000
FXUS63 KJKL 161157
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
757 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON OBS. ALSO
ADJUSTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY FOG BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOG IS APPARENT IN THE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING ON FOG CHANNEL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OBSERVATIONS IN TYPICALLY FOGGY VALLEYS ARE
SHOWING 1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY...WITH LIGHTER FOG ELSEWHERE.
DECIDED TO LET THE SPS RIDE AT THIS POINT AND NOT UPGRADE TO AN NPW.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS OUTSIDE OF THE MOST FOG PRONE
VALLEYS TO SEE IF VISIBILITY CRASHES. FOG SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BY AROUND 9 AM...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY MID DAY.

LATE TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...SHOW SOME POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS MAINLY IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
NOTHING SPECIAL NOTED ALOFT. WILL CARRY JUST A 20 PERCENT POP NEAR
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. WILL LOOK FOR ANY PRECIP TO DIE OUT WITH
STABILIZATION TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN PUSH OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR THE TN BORDER ON THURSDAY FOR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO LOOK SUSPICIOUS FOR SHOWERS...BUT WITH THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL USE A DRY
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND THE OHIO VALLEY. A SPLIT
FLOW LOOKS TO BE TAKING SHAPE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AS A UPPER
LOW UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AND POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.
WHILE EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...THE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE A MOIST FLOW INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. THIS SET UP WILL PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND WITH WHAT THE CR
CAME IN WITH...WILL GO DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH
ALONG THE PIEDMONT ALLOWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND A LESS CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE TO CREEP INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE...A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE AND MAKES
IT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH A SLOWLY EXITING RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST...THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND THIS WAS
SUPPORTED WITH THE BLEND PROCEDURE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAY AND AS
SUCH WILL EXPECT A FAIR SHARE OF THUNDER IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 757 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

AT TAF ISSUANCE FOG WAS PRESENT IN DEEP VALLEYS...AND IN SE KY HAD
CREPT OUTWARD FROM DEEP VALLEYS TO AFFECT SOME OTHER AREAS AS WELL.
IT WAS BRINGING VISIBILITY LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE TO MANY AREAS
AFFECTED. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15Z...WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS CAN DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH...IN WHICH CASE LOCALIZED MVFR COULD RESULT. THIS
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM....SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL

000
FXUS63 KPAH 161121 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
621 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER SUPPORT COMBINED WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BUBBLE
UP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...THEN
MIGRATE SOUTHWARD WITH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.

BEYOND THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. FOR SOME REASON THE NAM12 SPITS OUT A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF QPF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY OVER/NEAR THE
BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED DYNAMICS AND THE
FACT THAT NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS...WILL KEEP
DRY AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES EARLY
ON SATURDAY...AND IT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY...AS
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TRIES TO MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

THE GFS HINTS AT SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AND
MAYBE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS DRY ON SATURDAY BUT SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
SLINGING TOWARD US ON SUNDAY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
FL/GA/AL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED AS MOISTURE AND WARMTH COMBINE TO CREATE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND
RELATIVELY NO CAP TO DEAL WITH.

IT SEEMS THE SLOWER ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED AS OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS APPROACH BUT IS STILL NOT AS SLOW
AS THE ECMWF...BUT AT LEAST IT IS TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. STILL
THINK THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP IN OUR WESTERNMOST
SECTIONS SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

THE PROBLEM IS THAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA...IT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEAKENS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE GFS. THE
DIFFERENCE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF IS THAT WHILE THE FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY
STRONG...ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. THE
00Z ECMWF CAME IN AND NOW DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOW MEANDERS IN OUR VICINITY FOR A FEW
DAYS. SO FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING AS THERE IS A
TREND AND SIGNAL IN THE MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT GOOD
CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN. WILL LET MODELS HASH OUT THE DETAILS
WITH FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANYING A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 MPH WILL
VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH AROUND MIDDAY...THEN AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
AFT 01Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....CW

000
FXUS63 KLMK 161023
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
623 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.Short Term (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT May 16 2012

Currently, a cold frontal boundary was located across the Lower
Great Lakes, with a pre-frontal dewpoint boundary stretched across
central IN. Convection along the cold front is dissipating as it
approaches this drier air further south. Area dewpoints this far
south have stayed up in the mid to upper 50s, so with temps dropping
into the upper 50s and clear skies/light winds, light fog will be
possible in many areas across central and south-central KY, in
particular in river valleys and other low-lying areas. Higher clouds
pushing in from the north will keep fog to a minimum around the Ohio
River.

Later today, short-term mesoscale models have showers and storms
re-developing along the cold front as it sags southward across
south-central IN. Convection should pop up somewhere around the Ohio
River after 3pm, but should remain fairly isolated or scattered
along the front itself. Think there`s a good chance for isolated
cells, but since many areas will remain dry, will keep isolated
wording in the grids this afternoon. As the cold front pushes south,
POPs will move southward, as well, into the early evening hours.
Showers/storms will dissipate before midnight most likely with the
loss of daytime heating.

Not sure the front will completely push through our CWA to the south
by late tonight. It could hang up around south-central KY through
Thursday. Will keep our south dry on Thursday, but will at least
beef up cloud cover there in case a renegade shower/storm does
develop north of the KY/TN border. Otherwise, high pressure at the
surface will slide across our area to the north, shifting our winds
from southwesterly today, to northerly behind the front this
evening, to easterly on Thursday.

Concerning temps, we should heat up more than what the grids show
given the lower dewpoints and good mixing that will likely occur
ahead of the cold front today. Clouds shouldn`t keep temps from
rising, so will go with highs around 80 to the north to the mid 80s
southwest. Tonight, lows will drop over the north behind the front,
maybe as low as 50 in spots. With the front possibly hanging up
around the KY/TN border, have upper 50s for lows tomorrow night
there. May also be some light fog formation near that same area
tomorrow night, as well. Highs Thursday under high pressure and
mostly sunny skies will top out in the upper 70s to the low 80s.

.Long Term (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT May 16 2012

With high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft, the long term
period will start out dry with warming temperatures. Surface high
pressure will initially be just north of the forecast area on
Thursday night and shift east through the weekend. Meanwhile,
ridging will build in aloft. Combined, these will keep the area
mainly dry through the latter half of the work week and into the
weekend. The models are advertising the possibility of an isolated
shower/thunderstorm or two in the afternoon Saturday and possibly
Sunday. However, with much uncertainty in this remaining, the
forecast will remain dry for now. High temperatures will be in the
lower to possibly upper 80s in some locations across the
southwestern CWA. Lows will be in the 50s on Friday morning and in
the lower 60s over the weekend.

A front will approach the region on Monday and looks to move through
on Monday night or Tuesday. Through the day Monday, isolated
thunderstorms may develop ahead of the front. The better chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday along the front, with the
help of daytime heating. Chances for precip will slowly diminish
from northwest to southeast through Tuesday night into Wednesday.
With the chances for precip and cloud cover, temperatures will be a
bit cooler than the weekend, though they will still top out in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows will be in the lower 60s.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 623 AM EDT May 16 2012

Light fog across the region may keep area terminals hovering in the
MVFR range this morning through 13z. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies
are expected through midday until a cold front approaches from the
north later this afternoon. Clouds will increase but mostly right
along the front, but still remaining VFR. This cold front could
spark isolated showers/thunderstorms mainly for SDF or LEX after
20z. Coverage will likely be too small to include in TAFs, but will
go ahead and mention a VCTS/CB during the best time frame just to
give folks a head`s up. Winds ahead of the front will veer around to
the west-southwest, and behind the front to the north and eventually
northeast beyond 03z tonight.

Clouds throughout the period should be VFR, but brief MVFR
conditions are possible if a TSRA/SHRA occurs at one of the
terminals.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......AL
Long Term........EER
Aviation.........AL

000
FXUS63 KJKL 160803 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
402 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOG IS APPARENT IN THE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING ON FOG CHANNEL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OBSERVATIONS IN TYPICALLY FOGGY VALLEYS ARE
SHOWING 1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY...WITH LIGHTER FOG ELSEWHERE.
DECIDED TO LET THE SPS RIDE AT THIS POINT AND NOT UPGRADE TO AN NPW.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS OUTSIDE OF THE MOST FOG PRONE
VALLEYS TO SEE IF VISIBILITY CRASHES. FOG SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BY AROUND 9 AM...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY MID DAY.

LATE TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...SHOW SOME POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS MAINLY IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
NOTHING SPECIAL NOTED ALOFT. WILL CARRY JUST A 20 PERCENT POP NEAR
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. WILL LOOK FOR ANY PRECIP TO DIE OUT WITH
STABILIZATION TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN PUSH OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR THE TN BORDER ON THURSDAY FOR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO LOOK SUSPICIOUS FOR SHOWERS...BUT WITH THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL USE A DRY
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND THE OHIO VALLEY. A SPLIT
FLOW LOOKS TO BE TAKING SHAPE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AS A UPPER
LOW UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AND POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.
WHILE EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...THE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE A MOIST FLOW INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. THIS SET UP WILL PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND WITH WHAT THE CR
CAME IN WITH...WILL GO DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH
ALONG THE PIEDMONT ALLOWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND A LESS CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE TO CREEP INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE...A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE AND MAKES
IT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH A SLOWLY EXITING RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST...THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND THIS WAS
SUPPORTED WITH THE BLEND PROCEDURE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAY AND AS
SUCH WILL EXPECT A FAIR SHARE OF THUNDER IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOG HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED IN DEEP VALLEYS NEAR RIVERS AND LARGE
STREAMS BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE...BRINGING VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN THE WORST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A MORE LIMITED IMPACT ON TALL RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15Z...WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS CAN DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH...IN WHICH CASE LOCALIZED MVFR COULD RESULT. THIS WOULD BE MOST


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM....SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL

000
FXUS63 KJKL 160800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOG IS APPARENT IN THE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING ON FOG CHANNEL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OBSERVATIONS IN TYPICALLY FOGGY VALLEYS ARE
SHOWING 1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY...WITH LIGHTER FOG ELSEWHERE.
DECIDED TO LET THE SPS RIDE AT THIS POINT AND NOT UPGRADE TO AN NPW.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS OUTSIDE OF THE MOST FOG PRONE
VALLEYS TO SEE IF VISIBILITY CRASHES. FOG SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BY AROUND 9 AM...LEAVING MOSTLY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES BY MID DAY.

LATE TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...SHOW SOME POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS MAINLY IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
NOTHING SPECIAL NOTED ALOFT. WILL CARRY JUST A 20 PERCENT POP NEAR
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. WILL LOOK FOR ANY PRECIP TO DIE OUT WITH
STABILIZATION TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN PUSH OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ENOUGHT MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR THE TN BORDER ON THURSDAY FOR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO LOOK SUSPICIOUS FOR SHOWERS...BUT WITH THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...WILL USE A DRY
FORECAST


.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND THE OHIO VALLEY. A SPLIT
FLOW LOOKS TO BE TAKING SHAPE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AS A UPPER
LOW UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AND POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.
WHILE EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...THE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE A MOIST FLOW INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. THIS SET UP WILL PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND WITH WHAT THE CR
CAME IN WITH...WILL GO DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH
ALONG THE PIEDMONT ALLOWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND A LESS CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE TO CREEP INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE...A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE AND MAKES
IT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH A SLOWLY EXITING RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST...THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND THIS WAS
SUPPORTED WITH THE BLEND PROCEDURE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAY AND AS
SUCH WILL EXPECT A FAIR SHARE OF THUNDER IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOG HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED IN DEEP VALLEYS NEAR RIVERS AND LARGE
STREAMS BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE...BRINGING VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN THE WORST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A MORE LIMITED IMPACT ON TALL RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15Z...WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS CAN DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH...IN WHICH CASE LOCALIZED MVFR COULD RESULT. THIS WOULD BE MOST


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM....SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL

000
FXUS63 KPAH 160751
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
251 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER SUPPORT COMBINED WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BUBBLE
UP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...THEN
MIGRATE SOUTHWARD WITH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.

BEYOND THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. FOR SOME REASON THE NAM12 SPITS OUT A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF QPF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY OVER/NEAR THE
BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED DYNAMICS AND THE
FACT THAT NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS...WILL KEEP
DRY AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES EARLY
ON SATURDAY...AND IT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY...AS
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TRIES TO MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

THE GFS HINTS AT SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AND
MAYBE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS DRY ON SATURDAY BUT SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
SLINGING TOWARD US ON SUNDAY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
FL/GA/AL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED AS MOISTURE AND WARMTH COMBINE TO CREATE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND
RELATIVELY NO CAP TO DEAL WITH.

IT SEEMS THE SLOWER ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED AS OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS APPROACH BUT IS STILL NOT AS SLOW
AS THE ECMWF...BUT AT LEAST IT IS TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. STILL
THINK THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP IN OUR WESTERNMOST
SECTIONS SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

THE PROBLEM IS THAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA...IT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEAKENS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE GFS. THE
DIFFERENCE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF IS THAT WHILE THE FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY
STRONG...ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. THE
00Z ECMWF CAME IN AND NOW DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOW MEANDERS IN OUR VICINITY FOR A FEW
DAYS. SO FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING AS THERE IS A
TREND AND SIGNAL IN THE MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT GOOD
CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN. WILL LET MODELS HASH OUT THE DETAILS
WITH FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPARSE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....CW

000
FXUS63 KJKL 160739
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
339 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING QUICKLY IN
VALLEYS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR IT. WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT DO NOT YET HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG TO
SPREAD MUCH BEYOND ITS COMMON VALLEY LOCATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REIGN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AS
AFTERNOON CU HAS DISSIPATED AND ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE MIDDLE
50S IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER SHELTERED VALLEYS. GIVEN THE
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT
SOME FEW LOCATIONS TO SEE UPPER 40S...WITH FOG A BIT MORE CONFINED TO
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. RIDGES ARE ALSO
STAYING A BIT MILDER TONIGHT...SO WILL INCLUDE A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT.
ACCORDINGLY...RECONFIGURED THE DIURNAL COOL DOWN TO BETTER MATCH THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN DISSIPATING A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST...SO
MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS WELL AS THE
REST OF THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS. WILL REASSESS THE LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT LATER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENDED UP PUTTING SOME PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF WAS ALSO SHOWING THE FRONT PRODUCING
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL BE FALLING
APART AS IT ENTERS THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT MAY NOT HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE AREA
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS IS LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO BREAK UP TODAY...HOWEVER SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS STRATUS THAT BUILT DOWN AND SO
SOME OF THE HEAVIEST FOG WAS AT UPPER AND MID ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START
TO BREAK APART. THIS IS A HARD CALL WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WILL WAIN
UNTIL THE NEW ECMWF TO COME OUT BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. RIGHT
NOW...LEANING ON NO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES...RAISED THEM A BIT FOR TONIGHT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...KEPT THEM CLOSE TO
THE MODEL BLEND VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND THE OHIO VALLEY. A SPLIT
FLOW LOOKS TO BE TAKING SHAPE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AS A UPPER
LOW UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AND POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.
WHILE EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...THE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE A MOIST FLOW INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. THIS SET UP WILL PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND WITH WHAT THE CR
CAME IN WITH...WILL GO DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH
ALONG THE PIEDMONT ALLOWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND A LESS CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE TO CREEP INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE...A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE AND MAKES
IT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH A SLOWLY EXITING RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST...THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND THIS WAS
SUPPORTED WITH THE BLEND PROCEDURE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAY AND AS
SUCH WILL EXPECT A FAIR SHARE OF THUNDER IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOG HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED IN DEEP VALLEYS NEAR RIVERS AND LARGE
STREAMS BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE...BRINGING VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN THE WORST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A MORE LIMITED IMPACT ON TALL RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15Z...WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS CAN DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH...IN WHICH CASE LOCALIZED MVFR COULD RESULT. THIS WOULD BE MOST


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN/JJ
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL

000
FXUS63 KLMK 160705
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
304 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.Short Term (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT May 16 2012

Currently, a cold frontal boundary was located across the Lower
Great Lakes, with a pre-frontal dewpoint boundary stretched across
central IN. Convection along the cold front is dissipating as it
approaches this drier air further south. Area dewpoints this far
south have stayed up in the mid to upper 50s, so with temps dropping
into the upper 50s and clear skies/light winds, light fog will be
possible in many areas across central and south-central KY, in
particular in river valleys and other low-lying areas. Higher clouds
pushing in from the north will keep fog to a minimum around the Ohio
River.

Later today, short-term mesoscale models have showers and storms
re-developing along the cold front as it sags southward across
south-central IN. Convection should pop up somewhere around the Ohio
River after 3pm, but should remain fairly isolated or scattered
along the front itself. Think there`s a good chance for isolated
cells, but since many areas will remain dry, will keep isolated
wording in the grids this afternoon. As the cold front pushes south,
POPs will move southward, as well, into the early evening hours.
Showers/storms will dissipate before midnight most likely with the
loss of daytime heating.

Not sure the front will completely push through our CWA to the south
by late tonight. It could hang up around south-central KY through
Thursday. Will keep our south dry on Thursday, but will at least
beef up cloud cover there in case a renegade shower/storm does
develop north of the KY/TN border. Otherwise, high pressure at the
surface will slide across our area to the north, shifting our winds
from southwesterly today, to northerly behind the front this
evening, to easterly on Thursday.

