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000
FXUS64 KHUN 250501
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1201 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN WAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MS RVR VALLEY THAT WAS ROTATING ARND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON STLT/RADAR TRENDS WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NW AL (50%) TO LOWEST
OVER NE AL (20%). WILL KEEP THUNDER OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...MAINLY DUE TO 8H
WINDS OF 30/40 KTS AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER THE SEVERE
WX THREAT LOOKS LOW TONIGHT BUT IN ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN. INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE AS
YOU GO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...THUS THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER WOULD BE
OVER NW AL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MS AS AN
UPPER RIDGE...OFF THE SERN COASTLINE...KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN TO THE
WEST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER NW AL
TO KEEP SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA GOING UNTIL ARND 10Z. THUS THE BEST
CHC OF PCPN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE AT KMSL. ON MONDAY
TIMING OF PCPN FOR THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRICKY BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH THE AFTN HOURS WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250501
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1201 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN WAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MS RVR VALLEY THAT WAS ROTATING ARND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON STLT/RADAR TRENDS WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NW AL (50%) TO LOWEST
OVER NE AL (20%). WILL KEEP THUNDER OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...MAINLY DUE TO 8H
WINDS OF 30/40 KTS AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER THE SEVERE
WX THREAT LOOKS LOW TONIGHT BUT IN ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN. INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE AS
YOU GO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...THUS THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER WOULD BE
OVER NW AL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MS AS AN
UPPER RIDGE...OFF THE SERN COASTLINE...KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN TO THE
WEST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER NW AL
TO KEEP SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA GOING UNTIL ARND 10Z. THUS THE BEST
CHC OF PCPN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE AT KMSL. ON MONDAY
TIMING OF PCPN FOR THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRICKY BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH THE AFTN HOURS WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250501
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1201 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN WAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MS RVR VALLEY THAT WAS ROTATING ARND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON STLT/RADAR TRENDS WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NW AL (50%) TO LOWEST
OVER NE AL (20%). WILL KEEP THUNDER OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...MAINLY DUE TO 8H
WINDS OF 30/40 KTS AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER THE SEVERE
WX THREAT LOOKS LOW TONIGHT BUT IN ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN. INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE AS
YOU GO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...THUS THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER WOULD BE
OVER NW AL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MS AS AN
UPPER RIDGE...OFF THE SERN COASTLINE...KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN TO THE
WEST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER NW AL
TO KEEP SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA GOING UNTIL ARND 10Z. THUS THE BEST
CHC OF PCPN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE AT KMSL. ON MONDAY
TIMING OF PCPN FOR THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRICKY BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH THE AFTN HOURS WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250501
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1201 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN WAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MS RVR VALLEY THAT WAS ROTATING ARND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON STLT/RADAR TRENDS WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NW AL (50%) TO LOWEST
OVER NE AL (20%). WILL KEEP THUNDER OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...MAINLY DUE TO 8H
WINDS OF 30/40 KTS AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER THE SEVERE
WX THREAT LOOKS LOW TONIGHT BUT IN ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN. INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE AS
YOU GO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...THUS THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER WOULD BE
OVER NW AL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MS AS AN
UPPER RIDGE...OFF THE SERN COASTLINE...KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN TO THE
WEST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER NW AL
TO KEEP SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA GOING UNTIL ARND 10Z. THUS THE BEST
CHC OF PCPN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE AT KMSL. ON MONDAY
TIMING OF PCPN FOR THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRICKY BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH THE AFTN HOURS WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 250456 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
25/06Z ISSUANCE...A MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND OF 11 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD
LAYERS OF 1500 TO 2500 FEET...ESPECIALLY NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
MID MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MID MONDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES DUE TO
RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DROP TO MVFR CRITERIA...WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS TO
LIFR CRITERIA POSSIBLE. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER MOVING INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS AREA
BEACHES...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY LAND PORTIONS
OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING. AS A PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY PASSES NORTHWEST OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AM
EXPECTING COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO INCREASE. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED(GENERALLY LESS THAN <100 M^2/S^2). CAPE ON THE OTHER
HAND...WITH VALUES STARTING OUT THIS EVENING AT OR ABOVE
1500J/LG...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THEN EASE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE...WIND-SHEAR WISE. INSTABILITY
DECREASES...THOUGH REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO POP UP.

FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...
FEEL TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S IS WARRANTED. AS ONE MOVES EAST...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED.

ON THE COASTAL FRONT...WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES. /16

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY EVENING. WITH DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STRONGER
STORMS COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ISSUES. MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO
UPPER 60S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. 07/MB

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND...CLOSER TO HOME...RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...MEANING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT POPS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.6 TO 2 INCHES. RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS
LOW...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...POPS TAPER OFF AND TREND MORE SEASONAL WITH
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE
STORMS EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUMMER-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
.WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TRANSITIONING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN 90 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE BEACHES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES WITH UPPER 60S FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
07/MB

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
SOME EASING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY ONSHORE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  82  72  84  71 /  50  70  40  60  40
PENSACOLA   74  84  74  84  74 /  40  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      74  82  74  85  75 /  40  60  30  60  40
EVERGREEN   68  85  70  86  69 /  40  60  40  60  50
WAYNESBORO  68  80  69  84  69 /  40  60  40  70  60
CAMDEN      68  84  68  86  68 /  40  60  50  70  60
CRESTVIEW   70  86  71  86  71 /  40  60  30  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 250456 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
25/06Z ISSUANCE...A MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND OF 11 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD
LAYERS OF 1500 TO 2500 FEET...ESPECIALLY NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
MID MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MID MONDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES DUE TO
RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DROP TO MVFR CRITERIA...WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS TO
LIFR CRITERIA POSSIBLE. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER MOVING INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS AREA
BEACHES...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY LAND PORTIONS
OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING. AS A PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY PASSES NORTHWEST OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AM
EXPECTING COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO INCREASE. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED(GENERALLY LESS THAN <100 M^2/S^2). CAPE ON THE OTHER
HAND...WITH VALUES STARTING OUT THIS EVENING AT OR ABOVE
1500J/LG...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THEN EASE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE...WIND-SHEAR WISE. INSTABILITY
DECREASES...THOUGH REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO POP UP.

FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...
FEEL TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S IS WARRANTED. AS ONE MOVES EAST...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED.

ON THE COASTAL FRONT...WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES. /16

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY EVENING. WITH DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STRONGER
STORMS COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ISSUES. MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO
UPPER 60S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. 07/MB

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND...CLOSER TO HOME...RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...MEANING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT POPS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.6 TO 2 INCHES. RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS
LOW...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...POPS TAPER OFF AND TREND MORE SEASONAL WITH
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE
STORMS EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUMMER-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
.WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TRANSITIONING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN 90 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE BEACHES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES WITH UPPER 60S FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
07/MB

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
SOME EASING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY ONSHORE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  82  72  84  71 /  50  70  40  60  40
PENSACOLA   74  84  74  84  74 /  40  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      74  82  74  85  75 /  40  60  30  60  40
EVERGREEN   68  85  70  86  69 /  40  60  40  60  50
WAYNESBORO  68  80  69  84  69 /  40  60  40  70  60
CAMDEN      68  84  68  86  68 /  40  60  50  70  60
CRESTVIEW   70  86  71  86  71 /  40  60  30  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 250442
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1142 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVED AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN LESS THAN ONE
HOUR. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS WERE REPORTED BUT CERTAINLY SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. A FEW STORMS BECAME SEVERE AND KNOCKED SOME TREES
DOWN...AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES WERE ELEVATED AND SOME DECENT
REFLECTIVITY CORES DEVELOPED IE DECENT UPDRAFTS.

MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS STILL CONTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. ONE BAND WAS JUST EAST OF I-65 WHILE ANOTHER ONE WAS
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA STATE LINE. ADDED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FAR WEST AND EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS
EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THERE ARE LEFTOVER MESO SCALE
BOUNDARIES ALL OVER THE PLACE AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD
LITERALLY POP UP ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS BUT MANY SPOTS
HAVE ALREADY HIT LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT
NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TOWARD MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG BUT
DO NOT THINK THE RESTRICTION WILL BE SEVERE OR WIDESPREAD...BUT
WILL MONITOR.

MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXCEPT A LARGER
COVERAGE...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL CONVERGENCE ZONES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA SO A SHOWER/STORM COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE TONIGHT...BUT BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE WEST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST NEAR SUNRISE
AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA CLOSER TO SUNRISE. MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST HOW LOW THEY
WILL GO BUT SOME IFR APPEARS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND
WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE HAD A RATHER DRY START TO MAY BUT THE
RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO INCREASE. BUT ALL STREAMS REMAIN
BELOW THE ABOVE NORMAL STAGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COULD REACH 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THIS MAY EVEN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
RATHER BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF TRAVELERS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SLOW DOWN IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO PREVENT HYDROPLANING AND
WATCH FOR PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  81  69  81  69 /  50  70  50  80  60
ANNISTON    69  82  70  82  69 /  50  60  50  80  60
BIRMINGHAM  69  81  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
TUSCALOOSA  71  80  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
CALERA      68  82  69  82  68 /  30  60  50  80  60
AUBURN      66  83  68  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  71  84  71  83  70 /  50  60  40  80  60
TROY        70  84  69  82  68 /  50  60  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 250442
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1142 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVED AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN LESS THAN ONE
HOUR. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS WERE REPORTED BUT CERTAINLY SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. A FEW STORMS BECAME SEVERE AND KNOCKED SOME TREES
DOWN...AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES WERE ELEVATED AND SOME DECENT
REFLECTIVITY CORES DEVELOPED IE DECENT UPDRAFTS.

MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS STILL CONTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. ONE BAND WAS JUST EAST OF I-65 WHILE ANOTHER ONE WAS
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA STATE LINE. ADDED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FAR WEST AND EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS
EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THERE ARE LEFTOVER MESO SCALE
BOUNDARIES ALL OVER THE PLACE AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD
LITERALLY POP UP ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS BUT MANY SPOTS
HAVE ALREADY HIT LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT
NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TOWARD MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG BUT
DO NOT THINK THE RESTRICTION WILL BE SEVERE OR WIDESPREAD...BUT
WILL MONITOR.

MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXCEPT A LARGER
COVERAGE...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL CONVERGENCE ZONES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA SO A SHOWER/STORM COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE TONIGHT...BUT BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE WEST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST NEAR SUNRISE
AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA CLOSER TO SUNRISE. MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST HOW LOW THEY
WILL GO BUT SOME IFR APPEARS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND
WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE HAD A RATHER DRY START TO MAY BUT THE
RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO INCREASE. BUT ALL STREAMS REMAIN
BELOW THE ABOVE NORMAL STAGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COULD REACH 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THIS MAY EVEN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
RATHER BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF TRAVELERS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SLOW DOWN IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO PREVENT HYDROPLANING AND
WATCH FOR PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  81  69  81  69 /  50  70  50  80  60
ANNISTON    69  82  70  82  69 /  50  60  50  80  60
BIRMINGHAM  69  81  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
TUSCALOOSA  71  80  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
CALERA      68  82  69  82  68 /  30  60  50  80  60
AUBURN      66  83  68  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  71  84  71  83  70 /  50  60  40  80  60
TROY        70  84  69  82  68 /  50  60  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 250442
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1142 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVED AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN LESS THAN ONE
HOUR. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS WERE REPORTED BUT CERTAINLY SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. A FEW STORMS BECAME SEVERE AND KNOCKED SOME TREES
DOWN...AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES WERE ELEVATED AND SOME DECENT
REFLECTIVITY CORES DEVELOPED IE DECENT UPDRAFTS.

MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS STILL CONTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. ONE BAND WAS JUST EAST OF I-65 WHILE ANOTHER ONE WAS
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA STATE LINE. ADDED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FAR WEST AND EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS
EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THERE ARE LEFTOVER MESO SCALE
BOUNDARIES ALL OVER THE PLACE AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD
LITERALLY POP UP ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS BUT MANY SPOTS
HAVE ALREADY HIT LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT
NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TOWARD MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG BUT
DO NOT THINK THE RESTRICTION WILL BE SEVERE OR WIDESPREAD...BUT
WILL MONITOR.

MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXCEPT A LARGER
COVERAGE...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL CONVERGENCE ZONES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA SO A SHOWER/STORM COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE TONIGHT...BUT BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE WEST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST NEAR SUNRISE
AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA CLOSER TO SUNRISE. MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST HOW LOW THEY
WILL GO BUT SOME IFR APPEARS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND
WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE HAD A RATHER DRY START TO MAY BUT THE
RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO INCREASE. BUT ALL STREAMS REMAIN
BELOW THE ABOVE NORMAL STAGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COULD REACH 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THIS MAY EVEN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
RATHER BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF TRAVELERS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SLOW DOWN IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO PREVENT HYDROPLANING AND
WATCH FOR PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  81  69  81  69 /  50  70  50  80  60
ANNISTON    69  82  70  82  69 /  50  60  50  80  60
BIRMINGHAM  69  81  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
TUSCALOOSA  71  80  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
CALERA      68  82  69  82  68 /  30  60  50  80  60
AUBURN      66  83  68  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  71  84  71  83  70 /  50  60  40  80  60
TROY        70  84  69  82  68 /  50  60  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 250442
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1142 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVED AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN LESS THAN ONE
HOUR. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS WERE REPORTED BUT CERTAINLY SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. A FEW STORMS BECAME SEVERE AND KNOCKED SOME TREES
DOWN...AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES WERE ELEVATED AND SOME DECENT
REFLECTIVITY CORES DEVELOPED IE DECENT UPDRAFTS.

MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS STILL CONTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. ONE BAND WAS JUST EAST OF I-65 WHILE ANOTHER ONE WAS
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA STATE LINE. ADDED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FAR WEST AND EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS
EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THERE ARE LEFTOVER MESO SCALE
BOUNDARIES ALL OVER THE PLACE AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD
LITERALLY POP UP ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS BUT MANY SPOTS
HAVE ALREADY HIT LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT
NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TOWARD MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG BUT
DO NOT THINK THE RESTRICTION WILL BE SEVERE OR WIDESPREAD...BUT
WILL MONITOR.

MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXCEPT A LARGER
COVERAGE...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL CONVERGENCE ZONES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA SO A SHOWER/STORM COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE TONIGHT...BUT BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE WEST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST NEAR SUNRISE
AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA CLOSER TO SUNRISE. MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST HOW LOW THEY
WILL GO BUT SOME IFR APPEARS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND
WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE HAD A RATHER DRY START TO MAY BUT THE
RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO INCREASE. BUT ALL STREAMS REMAIN
BELOW THE ABOVE NORMAL STAGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COULD REACH 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THIS MAY EVEN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
RATHER BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF TRAVELERS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SLOW DOWN IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO PREVENT HYDROPLANING AND
WATCH FOR PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  81  69  81  69 /  50  70  50  80  60
ANNISTON    69  82  70  82  69 /  50  60  50  80  60
BIRMINGHAM  69  81  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
TUSCALOOSA  71  80  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
CALERA      68  82  69  82  68 /  30  60  50  80  60
AUBURN      66  83  68  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  71  84  71  83  70 /  50  60  40  80  60
TROY        70  84  69  82  68 /  50  60  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 250442
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1142 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVED AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN LESS THAN ONE
HOUR. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS WERE REPORTED BUT CERTAINLY SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. A FEW STORMS BECAME SEVERE AND KNOCKED SOME TREES
DOWN...AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES WERE ELEVATED AND SOME DECENT
REFLECTIVITY CORES DEVELOPED IE DECENT UPDRAFTS.

MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS STILL CONTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. ONE BAND WAS JUST EAST OF I-65 WHILE ANOTHER ONE WAS
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA STATE LINE. ADDED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FAR WEST AND EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS
EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THERE ARE LEFTOVER MESO SCALE
BOUNDARIES ALL OVER THE PLACE AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD
LITERALLY POP UP ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS BUT MANY SPOTS
HAVE ALREADY HIT LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT
NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TOWARD MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG BUT
DO NOT THINK THE RESTRICTION WILL BE SEVERE OR WIDESPREAD...BUT
WILL MONITOR.

MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXCEPT A LARGER
COVERAGE...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL CONVERGENCE ZONES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA SO A SHOWER/STORM COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE TONIGHT...BUT BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE WEST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST NEAR SUNRISE
AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA CLOSER TO SUNRISE. MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST HOW LOW THEY
WILL GO BUT SOME IFR APPEARS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND
WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE HAD A RATHER DRY START TO MAY BUT THE
RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO INCREASE. BUT ALL STREAMS REMAIN
BELOW THE ABOVE NORMAL STAGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COULD REACH 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THIS MAY EVEN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
RATHER BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF TRAVELERS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SLOW DOWN IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO PREVENT HYDROPLANING AND
WATCH FOR PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  81  69  81  69 /  50  70  50  80  60
ANNISTON    69  82  70  82  69 /  50  60  50  80  60
BIRMINGHAM  69  81  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
TUSCALOOSA  71  80  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
CALERA      68  82  69  82  68 /  30  60  50  80  60
AUBURN      66  83  68  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  71  84  71  83  70 /  50  60  40  80  60
TROY        70  84  69  82  68 /  50  60  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 250258
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
958 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVED AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN LESS THAN ONE
HOUR. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS WERE REPORTED BUT CERTAINLY SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. A FEW STORMS BECAME SEVERE AND KNOCKED SOME TREES
DOWN...AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES WERE ELEVATED AND SOME DECENT
REFLECTIVITY CORES DEVELOPED IE DECENT UPDRAFTS.

MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS STILL CONTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. ONE BAND WAS JUST EAST OF I-65 WHILE ANOTHER ONE WAS
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA STATE LINE. ADDED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FAR WEST AND EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS
EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THERE ARE LEFTOVER MESO SCALE
BOUNDARIES ALL OVER THE PLACE AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD
LITERALLY POP UP ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS BUT MANY SPOTS
HAVE ALREADY HIT LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT
NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TOWARD MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG BUT
DO NOT THINK THE RESTRICTION WILL BE SEVERE OR WIDESPREAD...BUT
WILL MONITOR.

MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXCEPT A LARGER
COVERAGE...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS THAT ROLLED THRU BHM/EET A BIT EARLIER HAVE WEAKENED AND
BEGUN TO DIMINISH. HAVE ONLY CARRIED VCTS AT ANB/ASN FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TS IMPACTS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. IT`S
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WE`LL HAVE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANYTHING ATTM BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...WITH SOME IFR
POSSIBLE...BY 09Z OR SO AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. CONDITIONS
MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SE AT 5-10 KTS.

19


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND
WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE HAD A RATHER DRY START TO MAY BUT THE
RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO INCREASE. BUT ALL STREAMS REMAIN
BELOW THE ABOVE NORMAL STAGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COULD REACH 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THIS MAY EVEN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
RATHER BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF TRAVELERS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SLOW DOWN IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO PREVENT HYDROPLANING AND
WATCH FOR PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST
CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE NOTED
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THIS HAS SET
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT SATELLITE ESTIMATED PW
VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE MESOANALYSIS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE OVER
2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 15-20 KTS. THEREFORE...THERE
COULD BE A FEW STORMS PULSE UP TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
BUT STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING...THERE WILL BE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT THAT COULD
KEEP COVERAGE GOING A BIT MORE THAN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP
WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON LABOR DAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES WHICH IS WELL OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 60-70% RANGE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS INDICATE
THAT SBCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH. IN ADDITION...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS THAT FORM AND THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF MINOR
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ELEVATED WITH MODELS INDICATING PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AND EXPECT A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHIFT AS THE LAST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN. PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO DROP SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...POPS IN THE 50- 70% RANGE CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MORE OF A TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER TIME PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  81  69  81  69 /  50  70  50  80  60
ANNISTON    69  82  70  82  69 /  50  60  50  80  60
BIRMINGHAM  69  81  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
TUSCALOOSA  71  80  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
CALERA      68  82  69  82  68 /  30  60  50  80  60
AUBURN      66  83  68  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  71  84  71  83  70 /  50  60  40  80  60
TROY        70  84  69  82  68 /  50  60  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 250258
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
958 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVED AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN LESS THAN ONE
HOUR. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS WERE REPORTED BUT CERTAINLY SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. A FEW STORMS BECAME SEVERE AND KNOCKED SOME TREES
DOWN...AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES WERE ELEVATED AND SOME DECENT
REFLECTIVITY CORES DEVELOPED IE DECENT UPDRAFTS.

MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS STILL CONTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. ONE BAND WAS JUST EAST OF I-65 WHILE ANOTHER ONE WAS
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA STATE LINE. ADDED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FAR WEST AND EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS
EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THERE ARE LEFTOVER MESO SCALE
BOUNDARIES ALL OVER THE PLACE AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD
LITERALLY POP UP ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS BUT MANY SPOTS
HAVE ALREADY HIT LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT
NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TOWARD MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG BUT
DO NOT THINK THE RESTRICTION WILL BE SEVERE OR WIDESPREAD...BUT
WILL MONITOR.

MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXCEPT A LARGER
COVERAGE...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS THAT ROLLED THRU BHM/EET A BIT EARLIER HAVE WEAKENED AND
BEGUN TO DIMINISH. HAVE ONLY CARRIED VCTS AT ANB/ASN FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TS IMPACTS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. IT`S
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WE`LL HAVE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANYTHING ATTM BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...WITH SOME IFR
POSSIBLE...BY 09Z OR SO AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. CONDITIONS
MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SE AT 5-10 KTS.

19


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND
WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE HAD A RATHER DRY START TO MAY BUT THE
RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO INCREASE. BUT ALL STREAMS REMAIN
BELOW THE ABOVE NORMAL STAGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COULD REACH 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THIS MAY EVEN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
RATHER BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF TRAVELERS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SLOW DOWN IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO PREVENT HYDROPLANING AND
WATCH FOR PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST
CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE NOTED
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THIS HAS SET
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT SATELLITE ESTIMATED PW
VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE MESOANALYSIS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE OVER
2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 15-20 KTS. THEREFORE...THERE
COULD BE A FEW STORMS PULSE UP TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
BUT STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING...THERE WILL BE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT THAT COULD
KEEP COVERAGE GOING A BIT MORE THAN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP
WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON LABOR DAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES WHICH IS WELL OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 60-70% RANGE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS INDICATE
THAT SBCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH. IN ADDITION...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS THAT FORM AND THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF MINOR
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ELEVATED WITH MODELS INDICATING PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AND EXPECT A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHIFT AS THE LAST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN. PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO DROP SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...POPS IN THE 50- 70% RANGE CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MORE OF A TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER TIME PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  81  69  81  69 /  50  70  50  80  60
ANNISTON    69  82  70  82  69 /  50  60  50  80  60
BIRMINGHAM  69  81  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
TUSCALOOSA  71  80  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
CALERA      68  82  69  82  68 /  30  60  50  80  60
AUBURN      66  83  68  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  71  84  71  83  70 /  50  60  40  80  60
TROY        70  84  69  82  68 /  50  60  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 250258
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
958 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVED AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN LESS THAN ONE
HOUR. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS WERE REPORTED BUT CERTAINLY SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. A FEW STORMS BECAME SEVERE AND KNOCKED SOME TREES
DOWN...AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES WERE ELEVATED AND SOME DECENT
REFLECTIVITY CORES DEVELOPED IE DECENT UPDRAFTS.

MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS STILL CONTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. ONE BAND WAS JUST EAST OF I-65 WHILE ANOTHER ONE WAS
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA STATE LINE. ADDED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FAR WEST AND EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS
EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THERE ARE LEFTOVER MESO SCALE
BOUNDARIES ALL OVER THE PLACE AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD
LITERALLY POP UP ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS BUT MANY SPOTS
HAVE ALREADY HIT LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT
NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TOWARD MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG BUT
DO NOT THINK THE RESTRICTION WILL BE SEVERE OR WIDESPREAD...BUT
WILL MONITOR.

MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXCEPT A LARGER
COVERAGE...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS THAT ROLLED THRU BHM/EET A BIT EARLIER HAVE WEAKENED AND
BEGUN TO DIMINISH. HAVE ONLY CARRIED VCTS AT ANB/ASN FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TS IMPACTS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. IT`S
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WE`LL HAVE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANYTHING ATTM BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...WITH SOME IFR
POSSIBLE...BY 09Z OR SO AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. CONDITIONS
MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SE AT 5-10 KTS.

19


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND
WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE HAD A RATHER DRY START TO MAY BUT THE
RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO INCREASE. BUT ALL STREAMS REMAIN
BELOW THE ABOVE NORMAL STAGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COULD REACH 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THIS MAY EVEN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
RATHER BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF TRAVELERS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SLOW DOWN IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO PREVENT HYDROPLANING AND
WATCH FOR PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST
CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE NOTED
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THIS HAS SET
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT SATELLITE ESTIMATED PW
VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE MESOANALYSIS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE OVER
2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 15-20 KTS. THEREFORE...THERE
COULD BE A FEW STORMS PULSE UP TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
BUT STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING...THERE WILL BE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT THAT COULD
KEEP COVERAGE GOING A BIT MORE THAN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP
WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON LABOR DAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES WHICH IS WELL OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 60-70% RANGE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS INDICATE
THAT SBCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH. IN ADDITION...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS THAT FORM AND THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF MINOR
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ELEVATED WITH MODELS INDICATING PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AND EXPECT A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHIFT AS THE LAST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN. PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO DROP SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...POPS IN THE 50- 70% RANGE CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MORE OF A TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER TIME PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  81  69  81  69 /  50  70  50  80  60
ANNISTON    69  82  70  82  69 /  50  60  50  80  60
BIRMINGHAM  69  81  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
TUSCALOOSA  71  80  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
CALERA      68  82  69  82  68 /  30  60  50  80  60
AUBURN      66  83  68  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  71  84  71  83  70 /  50  60  40  80  60
TROY        70  84  69  82  68 /  50  60  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 250258
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
958 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVED AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN LESS THAN ONE
HOUR. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS WERE REPORTED BUT CERTAINLY SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. A FEW STORMS BECAME SEVERE AND KNOCKED SOME TREES
DOWN...AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES WERE ELEVATED AND SOME DECENT
REFLECTIVITY CORES DEVELOPED IE DECENT UPDRAFTS.

MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS STILL CONTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. ONE BAND WAS JUST EAST OF I-65 WHILE ANOTHER ONE WAS
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA STATE LINE. ADDED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FAR WEST AND EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS
EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THERE ARE LEFTOVER MESO SCALE
BOUNDARIES ALL OVER THE PLACE AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD
LITERALLY POP UP ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS BUT MANY SPOTS
HAVE ALREADY HIT LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT
NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TOWARD MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG BUT
DO NOT THINK THE RESTRICTION WILL BE SEVERE OR WIDESPREAD...BUT
WILL MONITOR.

MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXCEPT A LARGER
COVERAGE...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS THAT ROLLED THRU BHM/EET A BIT EARLIER HAVE WEAKENED AND
BEGUN TO DIMINISH. HAVE ONLY CARRIED VCTS AT ANB/ASN FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TS IMPACTS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. IT`S
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WE`LL HAVE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANYTHING ATTM BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...WITH SOME IFR
POSSIBLE...BY 09Z OR SO AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. CONDITIONS
MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SE AT 5-10 KTS.

19


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND
WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE HAD A RATHER DRY START TO MAY BUT THE
RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO INCREASE. BUT ALL STREAMS REMAIN
BELOW THE ABOVE NORMAL STAGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COULD REACH 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THIS MAY EVEN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
RATHER BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF TRAVELERS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SLOW DOWN IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO PREVENT HYDROPLANING AND
WATCH FOR PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST
CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE NOTED
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THIS HAS SET
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT SATELLITE ESTIMATED PW
VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE MESOANALYSIS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE OVER
2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 15-20 KTS. THEREFORE...THERE
COULD BE A FEW STORMS PULSE UP TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
BUT STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING...THERE WILL BE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT THAT COULD
KEEP COVERAGE GOING A BIT MORE THAN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP
WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON LABOR DAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES WHICH IS WELL OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 60-70% RANGE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS INDICATE
THAT SBCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH. IN ADDITION...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS THAT FORM AND THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF MINOR
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ELEVATED WITH MODELS INDICATING PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AND EXPECT A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHIFT AS THE LAST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN. PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO DROP SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...POPS IN THE 50- 70% RANGE CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MORE OF A TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER TIME PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  81  69  81  69 /  50  70  50  80  60
ANNISTON    69  82  70  82  69 /  50  60  50  80  60
BIRMINGHAM  69  81  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
TUSCALOOSA  71  80  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
CALERA      68  82  69  82  68 /  30  60  50  80  60
AUBURN      66  83  68  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  71  84  71  83  70 /  50  60  40  80  60
TROY        70  84  69  82  68 /  50  60  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED STORM WORDING TO FCST/GRIDS...OTHERWISE MADE NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN WAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MS RVR VALLEY THAT WAS ROTATING ARND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON STLT/RADAR TRENDS WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NW AL (50%) TO LOWEST
OVER NE AL (20%). WILL KEEP THUNDER OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...MAINLY DUE TO 8H
WINDS OF 30/40 KTS AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER THE SEVERE
WX THREAT LOOKS LOW TONIGHT BUT IN ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN. INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE AS
YOU GO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...THUS THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER WOULD BE
OVER NW AL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 650 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MS
RVR VALLEY WAS PRODUCING SCT SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS
NRN AL ATTM. THUS EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL TSRA THRU
02Z AT BOTH TAF SITES. AFTER 02Z THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF. MORE SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER
TROF EDGES CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 11Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
11Z AND 19Z...AFTER 19Z VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED (EXCEPT MVFR IN
TSRA).

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 250220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED STORM WORDING TO FCST/GRIDS...OTHERWISE MADE NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN WAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MS RVR VALLEY THAT WAS ROTATING ARND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON STLT/RADAR TRENDS WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NW AL (50%) TO LOWEST
OVER NE AL (20%). WILL KEEP THUNDER OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...MAINLY DUE TO 8H
WINDS OF 30/40 KTS AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER THE SEVERE
WX THREAT LOOKS LOW TONIGHT BUT IN ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN. INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE AS
YOU GO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...THUS THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER WOULD BE
OVER NW AL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 650 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MS
RVR VALLEY WAS PRODUCING SCT SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS
NRN AL ATTM. THUS EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL TSRA THRU
02Z AT BOTH TAF SITES. AFTER 02Z THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF. MORE SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER
TROF EDGES CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 11Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
11Z AND 19Z...AFTER 19Z VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED (EXCEPT MVFR IN
TSRA).

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 250002
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
702 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST
CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE NOTED
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THIS HAS SET
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT SATELLITE ESTIMATED PW
VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE MESOANALYSIS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE OVER
2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 15-20 KTS. THEREFORE...THERE
COULD BE A FEW STORMS PULSE UP TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
BUT STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING...THERE WILL BE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT THAT COULD
KEEP COVERAGE GOING A BIT MORE THAN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP
WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON LABOR DAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES WHICH IS WELL OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 60-70% RANGE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS INDICATE
THAT SBCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH. IN ADDITION...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS THAT FORM AND THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF MINOR
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ELEVATED WITH MODELS INDICATING PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AND EXPECT A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHIFT AS THE LAST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN. PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO DROP SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...POPS IN THE 50- 70% RANGE CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MORE OF A TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER TIME PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS THAT ROLLED THRU BHM/EET A BIT EARLIER HAVE WEAKENED AND
BEGUN TO DIMINISH. HAVE ONLY CARRIED VCTS AT ANB/ASN FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TS IMPACTS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. IT`S
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WE`LL HAVE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANYTHING ATTM BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...WITH SOME IFR
POSSIBLE...BY 09Z OR SO AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. CONDITIONS
MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SE AT 5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  81  69  81  69 /  20  70  50  80  60
ANNISTON    70  82  70  82  69 /  20  60  50  80  60
BIRMINGHAM  70  81  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
TUSCALOOSA  71  80  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
CALERA      70  82  69  82  68 /  30  60  50  80  60
AUBURN      68  83  68  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  71  84  71  83  70 /  20  60  40  80  60
TROY        69  84  69  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 250002
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
702 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST
CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE NOTED
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THIS HAS SET
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT SATELLITE ESTIMATED PW
VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE MESOANALYSIS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE OVER
2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 15-20 KTS. THEREFORE...THERE
COULD BE A FEW STORMS PULSE UP TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
BUT STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING...THERE WILL BE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT THAT COULD
KEEP COVERAGE GOING A BIT MORE THAN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP
WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON LABOR DAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES WHICH IS WELL OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 60-70% RANGE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS INDICATE
THAT SBCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH. IN ADDITION...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS THAT FORM AND THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF MINOR
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ELEVATED WITH MODELS INDICATING PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AND EXPECT A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHIFT AS THE LAST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN. PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO DROP SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...POPS IN THE 50- 70% RANGE CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MORE OF A TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER TIME PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS THAT ROLLED THRU BHM/EET A BIT EARLIER HAVE WEAKENED AND
BEGUN TO DIMINISH. HAVE ONLY CARRIED VCTS AT ANB/ASN FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TS IMPACTS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. IT`S
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WE`LL HAVE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANYTHING ATTM BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...WITH SOME IFR
POSSIBLE...BY 09Z OR SO AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. CONDITIONS
MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SE AT 5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  81  69  81  69 /  20  70  50  80  60
ANNISTON    70  82  70  82  69 /  20  60  50  80  60
BIRMINGHAM  70  81  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
TUSCALOOSA  71  80  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
CALERA      70  82  69  82  68 /  30  60  50  80  60
AUBURN      68  83  68  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  71  84  71  83  70 /  20  60  40  80  60
TROY        69  84  69  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 250002
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
702 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST
CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE NOTED
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THIS HAS SET
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT SATELLITE ESTIMATED PW
VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE MESOANALYSIS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE OVER
2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 15-20 KTS. THEREFORE...THERE
COULD BE A FEW STORMS PULSE UP TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
BUT STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING...THERE WILL BE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT THAT COULD
KEEP COVERAGE GOING A BIT MORE THAN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP
WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON LABOR DAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES WHICH IS WELL OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 60-70% RANGE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS INDICATE
THAT SBCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH. IN ADDITION...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS THAT FORM AND THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF MINOR
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ELEVATED WITH MODELS INDICATING PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AND EXPECT A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHIFT AS THE LAST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN. PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO DROP SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...POPS IN THE 50- 70% RANGE CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MORE OF A TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER TIME PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS THAT ROLLED THRU BHM/EET A BIT EARLIER HAVE WEAKENED AND
BEGUN TO DIMINISH. HAVE ONLY CARRIED VCTS AT ANB/ASN FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TS IMPACTS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. IT`S
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WE`LL HAVE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANYTHING ATTM BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...WITH SOME IFR
POSSIBLE...BY 09Z OR SO AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. CONDITIONS
MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SE AT 5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  81  69  81  69 /  20  70  50  80  60
ANNISTON    70  82  70  82  69 /  20  60  50  80  60
BIRMINGHAM  70  81  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
TUSCALOOSA  71  80  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
CALERA      70  82  69  82  68 /  30  60  50  80  60
AUBURN      68  83  68  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  71  84  71  83  70 /  20  60  40  80  60
TROY        69  84  69  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 250002
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
702 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST
CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE NOTED
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THIS HAS SET
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT SATELLITE ESTIMATED PW
VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE MESOANALYSIS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE OVER
2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 15-20 KTS. THEREFORE...THERE
COULD BE A FEW STORMS PULSE UP TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
BUT STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING...THERE WILL BE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT THAT COULD
KEEP COVERAGE GOING A BIT MORE THAN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP
WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON LABOR DAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES WHICH IS WELL OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 60-70% RANGE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS INDICATE
THAT SBCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH. IN ADDITION...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS THAT FORM AND THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF MINOR
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ELEVATED WITH MODELS INDICATING PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AND EXPECT A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHIFT AS THE LAST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN. PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO DROP SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...POPS IN THE 50- 70% RANGE CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MORE OF A TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER TIME PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS THAT ROLLED THRU BHM/EET A BIT EARLIER HAVE WEAKENED AND
BEGUN TO DIMINISH. HAVE ONLY CARRIED VCTS AT ANB/ASN FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TS IMPACTS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. IT`S
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WE`LL HAVE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANYTHING ATTM BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...WITH SOME IFR
POSSIBLE...BY 09Z OR SO AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. CONDITIONS
MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SE AT 5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  81  69  81  69 /  20  70  50  80  60
ANNISTON    70  82  70  82  69 /  20  60  50  80  60
BIRMINGHAM  70  81  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
TUSCALOOSA  71  80  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
CALERA      70  82  69  82  68 /  30  60  50  80  60
AUBURN      68  83  68  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  71  84  71  83  70 /  20  60  40  80  60
TROY        69  84  69  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 242352 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
25/00Z ISSUANCE...A MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND OF 11 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD
LAYERS OF 1500 TO 2500 FEET...ESPECIALLY NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
DAYBREAK MONDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES DUE TO
RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DROP TO MVFR CRITERIA...WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS TO
LIFR CRITERIA POSSIBLE. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER MOVING INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS AREA
BEACHES...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY LAND PORTIONS
OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING. AS A PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY PASSES NORTHWEST OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AM
EXPECTING COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO INCREASE. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED(GENERALLY LESS THAN <100 M^2/S^2). CAPE ON THE OTHER
HAND...WITH VALUES STARTING OUT THIS EVENING AT OR ABOVE
1500J/LG...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THEN EASE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE...WIND-SHEAR WISE. INSTABILITY
DECREASES...THOUGH REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO POP UP.

FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...
FEEL TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S IS WARRANTED. AS ONE MOVES EAST...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED.

ON THE COASTAL FRONT...WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES. /16

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY EVENING. WITH DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STRONGER
STORMS COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ISSUES. MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO
UPPER 60S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. 07/MB

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND...CLOSER TO HOME...RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...MEANING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT POPS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.6 TO 2 INCHES. RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS
LOW...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...POPS TAPER OFF AND TREND MORE SEASONAL WITH
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE
STORMS EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUMMER-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
..WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TRANSITIONING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN 90 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE BEACHES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES WITH UPPER 60S FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
07/MB

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
SOME EASING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY ONSHORE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  82  72  84  71 /  50  70  40  60  40
PENSACOLA   74  84  74  84  74 /  40  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      74  82  74  85  75 /  40  60  30  60  40
EVERGREEN   68  85  70  86  69 /  40  60  40  60  50
WAYNESBORO  68  80  69  84  69 /  40  60  40  70  60
CAMDEN      68  84  68  86  68 /  40  60  50  70  60
CRESTVIEW   70  86  71  86  71 /  40  60  30  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 242352 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
25/00Z ISSUANCE...A MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND OF 11 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD
LAYERS OF 1500 TO 2500 FEET...ESPECIALLY NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
DAYBREAK MONDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES DUE TO
RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DROP TO MVFR CRITERIA...WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS TO
LIFR CRITERIA POSSIBLE. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER MOVING INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS AREA
BEACHES...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY LAND PORTIONS
OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING. AS A PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY PASSES NORTHWEST OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AM
EXPECTING COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO INCREASE. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED(GENERALLY LESS THAN <100 M^2/S^2). CAPE ON THE OTHER
HAND...WITH VALUES STARTING OUT THIS EVENING AT OR ABOVE
1500J/LG...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THEN EASE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE...WIND-SHEAR WISE. INSTABILITY
DECREASES...THOUGH REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO POP UP.

FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...
FEEL TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S IS WARRANTED. AS ONE MOVES EAST...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED.

ON THE COASTAL FRONT...WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES. /16

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY EVENING. WITH DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STRONGER
STORMS COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ISSUES. MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO
UPPER 60S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. 07/MB

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND...CLOSER TO HOME...RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...MEANING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT POPS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.6 TO 2 INCHES. RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS
LOW...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...POPS TAPER OFF AND TREND MORE SEASONAL WITH
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE
STORMS EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUMMER-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
..WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TRANSITIONING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN 90 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE BEACHES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES WITH UPPER 60S FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
07/MB

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
SOME EASING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY ONSHORE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  82  72  84  71 /  50  70  40  60  40
PENSACOLA   74  84  74  84  74 /  40  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      74  82  74  85  75 /  40  60  30  60  40
EVERGREEN   68  85  70  86  69 /  40  60  40  60  50
WAYNESBORO  68  80  69  84  69 /  40  60  40  70  60
CAMDEN      68  84  68  86  68 /  40  60  50  70  60
CRESTVIEW   70  86  71  86  71 /  40  60  30  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 242352 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
25/00Z ISSUANCE...A MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND OF 11 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD
LAYERS OF 1500 TO 2500 FEET...ESPECIALLY NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
DAYBREAK MONDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES DUE TO
RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DROP TO MVFR CRITERIA...WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS TO
LIFR CRITERIA POSSIBLE. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER MOVING INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS AREA
BEACHES...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY LAND PORTIONS
OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING. AS A PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY PASSES NORTHWEST OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AM
EXPECTING COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO INCREASE. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED(GENERALLY LESS THAN <100 M^2/S^2). CAPE ON THE OTHER
HAND...WITH VALUES STARTING OUT THIS EVENING AT OR ABOVE
1500J/LG...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THEN EASE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE...WIND-SHEAR WISE. INSTABILITY
DECREASES...THOUGH REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO POP UP.

FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...
FEEL TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S IS WARRANTED. AS ONE MOVES EAST...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED.

