[top]
000
FXUS65 KBOI 160907
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
307 AM MDT WED MAY 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...INSTABILITY THAT HELPED FORM THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY
COUNTY LATE TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL IDAHO TODAY FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SRN AND ERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. SWLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
COMES IN FROM THE COAST. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
OREGON ZONES AND WRN-MOST IDAHO ZONES THURSDAY MORNING...AND
REMAINING IDAHO ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. TOTAL PCPN WILL
PROBABLY BE LESS THAN .05 INCH IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS AND LESS
THAN .25 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGS COOLER THAN TODAY EXCEPT IN SCENTRAL IDAHO WHERE MAXS WILL
STILL BE IN THE MID 70S. POST-FRONTAL WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 MPH IN THE SNAKE BASIN THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
BREEZY UNDER NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE SW IDAHO MTNS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON AND
LOWER VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO. UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PAC NW FOR THE
WEEKEND CONTINUING DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NORMAL BY SATURDAY TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A BROAD TROUGH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW
FOR TUESDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR UNDER AREAS OF HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS TODAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE NV BORDER AND THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS EAST OF KMYL-MUO LINE. NW WINDS SURFACE AND
ALOFT TO 20 KTS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SE OREGON AND
SW IDAHO THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS BUT INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION.....DG
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000
FXUS65 KPIH 160841
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
241 AM MDT WED MAY 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF A WEAKENING SYSTEM CROSSING
UTAH AND THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM ACROSS CANADA WHILE PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE RAIN
WILL INCREASE...WE ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAINFALL WITH
ACTIVITY TODAY AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER STORMS. WE WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WISE TODAY...10-15 DEGREES...BUT IT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY BY 5 DEGREES OR SO. TODAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
OVERALL WINDS...AROUND 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED.
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFFSHORE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. AGAIN...HIGHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUITE A BIT IN THIS PATTERN...WITH HIGHS BY
FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S WHICH IS ACTUALLY WHERE WE ARE
TYPICALLY FOR MID MAY. WE WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO
BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FEET. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY DURING THE
PERIOD ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT NOW...IT
APPEARS WE MAY NEED AT LEAST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FRIDAY.
WE WILL SEE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A SHORT-LIVED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH AS SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. FOR THOSE
WANTING A PREVIEW OF THE WEATHER FOR VIEWING THE ECLIPSE...THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT THE SKY SHOULD NOT BE TOTALLY OBSCURED.
BEYOND THAT...WE WILL SEE A QUICK RETURN TO BREEZY...COOLER AND
POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER. EASTERN IDAHO WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ZONAL FLOW AS SEVERAL STORMS PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE FORECAST WILL POINT OUT THAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES
FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES. KEYES
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON -SHRA/-TSRA A BIGGER THREAT TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRPORTS
BUT NO CROSS WIND ISSUES. KSUN HAS HIGHEST THREAT OF -TSRA...BUT
UNDER THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW IT IS POSSIBLE AT ANY
AIRDROME THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE GENERATING
THESE...THUS BELIEVE THE -TSRA SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
MESSICK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
SHOWERS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MORE INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THU AFTERNOON. ALSO
EXPECT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVERAGE THU SHOULD TAKE MIXING LEVEL DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND THUS
EXPECT CALMER WIND CONDITIONS THEN. THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT/FRI WILL PUT AN END TO THE EXTREMELY LOW RH AND RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES...BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS MON WITH A
RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL WEEKEND FOR TEMPERATURES. MESSICK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPIH 160317
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
920 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK UPDATE THIS
EVENING TO DECREASE THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN OVER
NRN NEVADA...ERN UTAH AND ERN OREGON. THERE STILL REMAINS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED CELL OVERNIGHT AND THUS HAVE CONTINUED SOME
MENTION FAVORING THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. PREVIOUS MODEL DATA WAS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL LAKE WIND CONDITIONS OVER
AMERICAN FALLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL AWAIT ARRIVAL OF FULL MODEL
SUITE AND ADVISE INCOMING MID-SHIFT OF POTENTIAL FOR THEIR FORECAST
CONSIDERATION. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EASTWARD. THIS WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION IN
THE SNAKE PLAIN WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THE COAST THURSDAY AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR STORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...BUT
ANTICIPATE WIND GUSTS UNDER 50 MPH ACCORDING TO WINDEX VALUES OVER
THE REGION. VALLE
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY BEHIND COLD
FRONT AS UPPER TROF CONTINUED TO WORK EAST WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. GENERAL TREND IS TO DRY OUT CONDITIONS SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST. FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A WEAK
TROF TUESDAY AND SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY THEN WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. GK
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
UPPER LOW MOVES TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT
HAILEY AND NO MENTION AT OTHER THREE SITES. CONTINUED VFR ACROSS
THE BOARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...