Concerning temps, we should heat up more than what the grids show
given the lower dewpoints and good mixing that will likely occur
ahead of the cold front today. Clouds shouldn`t keep temps from
rising, so will go with highs around 80 to the north to the mid 80s
southwest. Tonight, lows will drop over the north behind the front,
maybe as low as 50 in spots. With the front possibly hanging up
around the KY/TN border, have upper 50s for lows tomorrow night
there. May also be some light fog formation near that same area
tomorrow night, as well. Highs Thursday under high pressure and
mostly sunny skies will top out in the upper 70s to the low 80s.

.Long Term (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT May 16 2012

With high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft, the long term
period will start out dry with warming temperatures. Surface high
pressure will initially be just north of the forecast area on
Thursday night and shift east through the weekend. Meanwhile,
ridging will build in aloft. Combined, these will keep the area
mainly dry through the latter half of the work week and into the
weekend. The models are advertising the possibility of an isolated
shower/thunderstorm or two in the afternoon Saturday and possibly
Sunday. However, with much uncertainty in this remaining, the
forecast will remain dry for now. High temperatures will be in the
lower to possibly upper 80s in some locations across the
southwestern CWA. Lows will be in the 50s on Friday morning and in
the lower 60s over the weekend.

A front will approach the region on Monday and looks to move through
on Monday night or Tuesday. Through the day Monday, isolated
thunderstorms may develop ahead of the front. The better chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday along the front, with the
help of daytime heating. Chances for precip will slowly diminish
from northwest to southeast through Tuesday night into Wednesday.
With the chances for precip and cloud cover, temperatures will be a
bit cooler than the weekend, though they will still top out in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows will be in the lower 60s.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 125 AM EDT May 16 2012

VFR conditions are holding strong now, and should mostly continue
for the rest of the overnight period. Only exception may be towards
daybreak with some fog over KBWG. Kept VSBYs at BWG in the MVFR
category for now, but may need an IFR tempo there if conditions
worsen more than expected.

Otherwise, a cold front to our northwest will approach later today,
bringing with it a good chance for isolated showers/storms. But
since coverage will be minimal, will leave SHRA/TSRA mention out of
the TAFs for now. Will beef up VFR cloud cover for best time frame
of isolated convection, which will be between 18-23z at SDF and LEX,
and between 20-01z at BWG. Southwest winds will veer around from the
southwest to the northwest and eventually northeast with the cold
frontal passage towards the end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......AL
Long Term........EER
Aviation.........AL

000
FXUS63 KLMK 160527
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
127 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.Short Term (Today through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 340 PM EDT May 15 2012

High pressure continues to dominate the Ohio Valley, however, a CU
field has been developing over much of southern Indiana and central
Kentucky this afternoon. Rain chances look to remain next to null
through this evening, although one radar return did show up over
Louisville. PoP chances will need to be monitored through the rest
of this evening, but confidence remains that anything that does
develop will be sparse and short-lived. There are no PoPs in the
grids for tonight as cloud cover will thin out after sunset and
allow for fog to develop once again, generally sticking to just
rivers and other highly-prone fog areas. An approaching weakening
frontal boundary currently located over Wisconsin, stretching
southwest into northwestern Kansas will allow for the slight chance
of thunderstorms to pop up on Wednesday afternoon. There won`t be a
whole lot for storms to work with so any development tomorrow
afternoon will be diurnal in nature at best. Otherwise, a generally
continued benign weather pattern will persist for this period.

Winds will remain light during the days today and tomorrow and will
be calm overnight. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will
be near normal, with temps in the mid to upper 50s. Wednesday highs
will linger near the 80 degree mark.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT May 15 2012

Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday, behind
the departing surface front. With surface high pressure and ridging
aloft, expect dry conditions Thursday through most, if not all, of
the weekend. Currently think any shower and thunderstorm chance will
be confined to the higher terrain south and east of the forecast
area. However, there could be an isolated thunderstorm Saturday or
Sunday afternoon across the southeast. Given the latest data, it is
too low confidence to carry PoPs either day. The surface high will
shift slowly east, with winds becoming southerly by Saturday. Max
temperatures Thursday will range from the mid 70s to low 80s under
mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will continue to warm into the
weekend, with generally low and mid 80s expected Saturday and
Sunday. Overnight lows will slowly warm as well. Anticipate lows in
the low and mid 50s Friday morning, with lower 60s likely by Sunday
morning.

By the beginning of the new work week, the ridge aloft will be
shifted to our east with a surface frontal boundary approaching our
northwest forecast area Monday. The latest GFS now agrees with the
ECMWF and NAEFS data depicting a slightly slower solution, with
higher rain and thunderstorm chances being Monday night and
especially Tuesday. Will transition higher PoPs into the Monday
night and Tuesday time periods. So, isolated thunderstorms will be
possible Monday, with a better chance of scattered thunderstorms for
Tuesday. Temperatures will cool a bit with clouds and precip around.
Highs Monday and Tuesday appear to top out in the upper 70s and low
80s. Overnight lows will show a similar trend, with upper 50s to
right around 60 degrees expected by Tuesday morning.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 125 AM EDT May 16 2012

VFR conditions are holding strong now, and should mostly continue
for the rest of the overnight period. Only exception may be towards
daybreak with some fog over KBWG. Kept VSBYs at BWG in the MVFR
category for now, but may need an IFR tempo there if conditions
worsen more than expected.

Otherwise, a cold front to our northwest will approach later today,
bringing with it a good chance for isolated showers/storms. But
since coverage will be minimal, will leave SHRA/TSRA mention out of
the TAFs for now. Will beef up VFR cloud cover for best time frame
of isolated convection, which will be between 18-23z at SDF and LEX,
and between 20-01z at BWG. Southwest winds will veer around from the
southwest to the northwest and eventually northeast with the cold
frontal passage towards the end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......LG
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........AL

000
FXUS63 KJKL 160513
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
113 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING QUICKLY IN
VALLEYS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR IT. WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT DO NOT YET HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG TO
SPREAD MUCH BEYOND ITS COMMON VALLEY LOCATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REIGN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AS
AFTERNOON CU HAS DISSIPATED AND ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE MIDDLE
50S IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER SHELTERED VALLEYS. GIVEN THE
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT
SOME FEW LOCATIONS TO SEE UPPER 40S...WITH FOG A BIT MORE CONFINED TO
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. RIDGES ARE ALSO
STAYING A BIT MILDER TONIGHT...SO WILL INCLUDE A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT.
ACCORDINGLY...RECONFIGURED THE DIURNAL COOL DOWN TO BETTER MATCH THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN DISSIPATING A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST...SO
MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS WELL AS THE
REST OF THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS. WILL REASSESS THE LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT LATER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENDED UP PUTTING SOME PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF WAS ALSO SHOWING THE FRONT PRODUCING
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL BE FALLING
APART AS IT ENTERS THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT MAY NOT HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE AREA
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS IS LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO BREAK UP TODAY...HOWEVER SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS STRATUS THAT BUILT DOWN AND SO
SOME OF THE HEAVIEST FOG WAS AT UPPER AND MID ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START
TO BREAK APART. THIS IS A HARD CALL WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WILL WAIN
UNTIL THE NEW ECMWF TO COME OUT BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. RIGHT
NOW...LEANING ON NO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES...RAISED THEM A BIT FOR TONIGHT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...KEPT THEM CLOSE TO
THE MODEL BLEND VALUES.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AS SUCH WILL
FOLLOW A GENERIC BLEND OF THE 15/12Z SUITE FOR THE DETAILS. WE BEGIN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. SIGNS POINT
TOWARDS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN U.S BY
FRIDAY AS A BLOCKING HIGH SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL WX RELATIVELY QUIET...IF NOT DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE CAVEAT
HERE IS THAT AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON POP UP
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
OF AN OUTLIER WITH ITS DEPICTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FCST
SOUNDINGS ATTM INDICATE A CAP...ALBEIT A RELATIVELY WEAK ONE AROUND
THE 8-10 KFT LAYER AND THIS SHOULD CURB ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.
WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FCST IN TACT BUT WILL INCH POPS UP FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DIURNAL FLAVOR WHILE KEEPING ANY MENTION
OF RAIN OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

BY SUNDAY MODELS HAVE THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST
COAST...BUT STILL MAINTAINING AN INFLUENCE LOCALLY. UPSTREAM...A
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING THE U.S. AND CANADIAN PLAINS
LOOKS TO USHER A SFC LOW FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY TO AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TAIL OF
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BEGIN APPROACHING ERN KY
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE EAST
OF THE AREA AND A RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON POP UP ON MONDAY AT THIS POINT AND WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH BETTER CHANCES
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO RESIDE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FCST WINDOW AND
AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO USE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...DID NOT
SEE A NEED TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED MODEL BLEND.
THIS RESULTED IN MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED NUMBERS...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND...AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID MAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOG HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED IN DEEP VALLEYS NEAR RIVERS AND LARGE
STREAMS BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE...BRINGING VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN THE WORST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A MORE LIMITED IMPACT ON TALL RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15Z...WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS CAN DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH...IN WHICH CASE LOCALIZED MVFR COULD RESULT. THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN/JJ
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...HAL

000
FXUS63 KJKL 160422
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1222 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REIGN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AS
AFTERNOON CU HAS DISSIPATED AND ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE MIDDLE
50S IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER SHELTERED VALLEYS. GIVEN THE
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT
SOME FEW LOCATIONS TO SEE UPPER 40S...WITH FOG A BIT MORE CONFINED TO
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. RIDGES ARE ALSO
STAYING A BIT MILDER TONIGHT...SO WILL INCLUDE A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT.
ACCORDINGLY...RECONFIGURED THE DIURNAL COOL DOWN TO BETTER MATCH THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN DISSIPATING A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST...SO
MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS WELL AS THE
REST OF THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS. WILL REASSESS THE LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT LATER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENDED UP PUTTING SOME PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF WAS ALSO SHOWING THE FRONT PRODUCING
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL BE FALLING
APART AS IT ENTERS THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT MAY NOT HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE AREA
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS IS LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO BREAK UP TODAY...HOWEVER SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS STRATUS THAT BUILT DOWN AND SO
SOME OF THE HEAVIEST FOG WAS AT UPPER AND MID ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START
TO BREAK APART. THIS IS A HARD CALL WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WILL WAIN
UNTIL THE NEW ECMWF TO COME OUT BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. RIGHT
NOW...LEANING ON NO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES...RAISED THEM A BIT FOR TONIGHT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...KEPT THEM CLOSE TO
THE MODEL BLEND VALUES.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AS SUCH WILL
FOLLOW A GENERIC BLEND OF THE 15/12Z SUITE FOR THE DETAILS. WE BEGIN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. SIGNS POINT
TOWARDS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN U.S BY
FRIDAY AS A BLOCKING HIGH SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL WX RELATIVELY QUIET...IF NOT DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE CAVEAT
HERE IS THAT AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON POP UP
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
OF AN OUTLIER WITH ITS DEPICTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FCST
SOUNDINGS ATTM INDICATE A CAP...ALBEIT A RELATIVELY WEAK ONE AROUND
THE 8-10 KFT LAYER AND THIS SHOULD CURB ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.
WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FCST IN TACT BUT WILL INCH POPS UP FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DIURNAL FLAVOR WHILE KEEPING ANY MENTION
OF RAIN OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

BY SUNDAY MODELS HAVE THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST
COAST...BUT STILL MAINTAINING AN INFLUENCE LOCALLY. UPSTREAM...A
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING THE U.S. AND CANADIAN PLAINS
LOOKS TO USHER A SFC LOW FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY TO AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TAIL OF
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BEGIN APPROACHING ERN KY
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE EAST
OF THE AREA AND A RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON POP UP ON MONDAY AT THIS POINT AND WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH BETTER CHANCES
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO RESIDE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FCST WINDOW AND
AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO USE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...DID NOT
SEE A NEED TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED MODEL BLEND.
THIS RESULTED IN MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED NUMBERS...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND...AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID MAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOG HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED IN DEEP VALLEYS NEAR RIVERS AND LARGE
STREAMS BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE...BRINGING VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN THE WORST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A MORE LIMITED IMPACT ON TALL RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15Z...WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IF
ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH...IN WHICH
CASE LOCALIZED MVFR COULD RESULT. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...HAL

000
FXUS63 KPAH 160355
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1054 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

INTERESTING TEMP AND DEW POINT OUTCOME THIS AFTERNOON. SOME KIND
OF MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER WEST KENTUCKY...AND NEAR THAT
DISCONTINUITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...MAINLY FROM
AROUND THE LAKES AREA EASTWARD. OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...GOOD
MIXING FROM 6-8K/FT HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN MANY AREAS. TEMPS JUMPED IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE AS WELL.

WILL LINGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN WEST KENTUCKY NEAR EXISTING
RETURNS ON RADAR THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT.

MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS
FRONT. BUT WITH SOME FRONTAL FORCING...AND WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
FORECAST...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION. KIND OF FAVOR THE
CONSISTENT NAM. IT SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. ITS HELD THIS NOTION FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. WILL BE
INTERESTED TO SEE IF THIS PANS OUT. IT DEVELOPS A VERY WEAK WAVE
WITH TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THIS AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A DRY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH.

USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. THOUGH WE DID TEND
A TAD WARMER DURING THE DAY...AS IT HAS ENDED UP A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL YOU GO WITH...A RIDGE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
ISOLATED AT H5 OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH SOME WEAK
ASSEMBLANCE OF A H5 LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA THAT COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
DAY CONVECTION. BUT THE CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF TIMING
WISE...WITH BEST CHANCE POPS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE NEW 12Z GFS IS NOT TOO
FAR OFF NOW IN TIMING. STILL A BIT FASTER...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH. SO
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. POPS LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER SUPPORT PERSISTS
OVER THE AREA. MODELS VARY ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROF
TUESDAY. ITS CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPARSE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 160227
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1027 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REIGN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AS
AFTERNOON CU HAS DISSIPATED AND ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE MIDDLE
50S IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER SHELTERED VALLEYS. GIVEN THE
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT
SOME FEW LOCATIONS TO SEE UPPER 40S...WITH FOG A BIT MORE CONFINED TO
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. RIDGES ARE ALSO
STAYING A BIT MILDER TONIGHT...SO WILL INCLUDE A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT.
ACCORDINGLY...RECONFIGURED THE DIURNAL COOL DOWN TO BETTER MATCH THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN DISSIPATING A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST...SO
MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS WELL AS THE
REST OF THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS. WILL REASSESS THE LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT LATER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENDED UP PUTTING SOME PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF WAS ALSO SHOWING THE FRONT PRODUCING
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL BE FALLING
APART AS IT ENTERS THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT MAY NOT HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE AREA
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS IS LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO BREAK UP TODAY...HOWEVER SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS STRATUS THAT BUILT DOWN AND SO
SOME OF THE HEAVIEST FOG WAS AT UPPER AND MID ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START
TO BREAK APART. THIS IS A HARD CALL WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WILL WAIN
UNTIL THE NEW ECMWF TO COME OUT BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. RIGHT
NOW...LEANING ON NO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES...RAISED THEM A BIT FOR TONIGHT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...KEPT THEM CLOSE TO
THE MODEL BLEND VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AS SUCH WILL
FOLLOW A GENERIC BLEND OF THE 15/12Z SUITE FOR THE DETAILS. WE BEGIN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. SIGNS POINT
TOWARDS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN U.S BY
FRIDAY AS A BLOCKING HIGH SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL WX RELATIVELY QUIET...IF NOT DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE CAVEAT
HERE IS THAT AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON POP UP
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
OF AN OUTLIER WITH ITS DEPICTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FCST
SOUNDINGS ATTM INDICATE A CAP...ALBEIT A RELATIVELY WEAK ONE AROUND
THE 8-10 KFT LAYER AND THIS SHOULD CURB ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.
WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FCST IN TACT BUT WILL INCH POPS UP FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DIURNAL FLAVOR WHILE KEEPING ANY MENTION
OF RAIN OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

BY SUNDAY MODELS HAVE THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST
COAST...BUT STILL MAINTAINING AN INFLUENCE LOCALLY. UPSTREAM...A
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING THE U.S. AND CANADIAN PLAINS
LOOKS TO USHER A SFC LOW FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY TO AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TAIL OF
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BEGIN APPROACHING ERN KY
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE EAST
OF THE AREA AND A RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON POP UP ON MONDAY AT THIS POINT AND WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH BETTER CHANCES
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO RESIDE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FCST WINDOW AND
AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO USE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...DID NOT
SEE A NEED TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED MODEL BLEND.
THIS RESULTED IN MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED NUMBERS...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND...AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LIFR OR VLIFR FOG BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z IN THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS...WHILE A WINDOW OF IFR FOG LOOKS MORE LIKELY IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE ISOLATED...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KPAH 160035
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
735 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

INTERESTING TEMP AND DEW POINT OUTCOME THIS AFTERNOON. SOME KIND
OF MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER WEST KENTUCKY...AND NEAR THAT
DISCONTINUITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...MAINLY FROM
AROUND THE LAKES AREA EASTWARD. OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...GOOD
MIXING FROM 6-8K/FT HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN MANY AREAS. TEMPS JUMPED IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE AS WELL.

WILL LINGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN WEST KENTUCKY NEAR EXISTING
RETURNS ON RADAR THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT.

MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS
FRONT. BUT WITH SOME FRONTAL FORCING...AND WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
FORECAST...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION. KIND OF FAVOR THE
CONSISTENT NAM. IT SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. ITS HELD THIS NOTION FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. WILL BE
INTERESTED TO SEE IF THIS PANS OUT. IT DEVELOPS A VERY WEAK WAVE
WITH TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THIS AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A DRY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH.

USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. THOUGH WE DID TEND
A TAD WARMER DURING THE DAY...AS IT HAS ENDED UP A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL YOU GO WITH...A RIDGE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
ISOLATED AT H5 OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH SOME WEAK
ASSEMBLANCE OF A H5 LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA THAT COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
DAY CONVECTION. BUT THE CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF TIMING
WISE...WITH BEST CHANCE POPS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE NEW 12Z GFS IS NOT TOO
FAR OFF NOW IN TIMING. STILL A BIT FASTER...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH. SO
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. POPS LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER SUPPORT PERSISTS
OVER THE AREA. MODELS VARY ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROF
TUESDAY. ITS CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPARSE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 152343
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
743 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN DISSIPATING A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST...SO
MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS WELL AS THE
REST OF THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS. WILL REASSESS THE LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT LATER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENDED UP PUTTING SOME PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF WAS ALSO SHOWING THE FRONT PRODUCING
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL BE FALLING
APART AS IT ENTERS THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT MAY NOT HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE AREA
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS IS LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO BREAK UP TODAY...HOWEVER SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS STRATUS THAT BUILT DOWN AND SO
SOME OF THE HEAVIEST FOG WAS AT UPPER AND MID ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START
TO BREAK APART. THIS IS A HARD CALL WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WILL WAIN
UNTIL THE NEW ECMWF TO COME OUT BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. RIGHT
NOW...LEANING ON NO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES...RAISED THEM A BIT FOR TONIGHT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...KEPT THEM CLOSE TO
THE MODEL BLEND VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AS SUCH WILL
FOLLOW A GENERIC BLEND OF THE 15/12Z SUITE FOR THE DETAILS. WE BEGIN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. SIGNS POINT
TOWARDS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN U.S BY
FRIDAY AS A BLOCKING HIGH SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL WX RELATIVELY QUIET...IF NOT DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE CAVEAT
HERE IS THAT AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON POP UP
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
OF AN OUTLIER WITH ITS DEPICTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FCST
SOUNDINGS ATTM INDICATE A CAP...ALBEIT A RELATIVELY WEAK ONE AROUND
THE 8-10 KFT LAYER AND THIS SHOULD CURB ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.
WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FCST IN TACT BUT WILL INCH POPS UP FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DIURNAL FLAVOR WHILE KEEPING ANY MENTION
OF RAIN OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

BY SUNDAY MODELS HAVE THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST
COAST...BUT STILL MAINTAINING AN INFLUENCE LOCALLY. UPSTREAM...A
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING THE U.S. AND CANADIAN PLAINS
LOOKS TO USHER A SFC LOW FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY TO AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TAIL OF
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BEGIN APPROACHING ERN KY
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE EAST
OF THE AREA AND A RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON POP UP ON MONDAY AT THIS POINT AND WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH BETTER CHANCES
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO RESIDE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FCST WINDOW AND
AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO USE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...DID NOT
SEE A NEED TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED MODEL BLEND.
THIS RESULTED IN MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED NUMBERS...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND...AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LIFR OR VLIFR FOG BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z IN THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS...WHILE A WINDOW OF IFR FOG LOOKS MORE LIKELY IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE ISOLATED...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KLMK 152317
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
717 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 444 PM EDT May 15 2012

Apparently the cumulus field did get congested enough to generate
some showers. Afternoon satellite imagery shows a distinct line,
with area observations showing distinct drying behind that line.
KDAY went from a 51 dewpoint ahead of the line at 16Z to 35 behind
it at 18Z. Have extrapolated the line southeastward with isolated
showers now ni the grids. Think as the sun sets the coverage will
decrease quickly.  Only other change was for temperatures in the
area where the showers do form...dropping them some. Would not
expect any of these showers to pop into a thunderstorm, as latest
AMDAR sounding from KSDF at the top of the hour indicated a fairly
sharp inversion at 11-12 kft. Do see with latest radar update one
cell in Bullitt county getting up to 30 kft, but think this will be
very isolated. Updated products already out.

.Short Term (Today through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 340 PM EDT May 15 2012

High pressure continues to dominate the Ohio Valley, however, a CU
field has been developing over much of southern Indiana and central
Kentucky this afternoon. Rain chances look to remain next to null
through this evening, although one radar return did show up over
Louisville. PoP chances will need to be monitored through the rest
of this evening, but confidence remains that anything that does
develop will be sparse and short-lived. There are no PoPs in the
grids for tonight as cloud cover will thin out after sunset and
allow for fog to develop once again, generally sticking to just
rivers and other highly-prone fog areas. An approaching weakening
frontal boundary currently located over Wisconsin, stretching
southwest into northwestern Kansas will allow for the slight chance
of thunderstorms to pop up on Wednesday afternoon. There won`t be a
whole lot for storms to work with so any development tomorrow
afternoon will be diurnal in nature at best. Otherwise, a generally
continued benign weather pattern will persist for this period.

Winds will remain light during the days today and tomorrow and will
be calm overnight. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will
be near normal, with temps in the mid to upper 50s. Wednesday highs
will linger near the 80 degree mark.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT May 15 2012

Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday, behind
the departing surface front. With surface high pressure and ridging
aloft, expect dry conditions Thursday through most, if not all, of
the weekend. Currently think any shower and thunderstorm chance will
be confined to the higher terrain south and east of the forecast
area. However, there could be an isolated thunderstorm Saturday or
Sunday afternoon across the southeast. Given the latest data, it is
too low confidence to carry PoPs either day. The surface high will
shift slowly east, with winds becoming southerly by Saturday. Max
temperatures Thursday will range from the mid 70s to low 80s under
mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will continue to warm into the
weekend, with generally low and mid 80s expected Saturday and
Sunday. Overnight lows will slowly warm as well. Anticipate lows in
the low and mid 50s Friday morning, with lower 60s likely by Sunday
morning.

By the beginning of the new work week, the ridge aloft will be
shifted to our east with a surface frontal boundary approaching our
northwest forecast area Monday. The latest GFS now agrees with the
ECMWF and NAEFS data depicting a slightly slower solution, with
higher rain and thunderstorm chances being Monday night and
especially Tuesday. Will transition higher PoPs into the Monday
night and Tuesday time periods. So, isolated thunderstorms will be
possible Monday, with a better chance of scattered thunderstorms for
Tuesday. Temperatures will cool a bit with clouds and precip around.
Highs Monday and Tuesday appear to top out in the upper 70s and low
80s. Overnight lows will show a similar trend, with upper 50s to
right around 60 degrees expected by Tuesday morning.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 715 PM EDT May 15 2012

Seeing cumulus field start to dissipate with loss of heating this
evening. These clouds were not providing any restrictions to
aviation interests, and expect VFR conditions to continue for most
of the night. Only exception may be towards daybreak with some fog
over KBWG and KLEX. Have a little less confidence in this occurring
than with the previous night, as most of today was dry and sunny.
Thus have delayed onset of MVFR conditions at those two sites. Will
watch trends through the night to see if we can make these a tempo
group or take them out altogether. A front will move into the region
Wednesday afternoon. Models indicate isolated showers and possible
thunderstorms along this front. Think coverage is too limited to put
in the TAFs this early, so just have scattered VFR cig clouds for
now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........RJS
Short Term.......LG
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........RJS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 152051
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
451 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENDED UP PUTTING SOME PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF WAS ALSO SHOWING THE FRONT PRODUCING
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL BE FALLING
APART AS IT ENTERS THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT MAY NOT HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE AREA
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS IS LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO BREAK UP TODAY...HOWEVER SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS STRATUS THAT BUILT DOWN AND SO
SOME OF THE HEAVIEST FOG WAS AT UPPER AND MID ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START
TO BREAK APART. THIS IS A HARD CALL WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WILL WAIN
UNTIL THE NEW ECMWF TO COME OUT BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. RIGHT
NOW...LEANING ON NO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES...RAISED THEM A BIT FOR TONIGHT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...KEPT THEM CLOSE TO
THE MODEL BLEND VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AS SUCH WILL
FOLLOW A GENERIC BLEND OF THE 15/12Z SUITE FOR THE DETAILS. WE BEGIN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. SIGNS POINT
TOWARDS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN U.S BY
FRIDAY AS A BLOCKING HIGH SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL WX RELATIVELY QUIET...IF NOT DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE CAVEAT
HERE IS THAT AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON POP UP
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
OF AN OUTLIER WITH ITS DEPICTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FCST
SOUNDINGS ATTM INDICATE A CAP...ALBEIT A RELATIVELY WEAK ONE AROUND
THE 8-10 KFT LAYER AND THIS SHOULD CURB ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.
WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FCST IN TACT BUT WILL INCH POPS UP FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DIURNAL FLAVOR WHILE KEEPING ANY MENTION
OF RAIN OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

BY SUNDAY MODELS HAVE THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST
COAST...BUT STILL MAINTAINING AN INFLUENCE LOCALLY. UPSTREAM...A
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING THE U.S. AND CANADIAN PLAINS
LOOKS TO USHER A SFC LOW FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY TO AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TAIL OF
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BEGIN APPROACHING ERN KY
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE EAST
OF THE AREA AND A RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON POP UP ON MONDAY AT THIS POINT AND WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH BETTER CHANCES
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO RESIDE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FCST WINDOW AND
AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO USE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...DID NOT
SEE A NEED TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED MODEL BLEND.
THIS RESULTED IN MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED NUMBERS...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND...AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD BE BREAKING UP AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT. LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS STRATUS THAT BUILT DOWN AND
SO SOME OF THE HEAVIEST FOG WAS AT UPPER AND MID ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE HEAVIER FOG AT SME AND LOZ.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KLMK 152045
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
444 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 444 PM EDT May 15 2012

Apparently the cumulus field did get congested enough to generate
some showers. Afternoon satellite imagery shows a distinct line,
with area observations showing distinct drying behind that line.
KDAY went from a 51 dewpoint ahead of the line at 16Z to 35 behind
it at 18Z. Have extrapolated the line southeastward with isolated
showers now ni the grids. Think as the sun sets the coverage will
decrease quickly.  Only other change was for temperatures in the
area where the showers do form...dropping them some. Would not
expect any of these showers to pop into a thunderstorm, as latest
AMDAR sounding from KSDF at the top of the hour indicated a fairly
sharp inversion at 11-12 kft. Do see with latest radar update one
cell in Bullitt county getting up to 30 kft, but think this will be
very isolated. Updated products already out.

.Short Term (Today through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 340 PM EDT May 15 2012

High pressure continues to dominate the Ohio Valley, however, a CU
field has been developing over much of southern Indiana and central
Kentucky this afternoon. Rain chances look to remain next to null
through this evening, although one radar return did show up over
Louisville. PoP chances will need to be monitored through the rest
of this evening, but confidence remains that anything that does
develop will be sparse and short-lived. There are no PoPs in the
grids for tonight as cloud cover will thin out after sunset and
allow for fog to develop once again, generally sticking to just
rivers and other highly-prone fog areas. An approaching weakening
frontal boundary currently located over Wisconsin, stretching
southwest into northwestern Kansas will allow for the slight chance
of thunderstorms to pop up on Wednesday afternoon. There won`t be a
whole lot for storms to work with so any development tomorrow
afternoon will be diurnal in nature at best. Otherwise, a generally
continued benign weather pattern will persist for this period.

Winds will remain light during the days today and tomorrow and will
be calm overnight. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will
be near normal, with temps in the mid to upper 50s. Wednesday highs
will linger near the 80 degree mark.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT May 15 2012

Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday, behind
the departing surface front. With surface high pressure and ridging
aloft, expect dry conditions Thursday through most, if not all, of
the weekend. Currently think any shower and thunderstorm chance will
be confined to the higher terrain south and east of the forecast
area. However, there could be an isolated thunderstorm Saturday or
Sunday afternoon across the southeast. Given the latest data, it is
too low confidence to carry PoPs either day. The surface high will
shift slowly east, with winds becoming southerly by Saturday. Max
temperatures Thursday will range from the mid 70s to low 80s under
mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will continue to warm into the
weekend, with generally low and mid 80s expected Saturday and
Sunday. Overnight lows will slowly warm as well. Anticipate lows in
the low and mid 50s Friday morning, with lower 60s likely by Sunday
morning.

By the beginning of the new work week, the ridge aloft will be
shifted to our east with a surface frontal boundary approaching our
northwest forecast area Monday. The latest GFS now agrees with the
ECMWF and NAEFS data depicting a slightly slower solution, with
higher rain and thunderstorm chances being Monday night and
especially Tuesday. Will transition higher PoPs into the Monday
night and Tuesday time periods. So, isolated thunderstorms will be
possible Monday, with a better chance of scattered thunderstorms for
Tuesday. Temperatures will cool a bit with clouds and precip around.
Highs Monday and Tuesday appear to top out in the upper 70s and low
80s. Overnight lows will show a similar trend, with upper 50s to
right around 60 degrees expected by Tuesday morning.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT May 15 2012

High pressure overhead will bring partly cloudy skies and light
winds through the TAF period. VFR conditions look to prevail for
area terminals with the exception of possible fog development
occurring again during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday.

A CU field with low-level winds out of the northwest has been
developing across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. An area of
higher level clouds have been moving off toward the northeast across
parts of eastern and southern Kentucky. This trend will likely
continue through the rest of the afternoon with minimal impacts to
aviation interests.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........RJS
Short Term.......LG
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........LG

000
FXUS63 KPAH 152006
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
306 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

INTERESTING TEMP AND DEW POINT OUTCOME THIS AFTERNOON. SOME KIND
OF MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER WEST KENTUCKY...AND NEAR THAT
DISCONTINUITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...MAINLY FROM
AROUND THE LAKES AREA EASTWARD. OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...GOOD
MIXING FROM 6-8K/FT HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN MANY AREAS. TEMPS JUMPED IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE AS WELL.

WILL LINGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN WEST KENTUCKY NEAR EXISTING
RETURNS ON RADAR THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT.

MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS
FRONT. BUT WITH SOME FRONTAL FORCING...AND WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
FORECAST...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION. KIND OF FAVOR THE
CONSISTENT NAM. IT SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. ITS HELD THIS NOTION FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. WILL BE
INTERESTED TO SEE IF THIS PANS OUT. IT DEVELOPS A VERY WEAK WAVE
WITH TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THIS AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A DRY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH.

USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. THOUGH WE DID TEND
A TAD WARMER DURING THE DAY...AS IT HAS ENDED UP A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL YOU GO WITH...A RIDGE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
ISOLATED AT H5 OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH SOME WEAK
ASSEMBLANCE OF A H5 LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA THAT COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
DAY CONVECTION. BUT THE CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF TIMING
WISE...WITH BEST CHANCE POPS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE NEW 12Z GFS IS NOT TOO
FAR OFF NOW IN TIMING. STILL A BIT FASTER...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH. SO
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. POPS LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER SUPPORT PERSISTS
OVER THE AREA. MODELS VARY ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROF
TUESDAY. ITS CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CU REST OF TODAY...AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THAT MAY VARY AT TIMES. NEAR CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLMK 151951
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
351 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.Short Term (Today through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 340 PM EDT May 15 2012

High pressure continues to dominate the Ohio Valley, however, a CU
field has been developing over much of southern Indiana and central
Kentucky this afternoon. Rain chances look to remain next to null
through this evening, although one radar return did show up over
Louisville. PoP chances will need to be monitored through the rest
of this evening, but confidence remains that anything that does
develop will be sparse and short-lived. There are no PoPs in the
grids for tonight as cloud cover will thin out after sunset and
allow for fog to develop once again, generally sticking to just
rivers and other highly-prone fog areas. An approaching weakening
frontal boundary currently located over Wisconsin, stretching
southwest into northwestern Kansas will allow for the slight chance
of thunderstorms to pop up on Wednesday afternoon. There won`t be a
whole lot for storms to work with so any development tomorrow
afternoon will be diurnal in nature at best. Otherwise, a generally
continued benign weather pattern will persist for this period.

Winds will remain light during the days today and tomorrow and will
be calm overnight. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will
be near normal, with temps in the mid to upper 50s. Wednesday highs
will linger near the 80 degree mark.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT May 15 2012

Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday, behind
the departing surface front. With surface high pressure and ridging
aloft, expect dry conditions Thursday through most, if not all, of
the weekend. Currently think any shower and thunderstorm chance will
be confined to the higher terrain south and east of the forecast
area. However, there could be an isolated thunderstorm Saturday or
Sunday afternoon across the southeast. Given the latest data, it is
too low confidence to carry PoPs either day. The surface high will
shift slowly east, with winds becoming southerly by Saturday. Max
temperatures Thursday will range from the mid 70s to low 80s under
mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will continue to warm into the
weekend, with generally low and mid 80s expected Saturday and
Sunday. Overnight lows will slowly warm as well. Anticipate lows in
the low and mid 50s Friday morning, with lower 60s likely by Sunday
morning.

By the beginning of the new work week, the ridge aloft will be
shifted to our east with a surface frontal boundary approaching our
northwest forecast area Monday. The latest GFS now agrees with the
ECMWF and NAEFS data depicting a slightly slower solution, with
higher rain and thunderstorm chances being Monday night and
especially Tuesday. Will transition higher PoPs into the Monday
night and Tuesday time periods. So, isolated thunderstorms will be
possible Monday, with a better chance of scattered thunderstorms for
Tuesday. Temperatures will cool a bit with clouds and precip around.
Highs Monday and Tuesday appear to top out in the upper 70s and low
80s. Overnight lows will show a similar trend, with upper 50s to
right around 60 degrees expected by Tuesday morning.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT May 15 2012

High pressure overhead will bring partly cloudy skies and light
winds through the TAF period. VFR conditions look to prevail for
area terminals with the exception of possible fog development
occurring again during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday.

