[top]
000
FXUS61 KPHI 140422
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1122 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AND IT SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR OUR
REGION THURSDAY EVENING. BOTH LOWS SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME WEAK WAA ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH AND
ANOTHER ONE TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS ALLOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGH
AND EVEN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO COVER THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITH EVEN SOME THICKENING OCCURRING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT. THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER DRY, THEREFORE NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. SOME TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. THE THICKER CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT
ACROSS SOME AREAS AND THE LOWS WERE ADJUSTED UP A LITTLE. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST, KEEPING THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DURING THE DAY AS WELL. WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A
THICKENING OF THEM, BUT BEING THIS DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER THAN THE
ONE OVERNIGHT, IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANY IT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD GET
SOME AS FAR EAST AS NEW JERSEY AND SOUTH AS THE DELMARVA. BUT FOR
NOW WE ONLY HAVE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. DEPENDING
ON WHEN IT BEGINS, IT MAY BEGIN AS SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA,
THEN CHANGE OVER TO AND/OR MIX WITH RAIN. CURRENTLY, ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY MUCH, MAYBE A DUSTING OR A COUPLE
OF TENTHS OF AN INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
CARRY CLOUDS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY.
WE ARE EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ON THURSDAY
MORNING TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY LOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE CAPE COD VICINITY ON FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING.
IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH IN PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT THE ONSET TO RESULT IN SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BY LATE MORNING EVEN IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AS THE SECONDARY LOW PULLS AWAY FROM OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER TO SHOWERS. THE RAIN MAY END AS
A LITTLE SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF SOLUTION WITH STRONG LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT SEEMS OVERDONE.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE FIRST WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, AND
THE SECOND ONE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME VARIABLE OR
EVEN CALM FOR SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT, THEN A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TUESDAY AS A WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOWER SIDE AND WERE ONLY
INCLUDED FOR THE KRDG AND KABE AREAS FOR NOW. THE PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE THE CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK...
SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS MAY GUST IN THE LOWER 20S FOR A
PERIOD TONIGHT HOWEVER, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO
TUESDAY. WAVES ALONG THE WATERS SHOULD BE AROUND 2-3 FEET THROUGH
TUESDAY.
FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WIND SPEEDS
AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM OUR REGION AND AS COLD AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT, WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPHI 140228
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND
IT SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER OR
NEAR OUR REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING. BOTH LOWS SHOULD MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT, WHILE A NEARLY ZONAL WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A RETURN FLOW,
ALBEIT LIGHT, WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, BUT IS CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT WITH THE RETURN
FLOW, AND BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT FOR MOST PLACES.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
GUSTS DROPPING OFF, AND WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME VARIABLE OR
EVEN CALM FOR SOME AREAS BY SUNRISE. DID NOT MAKE ANY APPRECIABLE
CHANGES TO THE FCST, EXCEPT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST, KEEPING THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DURING THE DAY AS WELL. WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A
THICKENING OF THEM, BUT BEING THIS DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER THAN THE
ONE OVERNIGHT, IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANY IT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD GET
SOME AS FAR EAST AS NEW JERSEY AND SOUTH AS THE DELMARVA. BUT FOR
NOW WE ONLY HAVE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. DEPENDING
ON WHEN IT BEGINS, IT MAY BEGIN AS SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA,
THEN CHANGE OVER TO AND/OR MIX WITH RAIN. CURRENTLY, ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY MUCH, MAYBE A DUSTING OR A COUPLE
OF TENTHS OF AN INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
CARRY CLOUDS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY.
WE ARE EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ON THURSDAY
MORNING TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY LOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE CAPE COD VICINITY ON FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING.
IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH IN PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT THE ONSET TO RESULT IN SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BY LATE MORNING EVEN IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AS THE SECONDARY LOW PULLS AWAY FROM OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER TO SHOWERS. THE RAIN MAY END AS
A LITTLE SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF SOLUTION WITH STRONG LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT SEEMS OVERDONE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT, AND REMAIN TO OUR EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, AND
SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THE SECOND IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE SMALL ENOUGH THAT WE ONLY
INCLUDED THEM IN ABE/RDG WHERE THE CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS DROPPING OFF, AND WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME VARIABLE OR
EVEN CALM FOR SOME AREAS BY SUNRISE. A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES
OCCUR, IT COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS, BUT WE HAVE ONLY REFLECTED THIS
IN THE ABE/RDG TAF FOR THIS AFTERNOON`S TAF FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...
SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVERYWHERE AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS MAY GUSTS IN THE LOW 20S
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES ALONG THE WATERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2-3 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WIND SPEEDS
AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM OUR REGION AND AS COLD AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT, WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPHI 132046
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON
THURSDAY EVENING. BOTH LOWS SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT, WHILE A NEARLY ZONAL WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A RETURN FLOW,
ALBEIT LIGHT, WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, BUT IS CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT WITH THE RETURN
FLOW, AND BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT FOR MOST PLACES.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
GUSTS DROPPING OFF, AND WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME VARIABLE OR
EVEN CALM FOR SOME AREAS BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST, KEEPING THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DURING THE DAY AS WELL. WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A
THICKENING OF THEM, BUT BEING THIS DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER THAN THE
ONE OVERNIGHT, IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANY IT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD GET
SOME AS FAR EAST AS NEW JERSEY AND SOUTH AS THE DELMARVA. BUT FOR
NOW WE ONLY HAVE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. DEPENDING
ON WHEN IT BEGINS, IT MAY BEGIN AS SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA,
THEN CHANGE OVER TO AND/OR MIX WITH RAIN. CURRENTLY, ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY MUCH, MAYBE A DUSTING OR A COUPLE
OF TENTHS OF AN INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
CARRY CLOUDS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY.
WE ARE EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ON THURSDAY
MORNING TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY LOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE CAPE COD VICINITY ON FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING.
IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH IN PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT THE ONSET TO RESULT IN SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BY LATE MORNING EVEN IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AS THE SECONDARY LOW PULLS AWAY FROM OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER TO SHOWERS. THE RAIN MAY END AS
A LITTLE SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF SOLUTION WITH STRONG LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT SEEMS OVERDONE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT, AND REMAIN TO OUR EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, AND
SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THE SECOND IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE SMALL ENOUGH THAT WE ONLY
INCLUDED THEM IN ABE/RDG WHERE THE CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS DROPPING OFF, AND WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME VARIABLE OR
EVEN CALM FOR SOME AREAS BY SUNRISE. A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES
OCCUR, IT COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS, BUT WE HAVE ONLY REFLECTED THIS
IN THE ABE/RDG TAF FOR THIS AFTERNOON`S TAF FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...
SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVERYWHERE AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS MAY GUSTS IN THE LOW 20S
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES ALONG THE WATERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2-3 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WIND SPEEDS
AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM OUR REGION AND AS COLD AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT, WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPHI 131734
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY, AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BUT BE OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP NEAR OUR AREA AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
PRIMARY LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD
CLEAR OUR AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER COOL, BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY. THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER, ENOUGH WIND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE INVERSION FOR A TIME THAT SOME
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY AS THE VERTICAL MIXING
PEAKS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER AND THE MIXING
BECOMES GREATLY REDUCED.
THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY
USED A BLENDED MOS APPROACH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO OCCUR. A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY EASTWARD AND TOWARD OUR
AREA TONIGHT. THE CONTINUATION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. THE
LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, THEREFORE MAINLY JUST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE IT. THIS FEATURE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENERGY, AS IT MAY END UP BECOMING SHEARED WITH AN
EASTWARD EXTENT. IT WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN THE MODERATION OF THE
AIRMASS.
THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH,
THEREFORE NO FOG IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
TWEAKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST SYSTEM WE ARE LOOKING AT STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK, NOT
TERRIBLY MOIST AND PROGGED TO AFFECT US IN THE LATER TUESDAY TO
EARLIER WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. SOUNDINGS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHATEVER FALLS WOULD BE RAIN FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST, WHILE ONLY THE FAR NORTHWEST WOULD SEE NO
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN DURING THE "EVENT." WARMING OF THE COLUMN
GENERALLY WILL OCCUR WHILE WEAK 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS.
THE SECOND SYSTEM NOW LOOKS ALMOST CERTAINLY TO BE THE STRONGER OF
THE TWO. I MUST SAY THAT DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW ENERGY FROM
THE MID LEVEL PARENT TROUGH IS RESOLVED BETWEEN THE THREE LONG TERM
MODELS, THEY SHOW AN ATYPICAL SIMILARITY WITH REGARD TO THEIR
PRESSURE PATTERNS THIS FAR OUT. ALL OF THEM WOULD TAKE THEIR TRIPLE
POINT (IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE) OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THEY
ALL HAVE A RESPECTABLE UPPER JET GOING, AND THEY ALL CARRY A DECENT
IF NOT FRIGHTENING WIND FIELD. PRESSURE RISES IN OUR AREA BEHIND THE
SYSTEM, HOWEVER, AREN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN ANY OF THE MODELS DUE
IN LARGE PART TO THE LACK OF REALLY COLD AIR BEHIND IT. ALL THE
MODELS DO TAP THE GULF AND LOOK FAIRLY MOIST (THEY CARRY ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO MAKE THE 295K ISENTROPIC LEVEL THE ONE TO WATCH, HAVE
GOOD LOWER LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION, AND HAVE AN OBVIOUS TROWAL THAT
ALMOST STARTS TO WRAP INTO OUR AREA JUST AFTER THE DEEPENING
SECONDARY LOW BEGINS TO MAKE AN EXIT). POSITIVE MUCAPES TOUCH
HATTERAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY, AND THE ECMWF WOULD TAKE MUCAPES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE VIRGINIA DELMARVA.