ALONG WITH SOME LID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE HAINES INDEX WILL ALSO BE UP TO 6 TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN US. HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 160250
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
850 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR NO UPDATES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND
HARNEY COUNTY ALONG AN AXIS CENTERED FROM JUST WEST OF BAKER CITY
TO BURNS AND SOUTH. WEATHER PARAMETER ALONG THIS AXIS INCLUDE 200
J/KG INSTABILITY...POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS
AND NO MID LEVEL CAP. MOST OTHER AREAS REMAINED CAPPED TODAY AND
CLOUDS OVER MOST OF SW IDAHO LIMITED INSTABILITY AS WELL. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE NEVADA BORDER IN A WEST-EAST ARC
MAY CROSS THE BORDER BEFORE DECAYING BY MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGEST
ECHOES /OVER 50DBZ/ NEAR FAR SW BAKER COUNTY PRODUCED 0.16 INCHES
OF RAIN AND GUSTS BELOW 30 MPH AT ANTELOPE RAWS. DOPPLER RADARS
AT BOISE AND PENDLETON /DUAL POL/ ESTIMATED HEAVY RAIN /1.0-1.5
INCHES IN 60-90 MINUTES/ IN FAR NE HARNEY COUNTY OVER BLUEBUCKET
CREEK. PREFERRED DUAL POL`S LOWER NUMBERS WHICH STILL INDICATED AN
INCH AN HOUR WITH A SLOW MOVING CELL. SPOTTERS IN AND NEAR BURNS
REPORTED LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH NEAR 50DBZ+ THUNDERSTORMS
AS OF 845 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FOR DETAILS ON LATER TERM
PLEASE SEE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL IDAHO THIS EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON...MAINLY HARNEY AND BAKER COUNTIES...BEFORE 06Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEST UP TO 15 KTS AT
10K FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW STILL DRIFTING
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA...AND SPREADING THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHEAST OREGON. CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN NV...BUT NONE IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO
OR SE OREGON SO FAR. WE EXPECT VERY LITTLE THIS EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS RETAINED MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE NV BORDER. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TONIGHT...WE WILL
SEE FEWER CLOUDS TOMORROW. AS HEIGHTS FALL...WE WILL BALANCE OUT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND SEE HIGHS MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE EXCEPTIONS
WOULD BE PLACES THAT GOT FULL SUN TODAY...MAINLY BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THEY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW
THAN TODAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW WED
NIGHT AND THU...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND A SURFACE LOW
WILL SET UP IN SW IDAHO. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED THROUGH
DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS. HIGHS
THU WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TOMORROW...WITH THE
LARGER DROPS IN SE OREGON AND THE SMALLEST CHANGES IN THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF PRECIP INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE TROUGH AND FRONT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE CHANCES ARE BEST ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY FOR TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A SMALL CHANCE OF POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE ELSE. SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH
000
FXUS65 KBOI 152107
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
307 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW STILL DRIFTING
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA...AND SPREADING THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHEAST OREGON. CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN NV...BUT NONE IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO
OR SE OREGON SO FAR. WE EXPECT VERY LITTLE THIS EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS RETAINED MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE NV BORDER. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TONIGHT...WE WILL
SEE FEWER CLOUDS TOMORROW. AS HEIGHTS FALL...WE WILL BALANCE OUT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND SEE HIGHS MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE EXCEPTIONS
WOULD BE PLACES THAT GOT FULL SUN TODAY...MAINLY BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THEY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW
THAN TODAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW WED
NIGHT AND THU...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND A SURFACE LOW
WILL SET UP IN SW IDAHO. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED THROUGH
DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS. HIGHS
THU WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TOMORROW...WITH THE
LARGER DROPS IN SE OREGON AND THE SMALLEST CHANGES IN THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF PRECIP INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE TROUGH AND FRONT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE CHANCES ARE BEST ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY FOR TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A SMALL CHANCE OF POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE ELSE. SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON BY MIDNIGHT AND
SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AROUND 15 KNOTS UP TO
10K FEET MSL. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
ALOFT AROUND 15 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS AND BUREAU OF RECLAMATION WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREMENTALLY REDUCE DISCHARGE FROM LUCKY PEAK DAM THIS
WEEK. REDUCTIONS MADE AT LUCKY PEAK EARLIER TODAY ARE WORKING THEIR
WAY DOWNSTREAM...AND HAVE DECREASED THE FLOW AT GLENWOOD BRIDGE
