000
FXUS63 KGRR 210501
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
100 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD HAVE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CONTINUE IN PROGRESS NEAR TO WEST OF US-131 THIS
EVENING. NO SEVERE WX HAS BEEN REPORTED OR IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED HAIL TO HALF INCH IN DIAMETER OR
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS INTO THE 45 TO 57 MPH RANGE DUE TO STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z DUE TO
CONTINUED LOSS OF INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND POST FRONT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM IS COVERAGE OF LAKE BREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING AND TIMING ARRIVAL OF PRE FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE HAS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO FIRE UP SOME ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING. MEANWHILE...STORMS FIRING UP IN
WISCONSIN ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FORM A
SOLID LIKE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02Z.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC
HEATING AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
THIS EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. MOISTURE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE BEST LIFT MISSES US TO
THE NORTH...SO SCATTERED POPS SHOULD COVER THINGS FOR MONDAY. WEAK
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT POPS SHOULD BE LIMITED
AS SFC HIGH ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS DURING MID WEEK.
THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE PERIOD WILL COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK
WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
CONTINUES THE MODEL TREND OF BEING SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN THAN THE
GFS. HOWEVER...IT IS A BIT QUICKER THAN FRIDAY/S RUN. ALTHOUGH
SHEAR IS LOW...MODERATE INSTABILITY LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
THE ECMWF FROPA DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
WE/LL SEE TSRA IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WE/LL SEE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE STATE BEFORE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS LIFTING NORTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WE/LL KEEP A SLGHT CHC TSRA IN
FOR FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO JUST RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT BUT
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WE EXPECT MVFR CIGS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID TO LATE
AFTN THRU 06Z TUE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FOUR FEET. DECIDED NOT TO GO
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW AS CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

QPF TONIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
AFFECT RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO

000
FXUS63 KAPX 210424
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1224 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS DRAPED ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING SOME HEADWAY TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE HOT AIR OUT AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH MORE LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

JUST AS I SENT THE LAST UPDATE...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NW
LOWER GOT RATHER UPPITY...WITH SPORADIC LARGE HAIL A BIT EAST OF
GD TRAV BAY. THINGS HAVE ONCE AGAIN CALMED DOWN A LITTLE...AND
OUTFLOW AIR COVER JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
POINT. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT PROGRESSION OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MAE INROADS
INTO FRANKFORT/MANISTEE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FORECAST TIME HAS HAD TO COMPETE WITH RADAR TIME THIS EVENING.
GRIDS CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED WITH CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT ON RADAR MOVING AWAY FROM MORE-
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY...EAST OF BEAVER ISL AND ESPECIALLY NEARING
LAKE CITY/KALKASKA. SAID ACTIVITY IS LARGELY BEHAVING...WITH GUSTS
OF AROUND 35 MPH...AND NO HAIL REPORTS. COLD FRONT IS TRAILING THE
MAIN ACTIVITY...AND IS JUST ABOUT ENTERING WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX/SKY COVER GRIDS TO END POSSIBILITY OF POP-UP
STORMS. ONSET OF ORGANIZED PRECIP THREAT FROM THE SSW IS EVIDENT
AFTER 9PM. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT SVR
WILL BE A CHALLENGE ON THE DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING/INSTABILITY CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE 850MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO THE
LOWER TEENS AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO WELL OVER AN INCH...I HAVE
CONCERNS ON THE OVERALL EXTENT OF ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.  BEST
FORCING SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
DECREASING AMOUNTS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  STILL BELIEVE THAT AT
LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE LAKE OUT OF WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT.  BEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY LIKELY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST NORTH INTO EASTERN UPPER...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS PCPN
BASICALLY OUTRUNS THE BEST FORCING.  SO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST.  FROPA LATE TONIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
DELAYED COLD AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO 12Z...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE 50S.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND WILL RUN WITH RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA...AND
THIS IS LIKELY OUR WEATHER FOR MONDAY.  FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH POST FRONTAL.  TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER MINNESOTA
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ALTHOUGH WE LIKELY WON/T BE THAT
CHILLY...WE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.  HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS EAST OF I-75...WITH POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES OVER
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY ALONG/JUST BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...QUIET AND SEASONABLE STRETCH OF
WEATHER AS LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IN ADVANCE OF PLENTIFUL WESTERN ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. FAIRLY DRY PROFILES (PWATS DOWN LESS
THAN A HALF INCH) AND SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING OVERHEAD ARGUE FOR A
DRY FORECAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COULD BE A DECENTLY CHILLY MORNING FOR THE INLAND COLD SPOTS
TUESDAY MORNING AS INITIAL DRY PUSH ARRIVES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALREADY HINTING THAT THE "ICE BOX" LOCALES MAY END
UP IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S...AND THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...A GREAT DAY EXPECTED FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY (BENEATH
UPPER COOL POOL) GIVING WAY TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY
AS WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW CRANKS UP.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A BIT MORE TRICKY
FORECAST THAN EXPECTED THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH MAIN CONCERNS
HINGING ON DEGREE OF WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL
BACKING AWAY FROM THE EXTREME WARMTH SHOWN THE PAST FEW DAYS...
COURTESY OF LEAD SHORTWAVE LATER THURSDAY HELPING BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGING BEFORE IT CAN BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHERN LAKES. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH
DEEPER AND MORE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...FAVORING A MORE LATITUDINAL VERSUS MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT TO WHAT SHOULD STILL BE SOME IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
STATES.

EVEN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE STRONGLY TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...
FAVORING A MORE FLATTENED RIDGING SITUATION THIS FAR NORTH. IT WILL
STILL BE WARM FOR SURE...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS WARM AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT. ALSO...GIVEN THE SETUP...WITH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE JUST
UPSTREAM INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST (ON THE EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING)...WE
WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
DROPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN A RATHER TYPICAL
MCS PATTERN. THIS COULD BE SOME GOOD NEWS IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
POTENTIAL (WHICH WE COULD CERTAINLY USE)...THOUGH SADLY FOR THE HEAT
LOVERS IT MAY WELL COME AT THE EXPENSE OF HOT WEATHER. THE NEW
WEEKEND FORECAST WILL INTRODUCE SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS LOWER HIGHS BACK THROUGH THE 70S OR LOWER 80S
(STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). WITH ALL OF THAT
SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PATTERN THAT
FAR OUT DOES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION TO SEND SOME VERY WARM WEATHER BACK
OUR WAY. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND CIG RESTRICTIONS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

SHRA TSRA ADVANCING NNE-WARD FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI...AND WILL
THREATEN TVC/MBL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...AND PLN/APN
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. A DIRECT HIT FROM A TSRA WOULD OF COURSE
PRODUCE BRIEF BUT VERY LOW CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...HAVE CARRIED TSRA
OUTRIGHT ONLY AT MBL...AMENDED TAFS ARE LIKELY AS PRECIP GETS CLOSER.

LOW CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESSION FROM WI.
COULD PERHAPS BE IFR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT FOR NOW AM CARRYING LOW-END MVFR AS PREVAILING
CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE TO HIGH-END MVFR DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

UPDATE...BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED EARLIER FOR
WHITEFISH BAY AND MANISTEE-PT BETSIE DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
MANISTEE HARBOR HAD A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.  COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.  A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA OVER WHITEFISH BAY
AND LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ON MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JK

000
FXUS63 KDTX 210400
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1200 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALIGNED ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL
NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...COVERAGE
WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS NOCTURNAL COOLING CONTINUES...LEAVING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AS THIS MOISTURE
WORKS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN...BUT DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
HOLD THROUGH THIS TIME. TERMINALS WILL LIKELY RESIDE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF ANY GREATER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LIKELY FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONING ONCE
MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES. THIS UNCERTAINTY
WILL PRECLUDE A SPECIFIC THUNDER MENTION. SOUTHERLY WIND EARLY
WILL VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

* VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA VERY EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
SURFACE REFLECTION FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TONIGHT
PERIOD...PUSHING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO FAR WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY 6Z. MEANWHILE...MODEST MIDLEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS
OCCURRING FROM THE SOUTH...OUT OF INDIANA. THE MODELS HAVE RESOLVED A
MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT DOES ALIGN WELL WITH THE AGITATED CU
STREET/ZONE OF ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A LINE FROM
ELKHART/GOSHEN/KAZO. SO...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
INITIAL PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL WANE...WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LARGELY STALLING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT IN DEEP PARALLEL MEAN FLOW. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN
REQUIRE THE WESTERLY PUSH FROM THE LOW-MIDLEVEL COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ARRIVE FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. EARLY
SHOWER/TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS HARMLESSLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
IN THE MEAN FLOW.

MODELS ARE NOISY WITH QPF/MOISTURE FIELDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...KEYING OFF OF SOME INSTABILITY
MAXIMUMS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.. OVERALL...FORCING/TRIGGER WILL
BE LACKING TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIPITATION GENERATION PRIOR TO 12Z.
THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR SUB 5KFT...WITH VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE RESIDING ABOVE 700MB WHERE SOME WEAK/MODES LAPSE RATES
RESIDE. A LOW CHANCE POPS OR THE FAR WESTERN CWA WILL SUFFICE. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO APPROXIMATELY 60 DEGREES FOR MOST
AREAS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

THE COLD FRONT NOW ROTATING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL PUSH ACROSS SE MI
ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS. THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL HEATING TO LEAD TO MODEST
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SUGGEST 0-1KM ML CAPE EXCEEDED 1200 J/KG
FROM METRO DETROIT UP INTO THE THUMB BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK.
HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW SOME TIGHTENING OF THE
FRONTAL CIRCULATION FROM THE SFC UP TO 925MB. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
NARROW AXIS OF DECENT MOISTURE /PWAT UP TO 1.3 INCHES/ ALONG THE
FRONT. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MON...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE GREATER DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND LIKELY A HEALTHY STRATUS DECK IN THE WAKE OF
THE SFC FRONT AS THE COOL AIR UNDERCUTS THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND FLINT AREAS. READINGS NEAR THE ONTARIO
BORDER HOWEVER MAY MAKE A RUN AT 80 IF THERE IS ENOUGH SOLAR
INSOLATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WED OR THURS AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL COOL AIR AND STRONG
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON TUESDAY WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MIXING
POTENTIAL...SUPPORTING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WED INTO
THURS...SENDING TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

AN IMPRESSIVE 140-160KT UPPER JET DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL HELP CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHICH EVENTUALLY LEADS TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS HAVE TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN ONTARIO IN THE THURS-FRI
TIME FRAME. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THEREFORE IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE EASTERN US UPPER
RIDGE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /ARGUING FOR COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND/. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
JET OVER THE PACIFIC...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THIS
ARGUES FOR A FARTHER NORTH EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SOLUTION DOES HOWEVER INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TO BE IMPACTED BY
FREQUENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. THE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS
STAGE ARGUES FOR MAINTAINING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FRI THROUGH SUN
AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL UNIFORMLY TURN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT BY
MONDAY EVENING. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THEREFORE...THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MODEST WITH NORTHWESTERLIES POSSIBLE ATTAINING 15-20 KNOTS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KMQT 210357
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1157 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 15Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE STEADILY
TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RADAR DATA ARE SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES AS
WELL.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION INTO A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONLY REAL
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE U.P. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE AT ROUGHLY 800 J/KG IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE WEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT MARQUETTE SOUTH TO ESCANABA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO PROGGED TO
BE AT ROUGHLY 35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL AS HAIL
GROWTH. STORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL DUE TO
DRY MID LEVEL AIR BEING ENTRAINED. THIS SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE
D-CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI
BORDER. THIS ALONG WITH STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS TO THE
NORTHWEST ALL FAVOR THESE STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS. FOR THE EAST HALF
OF UPPER MI...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE DIMINISHED FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS. FIRST OFF CAPE VALUES ARE DIMINISHED OVER THESE AREA THANKS
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS FLOWING IN OFF OF LAKE MI...HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE SECOND REASON IS DUE
TO LOSS OF INSOLATION AS THE STORMS SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.


TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

TRICKY FORECAST FOR WIND AND TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING.

AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...EXPECT POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS
LONGER THAN THE SURFACE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH ONLY AN ADDITIONAL 1 OR 2 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER TO THE
EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA. BY
MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO MUCH OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT MUCH THE DAY. MAIN ISSUE DURING THE DAY WILL BE LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES WHEN MIXING DOWN FROM 850MB TO THE SURFACE. HUMIDTY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S OVER THE WESTERN U.P.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EFFECTS OF TODAYS PRECIPITATION ON
AFTERNOON RH VALUES MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. 00Z TUE WITH
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH WED WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE WEST AS WELL. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO STAYING OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH
WED. LOOKING AT ISENTROPIC SURFACES...GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SOME
MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MON NIGHT AND THINK THERE COULD
BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO NOT
FALL AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THIS REASON...WENT PATCHY
FROST INSTEAD. STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE IN THE AREA AND THIS WILL LAST INTO WED...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
WEST CLOSER TO THE NEXT FRONT THAT SETS UP WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS REMAINING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FOR TEMPERATURES.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING OVER
THE EAST WITH T.S. ALBERTO OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES 12Z WED.
PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z THU. ECMWF TAKES THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE GETS
FLATTENED BY THIS TROUGH AND AREA GETS INTO THE RING OF FIRE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO BY BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE SERN U.S. 12Z SAT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WILL STALL OUT
AND BECOME AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA SEPARATING
A VERY WARM AIRMASS FROM A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. WE WILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE AIRMASS AND WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH...CANNOT
RULE OUT RING OF FIRE CONVECTION AND CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
GOOD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD NOW. BACKED OFF ON THE WARMING FOR
TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. AM NOT AS
CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS RIDGE BREAKING DOWN THOUGH AND STILL NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONGER AND WE WILL GET BACK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT FOR THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WAS SHOWING VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
STARTING 12Z SAT...WENT TO THE COOLER AND FLATTER RIDGE
SOLUTION...SO THERE IS NOT AS MUCH CONTINUITY WITH THIS SOLUTION AS
WITH THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS NEWER
SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN OVER THE LAKE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE STRATUS AND ANY REMAINING PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES.
NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT COULD GET
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX AND KSAW...WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KEC

000
FXUS63 KAPX 210227
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1027 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS DRAPED ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING SOME HEADWAY TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE HOT AIR OUT AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH MORE LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FORECAST TIME HAS HAD TO COMPETE WITH RADAR TIME THIS EVENING.
GRIDS CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED WITH CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT ON RADAR MOVING AWAY FROM MORE-
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY...EAST OF BEAVER ISL AND ESPECIALLY NEARING
LAKE CITY/KALKASKA. SAID ACTIVITY IS LARGELY BEHAVING...WITH GUSTS
OF AROUND 35 MPH...AND NO HAIL REPORTS. COLD FRONT IS TRAILING THE
MAIN ACTIVITY...AND IS JUST ABOUT ENTERING WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX/SKY COVER GRIDS TO END POSSIBILITY OF POP-UP
STORMS. ONSET OF ORGANIZED PRECIP THREAT FROM THE SSW IS EVIDENT
AFTER 9PM. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT SVR
WILL BE A CHALLENGE ON THE DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING/INSTABILITY CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE 850MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO THE
LOWER TEENS AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO WELL OVER AN INCH...I HAVE
CONCERNS ON THE OVERALL EXTENT OF ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.  BEST
FORCING SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
DECREASING AMOUNTS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  STILL BELIEVE THAT AT
LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE LAKE OUT OF WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT.  BEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY LIKELY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST NORTH INTO EASTERN UPPER...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS PCPN
BASICALLY OUTRUNS THE BEST FORCING.  SO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST.  FROPA LATE TONIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
DELAYED COLD AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO 12Z...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE 50S.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND WILL RUN WITH RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA...AND
THIS IS LIKELY OUR WEATHER FOR MONDAY.  FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH POST FRONTAL.  TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER MINNESOTA
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ALTHOUGH WE LIKELY WON/T BE THAT
CHILLY...WE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.  HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS EAST OF I-75...WITH POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES OVER
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY ALONG/JUST BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...QUIET AND SEASONABLE STRETCH OF
WEATHER AS LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IN ADVANCE OF PLENTIFUL WESTERN ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. FAIRLY DRY PROFILES (PWATS DOWN LESS
THAN A HALF INCH) AND SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING OVERHEAD ARGUE FOR A
DRY FORECAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COULD BE A DECENTLY CHILLY MORNING FOR THE INLAND COLD SPOTS
TUESDAY MORNING AS INITIAL DRY PUSH ARRIVES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALREADY HINTING THAT THE "ICE BOX" LOCALES MAY END
UP IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S...AND THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...A GREAT DAY EXPECTED FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY (BENEATH
UPPER COOL POOL) GIVING WAY TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY
AS WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW CRANKS UP.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A BIT MORE TRICKY
FORECAST THAN EXPECTED THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH MAIN CONCERNS
HINGING ON DEGREE OF WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL
BACKING AWAY FROM THE EXTREME WARMTH SHOWN THE PAST FEW DAYS...
COURTESY OF LEAD SHORTWAVE LATER THURSDAY HELPING BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGING BEFORE IT CAN BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHERN LAKES. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH
DEEPER AND MORE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...FAVORING A MORE LATITUDINAL VERSUS MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT TO WHAT SHOULD STILL BE SOME IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
STATES.

EVEN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE STRONGLY TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...
FAVORING A MORE FLATTENED RIDGING SITUATION THIS FAR NORTH. IT WILL
STILL BE WARM FOR SURE...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS WARM AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT. ALSO...GIVEN THE SETUP...WITH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE JUST
UPSTREAM INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST (ON THE EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING)...WE
WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
DROPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN A RATHER TYPICAL
MCS PATTERN. THIS COULD BE SOME GOOD NEWS IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
POTENTIAL (WHICH WE COULD CERTAINLY USE)...THOUGH SADLY FOR THE HEAT
LOVERS IT MAY WELL COME AT THE EXPENSE OF HOT WEATHER. THE NEW
WEEKEND FORECAST WILL INTRODUCE SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS LOWER HIGHS BACK THROUGH THE 70S OR LOWER 80S
(STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). WITH ALL OF THAT
SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PATTERN THAT
FAR OUT DOES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION TO SEND SOME VERY WARM WEATHER BACK
OUR WAY. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND CIG RESTRICTIONS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

SHRA TSRA ADVANCING NNE-WARD FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI...AND WILL
THREATEN TVC/MBL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...AND PLN/APN
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. A DIRECT HIT FROM A TSRA WOULD OF COURSE
PRODUCE BRIEF BUT VERY LOW CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...HAVE CARRIED TSRA
OUTRIGHT ONLY AT MBL...AMENDED TAFS ARE LIKELY AS PRECIP GETS CLOSER.

LOW CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESSION FROM WI.
COULD PERHAPS BE IFR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT FOR NOW AM CARRYING LOW-END MVFR AS PREVAILING
CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE TO HIGH-END MVFR DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

UPDATE...BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED EARLIER FOR
WHITEFISH BAY AND MANISTEE-PT BETSIE DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
MANISTEE HARBOR HAD A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.  COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.  A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA OVER WHITEFISH BAY
AND LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ON MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JK

000
FXUS63 KMQT 210219
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1019 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 15Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE STEADILY
TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RADAR DATA ARE SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES AS
WELL.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION INTO A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONLY REAL
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE U.P. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE AT ROUGHLY 800 J/KG IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE WEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT MARQUETTE SOUTH TO ESCANABA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO PROGGED TO
BE AT ROUGHLY 35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL AS HAIL
GROWTH. STORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL DUE TO
DRY MID LEVEL AIR BEING ENTRAINED. THIS SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE
D-CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI
BORDER. THIS ALONG WITH STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS TO THE
NORTHWEST ALL FAVOR THESE STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS. FOR THE EAST HALF
OF UPPER MI...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE DIMINISHED FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS. FIRST OFF CAPE VALUES ARE DIMINISHED OVER THESE AREA THANKS
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS FLOWING IN OFF OF LAKE MI...HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE SECOND REASON IS DUE
TO LOSS OF INSOLATION AS THE STORMS SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.


TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

TRICKY FORECAST FOR WIND AND TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING.

AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...EXPECT POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS
LONGER THAN THE SURFACE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH ONLY AN ADDITIONAL 1 OR 2 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER TO THE
EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA. BY
MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO MUCH OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT MUCH THE DAY. MAIN ISSUE DURING THE DAY WILL BE LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES WHEN MIXING DOWN FROM 850MB TO THE SURFACE. HUMIDTY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S OVER THE WESTERN U.P.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EFFECTS OF TODAYS PRECIPITATION ON
AFTERNOON RH VALUES MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. 00Z TUE WITH
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH WED WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE WEST AS WELL. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO STAYING OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH
WED. LOOKING AT ISENTROPIC SURFACES...GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SOME
MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MON NIGHT AND THINK THERE COULD
BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO NOT
FALL AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THIS REASON...WENT PATCHY
FROST INSTEAD. STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE IN THE AREA AND THIS WILL LAST INTO WED...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
WEST CLOSER TO THE NEXT FRONT THAT SETS UP WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS REMAINING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FOR TEMPERATURES.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING OVER
THE EAST WITH T.S. ALBERTO OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES 12Z WED.
PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z THU. ECMWF TAKES THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE GETS
FLATTENED BY THIS TROUGH AND AREA GETS INTO THE RING OF FIRE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO BY BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE SERN U.S. 12Z SAT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WILL STALL OUT
AND BECOME AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA SEPARATING
A VERY WARM AIRMASS FROM A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. WE WILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE AIRMASS AND WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH...CANNOT
RULE OUT RING OF FIRE CONVECTION AND CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
GOOD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD NOW. BACKED OFF ON THE WARMING FOR
TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. AM NOT AS
CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS RIDGE BREAKING DOWN THOUGH AND STILL NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONGER AND WE WILL GET BACK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT FOR THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WAS SHOWING VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
STARTING 12Z SAT...WENT TO THE COOLER AND FLATTER RIDGE
SOLUTION...SO THERE IS NOT AS MUCH CONTINUITY WITH THIS SOLUTION AS
WITH THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS NEWER
SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS N-NW WINDS
IN ITS WAKE WILL BRING IN SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES.
JUST SOME ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS OVER KIWD AND KCMX IN STRATUS/FOG WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR BY EARLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
CONDITIONS AT KSAW MAY LOWER TO ALT LANDING MINS THIS EVENING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN TO VFR MON MORNING AS DRIER
AIR AND HIGH PRES RDG WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT COULD GET GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX AND
KSAW...WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KEC

000
FXUS63 KGRR 210122
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
649 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD HAVE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CONTINUE IN PROGRESS NEAR TO WEST OF US-131 THIS
EVENING. NO SEVERE WX HAS BEEN REPORTED OR IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED HAIL TO HALF INCH IN DIAMETER OR
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS INTO THE 45 TO 57 MPH RANGE DUE TO STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z DUE TO
CONTINUED LOSS OF INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND POST FRONT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM IS COVERAGE OF LAKE BREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING AND TIMING ARRIVAL OF PRE FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE HAS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO FIRE UP SOME ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING. MEANWHILE...STORMS FIRING UP IN
WISCONSIN ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FORM A
SOLID LIKE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02Z.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC
HEATING AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
THIS EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. MOISTURE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE BEST LIFT MISSES US TO
THE NORTH...SO SCATTERED POPS SHOULD COVER THINGS FOR MONDAY. WEAK
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT POPS SHOULD BE LIMITED
AS SFC HIGH ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS DURING MID WEEK.
THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE PERIOD WILL COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK
WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
CONTINUES THE MODEL TREND OF BEING SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN THAN THE
GFS. HOWEVER...IT IS A BIT QUICKER THAN FRIDAY/S RUN. ALTHOUGH
SHEAR IS LOW...MODERATE INSTABILITY LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
THE ECMWF FROPA DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
WE/LL SEE TSRA IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WE/LL SEE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE STATE BEFORE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS LIFTING NORTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WE/LL KEEP A SLGHT CHC TSRA IN
FOR FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOOPED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IS HEADING EAST (STORMS MOVING NORTH
NORTHEAST). THIS AREA OF STORMS IS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL
COME THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY. THE AREA OF STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
EXPECT LOCALLY MVFR VSBY IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVEN AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES
THROUGH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY. THE SYSTEM STALLS JUST EAST OF MICHIGAN AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL THEN HAVE A HARD TIME PULLING OUT OF THE AREA EAST
OF US-131.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FOUR FEET. DECIDED NOT TO GO
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW AS CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

QPF TONIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
AFFECT RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO

000
FXUS63 KAPX 202341
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
741 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS DRAPED ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING SOME HEADWAY TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE HOT AIR OUT AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH MORE LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX/SKY COVER GRIDS TO END POSSIBILITY OF POP-UP
STORMS. ONSET OF ORGANIZED PRECIP THREAT FROM THE SSW IS EVIDENT
AFTER 9PM. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT SVR
WILL BE A CHALLENGE ON THE DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING/INSTABILITY CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE 850MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO THE
LOWER TEENS AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO WELL OVER AN INCH...I HAVE
CONCERNS ON THE OVERALL EXTENT OF ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.  BEST
FORCING SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
DECREASING AMOUNTS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  STILL BELIEVE THAT AT
LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE LAKE OUT OF WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT.  BEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY LIKELY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST NORTH INTO EASTERN UPPER...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS PCPN
BASICALLY OUTRUNS THE BEST FORCING.  SO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST.  FROPA LATE TONIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
DELAYED COLD AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO 12Z...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE 50S.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND WILL RUN WITH RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA...AND
THIS IS LIKELY OUR WEATHER FOR MONDAY.  FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH POST FRONTAL.  TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER MINNESOTA
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ALTHOUGH WE LIKELY WON/T BE THAT
CHILLY...WE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.  HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS EAST OF I-75...WITH POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES OVER
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY ALONG/JUST BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...QUIET AND SEASONABLE STRETCH OF
WEATHER AS LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IN ADVANCE OF PLENTIFUL WESTERN ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. FAIRLY DRY PROFILES (PWATS DOWN LESS
THAN A HALF INCH) AND SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING OVERHEAD ARGUE FOR A
DRY FORECAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COULD BE A DECENTLY CHILLY MORNING FOR THE INLAND COLD SPOTS
TUESDAY MORNING AS INITIAL DRY PUSH ARRIVES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALREADY HINTING THAT THE "ICE BOX" LOCALES MAY END
UP IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S...AND THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...A GREAT DAY EXPECTED FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY (BENEATH
UPPER COOL POOL) GIVING WAY TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY
AS WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW CRANKS UP.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A BIT MORE TRICKY
FORECAST THAN EXPECTED THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH MAIN CONCERNS
HINGING ON DEGREE OF WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL
BACKING AWAY FROM THE EXTREME WARMTH SHOWN THE PAST FEW DAYS...
COURTESY OF LEAD SHORTWAVE LATER THURSDAY HELPING BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGING BEFORE IT CAN BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHERN LAKES. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH
DEEPER AND MORE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...FAVORING A MORE LATITUDINAL VERSUS MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT TO WHAT SHOULD STILL BE SOME IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
STATES.