ON THE COASTAL FRONT...WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES. /16

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY EVENING. WITH DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STRONGER
STORMS COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ISSUES. MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO
UPPER 60S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. 07/MB

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND...CLOSER TO HOME...RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...MEANING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT POPS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.6 TO 2 INCHES. RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS
LOW...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...POPS TAPER OFF AND TREND MORE SEASONAL WITH
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE
STORMS EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUMMER-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
..WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TRANSITIONING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN 90 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE BEACHES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES WITH UPPER 60S FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
07/MB

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
SOME EASING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY ONSHORE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  82  72  84  71 /  50  70  40  60  40
PENSACOLA   74  84  74  84  74 /  40  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      74  82  74  85  75 /  40  60  30  60  40
EVERGREEN   68  85  70  86  69 /  40  60  40  60  50
WAYNESBORO  68  80  69  84  69 /  40  60  40  70  60
CAMDEN      68  84  68  86  68 /  40  60  50  70  60
CRESTVIEW   70  86  71  86  71 /  40  60  30  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 242352 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
25/00Z ISSUANCE...A MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND OF 11 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD
LAYERS OF 1500 TO 2500 FEET...ESPECIALLY NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
DAYBREAK MONDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES DUE TO
RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DROP TO MVFR CRITERIA...WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS TO
LIFR CRITERIA POSSIBLE. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER MOVING INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS AREA
BEACHES...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY LAND PORTIONS
OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING. AS A PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY PASSES NORTHWEST OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AM
EXPECTING COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO INCREASE. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED(GENERALLY LESS THAN <100 M^2/S^2). CAPE ON THE OTHER
HAND...WITH VALUES STARTING OUT THIS EVENING AT OR ABOVE
1500J/LG...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THEN EASE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE...WIND-SHEAR WISE. INSTABILITY
DECREASES...THOUGH REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO POP UP.

FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...
FEEL TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S IS WARRANTED. AS ONE MOVES EAST...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED.

ON THE COASTAL FRONT...WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES. /16

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY EVENING. WITH DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STRONGER
STORMS COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ISSUES. MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO
UPPER 60S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. 07/MB

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND...CLOSER TO HOME...RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...MEANING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT POPS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.6 TO 2 INCHES. RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS
LOW...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...POPS TAPER OFF AND TREND MORE SEASONAL WITH
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE
STORMS EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUMMER-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
..WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TRANSITIONING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN 90 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE BEACHES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES WITH UPPER 60S FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
07/MB

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
SOME EASING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY ONSHORE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  82  72  84  71 /  50  70  40  60  40
PENSACOLA   74  84  74  84  74 /  40  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      74  82  74  85  75 /  40  60  30  60  40
EVERGREEN   68  85  70  86  69 /  40  60  40  60  50
WAYNESBORO  68  80  69  84  69 /  40  60  40  70  60
CAMDEN      68  84  68  86  68 /  40  60  50  70  60
CRESTVIEW   70  86  71  86  71 /  40  60  30  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 242352 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
25/00Z ISSUANCE...A MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND OF 11 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD
LAYERS OF 1500 TO 2500 FEET...ESPECIALLY NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
DAYBREAK MONDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES DUE TO
RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DROP TO MVFR CRITERIA...WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS TO
LIFR CRITERIA POSSIBLE. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER MOVING INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS AREA
BEACHES...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY LAND PORTIONS
OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING. AS A PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY PASSES NORTHWEST OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AM
EXPECTING COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO INCREASE. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED(GENERALLY LESS THAN <100 M^2/S^2). CAPE ON THE OTHER
HAND...WITH VALUES STARTING OUT THIS EVENING AT OR ABOVE
1500J/LG...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THEN EASE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE...WIND-SHEAR WISE. INSTABILITY
DECREASES...THOUGH REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO POP UP.

FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...
FEEL TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S IS WARRANTED. AS ONE MOVES EAST...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED.

ON THE COASTAL FRONT...WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES. /16

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY EVENING. WITH DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STRONGER
STORMS COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ISSUES. MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO
UPPER 60S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. 07/MB

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND...CLOSER TO HOME...RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...MEANING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT POPS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.6 TO 2 INCHES. RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS
LOW...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...POPS TAPER OFF AND TREND MORE SEASONAL WITH
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE
STORMS EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUMMER-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
..WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TRANSITIONING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN 90 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE BEACHES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES WITH UPPER 60S FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
07/MB

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
SOME EASING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY ONSHORE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  82  72  84  71 /  50  70  40  60  40
PENSACOLA   74  84  74  84  74 /  40  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      74  82  74  85  75 /  40  60  30  60  40
EVERGREEN   68  85  70  86  69 /  40  60  40  60  50
WAYNESBORO  68  80  69  84  69 /  40  60  40  70  60
CAMDEN      68  84  68  86  68 /  40  60  50  70  60
CRESTVIEW   70  86  71  86  71 /  40  60  30  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 242350
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MS
RVR VALLEY WAS PRODUCING SCT SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS
NRN AL ATTM. THUS EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL TSRA THRU
02Z AT BOTH TAF SITES. AFTER 02Z THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF. MORE SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER
TROF EDGES CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 11Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
11Z AND 19Z...AFTER 19Z VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED (EXCEPT MVFR IN
TSRA).

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 242350
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MS
RVR VALLEY WAS PRODUCING SCT SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS
NRN AL ATTM. THUS EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL TSRA THRU
02Z AT BOTH TAF SITES. AFTER 02Z THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF. MORE SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER
TROF EDGES CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 11Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
11Z AND 19Z...AFTER 19Z VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED (EXCEPT MVFR IN
TSRA).

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 242350
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MS
RVR VALLEY WAS PRODUCING SCT SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS
NRN AL ATTM. THUS EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL TSRA THRU
02Z AT BOTH TAF SITES. AFTER 02Z THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF. MORE SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER
TROF EDGES CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 11Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
11Z AND 19Z...AFTER 19Z VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED (EXCEPT MVFR IN
TSRA).

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 242350
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MS
RVR VALLEY WAS PRODUCING SCT SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS
NRN AL ATTM. THUS EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL TSRA THRU
02Z AT BOTH TAF SITES. AFTER 02Z THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF. MORE SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER
TROF EDGES CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 11Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
11Z AND 19Z...AFTER 19Z VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED (EXCEPT MVFR IN
TSRA).

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 242107
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER MOVING INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS AREA
BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY LAND PORTIONS
OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING. AS A PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY PASSES NORTHWEST OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AM
EXPECTING COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO INCREASE. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED(GENERALLY LESS THAN <100 M^2/S^2). CAPE ON THE OTHER
HAND...WITH VALUES STARTING OUT THIS EVENING AT OR ABOVE
1500J/LG...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THEN EASE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE...WIND-SHEAR WISE. INSTABILITY
DECREASES...THOUGH REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO POP UP.

FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...
FEEL TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S IS WARRANTED. AS ONE MOVES EAST...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED.

ON THE COASTAL FRONT...WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES. /16

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY EVENING. WITH DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STRONGER
STORMS COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ISSUES. MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO
UPPER 60S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. 07/MB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND...CLOSER TO HOME...RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...MEANING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT POPS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.6 TO 2 INCHES. RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS
LOW...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...POPS TAPER OFF AND TREND MORE SEASONAL WITH
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE
STORMS EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUMMER-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TRANSITIONING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN 90 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE BEACHES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES WITH UPPER 60S FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PASSING NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST...ALONG WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
CIGS/VISBYS DROPPING TO LOW END MVFR LEVELS. /16

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID
WEEK WITH A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. SOME EASING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY ONSHORE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  82  72  84  71 /  50  70  40  60  40
PENSACOLA   74  84  74  84  74 /  40  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      74  82  74  85  75 /  40  60  30  60  40
EVERGREEN   68  85  70  86  69 /  40  60  40  60  50
WAYNESBORO  68  80  69  84  69 /  40  60  40  70  60
CAMDEN      68  84  68  86  68 /  40  60  50  70  60
CRESTVIEW   70  86  71  86  71 /  40  60  30  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 242107
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER MOVING INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS AREA
BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY LAND PORTIONS
OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING. AS A PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY PASSES NORTHWEST OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AM
EXPECTING COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO INCREASE. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED(GENERALLY LESS THAN <100 M^2/S^2). CAPE ON THE OTHER
HAND...WITH VALUES STARTING OUT THIS EVENING AT OR ABOVE
1500J/LG...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THEN EASE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE...WIND-SHEAR WISE. INSTABILITY
DECREASES...THOUGH REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO POP UP.

FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...
FEEL TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S IS WARRANTED. AS ONE MOVES EAST...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED.

ON THE COASTAL FRONT...WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES. /16

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY EVENING. WITH DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STRONGER
STORMS COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ISSUES. MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO
UPPER 60S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. 07/MB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND...CLOSER TO HOME...RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...MEANING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT POPS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.6 TO 2 INCHES. RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS
LOW...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...POPS TAPER OFF AND TREND MORE SEASONAL WITH
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE
STORMS EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUMMER-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TRANSITIONING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN 90 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE BEACHES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES WITH UPPER 60S FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PASSING NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST...ALONG WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
CIGS/VISBYS DROPPING TO LOW END MVFR LEVELS. /16

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID
WEEK WITH A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. SOME EASING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY ONSHORE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  82  72  84  71 /  50  70  40  60  40
PENSACOLA   74  84  74  84  74 /  40  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      74  82  74  85  75 /  40  60  30  60  40
EVERGREEN   68  85  70  86  69 /  40  60  40  60  50
WAYNESBORO  68  80  69  84  69 /  40  60  40  70  60
CAMDEN      68  84  68  86  68 /  40  60  50  70  60
CRESTVIEW   70  86  71  86  71 /  40  60  30  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 241948
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
248 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST
CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE NOTED
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THIS HAS SET
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT SATELLITE ESTIMATED PW
VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE MESOANALYSIS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE OVER
2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 15-20 KTS. THEREFORE...THERE
COULD BE A FEW STORMS PULSE UP TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
BUT STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING...THERE WILL BE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT THAT COULD
KEEP COVERAGE GOING A BIT MORE THAN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP
WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON LABOR DAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES WHICH IS WELL OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 60-70% RANGE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS INDICATE
THAT SBCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH. IN ADDITION...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS THAT FORM AND THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF MINOR
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSE RIVER VALLEYS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED
WITH MODELS INDICATING PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AND EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT AS THE LAST
OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN. PW VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEREFORE...POPS IN THE 50-
70% RANGE CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MORE OF A TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER TIME PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME CONVECTION STARTING TO POP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. MOST OF THE THUNDER IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS. SOME SHOWERS MAY HIT TCL/MGM/TOI DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THINGS PROGRESS OUT NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. FOR NOW...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
THUNDER AS CHANCES ARE LOWER. MVFR TO POSSIBLY SOME IFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES GET BETTER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

08/MK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  81  69  81  69 /  20  70  50  80  60
ANNISTON    70  82  70  82  69 /  20  60  50  80  60
BIRMINGHAM  70  81  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
TUSCALOOSA  71  80  70  81  69 /  40  70  50  80  60
CALERA      70  82  69  82  68 /  30  60  50  80  60
AUBURN      68  83  68  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  71  84  71  83  70 /  20  60  40  80  60
TROY        69  84  69  82  68 /  20  60  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241925
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A RETURN OF
CU/TCU ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE LATER EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MON...AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEARS THE REGION. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES...AS SE WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  81  68  81 /  30  60  50  80
SHOALS        69  80  69  79 /  40  60  50  80
VINEMONT      67  80  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
FAYETTEVILLE  67  79  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
ALBERTVILLE   66  81  67  81 /  30  60  50  70
FORT PAYNE    66  80  67  80 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241925
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A RETURN OF
CU/TCU ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE LATER EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MON...AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEARS THE REGION. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES...AS SE WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  81  68  81 /  30  60  50  80
SHOALS        69  80  69  79 /  40  60  50  80
VINEMONT      67  80  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
FAYETTEVILLE  67  79  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
ALBERTVILLE   66  81  67  81 /  30  60  50  70
FORT PAYNE    66  80  67  80 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241925
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A RETURN OF
CU/TCU ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE LATER EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MON...AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEARS THE REGION. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES...AS SE WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  81  68  81 /  30  60  50  80
SHOALS        69  80  69  79 /  40  60  50  80
VINEMONT      67  80  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
FAYETTEVILLE  67  79  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
ALBERTVILLE   66  81  67  81 /  30  60  50  70
FORT PAYNE    66  80  67  80 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241925
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A RETURN OF
CU/TCU ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE LATER EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MON...AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEARS THE REGION. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES...AS SE WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  81  68  81 /  30  60  50  80
SHOALS        69  80  69  79 /  40  60  50  80
VINEMONT      67  80  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
FAYETTEVILLE  67  79  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
ALBERTVILLE   66  81  67  81 /  30  60  50  70
FORT PAYNE    66  80  67  80 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 241833 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
133 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY AND
A DECAYING BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE COAST. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS SLOW TO INITIATE AND MAY HOLD
OFF ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AS
MAIN ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE DECAYING BOUNDARY.
CURRENT HIGHS LOOKED GOOD FOR TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS.
ALSO...TWEAKED BACK THE CHANCE POPS UNTIL AFTER 20Z. UPDATE OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME CONVECTION STARTING TO POP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. MOST OF THE THUNDER IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS. SOME SHOWERS MAY HIT TCL/MGM/TOI DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THINGS PROGRESS OUT NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. FOR NOW...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
THUNDER AS CHANCES ARE LOWER. MVFR TO POSSIBLY SOME IFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES GET BETTER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE AIR MASS IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER TEXAS. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND NOON AND SPREADING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO STORMS WILL BE MAINLY PULSE TYPE AND NOT ABLE TO
SUSTAIN MUCH LONGEVITY. THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING ACROSS ALABAMA DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE TROF WILL KEEP
STORMS RATHER ACTIVE OVER MISSISSIPPI. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROF AXIS WILL PUSH INTO WEST ALABAMA ON MONDAY...AND KEPT
FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. CLOUD
COVER AND MEAGER BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.50 TO TO 1.80
INCHES. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SOME HIGHER BULK SHEAR
VALUES OVER MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HIGHER BULK
SHEAR COULD REACH WEST ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING...BUT FORECAST
VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 40 KNOTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DO NOT SEEM TO FAVOR SEVERE
STORMS DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MARGINAL BULK SHEAR
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NORTH ALABAMA WILL REMAIN ON THE
BOTTOM SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY EACH
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  82  68  81  68 /  20  60  50  70  60
ANNISTON    70  83  69  82  68 /  20  50  50  60  60
BIRMINGHAM  70  83  70  82  69 /  30  60  50  70  60
TUSCALOOSA  70  83  70  83  69 /  30  60  50  80  60
CALERA      70  83  69  83  68 /  30  60  50  60  60
AUBURN      67  83  68  82  68 /  10  50  30  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  86  71  85  70 /  20  60  30  60  50
TROY        69  85  69  84  68 /  20  50  30  60  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/08/58




000
FXUS64 KBMX 241833 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
133 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY AND
A DECAYING BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE COAST. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS SLOW TO INITIATE AND MAY HOLD
OFF ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AS
MAIN ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE DECAYING BOUNDARY.
CURRENT HIGHS LOOKED GOOD FOR TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS.
ALSO...TWEAKED BACK THE CHANCE POPS UNTIL AFTER 20Z. UPDATE OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME CONVECTION STARTING TO POP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. MOST OF THE THUNDER IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS. SOME SHOWERS MAY HIT TCL/MGM/TOI DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THINGS PROGRESS OUT NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. FOR NOW...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
THUNDER AS CHANCES ARE LOWER. MVFR TO POSSIBLY SOME IFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES GET BETTER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE AIR MASS IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER TEXAS. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND NOON AND SPREADING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO STORMS WILL BE MAINLY PULSE TYPE AND NOT ABLE TO
SUSTAIN MUCH LONGEVITY. THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING ACROSS ALABAMA DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE TROF WILL KEEP
STORMS RATHER ACTIVE OVER MISSISSIPPI. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROF AXIS WILL PUSH INTO WEST ALABAMA ON MONDAY...AND KEPT
FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. CLOUD
COVER AND MEAGER BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.50 TO TO 1.80
INCHES. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SOME HIGHER BULK SHEAR
VALUES OVER MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HIGHER BULK
SHEAR COULD REACH WEST ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING...BUT FORECAST
VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 40 KNOTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DO NOT SEEM TO FAVOR SEVERE
STORMS DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MARGINAL BULK SHEAR
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NORTH ALABAMA WILL REMAIN ON THE
BOTTOM SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY EACH
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  82  68  81  68 /  20  60  50  70  60
ANNISTON    70  83  69  82  68 /  20  50  50  60  60
BIRMINGHAM  70  83  70  82  69 /  30  60  50  70  60
TUSCALOOSA  70  83  70  83  69 /  30  60  50  80  60
CALERA      70  83  69  83  68 /  30  60  50  60  60
AUBURN      67  83  68  82  68 /  10  50  30  60  40
MONTGOMERY  71  86  71  85  70 /  20  60  30  60  50
TROY        69  85  69  84  68 /  20  50  30  60  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/08/58



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241745 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1033 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...AS IT NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER
(MID-UPPER 60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A RETURN OF
CU/TCU ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE LATER EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MON...AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEARS THE REGION. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES...AS SE WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241745 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1033 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...AS IT NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER
(MID-UPPER 60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A RETURN OF
CU/TCU ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE LATER EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MON...AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEARS THE REGION. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES...AS SE WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241745 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1033 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...AS IT NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER
(MID-UPPER 60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A RETURN OF
CU/TCU ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE LATER EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MON...AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEARS THE REGION. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES...AS SE WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 241538 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1038 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY AND
A DECAYING BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE COAST. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS SLOW TO INITIATE AND MAY HOLD
OFF ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AS
MAIN ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE DECAYING BOUNDARY.
CURRENT HIGHS LOOKED GOOD FOR TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS.
ALSO...TWEAKED BACK THE CHANCE POPS UNTIL AFTER 20Z. UPDATE OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS HAVE EXPANDED WESTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING KTOI AND KANB. KMGM MAY ALSO
BE AFFECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH PREVAILING
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE OF
ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF IS LOW AT THE CURRENT TIME.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.

56/GDG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE AIR MASS IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER TEXAS. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND NOON AND SPREADING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO STORMS WILL BE MAINLY PULSE TYPE AND NOT ABLE TO
SUSTAIN MUCH LONGEVITY. THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING ACROSS ALABAMA DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE TROF WILL KEEP STORMS
RATHER ACTIVE OVER MISSISSIPPI. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
AXIS WILL PUSH INTO WEST ALABAMA ON MONDAY...AND KEPT FAIRLY HIGH
RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.50 TO TO 1.80
INCHES. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SOME HIGHER BULK SHEAR
VALUES OVER MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HIGHER BULK
SHEAR COULD REACH WEST ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING...BUT FORECAST
VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 40 KNOTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DO NOT SEEM TO FAVOR SEVERE
STORMS DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MARGINAL BULK SHEAR
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NORTH ALABAMA WILL REMAIN ON THE
BOTTOM SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY EACH
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  68  82  68  81 /  10  20  60  50  70
ANNISTON    83  70  83  69  82 /  10  20  50  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  84  70  83  70  82 /  30  30  60  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  86  70  83  70  83 /  30  30  60  50  80
CALERA      85  70  83  69  83 /  30  30  60  50  60
AUBURN      85  67  83  68  82 /  10  10  50  30  60
MONTGOMERY  88  71  86  71  85 /  30  20  60  30  60
TROY        87  69  85  69  84 /  30  20  50  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/56/58



000
FXUS64 KBMX 241538 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1038 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY AND
A DECAYING BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE COAST. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS SLOW TO INITIATE AND MAY HOLD
OFF ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AS
MAIN ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE DECAYING BOUNDARY.
CURRENT HIGHS LOOKED GOOD FOR TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS.
ALSO...TWEAKED BACK THE CHANCE POPS UNTIL AFTER 20Z. UPDATE OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS HAVE EXPANDED WESTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING KTOI AND KANB. KMGM MAY ALSO
BE AFFECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH PREVAILING
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE OF
ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF IS LOW AT THE CURRENT TIME.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.