BELOW FLOOD LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE BOISE RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS WILL ALLOW
THE RIVER TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL THIS WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE RIVER LEVEL
IS DROPPING...FLOWS REMAIN SWIFT...COLD...AND DANGEROUS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA
HYDROLOGY...TL
000
FXUS65 KPIH 151923
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
123 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EASTWARD. THIS WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION IN
THE SNAKE PLAIN WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THE COAST THURSDAY AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR STORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...BUT
ANTICIPATE WIND GUSTS UNDER 50 MPH ACCORDING TO WINDEX VALUES OVER
THE REGION.
VALLE
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY BEHIND COLD
FRONT AS UPPER TROF CONTINUED TO WORK EAST WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. GENERAL TREND IS TO DRY OUT CONDITIONS SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST. FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A WEAK
TROF TUESDAY AND SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY THEN WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
GK
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
UPPER LOW MOVES TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT
HAILEY AND NO MENTION AT OTHER THREE SITES. CONTINUED VFR ACROSS
THE BOARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...
ALONG WITH SOME LID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE HAINES INDEX WILL ALSO BE UP TO 6 TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN US. HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 151600
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1000 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH OVER NEVADA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST TODAY. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. NOT QUITE LOW
ENOUGH TO REMOVE IT...BUT VERY LOW. BEST CHANCE IS ALONG THE
NEVADA-IDAHO BORDER. THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INHIBIT
CONVECTION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME IT IS AN INDICATION THAT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE...NECESSARY FOR CONVECTION...IS PRESENT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IT IS THIS MORNING. TOMORROW WILL BE
LESS CLOUDY AND A LITTLE COOLER...AND WE STILL EXPECT A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST
IDAHO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT
AROUND 20 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 09Z WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE PIC SHOWING UPPER LOW CENTER OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NV THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA /AS EVIDENCED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
YESTERDAY EVENING/. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE MID AND LOW
LEVELS TODAY WHICH IS WHY THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO...THE TREASURE VALLEY REMAINS CAPPED WHILE THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT
REMAINS BORDERLINE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS
EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WAS POORLY INITIALIZED IN THE 00Z MODELS.
THE CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO AFFECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ID AND BOISE MTNS...SO PULLED
BACK MUCH OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ISOLATED. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIES OFF THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW DEPARTS
AND ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. SW FLOW INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
REMAIN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
ALONG THE NV BORDER. WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE OFF A FEW
DEGREES FROM TODAY/S HIGHS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MAJOR TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OUR CWA THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH COMES ONSHORE. OREGON ZONES AND WRN-MOST IDAHO
ZONES WILL TURN COOLER THURSDAY BUT OTHER IDAHO ZONES...ESPECIALLY
ERN-MOST ZONES WILL STILL BE WARM THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE
COOL IN ALL ZONES AS THE UPPER TROUGH COMES THROUGH OUR AREA. NEXT
UPPER RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC EARLY
SATURDAY SO COOLING TREND WON/T LAST LONG. WARMING TREND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY AS NEXT MAJOR
PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONTO THE NW COAST. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
COME THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING ABOVE 7000 FEET MSL. DRYING AND CLEARING LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY THEN BECOMING CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....LC
000
FXUS65 KBOI 150952
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
352 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 09Z WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE PIC SHOWING UPPER LOW CENTER OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NV THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA /AS EVIDENCED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
YESTERDAY EVENING/. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE MID AND LOW
LEVELS TODAY WHICH IS WHY THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO...THE TREASURE VALLEY REMAINS CAPPED WHILE THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT
REMAINS BORDERLINE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS
EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WAS POORLY INITIALIZED IN THE 00Z MODELS.
