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000
FXUS64 KLZK 161103
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
603 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS TODAY. JUST AN
INCREASE IN CUMULUS CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THIS MORNING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN/
CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH...MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS. THIS WILL
STOP THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH UPPER
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WILL BRING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
ARKANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING LESS MOISTURE THAN THE GFS.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS STABILITY DECREASES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS
MONDAY...AND THIS WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AND BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 85 57 82 60 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 88 59 90 60 / 0 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 84 56 81 60 / 20 20 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 88 60 88 63 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 88 62 88 65 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 87 60 89 63 / 0 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 87 55 86 57 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 85 56 83 59 / 20 20 10 10
NEWPORT AR 87 58 85 62 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 86 61 88 63 / 0 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 88 59 87 60 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 86 59 86 59 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 86 63 87 64 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 160820
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
320 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THIS MORNING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN/
CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH...MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS. THIS WILL
STOP THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH UPPER
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WILL BRING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
ARKANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING LESS MOISTURE THAN THE GFS.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS STABILITY DECREASES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS
MONDAY...AND THIS WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AND BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 85 57 82 60 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 88 59 90 60 / 0 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 84 56 81 60 / 20 20 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 88 60 88 63 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 88 62 88 65 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 87 60 89 63 / 0 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 87 55 86 57 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 85 56 83 59 / 20 20 10 10
NEWPORT AR 87 58 85 62 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 86 61 88 63 / 0 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 88 59 87 60 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 86 59 86 59 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 86 63 87 64 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 160542
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1242 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE STATE WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT...AND ACTUALLY JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT BUT A SHIFT TO THE NORTH CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. EVENING CONVECTION OVER SW AR WINDING
DOWN AND ONLY SEEING SOME CIRRUS BLOW OFF CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
SOUTHERN AR FROM EVENING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN LA. WITH EVENING
UPDATE WILL REMOVE CONVECTION...ADJUST CLOUDS A BIT OVER THE
SOUTH...WHILE TEMPS OVERALL ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.
(59)
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO POP UP IN WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE ARE MOSTLY HEAT DRIVEN...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
DWINDLING AS SUNSET APPROACHES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN THE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH A STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...RAIN LOOKS MINIMAL AS RIDGING EVENTUALLY OCCURS
AHEAD OF A NEW STORM SYSTEM/FRONT IN THE PLAINS. UNDER THE RIDGE...
IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF GENERALLY DRY AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS. WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY...SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOONS THIS COMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL ALSO BE WARMEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES COME LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
AR MON INTO TUE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS MENTIONED FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THESE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP SOME...BUT WILL STILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 84 59 85 62 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 86 60 88 61 / 0 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 83 57 84 61 / 20 20 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 85 60 87 62 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 86 60 87 64 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 86 59 88 62 / 0 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 85 59 86 60 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 58 84 61 / 20 20 10 10
NEWPORT AR 84 60 86 63 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 86 60 87 63 / 0 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 85 58 87 61 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 84 60 86 62 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 85 60 87 64 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 160210 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
910 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. EVENING CONVECTION OVER SW AR WINDING
DOWN AND ONLY SEEING SOME CIRRUS BLOW OFF CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
SOUTHERN AR FROM EVENING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN LA. WITH EVENING
UPDATE WILL REMOVE CONVECTION...ADJUST CLOUDS A BIT OVER THE
SOUTH...WHILE TEMPS OVERALL ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.
(59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO POP UP IN WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE ARE MOSTLY HEAT DRIVEN...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
DWINDLING AS SUNSET APPROACHES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN THE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH A STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...RAIN LOOKS MINIMAL AS RIDGING EVENTUALLY OCCURS
AHEAD OF A NEW STORM SYSTEM/FRONT IN THE PLAINS. UNDER THE RIDGE...
IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF GENERALLY DRY AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS. WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY...SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOONS THIS COMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL ALSO BE WARMEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES COME LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
AR MON INTO TUE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS MENTIONED FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THESE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP SOME...BUT WILL STILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 56 84 59 85 / 0 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 57 86 60 88 / 10 0 10 10
HARRISON AR 53 83 57 84 / 0 20 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 58 85 60 87 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 58 86 60 87 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 57 86 59 88 / 10 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 55 85 59 86 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 55 84 58 84 / 0 20 20 10
NEWPORT AR 57 84 60 86 / 0 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 58 86 60 87 / 10 0 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 55 85 58 87 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 57 84 60 86 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 59 85 60 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...62
000
FXUS64 KLZK 151900
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
200 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO POP UP IN WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE ARE MOSTLY HEAT DRIVEN...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
DWINDLING AS SUNSET APPROACHES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN THE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH A STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...RAIN LOOKS MINIMAL AS RIDGING EVENTUALLY OCCURS
AHEAD OF A NEW STORM SYSTEM/FRONT IN THE PLAINS. UNDER THE RIDGE...
IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF GENERALLY DRY AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS. WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY...SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOONS THIS COMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL ALSO BE WARMEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES COME LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
AR MON INTO TUE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS MENTIONED FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THESE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP SOME...BUT WILL STILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 56 84 59 85 / 0 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 57 86 60 88 / 10 0 10 10
HARRISON AR 53 83 57 84 / 0 20 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 58 85 60 87 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 58 86 60 87 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 57 86 59 88 / 10 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 55 85 59 86 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 55 84 58 84 / 0 20 20 10
NEWPORT AR 57 84 60 86 / 0 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 58 86 60 87 / 10 0 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 55 85 58 87 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 57 84 60 86 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 59 85 60 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...62
000
FXUS64 KLZK 151717 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1217 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW CU WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES TO THE SE OF AR. THIS WILL PUT
AR IN WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...AND WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL ALSO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CHANCES TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM REMAINS RATHER BENIGN. ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS WITH
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES...SAVE A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL START IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY...BUT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS MENTIONED...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR THE MOST PART.
THE TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE WED
EVENING/NIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH/RIDGES EXIST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND WESTERN SEABOARD REGIONS RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL BE THE
CASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ELONGATED TROUGH ENERGY
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWEST INTO NE
TEXAS. THIS ENERGY MAY SPARK OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
THE SOUTHWEST...MUCH LIKE HAS OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF
ARKANSAS THE LAST TWO EVENINGS. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPARSE AND
HAVE POPS ONLY IN THE 15 PERCENT RANGE. THE NEXT EXCEPTION FOR
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WED EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
STATE FROM THE NORTH ON WED AFTERNOON. UPPER ENERGY...ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF
ARKANSAS. AS SUCH THE FRONT WILL LOSE FORWARD PROGRESS AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN SRN MISSOURI/NRN ARKANSAS
WED EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 15 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NRN
TIER OF COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS IS NOT A VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE SITUATION W/REGARD TO PRECIPITATION WED EVENING.
FRANKLY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THOUGH IF THE TIMING AND SPEED OF
THIS FRONT SLOWS WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP
DIMINISHES ACCORDINGLY. BUT SINCE THERE IS SUPPORT IN THE MODELS
AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE IT IN THERE FOR THE TIME BEING.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSES BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER ITS
CONCLUSION. IN THE INTERIM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SEEN TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FINALLY RETURNING TO THE
AREA ON DAY SEVEN. FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THIS MORNING AND WILL
LEAN IT ITS DIRECTION.
PATTERN INITIATES WITH UPPER RIDGING COVERING THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RIDGING WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION ON MONDAY AND
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. MOISTURE RETURN NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS PRESENT TO WARRANT CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 81 55 84 58 / 10 0 10 20
CAMDEN AR 84 58 86 58 / 10 10 0 10
HARRISON AR 80 53 83 57 / 0 0 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 84 58 85 59 / 10 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 83 59 86 60 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 84 59 86 60 / 10 10 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 84 54 85 55 / 20 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 54 84 57 / 0 0 20 20
NEWPORT AR 82 56 84 60 / 10 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 84 59 86 60 / 10 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 82 55 85 56 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 83 56 84 57 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 84 59 85 60 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
000
FXUS64 KLZK 151119
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
619 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREDOMINATE. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
MOVE FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
ONLY OCCASIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.
AS A SIDE NOTE...KM89 HAS REPORTED IFR/MVFR FOG AT VARIOUS POINTS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE ACCURACY AND RELIABILITY OF THESE
OBSERVATIONS IS NOT HIGH AND HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE FOG OUT OF ANY
PREVAILING/TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE 12Z KM89 TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM REMAINS RATHER BENIGN. ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS WITH
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES...SAVE A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL START IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY...BUT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS MENTIONED...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR THE MOST PART.