56/GDG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE AIR MASS IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER TEXAS. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND NOON AND SPREADING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO STORMS WILL BE MAINLY PULSE TYPE AND NOT ABLE TO
SUSTAIN MUCH LONGEVITY. THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING ACROSS ALABAMA DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE TROF WILL KEEP STORMS
RATHER ACTIVE OVER MISSISSIPPI. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
AXIS WILL PUSH INTO WEST ALABAMA ON MONDAY...AND KEPT FAIRLY HIGH
RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.50 TO TO 1.80
INCHES. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SOME HIGHER BULK SHEAR
VALUES OVER MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HIGHER BULK
SHEAR COULD REACH WEST ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING...BUT FORECAST
VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 40 KNOTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DO NOT SEEM TO FAVOR SEVERE
STORMS DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MARGINAL BULK SHEAR
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NORTH ALABAMA WILL REMAIN ON THE
BOTTOM SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY EACH
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  68  82  68  81 /  10  20  60  50  70
ANNISTON    83  70  83  69  82 /  10  20  50  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  84  70  83  70  82 /  30  30  60  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  86  70  83  70  83 /  30  30  60  50  80
CALERA      85  70  83  69  83 /  30  30  60  50  60
AUBURN      85  67  83  68  82 /  10  10  50  30  60
MONTGOMERY  88  71  86  71  85 /  30  20  60  30  60
TROY        87  69  85  69  84 /  30  20  50  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/56/58




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241534 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1033 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...AS IT NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER
(MID-UPPER 60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BTWN
24/15Z-25/01Z. -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241534 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1033 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...AS IT NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER
(MID-UPPER 60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BTWN
24/15Z-25/01Z. -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241534 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1033 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...AS IT NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER
(MID-UPPER 60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BTWN
24/15Z-25/01Z. -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241534 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1033 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...AS IT NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER
(MID-UPPER 60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BTWN
24/15Z-25/01Z. -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241517 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1017 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGE IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...AS IT
NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER (MID-UPPER
60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND WIND
GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BTWN
24/15Z-25/01Z. -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241517 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1017 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGE IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...AS IT
NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER (MID-UPPER
60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND WIND
GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BTWN
24/15Z-25/01Z. -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241517 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1017 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGE IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...AS IT
NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER (MID-UPPER
60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND WIND
GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BTWN
24/15Z-25/01Z. -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 241227
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
727 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE AIR MASS IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER TEXAS. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND NOON AND SPREADING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
FAIRLY WEA...SO STORMS WILL BE MAINLY PULSE TYPE AND NOT ABLE TO
SUSTAIN MUCH LONGEVITY. THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING ACROSS ALABAMA DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE TROF WILL KEEP
STORMS RATHER ACTIVE OVER MISSISSIPPI. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROF AXIS WILL PUSH INTO WEST ALABAMA ON MONDAY...AND KEPT
FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. CLOUD
COVER AND MEAGER BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.50 TO TO 1.80
INCHES. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SOME HIGHER BULK SHEAR
VALUES OVER MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HIGHER BULK
SHEAR COULD REACH WEST ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING...BUT FORECAST
VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 40 KNOTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DO NOT SEEM TO FAVOR SEVERE
STORMS DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MARGINAL BULK SHEAR
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NORTH ALABAMA WILL REMAIN ON THE
BOTTOM SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY EACH
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS HAVE EXPANDED WESTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING KTOI AND KANB. KMGM MAY ALSO
BE AFFECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH PREVAILING
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE OF
ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF IS LOW AT THE CURRENT TIME.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  68  82  68  81 /  20  20  60  50  70
ANNISTON    83  70  83  69  82 /  10  20  50  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  84  70  83  70  82 /  30  30  60  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  83  70  83 /  40  30  60  50  80
CALERA      85  70  83  69  83 /  30  30  60  50  60
AUBURN      84  67  83  68  82 /  10  10  50  30  60
MONTGOMERY  88  71  86  71  85 /  30  20  60  30  60
TROY        87  69  85  69  84 /  30  20  50  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 241117
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
617 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. RADAR INDICATES A WESTWARD EXPANSION INTO COASTAL
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AS WELL. UPGRADED POP AND QPF FOR. NO OTHER
CHANGES FORTHCOMING AT THE MOMENT. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER MOVING INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE BEACHES...

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE LONG WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN
INDICATES A 500 MB TROUGH ORIENTED ALONG 70W AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ANTILLES. THE GFS360 FULL SPECTRUM OF THE
500 MB PROG INDICATES THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN A QUASI-STEADY
STATE ALONG 60W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SINCE THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE
IS ALIGNED OVER ONSLOW BAY...THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 500
MB WILL OPEN UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TO EFFECT A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST ALONG THE BEACHES.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING INTO THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL GET INTO THE MID
2000`S INLAND AND MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL BE ABOUT HALF THAT. LIFTED
INDEX -3 TO -4 SO ALL INDICATE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY. WETBULB ZEROS WILL BE AROUND 13000 FEET INDICATING HAIL WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST ADIABATIC FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSION IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS
BEING COUNTER-INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND AT
925 MB IS INDICATED SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 KNOTS SO LIMITED ORGANIZATION
OF CONVECTIVE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO THE WEST AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES...AND UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE EAST. AND LOW TO MID 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS INLAND AROUND 70 GIVE OR TAKE A
DEGREE...AND MID 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE. /77

MEMORIAL DAY...AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FORECAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITH TROUGH PIVOTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TAKING UP POSITION INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN GULF. A LEAD...POTENTIALLY STRONG
MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN THESE TWO
PRESSURE SYSTEMS...SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE
DAY. WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE BEING PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES ON AVERAGE)...LARGER
SCALE ASCENT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE IMPULSE ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY FAVORS SHOWERS/STORMS BECOMING LIKELY. NOT
SO GOOD NEWS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND BEACH TRIPS. FORECASTERS
ANTICIPATE A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THE DEEPER LAYER
FORCING...SO IT APPEARS FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW. EVEN SO...SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE EFFICIENT IN DROPPING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IN
POOR DRAINAGE AND LOWER LYING AREAS. OTHER IMPACTS FROM STORMS WILL
BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...THE EQUATION CANNOT RULE THEM OUT
ENTIRELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING
ACROSS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN THREAT IN ANY SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
US...MAINTAINS A SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE DAY. WITH THE MODERATE TO
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASE IN SWELL/BREAKER
ACTION...A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
EXISTS ALONG OUR SHORES. /10

DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MEMORIAL DAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S WEST OF I-65 AND MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE INTERSTATE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 OVER THE INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 70S SOUTHERN
ZONES. /10

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...BULK OF ENERGY AT THE BASE
OF UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY SHEARS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING
MOSTLY UNCHANGED...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY.

AT THE CLOSE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...LOOK TO BE GETTING BACK INTO A
MORE SEASONAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MODE. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
FORMING ON COASTAL SEABREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TREND HIGHER...INTO
THE UPPER 80S/POSSIBLY LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE
INTERIOR. BEACH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOLD INTO THE MID 80S...WITH
FLOW OFF THE GULF. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 INTERIOR TO MID 70S BEACH
AREAS. /10

AVIATION...
24.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE DAYTIME FROM THE SOUTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST LATER TODAY AND DIMINISHING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WIND BECOMING CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE SHORELINE
TODAY. /77

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BE SHORT
LIVED...NONETHELESS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW POSTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 8 FEET AND
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
AND SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TODAY. BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE CHOPPY. THE SWAN
CALCULATIONS OF SEA HEIGHTS WERE IN NEED OF AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO
AGREE WITH THE WNA AND GWW WAVE MODELS...AS WELL AS WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  73  84  72  85 /  30  50  70  40  70
PENSACOLA   84  76  85  75  84 /  30  30  50  40  70
DESTIN      83  77  85  76  84 /  30  20  50  30  70
EVERGREEN   87  70  87  70  86 /  30  30  60  40  70
WAYNESBORO  85  69  82  69  84 /  30  50  70  40  70
CAMDEN      87  69  86  69  85 /  30  30  60  40  60
CRESTVIEW   88  71  88  70  86 /  30  20  50  40  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 241117
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
617 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. RADAR INDICATES A WESTWARD EXPANSION INTO COASTAL
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AS WELL. UPGRADED POP AND QPF FOR. NO OTHER
CHANGES FORTHCOMING AT THE MOMENT. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER MOVING INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE BEACHES...

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE LONG WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN
INDICATES A 500 MB TROUGH ORIENTED ALONG 70W AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ANTILLES. THE GFS360 FULL SPECTRUM OF THE
500 MB PROG INDICATES THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN A QUASI-STEADY
STATE ALONG 60W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SINCE THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE
IS ALIGNED OVER ONSLOW BAY...THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 500
MB WILL OPEN UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TO EFFECT A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST ALONG THE BEACHES.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING INTO THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL GET INTO THE MID
2000`S INLAND AND MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL BE ABOUT HALF THAT. LIFTED
INDEX -3 TO -4 SO ALL INDICATE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY. WETBULB ZEROS WILL BE AROUND 13000 FEET INDICATING HAIL WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST ADIABATIC FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSION IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS
BEING COUNTER-INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND AT
925 MB IS INDICATED SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 KNOTS SO LIMITED ORGANIZATION
OF CONVECTIVE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO THE WEST AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES...AND UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE EAST. AND LOW TO MID 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS INLAND AROUND 70 GIVE OR TAKE A
DEGREE...AND MID 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE. /77

MEMORIAL DAY...AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FORECAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITH TROUGH PIVOTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TAKING UP POSITION INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN GULF. A LEAD...POTENTIALLY STRONG
MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN THESE TWO
PRESSURE SYSTEMS...SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE
DAY. WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE BEING PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES ON AVERAGE)...LARGER
SCALE ASCENT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE IMPULSE ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY FAVORS SHOWERS/STORMS BECOMING LIKELY. NOT
SO GOOD NEWS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND BEACH TRIPS. FORECASTERS
ANTICIPATE A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THE DEEPER LAYER
FORCING...SO IT APPEARS FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW. EVEN SO...SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE EFFICIENT IN DROPPING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IN
POOR DRAINAGE AND LOWER LYING AREAS. OTHER IMPACTS FROM STORMS WILL
BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...THE EQUATION CANNOT RULE THEM OUT
ENTIRELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING
ACROSS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN THREAT IN ANY SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
US...MAINTAINS A SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE DAY. WITH THE MODERATE TO
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASE IN SWELL/BREAKER
ACTION...A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
EXISTS ALONG OUR SHORES. /10

DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MEMORIAL DAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S WEST OF I-65 AND MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE INTERSTATE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 OVER THE INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 70S SOUTHERN
ZONES. /10

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...BULK OF ENERGY AT THE BASE
OF UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY SHEARS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING
MOSTLY UNCHANGED...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY.

AT THE CLOSE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...LOOK TO BE GETTING BACK INTO A
MORE SEASONAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MODE. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
FORMING ON COASTAL SEABREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TREND HIGHER...INTO
THE UPPER 80S/POSSIBLY LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE
INTERIOR. BEACH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOLD INTO THE MID 80S...WITH
FLOW OFF THE GULF. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 INTERIOR TO MID 70S BEACH
AREAS. /10

AVIATION...
24.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE DAYTIME FROM THE SOUTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST LATER TODAY AND DIMINISHING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WIND BECOMING CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE SHORELINE
TODAY. /77

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BE SHORT
LIVED...NONETHELESS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW POSTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 8 FEET AND
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
AND SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TODAY. BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE CHOPPY. THE SWAN
CALCULATIONS OF SEA HEIGHTS WERE IN NEED OF AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO
AGREE WITH THE WNA AND GWW WAVE MODELS...AS WELL AS WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  73  84  72  85 /  30  50  70  40  70
PENSACOLA   84  76  85  75  84 /  30  30  50  40  70
DESTIN      83  77  85  76  84 /  30  20  50  30  70
EVERGREEN   87  70  87  70  86 /  30  30  60  40  70
WAYNESBORO  85  69  82  69  84 /  30  50  70  40  70
CAMDEN      87  69  86  69  85 /  30  30  60  40  60
CRESTVIEW   88  71  88  70  86 /  30  20  50  40  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 241110 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BTWN
24/15Z-25/01Z. -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241110 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BTWN
24/15Z-25/01Z. -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 240950
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER MOVING INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE LONG WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN
INDICATES A 500 MB TROUGH ORIENTED ALONG 70W AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ANTILLES. THE GFS360 FULL SPECTRUM OF THE
500 MB PROG INDICATES THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN A QUASI-STEADY
STATE ALONG 60W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SINCE THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE
IS ALIGNED OVER ONSLOW BAY...THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 500
MB WILL OPEN UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TO EFFECT A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST ALONG THE BEACHES.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING INTO THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL GET INTO THE MID
2000`S INLAND AND MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL BE ABOUT HALF THAT. LIFTED
INDEX -3 TO -4 SO ALL INDICATE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY. WETBULB ZEROS WILL BE AROUND 13000 FEET INDICATING HAIL WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST ADIABATIC FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSION IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS
BEING COUNTER-INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND AT
925 MB IS INDICATED SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 KNOTS SO LIMITED ORGANIZATION
OF CONVECTIVE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO THE WEST AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES...AND UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE EAST. AND LOW TO MID 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS INLAND AROUND 70 GIVE OR TAKE A
DEGREE...AND MID 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE. /77

MEMORIAL DAY...AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FORECAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITH TROUGH PIVOTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TAKING UP POSITION INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN GULF. A LEAD...POTENTIALLY STRONG
MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN THESE TWO
PRESSURE SYSTEMS...SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE
DAY. WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE BEING PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES ON AVERAGE)...LARGER
SCALE ASCENT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE IMPULSE ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY FAVORS SHOWERS/STORMS BECOMING LIKELY. NOT
SO GOOD NEWS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND BEACH TRIPS. FORECASTERS
ANTICIPATE A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THE DEEPER LAYER
FORCING...SO IT APPEARS FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW. EVEN SO...SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE EFFICIENT IN DROPPING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IN
POOR DRAINAGE AND LOWER LYING AREAS. OTHER IMPACTS FROM STORMS WILL
BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...THE EQUATION CANNOT RULE THEM OUT
ENTIRELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING
ACROSS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN THREAT IN ANY SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
US...MAINTAINS A SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE DAY. WITH THE MODERATE TO
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASE IN SWELL/BREAKER
ACTION...A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
EXISTS ALONG OUR SHORES. /10

DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MEMORIAL DAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S WEST OF I-65 AND MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE INTERSTATE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 OVER THE INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 70S SOUTHERN
ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...BULK OF ENERGY AT THE BASE
OF UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY SHEARS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING
MOSTLY UNCHANGED...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY.

AT THE CLOSE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...LOOK TO BE GETTING BACK INTO A
MORE SEASONAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MODE. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
FORMING ON COASTAL SEABREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TREND HIGHER...INTO
THE UPPER 80S/POSSIBLY LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE
INTERIOR. BEACH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOLD INTO THE MID 80S...WITH
FLOW OFF THE GULF. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 INTERIOR TO MID 70S BEACH
AREAS. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
24.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE DAYTIME FROM THE SOUTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST LATER TODAY AND DIMINISHING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WIND BECOMING CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE SHORELINE
TODAY. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BE SHORT
LIVED...NONETHELESS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW POSTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 8 FEET AND
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
AND SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TODAY. BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE CHOPPY. THE SWAN
CALCULATIONS OF SEA HEIGHTS WERE IN NEED OF AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO
AGREE WITH THE WNA AND GWW WAVE MODELS...AS WELL AS WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  73  84  72  85 /  30  50  70  40  70
PENSACOLA   84  76  85  75  84 /  30  30  50  40  70
DESTIN      83  77  85  76  84 /  30  20  50  30  70
EVERGREEN   87  70  87  70  86 /  30  30  60  40  70
WAYNESBORO  85  69  82  69  84 /  30  50  70  40  70
CAMDEN      87  69  86  69  85 /  30  30  60  40  60
CRESTVIEW   88  71  88  70  86 /  30  20  50  40  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 240950
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER MOVING INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE LONG WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN
INDICATES A 500 MB TROUGH ORIENTED ALONG 70W AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ANTILLES. THE GFS360 FULL SPECTRUM OF THE
500 MB PROG INDICATES THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN A QUASI-STEADY
STATE ALONG 60W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SINCE THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE
IS ALIGNED OVER ONSLOW BAY...THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 500
MB WILL OPEN UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TO EFFECT A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST ALONG THE BEACHES.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING INTO THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL GET INTO THE MID
2000`S INLAND AND MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL BE ABOUT HALF THAT. LIFTED
INDEX -3 TO -4 SO ALL INDICATE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY. WETBULB ZEROS WILL BE AROUND 13000 FEET INDICATING HAIL WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST ADIABATIC FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSION IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS
BEING COUNTER-INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND AT
925 MB IS INDICATED SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 KNOTS SO LIMITED ORGANIZATION
OF CONVECTIVE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO THE WEST AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES...AND UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE EAST. AND LOW TO MID 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS INLAND AROUND 70 GIVE OR TAKE A
DEGREE...AND MID 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE. /77

MEMORIAL DAY...AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FORECAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITH TROUGH PIVOTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TAKING UP POSITION INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN GULF. A LEAD...POTENTIALLY STRONG
MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN THESE TWO
PRESSURE SYSTEMS...SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE
DAY. WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE BEING PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES ON AVERAGE)...LARGER
SCALE ASCENT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE IMPULSE ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY FAVORS SHOWERS/STORMS BECOMING LIKELY. NOT
SO GOOD NEWS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND BEACH TRIPS. FORECASTERS
ANTICIPATE A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THE DEEPER LAYER
FORCING...SO IT APPEARS FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW. EVEN SO...SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE EFFICIENT IN DROPPING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IN
POOR DRAINAGE AND LOWER LYING AREAS. OTHER IMPACTS FROM STORMS WILL
BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...THE EQUATION CANNOT RULE THEM OUT
ENTIRELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING
ACROSS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN THREAT IN ANY SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
US...MAINTAINS A SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE DAY. WITH THE MODERATE TO
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASE IN SWELL/BREAKER
ACTION...A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
EXISTS ALONG OUR SHORES. /10

DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MEMORIAL DAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S WEST OF I-65 AND MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE INTERSTATE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 OVER THE INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 70S SOUTHERN
ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...BULK OF ENERGY AT THE BASE
OF UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY SHEARS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING
MOSTLY UNCHANGED...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY.

AT THE CLOSE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...LOOK TO BE GETTING BACK INTO A
MORE SEASONAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MODE. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
FORMING ON COASTAL SEABREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TREND HIGHER...INTO
THE UPPER 80S/POSSIBLY LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE
INTERIOR. BEACH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOLD INTO THE MID 80S...WITH
FLOW OFF THE GULF. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 INTERIOR TO MID 70S BEACH
AREAS. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
24.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE DAYTIME FROM THE SOUTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST LATER TODAY AND DIMINISHING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WIND BECOMING CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE SHORELINE
TODAY. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BE SHORT
LIVED...NONETHELESS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW POSTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 8 FEET AND
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
AND SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TODAY. BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE CHOPPY. THE SWAN
CALCULATIONS OF SEA HEIGHTS WERE IN NEED OF AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO
AGREE WITH THE WNA AND GWW WAVE MODELS...AS WELL AS WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  73  84  72  85 /  30  50  70  40  70
PENSACOLA   84  76  85  75  84 /  30  30  50  40  70
DESTIN      83  77  85  76  84 /  30  20  50  30  70
EVERGREEN   87  70  87  70  86 /  30  30  60  40  70
WAYNESBORO  85  69  82  69  84 /  30  50  70  40  70
CAMDEN      87  69  86  69  85 /  30  30  60  40  60
CRESTVIEW   88  71  88  70  86 /  30  20  50  40  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 240910
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE AIR MASS IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER TEXAS. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND NOON AND SPREADING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
FAIRLY WEA...SO STORMS WILL BE MAINLY PULSE TYPE AND NOT ABLE TO
SUSTAIN MUCH LONGEVITY. THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING ACROSS ALABAMA DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE TROF WILL KEEP
STORMS RATHER ACTIVE OVER MISSISSIPPI. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROF AXIS WILL PUSH INTO WEST ALABAMA ON MONDAY...AND KEPT
FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. CLOUD
COVER AND MEAGER BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.50 TO TO 1.80
INCHES. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SOME HIGHER BULK SHEAR
VALUES OVER MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HIGHER BULK
SHEAR COULD REACH WEST ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING...BUT FORECAST
VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 40 KNOTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DO NOT SEEM TO FAVOR SEVERE
STORMS DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MARGINAL BULK SHEAR
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NORTH ALABAMA WILL REMAIN ON THE
BOTTOM SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY EACH
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. WILL STILL CLOSELY WATCH KTOI AND KMGM AS AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK COULD STILL PUSH WESTWARD CLOSE TO THOSE TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN CLOUDS HAVING AN IMPACT AND HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE ONLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  68  82  68  81 /  20  20  60  50  70
ANNISTON    83  70  83  69  82 /  10  20  50  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  84  70  83  70  82 /  30  30  60  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  83  70  83 /  40  30  60  50  80
CALERA      85  70  83  69  83 /  30  30  60  50  60
AUBURN      84  67  83  68  82 /  10  10  50  30  60
MONTGOMERY  88  71  86  71  85 /  30  20  60  30  60
TROY        87  69  85  69  84 /  30  20  50  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 240910
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE AIR MASS IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER TEXAS. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND NOON AND SPREADING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
FAIRLY WEA...SO STORMS WILL BE MAINLY PULSE TYPE AND NOT ABLE TO
SUSTAIN MUCH LONGEVITY. THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING ACROSS ALABAMA DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE TROF WILL KEEP
STORMS RATHER ACTIVE OVER MISSISSIPPI. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROF AXIS WILL PUSH INTO WEST ALABAMA ON MONDAY...AND KEPT
FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. CLOUD
COVER AND MEAGER BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.50 TO TO 1.80
INCHES. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SOME HIGHER BULK SHEAR
VALUES OVER MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HIGHER BULK
SHEAR COULD REACH WEST ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING...BUT FORECAST
VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 40 KNOTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DO NOT SEEM TO FAVOR SEVERE
STORMS DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MARGINAL BULK SHEAR
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NORTH ALABAMA WILL REMAIN ON THE
BOTTOM SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY EACH
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. WILL STILL CLOSELY WATCH KTOI AND KMGM AS AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK COULD STILL PUSH WESTWARD CLOSE TO THOSE TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN CLOUDS HAVING AN IMPACT AND HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE ONLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  68  82  68  81 /  20  20  60  50  70
ANNISTON    83  70  83  69  82 /  10  20  50  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  84  70  83  70  82 /  30  30  60  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  83  70  83 /  40  30  60  50  80
CALERA      85  70  83  69  83 /  30  30  60  50  60
AUBURN      84  67  83  68  82 /  10  10  50  30  60
MONTGOMERY  88  71  86  71  85 /  30  20  60  30  60
TROY        87  69  85  69  84 /  30  20  50  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 240704
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...A FEW/SCT BLOWOFF CI WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SUNDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. NEW NAM
DATA SHOWS A CHC OF SOME SCT PCPN MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH VCSH SINCE INSTABILITY DURING THAT TIME FRAME DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT FOR TSRA ATTM.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    87  67  81  68 /  10  30  70  60
SHOALS        86  68  78  68 /  20  30  90  60
VINEMONT      84  66  80  67 /  10  30  70  60
FAYETTEVILLE  84  66  80  67 /  10  20  70  60
ALBERTVILLE   84  66  82  66 /  10  20  70  60
FORT PAYNE    84  66  82  66 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 240704
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...A FEW/SCT BLOWOFF CI WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SUNDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. NEW NAM
DATA SHOWS A CHC OF SOME SCT PCPN MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH VCSH SINCE INSTABILITY DURING THAT TIME FRAME DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT FOR TSRA ATTM.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    87  67  81  68 /  10  30  70  60
SHOALS        86  68  78  68 /  20  30  90  60
VINEMONT      84  66  80  67 /  10  30  70  60
FAYETTEVILLE  84  66  80  67 /  10  20  70  60
ALBERTVILLE   84  66  82  66 /  10  20  70  60
FORT PAYNE    84  66  82  66 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 240548
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A BIT WARMER THIS EVENING THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO QUITE A BIT WARMER. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE BETWEEN
THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND THE LOW TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...SOME
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE FELT BE MORNING. THIS EASTERLY WIND IS
ALSO BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING SOME INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THIS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FOR FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.

