000
FXUS63 KDDC 161148
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
648 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS
CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.  DRILLING DOWN INTO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A
FAIRLY SMALL UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW (THAT BROUGHT MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS) CENTERED ALONG THE EAST
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER.  IN THE MAIN POLAR WESTERLIES UP NORTH...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.  A COLD FRONT TIED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM WAS PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS.  AS OF 05Z THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS.  WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WERE FAIRLY LIGHT BY GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT STANDARDS
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS FROM
EASTERN COLORADO TO WYOMING AHEAD OF THE SMALL GREAT BASIN UPPER
LOW. THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WHICH PUSHED SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT WILL
DISSOLVE AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  HAVE
NOT REALLY CHANGED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AS THEY STILL LOOK
GOOD WITH THE +21 TO +25C AT 850MB ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DDC
FORECAST AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO 90 FOR
MOST.  AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD COLORADO TONIGHT IT WILL
WEAKEN...BUT LEE TROUGH WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG SO WILL BE
SEEING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT...BUT STILL THINK THAT LOWS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 50S AS
A RULE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

BY THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED
UPSTREAM NEAR THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE LACK OF AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS OF THIS INITIAL SYSTEM, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY LOW. NAM PROGGED CAPE VALUES STAY AT OR UNDER
600 J/KG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HOWEVER, A
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THURSDAY GIVEN INTENSE ELEVATED HEATING AND SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. STRONG
VERTICAL MIXING OF THE MARGINAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DEEP DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 600MB. SO ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT NO HAIL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY FRIDAY. ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY
AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY  EVENING.
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE AGAIN AS LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE SURFACE
DRYLINE WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED. STORM
CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL FRIDAY SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BAND OF 1000 J/KG SURFACE
BASED CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF DODGE CITY WHILE THE NAM HAS
1500 J/KG IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH OF THESE MODELS HINT AT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. SO SMALL STORM CHANCES
SEEM APPROPRIATE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER (45-50F),
BUT STILL VERY MARGINAL BY MAY STANDARDS. A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH ALONG WITH
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (1 INCH OR LESS). STORM CHANCES INCREASE
BY SATURDAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS,
ALBEIT IN WEAKENING FASHION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATION OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND SURFACE DRYLINE AT THIS
TIME, WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH THAN THE GFS. BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM DIGHTON TO DODGE CITY, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
IN THE GFS WERE DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF
VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SO TORNADO CHANCES DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO EXPECTED HIGH CLOUD BASES. BUT LARGE
HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S, WITH THE HOTTER READINGS IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGION
WEST OF THE DRYLINE FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER-MIDWEST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THERE WILL STILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH ALL OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY SUNDAY, IN WHICH CASE THE STORMS SUNDAY WOULD BE
WELL TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

AFTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND GEM
DEVELOP A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WHILE THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. BUT ANY OF THESE SOLUTIONS
WOULD GENERALLY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DDC/GCK BY 18Z, RESULTING IN A WIND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 13-15 KTS. HAYS CAN EXPECT A
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT ALL WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AT ALL THE TAF SITES GIVEN THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AT ALL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  56  89  61 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  90  55  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
EHA  87  54  90  60 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  90  55  92  60 /   0   0  20  20
HYS  88  57  90  62 /   0   0  10  10
P28  89  56  89  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

000
FXUS63 KGLD 161139
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 AM MDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT WED MAY 16 2012

0330Z WATER VAPOR INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE THE
HIGH PLAINS...WITH CLOSED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. THIS TROUGH ALREADY
TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND OVERALL
OBSERVED 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS PRETTY WEAK AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. 00Z
RAOBS INDICATE A WARM...WELL MIXED AND STABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VERY DRY AIR/LOW PW`S AT DDC/DNR AND LBF. AT
THE SFC...1021MB SFC HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
WITH COLD FRONT FROM APPROX KLAA TO KSLN TO KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER AND TEMPS
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN UTAH
WILL BE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA AS IT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING ASCENT INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LIFT DOES INCREASE...LITTLE WITH ATMOSPHERE PROCEEDING
INCOMING TROUGH HAVING VERY LARGE TD DEPRESSIONS...THINK IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CHANCE SATURATING/INITIATING ANYTHING UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO
FAVOR EASTERN COLORADO...DO HAVE A FEW CONCERNS ABOUT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ALONG RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE IN EASTERN CWA WHERE MORE
INSTABILITY/BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ARE PRESENT. MAIN ISSUE HERE
WILL BE WHETHER CINH CAN BE OVERCOME AS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 50-150 J/KG RANGE. INITIAL PLAN WAS TO LEAVE OUT...BUT
WANT TO SEE SOME OF THE HIGHER RES DATA BEFORE MAKING A FINAL CALL
HERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS IN AREAS SOUTH OF FRONTAL
ZONE. WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED TO DROP TDS SHARPLY TO SOUTH OF
FRONT AND CURRENT RFW LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. COULD MAKE AN
ARGUMENT FOR EXTENDING IT TO THE NORTH...BUT WITH RECENT RELATIVE
GREENNESS DATA SHOWING THINGS GREENING UP QUITE A BIT IN CHEYENNE
KS...THINK A WARNING NOT NEEDED AS FUELS MAY NOT BE CRITICAL.

OVERNIGHT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF SYSTEM RESULTS IN MUCH WEAKER AND A MORE
FURTHER WEST/SOUTH AREA OF MAXIMUM ASCENT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...CONFIDENCE MUCH LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIP COVERAGE AND OVERALL CHANCES. HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY STORMS
WILL MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN THE VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES AND DO NOT THINK GOING
HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES AT THIS POINT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH Q
VECTOR FIELDS SUGGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING NOT
ALL THAT GREAT...INSTABILITY VALUES HIGHER AND WITH TEMPS ALOFT
COOLER CINH VALUES WEAKER. MOISTURE RETURN CONCERNS STILL EXIST FOR
PERIOD AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE
RETURN...SO THINK LIMITING POPS TO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE IN ORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT WED MAY 16 2012

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BRINGING AN END TO ANY
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND INTO COLORADO BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH UPPER TROUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE AREA DIRECTLY UNTIL AROUND 12Z WHEN COLD
FRONT ENTERS CWA...HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO THE  SOUTH OF
SFC LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO/NEB PANHANDLE. MOISTURE
ADVECTION LOOKS A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM WITH TDS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S EXPECTED EAST OF DRY LINE. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS...THINK PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW
FOR THE TIME BEING AS HIGHEST TDS/INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL TO THE
EAST OF BEST SFC CONVERGENCE AND WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING NOT
BECOMING STRONG UNTIL AROUND 12Z THINK SFC FEATURES WILL BE PRIMARY
MEANS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF SFC TROUGH INCREASING
SHARPLY AROUND 00Z. STILL A FAIRLY LARGE DISCREPANCY ON HOW STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY TYPE WINDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT KEEPING LOWS MUCH WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS STAY IN THE 60S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS BEFORE SWINGING UP INTO NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. DRY SLOT APPEARS TO DEVELOP AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...AM NOT EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT WED MAY 16 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PERIOD OF LLWS AT GLD SHOULD
END QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SFC WINDS INCREASE WITH HEATING.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 20KTS...MAINLY AFTER 17Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO
THE WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT WED MAY 16 2012

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS A DEVELOPING
SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH TO THE AREA
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. BASED ON LATEST FUEL REPORTS AND AVAILABLE SATELLITE
GREENESS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS ARE NOT AVAILABLE.

AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CRITICAL
VALUES ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ013-027.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/PM
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...JRM

000
FXUS63 KICT 161124
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
624 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

EARLY THIS MORNING A SHARP MID-UPR TROF EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES THEN ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. A WEAK SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE & WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT S/SE ACROSS
CNTRL KS. THE MID-UPR OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS BEEN MOVING E OVER THE CNTRL
& SRN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A MID-UPR SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS
IN ITS WAKE.

*CORRECTED 5TH LINE OF TEXT.*

DISCUSSION...

TODAY & TONIGHT:
THE EWD MOVING MID-UPR RIDGE INSURES CLEAR WEATHER FOR BOTH PERIODS. THE
APPROACHINNG MID TO UPR SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE SUFFICIENT EWD PROGRESS TO
INDUCE WRN PLAINS SFC TROFFING WHICH`LL INDUCE WINDS TO GRADUALLY BECOME
SELY TODAY & SLY TONIGHT.

THU-FRI NGT:
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER ALL AREAS AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
SHEARS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MASSIVE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERING THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS.

THIS WEEKEND:
TSRA CHANCES STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE WRN NEBRASKA & WRN KS ON SAT AS A
A DEEPER & MUCH STRONGER MID-UPR TROF DIGS ALMOST DUE S OVER THE ROCKIES
ON FRI. LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR THIS TROF WILL SHEAR AS IT CROSSES KS SAT &
SAT NGT BUT WILL STILL BE OF SUFFICIENT INTENSITY TO SWEEP A COLD FRONT
SE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...CNTRL KS SAT & SAT NGT. THE FRONT WILL FIND
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE TSRA OVER MUCH OF KS THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH AXIS OF TSRA SHIFTING SE AS THE FRONT MOVES IN LIKE MANNER
ACROSS SE KS SUN AFTERNOON & EVENING. WITH THE MID-UPR WAVE SHEARING AS
IT SURGES E/NE TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY THE CHANCES FOR SVR TSRA WOULD
BE VERY LOW.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THINKING ON 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
N/NE DURING THE NIGHT AT KHUT/KICT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KCNU.
ON WED...FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER AT ALL SITES DURING THE DAY.  FEW
CUMULUS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KRSL/KHUT/KICT/KSLN WITH
MODEST 850MB MOISTURE AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  60  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      87  60  87  64 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          85  61  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        84  60  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         88  61  89  65 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      90  60  88  65 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          85  60  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       86  61  86  64 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     84  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         82  58  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            81  57  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    83  58  85  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KTOP 161119
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
619 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...WHICH WILL
COME TO A STOP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TODAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS TODAY WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A BRIEF AND MINOR COOLDOWN INTACT
FOR TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...ALTHOUGH STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS LEESIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM NEVADA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COMBINE WITH SUNNY SKIES TO ONCE AGAIN TO
PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S NOT ONLY ON THURSDAY
BUT FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES BY LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...IT WILL WEAKEN AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST
WITH ITS PASSAGE.

A MUCH STRONGER WAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA OVER
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT
NOW APPEARS WILL APPROACH THE FAR WESTERN CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
AREA AND KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MAKE A STRONGER PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHER END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AFTER HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MIDDLE 80S MOST AREAS...HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD CONSIDERING THE CLOUDS/PRECIP POTENTIAL AND EXPECTED COLD
AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ANY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES
SHOULD EXIT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 70S WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S FOR TUESDAY. 63


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KTOP 160911
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...WHICH WILL
COME TO A STOP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TODAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS TODAY WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A BRIEF AND MINOR COOLDOWN INTACT
FOR TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...ALTHOUGH STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS LEESIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM NEVADA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COMBINE WITH SUNNY SKIES TO ONCE AGAIN TO
PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S NOT ONLY ON THURSDAY
BUT FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES BY LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...IT WILL WEAKEN AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST
WITH ITS PASSAGE.

A MUCH STRONGER WAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA OVER
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT
NOW APPEARS WILL APPROACH THE FAR WESTERN CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
AREA AND KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MAKE A STRONGER PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHER END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AFTER HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MIDDLE 80S MOST AREAS...HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD CONSIDERING THE CLOUDS/PRECIP POTENTIAL AND EXPECTED COLD
AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ANY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES
SHOULD EXIT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 70S WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S FOR TUESDAY. 63


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL
CHANGING OF THE WIND DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
MID DAY ON WED.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDDC 160859
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS
CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.  DRILLING DOWN INTO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A
FAIRLY SMALL UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW (THAT BROUGHT MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS) CENTERED ALONG THE EAST
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER.  IN THE MAIN POLAR WESTERLIES UP NORTH...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.  A COLD FRONT TIED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM WAS PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS.  AS OF 05Z THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS.  WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WERE FAIRLY LIGHT BY GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT STANDARDS
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS FROM
EASTERN COLORADO TO WYOMING AHEAD OF THE SMALL GREAT BASIN UPPER
LOW. THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WHICH PUSHED SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT WILL
DISSOLVE AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  HAVE
NOT REALLY CHANGED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AS THEY STILL LOOK
GOOD WITH THE +21 TO +25C AT 850MB ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DDC
FORECAST AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO 90 FOR
MOST.  AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD COLORADO TONIGHT IT WILL
WEAKEN...BUT LEE TROUGH WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG SO WILL BE
SEEING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT...BUT STILL THINK THAT LOWS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 50S AS
A RULE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

BY THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED
UPSTREAM NEAR THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE LACK OF AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS OF THIS INITIAL SYSTEM, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY LOW. NAM PROGGED CAPE VALUES STAY AT OR UNDER
600 J/KG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HOWEVER, A
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THURSDAY GIVEN INTENSE ELEVATED HEATING AND SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. STRONG
VERTICAL MIXING OF THE MARGINAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DEEP DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 600MB. SO ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT NO HAIL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY FRIDAY. ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY
AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY  EVENING.
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE AGAIN AS LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE SURFACE
DRYLINE WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED. STORM
CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL FRIDAY SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BAND OF 1000 J/KG SURFACE
BASED CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF DODGE CITY WHILE THE NAM HAS
1500 J/KG IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH OF THESE MODELS HINT AT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. SO SMALL STORM CHANCES
SEEM APPROPRIATE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER (45-50F),
BUT STILL VERY MARGINAL BY MAY STANDARDS. A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH ALONG WITH
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (1 INCH OR LESS). STORM CHANCES INCREASE
BY SATURDAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS,
ALBEIT IN WEAKENING FASHION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATION OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND SURFACE DRYLINE AT THIS
TIME, WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH THAN THE GFS. BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM DIGHTON TO DODGE CITY, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
IN THE GFS WERE DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF
VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SO TORNADO CHANCES DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO EXPECTED HIGH CLOUD BASES. BUT LARGE
HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S, WITH THE HOTTER READINGS IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGION
WEST OF THE DRYLINE FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER-MIDWEST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THERE WILL STILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH ALL OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY SUNDAY, IN WHICH CASE THE STORMS SUNDAY WOULD BE
WELL TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

AFTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND GEM
DEVELOP A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WHILE THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. BUT ANY OF THESE SOLUTIONS
WOULD GENERALLY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ABSENCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREATE LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 05Z BUT THE
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WERE BELOW 12 KNOTS.  ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO-WYOMING AND THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  59  89  61 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  89  58  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
EHA  88  57  90  60 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  90  58  92  60 /   0   0  20  20
HYS  87  60  90  62 /   0   0  10  10
P28  88  59  89  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

000
FXUS63 KGLD 160844
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
244 AM MDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT WED MAY 16 2012

0330Z WATER VAPOR INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE THE
HIGH PLAINS...WITH CLOSED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. THIS TROUGH ALREADY
TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND OVERALL
OBSERVED 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS PRETTY WEAK AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. 00Z
RAOBS INDICATE A WARM...WELL MIXED AND STABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VERY DRY AIR/LOW PW`S AT DDC/DNR AND LBF. AT
THE SFC...1021MB SFC HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
WITH COLD FRONT FROM APPROX KLAA TO KSLN TO KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER AND TEMPS
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN UTAH
WILL BE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA AS IT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING ASCENT INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LIFT DOES INCREASE...LITTLE WITH ATMOSPHERE PROCEEDING
INCOMING TROUGH HAVING VERY LARGE TD DEPRESSIONS...THINK IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CHANCE SATURATING/INITIATING ANYTHING UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO
FAVOR EASTERN COLORADO...DO HAVE A FEW CONCERNS ABOUT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ALONG RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE IN EASTERN CWA WHERE MORE
INSTABILITY/BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ARE PRESENT. MAIN ISSUE HERE
WILL BE WHETHER CINH CAN BE OVERCOME AS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 50-150 J/KG RANGE. INITIAL PLAN WAS TO LEAVE OUT...BUT
WANT TO SEE SOME OF THE HIGHER RES DATA BEFORE MAKING A FINAL CALL
HERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS IN AREAS SOUTH OF FRONTAL
ZONE. WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED TO DROP TDS SHARPLY TO SOUTH OF
FRONT AND CURRENT RFW LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. COULD MAKE AN
ARGUMENT FOR EXTENDING IT TO THE NORTH...BUT WITH RECENT RELATIVE
GREENNESS DATA SHOWING THINGS GREENING UP QUITE A BIT IN CHEYENNE
KS...THINK A WARNING NOT NEEDED AS FUELS MAY NOT BE CRITICAL.