EVEN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE STRONGLY TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...
FAVORING A MORE FLATTENED RIDGING SITUATION THIS FAR NORTH. IT WILL
STILL BE WARM FOR SURE...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS WARM AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT. ALSO...GIVEN THE SETUP...WITH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE JUST
UPSTREAM INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST (ON THE EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING)...WE
WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
DROPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN A RATHER TYPICAL
MCS PATTERN. THIS COULD BE SOME GOOD NEWS IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
POTENTIAL (WHICH WE COULD CERTAINLY USE)...THOUGH SADLY FOR THE HEAT
LOVERS IT MAY WELL COME AT THE EXPENSE OF HOT WEATHER. THE NEW
WEEKEND FORECAST WILL INTRODUCE SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS LOWER HIGHS BACK THROUGH THE 70S OR LOWER 80S
(STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). WITH ALL OF THAT
SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PATTERN THAT
FAR OUT DOES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION TO SEND SOME VERY WARM WEATHER BACK
OUR WAY. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND CIG RESTRICTIONS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

SHRA TSRA ADVANCING NNE-WARD FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI...AND WILL
THREATEN TVC/MBL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...AND PLN/APN
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. A DIRECT HIT FROM A TSRA WOULD OF COURSE
PRODUCE BRIEF BUT VERY LOW CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...HAVE CARRIED TSRA
OUTRIGHT ONLY AT MBL...AMENDED TAFS ARE LIKELY AS PRECIP GETS CLOSER.

LOW CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESSION FROM WI.
COULD PERHAPS BE IFR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT FOR NOW AM CARRYING LOW-END MVFR AS PREVAILING
CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE TO HIGH-END MVFR DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

UPDATE...BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED EARLIER FOR
WHITEFISH BAY AND MANISTEE-PT BETSIE DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
MANISTEE HARBOR HAD A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.  COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.  A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA OVER WHITEFISH BAY
AND LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ON MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ018-023-024-
     029-030-035-036.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JK

000
FXUS63 KDTX 202302
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WESTERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING FIRM THIS EVENING
WILL EASE EASTWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA.  DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BRING
VFR/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN AS MIXING/HEATING CEASES POST-SUNSET. DEEPER AXIS OF
MOISTURE WILL ALIGN ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLIDES THROUGH ON
MONDAY. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILING POSSIBLE
TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO EXISTS FOR COVERAGE TO REMAIN
WIDELY SCATTERED EARLY...BEFORE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
COVERAGE TO BLOSSOM BY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAVE ALL TERMINALS ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS
POINT...WILL ALLOW FOR A SHRA MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT REFRAIN FROM ANY THUNDER INCLUSION. COOLER AIR
WORKING IN ON THE DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING AN EXPANSION IN LOWER VFR/POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 5000 FT MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

* VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA VERY EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
SURFACE REFLECTION FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TONIGHT
PERIOD...PUSHING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO FAR WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY 6Z. MEANWHILE...MODEST MIDLEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS
OCCURRING FROM THE SOUTH...OUT OF INDIANA. THE MODELS HAVE RESOLVED A
MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT DOES ALIGN WELL WITH THE AGITATED CU
STREET/ZONE OF ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A LINE FROM
ELKHART/GOSHEN/KAZO. SO...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
INITIAL PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL WANE...WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LARGELY STALLING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT IN DEEP PARALLEL MEAN FLOW. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN
REQUIRE THE WESTERLY PUSH FROM THE LOW-MIDLEVEL COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ARRIVE FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. EARLY
SHOWER/TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS HARMLESSLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
IN THE MEAN FLOW.

MODELS ARE NOISY WITH QPF/MOISTURE FIELDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...KEYING OFF OF SOME INSTABILITY
MAXIMUMS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.. OVERALL...FORCING/TRIGGER WILL
BE LACKING TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIPITATION GENERATION PRIOR TO 12Z.
THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR SUB 5KFT...WITH VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE RESIDING ABOVE 700MB WHERE SOME WEAK/MODES LAPSE RATES
RESIDE. A LOW CHANCE POPS OR THE FAR WESTERN CWA WILL SUFFICE. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO APPROXIMATELY 60 DEGREES FOR MOST
AREAS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

THE COLD FRONT NOW ROTATING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL PUSH ACROSS SE MI
ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS. THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL HEATING TO LEAD TO MODEST
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SUGGEST 0-1KM ML CAPE EXCEEDED 1200 J/KG
FROM METRO DETROIT UP INTO THE THUMB BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK.
HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW SOME TIGHTENING OF THE
FRONTAL CIRCULATION FROM THE SFC UP TO 925MB. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
NARROW AXIS OF DECENT MOISTURE /PWAT UP TO 1.3 INCHES/ ALONG THE
FRONT. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MON...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE GREATER DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND LIKELY A HEALTHY STRATUS DECK IN THE WAKE OF
THE SFC FRONT AS THE COOL AIR UNDERCUTS THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND FLINT AREAS. READINGS NEAR THE ONTARIO
BORDER HOWEVER MAY MAKE A RUN AT 80 IF THERE IS ENOUGH SOLAR
INSOLATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WED OR THURS AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL COOL AIR AND STRONG
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON TUESDAY WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MIXING
POTENTIAL...SUPPORTING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WED INTO
THURS...SENDING TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

AN IMPRESSIVE 140-160KT UPPER JET DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL HELP CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHICH EVENTUALLY LEADS TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS HAVE TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN ONTARIO IN THE THURS-FRI
TIME FRAME. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THEREFORE IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE EASTERN US UPPER
RIDGE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /ARGUING FOR COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND/. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
JET OVER THE PACIFIC...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THIS
ARGUES FOR A FARTHER NORTH EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SOLUTION DOES HOWEVER INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TO BE IMPACTED BY
FREQUENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. THE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS
STAGE ARGUES FOR MAINTAINING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FRI THROUGH SUN
AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL UNIFORMLY TURN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT BY
MONDAY EVENING. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THEREFORE...THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MODEST WITH NORTHWESTERLIES POSSIBLE ATTAINING 15-20 KNOTS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KGRR 202249
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
649 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD HAVE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 521 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH OF PENTWATER THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND POST FRONT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM IS COVERAGE OF LAKE BREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING AND TIMING ARRIVAL OF PRE FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE HAS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO FIRE UP SOME ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING. MEANWHILE...STORMS FIRING UP IN
WISCONSIN ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FORM A
SOLID LIKE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02Z.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC
HEATING AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
THIS EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. MOISTURE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE BEST LIFT MISSES US TO
THE NORTH...SO SCATTERED POPS SHOULD COVER THINGS FOR MONDAY. WEAK
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT POPS SHOULD BE LIMITED
AS SFC HIGH ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS DURING MID WEEK.
THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE PERIOD WILL COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK
WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
CONTINUES THE MODEL TREND OF BEING SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN THAN THE
GFS. HOWEVER...IT IS A BIT QUICKER THAN FRIDAY/S RUN. ALTHOUGH
SHEAR IS LOW...MODERATE INSTABILITY LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
THE ECMWF FROPA DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
WE/LL SEE TSRA IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WE/LL SEE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE STATE BEFORE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS LIFTING NORTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WE/LL KEEP A SLGHT CHC TSRA IN
FOR FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOOPED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IS HEADING EAST (STORMS MOVING NORTH
NORTHEAST). THIS AREA OF STORMS IS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL
COME THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY. THE AREA OF STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
EXPECT LOCALLY MVFR VSBY IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVEN AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES
THROUGH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY. THE SYSTEM STALLS JUST EAST OF MICHIGAN AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL THEN HAVE A HARD TIME PULLING OUT OF THE AREA EAST
OF US-131.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FOUR FEET. DECIDED NOT TO GO
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW AS CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

QPF TONIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
AFFECT RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO

000
FXUS63 KGRR 202121
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
521 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD HAVE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 521 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH OF PENTWATER THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND POST FRONT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM IS COVERAGE OF LAKE BREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING AND TIMING ARRIVAL OF PRE FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE HAS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO FIRE UP SOME ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING. MEANWHILE...STORMS FIRING UP IN
WISCONSIN ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FORM A
SOLID LIKE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02Z.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC
HEATING AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
THIS EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. MOISTURE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE BEST LIFT MISSES US TO
THE NORTH...SO SCATTERED POPS SHOULD COVER THINGS FOR MONDAY. WEAK
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT POPS SHOULD BE LIMITED
AS SFC HIGH ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS DURING MID WEEK.
THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE PERIOD WILL COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK
WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
CONTINUES THE MODEL TREND OF BEING SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN THAN THE
GFS. HOWEVER...IT IS A BIT QUICKER THAN FRIDAY/S RUN. ALTHOUGH
SHEAR IS LOW...MODERATE INSTABILITY LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
THE ECMWF FROPA DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
WE/LL SEE TSRA IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WE/LL SEE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE STATE BEFORE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS LIFTING NORTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WE/LL KEEP A SLGHT CHC TSRA IN
FOR FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOME TOWERING CU GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BUT DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT MOST. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER
UNTIL AFTER 00Z AS STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. SO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TP PREVAIL THROUGH
EVENING THEN ISOLATED MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS MOVES IN.

SOME WIDESPREAD MVFR EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS LOWER MOISTURE
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY 06Z. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP AFTER 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FOUR FEET. DECIDED NOT TO GO
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW AS CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

QPF TONIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
AFFECT RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO

000
FXUS63 KMQT 202005
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
405 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 15Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE STEADILY
TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RADAR DATA ARE SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES AS
WELL.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION INTO A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONLY REAL
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE U.P. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE AT ROUGHLY 800 J/KG IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE WEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT MARQUETTE SOUTH TO ESCANABA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO PROGGED TO
BE AT ROUGHLY 35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL AS HAIL
GROWTH. STORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL DUE TO
DRY MID LEVEL AIR BEING ENTRAINED. THIS SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE
D-CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI
BORDER. THIS ALONG WITH STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS TO THE
NORTHWEST ALL FAVOR THESE STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS. FOR THE EAST HALF
OF UPPER MI...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE DIMINISHED FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS. FIRST OFF CAPE VALUES ARE DIMINISHED OVER THESE AREA THANKS
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS FLOWING IN OFF OF LAKE MI...HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE SECOND REASON IS DUE
TO LOSS OF INSOLATION AS THE STORMS SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.


TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

TRICKY FORECAST FOR WIND AND TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING.

AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...EXPECT POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS
LONGER THAN THE SURFACE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH ONLY AN ADDITIONAL 1 OR 2 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER TO THE
EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA. BY
MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO MUCH OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT MUCH THE DAY. MAIN ISSUE DURING THE DAY WILL BE LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES WHEN MIXING DOWN FROM 850MB TO THE SURFACE. HUMIDTY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S OVER THE WESTERN U.P.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EFFECTS OF TODAYS PRECIPITATION ON
AFTERNOON RH VALUES MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. 00Z TUE WITH
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH WED WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE WEST AS WELL. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO STAYING OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH
WED. LOOKING AT ISENTROPIC SURFACES...GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SOME
MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MON NIGHT AND THINK THERE COULD
BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO NOT
FALL AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THIS REASON...WENT PATCHY
FROST INSTEAD. STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE IN THE AREA AND THIS WILL LAST INTO WED...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
WEST CLOSER TO THE NEXT FRONT THAT SETS UP WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS REMAINING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FOR TEMPERATURES.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING OVER
THE EAST WITH T.S. ALBERTO OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES 12Z WED.
PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z THU. ECMWF TAKES THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE GETS
FLATTENED BY THIS TROUGH AND AREA GETS INTO THE RING OF FIRE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO BY BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE SERN U.S. 12Z SAT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WILL STALL OUT
AND BECOME AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA SEPARATING
A VERY WARM AIRMASS FROM A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. WE WILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE AIRMASS AND WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH...CANNOT
RULE OUT RING OF FIRE CONVECTION AND CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
GOOD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD NOW. BACKED OFF ON THE WARMING FOR
TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. AM NOT AS
CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS RIDGE BREAKING DOWN THOUGH AND STILL NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONGER AND WE WILL GET BACK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT FOR THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WAS SHOWING VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
STARTING 12Z SAT...WENT TO THE COOLER AND FLATTER RIDGE
SOLUTION...SO THERE IS NOT AS MUCH CONTINUITY WITH THIS SOLUTION AS
WITH THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS NEWER
SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER
THROUGH EACH TAF SITE ENDING BY LATE EVENING OVER NEAR IWD AND THE
REMAINING SITES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE AT EACH SITE WITH A FEW IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AS AND JUST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT
AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST GUSTING TO NEAR 22 KTS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
EXCEPT FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM RAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

000
FXUS63 KGRR 201950
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD HAVE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND POST FRONT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM IS COVERAGE OF LAKE BREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING AND TIMING ARRIVAL OF PRE FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE HAS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO FIRE UP SOME ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING. MEANWHILE...STORMS FIRING UP IN
WISCONSIN ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FORM A
SOLID LIKE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02Z.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC
HEATING AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
THIS EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. MOISTURE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE BEST LIFT MISSES US TO
THE NORTH...SO SCATTERED POPS SHOULD COVER THINGS FOR MONDAY. WEAK
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT POPS SHOULD BE LIMITED
AS SFC HIGH ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS DURING MID WEEK.
THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE PERIOD WILL COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK
WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
CONTINUES THE MODEL TREND OF BEING SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN THAN THE
GFS. HOWEVER...IT IS A BIT QUICKER THAN FRIDAY/S RUN. ALTHOUGH
SHEAR IS LOW...MODERATE INSTABILITY LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
THE ECMWF FROPA DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
WE/LL SEE TSRA IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WE/LL SEE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE STATE BEFORE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS LIFTING NORTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WE/LL KEEP A SLGHT CHC TSRA IN
FOR FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOME TOWERING CU GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BUT DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT MOST. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER
UNTIL AFTER 00Z AS STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. SO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TP PREVAIL THROUGH
EVENING THEN ISOLATED MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS MOVES IN.

SOME WIDESPREAD MVFR EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS LOWER MOISTURE
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY 06Z. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP AFTER 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES BUT WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FOUR FEET. DECIDED NOT TO GO
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW AS CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

QPF TONIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
AFFECT RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO

000
FXUS63 KDTX 201935
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA VERY EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
SURFACE REFLECTION FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TONIGHT
PERIOD...PUSHING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO FAR WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY 6Z. MEANWHILE...MODEST MIDLEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS
OCCURRING FROM THE SOUTH...OUT OF INDIANA. THE MODELS HAVE RESOLVED A
MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT DOES ALIGN WELL WITH THE AGITATED CU
STREET/ZONE OF ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A LINE FROM
ELKHART/GOSHEN/KAZO. SO...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
INITIAL PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL WANE...WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LARGELY STALLING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT IN DEEP PARALLEL MEAN FLOW. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN
REQUIRE THE WESTERLY PUSH FROM THE LOW-MIDLEVEL COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ARRIVE FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. EARLY
SHOWER/TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS HARMLESSLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
IN THE MEAN FLOW.

MODELS ARE NOISY WITH QPF/MOISTURE FIELDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...KEYING OFF OF SOME INSTABILITY
MAXIMUMS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.. OVERALL...FORCING/TRIGGER WILL
BE LACKING TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIPITATION GENERATION PRIOR TO 12Z.
THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR SUB 5KFT...WITH VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE RESIDING ABOVE 700MB WHERE SOME WEAK/MODES LAPSE RATES
RESIDE. A LOW CHANCE POPS OR THE FAR WESTERN CWA WILL SUFFICE. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO APPROXIMATELY 60 DEGREES FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

THE COLD FRONT NOW ROTATING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL PUSH ACROSS SE MI
ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS. THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL HEATING TO LEAD TO MODEST
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SUGGEST 0-1KM ML CAPE EXCEEDED 1200 J/KG
FROM METRO DETROIT UP INTO THE THUMB BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK.
HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW SOME TIGHTENING OF THE
FRONTAL CIRCULATION FROM THE SFC UP TO 925MB. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
NARROW AXIS OF DECENT MOISTURE /PWAT UP TO 1.3 INCHES/ ALONG THE
FRONT. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MON...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE GREATER DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND LIKELY A HEALTHY STRATUS DECK IN THE WAKE OF
THE SFC FRONT AS THE COOL AIR UNDERCUTS THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND FLINT AREAS. READINGS NEAR THE ONTARIO
BORDER HOWEVER MAY MAKE A RUN AT 80 IF THERE IS ENOUGH SOLAR
INSOLATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WED OR THURS AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL COOL AIR AND STRONG
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON TUESDAY WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MIXING
POTENTIAL...SUPPORTING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WED INTO
THURS...SENDING TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

AN IMPRESSIVE 140-160KT UPPER JET DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL HELP CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHICH EVENTUALLY LEADS TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS HAVE TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN ONTARIO IN THE THURS-FRI
TIME FRAME. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THEREFORE IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE EASTERN US UPPER
RIDGE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /ARGUING FOR COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND/. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
JET OVER THE PACIFIC...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THIS
ARGUES FOR A FARTHER NORTH EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SOLUTION DOES HOWEVER INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TO BE IMPACTED BY
FREQUENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. THE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS
STAGE ARGUES FOR MAINTAINING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FRI THROUGH SUN
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL UNIFORMLY TURN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT BY
MONDAY EVENING. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THEREFORE...THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MODEST WITH NORTHWESTERLIES POSSIBLE ATTAINING 15-20 KNOTS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 134 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

//DISCUSSION...

IN A HOLDING PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. A SIZABLE MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS TRACKING
EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF CANADA AND THE UNITED
STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL SHUTTLE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TERMINAL SITES ON MONDAY. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO
EXIST SURROUNDING THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL DEFER TO
A LATER UPDATE/ISSUANCE TO ADD ANY MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST. DID
TIME IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES - MID MORNING
TOMORROW WITH COOLER AIR/CAA INVERSION SETTLING IN.

THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE TODAY THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
GET GOING IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN-PARTICULARLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE REASON FOR THE AWARENESS IS SOME MODEST
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON THAT
MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...THE MOVEMENT OF THE CELLS IS
EXPECTED TO BE VIRTUALLY DUE NORTHWARD WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW.
THUS...THIS EARLY ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
THE TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE CIRRUS DEBRIS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KAPX 201927
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
327 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS DRAPED ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING SOME HEADWAY TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE HOT AIR OUT AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH MORE LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE 850MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO THE
LOWER TEENS AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO WELL OVER AN INCH...I HAVE
CONCERNS ON THE OVERALL EXTENT OF ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.  BEST
FORCING SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
DECREASING AMOUNTS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  STILL BELIEVE THAT AT
LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE LAKE OUT OF WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT.  BEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY LIKELY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST NORTH INTO EASTERN UPPER...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS PCPN
BASICALLY OUTRUNS THE BEST FORCING.  SO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST.  FROPA LATE TONIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
DELAYED COLD AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO 12Z...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE 50S.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND WILL RUN WITH RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA...AND
THIS IS LIKELY OUR WEATHER FOR MONDAY.  FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH POST FRONTAL.  TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER MINNESOTA
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ALTHOUGH WE LIKELY WON/T BE THAT
CHILLY...WE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.  HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS EAST OF I-75...WITH POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES OVER
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY ALONG/JUST BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...QUIET AND SEASONABLE STRETCH OF
WEATHER AS LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IN ADVANCE OF PLENTIFUL WESTERN ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. FAIRLY DRY PROFILES (PWATS DOWN LESS
THAN A HALF INCH) AND SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING OVERHEAD ARGUE FOR A
DRY FORECAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COULD BE A DECENTLY CHILLY MORNING FOR THE INLAND COLD SPOTS
TUESDAY MORNING AS INITIAL DRY PUSH ARRIVES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALREADY HINTING THAT THE "ICE BOX" LOCALES MAY END
UP IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S...AND THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...A GREAT DAY EXPECTED FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY (BENEATH
UPPER COOL POOL) GIVING WAY TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY
AS WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW CRANKS UP.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A BIT MORE TRICKY
FORECAST THAN EXPECTED THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH MAIN CONCERNS
HINGING ON DEGREE OF WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL
BACKING AWAY FROM THE EXTREME WARMTH SHOWN THE PAST FEW DAYS...
COURTESY OF LEAD SHORTWAVE LATER THURSDAY HELPING BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGING BEFORE IT CAN BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHERN LAKES. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH
DEEPER AND MORE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...FAVORING A MORE LATITUDINAL VERSUS MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT TO WHAT SHOULD STILL BE SOME IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
STATES.

EVEN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE STRONGLY TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...
FAVORING A MORE FLATTENED RIDGING SITUATION THIS FAR NORTH. IT WILL
STILL BE WARM FOR SURE...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS WARM AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT. ALSO...GIVEN THE SETUP...WITH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE JUST
UPSTREAM INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST (ON THE EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING)...WE
WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
DROPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN A RATHER TYPICAL
MCS PATTERN. THIS COULD BE SOME GOOD NEWS IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
POTENTIAL (WHICH WE COULD CERTAINLY USE)...THOUGH SADLY FOR THE HEAT
LOVERS IT MAY WELL COME AT THE EXPENSE OF HOT WEATHER. THE NEW
WEEKEND FORECAST WILL INTRODUCE SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS LOWER HIGHS BACK THROUGH THE 70S OR LOWER 80S
(STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). WITH ALL OF THAT
SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PATTERN THAT
FAR OUT DOES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION TO SEND SOME VERY WARM WEATHER BACK
OUR WAY. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU
THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CU FIELDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IFR/LIFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.  COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.  A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA OVER WHITEFISH BAY
AND LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ON MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ018-023-024-
     029-030-035-036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...JK

000
FXUS63 KMQT 201809
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
209 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THE 500MB AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH SET UP TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO EDGE EASTWARD. WHILE THE ENTIRE 500MB TROUGH WILL BE INFLUENCING
OUR WEATHER...IT WILL REALLY BE THE SOUTHERN TROUGH ACROSS FAR SW MN
EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WILL PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE SLOW MOVING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THIS SOUTHERN 500MB TROUGH TO
PUSH INTO N AND CENTRAL MN BY EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SLIDING ACROSS
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY. THE SFC TROUGH SET UP FROM N QUEBEC
THROUGH IWD...AND DOWN THROUGH IA AT DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD...MAKING IT ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI BY
EARLY EVENING...AND FAR EASTERN UPPER MI SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR WX SPECIFICS...WE HAVE SEEN MUCH BETTER RH RECOVERY OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING /60 TO 80 PERCENT/...AFTER RECOVERIES
NEAR 45 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE MQT
88-D RADAR CONTINUES TO PICK UP 20-30DBZ REFLECTIVITY OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THAT IS OVER 9KFT...AND LIKELY NOT REACHING THE
SFC. THE PLACE WHERE IT MAY BE REACHING THE GROUND IS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS BASICALLY SAME LOCATION OF THE
ORIGIN OF A TS THAT DEVELOPED OVER AFTER 05Z AND PUSHED NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AFTER 06Z/.

WITH MIXING HEIGHTS POTENTIALLY JUMPING TO NEAR 800MB AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI...WE COULD TAP INTO SOME STRONGER
WINDS ONCE AGAIN /ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWERS TS THAT
DEVELOP/...WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 30-35KTS AHEAD OF THE NEARING
LOW/COLD FRONT. WILL LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE SPECIFICALLY FOR IMT /BASED OFF NAM FCST SOUNDINGS/ SBCAPE
VALUES TOP OUT NEAR 2.5K J/KG...WITH A FREEZING LEVEL AROUND
12.6KFT. A BOWING TS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL WINDS /850-500MB/ AND DRY AIR ALOFT WITH A
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION NEAR 10C AT 700MB AND 8C AT 500MB. TO ADD SOME
MODERATION TO THE STORM POTENTIAL...THE MORE REASONABLE GFS TOPS OUT
SBCAPE VALUES NEARLY 1K J/KG LESS THAN THE NAM...AND IS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR EITHER.

WE STILL LOOK TO GET A CWA AVERAGE OF 0.25IN OF RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPECIFIC AMOUNTS FOR ANY ONE LOCATION VARY SIGNIFICANTLY.
FOR EXAMPLE...THE 21/06Z NAM IS SPITTING OUT LITTLE OVER A TRACE OF
RAIN AT P53...WHILE OTHER MODELS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5IN. THE BEST
BET FOR RAIN REMAINS THE WEST HALF AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...WITH THE
BEST FORCING SLIDING OVER N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS S
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE W DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO INVADE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST. DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S WOULD
RESULT IN RH VALUES OF 17 TO 25 PERCENT WEST OF A LINE FROM IMT TO
ISHPEMING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20MPH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MON NGT...WITH DRY SFC HI PRES CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS...EXPECT A
MOCLR OVERNGT. CONSIDERING EXPECTED LGT WINDS/PWAT UNDER 0.50
INCH...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE WCENTRAL WHERE WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHTEST
THRU THE NGT. ADDED A MENTION OF FROST AT SOME OF THE COLDER
LOCATIONS...WHERE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL NEAR 32. A RETURN SW FLOW
OVER THE W LATER MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT FM IWD THRU THE KEWEENAW.

TUE...AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE E AND TO A LINE FM
THE SAULT TO NEAR DETROIT BY LATE IN THE DAY UNDER BLDG UPR RDG...A
STRONGER S WIND WL DVLP OVER THE W UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BTWN THE RDG AND FALLING PRES IN THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME MID CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURNING WARM AIR...GFS FCST
SDNGS INDICATE THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY WITH ADVECTION OF LOWER H85
DEWPTS FOR ANY PCPN EVEN FM IWD-CMX. DID INCLUDE SOME LO CHCS POPS
OVER NW LK SUP WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF GENERATE SOME PCPN NEAR FCST WARM
FNT.

TUE NGT...WITH DEEPENING TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...RDG WL BUILD
OVER THE GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW WARM FNT SHIFTING NWD
INTO ONTARIO/NW LK SUP...THESE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER
PORTIONS OF MAINLY THE NW CWA. CONSIDERING FOCUS FOR H85 MSTR RETURN
REMAINING TO THE W AND POSITION OF WARM FNT TO THE NW AS INDICATED
BY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT SHOWN ON THE GFS 300K ISENTROPIC
SFC...OPTED TO KEEP THE LAND AREAS DRY AND MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS OVER
W AND NCNTRL LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
A LO PRES TROF ATTENDANT TO A SHRTWV/SFC LO MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TROF INTO NW ONTARIO AT MID WEEK AND THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN
SHIELD. CONSIDERING THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS...SUSPECT THE
SLOWER 00Z ECMWF/CNDN MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE THU/THU NGT. BUT FOLLOWED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS GIVEN FCST UNCERTAINTY. EXPECT ABV NORMAL TEMPS AT MID
WEEK IN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS COLD FNT TO GRDLY FALL CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOLLOWING THE FROPA AND IN THE NE FLOW TO THE S OF HI PRES
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR S THE FNT MOVES WITH
PERSISTENT MEAN RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...MORE SHRA ARE PSBL THRU SAT
WHEN THIS BNDRY RETURNS N AS A WARM FNT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER
THROUGH EACH TAF SITE ENDING BY LATE EVENING OVER NEAR IWD AND THE
REMAINING SITES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE AT EACH SITE WITH A FEW IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AS AND JUST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT
AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST GUSTING TO NEAR 22 KTS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
EXCEPT FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM RAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME STRONGER S WINDS AT THE HIER PLATFORMS OVER
THE E HALF OF LK SUP LIKE STANNARD ROCK EARLY THIS MRNG UNDER A
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER FAR WESTERN LK SUP
AND HI PRES TO THE E...VERY STABLE MARINE LAYER SHOULD LIMIT 10M
WIND SPEEDS TO NO MORE THAN 15 TO 25 KTS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW/SOME FOG IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...BUT
THE NW WIND SHOULD NOT EXCEED 20-25 KTS. THEN HI PRES WILL BRING
LIGHT WINDS INTO WED BEFORE A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 25 KTS DEVELOPS
ON WED INTO THU UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI
DEPARTING TO THE E AND A LO PRES TROF MOVING E FROM THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KC

000
FXUS63 KDTX 201734
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
134 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

IN A HOLDING PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. A SIZABLE MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS TRACKING
EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF CANADA AND THE UNITED
STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL SHUTTLE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
TERMINAL SITES ON MONDAY. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO
EXIST SURROUNDING THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL DEFER TO
A LATER UPDATE/ISSUANCE TO ADD ANY MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST. DID
TIME IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES - MID MORNING
TOMORROW WITH COOLER AIR/CAA INVERSION SETTLING IN.

THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE TODAY THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
GET GOING IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN-PARTICULARLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE REASON FOR THE AWARENESS IS SOME MODEST
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON THAT
MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...THE MOVEMENT OF THE CELLS IS
EXPECTED TO BE VIRTUALLY DUE NORTHWARD WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW.
THUS...THIS EARLY ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
THE TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE CIRRUS DEBRIS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 255 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY INDUCING A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE
UNIMPRESSIVE, AS A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
SOUTHEAST GRADIENT FLOW OBSERVED THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL GIVE MAX
TEMPS A BIT OF A BOOST FROM YESTERDAY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OF
HIGHS IN UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY/INDIANA
YESTERDAY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED HERE. A COUPLE OF 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL EVEN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED WARMER AREAS SUCH THE SAGINAW VALLEY OR
DETROIT METRO AND POINTS SOUTH. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP AFTERNOON
MIXED LAYER WITHIN THE ALREADY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES
A GENERAL 2-3F BELOW BELOW ACTUAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
TSTORM POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND FRONTAL FORCING RATHER
WEAK...WOULD EXPECT DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO BE MAIN DRIVER IN THE
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL FOCUS IN FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS...50% OR LESS...GIVEN LACK OF FOCUS
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN COOLING OFF
EARLIER OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA WITH HIGHS ON THE LOW/MID 70S...BUT
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF
THE CWA TO PUSH 80 FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THIS COOLER WEATHER HOLDS INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE
AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES BUILD QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND 80S FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS BACK
INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS VARY ON THE
EXTENT TO WHICH THIS SYSTEM FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WITH A RATHER TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO AIRMASSES...CONFIDENCE IN DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE SOMEWHAT LOW. FOR NOW...FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA TO THE MID 80S OR BETTER NEARER THE OHIO STATELINE.

WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM ALSO FOCUSING MUCH OF ITS ENERGY WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN MINIMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...

BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR NEARSHORE ZONES TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON`S OPEN WATERS WHERE
CORRESPONDING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH 3 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND ONE FOOT OR LESS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND
OF BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KGRR 201728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

VERY WARM CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER
ANTICIPATED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE POPS/TIMING
FOR CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN OVER OUR
WESTERN FCST AREA (MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF US-131) AS SB CAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS THAT AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVE AND SOME PVA FROM THE SW OCCURS. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR IS WEAK I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE BETTER CHC FOR SCT CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING
WITH FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER AFTER DECENT INSTABILITY
LINGERS THRU MID EVENING WE ANTICIPATE TSTORMS WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY
OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL NOT BE THAT EXTENSIVE
AND A CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE QPF FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE. SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THE MAIN CHALLENGES DEALS WITH THE DEAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND ALSO THE RISK OF STORMS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION MON EVENING.  BASED ON THIS WILL REMOVE THE PRECIPITATION
AFTER 06Z TUE.  STILL SOME INSTABILITY AROUND 00Z TUE...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN COUNTIES.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE STORMS
PERSISTING FOR THE EVENING.

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THU NIGHT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF MI FRI.  A WARM FRONT THEN ORGANIZES AND TRIES TO LIFT NORTH OF
GRAND RAPIDS SATURDAY.  THESE FRONTS WILL LIKELY POOL UP THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEADING TO ONE OR MORE ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  SUCH SYSTEM
CAN CREATE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGES.  DECENT SHEAR AROUND THU
AND INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES.  THUS ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK TO BECOME ORGANIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOME TOWERING CU GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BUT DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL INITIALLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT MOST. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER
UNTIL AFTER 00Z AS STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. SO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TP PREVAIL THROUGH
EVENING THEN ISOLATED MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS MOVES IN.

SOME WIDESPREAD MVFR EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS LOWER MOISTURE
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY 06Z. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND THEN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A HAZARD TO
MARINERS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT AND WAVES MAY KICK UP BRIEFLY AS
WINDS VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND 1000-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOES NOT
LOOK CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH IF/WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOP BUT NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS

000
FXUS63 KAPX 201706
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
106 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOUTH WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIR INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING...MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD. VERY WARM
WEATHER MAY RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THINGS BASICALLY ON TRACK WTIH FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CU FIELDS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN LOWER. STILL SEE SOME POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM LATER TODAY...SO CURRENT 20 POPS LOOK GOOD. WILL
ADJUST HIGH TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...AS READINGS
HAVE ALREADY REACHED PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS. WILL LIKELY GET
CLOSE TO A FEW RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FEW AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE HURON COAST GETTING CLOSE TO RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA AND MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER AT LEAST A PARTIAL
UPGRADE OF CURRENT WATCH TO A WARNING. WILL ASSESS IN THE NEAR
TERM AND MAKE A FINAL DECISION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT SUN MAY
20 2012

BROKEN LINE OF CU BUBBLING NEAR/ALONG THE US-131 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. WOULD EXPECT MORE DIURNAL CU IN GENERAL TODAY AS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ GIVEN
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MUCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.
ALTHOUGH LACKING A BONIFIDE TRIGGER...COMBO OF BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN. WINDS ALOFT LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH
/25KTS/ TO PRECLUDE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. SO OROGRAPHICS MAY BE
THE BEST FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPS LIKELY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL CU
FIELDS TODAY COULD KEEPS READINGS A BIT BELOW SATURDAY LEVELS IN
SOME LOCALES.

CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN NO CHANGES. IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE 25 PERCENT RH VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS TODAY
GIVEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN MANY
LOCATIONS TO WARRANT THE WATCH HEADLINE GIVEN TEMPS/WINDS AND LOW
FUEL MOISTURE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SKC CONTINUES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
IR SATELLITE INDICATES SCATTERED MID CLOUD IS ON OUR DOORSTEP IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL STEADILY
INVADE OUR CWA FROM W TO E TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPS. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR
NORTHWOODS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SIGNS OF CHANGE TONIGHT...AS CURRENT CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAKES
THE TURN NORTHEAST...WITH SLOW TO DEPART EASTERN LAKES RIDGING
SUPPLYING THE STEERING MECHANISM. ATTENDANT UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
COLD FRONT ALSO NOW MAKING NOTABLE HEADWAY EAST...KICKING OFF A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AS IT
DOES SO. IN THE MEANTIME...OUR WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY SAID
RIDGING...BRINGING ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. PRE-FRONTAL UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS STILL DEEPLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE LAKE REGION (YEAH...STATING THE OBVIOUS BASED
OFF YESTERDAYS RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S)...AS EVIDENT BY 00Z REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER TEEN H85 TEMPERATURES. WHILE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...NO DOUBT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN DEEP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THUS...LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL NEED ADDRESSING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AND...FOR A WELCOME CHANGE OF PACE...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NEED PLENTY OF ATTENTION TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE NORTH WOODS.

A CHALLENGING FORECAST ON MANY ASPECTS TODAY...FOREMOST BEING
JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES RECOVER...AND HOW LOW AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROP (BOTH OF WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT). ADDRESSING THE FORMER...CAN
FIND LITTLE REASON HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY WILL
NOT OCCUR TODAY...WITH SIMILAR OFF THE DECK TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAY FIND SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND COULD EVEN POP A FEW CU ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER/INTERIOR HIGHLANDS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AT LEAST PARTIALLY
COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL...THESE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...ALLOWING AFTERNOON READINGS ONCE
AGAIN TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED SOUTH FLOW DOWNSLOPE LOCALES. AS FOR DEWPOINTS...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
SUGGESTING NEAR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON. TRAJECTORIES WOULD SUGGEST YESTERDAY`S WESTERN LAKES
AIRMASS...WHERE DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...WILL BE OURS TODAY. THIS ALSO FITS WELL WITH ANTICIPATED
MIXING AT LEAST UP THROUGH H85...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD
SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S/A FEW UPPER
40S...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE DRY AIR HOLDS ON THE
LONGEST. COMBO OF THE ABOVE SUPPORTS INTERIOR NORTHEAST LOWER MIN RH
VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...AND IT APPEARS WE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE ON THE CUSP OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ALREADY HOISTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-55/EAST OF I-75 ON THE LAST
EVENING UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT
OVERLY HIGH ON JUST HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON...
SO WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW THE PROTOCOL OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...RIDING
WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND WAIT FOR COLLABORATION WITH THE
FOREST SERVICE AND DNR (OR RAPIDLY DROPPING DEWPOINTS) TO PULL THE
TRIGGER ON A RED FLAG WARNING.

AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL...GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT ON AT
LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS FORCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WORKS ON NEARLY 2K JOULES/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS TIED TO EARLIER MENTIONED NEAR 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS. ASSUMING A MORE REALISTIC (AT LEAST HOPE SO) LOW TO MID
50 DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY CUTS AVAILABLE CAPE (BY AT LEAST HALF)
AND GENERATES SIGNIFICANT CIN TO OVERCOME. WILL TREND AWAY FROM THE
SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOISTURE ADVECTION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CUTS
ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE 850MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO THE LOWER
TEENS AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO WELL OVER AN INCH...STILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS ON EXTENT OF ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...DECREASING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND A QUICK LOSS OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SURE NOT A RECIPE FOR GOOD RAINS.
MULTI-DAY SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS AS SUCH...WITH FRONTAL PRECIP
DIRECTLY TIED TO AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY MAXIMA.
STILL...SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DECENT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARGUES FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE ATTEMPTED SOME BETTER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION BASED OFF THE
ABOVE...SLOWLY SPREADING RAIN CHANCES EAST THIS EVENING...WITH
AREA-WIDE CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ANY SEVERE THREAT
MINIMAL AT BEST...GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND BEST
MID LEVEL JET CORE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER AND
DELAY OF CAA SUPPORTS ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH READINGS BY MORNING
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MONDAY...WHILE BOTH NAM AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM
DEPICTS A SLOWING IN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO AS COMPARED TO
THE STEADY MARCH ACROSS THE STATE AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...MAINLY
BECAUSE OF THE TENDENCY FOR COLD FRONTS TO STALL AS THE DAY HEATS UP
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ENHANCES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONTS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM`S SLOWER SOLUTION...AND IN
DOING SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU 00Z TUESDAY AND
ALSO LINGER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NE LWR MICHIGAN THRU 06Z.
MUCAPES WILL APPROACH 2000 J/KG IN NE LWR MICHIGAN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WANE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WIND
FIELDS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KTS. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 6 TO 6.5 C/KM...AS A MODEST 850 MB THETA E RIDGE SLIDES
OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CERTAINLY LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED BY DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE STATE DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AM NOT EXCITED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS TO THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP/CLOUD
COVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO
MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL SERVE AS A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WE EXPERIENCED THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND (MORE ON THIS BELOW).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO UPR MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL
GENERALLY IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL HOLD OVER THE NRN PLAINS THRU NEXT WEEKEND ALONG
THE NW PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SRN GREAT LAKES. HARD
TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL...BUT FIRST GUESS IS IN
THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND
CHANCES OF PRECIP AROUND THE FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...TEMPS COULD BECOME QUITE WARM AS PROJECTED BY 850 MB TEMPS
OF +18C TO +22C PER ECMWF. WILL NOT COMPLETELY BITE ON THIS
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE FOR NOW...KEEPING PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN. TEMPS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE ONLY IN THE 60S IF CLOUDS AN PRECIP
ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU
THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CU FIELDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IFR/LIFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN LAKES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE ISOLATED SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SCA/S...HOWEVER.
THE COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ017-018-
     022>024-028>030-034>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...MB

000
FXUS63 KAPX 201401
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOUTH WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIR INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING...MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD. VERY WARM
WEATHER MAY RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

BROKEN LINE OF CU BUBBLING NEAR/ALONG THE US-131 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. WOULD EXPECT MORE DIURNAL CU IN GENERAL TODAY AS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ GIVEN
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MUCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.
ALTHOUGH LACKING A BONIFIDE TRIGGER...COMBO OF BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN. WINDS ALOFT LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH
/25KTS/ TO PRECLUDE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. SO OROGRAPHICS MAY BE
THE BEST FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPS LIKELY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL CU
FIELDS TODAY COULD KEEPS READINGS A BIT BELOW SATURDAY LEVELS IN
SOME LOCALES.

CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN NO CHANGES. IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE 25 PERCENT RH VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS TODAY
GIVEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN MANY
LOCATIONS TO WARRANT THE WATCH HEADLINE GIVEN TEMPS/WINDS AND LOW
FUEL MOISTURE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SKC CONTINUES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
IR SATELLITE INDICATES SCATTERED MID CLOUD IS ON OUR DOORSTEP IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL STEADILY
INVADE OUR CWA FROM W TO E TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPS. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR
NORTHWOODS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SIGNS OF CHANGE TONIGHT...AS CURRENT CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAKES
THE TURN NORTHEAST...WITH SLOW TO DEPART EASTERN LAKES RIDGING
SUPPLYING THE STEERING MECHANISM. ATTENDANT UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
COLD FRONT ALSO NOW MAKING NOTABLE HEADWAY EAST...KICKING OFF A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AS IT
DOES SO. IN THE MEANTIME...OUR WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY SAID
RIDGING...BRINGING ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. PRE-FRONTAL UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS STILL DEEPLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE LAKE REGION (YEAH...STATING THE OBVIOUS BASED
OFF YESTERDAYS RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S)...AS EVIDENT BY 00Z REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER TEEN H85 TEMPERATURES. WHILE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...NO DOUBT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN DEEP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THUS...LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL NEED ADDRESSING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AND...FOR A WELCOME CHANGE OF PACE...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NEED PLENTY OF ATTENTION TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE NORTH WOODS.

A CHALLENGING FORECAST ON MANY ASPECTS TODAY...FOREMOST BEING
JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES RECOVER...AND HOW LOW AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROP (BOTH OF WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT). ADDRESSING THE FORMER...CAN
FIND LITTLE REASON HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY WILL
NOT OCCUR TODAY...WITH SIMILAR OFF THE DECK TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAY FIND SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND COULD EVEN POP A FEW CU ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER/INTERIOR HIGHLANDS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AT LEAST PARTIALLY
COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL...THESE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...ALLOWING AFTERNOON READINGS ONCE
AGAIN TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED SOUTH FLOW DOWNSLOPE LOCALES. AS FOR DEWPOINTS...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
SUGGESTING NEAR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON. TRAJECTORIES WOULD SUGGEST YESTERDAY`S WESTERN LAKES
AIRMASS...WHERE DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...WILL BE OURS TODAY. THIS ALSO FITS WELL WITH ANTICIPATED
MIXING AT LEAST UP THROUGH H85...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD
SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S/A FEW UPPER
40S...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE DRY AIR HOLDS ON THE
LONGEST. COMBO OF THE ABOVE SUPPORTS INTERIOR NORTHEAST LOWER MIN RH
VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...AND IT APPEARS WE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE ON THE CUSP OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ALREADY HOISTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-55/EAST OF I-75 ON THE LAST
EVENING UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT
OVERLY HIGH ON JUST HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON...
SO WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW THE PROTOCOL OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...RIDING
WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND WAIT FOR COLLABORATION WITH THE
FOREST SERVICE AND DNR (OR RAPIDLY DROPPING DEWPOINTS) TO PULL THE
TRIGGER ON A RED FLAG WARNING.

AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL...GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT ON AT
LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS FORCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WORKS ON NEARLY 2K JOULES/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS TIED TO EARLIER MENTIONED NEAR 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS. ASSUMING A MORE REALISTIC (AT LEAST HOPE SO) LOW TO MID
50 DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY CUTS AVAILABLE CAPE (BY AT LEAST HALF)
AND GENERATES SIGNIFICANT CIN TO OVERCOME. WILL TREND AWAY FROM THE
SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOISTURE ADVECTION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CUTS
ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE 850MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO THE LOWER
TEENS AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO WELL OVER AN INCH...STILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS ON EXTENT OF ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...DECREASING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND A QUICK LOSS OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SURE NOT A RECIPE FOR GOOD RAINS.
MULTI-DAY SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS AS SUCH...WITH FRONTAL PRECIP
DIRECTLY TIED TO AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY MAXIMA.
STILL...SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DECENT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARGUES FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE ATTEMPTED SOME BETTER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION BASED OFF THE
ABOVE...SLOWLY SPREADING RAIN CHANCES EAST THIS EVENING...WITH
AREA-WIDE CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ANY SEVERE THREAT
MINIMAL AT BEST...GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND BEST
MID LEVEL JET CORE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER AND
DELAY OF CAA SUPPORTS ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH READINGS BY MORNING
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MONDAY...WHILE BOTH NAM AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM
DEPICTS A SLOWING IN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO AS COMPARED TO
THE STEADY MARCH ACROSS THE STATE AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...MAINLY
BECAUSE OF THE TENDENCY FOR COLD FRONTS TO STALL AS THE DAY HEATS UP
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ENHANCES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONTS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM`S SLOWER SOLUTION...AND IN
DOING SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU 00Z TUESDAY AND
ALSO LINGER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NE LWR MICHIGAN THRU 06Z.
MUCAPES WILL APPROACH 2000 J/KG IN NE LWR MICHIGAN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WANE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WIND
FIELDS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KTS. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 6 TO 6.5 C/KM...AS A MODEST 850 MB THETA E RIDGE SLIDES
OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CERTAINLY LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED BY DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE STATE DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AM NOT EXCITED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS TO THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP/CLOUD
COVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO
MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL SERVE AS A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WE EXPERIENCED THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND (MORE ON THIS BELOW).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO UPR MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL
GENERALLY IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL HOLD OVER THE NRN PLAINS THRU NEXT WEEKEND ALONG
THE NW PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SRN GREAT LAKES. HARD
TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL...BUT FIRST GUESS IS IN
THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND
CHANCES OF PRECIP AROUND THE FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...TEMPS COULD BECOME QUITE WARM AS PROJECTED BY 850 MB TEMPS
OF +18C TO +22C PER ECMWF. WILL NOT COMPLETELY BITE ON THIS
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE FOR NOW...KEEPING PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN. TEMPS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE ONLY IN THE 60S IF CLOUDS AN PRECIP
ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN
THRU TONIGHT. SCATTERED MID CLOUD WILL ARRIVE BY AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MOVE INTO THE
AREA ALONG THE FRONT. LLWS IS EXPECTED THRU AROUND MID MORNING
BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING BRINGS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN LAKES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE ISOLATED SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SCA/S...HOWEVER.
THE COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ017-018-022>024-
     028>030-034>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB

000
FXUS63 KAPX 201357
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
957 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOUTH WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIR INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING...MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD. VERY WARM
WEATHER MAY RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

BROKEN LINE OF CU BUBBLING NEAR/ALONG THE US-131 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. WOULD EXPECT MORE DIURNAL CU IN GENERAL TODAY AS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ GIVEN
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MUCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.
ALTHOUGH LACKING A BONIFIDE TRIGGER...COMBO OF BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN. WINDS ALOFT LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH
/25KTS/ TO PRECLUDE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. SO OROGRAPHICS MAY BE
THE BEST FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPS LIKELY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL CU
FIELDS TODAY COULD KEEPS READINGS A BIT BELOW SATURDAY LEVELS IN
SOME LOCALES.

CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WARNING LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN NO CHANGES. IT
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE 25 PERCENT RH VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY GIVEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN MANY
LOCATIONS TO WARRANT THE HEADLINE GIVEN TEMPS/WINDS AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SKC CONTINUES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
IR SATELLITE INDICATES SCATTERED MID CLOUD IS ON OUR DOORSTEP IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL STEADILY
INVADE OUR CWA FROM W TO E TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPS. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR
NORTHWOODS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SIGNS OF CHANGE TONIGHT...AS CURRENT CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAKES
THE TURN NORTHEAST...WITH SLOW TO DEPART EASTERN LAKES RIDGING
SUPPLYING THE STEERING MECHANISM. ATTENDANT UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
COLD FRONT ALSO NOW MAKING NOTABLE HEADWAY EAST...KICKING OFF A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AS IT
DOES SO. IN THE MEANTIME...OUR WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY SAID
RIDGING...BRINGING ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. PRE-FRONTAL UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS STILL DEEPLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE LAKE REGION (YEAH...STATING THE OBVIOUS BASED
OFF YESTERDAYS RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S)...AS EVIDENT BY 00Z REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER TEEN H85 TEMPERATURES. WHILE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...NO DOUBT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN DEEP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THUS...LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL NEED ADDRESSING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AND...FOR A WELCOME CHANGE OF PACE...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NEED PLENTY OF ATTENTION TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE NORTH WOODS.

A CHALLENGING FORECAST ON MANY ASPECTS TODAY...FOREMOST BEING
JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES RECOVER...AND HOW LOW AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROP (BOTH OF WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT). ADDRESSING THE FORMER...CAN
FIND LITTLE REASON HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY WILL
NOT OCCUR TODAY...WITH SIMILAR OFF THE DECK TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAY FIND SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND COULD EVEN POP A FEW CU ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER/INTERIOR HIGHLANDS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AT LEAST PARTIALLY
COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL...THESE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...ALLOWING AFTERNOON READINGS ONCE
AGAIN TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED SOUTH FLOW DOWNSLOPE LOCALES. AS FOR DEWPOINTS...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
SUGGESTING NEAR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON. TRAJECTORIES WOULD SUGGEST YESTERDAY`S WESTERN LAKES
AIRMASS...WHERE DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...WILL BE OURS TODAY. THIS ALSO FITS WELL WITH ANTICIPATED
MIXING AT LEAST UP THROUGH H85...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD
SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S/A FEW UPPER
40S...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE DRY AIR HOLDS ON THE
LONGEST. COMBO OF THE ABOVE SUPPORTS INTERIOR NORTHEAST LOWER MIN RH
VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...AND IT APPEARS WE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE ON THE CUSP OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ALREADY HOISTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-55/EAST OF I-75 ON THE LAST
EVENING UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT
OVERLY HIGH ON JUST HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON...
SO WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW THE PROTOCOL OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...RIDING
WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND WAIT FOR COLLABORATION WITH THE
FOREST SERVICE AND DNR (OR RAPIDLY DROPPING DEWPOINTS) TO PULL THE
TRIGGER ON A RED FLAG WARNING.

AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL...GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT ON AT
LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS FORCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WORKS ON NEARLY 2K JOULES/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS TIED TO EARLIER MENTIONED NEAR 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS. ASSUMING A MORE REALISTIC (AT LEAST HOPE SO) LOW TO MID
50 DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY CUTS AVAILABLE CAPE (BY AT LEAST HALF)
AND GENERATES SIGNIFICANT CIN TO OVERCOME. WILL TREND AWAY FROM THE
SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOISTURE ADVECTION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CUTS
ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE 850MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO THE LOWER
TEENS AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO WELL OVER AN INCH...STILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS ON EXTENT OF ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...DECREASING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND A QUICK LOSS OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SURE NOT A RECIPE FOR GOOD RAINS.
MULTI-DAY SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS AS SUCH...WITH FRONTAL PRECIP
DIRECTLY TIED TO AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY MAXIMA.
STILL...SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DECENT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARGUES FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE ATTEMPTED SOME BETTER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION BASED OFF THE
ABOVE...SLOWLY SPREADING RAIN CHANCES EAST THIS EVENING...WITH
AREA-WIDE CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ANY SEVERE THREAT
MINIMAL AT BEST...GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND BEST
MID LEVEL JET CORE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER AND
DELAY OF CAA SUPPORTS ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH READINGS BY MORNING
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MONDAY...WHILE BOTH NAM AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM
DEPICTS A SLOWING IN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO AS COMPARED TO
THE STEADY MARCH ACROSS THE STATE AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...MAINLY
BECAUSE OF THE TENDENCY FOR COLD FRONTS TO STALL AS THE DAY HEATS UP
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ENHANCES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONTS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM`S SLOWER SOLUTION...AND IN
DOING SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU 00Z TUESDAY AND
ALSO LINGER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NE LWR MICHIGAN THRU 06Z.
MUCAPES WILL APPROACH 2000 J/KG IN NE LWR MICHIGAN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WANE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WIND
FIELDS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KTS. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 6 TO 6.5 C/KM...AS A MODEST 850 MB THETA E RIDGE SLIDES
OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CERTAINLY LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED BY DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE STATE DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AM NOT EXCITED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS TO THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP/CLOUD
COVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO
MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL SERVE AS A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WE EXPERIENCED THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND (MORE ON THIS BELOW).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO UPR MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL
GENERALLY IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL HOLD OVER THE NRN PLAINS THRU NEXT WEEKEND ALONG
THE NW PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SRN GREAT LAKES. HARD
TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL...BUT FIRST GUESS IS IN
THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND
CHANCES OF PRECIP AROUND THE FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...TEMPS COULD BECOME QUITE WARM AS PROJECTED BY 850 MB TEMPS
OF +18C TO +22C PER ECMWF. WILL NOT COMPLETELY BITE ON THIS
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE FOR NOW...KEEPING PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN. TEMPS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE ONLY IN THE 60S IF CLOUDS AN PRECIP
ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN
THRU TONIGHT. SCATTERED MID CLOUD WILL ARRIVE BY AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MOVE INTO THE
AREA ALONG THE FRONT. LLWS IS EXPECTED THRU AROUND MID MORNING
BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING BRINGS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN LAKES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE ISOLATED SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SCA/S...HOWEVER.
THE COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ017-018-022>024-
     028>030-034>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB

000
FXUS63 KGRR 201137
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
737 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

VERY WARM CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER
ANTICIPATED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE POPS/TIMING
FOR CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN OVER OUR
WESTERN FCST AREA (MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF US-131) AS SB CAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS THAT AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVE AND SOME PVA FROM THE SW OCCURS. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR IS WEAK I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE BETTER CHC FOR SCT CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING
WITH FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER AFTER DECENT INSTABILITY
LINGERS THRU MID EVENING WE ANTICIPATE TSTORMS WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY
OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL NOT BE THAT EXTENSIVE
AND A CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE QPF FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE. SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THE MAIN CHALLENGES DEALS WITH THE DEAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND ALSO THE RISK OF STORMS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION MON EVENING.  BASED ON THIS WILL REMOVE THE PRECIPITATION
AFTER 06Z TUE.  STILL SOME INSTABILITY AROUND 00Z TUE...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN COUNTIES.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE STORMS
PERSISTING FOR THE EVENING.