A CU field with low-level winds out of the northwest has been
developing across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. An area of
higher level clouds have been moving off toward the northeast across
parts of eastern and southern Kentucky. This trend will likely
continue through the rest of the afternoon with minimal impacts to
aviation interests.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......lg
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........lg

000
FXUS63 KJKL 151800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO BREAK UP TODAY...HOWEVER SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS STRATUS THAT BUILT DOWN AND SO
SOME OF THE HEAVIEST FOG WAS AT UPPER AND MID ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START
TO BREAK APART. THIS IS A HARD CALL WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WILL WAIN
UNTIL THE NEW ECMWF TO COME OUT BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. RIGHT
NOW...LEANING ON NO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES...RAISED THEM A BIT FOR TONIGHT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...KEPT THEM CLOSE TO
THE MODEL BLEND VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AS SUCH WILL
FOLLOW A GENERIC BLEND OF THE 15/12Z SUITE FOR THE DETAILS. WE BEGIN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. SIGNS POINT
TOWARDS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN U.S BY
FRIDAY AS A BLOCKING HIGH SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL WX RELATIVELY QUIET...IF NOT DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE CAVEAT
HERE IS THAT AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON POP UP
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
OF AN OUTLIER WITH ITS DEPICTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FCST
SOUNDINGS ATTM INDICATE A CAP...ALBEIT A RELATIVELY WEAK ONE AROUND
THE 8-10 KFT LAYER AND THIS SHOULD CURB ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.
WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FCST IN TACT BUT WILL INCH POPS UP FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DIURNAL FLAVOR WHILE KEEPING ANY MENTION
OF RAIN OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

BY SUNDAY MODELS HAVE THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST
COAST...BUT STILL MAINTAINING AN INFLUENCE LOCALLY. UPSTREAM...A
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING THE U.S. AND CANADIAN PLAINS
LOOKS TO USHER A SFC LOW FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY TO AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TAIL OF
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BEGIN APPROACHING ERN KY
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE EAST
OF THE AREA AND A RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON POP UP ON MONDAY AT THIS POINT AND WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH BETTER CHANCES
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO RESIDE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FCST WINDOW AND
AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO USE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...DID NOT
SEE A NEED TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED MODEL BLEND.
THIS RESULTED IN MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED NUMBERS...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND...AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID MAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD BE BREAKING UP AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT. LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS STRATUS THAT BUILT DOWN AND
SO SOME OF THE HEAVIEST FOG WAS AT UPPER AND MID ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE HEAVIER FOG AT SME AND LOZ.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KLMK 151719
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
118 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 100 PM EDT May 15 2012

Not much change has been made to the grids for this update as the
entire forecast looks to remain on par. High pressure continues to
dominate today`s benign weather. Fair weather CU has been popping up
in southern Indiana and into central Kentucky under northwest flow
with some higher clouds traversing toward the northeast over parts
of eastern and southern Kentucky. Even though the overall sky grids
looked okay, updated them to reflect this current trend. Will
continue to monitor temps to ensure cloud cover (or lack thereof)
doesn`t cause issues to the current forecast and trend.

.Short Term (Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT May 15 2012

Currently, the upper air pattern shows a cutoff low over Nevada
trapped under strong ridging across the northern Rockies. A weak
positively tilted trough over the Lower Ohio Valley will remain,
anchored by a southern stream 500mb circulation sliding east over
southern
Texas and a progressive amplifying trough expected to scoot across
the Great Lakes Wednesday.

With recent rains, fog will be an issue early this morning,
especially across open fields and river valleys. Expect some locally
dense fog across the Kentucky River valley and the Lake Cumberland
Region. Perhaps mitigating more widespread fog are 15kt southwest
winds just above the boundary layer overnight, coupled with the
approach of a weak trough now apparent over Indiana on water vapor
satellite.

Expect mostly clear skies today with just a few afternoon cu
developing. Do not expect any isolated afternoon thunderstorms today
despite the passage of a weak trough from north to south across the
state. Drier air will advect in from the north, even ahead of this
trough. With marginal instability and a lack of convergence along
this boundary, do not expect any convective development. High
temperatures this afternoon will approach 80.

Mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to some patchy fog
development early Wednesday. Expect lows a few degrees cooler that
Tuesday`s, with temperatures bottoming out in the lower to mid 50s.

Canadian high pressure will build across Wisconsin early Wednesday
in the wake of the Great Lakes trough passage mentioned above.
Slightly cooler and distinctly drier air will move south across
southern Indiana by late Wednesday afternoon as the frontal boundary
is forecast to move south of Interstate 64 by early evening.
Forecast soundings show that despite a dry airmass, weak instability
develops Wednesday afternoon right ahead of this boundary. Will
insert a slight chance of some afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms that will likely quickly dissipate by mid-evening with
the loss of daytime heating. Highs Wednesday will vary from the mid
to upper 70s north to the lower 80s south.

.Long Term (Wednesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT May 15 2012

The trough behind the surface front will push across the northeast
CONUS, dropping the surface front across our southern CWA. Left a
few hours of slight chance POPs in across south-central KY Wednesday
night, ending by midnight. The upper trough will skirt off to the
east as ridging over the Plains works eastward and keeps us dry for
a few days.

By Friday, a strong ridge will be overhead as troughiness takes over
the western CONUS. Although some models depict QPF on Saturday, the
ridge is directly overhead and stronger than Friday, so really doubt
this would happen. By Sunday though, upper and surface highs should
be centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a good southerly flow
in place. The troughing over the western CONUS will bring a low
pressure system and its cold front towards the area late Sunday.
Inserted isolated showers/storms for Sunday (mainly thinking
afternoon-evening) over the western CWA, west of I-65 generally,
keeping Sunday night dry thinking any precip will be
diurnally-driven. By the end of the extended forecast period, the
ridge will be well to our east with the frontal boundary on our
doorstep. Would think scattered showers/storms will develop without
a cap around, so have precip chances increasing from west to east
Monday and Monday night. The newest Euro is a bit slower than its
12z run, and slower than the latest GFS, so only went with slight to
low chance POPs Monday for now. By Monday night, chances should be
higher as both models indicate the surface boundary overhead. Have
high chance POPs for that time frame for now.

Concerning temps, Thursday will be the "coolest" day with
temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to the very low 80s. With
the ridge overhead Fri-Sun, temps will climb into the lower and
middle 80s. Trimmed back temps a few degrees on Monday though
thinking more cloud cover and precip may help keep temps down.
Overnight, lows will generally be in the 50s until the weekend, when
low 60s will be common most places.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT May 15 2012

High pressure overhead will bring partly cloudy skies and light
winds through the TAF period. VFR conditions look to prevail for
area terminals with the exception of possible fog development
occurring again during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday.

A CU field with low-level winds out of the northwest has been
developing across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. An area of
higher level clouds have been moving off toward the northeast across
parts of eastern and southern Kentucky. This trend will likely
continue through the rest of the afternoon with minimal impacts to
aviation interests.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........lg
Short Term.......JSD
Long Term........AL
Aviation.........lg

000
FXUS63 KPAH 151634
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1134 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION.

REGARDING THE PUBLIC GRIDS...TEMPS HAVE SOARED UPWARD MUCH FASTER
THAN FORECAST...AND POCKETS OF VERY DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
DEW POINTS DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY IN SOME AREAS. SIGNIFICANT
REVISIONS TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS A RESULT. RAISED MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE BOARD. THERE SEEMS TO BE A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.
VERY HARD TO TELL GIVEN LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINT 41 AT KPAH WHILE 57
AT MURRAY...STILL MID 50S OVER SW INDIANA. CU STARTING TO ENHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT LOSES ITS DEFINITION (FRONTOLYSIS) WITH TIME AND
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO ONLY SCHC POPS WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SO KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES/EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY
AND WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARM UP...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AND THE GFS
HINTS AT SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONGSIDE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID/UPPER FLOW. THE ECMWF IS DRIER AND KEEPS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA AND SHUNTS ANY
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS MOISTURE AND WARMTH COMBINE TO CREATE A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY NO CAP TO DEAL WITH.

MODELS KEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT...MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNC WITH
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
AREA...AND WOULD INDICATE THAT WE WOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SHOWS US PRECIP FREE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...AS HAS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SINCE MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLES ARE HOLDING OFF ON PRECIP
UNTIL MONDAY...WILL LEAVE SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW. THE GFS ENSEMBLES GET
PRETTY NOISY BEYOND THAT...BUT WILL SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME TIMING CHANGES BEFORE ALL IS SAID
AND DONE THOUGH OF COURSE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CU TODAY...AND LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THAT MAY VARY AT TIMES. NEAR CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 151602
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1202 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITONS AND MODEL TRENDS.
HAD TO LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE DUE TO THE LINGERING SKY
COVER. ALSO MOVED THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ABOUT 10
MILES FURTHER SOUTH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO GET THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS UNDER CONTROL AS
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN SOME PLACES ALLOWING
THE SURFACE TEMPS TO DROP...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE...THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AS OF 0515Z...THE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DROPPED BELOW 1
MILE...EVEN THE EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE DROPPED WHERE EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT...SOME LOW STRATUS HAS LINGERED. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO. THEREFORE...DID A QUICK FRESHEN UP OF THE GRIDS
AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TILL 10 AM. NPW AND ZFP HAVE BEEN
ISSUED AND THE NEW FRESHENED UP GRIDS HAVE BEEN SHIPPED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 08Z HAS SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME STRATUS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER...VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED BELOW A MILE AND EVEN WHERE
SOME CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT...SOME OBS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 2 MILES.
NEVER THE LESS...THE LACK OF CLEARING SKIES AND THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG WILL WARRANT AN SPS TILL 14Z AND DECIDED AGAINST A DENSE
FOG.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE EASTERN RANGES AND WHAT LITTLE FORCING LEFT
WILL NEED SOME OROGRPAHICS AND SOME DAY TIME HEATING BUT WILL STILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT LIVED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING A NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER FOG EVENT TONIGHT.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
DIVING SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL PROFILES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY BUT WITH A LACKING IN MOISTURE.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS FAVORABLE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SO WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST. THE BEST FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
TIME FRAME. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR
NORTHEAST SHOULD THEN BRING A DRIER AIR MASS FOR OUR AREA FOR A DAY
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP
HIGHER BY THE WEEKEND...BUT A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
A LID ON DEEP CONVECTION YET. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD THEN START TO
BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD LEAD TO GREATER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...AND ALSO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WEATHER FEATURES WOULD BE WEAK...BUT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...HAVE ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z
MEXMOS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE TO NEAR
ZERO. THE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 14Z THIS MORNING WITH A MVFR
CEILINGS LASTING TILL 16Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS EXPECTED NOT
TO LAST LONG SO WILL KEEP FROM MENTION THE TAF SITES. WITH THE
EXITING SYSTEM...SKIES ARE EXPECTING TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT WITH DENSE
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GET NEAR
ZERO AGAIN BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS EXTENSIVE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

000
FXUS63 KPAH 151123 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT LOSES ITS DEFINITION (FRONTOLYSIS) WITH TIME AND
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO ONLY SCHC POPS WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SO KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES/EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY
AND WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARM UP...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AND THE GFS
HINTS AT SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONGSIDE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID/UPPER FLOW. THE ECMWF IS DRIER AND KEEPS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA AND SHUNTS ANY
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS MOISTURE AND WARMTH COMBINE TO CREATE A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY NO CAP TO DEAL WITH.

MODELS KEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT...MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNC WITH
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
AREA...AND WOULD INDICATE THAT WE WOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SHOWS US PRECIP FREE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...AS HAS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SINCE MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLES ARE HOLDING OFF ON PRECIP
UNTIL MONDAY...WILL LEAVE SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW. THE GFS ENSEMBLES GET
PRETTY NOISY BEYOND THAT...BUT WILL SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME TIMING CHANGES BEFORE ALL IS SAID
AND DONE THOUGH OF COURSE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A
FEW CLOUDS TODAY AROUND 6K FT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 MPH WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....CW

000
FXUS63 KJKL 151054
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
654 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO GET THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS UNDER CONTROL AS
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN SOME PLACES ALLOWING
THE SURFACE TEMPS TO DROP...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE...THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AS OF 0515Z...THE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DROPPED BELOW 1
MILE...EVEN THE EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE DROPPED WHERE EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT...SOME LOW STRATUS HAS LINGERED. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO. THEREFORE...DID A QUICK FRESHEN UP OF THE GRIDS
AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TILL 10 AM. NPW AND ZFP HAVE BEEN
ISSUED AND THE NEW FRESHENED UP GRIDS HAVE BEEN SHIPPED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 08Z HAS SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME STRATUS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER...VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED BELOW A MILE AND EVEN WHERE
SOME CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT...SOME OBS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 2 MILES.
NEVER THE LESS...THE LACK OF CLEARING SKIES AND THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG WILL WARRANT AN SPS TILL 14Z AND DECIDED AGAINST A DENSE
FOG.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE EASTERN RANGES AND WHAT LITTLE FORCING LEFT
WILL NEED SOME OROGRPAHICS AND SOME DAY TIME HEATING BUT WILL STILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT LIVED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING A NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER FOG EVENT TONIGHT.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
DIVING SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL PROFILES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY BUT WITH A LACKING IN MOISTURE.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS FAVORABLE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SO WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST. THE BEST FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
TIME FRAME. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR
NORTHEAST SHOULD THEN BRING A DRIER AIR MASS FOR OUR AREA FOR A DAY
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP
HIGHER BY THE WEEKEND...BUT A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
A LID ON DEEP CONVECTION YET. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD THEN START TO
BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD LEAD TO GREATER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...AND ALSO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WEATHER FEATURES WOULD BE WEAK...BUT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...HAVE ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z
MEXMOS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE TO NEAR
ZERO. THE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 14Z THIS MORNING WITH A MVFR
CEILINGS LASTING TILL 16Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS EXPECTED NOT
TO LAST LONG SO WILL KEEP FROM MENTION THE TAF SITES. WITH THE
EXITING SYSTEM...SKIES ARE EXPECTING TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT WITH DENSE
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GET NEAR
ZERO AGAIN BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS EXTENSIVE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

000
FXUS63 KLMK 151033
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
631 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 630 AM EDT May 15 2012

.Short Term (Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT May 15 2012

Currently, the upper air pattern shows a cutoff low over Nevada
trapped under strong ridging across the northern Rockies. A weak
positively tilted trough over the Lower Ohio Valley will remain,
anchored by a southern stream 500mb circulation sliding east over
southern
Texas and a progressive amplifying trough expected to scoot across
the Great Lakes Wednesday.

With recent rains, fog will be an issue early this morning,
especially across open fields and river valleys. Expect some locally
dense fog across the Kentucky River valley and the Lake Cumberland
Region. Perhaps mitigating more widespread fog are 15kt southwest
winds just above the boundary layer overnight, coupled with the
approach of a weak trough now apparent over Indiana on water vapor
satellite.

Expect mostly clear skies today with just a few afternoon cu
developing. Do not expect any isolated afternoon thunderstorms today
despite the passage of a weak trough from north to south across the
state. Drier air will advect in from the north, even ahead of this
trough. With marginal instability and a lack of convergence along
this boundary, do not expect any convective development. High
temperatures this afternoon will approach 80.

Mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to some patchy fog
development early Wednesday. Expect lows a few degrees cooler that
Tuesday`s, with temperatures bottoming out in the lower to mid 50s.

Canadian high pressure will build across Wisconsin early Wednesday
in the wake of the Great Lakes trough passage mentioned above.
Slightly cooler and distinctly drier air will move south across
southern Indiana by late Wednesday afternoon as the frontal boundary
is forecast to move south of Interstate 64 by early evening.
Forecast soundings show that despite a dry airmass, weak instability
develops Wednesday afternoon right ahead of this boundary. Will
insert a slight chance of some afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms that will likely quickly dissipate by mid-evening with
the loss of daytime heating. Highs Wednesday will vary from the mid
to upper 70s north to the lower 80s south.

.Long Term (Wednesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT May 15 2012

The trough behind the surface front will push across the northeast
CONUS, dropping the surface front across our southern CWA. Left a
few hours of slight chance POPs in across south-central KY Wednesday
night, ending by midnight. The upper trough will skirt off to the
east as ridging over the Plains works eastward and keeps us dry for
a few days.

By Friday, a strong ridge will be overhead as troughiness takes over
the western CONUS. Although some models depict QPF on Saturday, the
ridge is directly overhead and stronger than Friday, so really doubt
this would happen. By Sunday though, upper and surface highs should
be centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a good southerly flow
in place. The troughing over the western CONUS will bring a low
pressure system and its cold front towards the area late Sunday.
Inserted isolated showers/storms for Sunday (mainly thinking
afternoon-evening) over the western CWA, west of I-65 generally,
keeping Sunday night dry thinking any precip will be
diurnally-driven. By the end of the extended forecast period, the
ridge will be well to our east with the frontal boundary on our
doorstep. Would think scattered showers/storms will develop without
a cap around, so have precip chances increasing from west to east
Monday and Monday night. The newest Euro is a bit slower than its
12z run, and slower than the latest GFS, so only went with slight to
low chance POPs Monday for now. By Monday night, chances should be
higher as both models indicate the surface boundary overhead. Have
high chance POPs for that time frame for now.