OVERNIGHT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF SYSTEM RESULTS IN MUCH WEAKER AND A MORE
FURTHER WEST/SOUTH AREA OF MAXIMUM ASCENT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...CONFIDENCE MUCH LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIP COVERAGE AND OVERALL CHANCES. HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY STORMS
WILL MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN THE VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES AND DO NOT THINK GOING
HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES AT THIS POINT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH Q
VECTOR FIELDS SUGGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING NOT
ALL THAT GREAT...INSTABILITY VALUES HIGHER AND WITH TEMPS ALOFT
COOLER CINH VALUES WEAKER. MOISTURE RETURN CONCERNS STILL EXIST FOR
PERIOD AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE
RETURN...SO THINK LIMITING POPS TO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE IN ORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT WED MAY 16 2012

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BRINGING AN END TO ANY
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND INTO COLORADO BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH UPPER TROUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE AREA DIRECTLY UNTIL AROUND 12Z WHEN COLD
FRONT ENTERS CWA...HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO THE  SOUTH OF
SFC LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO/NEB PANHANDLE. MOISTURE
ADVECTION LOOKS A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM WITH TDS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S EXPECTED EAST OF DRY LINE. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS...THINK PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW
FOR THE TIME BEING AS HIGHEST TDS/INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL TO THE
EAST OF BEST SFC CONVERGENCE AND WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING NOT
BECOMING STRONG UNTIL AROUND 12Z THINK SFC FEATURES WILL BE PRIMARY
MEANS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF SFC TROUGH INCREASING
SHARPLY AROUND 00Z. STILL A FAIRLY LARGE DISCREPANCY ON HOW STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY TYPE WINDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT KEEPING LOWS MUCH WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS STAY IN THE 60S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS BEFORE SWINGING UP INTO NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. DRY SLOT APPEARS TO DEVELOP AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...AM NOT EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING WITH NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. COULD
SEE A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS WEDNESDAY WITH JUST A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF
THIS EFFECTIVE PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT WED MAY 16 2012

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS A DEVELOPING
SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH TO THE AREA
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. BASED ON LATEST FUEL REPORTS AND AVAILABLE SATELITE
GREENESS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS ARE NOT AVAILABLE.

AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CRITICAL
VALUES ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ013-027.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/PM
AVIATION...FOLTZ
FIRE WEATHER...JRM

000
FXUS63 KICT 160825
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

EARLY THIS MORNING A SHARP MID-UPR TROF EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES THEN ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. A WEAK SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE & WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT S/SE ACROSS
CNTRL KS. THE MID-UPR OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS BEEN MOVING E OVER THE CNTRL
& SRN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A MID-UPR SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS
IN ITS WAKE.

*CORRECTED 5TH LINE OF TEXT.*

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY & TONIGHT:
THE EWD MOVING MID-UPR RIDGE INSURES CLEAR WEATHER FOR BOTH PERIODS. THE
APPROACHINNG MID TO UPR SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE SUFFICIENT EWD PROGRESS TO
INDUCE WRN PLAINS SFC TROFFING WHICH`LL INDUCE WINDS TO GRADUALLY BECOME
SELY TODAY & SLY TONIGHT.

THU-FRI NGT:
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER ALL AREAS AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
SHEARS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MASSIVE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERING THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS.

THIS WEEKEND:
TSRA CHANCES STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE WRN NEBRASKA & WRN KS ON SAT AS A
A DEEPER & MUCH STRONGER MID-UPR TROF DIGS ALMOST DUE S OVER THE ROCKIES
ON FRI. LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR THIS TROF WILL SHEAR AS IT CROSSES KS SAT &
SAT NGT BUT WILL STILL BE OF SUFFICIENT INTENSITY TO SWEEP A COLD FRONT
SE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...CNTRL KS SAT & SAT NGT. THE FRONT WILL FIND
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE TSRA OVER MUCH OF KS THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH AXIS OF TSRA SHIFTING SE AS THE FRONT MOVES IN LIKE MANNER
ACROSS SE KS SUN AFTERNOON & EVENING. WITH THE MID-UPR WAVE SHEARING AS
IT SURGES E/NE TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY THE CHANCES FOR SVR TSRA WOULD
BE VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THINKING ON 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
N/NE DURING THE NIGHT AT KHUT/KICT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KCNU.
ON WED...FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER AT ALL SITES DURING THE DAY.  FEW
CUMULUS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KRSL/KHUT/KICT/KSLN WITH
MODEST 850MB MOISTURE AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  60  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      87  60  87  64 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          85  61  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        84  60  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         88  61  89  65 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      90  60  88  65 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          85  60  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       86  61  86  64 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     84  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         82  58  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            81  57  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    83  58  85  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDDC 160823
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS
CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.  DRILLING DOWN INTO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A
FAIRLY SMALL UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW (THAT BROUGHT MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS) CENTERED ALONG THE EAST
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER.  IN THE MAIN POLAR WESTERLIES UP NORTH...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.  A COLD FRONT TIED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM WAS PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS.  AS OF 05Z THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS.  WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WERE FAIRLY LIGHT BY GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT STANDARDS
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS FROM
EASTERN COLORADO TO WYOMING AHEAD OF THE SMALL GREAT BASIN UPPER
LOW. THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WHICH PUSHED SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT WILL
DISSOLVE AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  HAVE
NOT REALLY CHANGED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AS THEY STILL LOOK
GOOD WITH THE +21 TO +25C AT 850MB ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DDC
FORECAST AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO 90 FOR
MOST.  AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD COLORADO TONIGHT IT WILL
WEAKEN...BUT LEE TROUGH WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG SO WILL BE
SEEING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT...BUT STILL THINK THAT LOWS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 50S AS
A RULE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THEN INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL IN TURN INTENSIFY LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
BECOME WINDY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS SET UP CONTINUES A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK VERY DRY.  NEVERTHELESS, I HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH 850 TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS ARE
FORECASTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY MORNING AND RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE FORECASTED
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S.

MID RANGE MODELS ARE THEN SUGGESTING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY, THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY,
THEN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
DAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRYLINE PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
THIS SYSTEM PANS OUT AS PLANNED, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL. AS OF NOW,
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS WEAK AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS AREA SUNDAY THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
PROGGED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SATURDAY MORNING THEN
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED MODELS THEN SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL
TOUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN PACIFIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS KIND OF WEATHER
PATTERN. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE LOWER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY INCREASE CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL OCCUR AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE MODEL
RUNS TO SEE IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ABSENCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREATE LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 05Z BUT THE
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WERE BELOW 12 KNOTS.  ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO-WYOMING AND THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  56  89  61 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  90  55  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
EHA  87  54  90  60 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  90  55  92  60 /   0   0  20  20
HYS  88  57  90  62 /   0   0  10  10
P28  89  56  89  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA 42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

000
FXUS63 KICT 160805
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

EARLY THIS MORNING A SHARP MID-UPR TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES THEN ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. A WEAK SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE & WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT S/SE ACROSS
CNTRL KS. THE MID-UPR OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS BEEN MOVING E OVER THE CNTRL
& SRN ROCKIES CONTINUES IS SLOWLOY WEAKENING AS A MID-UPR SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE.

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY & TONIGHT:
THE EWD MOVING MID-UPR RIDGE INSURES CLEAR WEATHER. THE APPROACHINNG MID
TO UPR SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE SUFFICIENT EWD PROGRESS TO INDUCE WRN PLAINS
SFC TROFFING WHICH`LL INDUCE WINDS TO GRADUALLY BECOME SELY TODAY & SLY
TONIGHT.

THU-FRI NGT:
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER ALL AREAS AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
SHEARS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MASSIVE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERING THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS.

THIS WEEKEND:
TSRA CHANCES STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE WRN NEBRASKA & WRN KS ON SAT AS A
A DEEPER & MUCH STRONGER MID-UPR TROF DIGS ALMOST DUE S OVER THE ROCKIES
ON FRI. LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR THIS TROF WILL SHEAR AS IT CROSSES KS SAT &
SAT NGT BUT WILL STILL BE OF SUFFICIENT INTENSITY TO SWEEP A COLD FRONT
SE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...CNTRL KS SAT & SAT NGT. THE FRONT WILL FIND
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE TSRA OVER MUCH OF KS THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH AXIS OF TSRA SHIFTING SE AS THE FRONT MOVES IN LIKE MANNER
ACROSS SE KS SUN AFTERNOON & EVENING. WITH THE MID-UPR WAVE SHEARING AS
IT SURGES E/NE TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY THE CHANCES FOR SVR TSRA WOULD
BE VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THINKING ON 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
N/NE DURING THE NIGHT AT KHUT/KICT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KCNU.
ON WED...FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER AT ALL SITES DURING THE DAY.  FEW
CUMULUS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KRSL/KHUT/KICT/KSLN WITH
MODEST 850MB MOISTURE AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  60  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      87  60  87  64 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          85  61  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        84  60  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         88  61  89  65 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      90  60  88  65 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          85  60  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       86  61  86  64 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     84  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         82  58  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            81  57  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    83  58  85  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDDC 160550
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1250 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

...UPDATED THE SYNOPSIS SECTION AND AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS
CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.  DRILLING DOWN INTO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A
FAIRLY SMALL UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW (THAT BROUGHT MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS) CENTERED ALONG THE EAST
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER.  IN THE MAIN POLAR WESTERLIES UP NORTH...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.  A COLD FRONT TIED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM WAS PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS.  AS OF 05Z THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS.  WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WERE FAIRLY LIGHT BY GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT STANDARDS
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

BY EARLY TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME BRIEFLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. BASED ON SOME COOLER AIR
FILTERING INTO NORTHERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
FAVOR THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE OF UPPER 40S FOR LOWS NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS NEBRASKA. ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS
THE EAST CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AT 00Z THURSDAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 20 TO 25C. GIVEN THE MIXING POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WILL USE THIS AS A GUIDE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WOULD YIELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 87 TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THEN INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL IN TURN INTENSIFY LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
BECOME WINDY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS SET UP CONTINUES A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK VERY DRY.  NEVERTHELESS, I HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH 850 TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS ARE
FORECASTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY MORNING AND RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE FORECASTED
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S.

MID RANGE MODELS ARE THEN SUGGESTING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY, THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY,
THEN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
DAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRYLINE PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
THIS SYSTEM PANS OUT AS PLANNED, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL. AS OF NOW,
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS WEAK AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS AREA SUNDAY THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
PROGGED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SATURDAY MORNING THEN
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED MODELS THEN SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL
TOUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN PACIFIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS KIND OF WEATHER
PATTERN. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE LOWER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY INCREASE CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL OCCUR AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE MODEL
RUNS TO SEE IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ABSENCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREATE LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 05Z BUT THE
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WERE BELOW 12 KNOTS.  ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO-WYOMING AND THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  89  61  90 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  58  91  59  92 /   0  30  30  10
EHA  57  90  57  94 /   0  30  20  10
LBL  58  92  59  93 /   0  30  20  10
HYS  60  90  62  89 /   0  10  10  10
P28  59  89  65  88 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA 42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

000
FXUS63 KTOP 160505
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1205 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
12Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOW STRONGEST JET ENERGY IN AND NEAR THE CONUS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROF IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
GREATEST 12-HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WERE TO ITS EAST. 850MB TEMPS IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAD FALLEN NEARLY 10C FROM THEIR 0Z LEVELS
BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PUT THE
COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
DEWPOINTS ALONG IT MIXING INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S. CUMULUS FIELD
HAS DEVELOPED AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CENTRAL IOWA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW WITH THIS MODIFIED
CANADIAN FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER
DRY...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG IT WILL WANE AS THE GREAT LAKES TROF
SHIFTS EAST. NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
EAST...WITH RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPENED OVER THE FRONT RANGE...WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ALONG THE OLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOISTURE ABLE TO POOL ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER MEAGER...AND LIKELY BE TOO WEAK FOR STORMS TO
FORM. EVEN IF THEY WERE TO DO SO...DEEP LAYER WINDS WOULD PUSH THEM
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...OUT OF THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS TAKE A BIT OF A HIT
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ALONG WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

65

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND WARM. A
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINOR.
SO WITH A SFC TROUGH STILL WELL TO THE WEST AND NO OTHER FEATURE TO
LIFT A SFC PARCEL...THINK CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LESS THAT 20
PERCENT. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEP A WARM MIXED AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AS THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TRANSITIONS WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS. AM A LITTLE
HESITANT TO START THINKING ABOUT LIKELY POPS SIMPLY BECAUSE THE
FRONT TIMING AND SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT APPEAR TO BE OUT OF PHASE.
SO THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE
LIFT FROM THE FRONT MOVES IN. TEMPS SHOULD COOL DOWN DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS FOR MONDAY
LIMITING THEM TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. THE GFS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE BOUNDARY. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY...THE
WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TEMPS TO
MODERATE AND WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WOLTERS


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL
CHANGING OF THE WIND DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
MID DAY ON WED.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KICT 160444
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THINKING ON 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
N/NE DURING THE NIGHT AT KHUT/KICT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KCNU.
ON WED...FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER AT ALL SITES DURING THE DAY.  FEW
CUMULUS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KRSL/KHUT/KICT/KSLN WITH
MODEST 850MB MOISTURE AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING. -HOWERTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED
WITH FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON
WED. FEW CUMULUS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KHUT/KICT/KSLN.
-HOWERTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

SYNOPSIS:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER MUCH SMALLER PIECE OF ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN
NV. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN WI INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND BECOMES MORE OF A TROUGH INTO CENTRAL KS.

TONIGHT-WED:
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH WILL STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ALSO DIVE SOME UPPER ENERGY OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO ON WED...FEEL THAT THEY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY ARE TODAY WHICH WILL PLACE MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THU-FRI:
THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE WHETHER THE WEAK
UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE SOME PRECIP. BY THU MORNING THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS OF EASTERN CO AND WILL BE OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY THU NIGHT. AT THIS TIME GOING WITH THE THINKING
THAT THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE TOO DRY FOR THIS FEATURE TO GENERATE
PRECIP SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.  THE BIGGEST CHANGE
FOR THU AND FRI WILL BE THE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. IT`S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR FRI
AFTERNOON IF THE MODELS CONTINUE ON THE SAME PATH. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR BOTH OF THESE
DAYS...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG RETURN FLOW AND BETTER MIXING.

SAT-TUE:
BY SAT MORNING SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT
SW AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SAT EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUE
TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME PRECIP
AROUND...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER DYNAMICS. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPPER FORCING. SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ON
SUN INTO SUN EVENING...WITH SE KS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO
EXPERIENCE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT THEY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...EVEN WITH THE
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND.

LAWSON

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO
ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VARIABLE WINDS.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  86  59  87 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          56  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        56  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         50  87  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      50  87  59  89 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          53  87  60  88 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       56  86  59  87 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         56  84  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            56  84  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGLD 152353
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH DEEP UPPER LOW UPSTREAM OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF OUR
CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR CWA IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S...AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING TD NORTH OF THE FRONT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. IF TD VALUES IN THE LOW-MID 40S WERE
TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...RADIATIONAL FOG
COULDN`T BE RULED OUT. GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING BL REMAINING
UNSATURATED THROUGH WED MORNING...SO FOG WAS LEFT OUT OF
FORECAST.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY WED AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL TREND IS TO SLOW DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...SO I LIMITED SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION CLOSER TO 00Z OVER NW PART OF YUMA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION START DURING
THE EARLY EVENING AS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM 550 MB ON UP BEGIN TO
SATURATE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF YUMA COUNTY.  WITH 100J/KG OF
700-500MB MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE VICINITY AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED DURING THE EARLY EVENING...AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE 600MB AND A LOBE OF 500MB VORTICITY
MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...HAVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAKING AT THIS TIME THEN DECLINING TOWARDS
MORNING AS THE 500MB VORTICITY AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NEBRASKA.  WITH A DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE...AM NOT TOO
CONFIDENT THAT ANY RAINFALL PRODUCED WILL MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
FROM OCCURRING.

THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND
EXITING THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING.  LATEST NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
TRACK OF THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS.  AS
SUCH HAVE SHIFTED THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS
THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THE AREA OF 500MB VORTICITY BECOMES MORE
DISJOINTED.  IN ADDITION THE DEEP DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE SLIGHT CATEGORY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS 500MB VORTICITY
SPREADS NORTH WHILE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF A RUSSELL SPRINGS TO MCCOOK LINE AHEAD
OF A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PRODUCING
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FOR THE ABOVE LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL DECLINE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION.

FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ON MONDAY.
THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONT.  AS A RESULT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SATURDAY...MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  A DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY...DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THAT AREA.  A MINOR SHORT WAVE THROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING WITH NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. COULD
SEE A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS WEDNESDAY WITH JUST A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF
THIS EFFECTIVE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WED WAS UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING...WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGH IN RFW CRITERIA BEING MET. WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE WELL WITHIN CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THERE WERE SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TO
RH...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO POSSIBLY BRINGING
HIGHER TD VALUES INTO WESTERN PARTS OF CWA. EVEN IF MIXING WERE TO
BE LIMITED IN THE WEST AND TD VALUES REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER...RH
VALUES AROUND 15-17% WOULD STILL BE EXPECTED. BASED ON LOWER MODEL
TRENDS AND BETTER MIXING...CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS RH 12-15%. WITH
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...RFW CRITERIA IS LIKELY UNDER EITHER
SCENARIO.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF A
RUSSELL SPRINGS TO MCCOOK LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST FUEL STATUS FOR THE NORTON AND HILL CITY AREA WHERE WINDS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST INDICATES THE FUELS ARE STILL GREEN ENOUGH
NOT TO BE A CONCERN...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ013-027.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ252>254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FOLTZ
FIRE WEATHER...DR/JTL

000
FXUS63 KTOP 152328
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
628 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
12Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOW STRONGEST JET ENERGY IN AND NEAR THE CONUS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROF IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
GREATEST 12-HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WERE TO ITS EAST. 850MB TEMPS IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAD FALLEN NEARLY 10C FROM THEIR 0Z LEVELS
BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PUT THE
COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
DEWPOINTS ALONG IT MIXING INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S. CUMULUS FIELD
HAS DEVELOPED AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CENTRAL IOWA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW WITH THIS MODIFIED
CANADIAN FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER
DRY...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG IT WILL WANE AS THE GREAT LAKES TROF
SHIFTS EAST. NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
EAST...WITH RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPENED OVER THE FRONT RANGE...WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ALONG THE OLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOISTURE ABLE TO POOL ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER MEAGER...AND LIKELY BE TOO WEAK FOR STORMS TO
FORM. EVEN IF THEY WERE TO DO SO...DEEP LAYER WINDS WOULD PUSH THEM
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...OUT OF THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS TAKE A BIT OF A HIT
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ALONG WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

65

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND WARM. A
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINOR.
SO WITH A SFC TROUGH STILL WELL TO THE WEST AND NO OTHER FEATURE TO
LIFT A SFC PARCEL...THINK CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LESS THAT 20
PERCENT. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEP A WARM MIXED AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AS THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TRANSITIONS WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS. AM A LITTLE
HESITANT TO START THINKING ABOUT LIKELY POPS SIMPLY BECAUSE THE
FRONT TIMING AND SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT APPEAR TO BE OUT OF PHASE.
SO THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE
LIFT FROM THE FRONT MOVES IN. TEMPS SHOULD COOL DOWN DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS FOR MONDAY
LIMITING THEM TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. THE GFS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE BOUNDARY. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY...THE
WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TEMPS TO
MODERATE AND WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WOLTERS


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH NO
CHANGE IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W-NW TO START
THE PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH THEN N-NE BY MID
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KICT 152314
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
614 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED
WITH FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON
WED. FEW CUMULUS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KHUT/KICT/KSLN.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

SYNOPSIS:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER MUCH SMALLER PIECE OF ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN
NV. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN WI INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND BECOMES MORE OF A TROUGH INTO CENTRAL KS.

TONIGHT-WED:
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH WILL STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ALSO DIVE SOME UPPER ENERGY OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO ON WED...FEEL THAT THEY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY ARE TODAY WHICH WILL PLACE MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THU-FRI:
THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE WHETHER THE WEAK
UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE SOME PRECIP. BY THU MORNING THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS OF EASTERN CO AND WILL BE OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY THU NIGHT. AT THIS TIME GOING WITH THE THINKING
THAT THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE TOO DRY FOR THIS FEATURE TO GENERATE
PRECIP SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.  THE BIGGEST CHANGE
FOR THU AND FRI WILL BE THE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. IT`S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR FRI
AFTERNOON IF THE MODELS CONTINUE ON THE SAME PATH. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR BOTH OF THESE
DAYS...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG RETURN FLOW AND BETTER MIXING.

SAT-TUE:
BY SAT MORNING SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT
SW AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SAT EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUE
TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME PRECIP
AROUND...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER DYNAMICS. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPPER FORCING. SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ON
SUN INTO SUN EVENING...WITH SE KS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO
EXPERIENCE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT THEY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...EVEN WITH THE
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND.

LAWSON

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO
ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VARIABLE WINDS.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  86  59  87 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          56  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        56  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         50  87  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      50  87  59  89 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          53  87  60  88 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       56  86  59  87 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         56  84  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            56  84  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDDC 152237
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
537 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE AND DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THIS MORNING AT 12Z AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
CANADA SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE AT 15Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND THIS FRONT 3 TO 5 MB 3 HOURS PRESSURE
RISES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT A WEDGE OF WARM (+17 TO +20C) 850MB
TEMPERATURES STRETCHED FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST A -15C 500MB UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR EAST CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH 60KT JET STREAK LOCATED IN THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

BY EARLY TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME BRIEFLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. BASED ON SOME COOLER AIR
FILTERING INTO NORTHERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
FAVOR THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE OF UPPER 40S FOR LOWS NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS NEBRASKA. ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS
THE EAST CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AT 00Z THURSDAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 20 TO 25C. GIVEN THE MIXING POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WILL USE THIS AS A GUIDE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WOULD YIELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 87 TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THEN INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL IN TURN INTENSIFY LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
BECOME WINDY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS SET UP CONTINUES A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK VERY DRY.  NEVERTHELESS, I HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH 850 TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS ARE
FORECASTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY MORNING AND RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE FORECASTED
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S.

MID RANGE MODELS ARE THEN SUGGESTING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY, THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY,
THEN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
DAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRYLINE PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
THIS SYSTEM PANS OUT AS PLANNED, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL. AS OF NOW,
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS WEAK AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS AREA SUNDAY THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
PROGGED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SATURDAY MORNING THEN
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED MODELS THEN SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL
TOUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN PACIFIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS KIND OF WEATHER
PATTERN. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE LOWER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY INCREASE CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL OCCUR AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE MODEL
RUNS TO SEE IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT AND BECOME A
STATIONARY FRONT AS IT DIPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE WIND AT KHYS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT, BUT WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  88  59  89 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  48  89  58  91 /   0   0   0  30
EHA  51  88  57  90 /   0   0   0  30
LBL  49  90  58  92 /   0   0   0  30
HYS  47  87  60  90 /   0   0   0  10
P28  52  88  59  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA 42
AVIATION...BURKE

000
FXUS63 KGLD 152043
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH DEEP UPPER LOW UPSTREAM OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF OUR
CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR CWA IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S...AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING TD NORTH OF THE FRONT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. IF TD VALUES IN THE LOW-MID 40S WERE
TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...RADIATIONAL FOG
COULDNT BE RULED OUT. GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING BL REMAINING
UNSATURATED THROUGH WED MORNING...SO FOG WAS LEFT OUT OF
FORECAST.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY WED AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL TREND IS TO SLOW DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...SO I LIMITED SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION CLOSER TO 00Z OVER NW PART OF YUMA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION START DURING
THE EARLY EVENING AS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM 550 MB ON UP BEGIN TO
SATURATE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF YUMA COUNTY.  WITH 100J/KG OF
700-500MB MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE VICINITY AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED DURING THE EARLY EVENING...AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE 600MB AND A LOBE OF 500MB VORTICITY
MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...HAVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAKING AT THIS TIME THEN DECLINING TOWARDS
MORNING AS THE 500MB VORTICITY AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NEBRASKA.  WITH A DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE...AM NOT TOO
CONFIDENT THAT ANY RAINFALL PRODUCED WILL MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
FROM OCCURRING.

THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND
EXITING THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING.  LATEST NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
TRACK OF THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS.  AS
SUCH HAVE SHIFTED THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS
THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THE AREA OF 500MB VORTICITY BECOMES MORE
DISJOINTED.  IN ADDITION THE DEEP DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE SLIGHT CATEGORY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS 500MB VORTICITY
SPREADS NORTH WHILE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF A RUSSELL SPRINGS TO MCCOOK LINE AHEAD
OF A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PRODUCING
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FOR THE ABOVE LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL DECLINE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION.

FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ON MONDAY.
THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONT.  AS A RESULT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SATURDAY...MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  A DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY...DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THAT AREA.  A MINOR SHORT WAVE THROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. COLD FRONT ALREADY DROPPING SOUTH OVER KMCK WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS 15-17KT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VARIABLE AT KGLD THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN FRONT DROPS
JUST EAST OF TERMINAL AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
10KT. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT LEADING TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING BY 18Z. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 18Z...SO I
ONLY SHOWED INCREASING TREND AFTER 15Z IN THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WED WAS UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING...WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGH IN RFW CRITERIA BEING MET. WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE WELL WITHIN CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THERE WERE SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TO
RH...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO POSSIBLY BRINGING
HIGHER TD VALUES INTO WESTERN PARTS OF CWA. EVEN IF MIXING WERE TO
BE LIMITED IN THE WEST AND TD VALUES REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER...RH
VALUES AROUND 15-17% WOULD STILL BE EXPECTED. BASED ON LOWER MODEL
TRENDS AND BETTER MIXING...CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS RH 12-15%. WITH
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...RFW CRITERIA IS LIKELY UNDER EITHER
SCENARIO.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF A
RUSSELL SPRINGS TO MCCOOK LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST FUEL STATUS FOR THE NORTON AND HILL CITY AREA WHERE WINDS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST INDICATES THE FUELS ARE STILL GREEN ENOUGH
NOT TO BE A CONCERN...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ013-027.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ252>254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR/JTL

000
FXUS63 KICT 152023
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

SYNOPSIS:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER MUCH SMALLER PIECE OF ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN
NV. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN WI INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND BECOMES MORE OF A TROUGH INTO CENTRAL KS.

TONIGHT-WED:
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH WILL STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ALSO DIVE SOME UPPER ENERGY OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO ON WED...FEEL THAT THEY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY ARE TODAY WHICH WILL PLACE MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THU-FRI:
THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE WHETHER THE WEAK
UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE SOME PRECIP. BY THU MORNING THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS OF EASTERN CO AND WILL BE OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY THU NIGHT. AT THIS TIME GOING WITH THE THINKING
THAT THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE TOO DRY FOR THIS FEATURE TO GENERATE
PRECIP SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.  THE BIGGEST CHANGE
FOR THU AND FRI WILL BE THE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. IT`S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR FRI
AFTERNOON IF THE MODELS CONTINUE ON THE SAME PATH. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR BOTH OF THESE
DAYS...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG RETURN FLOW AND BETTER MIXING.

SAT-TUE:
BY SAT MORNING SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT
SW AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SAT EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUE
TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME PRECIP
AROUND...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER DYNAMICS. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPPER FORCING. SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ON
SUN INTO SUN EVENING...WITH SE KS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO
EXPERIENCE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT THEY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...EVEN WITH THE
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO
ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VARIABLE WINDS.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  86  59  87 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          56  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        56  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         50  87  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      50  87  59  89 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          53  87  60  88 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       56  86  59  87 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         56  84  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            56  84  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDDC 152015
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THIS MORNING AT 12Z AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
CANADA SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE AT 15Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND THIS FRONT 3 TO 5 MB 3 HOURS PRESSURE
RISES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT A WEDGE OF WARM (+17 TO +20C) 850MB
TEMPERATURES STRETCHED FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST A -15C 500MB UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR EAST CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH 60KT JET STREAK LOCATED IN THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

BY EARLY TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME BRIEFLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. BASED ON SOME COOLER AIR
FILTERING INTO NORTHERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
FAVOR THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE OF UPPER 40S FOR LOWS NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS NEBRASKA. ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS
THE EAST CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AT 00Z THURSDAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 20 TO 25C. GIVEN THE MIXING POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WILL USE THIS AS A GUIDE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WOULD YIELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 87 TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THEN INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL IN TURN INTENSIFY LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
BECOME WINDY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS SET UP CONTINUES A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK VERY DRY.  NEVERTHELESS, I HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH 850 TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS ARE
FORECASTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY MORNING AND RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE FORECASTED
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S.

MID RANGE MODELS ARE THEN SUGGESTING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY, THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY,
THEN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
DAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRYLINE PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
THIS SYSTEM PANS OUT AS PLANNED, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL. AS OF NOW,
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS WEAK AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS AREA SUNDAY THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
PROGGED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SATURDAY MORNING THEN
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED MODELS THEN SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL
TOUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN PACIFIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS KIND OF WEATHER
PATTERN. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE LOWER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY INCREASE CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL OCCUR AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE MODEL
RUNS TO SEE IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS NEAR
THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10KTS OR LESS. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  88  57  89 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  52  89  57  91 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  52  88  56  91 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  52  90  57  92 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  52  87  59  89 /   0   0   0  10
P28  55  88  59  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA 42
AVIATION...BURGERT

000
FXUS63 KTOP 152008
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
308 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
12Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOW STRONGEST JET ENERGY IN AND NEAR THE CONUS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROF IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
GREATEST 12-HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WERE TO ITS EAST. 850MB TEMPS IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAD FALLEN NEARLY 10C FROM THEIR 0Z LEVELS
BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PUT THE
COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
DEWPOINTS ALONG IT MIXING INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S. CUMULUS FIELD
HAS DEVELOPED AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CENTRAL IOWA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW WITH THIS MODIFIED
CANADIAN FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER
DRY...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG IT WILL WANE AS THE GREAT LAKES TROF
SHIFTS EAST. NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
EAST...WITH RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPENED OVER THE FRONT RANGE...WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ALONG THE OLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOISTURE ABLE TO POOL ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER MEAGER...AND LIKELY BE TOO WEAK FOR STORMS TO
FORM. EVEN IF THEY WERE TO DO SO...DEEP LAYER WINDS WOULD PUSH THEM
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...OUT OF THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS TAKE A BIT OF A HIT
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ALONG WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

65

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND WARM. A
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINOR.
SO WITH A SFC TROUGH STILL WELL TO THE WEST AND NO OTHER FEATURE TO
LIFT A SFC PARCEL...THINK CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LESS THAT 20
PERCENT. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEP A WARM MIXED AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AS THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TRANSITIONS WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS. AM A LITTLE
HESITANT TO START THINKING ABOUT LIKELY POPS SIMPLY BECAUSE THE
FRONT TIMING AND SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT APPEAR TO BE OUT OF PHASE.
SO THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE
LIFT FROM THE FRONT MOVES IN. TEMPS SHOULD COOL DOWN DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS FOR MONDAY
LIMITING THEM TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. THE GFS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE BOUNDARY. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY...THE
WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TEMPS TO
MODERATE AND WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WOLTERS

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND SPEEDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
FOR THIS FORECAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WEAK
FRONT PASSES AROUND 05Z. DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP PREVENT TSRA
WITH THIS FRONT.

65

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGLD 151850
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH DEEP UPPER LOW UPSTREAM OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF OUR
CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR CWA IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S...AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING TD NORTH OF THE FRONT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. IF TD VALUES IN THE LOW-MID 40S WERE
TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...RADIATIONAL FOG
COULDNT BE RULED OUT. GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING BL REMAINING
UNSATURATED THROUGH WED MORNING...SO FOG WAS LEFT OUT OF
FORECAST.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY WED AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL TREND IS TO SLOW DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...SO I LIMITED SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION CLOSER TO 00Z OVER NW PART OF YUMA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS PV ADVECTION INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE FORCING LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
PRECIPITATION THREAT...HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE/LIKELY HOOD ANY
PORTION OF AIR MASS WILL SATURATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
GIVEN MEAGER QPF OUTPUT FROM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND OVERALL LOW POPS
FROM ENSEMBLE DATA. WHILE THESE FACTORS LIMIT CONFIDENCE...THINK
SMALL POPS WARRANTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH PV ANOMALY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. POTENTIAL
LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...BUT EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
IN THE MORNING AND EXPECTED POSITION OF UPPER TROUGHS HAVE TO MANY
CONCERNS ABOUT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL LOCATION OF THE
FRONT TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE HIGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. COLD FRONT ALREADY DROPPING SOUTH OVER KMCK WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS 15-17KT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VARIABLE AT KGLD THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN FRONT DROPS
JUST EAST OF TERMINAL AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
10KT. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT LEADING TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING BY 18Z. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 18Z...SO I
ONLY SHOWED INCREASING TREND AFTER 15Z IN THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WED WAS UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING...WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGH IN RFW CRITERIA BEING MET. WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE WELL WITHIN CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THERE WERE SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TO
RH...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO POSSIBLY BRINGING
HIGHER TD VALUES INTO WESTERN PARTS OF CWA. EVEN IF MIXING WERE TO
BE LIMITED IN THE WEST AND TD VALUES REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER...RH
VALUES AROUND 15-17% WOULD STILL BE EXPECTED. BASED ON LOWER MODEL
TRENDS AND BETTER MIXING...CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS RH 12-15%. WITH
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...RFW CRITERIA IS LIKELY UNDER EITHER
SCENARIO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ013-027.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ252>254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM/PM
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR

000
FXUS63 KDDC 151829
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
129 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THIS MORNING AT 12Z AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
CANADA SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE AT 15Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND THIS FRONT 3 TO 5 MB 3 HOURS PRESSURE
RISES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT A WEDGE OF WARM (+17 TO +20C) 850MB
TEMPERATURES STRETCHED FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST A -15C 500MB UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR EAST CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH 60KT JET STREAK LOCATED IN THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

BY EARLY TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME BRIEFLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. BASED ON SOME COOLER AIR
FILTERING INTO NORTHERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
FAVOR THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE OF UPPER 40S FOR LOWS NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS NEBRASKA. ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS
THE EAST CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AT 00Z THURSDAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 20 TO 25C. GIVEN THE MIXING POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WILL USE THIS AS A GUIDE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WOULD YIELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 87 TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THAT AFFECTED THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL PROGRESS INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO SHUNT ANY DEEP
MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A LARGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG OR JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KTS AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER, THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL NOT EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO TAP THE RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY
THURSDAY THIS WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS OF
THIS SYSTEM, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER, A HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN WESTERN KANSAS LATE
THURSDAY. NOTE THAT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL-MOISTURE ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO, SO THE NAM/ECMWF WERE PREFERRED. STRONG VERTICAL MIXING OF
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DEEP DRY ADIABATIC LAYER
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700MB. SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATED
BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD TEND TO BE MIXED OUT QUICKLY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TEND TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL
BE VERY WARM AS LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
SHOULD BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE SURFACE DRYLINE WHERE THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE INSTEAD OF SOUTHERLY. STORM CHANCES
LOOK VERY SMALL FRIDAY SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN
TOO FAR WEST. BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THERE IS
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. DUE TO THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY THIS TIME, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE
SEVERE. HOWEVER, HIGH-END SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
ARE UNLIKELY SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL NOT BE ALL THAT
RICH. STORM CHANCES INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS THIS UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THIS
TIME, WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THAN THE GFS.
BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM.
THESE STORMS HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BEING SEVERE GIVEN THAT
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED BY THE ECMWF (WHICH TENDS TO BE CONSERVATIVE
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN) TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WARM AS
FRIDAY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE DRYLINE. TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE,
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER, RESULTING IN LOWER
MIX-DOWN TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE, DEWPOINTS
WILL BE HIGHER AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
UPPER-MIDWEST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY.

AFTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. BUT THERE IS A
GENERAL TENDENCY IN THE MODELS FOR UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, WHICH WOULD PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS NEAR
THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10KTS OR LESS. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  88  57  89 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  52  89  57  91 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  52  88  56  91 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  52  90  57  92 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  52  87  59  89 /   0   0   0  10
P28  55  88  59  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT

000
FXUS63 KICT 151826
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
126 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS MAXIMUM
INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE UPPER
80S BY 18Z. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS IN CENTRAL KANSAS UP TO THE LOW
90S.

BILLINGS

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO
ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VARIABLE WINDS.

BILLINGS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. DUE TO RATHER
LIMITED MOISTURE NO RAINFALL AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.

KED

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-THU NGT:
THE PROGGED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS STAYING "ON COURSE". THE AFORE-MENTIONED
OMEGA BLOCK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TOWARD THE CNTRL & SRN PLAINS AS MID
TO UPR LOW...SITUATED OVER NRN CA...VENTURES E TOWARD THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
STILL EXPECT THE UPR DECK PATTERN TO DEAMPLIFY FOR AS THE LOW APPROACHES
THE OMEGA BLOCK IT`LL TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE OMEGA BLOCK
WILL BREAK DOWN AS IT SPREAD E ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS A RESULT NICE
WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.

NEXT WEEKEND:
STILL EXPECT THE MID-UPR WAVE TO SHEAR WHILE ACCELERATING NE FROM NRN KS
TO SRN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...AN UPSTREAM MID-UPR TROF STILL EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN MARKEDLY AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THIS MUCH STRONGER TROF WILL
LIKEWISE INDUCE PRONOUNCED WRN PLAINS SFC TROFFING FRI & FRI NGT THEREBY
ENABLING HIGHER OCTANE FUEL TO SURGE N ACROSS KS. THE MUCH STRONGER WAVE
WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT SE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...MOST OF KS SAT & SAT
NGT. HOW FAR SE THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS IS THE KEY QUESTION. THE GFS IS
NOW TAKING THE BOUNDARY INTO MO WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. WITH A HIGH
AMPLTIUDE MID-UPR RIDGE COVERING THE ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WOULD EXPECT
THE SRN SEGMENT OF THE WAVE TO SHEAR AS IT VENTURES OVER KS. AS SUCH AM
INCLINED TO BIAS TOWARD THE ECMWF. TRANSLATION: TSRA SHOULD INCREASE SAT
NGT & CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NGT. ONLY CHANGE TO THESE PERIODS WAS TO
SHIFT AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) SLIGHTLY SE DURING THESE PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      85  56  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          84  58  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        83  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  57  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         87  55  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      88  55  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          86  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       85  57  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     81  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         81  56  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            81  56  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    81  55  84  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGLD 151736
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1136 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

02Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH COMPACT/STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURROUNDING 00Z RAOBS INDICATED ENTIRE AIR MASS
AROUND AREA HAD WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH LBF
AND DDC WARMING 5 TO 8C AT H8. OVERALL SOUNDING WERE WELL MIXED AND
FOR THE MOST PART STABLE WITH ONLY DDC SHOWING SOME WEAK SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...WHICH LIKELY WOULD NOT BE PRESENT USING ANY KIND OF
MIXED LAYER PARCEL. WHILE SOUNDINGS WERE OVERALL SIMILAR...VERY
DIFFERENT MOISTURE PROFILE NOTED AT DNR THAN AT LBF/DDC...WITH
MIXING RATIOS ONLY AROUND 0.8 IN A DEEP LAYER ABOVE THE SFC. 3Z SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND FIRE WX
ISSUES TODAY AND TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FEATURE
IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DIV Q FIELDS SUGGEST FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND GRADUALLY
BECOME NEUTRAL BY EARLY EVENING AS STRONG H7 THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME FORCED ASCENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD VIA MID LEVEL WAA AND WEAK COLD FRONT BACKING INTO AREA
TODAY...SEEMS VERY DOUBTFUL THAT LIFTING WOULD BE STRONG TO SATURATE
ANY PARCELS AND TAP INTO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE EVENING
AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT DRY FORECAST. COLD FRONT
BACKING INTO AREA TODAY CALLS INTO QUESTION A BIT HOW WARM THINGS
WILL GET TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CWA. FOR NOW...THINK
KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE HIGHS IN THIS AREA IN ORDER BUT
FINAL NUMBERS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW FAST FRONT PROGRESSES
TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA...LEADING TO INCREASING CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE
DAY. AS SFC TROUGH STRENGTHENS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SHARPLY...BRINGING AN END TO THE PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS INCREASING AND
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP SHARPLY TO THE WEST OF RETREATING
FRONTAL ZONE HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT FIRE WEATHER AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
DROP TO AROUND 13 PERCENT. WHILE GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...RECENT FUEL
STATUS FROM EASTERN COLORADO SUGGESTS CRITICAL FUELS STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH SPEED OF RETREATING FRONTAL
ZONE WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON HOW DRY THINGS WILL GET AND CONCERNS
ABOUT TIMING THIS OUT KEEPS CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANY KIND OF
WARNING...THINK FIRE WEATHER WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO
SEE A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS IN THIS SAME AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS PV ADVECTION INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE FORCING LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
PRECIPITATION THREAT...HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE/LIKELY HOOD ANY
PORTION OF AIR MASS WILL SATURATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
GIVEN MEAGER QPF OUTPUT FROM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND OVERALL LOW POPS
FROM ENSEMBLE DATA. WHILE THESE FACTORS LIMIT CONFIDENCE...THINK
SMALL POPS WARRANTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH PV ANOMALY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. POTENTIAL
LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...BUT EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
IN THE MORNING AND EXPECTED POSITION OF UPPER TROUGHS HAVE TO MANY
CONCERNS ABOUT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL LOCATION OF THE
FRONT TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE HIGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. COLD FRONT ALREADY DROPPING SOUTH OVER KMCK WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS 15-17KT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VARIABLE AT KGLD THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN FRONT DROPS
JUST EAST OF TERMINAL AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
10KT. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT LEADING TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING BY 18Z. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 18Z...SO I
ONLY SHOWED INCREASING TREND AFTER 15Z IN THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO TOMORROW...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO
15 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING TO
AROUND 15 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH GREEN UP IS
WELL UNDERWAY...A FEW REPORTS OF CRITICAL FUELS EXISTS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. ALSO WITH 3 DAYS OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS
HUMIDITIES...FINE FUELS SHOULD BE VERY DRY AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ013-027.

CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/PM
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...JRM

000
FXUS63 KTOP 151729
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 0745Z SHOWED NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHICH IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE MORE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AS IT MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LLVL LIFT IS THERE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MOISTURE IS LACKING. EXPECT ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE FRONT
WILL NOT ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH TODAY TO AFFECT HIGHS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...SO HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MIDDLE 80S.

THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AREAS...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN THE HIAWATHA AREA TO THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE
ABILENE AND CONCORDIA AREAS. A RETURN TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS WITH THE STRONGER
OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL LEAD TO WARMER LOWS FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
BETTER FORCING WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MIDDLE 50S TO
NEAR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SATURDAY...SO LOWS IN THE 60S AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S
WILL ALSO BE THE RULE.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY APPEARS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY
OVER THE WEST CWA SO HAVE KEPT THE DAYTIME DRY ALL AREAS...THEN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS (35 TO 45 PERCENT) ON
SUNDAY FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP CHANCES AND FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...HAVE COOLED HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY...THEN DRY...BUT STILL MORE SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. 63

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND SPEEDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
FOR THIS FORECAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WEAK
FRONT PASSES AROUND 05Z. DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP PREVENT TSRA
WITH THIS FRONT.