THE TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE WED
EVENING/NIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH/RIDGES EXIST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND WESTERN SEABOARD REGIONS RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL BE THE
CASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ELONGATED TROUGH ENERGY
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWEST INTO NE
TEXAS. THIS ENERGY MAY SPARK OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
THE SOUTHWEST...MUCH LIKE HAS OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF
ARKANSAS THE LAST TWO EVENINGS. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPARSE AND
HAVE POPS ONLY IN THE 15 PERCENT RANGE. THE NEXT EXCEPTION FOR
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WED EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
STATE FROM THE NORTH ON WED AFTERNOON. UPPER ENERGY...ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF
ARKANSAS. AS SUCH THE FRONT WILL LOSE FORWARD PROGRESS AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN SRN MISSOURI/NRN ARKANSAS
WED EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 15 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NRN
TIER OF COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS IS NOT A VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE SITUATION W/REGARD TO PRECIPITATION WED EVENING.
FRANKLY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THOUGH IF THE TIMING AND SPEED OF
THIS FRONT SLOWS WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP
DIMINISHES ACCORDINGLY. BUT SINCE THERE IS SUPPORT IN THE MODELS
AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE IT IN THERE FOR THE TIME BEING.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSES BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER ITS
CONCLUSION. IN THE INTERIM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SEEN TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FINALLY RETURNING TO THE
AREA ON DAY SEVEN. FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THIS MORNING AND WILL
LEAN IT ITS DIRECTION.
PATTERN INITIATES WITH UPPER RIDGING COVERING THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RIDGING WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION ON MONDAY AND
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. MOISTURE RETURN NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS PRESENT TO WARRANT CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 81 55 84 58 / 10 0 10 20
CAMDEN AR 84 58 86 58 / 10 10 0 10
HARRISON AR 79 53 83 57 / 0 0 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 83 58 85 59 / 10 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 83 59 86 60 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 84 59 86 60 / 10 10 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 82 54 85 55 / 20 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 54 84 57 / 0 0 20 20
NEWPORT AR 82 56 84 60 / 10 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 83 59 86 60 / 10 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 82 55 85 56 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 82 56 84 57 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 83 59 85 60 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...56
000
FXUS64 KLZK 150800
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM REMAINS RATHER BENIGN. ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS WITH
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES...SAVE A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL START IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY...BUT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS MENTIONED...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR THE MOST PART.
THE TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE WED
EVENING/NIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH/RIDGES EXIST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND WESTERN SEABOARD REGIONS RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL BE THE
CASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ELONGATED TROUGH ENERGY
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWEST INTO NE
TEXAS. THIS ENERGY MAY SPARK OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
THE SOUTHWEST...MUCH LIKE HAS OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF
ARKANSAS THE LAST TWO EVENINGS. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPARSE AND
HAVE POPS ONLY IN THE 15 PERCENT RANGE. THE NEXT EXCEPTION FOR
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WED EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
STATE FROM THE NORTH ON WED AFTERNOON. UPPER ENERGY...ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF
ARKANSAS. AS SUCH THE FRONT WILL LOSE FORWARD PROGRESS AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN SRN MISSOURI/NRN ARKANSAS
WED EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 15 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NRN
TIER OF COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS IS NOT A VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE SITUATION W/REGARD TO PRECIPITATION WED EVENING.
FRANKLY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THOUGH IF THE TIMING AND SPEED OF
THIS FRONT SLOWS WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP
DIMINISHES ACCORDINGLY. BUT SINCE THERE IS SUPPORT IN THE MODELS
AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE IT IN THERE FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSES BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER ITS
CONCLUSION. IN THE INTERIM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SEEN TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FINALLY RETURNING TO THE
AREA ON DAY SEVEN. FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THIS MORNING AND WILL
LEAN IT ITS DIRECTION.