NO DOUBT THIS AGREEMENT WILL ENDURE THROUGHOUT ALL SUBSEQUENT RUNS.
WE HAVE RAISED POPS FROM LOWER CHANCE TO HIGHER CHANCE, AND
WE`VE BUMPED UP WINDS A LITTLE BIT.
WE AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT. AFTER A GENERAL WARMING TREND IN ADVANCE OF THE SECOND
SYSTEM, SAID SYSTEM DOES USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR. IT IS NOT,
HOWEVER, ALL THAT COLD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE TAF
SITES. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY, MAINLY
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK SYSTEM. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO GUST AGAIN TODAY, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY,
GENERALLY AROUND 20 KNOTS.
AS MODIFICATION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM
FRONT, SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD ARRIVE AND THICKEN. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME AND LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT STILL
DON`T SEEM LIKELY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY, THEN MAY DETERIORATE LATER
THURSDAY TO MVFR AND THEN IFR. THEY WOULD RETURN BACK TO VFR ON
FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR A TIME AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY (PERHAPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY).
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG
SOUTHWARD AND THE SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NOTHERN WATERS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR
ABOVE 25 KNOTS, SO WE KEEP IT HERE THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE IN CASE WE HAVE TO EXTEND IT INTO THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE CLOSER TODAY AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS FARTHER AWAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO
MODIFY. WHILE THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXING TODAY,
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH VERTICAL MIXING FOR AWHILE TODAY TO RESULT IN
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
WATERS, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MORE MARGINAL AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE
ADVISORY FOR THIS POTENTIAL ATTM. OTHERWISE, THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME THROUGH TONIGHT AND TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.
WE THEN ARE FORECASTING SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. IT
PRESENTLY DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AS IT DEPARTS, AND WE AREN`T GOING TO FORECAST
SWELLS FROM THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
THE SECOND SYSTEM REMAINS A GOOD BET TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND THERE
PRESENTLY SEEMS TO BE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD
OF GALES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450- 451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/HAYES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DELISI
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/DELISI/GORSE/HAYES
MARINE...ROBERTSON/DELISI/GORSE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 131734
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY, AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BUT BE OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP NEAR OUR AREA AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
PRIMARY LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD
CLEAR OUR AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER COOL, BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY. THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER, ENOUGH WIND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE INVERSION FOR A TIME THAT SOME
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY AS THE VERTICAL MIXING
PEAKS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER AND THE MIXING
BECOMES GREATLY REDUCED.
THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY
USED A BLENDED MOS APPROACH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO OCCUR. A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY EASTWARD AND TOWARD OUR
AREA TONIGHT. THE CONTINUATION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. THE
LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, THEREFORE MAINLY JUST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE IT. THIS FEATURE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENERGY, AS IT MAY END UP BECOMING SHEARED WITH AN
EASTWARD EXTENT. IT WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN THE MODERATION OF THE
AIRMASS.
THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH,
THEREFORE NO FOG IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
TWEAKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST SYSTEM WE ARE LOOKING AT STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK, NOT
TERRIBLY MOIST AND PROGGED TO AFFECT US IN THE LATER TUESDAY TO
EARLIER WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. SOUNDINGS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHATEVER FALLS WOULD BE RAIN FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST, WHILE ONLY THE FAR NORTHWEST WOULD SEE NO
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN DURING THE "EVENT." WARMING OF THE COLUMN
GENERALLY WILL OCCUR WHILE WEAK 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS.
THE SECOND SYSTEM NOW LOOKS ALMOST CERTAINLY TO BE THE STRONGER OF
THE TWO. I MUST SAY THAT DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW ENERGY FROM
THE MID LEVEL PARENT TROUGH IS RESOLVED BETWEEN THE THREE LONG TERM
MODELS, THEY SHOW AN ATYPICAL SIMILARITY WITH REGARD TO THEIR
PRESSURE PATTERNS THIS FAR OUT. ALL OF THEM WOULD TAKE THEIR TRIPLE
POINT (IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE) OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THEY
ALL HAVE A RESPECTABLE UPPER JET GOING, AND THEY ALL CARRY A DECENT
IF NOT FRIGHTENING WIND FIELD. PRESSURE RISES IN OUR AREA BEHIND THE
SYSTEM, HOWEVER, AREN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN ANY OF THE MODELS DUE
IN LARGE PART TO THE LACK OF REALLY COLD AIR BEHIND IT. ALL THE
MODELS DO TAP THE GULF AND LOOK FAIRLY MOIST (THEY CARRY ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO MAKE THE 295K ISENTROPIC LEVEL THE ONE TO WATCH, HAVE
GOOD LOWER LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION, AND HAVE AN OBVIOUS TROWAL THAT
ALMOST STARTS TO WRAP INTO OUR AREA JUST AFTER THE DEEPENING
SECONDARY LOW BEGINS TO MAKE AN EXIT). POSITIVE MUCAPES TOUCH
HATTERAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY, AND THE ECMWF WOULD TAKE MUCAPES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE VIRGINIA DELMARVA.
NO DOUBT THIS AGREEMENT WILL ENDURE THROUGHOUT ALL SUBSEQUENT RUNS.
WE HAVE RAISED POPS FROM LOWER CHANCE TO HIGHER CHANCE, AND
WE`VE BUMPED UP WINDS A LITTLE BIT.
WE AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT. AFTER A GENERAL WARMING TREND IN ADVANCE OF THE SECOND
SYSTEM, SAID SYSTEM DOES USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR. IT IS NOT,
HOWEVER, ALL THAT COLD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE TAF
SITES. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY, MAINLY
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK SYSTEM. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO GUST AGAIN TODAY, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY,
GENERALLY AROUND 20 KNOTS.
AS MODIFICATION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM
FRONT, SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD ARRIVE AND THICKEN. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME AND LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT STILL
DON`T SEEM LIKELY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY, THEN MAY DETERIORATE LATER
THURSDAY TO MVFR AND THEN IFR. THEY WOULD RETURN BACK TO VFR ON
FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR A TIME AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY (PERHAPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY).
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG
SOUTHWARD AND THE SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NOTHERN WATERS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR
ABOVE 25 KNOTS, SO WE KEEP IT HERE THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE IN CASE WE HAVE TO EXTEND IT INTO THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE CLOSER TODAY AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS FARTHER AWAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO
MODIFY. WHILE THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXING TODAY,
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH VERTICAL MIXING FOR AWHILE TODAY TO RESULT IN
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
WATERS, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MORE MARGINAL AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE
ADVISORY FOR THIS POTENTIAL ATTM. OTHERWISE, THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME THROUGH TONIGHT AND TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.
WE THEN ARE FORECASTING SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. IT
PRESENTLY DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AS IT DEPARTS, AND WE AREN`T GOING TO FORECAST
SWELLS FROM THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
THE SECOND SYSTEM REMAINS A GOOD BET TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND THERE
PRESENTLY SEEMS TO BE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD
OF GALES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450- 451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/HAYES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DELISI
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/DELISI/GORSE/HAYES
MARINE...ROBERTSON/DELISI/GORSE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 131435
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY, AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BUT BE OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP NEAR OUR AREA AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
PRIMARY LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD
CLEAR OUR AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER COOL, BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY. THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER, ENOUGH WIND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE INVERSION FOR A TIME THAT SOME
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY AS THE VERTICAL MIXING
PEAKS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER AND THE MIXING
BECOMES GREATLY REDUCED.
THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY
USED A BLENDED MOS APPROACH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO OCCUR. A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY EASTWARD AND TOWARD OUR
AREA TONIGHT. THE CONTINUATION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. THE
LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, THEREFORE MAINLY JUST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE IT. THIS FEATURE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENERGY, AS IT MAY END UP BECOMING SHEARED WITH AN
EASTWARD EXTENT. IT WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN THE MODERATION OF THE
AIRMASS.
THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH,
THEREFORE NO FOG IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
TWEAKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST SYSTEM WE ARE LOOKING AT STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK, NOT
TERRIBLY MOIST AND PROGGED TO AFFECT US IN THE LATER TUESDAY TO
EARLIER WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. SOUNDINGS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHATEVER FALLS WOULD BE RAIN FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST, WHILE ONLY THE FAR NORTHWEST WOULD SEE NO
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN DURING THE "EVENT." WARMING OF THE COLUMN
GENERALLY WILL OCCUR WHILE WEAK 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS.
THE SECOND SYSTEM NOW LOOKS ALMOST CERTAINLY TO BE THE STRONGER OF
THE TWO. I MUST SAY THAT DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW ENERGY FROM
THE MID LEVEL PARENT TROUGH IS RESOLVED BETWEEN THE THREE LONG TERM
MODELS, THEY SHOW AN ATYPICAL SIMILARITY WITH REGARD TO THEIR
PRESSURE PATTERNS THIS FAR OUT. ALL OF THEM WOULD TAKE THEIR TRIPLE
POINT (IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE) OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THEY
ALL HAVE A RESPECTABLE UPPER JET GOING, AND THEY ALL CARRY A DECENT
IF NOT FRIGHTENING WIND FIELD. PRESSURE RISES IN OUR AREA BEHIND THE
SYSTEM, HOWEVER, AREN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN ANY OF THE MODELS DUE
IN LARGE PART TO THE LACK OF REALLY COLD AIR BEHIND IT. ALL THE
MODELS DO TAP THE GULF AND LOOK FAIRLY MOIST (THEY CARRY ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO MAKE THE 295K ISENTROPIC LEVEL THE ONE TO WATCH, HAVE
GOOD LOWER LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION, AND HAVE AN OBVIOUS TROWAL THAT
ALMOST STARTS TO WRAP INTO OUR AREA JUST AFTER THE DEEPENING
SECONDARY LOW BEGINS TO MAKE AN EXIT). POSITIVE MUCAPES TOUCH
HATTERAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY, AND THE ECMWF WOULD TAKE MUCAPES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE VIRGINIA DELMARVA.