MODIFIED THE TEMPERATURE TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS THE CLEAR
SKIES WERE ALLOWING A COOL DOWN...BUT JUST STARTED AT A HIGHER
TEMP THAN LAST NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE A
GREAT EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AND KEPT THEM IN THE 50S AND 60S.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. WILL STILL CLOSELY WATCH KTOI AND KMGM AS AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK COULD STILL PUSH WESTWARD CLOSE TO THOSE TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN CLOUDS HAVING AN IMPACT AND HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE ONLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  68  82  68  79 /  10  20  50  50  70
ANNISTON    83  70  83  69  80 /  10  20  50  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  84  70  83  70  80 /  20  20  50  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  83  70  81 /  50  30  60  50  70
CALERA      85  70  83  69  80 /  30  20  60  50  70
AUBURN      84  67  83  68  81 /  10  20  50  30  60
MONTGOMERY  88  71  86  71  82 /  30  20  50  30  70
TROY        87  69  85  69  82 /  20  20  50  30  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 240548
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A BIT WARMER THIS EVENING THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO QUITE A BIT WARMER. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE BETWEEN
THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND THE LOW TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...SOME
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE FELT BE MORNING. THIS EASTERLY WIND IS
ALSO BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING SOME INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THIS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FOR FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.

MODIFIED THE TEMPERATURE TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS THE CLEAR
SKIES WERE ALLOWING A COOL DOWN...BUT JUST STARTED AT A HIGHER
TEMP THAN LAST NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE A
GREAT EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AND KEPT THEM IN THE 50S AND 60S.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. WILL STILL CLOSELY WATCH KTOI AND KMGM AS AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK COULD STILL PUSH WESTWARD CLOSE TO THOSE TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN CLOUDS HAVING AN IMPACT AND HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE ONLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  68  82  68  79 /  10  20  50  50  70
ANNISTON    83  70  83  69  80 /  10  20  50  50  70
BIRMINGHAM  84  70  83  70  80 /  20  20  50  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  83  70  81 /  50  30  60  50  70
CALERA      85  70  83  69  80 /  30  20  60  50  70
AUBURN      84  67  83  68  81 /  10  20  50  30  60
MONTGOMERY  88  71  86  71  82 /  30  20  50  30  70
TROY        87  69  85  69  82 /  20  20  50  30  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 240442 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
24.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS BASES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH VCTS EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)..FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE STRETCHES FROM THE
EASTERN GULF TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SURPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
SOME CUMULUS WHICH HAS ATTEMPTED TO TOWER ALONG THE SEABREEZE THOUGH
WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE MUCH LOWER OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SEABREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...
WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INCREASING SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REMAIN INTACT OVER ITS CURRENT
POSITION OVERNIGHT BEFORE ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS REGION SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT...AND UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE
SHORT RANGE/HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE OFFSHORE MARINE
ZONES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG NARROW AXIS OF
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK COASTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
ZONES AND ADJACENT MARINE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY UNDERNEATH MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES. A FEW OF THE TYPICAL STRONGER AFTERNOON
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. /21

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE ENERGY FROM A DISORGANIZING
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...PUSHING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD.
THIS ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO AFFECT MORE OF THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE
ADDED UPPER ENERGY PASSING OVER/NEAR THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN GOES
UP FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...CLOSER TO THE PASSING ENERGY.
WITH THE HIGHER POPS COMES A SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP RANGE...MAINLY FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ABUNDANT DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WIND-SHEAR IS
LIMITED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO AM NOT EXPECTING SUPERCELLS.
BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE THE USUAL PULSE SEVERE SCENARIO...WITH STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY STORM THAT DOES BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OVER
THE MISS RIVER VALLEY TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES...LESSENING IT AFFECT
ON THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FA. IT DOES WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND THE MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
WITH THE SLOW DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST...TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD A BIT. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN BEGINS TO MEANDER EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
US ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS SHIFTED TO
OFF THE EAST COAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH WHERE IT IS. THE ENERGY AS IT
IS. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
REMAINS PRETTY MUCH AS IS...IN A WEAKENED...BUT PRESENT STATE. TEMPS
A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.

AVIATION...
23.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A VFR FORECAST ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED CU DECKS WITH BASES OF 5-6 KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD DECKS. FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW
TONIGHT THOUGH BRIEF MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT OVER A FEW LOCATIONS. LOWER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...POSSIBLY MVFR
COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF TAF/S ATTM. /21

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE OFFSHORE AND NEAR LOCAL BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 4-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  70  85  71 /  20  40  30  60  50
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  86  74 /  20  40  30  40  50
DESTIN      74  86  75  85  75 /  20  30  20  50  50
EVERGREEN   66  87  70  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  60
WAYNESBORO  66  86  70  81  68 /  10  40  50  60  60
CAMDEN      66  87  70  88  67 /  10  30  30  40  60
CRESTVIEW   67  90  68  89  70 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 240352 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 925 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
A 5H HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE SERN US BACK INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING ACROSS TX AND MOST OF THE SRN
PLAINS...WILL STAY TO OUR WEST TONIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
WE STILL COULD GET SOME SCT BLOW OFF CI OVERNIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLR AND MILD...THANKS TO LIGHT SE WINDS.
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 60S WITH LITTLE COOLER TEMPS (UPPER
50S) OVER NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
FCST FOR NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...A FEW/SCT BLOWOFF CI WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SUNDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. NEW NAM
DATA SHOWS A CHC OF SOME SCT PCPN MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH VCSH SINCE INSTABILITY DURING THAT TIME FRAME DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT FOR TSRA ATTM.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 240305
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1005 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A BIT WARMER THIS EVENING THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO QUITE A BIT WARMER. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE BETWEEN
THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND THE LOW TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...SOME
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE FELT BE MORNING. THIS EASTERLY WIND IS
ALSO BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING SOME INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THIS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FOR FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.

MODIFIED THE TEMPERATURE TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS THE CLEAR
SKIES WERE ALLOWING A COOL DOWN...BUT JUST STARTED AT A HIGHER
TEMP THAN LAST NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE A
GREAT EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AND KEPT THEM IN THE 50S AND 60S.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LOW CLOUD
DECK IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HINT AT SOME MVFR
CIGS AFTER 10Z FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL AND
MAY HAVE TO ADJUST CIGS WITH NEXT ISSUANCE. SE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 240305
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1005 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A BIT WARMER THIS EVENING THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO QUITE A BIT WARMER. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE BETWEEN
THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND THE LOW TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...SOME
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE FELT BE MORNING. THIS EASTERLY WIND IS
ALSO BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING SOME INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THIS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FOR FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.

MODIFIED THE TEMPERATURE TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS THE CLEAR
SKIES WERE ALLOWING A COOL DOWN...BUT JUST STARTED AT A HIGHER
TEMP THAN LAST NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE A
GREAT EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AND KEPT THEM IN THE 50S AND 60S.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LOW CLOUD
DECK IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HINT AT SOME MVFR
CIGS AFTER 10Z FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL AND
MAY HAVE TO ADJUST CIGS WITH NEXT ISSUANCE. SE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 240305
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1005 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A BIT WARMER THIS EVENING THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO QUITE A BIT WARMER. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE BETWEEN
THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND THE LOW TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...SOME
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE FELT BE MORNING. THIS EASTERLY WIND IS
ALSO BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING SOME INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THIS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FOR FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.

MODIFIED THE TEMPERATURE TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS THE CLEAR
SKIES WERE ALLOWING A COOL DOWN...BUT JUST STARTED AT A HIGHER
TEMP THAN LAST NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE A
GREAT EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AND KEPT THEM IN THE 50S AND 60S.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LOW CLOUD
DECK IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HINT AT SOME MVFR
CIGS AFTER 10Z FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL AND
MAY HAVE TO ADJUST CIGS WITH NEXT ISSUANCE. SE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 240305
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1005 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A BIT WARMER THIS EVENING THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO QUITE A BIT WARMER. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE BETWEEN
THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND THE LOW TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...SOME
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE FELT BE MORNING. THIS EASTERLY WIND IS
ALSO BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING SOME INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THIS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FOR FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.

MODIFIED THE TEMPERATURE TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS THE CLEAR
SKIES WERE ALLOWING A COOL DOWN...BUT JUST STARTED AT A HIGHER
TEMP THAN LAST NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE A
GREAT EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AND KEPT THEM IN THE 50S AND 60S.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LOW CLOUD
DECK IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HINT AT SOME MVFR
CIGS AFTER 10Z FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL AND
MAY HAVE TO ADJUST CIGS WITH NEXT ISSUANCE. SE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 240305
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1005 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A BIT WARMER THIS EVENING THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO QUITE A BIT WARMER. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE BETWEEN
THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND THE LOW TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...SOME
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE FELT BE MORNING. THIS EASTERLY WIND IS
ALSO BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING SOME INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THIS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FOR FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.

MODIFIED THE TEMPERATURE TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS THE CLEAR
SKIES WERE ALLOWING A COOL DOWN...BUT JUST STARTED AT A HIGHER
TEMP THAN LAST NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE A
GREAT EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AND KEPT THEM IN THE 50S AND 60S.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LOW CLOUD
DECK IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HINT AT SOME MVFR
CIGS AFTER 10Z FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL AND
MAY HAVE TO ADJUST CIGS WITH NEXT ISSUANCE. SE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 240305
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1005 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A BIT WARMER THIS EVENING THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO QUITE A BIT WARMER. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE BETWEEN
THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND THE LOW TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...SOME
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE FELT BE MORNING. THIS EASTERLY WIND IS
ALSO BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING SOME INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THIS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FOR FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.

MODIFIED THE TEMPERATURE TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS THE CLEAR
SKIES WERE ALLOWING A COOL DOWN...BUT JUST STARTED AT A HIGHER
TEMP THAN LAST NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE A
GREAT EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AND KEPT THEM IN THE 50S AND 60S.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LOW CLOUD
DECK IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HINT AT SOME MVFR
CIGS AFTER 10Z FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL AND
MAY HAVE TO ADJUST CIGS WITH NEXT ISSUANCE. SE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 240225
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
925 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 5H HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE SERN US BACK INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING ACROSS TX AND MOST OF THE SRN
PLAINS...WILL STAY TO OUR WEST TONIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
WE STILL COULD GET SOME SCT BLOW OFF CI OVERNIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLR AND MILD...THANKS TO LIGHT SE WINDS.
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 60S WITH LITTLE COOLER TEMPS (UPPER
50S) OVER NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
FCST FOR NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR AND FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
SUN WITH GUSTS 18-22KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THEN RETURNS WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS BEING
SCT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS BEING REPORTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER
WEATHER PREVAILED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MID AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SE WINDS OF
5-10 MPH. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON THUR CONTINUED TO BUILD EASTWARD...WITH IT NOW
CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A SE FLOW TO THE AREA...
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF TAPING WARMTH (AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REGION). SYNOPTICALLY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH
HAS RELAXED TROUGHING THAT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
YESTERDAY. OUT WEST...AN UPPER BLOCK REMAINS BUT WAS ON A DECAYING
TREND...AS ITS SOUTHERN LOW MOVED ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER. TO ITS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND/UP TERRAIN.

ONE MORE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
SITUATION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUED A TREND OF A LOWER
LEVEL JET FORMING DURING OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS SUGGESTS LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF I65 FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. POINT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS WERE
SHOWING PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...PEAKING IN THE
1.6 - 1.8 IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT WEEK
WILL PRESENT PRIMARY THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF SLACKENS.
DESPITE THAT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND MON. WENT
CLOSE OR A BIT BELOW FOR THE WETTER PERIODS...TUE-THUR.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 240225
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
925 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 5H HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE SERN US BACK INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING ACROSS TX AND MOST OF THE SRN
PLAINS...WILL STAY TO OUR WEST TONIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
WE STILL COULD GET SOME SCT BLOW OFF CI OVERNIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLR AND MILD...THANKS TO LIGHT SE WINDS.
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 60S WITH LITTLE COOLER TEMPS (UPPER
50S) OVER NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
FCST FOR NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR AND FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
SUN WITH GUSTS 18-22KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THEN RETURNS WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS BEING
SCT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS BEING REPORTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER
WEATHER PREVAILED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MID AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SE WINDS OF
5-10 MPH. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON THUR CONTINUED TO BUILD EASTWARD...WITH IT NOW
CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A SE FLOW TO THE AREA...
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF TAPING WARMTH (AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REGION). SYNOPTICALLY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH
HAS RELAXED TROUGHING THAT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
YESTERDAY. OUT WEST...AN UPPER BLOCK REMAINS BUT WAS ON A DECAYING
TREND...AS ITS SOUTHERN LOW MOVED ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER. TO ITS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND/UP TERRAIN.

ONE MORE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
SITUATION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUED A TREND OF A LOWER
LEVEL JET FORMING DURING OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS SUGGESTS LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF I65 FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. POINT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS WERE
SHOWING PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...PEAKING IN THE
1.6 - 1.8 IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT WEEK
WILL PRESENT PRIMARY THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF SLACKENS.
DESPITE THAT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND MON. WENT
CLOSE OR A BIT BELOW FOR THE WETTER PERIODS...TUE-THUR.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 240225
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
925 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 5H HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE SERN US BACK INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING ACROSS TX AND MOST OF THE SRN
PLAINS...WILL STAY TO OUR WEST TONIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
WE STILL COULD GET SOME SCT BLOW OFF CI OVERNIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLR AND MILD...THANKS TO LIGHT SE WINDS.
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 60S WITH LITTLE COOLER TEMPS (UPPER
50S) OVER NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
FCST FOR NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR AND FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
SUN WITH GUSTS 18-22KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THEN RETURNS WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS BEING
SCT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS BEING REPORTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER
WEATHER PREVAILED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MID AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SE WINDS OF
5-10 MPH. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON THUR CONTINUED TO BUILD EASTWARD...WITH IT NOW
CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A SE FLOW TO THE AREA...
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF TAPING WARMTH (AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REGION). SYNOPTICALLY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH
HAS RELAXED TROUGHING THAT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
YESTERDAY. OUT WEST...AN UPPER BLOCK REMAINS BUT WAS ON A DECAYING
TREND...AS ITS SOUTHERN LOW MOVED ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER. TO ITS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND/UP TERRAIN.

ONE MORE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
SITUATION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUED A TREND OF A LOWER
LEVEL JET FORMING DURING OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS SUGGESTS LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF I65 FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. POINT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS WERE
SHOWING PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...PEAKING IN THE
1.6 - 1.8 IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT WEEK
WILL PRESENT PRIMARY THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF SLACKENS.
DESPITE THAT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND MON. WENT
CLOSE OR A BIT BELOW FOR THE WETTER PERIODS...TUE-THUR.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 240225
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
925 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 5H HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE SERN US BACK INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING ACROSS TX AND MOST OF THE SRN
PLAINS...WILL STAY TO OUR WEST TONIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
WE STILL COULD GET SOME SCT BLOW OFF CI OVERNIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLR AND MILD...THANKS TO LIGHT SE WINDS.
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 60S WITH LITTLE COOLER TEMPS (UPPER
50S) OVER NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
FCST FOR NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR AND FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
SUN WITH GUSTS 18-22KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THEN RETURNS WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS BEING
SCT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS BEING REPORTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER
WEATHER PREVAILED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MID AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SE WINDS OF
5-10 MPH. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON THUR CONTINUED TO BUILD EASTWARD...WITH IT NOW
CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A SE FLOW TO THE AREA...
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF TAPING WARMTH (AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REGION). SYNOPTICALLY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH
HAS RELAXED TROUGHING THAT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
YESTERDAY. OUT WEST...AN UPPER BLOCK REMAINS BUT WAS ON A DECAYING
TREND...AS ITS SOUTHERN LOW MOVED ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER. TO ITS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND/UP TERRAIN.

ONE MORE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
SITUATION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUED A TREND OF A LOWER
LEVEL JET FORMING DURING OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS SUGGESTS LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF I65 FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. POINT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS WERE
SHOWING PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...PEAKING IN THE
1.6 - 1.8 IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT WEEK
WILL PRESENT PRIMARY THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF SLACKENS.
DESPITE THAT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND MON. WENT
CLOSE OR A BIT BELOW FOR THE WETTER PERIODS...TUE-THUR.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KBMX 232336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LOW CLOUD
DECK IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HINT AT SOME MVFR
CIGS AFTER 10Z FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL AND
MAY HAVE TO ADJUST CIGS WITH NEXT ISSUANCE. SE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 232336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LOW CLOUD
DECK IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HINT AT SOME MVFR
CIGS AFTER 10Z FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL AND
MAY HAVE TO ADJUST CIGS WITH NEXT ISSUANCE. SE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 232336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LOW CLOUD
DECK IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HINT AT SOME MVFR
CIGS AFTER 10Z FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL AND
MAY HAVE TO ADJUST CIGS WITH NEXT ISSUANCE. SE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 232336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LOW CLOUD
DECK IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HINT AT SOME MVFR
CIGS AFTER 10Z FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL AND
MAY HAVE TO ADJUST CIGS WITH NEXT ISSUANCE. SE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 232336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LOW CLOUD
DECK IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HINT AT SOME MVFR
CIGS AFTER 10Z FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL AND
MAY HAVE TO ADJUST CIGS WITH NEXT ISSUANCE. SE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 232333 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
24.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LOWER CLOUDS BASES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH VCTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)..FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE STRETCHES FROM THE
EASTERN GULF TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SURPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
SOME CUMULUS WHICH HAS ATTEMPTED TO TOWER ALONG THE SEABREEZE THOUGH
WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE MUCH LOWER OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SEABREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...
WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INCREASING SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REMAIN INTACT OVER ITS CURRENT
POSITION OVERNIGHT BEFORE ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS REGION SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT...AND UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE
SHORT RANGE/HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE OFFSHORE MARINE
ZONES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG NARROW AXIS OF
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK COASTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
ZONES AND ADJACENT MARINE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY UNDERNEATH MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES. A FEW OF THE TYPICAL STRONGER AFTERNOON
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. /21

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE ENERGY FROM A DISORGANIZING
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...PUSHING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD.
THIS ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO AFFECT MORE OF THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE
ADDED UPPER ENERGY PASSING OVER/NEAR THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN GOES
UP FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...CLOSER TO THE PASSING ENERGY.
WITH THE HIGHER POPS COMES A SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP RANGE...MAINLY FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ABUNDANT DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WIND-SHEAR IS
LIMITED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO AM NOT EXPECTING SUPERCELLS.
BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE THE USUAL PULSE SEVERE SCENARIO...WITH STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY STORM THAT DOES BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OVER
THE MISS RIVER VALLEY TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES...LESSENING IT AFFECT
ON THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FA. IT DOES WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND THE MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
WITH THE SLOW DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST...TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD A BIT. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN BEGINS TO MEANDER EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
US ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS SHIFTED TO
OFF THE EAST COAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH WHERE IT IS. THE ENERGY AS IT
IS. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
REMAINS PRETTY MUCH AS IS...IN A WEAKENED...BUT PRESENT STATE. TEMPS
A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.