THE CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO AFFECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ID AND BOISE MTNS...SO PULLED
BACK MUCH OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ISOLATED. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIES OFF THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW DEPARTS
AND ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. SW FLOW INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
REMAIN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
ALONG THE NV BORDER. WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE OFF A FEW
DEGREES FROM TODAY/S HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MAJOR TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OUR CWA THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH COMES ONSHORE. OREGON ZONES AND WRN-MOST IDAHO
ZONES WILL TURN COOLER THURSDAY BUT OTHER IDAHO ZONES...ESPECIALLY
ERN-MOST ZONES WILL STILL BE WARM THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE
COOL IN ALL ZONES AS THE UPPER TROUGH COMES THROUGH OUR AREA. NEXT
UPPER RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC EARLY
SATURDAY SO COOLING TREND WON/T LAST LONG. WARMING TREND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY AS NEXT MAJOR
PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONTO THE NW COAST. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
COME THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING ABOVE 7000 FEET MSL. DRYING AND CLEARING LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY THEN BECOMING CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO TODAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15
KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND WESTERLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE FORECAST.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY COOLS TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY...
WHICH WILL CUT DOWN THE RUNOFF FROM HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK. THE
BOISE RIVER AT GLENWOOD BRIDGE REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BUT IS
DECREASING IN STEPS AS FLOW FROM LUCKY PEAK DAM IS BEING GRADUALLY
REDUCED.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....LC
AVIATION.....LC
HYDROLOGY....DG
000
FXUS65 KPIH 150750
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR
EASTERN IDAHO. WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IF
NOT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER IN FACT. WE WILL BE ENCROACHING ON IF
NOT BREAKING RECORD HIGHS TODAY. THE HEAT WILL ALSO BE INTERACTING
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE TO NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS MAX WIND GUSTS WOULD TOP OUT IN THE 40S SO NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE ON THE HORIZON. THE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW MOVES TOWARD NORTHEAST UTAH/BEAR LAKE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...LIMITED RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY. WE WILL ALSO SEE A LITTLE MORE WIND OVERALL
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL BE WATCHING WINDS AT
AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR AS WE WILL BE APPROACHING LOW-END IMPACT
SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS WE HEAD INTO
THURSDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS IDAHO WHICH IN TURN WILL PRODUCE AN EVEN
GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN-PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND STORMS...IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS
WELL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES COOLER VS. TODAY.
KEYES
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STORM THAT MOVES
ASHORE THURSDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO CLEAR THE STATE. IN
FACT...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STRUGGLING ON HOW QUICK IT WOULD MOVE
OUT AND BUILD IN A RIDGE BEHIND IT. THE GFS BEGINS THE PROCESS ON
SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER. THE LATTER
SCENARIO IS DUE TO ECMWF TRYING BRING ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM IN
RIGHT BEHIND THE MAIN ONE...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP IN THE GFS
SOLUTION. FOR THIS MORNING...WE ARE KEEPING A DECENT SHOT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR FRIDAY WHICH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT ANY BREAK FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AND WARM...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO ON TUESDAY WHICH THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. KEYES
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL
BRING IN LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LATE AFTN/EVE TSTMS
OVER THE MTNS. KSUN AND POSSIBLY KBYI MAY FEEL SOME IMPACTS IN THE
FORM OF GUSTY SFC WINDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.
HEDGES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE HAINES INDEX WILL ALSO BE UP TO 6 TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN US. HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 150245
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO AT LEAST TWO MORE DAYS OF
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS 15 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. THE COOLER UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT...