NO DOUBT THIS AGREEMENT WILL ENDURE THROUGHOUT ALL SUBSEQUENT RUNS.
WE HAVE RAISED POPS FROM LOWER CHANCE TO HIGHER CHANCE, AND
WE`VE BUMPED UP WINDS A LITTLE BIT.
WE AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT. AFTER A GENERAL WARMING TREND IN ADVANCE OF THE SECOND
SYSTEM, SAID SYSTEM DOES USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR. IT IS NOT,
HOWEVER, ALL THAT COLD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE TAF
SITES. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY, MAINLY
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK SYSTEM. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO GUST AGAIN TODAY, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY,
GENERALLY AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.
AS MODIFICATION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM
FRONT, SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD ARRIVE AND THICKEN. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME AND LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT STILL
DON`T SEEM LIKELY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY, THEN MAY DETERIORATE LATER
THURSDAY TO MVFR AND THEN IFR. THEY WOULD RETURN BACK TO VFR ON
FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR A TIME AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY (PERHAPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY).
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS HERE, BUT HAVE DROPPED
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE UPPER BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE CLOSER TODAY AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS FARTHER AWAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO
MODIFY. WHILE THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXING TODAY,
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH VERTICAL MIXING FOR AWHILE TODAY TO RESULT IN
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
WATERS, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MORE MARGINAL AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE
ADVISORY FOR THIS POTENTIAL ATTM. OTHERWISE, THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME THROUGH TONIGHT AND TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.
WE THEN ARE FORECASTING SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. IT
PRESENTLY DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AS IT DEPARTS, AND WE AREN`T GOING TO FORECAST
SWELLS FROM THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
THE SECOND SYSTEM REMAINS A GOOD BET TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND THERE
PRESENTLY SEEMS TO BE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD
OF GALES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ025-
026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/HAYES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DELISI
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/DELISI/GORSE/HAYES
MARINE...ROBERTSON/DELISI/GORSE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 131122
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
622 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY, AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BUT BE OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP NEAR OUR AREA AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
PRIMARY LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD
CLEAR OUR AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED NEAR THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO. AN UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS PLACED A TROUGH IN THE WEST TO THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE WERE SEVERAL AREAS
OF FOCUSED 850 MB WAA FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
A 300 MB JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WITH ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SHIFTING AS A STRONG
CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY, ALLOWING THE
TROUGH IN THE EAST TO WEAKEN. AS THIS OCCURS, TROUGHING IN THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE FLOW ACROSS
THE EAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. AN ARCTIC FRONT UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WILL STAY THERE BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS ALSO RETREATS. THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL BE
MODIFYING AS A RESULT TODAY. THE COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITH SOME
WARMING OCCURRING ABOVE IT AND A LOWERING INVERSION THIS MORNING
WAS KEEPING AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER A GOOD PART OF THE
AREA. THE CLOUD BASES HAVE LOWERED SOME AS THE INVERSION ALSO
LOWERS. THE MOIST LAYER CONTINUES TO GET SQUEEZED THOUGH AND THIS
IS RESULTING IN THE STRATOCUMULUS DISSIPATING OR SHRINKING NORTH
AND WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EDGING CLOSER, WE WILL GO WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SKY COVER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED A BIT BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER, ENOUGH WIND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE INVERSION FOR A TIME THAT SOME GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ESPECIALLY AS THE VERTICAL MIXING PEAKS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER AND THE MIXING BECOMES GREATLY REDUCED.
THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY
USED A BLENDED MOS APPROACH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO OCCUR. A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY EASTWARD AND TOWARD OUR
AREA TONIGHT. THE CONTINUATION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. THE
LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, THEREFORE MAINLY JUST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE IT. THIS FEATURE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENERGY, AS IT MAY END UP BECOMING SHEARED WITH AN
EASTWARD EXTENT. IT WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN THE MODERATION OF THE
AIRMASS.
THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH,
THEREFORE NO FOG IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
TWEAKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST SYSTEM WE ARE LOOKING AT STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK, NOT
TERRIBLY MOIST AND PROGGED TO AFFECT US IN THE LATER TUESDAY TO
EARLIER WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. SOUNDINGS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHATEVER FALLS WOULD BE RAIN FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST, WHILE ONLY THE FAR NORTHWEST WOULD SEE NO
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN DURING THE "EVENT." WARMING OF THE COLUMN
GENERALLY WILL OCCUR WHILE WEAK 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS.
THE SECOND SYSTEM NOW LOOKS ALMOST CERTAINLY TO BE THE STRONGER OF
THE TWO. I MUST SAY THAT DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW ENERGY FROM
THE MID LEVEL PARENT TROUGH IS RESOLVED BETWEEN THE THREE LONG TERM
MODELS, THEY SHOW AN ATYPICAL SIMILARITY WITH REGARD TO THEIR
PRESSURE PATTERNS THIS FAR OUT. ALL OF THEM WOULD TAKE THEIR TRIPLE
POINT (IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE) OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THEY
ALL HAVE A RESPECTABLE UPPER JET GOING, AND THEY ALL CARRY A DECENT
IF NOT FRIGHTENING WIND FIELD. PRESSURE RISES IN OUR AREA BEHIND THE
SYSTEM, HOWEVER, AREN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN ANY OF THE MODELS DUE
IN LARGE PART TO THE LACK OF REALLY COLD AIR BEHIND IT. ALL THE
MODELS DO TAP THE GULF AND LOOK FAIRLY MOIST (THEY CARRY ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO MAKE THE 295K ISENTROPIC LEVEL THE ONE TO WATCH, HAVE
GOOD LOWER LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION, AND HAVE AN OBVIOUS TROWAL THAT
ALMOST STARTS TO WRAP INTO OUR AREA JUST AFTER THE DEEPENING
SECONDARY LOW BEGINS TO MAKE AN EXIT). POSITIVE MUCAPES TOUCH
HATTERAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY, AND THE ECMWF WOULD TAKE MUCAPES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE VIRGINIA DELMARVA.
NO DOUBT THIS AGREEMENT WILL ENDURE THROUGHOUT ALL SUBSEQUENT RUNS.
WE HAVE RAISED POPS FROM LOWER CHANCE TO HIGHER CHANCE, AND
WE`VE BUMPED UP WINDS A LITTLE BIT.
WE AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT. AFTER A GENERAL WARMING TREND IN ADVANCE OF THE SECOND
SYSTEM, SAID SYSTEM DOES USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR. IT IS NOT,
HOWEVER, ALL THAT COLD.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR AWHILE TODAY,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS HAVE LESSENED EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THERE STILL
REMAINS ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING TO KEEP SOME GUSTS AT A FEW OF THE
TERMINALS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AS THE VERTICAL MIXING DEEPENS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
MODIFYING AND HIGH PRESSURE EDGES CLOSER, THEREFORE THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST OR EVEN LOCALLY SOUTHWEST.
THE COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAINTAINED A
DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS DOWN INTO OUR AREA EARLIER THIS
MORNING UNDER AN INVERSION. THERE IS ENOUGH DRIER AIR FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE MORNING TO ERODE THESE CLOUDS, AND
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE THINNING AND RETREATING OF THE
STRATOCUMULUS IS ONGOING. THE LOWERING INVERSION HAS ALSO ALLOWED
THE CEILINGS TO LOWER A BIT BUT VFR IS STILL EXPECTED. THE
REMAINING BROKEN/OVERCAST DECK IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT BY 14Z.
OTHERWISE, SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM. AS MODIFICATION CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT, SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD ARRIVE AND THICKEN.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT STILL
DON`T SEEM LIKELY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY, THEN MAY DETERIORATE LATER
THURSDAY TO MVFR AND THEN IFR. THEY WOULD RETURN BACK TO VFR ON
FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR A TIME AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY (PERHAPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY).
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE CLOSER TODAY AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS FARTHER AWAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO
MODIFY. WHILE THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXING TODAY,
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH VERTICAL MIXING FOR AWHILE TODAY TO RESULT IN
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. OUR CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE REGARDING
HOW QUICKLY THIS ENDS, HOWEVER BASED ON SOME LOWERING OF THE
INVERSION IT SHOULD TAKE PLACE SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CARRY THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OUR
WATERS UNTIL 15Z TODAY FOR NOW. THERE COULD BE A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD
OF NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN WATERS, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MORE MARGINAL AND WILL NOT
EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR THIS POTENTIAL ATTM. OTHERWISE, THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME THROUGH TONIGHT AND TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.