AVIATION...
23.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A VFR FORECAST ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED CU DECKS WITH BASES OF 5-6 KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD DECKS. FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW
TONIGHT THOUGH BRIEF MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT OVER A FEW LOCATIONS. LOWER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...POSSIBLY MVFR
COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF TAF/S ATTM. /21

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE OFFSHORE AND NEAR LOCAL BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 4-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  70  85  71 /  20  40  30  60  50
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  86  74 /  20  40  30  40  50
DESTIN      74  86  75  85  75 /  20  30  20  50  50
EVERGREEN   66  87  70  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  60
WAYNESBORO  66  86  70  81  68 /  10  40  50  60  60
CAMDEN      66  87  70  88  67 /  10  30  30  40  60
CRESTVIEW   67  90  68  89  70 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 232333 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
24.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LOWER CLOUDS BASES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH VCTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)..FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE STRETCHES FROM THE
EASTERN GULF TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SURPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
SOME CUMULUS WHICH HAS ATTEMPTED TO TOWER ALONG THE SEABREEZE THOUGH
WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE MUCH LOWER OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SEABREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...
WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INCREASING SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REMAIN INTACT OVER ITS CURRENT
POSITION OVERNIGHT BEFORE ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS REGION SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT...AND UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE
SHORT RANGE/HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE OFFSHORE MARINE
ZONES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG NARROW AXIS OF
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK COASTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
ZONES AND ADJACENT MARINE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY UNDERNEATH MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES. A FEW OF THE TYPICAL STRONGER AFTERNOON
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. /21

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE ENERGY FROM A DISORGANIZING
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...PUSHING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD.
THIS ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO AFFECT MORE OF THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE
ADDED UPPER ENERGY PASSING OVER/NEAR THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN GOES
UP FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...CLOSER TO THE PASSING ENERGY.
WITH THE HIGHER POPS COMES A SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP RANGE...MAINLY FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ABUNDANT DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WIND-SHEAR IS
LIMITED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO AM NOT EXPECTING SUPERCELLS.
BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE THE USUAL PULSE SEVERE SCENARIO...WITH STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY STORM THAT DOES BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OVER
THE MISS RIVER VALLEY TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES...LESSENING IT AFFECT
ON THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FA. IT DOES WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND THE MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
WITH THE SLOW DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST...TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD A BIT. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN BEGINS TO MEANDER EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
US ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS SHIFTED TO
OFF THE EAST COAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH WHERE IT IS. THE ENERGY AS IT
IS. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
REMAINS PRETTY MUCH AS IS...IN A WEAKENED...BUT PRESENT STATE. TEMPS
A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.

AVIATION...
23.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A VFR FORECAST ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED CU DECKS WITH BASES OF 5-6 KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD DECKS. FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW
TONIGHT THOUGH BRIEF MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT OVER A FEW LOCATIONS. LOWER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...POSSIBLY MVFR
COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF TAF/S ATTM. /21

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE OFFSHORE AND NEAR LOCAL BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 4-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  70  85  71 /  20  40  30  60  50
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  86  74 /  20  40  30  40  50
DESTIN      74  86  75  85  75 /  20  30  20  50  50
EVERGREEN   66  87  70  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  60
WAYNESBORO  66  86  70  81  68 /  10  40  50  60  60
CAMDEN      66  87  70  88  67 /  10  30  30  40  60
CRESTVIEW   67  90  68  89  70 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 232333 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
24.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LOWER CLOUDS BASES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH VCTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)..FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE STRETCHES FROM THE
EASTERN GULF TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SURPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
SOME CUMULUS WHICH HAS ATTEMPTED TO TOWER ALONG THE SEABREEZE THOUGH
WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE MUCH LOWER OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SEABREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...
WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INCREASING SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REMAIN INTACT OVER ITS CURRENT
POSITION OVERNIGHT BEFORE ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS REGION SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT...AND UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE
SHORT RANGE/HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE OFFSHORE MARINE
ZONES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG NARROW AXIS OF
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK COASTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
ZONES AND ADJACENT MARINE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY UNDERNEATH MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES. A FEW OF THE TYPICAL STRONGER AFTERNOON
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. /21

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE ENERGY FROM A DISORGANIZING
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...PUSHING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD.
THIS ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO AFFECT MORE OF THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE
ADDED UPPER ENERGY PASSING OVER/NEAR THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN GOES
UP FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...CLOSER TO THE PASSING ENERGY.
WITH THE HIGHER POPS COMES A SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP RANGE...MAINLY FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ABUNDANT DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WIND-SHEAR IS
LIMITED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO AM NOT EXPECTING SUPERCELLS.
BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE THE USUAL PULSE SEVERE SCENARIO...WITH STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY STORM THAT DOES BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OVER
THE MISS RIVER VALLEY TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES...LESSENING IT AFFECT
ON THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FA. IT DOES WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND THE MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
WITH THE SLOW DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST...TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD A BIT. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN BEGINS TO MEANDER EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
US ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS SHIFTED TO
OFF THE EAST COAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH WHERE IT IS. THE ENERGY AS IT
IS. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
REMAINS PRETTY MUCH AS IS...IN A WEAKENED...BUT PRESENT STATE. TEMPS
A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.

AVIATION...
23.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A VFR FORECAST ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED CU DECKS WITH BASES OF 5-6 KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD DECKS. FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW
TONIGHT THOUGH BRIEF MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT OVER A FEW LOCATIONS. LOWER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...POSSIBLY MVFR
COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF TAF/S ATTM. /21

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE OFFSHORE AND NEAR LOCAL BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 4-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  70  85  71 /  20  40  30  60  50
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  86  74 /  20  40  30  40  50
DESTIN      74  86  75  85  75 /  20  30  20  50  50
EVERGREEN   66  87  70  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  60
WAYNESBORO  66  86  70  81  68 /  10  40  50  60  60
CAMDEN      66  87  70  88  67 /  10  30  30  40  60
CRESTVIEW   67  90  68  89  70 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 232317
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER
WEATHER PREVAILED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MID AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SE WINDS OF
5-10 MPH. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON THUR CONTINUED TO BUILD EASTWARD...WITH IT NOW
CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A SE FLOW TO THE AREA...
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF TAPING WARMTH (AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REGION). SYNOPTICALLY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH
HAS RELAXED TROUGHING THAT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
YESTERDAY. OUT WEST...AN UPPER BLOCK REMAINS BUT WAS ON A DECAYING
TREND...AS ITS SOUTHERN LOW MOVED ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER. TO ITS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND/UP TERRAIN.

ONE MORE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
SITUATION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUED A TREND OF A LOWER
LEVEL JET FORMING DURING OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS SUGGESTS LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF I65 FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. POINT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS WERE
SHOWING PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...PEAKING IN THE
1.6 - 1.8 IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT WEEK
WILL PRESENT PRIMARY THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF SLACKENS.
DESPITE THAT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND MON. WENT
CLOSE OR A BIT BELOW FOR THE WETTER PERIODS...TUE-THUR.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR AND FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
SUN WITH GUSTS 18-22KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THEN RETURNS WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS BEING
SCT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS BEING REPORTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 232317
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER
WEATHER PREVAILED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MID AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SE WINDS OF
5-10 MPH. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON THUR CONTINUED TO BUILD EASTWARD...WITH IT NOW
CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A SE FLOW TO THE AREA...
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF TAPING WARMTH (AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REGION). SYNOPTICALLY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH
HAS RELAXED TROUGHING THAT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
YESTERDAY. OUT WEST...AN UPPER BLOCK REMAINS BUT WAS ON A DECAYING
TREND...AS ITS SOUTHERN LOW MOVED ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER. TO ITS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND/UP TERRAIN.

ONE MORE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
SITUATION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUED A TREND OF A LOWER
LEVEL JET FORMING DURING OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS SUGGESTS LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF I65 FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. POINT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS WERE
SHOWING PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...PEAKING IN THE
1.6 - 1.8 IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT WEEK
WILL PRESENT PRIMARY THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF SLACKENS.
DESPITE THAT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND MON. WENT
CLOSE OR A BIT BELOW FOR THE WETTER PERIODS...TUE-THUR.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR AND FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
SUN WITH GUSTS 18-22KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THEN RETURNS WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS BEING
SCT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS BEING REPORTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KMOB 232101
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)..FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE STRETCHES FROM THE
EASTERN GULF TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SURPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
SOME CUMULUS WHICH HAS ATTEMPTED TO TOWER ALONG THE SEABREEZE THOUGH
WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE MUCH LOWER OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SEABREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...
WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INCREASING SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REMAIN INTACT OVER ITS CURRENT
POSITION OVERNIGHT BEFORE ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS REGION SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT...AND UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE
SHORT RANGE/HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE OFFSHORE MARINE
ZONES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG NARROW AXIS OF
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK COASTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
ZONES AND ADJACENT MARINE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY UNDERNEATH MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES. A FEW OF THE TYPICAL STRONGER AFTERNOON
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. /21

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE ENERGY FROM A DISORGANIZING
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...PUSHING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD.
THIS ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO AFFECT MORE OF THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE
ADDED UPPER ENERGY PASSING OVER/NEAR THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN GOES
UP FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...CLOSER TO THE PASSING ENERGY.
WITH THE HIGHER POPS COMES A SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP RANGE...MAINLY FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ABUNDANT DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WIND-SHEAR IS
LIMITED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO AM NOT EXPECTING SUPERCELLS.
BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE THE USUAL PULSE SEVERE SCENARIO...WITH STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY STORM THAT DOES BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OVER
THE MISS RIVER VALLEY TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES...LESSENING IT AFFECT
ON THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FA. IT DOES WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND THE MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
WITH THE SLOW DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST...TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD A BIT. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN BEGINS TO MEANDER EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
US ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS SHIFTED TO
OFF THE EAST COAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH WHERE IT IS. THE ENERGY AS IT
IS. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
REMAINS PRETTY MUCH AS IS...IN A WEAKENED...BUT PRESENT STATE. TEMPS
A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION...
23.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A VFR FORECAST ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED CU DECKS WITH BASES OF 5-6 KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD DECKS. FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW
TONIGHT THOUGH BRIEF MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT OVER A FEW LOCATIONS. LOWER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...POSSIBLY MVFR
COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF TAF/S ATTM. /21

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE OFFSHORE AND NEAR LOCAL BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 4-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /21


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  70  85  71 /  20  40  30  60  50
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  86  74 /  20  40  30  40  50
DESTIN      74  86  75  85  75 /  20  30  20  50  50
EVERGREEN   66  87  70  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  60
WAYNESBORO  66  86  70  81  68 /  10  40  50  60  60
CAMDEN      66  87  70  88  67 /  10  30  30  40  60
CRESTVIEW   67  90  68  89  70 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 232101
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)..FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE STRETCHES FROM THE
EASTERN GULF TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SURPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
SOME CUMULUS WHICH HAS ATTEMPTED TO TOWER ALONG THE SEABREEZE THOUGH
WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE MUCH LOWER OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SEABREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...
WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INCREASING SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REMAIN INTACT OVER ITS CURRENT
POSITION OVERNIGHT BEFORE ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS REGION SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT...AND UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE
SHORT RANGE/HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE OFFSHORE MARINE
ZONES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG NARROW AXIS OF
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK COASTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
ZONES AND ADJACENT MARINE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY UNDERNEATH MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES. A FEW OF THE TYPICAL STRONGER AFTERNOON
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. /21

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE ENERGY FROM A DISORGANIZING
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...PUSHING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD.
THIS ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO AFFECT MORE OF THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE
ADDED UPPER ENERGY PASSING OVER/NEAR THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN GOES
UP FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...CLOSER TO THE PASSING ENERGY.
WITH THE HIGHER POPS COMES A SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP RANGE...MAINLY FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ABUNDANT DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WIND-SHEAR IS
LIMITED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO AM NOT EXPECTING SUPERCELLS.
BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE THE USUAL PULSE SEVERE SCENARIO...WITH STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY STORM THAT DOES BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OVER
THE MISS RIVER VALLEY TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES...LESSENING IT AFFECT
ON THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FA. IT DOES WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND THE MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
WITH THE SLOW DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST...TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD A BIT. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN BEGINS TO MEANDER EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
US ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS SHIFTED TO
OFF THE EAST COAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH WHERE IT IS. THE ENERGY AS IT
IS. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
REMAINS PRETTY MUCH AS IS...IN A WEAKENED...BUT PRESENT STATE. TEMPS
A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION...
23.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A VFR FORECAST ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED CU DECKS WITH BASES OF 5-6 KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD DECKS. FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW
TONIGHT THOUGH BRIEF MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT OVER A FEW LOCATIONS. LOWER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...POSSIBLY MVFR
COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF TAF/S ATTM. /21

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE OFFSHORE AND NEAR LOCAL BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 4-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /21


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  70  85  71 /  20  40  30  60  50
PENSACOLA   73  87  73  86  74 /  20  40  30  40  50
DESTIN      74  86  75  85  75 /  20  30  20  50  50
EVERGREEN   66  87  70  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  60
WAYNESBORO  66  86  70  81  68 /  10  40  50  60  60
CAMDEN      66  87  70  88  67 /  10  30  30  40  60
CRESTVIEW   67  90  68  89  70 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 232023
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER
WEATHER PREVAILED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MID AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SE WINDS OF
5-10 MPH. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON THUR CONTINUED TO BUILD EASTWARD...WITH IT NOW
CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A SE FLOW TO THE AREA...
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF TAPING WARMTH (AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REGION). SYNOPTICALLY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH
HAS RELAXED TROUGHING THAT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
YESTERDAY. OUT WEST...AN UPPER BLOCK REMAINS BUT WAS ON A DECAYING
TREND...AS ITS SOUTHERN LOW MOVED ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER. TO ITS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND/UP TERRAIN.

ONE MORE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
SITUATION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUED A TREND OF A LOWER
LEVEL JET FORMING DURING OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS SUGGESTS LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF I65 FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. POINT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS WERE
SHOWING PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...PEAKING IN THE
1.6 - 1.8 IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT WEEK
WILL PRESENT PRIMARY THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF SLACKENS.
DESPITE THAT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND MON. WENT
CLOSE OR A BIT BELOW FOR THE WETTER PERIODS...TUE-THUR.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CU REMAINING. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST NEARS, WITH
A SCT LOW DECK OF CLOUDS ~3KFT ARRIVING BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SE
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS EXPECTED. A FEW
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN NW
AL, BUT DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    62  85  68  82 /   0  10  20  50
SHOALS        62  85  69  79 /   0  20  30  70
VINEMONT      61  84  66  80 /   0  20  20  50
FAYETTEVILLE  60  83  67  79 /   0  10  20  30
ALBERTVILLE   60  82  67  80 /   0  10  20  30
FORT PAYNE    58  85  66  81 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 232023
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER
WEATHER PREVAILED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MID AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SE WINDS OF
5-10 MPH. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON THUR CONTINUED TO BUILD EASTWARD...WITH IT NOW
CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A SE FLOW TO THE AREA...
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF TAPING WARMTH (AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REGION). SYNOPTICALLY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH
HAS RELAXED TROUGHING THAT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
YESTERDAY. OUT WEST...AN UPPER BLOCK REMAINS BUT WAS ON A DECAYING
TREND...AS ITS SOUTHERN LOW MOVED ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER. TO ITS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND/UP TERRAIN.

ONE MORE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
SITUATION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUED A TREND OF A LOWER
LEVEL JET FORMING DURING OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS SUGGESTS LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF I65 FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. POINT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS WERE
SHOWING PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...PEAKING IN THE
1.6 - 1.8 IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT WEEK
WILL PRESENT PRIMARY THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF SLACKENS.
DESPITE THAT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND MON. WENT
CLOSE OR A BIT BELOW FOR THE WETTER PERIODS...TUE-THUR.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CU REMAINING. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST NEARS, WITH
A SCT LOW DECK OF CLOUDS ~3KFT ARRIVING BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SE
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS EXPECTED. A FEW
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN NW
AL, BUT DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    62  85  68  82 /   0  10  20  50
SHOALS        62  85  69  79 /   0  20  30  70
VINEMONT      61  84  66  80 /   0  20  20  50
FAYETTEVILLE  60  83  67  79 /   0  10  20  30
ALBERTVILLE   60  82  67  80 /   0  10  20  30
FORT PAYNE    58  85  66  81 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 232023
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER
WEATHER PREVAILED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MID AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SE WINDS OF
5-10 MPH. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON THUR CONTINUED TO BUILD EASTWARD...WITH IT NOW
CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A SE FLOW TO THE AREA...
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF TAPING WARMTH (AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REGION). SYNOPTICALLY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH
HAS RELAXED TROUGHING THAT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
YESTERDAY. OUT WEST...AN UPPER BLOCK REMAINS BUT WAS ON A DECAYING
TREND...AS ITS SOUTHERN LOW MOVED ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER. TO ITS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND/UP TERRAIN.

ONE MORE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
SITUATION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUED A TREND OF A LOWER
LEVEL JET FORMING DURING OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS SUGGESTS LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF I65 FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. POINT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS WERE
SHOWING PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...PEAKING IN THE
1.6 - 1.8 IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT WEEK
WILL PRESENT PRIMARY THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF SLACKENS.
DESPITE THAT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND MON. WENT
CLOSE OR A BIT BELOW FOR THE WETTER PERIODS...TUE-THUR.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CU REMAINING. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST NEARS, WITH
A SCT LOW DECK OF CLOUDS ~3KFT ARRIVING BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SE
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS EXPECTED. A FEW
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN NW
AL, BUT DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    62  85  68  82 /   0  10  20  50
SHOALS        62  85  69  79 /   0  20  30  70
VINEMONT      61  84  66  80 /   0  20  20  50
FAYETTEVILLE  60  83  67  79 /   0  10  20  30
ALBERTVILLE   60  82  67  80 /   0  10  20  30
FORT PAYNE    58  85  66  81 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 232023
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER
WEATHER PREVAILED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MID AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SE WINDS OF
5-10 MPH. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON THUR CONTINUED TO BUILD EASTWARD...WITH IT NOW
CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A SE FLOW TO THE AREA...
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF TAPING WARMTH (AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REGION). SYNOPTICALLY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH
HAS RELAXED TROUGHING THAT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
YESTERDAY. OUT WEST...AN UPPER BLOCK REMAINS BUT WAS ON A DECAYING
TREND...AS ITS SOUTHERN LOW MOVED ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER. TO ITS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND/UP TERRAIN.

ONE MORE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
SITUATION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUED A TREND OF A LOWER
LEVEL JET FORMING DURING OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS SUGGESTS LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF I65 FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. POINT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS WERE
SHOWING PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...PEAKING IN THE
1.6 - 1.8 IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT WEEK
WILL PRESENT PRIMARY THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF SLACKENS.
DESPITE THAT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND MON. WENT
CLOSE OR A BIT BELOW FOR THE WETTER PERIODS...TUE-THUR.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CU REMAINING. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST NEARS, WITH
A SCT LOW DECK OF CLOUDS ~3KFT ARRIVING BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SE
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS EXPECTED. A FEW
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN NW
AL, BUT DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    62  85  68  82 /   0  10  20  50
SHOALS        62  85  69  79 /   0  20  30  70
VINEMONT      61  84  66  80 /   0  20  20  50
FAYETTEVILLE  60  83  67  79 /   0  10  20  30
ALBERTVILLE   60  82  67  80 /   0  10  20  30
FORT PAYNE    58  85  66  81 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 232023
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER
WEATHER PREVAILED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MID AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SE WINDS OF
5-10 MPH. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON THUR CONTINUED TO BUILD EASTWARD...WITH IT NOW
CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A SE FLOW TO THE AREA...
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF TAPING WARMTH (AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REGION). SYNOPTICALLY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH
HAS RELAXED TROUGHING THAT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
YESTERDAY. OUT WEST...AN UPPER BLOCK REMAINS BUT WAS ON A DECAYING
TREND...AS ITS SOUTHERN LOW MOVED ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER. TO ITS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND/UP TERRAIN.