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THU NIGHT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF MI FRI.  A WARM FRONT THEN ORGANIZES AND TRIES TO LIFT NORTH OF
GRAND RAPIDS SATURDAY.  THESE FRONTS WILL LIKELY POOL UP THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEADING TO ONE OR MORE ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  SUCH SYSTEM
CAN CREATE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGES.  DECENT SHEAR AROUND THU
AND INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES.  THUS ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK TO BECOME ORGANIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT AFTER 18Z WE MAY START TO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ROUGHLY FROM KAZO TO KGRR. THEY WOULD
THEN TRACK EAST. A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER
IN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO MI TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE PERIOD
HOWEVER MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE IN KMKG FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND BUILD INTO THE REST OF THE TAF SITES ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND THEN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A HAZARD TO
MARINERS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT AND WAVES MAY KICK UP BRIEFLY AS
WINDS VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AGAIN TODAY BUT DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES WILL
BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WAS THE CASE ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WILL HELP TO LOWER THE FIRE DANGER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL NOT BE RATHER
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND 1000-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOES NOT LOOK
CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH IF/WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
FIRE WEATHER...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS

000
FXUS63 KAPX 201046
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOUTH WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIR INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING...MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD. VERY WARM
WEATHER MAY RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SKC CONTINUES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
IR SATELLITE INDICATES SCATTERED MID CLOUD IS ON OUR DOORSTEP IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL STEADILY
INVADE OUR CWA FROM W TO E TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPS. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR
NORTHWOODS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SIGNS OF CHANGE TONIGHT...AS CURRENT CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAKES
THE TURN NORTHEAST...WITH SLOW TO DEPART EASTERN LAKES RIDGING
SUPPLYING THE STEERING MECHANISM. ATTENDANT UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
COLD FRONT ALSO NOW MAKING NOTABLE HEADWAY EAST...KICKING OFF A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AS IT
DOES SO. IN THE MEANTIME...OUR WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY SAID
RIDGING...BRINGING ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. PRE-FRONTAL UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS STILL DEEPLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE LAKE REGION (YEAH...STATING THE OBVIOUS BASED
OFF YESTERDAYS RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S)...AS EVIDENT BY 00Z REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER TEEN H85 TEMPERATURES. WHILE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...NO DOUBT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN DEEP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THUS...LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL NEED ADDRESSING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AND...FOR A WELCOME CHANGE OF PACE...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NEED PLENTY OF ATTENTION TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE NORTH WOODS.

A CHALLENGING FORECAST ON MANY ASPECTS TODAY...FOREMOST BEING
JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES RECOVER...AND HOW LOW AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROP (BOTH OF WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT). ADDRESSING THE FORMER...CAN
FIND LITTLE REASON HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY WILL
NOT OCCUR TODAY...WITH SIMILAR OFF THE DECK TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAY FIND SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND COULD EVEN POP A FEW CU ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER/INTERIOR HIGHLANDS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AT LEAST PARTIALLY
COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL...THESE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...ALLOWING AFTERNOON READINGS ONCE
AGAIN TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED SOUTH FLOW DOWNSLOPE LOCALES. AS FOR DEWPOINTS...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
SUGGESTING NEAR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON. TRAJECTORIES WOULD SUGGEST YESTERDAY`S WESTERN LAKES
AIRMASS...WHERE DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...WILL BE OURS TODAY. THIS ALSO FITS WELL WITH ANTICIPATED
MIXING AT LEAST UP THROUGH H85...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD
SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S/A FEW UPPER
40S...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE DRY AIR HOLDS ON THE
LONGEST. COMBO OF THE ABOVE SUPPORTS INTERIOR NORTHEAST LOWER MIN RH
VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...AND IT APPEARS WE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE ON THE CUSP OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ALREADY HOISTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-55/EAST OF I-75 ON THE LAST
EVENING UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT
OVERLY HIGH ON JUST HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON...
SO WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW THE PROTOCOL OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...RIDING
WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND WAIT FOR COLLABORATION WITH THE
FOREST SERVICE AND DNR (OR RAPIDLY DROPPING DEWPOINTS) TO PULL THE
TRIGGER ON A RED FLAG WARNING.

AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL...GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT ON AT
LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS FORCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WORKS ON NEARLY 2K JOULES/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS TIED TO EARLIER MENTIONED NEAR 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS. ASSUMING A MORE REALISTIC (AT LEAST HOPE SO) LOW TO MID
50 DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY CUTS AVAILABLE CAPE (BY AT LEAST HALF)
AND GENERATES SIGNIFICANT CIN TO OVERCOME. WILL TREND AWAY FROM THE
SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOISTURE ADVECTION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CUTS
ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE 850MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO THE LOWER
TEENS AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO WELL OVER AN INCH...STILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS ON EXTENT OF ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...DECREASING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND A QUICK LOSS OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SURE NOT A RECIPE FOR GOOD RAINS.
MULTI-DAY SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS AS SUCH...WITH FRONTAL PRECIP
DIRECTLY TIED TO AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY MAXIMA.
STILL...SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DECENT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARGUES FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE ATTEMPTED SOME BETTER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION BASED OFF THE
ABOVE...SLOWLY SPREADING RAIN CHANCES EAST THIS EVENING...WITH
AREA-WIDE CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ANY SEVERE THREAT
MINIMAL AT BEST...GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND BEST
MID LEVEL JET CORE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER AND
DELAY OF CAA SUPPORTS ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH READINGS BY MORNING
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MONDAY...WHILE BOTH NAM AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM
DEPICTS A SLOWING IN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO AS COMPARED TO
THE STEADY MARCH ACROSS THE STATE AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...MAINLY
BECAUSE OF THE TENDENCY FOR COLD FRONTS TO STALL AS THE DAY HEATS UP
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ENHANCES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONTS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM`S SLOWER SOLUTION...AND IN
DOING SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU 00Z TUESDAY AND
ALSO LINGER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NE LWR MICHIGAN THRU 06Z.
MUCAPES WILL APPROACH 2000 J/KG IN NE LWR MICHIGAN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WANE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WIND
FIELDS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KTS. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 6 TO 6.5 C/KM...AS A MODEST 850 MB THETA E RIDGE SLIDES
OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CERTAINLY LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED BY DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE STATE DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AM NOT EXCITED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS TO THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP/CLOUD
COVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO
MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL SERVE AS A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WE EXPERIENCED THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND (MORE ON THIS BELOW).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO UPR MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL
GENERALLY IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL HOLD OVER THE NRN PLAINS THRU NEXT WEEKEND ALONG
THE NW PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SRN GREAT LAKES. HARD
TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL...BUT FIRST GUESS IS IN
THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND
CHANCES OF PRECIP AROUND THE FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...TEMPS COULD BECOME QUITE WARM AS PROJECTED BY 850 MB TEMPS
OF +18C TO +22C PER ECMWF. WILL NOT COMPLETELY BITE ON THIS
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE FOR NOW...KEEPING PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN. TEMPS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE ONLY IN THE 60S IF CLOUDS AN PRECIP
ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN
THRU TONIGHT. SCATTERED MID CLOUD WILL ARRIVE BY AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MOVE INTO THE
AREA ALONG THE FRONT. LLWS IS EXPECTED THRU AROUND MID MORNING
BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING BRINGS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN LAKES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE ISOLATED SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SCA/S...HOWEVER.
THE COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB

000
FXUS63 KMQT 200902
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THE 500MB AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH SET UP TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO EDGE EASTWARD. WHILE THE ENTIRE 500MB TROUGH WILL BE INFLUENCING
OUR WEATHER...IT WILL REALLY BE THE SOUTHERN TROUGH ACROSS FAR SW MN
EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WILL PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE SLOW MOVING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THIS SOUTHERN 500MB TROUGH TO
PUSH INTO N AND CENTRAL MN BY EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SLIDING ACROSS
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY. THE SFC TROUGH SET UP FROM N QUEBEC
THROUGH IWD...AND DOWN THROUGH IA AT DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD...MAKING IT ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI BY
EARLY EVENING...AND FAR EASTERN UPPER MI SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR WX SPECIFICS...WE HAVE SEEN MUCH BETTER RH RECOVERY OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING /60 TO 80 PERCENT/...AFTER RECOVERIES
NEAR 45 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE MQT
88-D RADAR CONTINUES TO PICK UP 20-30DBZ REFLECTIVITY OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THAT IS OVER 9KFT...AND LIKELY NOT REACHING THE
SFC. THE PLACE WHERE IT MAY BE REACHING THE GROUND IS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS BASICALLY SAME LOCATION OF THE
ORIGIN OF A TS THAT DEVELOPED OVER AFTER 05Z AND PUSHED NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AFTER 06Z/.

WITH MIXING HEIGHTS POTENTIALLY JUMPING TO NEAR 800MB AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI...WE COULD TAP INTO SOME STRONGER
WINDS ONCE AGAIN /ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWERS TS THAT
DEVELOP/...WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 30-35KTS AHEAD OF THE NEARING
LOW/COLD FRONT. WILL LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE SPECIFICALLY FOR IMT /BASED OFF NAM FCST SOUNDINGS/ SBCAPE
VALUES TOP OUT NEAR 2.5K J/KG...WITH A FREEZING LEVEL AROUND
12.6KFT. A BOWING TS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL WINDS /850-500MB/ AND DRY AIR ALOFT WITH A
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION NEAR 10C AT 700MB AND 8C AT 500MB. TO ADD SOME
MODERATION TO THE STORM POTENTIAL...THE MORE REASONABLE GFS TOPS OUT
SBCAPE VALUES NEARLY 1K J/KG LESS THAN THE NAM...AND IS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR EITHER.

WE STILL LOOK TO GET A CWA AVERAGE OF 0.25IN OF RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPECIFIC AMOUNTS FOR ANY ONE LOCATION VARY SIGNIFICANTLY.
FOR EXAMPLE...THE 21/06Z NAM IS SPITTING OUT LITTLE OVER A TRACE OF
RAIN AT P53...WHILE OTHER MODELS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5IN. THE BEST
BET FOR RAIN REMAINS THE WEST HALF AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...WITH THE
BEST FORCING SLIDING OVER N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS S
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE W DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO INVADE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST. DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S WOULD
RESULT IN RH VALUES OF 17 TO 25 PERCENT WEST OF A LINE FROM IMT TO
ISHPEMING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20MPH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MON NGT...WITH DRY SFC HI PRES CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS...EXPECT A
MOCLR OVERNGT. CONSIDERING EXPECTED LGT WINDS/PWAT UNDER 0.50
INCH...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE WCENTRAL WHERE WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHTEST
THRU THE NGT. ADDED A MENTION OF FROST AT SOME OF THE COLDER
LOCATIONS...WHERE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL NEAR 32. A RETURN SW FLOW
OVER THE W LATER MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT FM IWD THRU THE KEWEENAW.

TUE...AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE E AND TO A LINE FM
THE SAULT TO NEAR DETROIT BY LATE IN THE DAY UNDER BLDG UPR RDG...A
STRONGER S WIND WL DVLP OVER THE W UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BTWN THE RDG AND FALLING PRES IN THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME MID CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURNING WARM AIR...GFS FCST
SDNGS INDICATE THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY WITH ADVECTION OF LOWER H85
DEWPTS FOR ANY PCPN EVEN FM IWD-CMX. DID INCLUDE SOME LO CHCS POPS
OVER NW LK SUP WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF GENERATE SOME PCPN NEAR FCST WARM
FNT.

TUE NGT...WITH DEEPENING TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...RDG WL BUILD
OVER THE GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW WARM FNT SHIFTING NWD
INTO ONTARIO/NW LK SUP...THESE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER
PORTIONS OF MAINLY THE NW CWA. CONSIDERING FOCUS FOR H85 MSTR RETURN
REMAINING TO THE W AND POSITION OF WARM FNT TO THE NW AS INDICATED
BY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT SHOWN ON THE GFS 300K ISENTROPIC
SFC...OPTED TO KEEP THE LAND AREAS DRY AND MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS OVER
W AND NCNTRL LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
A LO PRES TROF ATTENDANT TO A SHRTWV/SFC LO MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TROF INTO NW ONTARIO AT MID WEEK AND THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN
SHIELD. CONSIDERING THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS...SUSPECT THE
SLOWER 00Z ECMWF/CNDN MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE THU/THU NGT. BUT FOLLOWED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS GIVEN FCST UNCERTAINTY. EXPECT ABV NORMAL TEMPS AT MID
WEEK IN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS COLD FNT TO GRDLY FALL CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOLLOWING THE FROPA AND IN THE NE FLOW TO THE S OF HI PRES
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR S THE FNT MOVES WITH
PERSISTENT MEAN RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...MORE SHRA ARE PSBL THRU SAT
WHEN THIS BNDRY RETURNS N AS A WARM FNT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD BY
LATE SUN MORNING AND AT KCMX BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA INTO THE AREA. FLOW SHIFTING FROM SRLY TO
NNW WILL ALSO AID IN LOWERING CIGS AND PROBABLY VSBYS AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX AS ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS RAIN MOISTENED AIR OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SAW BY
MID-LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO NNW AT KSAW
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER QUICKLY TO IFR AND THEN TO ALT AIRPORT
LANDING MINS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS FOG AND STRATUS MOVES IN OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. ONCE STRATUS/FOG MOVES IN CONDITIONS MAY NOT IMPROVE AT
TAF SITES UNTIL DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING
WITH BUILDING SFC RDG FM THE WEST. EXPECT LLWS AT SAW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A LLJ PASSES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MI.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME STRONGER S WINDS AT THE HIER PLATFORMS OVER
THE E HALF OF LK SUP LIKE STANNARD ROCK EARLY THIS MRNG UNDER A
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER FAR WESTERN LK SUP
AND HI PRES TO THE E...VERY STABLE MARINE LAYER SHOULD LIMIT 10M
WIND SPEEDS TO NO MORE THAN 15 TO 25 KTS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW/SOME FOG IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...BUT
THE NW WIND SHOULD NOT EXCEED 20-25 KTS. THEN HI PRES WILL BRING
LIGHT WINDS INTO WED BEFORE A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 25 KTS DEVELOPS
ON WED INTO THU UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI
DEPARTING TO THE E AND A LO PRES TROF MOVING E FROM THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC

000
FXUS63 KGRR 200731
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

VERY WARM CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER
ANTICIPATED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE POPS/TIMING
FOR CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN OVER OUR
WESTERN FCST AREA (MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF US-131) AS SB CAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS THAT AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVE AND SOME PVA FROM THE SW OCCURS. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR IS WEAK I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE BETTER CHC FOR SCT CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING
WITH FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER AFTER DECENT INSTABILITY
LINGERS THRU MID EVENING WE ANTICIPATE TSTORMS WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY
OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL NOT BE THAT EXTENSIVE
AND A CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE QPF FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE. SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHT THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THE MAIN CHALLENGES DEALS WITH THE DEAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND ALSO THE RISK OF STORMS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION MON EVENING.  BASED ON THIS WILL REMOVE THE PRECIPITATION
AFTER 06Z TUE.  STILL SOME INSTABILITY AROUND 00Z TUE...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN COUNTIES.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE STORMS
PERSISTING FOR THE EVENING.

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THU NIGHT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF MI FRI.  A WARM FRONT THEN ORGANIZES AND TRIES TO LIFT NORTH OF
GRAND RAPIDS SATURDAY.  THESE FRONTS WILL LIKELY POOL UP THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEADING TO ONE OR MORE ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  SUCH SYSTEM
CAN CREATE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGES.  DECENT SHEAR AROUND THU
AND INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES.  THUS ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK TO BECOME ORGANIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL THE TERMINALS THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
MAY REACH KMKG BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 20Z AND AT THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS MENTION AT ALL THE TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS AND WILL FINE TUNE TIMING DETAILS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
FUTURE FCST ISSUANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND THEN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A HAZARD TO
MARINERS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT AND WAVES MAY KICK UP BRIEFLY AS
WINDS VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AGAIN TODAY BUT DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES WILL
BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WAS THE CASE ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WILL HELP TO LOWER THE FIRE DANGER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL NOT BE RATHER
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND 1000-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOES NOT LOOK
CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH IF/WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
FIRE WEATHER...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS

000
FXUS63 KDTX 200655
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY INDUCING A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE
UNIMPRESSIVE, AS A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
SOUTHEAST GRADIENT FLOW OBSERVED THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL GIVE MAX
TEMPS A BIT OF A BOOST FROM YESTERDAY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OF
HIGHS IN UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY/INDIANA
YESTERDAY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED HERE. A COUPLE OF 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL EVEN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED WARMER AREAS SUCH THE SAGINAW VALLEY OR
DETROIT METRO AND POINTS SOUTH. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP AFTERNOON
MIXED LAYER WITHIN THE ALREADY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES
A GENERAL 2-3F BELOW BELOW ACTUAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
TSTORM POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND FRONTAL FORCING RATHER
WEAK...WOULD EXPECT DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO BE MAIN DRIVER IN THE
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL FOCUS IN FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS...50% OR LESS...GIVEN LACK OF FOCUS
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN COOLING OFF
EARLIER OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA WITH HIGHS ON THE LOW/MID 70S...BUT
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF
THE CWA TO PUSH 80 FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THIS COOLER WEATHER HOLDS INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE
AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES BUILD QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND 80S FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS BACK
INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS VARY ON THE
EXTENT TO WHICH THIS SYSTEM FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WITH A RATHER TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO AIRMASSES...CONFIDENCE IN DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE SOMEWHAT LOW. FOR NOW...FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA TO THE MID 80S OR BETTER NEARER THE OHIO STATELINE.

WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM ALSO FOCUSING MUCH OF ITS ENERGY WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN MINIMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR NEARSHORE ZONES TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON`S OPEN WATERS WHERE
CORRESPONDING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH 3 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND ONE FOOT OR LESS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND
OF BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

//DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE CLEAR SKIES
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.  SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL BRING
A PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE 10-12 KNOT RANGE SUNDAY AFTN.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KAPX 200652
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOUTH WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIR INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING...MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD. VERY WARM
WEATHER MAY RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SIGNS OF CHANGE TONIGHT...AS CURRENT CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAKES
THE TURN NORTHEAST...WITH SLOW TO DEPART EASTERN LAKES RIDGING
SUPPLYING THE STEERING MECHANISM. ATTENDANT UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
COLD FRONT ALSO NOW MAKING NOTABLE HEADWAY EAST...KICKING OFF A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AS IT
DOES SO. IN THE MEANTIME...OUR WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY SAID
RIDGING...BRINGING ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. PRE-FRONTAL UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS STILL DEEPLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE LAKE REGION (YEAH...STATING THE OBVIOUS BASED
OFF YESTERDAYS RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S)...AS EVIDENT BY 00Z REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER TEEN H85 TEMPERATURES. WHILE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...NO DOUBT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN DEEP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THUS...LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL NEED ADDRESSING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AND...FOR A WELCOME CHANGE OF PACE...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NEED PLENTY OF ATTENTION TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE NORTH WOODS.

A CHALLENGING FORECAST ON MANY ASPECTS TODAY...FOREMOST BEING
JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES RECOVER...AND HOW LOW AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROP (BOTH OF WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT). ADDRESSING THE FORMER...CAN
FIND LITTLE REASON HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY WILL
NOT OCCUR TODAY...WITH SIMILAR OFF THE DECK TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAY FIND SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND COULD EVEN POP A FEW CU ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER/INTERIOR HIGHLANDS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AT LEAST PARTIALLY
COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL...THESE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...ALLOWING AFTERNOON READINGS ONCE
AGAIN TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED SOUTH FLOW DOWNSLOPE LOCALES. AS FOR DEWPOINTS...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
SUGGESTING NEAR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON. TRAJECTORIES WOULD SUGGEST YESTERDAY`S WESTERN LAKES
AIRMASS...WHERE DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...WILL BE OURS TODAY. THIS ALSO FITS WELL WITH ANTICIPATED
MIXING AT LEAST UP THROUGH H85...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD
SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S/A FEW UPPER
40S...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE DRY AIR HOLDS ON THE
LONGEST. COMBO OF THE ABOVE SUPPORTS INTERIOR NORTHEAST LOWER MIN RH
VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...AND IT APPEARS WE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE ON THE CUSP OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ALREADY HOISTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-55/EAST OF I-75 ON THE LAST
EVENING UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT
OVERLY HIGH ON JUST HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON...
SO WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW THE PROTOCOL OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...RIDING
WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND WAIT FOR COLLABORATION WITH THE
FOREST SERVICE AND DNR (OR RAPIDLY DROPPING DEWPOINTS) TO PULL THE
TRIGGER ON A RED FLAG WARNING.

AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL...GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT ON AT
LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS FORCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WORKS ON NEARLY 2K JOULES/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS TIED TO EARLIER MENTIONED NEAR 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS. ASSUMING A MORE REALISTIC (AT LEAST HOPE SO) LOW TO MID
50 DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY CUTS AVAILABLE CAPE (BY AT LEAST HALF)
AND GENERATES SIGNIFICANT CIN TO OVERCOME. WILL TREND AWAY FROM THE
SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOISTURE ADVECTION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CUTS
ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE 850MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO THE LOWER
TEENS AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO WELL OVER AN INCH...STILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS ON EXTENT OF ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...DECREASING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND A QUICK LOSS OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SURE NOT A RECIPE FOR GOOD RAINS.
MULTI-DAY SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS AS SUCH...WITH FRONTAL PRECIP
DIRECTLY TIED TO AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY MAXIMA.
STILL...SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DECENT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARGUES FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE ATTEMPTED SOME BETTER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION BASED OFF THE
ABOVE...SLOWLY SPREADING RAIN CHANCES EAST THIS EVENING...WITH
AREA-WIDE CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ANY SEVERE THREAT
MINIMAL AT BEST...GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND BEST
MID LEVEL JET CORE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER AND
DELAY OF CAA SUPPORTS ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH READINGS BY MORNING
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

MONDAY...WHILE BOTH NAM AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM
DEPICTS A SLOWING IN EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO AS COMPARED TO
THE STEADY MARCH ACROSS THE STATE AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...MAINLY
BECAUSE OF THE TENDENCY FOR COLD FRONTS TO STALL AS THE DAY HEATS UP
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ENHANCES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONTS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM`S SLOWER SOLUTION...AND IN
DOING SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU 00Z TUESDAY AND
ALSO LINGER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NE LWR MICHIGAN THRU 06Z.
MUCAPES WILL APPROACH 2000 J/KG IN NE LWR MICHIGAN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WANE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WIND
FIELDS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KTS. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 6 TO 6.5 C/KM...AS A MODEST 850 MB THETA E RIDGE SLIDES
OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CERTAINLY LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED BY DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE STATE DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AM NOT EXCITED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS TO THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP/CLOUD
COVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO
MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL SERVE AS A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WE EXPERIENCED THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND (MORE ON THIS BELOW).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO UPR MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL
GENERALLY IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL HOLD OVER THE NRN PLAINS THRU NEXT WEEKEND ALONG
THE NW PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SRN GREAT LAKES. HARD
TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL...BUT FIRST GUESS IS IN
THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND
CHANCES OF PRECIP AROUND THE FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...TEMPS COULD BECOME QUITE WARM AS PROJECTED BY 850 MB TEMPS
OF +18C TO +22C PER ECMWF. WILL NOT COMPLETELY BITE ON THIS
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE FOR NOW...KEEPING PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN. TEMPS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE ONLY IN THE 60S IF CLOUDS AN PRECIP
ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1050 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL WEAKEN
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE
LEADING TO MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTINESS.

UPSTREAM FRONT FINALLY MAKES A PUSH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT...AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP LATE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN LAKES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE ISOLATED SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SCA/S...HOWEVER.
THE COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...MB

000
FXUS63 KMQT 200516
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
116 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AS THE UPPER
GREAT LKS REGION WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT IN
ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW THROUGH MN AND INTO
NEB/KS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM AIR ALOFT ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF UPPER MI THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LK MI...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S. SOME OF THE WARM SPOTS SO FAR
ARE HARVEY AT 91...NMU/KENTON/PELKIE AT 90...AND SEVERAL OTHERS
AROUND 88. THESE WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S
AND SSW WINDS OF 15-25MPH TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR PORTIONS OF WRN
AND NCNTRL UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z.

TONIGHT...STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER NRN/ERN MN AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET REMAINING OVER NW MN
TONIGHT...WHICH ALIGNS WITH H700-500 Q-VECTOR CONV. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING NE THROUGH MN. STORM MOTION TONIGHT TO THE NE AT 30KTS AND
WITH LIMITED PUSH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY FOCUSED OVER ERN MN AND TRYING TO EDGE
INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVES
PUSH NE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TRYING TO BRUSH THE FAR WRN LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT DON/T
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT POPS.

WITH AREA UNDER THE WARM SECTOR AND PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS
UP...EXPECT LOWS TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.

SUN...SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL STAY MAINLY OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR AND ERN MN THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. BUT MODELS CONSISTENT ON MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH IOWA AND SRN MN SUN MORNING AND INTO THE WRN CWA
IN THE AFTN...JUST AHEAD OF THE H500 TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT SLIDING E THROUGH THE WRN CWA AND LOW CENTER THAT SLIDES NE
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE POPS
AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY FASTER
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE CWA. WITH RIGHT REAR OF UPPER JET OVER THE WRN
CWA TOMORROW AFTN AND BEST DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONV AND MOISTURE
OVER NW LK SUPERIOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE NW HALF OF THE CWA.

SPC ADDED A HEIGHTENED RISK...5 PERCENT...TO UPPER MI FOR THEIR DAY
2 OUTLOOK LAST NIGHT AND CONTINUED INTO THE AFTN UPDATE. MODELS
SHOWING ML CAPE VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 500-1500 J/KG...WITH THE
TRADITIONALLY OVERDONE NAM AGAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. CAPE IS FAIRLY
SKINNY AND FZING LVLS AROUND 13KFT MAY LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT
WBZ OF 9KFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IF
STORMS DEVELOP. BUT WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY AROUND 30KTS RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT...DON/T EXPECT MUCH MUCH TILT TO THE STORMS. AS FOR
WIND...MID LVL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND MOISTENING OF
THE H700-500 AIR WOULD LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...EVEN WITH
H850-700 WINDS OF 30-45KTS. MODEL DCAPE VALUES ALSO NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE /AROUND A COUPLE HUNDRED/...SO LIKE THE HAIL
THREAT...BELIEVE WIND POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LIMITED. THINK BEST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
W-CNTRL UPPER MI WHERE DECENT HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL SEVERE CHANCES ARE LOW. FINALLY...DID
DIMINISH THUNDER CHANCES QUICKER OVER THE WEST DURING THE AFTN...AS
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GONE BEHIND THE FRONT.

HIGHS ARE TRICKY TOMORROW WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS/PCPN/LK INFLUENCES
ALL AFFECTING TEMPS. EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH HEATING OVER
THE SCNTRL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S WITH THE WARM START AND SOME INITIAL SUNSHINE. SHOULD SEE LOWER
80S ELSEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST AWAY FROM MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LK MI. OVER THE WEST...HIGHS /IN THE 70S/ WILL BE IN
THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN FALLING INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTN
BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTN AS THE SHOWERS PUSH E AND INCREASING CLOUDS
MODERATE TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH EDGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z MON.
THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE
EAST MONDAY NIGHT. A 500 MB RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. NAM SHOWS 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT
THE SAME THING. ONE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS SPED UP THE POPS
MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR
GOING TEMPERATURES.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE3 OVER THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING IN
THE WESTERN U.S. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THU AND BEYOND EXCEPT TO PUT THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE RING OF FIRE SCENARIO
FOR CONVECTION. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN...BUT NOT REAL
HIGH CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WILL BE VERY HARD TO TIME THESE AND MOST
OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE SFC
FRONTS. ECMWF SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GETTING UP TO 18C ON THU AND
18C-20C ON FRI AND SAT. WILL KEEP THE POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR WEST
HALF OF THE CWA AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE POPS AS THEY TEND TO DO IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS
WHERE THE RING OF FIRE ENDS UP STAYING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
INSTEAD AND WE END UP BEING CAPPED AND IN THE WARM SECTOR. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE.
ENDED UP GOING WITH WARMER HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS
CONSALL AND ALLBLEND LOOKED WAY TOO COLD AND THAT HAS BEEN THE TREND
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD BY
LATE SUN MORNING AND AT KCMX BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA INTO THE AREA. FLOW SHIFTING FROM SRLY TO
NNW WILL ALSO AID IN LOWERING CIGS AND PROBABLY VSBYS AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX AS ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS RAIN MOISTENED AIR OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SAW BY
MID-LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO NNW AT KSAW
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER QUICKLY TO IFR AND THEN TO ALT AIRPORT
LANDING MINS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS FOG AND STRATUS MOVES IN OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. ONCE STRATUS/FOG MOVES IN CONDITIONS MAY NOT IMPROVE AT
TAF SITES UNTIL DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING
WITH BUILDING SFC RDG FM THE WEST. EXPECT LLWS AT SAW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A LLJ PASSES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MI.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25KTS OVER SRN LK SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A 29.7 INCH LOW IN SW ONTARIO WILL SHIFT NE TO HUDSON BAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY INTO TUES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE
IN THE NRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON WED AND
LEAD TO SERLY WINDS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF

000
FXUS63 KAPX 200507
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
107 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTH WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIR INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND
WARM.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

INHERITED FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH FEW CHANGES WARRANTED.
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH READINGS BY MORNING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

LITTLE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
NRN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
WORKING ACROSS WISCONSIN (EVIDENCED BY DEVELOPING BAND OF CLOUD
COVER IN EASTERN WISCONSIN) WILL FOLD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT/
SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATER TONIGHT AS A
RESULT. BUT THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AFTER DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING TAPS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ALOFT. STILL THINKING MIN RH VALUES WILL
TEETER ON RED FLAG CRITERIA AND HENCE WE/VE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

WARM...FANTASTIC SUMMER (ER...SPRING) EVENING IN PROGRESS ACROSS
THE NORTH WOODS. CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS IN THE 80S AND A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL EASE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT ALLOWING UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL THETA-E PLUME TO BEGIN FOLDING
INTO THE REGION FOR TOMORROW. EXPECT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD
START TO CREEP UPWARD LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WORKS INTO THE REGION.