PATTERN INITIATES WITH UPPER RIDGING COVERING THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RIDGING WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION ON MONDAY AND
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. MOISTURE RETURN NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS PRESENT TO WARRANT CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 81 55 84 58 / 10 0 10 20
CAMDEN AR 84 58 86 58 / 10 10 0 10
HARRISON AR 79 53 83 57 / 0 0 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 83 58 85 59 / 10 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 83 59 86 60 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 84 59 86 60 / 10 10 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 82 54 85 55 / 20 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 54 84 57 / 0 0 20 20
NEWPORT AR 82 56 84 60 / 10 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 83 59 86 60 / 10 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 82 55 85 56 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 82 56 84 57 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 83 59 85 60 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...56
000
FXUS64 KLZK 150541
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1241 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREDOMINATE. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT ONLY OCCASIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. EVENING CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AND WILL
TAKE OUT WITH EVENING UPDATE. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
OVER AR BUT WILL THIN OVERNIGHT AS SOURCE OVER TX PUSHING MORE SE
AND TAKING CLOUDS SE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS PIVOTING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ENERGY WELL SW AND S OF AR. WILL FINE TUNE CLOUDS AND
ADJUST A FEW TEMPS WITH LATE EVENING UPDATE. (59)
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE WEST WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...AND WILL NOT AFFECT KHOT. LIGHT NORTH TO
CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AROUND 5 MPH TUESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING LATE IN THE MORNING
TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS FCST PACKAGE. A GENERALLY WEAK UPR
FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE
NATURAL STATE THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NRLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP DEWPTS AT
BAY AND PROVIDE A PLEASANT WEEK AS MUGGY CONDS REMAIN SQUASHED WELL
SOUTH. AFTER MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...THE REST
OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY DRY. A SHOWER OR 2 CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN SRN AR TUE AND IN NRN AR ON WED...BUT FORCING REMAINS
TOO WEAK AND THE ATMOS IS TOO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
IN THE FCST. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 80 TODAY TO NEAR 90
IN MANY AREAS BY THU/FRI.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL UNFOLD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND WEST...AND RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY. LONG STORY SHORT...GIVEN A BUILDING RIDGE...NO RAIN IS
IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 54 83 58 84 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 55 86 59 88 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 55 83 57 83 / 10 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 57 85 59 87 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 59 86 60 88 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 59 86 61 88 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 51 85 55 86 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 54 83 58 84 / 10 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 55 84 60 86 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 59 85 60 87 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 53 84 57 85 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 52 83 58 86 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 59 85 61 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...56
000
FXUS64 KLZK 150131 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
835 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. EVENING CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AND WILL
TAKE OUT WITH EVENING UPDATE. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
OVER AR BUT WILL THIN OVERNIGHT AS SOURCE OVER TX PUSHING MORE SE
AND TAKING CLOUDS SE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS PIVOTING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ENERGY WELL SW AND S OF AR. WILL FINE TUNE CLOUDS AND
ADJUST A FEW TEMPS WITH LATE EVENING UPDATE. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE WEST WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...AND WILL NOT AFFECT KHOT. LIGHT NORTH TO
CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AROUND 5 MPH TUESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING LATE IN THE MORNING
TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS FCST PACKAGE. A GENERALLY WEAK UPR
FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE
NATURAL STATE THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NRLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP DEWPTS AT
BAY AND PROVIDE A PLEASANT WEEK AS MUGGY CONDS REMAIN SQUASHED WELL
SOUTH. AFTER MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...THE REST
OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY DRY. A SHOWER OR 2 CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN SRN AR TUE AND IN NRN AR ON WED...BUT FORCING REMAINS
TOO WEAK AND THE ATMOS IS TOO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
IN THE FCST. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 80 TODAY TO NEAR 90
IN MANY AREAS BY THU/FRI.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL UNFOLD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND WEST...AND RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY. LONG STORY SHORT...GIVEN A BUILDING RIDGE...NO RAIN IS
IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 142332 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE WEST WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...AND WILL NOT AFFECT KHOT. LIGHT NORTH TO
CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AROUND 5 MPH TUESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING LATE IN THE MORNING
TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS FCST PACKAGE. A GENERALLY WEAK UPR
FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE
NATURAL STATE THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NRLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP DEWPTS AT
BAY AND PROVIDE A PLEASANT WEEK AS MUGGY CONDS REMAIN SQUASHED WELL
SOUTH. AFTER MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...THE REST
OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY DRY. A SHOWER OR 2 CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN SRN AR TUE AND IN NRN AR ON WED...BUT FORCING REMAINS
TOO WEAK AND THE ATMOS IS TOO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
IN THE FCST. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 80 TODAY TO NEAR 90
IN MANY AREAS BY THU/FRI.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL UNFOLD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND WEST...AND RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY. LONG STORY SHORT...GIVEN A BUILDING RIDGE...NO RAIN IS
IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 141937
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
237 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS FCST PACKAGE. A GENERALLY WEAK UPR
FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE
NATURAL STATE THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NRLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP DEWPTS AT
BAY AND PROVIDE A PLEASANT WEEK AS MUGGY CONDS REMAIN SQUASHED WELL
SOUTH. AFTER MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...THE REST
OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY DRY. A SHOWER OR 2 CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN SRN AR TUE AND IN NRN AR ON WED...BUT FORCING REMAINS
TOO WEAK AND THE ATMOS IS TOO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
IN THE FCST. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 80 TODAY TO NEAR 90
IN MANY AREAS BY THU/FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL UNFOLD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND WEST...AND RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY. LONG STORY SHORT...GIVEN A BUILDING RIDGE...NO RAIN IS
IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 54 81 54 83 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 59 85 55 86 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 51 79 55 83 / 10 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 58 83 57 85 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 60 83 59 86 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 59 84 59 86 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 53 82 51 85 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 80 54 83 / 10 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 56 82 55 84 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 59 83 59 85 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 56 82 53 84 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 56 82 52 83 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 60 83 59 85 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...63 / LONG TERM...55
000
FXUS64 KLZK 141701
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1201 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012
.AVIATION...