ONE MORE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
SITUATION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUED A TREND OF A LOWER
LEVEL JET FORMING DURING OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS SUGGESTS LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF I65 FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. POINT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS WERE
SHOWING PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...PEAKING IN THE
1.6 - 1.8 IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT WEEK
WILL PRESENT PRIMARY THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF SLACKENS.
DESPITE THAT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND MON. WENT
CLOSE OR A BIT BELOW FOR THE WETTER PERIODS...TUE-THUR.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CU REMAINING. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST NEARS, WITH
A SCT LOW DECK OF CLOUDS ~3KFT ARRIVING BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SE
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS EXPECTED. A FEW
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN NW
AL, BUT DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    62  85  68  82 /   0  10  20  50
SHOALS        62  85  69  79 /   0  20  30  70
VINEMONT      61  84  66  80 /   0  20  20  50
FAYETTEVILLE  60  83  67  79 /   0  10  20  30
ALBERTVILLE   60  82  67  80 /   0  10  20  30
FORT PAYNE    58  85  66  81 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 232023
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER
WEATHER PREVAILED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MID AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SE WINDS OF
5-10 MPH. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON THUR CONTINUED TO BUILD EASTWARD...WITH IT NOW
CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A SE FLOW TO THE AREA...
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF TAPING WARMTH (AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REGION). SYNOPTICALLY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH
HAS RELAXED TROUGHING THAT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
YESTERDAY. OUT WEST...AN UPPER BLOCK REMAINS BUT WAS ON A DECAYING
TREND...AS ITS SOUTHERN LOW MOVED ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER. TO ITS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND/UP TERRAIN.

ONE MORE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
SITUATION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUED A TREND OF A LOWER
LEVEL JET FORMING DURING OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS SUGGESTS LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF I65 FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. POINT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS WERE
SHOWING PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...PEAKING IN THE
1.6 - 1.8 IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT WEEK
WILL PRESENT PRIMARY THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF SLACKENS.
DESPITE THAT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND MON. WENT
CLOSE OR A BIT BELOW FOR THE WETTER PERIODS...TUE-THUR.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CU REMAINING. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST NEARS, WITH
A SCT LOW DECK OF CLOUDS ~3KFT ARRIVING BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SE
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS EXPECTED. A FEW
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN NW
AL, BUT DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    62  85  68  82 /   0  10  20  50
SHOALS        62  85  69  79 /   0  20  30  70
VINEMONT      61  84  66  80 /   0  20  20  50
FAYETTEVILLE  60  83  67  79 /   0  10  20  30
ALBERTVILLE   60  82  67  80 /   0  10  20  30
FORT PAYNE    58  85  66  81 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 231948
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
248 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INCLUDE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 231948
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
248 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INCLUDE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 231948
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
248 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INCLUDE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 231948
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
248 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEE LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK INTO FULL FORCE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-50 POP
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURES. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE WITH 50-70 POP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30 KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING SATURATED WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR
MID TO LATE MAY KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE DRY START TO THE MONTH
OF MAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...HAVE CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING POPS BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH 20-40% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INCLUDE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  68  82  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
ANNISTON    62  83  70  83  69 /   0  10  20  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  70  83  70 /   0  20  20  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  70  83  70 /   0  50  30  60  50
CALERA      65  85  70  83  69 /   0  30  20  60  50
AUBURN      62  84  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
TROY        66  87  69  85  69 /   0  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 231738 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER COULD SEE SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT IS VERY DRY (850 MB TO 700 MB). SOME MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE FORECASTING RH VALUES AT THESE LEVELS TO REACH 80 TO 95 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM ANALYSIS AND
EXPECTED ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ERODE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS...SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE
SHOALS...TO REACH 86 OR 87 DEGREES. MOST LOCATIONS THOUGH SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DUE TO LAYER OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AT
850 MB...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO
AFTERNOON MIXING.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CU REMAINING. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST NEARS, WITH
A SCT LOW DECK OF CLOUDS ~3KFT ARRIVING BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SE
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS EXPECTED. A FEW
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN NW
AL, BUT DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 231738 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER COULD SEE SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT IS VERY DRY (850 MB TO 700 MB). SOME MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE FORECASTING RH VALUES AT THESE LEVELS TO REACH 80 TO 95 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM ANALYSIS AND
EXPECTED ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ERODE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS...SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE
SHOALS...TO REACH 86 OR 87 DEGREES. MOST LOCATIONS THOUGH SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DUE TO LAYER OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AT
850 MB...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO
AFTERNOON MIXING.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CU REMAINING. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST NEARS, WITH
A SCT LOW DECK OF CLOUDS ~3KFT ARRIVING BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SE
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS EXPECTED. A FEW
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN NW
AL, BUT DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 231738 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER COULD SEE SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT IS VERY DRY (850 MB TO 700 MB). SOME MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE FORECASTING RH VALUES AT THESE LEVELS TO REACH 80 TO 95 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM ANALYSIS AND
EXPECTED ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ERODE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS...SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE
SHOALS...TO REACH 86 OR 87 DEGREES. MOST LOCATIONS THOUGH SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DUE TO LAYER OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AT
850 MB...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO
AFTERNOON MIXING.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CU REMAINING. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST NEARS, WITH
A SCT LOW DECK OF CLOUDS ~3KFT ARRIVING BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SE
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS EXPECTED. A FEW
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN NW
AL, BUT DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 231738 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER COULD SEE SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT IS VERY DRY (850 MB TO 700 MB). SOME MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE FORECASTING RH VALUES AT THESE LEVELS TO REACH 80 TO 95 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM ANALYSIS AND
EXPECTED ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ERODE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS...SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE
SHOALS...TO REACH 86 OR 87 DEGREES. MOST LOCATIONS THOUGH SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DUE TO LAYER OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AT
850 MB...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO
AFTERNOON MIXING.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CU REMAINING. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST NEARS, WITH
A SCT LOW DECK OF CLOUDS ~3KFT ARRIVING BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SE
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS EXPECTED. A FEW
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN NW
AL, BUT DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KBMX 231715
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...DEWPOINTS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMING
QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF INSOLATION.
THEREFORE...INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S. NO OTHER
MAJOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INCLUDE.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 231715
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...DEWPOINTS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMING
QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF INSOLATION.
THEREFORE...INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S. NO OTHER
MAJOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INCLUDE.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 231715
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...DEWPOINTS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMING
QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF INSOLATION.
THEREFORE...INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S. NO OTHER
MAJOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INCLUDE.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 231715
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...DEWPOINTS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMING
QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF INSOLATION.
THEREFORE...INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S. NO OTHER
MAJOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INCLUDE.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 231624 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1124 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALSO EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL PENINSULA. LACK OF
FORCING AND A SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. OVERALL COVERAGE IF ANY WOULD BE VERY LIMITED...AND WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK...THOUGH WE INCREASED TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
/21

&&

.AVIATION...
23.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A VFR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...MOS IS CONTINUING WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN INLAND. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES CAPE STARTS
BELOW 400 J/KG AND STARTS CREEPING TO ABOVE 1500 LATER TODAY ALONG
THE COAST. LI`S BECOME SUB-ZERO SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALONG INTERSTATE
10 TO MOBILE TO BAY MINETTE AND NORTHEAST TO ANDALUSIA BY 18Z. THEY
FALL TO ALMOST -5 JUST 20 MILES OFF DESTIN AND ABOUT -5.5 OUT 60
MILES OFF DESTIN. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE REGION IS ABOUT -1 TO -2 SO IT
DOES APPEAR THIS FRONT THAT BROUGHT US A COOL DAY FRIDAY IS LOSING
ITS STRUCTURE. ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB IS INDICATED WEAK BY A FLAT
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF ABOUT 35 DEGREES NORTH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF NORTH OF THE
COASTLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK POST FRONTAL LAYER
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 500 AND 550 MB AS WELL AS WEAK DYNAMICS...AND THIS
MAY BE WHAT IS TELLING MOS TO KEEP POPS LOW. POPS FROM THE EURO ARE
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO SUCH
INVERSION OFFSHORE. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...THE HRRR BRINGS RAIN IN
OFFSHORE WHICH MORE OR LESS HONORS THE OTHER INDICATORS OF CAPE AND
LI AND WHATNOT...AND WITH NCAR ENSEMBLES ALSO DOWNPLAYING
CONVECTION...WE ARE GOING TO GO FOR ISOLATED AND THAT MAINLY
OFFSHORE. WE WILL KEEP CONVECTION PRETTY MUCH NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 80S FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS INLAND IN THE UPPER 60S...AND LOW 70S FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A DEEP HIGH LEVEL TROF POSITIONED OVER
THE WESTERN US AND A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM
FLORIDA INTO THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BETWEEN
THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE
EVOLVING HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST TAPS AND
PULLS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WELL UP TO ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MODIFY TO
AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON AVERAGE WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
MAY 24TH. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW SUNDAY MORNING...FORECASTERS EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE COAST...WHICH SPREADS INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
LIFT OFFERED BY THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY LOOKS TO AID IN COVERAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG CONTAINING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
OCCURRENCE.

WELL ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. THE
INCREASE IN WINDS...ELEVATED SWELL...BREAKER ACTION AND SPRING TIDAL
CYCLES...RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG OUR SHORES
SUNDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
69 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER/MID 70S COASTAL ZONES. /10

LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY TO FRIDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE TO
THE EAST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH UPPER
TROF AXIS EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROF MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE CLOSE
OF THE WEEK. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED ON THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES PRODUCING BRIEF
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT...NOW IN THE MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 70S COASTAL ZONES. /10

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING LIGHT
EAST WINDS WHICH WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 6 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY.
BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CHOPPY. THE SWAN CAME OUT
CLOSE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WNA AND GWW WAVE MODELS AS WELL AS WITH
THE BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  70  86  72  84 /  10  20  40  30  60
PENSACOLA   87  73  84  74  84 /  10  20  30  30  60
DESTIN      86  74  85  75  84 /  10  20  30  30  60
EVERGREEN   87  67  89  69  86 /  10  10  30  20  50
WAYNESBORO  87  66  86  69  83 /  05  10  40  40  60
CAMDEN      87  68  88  69  84 /  05  10  30  20  60
CRESTVIEW   89  66  90  69  87 /  10  20  30  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 231624 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1124 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALSO EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL PENINSULA. LACK OF
FORCING AND A SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. OVERALL COVERAGE IF ANY WOULD BE VERY LIMITED...AND WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK...THOUGH WE INCREASED TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
/21

&&

.AVIATION...
23.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A VFR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...MOS IS CONTINUING WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN INLAND. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES CAPE STARTS
BELOW 400 J/KG AND STARTS CREEPING TO ABOVE 1500 LATER TODAY ALONG
THE COAST. LI`S BECOME SUB-ZERO SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALONG INTERSTATE
10 TO MOBILE TO BAY MINETTE AND NORTHEAST TO ANDALUSIA BY 18Z. THEY
FALL TO ALMOST -5 JUST 20 MILES OFF DESTIN AND ABOUT -5.5 OUT 60
MILES OFF DESTIN. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE REGION IS ABOUT -1 TO -2 SO IT
DOES APPEAR THIS FRONT THAT BROUGHT US A COOL DAY FRIDAY IS LOSING
ITS STRUCTURE. ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB IS INDICATED WEAK BY A FLAT
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF ABOUT 35 DEGREES NORTH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF NORTH OF THE
COASTLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK POST FRONTAL LAYER
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 500 AND 550 MB AS WELL AS WEAK DYNAMICS...AND THIS
MAY BE WHAT IS TELLING MOS TO KEEP POPS LOW. POPS FROM THE EURO ARE
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO SUCH
INVERSION OFFSHORE. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...THE HRRR BRINGS RAIN IN
OFFSHORE WHICH MORE OR LESS HONORS THE OTHER INDICATORS OF CAPE AND
LI AND WHATNOT...AND WITH NCAR ENSEMBLES ALSO DOWNPLAYING
CONVECTION...WE ARE GOING TO GO FOR ISOLATED AND THAT MAINLY
OFFSHORE. WE WILL KEEP CONVECTION PRETTY MUCH NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 80S FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS INLAND IN THE UPPER 60S...AND LOW 70S FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A DEEP HIGH LEVEL TROF POSITIONED OVER
THE WESTERN US AND A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM
FLORIDA INTO THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BETWEEN
THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE
EVOLVING HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST TAPS AND
PULLS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WELL UP TO ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MODIFY TO
AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON AVERAGE WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
MAY 24TH. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW SUNDAY MORNING...FORECASTERS EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE COAST...WHICH SPREADS INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
LIFT OFFERED BY THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY LOOKS TO AID IN COVERAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG CONTAINING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
OCCURRENCE.

WELL ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. THE
INCREASE IN WINDS...ELEVATED SWELL...BREAKER ACTION AND SPRING TIDAL
CYCLES...RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG OUR SHORES
SUNDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
69 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER/MID 70S COASTAL ZONES. /10

LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY TO FRIDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE TO
THE EAST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH UPPER
TROF AXIS EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROF MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE CLOSE
OF THE WEEK. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED ON THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES PRODUCING BRIEF
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT...NOW IN THE MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 70S COASTAL ZONES. /10

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING LIGHT
EAST WINDS WHICH WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 6 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY.
BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CHOPPY. THE SWAN CAME OUT
CLOSE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WNA AND GWW WAVE MODELS AS WELL AS WITH
THE BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  70  86  72  84 /  10  20  40  30  60
PENSACOLA   87  73  84  74  84 /  10  20  30  30  60
DESTIN      86  74  85  75  84 /  10  20  30  30  60
EVERGREEN   87  67  89  69  86 /  10  10  30  20  50
WAYNESBORO  87  66  86  69  83 /  05  10  40  40  60
CAMDEN      87  68  88  69  84 /  05  10  30  20  60
CRESTVIEW   89  66  90  69  87 /  10  20  30  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 231624 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1124 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALSO EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL PENINSULA. LACK OF
FORCING AND A SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. OVERALL COVERAGE IF ANY WOULD BE VERY LIMITED...AND WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK...THOUGH WE INCREASED TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
/21

&&

.AVIATION...
23.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A VFR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...MOS IS CONTINUING WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN INLAND. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES CAPE STARTS
BELOW 400 J/KG AND STARTS CREEPING TO ABOVE 1500 LATER TODAY ALONG
THE COAST. LI`S BECOME SUB-ZERO SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALONG INTERSTATE
10 TO MOBILE TO BAY MINETTE AND NORTHEAST TO ANDALUSIA BY 18Z. THEY
FALL TO ALMOST -5 JUST 20 MILES OFF DESTIN AND ABOUT -5.5 OUT 60
MILES OFF DESTIN. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE REGION IS ABOUT -1 TO -2 SO IT
DOES APPEAR THIS FRONT THAT BROUGHT US A COOL DAY FRIDAY IS LOSING
ITS STRUCTURE. ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB IS INDICATED WEAK BY A FLAT
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF ABOUT 35 DEGREES NORTH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF NORTH OF THE
COASTLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK POST FRONTAL LAYER
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 500 AND 550 MB AS WELL AS WEAK DYNAMICS...AND THIS
MAY BE WHAT IS TELLING MOS TO KEEP POPS LOW. POPS FROM THE EURO ARE
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO SUCH
INVERSION OFFSHORE. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...THE HRRR BRINGS RAIN IN
OFFSHORE WHICH MORE OR LESS HONORS THE OTHER INDICATORS OF CAPE AND
LI AND WHATNOT...AND WITH NCAR ENSEMBLES ALSO DOWNPLAYING
CONVECTION...WE ARE GOING TO GO FOR ISOLATED AND THAT MAINLY
OFFSHORE. WE WILL KEEP CONVECTION PRETTY MUCH NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 80S FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS INLAND IN THE UPPER 60S...AND LOW 70S FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A DEEP HIGH LEVEL TROF POSITIONED OVER
THE WESTERN US AND A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM
FLORIDA INTO THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BETWEEN
THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE
EVOLVING HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST TAPS AND
PULLS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WELL UP TO ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MODIFY TO
AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON AVERAGE WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
MAY 24TH. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW SUNDAY MORNING...FORECASTERS EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE COAST...WHICH SPREADS INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
LIFT OFFERED BY THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY LOOKS TO AID IN COVERAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG CONTAINING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
OCCURRENCE.

WELL ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. THE
INCREASE IN WINDS...ELEVATED SWELL...BREAKER ACTION AND SPRING TIDAL
CYCLES...RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG OUR SHORES
SUNDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
69 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER/MID 70S COASTAL ZONES. /10

LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY TO FRIDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE TO
THE EAST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH UPPER
TROF AXIS EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROF MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE CLOSE
OF THE WEEK. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED ON THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES PRODUCING BRIEF
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT...NOW IN THE MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 70S COASTAL ZONES. /10

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING LIGHT
EAST WINDS WHICH WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 6 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY.
BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CHOPPY. THE SWAN CAME OUT
CLOSE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WNA AND GWW WAVE MODELS AS WELL AS WITH
THE BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  70  86  72  84 /  10  20  40  30  60
PENSACOLA   87  73  84  74  84 /  10  20  30  30  60
DESTIN      86  74  85  75  84 /  10  20  30  30  60
EVERGREEN   87  67  89  69  86 /  10  10  30  20  50
WAYNESBORO  87  66  86  69  83 /  05  10  40  40  60
CAMDEN      87  68  88  69  84 /  05  10  30  20  60
CRESTVIEW   89  66  90  69  87 /  10  20  30  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMOB 231624 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1124 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALSO EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL PENINSULA. LACK OF
FORCING AND A SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. OVERALL COVERAGE IF ANY WOULD BE VERY LIMITED...AND WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK...THOUGH WE INCREASED TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
/21

&&

.AVIATION...
23.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A VFR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...MOS IS CONTINUING WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN INLAND. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES CAPE STARTS
BELOW 400 J/KG AND STARTS CREEPING TO ABOVE 1500 LATER TODAY ALONG
THE COAST. LI`S BECOME SUB-ZERO SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALONG INTERSTATE
10 TO MOBILE TO BAY MINETTE AND NORTHEAST TO ANDALUSIA BY 18Z. THEY
FALL TO ALMOST -5 JUST 20 MILES OFF DESTIN AND ABOUT -5.5 OUT 60
MILES OFF DESTIN. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE REGION IS ABOUT -1 TO -2 SO IT
DOES APPEAR THIS FRONT THAT BROUGHT US A COOL DAY FRIDAY IS LOSING
ITS STRUCTURE. ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB IS INDICATED WEAK BY A FLAT
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF ABOUT 35 DEGREES NORTH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF NORTH OF THE
COASTLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK POST FRONTAL LAYER
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 500 AND 550 MB AS WELL AS WEAK DYNAMICS...AND THIS
MAY BE WHAT IS TELLING MOS TO KEEP POPS LOW. POPS FROM THE EURO ARE
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO SUCH
INVERSION OFFSHORE. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...THE HRRR BRINGS RAIN IN
OFFSHORE WHICH MORE OR LESS HONORS THE OTHER INDICATORS OF CAPE AND
LI AND WHATNOT...AND WITH NCAR ENSEMBLES ALSO DOWNPLAYING
CONVECTION...WE ARE GOING TO GO FOR ISOLATED AND THAT MAINLY
OFFSHORE. WE WILL KEEP CONVECTION PRETTY MUCH NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 80S FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS INLAND IN THE UPPER 60S...AND LOW 70S FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A DEEP HIGH LEVEL TROF POSITIONED OVER
THE WESTERN US AND A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM
FLORIDA INTO THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BETWEEN
THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE
EVOLVING HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST TAPS AND
PULLS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WELL UP TO ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MODIFY TO
AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON AVERAGE WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
MAY 24TH. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW SUNDAY MORNING...FORECASTERS EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE COAST...WHICH SPREADS INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
LIFT OFFERED BY THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY LOOKS TO AID IN COVERAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG CONTAINING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
OCCURRENCE.

WELL ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. THE
INCREASE IN WINDS...ELEVATED SWELL...BREAKER ACTION AND SPRING TIDAL
CYCLES...RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG OUR SHORES
SUNDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
69 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER/MID 70S COASTAL ZONES. /10

LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY TO FRIDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE TO
THE EAST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH UPPER
TROF AXIS EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROF MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE CLOSE
OF THE WEEK. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED ON THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES PRODUCING BRIEF
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT...NOW IN THE MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 70S COASTAL ZONES. /10

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING LIGHT
EAST WINDS WHICH WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 6 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY.
BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CHOPPY. THE SWAN CAME OUT
CLOSE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WNA AND GWW WAVE MODELS AS WELL AS WITH
THE BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  70  86  72  84 /  10  20  40  30  60
PENSACOLA   87  73  84  74  84 /  10  20  30  30  60
DESTIN      86  74  85  75  84 /  10  20  30  30  60
EVERGREEN   87  67  89  69  86 /  10  10  30  20  50
WAYNESBORO  87  66  86  69  83 /  05  10  40  40  60
CAMDEN      87  68  88  69  84 /  05  10  30  20  60
CRESTVIEW   89  66  90  69  87 /  10  20  30  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 231523
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1023 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...DEWPOINTS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMING
QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF INSOLATION.
THEREFORE...INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S. NO OTHER
MAJOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
7-10 KTS OUT OF THE SE ON SATURDAY.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

CLEAR SKIES ARE UPON MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN
ALABAMA COUNTIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT SUPPLIED US WITH VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THAT WILL PLACE CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A
DRY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DURING THE DAY TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD
FROM GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER
TODAY THAN ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING SIGNIFICANTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. MEANWHILE MOISTURE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY WITH PWATS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. AS THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN STORE ON
MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF. THE
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE REVOLVING AROUND THE BASE OF WHAT
WILL BECOME A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF OVER 30 KNOTS.
THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN
NATURE...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AND DYNAMICS INVOLVED. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A WARM...VERY MOIST...AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WE`LL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS MOST
OF THE STATE IS BECOMING ABNORMALLY DRY. WITH THIS IN MIND...EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE
COMING WEEK EACH DAY...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE A GOOD BIT OF
RAINFALL AND MOST WILL BE BENEFICIAL IN NATURE.