65

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDDC 151704
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1204 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THIS MORNING AT 12Z AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
CANADA SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE AT 15Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND THIS FRONT 3 TO 5 MB 3 HOURS PRESSURE
RISES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT A WEDGE OF WARM (+17 TO +20C) 850MB
TEMPERATURES STRETCHED FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST A -15C 500MB UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR EAST CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH 60KT JET STREAK LOCATED IN THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL YIELD SUNNY
CONDITIONS.  A REAL WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON
THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY SPREAD SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD DOWN INTO KANSAS...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND ANY
CLOUD MATERIAL SHOULD DISSIPATE ONCE IT REACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH PERHAPS A FEW 90
DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AS A NOSE OF +21 TO +23C AT 850MB SPREADS
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  A WEAK REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH WILL NOSE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...PROVIDING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE HIGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK SO WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH IN
GENERAL.  HAVE LOWERED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID FOR TONIGHT DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 50S GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES...AND WINDS
GENERALLY 8 MPH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THAT AFFECTED THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL PROGRESS INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO SHUNT ANY DEEP
MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A LARGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG OR JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KTS AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER, THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL NOT EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO TAP THE RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY
THURSDAY THIS WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS OF
THIS SYSTEM, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER, A HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN WESTERN KANSAS LATE
THURSDAY. NOTE THAT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL-MOISTURE ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO, SO THE NAM/ECMWF WERE PREFERRED. STRONG VERTICAL MIXING OF
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DEEP DRY ADIABATIC LAYER
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700MB. SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATED
BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD TEND TO BE MIXED OUT QUICKLY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TEND TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL
BE VERY WARM AS LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
SHOULD BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE SURFACE DRYLINE WHERE THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE INSTEAD OF SOUTHERLY. STORM CHANCES
LOOK VERY SMALL FRIDAY SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN
TOO FAR WEST. BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THERE IS
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. DUE TO THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY THIS TIME, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE
SEVERE. HOWEVER, HIGH-END SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
ARE UNLIKELY SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL NOT BE ALL THAT
RICH. STORM CHANCES INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS THIS UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THIS
TIME, WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THAN THE GFS.
BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM.
THESE STORMS HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BEING SEVERE GIVEN THAT
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED BY THE ECMWF (WHICH TENDS TO BE CONSERVATIVE
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN) TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WARM AS
FRIDAY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE DRYLINE. TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE,
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER, RESULTING IN LOWER
MIX-DOWN TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE, DEWPOINTS
WILL BE HIGHER AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
UPPER-MIDWEST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY.

AFTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. BUT THERE IS A
GENERAL TENDENCY IN THE MODELS FOR UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, WHICH WOULD PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS NEAR
THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10KTS OR LESS. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  54  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  88  52  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  85  52  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  87  52  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  90  52  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
P28  88  55  88  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT

000
FXUS63 KGLD 151148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

02Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH COMPACT/STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURROUNDING 00Z RAOBS INDICATED ENTIRE AIR MASS
AROUND AREA HAD WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH LBF
AND DDC WARMING 5 TO 8C AT H8. OVERALL SOUNDING WERE WELL MIXED AND
FOR THE MOST PART STABLE WITH ONLY DDC SHOWING SOME WEAK SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...WHICH LIKELY WOULD NOT BE PRESENT USING ANY KIND OF
MIXED LAYER PARCEL. WHILE SOUNDINGS WERE OVERALL SIMILAR...VERY
DIFFERENT MOISTURE PROFILE NOTED AT DNR THAN AT LBF/DDC...WITH
MIXING RATIOS ONLY AROUND 0.8 IN A DEEP LAYER ABOVE THE SFC. 3Z SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND FIRE WX
ISSUES TODAY AND TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FEATURE
IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DIV Q FIELDS SUGGEST FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND GRADUALLY
BECOME NEUTRAL BY EARLY EVENING AS STRONG H7 THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME FORCED ASCENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD VIA MID LEVEL WAA AND WEAK COLD FRONT BACKING INTO AREA
TODAY...SEEMS VERY DOUBTFUL THAT LIFTING WOULD BE STRONG TO SATURATE
ANY PARCELS AND TAP INTO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE EVENING
AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT DRY FORECAST. COLD FRONT
BACKING INTO AREA TODAY CALLS INTO QUESTION A BIT HOW WARM THINGS
WILL GET TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CWA. FOR NOW...THINK
KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE HIGHS IN THIS AREA IN ORDER BUT
FINAL NUMBERS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW FAST FRONT PROGRESSES
TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA...LEADING TO INCREASING CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE
DAY. AS SFC TROUGH STRENGTHENS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SHARPLY...BRINGING AN END TO THE PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS INCREASING AND
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP SHARPLY TO THE WEST OF RETREATING
FRONTAL ZONE HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT FIRE WEATHER AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
DROP TO AROUND 13 PERCENT. WHILE GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...RECENT FUEL
STATUS FROM EASTERN COLORADO SUGGESTS CRITICAL FUELS STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH SPEED OF RETREATING FRONTAL
ZONE WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON HOW DRY THINGS WILL GET AND CONCERNS
ABOUT TIMING THIS OUT KEEPS CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANY KIND OF
WARNING...THINK FIRE WEATHER WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO
SEE A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS IN THIS SAME AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS PV ADVECTION INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE FORCING LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
PRECIPITATION THREAT...HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE/LIKELY HOOD ANY
PORTION OF AIR MASS WILL SATURATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
GIVEN MEAGER QPF OUTPUT FROM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND OVERALL LOW POPS
FROM ENSEMBLE DATA. WHILE THESE FACTORS LIMIT CONFIDENCE...THINK
SMALL POPS WARRANTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH PV ANOMALY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. POTENTIAL
LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...BUT EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
IN THE MORNING AND EXPECTED POSITION OF UPPER TROUGHS HAVE TO MANY
CONCERNS ABOUT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL LOCATION OF THE
FRONT TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE HIGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS
AREA TODAY SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
PASSES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SFC
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO TOMORROW...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO
15 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING TO
AROUND 15 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH GREEN UP IS
WELL UNDERWAY...A FEW REPORTS OF CRITICAL FUELS EXISTS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. ALSO WITH 3 DAYS OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS
HUMIDITIES...FINE FUELS SHOULD BE VERY DRY AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ013-027.

CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/PM
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...JRM

000
FXUS63 KDDC 151147
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
647 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WAS FOUND ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  THE STRONGEST UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
WINDS AS OF 15.00Z WERE ALONG AN ANTICYCLONIC ARC FROM JUST OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST NOSING INTO NORTH DAKOTA.  WITHIN THE RIDGING
THOUGH...THERE WAS A SMALL BUT FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY AS IT
CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BACKGROUND LARGER SCALE RIDGE.
ELSEWHERE...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM OHIO TO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  IN THE WAKE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUED TO BE WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL YIELD SUNNY
CONDITIONS.  A REAL WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON
THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY SPREAD SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD DOWN INTO KANSAS...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND ANY
CLOUD MATERIAL SHOULD DISSIPATE ONCE IT REACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH PERHAPS A FEW 90
DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AS A NOSE OF +21 TO +23C AT 850MB SPREADS
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  A WEAK REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH WILL NOSE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...PROVIDING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE HIGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK SO WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH IN
GENERAL.  HAVE LOWERED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID FOR TONIGHT DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 50S GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES...AND WINDS
GENERALLY 8 MPH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THAT AFFECTED THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL PROGRESS INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO SHUNT ANY DEEP
MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A LARGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG OR JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KTS AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER, THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL NOT EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO TAP THE RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY
THURSDAY THIS WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS OF
THIS SYSTEM, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER, A HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN WESTERN KANSAS LATE
THURSDAY. NOTE THAT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL-MOISTURE ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO, SO THE NAM/ECMWF WERE PREFERRED. STRONG VERTICAL MIXING OF
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DEEP DRY ADIABATIC LAYER
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700MB. SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATED
BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD TEND TO BE MIXED OUT QUICKLY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TEND TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL
BE VERY WARM AS LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
SHOULD BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE SURFACE DRYLINE WHERE THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE INSTEAD OF SOUTHERLY. STORM CHANCES
LOOK VERY SMALL FRIDAY SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN
TOO FAR WEST. BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THERE IS
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. DUE TO THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY THIS TIME, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE
SEVERE. HOWEVER, HIGH-END SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
ARE UNLIKELY SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL NOT BE ALL THAT
RICH. STORM CHANCES INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS THIS UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THIS
TIME, WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THAN THE GFS.
BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM.
THESE STORMS HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BEING SEVERE GIVEN THAT
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED BY THE ECMWF (WHICH TENDS TO BE CONSERVATIVE
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN) TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WARM AS
FRIDAY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE DRYLINE. TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE,
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER, RESULTING IN LOWER
MIX-DOWN TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE, DEWPOINTS
WILL BE HIGHER AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
UPPER-MIDWEST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY.

AFTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. BUT THERE IS A
GENERAL TENDENCY IN THE MODELS FOR UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, WHICH WOULD PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT ALL LEVELS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  54  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  87  52  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  85  52  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  86  52  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  88  52  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  55  88  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

000
FXUS63 KTOP 151115
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
615 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 0745Z SHOWED NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHICH IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE MORE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AS IT MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LLVL LIFT IS THERE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MOISTURE IS LACKING. EXPECT ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE FRONT
WILL NOT ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH TODAY TO AFFECT HIGHS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...SO HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MIDDLE 80S.

THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AREAS...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN THE HIAWATHA AREA TO THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE
ABILENE AND CONCORDIA AREAS. A RETURN TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS WITH THE STRONGER
OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL LEAD TO WARMER LOWS FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
BETTER FORCING WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MIDDLE 50S TO
NEAR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SATURDAY...SO LOWS IN THE 60S AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S
WILL ALSO BE THE RULE.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY APPEARS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY
OVER THE WEST CWA SO HAVE KEPT THE DAYTIME DRY ALL AREAS...THEN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS (35 TO 45 PERCENT) ON
SUNDAY FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP CHANCES AND FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...HAVE COOLED HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY...THEN DRY...BUT STILL MORE SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. 63


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS LESS THAN 8 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING CALM
DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KICT 151111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. DUE TO RATHER
LIMITED MOISTURE NO RAINFALL AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-THU NGT:
THE PROGGED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS STAYING "ON COURSE". THE AFORE-MENTIONED
OMEGA BLOCK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TOWARD THE CNTRL & SRN PLAINS AS MID
TO UPR LOW...SITUATED OVER NRN CA...VENTURES E TOWARD THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
STILL EXPECT THE UPR DECK PATTERN TO DEAMPLIFY FOR AS THE LOW APPROACHES
THE OMEGA BLOCK IT`LL TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE OMEGA BLOCK
WILL BREAK DOWN AS IT SPREAD E ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS A RESULT NICE
WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.

NEXT WEEKEND:
STILL EXPECT THE MID-UPR WAVE TO SHEAR WHILE ACCELERATING NE FROM NRN KS
TO SRN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...AN UPSTREAM MID-UPR TROF STILL EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN MARKEDLY AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THIS MUCH STRONGER TROF WILL
LIKEWISE INDUCE PRONOUNCED WRN PLAINS SFC TROFFING FRI & FRI NGT THEREBY
ENABLING HIGHER OCTANE FUEL TO SURGE N ACROSS KS. THE MUCH STRONGER WAVE
WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT SE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...MOST OF KS SAT & SAT
NGT. HOW FAR SE THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS IS THE KEY QUESTION. THE GFS IS
NOW TAKING THE BOUNDARY INTO MO WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. WITH A HIGH
AMPLTIUDE MID-UPR RIDGE COVERING THE ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WOULD EXPECT
THE SRN SEGMENT OF THE WAVE TO SHEAR AS IT VENTURES OVER KS. AS SUCH AM
INCLINED TO BIAS TOWARD THE ECMWF. TRANSLATION: TSRA SHOULD INCREASE SAT
NGT & CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NGT. ONLY CHANGE TO THESE PERIODS WAS TO
SHIFT AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) SLIGHTLY SE DURING THESE PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      86  56  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          85  58  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        85  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  57  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         87  55  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      86  55  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          87  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       86  57  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     83  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         82  56  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            82  56  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    82  55  84  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGLD 150937
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
337 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

02Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH COMPACT/STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURROUNDING 00Z RAOBS INDICATED ENTIRE AIRMASS
AROUND AREA HAD WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH LBF
AND DDC WARMING 5 TO 8C AT H8. OVERALL SOUNDING WERE WELL MIXED AND
FOR THE MOST PART STABLE WITH ONLY DDC SHOWING SOME WEAK SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...WHICH LIKELY WOULD NOT BE PRESENT USING ANY KIND OF
MIXED LAYER PARCEL. WHILE SOUNDINGS WERE OVERALL SIMILAR...VERY
DIFFERENT MOISTURE PROFILE NOTED AT DNR THAN AT LBF/DDC...WITH
MIXING RATIOS ONLY AROUND 0.8 IN A DEEP LAYER ABOVE THE SFC. 3Z SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND FIRE WX
ISSUES TODAY AND TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FEATURE
IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DIV Q FIELDS SUGGEST FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND GRADUALLY
BECOME NEUTRAL BY EARLY EVENING AS STRONG H7 THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME FORCED ASCENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD VIA MID LEVEL WAA AND WEAK COLD FRONT BACKING INTO AREA
TODAY...SEEMS VERY DOUBTFUL THAT LIFTING WOULD BE STRONG TO SATURATE
ANY PARCELS AND TAP INTO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE EVENING
AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT DRY FORECAST. COLD FRONT
BACKING INTO AREA TODAY CALLS INTO QUESTION A BIT HOW WARM THINGS
WILL GET TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CWA. FOR NOW...THINK
KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE HIGHS IN THIS AREA IN ORDER BUT
FINAL NUMBERS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW FAST FRONT PROGRESSES
TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA...LEADING TO INCREASING CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE
DAY. AS SFC TROUGH STRENGTHENS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SHARPLY...BRINGING AN END TO THE PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS INCREASING AND
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP SHARPLY TO THE WEST OF RETREATING
FRONTAL ZONE HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT FIRE WEATHER AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
DROP TO AROUND 13 PERCENT. WHILE GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...RECENT FUEL
STATUS FROM EASTERN COLORADO SUGGESTS CRITICAL FUELS STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH SPEED OF RETREATING FRONTAL
ZONE WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON HOW DRY THINGS WILL GET AND CONCERNS
ABOUT TIMING THIS OUT KEEPS CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANY KIND OF
WARNING...THINK FIRE WEATHER WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO
SEE A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS IN THIS SAME AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS PV ADVECTION INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE FORCING LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
PRECIPITATION THREAT...HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE/LIKELY HOOD ANY
PORTION OF AIR MASS WILL SATURATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
GIVEN MEAGER QPF OUTPUT FROM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND OVERALL LOW POPS
FROM ENSEMBLE DATA. WHILE THESE FACTORS LIMIT CONFIDENCE...THINK
SMALL POPS WARRANTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH PV ANOMALY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. POTENTIAL
LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...BUT EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
IN THE MORNING AND EXPECTED POSITION OF UPPER TROUGHS HAVE TO MANY
CONCERNS ABOUT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL LOCATION OF THE
FRONT TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE HIGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. ONLY WEATHER
FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH KMCK AROUND
18Z AND KGLD AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
NO OTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO TOMORROW...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO
15 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING TO
AROUND 15 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH GREEN UP IS
WELL UNDERWAY...A FEW REPORTS OF CRITICAL FUELS EXISTS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. ALSO WITH 3 DAYS OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS
HUMIDITIES...FINE FUELS SHOULD BE VERY DRY AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ013-027.

CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/PM
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...JRM

000
FXUS63 KGLD 150924
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
324 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

02Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH COMPACT/STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURROUNDING 00Z RAOBS INDICATED ENTIRE AIRMASS
AROUND AREA HAD WARMED SIGNFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH LBF
AND DDC WARMING 5 TO 8C AT H8. OVERALL SOUNDING WERE WELL MIXED AND
FOR THE MOST PART STABLE WITH ONLY DDC SHOWING SOME WEAK SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...WHICH LIKELY WOULD NOT BE PRESENT USING ANY KIND OF
MIXED LAYER PARCEL. WHILE SOUNDINGS WERE OVERALL SIMILAR...VERY
DIFFERENT MOISTURE PROFILE NOTED AT DNR THAN AT LBF/DDC...WITH
MIXING RATIOS ONLY AROUND 0.8 IN A DEEP LAYER ABOVE THE SFC. 3Z SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND FIRE WX
ISSUES TODAY AND TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES WEDNIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FEATURE
IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DIV Q FIELDS SUGGEST FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND GRADUALLY
BECOME NEUTRAL BY EARLY EVENING AS STRONG H7 THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME FORCED ASCENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD VIA MID LEVEL WAA AND WEAK COLD FRONT BACKING INTO AREA
TODAY...SEEMS VERY DOUBTFUL THAT LIFTING WOULD BE STRONG TO SATURATE
ANY PARCELS AND TAP INTO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE EVENING
AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT DRY FORECAST. COLD FRONT
BACKING INTO AREA TODAY CALLS INTO QUESTION A BIT HOW WARM THINGS
WILL GET TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CWA. FOR NOW...THINK
KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE HIGHS IN THIS AREA IN ORDER BUT
FINAL NUMBERS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW FAST FRONT PROGRESSES
TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA...LEADING TO INCREASING CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE
DAY. AS SFC TROUGH STREGTHENS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SHARPLY...BRINGING AN END TO THE PERIOD OF RELATIVLY CALM WINDS OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS INCREASING AND
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP SHARPLY TO THE WEST OF RETREATING
FRONTAL ZONE HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT FIRE WEATHER AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITES
DROP TO AROUND 13 PERCENT. WHILE GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...RECENT FUEL
STATUS FROM EASTERN COLORADO SUGGESTS CRITICAL FUELS STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH SPEED OF RETREATING FRONTAL
ZONE WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON HOW DRY THINGS WILL GET AND CONCERS
ABOUT TIMING THIS OUT KEEPS CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANY KIND OF
WARNING...THINK FIRE WEATHER WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO
SEE A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS IN THIS SAME AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EVENING.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS PV ADVECTION INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE FORCING LOOKS SUFFCIENT TO SUPPORT A
PRECIPITATION THREAT...HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE/LIKELY HOOD ANY
PORTION OF AIRMASS WILL SATURATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
GIVEN MEAGER QPF OUTPUT FROM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND OVERALL LOW POPS
FROM ENSEMBLE DATA. WHILE THESE FACTORS LIMIT CONFIDENCE...THINK
SMALL POPS WARRANTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH PV ANOMALY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. POTENTIAL
LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...BUT EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
IN THE MORNING AND EXPECTED POSTION OF UPPER TROUGHS HAVE TO MANY
CONCERNS ABOUT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZTION AND OVERALL LOCATION OF THE
FRONT TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE HIGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. ONLY WEATHER
FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH KMCK AROUND
18Z AND KGLD AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
NO OTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/PM
AVIATION...024

000
FXUS63 KTOP 150914
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
414 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 0745Z SHOWED NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHICH IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE MORE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AS IT MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LLVL LIFT IS THERE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MOISTURE IS LACKING. EXPECT ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE FRONT
WILL NOT ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH TODAY TO AFFECT HIGHS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...SO HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MIDDLE 80S.

THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AREAS...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN THE HIAWATHA AREA TO THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE
ABILENE AND CONCORDIA AREAS. A RETURN TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS WITH THE STRONGER
OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL LEAD TO WARMER LOWS FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
BETTER FORCING WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MIDDLE 50S TO
NEAR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SATURDAY...SO LOWS IN THE 60S AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S
WILL ALSO BE THE RULE.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY APPEARS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY
OVER THE WEST CWA SO HAVE KEPT THE DAYTIME DRY ALL AREAS...THEN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS (35 TO 45 PERCENT) ON
SUNDAY FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP CHANCES AND FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...HAVE COOLED HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY...THEN DRY...BUT STILL MORE SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. 63

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY GO FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDDC 150903
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
403 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS, LONG TERM, SHORT TERM SECTIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WAS FOUND ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  THE STRONGEST UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
WINDS AS OF 15.00Z WERE ALONG AN ANTICYCLONIC ARC FROM JUST OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST NOSING INTO NORTH DAKOTA.  WITHIN THE RIDGING
THOUGH...THERE WAS A SMALL BUT FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY AS IT
CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BACKGROUND LARGER SCALE RIDGE.
ELSEWHERE...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM OHIO TO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  IN THE WAKE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUED TO BE WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL YIELD SUNNY
CONDITIONS.  A REAL WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON
THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY SPREAD SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD DOWN INTO KANSAS...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND ANY
CLOUD MATERIAL SHOULD DISSIPATE ONCE IT REACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH PERHAPS A FEW 90
DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AS A NOSE OF +21 TO +23C AT 850MB SPREADS
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  A WEAK REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH WILL NOSE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...PROVIDING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE HIGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK SO WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH IN
GENERAL.  HAVE LOWERED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID FOR TONIGHT DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 50S GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES...AND WINDS
GENERALLY 8 MPH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THAT AFFECTED THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL PROGRESS INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO SHUNT ANY DEEP
MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A LARGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG OR JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KTS AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER, THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL NOT EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO TAP THE RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY
THURSDAY THIS WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS OF
THIS SYSTEM, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER, A HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN WESTERN KANSAS LATE
THURSDAY. NOTE THAT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL-MOISTURE ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO, SO THE NAM/ECMWF WERE PREFERRED. STRONG VERTICAL MIXING OF
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DEEP DRY ADIABATIC LAYER
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700MB. SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATED
BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD TEND TO BE MIXED OUT QUICKLY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TEND TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL
BE VERY WARM AS LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
SHOULD BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE SURFACE DRYLINE WHERE THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE INSTEAD OF SOUTHERLY. STORM CHANCES
LOOK VERY SMALL FRIDAY SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN
TOO FAR WEST. BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THERE IS
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. DUE TO THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY THIS TIME, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE
SEVERE. HOWEVER, HIGH-END SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
ARE UNLIKELY SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL NOT BE ALL THAT
RICH. STORM CHANCES INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS THIS UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THIS
TIME, WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THAN THE GFS.
BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM.
THESE STORMS HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BEING SEVERE GIVEN THAT
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED BY THE ECMWF (WHICH TENDS TO BE CONSERVATIVE
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN) TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WARM AS
FRIDAY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE DRYLINE. TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE,
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER, RESULTING IN LOWER
MIX-DOWN TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE, DEWPOINTS
WILL BE HIGHER AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
UPPER-MIDWEST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY.

AFTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. BUT THERE IS A
GENERAL TENDENCY IN THE MODELS FOR UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, WHICH WOULD PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

QUIET AVIATION WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON AVERAGE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL KANSAS 06-12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
THE WIND SPEED STRENGTH BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  54  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  87  52  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  85  52  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  86  52  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  88  52  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  55  88  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

000
FXUS63 KICT 150800
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AN UPR-DECK MID-LVL OMEGA BLOCK SITUATED OVER THE SRN & CNTRL ROCKIES IS
DRIFTING E TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...KEEPING ALL OF KS UNDER A WEAK
MID-LVL NLY FLOW REGIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DOWNSTAIRS...A WEAK SFC TROF
IS VENTURING ALMOST DUE S FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO FORCE A WEAK SFC HIGH
SITUATED OVER KS/MO BORDER SE TOWARD THE LWR MS VALLEY. SFC WINDS HAVE
BECOME WEAK SLY OVER ALL OF KICT COUNTRY.

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-THU NGT:
THE PROGGED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS STAYING "ON COURSE". THE AFORE-MENTIONED
OMEGA BLOCK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TOWARD THE CNTRL & SRN PLAINS AS MID
TO UPR LOW...SITUATED OVER NRN CA...VENTURES E TOWARD THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
STILL EXPECT THE UPR DECK PATTERN TO DEAMPLIFY FOR AS THE LOW APPROACHES
THE OMEGA BLOCK IT`LL TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE OMEGA BLOCK
WILL BREAK DOWN AS IT SPREAD E ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS A RESULT NICE
WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.

NEXT WEEKEND:
STILL EXPECT THE MID-UPR WAVE TO SHEAR WHILE ACCELERATING NE FROM NRN KS
TO SRN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...AN UPSTREAM MID-UPR TROF STILL EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN MARKEDLY AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THIS MUCH STRONGER TROF WILL
LIKEWISE INDUCE PRONOUNCED WRN PLAINS SFC TROFFING FRI & FRI NGT THEREBY
ENABLING HIGHER OCTANE FUEL TO SURGE N ACROSS KS. THE MUCH STRONGER WAVE
WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT SE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...MOST OF KS SAT & SAT
NGT. HOW FAR SE THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS IS THE KEY QUESTION. THE GFS IS
NOW TAKING THE BOUNDARY INTO MO WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. WITH A HIGH
AMPLTIUDE MID-UPR RIDGE COVERING THE ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WOULD EXPECT
THE SRN SEGMENT OF THE WAVE TO SHEAR AS IT VENTURES OVER KS. AS SUCH AM
INCLINED TO BIAS TOWARD THE ECMWF. TRANSLATION: TSRA SHOULD INCREASE SAT
NGT & CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NGT. ONLY CHANGE TO THESE PERIODS WAS TO
SHIFT AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) SLIGHTLY SE DURING THESE PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  57  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      85  57  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          84  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        83  57  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         87  54  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      86  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          86  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       85  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     82  57  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         82  57  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            82  57  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    82  57  83  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KICT 150644
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
144 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITION SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE LIGHT VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AT MOST SITES.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

UPDATE...

MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS/
TRENDS. ANTICIPATE SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS DISSIPATE. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AS STORMS ARE NIXED AFTER 0000 UTC. -HOWERTON

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VFR CONDITION SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE LIGHT VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AT MOST SITES.
-HOWERTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS AS NW-WESTERLY KEEP STORM
CHANCES NEAR ZERO.

TONIGHT-WED:
WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AS MID LEVEL LIFT
LEADS TO A DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCE. THINK THIS CHANCE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTS SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR/DOWNGLIDE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

NW-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR TUE INTO WED...WITH A
NICE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.  LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOWS A
BACKDOOR FRONT TRYING TO PUSH INTO NE-ERN KS FOR TUE NIGHT OR EARLY
ON WED. BUT THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL OUT BEFORE REACHING THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ANY SLIM PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT
STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN THE NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THU AND
RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NEB. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
HELP PUSH THE REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY OVER NERN KS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NEB...SFC GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MOST OF KS AS A SFC TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS WRN KS.  THIS WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THU. EXPECT ANY
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM TO STAY WELL NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...AS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER KEEPS STORM CHANCES CAPPED OFF
ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA INTO NE KS.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ERN KS FOR FRI AFTN...AS A REMNANT
PORTION OF THIS WEAK IMPULSE WILL STILL BE ACROSS ERN KS. A WARM
MIXED LAYER ALOFT...WILL AGAIN KEEP MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING...BUT PROBABLY CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/STORM. WILL
LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.

SAT-SUN:
THE BROAD WEST-SW FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.  NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS ON SAT...WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
CEN KS BY SAT AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT BEFORE IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID
LEVEL FLOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SRN KS THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE
WEEK.

KETCHAM

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AND
LIKELY LONGER.

WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM THE OZARK REGION INTO NM. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL COOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE
RAPIDLY DEVELOPMENT OF CU...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-135. SINCE THE
AIRMASS IS SO DRY BASES ARE AROUND 6000-8000FT. A FEW SPRINKLES
MAYBE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT NOTHING MORE. AS SUNSET
APPROACHES THE CU WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY LONGER.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  86  63  84 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      57  87  64  85 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          57  86  63  83 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        57  85  62  83 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  84  63  83 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         54  89  65  87 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      55  88  64  87 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          56  88  64  86 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       57  88  64  85 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     57  85  61  83 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         57  84  61  83 /   0   0  10   0
IOLA            57  84  61  83 /   0   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  85  61  83 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDDC 150533
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1233 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS BASED AROUND 7000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IS FOUND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER 20S TOMORROW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. STRONGER WINDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD AID IN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DUE TO MIXING. WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS WARM
AND BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS MIXING HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SUGGESTING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO 10000 FEET OR HIGHER AS 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 10C.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME STILL APPEAR SMALL WITH THIS MID
WEEK SYSTEM IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FURTHER NORTH IN WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION GIVEN THE TRACK OF A -14C COOL POOL
AT THE 500MB LEVEL AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.
PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAS A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NORTH OF A GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTER LINE SO
WILL LEAVE THESE CHANCES AS IS.

AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES LATE THURSDAY THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS BACK TO
THE WEST COAST AS THE NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE ROCKIES LATE WEEK A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
IMPROVES. 850-700MB TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND BY 00Z
SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FROM 24 TO 30C AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 12 AND 14C. BASED ON THESE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL THAT IS EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S STILL APPEAR REASONABLE.

BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON ITS
TRACK AND SPEED. THEY BOTH HOWEVER AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GIVEN
INSTABILITY AND MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
ALLBLEND DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, AMOUNT
OF COOLER AIR RETURNING BEHIND THIS FRONT, AND CLOUD COVER THAN WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

QUIET AVIATION WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON AVERAGE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL KANSAS 06-12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
THE WIND SPEED STRENGTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  87  61  87 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  54  89  60  87 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  54  87  59  87 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  54  89  60  88 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  55  89  63  86 /   0  10  10  10
P28  57  87  62  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA 42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

000
FXUS63 KGLD 150510
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1110 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PUSH TO THE
EAST AND BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INLAND AND INTO NEVADA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
FORCING...ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 22-24C RANGE...WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. A 90 OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST BUT
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST...NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS WILL HAPPEN AND LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES AS IS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO FALL TO 20% OR LESS ON TUESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
VARIABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTH AHEAD OF A LEE
TROUGH THAT IS DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...BUT
FEEL THERE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND THE
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVING THIS
TROUGH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...SO HAVE TENDED TO KEEP THE
BROAD-BRUSHED SCATTERED POPS IN THERE FOR NOW WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO NARROW THE TIMING DOWN AND BRING POPS UP DURING THE MAIN TIME
OF CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. ONLY WEATHER
FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH KMCK AROUND
18Z AND KGLD AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
NO OTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAS
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...024

000
FXUS63 KTOP 150458
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1158 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS OVER NORTH
AMERICA...INCLUDE THOSE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...HUDSON BAY...AND CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH 12Z UPPER
AIR DATA SHOWING THE STRONGEST JET WINDS WITH THE LATTER LOW. RECENT
500MB PROFILER WINDS IN AND NEAR KANSAS HAVE VEERED BEHIND THE WEAK
LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVED SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY. 12Z 850MB TEMPS
RANGED FROM 10C AT KTOP TO 13C AT KLBF AND 18C AT KRAP. 18Z 3-HOUR
PRESSURE CHANGE FIELDS INDICATING LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ON TAP TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND THE SASKATCHEWAN WAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST. SOMEWHAT BETTER MIXING AND MODERATION OF THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON FRONTAL TIMING...BUT CONSENSUS BRINGS IT INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO TAP INTO ON THIS
CHARACTER OF WIND AND LOW LEVEL PATTERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
LEVELS CHANGING LITTLE FROM TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIMITED WITH SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME IN EVEN THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. GIVEN UPSTREAM 850MB TEMPS
AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

65

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY WITH A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS ALOFT AND THE LEE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS WARM AS EARLIER
FORECAST HAD DUE TO A BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS. 850 TEMPS AROUND 17C STILL ARGUE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHEER OUT A
SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AND
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME CAPPING FROM AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE IMPULSE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO FORM.
THE GFS QPF LOOKS TO BE SPORADIC WITH THE SFC TROUGH STILL WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NO MENTION OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY AS 850 TEMPS WARM. FORECAST HAS MID 80S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASED MIXING FROM SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 60S AS WELL.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CONSENSUS FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE
WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES A LITTLE MORE TIME TO MOVE IT THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL KS. NEVERTHELESS WITH GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY...LENDS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD ALSO COME A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

WOLTERS


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY GO FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KTOP 142340
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS OVER NORTH
AMERICA...INCLUDE THOSE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...HUDSON BAY...AND CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH 12Z UPPER
AIR DATA SHOWING THE STRONGEST JET WINDS WITH THE LATTER LOW. RECENT
500MB PROFILER WINDS IN AND NEAR KANSAS HAVE VEERED BEHIND THE WEAK
LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVED SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY. 12Z 850MB TEMPS
RANGED FROM 10C AT KTOP TO 13C AT KLBF AND 18C AT KRAP. 18Z 3-HOUR
PRESSURE CHANGE FIELDS INDICATING LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ON TAP TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND THE SASKATCHEWAN WAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST. SOMEWHAT BETTER MIXING AND MODERATION OF THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON FRONTAL TIMING...BUT CONSENSUS BRINGS IT INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO TAP INTO ON THIS
CHARACTER OF WIND AND LOW LEVEL PATTERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
LEVELS CHANGING LITTLE FROM TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIMITED WITH SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME IN EVEN THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. GIVEN UPSTREAM 850MB TEMPS
AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

65

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY WITH A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS ALOFT AND THE LEE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS WARM AS EARLIER
FORECAST HAD DUE TO A BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS. 850 TEMPS AROUND 17C STILL ARGUE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHEER OUT A
SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AND
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME CAPPING FROM AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE IMPULSE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO FORM.
THE GFS QPF LOOKS TO BE SPORADIC WITH THE SFC TROUGH STILL WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NO MENTION OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY AS 850 TEMPS WARM. FORECAST HAS MID 80S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASED MIXING FROM SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 60S AS WELL.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CONSENSUS FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE
WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES A LITTLE MORE TIME TO MOVE IT THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL KS. NEVERTHELESS WITH GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY...LENDS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD ALSO COME A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

WOLTERS


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KICT 142340
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
640 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...

MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS/
TRENDS. ANTICIPATE SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS DISSIPATE. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AS STORMS ARE NIXED AFTER 0000 UTC. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VFR CONDITION SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE LIGHT VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AT MOST SITES.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS AS NW-WESTERLY KEEP STORM
CHANCES NEAR ZERO.

TONIGHT-WED:
WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AS MID LEVEL LIFT
LEADS TO A DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCE. THINK THIS CHANCE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTS SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR/DOWNGLIDE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

NW-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR TUE INTO WED...WITH A
NICE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.  LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOWS A
BACKDOOR FRONT TRYING TO PUSH INTO NE-ERN KS FOR TUE NIGHT OR EARLY
ON WED. BUT THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL OUT BEFORE REACHING THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ANY SLIM PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT
STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN THE NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THU AND
RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NEB. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
HELP PUSH THE REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY OVER NERN KS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NEB...SFC GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MOST OF KS AS A SFC TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS WRN KS.  THIS WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THU. EXPECT ANY
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM TO STAY WELL NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...AS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER KEEPS STORM CHANCES CAPPED OFF
ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA INTO NE KS.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ERN KS FOR FRI AFTN...AS A REMNANT
PORTION OF THIS WEAK IMPULSE WILL STILL BE ACROSS ERN KS. A WARM
MIXED LAYER ALOFT...WILL AGAIN KEEP MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING...BUT PROBABLY CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/STORM. WILL
LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.

SAT-SUN:
THE BROAD WEST-SW FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.  NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS ON SAT...WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
CEN KS BY SAT AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT BEFORE IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID
LEVEL FLOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SRN KS THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE
WEEK.

KETCHAM

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AND
LIKELY LONGER.

WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM THE OZARK REGION INTO NM. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL COOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE
RAPIDLY DEVELOPMENT OF CU...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-135. SINCE THE
AIRMASS IS SO DRY BASES ARE AROUND 6000-8000FT. A FEW SPRINKLES
MAYBE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT NOTHING MORE. AS SUNSET
APPROACHES THE CU WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY LONGER.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      55  85  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          56  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        55  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         52  87  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      53  86  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          54  86  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       55  85  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     55  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         54  82  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            54  82  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    54  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGLD 142308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PUSH TO THE
EAST AND BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INLAND AND INTO NEVADA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
FORCING...ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 22-24C RANGE...WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. A 90 OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST BUT
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST...NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS WILL HAPPEN AND LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES AS IS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO FALL TO 20% OR LESS ON TUESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
VARIABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTH AHEAD OF A LEE
TROUGH THAT IS DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...BUT
FEEL THERE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND THE
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVING THIS
TROUGH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...SO HAVE TENDED TO KEEP THE
BROAD-BRUSHED SCATTERED POPS IN THERE FOR NOW WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO NARROW THE TIMING DOWN AND BRING POPS UP DURING THE MAIN TIME
OF CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAS
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...024

000
FXUS63 KDDC 142304
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
604 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS BASED AROUND 7000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IS FOUND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER 20S TOMORROW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. STRONGER WINDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD AID IN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DUE TO MIXING. WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS WARM
AND BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS MIXING HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SUGGESTING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO 10000 FEET OR HIGHER AS 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 10C.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME STILL APPEAR SMALL WITH THIS MID
WEEK SYSTEM IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FURTHER NORTH IN WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION GIVEN THE TRACK OF A -14C COOL POOL
AT THE 500MB LEVEL AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.
PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAS A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NORTH OF A GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTER LINE SO
WILL LEAVE THESE CHANCES AS IS.

AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES LATE THURSDAY THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS BACK TO
THE WEST COAST AS THE NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE ROCKIES LATE WEEK A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
IMPROVES. 850-700MB TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND BY 00Z
SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FROM 24 TO 30C AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 12 AND 14C. BASED ON THESE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL THAT IS EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S STILL APPEAR REASONABLE.

BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON ITS
TRACK AND SPEED. THEY BOTH HOWEVER AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GIVEN
INSTABILITY AND MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
ALLBLEND DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, AMOUNT
OF COOLER AIR RETURNING BEHIND THIS FRONT, AND CLOUD COVER THAN WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND AWAY
FROM THE TAF SITES BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  87  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  48  87  54  89 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  49  85  54  87 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  50  86  54  89 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  49  88  55  89 /   0   0   0  10
P28  53  87  57  87 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA 42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD

000
FXUS63 KGLD 142036
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
236 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PUSH TO THE
EAST AND BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INLAND AND INTO NEVADA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
FORCING...ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 22-24C RANGE...WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. A 90 OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST BUT
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST...NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS WILL HAPPEN AND LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES AS IS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO FALL TO 20% OR LESS ON TUESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
VARIABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTH AHEAD OF A LEE
TROUGH THAT IS DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...BUT
FEEL THERE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND THE
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVING THIS
TROUGH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...SO HAVE TENDED TO KEEP THE
BROAD-BRUSHED SCATTERED POPS IN THERE FOR NOW WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO NARROW THE TIMING DOWN AND BRING POPS UP DURING THE MAIN TIME
OF CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAS
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BAS

000
FXUS63 KTOP 142012
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
312 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS OVER NORTH
AMERICA...INCLUDE THOSE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...HUDSON BAY...AND CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH 12Z UPPER
AIR DATA SHOWING THE STRONGEST JET WINDS WITH THE LATTER LOW. RECENT
500MB PROFILER WINDS IN AND NEAR KANSAS HAVE VEERED BEHIND THE WEAK
LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVED SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY. 12Z 850MB TEMPS
RANGED FROM 10C AT KTOP TO 13C AT KLBF AND 18C AT KRAP. 18Z 3-HOUR
PRESSURE CHANGE FIELDS INDICATING LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ON TAP TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND THE SASKATCHEWAN WAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST. SOMEWHAT BETTER MIXING AND MODERATION OF THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON FRONTAL TIMING...BUT CONSENSUS BRINGS IT INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO TAP INTO ON THIS
CHARACTER OF WIND AND LOW LEVEL PATTERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
LEVELS CHANGING LITTLE FROM TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIMITED WITH SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME IN EVEN THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. GIVEN UPSTREAM 850MB TEMPS
AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

65

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY WITH A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS ALOFT AND THE LEE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS WARM AS EARLIER
FORECAST HAD DUE TO A BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS. 850 TEMPS AROUND 17C STILL ARGUE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHEER OUT A
SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AND
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME CAPPING FROM AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE IMPULSE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO FORM.
THE GFS QPF LOOKS TO BE SPORADIC WITH THE SFC TROUGH STILL WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NO MENTION OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY AS 850 TEMPS WARM. FORECAST HAS MID 80S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASED MIXING FROM SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID 60S AS WELL.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CONSENSUS FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE
WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES A LITTLE MORE TIME TO MOVE IT THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL KS. NEVERTHELESS WITH GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY...LENDS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD ALSO COME A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

WOLTERS

&&

.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST IN VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE PERSISTENTLY SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME WITH CU FIELD CLEARING AROUND 0Z.

65

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDDC 142009
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
309 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

...UPDATED SHORT AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS BASED AROUND 7000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IS FOUND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER 20S TOMORROW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. STRONGER WINDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD AID IN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DUE TO MIXING. WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS WARM
AND BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS MIXING HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SUGGESTING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO 10000 FEET OR HIGHER AS 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 10C.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME STILL APPEAR SMALL WITH THIS MID
WEEK SYSTEM IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FURTHER NORTH IN WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION GIVEN THE TRACK OF A -14C COOL POOL
AT THE 500MB LEVEL AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.
PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAS A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NORTH OF A GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTER LINE SO
WILL LEAVE THESE CHANCES AS IS.

AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES LATE THURSDAY THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS BACK TO
THE WEST COAST AS THE NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE ROCKIES LATE WEEK A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
IMPROVES. 850-700MB TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND BY 00Z
SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FROM 24 TO 30C AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 12 AND 14C. BASED ON THESE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL THAT IS EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S STILL APPEAR REASONABLE.

BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON ITS
TRACK AND SPEED. THEY BOTH HOWEVER AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GIVEN
INSTABILITY AND MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
ALLBLEND DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, AMOUNT
OF COOLER AIR RETURNING BEHIND THIS FRONT, AND CLOUD COVER THAN WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. CLOUDS AOA060 WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  84  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  49  85  54  86 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  49  83  54  88 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  50  84  54  85 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  50  85  55  86 /   0   0   0  10
P28  54  84  56  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...HOVORKA 42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA 42

000
FXUS63 KICT 142001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS AS NW-WESTERLY KEEP STORM
CHANCES NEAR ZERO.

TONIGHT-WED:
WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AS MID LEVEL LIFT
LEADS TO A DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCE. THINK THIS CHANCE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTS SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR/DOWNGLIDE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

NW-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR TUE INTO WED...WITH A
NICE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.  LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOWS A
BACKDOOR FRONT TRYING TO PUSH INTO NE-ERN KS FOR TUE NIGHT OR EARLY
ON WED. BUT THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL OUT BEFORE REACHING THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ANY SLIM PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT
STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN THE NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THU AND
RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NEB. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
HELP PUSH THE REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY OVER NERN KS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NEB...SFC GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MOST OF KS AS A SFC TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS WRN KS.  THIS WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR THU. EXPECT ANY
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM TO STAY WELL NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...AS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER KEEPS STORM CHANCES CAPPED OFF
ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA INTO NE KS.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ERN KS FOR FRI AFTN...AS A REMNANT
PORTION OF THIS WEAK IMPULSE WILL STILL BE ACROSS ERN KS. A WARM
MIXED LAYER ALOFT...WILL AGAIN KEEP MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING...BUT PROBABLY CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/STORM. WILL
LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.

SAT-SUN:
THE BROAD WEST-SW FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.  NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS ON SAT...WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
CEN KS BY SAT AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT BEFORE IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID
LEVEL FLOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SRN KS THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE
WEEK.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AND
LIKELY LONGER.

WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM THE OZARK REGION INTO NM. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL COOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE
RAPIDLY DEVELOPMENT OF CU...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-135. SINCE THE
AIRMASS IS SO DRY BASES ARE AROUND 6000-8000FT. A FEW SPRINKLES
MAYBE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT NOTHING MORE. AS SUNSET
APPROACHES THE CU WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY LONGER.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      55  85  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          56  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        55  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         52  87  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      53  86  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          54  86  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       55  85  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     55  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         54  82  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            54  82  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    54  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KICT 141852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
148 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO INSERT SOME ISO THUNDER MAINLY WEST OF I-135
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
AN OVERALL DECREASE EXPECTED TOWARD SUNSET.

LAWSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AND
LIKELY LONGER.

WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM THE OZARK REGION INTO NM. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL COOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE
RAPIDLY DEVELOPMENT OF CU...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-135. SINCE THE
AIRMASS IS SO DRY BASES ARE AROUND 6000-8000FT. A FEW SPRINKLES
MAYBE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT NOTHING MORE. AS SUNSET
APPROACHES THE CU WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY LONGER.

LAWSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INSERT A MENTION OF SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

A COLD POCKET ALONG THE 300K SOUTH OF KMCI HAS RESULTED IN SOME
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN  A MID LEVEL CU
DECK WITH BASES AROUND 8,000 FT. RECEIVED A FEW REPORT OF SPRINKLES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND FEEL THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

LAWSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED ALTOCU
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THRU MIDDAY...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

KED

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPR-DECK OMEGA BLOCK IS SITUATED OVER THE WRN
U.S. JUST UPSTREAM A COMPACT MID-UPR LOW IS APPROACHING NRN CA.
DOWNSTAIRS A WEAK SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE CNTRL & SRN PLAINS.

TODAY-WED NGT:
THE MID-UPR LOW WILL SLOWLY FORCE THE UPR-DECK RIDGE E OVER THE
ROCKIES THEN OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TODAY & TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE CAUSING THE
MID-UPR PATTERN TO DEAMPLIFY. AS THE OPENING WAVE CROSSES THE CNTRL
ROCKIES SFC TROFFING WILL COMMENCE OVER THE WRN PLAINS ALLOWING A
SLY FLOW TO ASSERT ITSELF BY MID-WEEK. THEREFORE DRY & WARMER
WEATHER IS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR ALL AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

THU-FRI NGT:
ANY CHANCES FOR TSRA FOR THESE PERIODS SHOULD OCCUR THU & THU NGT.
WOULD EXPECT TSRA TO OCCUR JUST NW-NE OF KICT AS THE MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD GET FORCED NE OVER NRN KS & NEBRASKA AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MID-UPR RIDGE COVERING THE MS VALLEY. THE
TRACK/BEHAVIOR OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING AS ANY
SWD SHIFT IN IT`S TRACK WOULD INCREASE TSRA CHANCES FOR CNTRL KS THU
& PERHAPS THU NGT.

NEXT WEEKEND:
TSRA APPEAR MORE PROBABLE AS THE NEXT & STRONGER MID-LVL WAVE
SPRINTS E OVER THE NRN & CNTRL PLAINS. THE WAVE WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT SE TOWARD CNTRL KS ON SAT INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH
LWR AIRMASS. WITH THIS 2ND WAVE SHEARING AS IT TOO ENCOUNTERS THE
STRONG STUBBORN MID-UPR RIDGE COVERING THE SE THIRD OF THE CONUS THE
FRONT SHOULD STALL & TAKE A W-E ORIENTATION IN THE VICINITY OF I-70.
AS SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA IS NOW BEING PICTURED FOR
MUCH OF KICT COUNTRY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VFR CONDITION SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY MON AS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KS ON MON AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GO
SOUTH AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST. -HOWERTON

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  55  84  58 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      78  54  85  57 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          78  55  84  58 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        77  54  83  57 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  54  83  57 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         81  52  87  56 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      80  53  86  56 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          80  54  86  58 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       79  54  85  57 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     78  53  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         77  52  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            77  53  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    78  52  82  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KTOP 141745
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1245 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

FCST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPS THIS WEEK...NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SHEAR AXIS WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SCT MID CLD.
SUBSIDENCE AND PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD HELP MAX TEMPS RISE TO AROUND
80 TODAY. A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING FCST TO REMAIN IN PLACE. 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 18C RANGE SO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S APPEAR A
GOOD BET DESPITE THE COOLER MEX MOS GUIDANCE. THE DISTURBANCE NOW ACROSS
CENTRAL CA IS FCST TO DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH THE REMAINS OF
THE SYSTEM FCST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THU INTO FRI HOWEVER WITH
LITTLE OR NO GULF MOISTURE COMPONENT AND NO LOW LEVEL FOCUS PRECIP
CHCS APPEAR TOO SMALL TO MENTION.

A LARGER POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY
SAT/SUN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

OMITT

&&

.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST IN VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE PERSISTENTLY SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME WITH CU FIELD CLEARING AROUND 0Z.

65

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDDC 141722
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1222 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS TODAY AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY MERIDIONAL TODAY, SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL OCCUR. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND
WILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE, WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
THERMAL ADVECTIONS. WITH ONLY SLIGHT AIRMASS MODIFICATION, MOST
PLACES IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL EXPERIENCE SIMILAR WEATHER AS
SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80F. LOCATIONS IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAT HAD
COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS THE HIGH CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT. SCATTERED
CLOUDS BASED AROUND 7000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 2 AND 7 PM AS
A SHALLOW LAYER OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DEVELOPS AT THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LIGHT. JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. BUT WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING MIXES THIS WARMER AIR
TO THE GROUND ON SUNDAY. WITH 5-7 MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE DEWPOINT, WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME PROVIDING FOR SUNNY DAYS AND
CLEAR NIGHTS.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE
QUITE WEAK RESULTING IN CONTINUED LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.  850MB
TEMPERATURES +19 TO +22C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.  LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 50S MOST EVERYWHERE.  WEDNESDAY...THE LEE TROUGH
WILL FINALLY DEVELOP TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASED WIND.  850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S FOR MOST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE WEST LATE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS THOUGH...A SMALL SCALE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REACHING THE WESTERN PLAINS THURSDAY.  THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS WAVE WITH THE
ECMWF BEING SLOWER...SHOWING THE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE 00Z FRIDAY.  BELIEVE THIS SLOWER SOLUTION
MORE THAN THE FASTER GFS GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER ECMWF SKILL AT THIS
TIME FRAME OVER THE GFS.  WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH (AND THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS).  SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
AT THE SURFACE) WILL CONTINUE ITS ADVANCE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A
TIGHTENING OF THE DRYLINE EXPECTED LATE DAY.  DEPENDING ON THE
DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS QUITE LOW GIVEN WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ADVECTING EASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AND WILL CERTAINLY INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.  THERE IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO A
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SOMETIME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A SOUTHERN POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY OVER COLORADO SATURDAY ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS INCLUDING SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.  WILL BE CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.  WILL ALSO BE
CARRYING 20-30 POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SURFACE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
SOUTH AT A VERY QUICK PACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. CLOUDS AOA060 WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  50  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  80  49  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  78  49  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  80  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  81  50  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
P28  80  54  84  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA 42

000
FXUS63 KGLD 141720
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1120 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

0330Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC PV ANALYSIS INDICATED ELONGATED PV
ANOMALY STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST PORTION OF FOUR CORNERS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ACROSS THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER. AT THE
SFC...1024MB SFC HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR KPUB AND EXTENDED TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE MORNING FOG AND ENDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...FOLLOWED BY DEGREE OF WARM UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH AFOREMENTIONED ELONGATED PV ANOMALY CONTINUING TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH...AGREE WITH LATEST MODELS THAT PRECIPITATION
THREAT WILL END BEFORE 12Z...WHICH MATCHES TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES ON WV IMAGERY FAIRLY WELL.
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. FOR THE FOG THREAT...WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND
ADJUST AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST DATA AND HOW OBSERVATIONS RESPOND
ONCE SKIES CLEAR.  WITH LOTS OF SUN AND DEEP MIXING
EXPECTED...LEANING TOWARDS THE WARMER SOLUTIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. AM CONCERNED THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXED LAYER DATA
SUPPORTS DEWPOINTS DROPPING SHARPLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE GROWING
SEASON ALREADY STARTED THINK EVAPOTRANSPIRATION MY KEEP TDS UP
SLIGHTLY...BUT THINK A DOWNWARD TREND IN ORDER.

TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL INHIBIT ANY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY KEEPING CWA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S AT
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW 90S POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CWA. THOUGHT
ABOUT GOING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 90S IN THIS LOCATION...BUT DOES
APPEAR WEAK FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE EAST AND MAY INHIBITED MIXING SOMEWHAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD BRINGING CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE/NO PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WYOMING AND ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM BRINGING STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE AREA
MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE PV ANOMALY LOOKS STRONG AND DIV Q
FIELDS SUGGEST A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
TROUGH...MUCH OF CWA WILL BE IN VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES DOWN TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
AN AIRMASS THIS DRY...HAVE CONCERN OF ANY POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE REALIZED AS WILL TAKE A LARGE AMOUNT OF ASCENT TO BRING ANY
PARCEL TO LCL. FOR NOW...THINK A SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS IS
WARRANTED MAINLY IN THE EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY LARGE AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION.  IN ADDITION TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO  15 TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION...SEE SOME THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER AS  HUMIDITIES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. STILL UNSURE OF
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IMPACTS ON SFC TDS WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
SOMEWHAT AND WITH QUESTIONABLE FUELS DO NOT PLAN ANY HIGHLIGHT AT
THE MOMENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
LOWEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. ON
THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL CAUSE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY...AND A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. MODELS APPEAR TO BE SPEEDING UP THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT DURING DAYTIME ON SUNDAY...AND CONSIDERING MAX
TEMPERATURES...I AM LEAST CONFIDENT ABOUT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
FRONT MOVING THIS QUICKLY...TEMPERATURES OUT EAST MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2012

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM EACH DAY...REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
IN MANY LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WHICH WILL MINIMIZE THE FIRE DANGER THESE
AFTERNOONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF FUELS ARE CURED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/CJS
AVIATION...BAS
FIRE WEATHER...JRM

000
FXUS63 KICT 141714
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012


.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AND
LIKELY LONGER.

WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM THE OZARK REGION INTO NM. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL COOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE
RAPIDL DEVELOPMENT OF CU...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-135. SINCE THE
AIRMASS IS SO DRY BASES ARE AROUND 6000-8000FT. A FEW SPRINKLES
MAYBE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT NOTHING MORE. AS SUNSET
APPROACHES THE CU WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY LONGER.

LAWSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INSERT A MENTION OF SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

A COLD POCKET ALONG THE 300K SOUTH OF KMCI HAS RESULTED IN SOME
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN  A MID LEVEL CU
DECK WITH BASES AROUND 8,000 FT. RECEIVED A FEW REPORT OF SPRINKLES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND FEEL THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

LAWSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED ALTOCU
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THRU MIDDAY...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

KED

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPR-DECK OMEGA BLOCK IS SITUATED OVER THE WRN
U.S. JUST UPSTREAM A COMPACT MID-UPR LOW IS APPROACHING NRN CA.
DOWNSTAIRS A WEAK SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE CNTRL & SRN PLAINS.

TODAY-WED NGT:
THE MID-UPR LOW WILL SLOWLY FORCE THE UPR-DECK RIDGE E OVER THE
ROCKIES THEN OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TODAY & TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE CAUSING THE
MID-UPR PATTERN TO DEAMPLIFY. AS THE OPENING WAVE CROSSES THE CNTRL
ROCKIES SFC TROFFING WILL COMMENCE OVER THE WRN PLAINS ALLOWING A
SLY FLOW TO ASSERT ITSELF BY MID-WEEK. THEREFORE DRY & WARMER
WEATHER IS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR ALL AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

THU-FRI NGT:
ANY CHANCES FOR TSRA FOR THESE PERIODS SHOULD OCCUR THU & THU NGT.
WOULD EXPECT TSRA TO OCCUR JUST NW-NE OF KICT AS THE MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD GET FORCED NE OVER NRN KS & NEBRASKA AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MID-UPR RIDGE COVERING THE MS VALLEY. THE
TRACK/BEHAVIOR OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING AS ANY
SWD SHIFT IN IT`S TRACK WOULD INCREASE TSRA CHANCES FOR CNTRL KS THU
& PERHAPS THU NGT.

NEXT WEEKEND:
TSRA APPEAR MORE PROBABLE AS THE NEXT & STRONGER MID-LVL WAVE
SPRINTS E OVER THE NRN & CNTRL PLAINS. THE WAVE WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT SE TOWARD CNTRL KS ON SAT INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH
LWR AIRMASS. WITH THIS 2ND WAVE SHEARING AS IT TOO ENCOUNTERS THE
STRONG STUBBORN MID-UPR RIDGE COVERING THE SE THIRD OF THE CONUS THE
FRONT SHOULD STALL & TAKE A W-E ORIENTATION IN THE VICINITY OF I-70.
AS SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA IS NOW BEING PICTURED FOR
MUCH OF KICT COUNTRY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VFR CONDITION SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY MON AS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KS ON MON AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GO
SOUTH AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST. -HOWERTON

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  55  84  58 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      78  54  85  57 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          78  55  84  58 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        77  54  83  57 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  54  83  57 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         81  52  87  56 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      80  53  86  56 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          80  54  86  58 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       79  54  85  57 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     78  53  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         77  52  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            77  53  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    78  52  82  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KICT 141434
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
933 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INSERT A MENTION OF SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

A COLD POCKET ALONG THE 300K SOUTH OF KMCI HAS RESULTED IN SOME
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN  A MID LEVEL CU
DECK WITH BASES AROUND 8,000 FT. RECEIVED A FEW REPORT OF SPRINKLES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND FEEL THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED ALTOCU
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THRU MIDDAY...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

KED

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPR-DECK OMEGA BLOCK IS SITUATED OVER THE WRN
U.S. JUST UPSTREAM A COMPACT MID-UPR LOW IS APPROACHING NRN CA.
DOWNSTAIRS A WEAK SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE CNTRL & SRN PLAINS.

TODAY-WED NGT:
THE MID-UPR LOW WILL SLOWLY FORCE THE UPR-DECK RIDGE E OVER THE
ROCKIES THEN OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TODAY & TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE CAUSING THE
MID-UPR PATTERN TO DEAMPLIFY. AS THE OPENING WAVE CROSSES THE CNTRL
ROCKIES SFC TROFFING WILL COMMENCE OVER THE WRN PLAINS ALLOWING A
SLY FLOW TO ASSERT ITSELF BY MID-WEEK. THEREFORE DRY & WARMER
WEATHER IS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR ALL AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

THU-FRI NGT:
ANY CHANCES FOR TSRA FOR THESE PERIODS SHOULD OCCUR THU & THU NGT.
WOULD EXPECT TSRA TO OCCUR JUST NW-NE OF KICT AS THE MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD GET FORCED NE OVER NRN KS & NEBRASKA AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MID-UPR RIDGE COVERING THE MS VALLEY. THE
TRACK/BEHAVIOR OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING AS ANY
SWD SHIFT IN IT`S TRACK WOULD INCREASE TSRA CHANCES FOR CNTRL KS THU
& PERHAPS THU NGT.

NEXT WEEKEND:
TSRA APPEAR MORE PROBABLE AS THE NEXT & STRONGER MID-LVL WAVE
SPRINTS E OVER THE NRN & CNTRL PLAINS. THE WAVE WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT SE TOWARD CNTRL KS ON SAT INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH
LWR AIRMASS. WITH THIS 2ND WAVE SHEARING AS IT TOO ENCOUNTERS THE
STRONG STUBBORN MID-UPR RIDGE COVERING THE SE THIRD OF THE CONUS THE
FRONT SHOULD STALL & TAKE A W-E ORIENTATION IN THE VICINITY OF I-70.
AS SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA IS NOW BEING PICTURED FOR
MUCH OF KICT COUNTRY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VFR CONDITION SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY MON AS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KS ON MON AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GO
SOUTH AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST. -HOWERTON

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  55  84  58 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      78  54  85  57 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          78  55  84  58 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        77  54  83  57 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  54  83  57 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         81  52  87  56 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      80  53  86  56 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          80  54  86  58 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       79  54  85  57 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     78  53  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         77  52  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            77  53  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    78  52  82  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$