BUT FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AS SFC WINDS RELAX...TEMPS
WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE 60S BY LATE EVENING AND ULTIMATELY THE 50S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
BEGINNING TO FALL AS UPPER TROF ADVANCES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO INCH UPWARD IN DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE BY MORNING...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS WEST OF I-75.

THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  EXPANSIVE CU FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS TODAY IS THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY.  NO QUESTION WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUDINESS ON
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPES OVER
2000 J/KG WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.
MINIMAL LAKE INFLUENCES WITH REGARD TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...
WITH 950MB WINDS AROUND 20KTS.  IT APPEARS THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND GAYLORD DRIVEN PRIMARILY
BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.  BY
SUNDAY EVENING...ADDITIONAL SHOWER/TSTMS CHANCES MAY DEVELOP BEYOND
THIS AREA...HELPED ALONG BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY GIVEN MORE DIURNAL CU AND POSSIBLY SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY GIVEN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WINDS REMAIN SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH MORE QUIET WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. EARLY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR FEATURE OF INTEREST AS WE
BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
SAID UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
STILL NOT OVERLY THRILLED WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE WESTERN CWA...AS EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY WANE WITH TIME AS IT OUTRUNS
ITS INSTABILITY WHILE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

MAY SEE JUST THE REMNANTS OF SUCH ACTIVITY SKIRT NORTHWEST LOWER
INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
FIRING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING/
MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MAXIMIZED WITH
SOME LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME CONCERN
(SEE ABOVE) THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER...BUT THINKING REGARDING PRECIP
COVERAGE WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGHS CERTAINLY MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND THERMAL TROUGHING ENTERING THE PICTURE (H8 TEMPS
DOWN TOWARD 7C)...WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WEST TO
LIKELY LOW/MID 70S EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A RETURN TO A VERY
QUIET AND POTENTIALLY VERY WARM (NEAR RECORD SETTING?) WEATHER
PATTERN INCREASINGLY APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL COME AS DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN STATES...ALL
WHILE HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM AND NORTH OF MEANDERING
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY...
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE HISTORIC MARCH
PATTERN EXPERIENCED A FEW MONTHS AGO...ONLY THIS GO AROUND...IT`S
LATE MAY (HIGHER SUN ANGLE...ETC.). GFS REMAINS A CONSISTENT OUTLIER
BRINGING ENERGY IN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER IDEA (AND MORE
TYPICALLY SNIFF THESE PATTERNS OUT WELL IN ADVANCE)...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

WITH THIS IDEA IN MIND...WILL RUN WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
RIGHT ON THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH SUPPOSE A ROGUE SHOWER/T-STORM
THREAT MAY ENTER THE PICTURE TOWARD NEXT SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES AND OVERALL LIGHT WIND REGIME PERHAPS ALLOWS FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. OTHERWISE...HIGHS SHOULD
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT MANY SPOTS COULD EASILY MAKE A RUN AT 90+ BY NEXT
FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ONGOING VERY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. JUST FOR KICKS...CURRENT RECORDS HEADING INTO
FRI/SAT ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. WE SHALL SEE...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1050 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL WEAKEN
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE
LEADING TO MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTINESS.

UPSTREAM FRONT FINALLY MAKES A PUSH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT...AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP LATE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTHERLY WINDS...AT TIMES GUSTY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20KTS
POSSIBLE. SOME LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORE FROM PRESQUE ISLE SOUTH TOWARD ALPENA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS CONTINUE...MAINLY DUE TO TEMPS AND LOW
RH VALUES. WIND GUSTS ARE MARGINALLY REACHING CRITERIA. EXPECT
TEMPS/WINDS TO DROP BACK BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT LONG AFTER
SUNSET...AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL RED FLAG WARNING BEFORE
THE CURRENT 11 PM EXPIRATION TIME.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MB
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...BA
FIRE WEATHER...BA
MARINE...JK

000
FXUS63 KGRR 200456
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS IN STORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FOR EARLY THIS WEEK... BUT ANOTHER WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A DRY FCST
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY BUT THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z SUNDAY IN THE WRN
GRR CWFA.

THERE IS CURRENTLY A N-S ORIENTED H5 VORTICITY LOBE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MN/IA/MO THAT WILL BE DRIFTING THIS WAY ON SUNDAY
AND INTERACTING WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CAPES NEAR 2500
J/KG. DO NOT WANT TO SPOIL THE COMPLETELY POP FREE WEEKEND... BUT
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CARRY AT LEAST A SLGT CHC POP LATE
IN THE DAY IN WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA ON SUNDAY.

POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT...
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE... AND BETTER MOISTURE COMES INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WANE... PARTICULARLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT... SO A SCATTERED LINE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. WILL THEREFORE HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEST  OF
HWY 131 ON SUNDAY NIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY AND AGAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

TSRA SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AND HOLDS ONTO THE PCPN THROUGH THE DAY. A DRY COUPLE OF
DAYS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE STATE. TUESDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 70. FROST
MAY BE A PLAYER NORTH OF US-10 TUESDAY NIGHT IF TEMPS COME IN A BIT
COOLER THAN THE LOWER-MID 40S CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

A SLOW WARMING TREND THEN CONTINUES INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE AT
ODDS AS TO WHETHER A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME.
THE GFS FAVORS FROPA AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT NEAR THE STRAITS.
NOT SOLD YET ON THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE GFS KEEPS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE FRONT FROM SAGGING SOUTH.
WE/LL KEEP THE MENTION OF TSRA IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL THE TERMINALS THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
MAY REACH KMKG BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 20Z AND AT THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY VCTS MENTION AT ALL THE TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND
WILL FINE TUNE TIMING DETAILS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH FUTURE FCST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY... IN BOTH THE SOUTH FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THE NORTH FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER THE ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AND BRIEF PERIOD OF DECENT
NORTH FLOW JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT COULD CREATE SOME
ISSUES/CONCERNS FOR MARINERS FOR A TIME.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SFC RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PCT AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. FORTUNATELY THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA AT MOST OB SITES. THE FIRE DANGER WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AS TEMPS COOL OFF. SUNDAY WILL BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN
TODAY... BUT DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT... BUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF/WHERE HEAVIER
CELLS DEVELOP. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS
TIME... BUT WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...WDM
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE

000
FXUS63 KDTX 200358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE CLEAR SKIES
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.  SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL BRING
A PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE 10-12 KNOT RANGE SUNDAY AFTN.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE SURFACE RIDGE BUBBLE ENCAPSULATING
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. THIS IS SOMEWHAT LONGER
THAN EXPECTED AS SOLUTIONS FROM RECENT DAYS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING THE
THE MEAT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WOULD ALREADY HAVE MOVED
IN. THIS MAKES AN EASTERLY TRAJECTORY MORE OF A PLAYER FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE LAKE ERIE MARINE LAYER WILL
RELEASE...NOCTURNALLY...AND PINWHEEL NORTHWARD CLIPPING MUCH OF THE
THUMB REGION. A REFLECTION OF THE RETURN FLOW ON A REGIONAL
PERSPECTIVE HAS THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIRMASS REMAINING BACK ACROSS
ILLINOIS. AS A RESULT...FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING A SMIDGE LOWER ON
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS RESIDING IN
THE THUMB. EXPECT VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS/LOW 50S FOR
THE EASTERN THUMB.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WAVE SHEARING OUT AS IT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THIS WAVE SHOULD HOWEVER HELP BREAK DOWN THE
QUASI REX BLOCK NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND WILL SEND AN
ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE STATE ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. A FEW 90S DO NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION WHEN OBSERVING
CURRENT TEMPS UPSTREAM. SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF LAKE MI
ON SUNDAY MAY TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION AS INSTABILITY BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE. SE MI HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO
THE EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL WARRANT A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUN NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE GOOD SFC-850MB FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS FRONT AS
IT WORKS INTO LOWER MI LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT INDICATE THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION FALLING APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION ALONG
THE RESIDUAL SFC FRONT AS THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS SE MI MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
US BY MIDWEEK AS AN IMPRESSIVE 140-160 KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXPAND ACROSS ERN NOAM...SENDING TEMPS ABOVE TO POSSIBLY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SUITE INVOLVE THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF LEAD SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRACKING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO ERN CANADA AND THE
PLACEMENT OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST...WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE OVERALL ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CNTL/ERN US. THESE DIFFERENCES ADD A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS SE MI AND WHETHER OR NOT THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY.

MARINE...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN WITH REGARD TO WINDS AND WAVES AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KAPX 200251
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1051 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTH WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIR INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND
WARM.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

LITTLE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
NRN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
WORKING ACROSS WISCONSIN (EVIDENCED BY DEVELOPING BAND OF CLOUD
COVER IN EASTERN WISCONSIN) WILL FOLD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT/
SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATER TONIGHT AS A
RESULT. BUT THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AFTER DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING TAPS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ALOFT. STILL THINKING MIN RH VALUES WILL
TEETER ON RED FLAG CRITERIA AND HENCE WE/VE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

WARM...FANTASTIC SUMMER (ER...SPRING) EVENING IN PROGRESS ACROSS
THE NORTH WOODS. CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS IN THE 80S AND A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL EASE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT ALLOWING UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL THETA-E PLUME TO BEGIN FOLDING
INTO THE REGION FOR TOMORROW. EXPECT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD
START TO CREEP UPWARD LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WORKS INTO THE REGION.

BUT FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AS SFC WINDS RELAX...TEMPS
WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE 60S BY LATE EVENING AND ULTIMATELY THE 50S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
BEGINNING TO FALL AS UPPER TROF ADVANCES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO INCH UPWARD IN DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE BY MORNING...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS WEST OF I-75.

THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  EXPANSIVE CU FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS TODAY IS THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY.  NO QUESTION WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUDINESS ON
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPES OVER
2000 J/KG WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.
MINIMAL LAKE INFLUENCES WITH REGARD TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...
WITH 950MB WINDS AROUND 20KTS.  IT APPEARS THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND GAYLORD DRIVEN PRIMARILY
BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.  BY
SUNDAY EVENING...ADDITIONAL SHOWER/TSTMS CHANCES MAY DEVELOP BEYOND
THIS AREA...HELPED ALONG BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY GIVEN MORE DIURNAL CU AND POSSIBLY SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY GIVEN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WINDS REMAIN SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH MORE QUIET WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. EARLY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR FEATURE OF INTEREST AS WE
BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
SAID UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
STILL NOT OVERLY THRILLED WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE WESTERN CWA...AS EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY WANE WITH TIME AS IT OUTRUNS
ITS INSTABILITY WHILE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

MAY SEE JUST THE REMNANTS OF SUCH ACTIVITY SKIRT NORTHWEST LOWER
INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
FIRING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING/
MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MAXIMIZED WITH
SOME LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME CONCERN
(SEE ABOVE) THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER...BUT THINKING REGARDING PRECIP
COVERAGE WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGHS CERTAINLY MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND THERMAL TROUGHING ENTERING THE PICTURE (H8 TEMPS
DOWN TOWARD 7C)...WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WEST TO
LIKELY LOW/MID 70S EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A RETURN TO A VERY
QUIET AND POTENTIALLY VERY WARM (NEAR RECORD SETTING?) WEATHER
PATTERN INCREASINGLY APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL COME AS DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN STATES...ALL
WHILE HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM AND NORTH OF MEANDERING
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY...
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE HISTORIC MARCH
PATTERN EXPERIENCED A FEW MONTHS AGO...ONLY THIS GO AROUND...IT`S
LATE MAY (HIGHER SUN ANGLE...ETC.). GFS REMAINS A CONSISTENT OUTLIER
BRINGING ENERGY IN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER IDEA (AND MORE
TYPICALLY SNIFF THESE PATTERNS OUT WELL IN ADVANCE)...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

WITH THIS IDEA IN MIND...WILL RUN WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
RIGHT ON THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH SUPPOSE A ROGUE SHOWER/T-STORM
THREAT MAY ENTER THE PICTURE TOWARD NEXT SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES AND OVERALL LIGHT WIND REGIME PERHAPS ALLOWS FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. OTHERWISE...HIGHS SHOULD
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT MANY SPOTS COULD EASILY MAKE A RUN AT 90+ BY NEXT
FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ONGOING VERY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. JUST FOR KICKS...CURRENT RECORDS HEADING INTO
FRI/SAT ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. WE SHALL SEE...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1050 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL WEAKEN
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE
LEADING TO MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTINESS.

UPSTREAM FRONT FINALLY MAKES A PUSH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT...AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTHERLY WINDS...AT TIMES GUSTY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20KTS
POSSIBLE. SOME LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORE FROM PRESQUE ISLE SOUTH TOWARD ALPENA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS CONTINUE...MAINLY DUE TO TEMPS AND LOW
RH VALUES. WIND GUSTS ARE MARGINALLY REACHING CRITERIA. EXPECT
TEMPS/WINDS TO DROP BACK BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT LONG AFTER
SUNSET...AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL RED FLAG WARNING BEFORE
THE CURRENT 11 PM EXPIRATION TIME.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...BA
FIRE WEATHER...BA
MARINE...JK

000
FXUS63 KGRR 192351
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
751 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS IN STORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FOR EARLY THIS WEEK... BUT ANOTHER WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A DRY FCST
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY BUT THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z SUNDAY IN THE WRN
GRR CWFA.

THERE IS CURRENTLY A N-S ORIENTED H5 VORTICITY LOBE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MN/IA/MO THAT WILL BE DRIFTING THIS WAY ON SUNDAY
AND INTERACTING WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CAPES NEAR 2500
J/KG. DO NOT WANT TO SPOIL THE COMPLETELY POP FREE WEEKEND... BUT
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CARRY AT LEAST A SLGT CHC POP LATE
IN THE DAY IN WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA ON SUNDAY.

POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT...
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE... AND BETTER MOISTURE COMES INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WANE... PARTICULARLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT... SO A SCATTERED LINE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. WILL THEREFORE HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEST  OF
HWY 131 ON SUNDAY NIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY AND AGAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

TSRA SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AND HOLDS ONTO THE PCPN THROUGH THE DAY. A DRY COUPLE OF
DAYS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE STATE. TUESDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 70. FROST
MAY BE A PLAYER NORTH OF US-10 TUESDAY NIGHT IF TEMPS COME IN A BIT
COOLER THAN THE LOWER-MID 40S CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

A SLOW WARMING TREND THEN CONTINUES INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE AT
ODDS AS TO WHETHER A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME.
THE GFS FAVORS FROPA AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT NEAR THE STRAITS.
NOT SOLD YET ON THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE GFS KEEPS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE FRONT FROM SAGGING SOUTH.
WE/LL KEEP THE MENTION OF TSRA IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

I AM IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. I ALSO AGREE WITH THE
IDEA SOME CONVECTION... AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT... COULD REACH THE
WESTERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. FOR THAT REASON I PUT VCTS IN THE
TAFS FOR MKG...GRR AZO AND BTL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE
EVENT GETS CLOSER WE WILL INCREASE DETAILS ON THIS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY... IN BOTH THE SOUTH FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THE NORTH FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER THE ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AND BRIEF PERIOD OF DECENT
NORTH FLOW JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT COULD CREATE SOME
ISSUES/CONCERNS FOR MARINERS FOR A TIME.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SFC RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PCT AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. FORTUNATELY THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA AT MOST OB SITES. THE FIRE DANGER WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AS TEMPS COOL OFF. SUNDAY WILL BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN
TODAY... BUT DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT... BUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF/WHERE HEAVIER
CELLS DEVELOP. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS
TIME... BUT WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...WDM
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE

000
FXUS63 KAPX 192344
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
744 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTH WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIR INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND
WARM.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

WARM...FANTASTIC SUMMER (ER...SPRING) EVENING IN PROGRESS ACROSS
THE NORTH WOODS. CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS IN THE 80S AND A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL EASE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT ALLOWING UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL THETA-E PLUME TO BEGIN FOLDING
INTO THE REGION FOR TOMORROW. EXPECT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD
START TO CREEP UPWARD LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WORKS INTO THE REGION.

BUT FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AS SFC WINDS RELAX...TEMPS
WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE 60S BY LATE EVENING AND ULTIMATELY THE 50S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
BEGINNING TO FALL AS UPPER TROF ADVANCES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO INCH UPWARD IN DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE BY MORNING...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS WEST OF I-75.

THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  EXPANSIVE CU FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS TODAY IS THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY.  NO QUESTION WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUDINESS ON
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPES OVER
2000 J/KG WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.
MINIMAL LAKE INFLUENCES WITH REGARD TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...
WITH 950MB WINDS AROUND 20KTS.  IT APPEARS THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND GAYLORD DRIVEN PRIMARILY
BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.  BY
SUNDAY EVENING...ADDITIONAL SHOWER/TSTMS CHANCES MAY DEVELOP BEYOND
THIS AREA...HELPED ALONG BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY GIVEN MORE DIURNAL CU AND POSSIBLY SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY GIVEN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WINDS REMAIN SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH MORE QUIET WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. EARLY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR FEATURE OF INTEREST AS WE
BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
SAID UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
STILL NOT OVERLY THRILLED WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE WESTERN CWA...AS EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY WANE WITH TIME AS IT OUTRUNS
ITS INSTABILITY WHILE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

MAY SEE JUST THE REMNANTS OF SUCH ACTIVITY SKIRT NORTHWEST LOWER
INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
FIRING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING/
MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MAXIMIZED WITH
SOME LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME CONCERN
(SEE ABOVE) THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER...BUT THINKING REGARDING PRECIP
COVERAGE WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGHS CERTAINLY MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND THERMAL TROUGHING ENTERING THE PICTURE (H8 TEMPS
DOWN TOWARD 7C)...WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WEST TO
LIKELY LOW/MID 70S EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A RETURN TO A VERY
QUIET AND POTENTIALLY VERY WARM (NEAR RECORD SETTING?) WEATHER
PATTERN INCREASINGLY APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL COME AS DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN STATES...ALL
WHILE HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM AND NORTH OF MEANDERING
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY...
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE HISTORIC MARCH
PATTERN EXPERIENCED A FEW MONTHS AGO...ONLY THIS GO AROUND...IT`S
LATE MAY (HIGHER SUN ANGLE...ETC.). GFS REMAINS A CONSISTENT OUTLIER
BRINGING ENERGY IN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER IDEA (AND MORE
TYPICALLY SNIFF THESE PATTERNS OUT WELL IN ADVANCE)...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

WITH THIS IDEA IN MIND...WILL RUN WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
RIGHT ON THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH SUPPOSE A ROGUE SHOWER/T-STORM
THREAT MAY ENTER THE PICTURE TOWARD NEXT SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES AND OVERALL LIGHT WIND REGIME PERHAPS ALLOWS FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. OTHERWISE...HIGHS SHOULD
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT MANY SPOTS COULD EASILY MAKE A RUN AT 90+ BY NEXT
FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ONGOING VERY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. JUST FOR KICKS...CURRENT RECORDS HEADING INTO
FRI/SAT ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. WE SHALL SEE...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL WEAKEN
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE
LEADING TO MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTINESS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTHERLY WINDS...AT TIMES GUSTY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20KTS
POSSIBLE. SOME LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORE FROM PRESQUE ISLE SOUTH TOWARD ALPENA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS CONTINUE...MAINLY DUE TO TEMPS AND LOW
RH VALUES. WIND GUSTS ARE MARGINALLY REACHING CRITERIA. EXPECT
TEMPS/WINDS TO DROP BACK BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT LONG AFTER
SUNSET...AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL RED FLAG WARNING BEFORE
THE CURRENT 11 PM EXPIRATION TIME.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>019-
     021>024-026>030-032>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...BA
FIRE WEATHER...BA
MARINE...JK

000
FXUS63 KMQT 192338
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
738 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AS THE UPPER
GREAT LKS REGION WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT IN
ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW THROUGH MN AND INTO
NEB/KS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM AIR ALOFT ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF UPPER MI THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LK MI...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S. SOME OF THE WARM SPOTS SO FAR
ARE HARVEY AT 91...NMU/KENTON/PELKIE AT 90...AND SEVERAL OTHERS
AROUND 88. THESE WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S
AND SSW WINDS OF 15-25MPH TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR PORTIONS OF WRN
AND NCNTRL UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z.

TONIGHT...STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER NRN/ERN MN AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET REMAINING OVER NW MN
TONIGHT...WHICH ALIGNS WITH H700-500 Q-VECTOR CONV. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING NE THROUGH MN. STORM MOTION TONIGHT TO THE NE AT 30KTS AND
WITH LIMITED PUSH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY FOCUSED OVER ERN MN AND TRYING TO EDGE
INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVES
PUSH NE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TRYING TO BRUSH THE FAR WRN LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT DON/T
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT POPS.

WITH AREA UNDER THE WARM SECTOR AND PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS
UP...EXPECT LOWS TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.

SUN...SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL STAY MAINLY OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR AND ERN MN THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. BUT MODELS CONSISTENT ON MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH IOWA AND SRN MN SUN MORNING AND INTO THE WRN CWA
IN THE AFTN...JUST AHEAD OF THE H500 TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT SLIDING E THROUGH THE WRN CWA AND LOW CENTER THAT SLIDES NE
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE POPS
AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY FASTER
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE CWA. WITH RIGHT REAR OF UPPER JET OVER THE WRN
CWA TOMORROW AFTN AND BEST DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONV AND MOISTURE
OVER NW LK SUPERIOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE NW HALF OF THE CWA.

SPC ADDED A HEIGHTENED RISK...5 PERCENT...TO UPPER MI FOR THEIR DAY
2 OUTLOOK LAST NIGHT AND CONTINUED INTO THE AFTN UPDATE. MODELS
SHOWING ML CAPE VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 500-1500 J/KG...WITH THE
TRADITIONALLY OVERDONE NAM AGAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. CAPE IS FAIRLY
SKINNY AND FZING LVLS AROUND 13KFT MAY LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT
WBZ OF 9KFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IF
STORMS DEVELOP. BUT WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY AROUND 30KTS RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT...DON/T EXPECT MUCH MUCH TILT TO THE STORMS. AS FOR
WIND...MID LVL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND MOISTENING OF
THE H700-500 AIR WOULD LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...EVEN WITH
H850-700 WINDS OF 30-45KTS. MODEL DCAPE VALUES ALSO NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE /AROUND A COUPLE HUNDRED/...SO LIKE THE HAIL
THREAT...BELIEVE WIND POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LIMITED. THINK BEST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
W-CNTRL UPPER MI WHERE DECENT HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL SEVERE CHANCES ARE LOW. FINALLY...DID
DIMINISH THUNDER CHANCES QUICKER OVER THE WEST DURING THE AFTN...AS
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GONE BEHIND THE FRONT.

HIGHS ARE TRICKY TOMORROW WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS/PCPN/LK INFLUENCES
ALL AFFECTING TEMPS. EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH HEATING OVER
THE SCNTRL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S WITH THE WARM START AND SOME INITIAL SUNSHINE. SHOULD SEE LOWER
80S ELSEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST AWAY FROM MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LK MI. OVER THE WEST...HIGHS /IN THE 70S/ WILL BE IN
THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN FALLING INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTN
BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTN AS THE SHOWERS PUSH E AND INCREASING CLOUDS
MODERATE TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH EDGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z MON.
THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE
EAST MONDAY NIGHT. A 500 MB RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. NAM SHOWS 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT
THE SAME THING. ONE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS SPED UP THE POPS
MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR
GOING TEMPERATURES.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE3 OVER THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING IN
THE WESTERN U.S. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THU AND BEYOND EXCEPT TO PUT THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE RING OF FIRE SCENARIO
FOR CONVECTION. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN...BUT NOT REAL
HIGH CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WILL BE VERY HARD TO TIME THESE AND MOST
OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE SFC
FRONTS. ECMWF SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GETTING UP TO 18C ON THU AND
18C-20C ON FRI AND SAT. WILL KEEP THE POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR WEST
HALF OF THE CWA AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE POPS AS THEY TEND TO DO IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS
WHERE THE RING OF FIRE ENDS UP STAYING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
INSTEAD AND WE END UP BEING CAPPED AND IN THE WARM SECTOR. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE.
ENDED UP GOING WITH WARMER HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS
CONSALL AND ALLBLEND LOOKED WAY TOO COLD AND THAT HAS BEEN THE TREND
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
THE TAF SITES. LLWS IS LIKELY TONIGHT AT SAW AS A LLJ PASSES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MI. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO ALL SITES...BEGINNING AT
IWD LATE TONIGHT AND SPREADING EASTWARD TO SAW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRING VIS TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE A MINORITY AMONG THE REST. ALSO...FORECAST MVFR
CIGS MAY END UP BEING LOWER AT IWD AND CMX GIVEN THAT FLOW OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD PUSH ANY FOG/INCREASED MOISTURE
ONTO LAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL SCOUR OUT ANY FOG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25KTS OVER SRN LK SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A 29.7 INCH LOW IN SW ONTARIO WILL SHIFT NE TO HUDSON BAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY INTO TUES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE
IN THE NRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON WED AND
LEAD TO SERLY WINDS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002-004-005-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...SRF

000
FXUS63 KDTX 192244
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
644 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.  SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIEN WILL BRING A
PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE 10-12 KNOT RANGE SUNDAY AFTN.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE SURFACE RIDGE BUBBLE ENCAPSULATING
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. THIS IS SOMEWHAT LONGER
THAN EXPECTED AS SOLUTIONS FROM RECENT DAYS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING THE
THE MEAT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WOULD ALREADY HAVE MOVED
IN. THIS MAKES AN EASTERLY TRAJECTORY MORE OF A PLAYER FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE LAKE ERIE MARINE LAYER WILL
RELEASE...NOCTURNALLY...AND PINWHEEL NORTHWARD CLIPPING MUCH OF THE
THUMB REGION. A REFLECTION OF THE RETURN FLOW ON A REGIONAL
PERSPECTIVE HAS THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIRMASS REMAINING BACK ACROSS
ILLINOIS. AS A RESULT...FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING A SMIDGE LOWER ON
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS RESIDING IN
THE THUMB. EXPECT VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS/LOW 50S FOR
THE EASTERN THUMB.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WAVE SHEARING OUT AS IT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THIS WAVE SHOULD HOWEVER HELP BREAK DOWN THE
QUASI REX BLOCK NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND WILL SEND AN
ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE STATE ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. A FEW 90S DO NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION WHEN OBSERVING
CURRENT TEMPS UPSTREAM. SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF LAKE MI
ON SUNDAY MAY TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION AS INSTABILITY BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE. SE MI HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO
THE EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL WARRANT A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUN NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE GOOD SFC-850MB FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS FRONT AS
IT WORKS INTO LOWER MI LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT INDICATE THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION FALLING APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION ALONG
THE RESIDUAL SFC FRONT AS THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS SE MI MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
US BY MIDWEEK AS AN IMPRESSIVE 140-160 KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXPAND ACROSS ERN NOAM...SENDING TEMPS ABOVE TO POSSIBLY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SUITE INVOLVE THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF LEAD SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRACKING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO ERN CANADA AND THE
PLACEMENT OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST...WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE OVERALL ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CNTL/ERN US. THESE DIFFERENCES ADD A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS SE MI AND WHETHER OR NOT THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY.