WE THEN ARE FORECASTING SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. IT
PRESENTLY DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AS IT DEPARTS, AND WE AREN`T GOING TO FORECAST
SWELLS FROM THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
THE SECOND SYSTEM REMAINS A GOOD BET TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND THERE
PRESENTLY SEEMS TO BE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD
OF GALES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/HAYES
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DELISI
AVIATION...DELISI/GORSE/HAYES
MARINE...DELISI/GORSE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 130942
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
442 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY, AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BUT BE OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP NEAR OUR AREA AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
PRIMARY LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD
CLEAR OUR AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED NEAR THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WITH LOW
PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A TROUGH
IN THE WEST TO THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THERE WERE SEVERAL AREAS OF FOCUSED 850 MB WAA FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A 300 MB JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SHIFTING AS A STRONG
CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY, ALLOWING THE
TROUGH IN THE EAST TO WEAKEN. AS THIS OCCURS, TROUGHING IN THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE FLOW ACROSS
THE EAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. AN ARCTIC FRONT UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WILL STAY THERE BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS ALSO RETREATS. THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL BE
MODIFYING AS A RESULT TODAY. THE COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITH SOME
WARMING OCCURRING ABOVE IT AND A LOWERING INVERSION THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN KEEPING AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
AS THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK AND THE INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS SOME
MORE, THE MOIST LAYER WILL TEND TO GET SQUEEZED. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN THE STRATOCUMULUS DISSIPATING OR SHRINKING NORTH AND
WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE WILL GO WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. SOME
TWEAKS MAY BE NEEDED THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
STRATOCUMULUS THINS.
THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER, ENOUGH WIND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE INVERSION FOR A TIME THAT SOME GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ESPECIALLY AS THE VERTICAL MIXING PEAKS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER AND THE MIXING BECOMES GREATLY REDUCED.
THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY
USED A BLENDED MOS APPROACH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO OCCUR. A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY EASTWARD AND TOWARD OUR
AREA TONIGHT. THE CONTINUATION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. THE
LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, THEREFORE MAINLY JUST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE IT. THIS FEATURE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENERGY, AS IT MAY END UP BECOMING SHEARED WITH AN
EASTWARD EXTENT. IT WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN THE MODERATION OF THE
AIRMASS.
THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH,
THEREFORE NO FOG IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
TWEAKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST SYSTEM WE ARE LOOKING AT STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK, NOT
TERRIBLY MOIST AND PROGGED TO AFFECT US IN THE LATER TUESDAY TO
EARLIER WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. SOUNDINGS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHATEVER FALLS WOULD BE RAIN FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST, WHILE ONLY THE FAR NORTHWEST WOULD SEE NO
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN DURING THE "EVENT." WARMING OF THE COLUMN
GENERALLY WILL OCCUR WHILE WEAK 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS.
THE SECOND SYSTEM NOW LOOKS ALMOST CERTAINLY TO BE THE STRONGER OF
THE TWO. I MUST SAY THAT DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW ENERGY FROM
THE MID LEVEL PARENT TROUGH IS RESOLVED BETWEEN THE THREE LONG TERM
MODELS, THEY SHOW AN ATYPICAL SIMILARITY WITH REGARD TO THEIR
PRESSURE PATTERNS THIS FAR OUT. ALL OF THEM WOULD TAKE THEIR TRIPLE
POINT (IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE) OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THEY
ALL HAVE A RESPECTABLE UPPER JET GOING, AND THEY ALL CARRY A DECENT
IF NOT FRIGHTENING WIND FIELD. PRESSURE RISES IN OUR AREA BEHIND THE
SYSTEM, HOWEVER, AREN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN ANY OF THE MODELS DUE
IN LARGE PART TO THE LACK OF REALLY COLD AIR BEHIND IT. ALL THE
MODELS DO TAP THE GULF AND LOOK FAIRLY MOIST (THEY CARRY ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO MAKE THE 295K ISENTROPIC LEVEL THE ONE TO WATCH, HAVE
GOOD LOWER LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION, AND HAVE AN OBVIOUS TROWAL THAT
ALMOST STARTS TO WRAP INTO OUR AREA JUST AFTER THE DEEPENING
SECONDARY LOW BEGINS TO MAKE AN EXIT). POSITIVE MUCAPES TOUCH
HATTERAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY, AND THE ECMWF WOULD TAKE MUCAPES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE VIRGINIA DELMARVA.
NO DOUBT THIS AGREEMENT WILL ENDURE THROUGHOUT ALL SUBSEQUENT RUNS.
WE HAVE RAISED POPS FROM LOWER CHANCE TO HIGHER CHANCE, AND
WE`VE BUMPED UP WINDS A LITTLE BIT.
WE AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT. AFTER A GENERAL WARMING TREND IN ADVANCE OF THE SECOND
SYSTEM, SAID SYSTEM DOES USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR. IT IS NOT,
HOWEVER, ALL THAT COLD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR AWHILE TODAY,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS HAVE LESSENED SOME EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THERE STILL
REMAINS ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING TO KEEP SOME GUSTS AT A FEW OF THE
TERMINALS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AS THE VERTICAL MIXING DEEPENS ONCE AGAIN,
WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFYING
AND HIGH PRESSURE EDGES CLOSER, THEREFORE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST OR EVEN LOCALLY SOUTHWEST.
THE COLD AIRMASS AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS DOWN INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED SOME WITHIN A RIBBON OF MOISTURE BEING
TRAPPED UNDER A GRADUALLY LOWERING INVERSION. THERE IS ENOUGH DRY
AIR FORECAST TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE MORNING TO ERODE THESE CLOUDS,
BUT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS WE HELD ONTO A VFR CEILING LONGER
MAINLY FROM THE PHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE SCATTERING THEM OUT. OTHERWISE, SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM. AS
MODIFICATION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM
FRONT, SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD ARRIVE AND THICKEN.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT STILL
DON`T SEEM LIKELY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY, THEN MAY DETERIORATE LATER
THURSDAY TO MVFR AND THEN IFR. THEY WOULD RETURN BACK TO VFR ON
FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR A TIME AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY (PERHAPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY).
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE CLOSER TODAY AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS FARTHER AWAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO
MODIFY. WHILE THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXING TODAY,
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH VERTICAL MIXING FOR AWHILE TODAY TO RESULT IN
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. OUR CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE REGARDING
HOW QUICKLY THIS ENDS, HOWEVER BASED ON SOME LOWERING OF THE
INVERSION IT SHOULD TAKE PLACE SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CARRY THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OUR
WATERS UNTIL 15Z TODAY FOR NOW. THERE COULD BE A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD
OF NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN WATERS, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MORE MARGINAL AND WILL NOT
EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR THIS POTENTIAL ATTM. OTHERWISE, THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME THROUGH TONIGHT AND TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.
WE THEN ARE FORECASTING SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. IT
PRESENTLY DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AS IT DEPARTS, AND WE AREN`T GOING TO FORECAST
SWELLS FROM THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
THE SECOND SYSTEM REMAINS A GOOD BET TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND THERE
PRESENTLY SEEMS TO BE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD
OF GALES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAYES/DELISI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DELISI
AVIATION...GORSE/HAYES/DELISI
MARINE...GORSE/DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPHI 130545
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1245 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THEN LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ITS MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER WEATHER NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE BAND OF MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE ENHANCED FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES HAS CARRIED THE STRATOCUMULUS FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO A GOOD PART OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE
ENHANCED SOME BY A GRADUALLY LOWERING INVERSION, WHICH IS HELPING
TO TRAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE. THERE ARE SOME WEAK RETURNS SHOWING
UP ON RADAR, THEREFORE PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES MAY STILL BE
OCCURRING MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN PA INTO WESTERN NJ. THE
WINDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING UP AT MANY LOCALES, AND THIS COMBINED WITH
THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH SO FAR.
THEREFORE, THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED WITH SOME BLENDING IN OF
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE.
THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THAT THE THERMAL TROF IS
THROUGH. CLOUDINESS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATICAL, SO CONFIDENCE ABOUT
THOSE GRIDS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY, GIVING US MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHILE THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS WELL. THIS SHOULD CUT OFF THE
STRONG LAKE EFFECT FLOW FOR OUR AREA, AND WITH NO SHORT WAVES/VORT
MAXES EXPECTED, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE MONDAY, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO SYSTEMS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PERIOD STARTS FAIRLY WARM...BUT COOLS DOWN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ANY LEFTOVER CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD MELT AWAY MONDAY
EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO BACK OFF...AS HIGH PRESSURE DUCKS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY NOT GO CALM...AS THE THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY FLOW TO PREVENT THIS. CLEAR SKIES IN
THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY OF INCREASING HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD PREVENT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...AND LOWS WERE GENERALLY BASED ON A MOS BLEND.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TUESDAY WILL GO INTO
MOISTENING THE COLUMN...AND THE 1200 UTC GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE INITIALLY DRY AIR. AS
SUCH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. WINDS WILL START TO BACK AHEAD
OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT SNAKING EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THIS COULD KEEP COASTAL WATERS FROM WARMING...BUT ELSEWHERE HIGHS
WERE GENERALLY BASED ON A MOS BLEND.
WHILE THE MASS FIELDS FOR THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE...THE 1200 UTC IS FLATTER AND WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE WAVE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE (WITH A 35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT?)...BUT IS IT UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH
OF THIS WILL GO INTO PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. FOR NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS...WITH THE
BEST OVERRUNNING POTENTIAL
THE COLUMN IS COLD THROUGH MUCH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
OVERRUNNING...BUT A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY CAUSE SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST PROBLEMS. AGAIN...IT IS UNCLEAR JUST HOW
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS COULD BE LIGHT SNOW. LOWS WERE GENERALLY BASED
ON THE WARMER NAM MOS NUMBERS.
