCH AS TODAY. THERE COULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE
SOME WEAK VORTICITY AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVEL TRAVERSES THE
AREA INCREASING THE COVERAGE. THE MODELS SORTA HINTED AT THIS THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK SCATTERED
POPS STILL A GOOD OPTION AT THIS POINT. THE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OFF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK ARE GOING TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

NEXT WEEKEND...SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO
PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE STATE SO SOME HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED
LATER ON FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 90 AND 70.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORM MAY POSE A THREAT TO TAF SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY VCTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

88/87






000
FXUS64 KHUN 012305 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
605 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OVERALL MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. OTHERWISE TEMPS WERE ARND
90 WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHRA OVER NW GA MOVING NE
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN GA THRU
SRN AL. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT DUE TO
LACK OF ANY GOOD TRIGGERS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP
PATCHY FOG BUT COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY A WEAK TROF/CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE CWA INCREASING THE CHC
OF SCT SHRA/TSRA. GFS HINTS THAT THE CDFNT WILL PROBABLY WASH OUT
JUST NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...THE JET STREAM WILL BE OVER THE NRN TIER OF
STATES WITH A DIRTY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE SERN US. WILL KEEP A LOW
POP IN FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA.

BY SATURDAY MRNG A CDFNT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU MO
AND INTO NRN TX. GFS HAS THE CDFNT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MRNG. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT
ALONG WITH A LITTLE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL NOT COOL OFF
THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS ARND 90 AND LOWS NEAR 70...A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY SETUP ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH...ALONG WITH MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA.

IN A NUT SHELL IT LOOKS LIKE A LATE SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTN/EVENING
SHRA/TSRA AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 012305 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
605 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OVERALL MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. OTHERWISE TEMPS WERE ARND
90 WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHRA OVER NW GA MOVING NE
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN GA THRU
SRN AL. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT DUE TO
LACK OF ANY GOOD TRIGGERS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP
PATCHY FOG BUT COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY A WEAK TROF/CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE CWA INCREASING THE CHC
OF SCT SHRA/TSRA. GFS HINTS THAT THE CDFNT WILL PROBABLY WASH OUT
JUST NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...THE JET STREAM WILL BE OVER THE NRN TIER OF
STATES WITH A DIRTY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE SERN US. WILL KEEP A LOW
POP IN FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA.

BY SATURDAY MRNG A CDFNT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU MO
AND INTO NRN TX. GFS HAS THE CDFNT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MRNG. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT
ALONG WITH A LITTLE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL NOT COOL OFF
THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS ARND 90 AND LOWS NEAR 70...A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY SETUP ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH...ALONG WITH MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA.

IN A NUT SHELL IT LOOKS LIKE A LATE SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTN/EVENING
SHRA/TSRA AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 012013
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
313 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGE
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ESSENTIALLY...THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING EVERY SO SLIGHTLY INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE EAST CUTS OFF INTO A CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOWER PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPERIENCES A MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY SUBTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CELL TO OUR
EAST AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN SRN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TOMORROW BACK INTO SCATTERED CATEGORY REGIONWIDE (AND
40-50% ALONG NW FL PANHANDLE SEA-BREEZE). THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
GENERAL NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW BEGINNING FIRST ALONG THE COAST BY NOON AND PROPAGATING
INLAND WITH TIME. BASED ON PERFORMANCE OF LAST NIGHT`S MIN TEMPS
WITH RESPECT TO GUIDANCE...WENT A TAD CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
MAX TEMPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S DEG(F) OVER
THE INTERIOR TO NEAR 89 DEG(F) ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEK...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE MORNING ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON FURTHER INLAND. STORMS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND
SHIFT WEST TOWARD TEXAS AS ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS
THE MID WEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SFC TROUGH DRAPED OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THAT WILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT/SUN IN THE
PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH...THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGING...AND
PERSISTENT PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 2 INCHES.

HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WED/THU WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...A
LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY NEXT MONDAY ON HOW FAST THE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS
TIME...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.18Z.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND (I.E., MOVING AWAY FORM
COASTAL TERMINALS). SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO
10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15 KT (ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL
SITES) DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
(SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST). BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS
DURING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TUESDAY MORNING. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...THE 8 SEC SWELL IS DRIVING THE BULK OF THE 3-4 FEET SIG
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH MAINLY SLOW ROLLERS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY WEB CAMS
AROUND THE REGION). THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMED BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW GLFMEX DECREASES.
OTHERWISE... REGION GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS DECREASE IN
SPEED ON WEDNESDAY...AND ARE EVEN ENE-NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CLOSES OFF JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. WINDS THEN RETURN TO AN ESE-SE DIRECTION BETWEEN MID- AND
LATE-WEEK. NO HAZARDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE  HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  74  93  74 /  10  30  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  76  93  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
DESTIN      78  90  80  91  78 /  10  20  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   71  94  72  95  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
CAMDEN      72  94  71  95  71 /  10  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  95  72  95  70 /  10  50  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 012013
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
313 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGE
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ESSENTIALLY...THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING EVERY SO SLIGHTLY INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE EAST CUTS OFF INTO A CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOWER PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPERIENCES A MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY SUBTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CELL TO OUR
EAST AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN SRN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TOMORROW BACK INTO SCATTERED CATEGORY REGIONWIDE (AND
40-50% ALONG NW FL PANHANDLE SEA-BREEZE). THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
GENERAL NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW BEGINNING FIRST ALONG THE COAST BY NOON AND PROPAGATING
INLAND WITH TIME. BASED ON PERFORMANCE OF LAST NIGHT`S MIN TEMPS
WITH RESPECT TO GUIDANCE...WENT A TAD CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
MAX TEMPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S DEG(F) OVER
THE INTERIOR TO NEAR 89 DEG(F) ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEK...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE MORNING ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON FURTHER INLAND. STORMS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND
SHIFT WEST TOWARD TEXAS AS ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS
THE MID WEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SFC TROUGH DRAPED OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THAT WILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT/SUN IN THE
PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH...THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGING...AND
PERSISTENT PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 2 INCHES.

HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WED/THU WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...A
LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY NEXT MONDAY ON HOW FAST THE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS
TIME...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.18Z.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND (I.E., MOVING AWAY FORM
COASTAL TERMINALS). SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO
10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15 KT (ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL
SITES) DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
(SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST). BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS
DURING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TUESDAY MORNING. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...THE 8 SEC SWELL IS DRIVING THE BULK OF THE 3-4 FEET SIG
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH MAINLY SLOW ROLLERS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY WEB CAMS
AROUND THE REGION). THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMED BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW GLFMEX DECREASES.
OTHERWISE... REGION GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS DECREASE IN
SPEED ON WEDNESDAY...AND ARE EVEN ENE-NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CLOSES OFF JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. WINDS THEN RETURN TO AN ESE-SE DIRECTION BETWEEN MID- AND
LATE-WEEK. NO HAZARDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE  HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  74  93  74 /  10  30  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  76  93  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
DESTIN      78  90  80  91  78 /  10  20  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   71  94  72  95  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
CAMDEN      72  94  71  95  71 /  10  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  95  72  95  70 /  10  50  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 012010
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
310 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN IT TO GET POCKETS
OF CONVECTION...SUCH AS TODAY. THERE COULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE SOME
WEAK VORTICITY AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVEL TRAVERSES THE AREA
INCREASING THE COVERAGE. THE MODELS SORTA HINTED AT THIS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK SCATTERED POPS
STILL A GOOD OPTION AT THIS POINT. THE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OFF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
ARE GOING TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

NEXT WEEKEND...SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO
PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE STATE SO SOME HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED
LATER ON FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 90 AND 70.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE THE FORECAST CYCLE. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. VCTS
INCLUDED AT KANB DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE
NOT ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO MENTION CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE SOME
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS EXTREME WEST ALABAMA BY 1200 UTC...BUT
NOT SURE IF LOWER CIGS WILL REACH KTCL AND KEPT CLOUDS SCATTERED.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  92  68  93  68 /  10  20  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  93  70  93  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  93  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  95  72  95  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
CALERA      73  93  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
AUBURN      73  93  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  95  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TROY        71  94  71  94  72 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 012010
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
310 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN IT TO GET POCKETS
OF CONVECTION...SUCH AS TODAY. THERE COULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE SOME
WEAK VORTICITY AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVEL TRAVERSES THE AREA
INCREASING THE COVERAGE. THE MODELS SORTA HINTED AT THIS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK SCATTERED POPS
STILL A GOOD OPTION AT THIS POINT. THE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OFF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
ARE GOING TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

NEXT WEEKEND...SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO
PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE STATE SO SOME HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED
LATER ON FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 90 AND 70.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE THE FORECAST CYCLE. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. VCTS
INCLUDED AT KANB DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE
NOT ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO MENTION CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE SOME
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS EXTREME WEST ALABAMA BY 1200 UTC...BUT
NOT SURE IF LOWER CIGS WILL REACH KTCL AND KEPT CLOUDS SCATTERED.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  92  68  93  68 /  10  20  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  93  70  93  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  93  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  95  72  95  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
CALERA      73  93  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
AUBURN      73  93  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  95  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TROY        71  94  71  94  72 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 012010
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
310 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN IT TO GET POCKETS
OF CONVECTION...SUCH AS TODAY. THERE COULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE SOME
WEAK VORTICITY AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVEL TRAVERSES THE AREA
INCREASING THE COVERAGE. THE MODELS SORTA HINTED AT THIS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK SCATTERED POPS
STILL A GOOD OPTION AT THIS POINT. THE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OFF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
ARE GOING TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