COMBINED WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE...WILL BRING
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED
BY STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH BASED...WITH LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER NEVADA. BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER WYOMING AND COLORADO AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL DROP OUR
TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO
10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 10 KTS AT 10K FT MSL. TUESDAY...INCREASING
MID CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z - MAINLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOUD SHIELD OVER SE
OREGON AND SW OWYHEE COUNTY ARE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER NORTHERN NV. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON WITH THIS
FEATURE. WINDS TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER DUE
TO THE LOW OVER NV. TUESDAY SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HIGH
HEIGHTS ALOFT EVEN AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS INTO UTAH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY IS STILL ON TRACK. WITH
LOW LAYERS SO DRY AND THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
MID LEVEL CAP HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK FOR BOISE AREA. ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP SOME MORE AND HIGH TEMPS DROP OFF A BIT WEDNESDAY AS SW
TO WEST FLOW CONSOLIDATES OVER SE OREGON TUESDAY EVENING AND OVER SW
IDAHO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK ON TRACK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...JT
PREV DISCUSSION...VM
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....MT
000
FXUS65 KBOI 142059
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
259 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOUD SHIELD OVER SE
OREGON AND SW OWYHEE COUNTY ARE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER NORTHERN NV. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON WITH
THIS FEATURE. WINDS TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER DUE TO THE LOW OVER NV. TUESDAY SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED
DUE TO HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT EVEN AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH...IT SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO UTAH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE
TUESDAY IS STILL ON TRACK. WITH LOW LAYERS SO DRY AND THE UPPER
TREASURE VALLEY SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP HAVE TRIMMED
POPS BACK FOR BOISE AREA. ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP SOME MORE AND
HIGH TEMPS DROP OFF A BIT WEDNESDAY AS SW TO WEST FLOW
CONSOLIDATES OVER SE OREGON TUESDAY EVENING AND OVER SW IDAHO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK ON TRACK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ALOFT AROUND 10 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET
MSL. TUESDAY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...DRY WEATHER...RECENT GAINS IN RESERVOIR STORAGE...AND
DECREASING SNOWPACK ARE ALLOWING WATER MANAGERS TO REDUCE DISCHARGE
OUT OF LUCKY PEAK DAM ON THE BOISE RIVER. DISCHARGE WAS DECREASED
250 CFS LATE THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL 250 CFS DECREASES
PLANNED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THESE FLOW REDUCTIONS WILL
DRAW THE RIVER DOWN TO BELOW THE OFFICIAL FLOOD FLOW OF 7000 CFS AT
GLENWOOD BRIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH REGULATED FLOWS ON THE BOISE RIVER BELOW LUCKY PEAK WILL BE
DECREASING THIS WEEK...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN SWIFT...COLD...AND
DANGEROUS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA
HYDROLOGY...TAL
000
FXUS65 KPIH 141930
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
130 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO
NOT SUPPORT SEVERE LEVEL DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.
THE MAX WIND GUSTS ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...STORMS MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE. VERY
WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
VALLE
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES THROUGH IDAHO. EXPECT SOME LEFTOVER ACTIVITY SATURDAY
THEN DRYING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY THEN EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AS FLOW SHIFTS
SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE IN WEEKEND SHOULD START ANOTHER WARM UP
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
GK
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK
TROF APPROACHES TUESDAY BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED. AT BEST
MAY NEED THUNDERSTORM VICINITY FOR HAILEY LATE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY.
GK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN
WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SMALL UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY...CREATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL. HAINES INDEX WILL REACH 6 ON
TUESDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS A MORE ACTIVE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN US. HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 141532
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
932 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IR AND VISIBLE BAND LOOPS SHOW CLOUDS OVER PARTS
OF OREGON WHICH ARE PIVOTING NORTH ON CYCLONIC FLOW. HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF BURNS HAS A THREAT OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SW IDAHO
UNDER A STRONG RIDGE. SW IDAHO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE
MID 70S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 80S VALLEYS ARE WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF
RECORD HIGHS. LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY LATE TUESDAY IS STILL ON TRACK. NO
UPDATES NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON LATER THIS MORNING AND
INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR
COUNTIES. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT
AROUND 10 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOURCE OF INTEREST THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NV. TODAY IS
ANOTHER 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOWER VALLEYS
NEAR 90. HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER SE OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA. THOUGH MARGINAL
THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY
FROM THE STEENS MTN TO THE ORE/NV BORDER. THE LOW TRACKS INTO
WESTERN NV MONDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BUT THINKING THAT WILL STAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
CENTER AND THUS SOUTH OF THE ORE/NV BORDER THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR
TUESDAY MODELS STILL SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SURFACE
ENERGY TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TREASURE
VALLEY IS CAPPED /NOT BY MUCH/ WITH BETTER POTENTIAL IN THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR AND NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
ALOFT SO MOST LIKELY THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS DUE
TO DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW EMBEDDED
IN LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NEVADA AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR ZONES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DEEPEN ALONG THE COAST. INCREASINGLY MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DRYING AGAIN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS NEXT UPPER RIDGE COMES IN. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OREGON ZONES SUNDAY.