A SURFACE WAVE LOOKS TO FORM ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE BEST DEEPENING SHOULD
OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION (AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST
OF THE COOL SEASON). THUS...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MORNING. THE GRADIENT COULD INCREASE ENOUGH ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW TO ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD ALSO AID IN CLEARING.
AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE SECOND PRECIPITATION
EVENT STARTS TO DEVELOP. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THIS EVENT
APPEARS TO BE STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED...AGAIN WITH THE WARM
FRONT AS THE FOCUS. UNLIKE TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE COLUMN WILL
BE IN THE PROCESS OF WARMING...AND THIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST AREAS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
MAIN HOLDOUT IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE 1200 ECMWF...WHICH IS SLOWER
WITH THE MAIN PUNCH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND COULD BE SLOWER TO
WARM THE COLUMN.
AT ANY RATE...THE HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH OF QPF FOR AREAS THAT COULD BE
COLD ENOUGH AT THE START FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...THIS
DOES NOT LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TRANSITORY...AS HEIGHTS START TO
RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR AWHILE TODAY,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS HAVE LESSENED SOME EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THERE STILL
REMAINS ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING TO KEEP SOME GUSTS AT SOME OF THE
TERMINALS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AS THE VERTICAL MIXING DEEPENS ONCE AGAIN,
WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
MODIFYING, THEREFORE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THEY SHIFT TO
THE WEST OR EVEN LOCALLY SOUTHWEST.
THE COLD AIRMASS AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS DOWN INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED SOME WITH A RIBBON OF MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED
UNDER A GRADUAL LOWERING INVERSION. THERE IS ENOUGH DRY AIR FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE MORNING TO ERODE THESE CLOUDS, BUT BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS WE HELD ONTO A VFR CEILING LONGER AT MOST OF OUR
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING THEM OUT. OTHERWISE,
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS MODIFIES. AS THIS MODIFICATION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT, SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
IT IS NOT CLEAR JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO
MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT BISECTS THE AREA. IF PRECIPITATION
DOES DEVELOP...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LONG SHOT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT AND MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT TIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A 3 TO 6 HOUR POSSIBILITY AT MOST.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO
MVFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WINDS ASSUME PRE WARM FRONTAL
DIRECTIONS. MOST MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WARM FRONT...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THIS COULD
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN LOWERED TO A SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORY AS THE
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY COMING DOWN. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MIXING
OCCURRING GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HOWEVER AN INVERSION IS
FORECAST TO LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. FOR NOW, WE RAN THE ADVISORY
THROUGH 12Z TODAY ON DELAWARE BAY AND 15Z TODAY ON THE OCEAN ZONES.
WE MAY TWEAK THESE ENDING TIMES WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AROUND 330 AM.
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE SLACKENING MONDAY EVENING...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
VALUES IN GUSTS MONDAY EVENING.. EVEN THIS BACKS OFF LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT CLEAR
WHETHER THE FRONT ACTUALLY GETS NORTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE A WAVE DEVELOPS ON IT. IN ANY CASE...THE GRADIENT
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE LOOK FAIRLY WEAK
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE DEEPENS NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE GRADIENT
ON THE BACK SIDE COULD GET CLOSE TO BEING ABLE TO SUPPORT SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. THIS LOOKS
FAIRLY TRANSITORY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING...AGAIN WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE WATERS. THE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER...AS IT
USUALLY THE CASE DURING WARM AIR ADVECTION SCENARIOS...THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THIS CAN OCCUR.
MID RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP ON THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY. THE BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION PROBABLY OCCURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL SUPPORT GALE
FORE WINDS...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAYES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...HAYES
AVIATION...GORSE/HAYES
MARINE...GORSE/HAYES/ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPHI 130158
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ITS MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER WEATHER NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR CWA ARE STARTING TO RUN ON FUMES. THIS
SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH THE RECENT HRRR RUNS, THE WRF-NMMB INCREASING
THE SHEAR BELOW 850MB AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING. SO WE
PRETTY MUCH ARE NOT EXTENDING THAT MENTION OF FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MUCH BEYOND 03Z. WE DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THE POCONOS SLIGHTLY LONGER, BUT EVEN THERE ONE SPOTTER TOLD US HE
IS STARTING TO SEE STARS NOW.
THE 00Z UA ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THAT THE THERMAL TROF IS THROUGH
AND WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT, DID NOT
CHANGE MIN TEMPS MUCH. CLOUDINESS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATICAL AS IT
IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. SO CONFIDENCE ABOUT THOSE GRIDS
ARE NOT AS HIGH AS OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL INTO NORTHERN CANADA. WINDS MAY
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT, BUT THE STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TO DROP.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT FEEL NOT QUITE AS
COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY, GIVING US MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHILE THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS WELL. THIS SHOULD CUT OFF THE
STRONG LAKE EFFECT FLOW FOR OUR AREA, AND WITH NO SHORT WAVES/VORT
MAXES EXPECTED, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE MONDAY, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO SYSTEMS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PERIOD STARTS FAIRLY WARM...BUT COOLS DOWN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ANY LEFTOVER CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD MELT AWAY MONDAY
EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO BACK OFF...AS HIGH PRESSURE DUCKS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY NOT GO CALM...AS THE THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY FLOW TO PREVENT THIS. CLEAR SKIES IN
THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY OF INCREASING HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD PREVENT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...AND LOWS WERE GENERALLY BASED ON A MOS BLEND.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TUESDAY WILL GO INTO
MOISTENING THE COLUMN...AND THE 1200 UTC GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE INITIALLY DRY AIR. AS
SUCH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. WINDS WILL START TO BACK AHEAD
OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT SNAKING EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THIS COULD KEEP COASTAL WATERS FROM WARMING...BUT ELSEWHERE HIGHS
WERE GENERALLY BASED ON A MOS BLEND.
WHILE THE MASS FIELDS FOR THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE...THE 1200 UTC IS FLATTER AND WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE WAVE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE (WITH A 35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT?)...BUT IS IT UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH
OF THIS WILL GO INTO PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. FOR NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS...WITH THE
BEST OVERRUNNING POTENTIAL
THE COLUMN IS COLD THROUGH MUCH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
OVERRUNNING...BUT A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY CAUSE SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST PROBLEMS. AGAIN...IT IS UNCLEAR JUST HOW
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS COULD BE LIGHT SNOW. LOWS WERE GENERALLY BASED
ON THE WARMER NAM MOS NUMBERS.
A SURFACE WAVE LOOKS TO FORM ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE BEST DEEPENING SHOULD
OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION (AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST
OF THE COOL SEASON). THUS...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MORNING. THE GRADIENT COULD INCREASE ENOUGH ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW TO ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD ALSO AID IN CLEARING.
AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE SECOND PRECIPITATION
EVENT STARTS TO DEVELOP. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THIS EVENT
APPEARS TO BE STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED...AGAIN WITH THE WARM
FRONT AS THE FOCUS. UNLIKE TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE COLUMN WILL
BE IN THE PROCESS OF WARMING...AND THIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST AREAS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
MAIN HOLDOUT IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE 1200 ECMWF...WHICH IS SLOWER
WITH THE MAIN PUNCH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND COULD BE SLOWER TO
WARM THE COLUMN.
AT ANY RATE...THE HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH OF QPF FOR AREAS THAT COULD BE
COLD ENOUGH AT THE START FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...THIS
DOES NOT LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TRANSITORY...AS HEIGHTS START TO
RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE LATEST TAFS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING 30 PLUS KNOT WIND GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE. THE SUGGESTED
GUSTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT HOT, SO WE WERE NOT AS ROBUST AS
THEIR SUGGESTIONS. WE KEPT A TRANSITION ZONE OF WEAKER WIND GUSTS
LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING THEM OVERNIGHT.
AS FAR AS THE VFR CIGS GO, THE TREND TOWARD LESS IS CONTINUED THIS
EVENING LINGERING IT THE LONGEST AT KABE AND THEN KRDG AND KTTN.
THE DEVELOPING FORECAST INVERSION WE BELIEVE WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TRAP A VFR CIG BELOW IT AT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
ON MONDAY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. THE LATEST
SOUNDING FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH TO DEVELOP
ANY HOME GROWN CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS. WE CARRIED A BIT OF
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EXITING THE ROCKIES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ONCE THE SUN RISES AND MIXING STARTS AGAIN.
WHILE IT WILL BE WINDY, PEAK WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE DOWN FROM
TODAY, GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THE GUSTINESS WITH THIS
EVENT SHOULD BE GONE FOR GOOD ONCE THE SUN SETS AS PER THE 30HR
KPHL TAF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS VFR. HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. IT
IS NOT CLEAR JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT BISECTS THE AREA. IF PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A
LONG SHOT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT AND MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT TIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A 3 TO 6 HOUR POSSIBILITY AT MOST.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO
MVFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WINDS ASSUME PRE WARM FRONTAL
DIRECTIONS. MOST MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WARM FRONT...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THIS COULD
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE GALE WARNING UP AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS SINCE WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING IN THE LOW 30S ACROSS
THE LAND AND AT A FEW BUOYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING
GALE FORCE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE GALE
WARNING GETS CANCELLED OR IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REPLACE IT. ONCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ISSUED,
IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 25-30 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE SLACKENING MONDAY EVENING...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
VALUES IN GUSTS MONDAY EVENING.. EVEN THIS BACKS OFF LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT CLEAR
WHETHER THE FRONT ACTUALLY GETS NORTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE A WAVE DEVELOPS ON IT. IN ANY CASE...THE GRADIENT
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE LOOK FAIRLY WEAK
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE DEEPENS NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE GRADIENT
ON THE BACK SIDE COULD GET CLOSE TO BEING ABLE TO SUPPORT SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. THIS LOOKS
FAIRLY TRANSITORY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING...AGAIN WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE WATERS. THE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER...AS IT
USUALLY THE CASE DURING WARM AIR ADVECTION SCENARIOS...THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THIS CAN OCCUR.