56/GDG

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231521 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...TO RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TWEAK DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER COULD SEE SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT IS VERY DRY (850 MB TO 700 MB). SOME MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE FORECASTING RH VALUES AT THESE LEVELS TO REACH 80 TO 95 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM ANALYSIS AND
EXPECTED ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ERODE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS...SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE
SHOALS...TO REACH 86 OR 87 DEGREES. MOST LOCATIONS THOUGH SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DUE TO LAYER OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AT
850 MB...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO
AFTERNOON MIXING.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY THRU
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO ROLL OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LARGER AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY EJECT THRU THE MO/OH VALLEYS EARLY-MID
WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARMER TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (U70S- L80S) AND SUNDAY
(L-M80S). OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. THE 10-15 DEGREE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WE HAVE THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCES WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FORECASTING A WETTER PERIOD
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE THAT
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND THE INCOMING TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF.
SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK NE THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTING
NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMID AIR (DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS HIT 70) WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIP. THUS, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMALS IN THE U70S-L80S UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AT LEAST NOTHING
WIDESPREAD) WITH VERY MOIST ATMO PROFILES AND ONLY WEAK-MODERATE
SHEAR. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROF, SO WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE OF THE STORMS ON
THAT DAY. FOLLOWED THE BLENDS RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE OUTER PERIODS
WITH POPS ONLY IN CHC OR SCHC RANGE DAYS 6-7. WE MAY NEED TO RAISE
TEMPS IN FUTURE UPDATES LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND IN THE ECMWF
CONTINUES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231521 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...TO RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TWEAK DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER COULD SEE SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT IS VERY DRY (850 MB TO 700 MB). SOME MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE FORECASTING RH VALUES AT THESE LEVELS TO REACH 80 TO 95 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM ANALYSIS AND
EXPECTED ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ERODE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS...SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE
SHOALS...TO REACH 86 OR 87 DEGREES. MOST LOCATIONS THOUGH SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DUE TO LAYER OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AT
850 MB...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO
AFTERNOON MIXING.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY THRU
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO ROLL OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LARGER AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY EJECT THRU THE MO/OH VALLEYS EARLY-MID
WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARMER TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (U70S- L80S) AND SUNDAY
(L-M80S). OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. THE 10-15 DEGREE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WE HAVE THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCES WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FORECASTING A WETTER PERIOD
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE THAT
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND THE INCOMING TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF.
SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK NE THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTING
NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMID AIR (DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS HIT 70) WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIP. THUS, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMALS IN THE U70S-L80S UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AT LEAST NOTHING
WIDESPREAD) WITH VERY MOIST ATMO PROFILES AND ONLY WEAK-MODERATE
SHEAR. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROF, SO WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE OF THE STORMS ON
THAT DAY. FOLLOWED THE BLENDS RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE OUTER PERIODS
WITH POPS ONLY IN CHC OR SCHC RANGE DAYS 6-7. WE MAY NEED TO RAISE
TEMPS IN FUTURE UPDATES LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND IN THE ECMWF
CONTINUES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 231119 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY THRU
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO ROLL OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LARGER AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY EJECT THRU THE MO/OH VALLEYS EARLY-MID
WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARMER TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (U70S- L80S) AND SUNDAY
(L-M80S). OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. THE 10-15 DEGREE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WE HAVE THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCES WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FORECASTING A WETTER PERIOD
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE THAT
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND THE INCOMING TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF.
SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK NE THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTING
NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMID AIR (DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS HIT 70) WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIP. THUS, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMALS IN THE U70S-L80S UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AT LEAST NOTHING
WIDESPREAD) WITH VERY MOIST ATMO PROFILES AND ONLY WEAK-MODERATE
SHEAR. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROF, SO WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE OF THE STORMS ON
THAT DAY. FOLLOWED THE BLENDS RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE OUTER PERIODS
WITH POPS ONLY IN CHC OR SCHC RANGE DAYS 6-7. WE MAY NEED TO RAISE
TEMPS IN FUTURE UPDATES LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND IN THE ECMWF
CONTINUES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231119 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY THRU
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO ROLL OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LARGER AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY EJECT THRU THE MO/OH VALLEYS EARLY-MID
WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARMER TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (U70S- L80S) AND SUNDAY
(L-M80S). OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. THE 10-15 DEGREE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WE HAVE THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCES WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FORECASTING A WETTER PERIOD
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE THAT
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND THE INCOMING TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF.
SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK NE THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTING
NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMID AIR (DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS HIT 70) WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIP. THUS, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMALS IN THE U70S-L80S UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AT LEAST NOTHING
WIDESPREAD) WITH VERY MOIST ATMO PROFILES AND ONLY WEAK-MODERATE
SHEAR. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROF, SO WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE OF THE STORMS ON
THAT DAY. FOLLOWED THE BLENDS RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE OUTER PERIODS
WITH POPS ONLY IN CHC OR SCHC RANGE DAYS 6-7. WE MAY NEED TO RAISE
TEMPS IN FUTURE UPDATES LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND IN THE ECMWF
CONTINUES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 231119 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY THRU
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO ROLL OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LARGER AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY EJECT THRU THE MO/OH VALLEYS EARLY-MID
WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARMER TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (U70S- L80S) AND SUNDAY
(L-M80S). OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. THE 10-15 DEGREE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WE HAVE THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCES WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FORECASTING A WETTER PERIOD
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE THAT
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND THE INCOMING TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF.
SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK NE THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTING
NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMID AIR (DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS HIT 70) WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIP. THUS, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMALS IN THE U70S-L80S UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AT LEAST NOTHING
WIDESPREAD) WITH VERY MOIST ATMO PROFILES AND ONLY WEAK-MODERATE
SHEAR. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROF, SO WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE OF THE STORMS ON
THAT DAY. FOLLOWED THE BLENDS RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE OUTER PERIODS
WITH POPS ONLY IN CHC OR SCHC RANGE DAYS 6-7. WE MAY NEED TO RAISE
TEMPS IN FUTURE UPDATES LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND IN THE ECMWF
CONTINUES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 231119 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY THRU
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO ROLL OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LARGER AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY EJECT THRU THE MO/OH VALLEYS EARLY-MID
WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARMER TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (U70S- L80S) AND SUNDAY
(L-M80S). OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. THE 10-15 DEGREE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WE HAVE THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCES WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FORECASTING A WETTER PERIOD
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE THAT
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND THE INCOMING TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF.
SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK NE THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTING
NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMID AIR (DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS HIT 70) WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIP. THUS, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMALS IN THE U70S-L80S UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AT LEAST NOTHING
WIDESPREAD) WITH VERY MOIST ATMO PROFILES AND ONLY WEAK-MODERATE
SHEAR. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROF, SO WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE OF THE STORMS ON
THAT DAY. FOLLOWED THE BLENDS RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE OUTER PERIODS
WITH POPS ONLY IN CHC OR SCHC RANGE DAYS 6-7. WE MAY NEED TO RAISE
TEMPS IN FUTURE UPDATES LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND IN THE ECMWF
CONTINUES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KMOB 231000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...MOS IS CONTINUING WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN INLAND. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES CAPE STARTS
BELOW 400 J/KG AND STARTS CREEPING TO ABOVE 1500 LATER TODAY ALONG
THE COAST. LI`S BECOME SUB-ZERO SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALONG INTERSTATE
10 TO MOBILE TO BAY MINETTE AND NORTHEAST TO ANDALUSIA BY 18Z. THEY
FALL TO ALMOST -5 JUST 20 MILES OFF DESTIN AND ABOUT -5.5 OUT 60
MILES OFF DESTIN. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE REGION IS ABOUT -1 TO -2 SO IT
DOES APPEAR THIS FRONT THAT BROUGHT US A COOL DAY FRIDAY IS LOSING
ITS STRUCTURE. ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB IS INDICATED WEAK BY A FLAT
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF ABOUT 35 DEGREES NORTH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF NORTH OF THE
COASTLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK POST FRONTAL LAYER
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 500 AND 550 MB AS WELL AS WEAK DYNAMICS...AND THIS
MAY BE WHAT IS TELLING MOS TO KEEP POPS LOW. POPS FROM THE EURO ARE
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO SUCH
INVERSION OFFSHORE. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...THE HRRR BRINGS RAIN IN
OFFSHORE WHICH MORE OR LESS HONORS THE OTHER INDICATORS OF CAPE AND
LI AND WHATNOT...AND WITH NCAR ENSEMBLES ALSO DOWNPLAYING
CONVECTION...WE ARE GOING TO GO FOR ISOLATED AND THAT MAINLY
OFFSHORE. WE WILL KEEP CONVECTION PRETTY MUCH NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 80S FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS INLAND IN THE UPPER 60S...AND LOW 70S FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A DEEP HIGH LEVEL TROF POSITIONED OVER
THE WESTERN US AND A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM
FLORIDA INTO THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BETWEEN
THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE
EVOLVING HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST TAPS AND
PULLS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WELL UP TO ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MODIFY TO
AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON AVERAGE WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
MAY 24TH. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW SUNDAY MORNING...FORECASTERS EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE COAST...WHICH SPREADS INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
LIFT OFFERED BY THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY LOOKS TO AID IN COVERAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG CONTAINING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
OCCURRENCE.

WELL ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. THE
INCREASE IN WINDS...ELEVATED SWELL...BREAKER ACTION AND SPRING TIDAL
CYCLES...RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG OUR SHORES
SUNDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
69 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER/MID 70S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY TO FRIDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE TO
THE EAST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH UPPER
TROF AXIS EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROF MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE CLOSE
OF THE WEEK. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED ON THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES PRODUCING BRIEF
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT...NOW IN THE MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 70S COASTAL ZONES. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
23.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND LIGHT STARTING OFF AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST LATER TODAY. WINDS SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY
BECOMING CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE SHORELINE. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING LIGHT
EAST WINDS WHICH WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 6 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY.
BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CHOPPY. THE SWAN CAME OUT
CLOSE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WNA AND GWW WAVE MODELS AS WELL AS WITH
THE BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  70  86  72  84 /  10  20  40  30  60
PENSACOLA   85  73  84  74  84 /  10  20  30  30  60
DESTIN      84  74  85  75  84 /  20  20  30  30  60
EVERGREEN   87  67  89  69  86 /  10  10  30  20  50
WAYNESBORO  88  66  86  69  83 /  05  10  40  40  60
CAMDEN      87  68  88  69  84 /  05  10  30  20  60
CRESTVIEW   89  66  90  69  87 /  20  20  30  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBMX 230910
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
410 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES ARE UPON MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN
ALABAMA COUNTIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT SUPPLIED US WITH VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THAT WILL PLACE CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A
DRY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DURING THE DAY TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD
FROM GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER
TODAY THAN ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING SIGNIFICANTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. MEANWHILE MOISTURE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY WITH PWATS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. AS THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN STORE ON
MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF. THE
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE REVOLVING AROUND THE BASE OF WHAT
WILL BECOME A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF OVER 30 KNOTS.
THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN
NATURE...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AND DYNAMICS INVOLVED. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A WARM...VERY MOIST...AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WE`LL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS MOST
OF THE STATE IS BECOMING ABNORMALLY DRY. WITH THIS IN MIND...EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE
COMING WEEK EACH DAY...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE A GOOD BIT OF
RAINFALL AND MOST WILL BE BENEFICIAL IN NATURE.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
7-10 KTS OUT OF THE SE ON SATURDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     83  59  85  68  82 /   0   0  10  20  50
ANNISTON    83  62  84  69  83 /   0   0  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  84  66  85  70  83 /   0   0  30  20  60
TUSCALOOSA  85  67  87  70  84 /   0   0  40  40  60
CALERA      83  65  86  70  83 /   0   0  30  30  60
AUBURN      81  63  85  67  83 /   0   0  10  20  40
MONTGOMERY  85  66  88  70  86 /   0   0  30  20  50
TROY        84  66  87  69  85 /   0   0  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 230910
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
410 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES ARE UPON MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN
ALABAMA COUNTIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT SUPPLIED US WITH VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THAT WILL PLACE CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A
DRY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DURING THE DAY TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD
FROM GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER
TODAY THAN ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING SIGNIFICANTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. MEANWHILE MOISTURE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY WITH PWATS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. AS THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN STORE ON
MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF. THE
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE REVOLVING AROUND THE BASE OF WHAT
WILL BECOME A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF OVER 30 KNOTS.
THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN
NATURE...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AND DYNAMICS INVOLVED. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS CENTRAL ALABAMA IN
A WARM...VERY MOIST...AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WE`LL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS MOST
OF THE STATE IS BECOMING ABNORMALLY DRY. WITH THIS IN MIND...EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE
COMING WEEK EACH DAY...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE A GOOD BIT OF
RAINFALL AND MOST WILL BE BENEFICIAL IN NATURE.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
7-10 KTS OUT OF THE SE ON SATURDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     83  59  85  68  82 /   0   0  10  20  50
ANNISTON    83  62  84  69  83 /   0   0  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  84  66  85  70  83 /   0   0  30  20  60
TUSCALOOSA  85  67  87  70  84 /   0   0  40  40  60
CALERA      83  65  86  70  83 /   0   0  30  30  60
AUBURN      81  63  85  67  83 /   0   0  10  20  40
MONTGOMERY  85  66  88  70  86 /   0   0  30  20  50
TROY        84  66  87  69  85 /   0   0  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230645
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY THRU
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO ROLL OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LARGER AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY EJECT THRU THE MO/OH VALLEYS EARLY-MID
WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARMER TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (U70S- L80S) AND SUNDAY
(L-M80S). OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. THE 10-15 DEGREE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WE HAVE THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCES WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FORECASTING A WETTER PERIOD
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE THAT
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND THE INCOMING TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF.
SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK NE THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTING
NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMID AIR (DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS HIT 70) WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIP. THUS, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMALS IN THE U70S-L80S UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AT LEAST NOTHING
WIDESPREAD) WITH VERY MOIST ATMO PROFILES AND ONLY WEAK-MODERATE
SHEAR. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROF, SO WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE OF THE STORMS ON
THAT DAY. FOLLOWED THE BLENDS RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE OUTER PERIODS
WITH POPS ONLY IN CHC OR SCHC RANGE DAYS 6-7. WE MAY NEED TO RAISE
TEMPS IN FUTURE UPDATES LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND IN THE ECMWF
CONTINUES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1239 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO 5-10
KTS SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER VALUES. ONLY A FEW TO SCT MID
TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    86  62  86  69 /   0   0  20  30
SHOALS        84  62  87  69 /   0   0  30  40
VINEMONT      81  63  83  66 /   0   0  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  79  60  81  66 /   0   0  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   80  60  83  66 /   0   0  10  20
FORT PAYNE    79  58  83  64 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230645
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY THRU
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO ROLL OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LARGER AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY EJECT THRU THE MO/OH VALLEYS EARLY-MID
WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARMER TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (U70S- L80S) AND SUNDAY
(L-M80S). OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. THE 10-15 DEGREE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WE HAVE THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCES WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FORECASTING A WETTER PERIOD
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE THAT
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND THE INCOMING TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF.
SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK NE THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTING
NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMID AIR (DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS HIT 70) WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIP. THUS, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMALS IN THE U70S-L80S UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AT LEAST NOTHING
WIDESPREAD) WITH VERY MOIST ATMO PROFILES AND ONLY WEAK-MODERATE
SHEAR. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROF, SO WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE OF THE STORMS ON
THAT DAY. FOLLOWED THE BLENDS RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE OUTER PERIODS
WITH POPS ONLY IN CHC OR SCHC RANGE DAYS 6-7. WE MAY NEED TO RAISE
TEMPS IN FUTURE UPDATES LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND IN THE ECMWF
CONTINUES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1239 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO 5-10
KTS SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER VALUES. ONLY A FEW TO SCT MID
TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    86  62  86  69 /   0   0  20  30
SHOALS        84  62  87  69 /   0   0  30  40
VINEMONT      81  63  83  66 /   0   0  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  79  60  81  66 /   0   0  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   80  60  83  66 /   0   0  10  20
FORT PAYNE    79  58  83  64 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230645
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY THRU
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO ROLL OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LARGER AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY EJECT THRU THE MO/OH VALLEYS EARLY-MID
WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARMER TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (U70S- L80S) AND SUNDAY
(L-M80S). OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. THE 10-15 DEGREE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WE HAVE THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCES WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FORECASTING A WETTER PERIOD
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE THAT
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND THE INCOMING TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF.
SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK NE THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTING
NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMID AIR (DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS HIT 70) WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIP. THUS, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMALS IN THE U70S-L80S UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AT LEAST NOTHING
WIDESPREAD) WITH VERY MOIST ATMO PROFILES AND ONLY WEAK-MODERATE
SHEAR. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROF, SO WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE OF THE STORMS ON
THAT DAY. FOLLOWED THE BLENDS RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE OUTER PERIODS
WITH POPS ONLY IN CHC OR SCHC RANGE DAYS 6-7. WE MAY NEED TO RAISE
TEMPS IN FUTURE UPDATES LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND IN THE ECMWF
CONTINUES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1239 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO 5-10
KTS SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER VALUES. ONLY A FEW TO SCT MID
TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    86  62  86  69 /   0   0  20  30
SHOALS        84  62  87  69 /   0   0  30  40
VINEMONT      81  63  83  66 /   0   0  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  79  60  81  66 /   0   0  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   80  60  83  66 /   0   0  10  20
FORT PAYNE    79  58  83  64 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230645
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY THRU
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO ROLL OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LARGER AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY EJECT THRU THE MO/OH VALLEYS EARLY-MID
WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARMER TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (U70S- L80S) AND SUNDAY
(L-M80S). OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. THE 10-15 DEGREE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WE HAVE THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCES WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FORECASTING A WETTER PERIOD
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE THAT
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND THE INCOMING TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF.
SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK NE THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTING
NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMID AIR (DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS HIT 70) WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIP. THUS, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMALS IN THE U70S-L80S UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AT LEAST NOTHING
WIDESPREAD) WITH VERY MOIST ATMO PROFILES AND ONLY WEAK-MODERATE
SHEAR. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROF, SO WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE OF THE STORMS ON
THAT DAY. FOLLOWED THE BLENDS RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE OUTER PERIODS
WITH POPS ONLY IN CHC OR SCHC RANGE DAYS 6-7. WE MAY NEED TO RAISE
TEMPS IN FUTURE UPDATES LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND IN THE ECMWF
CONTINUES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1239 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO 5-10
KTS SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER VALUES. ONLY A FEW TO SCT MID
TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    86  62  86  69 /   0   0  20  30
SHOALS        84  62  87  69 /   0   0  30  40
VINEMONT      81  63  83  66 /   0   0  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  79  60  81  66 /   0   0  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   80  60  83  66 /   0   0  10  20
FORT PAYNE    79  58  83  64 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



000
FXUS64 KHUN 230645
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY THRU
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO ROLL OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LARGER AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY EJECT THRU THE MO/OH VALLEYS EARLY-MID
WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARMER TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (U70S- L80S) AND SUNDAY
(L-M80S). OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. THE 10-15 DEGREE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WE HAVE THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCES WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FORECASTING A WETTER PERIOD
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE THAT
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND THE INCOMING TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF.
SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK NE THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTING
NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMID AIR (DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS HIT 70) WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIP. THUS, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMALS IN THE U70S-L80S UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AT LEAST NOTHING
WIDESPREAD) WITH VERY MOIST ATMO PROFILES AND ONLY WEAK-MODERATE
SHEAR. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROF, SO WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE OF THE STORMS ON
THAT DAY. FOLLOWED THE BLENDS RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE OUTER PERIODS
WITH POPS ONLY IN CHC OR SCHC RANGE DAYS 6-7. WE MAY NEED TO RAISE
TEMPS IN FUTURE UPDATES LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND IN THE ECMWF
CONTINUES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1239 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO 5-10
KTS SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER VALUES. ONLY A FEW TO SCT MID
TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    86  62  86  69 /   0   0  20  30
SHOALS        84  62  87  69 /   0   0  30  40
VINEMONT      81  63  83  66 /   0   0  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  79  60  81  66 /   0   0  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   80  60  83  66 /   0   0  10  20
FORT PAYNE    79  58  83  64 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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