NEXT WEEKEND...SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO
PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE STATE SO SOME HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED
LATER ON FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 90 AND 70.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE THE FORECAST CYCLE. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. VCTS
INCLUDED AT KANB DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE
NOT ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO MENTION CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE SOME
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS EXTREME WEST ALABAMA BY 1200 UTC...BUT
NOT SURE IF LOWER CIGS WILL REACH KTCL AND KEPT CLOUDS SCATTERED.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  92  68  93  68 /  10  20  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  93  70  93  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  93  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  95  72  95  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
CALERA      73  93  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
AUBURN      73  93  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  95  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TROY        71  94  71  94  72 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 012010
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
310 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN IT TO GET POCKETS
OF CONVECTION...SUCH AS TODAY. THERE COULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE SOME
WEAK VORTICITY AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVEL TRAVERSES THE AREA
INCREASING THE COVERAGE. THE MODELS SORTA HINTED AT THIS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK SCATTERED POPS
STILL A GOOD OPTION AT THIS POINT. THE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OFF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
ARE GOING TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

NEXT WEEKEND...SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO
PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE STATE SO SOME HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED
LATER ON FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 90 AND 70.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE THE FORECAST CYCLE. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. VCTS
INCLUDED AT KANB DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE
NOT ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO MENTION CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE SOME
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS EXTREME WEST ALABAMA BY 1200 UTC...BUT
NOT SURE IF LOWER CIGS WILL REACH KTCL AND KEPT CLOUDS SCATTERED.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  92  68  93  68 /  10  20  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  93  70  93  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  93  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  95  72  95  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
CALERA      73  93  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
AUBURN      73  93  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  95  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TROY        71  94  71  94  72 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 011937
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OVERALL MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. OTHERWISE TEMPS WERE ARND
90 WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHRA OVER NW GA MOVING NE
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN GA THRU
SRN AL. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT DUE TO
LACK OF ANY GOOD TRIGGERS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP
PATCHY FOG BUT COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY A WEAK TROF/CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE CWA INCREASING THE CHC
OF SCT SHRA/TSRA. GFS HINTS THAT THE CDFNT WILL PROBABLY WASH OUT
JUST NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...THE JET STREAM WILL BE OVER THE NRN TIER OF
STATES WITH A DIRTY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE SERN US. WILL KEEP A LOW
POP IN FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA.

BY SATURDAY MRNG A CDFNT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU MO
AND INTO NRN TX. GFS HAS THE CDFNT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MRNG. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT
ALONG WITH A LITTLE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL NOT COOL OFF
THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS ARND 90 AND LOWS NEAR 70...A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY SETUP ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH...ALONG WITH MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA.

IN A NUT SHELL IT LOOKS LIKE A LATE SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTN/EVENING
SHRA/TSRA AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1257 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT DURING POSSIBLE MVFR FOG FORMATION 10-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AFTER FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  92  70  93 /  10  20  30  30
SHOALS        73  93  71  94 /  10  20  30  30
VINEMONT      72  92  70  93 /  10  20  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  70  90  68  91 /  10  20  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   71  89  70  91 /  10  20  30  30
FORT PAYNE    71  91  69  92 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011937
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OVERALL MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. OTHERWISE TEMPS WERE ARND
90 WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHRA OVER NW GA MOVING NE
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN GA THRU
SRN AL. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT DUE TO
LACK OF ANY GOOD TRIGGERS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP
PATCHY FOG BUT COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY A WEAK TROF/CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE CWA INCREASING THE CHC
OF SCT SHRA/TSRA. GFS HINTS THAT THE CDFNT WILL PROBABLY WASH OUT
JUST NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...THE JET STREAM WILL BE OVER THE NRN TIER OF
STATES WITH A DIRTY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE SERN US. WILL KEEP A LOW
POP IN FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA.

BY SATURDAY MRNG A CDFNT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU MO
AND INTO NRN TX. GFS HAS THE CDFNT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MRNG. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT
ALONG WITH A LITTLE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL NOT COOL OFF
THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS ARND 90 AND LOWS NEAR 70...A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY SETUP ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH...ALONG WITH MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA.

IN A NUT SHELL IT LOOKS LIKE A LATE SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTN/EVENING
SHRA/TSRA AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1257 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT DURING POSSIBLE MVFR FOG FORMATION 10-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AFTER FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  92  70  93 /  10  20  30  30
SHOALS        73  93  71  94 /  10  20  30  30
VINEMONT      72  92  70  93 /  10  20  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  70  90  68  91 /  10  20  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   71  89  70  91 /  10  20  30  30
FORT PAYNE    71  91  69  92 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011757 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1257 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1106 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
THE FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE DUE TO THE TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE HUN CWA. THIS BOUNDARY IS NOW JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND WITH THE TN VALLEY BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE...WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

LACK OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY RISE
WITH SFC OBS SHOWING TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ALREADY IN THE LOWER
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. EVEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW/MID 90S TODAY. WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING...PWATS STILL ELEVATED AND WEAK CONVERGENCE JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...LEFT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-65. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
IN...IT WILL KEEP HIGHER CHANCES AT BAY FOR NOW.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...IT WAS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT DURING POSSIBLE MVFR FOG FORMATION 10-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AFTER FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 011757 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1257 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1106 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
THE FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE DUE TO THE TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE HUN CWA. THIS BOUNDARY IS NOW JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND WITH THE TN VALLEY BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE...WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

LACK OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY RISE
WITH SFC OBS SHOWING TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ALREADY IN THE LOWER
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. EVEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW/MID 90S TODAY. WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING...PWATS STILL ELEVATED AND WEAK CONVERGENCE JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...LEFT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-65. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
IN...IT WILL KEEP HIGHER CHANCES AT BAY FOR NOW.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...IT WAS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT DURING POSSIBLE MVFR FOG FORMATION 10-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AFTER FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011739
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CENTRAL ALABAMA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED
NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THIS MORNING ARE
NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE...SO THERE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MESO-SCALE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT TODAY...JUST THE POP-UP VARIETY RESULTING
FROM DIURNAL HEATING. A THICK LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED
THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM THIS MORNING...AND
THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SHOW ANY SPECIFIC AREAS
WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE BOTTOM EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROF WAS
APPROACHING WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY KICK
OFF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH NW ALABAMA...AND ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE NW COUNTIES. FOR NOW BLANKETED THE AREA
WITH 20 PERCENT POPS...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE LATER BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE THE FORECAST CYCLE. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. VCTS
INCLUDED AT KANB DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE
NOT ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO MENTION CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE SOME
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS EXTREME WEST ALABAMA BY 1200 UTC...BUT
NOT SURE IF LOWER CIGS WILL REACH KTCL AND KEPT CLOUDS SCATTERED.

58/ROSE



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  93  68  92  70 /  10  20  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  92  70  94  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  93  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  94  72  95  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
CALERA      73  93  72  94  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
AUBURN      72  93  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  96  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
TROY        71  93  71  94  71 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 011739
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CENTRAL ALABAMA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED
NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THIS MORNING ARE
NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE...SO THERE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MESO-SCALE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT TODAY...JUST THE POP-UP VARIETY RESULTING
FROM DIURNAL HEATING. A THICK LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED
THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM THIS MORNING...AND
THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SHOW ANY SPECIFIC AREAS
WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE BOTTOM EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROF WAS
APPROACHING WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY KICK
OFF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH NW ALABAMA...AND ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE NW COUNTIES. FOR NOW BLANKETED THE AREA
WITH 20 PERCENT POPS...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE LATER BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE THE FORECAST CYCLE. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. VCTS
INCLUDED AT KANB DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE
NOT ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO MENTION CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE SOME
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS EXTREME WEST ALABAMA BY 1200 UTC...BUT
NOT SURE IF LOWER CIGS WILL REACH KTCL AND KEPT CLOUDS SCATTERED.