MARINE...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN WITH REGARD TO WINDS AND WAVES AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KMQT 192008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AS THE UPPER
GREAT LKS REGION WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT IN
ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW THROUGH MN AND INTO
NEB/KS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM AIR ALOFT ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF UPPER MI THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LK MI...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S. SOME OF THE WARM SPOTS SO FAR
ARE HARVEY AT 91...NMU/KENTON/PELKIE AT 90...AND SEVERAL OTHERS
AROUND 88. THESE WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S
AND SSW WINDS OF 15-25MPH TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR PORTIONS OF WRN
AND NCNTRL UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z.

TONIGHT...STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER NRN/ERN MN AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET REMAINING OVER NW MN
TONIGHT...WHICH ALIGNS WITH H700-500 Q-VECTOR CONV. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING NE THROUGH MN. STORM MOTION TONIGHT TO THE NE AT 30KTS AND
WITH LIMITED PUSH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY FOCUSED OVER ERN MN AND TRYING TO EDGE
INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVES
PUSH NE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TRYING TO BRUSH THE FAR WRN LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT DON/T
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT POPS.

WITH AREA UNDER THE WARM SECTOR AND PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS
UP...EXPECT LOWS TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.

SUN...SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL STAY MAINLY OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR AND ERN MN THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. BUT MODELS CONSISTENT ON MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH IOWA AND SRN MN SUN MORNING AND INTO THE WRN CWA
IN THE AFTN...JUST AHEAD OF THE H500 TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT SLIDING E THROUGH THE WRN CWA AND LOW CENTER THAT SLIDES NE
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE POPS
AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY FASTER
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE CWA. WITH RIGHT REAR OF UPPER JET OVER THE WRN
CWA TOMORROW AFTN AND BEST DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONV AND MOISTURE
OVER NW LK SUPERIOR...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE NW HALF OF THE CWA.

SPC ADDED A HEIGHTENED RISK...5 PERCENT...TO UPPER MI FOR THEIR DAY
2 OUTLOOK LAST NIGHT AND CONTINUED INTO THE AFTN UPDATE. MODELS
SHOWING ML CAPE VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 500-1500 J/KG...WITH THE
TRADITIONALLY OVERDONE NAM AGAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. CAPE IS FAIRLY
SKINNY AND FZING LVLS AROUND 13KFT MAY LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT
WBZ OF 9KFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IF
STORMS DEVELOP. BUT WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY AROUND 30KTS RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT...DON/T EXPECT MUCH MUCH TILT TO THE STORMS. AS FOR
WIND...MID LVL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND MOISTENING OF
THE H700-500 AIR WOULD LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...EVEN WITH
H850-700 WINDS OF 30-45KTS. MODEL DCAPE VALUES ALSO NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE /AROUND A COUPLE HUNDRED/...SO LIKE THE HAIL
THREAT...BELIEVE WIND POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LIMITED. THINK BEST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
W-CNTRL UPPER MI WHERE DECENT HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL SEVERE CHANCES ARE LOW. FINALLY...DID
DIMINISH THUNDER CHANCES QUICKER OVER THE WEST DURING THE AFTN...AS
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GONE BEHIND THE FRONT.

HIGHS ARE TRICKY TOMORROW WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS/PCPN/LK INFLUENCES
ALL AFFECTING TEMPS. EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH HEATING OVER
THE SCNTRL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S WITH THE WARM START AND SOME INITIAL SUNSHINE. SHOULD SEE LOWER
80S ELSEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST AWAY FROM MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LK MI. OVER THE WEST...HIGHS /IN THE 70S/ WILL BE IN
THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN FALLING INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTN
BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTN AS THE SHOWERS PUSH E AND INCREASING CLOUDS
MODERATE TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH EDGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z MON.
THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE
EAST MONDAY NIGHT. A 500 MB RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. NAM SHOWS 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT
THE SAME THING. ONE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS SPED UP THE POPS
MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR
GOING TEMPERATURES.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE3 OVER THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING IN
THE WESTERN U.S. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THU AND BEYOND EXCEPT TO PUT THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE RING OF FIRE SCENARIO
FOR CONVECTION. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN...BUT NOT REAL
HIGH CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WILL BE VERY HARD TO TIME THESE AND MOST
OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE SFC
FRONTS. ECMWF SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GETTING UP TO 18C ON THU AND
18C-20C ON FRI AND SAT. WILL KEEP THE POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR WEST
HALF OF THE CWA AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE POPS AS THEY TEND TO DO IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS
WHERE THE RING OF FIRE ENDS UP STAYING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
INSTEAD AND WE END UP BEING CAPPED AND IN THE WARM SECTOR. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE.
ENDED UP GOING WITH WARMER HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS
CONSALL AND ALLBLEND LOOKED WAY TOO COLD AND THAT HAS BEEN THE TREND
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO KIWD/KCMX. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS...SO HAVE LEFT VSBYS AT VFR. ONE FINAL
ITEM OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN
THE PERIOD IF FOG DEVELOPS OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS TURNING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD
PUSH THE FOG ONSHORE AND EFFECT BOTH SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25KTS OVER SRN LK SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A 29.7 INCH LOW IN SW ONTARIO WILL SHIFT NE TO HUDSON BAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY INTO TUES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE
IN THE NRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON WED AND
LEAD TO SERLY WINDS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002-004-005-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF

000
FXUS63 KGRR 191953
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS IN STORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FOR EARLY THIS WEEK... BUT ANOTHER WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A DRY FCST
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY BUT THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z SUNDAY IN THE WRN
GRR CWFA.

THERE IS CURRENTLY A N-S ORIENTED H5 VORTICITY LOBE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MN/IA/MO THAT WILL BE DRIFTING THIS WAY ON SUNDAY
AND INTERACTING WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CAPES NEAR 2500
J/KG. DO NOT WANT TO SPOIL THE COMPLETELY POP FREE WEEKEND... BUT
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CARRY AT LEAST A SLGT CHC POP LATE
IN THE DAY IN WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA ON SUNDAY.

POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT...
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE... AND BETTER MOISTURE COMES INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WANE... PARTICULARLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT... SO A SCATTERED LINE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. WILL THEREFORE HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEST  OF
HWY 131 ON SUNDAY NIGHT


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY AND AGAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

TSRA SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AND HOLDS ONTO THE PCPN THROUGH THE DAY. A DRY COUPLE OF
DAYS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE STATE. TUESDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 70. FROST
MAY BE A PLAYER NORTH OF US-10 TUESDAY NIGHT IF TEMPS COME IN A BIT
COOLER THAN THE LOWER-MID 40S CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

A SLOW WARMING TREND THEN CONTINUES INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE AT
ODDS AS TO WHETHER A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME.
THE GFS FAVORS FROPA AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT NEAR THE STRAITS.
NOT SOLD YET ON THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE GFS KEEPS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE FRONT FROM SAGGING SOUTH.
WE/LL KEEP THE MENTION OF TSRA IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY... MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY... IN BOTH THE SOUTH FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THE NORTH FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER THE ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AND BRIEF PERIOD OF DECENT
NORTH FLOW JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT COULD CREATE SOME
ISSUES/CONCERNS FOR MARINERS FOR A TIME.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SFC RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PCT AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. FORTUNATELY THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA AT MOST OB SITES. THE FIRE DANGER WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AS TEMPS COOL OFF. SUNDAY WILL BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN
TODAY... BUT DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT... BUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF/WHERE HEAVIER
CELLS DEVELOP. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS
TIME... BUT WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE

000
FXUS63 KAPX 191942
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTH WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIR INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
BEGINNING TO FALL AS UPPER TROF ADVANCES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO INCH UPWARD IN DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE BY MORNING...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS WEST OF I-75.

THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  EXPANSIVE CU FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS TODAY IS THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY.  NO QUESTION WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUDINESS ON
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPES OVER
2000 J/KG WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.
MINIMAL LAKE INFLUENCES WITH REGARD TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...
WITH 950MB WINDS AROUND 20KTS.  IT APPEARS THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND GAYLORD DRIVEN PRIMARILY
BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.  BY
SUNDAY EVENING...ADDITIONAL SHOWER/TSTMS CHANCES MAY DEVELOP BEYOND
THIS AREA...HELPED ALONG BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY GIVEN MORE DIURNAL CU AND POSSIBLY SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY GIVEN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WINDS REMAIN SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH MORE QUIET WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. EARLY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR FEATURE OF INTEREST AS WE
BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
SAID UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
STILL NOT OVERLY THRILLED WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE WESTERN CWA...AS EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY WANE WITH TIME AS IT OUTRUNS
ITS INSTABILITY WHILE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

MAY SEE JUST THE REMNANTS OF SUCH ACTIVITY SKIRT NORTHWEST LOWER
INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
FIRING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING/
MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MAXIMIZED WITH
SOME LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME CONCERN
(SEE ABOVE) THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER...BUT THINKING REGARDING PRECIP
COVERAGE WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGHS CERTAINLY MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND THERMAL TROUGHING ENTERING THE PICTURE (H8 TEMPS
DOWN TOWARD 7C)...WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WEST TO
LIKELY LOW/MID 70S EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A RETURN TO A VERY
QUIET AND POTENTIALLY VERY WARM (NEAR RECORD SETTING?) WEATHER
PATTERN INCREASINGLY APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL COME AS DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN STATES...ALL
WHILE HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM AND NORTH OF MEANDERING
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY...
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE HISTORIC MARCH
PATTERN EXPERIENCED A FEW MONTHS AGO...ONLY THIS GO AROUND...IT`S
LATE MAY (HIGHER SUN ANGLE...ETC.). GFS REMAINS A CONSISTENT OUTLIER
BRINGING ENERGY IN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER IDEA (AND MORE
TYPICALLY SNIFF THESE PATTERNS OUT WELL IN ADVANCE)...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

WITH THIS IDEA IN MIND...WILL RUN WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
RIGHT ON THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH SUPPOSE A ROGUE SHOWER/T-STORM
THREAT MAY ENTER THE PICTURE TOWARD NEXT SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES AND OVERALL LIGHT WIND REGIME PERHAPS ALLOWS FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. OTHERWISE...HIGHS SHOULD
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT MANY SPOTS COULD EASILY MAKE A RUN AT 90+ BY NEXT
FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ONGOING VERY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. JUST FOR KICKS...CURRENT RECORDS HEADING INTO
FRI/SAT ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. WE SHALL SEE...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30KTS AT 1500FT WITH SURFACE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTHERLY WINDS...AT TIMES GUSTY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20KTS
POSSIBLE. SOME LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORE FROM PRESQUE ISLE SOUTH TOWARD ALPENA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>019-
     021>024-026>030-032>035.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...JK

000
FXUS63 KGRR 191928
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S. THE NEXT
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN BEGINNING SUNDAY
EVENING...AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SUN AFTERNOON. WE WILL
BE KEEPING THE FCST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SITTING RIGHT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE DRY SOUNDING WILL KEEP
ANY PCPN FROM FORMING TODAY.

MOISTURE DOES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOME BETTER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE ON SUN
IS THERE IS NO REAL MECHANISM TO TRIGGER STORMS THROUGH 00Z MON.
THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUN
NIGHT...AND ANY SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NW
OF THE AREA UNTIL SUN NIGHT ALSO. LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS EVEN WEAK
WITH A SSW FLOW.

WE WILL SEE BETTER MIXING EACH DAY AS WE LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGING. H850 TEMPS TODAY AROUND 15C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID 80S. H850 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUN WITH A LITTLE A
LITTLE BETTER MIXING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING MANY UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY AND AGAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

TSRA SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND HOLDS ONTO THE PCPN THROUGH THE DAY. A DRY COUPLE OF DAYS
THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE STATE. TUESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 70. FROST MAY BE
A PLAYER NORTH OF US-10 TUESDAY NIGHT IF TEMPS COME IN A BIT COOLER
THAN THE LOWER-MID 40S CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

A SLOW WARMING TREND THEN CONTINUES INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE AT
ODDS AS TO WHETHER A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME.
THE GFS FAVORS FROPA AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT NEAR THE STRAITS.
NOT SOLD YET ON THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE GFS KEEPS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE FRONT FROM SAGGING SOUTH.
WE/LL KEEP THE MENTION OF TSRA IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY... MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 131 CORRIDOR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20
KNOTS RANGE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIP EAST
OF THE STATE. THE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE WARM AIR RIDING OVER
THE COOL LAKE SHOULD KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 25 KNOTS AND WAVES BELOW 4 FEET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH RIVER
LEVELS/FLOWS RUNNING AROUND AVERAGE AND NO RAIN EXPECTED. ONCE THE
RAIN MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
BETWEEN HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN. SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
WE DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ

000
FXUS63 KDTX 191922
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
322 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE SURFACE RIDGE BUBBLE ENCAPSULATING
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. THIS IS SOMEWHAT LONGER
THAN EXPECTED AS SOLUTIONS FROM RECENT DAYS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING THE
THE MEAT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WOULD ALREADY HAVE MOVED
IN. THIS MAKES AN EASTERLY TRAJECTORY MORE OF A PLAYER FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE LAKE ERIE MARINE LAYER WILL
RELEASE...NOCTURNALLY...AND PINWHEEL NORTHWARD CLIPPING MUCH OF THE
THUMB REGION. A REFLECTION OF THE RETURN FLOW ON A REGIONAL
PERSPECTIVE HAS THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIRMASS REMAINING BACK ACROSS
ILLINOIS. AS A RESULT...FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING A SMIDGE LOWER ON
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS RESIDING IN
THE THUMB. EXPECT VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS/LOW 50S FOR
THE EASTERN THUMB.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WAVE SHEARING OUT AS IT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THIS WAVE SHOULD HOWEVER HELP BREAK DOWN THE
QUASI REX BLOCK NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND WILL SEND AN
ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE STATE ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. A FEW 90S DO NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION WHEN OBSERVING
CURRENT TEMPS UPSTREAM. SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF LAKE MI
ON SUNDAY MAY TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION AS INSTABILITY BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE. SE MI HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO
THE EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL WARRANT A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUN NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE GOOD SFC-850MB FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS FRONT AS
IT WORKS INTO LOWER MI LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT INDICATE THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION FALLING APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION ALONG
THE RESIDUAL SFC FRONT AS THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS SE MI MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
US BY MIDWEEK AS AN IMPRESSIVE 140-160 KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXPAND ACROSS ERN NOAM...SENDING TEMPS ABOVE TO POSSIBLY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SUITE INVOLVE THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF LEAD SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRACKING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO ERN CANADA AND THE
PLACEMENT OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST...WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE OVERALL ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CNTL/ERN US. THESE DIFFERENCES ADD A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS SE MI AND WHETHER OR NOT THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN WITH REGARD TO WINDS AND WAVES AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 140 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

//DISCUSSION...

A MATURE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRUCTURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR AVIATION
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH
WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KGRR 191747
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
147 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S. THE NEXT
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN BEGINNING SUNDAY
EVENING...AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SUN AFTERNOON. WE WILL
BE KEEPING THE FCST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SITTING RIGHT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE DRY SOUNDING WILL KEEP
ANY PCPN FROM FORMING TODAY.

MOISTURE DOES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOME BETTER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE ON SUN
IS THERE IS NO REAL MECHANISM TO TRIGGER STORMS THROUGH 00Z MON.
THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUN
NIGHT...AND ANY SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NW
OF THE AREA UNTIL SUN NIGHT ALSO. LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS EVEN WEAK
WITH A SSW FLOW.

WE WILL SEE BETTER MIXING EACH DAY AS WE LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGING. H850 TEMPS TODAY AROUND 15C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID 80S. H850 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUN WITH A LITTLE A
LITTLE BETTER MIXING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING MANY UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE NEXT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CONSIDERING THE BETTER AGREEMENT I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIMEFRAME FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  SOUNDINGS
BECOME MOIST WITH INSTABILITY NOTED...THUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.  THE SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH...THUS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECASTED AT THIS TIME.

WITH A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND TUE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD END UP CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN ON MON.  A WARMING TREND IS
SEEN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WED INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRAW UP A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS.  THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL ABOUT FRI...WHICH IS WHEN WE MAY SEE A FEW
STORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY... MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 131 CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20
KNOTS RANGE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIP EAST
OF THE STATE. THE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE WARM AIR RIDING OVER
THE COOL LAKE SHOULD KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 25 KNOTS AND WAVES BELOW 4 FEET.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

WE WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY ON ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE SHY OF RED FLAG
CRITERIA. WE EXPECT DEW POINTS OF AROUND 50 TO YIELD RH/S AROUND
25 TO 30 WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS EAST. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15
MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS THE WEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO...HOWEVER WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING
ANY HEADLINES THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE UP A BIT MORE ON
SUNDAY WITH MORE OF A MOIST FLOW EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH RIVER
LEVELS/FLOWS RUNNING AROUND AVERAGE AND NO RAIN EXPECTED. ONCE THE
RAIN MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
BETWEEN HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN. SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
WE DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
FIRE WEATHER...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ

000
FXUS63 KDTX 191740
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A MATURE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRUCTURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR AVIATION
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH
WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 234 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE WARM AND VERY QUIET WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL RISE
ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S
TODAY AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES AS A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS SLIDES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAX TEMPERATURES JUST UPSTREAM OF US
YESTERDAY...AND ARE OVERALL JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE SINCE
WE OVERACHIEVED YESTERDAY UNDER A SIMILAR SET-UP.

ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE FIRE WEATHER. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE WAS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY AT 100 AM. DO
EXPECT TO SEE VALUES RISE SEVERAL DEGREES LATER THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO POOL NEAR THE SURFACE.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AGAIN DURING THE VERY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING TD VALUES BACK DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S BASED ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THESE DEWPOINTS
IN COMBINATION WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES
BACK DOWN IN THE 20S TODAY...EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORES WHERE A
BREEZE OFF THE WATER WILL BRING HIGHER VALUES. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...BOTH IN SPEED AND DIRECTION. EXPECT MOST GUSTS TO
STAY NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH...WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY.

MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT DESPITE FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT TO SEE LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
STILL...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST INSTANCES.

WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW POSITIONED WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA...SOUTHERN STREAM COUNTERPART WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESS THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN. LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
WELL AS SECONDARY VORT CENTER BRING A MORE MEANINGFUL COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD ON MONDAY AS COOL AIR IS
SLOW TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY TO NEAR 80 FROM I 69 SOUTH OR SO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN USHER IN COOLER
AIR ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THAT...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WRAPS UP
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH GENERAL TROUGHING
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST THE 80S BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

MEANWHILE...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH
THE COOLEST PERIOD COMING ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...LOWS IN THE MID 60S WILL BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE
HEAT BEGINS TO STEADILY BUILD WITHIN BROAD...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME.

MARINE...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN WITH REGARD TO WINDS AND WAVES AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KMQT 191733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF TROF IN THE ROCKIES. CWA IS IN THE WARM
SECTOR E OF SFC-H85 TROF/COLD FNT AND S OF WARM FNT OVER NRN LK SUP/
ADJOINING ONTARIO. WITH DRYNESS SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS /H925 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS ARE 15 TO 25C ON THE MPX/GRB RAOBS AND THE H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSION AT GRB WAS 49C/...SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER UPR MI. DESPITE
THE CLEAR SKIES/DRY AIR AND LOCAL DECOUPLING... TEMPS ARE WELL ABV
NORMAL WITH STEADY SW FLOW AT H925 LIMITING THE OVERALL DIURNAL TEMP
DROP. SOME SHRA/TS DID IMPACT MUCH OF MN THIS PAST EVNG DESPITE
FAIRLY DRY AIR.AS SHRTWV LIFTED NNEWD WELL E OF THE MAIN TROF TO THE
W...BUT THESE ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AND STAY W OF EVEN LK SUP. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TS ARE LOCATED IN THE PLAINS CLOSER TO H85 COLD FNT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE FOCUSED ON FIRE WX. FOCUS FOR TNGT THRU
SUN SHIFTS TO SHRA/TS CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY APRCHG UPR TROF/
COLD FNT.

TDAY...CWA WL REMAIN UNDER WARM SW FLOW AS COLD FNT TO THE W SLIDES
EWD THRU MN. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO AVG ABOUT A DEGREE LOWER
THAN YDAY...VERY DEEP MIXING SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEARLY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON FRI PER
UPSTREAM OBSVD SFC HI TEMPS...WITH SOME PLACES OVER THE W HALF
SEEING THE MERCURY REACH 90. GOING FCST SHOWING THESE HIER TEMPS IN
THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FM ONTONAGON TO BARAGA LOOK ON TRACK. AREAS OVER
THE E HALF SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION OFF LK MI. SOME LK MODERATION
MAY SLIP A BIT FARTHER W INTO THE CNTRL IF FCST BACKING WINDS TO
MORE DUE S DRAGS THE LK MI MODERATION INTO THAT AREA. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION BLO FOR A DISCUSSION OF FIRE WX CONCERNS.

TNGT...WITH BLDG UPR RDG FCST OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...OPTED TO FOLLOW
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER 12Z ECMWF/00Z CNDN MODELS FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FNT...ESPECIALLY SINCE A SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES
WL INDUCE A LOW PRES TO DVLP ON THIS BNDRY OVER THE PLAINS TDAY.
THIS LO IS FCST TO MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THE 00Z NAM HAS TRENDED
IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. IN FACT...THE 12Z ECMWF/0Z CNDN MODELS
INDICATE THE BULK OF ANY PCPN WL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FNT
AND STAY W OF IWD THRU 12Z. THIS FCST IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
DRYNESS OF THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AND FCST DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
BEING FOCUSED UNDER THE SHARPER DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FNT IN MN EVEN AS LATE AS 12Z SUN. STEADY SW
FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OF
TEMP...SO MINS WL BE WELL ABV NORMAL AGAIN.

SUN...SINCE THE FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/00Z CNDN MODELS SHOW BULK OF DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC SHIFTING NEWD THRU WRN LK SUP TOWARD ONTARIO...
SUSPECT THE HIER POPS WL BE OVER THE NW CWA...WITH PCPN TENDING TO
DIMINISH AS THE FNT SHIFTS TO THE E INTO THE CENTRAL CWA BY LATE
AFTN. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING MAY OFFSET THE LOSS OF BEST
DYNAMICS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CNDN MODEL SHOWS HIER H85 DWPTS UP
TO 12C SURGING NEWD RIGHT ALONG THE FNT. HOWEVER...THIS SOMEWHAT
HIER MSTR IS STILL RELATIVELY LO COMPARED TO H85 TEMPS FCST ARND
16C. SO THE LLVLS WL STILL BE RATHER DRY PER THE MODEL FCST
SDNGS...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER
THE NW CWA...DIMINISHING TO CHC FARTHER TO THE E. RAISED FCST HI
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE E AND CNTRL AWAY FM LK MI
MODERATION TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER ARRIVAL OF COLD FNT.

SUN NGT...EXPECT COLD FNT TO PUSH THRU THE REST OF THE CWA
ACCOMPANIED BY CHC POPS AS MAIN SHRTWV/SHARPEST DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC EXITS TO THE NE AND ANY HELP FM DIURNAL HEATING WANES. SINCE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE ARPCH OF A SECOND SHRTWV FM MN...MAINTAINED
THE CHC POPS HANGING WELL BACK BEHIND THE COLD FNT AS HINTED AT BY
00Z NAM/12Z ECWMF AND SHOWN IN PREVIOUS FCST DESPITE MID LVL DRYING
IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE. IF THIS TRAILING SHRTWV IS
WEAKER...THE DRYING BEHIND THE FIRST STRONGER SHRTWV MAY END THE
POPS FASTER THAN FCST AS FCST BY THE 00Z CNDN. THE ARRIVAL OF H85
TEMPS AOB 5C OVER THE W BY 12Z MON WL BRING A RETURN OF MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

A SLOWLY TRANSITIONING WX PATTERN...WITH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
CONTINUING TO BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS.

INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE THE EXITING COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE CENTRAL AND N PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 4-5C. WITH THE COOL TEMPS WILL COME DRY
AIR...WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 30S OVER
THE W HALF. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED TO SEE VALUES CLOSER TO
30F...WHICH WOULD GIVE RH VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SLIDING E. EXPECT THE RETURN OF S WINDS...AND A LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE. WE WILL SEE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BRIEFLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP OVER THE TRADITIONAL
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 11
TO 15C WITH THE COOLEST VALUES EAST.

WENT ABOVE CONSENSUS FOR HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY...ONCE AGAIN WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE TO DOWNSLOPE AREAS. 850MB WINDS PEG OUT
BETWEEN 45 AND 60KTS...AND TEMPS JUMP UP TO 15-18C. THE 19/00Z GFS
IS ONE OF THE COOLEST SOLUTIONS.

WILL BE INTERESTING HOW THE END OF THE WORK WEEK PANS OUT...AND IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP AND STALLS OVER THE W CWA LIKE THE
19/00Z ECMWF...OR BLOWS THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OVER LOWER MI FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL NOT GET TOO FANCY
WITH THE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO KIWD/KCMX. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS...SO HAVE LEFT VSBYS AT VFR. ONE FINAL
ITEM OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN
THE PERIOD IF FOG DEVELOPS OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS TURNING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD
PUSH THE FOG ONSHORE AND EFFECT BOTH SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC TO NEBRASKA WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...FILLING SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE
HIGH TO SLOWLY EXIT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK...IN RESPONSE TO
A STRONGER LOW NEARING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOW TO OUR WEST TO MOVE OVER ONTARIO ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE EDGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

AFTER AN OVERNGT OF RELATIVELY POOR RH RECOVERY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
OF AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX PARAMETERS. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSVD YDAY...BUT DEEPER MIXING SHOWN
ESPECIALLY ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB MIGHT TAP INTO LOWER DEWPTS. IN
FACT...SFC DEWPTS WERE AS LO AS 35 TO 45 UPSTREAM YDAY AFTN IN WRN
WI/SRN MN. BLENDED MIXED DEWPT TOOL VALUES WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST
DEWPTS TO COME UP WITH READINGS DIPPING AS LO AS 43 OR SO. WITH
WINDS ALOFT TDAY ALSO NEARLY SIMILAR TO YDAY AND DEEP MIXING RELATED
TO DAYTIME HEATING... SUSTAINED WINDS AS HI AS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY. OPTED TO
ISSUE RFW FOR AN ARK FROM IWD/ONTONAGON TO BARAGA/MQT
COUNTIES...AREAS THAT SAW THE POOREST RH RECOVERY EARLY THIS MRNG
AND WHERE STRONGER WINDS/HIER DAYTIME HI TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY. WL
ISSUE RFD FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002-004-005-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KF
FIRE WEATHER...KC

000
FXUS63 KAPX 191701
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
101 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTH WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING EASTERN LAKES HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIR
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

LAKE INFLUENCES TAKING HOLD AT CHEBOYGAN AND ROGERS CITY WITH
TEMPS DOWN INTO UPPER 60S...WHILE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER ARE IN THE MID 80S. GOING FORECAST ON TRACK AND
JUST A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO CURRENT TEMPS/DWPTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

STELLAR SUMMERLIKE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS. FULL MIXING SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH
A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ON THE
12Z SOUNDINGS AND USING YESTERDAY AS A PROXY...ALSO LOWERED AFTN
DWPTS INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS. STILL QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING
/TEMPS AND RH VALUES CLEARLY WILL MEET CRITERIA/. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND LEAVE CURRENT WATCH.