CONTINUED WARM THROUGH THURSDAY THEN NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS COASTAL UPPER TROUGH COMES IN...WARMING AGAIN SUNDAY.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....LC
000
FXUS65 KBOI 141238
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
639 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOURCE OF INTEREST THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NV. TODAY IS
ANOTHER 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOWER VALLEYS
NEAR 90. HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER SE OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA. THOUGH MARGINAL
THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY
FROM THE STEENS MTN TO THE ORE/NV BORDER. THE LOW TRACKS INTO
WESTERN NV MONDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BUT THINKING THAT WILL STAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
CENTER AND THUS SOUTH OF THE ORE/NV BORDER THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR
TUESDAY MODELS STILL SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SURFACE
ENERGY TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TREASURE
VALLEY IS CAPPED /NOT BY MUCH/ WITH BETTER POTENTIAL IN THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR AND NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
ALOFT SO MOST LIKELY THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS DUE
TO DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW EMBEDDED
IN LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NEVADA AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR ZONES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DEEPEN ALONG THE COAST. INCREASINGLY MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DRYING AGAIN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS NEXT UPPER RIDGE COMES IN. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OREGON ZONES SUNDAY.
CONTINUED WARM THROUGH THURSDAY THEN NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS COASTAL UPPER TROUGH COMES IN...WARMING AGAIN SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO OREGON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND INTO SWRN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 21Z-03Z IN SRN HARNEY AND SRN MALHEUR
COUNTIES. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AROUND
15 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO MELT THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INFLOWS INTO THE BOISE RIVER RESERVOIR
SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED TO SNOW MELT. RELEASES FROM LUCKY PEAK DAM
ARE FORECAST TO KEEP THE BOISE RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT GLENWOOD
BRIDGE BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE IT FROM THE CURRENT FLOW OF 7400 CFS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....LC
AVIATION.....LC
HYDROLOGY....DG
000
FXUS65 KBOI 141237
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
329 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOURCE OF INTEREST THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NV. TODAY IS
ANOTHER 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOWER VALLEYS
NEAR 90. HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER SE OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA. THOUGH MARGINAL
THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY
FROM THE STEENS MTN TO THE ORE/NV BORDER. THE LOW TRACKS INTO
WESTERN NV MONDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BUT THINKING THAT WILL STAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
CENTER AND THUS SOUTH OF THE ORE/NV BORDER THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR
TUESDAY MODELS STILL SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SURFACE
ENERGY TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TREASURE
VALLEY IS CAPPED /NOT BY MUCH/ WITH BETTER POTENTIAL IN THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR AND NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
ALOFT SO MOST LIKELY THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS DUE
TO DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW EMBEDDED
IN LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NEVADA AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR ZONES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DEEPEN ALONG THE COAST. INCREASINGLY MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DRYING AGAIN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS NEXT UPPER RIDGE COMES IN. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OREGON ZONES SUNDAY.
CONTINUED WARM THROUGH THURSDAY THEN NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS COASTAL UPPER TROUGH COMES IN...WARMING AGAIN SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO OREGON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND INTO SWRN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 21Z-03Z IN SRN HARNEY AND SRN MALHEUR
COUNTIES. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AROUND
15 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO MELT THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INFLOWS INTO THE BOISE RIVER RESERVOIR
SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED TO SNOW MELT. RELEASES FROM LUCKY PEAK DAM
ARE FORECAST TO KEEP THE BOISE RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT GLENWOOD
BRIDGE BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE IT FROM THE CURRENT FLOW OF 7400 CFS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....LC
AVIATION.....LC
HYDROLOGY....DG
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