58/ROSE



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  93  68  92  70 /  10  20  20  30  20
ANNISTON    71  92  70  94  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  93  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  94  72  95  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
CALERA      73  93  72  94  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
AUBURN      72  93  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  96  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
TROY        71  93  71  94  71 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 011732
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1232 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION [01.18 UTC ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
02.18Z. BRIEF  MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND (I.E.,
MOVING AWAY FORM COASTAL TERMINALS). SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SFC WINDS
INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15 KT
(ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL SITES) DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT (SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST). BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS DURING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TUESDAY MORNING.
/23 JMM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 011732
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1232 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION [01.18 UTC ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
02.18Z. BRIEF  MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND (I.E.,
MOVING AWAY FORM COASTAL TERMINALS). SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SFC WINDS
INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15 KT
(ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL SITES) DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT (SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST). BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS DURING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TUESDAY MORNING.
/23 JMM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KHUN 011606 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1106 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE DUE TO THE TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE HUN CWA. THIS BOUNDARY IS NOW JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND WITH THE TN VALLEY BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE...WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

LACK OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY RISE
WITH SFC OBS SHOWING TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ALREADY IN THE LOWER
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. EVEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW/MID 90S TODAY. WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING...PWATS STILL ELEVATED AND WEAK CONVERGENCE JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...LEFT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-65. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
IN...IT WILL KEEP HIGHER CHANCES AT BAY FOR NOW.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...IT WAS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR FOG/MIST THIS MORNING AT KMSL...
VFR WEATHER IS OTHERWISE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW 5-10KT FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER DUSK.
MVFR MIST/FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO KMSL LATE IN TAF.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA IS BEGINNING TO
AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A
BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER MID
WEST. THAT PARTICULAR TROUGH IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, REMNANTS
OF THE SHEARED TROUGH AXIS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAT OFFICIALLY RETURNS TODAY AS IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE HOT AND MUGGY BEGINNING TODAY AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

SL.77

DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANT VORTICITY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW AND WAA IN PLACE FOR LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES
TODAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS DOES EXIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE AL
AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA AND PORTIONS OF
S MIDDLE TN, THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, WITH A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ALONG
RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. NOW, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT SFC WINDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. THUS, THE REASON WHY FOG
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA TONIGHT.

BEFORE THE RIDGE COMPLETELY BUILDS OVER THE REGION, A FEW WEAK
EDDIES WITHIN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES ARE DEPICTED BY THE MED
RANGE MODELS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ONE OF THESE
ARRIVES OVER THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY WITH AN ANTECEDENT TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING W TN/KY THAT LOOKS
TO STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SHOWING MODEST INSTABILITY PROFILES (I.E.
BTWN 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPES) ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A
MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LEFT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ATOP THE TN VALLEY IT MAY INHIBIT ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER FORECAST MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE.

THE RIDGE THEN SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ALBERTA/MANITOBA ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE RIDGE APPEARS TO
DAMPEN AND SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH PUSHES A WEAK SFC FRONT SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, WITH
THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES SHIFTING TO AN ALMOST PARALLEL ORIENTATION
TO THE NE TO WSW ORIENTED FRONT, EXPECTING SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS
IT APPROACHES THE OH/MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. FOR NOW,
WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011606 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1106 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE DUE TO THE TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE HUN CWA. THIS BOUNDARY IS NOW JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND WITH THE TN VALLEY BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE...WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

LACK OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY RISE
WITH SFC OBS SHOWING TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ALREADY IN THE LOWER
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. EVEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW/MID 90S TODAY. WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING...PWATS STILL ELEVATED AND WEAK CONVERGENCE JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...LEFT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-65. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
IN...IT WILL KEEP HIGHER CHANCES AT BAY FOR NOW.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...IT WAS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR FOG/MIST THIS MORNING AT KMSL...
VFR WEATHER IS OTHERWISE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW 5-10KT FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER DUSK.
MVFR MIST/FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO KMSL LATE IN TAF.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA IS BEGINNING TO
AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A
BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER MID
WEST. THAT PARTICULAR TROUGH IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, REMNANTS
OF THE SHEARED TROUGH AXIS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAT OFFICIALLY RETURNS TODAY AS IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE HOT AND MUGGY BEGINNING TODAY AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

SL.77

DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANT VORTICITY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW AND WAA IN PLACE FOR LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES
TODAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS DOES EXIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE AL
AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA AND PORTIONS OF
S MIDDLE TN, THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, WITH A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ALONG
RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. NOW, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT SFC WINDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. THUS, THE REASON WHY FOG
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA TONIGHT.

BEFORE THE RIDGE COMPLETELY BUILDS OVER THE REGION, A FEW WEAK
EDDIES WITHIN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES ARE DEPICTED BY THE MED
RANGE MODELS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ONE OF THESE
ARRIVES OVER THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY WITH AN ANTECEDENT TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING W TN/KY THAT LOOKS
TO STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SHOWING MODEST INSTABILITY PROFILES (I.E.
BTWN 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPES) ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A
MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LEFT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ATOP THE TN VALLEY IT MAY INHIBIT ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER FORECAST MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE.

THE RIDGE THEN SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ALBERTA/MANITOBA ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE RIDGE APPEARS TO
DAMPEN AND SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH PUSHES A WEAK SFC FRONT SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, WITH
THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES SHIFTING TO AN ALMOST PARALLEL ORIENTATION
TO THE NE TO WSW ORIENTED FRONT, EXPECTING SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS
IT APPROACHES THE OH/MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. FOR NOW,
WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011515
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1015 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CENTRAL ALABAMA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED
NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THIS MORNING ARE
NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE...SO THERE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MESO-SCALE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT TODAY...JUST THE POP-UP VARIETY RESULTING
FROM DIURNAL HEATING. A THICK LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED
THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM THIS MORNING...AND
THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SHOW ANY SPECIFIC AREAS
WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE BOTTOM EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROF WAS
APPROACHING WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY KICK
OFF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH NW ALABAMA...AND ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE NW COUNTIES. FOR NOW BLANKETED THE AREA
WITH 20 PERCENT POPS...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE LATER BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE FORECAST VFR FOR AL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED...BUT WAS ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECTING ANY
TERMINALS AT RELEASE. THE OVERALL LACK OF MEAN MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE LIMITED THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WINDS WILL BE AROUND
6 KTS DAYTIME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    91  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  94  73  94  72  95 /  20  10  20  20  30
CALERA      94  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      92  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 011355
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
855 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH TODAY GIVEN LATEST SWELL
OBSERVATIONS. LOOKS LIKE PRIMARY WAVE ENERGY PACKET AFFECTING OUR
AREA NOW IS NEAR 8 SEC AND 3.5 FT AT 42012. THE SOURCE OF THE LONG
PERIOD SWELL IS THE NEAR CONSTANT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE (CURRENTLY ~1020 HPA) TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER
THE SW GULFMEX (CURRENTLY ~1009 HPA) THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
ALONG WITH INCREASING TIDAL RANGE...AMONG OTHER CONTRIBUTORS...THIS
WARRANTS AN INCREASE IN THE RISK. LOOKS LIKE THIS ELEVATED RISK WILL
BE WITH US FOR THE NEXT 24-48 H. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS
OF LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST
AND NORTH.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

AVIATION [01.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 011355
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
855 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH TODAY GIVEN LATEST SWELL
OBSERVATIONS. LOOKS LIKE PRIMARY WAVE ENERGY PACKET AFFECTING OUR
AREA NOW IS NEAR 8 SEC AND 3.5 FT AT 42012. THE SOURCE OF THE LONG
PERIOD SWELL IS THE NEAR CONSTANT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE (CURRENTLY ~1020 HPA) TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER
THE SW GULFMEX (CURRENTLY ~1009 HPA) THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
ALONG WITH INCREASING TIDAL RANGE...AMONG OTHER CONTRIBUTORS...THIS
WARRANTS AN INCREASE IN THE RISK. LOOKS LIKE THIS ELEVATED RISK WILL
BE WITH US FOR THE NEXT 24-48 H. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS
OF LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST
AND NORTH.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

AVIATION [01.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 011226 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS
OF LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST
AND NORTH.


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

&&

.AVIATION [01.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMOB 011226 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS
OF LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST
AND NORTH.


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

&&

.AVIATION [01.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMOB 011226 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS
OF LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST
AND NORTH.


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

&&

.AVIATION [01.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMOB 011226 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS
OF LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST
AND NORTH.


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

&&

.AVIATION [01.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KBMX 011148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE FORECAST VFR FOR AL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED...BUT WAS ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECTING ANY
TERMINALS AT RELEASE. THE OVERALL LACK OF MEAN MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE LIMITED THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WINDS WILL BE AROUND
6 KTS DAYTIME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 011148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE FORECAST VFR FOR AL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED...BUT WAS ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECTING ANY
TERMINALS AT RELEASE. THE OVERALL LACK OF MEAN MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE LIMITED THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WINDS WILL BE AROUND
6 KTS DAYTIME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 011148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE FORECAST VFR FOR AL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED...BUT WAS ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECTING ANY
TERMINALS AT RELEASE. THE OVERALL LACK OF MEAN MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE LIMITED THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WINDS WILL BE AROUND
6 KTS DAYTIME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 011148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE FORECAST VFR FOR AL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED...BUT WAS ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECTING ANY
TERMINALS AT RELEASE. THE OVERALL LACK OF MEAN MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE LIMITED THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WINDS WILL BE AROUND
6 KTS DAYTIME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHUN 011131 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA IS BEGINNING TO
AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A
BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER MID
WEST. THAT PARTICULAR TROUGH IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, REMNANTS
OF THE SHEARED TROUGH AXIS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAT OFFICIALLY RETURNS TODAY AS IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE HOT AND MUGGY BEGINNING TODAY AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

SL.77


DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANT VORTICITY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW AND WAA IN PLACE FOR LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES
TODAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS DOES EXIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE AL
AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA AND PORTIONS OF
S MIDDLE TN, THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, WITH A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ALONG
RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. NOW, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT SFC WINDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. THUS, THE REASON WHY FOG
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA TONIGHT.