OTHERWISE...JUST COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SKC CONTINUES ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF OUR STATE AND DRY AIR
THRU THE COLUMN. VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE THRU TODAY...WITH SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT TIMES WILL
PUMP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S (COOLER NEAR THE LAKES).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

QUIET...CLEAR...AND SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...
WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LYING SQUARELY BENEATH DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND SIMPLY A WARMING AIRMASS HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...WITH CURRENT READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. NEAREST SHOWERS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH
(ONTARIO) AND WEST (NORTHERN PLAINS)...WITH THE FORMER TIED TO WARM
ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST BOWING WARM FRONT...WITH THE LATER FOCUSED
ALONG CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT/REMNANT INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF SLOWLY EXITING INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS EVIDENT
BY REGIONAL 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE SERIOUS FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES...WHICH REMAIN FOREFRONT AND CENTER IN THE FORECAST
CONCERN DEPARTMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

PLENTY OF SUN...AND PLENTY OF WARMTH WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME
TODAY AS EASTERN LAKES RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...SAFELY
KEEPING ANY SHOWERS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT
DOME WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEAST...WARMING H85 TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO NEAR 16C-17C. WESTERN LAKES READINGS LAST
AFTERNOON UNDER THIS AIRMASS WERE WELL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...AND ANTICIPATED MIXING UP THROUGH H85 EASILY SUPPORTS THESE
NUMBERS TODAY ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN FAVORED SOUTH FLOW AREAS...AND MAY
SEE A FEW LOCALES MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 80S. OF COURSE...READINGS
WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE BIG WATER SHORELINES
OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND NORTH OF THE MIGHTY MAC.

NO DOUBT...ABOVE WARMTH AND RECENT/ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT JUST HOW ELEVATED REMAINS A FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE.
MODELS SIMPLY REMAIN TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...FURTHER CONFIRMED
BY LATE AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWING NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN
LAKES DEWPOINTS 5 OR MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ANTICIPATED.
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN OUR SOURCE
REGION THROUGH TODAY. CONTINUE TO FULLY SUPPORT NOW MULTI-DAY TRENDS
OF CUTTING TODAY`S DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE
NUMBERS. AIRMASS HAS BECOME A LITTLE STAGNANT AND WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM NOW NEARLY COMPLETE GREEN-UP...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE READINGS DROPPING AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY (WHEN SOME AREAS
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S). STILL...SEE LITTLE REASON DEWPOINTS
WILL NOT REMAIN IN THE 40S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD CRITICAL RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER. WHILE 2 OF THE 3 RED FLAG
PARAMETERS A NEAR CERTAINTY...THE THIRD...WINDS...STILL LOOK TO FALL
A BIT SHORT. PRESSURE FIELDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BAGGY ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WITH TIGHTEST GRADIENT FOCUSING WELL TO OUR WEST. WINDS
LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED FRIDAY BASED OFF BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROPERTIES...WHEN ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED RED FLAG
CRITERIA GUSTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON (WHEN MIXING
DEPTH WAS MAXIMIZED)...NEEDED WIND GUSTS WERE NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION
BASED OFF FULL PERUSAL OF OBSERVED AND GUIDANCE TRENDS...BUT INITIAL
THOUGHT IS TO HANDLE THE INHERITED WATCH MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...
KEEPING IT INTACT AND WAITING FOR FOREST SERVICE/DNR COLLABORATION
LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE POTENTIALLY PULLING THE TRIGGER ON A
WARNING. SORRY DAY CREW :).

RH RECOVERY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUICK TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES "COOL"
BACK INTO THE 50S. OTHERWISE...A MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT AS
EASTERN LAKES RIDGING REMAINS STUBBORN TO YIELD...KEEPING UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST OVER
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR THE NORTHWOODS ON
SUNDAY AS 582 DAM HEIGHTS HOLD OVER LWR MICHIGAN. PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STEADILY SLIDES EAST AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. BAND OF MOISTURE
ALIGNED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RATHER NARROW AND
LIMITED. GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY DRY AIRMASS OVER MICHIGAN AS OF
LATE...IT MAY BE INITIALLY A CHALLENGE TO OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR
DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...AND CERTAINLY
THINK THIS IS REASONABLE THANKS TO THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND RIDE NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
BY MONDAY...FINALLY MERGING WITH OUR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
FRONT WILL ENTER OUR CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STALL OVER
OUR CWA ON MONDAY AS THE DAY HEATS UP...AND WILL LIKELY NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...STILL EXPECT ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUE THRU MONDAY AND END FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE RATHER WEAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN LACK OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AT THAT
TIME...ALTHOUGH SHOWALTER INDICES SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT AS THE 850 MB THETA E RIDGE LEANS INTO OUR WRN
CWA. SHEAR IS FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY PROVIDED US WITH GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. OVERALL...HAVE DELAYED EASTWARD PROGRESS OF POPS IN AND
OUT OF OUR CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON
MONDAY THANKS TO COLD FROPA...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN ERN UPR
MICHIGAN TO THE MID 70S NEAR SAGINAW BAY.

TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY)
OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HEIGHTS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LAST SEVERAL RUNS
OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER IMPRESSIVE WARM-UP COMING
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 591 DAM HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO
LWR MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY...WOW! THIS COULD VERY WELL TRANSLATE TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...WILL BE A
BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE ON FORECAST HIGHS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. ALSO...
APPEARS OVERALL WX THRU THIS POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE WILL BE
PRECIP-FREE...NOT NECESSARILY A WELCOME SCENARIO GIVEN THE GENERALLY
DRY WX WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30KTS AT 1500FT WITH SURFACE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTHERLY WINDS...AT TIMES GUSTY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH HEADLINE CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LAKE BREEZE EFFECT SHOW UP IN SOME ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS MORE SHOREWARD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>019-
     021>024-026>030-032>035.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...MB

000
FXUS63 KAPX 191400
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTH WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING EASTERN LAKES HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIR
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

STELLAR SUMMERLIKE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS. FULL MIXING SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH
A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ON THE
12Z SOUNDINGS AND USING YESTERDAY AS A PROXY...ALSO LOWERED AFTN
DWPTS INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS. STILL QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING
/TEMPS AND RH VALUES CLEARLY WILL MEET CRITERIA/. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND LEAVE CURRENT WATCH.

OTHERWISE...JUST COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SKC CONTINUES ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF OUR STATE AND DRY AIR
THRU THE COLUMN. VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE THRU TODAY...WITH SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT TIMES WILL
PUMP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S (COOLER NEAR THE LAKES).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

QUIET...CLEAR...AND SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...
WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LYING SQUARELY BENEATH DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND SIMPLY A WARMING AIRMASS HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...WITH CURRENT READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. NEAREST SHOWERS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH
(ONTARIO) AND WEST (NORTHERN PLAINS)...WITH THE FORMER TIED TO WARM
ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST BOWING WARM FRONT...WITH THE LATER FOCUSED
ALONG CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT/REMNANT INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF SLOWLY EXITING INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS EVIDENT
BY REGIONAL 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE SERIOUS FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES...WHICH REMAIN FOREFRONT AND CENTER IN THE FORECAST
CONCERN DEPARTMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

PLENTY OF SUN...AND PLENTY OF WARMTH WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME
TODAY AS EASTERN LAKES RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...SAFELY
KEEPING ANY SHOWERS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT
DOME WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEAST...WARMING H85 TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO NEAR 16C-17C. WESTERN LAKES READINGS LAST
AFTERNOON UNDER THIS AIRMASS WERE WELL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...AND ANTICIPATED MIXING UP THROUGH H85 EASILY SUPPORTS THESE
NUMBERS TODAY ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN FAVORED SOUTH FLOW AREAS...AND MAY
SEE A FEW LOCALES MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 80S. OF COURSE...READINGS
WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE BIG WATER SHORELINES
OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND NORTH OF THE MIGHTY MAC.

NO DOUBT...ABOVE WARMTH AND RECENT/ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT JUST HOW ELEVATED REMAINS A FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE.
MODELS SIMPLY REMAIN TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...FURTHER CONFIRMED
BY LATE AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWING NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN
LAKES DEWPOINTS 5 OR MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ANTICIPATED.
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN OUR SOURCE
REGION THROUGH TODAY. CONTINUE TO FULLY SUPPORT NOW MULTI-DAY TRENDS
OF CUTTING TODAY`S DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE
NUMBERS. AIRMASS HAS BECOME A LITTLE STAGNANT AND WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM NOW NEARLY COMPLETE GREEN-UP...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE READINGS DROPPING AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY (WHEN SOME AREAS
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S). STILL...SEE LITTLE REASON DEWPOINTS
WILL NOT REMAIN IN THE 40S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD CRITICAL RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER. WHILE 2 OF THE 3 RED FLAG
PARAMETERS A NEAR CERTAINTY...THE THIRD...WINDS...STILL LOOK TO FALL
A BIT SHORT. PRESSURE FIELDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BAGGY ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WITH TIGHTEST GRADIENT FOCUSING WELL TO OUR WEST. WINDS
LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED FRIDAY BASED OFF BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROPERTIES...WHEN ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED RED FLAG
CRITERIA GUSTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON (WHEN MIXING
DEPTH WAS MAXIMIZED)...NEEDED WIND GUSTS WERE NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION
BASED OFF FULL PERUSAL OF OBSERVED AND GUIDANCE TRENDS...BUT INITIAL
THOUGHT IS TO HANDLE THE INHERITED WATCH MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...
KEEPING IT INTACT AND WAITING FOR FOREST SERVICE/DNR COLLABORATION
LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE POTENTIALLY PULLING THE TRIGGER ON A
WARNING. SORRY DAY CREW :).

RH RECOVERY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUICK TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES "COOL"
BACK INTO THE 50S. OTHERWISE...A MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT AS
EASTERN LAKES RIDGING REMAINS STUBBORN TO YIELD...KEEPING UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST OVER
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR THE NORTHWOODS ON
SUNDAY AS 582 DAM HEIGHTS HOLD OVER LWR MICHIGAN. PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STEADILY SLIDES EAST AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. BAND OF MOISTURE
ALIGNED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RATHER NARROW AND
LIMITED. GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY DRY AIRMASS OVER MICHIGAN AS OF
LATE...IT MAY BE INITIALLY A CHALLENGE TO OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR
DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...AND CERTAINLY
THINK THIS IS REASONABLE THANKS TO THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND RIDE NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
BY MONDAY...FINALLY MERGING WITH OUR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
FRONT WILL ENTER OUR CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STALL OVER
OUR CWA ON MONDAY AS THE DAY HEATS UP...AND WILL LIKELY NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...STILL EXPECT ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUE THRU MONDAY AND END FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE RATHER WEAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN LACK OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AT THAT
TIME...ALTHOUGH SHOWALTER INDICES SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT AS THE 850 MB THETA E RIDGE LEANS INTO OUR WRN
CWA. SHEAR IS FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY PROVIDED US WITH GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. OVERALL...HAVE DELAYED EASTWARD PROGRESS OF POPS IN AND
OUT OF OUR CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON
MONDAY THANKS TO COLD FROPA...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN ERN UPR
MICHIGAN TO THE MID 70S NEAR SAGINAW BAY.

TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY)
OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HEIGHTS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LAST SEVERAL RUNS
OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER IMPRESSIVE WARM-UP COMING
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 591 DAM HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO
LWR MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY...WOW! THIS COULD VERY WELL TRANSLATE TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...WILL BE A
BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE ON FORECAST HIGHS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. ALSO...
APPEARS OVERALL WX THRU THIS POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE WILL BE
PRECIP-FREE...NOT NECESSARILY A WELCOME SCENARIO GIVEN THE GENERALLY
DRY WX WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS WILL PERSIST
THRU MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING BRINGS SOME GUSTS
TO 15 TO 20 KTS TO THE SURFACE. LLWS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE WITH SUNSET.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTHERLY WINDS...AT TIMES GUSTY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH HEADLINE CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LAKE BREEZE EFFECT SHOW UP IN SOME ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS MORE SHOREWARD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>019-
     021>024-026>030-032>035.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB

000
FXUS63 KMQT 191153
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
753 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF TROF IN THE ROCKIES. CWA IS IN THE WARM
SECTOR E OF SFC-H85 TROF/COLD FNT AND S OF WARM FNT OVER NRN LK SUP/
ADJOINING ONTARIO. WITH DRYNESS SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS /H925 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS ARE 15 TO 25C ON THE MPX/GRB RAOBS AND THE H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSION AT GRB WAS 49C/...SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER UPR MI. DESPITE
THE CLEAR SKIES/DRY AIR AND LOCAL DECOUPLING... TEMPS ARE WELL ABV
NORMAL WITH STEADY SW FLOW AT H925 LIMITING THE OVERALL DIURNAL TEMP
DROP. SOME SHRA/TS DID IMPACT MUCH OF MN THIS PAST EVNG DESPITE
FAIRLY DRY AIR.AS SHRTWV LIFTED NNEWD WELL E OF THE MAIN TROF TO THE
W...BUT THESE ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AND STAY W OF EVEN LK SUP. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TS ARE LOCATED IN THE PLAINS CLOSER TO H85 COLD FNT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE FOCUSED ON FIRE WX. FOCUS FOR TNGT THRU
SUN SHIFTS TO SHRA/TS CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY APRCHG UPR TROF/
COLD FNT.

TDAY...CWA WL REMAIN UNDER WARM SW FLOW AS COLD FNT TO THE W SLIDES
EWD THRU MN. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO AVG ABOUT A DEGREE LOWER
THAN YDAY...VERY DEEP MIXING SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEARLY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON FRI PER
UPSTREAM OBSVD SFC HI TEMPS...WITH SOME PLACES OVER THE W HALF
SEEING THE MERCURY REACH 90. GOING FCST SHOWING THESE HIER TEMPS IN
THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FM ONTONAGON TO BARAGA LOOK ON TRACK. AREAS OVER
THE E HALF SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION OFF LK MI. SOME LK MODERATION
MAY SLIP A BIT FARTHER W INTO THE CNTRL IF FCST BACKING WINDS TO
MORE DUE S DRAGS THE LK MI MODERATION INTO THAT AREA. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION BLO FOR A DISCUSSION OF FIRE WX CONCERNS.

TNGT...WITH BLDG UPR RDG FCST OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...OPTED TO FOLLOW
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER 12Z ECMWF/00Z CNDN MODELS FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FNT...ESPECIALLY SINCE A SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES
WL INDUCE A LOW PRES TO DVLP ON THIS BNDRY OVER THE PLAINS TDAY.
THIS LO IS FCST TO MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THE 00Z NAM HAS TRENDED
IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. IN FACT...THE 12Z ECMWF/0Z CNDN MODELS
INDICATE THE BULK OF ANY PCPN WL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FNT
AND STAY W OF IWD THRU 12Z. THIS FCST IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
DRYNESS OF THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AND FCST DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
BEING FOCUSED UNDER THE SHARPER DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FNT IN MN EVEN AS LATE AS 12Z SUN. STEADY SW
FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OF
TEMP...SO MINS WL BE WELL ABV NORMAL AGAIN.

SUN...SINCE THE FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/00Z CNDN MODELS SHOW BULK OF DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC SHIFTING NEWD THRU WRN LK SUP TOWARD ONTARIO...
SUSPECT THE HIER POPS WL BE OVER THE NW CWA...WITH PCPN TENDING TO
DIMINISH AS THE FNT SHIFTS TO THE E INTO THE CENTRAL CWA BY LATE
AFTN. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING MAY OFFSET THE LOSS OF BEST
DYNAMICS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CNDN MODEL SHOWS HIER H85 DWPTS UP
TO 12C SURGING NEWD RIGHT ALONG THE FNT. HOWEVER...THIS SOMEWHAT
HIER MSTR IS STILL RELATIVELY LO COMPARED TO H85 TEMPS FCST ARND
16C. SO THE LLVLS WL STILL BE RATHER DRY PER THE MODEL FCST
SDNGS...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER
THE NW CWA...DIMINISHING TO CHC FARTHER TO THE E. RAISED FCST HI
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE E AND CNTRL AWAY FM LK MI
MODERATION TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER ARRIVAL OF COLD FNT.

SUN NGT...EXPECT COLD FNT TO PUSH THRU THE REST OF THE CWA
ACCOMPANIED BY CHC POPS AS MAIN SHRTWV/SHARPEST DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC EXITS TO THE NE AND ANY HELP FM DIURNAL HEATING WANES. SINCE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE ARPCH OF A SECOND SHRTWV FM MN...MAINTAINED
THE CHC POPS HANGING WELL BACK BEHIND THE COLD FNT AS HINTED AT BY
00Z NAM/12Z ECWMF AND SHOWN IN PREVIOUS FCST DESPITE MID LVL DRYING
IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE. IF THIS TRAILING SHRTWV IS
WEAKER...THE DRYING BEHIND THE FIRST STRONGER SHRTWV MAY END THE
POPS FASTER THAN FCST AS FCST BY THE 00Z CNDN. THE ARRIVAL OF H85
TEMPS AOB 5C OVER THE W BY 12Z MON WL BRING A RETURN OF MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

A SLOWLY TRANSITIONING WX PATTERN...WITH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
CONTINUING TO BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS.

INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE THE EXITING COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE CENTRAL AND N PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 4-5C. WITH THE COOL TEMPS WILL COME DRY
AIR...WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 30S OVER
THE W HALF. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED TO SEE VALUES CLOSER TO
30F...WHICH WOULD GIVE RH VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SLIDING E. EXPECT THE RETURN OF S WINDS...AND A LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE. WE WILL SEE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BRIEFLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP OVER THE TRADITIONAL
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 11
TO 15C WITH THE COOLEST VALUES EAST.

WENT ABOVE CONSENSUS FOR HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY...ONCE AGAIN WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE TO DOWNSLOPE AREAS. 850MB WINDS PEG OUT
BETWEEN 45 AND 60KTS...AND TEMPS JUMP UP TO 15-18C. THE 19/00Z GFS
IS ONE OF THE COOLEST SOLUTIONS.

WILL BE INTERESTING HOW THE END OF THE WORK WEEK PANS OUT...AND IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP AND STALLS OVER THE W CWA LIKE THE
19/00Z ECMWF...OR BLOWS THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OVER LOWER MI FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL NOT GET TOO FANCY
WITH THE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...WITH HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY INVADING FROM THE
WEST AND LOWERING LOWER THE NEXT 24HRS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN STORY...WITH 30-40KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT SAW AND IWD GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR TS
AT IWD JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...BUT TOO SMALL OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS QUITE YET. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC TO NEBRASKA WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...FILLING SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE
HIGH TO SLOWLY EXIT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK...IN RESPONSE TO
A STRONGER LOW NEARING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOW TO OUR WEST TO MOVE OVER ONTARIO ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE EDGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

AFTER AN OVERNGT OF RELATIVELY POOR RH RECOVERY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
OF AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX PARAMETERS. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSVD YDAY...BUT DEEPER MIXING SHOWN
ESPECIALLY ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB MIGHT TAP INTO LOWER DEWPTS. IN
FACT...SFC DEWPTS WERE AS LO AS 35 TO 45 UPSTREAM YDAY AFTN IN WRN
WI/SRN MN. BLENDED MIXED DEWPT TOOL VALUES WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST
DEWPTS TO COME UP WITH READINGS DIPPING AS LO AS 43 OR SO. WITH
WINDS ALOFT TDAY ALSO NEARLY SIMILAR TO YDAY AND DEEP MIXING RELATED
TO DAYTIME HEATING... SUSTAINED WINDS AS HI AS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY. OPTED TO
ISSUE RFW FOR AN ARK FROM IWD/ONTONAGON TO BARAGA/MQT
COUNTIES...AREAS THAT SAW THE POOREST RH RECOVERY EARLY THIS MRNG
AND WHERE STRONGER WINDS/HIER DAYTIME HI TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY. WL
ISSUE RFD FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
FIRE WEATHER...KC

000
FXUS63 KAPX 191102
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
702 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTH WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING EASTERN LAKES HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIR
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SKC CONTINUES ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF OUR STATE AND DRY AIR
THRU THE COLUMN. VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE THRU TODAY...WITH SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT TIMES WILL
PUMP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S (COOLER NEAR THE LAKES).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

QUIET...CLEAR...AND SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...
WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LYING SQUARELY BENEATH DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND SIMPLY A WARMING AIRMASS HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...WITH CURRENT READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. NEAREST SHOWERS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH
(ONTARIO) AND WEST (NORTHERN PLAINS)...WITH THE FORMER TIED TO WARM
ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST BOWING WARM FRONT...WITH THE LATER FOCUSED
ALONG CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT/REMNANT INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF SLOWLY EXITING INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS EVIDENT
BY REGIONAL 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE SERIOUS FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES...WHICH REMAIN FOREFRONT AND CENTER IN THE FORECAST
CONCERN DEPARTMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

PLENTY OF SUN...AND PLENTY OF WARMTH WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME
TODAY AS EASTERN LAKES RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...SAFELY
KEEPING ANY SHOWERS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT
DOME WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEAST...WARMING H85 TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO NEAR 16C-17C. WESTERN LAKES READINGS LAST
AFTERNOON UNDER THIS AIRMASS WERE WELL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...AND ANTICIPATED MIXING UP THROUGH H85 EASILY SUPPORTS THESE
NUMBERS TODAY ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN FAVORED SOUTH FLOW AREAS...AND MAY
SEE A FEW LOCALES MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 80S. OF COURSE...READINGS
WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE BIG WATER SHORELINES
OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND NORTH OF THE MIGHTY MAC.

NO DOUBT...ABOVE WARMTH AND RECENT/ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT JUST HOW ELEVATED REMAINS A FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE.
MODELS SIMPLY REMAIN TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...FURTHER CONFIRMED
BY LATE AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWING NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN
LAKES DEWPOINTS 5 OR MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ANTICIPATED.
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN OUR SOURCE
REGION THROUGH TODAY. CONTINUE TO FULLY SUPPORT NOW MULTI-DAY TRENDS
OF CUTTING TODAY`S DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE
NUMBERS. AIRMASS HAS BECOME A LITTLE STAGNANT AND WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM NOW NEARLY COMPLETE GREEN-UP...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE READINGS DROPPING AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY (WHEN SOME AREAS
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S). STILL...SEE LITTLE REASON DEWPOINTS
WILL NOT REMAIN IN THE 40S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD CRITICAL RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER. WHILE 2 OF THE 3 RED FLAG
PARAMETERS A NEAR CERTAINTY...THE THIRD...WINDS...STILL LOOK TO FALL
A BIT SHORT. PRESSURE FIELDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BAGGY ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WITH TIGHTEST GRADIENT FOCUSING WELL TO OUR WEST. WINDS
LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED FRIDAY BASED OFF BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROPERTIES...WHEN ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED RED FLAG
CRITERIA GUSTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON (WHEN MIXING
DEPTH WAS MAXIMIZED)...NEEDED WIND GUSTS WERE NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION
BASED OFF FULL PERUSAL OF OBSERVED AND GUIDANCE TRENDS...BUT INITIAL
THOUGHT IS TO HANDLE THE INHERITED WATCH MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...
KEEPING IT INTACT AND WAITING FOR FOREST SERVICE/DNR COLLABORATION
LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE POTENTIALLY PULLING THE TRIGGER ON A
WARNING. SORRY DAY CREW :).

RH RECOVERY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUICK TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES "COOL"
BACK INTO THE 50S. OTHERWISE...A MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT AS
EASTERN LAKES RIDGING REMAINS STUBBORN TO YIELD...KEEPING UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST OVER
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR THE NORTHWOODS ON
SUNDAY AS 582 DAM HEIGHTS HOLD OVER LWR MICHIGAN. PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STEADILY SLIDES EAST AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. BAND OF MOISTURE
ALIGNED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RATHER NARROW AND
LIMITED. GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY DRY AIRMASS OVER MICHIGAN AS OF
LATE...IT MAY BE INITIALLY A CHALLENGE TO OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR
DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...AND CERTAINLY
THINK THIS IS REASONABLE THANKS TO THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND RIDE NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
BY MONDAY...FINALLY MERGING WITH OUR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
FRONT WILL ENTER OUR CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STALL OVER
OUR CWA ON MONDAY AS THE DAY HEATS UP...AND WILL LIKELY NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...STILL EXPECT ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUE THRU MONDAY AND END FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE RATHER WEAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN LACK OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AT THAT
TIME...ALTHOUGH SHOWALTER INDICES SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT AS THE 850 MB THETA E RIDGE LEANS INTO OUR WRN
CWA. SHEAR IS FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY PROVIDED US WITH GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. OVERALL...HAVE DELAYED EASTWARD PROGRESS OF POPS IN AND
OUT OF OUR CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON
MONDAY THANKS TO COLD FROPA...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN ERN UPR
MICHIGAN TO THE MID 70S NEAR SAGINAW BAY.

TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY)
OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HEIGHTS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LAST SEVERAL RUNS
OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER IMPRESSIVE WARM-UP COMING
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 591 DAM HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO
LWR MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY...WOW! THIS COULD VERY WELL TRANSLATE TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...WILL BE A
BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE ON FORECAST HIGHS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. ALSO...
APPEARS OVERALL WX THRU THIS POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE WILL BE
PRECIP-FREE...NOT NECESSARILY A WELCOME SCENARIO GIVEN THE GENERALLY
DRY WX WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS WILL PERSIST
THRU MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING BRINGS SOME GUSTS
TO 15 TO 20 KTS TO THE SURFACE. LLWS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE WITH SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTHERLY WINDS...AT TIMES GUSTY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH HEADLINE CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LAKE BREEZE EFFECT SHOW UP IN SOME ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS MORE SHOREWARD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>019-021>024-
     026>030-032>035.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB

000
FXUS63 KGRR 191044
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
644 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S. THE NEXT
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN BEGINNING SUNDAY
EVENING...AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SUN AFTERNOON. WE WILL
BE KEEPING THE FCST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SITTING RIGHT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE DRY SOUNDING WILL KEEP
ANY PCPN FROM FORMING TODAY.

MOISTURE DOES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOME BETTER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE ON SUN
IS THERE IS NO REAL MECHANISM TO TRIGGER STORMS THROUGH 00Z MON.
THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUN
NIGHT...AND ANY SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NW
OF THE AREA UNTIL SUN NIGHT ALSO. LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS EVEN WEAK
WITH A SSW FLOW.

WE WILL SEE BETTER MIXING EACH DAY AS WE LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGING. H850 TEMPS TODAY AROUND 15C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID 80S. H850 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUN WITH A LITTLE A
LITTLE BETTER MIXING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING MANY UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE NEXT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CONSIDERING THE BETTER AGREEMENT I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIMEFRAME FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  SOUNDINGS
BECOME MOIST WITH INSTABILITY NOTED...THUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.  THE SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH...THUS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECASTED AT THIS TIME.