MID RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP ON THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY. THE BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION PROBABLY OCCURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL SUPPORT GALE
FORE WINDS...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA GOT CLOSE TO BLOW OUT TIDES WITH THE
LAST LOW TIDE (WITHIN A COUPLE OF TENTHS). BEING THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, TIDES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO THE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS,
BUT THE LOW TIDE OVERNIGHT MAY STILL BE CLOSE TO A FOOT BELOW MLLW.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LEVELS IN CASE THEY DO GET LOW AGAIN.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ025-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAYES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...HAYES
AVIATION...GIGI/HAYES
MARINE...HAYES/ROBERTSON/GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAYES
000
FXUS61 KPHI 122319
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ITS MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER WEATHER NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ESTF UPDATE WAS BASICALLY TO FOLLOW A COUPLE OF NARROW FLURRY
AND SNOW SHOWER BANDS WORKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN NJ. THE HRRR IS
HANDLING THIS PRETTY WELL. 18Z NAM ALSO NOT SHOWING ANY SHEAR
AT 925MB AND 850MB THROUGH 00Z AND THEN START PARTING THEIR WAYS.
REST OF FCST REMAINS PRETTY GOOD.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL INTO NORTHERN CANADA. WINDS MAY
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT, BUT THE STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TO DROP. A VORT
MAX CROSSED OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND MOSTLY JUST PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACCOMPANIED IT; ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS. HOWEVER, THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS
WELL AS THE VORT MAX MOVES EAST, AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE BECOME MORE WESTERLY TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM / MONDAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY, GIVING US MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHILE THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS WELL. THIS SHOULD CUT OFF THE
STRONG LAKE EFFECT FLOW FOR OUR AREA, AND WITH NO SHORT WAVES/VORT
MAXES EXPECTED, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE MONDAY, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO SYSTEMS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PERIOD STARTS FAIRLY WARM...BUT COOLS DOWN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ANY LEFTOVER CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD MELT AWAY MONDAY
EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO BACK OFF...AS HIGH PRESSURE DUCKS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY NOT GO CALM...AS THE THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY FLOW TO PREVENT THIS. CLEAR SKIES IN
THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY OF INCREASING HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD PREVENT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...AND LOWS WERE GENERALLY BASED ON A MOS BLEND.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TUESDAY WILL GO INTO
MOISTENING THE COLUMN...AND THE 1200 UTC GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE INITIALLY DRY AIR. AS
SUCH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. WINDS WILL START TO BACK AHEAD
OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT SNAKING EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THIS COULD KEEP COASTAL WATERS FROM WARMING...BUT ELSEWHERE HIGHS
WERE GENERALLY BASED ON A MOS BLEND.
WHILE THE MASS FIELDS FOR THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE...THE 1200 UTC IS FLATTER AND WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE WAVE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE (WITH A 35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT?)...BUT IS IT UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH
OF THIS WILL GO INTO PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. FOR NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS...WITH THE
BEST OVERRUNNING POTENTIAL
THE COLUMN IS COLD THROUGH MUCH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
OVERRUNNING...BUT A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY CAUSE SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST PROBLEMS. AGAIN...IT IS UNCLEAR JUST HOW
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS COULD BE LIGHT SNOW. LOWS WERE GENERALLY BASED
ON THE WARMER NAM MOS NUMBERS.
A SURFACE WAVE LOOKS TO FORM ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE BEST DEEPENING SHOULD
OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION (AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST
OF THE COOL SEASON). THUS...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MORNING. THE GRADIENT COULD INCREASE ENOUGH ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW TO ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD ALSO AID IN CLEARING.
AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE SECOND PRECIPITATION
EVENT STARTS TO DEVELOP. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THIS EVENT
APPEARS TO BE STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED...AGAIN WITH THE WARM
FRONT AS THE FOCUS. UNLIKE TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE COLUMN WILL
BE IN THE PROCESS OF WARMING...AND THIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST AREAS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
MAIN HOLDOUT IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE 1200 ECMWF...WHICH IS SLOWER
WITH THE MAIN PUNCH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND COULD BE SLOWER TO
WARM THE COLUMN.
AT ANY RATE...THE HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH OF QPF FOR AREAS THAT COULD BE
COLD ENOUGH AT THE START FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...THIS
DOES NOT LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TRANSITORY...AS HEIGHTS START TO
RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE LATEST TAFS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING 30 PLUS KNOT WIND GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE. THE SUGGESTED
GUSTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT HOT, SO WE WERE NOT AS ROBUST AS
THEIR SUGGESTIONS. WE KEPT A TRANSITION ZONE OF WEAKER WIND GUSTS
LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING THEM OVERNIGHT.
AS FAR AS THE VFR CIGS GO, THE TREND TOWARD LESS IS CONTINUED THIS
EVENING LINGERING IT THE LONGEST AT KABE AND THEN KRDG AND KTTN.
THE DEVELOPING FORECAST INVERSION WE BELIEVE WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TRAP A VFR CIG BELOW IT AT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
ON MONDAY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. THE LATEST
SOUNDING FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH TO DEVELOP
ANY HOME GROWN CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS. WE CARRIED A BIT OF
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EXITING THE ROCKIES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ONCE THE SUN RISES AND MIXING STARTS AGAIN.
WHILE IT WILL BE WINDY, PEAK WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE DOWN FROM
TODAY, GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THE GUSTINESS WITH THIS
EVENT SHOULD BE GONE FOR GOOD ONCE THE SUN SETS AS PER THE 30HR
KPHL TAF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS VFR. HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. IT
IS NOT CLEAR JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT BISECTS THE AREA. IF PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A
LONG SHOT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT AND MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT TIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A 3 TO 6 HOUR POSSIBILITY AT MOST.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO
MVFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WINDS ASSUME PRE WARM FRONTAL
DIRECTIONS. MOST MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WARM FRONT...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THIS COULD
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE GALE WARNING UP AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS SINCE WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING IN THE LOW 30S ACROSS
THE LAND AND AT A FEW BUOYS. THE GALE WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION, AT WHICH TIME A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE IT. ONCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS ISSUED, IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS WINDS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 25-30 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE SLACKENING MONDAY EVENING...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
VALUES IN GUSTS MONDAY EVENING.. EVEN THIS BACKS OFF LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT CLEAR
WHETHER THE FRONT ACTUALLY GETS NORTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE A WAVE DEVELOPS ON IT. IN ANY CASE...THE GRADIENT
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE LOOK FAIRLY WEAK
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE DEEPENS NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE GRADIENT
ON THE BACK SIDE COULD GET CLOSE TO BEING ABLE TO SUPPORT SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. THIS LOOKS
FAIRLY TRANSITORY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING...AGAIN WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE WATERS. THE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER...AS IT
USUALLY THE CASE DURING WARM AIR ADVECTION SCENARIOS...THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THIS CAN OCCUR.
MID RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP ON THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY. THE BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION PROBABLY OCCURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL SUPPORT GALE
FORE WINDS...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA GOT CLOSE TO BLOW OUT TIDES WITH THE
LAST LOW TIDE (WITHIN A COUPLE OF TENTHS). BEING THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, TIDES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO THE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS,
BUT THE LOW TIDE OVERNIGHT MAY STILL BE CLOSE TO A FOOT BELOW MLLW.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LEVELS IN CASE THEY DO GET LOW AGAIN.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ025-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAYES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...HAYES
AVIATION...GIGI/HAYES
MARINE...HAYES/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 122023 CCA
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ITS MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER WEATHER NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL INTO NORTHERN CANADA. WINDS MAY
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT, BUT THE STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TO DROP. A VORT
MAX CROSSED OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND MOSTLY JUST PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACCOMPANIED IT; ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS. HOWEVER, THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS
WELL AS THE VORT MAX MOVES EAST, AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE BECOME MORE WESTERLY TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY, GIVING US MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHILE THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS WELL. THIS SHOULD CUT OFF THE
STRONG LAKE EFFECT FLOW FOR OUR AREA, AND WITH NO SHORT WAVES/VORT
MAXES EXPECTED, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE MONDAY, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO SYSTEMS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PERIOD STARTS FAIRLY WARM...BUT COOLS DOWN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ANY LEFTOVER CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD MELT AWAY MONDAY
EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO BACK OFF...AS HIGH PRESSURE DUCKS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY NOT GO CALM...AS THE THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY FLOW TO PREVENT THIS. CLEAR SKIES IN
THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY OF INCREASING HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD PREVENT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...AND LOWS WERE GENERALLY BASED ON A MOS BLEND.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TUESDAY WILL GO INTO
MOISTENING THE COLUMN...AND THE 1200 UTC GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE INITIALLY DRY AIR. AS
SUCH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. WINDS WILL START TO BACK AHEAD
OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT SNAKING EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THIS COULD KEEP COASTAL WATERS FROM WARMING...BUT ELSEWHERE HIGHS
WERE GENERALLY BASED ON A MOS BLEND.