BEFORE THE RIDGE COMPLETELY BUILDS OVER THE REGION, A FEW WEAK
EDDIES WITHIN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES ARE DEPICTED BY THE MED
RANGE MODELS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ONE OF THESE
ARRIVES OVER THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY WITH AN ANTECEDENT TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING W TN/KY THAT LOOKS
TO STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SHOWING MODEST INSTABILITY PROFILES (I.E.
BTWN 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPES) ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A
MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LEFT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ATOP THE TN VALLEY IT MAY INHIBIT ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER FORECAST MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE.

THE RIDGE THEN SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ALBERTA/MANITOBA ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE RIDGE APPEARS TO
DAMPEN AND SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH PUSHES A WEAK SFC FRONT SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, WITH
THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES SHIFTING TO AN ALMOST PARALLEL ORIENTATION
TO THE NE TO WSW ORIENTED FRONT, EXPECTING SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS
IT APPROACHES THE OH/MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. FOR NOW,
WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR FOG/MIST THIS MORNING AT KMSL...
VFR WEATHER IS OTHERWISE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW 5-10KT FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER DUSK.
MVFR MIST/FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO KMSL LATE IN TAF.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011131 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA IS BEGINNING TO
AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A
BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER MID
WEST. THAT PARTICULAR TROUGH IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, REMNANTS
OF THE SHEARED TROUGH AXIS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAT OFFICIALLY RETURNS TODAY AS IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE HOT AND MUGGY BEGINNING TODAY AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

SL.77


DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANT VORTICITY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW AND WAA IN PLACE FOR LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES
TODAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS DOES EXIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE AL
AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA AND PORTIONS OF
S MIDDLE TN, THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, WITH A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ALONG
RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. NOW, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT SFC WINDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. THUS, THE REASON WHY FOG
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA TONIGHT.

BEFORE THE RIDGE COMPLETELY BUILDS OVER THE REGION, A FEW WEAK
EDDIES WITHIN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES ARE DEPICTED BY THE MED
RANGE MODELS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ONE OF THESE
ARRIVES OVER THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY WITH AN ANTECEDENT TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING W TN/KY THAT LOOKS
TO STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SHOWING MODEST INSTABILITY PROFILES (I.E.
BTWN 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPES) ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A
MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LEFT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ATOP THE TN VALLEY IT MAY INHIBIT ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER FORECAST MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE.

THE RIDGE THEN SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ALBERTA/MANITOBA ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE RIDGE APPEARS TO
DAMPEN AND SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH PUSHES A WEAK SFC FRONT SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, WITH
THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES SHIFTING TO AN ALMOST PARALLEL ORIENTATION
TO THE NE TO WSW ORIENTED FRONT, EXPECTING SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS
IT APPROACHES THE OH/MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. FOR NOW,
WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR FOG/MIST THIS MORNING AT KMSL...
VFR WEATHER IS OTHERWISE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW 5-10KT FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER DUSK.
MVFR MIST/FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO KMSL LATE IN TAF.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 011037
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT NO WIDESPREAD VIS REDUCTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ANY OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 011037
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
REMNANTS OF THE VORTICITY/TROUGH EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE AL. AT THE SFC...SOME PATCHES OF FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO MID WEEK BUT
SMALL WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO TN/KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CLIMO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THRU MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID
90S.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. UNSURE OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BUT IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP AID IN INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SFC FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT NO WIDESPREAD VIS REDUCTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ANY OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 010952
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS OF
LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST AND
NORTH.


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

&&

.AVIATION...[31.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
02.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND
AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 010952
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS OF
LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST AND
NORTH.


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

&&

.AVIATION...[31.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
02.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND
AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KHUN 010808
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
308 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA IS BEGINNING TO
AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A
BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER MID
WEST. THAT PARTICULAR TROUGH IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, REMNANTS
OF THE SHEARED TROUGH AXIS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAT OFFICIALLY RETURNS TODAY AS IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE HOT AND MUGGY BEGINNING TODAY AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANT VORTICITY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW AND WAA IN PLACE FOR LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES
TODAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS DOES EXIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE AL
AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA AND PORTIONS OF
S MIDDLE TN, THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, WITH A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ALONG
RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. NOW, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT SFC WINDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. THUS, THE REASON WHY FOG
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA TONIGHT.

BEFORE THE RIDGE COMPLETELY BUILDS OVER THE REGION, A FEW WEAK
EDDIES WITHIN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES ARE DEPICTED BY THE MED
RANGE MODELS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ONE OF THESE
ARRIVES OVER THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY WITH AN ANTECEDENT TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING W TN/KY THAT LOOKS
TO STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SHOWING MODEST INSTABILITY PROFILES (I.E.
BTWN 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPES) ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A
MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LEFT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ATOP THE TN VALLEY IT MAY INHIBIT ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER FORECAST MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE.

THE RIDGE THEN SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ALBERTA/MANITOBA ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE RIDGE APPEARS TO
DAMPEN AND SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH PUSHES A WEAK SFC FRONT SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, WITH
THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES SHIFTING TO AN ALMOST PARALLEL ORIENTATION
TO THE NE TO WSW ORIENTED FRONT, EXPECTING SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS
IT APPROACHES THE OH/MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. FOR NOW,
WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1205 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...ISOLATED -RA HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
CWA. BKN/OVC AC CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHICH WERE
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER AR. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
WAVE ATTM. NEW MODEL DATA WAS SHOWING THAT BKN/OVC AC CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KMSL
WHERE SCT AC WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOG WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...FOR
NOW WILL KEEP PATCHY MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    95  74  94  70 /  20  10  20  20
SHOALS        95  74  94  70 /  10  10  20  20
VINEMONT      92  72  92  70 /  20  10  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  92  71  93  68 /  20  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   93  71  90  70 /  20  10  20  20
FORT PAYNE    93  71  93  68 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 010514
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1214 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ONLY VERY THIN BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND WEST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST. KEEPING ISOLATED
POPS IN THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THESE AREAS ONLY AS COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT INCREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH ONCE AGAIN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND WITH CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT NO WIDESPREAD VIS REDUCTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ANY OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  70  93  68  92 /  20  10  20  20  30
ANNISTON    93  71  92  70  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  95  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CALERA      93  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
AUBURN      93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  20  20  30
TROY        94  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 010505 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED -SHRA STILL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER
WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN US AND LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING...THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRA AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

ANYHOW WILL KEEP 20 POPS TIL MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT FOG FORMATION
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. ATTM STLT TRENDS ARE SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WAS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...ISOLATED -RA HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
CWA. BKN/OVC AC CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHICH WERE
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER AR. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
WAVE ATTM. NEW MODEL DATA WAS SHOWING THAT BKN/OVC AC CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KMSL
WHERE SCT AC WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOG WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...FOR
NOW WILL KEEP PATCHY MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010505 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED -SHRA STILL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER
WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN US AND LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING...THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRA AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

ANYHOW WILL KEEP 20 POPS TIL MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT FOG FORMATION
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. ATTM STLT TRENDS ARE SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WAS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...ISOLATED -RA HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
CWA. BKN/OVC AC CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHICH WERE
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER AR. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
WAVE ATTM. NEW MODEL DATA WAS SHOWING THAT BKN/OVC AC CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KMSL
WHERE SCT AC WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOG WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...FOR
NOW WILL KEEP PATCHY MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010448 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION (01.06Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO CALM WIND
OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS BASES ON LABOR DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT
RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SEABREEZE. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE [TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
STARTING TO SEE THE RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE CARRIED
OVER INTO THE EVENING FROM THE AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO A DIURNAL
MINIMUM IN COVERAGE MOVING INTO THE EVENING. VERY LITTLE LEFT ON RADAR AND
HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TO LESS THAN
10% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM. /10

SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS
A RETURN TO A MORE PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. DESPITE THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR
DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL
PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10
CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20%
ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96 DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE
THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S
MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73
DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 010448 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION (01.06Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO CALM WIND
OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS BASES ON LABOR DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT
RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SEABREEZE. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE [TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
STARTING TO SEE THE RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE CARRIED
OVER INTO THE EVENING FROM THE AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO A DIURNAL
MINIMUM IN COVERAGE MOVING INTO THE EVENING. VERY LITTLE LEFT ON RADAR AND
HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TO LESS THAN
10% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM. /10

SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS
A RETURN TO A MORE PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. DESPITE THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR
DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL
PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10
CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20%
ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96 DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE
THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S
MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73
DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 010448 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION (01.06Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO CALM WIND
OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS BASES ON LABOR DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT
RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SEABREEZE. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE [TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
STARTING TO SEE THE RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE CARRIED
OVER INTO THE EVENING FROM THE AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO A DIURNAL
MINIMUM IN COVERAGE MOVING INTO THE EVENING. VERY LITTLE LEFT ON RADAR AND
HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TO LESS THAN
10% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM. /10

SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS
A RETURN TO A MORE PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. DESPITE THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR
DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL
PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10
CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20%
ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96 DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE
THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S
MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73
DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 010448 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION (01.06Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO CALM WIND
OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS BASES ON LABOR DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT
RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SEABREEZE. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE [TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
STARTING TO SEE THE RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE CARRIED
OVER INTO THE EVENING FROM THE AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO A DIURNAL
MINIMUM IN COVERAGE MOVING INTO THE EVENING. VERY LITTLE LEFT ON RADAR AND
HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TO LESS THAN
10% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM. /10

SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS
A RETURN TO A MORE PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. DESPITE THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR
DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL
PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10
CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20%
ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96 DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE
THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S
MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73
DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 010254 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
954 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ONLY VERY THIN BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND WEST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST. KEEPING ISOLATED
POPS IN THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THESE AREAS ONLY AS COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT INCREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH ONCE AGAIN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND WITH CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...NO MAJOR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY...AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY VCTS IN THE TAF DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

56/GDG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS PULLED OFF TO THE NORTH WITH
UPPER RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

LABOR DAY WILL BE HOT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  93  70  93  68 /  10  20  10  20  20
ANNISTON    71  93  71  92  70 /  10  20  10  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  73  93  75  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  95  73  94  72 /  20  10  10  20  20
CALERA      72  93  73  93  72 /  10  20  10  20  20
AUBURN      71  93  72  93  72 /  10  20  10  20  20
MONTGOMERY  72  95  73  95  73 /  10  20  10  20  20
TROY        71  94  71  93  71 /  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/56/88






000
FXUS64 KBMX 010254 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
954 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ONLY VERY THIN BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND WEST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST. KEEPING ISOLATED
POPS IN THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THESE AREAS ONLY AS COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT INCREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH ONCE AGAIN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND WITH CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...NO MAJOR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY...AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY VCTS IN THE TAF DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

56/GDG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS PULLED OFF TO THE NORTH WITH
UPPER RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

LABOR DAY WILL BE HOT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  93  70  93  68 /  10  20  10  20  20
ANNISTON    71  93  71  92  70 /  10  20  10  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  73  93  75  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  95  73  94  72 /  20  10  10  20  20
CALERA      72  93  73  93  72 /  10  20  10  20  20
AUBURN      71  93  72  93  72 /  10  20  10  20  20
MONTGOMERY  72  95  73  95  73 /  10  20  10  20  20
TROY        71  94  71  93  71 /  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/56/88





000
FXUS64 KHUN 010235
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED THUNDER OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED -SHRA STILL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER
WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN US AND LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING...THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRA AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

ANYHOW WILL KEEP 20 POPS TIL MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT FOG FORMATION
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. ATTM STLT TRENDS ARE SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WAS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WEAK UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MRNG/AFTN CONTINUES TO MOVE NE TAKING THE PCPN WITH IT. TOOK OUT
PCPN AT KMSL TAF BUT WILL LEAVE VCSH IN FOR KHSV UNTIL 02Z. AFTER
02Z OVC/BKN AC CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCT ALLOWING FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG TO
FORM AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS AND AREA 88-D DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WERE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE LAST OF THE SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP IN MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON
THE EXPECTED TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN WASHING OUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE AREA...TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING
DEGREES...DIG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TIMING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPS AND
WILL KEEP THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010235
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED THUNDER OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED -SHRA STILL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER
WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN US AND LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING...THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRA AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

ANYHOW WILL KEEP 20 POPS TIL MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT FOG FORMATION
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. ATTM STLT TRENDS ARE SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WAS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WEAK UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MRNG/AFTN CONTINUES TO MOVE NE TAKING THE PCPN WITH IT. TOOK OUT
PCPN AT KMSL TAF BUT WILL LEAVE VCSH IN FOR KHSV UNTIL 02Z. AFTER
02Z OVC/BKN AC CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCT ALLOWING FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG TO
FORM AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS AND AREA 88-D DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WERE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE LAST OF THE SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP IN MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON
THE EXPECTED TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN WASHING OUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE AREA...TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING
DEGREES...DIG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TIMING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPS AND
WILL KEEP THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 010050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
750 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE [TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
STARTING TO SEE THE RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE CARRIED
OVER INTO THE EVENING FROM THE AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO A DIURNAL
MINIMUM IN COVERAGE MOVING INTO THE EVENING. VERY LITTLE LEFT ON RADAR AND
HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TO LESS THAN
10% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM. /10

SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS
A RETURN TO A MORE PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. DESPITE THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR
DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL
PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10
CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20%
ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96 DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE
THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S
MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73
DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 010050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
750 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE [TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
STARTING TO SEE THE RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE CARRIED
OVER INTO THE EVENING FROM THE AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO A DIURNAL
MINIMUM IN COVERAGE MOVING INTO THE EVENING. VERY LITTLE LEFT ON RADAR AND
HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TO LESS THAN
10% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM. /10

SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS
A RETURN TO A MORE PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. DESPITE THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR
DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL
PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10
CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20%
ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96 DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE
THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S
MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73
DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 010025
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
725 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS PULLED OFF TO THE NORTH WITH
UPPER RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

LABOR DAY WILL BE HOT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...NO MAJOR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY...AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY VCTS IN THE TAF DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  93  70  93  68 /  20  20  10  20  20
ANNISTON    71  93  71  92  70 /  20  20  10  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  74  93  75  93  74 /  20  20  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  95  73  94  72 /  20  10  10  20  20
CALERA      73  93  73  93  72 /  20  20  10  20  20
AUBURN      72  93  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  20  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  95  73 /  20  20  10  20  20
TROY        72  94  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 010025
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
725 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS PULLED OFF TO THE NORTH WITH
UPPER RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

LABOR DAY WILL BE HOT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...NO MAJOR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY...AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY VCTS IN THE TAF DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  93  70  93  68 /  20  20  10  20  20
ANNISTON    71  93  71  92  70 /  20  20  10  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  74  93  75  93  74 /  20  20  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  95  73  94  72 /  20  10  10  20  20
CALERA      73  93  73  93  72 /  20  20  10  20  20
AUBURN      72  93  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  20  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  95  73 /  20  20  10  20  20
TROY        72  94  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 312335
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS AND AREA 88-D DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WERE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE LAST OF THE SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP IN MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON
THE EXPECTED TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN WASHING OUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE AREA...TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING
DEGREES...DIG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TIMING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPS AND
WILL KEEP THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WEAK UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MRNG/AFTN CONTINUES TO MOVE NE TAKING THE PCPN WITH IT. TOOK OUT
PCPN AT KMSL TAF BUT WILL LEAVE VCSH IN FOR KHSV UNTIL 02Z. AFTER
02Z OVC/BKN AC CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCT ALLOWING FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG TO
FORM AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 312319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY)...SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP
THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS A RETURN TO A MORE
PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL
WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR REGION. DESPITE
THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT
LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS
TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY
FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20% ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96
DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73 DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR
THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  20  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  20  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 312319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION (01.00Z ISSUANCE)...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH
7 TO 10 KNOTS TO START THE PACKAGE...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUD BASES ON LABOR
DAY GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT RANGE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTH
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY)...SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP
THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS A RETURN TO A MORE
PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL
WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR REGION. DESPITE
THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT
LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS
TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY
FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20% ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96
DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73 DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR
THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACH GOERS...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  95  72 /  20  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  20  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  94  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 312014
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS PULLED OFF TO THE NORTH WITH
UPPER RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

LABOR DAY WILL BE HOT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT THAT MUCH WAY IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
TAF SITES. INCLUDED VCSH THROUGH 21Z THEN VCTS THROUGH 01Z FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED. ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED SO HARD TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. FOR THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL JUST GO WITH A SCT TO BKN CU DECK WITH THE MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION AS CHANCES JUST APPEAR TO LOW. AT THIS TIME. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TOI FOR ANY INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN
ALABAMA THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.