WILL MONITOR FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AT THIS TIME PROBABILITY IS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD 10 PERCENT ISOLATED TSTORM MENTION
TO PARTS OF WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. A SHRTWV TROUGH...ANALYZED ON
WATER VAPOR OVER OK THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT EAST AND ENCOUNTER
AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND WEAK CIN.
SIMILAR TO YDAY...EXPECT JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...BUT SVR STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...MODEST AMOUNTS
OF DCAPE PUSHING 800 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON COULD PROVIDE A FEW GUSTS
TO 40-50MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS. ATTM...THINK THAT ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY WEST OF THE LR METRO...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF THE METRO IN LATER
UPDATES. REST OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ARE OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING TO THE WEST OF THE STATE WILL
SPREAD SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE TERMINALS AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSES BUT NO IMPACT ON OPERATIONS IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG AROUND
SUNRISE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED REGION WIDE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE...GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT
BE MUGGY AS IS TYPICAL DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR...THANKS TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND A STEADY SUPPLY OF DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIR. RAINFALL WILL BE ABSENT AS WELL. A COUPLE OF UPPER IMPULSES
WILL PASS BY DURING THE PERIOD...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
THINK THAT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN SO WILL GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE THAT QUIET...ALBEIT VERY WARM...
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
IN FACT ONLY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WEAK
IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS LIKELY IN THE UNCOMFORTABLE BUT NOT THE
OPPRESSIVE RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 81 54 81 55 / 10 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 83 58 83 57 / 10 10 10 0
HARRISON AR 78 50 78 54 / 10 10 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 82 57 81 56 / 10 10 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 83 58 82 57 / 10 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 82 59 83 58 / 10 10 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 81 56 81 55 / 10 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 51 80 53 / 10 10 10 0
NEWPORT AR 82 56 81 56 / 10 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 82 58 82 58 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 55 82 55 / 10 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 82 56 81 56 / 10 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 82 58 82 58 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...99
000
FXUS64 KLZK 141522
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1022 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD 10 PERCENT ISOLATED TSTORM MENTION
TO PARTS OF WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. A SHRTWV TROUGH...ANALYZED ON
WATER VAPOR OVER OK THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT EAST AND ENCOUNTER
AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND WEAK CIN.
SIMILAR TO YDAY...EXPECT JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...BUT SVR STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...MODEST AMOUNTS
OF DCAPE PUSHING 800 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON COULD PROVIDE A FEW GUSTS
TO 40-50MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS. ATTM...THINK THAT ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY WEST OF THE LR METRO...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF THE METRO IN LATER
UPDATES. REST OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ARE OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING TO THE WEST OF THE STATE WILL
SPREAD SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE TERMINALS AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSES BUT NO IMPACT ON OPERATIONS IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG AROUND
SUNRISE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED REGION WIDE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE...GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT
BE MUGGY AS IS TYPICAL DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR...THANKS TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND A STEADY SUPPLY OF DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIR. RAINFALL WILL BE ABSENT AS WELL. A COUPLE OF UPPER IMPULSES
WILL PASS BY DURING THE PERIOD...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
THINK THAT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN SO WILL GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE THAT QUIET...ALBEIT VERY WARM...
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
IN FACT ONLY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WEAK
IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS LIKELY IN THE UNCOMFORTABLE BUT NOT THE
OPPRESSIVE RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 81 54 81 55 / 10 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 83 58 83 57 / 10 10 10 0
HARRISON AR 78 50 78 54 / 10 10 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 82 57 81 56 / 10 10 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 83 58 82 57 / 10 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 82 59 83 58 / 10 10 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 81 56 81 55 / 10 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 51 80 53 / 10 10 10 0
NEWPORT AR 82 56 81 56 / 10 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 82 58 82 58 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 55 82 55 / 10 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 82 56 81 56 / 10 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 82 58 82 58 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...63
| 