Concerning temps, Thursday will be the "coolest" day with
temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to the very low 80s. With
the ridge overhead Fri-Sun, temps will climb into the lower and
middle 80s. Trimmed back temps a few degrees on Monday though
thinking more cloud cover and precip may help keep temps down.
Overnight, lows will generally be in the 50s until the weekend, when
low 60s will be common most places.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 630 AM EDT May 15 2012

High pressure overhead will bring mostly sunny skies and light winds
through the TAF period. Patchy dense fog will bring low end MVFR and
occasional IFR visibilities to LEX and BWG through 13z. Visibilities
will rapidly rise to VFR probably by 1330z. SDF visibilities will
remain near or above 4km early this morning.

Calm winds this morning will become northerly at around 5kt by early
afternoon, diminishing to calm by 01z Wednesday.

Clear skies will continue tonight with some light patchy fog
developing once again during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......JSD
Long Term........AL
Aviation.........JSD

000
FXUS63 KJKL 150930
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
530 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AS OF 0515Z...THE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DROPPED BELOW 1
MILE...EVEN THE EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE DROPPED WHERE EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT...SOME LOW STRATUS HAS LINGERED. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO. THEREFORE...DID A QUICK FRESHEN UP OF THE GRIDS
AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TILL 10 AM. NPW AND ZFP HAVE BEEN
ISSUED AND THE NEW FRESHENED UP GRIDS HAVE BEEN SHIPPED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 08Z HAS SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME STRATUS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER...VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED BELOW A MILE AND EVEN WHERE
SOME CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT...SOME OBS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 2 MILES.
NEVER THE LESS...THE LACK OF CLEARING SKIES AND THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG WILL WARRANT AN SPS TILL 14Z AND DECIDED AGAINST A DENSE
FOG.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE EASTERN RANGES AND WHAT LITTLE FORCING LEFT
WILL NEED SOME OROGRPAHICS AND SOME DAY TIME HEATING BUT WILL STILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT LIVED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING A NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER FOG EVENT TONIGHT.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
DIVING SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL PROFILES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY BUT WITH A LACKING IN MOISTURE.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS FAVORABLE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SO WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST. THE BEST FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
TIME FRAME. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR
NORTHEAST SHOULD THEN BRING A DRIER AIR MASS FOR OUR AREA FOR A DAY
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP
HIGHER BY THE WEEKEND...BUT A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
A LID ON DEEP CONVECTION YET. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD THEN START TO
BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD LEAD TO GREATER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...AND ALSO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WEATHER FEATURES WOULD BE WEAK...BUT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...HAVE ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z
MEXMOS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE
STRATUS BE AND HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL PERSIST. AS OF 0530Z...THE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN
COUNTIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WHERE SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND
JKL...LOZ...SME HAVE GONE BELOW IFR. WILL GO WITH A AIRFIELD MINS
FORECAST AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. AFTERWARD THE FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 16Z AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A MORE
PERSISTENT LOW LAYER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. BY 18Z...IN MOST
INSTANCES...A 5 KFT CU LAYER SHOULD BE PRESENT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

000
FXUS63 KJKL 150837
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
437 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 08Z HAS SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME STRATUS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER...VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED BELOW A MILE AND EVEN WHERE
SOME CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT...SOME OBS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 2 MILES.
NEVER THE LESS...THE LACK OF CLEARING SKIES AND THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG WILL WARRANT AN SPS TILL 14Z AND DECIDED AGAINST A DENSE
FOG.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE EASTERN RANGES AND WHAT LITTLE FORCING LEFT
WILL NEED SOME OROGRPAHICS AND SOME DAY TIME HEATING BUT WILL STILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT LIVED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING A NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER FOG EVENT TONIGHT.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
DIVING SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL PROFILES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY BUT WITH A LACKING IN MOISTURE.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS FAVORABLE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SO WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST. THE BEST FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
TIME FRAME. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR
NORTHEAST SHOULD THEN BRING A DRIER AIR MASS FOR OUR AREA FOR A DAY
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP
HIGHER BY THE WEEKEND...BUT A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
A LID ON DEEP CONVECTION YET. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD THEN START TO
BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD LEAD TO GREATER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...AND ALSO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WEATHER FEATURES WOULD BE WEAK...BUT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...HAVE ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z
MEXMOS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE
STRATUS BE AND HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL PERSIST. AS OF 0530Z...THE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN
COUNTIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WHERE SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND
JKL...LOZ...SME HAVE GONE BELOW IFR. WILL GO WITH A AIRFIELD MINS
FORECAST AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. AFTERWARD THE FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 16Z AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A MORE
PERSISTENT LOW LAYER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. BY 18Z...IN MOST
INSTANCES...A 5 KFT CU LAYER SHOULD BE PRESENT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

000
FXUS63 KJKL 150829
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
429 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 08Z HAS SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME STRATUS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER...VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED BELOW A MILE AND EVEN WHERE
SOME CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT...SOME OBS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 2 MILES.
NEVER THE LESS...THE LACK OF CLEARING SKIES AND THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG WILL WARRANT AN SPS TILL 14Z AND DECIDED AGAINST A DENSE
FOG.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE EASTERN RANGES AND WHAT LITTLE FORCING LEFT
WILL NEED SOME OROGRPAHICS AND SOME DAY TIME HEATING BUT WILL STILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT LIVED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING A NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER FOG EVENT TONIGHT.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
DIVING SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL PROFILES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY BUT WITH A LACKING IN MOISTURE.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS FAVORABLE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SO WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST. THE BEST FORCING STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS
START OFF WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST COAST WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY
BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RIGHT IN
THE PATH OF ANY SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF TROUGH. REINTRODUCED SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS MAY JUST END UP WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES...HOWEVER THOUGH
IT WAS WORTHY OF ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO THE FORECAST.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD BLOCK ANY SYSTEMS FROM COMING
INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY MORNING AN UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER KENTUCKY. BY SUNDAY...THING GET A LOT MORE COMPLICATED
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST JUST EAST OF
WILMINGTON. THE RIDGING STARTS TO ERODE SOME AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
QUASI STATIONARY. AT THE SURFACE...THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS IS
FASTER WITH THE FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS. CONFIDENCE THROUGH
SATURDAY IS GOOD...HOWEVER BEGINS TO DEGRADE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE
STRATUS BE AND HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL PERSIST. AS OF 0530Z...THE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN
COUNTIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WHERE SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND
JKL...LOZ...SME HAVE GONE BELOW IFR. WILL GO WITH A AIRFIELD MINS
FORECAST AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. AFTERWARD THE FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 16Z AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A MORE
PERSISTENT LOW LAYER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. BY 18Z...IN MOST
INSTANCES...A 5 KFT CU LAYER SHOULD BE PRESENT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

000
FXUS63 KPAH 150757
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT LOSES ITS DEFINITION (FRONTOLYSIS) WITH TIME AND
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO ONLY SCHC POPS WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SO KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES/EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY
AND WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARM UP...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AND THE GFS
HINTS AT SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONGSIDE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID/UPPER FLOW. THE ECMWF IS DRIER AND KEEPS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA AND SHUNTS ANY
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS MOISTURE AND WARMTH COMBINE TO CREATE A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY NO CAP TO DEAL WITH.

MODELS KEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT...MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNC WITH
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
AREA...AND WOULD INDICATE THAT WE WOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SHOWS US PRECIP FREE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...AS HAS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SINCE MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLES ARE HOLDING OFF ON PRECIP
UNTIL MONDAY...WILL LEAVE SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW. THE GFS ENSEMBLES GET
PRETTY NOISY BEYOND THAT...BUT WILL SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME TIMING CHANGES BEFORE ALL IS SAID
AND DONE THOUGH OF COURSE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL FORECAST
TERMINALS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KPAH AND KOWB WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MORE RELUCTANT TO DROP OFF. AS A RESULT...WE INTRODUCED A TEMPO 5SM
BR AT BOTH SITES FROM 10-13Z. NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
N/NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....CW

000
FXUS63 KLMK 150717
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.Short Term (Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT May 15 2012

Currently, the upper air pattern shows a cutoff low over Nevada
trapped under strong ridging across the northern Rockies. A weak
positively tilted trough over the Lower Ohio Valley will remain,
anchored by a southern stream 500mb circulation sliding east over
southern Texas and a progressive amplifying trough expected to scoot
across the Great Lakes Wednesday.

With recent rains, fog will be an issue early this morning,
especially across open fields and river valleys. Expect some locally
dense fog across the Kentucky River valley and the Lake Cumberland
Region. Perhaps mitigating more widespread fog are 15kt southwest
winds just above the boundary layer overnight, coupled with the
approach of a weak trough now apparent over Indiana on water vapor
satellite.

Expect mostly clear skies today with just a few afternoon cu
developing. Do not expect any isolated afternoon thunderstorms today
despite the passage of a weak trough from north to south across the
state. Drier air will advect in from the north, even ahead of this
trough. With marginal instability and a lack of convergence along
this boundary, do not expect any convective development. High
temperatures this afternoon will approach 80.

Mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to some patchy fog
development early Wednesday. Expect lows a few degrees cooler that
Tuesday`s, with temperatures bottoming out in the lower to mid 50s.

Canadian high pressure will build across Wisconsin early Wednesday
in the wake of the Great Lakes trough passage mentioned above.
Slightly cooler and distinctly drier air will move south across
southern Indiana by late Wednesday afternoon as the frontal boundary
is forecast to move south of Interstate 64 by early evening.
Forecast soundings show that despite a dry airmass, weak instability
develops Wednesday afternoon right ahead of this boundary. Will
insert a slight chance of some afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms that will likely quickly dissipate by mid-evening with
the loss of daytime heating. Highs Wednesday will vary from the mid
to upper 70s north to the lower 80s south.



.Long Term (Wednesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT May 15 2012

The trough behind the surface front will push across the northeast
CONUS, dropping the surface front across our southern CWA. Left a
few hours of slight chance POPs in across south-central KY Wednesday
night, ending by midnight. The upper trough will skirt off to the
east as ridging over the Plains works eastward and keeps us dry for
a few days.

By Friday, a strong ridge will be overhead as troughiness takes over
the western CONUS. Although some models depict QPF on Saturday, the
ridge is directly overhead and stronger than Friday, so really doubt
this would happen. By Sunday though, upper and surface highs should
be centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a good southerly flow
in place. The troughing over the western CONUS will bring a low
pressure system and its cold front towards the area late Sunday.
Inserted isolated showers/storms for Sunday (mainly thinking
afternoon-evening) over the western CWA, west of I-65 generally,
keeping Sunday night dry thinking any precip will be
diurnally-driven. By the end of the extended forecast period, the
ridge will be well to our east with the frontal boundary on our
doorstep. Would think scattered showers/storms will develop without
a cap around, so have precip chances increasing from west to east
Monday and Monday night. The newest Euro is a bit slower than its
12z run, and slower than the latest GFS, so only went with slight to
low chance POPs Monday for now. By Monday night, chances should be
higher as both models indicate the surface boundary overhead. Have
high chance POPs for that time frame for now.

Concerning temps, Thursday will be the "coolest" day with
temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to the very low 80s. With
the ridge overhead Fri-Sun, temps will climb into the lower and
middle 80s. Trimmed back temps a few degrees on Monday though
thinking more cloud cover and precip may help keep temps down.
Overnight, lows will generally be in the 50s until the weekend, when
low 60s will be common most places.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 120 AM EDT May 15 2012

High pressure overhead will bring continued clear skies and light
winds through early Wednesday. Fog will be a concern early this
morning, especially at LEX and BWG.

Standiford`s urban location and corresponding slightly higher
overnight temperatures will likely retard any dense fog formation.
However visibilities at SDF may fall to 2 or 3sm during the pre-dawn
hours. With recent rains, fog may become thicker at LEX and BWG.
MVFR visibilities are likely after 07 to 08z this morning. Temporary
IFR visibilities of less than one mile may develop just before dawn.

Any fog will dissipate towards 12 to 13z. After a clear morning,
expect a few afternoon flat cu with light north winds around 5 mph
this afternoon, becoming once again near calm after 01z Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......JSD
Long Term........AL
Aviation.........JSD

000
FXUS63 KJKL 150545
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

CURRENTLY LOOKING AT THE FOG PRODUCT AS OF 0530Z HAS CONTINUED
STRATUS LOCATED OVER MOSTLY THE EASTERN CWA WHERE THE WESTERN PORTION
HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. SURFACE OBS
SHOW SOME FOG DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE SKY COVER AND AS A RESULT ADJUSTED
THE TEMPERATURES FOR WHERE CLOUD COVER REMAINS AND WHERE IS HAS
CLEARED OUT. WILL ONLY UPDATE THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF PCPN OVERNIGHT AND
ALSO TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER. THE ADDITIONAL CLEARING...AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD HELP THE FOG FORMATION IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS. STILL EXPECT THE STRATUS IN THE EAST TO BUILD BACK
WEST AND LOWER LATER TONIGHT. UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT...ZFP AND HWO WILL FOLLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF
THE AREA...THOUGH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES ARE FOUND IN OUR FAR EAST...AS WELL. A PASSING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF THE CWA...
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY. EXPECT SOME RIDGETOP AND DEEP
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EAST AND SOME HOLES POP UP
IN THE LOWER STRATUS DECK FURTHER WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
FINE TUNE THE POPS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT...ZFP WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
NORTHWARD ALONG THE AXIS OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS LATE THIS EVENING...THE RAIN
THREAT WILL TEMPORARILY END. CLOUD COVER IS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT.
WITH THE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS...THEY WILL LIKELY HOLD THE
STRATUS IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CEILINGS MAY LOWER ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGETOPS TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
PERHAPS SPARKING OFF A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. MOISTURE WILL BE
A BIT MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. BY TOMORROW
NIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY SLIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST
TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO CLEAR OUT AND LEAD TO SOME DENSE VALLEY
FOG WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS
START OFF WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST COAST WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY
BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RIGHT IN
THE PATH OF ANY SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF TROUGH. REINTRODUCED SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS MAY JUST END UP WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES...HOWEVER THOUGH
IT WAS WORTHY OF ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO THE FORECAST.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD BLOCK ANY SYSTEMS FROM COMING
INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY MORNING AN UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER KENTUCKY. BY SUNDAY...THING GET A LOT MORE COMPLICATED
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST JUST EAST OF
WILMINGTON. THE RIDGING STARTS TO ERODE SOME AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
QUASI STATIONARY. AT THE SURFACE...THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS IS
FASTER WITH THE FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS. CONFIDENCE THROUGH
SATURDAY IS GOOD...HOWEVER BEGINS TO DEGRADE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE
STRATUS BE AND HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL PERSIST. AS OF 0530Z...THE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN
COUNTIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WHERE SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND
JKL...LOZ...SME HAVE GONE BELOW IFR. WILL GO WITH A AIRFIELD MINS
FORECAST AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. AFTERWARD THE FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 16Z AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A MORE
PERSISTENT LOW LAYER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. BY 18Z...IN MOST
INSTANCES...A 5 KFT CU LAYER SHOULD BE PRESENT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

000
FXUS63 KLMK 150518
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1044 PM EDT May 14 2012

Based on the latest obs and satellite trends, have decided to add
patchy dense fog to the overnight period. Best locations for this to
occur will be south and east of the Ohio River where the heaviest
rain has recently fallen. Skies should be mostly clear overnight
with just a few upper level clouds streaming overhead. This combined
with calm winds and dew points staying in the mid 50s will result in
fog potential. A couple of obs have already dropped below 10 miles
and expect conditions to gradually deteriorate after midnight. Adding
confidence that at least patches of dense fog will develop, latest
NAM time heights came in with more low level moisture right at the
surface and surface condensation pressure deficits at the 0 mb level
over much of the CWA. Updated products already out.


Update issued at 947 PM EDT May 14 2012

Another minor grid update to reflect the latest T/Td and sky cover
trends this evening. Low temperatures still look on track for the
mid and upper 50s, along with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
overnight. Still some concern as to how widespread and thick fog
will get tonight. We have low level moisture along with mostly clear
skies and calm winds, however with trough axis just to our northwest
airmass is not as subsident as one would like to see for widespread
dense fog. Adding to the uncertainty, upper level clouds look to
stream across south central Kentucky for much of the overnight which
could hurt the radiational cooling prospects a bit. Will keep
mention of patchy/areas of fog overnight and wait for any mention of
dense fog at this time.


Update issued at 635 PM EDT May 14 2012

A minor update to the grids/zones this evening to remove afternoon
wording and cut back on chances for rain showers over the next
couple of hours. Weak vort max moving across the southern CWA does
not look to be enough to sustain light showers along with the loss
of diurnal heating, so will trend the forecast dry over the next
hour or two. A look at current visible satellite shows cumulus field
beginning to diminish across most of the CWA, with the most
widespread cloud cover still along the I-75 corridor. Have reduced
sky cover for the evening hours, however confidence is still low as
to whether low stratus/stratocu or fog will develop tonight. Will
hit the fog forecast harder in the couple of hours and upgrade from
patchy fog to more widespread coverage if need be.


.Short Term (Tonight through Tuesday night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT May 14 2012

An upper trough is moving across the region today. Given the
low-level moisture, there remains a chance of isolated to scattered
showers this afternoon/early evening. Scattered showers are evident
across portions of central Kentucky at this time. Believe the best
instability will be further south and east, so will not include
thunder. Will dry things out tonight as the upper trough moves
slowly east, with temps dropping back into the mid 50s.

Skies will begin to clear from west to east overnight but
time-heights and soundings indicate it will be a slow process. Winds
will be light and with plenty of low-level moisture, fog formation
is not out of the question, particularly where skies do clear.
However, low stratus could also build in or linger into the
overnight hours, which would limit fog potential. Will hold on to
the cloud cover for just a little longer overnight and introduce
patchy fog in the pre-dawn hours for now. This will have to be
monitored this evening and tonight. Any fog that does form will
dissipate shortly after sunrise.