CLOUDS CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
TOI AND MGM. FOR THE NORTH...THINKING IS THAT IT MAY BE MORE OF A
COMBO OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY REDUCE THE AREA TO MVFR IN THE 8
TO 14Z TIME FRAME.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  93  70  93  68 /  20  20  10  20  20
ANNISTON    71  93  71  92  70 /  20  20  10  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  74  93  75  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  95  73  94  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
CALERA      73  93  73  93  72 /  20  20  10  20  20
AUBURN      72  93  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  20  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  73  95  73 /  20  20  10  20  20
TROY        72  94  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 311936
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY)...SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP
THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS A RETURN TO A MORE
PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL
WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR REGION. DESPITE
THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT
LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS
TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY
FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20% ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96
DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73 DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR
THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACHGOERS...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...NOT MUCH CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 01.18Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
(ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 31.23 UTC). SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH INCREASING TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS THROUGH LATE MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS FROM 01.12 TO 01.16 UTC WILL BRING
ABOUT SOME OCNL MVFR CIGS IN 020-025 RANGE UNTIL AFTERNOON MIXING
KICKS IN AND CLOUDS BECOME MORE FEW-SCT. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT
FURTHER RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  94  72 /  20  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  20  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  93  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 311936
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY)...SYNOPTIC TRANSITION FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPLY-REFLECTED RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ATOP
THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS. THIS PORTENDS A RETURN TO A MORE
PRONOUNCED DIURNAL PATTERN WITH BOTH SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS. LOCAL
WIND PROFILES THROUGH NEXT DAY STILL MOSTLY SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 300 HPA. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MEAN FLOW IS SLY-SELY...RELATIVE HIGHER VALUES OF MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR REGION. DESPITE
THIS...THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION STILL SUGGEST AT
LEAST ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LABOR DAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE NW FL PANHANDLE (SAME AREAS AS
TODAY). SO...INTRODUCED 30% ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR (AND HALF A COUNTY
FURTHER INLAND) WITH A GENERAL 20% ELSEWHERE. SEE THAT KGZH IS 96
DEG(F) AND KOZR IS 95 DEG(F) SO HAVE THAT REFLECTED IN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON`S MAX TEMP FORECAST. TONIGHT`S MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND 80 DEG(F) AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 73 DEG(F) FAR INLAND. FOR
THE MOST PART...AND FOR BEACHGOERS...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
START CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MOVING AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...AIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
IT WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING INLAND
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT/SUN AND WE HAVE RAISED RAIN
CHANCE TO 40% WITH THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH READING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES/GREATER
CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UPPER 70S ALONG
THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...NOT MUCH CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 01.18Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
(ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 31.23 UTC). SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH INCREASING TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS THROUGH LATE MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS FROM 01.12 TO 01.16 UTC WILL BRING
ABOUT SOME OCNL MVFR CIGS IN 020-025 RANGE UNTIL AFTERNOON MIXING
KICKS IN AND CLOUDS BECOME MORE FEW-SCT. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION REMAINS IN LARGE
SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE (8-12 KT) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY ONCE AN EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES INTO OLD MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE GRADIENT
FURTHER RELAXES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 3 FEET WAVES THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWN TO BE
SWELL DOMINATED PER LATEST SPECTRAL WAVE ANALYSIS FROM 42012.  THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 3 FEET SLOW ROLLERS ABOUT EVERY 7 SEC WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WAVE CHOP. A SECONDARY WIND WAVE ENERGY PACKET
AROUND 5 SEC IS BEING SUPPORTED BY 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 3 FEET ON
ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION. NO MARINE
HAZARDS OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS BEING LOCALLY HIGHER IN SUDDEN
THUNDERSTORM SQUALLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISPERSION VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY...BUT
STILL FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  91  74 /  10  30  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  93  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      82  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  72  94  72 /  20  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
CAMDEN      72  95  71  94  71 /  20  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  72  93  71 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHUN 311927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS AND AREA 88-D DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WERE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE LAST OF THE SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP IN MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON
THE EXPECTED TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN WASHING OUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE AREA...TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING
DEGREES...DIG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TIMING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPS AND
WILL KEEP THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDUCE VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 00Z. MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
REDUCTION OF CLOUD COVER COVER AT BOTH TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KHSV
SINCE THEY HAD MORE RAINFALL TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  93  73  94 /  20  10  10  20
SHOALS        70  93  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
VINEMONT      70  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  69  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   69  89  71  90 /  20  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    68  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS AND AREA 88-D DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WERE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE LAST OF THE SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP IN MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON
THE EXPECTED TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN WASHING OUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE AREA...TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING
DEGREES...DIG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TIMING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPS AND
WILL KEEP THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDUCE VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 00Z. MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
REDUCTION OF CLOUD COVER COVER AT BOTH TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KHSV
SINCE THEY HAD MORE RAINFALL TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  93  73  94 /  20  10  10  20
SHOALS        70  93  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
VINEMONT      70  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  69  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   69  89  71  90 /  20  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    68  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS AND AREA 88-D DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WERE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE LAST OF THE SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP IN MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON
THE EXPECTED TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN WASHING OUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE AREA...TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING
DEGREES...DIG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TIMING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPS AND
WILL KEEP THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDUCE VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 00Z. MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
REDUCTION OF CLOUD COVER COVER AT BOTH TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KHSV
SINCE THEY HAD MORE RAINFALL TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  93  73  94 /  20  10  10  20
SHOALS        70  93  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
VINEMONT      70  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  69  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   69  89  71  90 /  20  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    68  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS AND AREA 88-D DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WERE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE LAST OF THE SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP IN MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON
THE EXPECTED TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN WASHING OUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE AREA...TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING
DEGREES...DIG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TIMING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPS AND
WILL KEEP THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDUCE VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 00Z. MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
REDUCTION OF CLOUD COVER COVER AT BOTH TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KHSV
SINCE THEY HAD MORE RAINFALL TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  93  73  94 /  20  10  10  20
SHOALS        70  93  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
VINEMONT      70  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  69  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   69  89  71  90 /  20  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    68  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311752 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1103 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC STILL HAS A LITTLE BIT OF INFLUENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...CAN SEE ON SATELLITE THE GULF MOISTURE FLOW STRETCH
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE MOVED THROUGH MAINLY THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE HUN CWA THIS MORNING. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN NW AL. STARTING OUT WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECTING TEMPS TO
BE IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH NE AL ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD...THEY COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND GET ABOVE
THAT. WITH THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASED...WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY TODAY. PWATS ARE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...AROUND 2 INCHES.

ADJUSTED TEMPS IN NE AL BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR TRENDS. LOWERED THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 18Z TODAY AS ONLY THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES HAVE REALLY RECEIVED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG
A NORTHEAST AXIS. AS SUCH...ADJUSTED QPF AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDUCE VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 00Z. MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
REDUCTION OF CLOUD COVER COVER AT BOTH TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KHSV
SINCE THEY HAD MORE RAINFALL TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311752 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1103 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC STILL HAS A LITTLE BIT OF INFLUENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...CAN SEE ON SATELLITE THE GULF MOISTURE FLOW STRETCH
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE MOVED THROUGH MAINLY THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE HUN CWA THIS MORNING. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN NW AL. STARTING OUT WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECTING TEMPS TO
BE IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH NE AL ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD...THEY COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND GET ABOVE
THAT. WITH THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASED...WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY TODAY. PWATS ARE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...AROUND 2 INCHES.

ADJUSTED TEMPS IN NE AL BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR TRENDS. LOWERED THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 18Z TODAY AS ONLY THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES HAVE REALLY RECEIVED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG
A NORTHEAST AXIS. AS SUCH...ADJUSTED QPF AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDUCE VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 00Z. MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
REDUCTION OF CLOUD COVER COVER AT BOTH TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KHSV
SINCE THEY HAD MORE RAINFALL TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311742
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NORTHWEST...CLOSEST TO
THE OVERALL TROUGH IN PLACE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY HERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS WE LOOK AT THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IN THE
REGION WE ARE SEEING A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS SAY SOUTH OF I-20. SINCE
WE HAVE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGION. AS WE FOCUS ON THE
MESO SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WE HAVE  BEEN WATCHING A BOUNDARY
WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LEAD
TO THE WAY OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY LINE SO RAISED POPS UP HERE AS
WELL TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND MADE
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES HERE...MAINLY HOURLY. DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT THAT MUCH WAY IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
TAF SITES. INCLUDED VCSH THROUGH 21Z THEN VCTS THROUGH 01Z FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED. ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED SO HARD TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. FOR THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL JUST GO WITH A SCT TO BKN CU DECK WITH THE MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION AS CHANCES JUST APPEAR TO LOW. AT THIS TIME. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TOI FOR ANY INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN
ALABAMA THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.

CLOUDS CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
TOI AND MGM. FOR THE NORTH...THINKING IS THAT IT MAY BE MORE OF A
COMBO OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY REDUCE THE AREA TO MVFR IN THE 8
TO 14Z TIME FRAME.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 311742
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...[31.18 UTC ISSUANCE]...NOT MUCH CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 01.18Z. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING (ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 31.23 UTC). SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH INCREASING TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS FROM 01.12 TO 01.16 UTC WILL
BRING ABOUT SOME OCNL MVFR CIGS IN 020-025 RANGE UNTIL AFTERNOON
MIXING KICKS IN AND CLOUDS BECOME MORE FEW-SCT. /23 JMM

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

...RIP CURRENT THREAT REMAINS MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...THE RAINFALL PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EVOLVE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST (WHICH IS ALREADY
OCCURRING)AND PROPAGATING / ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LARGE SCALE RAINBAND TO OUR WEST WHICH FORMED IN CONFLUENT ZONE
BETWEEN IMPINGING LARGE SCALE MIDWESTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN
EXTENSION OF BERMUDA RIDGE HAS WEAKENED AND THERE IS LESS FORECAST
COVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY OVER OUR INTERIOR SE MS ZONES. RAISED
POPS BY 10% THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS PER LATEST TRENDS IN LATEST
GUIDANCE.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE...MOSTLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST NORTH OF THE FL/AL LINE AND EXTENDING INTO
INTERIOR SE MS. MOST OF WHAT YOU COULD EXPECT WOULD BE LOCAL 40-50
MPH WIND GUSTS DUE TO WATER LOADING EFFECTS IN THE DOWNDRAFT (VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY). STORM MOTION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
15-20 MPH (A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY BECAUSE THE LARGE SCALE
GRADIENT INFLUENCING THE CLOUD LAYER STEERING FLOW HAS WEAKENED).
DID TWEAK TEMPS TO LOWER ABOUT 1 DEG (F) ON AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND QPF
TO SHOW MORE DEFINED INLAND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO CHANGE TO RIP CURRENT FORECAST (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). WHILE
TIDAL RANGE HAS COME UP A BIT MOVING OUT OF A NEAP CYCLE...IT IS NOT
ENOUGH ALONG WITH 7 SEC/3FT SWELL TO PUSH IT  TO THE NEXT HIGHEST
CATEGORY. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...LATEST LOCAL SWELL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE  3 FEET IS
SOLID BEING CONTRIBUTED TO BE THE 7 SEC ENERGY PACKET (MOVING NWD)
AS WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 KT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO...SOME
SLOW ROLLERS TODAY NEAR 3 FEET. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES IN THEIR VICINITY.
/23 JMM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

















000
FXUS64 KBMX 311742
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NORTHWEST...CLOSEST TO
THE OVERALL TROUGH IN PLACE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY HERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS WE LOOK AT THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IN THE
REGION WE ARE SEEING A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS SAY SOUTH OF I-20. SINCE
WE HAVE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGION. AS WE FOCUS ON THE
MESO SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WE HAVE  BEEN WATCHING A BOUNDARY
WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LEAD
TO THE WAY OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY LINE SO RAISED POPS UP HERE AS
WELL TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND MADE
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES HERE...MAINLY HOURLY. DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT THAT MUCH WAY IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
TAF SITES. INCLUDED VCSH THROUGH 21Z THEN VCTS THROUGH 01Z FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED. ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED SO HARD TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. FOR THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL JUST GO WITH A SCT TO BKN CU DECK WITH THE MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION AS CHANCES JUST APPEAR TO LOW. AT THIS TIME. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TOI FOR ANY INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN
ALABAMA THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.

CLOUDS CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
TOI AND MGM. FOR THE NORTH...THINKING IS THAT IT MAY BE MORE OF A
COMBO OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY REDUCE THE AREA TO MVFR IN THE 8
TO 14Z TIME FRAME.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 311742
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...[31.18 UTC ISSUANCE]...NOT MUCH CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 01.18Z. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING (ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 31.23 UTC). SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH INCREASING TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS FROM 01.12 TO 01.16 UTC WILL
BRING ABOUT SOME OCNL MVFR CIGS IN 020-025 RANGE UNTIL AFTERNOON
MIXING KICKS IN AND CLOUDS BECOME MORE FEW-SCT. /23 JMM

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

...RIP CURRENT THREAT REMAINS MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...THE RAINFALL PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EVOLVE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST (WHICH IS ALREADY
OCCURRING)AND PROPAGATING / ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LARGE SCALE RAINBAND TO OUR WEST WHICH FORMED IN CONFLUENT ZONE
BETWEEN IMPINGING LARGE SCALE MIDWESTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN
EXTENSION OF BERMUDA RIDGE HAS WEAKENED AND THERE IS LESS FORECAST
COVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY OVER OUR INTERIOR SE MS ZONES. RAISED
POPS BY 10% THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS PER LATEST TRENDS IN LATEST
GUIDANCE.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE...MOSTLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST NORTH OF THE FL/AL LINE AND EXTENDING INTO
INTERIOR SE MS. MOST OF WHAT YOU COULD EXPECT WOULD BE LOCAL 40-50
MPH WIND GUSTS DUE TO WATER LOADING EFFECTS IN THE DOWNDRAFT (VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY). STORM MOTION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
15-20 MPH (A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY BECAUSE THE LARGE SCALE
GRADIENT INFLUENCING THE CLOUD LAYER STEERING FLOW HAS WEAKENED).
DID TWEAK TEMPS TO LOWER ABOUT 1 DEG (F) ON AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND QPF
TO SHOW MORE DEFINED INLAND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO CHANGE TO RIP CURRENT FORECAST (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). WHILE
TIDAL RANGE HAS COME UP A BIT MOVING OUT OF A NEAP CYCLE...IT IS NOT
ENOUGH ALONG WITH 7 SEC/3FT SWELL TO PUSH IT  TO THE NEXT HIGHEST
CATEGORY. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...LATEST LOCAL SWELL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE  3 FEET IS
SOLID BEING CONTRIBUTED TO BE THE 7 SEC ENERGY PACKET (MOVING NWD)
AS WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 KT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO...SOME
SLOW ROLLERS TODAY NEAR 3 FEET. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES IN THEIR VICINITY.
/23 JMM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

















000
FXUS64 KHUN 311603 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1103 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC STILL HAS A LITTLE BIT OF INFLUENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...CAN SEE ON SATELLITE THE GULF MOISTURE FLOW STRETCH
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE MOVED THROUGH MAINLY THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE HUN CWA THIS MORNING. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN NW AL. STARTING OUT WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECTING TEMPS TO
BE IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH NE AL ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD...THEY COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND GET ABOVE
THAT. WITH THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASED...WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY TODAY. PWATS ARE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...AROUND 2 INCHES.

ADJUSTED TEMPS IN NE AL BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR TRENDS. LOWERED THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 18Z TODAY AS ONLY THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES HAVE REALLY RECEIVED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG
A NORTHEAST AXIS. AS SUCH...ADJUSTED QPF AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH
DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 13-17Z AT BOTH TAF SITES AS MORE
SHRA ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OSCILLATIONS BTWN VFR AND
MVFR (IF NOT LOWER) CATEGORY IS LIKELY AGAIN BTWN 19-00Z AS
TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TIME PERIOD BTWN
00Z-12Z. HOWEVER, FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY DURING THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR TO IFR CAT BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
A DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SOUTH OF A NORTHERN ALASKA UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD. A COPIOUS STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SIMILARLY MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAS MADE FOR A VERY MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERE...WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS PRESENTLY AROUND 2 INCHES.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED MOVING TO THE
NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING OCCURRED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
NE FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
WEST OF I-65. ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AN
AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINS HAD OCCURRED.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS RAIN HAS MADE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION A POSSIBILITY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FORMING WEST OF JACKSON MS...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PER GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. IN DEFERENCE TO THE HIRES AWR/NMM...HAVE INCHED
LIKELY POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST TODAY...AND LEFT 50 POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. THIS EXTRA DOSE OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOG FORMATION A POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR LABOR DAY MORNING.

MONDAY OTHERWISE SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON TUE...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT NEARING THE AREA. THE
ECMWF AND NAM WAS SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THAT BOUNDARY. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF US SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER (AND MAYBE A FEW MID 90S)...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF PERIOD. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY FOR THE MID/LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL WARRANT LOWER
END CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SAT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 311603 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1103 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC STILL HAS A LITTLE BIT OF INFLUENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...CAN SEE ON SATELLITE THE GULF MOISTURE FLOW STRETCH
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE MOVED THROUGH MAINLY THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE HUN CWA THIS MORNING. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN NW AL. STARTING OUT WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECTING TEMPS TO
BE IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH NE AL ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD...THEY COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND GET ABOVE
THAT. WITH THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASED...WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY TODAY. PWATS ARE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...AROUND 2 INCHES.

ADJUSTED TEMPS IN NE AL BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR TRENDS. LOWERED THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 18Z TODAY AS ONLY THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES HAVE REALLY RECEIVED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG
A NORTHEAST AXIS. AS SUCH...ADJUSTED QPF AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH
DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 13-17Z AT BOTH TAF SITES AS MORE
SHRA ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OSCILLATIONS BTWN VFR AND
MVFR (IF NOT LOWER) CATEGORY IS LIKELY AGAIN BTWN 19-00Z AS
TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TIME PERIOD BTWN
00Z-12Z. HOWEVER, FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY DURING THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR TO IFR CAT BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
A DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SOUTH OF A NORTHERN ALASKA UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD. A COPIOUS STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SIMILARLY MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAS MADE FOR A VERY MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERE...WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS PRESENTLY AROUND 2 INCHES.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED MOVING TO THE
NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING OCCURRED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
NE FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
WEST OF I-65. ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AN
AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINS HAD OCCURRED.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS RAIN HAS MADE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION A POSSIBILITY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FORMING WEST OF JACKSON MS...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PER GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. IN DEFERENCE TO THE HIRES AWR/NMM...HAVE INCHED
LIKELY POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST TODAY...AND LEFT 50 POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. THIS EXTRA DOSE OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOG FORMATION A POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR LABOR DAY MORNING.

MONDAY OTHERWISE SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON TUE...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT NEARING THE AREA. THE
ECMWF AND NAM WAS SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THAT BOUNDARY. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF US SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER (AND MAYBE A FEW MID 90S)...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF PERIOD. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY FOR THE MID/LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL WARRANT LOWER
END CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SAT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311503
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NORTHWEST...CLOSEST TO
THE OVERALL TROUGH IN PLACE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY HERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS WE LOOK AT THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IN THE
REGION WE ARE SEEING A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS SAY SOUTH OF I-20. SINCE
WE HAVE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGION. AS WE FOCUS ON THE
MESO SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WE HAVE  BEEN WATCHING A BOUNDARY
WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LEAD
TO THE WAY OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY LINE SO RAISED POPS UP HERE AS
WELL TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND MADE
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES HERE...MAINLY HOURLY. DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WERE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WEST HALF OF THE AIR THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SATURATED AND TCL/BHM/EET HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
EXPERIENCING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VIS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH
AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR TCL/BHM/EET.
WILL MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS BUT MAY INCLUDE VCSH. THE
AREA NEAR I-20 AND NORTH ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 14-16Z AND THEN ON AND OFF VFR
CEILINGS. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KTS.

FOR ANB/MGM/TOI...THE LOW CLOUD LIFTING MECHANISMS DID NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GOOD...THEREFORE WILL GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS/VIS.
THESE CLOUDS LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SCT-BKN VFR. ANB APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT NOT QUITE TO THE
LEVEL FOR MENTION JUST YET. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER AT MGM/TOI AND
CONFIDENCE/CHANCES ARE TO LOW FOR ANY MENTION.

LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING BUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO
OUR EAST AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 6 TO 9
KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AT NIGHT.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
INFLUENCE FOR THE WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK. CURRENT RADAR
INDICATES SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE VALUES AREA BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WITH A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PRODUCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE LEFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATED. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS PRODUCED CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BELOW 500 FEET. THE RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. PW VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE MID-LEVELS AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF LIFT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
SOME LIFT MAY LINGER FROM THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE WITH THIS INTRODUCTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THE
MICROBURST PARAMETERS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY STORMS TO FORM.
FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT IF A STRONG STORM FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST TO START THE WORK WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MORE OF A SEASONAL PATTERN WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  69  93  70  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
ANNISTON    91  70  93  71  93 /  20  20  30  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  91  73  94  75  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  71  95  74  95 /  30  10  10  10  20
CALERA      91  72  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      92  71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20  20
MONTGOMERY  94  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
TROY        94  71  94  72  95 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 311503
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NORTHWEST...CLOSEST TO
THE OVERALL TROUGH IN PLACE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY HERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS WE LOOK AT THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IN THE
REGION WE ARE SEEING A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS SAY SOUTH OF I-20. SINCE
WE HAVE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGION. AS WE FOCUS ON THE
MESO SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WE HAVE  BEEN WATCHING A BOUNDARY
WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LEAD
TO THE WAY OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY LINE SO RAISED POPS UP HERE AS
WELL TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND MADE
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES HERE...MAINLY HOURLY. DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WERE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WEST HALF OF THE AIR THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SATURATED AND TCL/BHM/EET HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
EXPERIENCING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VIS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH
AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR TCL/BHM/EET.
WILL MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS BUT MAY INCLUDE VCSH. THE
AREA NEAR I-20 AND NORTH ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 14-16Z AND THEN ON AND OFF VFR
CEILINGS. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KTS.

FOR ANB/MGM/TOI...THE LOW CLOUD LIFTING MECHANISMS DID NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GOOD...THEREFORE WILL GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS/VIS.
THESE CLOUDS LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SCT-BKN VFR. ANB APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT NOT QUITE TO THE
LEVEL FOR MENTION JUST YET. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER AT MGM/TOI AND
CONFIDENCE/CHANCES ARE TO LOW FOR ANY MENTION.

LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING BUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO
OUR EAST AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 6 TO 9
KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AT NIGHT.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
INFLUENCE FOR THE WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK. CURRENT RADAR
INDICATES SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE VALUES AREA BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WITH A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PRODUCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE LEFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATED. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS PRODUCED CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BELOW 500 FEET. THE RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. PW VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE MID-LEVELS AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF LIFT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
SOME LIFT MAY LINGER FROM THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE WITH THIS INTRODUCTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THE
MICROBURST PARAMETERS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY STORMS TO FORM.
FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT IF A STRONG STORM FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST TO START THE WORK WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MORE OF A SEASONAL PATTERN WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  69  93  70  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
ANNISTON    91  70  93  71  93 /  20  20  30  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  91  73  94  75  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  71  95  74  95 /  30  10  10  10  20
CALERA      91  72  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      92  71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20  20
MONTGOMERY  94  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
TROY        94  71  94  72  95 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 311503
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NORTHWEST...CLOSEST TO
THE OVERALL TROUGH IN PLACE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY HERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS WE LOOK AT THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IN THE
REGION WE ARE SEEING A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS SAY SOUTH OF I-20. SINCE
WE HAVE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGION. AS WE FOCUS ON THE
MESO SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WE HAVE  BEEN WATCHING A BOUNDARY
WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LEAD
TO THE WAY OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY LINE SO RAISED POPS UP HERE AS
WELL TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND MADE
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES HERE...MAINLY HOURLY. DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WERE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WEST HALF OF THE AIR THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SATURATED AND TCL/BHM/EET HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
EXPERIENCING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VIS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH
AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR TCL/BHM/EET.
WILL MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS BUT MAY INCLUDE VCSH. THE
AREA NEAR I-20 AND NORTH ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 14-16Z AND THEN ON AND OFF VFR
CEILINGS. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KTS.

FOR ANB/MGM/TOI...THE LOW CLOUD LIFTING MECHANISMS DID NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GOOD...THEREFORE WILL GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS/VIS.
THESE CLOUDS LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SCT-BKN VFR. ANB APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT NOT QUITE TO THE
LEVEL FOR MENTION JUST YET. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER AT MGM/TOI AND
CONFIDENCE/CHANCES ARE TO LOW FOR ANY MENTION.

LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING BUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO
OUR EAST AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 6 TO 9
KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AT NIGHT.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
INFLUENCE FOR THE WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK. CURRENT RADAR
INDICATES SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE VALUES AREA BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WITH A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PRODUCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE LEFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATED. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS PRODUCED CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BELOW 500 FEET. THE RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. PW VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE MID-LEVELS AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF LIFT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
SOME LIFT MAY LINGER FROM THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE WITH THIS INTRODUCTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THE
MICROBURST PARAMETERS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY STORMS TO FORM.
FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT IF A STRONG STORM FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST TO START THE WORK WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MORE OF A SEASONAL PATTERN WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  69  93  70  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
ANNISTON    91  70  93  71  93 /  20  20  30  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  91  73  94  75  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  71  95  74  95 /  30  10  10  10  20
CALERA      91  72  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      92  71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20  20
MONTGOMERY  94  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
TROY        94  71  94  72  95 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 311503
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NORTHWEST...CLOSEST TO
THE OVERALL TROUGH IN PLACE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY HERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS WE LOOK AT THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IN THE
REGION WE ARE SEEING A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS SAY SOUTH OF I-20. SINCE
WE HAVE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS REGION. AS WE FOCUS ON THE
MESO SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WE HAVE  BEEN WATCHING A BOUNDARY
WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LEAD
TO THE WAY OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY LINE SO RAISED POPS UP HERE AS
WELL TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND MADE
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES HERE...MAINLY HOURLY. DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WERE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WEST HALF OF THE AIR THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SATURATED AND TCL/BHM/EET HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
EXPERIENCING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VIS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH
AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR TCL/BHM/EET.
WILL MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS BUT MAY INCLUDE VCSH. THE
AREA NEAR I-20 AND NORTH ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 14-16Z AND THEN ON AND OFF VFR
CEILINGS. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KTS.

FOR ANB/MGM/TOI...THE LOW CLOUD LIFTING MECHANISMS DID NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GOOD...THEREFORE WILL GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS/VIS.
THESE CLOUDS LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SCT-BKN VFR. ANB APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT NOT QUITE TO THE
LEVEL FOR MENTION JUST YET. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER AT MGM/TOI AND
CONFIDENCE/CHANCES ARE TO LOW FOR ANY MENTION.

LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING BUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO
OUR EAST AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 6 TO 9
KTS DAYTIME...LIGHT AT NIGHT.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
INFLUENCE FOR THE WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK. CURRENT RADAR
INDICATES SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE VALUES AREA BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WITH A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PRODUCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE LEFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATED. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS PRODUCED CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BELOW 500 FEET. THE RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. PW VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE MID-LEVELS AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF LIFT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
SOME LIFT MAY LINGER FROM THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE WITH THIS INTRODUCTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THE
MICROBURST PARAMETERS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY STORMS TO FORM.
FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT IF A STRONG STORM FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST TO START THE WORK WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MORE OF A SEASONAL PATTERN WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  69  93  70  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
ANNISTON    91  70  93  71  93 /  20  20  30  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  91  73  94  75  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  71  95  74  95 /  30  10  10  10  20
CALERA      91  72  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      92  71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20  20
MONTGOMERY  94  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
TROY        94  71  94  72  95 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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