WHILE THE MASS FIELDS FOR THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE...THE 1200 UTC IS FLATTER AND WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE WAVE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE (WITH A 35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT?)...BUT IS IT UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH
OF THIS WILL GO INTO PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. FOR NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS...WITH THE
BEST OVERRUNNING POTENTIAL
THE COLUMN IS COLD THROUGH MUCH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
OVERRUNNING...BUT A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY CAUSE SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST PROBLEMS. AGAIN...IT IS UNCLEAR JUST HOW
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS COULD BE LIGHT SNOW. LOWS WERE GENERALLY BASED
ON THE WARMER NAM MOS NUMBERS.
A SURFACE WAVE LOOKS TO FORM ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE BEST DEEPENING SHOULD
OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION (AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST
OF THE COOL SEASON). THUS...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MORNING. THE GRADIENT COULD INCREASE ENOUGH ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW TO ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD ALSO AID IN CLEARING.
AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE SECOND PRECIPITATION
EVENT STARTS TO DEVELOP. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THIS EVENT
APPEARS TO BE STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED...AGAIN WITH THE WARM
FRONT AS THE FOCUS. UNLIKE TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE COLUMN WILL
BE IN THE PROCESS OF WARMING...AND THIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST AREAS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
MAIN HOLDOUT IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE 1200 ECMWF...WHICH IS SLOWER
WITH THE MAIN PUNCH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND COULD BE SLOWER TO
WARM THE COLUMN.
AT ANY RATE...THE HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH OF QPF FOR AREAS THAT COULD BE
COLD ENOUGH AT THE START FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...THIS
DOES NOT LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TRANSITORY...AS HEIGHTS START TO
RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN-SCT CIGS
AROUND 4,000-6000 FEET ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. THE GUSTS MAY
BE LOST COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT, BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
BREEZY WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ON MONDAY, BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS TODAY, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AGAIN BE SCT TO BKN AROUND 3,500-5,000 FEET FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS VFR AS THE LAST OF ANY CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD BE MELTING AWAY. HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. IT
IS NOT CLEAR JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT BISECTS THE AREA. IF PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A
LONG SHOT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT AND MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT TIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A 3 TO 6 HOUR POSSIBILITY AT MOST.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO
MVFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WINDS ASSUME PRE WARM FRONTAL
DIRECTIONS. MOST MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WARM FRONT...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THIS COULD
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE GALE WARNING UP AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS SINCE WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING IN THE LOW 30S ACROSS
THE LAND AND AT A FEW BUOYS. THE GALE WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION, AT WHICH TIME A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE IT. ONCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS ISSUED, IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS WINDS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 25-30 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE SLACKENING MONDAY EVENING...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
VALUES IN GUSTS MONDAY EVENING.. EVEN THIS BACKS OFF LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT CLEAR
WHETHER THE FRONT ACTUALLY GETS NORTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE A WAVE DEVELOPS ON IT. IN ANY CASE...THE GRADIENT
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE LOOK FAIRLY WEAK
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE DEEPENS NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE GRADIENT
ON THE BACK SIDE COULD GET CLOSE TO BEING ABLE TO SUPPORT SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. THIS LOOKS
FAIRLY TRANSITORY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING...AGAIN WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE WATERS. THE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER...AS IT
USUALLY THE CASE DURING WARM AIR ADVECTION SCENARIOS...THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THIS CAN OCCUR.
MID RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP ON THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY. THE BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION PROBABLY OCCURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL SUPPORT GALE
FORE WINDS...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA GOT CLOSE TO BLOW OUT TIDES WITH THE
LAST LOW TIDE (WITHIN A COUPLE OF TENTHS). BEING THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, TIDES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO THE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS,
BUT THE LOW TIDE OVERNIGHT MAY STILL BE CLOSE TO A FOOT BELOW MLLW.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LEVELS IN CASE THEY DO GET LOW AGAIN.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAYES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...HAYES
AVIATION...HAYES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HAYES/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPHI 122022
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ITS MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER WEATHER NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL INTO NORTHERN CANADA. WINDS MAY
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT, BUT THE STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TO DROP. A VORT
MAX CROSSED OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND MOSTLY JUST PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACCOMPANIED IT; ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS. HOWEVER, THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS
WELL AS THE VORT MAX MOVES EAST, AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE BECOME MORE WESTERLY TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY, GIVING US MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHILE THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS WELL. THIS SHOULD CUT OFF THE
STRONG LAKE EFFECT FLOW FOR OUR AREA, AND WITH NO SHORT WAVES/VORT
MAXES EXPECTED, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE MONDAY, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO SYSTEMS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PERIOD STARTS FAIRLY WARM...BUT COOLS DOWN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ANY LEFTOVER CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD MELT AWAY MONDAY
EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO BACK OFF...AS HIGH PRESSURE DUCKS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY NOT GO CALM...AS THE THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY FLOW TO PREVENT THIS. CLEAR SKIES IN
THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY OF INCREASING HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD PREVENT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...AND LOWS WERE GENERALLY BASED ON A MOS BLEND.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TUESDAY WILL GO INTO
MOISTENING THE COLUMN...AND THE 1200 UTC GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE INITIALLY DRY AIR. AS
SUCH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. WINDS WILL START TO BACK AHEAD
OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT SNAKING EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THIS COULD KEEP COASTAL WATERS FROM WARMING...BUT ELSEWHERE HIGHS
WERE GENERALLY BASED ON A MOS BLEND.
WHILE THE MASS FIELDS FOR THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE...THE 1200 UTC IS FLATTER AND WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE WAVE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE (WITH A 35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT?)...BUT IS IT UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH
OF THIS WILL GO INTO PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. FOR NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS...WITH THE
BEST OVERRUNNING POTENTIAL
THE COLUMN IS COLD THROUGH MUCH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
OVERRUNNING...BUT A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY CAUSE SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST PROBLEMS. AGAIN...IT IS UNCLEAR JUST HOW
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS COULD BE LIGHT SNOW. LOWS WERE GENERALLY BASED
ON THE WARMER NAM MOS NUMBERS.
A SURFACE WAVE LOOKS TO FORM ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE BEST DEEPENING SHOULD
OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION (AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST
OF THE COOL SEASON). THUS...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MORNING. THE GRADIENT COULD INCREASE ENOUGH ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW TO ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD ALSO AID IN CLEARING.
AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE SECOND PRECIPITATION
EVENT STARTS TO DEVELOP. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THIS EVENT
APPEARS TO BE STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED...AGAIN WITH THE WARM
FRONT AS THE FOCUS. UNLIKE TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE COLUMN WILL
BE IN THE PROCESS OF WARMING...AND THIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST AREAS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
MAIN HOLDOUT IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE 1200 ECMWF...WHICH IS SLOWER
WITH THE MAIN PUNCH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND COULD BE SLOWER TO
WARM THE COLUMN.
AT ANY RATE...THE HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH OF QPF FOR AREAS THAT COULD BE
COLD ENOUGH AT THE START FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...THIS
DOES NOT LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TRANSITORY...AS HEIGHTS START TO
RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN-SCT CIGS
AROUND 4,000-6000 FEET ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. THE GUSTS MAY
BE LOST COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT, BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
BREEZY WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ON MONDAY, BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS TODAY, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AGAIN BE SCT TO BKN AROUND 3,500-5,000 FEET FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS VFR AS THE LAST OF ANY CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD BE MELTING AWAY. HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. IT
IS NOT CLEAR JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT BISECTS THE AREA. IF PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A
LONG SHOT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT AND MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT TIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A 3 TO 6 HOUR POSSIBILITY AT MOST.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO
MVFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WINDS ASSUME PRE WARM FRONTAL
DIRECTIONS. MOST MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WARM FRONT...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THIS COULD
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE GALE WARNING UP AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS SINCE WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING IN THE LOW 30S ACROSS
THE LAND AND AT A FEW BUOYS. THE GALE WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION, AT WHICH TIME A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE IT. ONCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS ISSUED, IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS WINDS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 25-30 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE SLACKENING MONDAY EVENING...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
VALUES IN GUSTS MONDAY EVENING.. EVEN THIS BACKS OFF LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT CLEAR
WHETHER THE FRONT ACTUALLY GETS NORTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE A WAVE DEVELOPS ON IT. IN ANY CASE...THE GRADIENT
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE LOOK FAIRLY WEAK
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE DEEPENS NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE GRADIENT
ON THE BACK SIDE COULD GET CLOSE TO BEING ABLE TO SUPPORT SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. THIS LOOKS
FAIRLY TRANSITORY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING...AGAIN WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE WATERS. THE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER...AS IT
USUALLY THE CASE DURING WARM AIR ADVECTION SCENARIOS...THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THIS CAN OCCUR.
MID RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP ON THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY. THE BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION PROBABLY OCCURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL SUPPORT GALE
FORE WINDS...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA GOT CLOSE TO BLOW OUT TIDES WITH THE
LAST LOW TIDE (WITHIN A COUPLE OF TENTHS). BEING THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, TIDES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO THE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS,
BUT THE LOW TIDE OVERNIGHT MAY STILL BE CLOSE TO A FOOT BELOW MLLW.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LEVELS IN CASE THEY DO GET LOW AGAIN.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ025-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAYES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...HAYES
AVIATION...HAYES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HAYES/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPHI 121548 CCA
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1048 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TODAY WILL PRODUCE A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO OUR REGION. THE
HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES. AS A VORT MAX CROSSES THE AREA TODAY, SKY COVER
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY THE SRN POCONOS AND SUSSEX
COUNTY. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WHILE MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS TODAY (LOWER IN THE POCONOS AND HIGHER OVER
THE DELMARVA).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FCST FOR TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHILE SOME CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS UP NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT FROM
TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS THAT MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
THE FIRST IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH A RATHER LIMITED AMOUNT OF
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND A FAIRLY WEAK WIND FIELD. WE ARE ONLY
CARRYING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME.
THE SECOND SYSTEM IS, OF COURSE, THE SUBJECT OF CHANGE FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE MODELS, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER OF THE
TWO. THE GFS IS ACTUALLY SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THE CANADIAN IS SLOW AND SHARP, AND IT
CUTS THIS SYSTEM OFF WHILE IT STILL IS WELL TO OUR WEST. WE HAVE
QUITE A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT OUR DISPOSAL. PRESENTLY, WE FORECAST
THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT US LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AT THIS POINT, IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THERE WOULD BE P-TYPE ISSUES
AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE MODERATE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLE SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD IF THE ECMWF
IS TO BE BELIEVED. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GFS WOULD SIMPLY TAKE A
LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THAT WOULD BE
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE CANADIAN LOOKS A LITTLE
LIKE A SLOW MOTION VERSION OF THE ECMWF. FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH, THE
ECMWF HAS GONE OFF THE RAILS THIS WINTER WHEN IT HAS BLOWN UP
SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM, AND IT ISN`T DOING THAT WITH THIS RUN.
WOULDN`T IT BE PRETTY TO THINK THAT OBSERVATION IS USEFUL?
APOLOGIES TO E.H.
OUR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM ARE FORECAST TO START OFF NEAR
NORMAL AND RISE TO MODERATELY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY,
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 4,000-6,000 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH OUR NORTHERN CWA, BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT OUR TAF SITES; ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE A FLURRY OR TWO AT ABE/RDG. GUSTY NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT STILL HAVE SOME GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS.
TONIGHT...SKY COVER WILL BECOME SCT OR SKC.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND
WITH SOME LUCK THEY MIGHT PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, A WEAK
SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND THE LATE TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME MAY BRING PRECIPITATION AND SOME LOWERING IN CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITIES TO THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND ON MONDAY WILL
BACK AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, AND THEN WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AN ISSUE INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
THE STRONG LOW OVER ERN CANADA AND A HIGH WELL TO THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TODAY. RECENT OBS
CONFIRM THAT GALES ORE OCCURRING THIS MORNING. SO THE ONGOING GALE
WILL CONTINUE WITH NO CHANGE IN THE ENDING TIME (06Z MON). A SCA
FLAG WILL BE NEEDED ONCE THE GALE IS DROPPED. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL
BE 6 TO 8 FT TODAY AND THEN DECREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT.
WE SHOULD LOSE ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, AND
THEN WE EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE NEGATIVE DEPARTURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH TIME, BUT WE PRESENTLY DO NOT
EXPECT BLOWOUT TIDES. WE WILL, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DELISI/KLINE
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/O`HARA/DELISI
MARINE...O`HARA/DELISI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA/DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPHI 121513
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1013 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TODAY WILL PRODUCE A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO OUR REGION. THE
HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES. AS A VORT MAX CROSSES THE AREA TODAY, SKY COVER
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY THE SRN POCONOS AND SUSSEX
COUNTY. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WHILE MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS TODAY (LOWER IN THE POCONOS AND HIGHER OVER
THE DELMARVA).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FCST FOR TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHILE SOME CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS UP NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT FROM
TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS THAT MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
THE FIRST IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH A RATHER LIMITED AMOUNT OF
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND A FAIRLY WEAK WIND FIELD. WE ARE ONLY
CARRYING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME.
THE SECOND SYSTEM IS, OF COURSE, THE SUBJECT OF CHANGE FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE MODELS, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER OF THE
TWO. THE GFS IS ACTUALLY SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THE CANADIAN IS SLOW AND SHARP, AND IT
CUTS THIS SYSTEM OFF WHILE IT STILL IS WELL TO OUR WEST. WE HAVE
QUITE A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT OUR DISPOSAL. PRESENTLY, WE FORECAST
THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT US LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AT THIS POINT, IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THERE WOULD BE P-TYPE ISSUES
AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE MODERATE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLE SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD IF THE ECMWF
IS TO BE BELIEVED. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GFS WOULD SIMPLY TAKE A
LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THAT WOULD BE
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE CANADIAN LOOKS A LITTLE
LIKE A SLOW MOTION VERSION OF THE ECMWF. FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH, THE
ECMWF HAS GONE OFF THE RAILS THIS WINTER WHEN IT HAS BLOWN UP
SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM, AND IT ISN`T DOING THAT WITH THIS RUN.
WOULDN`T IT BE PRETTY TO THINK THAT OBSERVATION IS USEFUL?
APOLOGIES TO E.H.
OUR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM ARE FORECAST TO START OFF NEAR
NORMAL AND RISE TO MODERATELY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY,
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 4,000-6,000 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH OUR NORTHERN CWA, BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT OUR TAF SITES; ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE A FLURRY OR TWO AT ABE/RDG. GUSTY NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT STILL HAVE SOME GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS.
TONIGHT...SKY COVER WILL BECOME SCT OR SKC.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND
WITH SOME LUCK THEY MIGHT PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, A WEAK
SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND THE LATE TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME MAY BRING PRECIPITATION AND SOME LOWERING IN CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITIES TO THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND ON MONDAY WILL
BACK AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, AND THEN WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AN ISSUE INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
THE STRONG LOW OVER ERN CANADA AND A HIGH WELL TO THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TODAY. RECENT OBS
CONFIRM THAT GALES ORE OCCURRING THIS MORNING. SO THE ONGOING GALE
WILL CONTINUE WITH NO CHANGE IN THE ENDING TIME (06Z MON). A SCA
FLAG WILL BE NEEDED ONCE THE GALE IS DROPPED. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL
BE 6 TO 8 FT TODAY AND THEN DECREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT.
WE SHOULD LOSE ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, AND
THEN WE EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE NEGATIVE DEPARTURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH TIME, BUT WE PRESENTLY DO NOT
EXPECT BLOWOUT TIDES. WE WILL, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ025-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DELISI/KLINE
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/O`HARA/DELISI
MARINE...O`HARA/DELISI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA/DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPHI 120925
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TODAY WILL PRODUCE A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO OUR REGION. THE
HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY. SKY COVER WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
THIS MORNING AND THEN IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY THE SRN POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
TEENS TODAY (LOWER IN THE POCONOS AND HIGHER OVER THE DELMARVA).
THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT EARLIER WILL BE TAKEN DOWN
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FCST FOR TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHILE SOME CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS UP NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT FROM
TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS THAT MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
THE FIRST IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH A RATHER LIMITED AMOUNT OF
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND A FAIRLY WEAK WIND FIELD. WE ARE ONLY
CARRYING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME.
THE SECOND SYSTEM IS, OF COURSE, THE SUBJECT OF CHANGE FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE MODELS, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER OF THE
TWO. THE GFS IS ACTUALLY SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THE CANADIAN IS SLOW AND SHARP, AND IT
CUTS THIS SYSTEM OFF WHILE IT STILL IS WELL TO OUR WEST. WE HAVE
QUITE A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT OUR DISPOSAL. PRESENTLY, WE FORECAST
THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT US LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AT THIS POINT, IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THERE WOULD BE P-TYPE ISSUES
AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE MODERATE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLE SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD IF THE ECMWF
IS TO BE BELIEVED. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GFS WOULD SIMPLY TAKE A
LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THAT WOULD BE
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE CANADIAN LOOKS A LITTLE
LIKE A SLOW MOTION VERSION OF THE ECMWF. FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH, THE
ECMWF HAS GONE OFF THE RAILS THIS WINTER WHEN IT HAS BLOWN UP
SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM, AND IT ISN`T DOING THAT WITH THIS RUN.
WOULDN`T IT BE PRETTY TO THINK THAT OBSERVATION IS USEFUL?
APOLOGIES TO E.H.
OUR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM ARE FORECAST TO START OFF NEAR
NORMAL AND RISE TO MODERATELY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNED TO THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PASSED TO THE EAST. MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED AWAY...BUT MORE WILL LIKELY ROLL DOWN FROM THE NW LATER
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BE PROMOTED SINCE A VORT MAX WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NW FLOW. THE TERMINALS WILL MOSTLY BE BKN TODAY. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KRDG OR KABE ATTM. GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BUT STILL HAVE SOME GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS. TONIGHT...SKY
COVER WILL BECOME SCT OR SKC.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND
WITH SOME LUCK THEY MIGHT PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, A WEAK
SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND THE LATE TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME MAY BRING PRECIPITATION AND SOME LOWERING IN CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITIES TO THE AREA. A MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND ON MONDAY WILL
BACK AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, AND THEN WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AN ISSUE INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
THE STRONG LOW OVER ERN CANADA AND A HIGH WELL TO THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TODAY. RECENT OBS
CONFIRM THAT GALES ORE OCCURRING THIS MORNING. SO THE ONGOING GALE
WILL CONTINUE WITH NO CHANGE IN THE ENDING TIME (06Z MON). A SCA
FLAG WILL BE NEEDED ONCE THE GALE IS DROPPED. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL
BE 6 TO 8 FT TODAY AND THEN DECREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT.
WE SHOULD LOSE ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, AND
THEN WE EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE NEGATIVE DEPARTURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH TIME, BUT WE PRESENTLY DO NOT
EXPECT BLOWOUT TIDES. WE WILL, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE/DELISI
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DELISI
AVIATION...O`HARA/DELISI
MARINE...O`HARA/DELISI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA/DELISI
|