Dry conditions and light northerly winds will continue Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Under mostly sunny skies, high temperatures will
range from the mid 70s to right around 80 degrees. Mostly clear
skies will continue Tuesday night. Lows in the low to mid 50s are
expected, with the potential for some fog formation.


.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 324 PM EDT May 14 2012

The long term models appear to be in general agreement with a
progressive upper level pattern taking shape across the CONUS.
Initially, we will likely see a trough east/ridge west type pattern
across the US which will likely flip to a ridge east/trough west by
the end of the week.  Both the GFS and Euro still are insistent on
developing a slow moving eastern US coastal low by the weekend and
into early next week which may impact our weather to some degree.

With the initial trough in th east, the Ohio Valley will initially
start off in a weak northwesterly flow.  A reinforcing trough looks
to drop through during the day on Wednesday which will bring a
frontal boundary through the region.  While moisture is not all that
impressive, the models are still suggestive that isolated-scattered
convection may fire along that front as it sags across the region
Wednesday afternoon/evening.  For now, plan on keeping some slight
chance PoPs in the forecast to account for this.  The front should
push to the south and wash out by early Thursday morning as high
pressure builds in from the north and upper level heights rise over
the Ohio Valley.  The period for Friday-Sunday continues to look dry
as surface and upper level ridging build over the area.  The
aforementioned coastal low looks to move up the eastern US coast and
may spread a little moisture into our region on Monday which could
set off a few isolated showers or storms.

Better chances of precipitation look to occur just outside the
forecast period as an upper trough and associated surface cold front
will approach the region from the north and west.  Given that the
global models are typically too progressive with the flow in later
forecast ranges, I would not be surprised to see future solutions
slow down and delay precipitation chances until perhaps mid next
week.

Temperatures through the forecast period look to be slightly above
seasonal normals for mid May.  Daytime highs look to top out upper
70s to the lower 80s on Wed/Thu with highs generally in the lower
80s for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  With slightly more clouds and
moisture expected for Monday, highs may be a little cooler with
upper 70s to around 80 expected.   Overnight lows will remain mild
with readings generally in the lower-mid 50s Wednesday and Thursday
mornings with lower 60s expected during the latter part of the
period.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 120 AM EDT May 15 2012

High pressure overhead will bring continued clear skies and light
winds through early Wednesday. Fog will be a concern early this
morning, especially at LEX and BWG.

Standiford`s urban location and corresponding slightly higher
overnight temperatures will likely retard any dense fog formation.
However visibilities at SDF may fall to 2 or 3sm during the pre-dawn
hours. With recent rains, fog may become thicker at LEX and BWG.
MVFR visibilities are likely after 07 to 08z this morning. Temporary
IFR visibilities of less than one mile may develop just before dawn.

Any fog will dissipate towards 12 to 13z. After a clear morning,
expect a few afternoon flat cu with light north winds around 5 mph
this afternoon, becoming once again near calm after 01z Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........BS
Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........JSD

000
FXUS63 KPAH 150401
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1100 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

SOLID CLOUD DECK EARLIER OVER WEST KENTUCKY CONTINUED TO DECREASE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PENNYRILE REGION. NO
LIGHTNING SEEN...AND THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FADE. WILL END THE
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH SUNSET EXPECT
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS WEST 1/2 OF THE AREA TO FADE...AND WHAT IS LEFT
OVER WEST KENTUCKY TO EITHER DISSIPATE OR EVENTUALLY ADVECT OUT OF
THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER ON TAP TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
IS SEEN IN THE MODELS POOLING NEAR THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING TOO THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WE HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSRA...SINCE WE CANNOT RULE OUT
ENTIRELY SOME ISOLD CONVECTION WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WARMER TEMPS
ARE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. NO FRONTAL OR
UPPER AIR FEATURES TO KEY IN ON THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DURATION. HAVING SAID THAT...THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME INCREASE ON COLUMNAR MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SO WOULD
NOT RULE OUT ISOLD HEAT OF THE DAY CONVECTION. POPS JUST TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

NEXT LEGIT SHOT AT RAIN SEEMS TO BE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FOR TIMING THE FRONT. THAT RESULTED IN A DRY SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS INCREASING FROM NW TO SE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS PAN OUT...WE MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER POPS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL FORECAST
TERMINALS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KPAH AND KOWB WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MORE RELUCTANT TO DROP OFF. AS A RESULT...WE INTRODUCED A TEMPO 5SM
BR AT BOTH SITES FROM 10-13Z. NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
N/NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLMK 150244
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1044 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1044 PM EDT May 14 2012

Based on the latest obs and satellite trends, have decided to add
patchy dense fog to the overnight period. Best locations for this to
occur will be south and east of the Ohio River where the heaviest
rain has recently fallen. Skies should be mostly clear overnight
with just a few upper level clouds streaming overhead. This combined
with calm winds and dew points staying in the mid 50s will result in
fog potential. A couple of obs have already dropped below 10 miles
and expect conditions to gradually deteriorate after midnight. Adding
confidence that at least patches of dense fog will develop, latest
NAM time heights came in with more low level moisture right at the
surface and surface condensation pressure deficits at the 0 mb level
over much of the CWA. Updated products already out.

Update issued at 947 PM EDT May 14 2012

Another minor grid update to reflect the latest T/Td and sky cover
trends this evening. Low temperatures still look on track for the
mid and upper 50s, along with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
overnight. Still some concern as to how widespread and thick fog
will get tonight. We have low level moisture along with mostly clear
skies and calm winds, however with trough axis just to our northwest
airmass is not as subsident as one would like to see for widespread
dense fog. Adding to the uncertainty, upper level clouds look to
stream across south central Kentucky for much of the overnight which
could hurt the radiational cooling prospects a bit. Will keep
mention of patchy/areas of fog overnight and wait for any mention of
dense fog at this time.

Update issued at 635 PM EDT May 14 2012

A minor update to the grids/zones this evening to remove afternoon
wording and cut back on chances for rain showers over the next
couple of hours. Weak vort max moving across the southern CWA does
not look to be enough to sustain light showers along with the loss
of diurnal heating, so will trend the forecast dry over the next
hour or two. A look at current visible satellite shows cumulus field
beginning to diminish across most of the CWA, with the most
widespread cloud cover still along the I-75 corridor. Have reduced
sky cover for the evening hours, however confidence is still low as
to whether low stratus/stratocu or fog will develop tonight. Will
hit the fog forecast harder in the couple of hours and upgrade from
patchy fog to more widespread coverage if need be.

.Short Term (Tonight through Tuesday night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT May 14 2012

An upper trough is moving across the region today. Given the
low-level moisture, there remains a chance of isolated to scattered
showers this afternoon/early evening. Scattered showers are evident
across portions of central Kentucky at this time. Believe the best
instability will be further south and east, so will not include
thunder. Will dry things out tonight as the upper trough moves
slowly east, with temps dropping back into the mid 50s.

Skies will begin to clear from west to east overnight but
time-heights and soundings indicate it will be a slow process. Winds
will be light and with plenty of low-level moisture, fog formation
is not out of the question, particularly where skies do clear.
However, low stratus could also build in or linger into the
overnight hours, which would limit fog potential. Will hold on to
the cloud cover for just a little longer overnight and introduce
patchy fog in the pre-dawn hours for now. This will have to be
monitored this evening and tonight. Any fog that does form will
dissipate shortly after sunrise.

Dry conditions and light northerly winds will continue Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Under mostly sunny skies, high temperatures will
range from the mid 70s to right around 80 degrees. Mostly clear
skies will continue Tuesday night. Lows in the low to mid 50s are
expected, with the potential for some fog formation.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 324 PM EDT May 14 2012

The long term models appear to be in general agreement with a
progressive upper level pattern taking shape across the CONUS.
Initially, we will likely see a trough east/ridge west type pattern
across the US which will likely flip to a ridge east/trough west by
the end of the week.  Both the GFS and Euro still are insistent on
developing a slow moving eastern US coastal low by the weekend and
into early next week which may impact our weather to some degree.

With the initial trough in th east, the Ohio Valley will initially
start off in a weak northwesterly flow.  A reinforcing trough looks
to drop through during the day on Wednesday which will bring a
frontal boundary through the region.  While moisture is not all that
impressive, the models are still suggestive that isolated-scattered
convection may fire along that front as it sags across the region
Wednesday afternoon/evening.  For now, plan on keeping some slight
chance PoPs in the forecast to account for this.  The front should
push to the south and wash out by early Thursday morning as high
pressure builds in from the north and upper level heights rise over
the Ohio Valley.  The period for Friday-Sunday continues to look dry
as surface and upper level ridging build over the area.  The
aforementioned coastal low looks to move up the eastern US coast and
may spread a little moisture into our region on Monday which could
set off a few isolated showers or storms.

Better chances of precipitation look to occur just outside the
forecast period as an upper trough and associated surface cold front
will approach the region from the north and west.  Given that the
global models are typically too progressive with the flow in later
forecast ranges, I would not be surprised to see future solutions
slow down and delay precipitation chances until perhaps mid next
week.

Temperatures through the forecast period look to be slightly above
seasonal normals for mid May.  Daytime highs look to top out upper
70s to the lower 80s on Wed/Thu with highs generally in the lower
80s for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  With slightly more clouds and
moisture expected for Monday, highs may be a little cooler with
upper 70s to around 80 expected.   Overnight lows will remain mild
with readings generally in the lower-mid 50s Wednesday and Thursday
mornings with lower 60s expected during the latter part of the
period.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 717 PM EDT May 14 2012

Expect VFR conditions for the remainder of the evening with FEW-SCT
cu around 3-4 K feet gradually diminishing. Light northeast winds
will also be diminishing over the next couple of hours as the sun
sets. The big concern will be fog potential for the overnight as low
level moisture lingers, sky cover clears and winds become calm. At
this point, will call for BWG/LEX to go into the MVFR range shortly
after Midnight, with prevailing IFR Vis for a couple of hours around
dawn. Will monitor obs closely overnight. Otherwise, expect VFR to
return by mid morning Tuesday with FEW-SCT cumulus around 4-5 K
feet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........BJS
Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........BJS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 150240 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1040 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF PCPN OVERNIGHT AND
ALSO TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER. THE ADDITIONAL CLEARING...AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD HELP THE FOG FORMATION IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS. STILL EXPECT THE STRATUS IN THE EAST TO BUILD BACK
WEST AND LOWER LATER TONIGHT. UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT...ZFP AND HWO WILL FOLLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF
THE AREA...THOUGH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES ARE FOUND IN OUR FAR EAST...AS WELL. A PASSING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF THE CWA...
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY. EXPECT SOME RIDGETOP AND DEEP
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EAST AND SOME HOLES POP UP
IN THE LOWER STRATUS DECK FURTHER WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
FINE TUNE THE POPS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT...ZFP WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
NORTHWARD ALONG THE AXIS OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS LATE THIS EVENING...THE RAIN
THREAT WILL TEMPORARILY END. CLOUD COVER IS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT.
WITH THE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS...THEY WILL LIKELY HOLD THE
STRATUS IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CEILINGS MAY LOWER ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGETOPS TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
PERHAPS SPARKING OFF A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. MOISTURE WILL BE
A BIT MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. BY TOMORROW
NIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY SLIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST
TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO CLEAR OUT AND LEAD TO SOME DENSE VALLEY
FOG WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS
START OFF WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST COAST WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY
BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RIGHT IN
THE PATH OF ANY SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF TROUGH. REINTRODUCED SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS MAY JUST END UP WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES...HOWEVER THOUGH
IT WAS WORTHY OF ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO THE FORECAST.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD BLOCK ANY SYSTEMS FROM COMING
INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY MORNING AN UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER KENTUCKY. BY SUNDAY...THING GET A LOT MORE COMPLICATED
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST JUST EAST OF
WILMINGTON. THE RIDGING STARTS TO ERODE SOME AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
QUASI STATIONARY. AT THE SURFACE...THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS IS
FASTER WITH THE FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS. CONFIDENCE THROUGH
SATURDAY IS GOOD...HOWEVER BEGINS TO DEGRADE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH
STILL IN OUR VICINITY...WE SHOULD SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
STRATUS HOLDING ON OR REDEVELOPING. THAT SAID...IF WE WERE TO CLEAR
OUT...LOCALLY DENSE FOG WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...WE SHOULD
SEE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS TONIGHT. WITH
THE STRATUS SCENARIO BEING MORE LIKELY...BROUGHT DOWN VISIBILITIES
AT JKL AS THE STRATUS LOWERS ONTO THE RIDGETOPS LATER THIS EVENING.
DID ALSO ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL FOG AT THE SME AND LOZ
SITES TOWARD DAWN IN CASE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS THERE
SHOULD THE STRATUS THIN ENOUGH. THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT A BIT BY
MIDDAY ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN LOWER THAN VFR. WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 150147
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
947 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 947 PM EDT May 14 2012

Another minor grid update to reflect the latest T/Td and sky cover
trends this evening. Low temperatures still look on track for the
mid and upper 50s, along with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
overnight. Still some concern as to how widespread and thick fog
will get tonight. We have low level moisture along with mostly clear
skies and calm winds, however with trough axis just to our northwest
airmass is not as subsident as one would like to see for widespread
dense fog. Adding to the uncertainty, upper level clouds look to
stream across south central Kentucky for much of the overnight which
could hurt the radiational cooling prospects a bit. Will keep
mention of patchy/areas of fog overnight and wait for any mention of
dense fog at this time.

Update issued at 635 PM EDT May 14 2012

A minor update to the grids/zones this evening to remove afternoon
wording and cut back on chances for rain showers over the next
couple of hours. Weak vort max moving across the southern CWA does
not look to be enough to sustain light showers along with the loss
of diurnal heating, so will trend the forecast dry over the next
hour or two. A look at current visible satellite shows cumulus field
beginning to diminish across most of the CWA, with the most
widespread cloud cover still along the I-75 corridor. Have reduced
sky cover for the evening hours, however confidence is still low as
to whether low stratus/stratocu or fog will develop tonight. Will
hit the fog forecast harder in the couple of hours and upgrade from
patchy fog to more widespread coverage if need be.

.Short Term (Tonight through Tuesday night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT May 14 2012

An upper trough is moving across the region today. Given the
low-level moisture, there remains a chance of isolated to scattered
showers this afternoon/early evening. Scattered showers are evident
across portions of central Kentucky at this time. Believe the best
instability will be further south and east, so will not include
thunder. Will dry things out tonight as the upper trough moves
slowly east, with temps dropping back into the mid 50s.

Skies will begin to clear from west to east overnight but
time-heights and soundings indicate it will be a slow process. Winds
will be light and with plenty of low-level moisture, fog formation
is not out of the question, particularly where skies do clear.
However, low stratus could also build in or linger into the
overnight hours, which would limit fog potential. Will hold on to
the cloud cover for just a little longer overnight and introduce
patchy fog in the pre-dawn hours for now. This will have to be
monitored this evening and tonight. Any fog that does form will
dissipate shortly after sunrise.

Dry conditions and light northerly winds will continue Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Under mostly sunny skies, high temperatures will
range from the mid 70s to right around 80 degrees. Mostly clear
skies will continue Tuesday night. Lows in the low to mid 50s are
expected, with the potential for some fog formation.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 324 PM EDT May 14 2012

The long term models appear to be in general agreement with a
progressive upper level pattern taking shape across the CONUS.
Initially, we will likely see a trough east/ridge west type pattern
across the US which will likely flip to a ridge east/trough west by
the end of the week.  Both the GFS and Euro still are insistent on
developing a slow moving eastern US coastal low by the weekend and
into early next week which may impact our weather to some degree.

With the initial trough in th east, the Ohio Valley will initially
start off in a weak northwesterly flow.  A reinforcing trough looks
to drop through during the day on Wednesday which will bring a
frontal boundary through the region.  While moisture is not all that
impressive, the models are still suggestive that isolated-scattered
convection may fire along that front as it sags across the region
Wednesday afternoon/evening.  For now, plan on keeping some slight
chance PoPs in the forecast to account for this.  The front should
push to the south and wash out by early Thursday morning as high
pressure builds in from the north and upper level heights rise over
the Ohio Valley.  The period for Friday-Sunday continues to look dry
as surface and upper level ridging build over the area.  The
aforementioned coastal low looks to move up the eastern US coast and
may spread a little moisture into our region on Monday which could
set off a few isolated showers or storms.

Better chances of precipitation look to occur just outside the
forecast period as an upper trough and associated surface cold front
will approach the region from the north and west.  Given that the
global models are typically too progressive with the flow in later
forecast ranges, I would not be surprised to see future solutions
slow down and delay precipitation chances until perhaps mid next
week.

Temperatures through the forecast period look to be slightly above
seasonal normals for mid May.  Daytime highs look to top out upper
70s to the lower 80s on Wed/Thu with highs generally in the lower
80s for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  With slightly more clouds and
moisture expected for Monday, highs may be a little cooler with
upper 70s to around 80 expected.   Overnight lows will remain mild
with readings generally in the lower-mid 50s Wednesday and Thursday
mornings with lower 60s expected during the latter part of the
period.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 717 PM EDT May 14 2012

Expect VFR conditions for the remainder of the evening with FEW-SCT
cu around 3-4 K feet gradually diminishing. Light northeast winds
will also be diminishing over the next couple of hours as the sun
sets. The big concern will be fog potential for the overnight as low
level moisture lingers, sky cover clears and winds become calm. At
this point, will call for BWG/LEX to go into the MVFR range shortly
after Midnight, with prevailing IFR Vis for a couple of hours around
dawn. Will monitor obs closely overnight. Otherwise, expect VFR to
return by mid morning Tuesday with FEW-SCT cumulus around 4-5 K
feet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........BJS
Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........BJS

000
FXUS63 KPAH 150039
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
739 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. DECIDED TO ADD IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS FOR ANOTHER HOUR AND KILL THEM OFF
AT 02Z.

IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT SLOWER TO DROP THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...SO TRIED TO ADJUST THE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH DEWPOINTS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE AREA...AS MID TO UPPER 40 DEWPOINTS ARE LINGERING
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE AREA AS OF 00Z. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO GO
NEARLY CALM LATER THIS EVENING...PUTTING AN END TO ANY DRY
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT
ON LOW TEMPERATURES...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

SOLID CLOUD DECK EARLIER OVER WEST KENTUCKY CONTINUED TO DECREASE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PENNYRILE REGION. NO
LIGHTNING SEEN...AND THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FADE. WILL END THE
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH SUNSET EXPECT
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS WEST 1/2 OF THE AREA TO FADE...AND WHAT IS LEFT
OVER WEST KENTUCKY TO EITHER DISSIPATE OR EVENTUALLY ADVECT OUT OF
THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER ON TAP TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
IS SEEN IN THE MODELS POOLING NEAR THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING TOO THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WE HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSRA...SINCE WE CANNOT RULE OUT
ENTIRELY SOME ISOLD CONVECTION WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WARMER TEMPS
ARE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. NO FRONTAL OR
UPPER AIR FEATURES TO KEY IN ON THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DURATION. HAVING SAID THAT...THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME INCREASE ON COLUMNAR MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SO WOULD
NOT RULE OUT ISOLD HEAT OF THE DAY CONVECTION. POPS JUST TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

NEXT LEGIT SHOT AT RAIN SEEMS TO BE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FOR TIMING THE FRONT. THAT RESULTED IN A DRY SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS INCREASING FROM NW TO SE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS PAN OUT...WE MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER POPS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL FORECAST
TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING UNDER 5-6SM FOR ANY DURATION.
NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME N/NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 142350 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF
THE AREA...THOUGH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES ARE FOUND IN OUR FAR EAST...AS WELL. A PASSING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF THE CWA...
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY. EXPECT SOME RIDGETOP AND DEEP
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EAST AND SOME HOLES POP UP
IN THE LOWER STRATUS DECK FURTHER WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
FINE TUNE THE POPS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT...ZFP WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
NORTHWARD ALONG THE AXIS OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS LATE THIS EVENING...THE RAIN
THREAT WILL TEMPORARILY END. CLOUD COVER IS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT.
WITH THE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS...THEY WILL LIKELY HOLD THE
STRATUS IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CEILINGS MAY LOWER ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGETOPS TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
PERHAPS SPARKING OFF A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. MOISTURE WILL BE
A BIT MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. BY TOMORROW
NIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY SLIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST
TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO CLEAR OUT AND LEAD TO SOME DENSE VALLEY
FOG WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS
START OFF WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST COAST WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY
BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RIGHT IN
THE PATH OF ANY SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF TROUGH. REINTRODUCED SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS MAY JUST END UP WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES...HOWEVER THOUGH
IT WAS WORTHY OF ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO THE FORECAST.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD BLOCK ANY SYSTEMS FROM COMING
INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY MORNING AN UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER KENTUCKY. BY SUNDAY...THING GET A LOT MORE COMPLICATED
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST JUST EAST OF
WILMINGTON. THE RIDGING STARTS TO ERODE SOME AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
QUASI STATIONARY. AT THE SURFACE...THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS IS
FASTER WITH THE FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS. CONFIDENCE THROUGH
SATURDAY IS GOOD...HOWEVER BEGINS TO DEGRADE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH
STILL IN OUR VICINITY...WE SHOULD SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
STRATUS HOLDING ON OR REDEVELOPING. THAT SAID...IF WE WERE TO CLEAR
OUT...LOCALLY DENSE FOG WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...WE SHOULD
SEE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS TONIGHT. WITH
THE STRATUS SCENARIO BEING MORE LIKELY...BROUGHT DOWN VISIBILITIES
AT JKL AS THE STRATUS LOWERS ONTO THE RIDGETOPS LATER THIS EVENING.
DID ALSO ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL FOG AT THE SME AND LOZ
SITES TOWARD DAWN IN CASE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS THERE
SHOULD THE STRATUS THIN ENOUGH. THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT A BIT BY
MIDDAY ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN LOWER THAN VFR. WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KPAH 142322
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
622 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

SOLID CLOUD DECK EARLIER OVER WEST KENTUCKY CONTINUED TO DECREASE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PENNYRILE REGION. NO
LIGHTNING SEEN...AND THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FADE. WILL END THE
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH SUNSET EXPECT
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS WEST 1/2 OF THE AREA TO FADE...AND WHAT IS LEFT
OVER WEST KENTUCKY TO EITHER DISSIPATE OR EVENTUALLY ADVECT OUT OF
THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER ON TAP TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
IS SEEN IN THE MODELS POOLING NEAR THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING TOO THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WE HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSRA...SINCE WE CANNOT RULE OUT
ENTIRELY SOME ISOLD CONVECTION WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WARMER TEMPS
ARE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. NO FRONTAL OR
UPPER AIR FEATURES TO KEY IN ON THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DURATION. HAVING SAID THAT...THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME INCREASE ON COLUMNAR MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SO WOULD
NOT RULE OUT ISOLD HEAT OF THE DAY CONVECTION. POPS JUST TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

NEXT LEGIT SHOT AT RAIN SEEMS TO BE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FOR TIMING THE FRONT. THAT RESULTED IN A DRY SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS INCREASING FROM NW TO SE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS PAN OUT...WE MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER POPS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL FORECAST
TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING UNDER 5-6SM FOR ANY DURATION.
NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME N/NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLMK 142317
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
717 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 635 PM EDT May 14 2012

A minor update to the grids/zones this evening to remove afternoon
wording and cut back on chances for rain showers over the next
couple of hours. Weak vort max moving across the southern CWA does
not look to be enough to sustain light showers along with the loss
of diurnal heating, so will trend the forecast dry over the next
hour or two. A look at current visible satellite shows cumulus field
beginning to diminish across most of the CWA, with the most
widespread cloud cover still along the I-75 corridor. Have reduced
sky cover for the evening hours, however confidence is still low as
to whether low stratus/stratocu or fog will develop tonight. Will
hit the fog forecast harder in the couple of hours and upgrade from
patchy fog to more widespread coverage if need be.

.Short Term (Tonight through Tuesday night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT May 14 2012

An upper trough is moving across the region today. Given the
low-level moisture, there remains a chance of isolated to scattered
showers this afternoon/early evening. Scattered showers are evident
across portions of central Kentucky at this time. Believe the best
instability will be further south and east, so will not include
thunder. Will dry things out tonight as the upper trough moves
slowly east, with temps dropping back into the mid 50s.

Skies will begin to clear from west to east overnight but
time-heights and soundings indicate it will be a slow process. Winds
will be light and with plenty of low-level moisture, fog formation
is not out of the question, particularly where skies do clear.
However, low stratus could also build in or linger into the
overnight hours, which would limit fog potential. Will hold on to
the cloud cover for just a little longer overnight and introduce
patchy fog in the pre-dawn hours for now. This will have to be
monitored this evening and tonight. Any fog that does form will
dissipate shortly after sunrise.

Dry conditions and light northerly winds will continue Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Under mostly sunny skies, high temperatures will
range from the mid 70s to right around 80 degrees. Mostly clear
skies will continue Tuesday night. Lows in the low to mid 50s are
expected, with the potential for some fog formation.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 324 PM EDT May 14 2012

The long term models appear to be in general agreement with a
progressive upper level pattern taking shape across the CONUS.
Initially, we will likely see a trough east/ridge west type pattern
across the US which will likely flip to a ridge east/trough west by
the end of the week.  Both the GFS and Euro still are insistent on
developing a slow moving eastern US coastal low by the weekend and
into early next week which may impact our weather to some degree.

With the initial trough in th east, the Ohio Valley will initially
start off in a weak northwesterly flow.  A reinforcing trough looks
to drop through during the day on Wednesday which will bring a
frontal boundary through the region.  While moisture is not all that
impressive, the models are still suggestive that isolated-scattered
convection may fire along that front as it sags across the region
Wednesday afternoon/evening.  For now, plan on keeping some slight
chance PoPs in the forecast to account for this.  The front should
push to the south and wash out by early Thursday morning as high
pressure builds in from the north and upper level heights rise over
the Ohio Valley.  The period for Friday-Sunday continues to look dry
as surface and upper level ridging build over the area.  The
aforementioned coastal low looks to move up the eastern US coast and
may spread a little moisture into our region on Monday which could
set off a few isolated showers or storms.

Better chances of precipitation look to occur just outside the
forecast period as an upper trough and associated surface cold front
will approach the region from the north and west.  Given that the
global models are typically too progressive with the flow in later
forecast ranges, I would not be surprised to see future solutions
slow down and delay precipitation chances until perhaps mid next
week.

Temperatures through the forecast period look to be slightly above
seasonal normals for mid May.  Daytime highs look to top out upper
70s to the lower 80s on Wed/Thu with highs generally in the lower
80s for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  With slightly more clouds and
moisture expected for Monday, highs may be a little cooler with
upper 70s to around 80 expected.   Overnight lows will remain mild
with readings generally in the lower-mid 50s Wednesday and Thursday
mornings with lower 60s expected during the latter part of the
period.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 717 PM EDT May 14 2012

Expect VFR conditions for the remainder of the evening with FEW-SCT
cu around 3-4 K feet gradually diminishing. Light northeast winds
will also be diminishing over the next couple of hours as the sun
sets. The big concern will be fog potential for the overnight as low
level moisture lingers, sky cover clears and winds become calm. At
this point, will call for BWG/LEX to go into the MVFR range shortly
after Midnight, with prevailing IFR Vis for a couple of hours around
dawn. Will monitor obs closely overnight. Otherwise, expect VFR to
return by mid morning Tuesday with FEW-SCT cumulus around 4-5 K
feet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........BJS
Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........BJS

000
FXUS63 KLMK 142236
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
635 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 635 PM EDT May 14 2012

A minor update to the grids/zones this evening to remove afternoon
wording and cut back on chances for rain showers over the next
couple of hours. Weak vort max moving across the southern CWA does
not look to be enough to sustain light showers along with the loss
of diurnal heating, so will trend the forecast dry over the next
hour or two. A look at current visible satellite shows cumulus field
beginning to diminish across most of the CWA, with the most
widespread cloud cover still along the I-75 corridor. Have reduced
sky cover for the evening hours, however confidence is still low as
to whether low stratus/stratocu or fog will develop tonight. Will
hit the fog forecast harder in the couple of hours and upgrade from
patchy fog to more widespread coverage if need be.

.Short Term (Tonight through Tuesday night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT May 14 2012

An upper trough is moving across the region today. Given the
low-level moisture, there remains a chance of isolated to scattered
showers this afternoon/early evening. Scattered showers are evident
across portions of central Kentucky at this time. Believe the best
instability will be further south and east, so will not include
thunder. Will dry things out tonight as the upper trough moves
slowly east, with temps dropping back into the mid 50s.

Skies will begin to clear from west to east overnight but
time-heights and soundings indicate it will be a slow process. Winds
will be light and with plenty of low-level moisture, fog formation
is not out of the question, particularly where skies do clear.
However, low stratus could also build in or linger into the
overnight hours, which would limit fog potential. Will hold on to
the cloud cover for just a little longer overnight and introduce
patchy fog in the pre-dawn hours for now. This will have to be
monitored this evening and tonight. Any fog that does form will
dissipate shortly after sunrise.

Dry conditions and light northerly winds will continue Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Under mostly sunny skies, high temperatures will
range from the mid 70s to right around 80 degrees. Mostly clear
skies will continue Tuesday night. Lows in the low to mid 50s are
expected, with the potential for some fog formation.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 324 PM EDT May 14 2012

The long term models appear to be in general agreement with a
progressive upper level pattern taking shape across the CONUS.
Initially, we will likely see a trough east/ridge west type pattern
across the US which will likely flip to a ridge east/trough west by
the end of the week.  Both the GFS and Euro still are insistent on
developing a slow moving eastern US coastal low by the weekend and
into early next week which may impact our weather to some degree.

With the initial trough in th east, the Ohio Valley will initially
start off in a weak northwesterly flow.  A reinforcing trough looks
to drop through during the day on Wednesday which will bring a
frontal boundary through the region.  While moisture is not all that
impressive, the models are still suggestive that isolated-scattered
convection may fire along that front as it sags across the region
Wednesday afternoon/evening.  For now, plan on keeping some slight
chance PoPs in the forecast to account for this.  The front should
push to the south and wash out by early Thursday morning as high
pressure builds in from the north and upper level heights rise over
the Ohio Valley.  The period for Friday-Sunday continues to look dry
as surface and upper level ridging build over the area.  The
aforementioned coastal low looks to move up the eastern US coast and
may spread a little moisture into our region on Monday which could
set off a few isolated showers or storms.

Better chances of precipitation look to occur just outside the
forecast period as an upper trough and associated surface cold front
will approach the region from the north and west.  Given that the
global models are typically too progressive with the flow in later
forecast ranges, I would not be surprised to see future solutions
slow down and delay precipitation chances until perhaps mid next
week.

Temperatures through the forecast period look to be slightly above
seasonal normals for mid May.  Daytime highs look to top out upper
70s to the lower 80s on Wed/Thu with highs generally in the lower
80s for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  With slightly more clouds and
moisture expected for Monday, highs may be a little cooler with
upper 70s to around 80 expected.   Overnight lows will remain mild
with readings generally in the lower-mid 50s Wednesday and Thursday
mornings with lower 60s expected during the latter part of the
period.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 110 PM EDT May 14 2012

Low ceilings have held on for much of the morning. However, the
cloud deck is breaking up and lifting. So, expect current MVFR cigs
to continue to improve and reach VFR thresholds by late this
afternoon/early evening. With an upper trough still moving through
the region, isolated to scattered showers remain possible this
afternoon. Given low confidence of this occurring at SDF and LEX,
will not mention at this time. However, will include VCSH at BWG.
Expect VFR conditions to continue through much of the overnight
hours, but with skies slowly clearing, reduced visibility will be
possible at all sites in the pre-dawn hours. Expect visibility to
improve shortly after sunrise, with VFR conditions for the remainder
of the forecast period. Otherwise, winds will remain light and from
the north-northeast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........BJS
Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........MJP

000
FXUS63 KPAH 141949
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
249 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

SOLID CLOUD DECK EARLIER OVER WEST KENTUCKY CONTINUED TO DECREASE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PENNYRILE REGION. NO
LIGHTNING SEEN...AND THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FADE. WILL END THE
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH SUNSET EXPECT
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS WEST 1/2 OF THE AREA TO FADE...AND WHAT IS LEFT
OVER WEST KENTUCKY TO EITHER DISSIPATE OR EVENTUALLY ADVECT OUT OF
THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER ON TAP TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
IS SEEN IN THE MODELS POOLING NEAR THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING TOO THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WE HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSRA...SINCE WE CANNOT RULE OUT
ENTIRELY SOME ISOLD CONVECTION WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WARMER TEMPS
ARE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. NO FRONTAL OR
UPPER AIR FEATURES TO KEY IN ON THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DURATION. HAVING SAID THAT...THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME INCREASE ON COLUMNAR MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SO WOULD
NOT RULE OUT ISOLD HEAT OF THE DAY CONVECTION. POPS JUST TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

NEXT LEGIT SHOT AT RAIN SEEMS TO BE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FOR TIMING THE FRONT. THAT RESULTED IN A DRY SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS INCREASING FROM NW TO SE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS PAN OUT...WE MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER POPS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN THE CU/STRATO-CU COVERING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE DECK CONTINUES TO BREAK OVER WEST KENTUCKY.
OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...CU MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND
MOST ALL OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET OR
SHORTLY AFTER. NEAR CALM WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
MIGHT HAVE TO CONSIDER BRIEF MVFR 4-5SM BR AT THE TAF SITES GIVEN
CALM CONDITIONS AND SOMEWHAT HIGH HUMIDITY. WILL MONITOR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 141925
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
NORTHWARD ALONG THE AXIS OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS LATE THIS EVENING...THE RAIN
THREAT WILL TEMPORARILY END. CLOUD COVER IS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT.
WITH THE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS...THEY WILL LIKELY HOLD THE
STRATUS IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CEILINGS MAY LOWER ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGETOPS TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
PERHAPS SPARKING OFF A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. MOISTURE WILL BE
A BIT MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. BY TOMORROW
NIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY SLIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST
TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO CLEAR OUT AND LEAD TO SOME DENSE VALLEY
FOG WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS
START OFF WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST COAST WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY
BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RIGHT IN
THE PATH OF ANY SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF TROUGH. REINTRODUCED SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS MAY JUST END UP WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES...HOWEVER THOUGH
IT WAS WORTHY OF ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO THE FORECAST.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD BLOCK ANY SYSTEMS FROM COMING
INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY MORNING AN UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER KENTUCKY. BY SUNDAY...THING GET A LOT MORE COMPLICATED
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST JUST EAST OF
WILMINGTON. THE RIDGING STARTS TO ERODE SOME AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
QUASI STATIONARY. AT THE SURFACE...THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS IS
FASTER WITH THE FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS. CONFIDENCE THROUGH
SATURDAY IS GOOD...HOWEVER BEGINS TO DEGRADE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY
INCREASING...A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH STILL IN OUR
VICINITY...WE SHOULD SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IF WE WERE TO CLEAR OUT...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...WE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AT OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS TONIGHT. WITH THE STRATUS
SCENARIO BEING MORE LIKELY...BROUGHT DOWN VISIBILITIES AT KJKL AS THE
STRATUS LOWERS ONTO THE RIDGETOPS TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...KAS

000
FXUS63 KLMK 141925
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
324 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.Short Term (Tonight through Tuesday night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT May 14 2012

An upper trough is moving across the region today. Given the
low-level moisture, there remains a chance of isolated to scattered
showers this afternoon/early evening. Scattered showers are evident
across portions of central Kentucky at this time. Believe the best
instability will be further south and east, so will not include
thunder. Will dry things out tonight as the upper trough moves
slowly east, with temps dropping back into the mid 50s.