WITH A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND TUE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD END UP CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN ON MON.  A WARMING TREND IS
SEEN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WED INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRAW UP A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS.  THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL ABOUT FRI...WHICH IS WHEN WE MAY SEE A FEW
STORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...TAF SITES WILL BE SEEING VFR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKEST INLAND
TODAY RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. KMKG MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20
KNOTS RANGE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIP EAST
OF THE STATE. THE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE WARM AIR RIDING OVER
THE COOL LAKE SHOULD KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 25 KNOTS AND WAVES BELOW 4 FEET.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

WE WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY ON ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE SHY OF RED FLAG
CRITERIA. WE EXPECT DEW POINTS OF AROUND 50 TO YIELD RH/S AROUND
25 TO 30 WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS EAST. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15
MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS THE WEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO...HOWEVER WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING
ANY HEADLINES THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE UP A BIT MORE ON
SUNDAY WITH MORE OF A MOIST FLOW EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH RIVER
LEVELS/FLOWS RUNNING AROUND AVERAGE AND NO RAIN EXPECTED. ONCE THE
RAIN MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
BETWEEN HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN. SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
WE DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
FIRE WEATHER...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ

000
FXUS63 KDTX 191040
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
640 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

STRONG RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR...WITH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON PICKING UP FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BUT REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 234 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE WARM AND VERY QUIET WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL RISE
ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S
TODAY AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES AS A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS SLIDES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAX TEMPERATURES JUST UPSTREAM OF US
YESTERDAY...AND ARE OVERALL JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE SINCE
WE OVERACHIEVED YESTERDAY UNDER A SIMILAR SET-UP.

ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE FIRE WEATHER. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE WAS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY AT 100 AM. DO
EXPECT TO SEE VALUES RISE SEVERAL DEGREES LATER THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO POOL NEAR THE SURFACE.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AGAIN DURING THE VERY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING TD VALUES BACK DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S BASED ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THESE DEWPOINTS
IN COMBINATION WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES
BACK DOWN IN THE 20S TODAY...EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORES WHERE A
BREEZE OFF THE WATER WILL BRING HIGHER VALUES. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...BOTH IN SPEED AND DIRECTION. EXPECT MOST GUSTS TO
STAY NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH...WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY.

MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT DESPITE FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT TO SEE LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
STILL...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST INSTANCES.

WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW POSITIONED WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA...SOUTHERN STREAM COUNTERPART WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESS THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN. LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
WELL AS SECONDARY VORT CENTER BRING A MORE MEANINGFUL COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD ON MONDAY AS COOL AIR IS
SLOW TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY TO NEAR 80 FROM I 69 SOUTH OR SO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN USHER IN COOLER
AIR ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THAT...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WRAPS UP
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH GENERAL TROUGHING
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST THE 80S BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

MEANWHILE...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH
THE COOLEST PERIOD COMING ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...LOWS IN THE MID 60S WILL BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE
HEAT BEGINS TO STEADILY BUILD WITHIN BROAD...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME.

MARINE...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN WITH REGARD TO WINDS AND WAVES AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KMQT 190909
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
509 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF TROF IN THE ROCKIES. CWA IS IN THE WARM
SECTOR E OF SFC-H85 TROF/COLD FNT AND S OF WARM FNT OVER NRN LK SUP/
ADJOINING ONTARIO. WITH DRYNESS SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS /H925 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS ARE 15 TO 25C ON THE MPX/GRB RAOBS AND THE H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSION AT GRB WAS 49C/...SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER UPR MI. DESPITE
THE CLEAR SKIES/DRY AIR AND LOCAL DECOUPLING... TEMPS ARE WELL ABV
NORMAL WITH STEADY SW FLOW AT H925 LIMITING THE OVERALL DIURNAL TEMP
DROP. SOME SHRA/TS DID IMPACT MUCH OF MN THIS PAST EVNG DESPITE
FAIRLY DRY AIR.AS SHRTWV LIFTED NNEWD WELL E OF THE MAIN TROF TO THE
W...BUT THESE ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AND STAY W OF EVEN LK SUP. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TS ARE LOCATED IN THE PLAINS CLOSER TO H85 COLD FNT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE FOCUSED ON FIRE WX. FOCUS FOR TNGT THRU
SUN SHIFTS TO SHRA/TS CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY APRCHG UPR TROF/
COLD FNT.

TDAY...CWA WL REMAIN UNDER WARM SW FLOW AS COLD FNT TO THE W SLIDES
EWD THRU MN. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO AVG ABOUT A DEGREE LOWER
THAN YDAY...VERY DEEP MIXING SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEARLY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON FRI PER
UPSTREAM OBSVD SFC HI TEMPS...WITH SOME PLACES OVER THE W HALF
SEEING THE MERCURY REACH 90. GOING FCST SHOWING THESE HIER TEMPS IN
THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FM ONTONAGON TO BARAGA LOOK ON TRACK. AREAS OVER
THE E HALF SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION OFF LK MI. SOME LK MODERATION
MAY SLIP A BIT FARTHER W INTO THE CNTRL IF FCST BACKING WINDS TO
MORE DUE S DRAGS THE LK MI MODERATION INTO THAT AREA. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION BLO FOR A DISCUSSION OF FIRE WX CONCERNS.

TNGT...WITH BLDG UPR RDG FCST OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...OPTED TO FOLLOW
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER 12Z ECMWF/00Z CNDN MODELS FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FNT...ESPECIALLY SINCE A SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES
WL INDUCE A LOW PRES TO DVLP ON THIS BNDRY OVER THE PLAINS TDAY.
THIS LO IS FCST TO MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THE 00Z NAM HAS TRENDED
IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. IN FACT...THE 12Z ECMWF/0Z CNDN MODELS
INDICATE THE BULK OF ANY PCPN WL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FNT
AND STAY W OF IWD THRU 12Z. THIS FCST IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
DRYNESS OF THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AND FCST DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
BEING FOCUSED UNDER THE SHARPER DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FNT IN MN EVEN AS LATE AS 12Z SUN. STEADY SW
FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OF
TEMP...SO MINS WL BE WELL ABV NORMAL AGAIN.

SUN...SINCE THE FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/00Z CNDN MODELS SHOW BULK OF DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC SHIFTING NEWD THRU WRN LK SUP TOWARD ONTARIO...
SUSPECT THE HIER POPS WL BE OVER THE NW CWA...WITH PCPN TENDING TO
DIMINISH AS THE FNT SHIFTS TO THE E INTO THE CENTRAL CWA BY LATE
AFTN. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING MAY OFFSET THE LOSS OF BEST
DYNAMICS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CNDN MODEL SHOWS HIER H85 DWPTS UP
TO 12C SURGING NEWD RIGHT ALONG THE FNT. HOWEVER...THIS SOMEWHAT
HIER MSTR IS STILL RELATIVELY LO COMPARED TO H85 TEMPS FCST ARND
16C. SO THE LLVLS WL STILL BE RATHER DRY PER THE MODEL FCST
SDNGS...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER
THE NW CWA...DIMINISHING TO CHC FARTHER TO THE E. RAISED FCST HI
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE E AND CNTRL AWAY FM LK MI
MODERATION TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER ARRIVAL OF COLD FNT.

SUN NGT...EXPECT COLD FNT TO PUSH THRU THE REST OF THE CWA
ACCOMPANIED BY CHC POPS AS MAIN SHRTWV/SHARPEST DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC EXITS TO THE NE AND ANY HELP FM DIURNAL HEATING WANES. SINCE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE ARPCH OF A SECOND SHRTWV FM MN...MAINTAINED
THE CHC POPS HANGING WELL BACK BEHIND THE COLD FNT AS HINTED AT BY
00Z NAM/12Z ECWMF AND SHOWN IN PREVIOUS FCST DESPITE MID LVL DRYING
IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE. IF THIS TRAILING SHRTWV IS
WEAKER...THE DRYING BEHIND THE FIRST STRONGER SHRTWV MAY END THE
POPS FASTER THAN FCST AS FCST BY THE 00Z CNDN. THE ARRIVAL OF H85
TEMPS AOB 5C OVER THE W BY 12Z MON WL BRING A RETURN OF MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

A SLOWLY TRANSITIONING WX PATTERN...WITH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
CONTINUING TO BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS.

INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE THE EXITING COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE CENTRAL AND N PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 4-5C. WITH THE COOL TEMPS WILL COME DRY
AIR...WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 30S OVER
THE W HALF. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED TO SEE VALUES CLOSER TO
30F...WHICH WOULD GIVE RH VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SLIDING E. EXPECT THE RETURN OF S WINDS...AND A LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE. WE WILL SEE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BRIEFLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP OVER THE TRADITIONAL
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 11
TO 15C WITH THE COOLEST VALUES EAST.

WENT ABOVE CONSENSUS FOR HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY...ONCE AGAIN WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE TO DOWNSLOPE AREAS. 850MB WINDS PEG OUT
BETWEEN 45 AND 60KTS...AND TEMPS JUMP UP TO 15-18C. THE 19/00Z GFS
IS ONE OF THE COOLEST SOLUTIONS.

WILL BE INTERESTING HOW THE END OF THE WORK WEEK PANS OUT...AND IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP AND STALLS OVER THE W CWA LIKE THE
19/00Z ECMWF...OR BLOWS THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OVER LOWER MI FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL NOT GET TOO FANCY
WITH THE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERN EDGE OF LLJ
CENTERED OVER NE MN WILL CREATE LLWS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KTS
OVER THE LOWEST 1KFT TONIGHT...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT SHEAR AT IWD.
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS MIXING IS
ESTABLISHED...BUT THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT ALL
SITES...ESPECIALLY AT IWD AND SAW. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THICKENS
LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT IWD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH/COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE AREA...THOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL AFTER
06Z. LLWS ALSO REEMERGES AT SAW AS THE LLJ REDEVELOPS FURTHER EAST
THAN TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC TO NEBRASKA WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...FILLING SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE
HIGH TO SLOWLY EXIT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK...IN RESPONSE TO
A STRONGER LOW NEARING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOW TO OUR WEST TO MOVE OVER ONTARIO ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE EDGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

AFTER AN OVERNGT OF RELATIVELY POOR RH RECOVERY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
OF AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX PARAMETERS. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSVD YDAY...BUT DEEPER MIXING SHOWN
ESPECIALLY ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB MIGHT TAP INTO LOWER DEWPTS. IN
FACT...SFC DEWPTS WERE AS LO AS 35 TO 45 UPSTREAM YDAY AFTN IN WRN
WI/SRN MN. BLENDED MIXED DEWPT TOOL VALUES WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST
DEWPTS TO COME UP WITH READINGS DIPPING AS LO AS 43 OR SO. WITH
WINDS ALOFT TDAY ALSO NEARLY SIMILAR TO YDAY AND DEEP MIXING RELATED
TO DAYTIME HEATING... SUSTAINED WINDS AS HI AS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY. OPTED TO
ISSUE RFW FOR AN ARK FROM IWD/ONTONAGON TO BARAGA/MQT
COUNTIES...AREAS THAT SAW THE POOREST RH RECOVERY EARLY THIS MRNG
AND WHERE STRONGER WINDS/HIER DAYTIME HI TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY. WL
ISSUE RFD FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KF
FIRE WEATHER...KC

000
FXUS63 KGRR 190716
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S. THE NEXT
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN BEGINNING SUNDAY
EVENING...AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SUN AFTERNOON. WE WILL
BE KEEPING THE FCST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SITTING RIGHT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE DRY SOUNDING WILL KEEP
ANY PCPN FROM FORMING TODAY.

MOISTURE DOES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOME BETTER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE ON SUN
IS THERE IS NO REAL MECHANISM TO TRIGGER STORMS THROUGH 00Z MON.
THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUN
NIGHT...AND ANY SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NW
OF THE AREA UNTIL SUN NIGHT ALSO. LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS EVEN WEAK
WITH A SSW FLOW.

WE WILL SEE BETTER MIXING EACH DAY AS WE LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGING. H850 TEMPS TODAY AROUND 15C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID 80S. H850 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUN WITH A LITTLE A
LITTLE BETTER MIXING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING MANY UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE NEXT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CONSIDERING THE BETTER AGREEMENT I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIMEFRAME FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  SOUNDINGS
BECOME MOIST WITH INSTABILITY NOTED...THUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.  THE SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH...THUS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECASTED AT THIS TIME.

WITH A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND TUE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD END UP CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN ON MON.  A WARMING TREND IS
SEEN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WED INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRAW UP A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS.  THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL ABOUT FRI...WHICH IS WHEN WE MAY SEE A FEW
STORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

VERY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE ENTIRE TIME. ONLY CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED WILL BE SOME THIN CIRRUS...AND MAYBE ISOLATED
CUMULUS CLOUDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE THE HIGHEST OVER THE WRN TAF SITES WHERE THE
BETTER GRADIENT EXISTS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT SW AT KMKG IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE. WINDS WILL DROP
OFF AROUND SUNSET ON SAT AND BECOME SE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20
KNOTS RANGE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIP EAST
OF THE STATE. THE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE WARM AIR RIDING OVER
THE COOL LAKE SHOULD KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 25 KNOTS AND WAVES BELOW 4 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

WE WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY ON ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE SHY OF RED FLAG
CRITERIA. WE EXPECT DEW POINTS OF AROUND 50 TO YIELD RH/S AROUND
25 TO 30 WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS EAST. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15
MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS THE WEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO...HOWEVER WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING
ANY HEADLINES THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE UP A BIT MORE ON
SUNDAY WITH MORE OF A MOIST FLOW EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH RIVER
LEVELS/FLOWS RUNNING AROUND AVERAGE AND NO RAIN EXPECTED. ONCE THE
RAIN MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
BETWEEN HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN. SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
WE DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...NJJ
FIRE WEATHER...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ

000
FXUS63 KAPX 190638
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
238 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTH WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING EASTERN LAKES HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIR
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

QUIET...CLEAR...AND SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...
WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LYING SQUARELY BENEATH DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND SIMPLY A WARMING AIRMASS HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...WITH CURRENT READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. NEAREST SHOWERS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH
(ONTARIO) AND WEST (NORTHERN PLAINS)...WITH THE FORMER TIED TO WARM
ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST BOWING WARM FRONT...WITH THE LATER FOCUSED
ALONG CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT/REMNANT INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF SLOWLY EXITING INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS EVIDENT
BY REGIONAL 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE SERIOUS FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES...WHICH REMAIN FOREFRONT AND CENTER IN THE FORECAST
CONCERN DEPARTMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

PLENTY OF SUN...AND PLENTY OF WARMTH WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME
TODAY AS EASTERN LAKES RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...SAFELY
KEEPING ANY SHOWERS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT
DOME WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEAST...WARMING H85 TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO NEAR 16C-17C. WESTERN LAKES READINGS LAST
AFTERNOON UNDER THIS AIRMASS WERE WELL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...AND ANTICIPATED MIXING UP THROUGH H85 EASILY SUPPORTS THESE
NUMBERS TODAY ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN FAVORED SOUTH FLOW AREAS...AND MAY
SEE A FEW LOCALES MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 80S. OF COURSE...READINGS
WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE BIG WATER SHORELINES
OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND NORTH OF THE MIGHTY MAC.

NO DOUBT...ABOVE WARMTH AND RECENT/ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT JUST HOW ELEVATED REMAINS A FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE.
MODELS SIMPLY REMAIN TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...FURTHER CONFIRMED
BY LATE AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWING NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN
LAKES DEWPOINTS 5 OR MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ANTICIPATED.
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN OUR SOURCE
REGION THROUGH TODAY. CONTINUE TO FULLY SUPPORT NOW MULTI-DAY TRENDS
OF CUTTING TODAY`S DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE
NUMBERS. AIRMASS HAS BECOME A LITTLE STAGNANT AND WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM NOW NEARLY COMPLETE GREEN-UP...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE READINGS DROPPING AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY (WHEN SOME AREAS
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S). STILL...SEE LITTLE REASON DEWPOINTS
WILL NOT REMAIN IN THE 40S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD CRITICAL RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER. WHILE 2 OF THE 3 RED FLAG
PARAMETERS A NEAR CERTAINTY...THE THIRD...WINDS...STILL LOOK TO FALL
A BIT SHORT. PRESSURE FIELDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BAGGY ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WITH TIGHTEST GRADIENT FOCUSING WELL TO OUR WEST. WINDS
LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED FRIDAY BASED OFF BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROPERTIES...WHEN ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED RED FLAG
CRITERIA GUSTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON (WHEN MIXING
DEPTH WAS MAXIMIZED)...NEEDED WIND GUSTS WERE NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION
BASED OFF FULL PERUSAL OF OBSERVED AND GUIDANCE TRENDS...BUT INITIAL
THOUGHT IS TO HANDLE THE INHERITED WATCH MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...
KEEPING IT INTACT AND WAITING FOR FOREST SERVICE/DNR COLLABORATION
LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE POTENTIALLY PULLING THE TRIGGER ON A
WARNING. SORRY DAY CREW :).

RH RECOVERY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUICK TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES "COOL"
BACK INTO THE 50S. OTHERWISE...A MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT AS
EASTERN LAKES RIDGING REMAINS STUBBORN TO YIELD...KEEPING UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST OVER
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR THE NORTHWOODS ON
SUNDAY AS 582 DAM HEIGHTS HOLD OVER LWR MICHIGAN. PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STEADILY SLIDES EAST AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. BAND OF MOISTURE
ALIGNED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RATHER NARROW AND
LIMITED. GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY DRY AIRMASS OVER MICHIGAN AS OF
LATE...IT MAY BE INITIALLY A CHALLENGE TO OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR
DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...AND CERTAINLY
THINK THIS IS REASONABLE THANKS TO THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND RIDE NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
BY MONDAY...FINALLY MERGING WITH OUR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
FRONT WILL ENTER OUR CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STALL OVER
OUR CWA ON MONDAY AS THE DAY HEATS UP...AND WILL LIKELY NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...STILL EXPECT ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUE THRU MONDAY AND END FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE RATHER WEAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN LACK OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AT THAT
TIME...ALTHOUGH SHOWALTER INDICES SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT AS THE 850 MB THETA E RIDGE LEANS INTO OUR WRN
CWA. SHEAR IS FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY PROVIDED US WITH GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. OVERALL...HAVE DELAYED EASTWARD PROGRESS OF POPS IN AND
OUT OF OUR CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON
MONDAY THANKS TO COLD FROPA...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN ERN UPR
MICHIGAN TO THE MID 70S NEAR SAGINAW BAY.

TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY)
OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HEIGHTS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LAST SEVERAL RUNS
OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER IMPRESSIVE WARM-UP COMING
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 591 DAM HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO
LWR MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY...WOW! THIS COULD VERY WELL TRANSLATE TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...WILL BE A
BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE ON FORECAST HIGHS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. ALSO...
APPEARS OVERALL WX THRU THIS POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE WILL BE
PRECIP-FREE...NOT NECESSARILY A WELCOME SCENARIO GIVEN THE GENERALLY
DRY WX WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1025 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD (AND THE WEEKEND FOR
THAT MATTER). DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET OFF THE SFC
TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED. WINDS MAY START A
LITTLE GUSTY EARLY ON...AS EARLY MIXING TAPS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
CONTINUED HEATING/MIXING MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTHERLY WINDS...AT TIMES GUSTY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH HEADLINE CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LAKE BREEZE EFFECT SHOW UP IN SOME ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS MORE SHOREWARD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ016>019-021>024-026>030-032>035.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...MB

000
FXUS63 KDTX 190634
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
234 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE WARM AND VERY QUIET WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL RISE
ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S
TODAY AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES AS A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS SLIDES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAX TEMPERATURES JUST UPSTREAM OF US
YESTERDAY...AND ARE OVERALL JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE SINCE
WE OVERACHIEVED YESTERDAY UNDER A SIMILAR SET-UP.

ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE FIRE WEATHER. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE WAS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY AT 100 AM. DO
EXPECT TO SEE VALUES RISE SEVERAL DEGREES LATER THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO POOL NEAR THE SURFACE.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AGAIN DURING THE VERY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING TD VALUES BACK DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S BASED ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THESE DEWPOINTS
IN COMBINATION WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES
BACK DOWN IN THE 20S TODAY...EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORES WHERE A
BREEZE OFF THE WATER WILL BRING HIGHER VALUES. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...BOTH IN SPEED AND DIRECTION. EXPECT MOST GUSTS TO
STAY NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH...WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY.

MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT DESPITE FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT TO SEE LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
STILL...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST INSTANCES.

WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW POSITIONED WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA...SOUTHERN STREAM COUNTERPART WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESS THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN. LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
WELL AS SECONDARY VORT CENTER BRING A MORE MEANINGFUL COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD ON MONDAY AS COOL AIR IS
SLOW TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY TO NEAR 80 FROM I 69 SOUTH OR SO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN USHER IN COOLER
AIR ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THAT...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WRAPS UP
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH GENERAL TROUGHING
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST THE 80S BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

MEANWHILE...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH
THE COOLEST PERIOD COMING ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...LOWS IN THE MID 60S WILL BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE
HEAT BEGINS TO STEADILY BUILD WITHIN BROAD...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME.

&&

.MARINE...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN WITH REGARD TO WINDS AND WAVES AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1200 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

//DISCUSSION...

WESTERN EXTENSION OF AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS
WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING
THIS TIME.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KMQT 190537
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

WARM FRONT HAS BLOWN BY TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO NOW CWA
WILL ENJOY WARM SECTOR LIVING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. AFTER MORNING SHOWERS/TSRA AND CLOUDS DEPARTED...SKIES
HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AND IT HAS REALLY WARMED UP...ESPECIALLY
WEST. A FEW SITES OVR ONTONAGON AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON ZONES HAVE
REACHED UPR 80S WITH KENTON RAWS AT 90 DEGREES AS OF 19Z. DESPITE
THE WARMTH...DWPNTS HAVE STAYED STEADY AND NOT MIXED OUT AS MUCH AS
THEY COULD HAVE AND WINDS HAVE REMAINED GUSTY BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONG. COOLEST READINGS OVR THE EAST...BUT DESPITE THE CLOUDS
STAYING THROUGH EARLY AFTN...KERY IS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 70S.

PRETTY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD...OTHER THAN FIRE WX CONCERNS WHICH
WILL BE DISCUSSED IN FIRE WX DISCUSSION BLO. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYING UP AND DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
JET AT 950-900MB 35-45 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS QUITE WARM DESPITE DRY
AIR IN LOW-LEVELS. PREVIOUS FCST MIN TEMPS OF MID 50S INTERIOR EAST
TO LOW-MID 60S OVR PORTIONS OF WEST/NORTHWEST CWA SEEM ON TRACK.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SPRING THUS FAR FOR
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE REALLY WARM START AND LACK OF ANY
APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL ALLOW AREA TO WARM
VERY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. LIKELY WILL SEE LOWER 80S ALREADY
APPEARING ON SFC OBS BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TODAY BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN MINNESOTA/WICONSIN AND
KNOWN LOCAL EFFECTS OVR UPR MICHIGAN...TEMPS AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE READINGS FM THIS AFTN SEEM APPROPRIATE. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY...SO EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING AOA 20 MPH AT TIMES. COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR ALONG SHORE OF
LK MICHIGAN AND ALSO OVR PORTIONS OF KEWEENAW AND MARQUETTE AS SFC
WINDS FM NAM/REGIONAL GEM INDICATE SLIGHT BACKING TO MORE SSE IN
AFTN. PROBABLY WILL SEE SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS/SWINGS ALONG
THE SHORE AS OCCURRED TODAY OVR THESE SAME AREAS.

POPS/WX/SKY NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE ON SATURDAY. SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH OVR NORTHERN PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW FOR CLOUDS/POPS TO BEGIN AFFECTING FAR WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE THE DAY OVR CWA WILL BE FREE OF
POPS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN THE SERN U.S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z SUN. THIS
TROUGH HEADS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SAT NIGHT AND THIS
LINGERS INTO MONDAY OVER THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME
THING FOR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE. STILL NOT REAL EXCITED
ABOUT CHANCES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT AS FRONT IS DIEING AS
IT COMES THROUGH. MAJORITY OF DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON...BECAUSE OF THE DROUGHT WE HAVE BEEN
IN...STILL DO NOT WANT TO HAVE HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. DROUGHTS
TEND TO BE PERSISTENT AND DO NOT WANT TO GET HOPES UP ABOUT THE RAIN
CHANCES UNLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD AND LONG LIVED EVENT WHICH
THIS WILL NOT BE. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR WEATHER OR TEMPERATURES.
HUNG ON TO SOME POPS FOR MONDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY LEAVES THE
AREA.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ERN U.S. 12Z TUE
WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. THIS TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL BUILD UP A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH
THIS RIDGE HANGING AROUND THE AREA THROUGH FRI. MANUAL PROGS FOLLOW
CLOSELY TO THE 00Z ECMWF WITH A FRONT REMAINING OFF TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA FOR THU AND FRI. THIS WILL MEAN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WE GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR THU THROUGH FRI. ECMWF SHOWING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF 18C-20C OVER THE AREA WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST FOR FRI. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW 90S OCCURRED ON
FRI INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND IN SOME PLACES. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP TO
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMER ONES FOR THU AND FRI AS
PATTERN LOOKS VERY WARM. CONSALL AND ALLBLEND WERE TOO COLD FOR BOTH
DAYS AND ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A WARM SIGNAL FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS
AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH IT. DID REMOVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR WED AND WED NIGHT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST WHICH IS CLOSER TO A
WARM FRONT. REMOVED POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST FOR THU AND THU
NIGHT FOR THIS REASON AS WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERN EDGE OF LLJ
CENTERED OVER NE MN WILL CREATE LLWS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KTS
OVER THE LOWEST 1KFT TONIGHT...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT SHEAR AT IWD.
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS MIXING IS
ESTABLISHED...BUT THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT ALL
SITES...ESPECIALLY AT IWD AND SAW. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THICKENS
LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT IWD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH/COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE AREA...THOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL AFTER
06Z. LLWS ALSO REEMERGES AT SAW AS THE LLJ REDEVELOPS FURTHER EAST
THAN TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN OVER
NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING NORTH INTO ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012
TEMPS WARMED CONSIDERABLY TODAY WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 DEGREES
OVR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. DWPNTS/RH VALUES HAVE NOT CRASHED AS THERE
WAS STREAM OF HIGHER H85 DPWNTS ALOFT WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE LIMITED
DEEP MIXING. DWPNTS MAY STILL FALL OFF OVR THE EAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BUT THIS AREA DID RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL INTO EARLY AFTN WITH
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.20 INCH IN SOME AREAS. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY STILL
IN STORE FOR TONIGHT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEADS TO ANOTHER DAY OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ON SATURDAY. LATEST THINKING IS
THAT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN WILL SEE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ARE CERTAINLY THERE AND HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL AT OR JUST
BLO 25 PCT IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. SOUTH WINDS LOOK MARGINAL THOUGH
/SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH/ AS SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY /AROUND 8 MB FM IWD TO SSM/.
LOW-LEVEL JET IS SIMILAR AS WELL WITH MORNING VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
DECREASING TO 20-25 KTS BY AFTN AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ENHANCED
MORE IN THE MORNING BY THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

KEPT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH UP FOR ALL UPPER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING PRETTY MARGINAL FOR HUMIDITY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS...
BUT WILL LET THE WATCH GO ON FOR NOW SINCE IT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
CLEAR CUT SITUATION EVEN OVR THE WESTERN HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...07
FIRE WEATHER...JLA