Skies will begin to clear from west to east overnight but
time-heights and soundings indicate it will be a slow process. Winds
will be light and with plenty of low-level moisture, fog formation
is not out of the question, particularly where skies do clear.
However, low stratus could also build in or linger into the
overnight hours, which would limit fog potential. Will hold on to
the cloud cover for just a little longer overnight and introduce
patchy fog in the pre-dawn hours for now. This will have to be
monitored this evening and tonight. Any fog that does form will
dissipate shortly after sunrise.

Dry conditions and light northerly winds will continue Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Under mostly sunny skies, high temperatures will
range from the mid 70s to right around 80 degrees. Mostly clear
skies will continue Tuesday night. Lows in the low to mid 50s are
expected, with the potential for some fog formation.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 324 PM EDT May 14 2012

The long term models appear to be in general agreement with a
progressive upper level pattern taking shape across the CONUS.
Initially, we will likely see a trough east/ridge west type pattern
across the US which will likely flip to a ridge east/trough west by
the end of the week.  Both the GFS and Euro still are insistent on
developing a slow moving eastern US coastal low by the weekend and
into early next week which may impact our weather to some degree.

With the initial trough in th east, the Ohio Valley will initially
start off in a weak northwesterly flow.  A reinforcing trough looks
to drop through during the day on Wednesday which will bring a
frontal boundary through the region.  While moisture is not all that
impressive, the models are still suggestive that isolated-scattered
convection may fire along that front as it sags across the region
Wednesday afternoon/evening.  For now, plan on keeping some slight
chance PoPs in the forecast to account for this.  The front should
push to the south and wash out by early Thursday morning as high
pressure builds in from the north and upper level heights rise over
the Ohio Valley.  The period for Friday-Sunday continues to look dry
as surface and upper level ridging build over the area.  The
aforementioned coastal low looks to move up the eastern US coast and
may spread a little moisture into our region on Monday which could
set off a few isolated showers or storms.

Better chances of precipitation look to occur just outside the
forecast period as an upper trough and associated surface cold front
will approach the region from the north and west.  Given that the
global models are typically too progressive with the flow in later
forecast ranges, I would not be surprised to see future solutions
slow down and delay precipitation chances until perhaps mid next
week.

Temperatures through the forecast period look to be slightly above
seasonal normals for mid May.  Daytime highs look to top out upper
70s to the lower 80s on Wed/Thu with highs generally in the lower
80s for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  With slightly more clouds and
moisture expected for Monday, highs may be a little cooler with
upper 70s to around 80 expected.   Overnight lows will remain mild
with readings generally in the lower-mid 50s Wednesday and Thursday
mornings with lower 60s expected during the latter part of the
period.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 110 PM EDT May 14 2012

Low ceilings have held on for much of the morning. However, the
cloud deck is breaking up and lifting. So, expect current MVFR cigs
to continue to improve and reach VFR thresholds by late this
afternoon/early evening. With an upper trough still moving through
the region, isolated to scattered showers remain possible this
afternoon. Given low confidence of this occurring at SDF and LEX,
will not mention at this time. However, will include VCSH at BWG.
Expect VFR conditions to continue through much of the overnight
hours, but with skies slowly clearing, reduced visibility will be
possible at all sites in the pre-dawn hours. Expect visibility to
improve shortly after sunrise, with VFR conditions for the remainder
of the forecast period. Otherwise, winds will remain light and from
the north-northeast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........MJP

000
FXUS63 KJKL 141726
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
126 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

SHORTWAVE IS STARTING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY IS ALSO INCREASING FAIRLY
QUICKLY...SO DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS DEPARTED EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ONLY
SOME PESKY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA.
EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CROSSING
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND THIS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THIS SHOULD HELP DEVELOP WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THUS...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...TO THE NORTH...THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY
OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE PART OF THE DAY. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES AND FORECAST WILL BE OUT SOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

MAINLY FRESHENED THE HOURLY TRENDS. THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF
FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST HOUR. PRECIPITATION THAT
STARTED OUT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS HELD TOGETHER AND EVEN
EXPANDED SOMEWHAT AS IT PIVOTED TO THE NORTHEAST. DID INCREASE POPS A
BIT EARLIER IN THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALIGNED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FUNNELING UP THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH RAIN UP
UNTIL THIS RECENT CONVECTION MOVED IN...HOWEVER MAY NEED TO
EVENTUALLY HOIST A NUISANCE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
IF ENOUGH TRAINING OCCURS. RIGHT NOW...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AXIS IS TRYING TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.
EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY BY MID-MORNING...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH EASES OFF TO THE
EAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS STILL LOOK PROBABLE TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS LINGERING ALONG WITH SOME HEATING.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY...TAKING
THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

EARLY IN THE PERIOD A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE EXITING TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH
GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON
WED INTO WED EVENING...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
IN ITS WAKE. THE SFC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
THE WEEKEND...BUT IT ALONG WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE GENERALLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WILL DOMINATE.

AT THIS POINT...THE MIDWEEK SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS IT PASSES AS IT WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL AND
SFC RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY LEAVE
THE REGION CAPPED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. A VERY ISOLATED POP UP CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING NEAR THE TN OR VA
BORDERS FROM FRI ON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
EVEN INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY
INCREASING...A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH STILL IN OUR
VICINITY...WE SHOULD SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IF WE WERE TO CLEAR OUT...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...WE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AT OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS TONIGHT. WITH THE STRATUS
SCENARIO BEING MORE LIKELY...BROUGHT DOWN VISIBILITIES AT KJKL AS THE
STRATUS LOWERS ONTO THE RIDGETOPS TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...KAS

000
FXUS63 KLMK 141710
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
110 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1058 AM EDT May 14 2012

Have updated the forecast to align temps and cloud cover to current
conditions. With our final shortwave yet to move across the forecast
area, have adjusted PoPs a bit to reflect the best chance of rain to
be across our south and east this afternoon. Also removed thunder.
Latest guidance suggests any scattered rain shower development will
push east this evening, providing dry overnight conditions. Updated
products will be issued shortly.

.Short Term (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 14 2012

Inverted surface trough extends from the Tennessee Valley up through
the Cumberland Plateau, with southern Indiana and central Kentucky
remaining under a weak gradient and lots of low-level moisture. KOHX
and KILN 00Z raobs and model forecast soundings in between suggest
we are saturated up through about 700 mb, which is keeping a cloudy
and at times drizzly regime in place over the area.

Main challenge in the first period will be the extent of our precip
chances. Even as the surface trough makes a slow exit, the upper
trough will hang in over the Ohio Valley, allowing lapse rates to
steepen. Model forecast soundings suggest convective temps in the
upper 60s, and with the high sun angle of mid-May, it won`t take
much to get there, especially west of I-65. Highest precip chances
will be a 50 POP from the Bluegrass down to Lake Cumberland, where
moisture supply is best. Tapered things down to around 30% chance
along the I-65 corridor, and slight chance farther west. Model
soundings indicate roughly 700 J/kg of CAPE and LIs of -2 or -3
along and west of I-65, so will carry slight chance of thunder where
temps get the warmest. Eastern zones will have no mention of thunder
as thicker and more persistent cloud cover keeps things cooler.

Will dry out Monday night and Tuesday as the upper trough moves
slowly east, giving way to some drier air even though the surface
pattern remains rather sloppy. Clearing skies will allow larger
diurnal temperature ranges, with temps just on the high side of
normal both night and day.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 225 AM EDT May 14 2012

Upper air pattern late Tuesday will feature a robust 500mb ridge and
quite warm temperatures across the northern Rockies and the Central
Plains. A brief transitory trough will scoot across the eastern
Great Lakes late Tuesday before ridging and warming temperatures
arrive by Friday.

Weak northwest flow aloft and subsidence in the wake of troughing
east of the Appalachians will bring warmer and drier air to the
Lower Ohio Valley for Tuesday night and Wednesday. With light winds
and likely clear skies early Wednesday, some fog may develop during
the early morning hours. Under mostly sunny skies, expect
Wednesday`s highs to reach the mid 70s to around 80.

High pressure of Canadian origin will build across the Upper Midwest
early Wednesday. The GFS and the NAM handle the southern penetration
of this boundary differently, the more aggressive GFS does bring
this boundary just south of the Ohio River late Wednesday, with a
shift to light northerly winds while hinting at some potential
isolated thunderstorms across southern Indiana late Wednesday.
Prefer the drier, weaker NAM, which washes out the boundary across
central Indiana. Will leave Wednesday night dry.

Both the GFS and especially the ECMWF hint at the development of a
slow moving coastal low off the Carolinas Thursday through Saturday.
While some sort of residual troughiness lingers off the east coast,
ridging will build over Commonwealth and will linger through the
weekend.

Expect a warm and sunny period Thursday through Sunday with
temperatures gradually warming into the mid 80s by the weekend.
Initially, an lobe of surface high pressure extending southwest from
New England will keep winds practically calm or light easterly
through Friday. This will keep a bit of a lid on our warmup.
However, with the surface ridge moving east by Saturday, light south
winds will develop and allow highs to warm into the mid 80s by
Saturday.

A cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Monday.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 110 PM EDT May 14 2012

Low ceilings have held on for much of the morning. However, the
cloud deck is breaking up and lifting. So, expect current MVFR cigs
to continue to improve and reach VFR thresholds by late this
afternoon/early evening. With an upper trough still moving through
the region, isolated to scattered showers remain possible this
afternoon. Given low confidence of this occurring at SDF and LEX,
will not mention at this time. However, will include VCSH at BWG.
Expect VFR conditions to continue through much of the overnight
hours, but with skies slowly clearing, reduced visibility will be
possible at all sites in the pre-dawn hours. Expect visibility to
improve shortly after sunrise, with VFR conditions for the remainder
of the forecast period. Otherwise, winds will remain light and from
the north-northeast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........MJP
Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........MJP

000
FXUS63 KLMK 141458
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1058 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1058 AM EDT May 14 2012

Have updated the forecast to align temps and cloud cover to current
conditions. With our final shortwave yet to move across the forecast
area, have adjusted PoPs a bit to reflect the best chance of rain to
be across our south and east this afternoon. Also removed thunder.
Latest guidance suggests any scattered rain shower development will
push east this evening, providing dry overnight conditions. Updated
products will be issued shortly.

.Short Term (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 14 2012

Inverted surface trough extends from the Tennessee Valley up through
the Cumberland Plateau, with southern Indiana and central Kentucky
remaining under a weak gradient and lots of low-level moisture. KOHX
and KILN 00Z raobs and model forecast soundings in between suggest
we are saturated up through about 700 mb, which is keeping a cloudy
and at times drizzly regime in place over the area.

Main challenge in the first period will be the extent of our precip
chances. Even as the surface trough makes a slow exit, the upper
trough will hang in over the Ohio Valley, allowing lapse rates to
steepen. Model forecast soundings suggest convective temps in the
upper 60s, and with the high sun angle of mid-May, it won`t take
much to get there, especially west of I-65. Highest precip chances
will be a 50 POP from the Bluegrass down to Lake Cumberland, where
moisture supply is best. Tapered things down to around 30% chance
along the I-65 corridor, and slight chance farther west. Model
soundings indicate roughly 700 J/kg of CAPE and LIs of -2 or -3
along and west of I-65, so will carry slight chance of thunder where
temps get the warmest. Eastern zones will have no mention of thunder
as thicker and more persistent cloud cover keeps things cooler.

Will dry out Monday night and Tuesday as the upper trough moves
slowly east, giving way to some drier air even though the surface
pattern remains rather sloppy. Clearing skies will allow larger
diurnal temperature ranges, with temps just on the high side of
normal both night and day.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 225 AM EDT May 14 2012

Upper air pattern late Tuesday will feature a robust 500mb ridge and
quite warm temperatures across the northern Rockies and the Central
Plains. A brief transitory trough will scoot across the eastern
Great Lakes late Tuesday before ridging and warming temperatures
arrive by Friday.

Weak northwest flow aloft and subsidence in the wake of troughing
east of the Appalachians will bring warmer and drier air to the
Lower Ohio Valley for Tuesday night and Wednesday. With light winds
and likely clear skies early Wednesday, some fog may develop during
the early morning hours. Under mostly sunny skies, expect
Wednesday`s highs to reach the mid 70s to around 80.

High pressure of Canadian origin will build across the Upper Midwest
early Wednesday. The GFS and the NAM handle the southern penetration
of this boundary differently, the more aggressive GFS does bring
this boundary just south of the Ohio River late Wednesday, with a
shift to light northerly winds while hinting at some potential
isolated thunderstorms across southern Indiana late Wednesday.
Prefer the drier, weaker NAM, which washes out the boundary across
central Indiana. Will leave Wednesday night dry.

Both the GFS and especially the ECMWF hint at the development of a
slow moving coastal low off the Carolinas Thursday through Saturday.
While some sort of residual troughiness lingers off the east coast,
ridging will build over Commonwealth and will linger through the
weekend.

Expect a warm and sunny period Thursday through Sunday with
temperatures gradually warming into the mid 80s by the weekend.
Initially, an lobe of surface high pressure extending southwest from
New England will keep winds practically calm or light easterly
through Friday. This will keep a bit of a lid on our warmup.
However, with the surface ridge moving east by Saturday, light south
winds will develop and allow highs to warm into the mid 80s by
Saturday.

A cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Monday.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 715 AM EDT Mon May 14 2012

Weakening inverted surface trough lingering over Kentucky, with the
upper trough also hanging back in the Ohio Valley. Precip now
concentrated near LEX, and will be a close call whether it is out of
there by the valid time of the TAF. Otherwise a large area of
stratus covers most of southern Indiana and almost the entire state
of Kentucky, and the TAFs will hinge mostly on the evolution of that
cloud deck today.

Upper trof will be slow to exit and the moisture is still quite
deep, so expect the improvement in ceilings to be slow. However,
confidence is fairly high that it will eventually happen due to high
May sun angle. This forecast shows all three sites breaking out of
the IFR/fuel-alternate MVFR around midday, and improving to VFR if
only just barely.

Steep lapse rates and lingering upper trofiness will help trigger
showers this afternoon. LEX has the best chance of getting rained
on, but for now will limit the mention to VCSH at BWG and LEX. SDF
actually has the best chance of thunder as it will be warmer, but
that is still too low of a chance to put in the TAF. Confidence is
even too low to put in precip at this time.

Light NNE winds thru the period, with conditions finally improving
to VFR by early evening. Beyond that the main concern is fog Tuesday
morning. Wet ground and temps progged to get very close to the
afternoon dewpoint tend to favor fog formation. Went with MVFR
visibility toward daybreak Tuesday in BWG and LEX. Will take more of
a wait-and-see attitude regarding SDF in the heat island.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........MJP
Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........RAS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 141446
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1046 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS DEPARTED EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ONLY
SOME PESKY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA.
EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CROSSING
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND THIS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THIS SHOULD HELP DEVELOP WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THUS...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...TO THE NORTH...THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY
OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE PART OF THE DAY. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES AND FORECAST WILL BE OUT SOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

MAINLY FRESHENED THE HOURLY TRENDS. THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF
FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST HOUR. PRECIPITATION THAT
STARTED OUT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS HELD TOGETHER AND EVEN
EXPANDED SOMEWHAT AS IT PIVOTED TO THE NORTHEAST. DID INCREASE POPS A
BIT EARLIER IN THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALIGNED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FUNNELING UP THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH RAIN UP
UNTIL THIS RECENT CONVECTION MOVED IN...HOWEVER MAY NEED TO
EVENTUALLY HOIST A NUISANCE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
IF ENOUGH TRAINING OCCURS. RIGHT NOW...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AXIS IS TRYING TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.
EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY BY MID-MORNING...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH EASES OFF TO THE
EAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS STILL LOOK PROBABLE TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS LINGERING ALONG WITH SOME HEATING.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY...TAKING
THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

EARLY IN THE PERIOD A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE EXITING TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH
GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON
WED INTO WED EVENING...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
IN ITS WAKE. THE SFC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
THE WEEKEND...BUT IT ALONG WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE GENERALLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WILL DOMINATE.

AT THIS POINT...THE MIDWEEK SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS IT PASSES AS IT WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL AND
SFC RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY LEAVE
THE REGION CAPPED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. A VERY ISOLATED POP UP CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING NEAR THE TN OR VA
BORDERS FROM FRI ON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
EVEN INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

EXPECT IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL
RETURN OF CONVECTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. MVFR STRATOCU WILL
THEN POSSIBLY LIFT TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY...WITH THE THREAT OF FOG OR
LOW STRATUS BUILDING BACK IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DEPENDING
UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN